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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856716", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856716", "teamId": "245", "team": "Texas A&M Aggies", "side": "away", "opponent": "Missouri Tigers", "conferenceReportKey": "Texas A&M", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870971", "name": "Marcel Reed", "position": "QB", "workload": "85/149, 908 YDS, 6 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/4870971/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295969", "name": "Brady Hart", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/9, 36 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5295969/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4870934", "name": "Rueben Owens II", "position": "RB", "workload": "70 CAR, 291 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/4870934/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158975", "name": "KJ Edwards", "position": "RB", "workload": "28 CAR, 181 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5158975/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5199850", "name": "Carsyn Baker", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 101 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5199850/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4685383", "name": "Isaiah Horton", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 248 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079345", "name": "Mario Craver", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 235 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079326", "name": "Terry Bussey", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 92 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5141358", "name": "Kiotti Armstrong", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 62 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4801276", "name": "Houston Thomas", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 22 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/athletes/4801276/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Terry Bussey", "id": "5079326", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "4 CAR, 10 YDS, 1 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 92 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Mario Craver", "id": "5079345", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 6 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "23 REC, 235 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "confirmed": [ "Terry Bussey" ], "conditional": [ "Mario Craver" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Terry Bussey", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 23.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "Primary": [ 18.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "TightenUpON": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ] } }, { "name": "Mario Craver", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 23.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "Primary": [ 18.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "TightenUpON": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "overlapSensitivity": -3, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5079326", "name": "Terry Bussey", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/43", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 14, "rushingYards": 97, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.928999900817871, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 179, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 1, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 182, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.5, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 92, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079326/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "245" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079345", "name": "Mario Craver", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/44", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "344", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.3329999446868896, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 368, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 11, "rushingYards": 81, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 7.363999843597412, "receptions": 52, "receivingYards": 825, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 6, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 23, "receivingYards": 235, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079345/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "344", "245" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4685383", "name": "Isaiah Horton", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/49", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2390", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 56, "receivingYards": 616, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "333", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 35, "receivingYards": 430, "receivingTD": 8, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 248, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4685383/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2390", "333" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5139057", "name": "Ashton Bethel-Roman", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/761", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 44, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5139057/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 20, "receivingYards": 459, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5139057/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 32, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5139057/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "245" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141358", "name": "Kiotti Armstrong", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/50", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "245", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "245", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 62, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "245" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Kiotti Armstrong", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Mario Craver" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/245/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/245/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856716", "teamId": "142", "team": "Missouri Tigers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Texas A&M Aggies", "conferenceReportKey": "Missouri", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141684", "name": "Austin Simmons", "position": "QB", "workload": "93/137, 1287 YDS, 13 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5141684/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5195300", "name": "Matt Zollers", "position": "QB", "workload": "8/13, 87 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5195300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4921116", "name": "Jamal Roberts", "position": "RB", "workload": "113 CAR, 606 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5225880", "name": "Xai'Shaun Edwards", "position": "RB", "workload": "33 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5333436", "name": "Preston Hatfield", "position": "RB", "workload": "4 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5333436/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4870858", "name": "Cayden Lee", "position": "WR", "workload": "35 REC, 522 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/4870858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141582", "name": "Donovan Olugbode", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 407 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5141582/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5195617", "name": "Shaun Terry II", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/5195617/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870869", "name": "Brett Norfleet", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/athletes/4870869/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Malae Fonoti", "id": "5225213", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "3 CAR, 18 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Ahmad Hardy", "id": "5197065", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Gavin Hoffman", "id": "5149008", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "DaMarion Fowlkes", "id": "5156379", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 35 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Brett Norfleet", "id": "4870869", "position": "TE", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "8 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Hardy is an established 2025 lead back still OUT after offseason injury. Roberts already leads 2026 with 113 carries/606 yards; current scoring already contains that redistribution. Retain separate authorized human -3, with statistical incremental effect unestimated, not another rate-based downgrade.", "confirmed": [ "Ahmad Hardy" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Ahmad Hardy", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 26.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "Primary": [ 21.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "TightenUpON": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Hardy is an established 2025 lead back still OUT after offseason injury. Roberts already leads 2026 with 113 carries/606 yards; current scoring already contains that redistribution. Retain separate authorized human -3, with statistical incremental effect unestimated, not another rate-based downgrade.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5197065", "name": "Ahmad Hardy", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/29", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2433", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 237, "rushingYards": 1351, "rushingTD": 13, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.699999809265137, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 72, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5197065/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 241, "rushingYards": 1560, "rushingTD": 16, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.4730000495910645, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 22, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5197065/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "142", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5197065/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2433", "142" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4921116", "name": "Jamal Roberts", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/35", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 52, "rushingYards": 214, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.114999771118164, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 9, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 113, "rushingYards": 697, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.168000221252441, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 139, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 113, "rushingYards": 606, "rushingTD": 6, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.400000095367432, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 76, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4921116/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "142" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5225880", "name": "Xai'Shaun Edwards", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/36", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2277", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 6, "rushingYards": 21, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2277", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 194, "rushingYards": 1019, "rushingTD": 12, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.252999782562256, "receptions": 18, "receivingYards": 106, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 33, "rushingYards": 124, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.799999952316284, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 14, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5225880/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2277" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Ahmad Hardy", "year": 2026, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/142/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/142/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "https://mutigers.com/news/2026/07/24/three-tigers-selected-to-medias-preseason-all-sec-team", "https://mutigers.com/sports/football/roster/season/2026/player/ahmad-hardy", "https://mutigers.com/sports/football/roster/season/2026/player/jamal-roberts" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Fonoti three carries versus Roberts113 and Edwards33; Fowlkes two catches versus Lee35/Olugbode26. No additional material role trigger.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.227272727272727, 28.272727272727273 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.227272727272727, 25.272727272727273 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 18.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401856823", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.583333333333336, 18.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32.4, 16.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.75, 30.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 37.4, 28.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 24.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 24.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.583333333333336, "pa": 18.916666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401756849", "401756879", "401756888", "401756904", "401756910", "401756916", "401756925", "401756937", "401756943", "401756951", "401756954", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856773", "401856810", "401856793", "401856804", "401856820" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.75, "pa": 30.833333333333332, "margin": -9.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401756883", "401754638", "401756899", "401756908", "401756909", "401756928", "401756935", "401756938", "401756947", "401756948", "401756968" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.4, "pa": 28.8, "margin": 8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401856791", "401856802", "401856881", "401856822" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.6, 27.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34.0, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.583333333333336, "pa": 18.916666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401756849", "401756879", "401756888", "401756904", "401756910", "401756916", "401756925", "401756937", "401756943", "401756951", "401756954", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856773", "401856810", "401856793", "401856804", "401856820" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.75, "pa": 30.833333333333332, "margin": -9.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401756883", "401754638", "401756899", "401756908", "401756909", "401756928", "401756935", "401756938", "401756947", "401756948", "401756968" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.4, "pa": 28.8, "margin": 8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401856791", "401856802", "401856881", "401856822" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.6, 27.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34.0, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856823", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856823", "teamId": "12", "team": "Arizona Wildcats", "side": "away", "opponent": "West Virginia Mountaineers", "conferenceReportKey": "Arizona", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4801717", "name": "Noah Fifita", "position": "QB", "workload": "124/168, 1415 YDS, 13 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4801717/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158407", "name": "Sawyer Anderson", "position": "QB", "workload": "6/11, 84 YDS, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/5158407/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4899361", "name": "Kedrick Reescano", "position": "RB", "workload": "61 CAR, 218 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4899361/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4612624", "name": "Antwan Roberts Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 162 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4612624/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4804879", "name": "Quincy Craig", "position": "RB", "workload": "22 CAR, 142 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4804879/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4891198", "name": "Tre Spivey", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 314 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5217700", "name": "Giovanni Richardson", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 187 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5198318", "name": "Isaiah Mizell", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 176 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4709804", "name": "Cole Rusk", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 86 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4709804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4816108", "name": "Tyler Powell", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 51 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4816108/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Giovanni Richardson", "id": "5217700", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "16 REC, 187 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Chris Hunter III", "id": "5093837", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 3 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "13 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Cole Rusk", "id": "4709804", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "6 REC, 86 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Ismail Mahdi", "id": "5084798", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "12 CAR, 72 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 5 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "confirmed": [ "Giovanni Richardson", "Chris Hunter III" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "Primary": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "TightenUpON": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } }, { "name": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "Primary": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "TightenUpON": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -6, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "overlapSensitivity": -3, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5217700", "name": "Giovanni Richardson", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/121", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 2, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 271, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 187, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5217700/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5093837", "name": "Chris Hunter III", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/119", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 7, "receptions": 35, "receivingYards": 323, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5093837/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 25, "receivingYards": 351, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5093837/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 3, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 155, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5093837/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4891198", "name": "Tre Spivey", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/128", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2306", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 160, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 6, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3, "receptions": 21, "receivingYards": 359, "receivingTD": 6, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 8, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4, "receptions": 22, "receivingYards": 314, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4891198/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2306", "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5198318", "name": "Isaiah Mizell", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/129", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 39, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 176, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5198318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5121936", "name": "Brandon Phelps", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/130", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5121936/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 82, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5121936/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 138, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5121936/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5214651", "name": "Caleb Smith", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/131", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5214651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "12", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5214651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 9, "receivingYards": 125, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5214651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "12" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4870754", "name": "Rodney Gallagher III", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/762", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "277", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 16, "rushingYards": 51, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.187999963760376, "receptions": 21, "receivingYards": 229, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870754/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "277", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 14, "rushingYards": 83, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.928999900817871, "receptions": 28, "receivingYards": 243, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870754/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "12", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 66, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870754/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "277" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Cole Rusk" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Isaiah Mizell", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Brandon Phelps", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Caleb Smith", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Caleb Smith", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Cole Rusk" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/12/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Cole Rusk", "id": "4709804", "status": "out", "reason": "Six catches/86 yards versus Tyler Powell eight/51; receiving-TE allocation is split. Retain conditional primary-option sensitivity; overlaps existing two-WR changes.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/122", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "4816108", "name": "Tyler Powell", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 51 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/12/athletes/4816108/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/780" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -6, "overlap": "Shared passing-drive/target uncertainty retained; no automatic extra joint deduction.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } } } ] } }, { "eventId": "401856823", "teamId": "277", "team": "West Virginia Mountaineers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Arizona Wildcats", "conferenceReportKey": "West Virginia", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079465", "name": "Michael Hawkins Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "47/83, 836 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5079465/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164314", "name": "Scotty Fox Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/4, 27 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5164314/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4918103", "name": "Cam Cook", "position": "RB", "workload": "119 CAR, 652 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/4918103/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5161022", "name": "Amari Latimer", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5161022/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5384821", "name": "Martavious Boswell", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 31 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5384821/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5082584", "name": "DJ Epps", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 393 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5082584/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4683719", "name": "Jaden Bray", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 152 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/4683719/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150460", "name": "John Neider", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 71 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5150460/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5142265", "name": "Ryan Ward", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/5142265/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4898018", "name": "Josh Sapp", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 3 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/athletes/4898018/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Armoni Weaver-Bomar", "id": "5141754", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "3 CAR, 14 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Andre Devine", "id": "5197058", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Cam Ball", "id": "4890881", "position": "TE", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "John Neider", "id": "5150460", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "6 REC, 71 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "West Virginia Mountaineers: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/277/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/277/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Weaver-Bomar three catches versus Epps14/Bray9/Neider6 and only three carries; secondary rotation, no established main replacement.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401856824", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.333333333333332, 23.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 32.4, 17.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 14.166666666666666, 33.333333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 37.25, 19.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.333333333333332, "pa": 23.583333333333332, "margin": 0.75, "event_ids": [ "401756848", "401756886", "401754640", "401756906", "401756915", "401756917", "401756928", "401756936", "401756946", "401756953", "401756959", "401756963" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 17.6, "margin": 14.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401856790", "401856800", "401856815", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.166666666666666, "pa": 33.333333333333336, "margin": -19.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401752824", "401756900", "401756907", "401756910", "401756920", "401756926", "401756933", "401756940", "401756952", "401756959", "401756966" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 37.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 17.5, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401856782", "401856803", "401856881" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.833333333333336, 18.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.075, 27.425 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.721666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.0, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.333333333333332, "pa": 23.583333333333332, "margin": 0.75, "event_ids": [ "401756848", "401756886", "401754640", "401756906", "401756915", "401756917", "401756928", "401756936", "401756946", "401756953", "401756959", "401756963" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 17.6, "margin": 14.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401856790", "401856800", "401856815", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.166666666666666, "pa": 33.333333333333336, "margin": -19.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401752824", "401756900", "401756907", "401756910", "401756920", "401756926", "401756933", "401756940", "401756952", "401756959", "401756966" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 37.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 17.5, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401856782", "401856803", "401856881" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.833333333333336, 18.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.075, 27.425 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.721666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.0, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856824", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856824", "teamId": "2116", "team": "UCF Knights", "side": "away", "opponent": "Oklahoma State Cowboys", "conferenceReportKey": "UCF", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5085337", "name": "Keyone Jenkins", "position": "QB", "workload": "53/76, 541 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4911929", "name": "Alonza Barnett III", "position": "QB", "workload": "31/49, 344 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5136049", "name": "Duke Watson", "position": "RB", "workload": "49 CAR, 404 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5136049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078144", "name": "Landen Chambers", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 138 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5078144/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141668", "name": "Taevion Swint", "position": "RB", "workload": "25 CAR, 135 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5141668/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5153889", "name": "Josh Derry", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5153889/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5142600", "name": "Waden Charles", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 169 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5142600/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079386", "name": "Ric'Darious Farmer", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 95 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5079386/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5148656", "name": "Caden Piening", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/5148656/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4922996", "name": "Dylan Wade", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 53 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/athletes/4922996/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Caleb Rollerson", "id": "5221393", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "4 REC, 38 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Alonza Barnett III", "id": "4911929", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "31/49, 344 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "18 CAR, 22 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Dante Carr", "id": "5236675", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Duane Thomas Jr.", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Dylan Burk", "id": "5296835", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Dylan Wade", "id": "4922996", "position": "TE", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "8 REC, 53 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Jonathan Bibbs", "id": "5193217", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, -1 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "5 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Josh Derry", "id": "5153889", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "17 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Keyone Jenkins", "id": "5085337", "position": "QB", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "53/76, 541 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "21 CAR, 28 YDS, 3 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Barnett has 49 attempts but is OUT; Jenkins has already assumed greater passing volume (76 attempts) and is PROBABLE. Carr has no verified material game workload and no additional deduction. Jenkins' 19/20 TCU performance and work with QB coach McKenzie Milton verify current team experience, not equivalence to Barnett. If Jenkins is later ruled out a new named Annett scenario is required; do not presume PROBABLE means unavailable.", "confirmed": [ "Alonza Barnett III" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "Primary": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "TightenUpON": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Barnett has 49 attempts but is OUT; Jenkins has already assumed greater passing volume (76 attempts) and is PROBABLE. Carr has no verified material game workload and no additional deduction. Jenkins' 19/20 TCU performance and work with QB coach McKenzie Milton verify current team experience, not equivalence to Barnett. If Jenkins is later ruled out a new named Annett scenario is required; do not presume PROBABLE means unavailable.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4911929", "name": "Alonza Barnett III", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/63", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 355, "passingYards": 2598, "passingTD": 26, "interceptions": 4, "sacks": 34, "completionPct": 60, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.317999839782715, "rushAttempts": 135, "rushingYards": 442, "rushingTD": 7, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.2739999294281006, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 322, "passingYards": 2533, "passingTD": 21, "interceptions": 8, "sacks": 18, "completionPct": 59.9379997253418, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.866000175476074, "rushAttempts": 115, "rushingYards": 544, "rushingTD": 14, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.730000019073486, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2116", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 49, "passingYards": 344, "passingTD": 2, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 4, "completionPct": 63.29999923706055, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7, "rushAttempts": 18, "rushingYards": 22, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.2000000476837158, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4911929/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "256" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5085337", "name": "Keyone Jenkins", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/68", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2229", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 304, "passingYards": 2557, "passingTD": 22, "interceptions": 8, "sacks": 15, "completionPct": 61.84199905395508, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.41100025177002, "rushAttempts": 75, "rushingYards": 130, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.7330000400543213, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2229", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 249, "passingYards": 1693, "passingTD": 9, "interceptions": 5, "sacks": 13, "completionPct": 63.051998138427734, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.798999786376953, "rushAttempts": 50, "rushingYards": 128, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.559999942779541, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2116", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 76, "passingYards": 541, "passingTD": 4, "interceptions": 2, "sacks": 5, "completionPct": 69.69999694824219, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.099999904632568, "rushAttempts": 21, "rushingYards": 28, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.2999999523162842, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5085337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2229" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5154248", "name": "Kaleb Annett", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/71", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "68", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5154248/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "68", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5154248/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2116", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 3, "passingYards": 6, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 66.69999694824219, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 2, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 9, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5154248/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "68" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Kaleb Annett", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Kaleb Annett", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2116/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2116/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "https://ucfknights.com/news/2026/10/6/football-set-for-second-straight-top-25-road-tilt-at-18-oklahoma-state", "https://ucfknights.com/news/2026/1/4/2026-football-transfer-portal-central" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Rollerson four catches/38 yards trails Derry17/Charles14/Farmer9 and both main TEs; no additional main-role deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856824", "teamId": "197", "team": "Oklahoma State Cowboys", "side": "home", "opponent": "UCF Knights", "conferenceReportKey": "Oklahoma State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5219834", "name": "Drew Mestemaker", "position": "QB", "workload": "95/141, 1271 YDS, 11 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5219834/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5291690", "name": "Broderick Vehrs", "position": "QB", "workload": "6/6, 37 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5291690/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5258016", "name": "Caleb Hawkins", "position": "RB", "workload": "83 CAR, 441 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5258016/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4875861", "name": "Ayo Adeyi", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 159 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/4875861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5224505", "name": "Tre Page III", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5224505/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5148787", "name": "Wyatt Young", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 410 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5148787/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083747", "name": "Justin Bowick", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 344 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5083747/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5148822", "name": "Chris Barnes", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 145 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5148822/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5228041", "name": "Carson Kolb", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 30 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5228041/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083966", "name": "Morgan McPhaul", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 12 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/athletes/5083966/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Wyatt Young", "id": "5148787", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 10 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "22 REC, 410 YDS, 3 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Oklahoma State Cowboys: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/197/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/197/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858256", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 19.25, 24.5 ], "current_rates": [ 24.0, 19.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 35.083333333333336, 24.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 38.4, 13.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "isolated_score": [ 14.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 14.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.25, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -5.25, "event_ids": [ "401754523", "401754527", "401754639", "401754640", "401754552", "401754371", "401754573", "401754575", "401754588", "401754596", "401754600", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 19.5, "margin": 4.5, "event_ids": [ "401856766", "401858218", "401858229", "401858250" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": 10.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401754529", "401754638", "401754547", "401754550", "401754559", "401754568", "401754574", "401754582", "401754597", "401754601", "401754611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 25.0, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401856790", "401858225", "401858236", "401858245" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5916666666666672, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.25, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -5.25, "event_ids": [ "401754523", "401754527", "401754639", "401754640", "401754552", "401754371", "401754573", "401754575", "401754588", "401754596", "401754600", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 19.5, "margin": 4.5, "event_ids": [ "401856766", "401858218", "401858229", "401858250" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": 10.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401754529", "401754638", "401754547", "401754550", "401754559", "401754568", "401754574", "401754582", "401754597", "401754601", "401754611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 25.0, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401856790", "401858225", "401858236", "401858245" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5916666666666672, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858256", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858256", "teamId": "153", "team": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "side": "away", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "conferenceReportKey": "North Carolina", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4592532", "name": "Billy Edwards Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "61/106, 820 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/4592532/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5145396", "name": "Miles O'Neill", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/6, 22 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5145396/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5008017", "name": "Benjamin Hall", "position": "RB", "workload": "43 CAR, 251 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5008017/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5228607", "name": "Demon June", "position": "RB", "workload": "31 CAR, 128 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5228607/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5161835", "name": "Jaylen McGill", "position": "RB", "workload": "17 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5161835/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079687", "name": "Jordan Shipp", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 273 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5079687/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159039", "name": "C.J. Sadler", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 87 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5077266", "name": "Trech Kekahuna", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 71 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4871039", "name": "Jelani Thurman", "position": "TE", "workload": "16 REC, 233 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870709", "name": "Shamar Easter", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/athletes/4870709/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Jordan Washington", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Keeyun Chapman", "id": "5212608", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Dream Rashad", "id": "5212620", "position": "TE", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jordan Shipp", "id": "5079687", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "20 REC, 273 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Shipp leads receiving with 20 catches/273 yards; QUESTIONABLE stays two branches. Thurman 16/233 already anchors a receiving-TE pathway. Listed reserve TEs are not automatically additional deductions.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Jordan Shipp" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 16.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "Primary": [ 14.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "TightenUpON": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Shipp leads receiving with 20 catches/273 yards; QUESTIONABLE stays two branches. Thurman 16/233 already anchors a receiving-TE pathway. Listed reserve TEs are not automatically additional deductions.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5079687", "name": "Jordan Shipp", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/96", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -13, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -13, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 112, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079687/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 8, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4, "receptions": 60, "receivingYards": 671, "receivingTD": 6, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079687/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 20, "receivingYards": 273, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079687/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "153" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4871039", "name": "Jelani Thurman", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/102", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 42, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 84, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 233, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4871039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "194" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5159039", "name": "C.J. Sadler", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/103", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "153", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "153", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 87, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5159039/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "153" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5077266", "name": "Trech Kekahuna", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/104", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "275", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 11, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 11, "receptions": 25, "receivingYards": 339, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "275", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 14, "rushingYards": 129, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 9.21399974822998, "receptions": 26, "receivingYards": 211, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 71, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5077266/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "275" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "C.J. Sadler", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "C.J. Sadler", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jordan Shipp" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/153/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/153/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858256", "teamId": "221", "team": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "side": "home", "opponent": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "conferenceReportKey": "Pittsburgh", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5208095", "name": "Mason Heintschel", "position": "QB", "workload": "98/148, 1304 YDS, 14 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4714300", "name": "Holden Geriner", "position": "QB", "workload": "19/26, 219 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5158978", "name": "Damon Ferguson Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "51 CAR, 270 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5158978/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4683234", "name": "La'Vell Wright", "position": "RB", "workload": "35 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/4683234/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141677", "name": "Ja'Kyrian Turner", "position": "RB", "workload": "25 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5141677/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5102556", "name": "Cataurus Hicks", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 315 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5102556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5210164", "name": "Bryce Yates", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 240 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5210164/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5089539", "name": "Censere Lee", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 195 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5089539/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5083135", "name": "Carson Kent", "position": "TE", "workload": "12 REC, 157 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5083135/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296040", "name": "Elijah Lagg", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5296040/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Mason Heintschel", "id": "5208095", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "98/148, 1304 YDS, 14 TD, 1 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "30 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Elijah Lagg", "id": "5296040", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Max Hunt", "id": "5222252", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Rodney Dunbar", "id": "5379963", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Malik Knight", "id": "5089549", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Official October 5 coach report confirms Heintschel season-ending ACL injury and Geriner starter. Geriner completed 19/26 for 219 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in three appearances. First full start, third school in five years, current work with Kade Bell; changing coaches is not proof of no familiarity. No independent defensive score adjustment.", "confirmed": [ "Mason Heintschel" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "Primary": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "TightenUpON": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Official October 5 coach report confirms Heintschel season-ending ACL injury and Geriner starter. Geriner completed 19/26 for 219 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT in three appearances. First full start, third school in five years, current work with Kade Bell; changing coaches is not proof of no familiarity. No independent defensive score adjustment.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5208095", "name": "Mason Heintschel", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/80", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "221", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "221", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 276, "passingYards": 2098, "passingTD": 15, "interceptions": 7, "sacks": 30, "completionPct": 63.768001556396484, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.60099983215332, "rushAttempts": 75, "rushingYards": 97, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.2929999828338623, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "221", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 148, "passingYards": 1304, "passingTD": 14, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 5, "completionPct": 66.19999694824219, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.800000190734863, "rushAttempts": 30, "rushingYards": 112, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.700000047683716, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5208095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "221" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4714300", "name": "Holden Geriner", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/84", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 2, "passingYards": 33, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 16.5, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 6, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "326", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "221", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 26, "passingYards": 219, "passingTD": 2, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 73.0999984741211, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.399999618530273, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 23, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.800000190734863, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4714300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2", "326" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5207640", "name": "Corey Dailey", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/85", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "221", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5207640/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "221", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5207640/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "221", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 5, "passingYards": 57, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 60, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 11.399999618530273, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5207640/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "221" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Elijah Lagg" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Mason Heintschel", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Corey Dailey", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Corey Dailey", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Elijah Lagg" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/221/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "https://pittsburghpanthers.com/news/2026/10/5/football-narduzzi-notebook-pitt-looks-ahead-to-north-carolina", "https://pittsburghpanthers.com/sports/football/stats/2026" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Elijah Lagg", "id": "5296040", "status": "out", "reason": "Seven catches/76 yards versus Carson Kent 12/157; secondary TE by observed volume, but sufficiently involved to retain primary-role-if-confirmed sensitivity. Overlap with QB change is substantial.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/83", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "5083135", "name": "Carson Kent", "position": "TE", "workload": "12 REC, 157 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/221/athletes/5083135/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/91" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -3, "overlap": "Shared passing-drive/target uncertainty retained; no automatic extra joint deduction.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } } } ] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858260", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 22.43181818181818 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.833333333333332, 21.5 ], "current_rates": [ 36.6, 23.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 30.166666666666668, 28.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.8, 25.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 27.0432350975169 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.833333333333332, "pa": 21.5, "margin": 5.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401754374", "401754620", "401754531", "401754546", "401754556", "401754563", "401752942", "401754578", "401754589", "401754596", "401754606", "401754610" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858204", "401858224", "401858226", "401858243", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.166666666666668, "pa": 28.833333333333332, "margin": 1.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401754524", "401754531", "401754538", "401754548", "401754557", "401754562", "401754574", "401754579", "401754595", "401754598", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.8, "pa": 25.6, "margin": 11.199999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401858202", "401858222", "401856695", "401864572", "401858248" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.833333333333332, 25.833333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6400000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.833333333333332, "pa": 21.5, "margin": 5.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401754374", "401754620", "401754531", "401754546", "401754556", "401754563", "401752942", "401754578", "401754589", "401754596", "401754606", "401754610" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858204", "401858224", "401858226", "401858243", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.166666666666668, "pa": 28.833333333333332, "margin": 1.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401754524", "401754531", "401754538", "401754548", "401754557", "401754562", "401754574", "401754579", "401754595", "401754598", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.8, "pa": 25.6, "margin": 11.199999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401858202", "401858222", "401856695", "401864572", "401858248" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.833333333333332, 25.833333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.1, 29.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6400000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858260", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858260", "teamId": "154", "team": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons", "side": "away", "opponent": "NC State Wolfpack", "conferenceReportKey": "Wake Forest", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4920227", "name": "Gio Lopez", "position": "QB", "workload": "98/151, 1377 YDS, 10 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/4920227/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141634", "name": "Steele Pizzella", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/6, 63 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5141634/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5186586", "name": "Ty Clark III", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 258 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5186586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5382529", "name": "Deuce Lawrence", "position": "RB", "workload": "47 CAR, 235 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5382529/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5216505", "name": "Jamar Searcy", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 31 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5216505/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5153074", "name": "Carlos Hernandez", "position": "WR", "workload": "37 REC, 603 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5153074/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5239156", "name": "Jack Foley", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 172 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5239156/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5121666", "name": "Kam Shanks", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5121666/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5086448", "name": "Kamrean Johnson", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5086448/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5155870", "name": "Will Loerzel", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/athletes/5155870/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Elijah Otieno", "id": "5291183", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/154/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/154/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858260", "teamId": "152", "team": "NC State Wolfpack", "side": "home", "opponent": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons", "conferenceReportKey": "NC State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079301", "name": "CJ Bailey", "position": "QB", "workload": "98/150, 1266 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079301/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5148611", "name": "Will Wilson", "position": "QB", "workload": "8/11, 33 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5148611/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5126513", "name": "Jayden Scott", "position": "RB", "workload": "62 CAR, 358 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079468", "name": "Davion Gause", "position": "RB", "workload": "46 CAR, 188 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5176079", "name": "Dylan McCoy", "position": "RB", "workload": "4 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079524", "name": "Keenan Jackson", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 339 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079745", "name": "Joshisa Trader", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 221 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5160003", "name": "Tyran Warren", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5160003/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5215337", "name": "Preston Douglas", "position": "TE", "workload": "19 REC, 241 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5172608", "name": "Hunter Provience", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/athletes/5172608/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Jayden Scott", "id": "5126513", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "62 CAR, 358 YDS, 4 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 21 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Vander Ploog", "id": "5201877", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 25 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Ian Flynt", "id": "5126527", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Joshisa Trader", "id": "5079745", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "2/2, 5 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "16 REC, 221 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Scott is top rusher at 62 carries/358 yards. Gause already has 46/188. Trader has 16 catches/221 yards and remains QUESTIONABLE. Combined -6 represents distinct rushing and receiving role assumptions; Scott's three catches not counted again. Ploog/Flynt are not the leading receiving option.", "confirmed": [ "Jayden Scott" ], "conditional": [ "Joshisa Trader" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "Primary": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] } }, { "name": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "Primary": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Scott is top rusher at 62 carries/358 yards. Gause already has 46/188. Trader has 16 catches/221 yards and remains QUESTIONABLE. Combined -6 represents distinct rushing and receiving role assumptions; Scott's three catches not counted again. Ploog/Flynt are not the leading receiving option.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.568181818181817, 22.43181818181818 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.877911250519595, 27.0432350975169 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5126513", "name": "Jayden Scott", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/134", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 4, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.3329999446868896, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 87, "rushingYards": 487, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.5980000495910645, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 132, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 62, "rushingYards": 358, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.800000190734863, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 21, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5126513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "152" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079745", "name": "Joshisa Trader", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/135", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2390", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 30, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2390", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 11, "receivingYards": 168, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 2, "passingYards": 5, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 2.5, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 221, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2390" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079468", "name": "Davion Gause", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/138", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 62, "rushingYards": 314, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.065000057220459, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 45, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "153", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 61, "rushingYards": 259, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.245999813079834, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 132, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 46, "rushingYards": 188, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.099999904632568, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 117, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "153" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5176079", "name": "Dylan McCoy", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/763", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "152", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "152", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 73, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 18.299999237060547, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5176079/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "152" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079524", "name": "Keenan Jackson", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/139", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 105, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 27, "receivingYards": 258, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 22, "receivingYards": 339, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "152" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5215337", "name": "Preston Douglas", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/140", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "152", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 2, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "152", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 241, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5215337/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "152" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Dylan McCoy", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Dylan McCoy", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Preston Douglas", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Joshisa Trader" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/152/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/152/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "https://gopack.com/news/2026/9/12/football-from-the-field-record-setting-rout", "https://gopack.com/sports/football/roster" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Ploog two catches versus Douglas19/Provience5; no primary receiving-TE loss.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.568181818181817, 22.43181818181818 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.877911250519595, 27.0432350975169 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858481", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 41.92307692307692, 10.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 44.2, 10.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.25, 23.0 ], "current_rates": [ 43.6, 14.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.0, 24.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.0, 24.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.92307692307692, "pa": 10.846153846153847, "margin": 31.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401752812", "401752836", "401752843", "401752853", "401752870", "401752878", "401752885", "401752887", "401752893", "401752901", "401752924", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.2, "pa": 10.8, "margin": 33.400000000000006, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 6.25, "event_ids": [ "401752796", "401752810", "401752828", "401752846", "401752860", "401752867", "401752872", "401752883", "401752892", "401752895", "401752908", "401752916" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 14.2, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.8826923076923068, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.92307692307692, "pa": 10.846153846153847, "margin": 31.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401752812", "401752836", "401752843", "401752853", "401752870", "401752878", "401752885", "401752887", "401752893", "401752901", "401752924", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.2, "pa": 10.8, "margin": 33.400000000000006, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 6.25, "event_ids": [ "401752796", "401752810", "401752828", "401752846", "401752860", "401752867", "401752872", "401752883", "401752892", "401752895", "401752908", "401752916" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 14.2, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.8826923076923068, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858481", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858481", "teamId": "84", "team": "Indiana Hoosiers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Nebraska Cornhuskers", "conferenceReportKey": "Indiana", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685401", "name": "Josh Hoover", "position": "QB", "workload": "76/107, 1101 YDS, 15 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4685401/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4695867", "name": "Grant Wilson", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/5, 74 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4695867/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5146724", "name": "Turbo Richard", "position": "RB", "workload": "63 CAR, 587 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5146724/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5091725", "name": "Lee Beebe Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "89 CAR, 520 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5091725/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5214648", "name": "Jayreon Campbell", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 50 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5214648/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5146735", "name": "Charlie Becker", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 477 YDS, 8 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5146735/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079600", "name": "Nick Marsh", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 341 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5079600/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685516", "name": "Shazz Preston", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/4685516/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5142604", "name": "Brock Schott", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 25 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5142604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5216524", "name": "Andrew Barker", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/athletes/5216524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Lebron Bond", "id": "5209424", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Khobie Martin", "id": "5142140", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Andrew Barker", "id": "5216524", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 6 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Indiana Hoosiers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/84/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/84/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Barker one catch/six yards trails Schott one/25 and all three principal WRs 27/23/9 catches; no primary receiving role demonstrated.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858481", "teamId": "158", "team": "Nebraska Cornhuskers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Indiana Hoosiers", "conferenceReportKey": "Nebraska", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5044387", "name": "Anthony Colandrea", "position": "QB", "workload": "94/143, 1142 YDS, 13 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5044387/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141556", "name": "TJ Lateef", "position": "QB", "workload": "8/11, 82 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5141556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5290565", "name": "Jamal Rule", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 333 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5290565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5227018", "name": "Mekhi Nelson", "position": "RB", "workload": "56 CAR, 266 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5227018/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141607", "name": "Isaiah Mozee", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 195 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5141607/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5127885", "name": "Kwazi Gilmer", "position": "WR", "workload": "29 REC, 387 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5127885/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083370", "name": "Jacory Barney Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 233 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5083370/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078312", "name": "Nyziah Hunter", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 74 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5078312/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5081107", "name": "Luke Lindenmeyer", "position": "TE", "workload": "12 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5081107/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5110168", "name": "Carter Nelson", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/athletes/5110168/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Larry Miles", "id": "5272709", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, -1 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Carter Nelson", "id": "5110168", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 6 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Nebraska Cornhuskers: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/158/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/158/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Miles and Nelson each one catch; Lindenmeyer has12 and top WRs29/18/8. They are not documented main receiving losses.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.229020979020977, 24.048951048951047 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.495483298244295, 24.981719707319876 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401862795", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 29.076923076923077, 22.615384615384617 ], "current_rates": [ 18.75, 23.25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 22.416666666666668, 22.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 33.25, 19.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.0, 27.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.0, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 29.076923076923077, "pa": 22.615384615384617, "margin": 6.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401761601", "401754534", "401752711", "401762474", "401762480", "401762488", "401762443", "401762501", "401762509", "401762515", "401762518", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 23.25, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401864575", "401856792", "401862784" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.416666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762432", "401756882", "401762469", "401762471", "401762476", "401762483", "401762488", "401760401", "401762503", "401762512", "401762441", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 13.5, "event_ids": [ "401862701", "401862702", "401862779", "401869842" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "current_matchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1871794871794876, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.0, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 29.076923076923077, "pa": 22.615384615384617, "margin": 6.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401761601", "401754534", "401752711", "401762474", "401762480", "401762488", "401762443", "401762501", "401762509", "401762515", "401762518", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 23.25, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401864575", "401856792", "401862784" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.416666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762432", "401756882", "401762469", "401762471", "401762476", "401762483", "401762488", "401760401", "401762503", "401762512", "401762441", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 13.5, "event_ids": [ "401862701", "401862702", "401862779", "401869842" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "current_matchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1871794871794876, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.0, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401862795", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401862795", "teamId": "2655", "team": "Tulane Green Wave", "side": "away", "opponent": "Army Black Knights", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5091890", "name": "Kadin Semonza", "position": "QB", "workload": "50/93, 646 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5091890/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870518", "name": "Zeon Chriss-Gremillion", "position": "QB", "workload": "6/9, 64 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4870518/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4837391", "name": "Maurice Turner", "position": "RB", "workload": "26 CAR, 277 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4837391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4871148", "name": "Jaylin Lucas", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 238 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4871148/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5218820", "name": "Johnnie Daniels", "position": "RB", "workload": "43 CAR, 168 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5218820/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5150834", "name": "Destyn Hill", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 169 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5150834/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870635", "name": "Anthony Brown-Stephens", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 144 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4870635/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079686", "name": "Bredell Richardson", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 85 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5079686/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5222239", "name": "Dawson Johnson", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 44 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/5222239/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4432774", "name": "Ty Thompson", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 8 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/athletes/4432774/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Tulane Green Wave: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2655/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2655/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401862795", "teamId": "349", "team": "Army Black Knights", "side": "home", "opponent": "Tulane Green Wave", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5150297", "name": "Cale Hellums", "position": "QB", "workload": "28/49, 337 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150297/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219408", "name": "Ethan Washington", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/2, 13 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5219408/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5293685", "name": "Godspower Nwawuihe", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 164 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5293685/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150326", "name": "Carson Smith", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150326/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150329", "name": "Jake Rendina", "position": "RB", "workload": "18 CAR, 72 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150329/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5082118", "name": "Zach Mundell", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5082118/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150316", "name": "Samari Howard", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 73 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150316/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150373", "name": "Tobi Olawole", "position": "WR", "workload": "1 REC, 37 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150373/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5150333", "name": "Parker Poloskey", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 28 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5150333/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219468", "name": "Tex Brannan", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/athletes/5219468/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Army Black Knights: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/349/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/349/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401866436", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 33.75, 26.25 ], "current_rates": [ 17.6, 28.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.5, 24.25 ], "current_rates": [ 11.4, 33.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 27.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401767130", "401760365", "401767131", "401767132", "401767073", "401767133", "401767123", "401767101", "401767066", "401767129", "401767096", "401767134" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 28.6, "margin": -11.0, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401866411", "401860883", "401864507", "401866429" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 24.25, "margin": -3.75, "event_ids": [ "401762790", "401756880", "401757256", "401754642", "401762825", "401762835", "401762839", "401762846", "401762849", "401762855", "401762862", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 11.4, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -21.6, "event_ids": [ "401866410", "401858441", "401856798", "401862785", "401866477" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.0, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.3, 20.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.185, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401767130", "401760365", "401767131", "401767132", "401767073", "401767133", "401767123", "401767101", "401767066", "401767129", "401767096", "401767134" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 28.6, "margin": -11.0, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401866411", "401860883", "401864507", "401866429" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 24.25, "margin": -3.75, "event_ids": [ "401762790", "401756880", "401757256", "401754642", "401762825", "401762835", "401762839", "401762846", "401762849", "401762855", "401762862", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 11.4, "pa": 33.0, "margin": -21.6, "event_ids": [ "401866410", "401858441", "401856798", "401862785", "401866477" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.0, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.3, 20.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.185, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401866436", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401866436", "teamId": "16", "team": "Sacramento State Hornets", "side": "away", "opponent": "Bowling Green Falcons", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5158748", "name": "Jackson Sharman", "position": "QB", "workload": "82/142, 856 YDS, 5 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5158748/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4920192", "name": "Carson Conklin", "position": "QB", "workload": "25/46, 222 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/4920192/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5161820", "name": "Isaiah Ene", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 141 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5161820/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5310132", "name": "Daniel Swinney", "position": "RB", "workload": "28 CAR, 139 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5310132/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5084459", "name": "Cincere Rhaney", "position": "RB", "workload": "30 CAR, 120 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5084459/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5082587", "name": "Matt Coleman", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 369 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5082587/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5152796", "name": "Onterrio Smith Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 240 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5152796/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158759", "name": "Raiden Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 149 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5158759/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4912040", "name": "Jordan Williams", "position": "TE", "workload": "15 REC, 122 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/4912040/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5225846", "name": "Kyle Koontz", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 25 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/athletes/5225846/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Sacramento State Hornets: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/16/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/16/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866436", "teamId": "189", "team": "Bowling Green Falcons", "side": "home", "opponent": "Sacramento State Hornets", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5385753", "name": "Jay Kastantin", "position": "QB", "workload": "83/128, 870 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5385753/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912647", "name": "Austin Novosad", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/5, -1 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/4912647/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5147347", "name": "Austyn Dendy", "position": "RB", "workload": "62 CAR, 185 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5147347/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219017", "name": "Nakai Amachree", "position": "RB", "workload": "33 CAR, 113 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5219017/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5121607", "name": "Ke'Marion Baldwin", "position": "RB", "workload": "12 CAR, 50 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5121607/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5193284", "name": "Winn Sharp", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 217 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5193284/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5226453", "name": "Brennan Ridley", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 167 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5226453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5231360", "name": "Nick Sowell", "position": "WR", "workload": "1 REC, 15 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5231360/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5207804", "name": "Jeremiah Scoby", "position": "TE", "workload": "18 REC, 182 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5207804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193300", "name": "Eli Jacon-Duffy", "position": "TE", "workload": "14 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/athletes/5193300/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Bowling Green Falcons: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/189/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/189/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401866658", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.107371794871796, 24.419871794871796 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.107371794871796, 24.419871794871796 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.107371794871796, 24.419871794871796 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.706848226759874, 27.04832741242569 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.706848226759874, 27.04832741242569 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.706848226759874, 27.04832741242569 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 24.846153846153847, "pa": 22.846153846153847, "margin": 2.0, "event_ids": [ "401767265", "401767266", "401762818", "401767267", "401767268", "401767269", "401767270", "401767144", "401767271", "401767262", "401767138", "401767195", "401836116" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -15.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401866616", "401858208", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 43.583333333333336, "margin": -23.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401756886", "401767181", "401767272", "401767191", "401767273", "401767274", "401767145", "401767275", "401767316", "401767263", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 32.833333333333336, "margin": -15.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.4750000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 24.846153846153847, "pa": 22.846153846153847, "margin": 2.0, "event_ids": [ "401767265", "401767266", "401762818", "401767267", "401767268", "401767269", "401767270", "401767144", "401767271", "401767262", "401767138", "401767195", "401836116" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -15.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401866616", "401858208", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 43.583333333333336, "margin": -23.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401756886", "401767181", "401767272", "401767191", "401767273", "401767274", "401767145", "401767275", "401767316", "401767263", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 32.833333333333336, "margin": -15.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.4750000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401866658", "matchup": "New Hampshire Wildcats at North Carolina A&T Aggies", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T16:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3603", "guid": "b2a18dc8-d212-31e9-bfc2-5579d4a00212", "fullName": "Truist Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greensboro", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "30339", "country": "USA" }, "grass": true, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2448", "teamName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866653", "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "name": "North Carolina A&T Aggies at Bryant Bulldogs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T22:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Beirne Stadium", "address": { "city": "Smithfield", "state": "RI", "zipCode": "02917", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2803", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2803", "displayName": "Bryant Bulldogs" } }, { "id": "2448", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "2448", "displayName": "North Carolina A&T Aggies" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.75, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ncataggies.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "160", "teamName": "New Hampshire Wildcats", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401866650", "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "name": "Elon Phoenix at New Hampshire Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T17:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Wildcat Stadium (NH)", "address": { "city": "Durham", "state": "NH", "zipCode": "03824", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "160", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 30.0, "displayValue": "30" }, "team": { "id": "160", "displayName": "New Hampshire Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2210", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 23.0, "displayValue": "23" }, "team": { "id": "2210", "displayName": "Elon Phoenix" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.958, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unhwildcats.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Greensboro. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2448", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#160" ], "finding": "North Carolina A&T Aggies: QB Kevin White, RB J.T. Smith/Shimique Blizzard/RJ Baker, WR Michael Carlock-Williams/Elijah Kennedy/Jayvonne Dillard, TE Anthony Rucker; New Hampshire Wildcats: QB Brooks Bentley/Barry Kleinpeter, RB Joquez Smith/Myles Thomason, WR Ja'Carree Kelly/Logan Perez/Josh Fillion, TE Colby Ramshaw/Drew Danson" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. 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Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Greensboro&state=NC&site=RAH&textField1=36.0789&textField2=-79.8269&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:12.978247+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Rain, mainly before 2pm, then showers after 2pm. High near 64. Northeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Low around 63. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866660", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2168", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2413" ], "finding": "Dayton Flyers: QB Bryce Schondelmyer, RB Luke Hansen/Mason Hackett/Noah Spencer, WR Michael Mussari/Gavin Lochow/Ethan Thulin, TE Bryce Cowgill/Carson Labensky; Morehead State Eagles: QB David Parsons/Bryce Patterson, RB Jackson Lanier/Blake Fisher/Ezekiel Pour, WR Anthony Ice/Riley Purcell/Cannon Dinger, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. 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Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dayton&state=OH&site=ILN&textField1=39.7791&textField2=-84.1974&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:14.324239+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Southeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 5am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Low around 58. East wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858482", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858482", "teamId": "2050", "team": "Ball State Cardinals", "side": "away", "opponent": "Northwestern Wildcats", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5075392", "name": "Keldric Luster", "position": "QB", "workload": "76/119, 662 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5075392/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5152153", "name": "Tyler Mizzell", "position": "QB", "workload": "19/33, 209 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5152153/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5077876", "name": "TJ Horton", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 301 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5077876/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5265528", "name": "Jalen Bonds", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 126 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5265528/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4899137", "name": "Johnny Thompson Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 74 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/4899137/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5191056", "name": "Donovan Hamilton", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 220 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5191056/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5222761", "name": "Jamarion McDougle", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 135 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5222761/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078533", "name": "Jabari Smith", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5078533/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5295205", "name": "Tate Hoover", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 37 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5295205/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5082283", "name": "Alex Scherle", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 16 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/athletes/5082283/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Ball State Cardinals: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2050/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2050/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858482", "teamId": "77", "team": "Northwestern Wildcats", "side": "home", "opponent": "Ball State Cardinals", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5075805", "name": "Aidan Chiles", "position": "QB", "workload": "63/89, 900 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/5075805/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5078244", "name": "Caleb Komolafe", "position": "RB", "workload": "52 CAR, 290 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/5078244/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4816307", "name": "Joseph Himon II", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 277 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/4816307/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685545", "name": "Gavin Sawchuk", "position": "RB", "workload": "33 CAR, 170 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/4685545/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5154734", "name": "Griffin Wilde", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 281 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/5154734/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5222752", "name": "Drew Wagner", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 97 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/5222752/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921291", "name": "Ricky Ahumaraeze", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 63 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/4921291/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5328488", "name": "Luke Dehnicke", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 208 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/5328488/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4569262", "name": "Alex Honig", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/athletes/4569262/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Northwestern Wildcats: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/77/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/77/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.55681818181818, 30.827272727272728 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401867992", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.083333333333332, 34.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 10.2, 26.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 21.083333333333332, 26.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 16.5, 31.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "57", "side": "home", "player": "Vernell Brown III", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.5833333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752691", "401752704", "401752713", "401752722", "401752732", "401752744", "401752751", "401752756", "401752772", "401752779", "401752790" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.6, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 10.8, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401856680", "401856691", "401856696", "401856709" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.583333333333332, "pa": 24.0, "margin": -2.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401752684", "401752699", "401752709", "401752727", "401752737", "401752741", "401752755", "401752760", "401752769", "401752775", "401752785" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 46.2, "pa": 27.2, "margin": 19.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401856637", "401856672", "401856687", "401856699", "401856708" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5199999999999999, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 31.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 31.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856714", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856714", "teamId": "2579", "team": "South Carolina Gamecocks", "side": "away", "opponent": "Florida Gators", "conferenceReportKey": "South Carolina", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4875127", "name": "LaNorris Sellers", "position": "QB", "workload": "92/152, 1059 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4875127/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164334", "name": "Cutter Woods", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/14, 92 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5164334/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5145737", "name": "Matt Fuller", "position": "RB", "workload": "71 CAR, 433 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5145737/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141742", "name": "Jabree Coleman", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 173 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5141742/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921292", "name": "Isaiah Augustave", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 114 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4921292/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079329", "name": "Mazeo Bennett Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 201 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5079329/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870745", "name": "Nyck Harbor", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 195 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4870745/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5200374", "name": "Donovan Murph", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 159 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5200374/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4683210", "name": "Brady Hunt", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 95 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/4683210/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5154341", "name": "Maurice Brown II", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 43 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/athletes/5154341/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Jayden Sellers", "id": "5179622", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "South Carolina Gamecocks: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2579/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2579/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856714", "teamId": "57", "team": "Florida Gators", "side": "home", "opponent": "South Carolina Gamecocks", "conferenceReportKey": "Florida", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5132812", "name": "Aaron Philo", "position": "QB", "workload": "84/121, 1114 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5132812/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295814", "name": "Tramell Jones Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "17/21, 212 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5295814/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079322", "name": "Jadan Baugh", "position": "RB", "workload": "95 CAR, 613 YDS, 11 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5079322/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295815", "name": "Duke Clark", "position": "RB", "workload": "33 CAR, 260 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5295815/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4432757", "name": "Evan Pryor", "position": "RB", "workload": "12 CAR, 40 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/4432757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5141723", "name": "Dallas Wilson", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 302 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295811", "name": "Vernell Brown III", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 271 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079289", "name": "TJ Abrams", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 166 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5218907", "name": "Luke Harpring", "position": "TE", "workload": "10 REC, 130 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5139093", "name": "Amir Jackson", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/athletes/5139093/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Vernell Brown III", "id": "5295811", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "3 CAR, 16 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "17 REC, 271 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Second-leading receiver (17 catches/271 yards) is QUESTIONABLE. Preserve available and redistributed-target branches. Philo/Baugh carry no listed restriction in the current conference report.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Vernell Brown III" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Vernell Brown III", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 26.704545454545453, 26.25 ], "Primary": [ 21.907448075492823, 29.62047086728566 ], "TightenUpON": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Second-leading receiver (17 catches/271 yards) is QUESTIONABLE. Preserve available and redistributed-target branches. Philo/Baugh carry no listed restriction in the current conference report.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.704545454545453, 26.25 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.907448075492823, 29.62047086728566 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5295811", "name": "Vernell Brown III", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/156", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "57", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 14, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 14, "receptions": 40, "receivingYards": 512, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 16, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.300000190734863, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 271, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5295811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "57" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079289", "name": "TJ Abrams", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/163", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 202, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 166, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "57" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141723", "name": "Dallas Wilson", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/162", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "57", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 174, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 6, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 18, "receivingYards": 302, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141723/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "57" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5218907", "name": "Luke Harpring", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/165", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "59", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 43, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "59", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 158, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 130, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5218907/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "59" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Vernell Brown III", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Dallas Wilson", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Vernell Brown III" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/57/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/57/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.704545454545453, 26.25 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.907448075492823, 29.62047086728566 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401862797", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 19.833333333333332, 32.25 ], "current_rates": [ 18.0, 27.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 33.5, 20.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 24.0, 25.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20.0, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.0, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.0, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 32.25, "margin": -12.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761592", "401756884", "401762466", "401762468", "401762473", "401762477", "401762485", "401757172", "401762497", "401762502", "401762514", "401762520" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.0, "pa": 27.4, "margin": -9.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401862697", "401859184", "401862773", "401860891", "401862788" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 25.25, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.3733333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 34.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 32.25, "margin": -12.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761592", "401756884", "401762466", "401762468", "401762473", "401762477", "401762485", "401757172", "401762497", "401762502", "401762514", "401762520" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.0, "pa": 27.4, "margin": -9.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401862697", "401859184", "401862773", "401860891", "401862788" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 25.25, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.3733333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 34.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401862797", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401862797", "teamId": "242", "team": "Rice Owls", "side": "away", "opponent": "East Carolina Pirates", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685291", "name": "Jacurri Brown", "position": "QB", "workload": "36/67, 410 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/4685291/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5145788", "name": "Gael Ochoa", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/5, 17 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5145788/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5207925", "name": "Tyvonn Byars", "position": "RB", "workload": "52 CAR, 208 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5207925/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5207930", "name": "D'Andre Hardeman Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "52 CAR, 200 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5207930/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5082271", "name": "Quinton Jackson", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5082271/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4923288", "name": "Barry Jackson Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/4923288/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5265445", "name": "Jordan Clark", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 102 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5265445/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5144288", "name": "Ben Grice", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 64 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/athletes/5144288/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Rice Owls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [ "receivingTE" ], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/242/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/242/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401862797", "teamId": "151", "team": "East Carolina Pirates", "side": "home", "opponent": "Rice Owls", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4433829", "name": "Mitch Griffis", "position": "QB", "workload": "36/67, 425 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/4433829/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5075800", "name": "Emory Williams", "position": "QB", "workload": "31/46, 386 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5075800/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079419", "name": "TJ Engleman Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "31 CAR, 250 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5079419/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5194306", "name": "Ashton Gray", "position": "RB", "workload": "32 CAR, 152 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5194306/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685237", "name": "Michael Allen", "position": "RB", "workload": "23 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/4685237/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4870770", "name": "Ray Ray Joseph Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 199 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/4870770/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5145453", "name": "Jeremiah Melvin", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 154 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5145453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5148837", "name": "Dillon Lorick", "position": "WR", "workload": "3 REC, 87 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5148837/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5125012", "name": "Ismael Smith Flores", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 48 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/5125012/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4911906", "name": "Kanen Hamlett", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 23 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/athletes/4911906/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "East Carolina Pirates: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/151/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/151/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401867829", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 36.45454545454545, 21.181818181818183 ], "current_rates": [ 21.666666666666668, 11.333333333333334 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 21.0, 26.0 ], "current_rates": [ 26.666666666666668, 19.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 19.25, "margin": 13.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401761599", "401754536", "401757271", "401761619", "401761626", "401761631", "401761635", "401761641", "401761649", "401761657", "401761664" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 32.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401867973", "401858221", "401862710", "401869961", "401869956" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401761596", "401761607", "401760379", "401752940", "401761624", "401761629", "401761635", "401761644", "401761652", "401761656", "401761661" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 22.25, "margin": 12.5, "event_ids": [ "401866627", "401864571", "401864574", "401864572" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.25, 22.291666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.025, 33.575 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7183333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401869843", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401869843", "teamId": "295", "team": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "side": "away", "opponent": "App State Mountaineers", "conferenceReportKey": "Old Dominion", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5193346", "name": "Quinn Henicle", "position": "QB", "workload": "38/68, 473 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5193346/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295919", "name": "Ryan Huff", "position": "QB", "workload": "23/48, 279 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5295919/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4922993", "name": "Devin Roche", "position": "RB", "workload": "57 CAR, 247 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/4922993/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5294446", "name": "Trey Hall", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 57 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5294446/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5394557", "name": "Ja'Varien Salter", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 38 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5394557/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5295923", "name": "TJ Johnson", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 163 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5295923/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295921", "name": "Josh Rodriguez", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 150 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5295921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5127805", "name": "JJ Harrell", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 126 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5127805/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4832875", "name": "Leon Haughton Jr.", "position": "TE", "workload": "10 REC, 118 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/4832875/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078274", "name": "Lonnie Johnson", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 8 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/athletes/5078274/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Quinn Henicle", "id": "5193346", "position": "QB", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "38/68, 473 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "55 CAR, 235 YDS, 4 TD" } ] }, { "name": "TJ Johnson", "id": "5295923", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "12 REC, 163 YDS, 2 TD" } ] }, { "name": "JJ Harrell", "id": "5127805", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "9 REC, 126 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Sidney Mbanasor", "id": "4912111", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Harrell third receiving yards (9/126) OUT; leading WR TJ Johnson 12/163 QUESTIONABLE. Separate receiver opportunities allow isolated -3 scenarios and joint -6 human sensitivity, with -3 overlap sensitivity. Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced.", "confirmed": [ "JJ Harrell" ], "conditional": [ "TJ Johnson" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "JJ Harrell", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "Primary": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "TightenUpON": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ] } }, { "name": "TJ Johnson", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "Primary": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "TightenUpON": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Harrell third receiving yards (9/126) OUT; leading WR TJ Johnson 12/163 QUESTIONABLE. Separate receiver opportunities allow isolated -3 scenarios and joint -6 human sensitivity, with -3 overlap sensitivity. Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced.", "overlapSensitivity": -3, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5127805", "name": "JJ Harrell", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/193", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "344", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5127805/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2032", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5127805/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 9, "receivingYards": 126, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5127805/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "344", "2032" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5295923", "name": "TJ Johnson", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/195", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "295", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5295923/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 68, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5295923/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 163, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5295923/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "295" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5295921", "name": "Josh Rodriguez", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/201", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "295", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5295921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "295", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5295921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 150, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5295921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "295" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4832875", "name": "Leon Haughton Jr.", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/202", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 11, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4832875/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 43, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4832875/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 118, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4832875/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "120" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5153408", "name": "Kendall Harris", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/203", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2382", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 14, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 14, "receptions": 35, "receivingYards": 355, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5153408/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2382", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 2, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2, "receptions": 37, "receivingYards": 478, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5153408/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "295", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 70, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5153408/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2382" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "JJ Harrell", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "JJ Harrell", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "TJ Johnson", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Josh Rodriguez", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Josh Rodriguez", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: TJ Johnson" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/295/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/295/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401869843", "teamId": "2026", "team": "App State Mountaineers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "conferenceReportKey": "App State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870999", "name": "Malachi Singleton", "position": "QB", "workload": "96/132, 1206 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4870999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146664", "name": "Henry Hasselbeck", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/5, 51 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5146664/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5156152", "name": "Jaquari Lewis", "position": "RB", "workload": "47 CAR, 220 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5156152/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4700811", "name": "Ja'Quez Cross", "position": "RB", "workload": "18 CAR, 105 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4700811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4871065", "name": "Treyaun Webb", "position": "RB", "workload": "18 CAR, 56 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4871065/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5300543", "name": "Sam Pickett III", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 326 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5300543/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5224355", "name": "Nate Branch", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 203 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5224355/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5092352", "name": "Chris Lofton", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 148 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5092352/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4885469", "name": "Darrin Fugitt", "position": "TE", "workload": "16 REC, 192 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/4885469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5209334", "name": "Jamel Howse", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 106 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/athletes/5209334/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Alexander Sanchez", "id": "5199951", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "6 REC, 79 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Dillon Galloway", "id": "5228759", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 49 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Daz James", "id": "5150276", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 4 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 9 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "App State Mountaineers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2026/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2026/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Sanchez six catches trails Pickett20/Branch20/Lofton12; Galloway one catch trails Fugitt16/Howse7; James one catch. No main-role trigger established.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 20.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.470445267274584, 29.012072060243362 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401866440", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.076923076923077, 22.0 ], "current_rates": [ 26.8, 29.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 11.083333333333334, 38.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 31.8, 17.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 25.076923076923077, "pa": 22.0, "margin": 3.0769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401762791", "401752818", "401760376", "401762827", "401762873", "401762833", "401762841", "401762874", "401762852", "401762860", "401762865", "401762875", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 29.2, "margin": -2.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401866417", "401856797", "401861970", "401866477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 11.083333333333334, "pa": 38.583333333333336, "margin": -27.5, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762816", "401752830", "401752721", "401762832", "401762837", "401762840", "401762847", "401762851", "401762859", "401762863", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 17.8, "margin": 14.0, "event_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.4176923076923078, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 25.076923076923077, "pa": 22.0, "margin": 3.0769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401762791", "401752818", "401760376", "401762827", "401762873", "401762833", "401762841", "401762874", "401762852", "401762860", "401762865", "401762875", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 29.2, "margin": -2.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401866417", "401856797", "401861970", "401866477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 11.083333333333334, "pa": 38.583333333333336, "margin": -27.5, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762816", "401752830", "401752721", "401762832", "401762837", "401762840", "401762847", "401762851", "401762859", "401762863", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 17.8, "margin": 14.0, "event_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.4176923076923078, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401866440", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401866440", "teamId": "193", "team": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "side": "away", "opponent": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141549", "name": "David McComb", "position": "QB", "workload": "65/103, 1121 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5141549/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5388435", "name": "Caleb Heavner", "position": "QB", "workload": "24/33, 234 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5388435/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5153885", "name": "Rodney Nelson", "position": "RB", "workload": "44 CAR, 154 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5153885/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5214639", "name": "Lazaro Rogers", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5214639/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193270", "name": "D'Shawntae Jones", "position": "RB", "workload": "26 CAR, 72 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5193270/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079772", "name": "Damarion Witten", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 274 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5079772/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5085354", "name": "Lynel Billups-Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 265 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5085354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4876642", "name": "Maleek Huggins", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 262 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/4876642/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5209576", "name": "Brendan Loftus", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/5209576/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4871003", "name": "Christian Ross", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 52 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/athletes/4871003/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Miami (OH) RedHawks: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/193/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/193/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866440", "teamId": "113", "team": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "side": "home", "opponent": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4920153", "name": "William Watson III", "position": "QB", "workload": "74/100, 820 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4920153/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5327585", "name": "Aedan McCarthy", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/4, 11 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5327585/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5388331", "name": "Curtis Kimmons IV", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 262 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5388331/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5264764", "name": "Elijah Faulkner", "position": "RB", "workload": "52 CAR, 246 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5264764/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5227849", "name": "Jordan Washington", "position": "RB", "workload": "11 CAR, 54 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5227849/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4909541", "name": "T.Y. Harding", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 236 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4909541/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5388332", "name": "Jabari Lewis", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 152 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5388332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4700147", "name": "Joseph Griffin Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4700147/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5092954", "name": "Max Dowling", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/5092954/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4688904", "name": "Reece Adkins", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 75 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/athletes/4688904/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Massachusetts Minutemen: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/113/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/113/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401866661", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.854166666666668, 26.875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.854166666666668, 26.875 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.854166666666668, 26.875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 22.833333333333332, 17.25 ], "current_rates": [ 25.166666666666668, 28.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 28.75, 24.75 ], "current_rates": [ 30.0, 17.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.0, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.0, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.994442386007684, 29.784450617312316 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.994442386007684, 29.784450617312316 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.994442386007684, 29.784450617312316 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401867974", "matchup": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Norfolk State Spartans", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T18:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3991", "guid": "ff239275-b872-3dba-92b3-1f10218e5880", "fullName": "William \"Dick\" Price Stadium", "address": { "city": "Norfolk", "state": "VA", "zipCode": "23504", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2450", "teamName": "Norfolk State Spartans", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867918", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Norfolk State Spartans at Robert Morris Colonials", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Joe Walton Stadium", "address": { "city": "Moon Township", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15108", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2523", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2523", "displayName": "Robert Morris Colonials" } }, { "id": "2450", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2450", "displayName": "Norfolk State Spartans" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2355", "teamName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868942", "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "name": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Daytona Stadium", "address": { "city": "Daytona Beach", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32124", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2065", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 62.0, "displayValue": "62" }, "team": { "id": "2065", "displayName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2355", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2355", "displayName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Norfolk. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "scheduleExplanation": "Own official site failed; official Norfolk Oct8 opponent preview confirms Oct10.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history lastSep19 incomplete. Official Norfolk preview: last competitive game Sep26 at Bluefield; Oct1 scrimmage excluded from record but physical workload relevant. 14 calendar days between competitive dates; exact kickoff/recovery timing unavailable." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2450", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2355" ], "finding": "Norfolk State Spartans: QB Da'Jean Golmond/Evan Helfrich, RB Jalyn Daniels/Ravon Moore/Kiron Benjamin, WR Elyjah Mitchell/Brevin Caldwell/Paul Billups II, TE Rocco Ciocca; Virginia Lynchburg Dragons: QB Max Zavala, RB Israel Rhodes, WR Omarion Hairston/Dustin Placide, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2450", "teamName": "Norfolk State Spartans", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867918", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Norfolk State Spartans at Robert Morris Colonials", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Joe Walton Stadium", "address": { "city": "Moon Township", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "15108", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2523", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "2523", "displayName": "Robert Morris Colonials" } }, { "id": "2450", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "2450", "displayName": "Norfolk State Spartans" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2355", "teamName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868942", "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "name": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-19T20:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Daytona Stadium", "address": { "city": "Daytona Beach", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "32124", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2065", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 62.0, "displayValue": "62" }, "team": { "id": "2065", "displayName": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2355", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 3.0, "displayValue": "3" }, "team": { "id": "2355", "displayName": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Norfolk. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "scheduleExplanation": "Own official site failed; official Norfolk Oct8 opponent preview confirms Oct10.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history lastSep19 incomplete. Official Norfolk preview: last competitive game Sep26 at Bluefield; Oct1 scrimmage excluded from record but physical workload relevant. 14 calendar days between competitive dates; exact kickoff/recovery timing unavailable." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Norfolk&state=VA&site=AKQ&textField1=36.8473&textField2=-76.2853&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.513691+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Cloudy, with a high near 74. East wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tonight Rain likely, mainly between 11pm and 2am, then showers after 2am. Low around 68. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "CONDITIONAL AVAILABILITY: Deljay Bailey: CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.; NON-DI OPPONENT sample: preserve engine eligibility and missing-history gates.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [ { "teamId": "2355", "error": "('Connection aborted.', ConnectionResetError(10054, 'An existing connection was forcibly closed by the remote host', None, 10054, None))" } ], "replacementScenarios": [ { "eventId": "401867974", "teamId": "2450", "teamName": "Norfolk State Spartans", "incumbent": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "role": "QB", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "sourceDate": "2026-10-08", "status": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "trigger": "Oct8 official preview: Bailey still nursing shoulder injury; Golmond started last two games. Qualifying material-limitation branch does not falsely state Bailey ruled out.", "history": { "Deljay Bailey": { "2024": "Grambling:7 appearances,39/72,440 yards,0 TD,3 INT;36 rushes/42 yards/2 TD. Starts unavailable.", "2025": "Itawamba CC:157/229,1653 yards,14 TD per Norfolk official bio; game/start count, interceptions and sacks unavailable. JUCO production retained separately, no NCAA conversion.", "2026": "Norfolk State:59/90,539 yards,3 TD,3 INT;43 rushes/111 yards/3 TD;9 sacks. Separate Grambling/JUCO/Norfolk team splits." }, "Da'Jean Golmond": { "2024": "Pre-college; no NCAA production.", "2025": "Denham Springs HS:2544 passing yards/32 TD;477 rushing yards/10 TD per official bio. High-school data contextual only, not converted.", "2026": "Norfolk State freshman:53/87,683 yards,5 TD,INT;19 rushes/125 yards/2 TD;2 sacks. Started last two;371 pass yards at Robert Morris." } }, "familiarity": "Both in Michael Vick current system; Golmond has two recent starts, coach publicly praises poise and teammate belief. No unverified claim of pre-college relationship. Protection-call experience/practice reps unreported.", "opportunityChange": "Golmond lead role with some Bailey action expected; mixed QB snap share unestimated. Full Bailey return is separate branch.", "offensiveLine": "Official preview cites C Tyler Leinberger 200+ snaps and strong pass blocking; score conversion unsupported.", "opponentContext": "Virginia Lynchburg non-DI NCCAA; severe cross-division sample/identity limitations must survive normal gates.", "doubleCounting": "Two Golmond starts already influence baseline; no second statistical injury deduction. Human -3 remains explicit user assumption and may be adverse despite better raw Golmond efficiency.", "statisticalReplacementAdjustment": null, "statisticalReplacementForecast": "Registered baseline proxy; adjusted player-specific score effect unestimated.", "branches": [ { "condition": "Bailey fully recovers to reference role", "humanDeduction": 0 }, { "condition": "Bailey materially limited and Golmond carries replaced role", "humanDeduction": -3 } ], "appliedConservativeSensitivity": -3, "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "reviewedUTC": "2026-10-10T10:13:05.267848+00:00", "additionalIndependentAdjustment": 0, "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "jointScenario": "Only one qualifying covered-role scenario identified for this team. Joint scenario equals isolated -3 branch; no stacked QB/WR or injury-headcount deductions.", "gateOutcome": "Pre-price: retain PASS_PENDING_GATES. Parent must evaluate base and both availability branches in each of the four configurations after immutable freeze; any selection failing applicable branch becomes PASS, never opposite-side promotion.", "scoreExpression": "adjusted team points = retained registered baseline - 3.0 in qualifying branch; available branch = baseline. Statistical replacement-specific conversion is unestimated, not proven zero.", "baseAndAdjustedScores": "Parent-owned model means pending; attach by eventId and teamId without changing registered arithmetic.", "advancedUncertainty": [ "routes/targets and verified drops unavailable", "exact game-day snap allocation unconfirmed", "no calibrated player-to-score conversion", "protection-call experience and full practice participation unavailable" ] } ] } }, { "eventId": "401868256", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 7.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767620", "401767544", "401767541", "401767621", "401767622", "401767606", "401767623", "401767598", "401767624", "401767619", "401767625", "401836195" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 38.6, "margin": -10.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868254", "401868111", "401868255", "401868219", "401868228" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.333333333333332, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401767656", "401767237", "401767502", "401767621", "401767616", "401767649", "401767638", "401767642", "401767646", "401767654", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 8.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868288", "401867867", "401867857", "401868211", "401868270" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.37166666666666653, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401868095", "matchup": "Idaho Vandals at Weber State Wildcats", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3942", "guid": "6ed829b5-b6f4-3101-af1a-346df268ecf0", "fullName": "Stewart Stadium", "address": { "city": "Ogden", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84408", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2692", "teamName": "Weber State Wildcats", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868077", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Weber State Wildcats at Cal Poly Mustangs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 6, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final/2OT", "shortDetail": "Final/2OT", "altDetail": "2OT" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Luis Obispo", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "93405", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "13", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "13", "displayName": "Cal Poly Mustangs" } }, { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://weberstatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "70", "teamName": "Idaho Vandals", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868094", "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "name": "Montana State Bobcats at Idaho Vandals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Kibbie Dome", "address": { "city": "Moscow", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83844", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "70", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "70", "displayName": "Idaho Vandals" } }, { "id": "147", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "147", "displayName": "Montana State Bobcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.688, "officialScheduleSource": "https://govandals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Ogden. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2692", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#70" ], "finding": "Weber State Wildcats: QB Nate Dahle/Devin Brown, RB Seth Rigtrup/Omar Shah/Spencer Ferguson, WR Noah Kjar/Tate Kjar/Marvin Session, TE Kolby Howard; Idaho Vandals: QB Joshua Wood/Israel Carter, RB Hayden Kincheloe/Damonte Bias/Ferrari Miller, WR Tony Harste/Ryan Jezioro/Daveon Superales, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2692", "teamName": "Weber State Wildcats", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868077", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Weber State Wildcats at Cal Poly Mustangs", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 6, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final/2OT", "shortDetail": "Final/2OT", "altDetail": "2OT" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium", "address": { "city": "San Luis Obispo", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "93405", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "13", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "13", "displayName": "Cal Poly Mustangs" } }, { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 42.0, "displayValue": "42" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.792, "officialScheduleSource": "https://weberstatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "70", "teamName": "Idaho Vandals", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868094", "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "name": "Montana State Bobcats at Idaho Vandals", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T02:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Kibbie Dome", "address": { "city": "Moscow", "state": "ID", "zipCode": "83844", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "70", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 35.0, "displayValue": "35" }, "team": { "id": "70", "displayName": "Idaho Vandals" } }, { "id": "147", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "147", "displayName": "Montana State Bobcats" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.688, "officialScheduleSource": "https://govandals.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Ogden. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Ogden&state=UT&site=SLC&textField1=41.2231&textField2=-111.973&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.774002+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 67. South southeast wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Saturday A chance of showers before 9am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 9am and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3am. Low around 55. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "CONDITIONAL AVAILABILITY: Marvin Session: CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [ { "eventId": "401868095", "teamId": "2692", "teamName": "Weber State Wildcats", "incumbent": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "role": "WR", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "sourceDate": "2026-10-06", "status": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "trigger": "Session is a material established receiver (2025 team receiving-yard leader, four TD in 2026) and missed Oct3; continued absence/limitation warrants -3 branch.", "history": { "Marvin Session": { "2024": "Weber State: 9 games,13 catches,127 yards,TD; starts/targets/routes unavailable.", "2025": "Weber State:12 games,32 catches,415 yards,TD; starts/targets/routes unavailable.", "2026": "Weber State:13 catches,273 yards,4 TD; Oct3 absent." }, "Noah Kjar": { "2024": "Weber State:11 games,16 catches,200 yards; 7 KR for250 yards and TD.", "2025": "Weber State:3 games before season-ending injury,3 catches,48 yards,TD.", "2026": "Weber State:38 catches,621 yards,8 TD; Oct3 five catches/79 yards." }, "Tate Kjar": { "2024": "Utah State:redshirt, no college production.", "2025": "Utah State:two appearances; receiving opportunities unavailable in retained feed.", "2026": "Weber State:8 catches,129 yards,2 TD; Oct3 five catches/89 yards/2 TD." } }, "familiarity": "Tate transferred from Utah State before 2026, not an in-season trade. Noah and Tate are head coach Eric Kjar sons; Tate played for him at Corner Canyon. Session has been at Weber since 2022. Existing system/practice familiarity supported without numerical bonus.", "opportunityChange": "Oct3 brothers had10 catches/168 yards/2 TD with Session absent. Exact share of Session targets to each and routes/verified drops unreported; receiver redistribution cannot be multiplied into several -3 deductions.", "offensiveLine": "No separately verified current offensive-line absence or point conversion established.", "opponentContext": "Idaho last played Friday Oct2, an extra calendar recovery day relative Weber Oct3 double-overtime road win; physical load qualitative.", "doubleCounting": "Oct3 absent-Session result already enters form/base. No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only.", "statisticalReplacementAdjustment": null, "statisticalReplacementForecast": "Registered baseline proxy; player conversion unestimated.", "branches": [ { "condition": "Session fully available", "humanDeduction": 0 }, { "condition": "Session remains absent/materially limited, receiving redistributed", "humanDeduction": -3 } ], "appliedConservativeSensitivity": -3, "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "reviewedUTC": "2026-10-10T10:13:05.267848+00:00", "additionalIndependentAdjustment": 0, "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "jointScenario": "Only one qualifying covered-role scenario identified for this team. Joint scenario equals isolated -3 branch; no stacked QB/WR or injury-headcount deductions.", "gateOutcome": "Pre-price: retain PASS_PENDING_GATES. Parent must evaluate base and both availability branches in each of the four configurations after immutable freeze; any selection failing applicable branch becomes PASS, never opposite-side promotion.", "scoreExpression": "adjusted team points = retained registered baseline - 3.0 in qualifying branch; available branch = baseline. Statistical replacement-specific conversion is unestimated, not proven zero.", "baseAndAdjustedScores": "Parent-owned model means pending; attach by eventId and teamId without changing registered arithmetic.", "advancedUncertainty": [ "routes/targets and verified drops unavailable", "exact game-day snap allocation unconfirmed", "no calibrated player-to-score conversion", "protection-call experience and full practice participation unavailable" ] } ] } }, { "eventId": "401868360", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 2, "current_games": 1, "current_weight": 0.14285714285714285, "prior_rates": [ 10.0, 44.0 ], "current_rates": [ 0.0, 88.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.25, 23.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 39.0, 41.333333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 41.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 41.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "conditional_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 2, "pf": 10.0, "pa": 44.0, "margin": -34.0, "event_ids": [ "401767468", "401777301" ] }, "2026": { "games": 1, "pf": 0.0, "pa": 88.0, "margin": -88.0, "event_ids": [ "401869150" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.25, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 1.0833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401767369", "401767309", "401752701", "401767370", "401767371", "401767372", "401767373", "401767374", "401767375", "401767376", "401767377", "401767378" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39.0, "pa": 41.333333333333336, "margin": -2.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401896385", "401868356", "401868355", "401868151", "401868358", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -10, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 67.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 67.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "conditional_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 2, "pf": 10.0, "pa": 44.0, "margin": -34.0, "event_ids": [ "401767468", "401777301" ] }, "2026": { "games": 1, "pf": 0.0, "pa": 88.0, "margin": -88.0, "event_ids": [ "401869150" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.25, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 1.0833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401767369", "401767309", "401752701", "401767370", "401767371", "401767372", "401767373", "401767374", "401767375", "401767376", "401767377", "401767378" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39.0, "pa": 41.333333333333336, "margin": -2.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401896385", "401868356", "401868355", "401868151", "401868358", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -10, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 3.0, 67.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.0, 67.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401868360", "matchup": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Alcorn State Braves", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3771", "guid": "2e049c8d-a4b1-3f43-8c71-280e2d90b86c", "fullName": "Spinks-Casem Stadium", "address": { "city": "Lorman", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "39096", "country": "USA" }, "grass": true, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2016", "teamName": "Alcorn State Braves", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868359", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Alcorn State Braves at Grambling Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Grambling", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71245", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2755", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "2755", "displayName": "Grambling Tigers" } }, { "id": "2016", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 59.0, "displayValue": "59" }, "team": { "id": "2016", "displayName": "Alcorn State Braves" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://alcornsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "124386", "teamName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401869150", "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Houston Christian Huskies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Husky Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77074", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2277", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 88.0, "displayValue": "88" }, "team": { "id": "2277", "displayName": "Houston Christian Huskies" } }, { "id": "124386", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "124386", "displayName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://abcbuffaloes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Lorman. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history incomplete for non-DI Arkansas Baptist; cannot infer 27.8 rest days from last retained result. Actual rest unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2016", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#124386" ], "finding": "Alcorn State Braves: QB Jaylon Tolbert, RB Fredrick Robertson/Ernest Temple/Carl McDonald Jr., WR Armon Wright/Jamarr Ebron/Tyree Kelly, TE no primary receiver established; Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes: QB Charles Coney/Jayden Young, RB Darryl Searcy Jr./Terrelle Weathers/Tavion Rupert, WR Cornell Russell/Taylor Poole/Leon Elloie, TE no primary receiver established" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2016", "teamName": "Alcorn State Braves", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868359", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Alcorn State Braves at Grambling Tigers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium", "address": { "city": "Grambling", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "71245", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2755", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 63.0, "displayValue": "63" }, "team": { "id": "2755", "displayName": "Grambling Tigers" } }, { "id": "2016", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 59.0, "displayValue": "59" }, "team": { "id": "2016", "displayName": "Alcorn State Braves" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://alcornsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "124386", "teamName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401869150", "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes at Houston Christian Huskies", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-12T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Husky Stadium (TX)", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77074", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2277", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 88.0, "displayValue": "88" }, "team": { "id": "2277", "displayName": "Houston Christian Huskies" } }, { "id": "124386", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "124386", "displayName": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": null, "officialScheduleSource": "https://abcbuffaloes.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Lorman. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated.", "restCorrection": "ESPN history incomplete for non-DI Arkansas Baptist; cannot infer 27.8 rest days from last retained result. Actual rest unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Lorman&state=MS&site=JAN&textField1=31.8197&textField2=-91.1985&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:15.987294+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Sunny, with a high near 85. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 61. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.; NON-DI OPPONENT sample: preserve engine eligibility and missing-history gates.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] } }, { "eventId": "401868382", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 38.583333333333336, 33.5 ], "current_rates": [ 34.5, 33.833333333333336 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.166666666666664, 25.5 ], "current_rates": [ 32.833333333333336, 17.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 35.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 35.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.583333333333336, "pa": 33.5, "margin": 5.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754620", "401767150", "401767580", "401767142", "401767592", "401767567", "401767584", "401767534", "401767578", "401767563", "401767591" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.5, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": 0.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401917058", "401856786", "401868275", "401868346", "401868391" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.166666666666664, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767573", "401767574", "401767558", "401767575", "401767576", "401767577", "401767570", "401767578", "401767556", "401752774", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 17.0, "margin": 15.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401874042", "401868274", "401868374", "401858228", "401868052", "401868381" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.075, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "201", "side": "home", "player": "Trell Harris", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.583333333333332, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 9.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752677", "401752693", "401752706", "401752723", "401752727", "401752736", "401752743", "401752749", "401752758", "401752766", "401752780", "401752792" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 13.25, "margin": 20.0, "event_ids": [ "401856667", "401856682", "401856693", "401856704" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 13.916666666666666, "margin": 12.500000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401752675", "401752690", "401752703", "401752714", "401752729", "401752736", "401752744", "401752750", "401752757", "401752765", "401752778", "401752789" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 22.0, "pa": 16.0, "margin": 6.0, "event_ids": [ "401856664", "401856679", "401856690", "401856700" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 21.75, 23.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.625, 17.625 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.1333333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 0, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 19.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 16.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856717", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856717", "teamId": "251", "team": "Texas Longhorns", "side": "away", "opponent": "Oklahoma Sooners", "conferenceReportKey": "Texas", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870906", "name": "Arch Manning", "position": "QB", "workload": "73/115, 862 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/4870906/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141509", "name": "Karle Lacey Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "7/8, 63 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5141509/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4871053", "name": "Hollywood Smothers", "position": "RB", "workload": "41 CAR, 198 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/4871053/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685268", "name": "Raleek Brown", "position": "RB", "workload": "48 CAR, 196 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/4685268/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5203606", "name": "Derrek Cooper", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5203606/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5218633", "name": "Ryan Wingo", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 239 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5218633/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079376", "name": "Cam Coleman", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 208 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5079376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079613", "name": "Emmett Mosley V", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 173 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5079613/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5141757", "name": "Emaree Winston", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 70 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/5141757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921318", "name": "Spencer Shannon", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 24 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/athletes/4921318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Kaliq Lockett", "id": "5141524", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, -3 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Texas Longhorns: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/251/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/251/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Lockett one catch versus Wingo19/Coleman12/Mosley12; reserve output, no main-role deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856717", "teamId": "201", "team": "Oklahoma Sooners", "side": "home", "opponent": "Texas Longhorns", "conferenceReportKey": "Oklahoma", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4915980", "name": "John Mateer", "position": "QB", "workload": "72/109, 883 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/4915980/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5224237", "name": "Whitt Newbauer", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/1, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5224237/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079298", "name": "Lloyd Avant", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 164 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5079298/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5122554", "name": "Xavier Robinson", "position": "RB", "workload": "13 CAR, 50 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5122554/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159029", "name": "Jonathan Hatton Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5159029/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5080703", "name": "Isaiah Sategna III", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 267 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5080703/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912130", "name": "Trell Harris", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/4912130/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079556", "name": "Parker Livingstone", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 51 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5079556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4907786", "name": "Rocky Beers", "position": "TE", "workload": "18 REC, 255 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/4907786/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4878109", "name": "Hayden Hansen", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/4878109/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Trell Harris", "id": "4912130", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Xavier Robinson", "id": "5122554", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "13 CAR, 50 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 18 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Trynae Washington", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jack Van Dorselaer", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Harris is second WR by current receiving yards, 6/104; loss redistributes targets toward Sategna and primary receiving TE Beers (18/255). Robinson 13 carries is a secondary committee risk: retain isolated conditional-role -3 sensitivity but no unsupported automatic joint penalty. Current offensive-line outs/doubtful status increase protection uncertainty without extra coefficients.", "confirmed": [ "Trell Harris" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Trell Harris", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "Primary": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "TightenUpON": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Harris is second WR by current receiving yards, 6/104; loss redistributes targets toward Sategna and primary receiving TE Beers (18/255). Robinson 13 carries is a secondary committee risk: retain isolated conditional-role -3 sensitivity but no unsupported automatic joint penalty. Current offensive-line outs/doubtful status increase protection uncertainty without extra coefficients.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4912130", "name": "Trell Harris", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/205", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "258", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 221, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4912130/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "258", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 59, "receivingYards": 847, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4912130/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "201", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 104, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4912130/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "258" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5080703", "name": "Isaiah Sategna III", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/211", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "8", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 15, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 15, "receptions": 37, "receivingYards": 491, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5080703/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "201", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 24, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 65, "receivingYards": 948, "receivingTD": 7, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5080703/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "201", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 17, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.300000190734863, "receptions": 20, "receivingYards": 267, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5080703/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "8", "201" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079556", "name": "Parker Livingstone", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/214", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "251", "status": "available", "games": 0, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "251", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 4, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 4, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 26, "receivingYards": 491, "receivingTD": 6, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "201", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 51, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "251" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4907786", "name": "Rocky Beers", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/212", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2229", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 18, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4907786/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "36", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 31, "receivingYards": 388, "receivingTD": 7, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4907786/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "201", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 18, "receivingYards": 255, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4907786/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2229", "36" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Xavier Robinson" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Xavier Robinson" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/201/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Xavier Robinson", "id": "5122554", "status": "out", "reason": "13 carries versus Avant42 and Hatton14; secondary committee member. Retain if material ongoing workload confirmed; independent rushing pathway can combine with Harris receiver loss.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/206", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "5079298", "name": "Lloyd Avant", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 164 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5079298/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/210" }, { "id": "5159029", "name": "Jonathan Hatton Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/201/athletes/5159029/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/781" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -6, "overlap": "Rushing workload independent of named receiver loss; do not count receptions separately.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 22.9, 14.899999999999999 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 23.56898152794137, 13.644795217298633 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.320833333333333, 13.220833333333335 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.320833333333333, 13.220833333333335 ] } } } ] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.9, 20.9 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.9, 17.9 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.56898152794137, 19.644795217298633 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.56898152794137, 16.644795217298633 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.320833333333333, 19.220833333333335 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.320833333333333, 16.220833333333335 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401856718", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "145", "side": "away", "player": "Kewan Lacy", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 37.25, 20.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 35.5, 30.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 39.416666666666664, 21.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 25.4, 25.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "145", "side": "away", "player": "Kewan Lacy", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "145", "side": "away", "player": "Kewan Lacy", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 37.25, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 17.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752672", "401752686", "401752700", "401752711", "401752719", "401752733", "401752742", "401752750", "401752756", "401752761", "401752769", "401752788" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 35.5, "pa": 30.75, "margin": 4.75, "event_ids": [ "401856661", "401856676", "401856688", "401856699" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 39.416666666666664, "pa": 21.916666666666668, "margin": 17.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401752695", "401752704", "401752716", "401752725", "401752726", "401752745", "401752752", "401752758", "401752764", "401752782", "401752791" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 25.0, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401856669", "401856684", "401856695", "401856698", "401856705" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4016666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "145", "side": "away", "player": "Kewan Lacy", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 37.25, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 17.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752672", "401752686", "401752700", "401752711", "401752719", "401752733", "401752742", "401752750", "401752756", "401752761", "401752769", "401752788" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 35.5, "pa": 30.75, "margin": 4.75, "event_ids": [ "401856661", "401856676", "401856688", "401856699" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 39.416666666666664, "pa": 21.916666666666668, "margin": 17.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401752695", "401752704", "401752716", "401752725", "401752726", "401752745", "401752752", "401752758", "401752764", "401752782", "401752791" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 25.0, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401856669", "401856684", "401856695", "401856698", "401856705" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4016666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856718", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856718", "teamId": "145", "team": "Ole Miss Rebels", "side": "away", "opponent": "Vanderbilt Commodores", "conferenceReportKey": "Ole Miss", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4911529", "name": "Trinidad Chambliss", "position": "QB", "workload": "102/144, 1222 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/4911529/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141506", "name": "Deuce Knight", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/8, 68 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5141506/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5086388", "name": "Kewan Lacy", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 191 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5086388/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5084286", "name": "Makhi Frazier", "position": "RB", "workload": "17 CAR, 80 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5084286/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5209688", "name": "JT Lindsey", "position": "RB", "workload": "23 CAR, 79 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5209688/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5152158", "name": "Deuce Alexander", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 429 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5152158/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870912", "name": "Traylon Ray", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 188 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/4870912/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4711408", "name": "Horatio Fields", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 171 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/4711408/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5079647", "name": "Caleb Odom", "position": "TE", "workload": "13 REC, 201 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/5079647/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870797", "name": "Luke Hasz", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 40 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/athletes/4870797/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Izaiah Hartrup", "id": "4695341", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Joshua Dye", "id": "5125900", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 11 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Wyatt Smalley", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Kewan Lacy", "id": "5086388", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "39 CAR, 191 YDS, 4 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 16 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Official game center identifies Lacy rushing leader (191 yards), current SEC QUESTIONABLE. Replacement committee is candidate redistribution; final touch shares remain unverified. Dye's one current carry is not a second material-loss deduction.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Kewan Lacy" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Kewan Lacy", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 26.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "Primary": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "TightenUpON": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Official game center identifies Lacy rushing leader (191 yards), current SEC QUESTIONABLE. Replacement committee is candidate redistribution; final touch shares remain unverified. Dye's one current carry is not a second material-loss deduction.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5086388", "name": "Kewan Lacy", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/241", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 23, "rushingYards": 104, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.521999835968018, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 9, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5086388/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "145", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 258, "rushingYards": 1279, "rushingTD": 20, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.956999778747559, "receptions": 25, "receivingYards": 154, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5086388/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "145", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 39, "rushingYards": 191, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.900000095367432, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 16, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5086388/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "142", "145" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5084286", "name": "Makhi Frazier", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/244", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "127", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 7, "rushingYards": 21, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5084286/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "127", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 116, "rushingYards": 520, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.482999801635742, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 25, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5084286/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "145", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 17, "rushingYards": 80, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.699999809265137, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5084286/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "127" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5209688", "name": "JT Lindsey", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/779", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "145", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5209688/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "99", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5209688/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "145", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 23, "rushingYards": 79, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.4000000953674316, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5209688/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "145", "99" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "JT Lindsey", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "JT Lindsey", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Kewan Lacy" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/145/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/145/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "https://olemisssports.com/game-center/14814", "https://olemisssports.com/sports/football/roster/kewan-lacy/6486" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Dye one carry compared with Lacy39/Lindsey23/Frazier17; no material committee-loss deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856718", "teamId": "238", "team": "Vanderbilt Commodores", "side": "home", "opponent": "Ole Miss Rebels", "conferenceReportKey": "Vanderbilt", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5158948", "name": "Jared Curtis", "position": "QB", "workload": "63/98, 746 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5158948/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5121691", "name": "Blaze Berlowitz", "position": "QB", "workload": "26/48, 368 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5121691/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5030333", "name": "Sedrick Alexander", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 200 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5030333/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912302", "name": "Makhilyn Young", "position": "RB", "workload": "34 CAR, 134 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/4912302/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5218655", "name": "Jamezell Lassiter", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 61 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5218655/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5078165", "name": "Junior Sherrill", "position": "WR", "workload": "28 REC, 474 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5078165/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5149910", "name": "Tristen Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 130 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5149910/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295920", "name": "Ja'Cory Thomas", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 78 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5295920/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5041960", "name": "Jayvontay Conner", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 126 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/5041960/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4799991", "name": "Cole Spence", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 33 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/athletes/4799991/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Kahden Smith", "id": "5276669", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Vanderbilt Commodores: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/238/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/238/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.18409090909091, 29.44772727272727 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401856825", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.333333333333332, 21.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 41.0, 19.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 29.416666666666668, 26.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 40.5, 15.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 32.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 32.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 21.833333333333332, "margin": 6.5, "event_ids": [ "401756852", "401756884", "401756893", "401752939", "401756913", "401756920", "401756925", "401756929", "401756938", "401756946", "401756957", "401756962" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.0, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.2, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856787", "401856811", "401856806", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.416666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 2.75, "event_ids": [ "401756846", "401756855", "401756882", "401756888", "401756906", "401756911", "401756919", "401756932", "401756941", "401756952", "401756960", "401756965" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 40.5, "pa": 15.25, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401856771", "401856781", "401856792", "401856814" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 25.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.125, 30.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.030000000000000072, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 21.833333333333332, "margin": 6.5, "event_ids": [ "401756852", "401756884", "401756893", "401752939", "401756913", "401756920", "401756925", "401756929", "401756938", "401756946", "401756957", "401756962" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.0, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.2, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856787", "401856811", "401856806", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.416666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 2.75, "event_ids": [ "401756846", "401756855", "401756882", "401756888", "401756906", "401756911", "401756919", "401756932", "401756941", "401756952", "401756960", "401756965" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 40.5, "pa": 15.25, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401856771", "401856781", "401856792", "401856814" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 25.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.125, 30.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.030000000000000072, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856825", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856825", "teamId": "248", "team": "Houston Cougars", "side": "away", "opponent": "Kansas State Wildcats", "conferenceReportKey": "Houston", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685574", "name": "Conner Weigman", "position": "QB", "workload": "91/135, 1186 YDS, 11 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/4685574/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159035", "name": "Keisean Henderson", "position": "QB", "workload": "6/8, 83 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5159035/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5078223", "name": "Re'Shaun Sanford II", "position": "RB", "workload": "55 CAR, 314 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5078223/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4816098", "name": "Makhi Hughes", "position": "RB", "workload": "66 CAR, 309 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/4816098/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5149563", "name": "DJ Butler", "position": "RB", "workload": "10 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5149563/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5077060", "name": "Amare Thomas", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 330 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5077060/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4879567", "name": "Trent Walker", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 198 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/4879567/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146728", "name": "Koby Young", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 176 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5146728/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5120299", "name": "Patrick Overmyer", "position": "TE", "workload": "25 REC, 317 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5120299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5125734", "name": "Luke McGary", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 25 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/athletes/5125734/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Muizz Tounkara", "id": "5207662", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jacory Thurman", "id": "5215578", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Houston Cougars: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/248/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/248/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856825", "teamId": "2306", "team": "Kansas State Wildcats", "side": "home", "opponent": "Houston Cougars", "conferenceReportKey": "Kansas State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870857", "name": "Avery Johnson", "position": "QB", "workload": "88/133, 910 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4870857/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5124584", "name": "Blake Barnett", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/5, 41 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5124584/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5125335", "name": "Rodney Fields Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "49 CAR, 274 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5125335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078916", "name": "Joe Jackson", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 189 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5078916/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193496", "name": "Jay Harris", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 88 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5193496/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5384681", "name": "Derrick Salley Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 178 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5384681/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078225", "name": "Jaron Tibbs", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 168 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/5078225/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921113", "name": "Josh Manning", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 149 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4921113/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4804882", "name": "Garrett Oakley", "position": "TE", "workload": "13 REC, 147 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4804882/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4920187", "name": "Will Anciaux", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 84 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/athletes/4920187/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Blake Barnett", "id": "5124584", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "4/5, 41 YDS" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 3 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Dillon Duff", "id": "5164321", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Kansas State Wildcats: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2306/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2306/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Barnett five attempts compared with Johnson133; reserve availability is not starting-QB replacement.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858255", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 34.0, 28.692307692307693 ], "current_rates": [ 36.25, 11.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 33.083333333333336, 25.0 ], "current_rates": [ 27.0, 26.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34.0, "pa": 28.692307692307693, "margin": 5.307692307692307, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401752825", "401754534", "401754538", "401754545", "401754551", "401754566", "401754577", "401754590", "401754593", "401754600", "401754610", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.25, "pa": 11.0, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401858217", "401858231", "401858244" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.083333333333336, "pa": 25.0, "margin": 8.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754375", "401754622", "401754623", "401754542", "401754546", "401754560", "401754566", "401754571", "401754579", "401754592", "401754601", "401752786" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 26.0, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401856776", "401856681", "401858228", "401858240" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.125, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.1474358974358974, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34.0, "pa": 28.692307692307693, "margin": 5.307692307692307, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401752825", "401754534", "401754538", "401754545", "401754551", "401754566", "401754577", "401754590", "401754593", "401754600", "401754610", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.25, "pa": 11.0, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401858217", "401858231", "401858244" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.083333333333336, "pa": 25.0, "margin": 8.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754375", "401754622", "401754623", "401754542", "401754546", "401754560", "401754566", "401754571", "401754579", "401754592", "401754601", "401752786" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 26.0, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401856776", "401856681", "401858228", "401858240" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.125, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.1474358974358974, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858255", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858255", "teamId": "150", "team": "Duke Blue Devils", "side": "away", "opponent": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "conferenceReportKey": "Duke", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4694149", "name": "Walker Eget", "position": "QB", "workload": "58/93, 721 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/4694149/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5185699", "name": "Dan Mahan", "position": "QB", "workload": "6/9, 126 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/5185699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5164332", "name": "Nate Sheppard", "position": "RB", "workload": "91 CAR, 644 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/5164332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4873588", "name": "CJ Campbell Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "36 CAR, 139 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/4873588/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5272781", "name": "Jayvian Tanelus", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 90 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/5272781/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4879192", "name": "Jonah Burton", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 187 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/4879192/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5200108", "name": "Jaivon Solomon", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/5200108/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5084409", "name": "Jared Richardson", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/5084409/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4869728", "name": "Jeremiah Hasley", "position": "TE", "workload": "13 REC, 195 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/4869728/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "3949586", "name": "Jake Taylor", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 33 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/athletes/3949586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Jamien Little", "id": "5208403", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Blake Rohrer", "id": "5372137", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Lawrence Gardner", "id": "5297369", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Qeanu Johnson", "id": "5201874", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Javen Nicholas", "id": "5081131", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, -1 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Duke Blue Devils: current report contains 5 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/150/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/150/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858255", "teamId": "59", "team": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "side": "home", "opponent": "Duke Blue Devils", "conferenceReportKey": "Georgia Tech", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5191162", "name": "Alberto Mendoza", "position": "QB", "workload": "84/123, 975 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5191162/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5207610", "name": "Grady Adamson", "position": "QB", "workload": "0/1, 0 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5207610/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4870760", "name": "Justice Haynes", "position": "RB", "workload": "73 CAR, 393 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/4870760/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5103639", "name": "Trelain Maddox", "position": "RB", "workload": "15 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5103639/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5155366", "name": "Malachi Hosley", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 61 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5155366/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5199859", "name": "Dalen Penson", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 241 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5199859/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141362", "name": "Jordan Allen", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 213 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5141362/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4703030", "name": "Jaiven Plummer", "position": "WR", "workload": "2 REC, 60 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/4703030/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5215629", "name": "Kevin Roche Jr.", "position": "TE", "workload": "18 REC, 200 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5215629/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5085509", "name": "Chris Corbo", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 42 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5085509/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Malachi Hosley", "id": "5155366", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "16 CAR, 61 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Kentrell Davis", "id": "5209922", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Coi Jean-Noel", "id": "5374984", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jaiven Plummer", "id": "4703030", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 60 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Malachi Hosley" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Malachi Hosley" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/59/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Malachi Hosley", "id": "5155366", "status": "out", "reason": "16 carries versus Haynes73 and Maddox15; secondary committee role comparable to other reserve. Retain isolated if material workload confirmed; do not assert automatic production deduction.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/301", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "4870760", "name": "Justice Haynes", "position": "RB", "workload": "73 CAR, 393 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/4870760/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/306" }, { "id": "5103639", "name": "Trelain Maddox", "position": "RB", "workload": "15 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/59/athletes/5103639/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/307" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -3, "overlap": "Rushing workload independent of named receiver loss; do not count receptions separately.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 29.4, 23.88269230769231 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 29.4, 23.88269230769231 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 26.222363923104066, 28.56861852148741 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 26.222363923104066, 28.56861852148741 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 32.4599358974359, 21.296474358974358 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 32.4599358974359, 21.296474358974358 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 32.4599358974359, 21.296474358974358 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 32.4599358974359, 21.296474358974358 ] } } } ] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858257", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.833333333333332, 29.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 17.4, 38.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 42.0, 17.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 41.2, 11.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 16.0, 38.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.0, 38.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "adjusted_score": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "conditional_score": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 11.5, 43.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 11.5, 43.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401754526", "401754533", "401754539", "401754549", "401754561", "401754567", "401754572", "401754582", "401754588", "401754599", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.4, "pa": 38.2, "margin": -20.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401858206", "401858231", "401858240", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 42.0, "pa": 17.583333333333332, "margin": 24.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754522", "401752707", "401752848", "401752717", "401757165", "401754562", "401752871", "401754583", "401757166", "401754597", "401754604", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 11.8, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858438", "401859184", "401858453", "401858467", "401858250" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -8.495000000000003, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 8.0, 47.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8.0, 47.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401754526", "401754533", "401754539", "401754549", "401754561", "401754567", "401754572", "401754582", "401754588", "401754599", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.4, "pa": 38.2, "margin": -20.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401858206", "401858231", "401858240", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 42.0, "pa": 17.583333333333332, "margin": 24.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754522", "401752707", "401752848", "401752717", "401757165", "401754562", "401752871", "401754583", "401757166", "401754597", "401754604", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 11.8, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858438", "401859184", "401858453", "401858467", "401858250" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -8.495000000000003, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 8.0, 47.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8.0, 47.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858257", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858257", "teamId": "24", "team": "Stanford Cardinal", "side": "away", "opponent": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4878681", "name": "Davis Warren", "position": "QB", "workload": "102/173, 1207 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/4878681/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5211073", "name": "Michael Mitchell Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "5/8, 32 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5211073/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5143191", "name": "Micah Ford", "position": "RB", "workload": "82 CAR, 302 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5143191/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870802", "name": "Sedrick Irvin", "position": "RB", "workload": "35 CAR, 145 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/4870802/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5156056", "name": "Champ Hampton", "position": "RB", "workload": "6 CAR, 27 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5156056/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5231354", "name": "Caden High", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 266 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5231354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5217152", "name": "Zion Robinson", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 155 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5217152/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5094032", "name": "Nico Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 148 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5094032/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5146764", "name": "Benji Blackburn", "position": "TE", "workload": "20 REC, 159 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5146764/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5077804", "name": "Chico Holt", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 17 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/athletes/5077804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Stanford Cardinal: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/24/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/24/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858257", "teamId": "87", "team": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish", "side": "home", "opponent": "Stanford Cardinal", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079369", "name": "CJ Carr", "position": "QB", "workload": "88/124, 1197 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5079369/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159115", "name": "Noah Grubbs", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/15, 108 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5159115/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079742", "name": "Aneyas Williams", "position": "RB", "workload": "60 CAR, 266 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5079742/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5189515", "name": "Nolan James Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "55 CAR, 262 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5189515/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159087", "name": "Jonaz Walton", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 228 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5159087/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5150424", "name": "Jordan Faison", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 371 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5150424/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079475", "name": "Micah Gilbert", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 368 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5079475/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870768", "name": "Jaden Greathouse", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/4870768/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870733", "name": "Cooper Flanagan", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 48 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/4870733/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5142596", "name": "James Flanigan", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 19 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/athletes/5142596/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Notre Dame Fighting Irish: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/87/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/87/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.818181818181817, 38.20454545454545 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858259", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 20.386363636363633 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.416666666666668, 30.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 41.2, 19.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.833333333333332, 26.5 ], "current_rates": [ 27.0, 26.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 23.873504124147136 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -8.75, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752695", "401754536", "401754617", "401754548", "401754556", "401754560", "401754372", "401754580", "401754594", "401754603", "401754613" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.833333333333332, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401754530", "401752840", "401754540", "401754544", "401754551", "401754371", "401754372", "401754576", "401754585", "401754599", "401754609" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 26.6, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.3916666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -8.75, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752695", "401754536", "401754617", "401754548", "401754556", "401754560", "401754372", "401754580", "401754594", "401754603", "401754613" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.833333333333332, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401754530", "401752840", "401754540", "401754544", "401754551", "401754371", "401754372", "401754576", "401754585", "401754599", "401754609" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 26.6, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.3916666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858259", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858259", "teamId": "259", "team": "Virginia Tech Hokies", "side": "away", "opponent": "California Golden Bears", "conferenceReportKey": "Virginia Tech", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5144078", "name": "Ethan Grunkemeyer", "position": "QB", "workload": "131/177, 1446 YDS, 11 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5144078/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141366", "name": "Bryce Baker", "position": "QB", "workload": "11/14, 127 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5141366/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5214409", "name": "Jeffrey Overton Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "77 CAR, 455 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5214409/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5260847", "name": "Marcellous Hawkins Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "58 CAR, 238 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5260847/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159010", "name": "Messiah Mickens", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 34 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5159010/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5218787", "name": "Que'Sean Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "33 REC, 371 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5218787/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4918417", "name": "Ayden Greene", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 213 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/4918417/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158951", "name": "Davion Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5158951/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5138451", "name": "Luke Reynolds", "position": "TE", "workload": "37 REC, 373 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5138451/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5161652", "name": "Ja'Ricous Hairston", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/athletes/5161652/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Takye Heath", "id": "4922987", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Shamarius Peterkin", "id": "5141601", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Bill Davis", "id": "5156906", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "L.J. Booker", "id": "5230251", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Virginia Tech Hokies: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/259/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/259/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858259", "teamId": "25", "team": "California Golden Bears", "side": "home", "opponent": "Virginia Tech Hokies", "conferenceReportKey": "California", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5164313", "name": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "position": "QB", "workload": "107/164, 1180 YDS, 8 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5054036", "name": "Jackson Brousseau", "position": "QB", "workload": "29/48, 299 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5147861", "name": "Adam Mohammed", "position": "RB", "workload": "73 CAR, 336 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5192899", "name": "Ashten Emory", "position": "RB", "workload": "28 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164327", "name": "Anthony League", "position": "RB", "workload": "7 CAR, 17 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5164327/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5075390", "name": "Ian Strong", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 299 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5075390/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921110", "name": "Chase Hendricks", "position": "WR", "workload": "32 REC, 267 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/4921110/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4688541", "name": "Kyion Grayes", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/4688541/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5165154", "name": "Mason Mini", "position": "TE", "workload": "12 REC, 152 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5165154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5217177", "name": "Taimane Purcell", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/athletes/5217177/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Carter Vargas", "id": "5148905", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "4 CAR, 14 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 6 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Adam Mohammed", "id": "5147861", "position": "RB", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "73 CAR, 336 YDS, 3 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "17 REC, 168 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "id": "5164313", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "107/164, 1180 YDS, 8 TD, 5 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "13 CAR, -40 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Chase Hendricks", "id": "4921110", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, -1 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "32 REC, 267 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "QB QUESTIONABLE and lead RB DOUBTFUL, neither silently converted OUT. Brousseau's UNLV relief: 19/32, 200 yards, two TD, no INT. Separate isolated -3 branches plus combined -6 for QB passing role and RB rushing workload; Mohammed receiving targets overlap passing loss and are not counted a third time. Rolovich retained as QB coach provides verified system context, not automatic score credit.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "Adam Mohammed" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "Primary": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } }, { "name": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "Primary": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "QB QUESTIONABLE and lead RB DOUBTFUL, neither silently converted OUT. Brousseau's UNLV relief: 19/32, 200 yards, two TD, no INT. Separate isolated -3 branches plus combined -6 for QB passing role and RB rushing workload; Mohammed receiving targets overlap passing loss and are not counted a third time. Rolovich retained as QB coach provides verified system context, not automatic score credit.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.727272727272727, 20.386363636363633 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.129854652453645, 23.873504124147136 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5164313", "name": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/331", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 453, "passingYards": 3117, "passingTD": 17, "interceptions": 9, "sacks": 29, "completionPct": 63.57600021362305, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.88100004196167, "rushAttempts": 56, "rushingYards": -135, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -2.4110000133514404, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 164, "passingYards": 1180, "passingTD": 8, "interceptions": 5, "sacks": 8, "completionPct": 65.19999694824219, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.199999809265137, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": -40, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -3.0999999046325684, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5164313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "25" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5147861", "name": "Adam Mohammed", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/330", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "264", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 37, "rushingYards": 188, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.080999851226807, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 30, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "264", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 104, "rushingYards": 517, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.9710001945495605, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 144, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 73, "rushingYards": 336, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.599999904632568, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 168, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5147861/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "264" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5054036", "name": "Jackson Brousseau", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/333", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "36", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 6, "passingYards": 15, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 50, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 2.5, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 8, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "36", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 201, "passingYards": 1354, "passingTD": 9, "interceptions": 3, "sacks": 21, "completionPct": 63.68199920654297, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.736000061035156, "rushAttempts": 54, "rushingYards": 15, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0.27799999713897705, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 48, "passingYards": 299, "passingTD": 2, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 2, "completionPct": 60.400001525878906, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.199999809265137, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 1, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0.30000001192092896, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5054036/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "36" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5192899", "name": "Ashten Emory", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/335", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 6, "rushingYards": 23, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.8329999446868896, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 119, "rushingYards": 569, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.7820000648498535, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 103, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 28, "rushingYards": 103, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.700000047683716, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 37, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5192899/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2638" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5218743", "name": "Carson Perry-Smith", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/765", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5218743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5218743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 5, "rushingYards": 14, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.799999952316284, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 53, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5218743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "25" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Carson Perry-Smith", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Adam Mohammed" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/25/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/25/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "https://calbears.com/news/2026/10/6/football-bears-to-host-hokies-in-berkeley-for-first-time", "https://calbears.com/news/2026/10/4/football-postgame-notes-unlv-39-california-31", "https://calbears.com/staff-directory/nick-rolovich/5517" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Vargas four carries versus Mohammed73/Emory28; no additional material-loss deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.727272727272727, 20.386363636363633 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.129854652453645, 23.873504124147136 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858480", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.333333333333332, 23.25 ], "current_rates": [ 30.6, 26.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.583333333333332, 29.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 18.2, 23.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 24.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 27.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 6.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752795", "401752825", "401752829", "401752843", "401752850", "401752861", "401752865", "401752880", "401752891", "401752906", "401752915", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.6, "pa": 26.0, "margin": 4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401858217", "401858448", "401858465", "401858472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.583333333333332, "pa": 29.916666666666668, "margin": -5.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401752816", "401752834", "401752847", "401752860", "401752863", "401752878", "401752881", "401752888", "401752903", "401752913", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 23.2, "margin": -5.0, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401858440", "401858453", "401858464", "401858479" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.625, 23.916666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.9, 22.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.101666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 19.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858480", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858480", "teamId": "356", "team": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "side": "away", "opponent": "Michigan State Spartans", "conferenceReportKey": "Illinois", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4795295", "name": "Katin Houser", "position": "QB", "workload": "102/155, 1246 YDS, 11 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/4795295/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4827047", "name": "Aidan Laughery", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 321 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/4827047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5106299", "name": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 225 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/5106299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5203604", "name": "Javari Barnett", "position": "RB", "workload": "10 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/5203604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4923226", "name": "Collin Dixon", "position": "WR", "workload": "40 REC, 546 YDS, 8 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/4923226/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5100582", "name": "Hudson Clement", "position": "WR", "workload": "21 REC, 299 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/5100582/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4689721", "name": "Ty Robinson", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 159 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/4689721/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5154729", "name": "Davin Stoffel", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 38 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/5154729/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5076651", "name": "Christian Abney", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 13 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/athletes/5076651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "id": "5106299", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "50 CAR, 225 YDS, 1 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 46 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Alex Perry", "id": "5084133", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "BJ Thurman", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jayshon Platt", "id": "4834817", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Valentine's 50 carries exceed Laughery's 45, verifying material committee role despite fewer yards. Laughery 321 yards becomes main redistribution candidate. Receiving loss only three catches and not an independent second deduction.", "confirmed": [ "Ca'Lil Valentine" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 24.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 20.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "TightenUpON": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Valentine's 50 carries exceed Laughery's 45, verifying material committee role despite fewer yards. Laughery 321 yards becomes main redistribution candidate. Receiving loss only three catches and not an independent second deduction.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5106299", "name": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/373", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 52, "rushingYards": 209, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.019000053405762, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 30, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5106299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 123, "rushingYards": 549, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.4629998207092285, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 27, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5106299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 50, "rushingYards": 225, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.5, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 46, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5106299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "356" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4827047", "name": "Aidan Laughery", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/375", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 81, "rushingYards": 522, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.443999767303467, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 30, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4827047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 62, "rushingYards": 305, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.919000148773193, "receptions": 9, "receivingYards": 54, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4827047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 45, "rushingYards": 321, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 7.099999904632568, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 20, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4827047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "356" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5203604", "name": "Javari Barnett", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/766", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5203604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "356", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5203604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 10, "rushingYards": 54, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.400000095367432, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5203604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "356" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4826636", "name": "Jordan Anderson", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/767", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 5, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4826636/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 7, "rushingYards": 26, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.7139999866485596, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4826636/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 12, "rushingYards": 49, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.099999904632568, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4826636/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "356" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Javari Barnett", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Javari Barnett", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/356/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/356/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858480", "teamId": "127", "team": "Michigan State Spartans", "side": "home", "opponent": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "conferenceReportKey": "Michigan State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5146670", "name": "Alessio Milivojevic", "position": "QB", "workload": "80/129, 851 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5146670/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4700135", "name": "Cam Fancher", "position": "QB", "workload": "8/11, 59 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/4700135/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5086034", "name": "Cam Edwards", "position": "RB", "workload": "64 CAR, 304 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5086034/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5081332", "name": "Jaziun Patterson", "position": "RB", "workload": "44 CAR, 162 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5081332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5258024", "name": "Marvis Parrish", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 89 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5258024/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5260691", "name": "Rodney Bullard Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 206 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5260691/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4869599", "name": "Chrishon McCray", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 150 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/4869599/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4905609", "name": "Fredrick Moore", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/4905609/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5214448", "name": "Jayden Savoury", "position": "TE", "workload": "17 REC, 179 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/5214448/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4894451", "name": "Brennan Parachek", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 50 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/athletes/4894451/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Cam Edwards", "id": "5086034", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "64 CAR, 304 YDS, 3 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "4 REC, 35 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Jay Coyne", "id": "5084950", "position": "FB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Joe Caudill", "id": "5264656", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Darrin Jones Jr.", "id": "5295653", "position": "RB", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Cam Fancher", "id": "4700135", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "8/11, 59 YDS, 1 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "10 CAR, 27 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Edwards leads 64 carries/304 yards. Patterson 44/162 and Parrish 29/89 make redistribution plausible. QB Fancher is questionable reserve (11 attempts versus Milivojevic 129); this alone does not justify starting-QB -3.", "confirmed": [ "Cam Edwards" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 23.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Edwards leads 64 carries/304 yards. Patterson 44/162 and Parrish 29/89 make redistribution plausible. QB Fancher is questionable reserve (11 attempts versus Milivojevic 129); this alone does not justify starting-QB -3.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5086034", "name": "Cam Edwards", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/358", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "41", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 129, "rushingYards": 756, "rushingTD": 7, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.860000133514404, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 148, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5086034/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "41", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 199, "rushingYards": 1132, "rushingTD": 14, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.688000202178955, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 187, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5086034/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "127", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 64, "rushingYards": 304, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.800000190734863, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 35, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5086034/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "41" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5081332", "name": "Jaziun Patterson", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/362", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2294", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 54, "rushingYards": 235, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.3520002365112305, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5081332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2294", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 57, "rushingYards": 299, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.245999813079834, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 9, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5081332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "127", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 44, "rushingYards": 162, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.700000047683716, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5081332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2294" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5258024", "name": "Marvis Parrish", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/363", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "127", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5258024/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "98", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 99, "rushingYards": 511, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.1620001792907715, "receptions": 36, "receivingYards": 203, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5258024/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "127", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 29, "rushingYards": 89, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.0999999046325684, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 15, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5258024/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "127", "98" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Marvis Parrish", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/127/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/127/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Fancher eleven attempts versus Milivojevic129; reserve QB, no second QB deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858484", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 33.38980096620906 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.705301492326623, 33.38980096620906 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -15.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401752823", "401752837", "401752851", "401752855", "401752863", "401752879", "401752885", "401752895", "401752900", "401752910", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 44.75, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 26.0, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858443", "401858458", "401858462" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.166666666666664, "pa": 14.833333333333334, "margin": 23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401752804", "401752824", "401752831", "401752841", "401752854", "401752870", "401752876", "401752886", "401752898", "401752904", "401752911", "401752917" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 47.5, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 24.25, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401856782", "401858455", "401858469" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.5, 35.791666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.0, 33.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.683333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858484", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858484", "teamId": "26", "team": "UCLA Bruins", "side": "away", "opponent": "Oregon Ducks", "conferenceReportKey": "UCLA", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870799", "name": "Nico Iamaleava", "position": "QB", "workload": "62/99, 820 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/4870799/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5142594", "name": "Madden Iamaleava", "position": "QB", "workload": "0/1, 0 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/5142594/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4912342", "name": "Wayne Knight", "position": "RB", "workload": "49 CAR, 445 YDS, 9 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/4912342/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083175", "name": "Anthony Woods", "position": "RB", "workload": "36 CAR, 269 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/5083175/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5114332", "name": "Jaivian Thomas", "position": "RB", "workload": "28 CAR, 155 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/5114332/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4899366", "name": "Semaj Morgan", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 174 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/4899366/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5209464", "name": "Brian Rowe Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 163 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/5209464/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921306", "name": "Mikey Matthews", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 88 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/4921306/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4869442", "name": "Brayden Loftin", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 58 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/4869442/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5084910", "name": "Josh Phifer", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 12 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/5084910/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Mikey Matthews", "id": "4921306", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "4 REC, 88 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Jonah Smith", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "UCLA Bruins: current report contains 2 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Mikey Matthews" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Mikey Matthews" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/26/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Mikey Matthews", "id": "4921306", "status": "out", "reason": "Four catches/88 yards is third WR by yards behind Morgan14 and Rowe11 catches. Retain main-role-if-confirmed sensitivity; low opportunity alone does not settle recent routes.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/266", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "4899366", "name": "Semaj Morgan", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 174 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/4899366/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/272" }, { "id": "5209464", "name": "Brian Rowe Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 163 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/26/athletes/5209464/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/273" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -3, "overlap": "Shared passing-drive/target uncertainty retained; no automatic extra joint deduction.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 19.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 19.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 15.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 15.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 18.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 18.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 18.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 18.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ] } } } ] } }, { "eventId": "401858484", "teamId": "2483", "team": "Oregon Ducks", "side": "home", "opponent": "UCLA Bruins", "conferenceReportKey": "Oregon", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870921", "name": "Dante Moore", "position": "QB", "workload": "69/99, 926 YDS, 9 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/4870921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079572", "name": "Dylan Raiola", "position": "QB", "workload": "30/36, 413 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5079572/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5141423", "name": "Jordon Davison", "position": "RB", "workload": "49 CAR, 260 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5141423/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141499", "name": "Dierre Hill Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 184 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5141499/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5198506", "name": "Brandon Smith", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 85 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5198506/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4685565", "name": "Evan Stewart", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 278 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/4685565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141586", "name": "Dakorien Moore", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 234 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5141586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079519", "name": "Jeremiah McClellan", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 170 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5079519/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4922988", "name": "Jamari Johnson", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 176 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/4922988/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5159026", "name": "Kendre Harrison", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/athletes/5159026/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Jeremiah McClellan", "id": "5079519", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 170 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Dante Moore", "id": "4870921", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "69/99, 926 YDS, 9 TD" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "10 CAR, -7 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Simeon Price", "id": "4684421", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jack Ressler", "id": "5126533", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "confirmed": [ "Dante Moore", "Jeremiah McClellan" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "Primary": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "TightenUpON": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] } }, { "name": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "Primary": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "TightenUpON": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": -6 }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4870921", "name": "Dante Moore", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/253", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 7, "passingYards": 49, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 6, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 313, "passingYards": 2733, "passingTD": 24, "interceptions": 6, "sacks": 12, "completionPct": 72.52400207519531, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.732000350952148, "rushAttempts": 57, "rushingYards": 191, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.3510000705718994, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 99, "passingYards": 926, "passingTD": 9, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 6, "completionPct": 69.69999694824219, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 9.399999618530273, "rushAttempts": 10, "rushingYards": -7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -0.699999988079071, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870921/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2483" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079519", "name": "Jeremiah McClellan", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/252", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 24, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079519/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 25, "receivingYards": 397, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079519/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 170, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079519/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2483" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079572", "name": "Dylan Raiola", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/256", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "158", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 380, "passingYards": 2595, "passingTD": 12, "interceptions": 10, "sacks": 26, "completionPct": 66.5790023803711, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.828999996185303, "rushAttempts": 47, "rushingYards": -68, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -1.4470000267028809, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079572/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "158", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 250, "passingYards": 2000, "passingTD": 18, "interceptions": 6, "sacks": 27, "completionPct": 72.4000015258789, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8, "rushAttempts": 46, "rushingYards": -87, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -1.8910000324249268, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079572/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 36, "passingYards": 413, "passingTD": 5, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 83.30000305175781, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 11.5, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -9, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -9, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079572/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "158" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4685565", "name": "Evan Stewart", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/261", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 48, "receivingYards": 613, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4685565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4685565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -2, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -2, "receptions": 22, "receivingYards": 278, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4685565/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2483" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141586", "name": "Dakorien Moore", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/262", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2483", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 49, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 12.25, "receptions": 28, "receivingYards": 443, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 234, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141586/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2483" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4922988", "name": "Jamari Johnson", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/263", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "97", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 158, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4922988/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 23, "receivingYards": 320, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4922988/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2483", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 11, "receivingYards": 176, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4922988/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "97", "2483" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Evan Stewart", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Dakorien Moore", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2483/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2483/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "https://goducks.com/news/2026/10/6/football-ducks-host-bruins-in-top-25-battle" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401862796", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 14.333333333333334, 36.333333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 17.2, 40.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 44.76923076923077, 24.923076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 40.6, 33.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 41.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 41.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 47.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 47.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 36.333333333333336, "margin": -22.0, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401754527", "401762464", "401762468", "401762475", "401762483", "401762489", "401762492", "401762504", "401762507", "401752776", "401762518" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 40.6, "margin": -23.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401862694", "401856676", "401864574", "401862780", "401862787" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.76923076923077, "pa": 24.923076923076923, "margin": 19.846153846153843, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401762461", "401752949", "401762469", "401761617", "401762481", "401762491", "401762492", "401762499", "401762506", "401762514", "401762442", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 40.6, "pa": 33.0, "margin": 7.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401862705", "401860889", "401862783", "401862786" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.628205128205128, 40.55128205128205 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.1, 40.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.284615384615385, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15.0, 49.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.0, 49.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 36.333333333333336, "margin": -22.0, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401754527", "401762464", "401762468", "401762475", "401762483", "401762489", "401762492", "401762504", "401762507", "401752776", "401762518" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 40.6, "margin": -23.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401862694", "401856676", "401864574", "401862780", "401862787" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.76923076923077, "pa": 24.923076923076923, "margin": 19.846153846153843, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401762461", "401752949", "401762469", "401761617", "401762481", "401762491", "401762492", "401762499", "401762506", "401762514", "401762442", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 40.6, "pa": 33.0, "margin": 7.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401862705", "401860889", "401862783", "401862786" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.628205128205128, 40.55128205128205 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.1, 40.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.284615384615385, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15.0, 49.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.0, 49.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401862796", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401862796", "teamId": "2429", "team": "Charlotte 49ers", "side": "away", "opponent": "North Texas Mean Green", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5089540", "name": "Cole Gonzales", "position": "QB", "workload": "79/127, 802 YDS, 3 TD, 7 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5089540/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4801306", "name": "Conner Harrell", "position": "QB", "workload": "13/19, 93 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/4801306/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5148741", "name": "Khamani Alexander", "position": "RB", "workload": "44 CAR, 201 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5148741/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4879655", "name": "Henry Rutledge", "position": "RB", "workload": "23 CAR, 170 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/4879655/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5089860", "name": "Chance Williams", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 116 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5089860/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5153730", "name": "Jaden Barnes", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 249 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5153730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5156879", "name": "Jaylen Hampton", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 224 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5156879/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5228760", "name": "Derrick Eley", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 189 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5228760/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5151037", "name": "Jason Jeffares", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 44 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/5151037/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4606685", "name": "Logan Mauldin", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 31 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/athletes/4606685/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Charlotte 49ers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2429/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2429/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401862796", "teamId": "249", "team": "North Texas Mean Green", "side": "home", "opponent": "Charlotte 49ers", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4801307", "name": "Tayven Jackson", "position": "QB", "workload": "119/167, 1519 YDS, 10 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/4801307/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5215310", "name": "Chaston Ditta", "position": "QB", "workload": "10/11, 126 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5215310/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4911971", "name": "Jahiem White", "position": "RB", "workload": "84 CAR, 582 YDS, 8 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/4911971/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5238020", "name": "Brendon Haygood", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 114 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5238020/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5227742", "name": "Nick Osho", "position": "RB", "workload": "11 CAR, 41 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5227742/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5122082", "name": "Justin Stevenson", "position": "WR", "workload": "24 REC, 331 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5122082/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5125905", "name": "Corri Milliner", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 325 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5125905/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5108225", "name": "Josiah Martin", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 161 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5108225/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4827049", "name": "Max Reese", "position": "TE", "workload": "14 REC, 211 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/4827049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295066", "name": "Brec Long", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 87 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/athletes/5295066/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "North Texas Mean Green: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/249/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/249/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401862799", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.166666666666668, 28.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 27.8, 21.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 31.166666666666668, 26.0 ], "current_rates": [ 25.25, 22.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 28.916666666666668, "margin": -5.75, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401757229", "401762465", "401756900", "401762474", "401762478", "401762486", "401762495", "401762505", "401752945", "401762512", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401856697", "401862786" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.166666666666668, "pa": 26.0, "margin": 5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762434", "401762458", "401762465", "401762473", "401760381", "401762484", "401762493", "401762499", "401757166", "401762510", "401762516", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 25.25, "pa": 22.75, "margin": 2.5, "event_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6816666666666666, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 28.916666666666668, "margin": -5.75, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401757229", "401762465", "401756900", "401762474", "401762478", "401762486", "401762495", "401762505", "401752945", "401762512", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401856697", "401862786" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.166666666666668, "pa": 26.0, "margin": 5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762434", "401762458", "401762465", "401762473", "401760381", "401762484", "401762493", "401762499", "401757166", "401762510", "401762516", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 25.25, "pa": 22.75, "margin": 2.5, "event_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6816666666666666, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.0, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401862799", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401862799", "teamId": "202", "team": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "side": "away", "opponent": "Navy Midshipmen", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5224011", "name": "Baylor Hayes", "position": "QB", "workload": "58/96, 564 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/5224011/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4565355", "name": "Dexter Williams II", "position": "QB", "workload": "34/59, 340 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4565355/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4685699", "name": "Damari Alston", "position": "RB", "workload": "68 CAR, 292 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4685699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295930", "name": "Trequan Jones", "position": "RB", "workload": "35 CAR, 221 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/5295930/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4920162", "name": "Seth Davis", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4920162/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4710860", "name": "Oran Singleton Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 306 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4710860/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4429804", "name": "Jimmy Calloway", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 123 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/4429804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5229589", "name": "Javon Ross", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/5229589/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5296086", "name": "Chris Gacayan II", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 55 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/5296086/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5217701", "name": "Jackson Shockley", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 22 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/athletes/5217701/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/202/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/202/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401862799", "teamId": "2426", "team": "Navy Midshipmen", "side": "home", "opponent": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5220473", "name": "Jackson Gutierrez", "position": "QB", "workload": "17/40, 344 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5220473/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158343", "name": "Braxton Woodson", "position": "QB", "workload": "7/20, 71 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5158343/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5158373", "name": "Vic Listorti", "position": "RB", "workload": "28 CAR, 175 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5158373/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5391358", "name": "Jacob Williams", "position": "RB", "workload": "5 CAR, 34 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5391358/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295391", "name": "Christian Cromer", "position": "RB", "workload": "5 CAR, 13 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5295391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5391321", "name": "Truman Brasfield", "position": "WR", "workload": "2 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5391321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158341", "name": "Luke Hutchison", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 75 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5158341/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5220476", "name": "Charles Robinson", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5220476/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5212655", "name": "Jordan Collins", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/athletes/5212655/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Navy Midshipmen: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2426/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2426/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401866435", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.083333333333332, 29.75 ], "current_rates": [ 22.166666666666668, 25.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.25, 27.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 19.0, 33.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761594", "401762795", "401752698", "401761610", "401762826", "401762831", "401762836", "401762841", "401762848", "401762855", "401762861", "401762869" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.166666666666668, "pa": 25.0, "margin": -2.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401864495", "401858440", "401858460", "401866427", "401866433" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.25, "pa": 27.416666666666668, "margin": -5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762789", "401752810", "401762463", "401762821", "401762824", "401762829", "401762833", "401762838", "401762844", "401762851", "401762856", "401762862" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.0, "pa": 33.6, "margin": -14.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858204", "401866412", "401858451", "401864512", "401866430" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 26.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.883333333333333, 22.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.126666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761594", "401762795", "401752698", "401761610", "401762826", "401762831", "401762836", "401762841", "401762848", "401762855", "401762861", "401762869" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.166666666666668, "pa": 25.0, "margin": -2.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401864495", "401858440", "401858460", "401866427", "401866433" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.25, "pa": 27.416666666666668, "margin": -5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762789", "401752810", "401762463", "401762821", "401762824", "401762829", "401762833", "401762838", "401762844", "401762851", "401762856", "401762862" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.0, "pa": 33.6, "margin": -14.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858204", "401866412", "401858451", "401864512", "401866430" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 26.0 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.883333333333333, 22.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.126666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401866435", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401866435", "teamId": "2199", "team": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "side": "away", "opponent": "Akron Zips", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4690158", "name": "Noah Kim", "position": "QB", "workload": "127/203, 1187 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/4690158/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5144207", "name": "Jace Stuckey", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/2, 14 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5144207/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5222594", "name": "Amareon Blue", "position": "RB", "workload": "60 CAR, 309 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5222594/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4608922", "name": "Braydon Bennett", "position": "RB", "workload": "44 CAR, 195 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/4608922/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5125733", "name": "Joey Mattord", "position": "RB", "workload": "35 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5125733/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5211694", "name": "Harold Mack", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 264 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5211694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295525", "name": "Benson Prosper", "position": "WR", "workload": "24 REC, 251 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5295525/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083205", "name": "Nick Devereaux", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 143 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5083205/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5295532", "name": "Joshua Long", "position": "TE", "workload": "22 REC, 168 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/5295532/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4918453", "name": "Tanner Lemaster", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 47 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/athletes/4918453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Eastern Michigan Eagles: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2199/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2199/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866435", "teamId": "2006", "team": "Akron Zips", "side": "home", "opponent": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5146903", "name": "Brayden Roggow", "position": "QB", "workload": "53/94, 605 YDS, 3 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5146903/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5198324", "name": "Cibastian Broughton", "position": "QB", "workload": "53/66, 380 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5198324/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5084582", "name": "Jordan Gant", "position": "RB", "workload": "62 CAR, 293 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5084582/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146708", "name": "Sean Patrick", "position": "RB", "workload": "35 CAR, 195 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5146708/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4871050", "name": "Marquese Williams", "position": "RB", "workload": "12 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/4871050/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5193341", "name": "Marcel Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 201 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5193341/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5110019", "name": "Kyan Mason", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 143 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5110019/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5076653", "name": "Brandon Hills", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5076653/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5397589", "name": "Elijah Alexander", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 87 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5397589/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5157315", "name": "Conner Cravaack", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 38 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/athletes/5157315/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Akron Zips: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2006/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2006/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401866437", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.0, 23.5 ], "current_rates": [ 20.4, 30.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.583333333333332, 12.166666666666666 ], "current_rates": [ 42.4, 25.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.0, 37.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.0, 37.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 0.5, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401762794", "401762817", "401761613", "401757170", "401762831", "401762840", "401762844", "401762849", "401762858", "401762865", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 20.4, "pa": 30.6, "margin": -10.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401866409", "401866414", "401858456", "401866426", "401866432" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.583333333333332, "pa": 12.166666666666666, "margin": 19.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752670", "401757232", "401762819", "401762820", "401762824", "401762835", "401762842", "401752952", "401762854", "401762860", "401762867", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.4, "pa": 25.6, "margin": 16.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401866419", "401862774", "401860893", "401866431" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.0, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.591666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16.0, 38.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.0, 38.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 0.5, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401762794", "401762817", "401761613", "401757170", "401762831", "401762840", "401762844", "401762849", "401762858", "401762865", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 20.4, "pa": 30.6, "margin": -10.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401866409", "401866414", "401858456", "401866426", "401866432" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.583333333333332, "pa": 12.166666666666666, "margin": 19.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752670", "401757232", "401762819", "401762820", "401762824", "401762835", "401762842", "401752952", "401762854", "401762860", "401762867", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.4, "pa": 25.6, "margin": 16.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401866419", "401862774", "401860893", "401866431" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.0, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.591666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16.0, 38.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.0, 38.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401866437", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401866437", "teamId": "2084", "team": "Buffalo Bulls", "side": "away", "opponent": "Toledo Rockets", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5222591", "name": "Jason Wright", "position": "QB", "workload": "49/98, 555 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5222591/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5328086", "name": "Elijah Holmes", "position": "QB", "workload": "35/61, 250 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5328086/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5151369", "name": "Messiah Burch", "position": "RB", "workload": "73 CAR, 352 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5151369/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5216690", "name": "Nino Hill", "position": "RB", "workload": "41 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5216690/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5194659", "name": "James McNeil Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5194659/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4869601", "name": "Chance Morrow", "position": "WR", "workload": "32 REC, 397 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/4869601/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5084704", "name": "Patrick Clacks III", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5084704/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5387611", "name": "Jaylen Andrews", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 77 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5387611/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5387612", "name": "Clint Walker", "position": "TE", "workload": "11 REC, 82 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5387612/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5095138", "name": "Trevor Wilson", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 52 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/athletes/5095138/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Buffalo Bulls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2084/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2084/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866437", "teamId": "2649", "team": "Toledo Rockets", "side": "home", "opponent": "Buffalo Bulls", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5082330", "name": "John Alan Richter", "position": "QB", "workload": "98/153, 1362 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5082330/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5200190", "name": "Walter Moses", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/1, 40 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5200190/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5092811", "name": "CJ Miller", "position": "RB", "workload": "54 CAR, 346 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5092811/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078063", "name": "Connor Walendzak", "position": "RB", "workload": "57 CAR, 336 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5078063/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164730", "name": "Autavius Ison", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 175 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5164730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5153399", "name": "Adjatay Dabbs", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 367 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5153399/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5162858", "name": "Bryson Hammer", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 298 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5162858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5225646", "name": "Rico Bond", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 192 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5225646/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5220133", "name": "Sam Lee", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 78 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/5220133/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4882061", "name": "Jacob Newell", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 36 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/athletes/4882061/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Toledo Rockets: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2649/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2649/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401866438", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.833333333333332, 22.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 17.6, 25.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.666666666666668, 22.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 26.8, 26.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.0, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.0, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": 1.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401760358", "401754529", "401752839", "401762822", "401762826", "401762829", "401762839", "401762847", "401762850", "401762858", "401762866", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 25.4, "margin": -7.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401864498", "401866415", "401864508", "401858238", "401866430" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.666666666666668, "pa": 22.916666666666668, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401752794", "401756883", "401752827", "401762823", "401762825", "401762830", "401762843", "401762848", "401762852", "401762857", "401762863", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 0.0, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401866418", "401866423", "401866428", "401866434" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.2383333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": 1.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401760358", "401754529", "401752839", "401762822", "401762826", "401762829", "401762839", "401762847", "401762850", "401762858", "401762866", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 25.4, "margin": -7.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401864498", "401866415", "401864508", "401858238", "401866430" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.666666666666668, "pa": 22.916666666666668, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401752794", "401756883", "401752827", "401762823", "401762825", "401762830", "401762843", "401762848", "401762852", "401762857", "401762863", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 0.0, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401866418", "401866423", "401866428", "401866434" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.2383333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401866438", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401866438", "teamId": "2117", "team": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "side": "away", "opponent": "Ohio Bobcats", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5084769", "name": "Angel Flores", "position": "QB", "workload": "26/47, 201 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5084769/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5149056", "name": "Jadyn Glasser", "position": "QB", "workload": "19/32, 183 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5149056/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5157391", "name": "Jayden Clerveaux", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 219 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5157391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5122147", "name": "Vaughn Blue", "position": "RB", "workload": "28 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5122147/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5305463", "name": "Nick Woodford", "position": "RB", "workload": "14 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5305463/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4869694", "name": "Langston Lewis", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/4869694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5221139", "name": "Shawn Foster II", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5221139/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295488", "name": "Justin Ruffin Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 57 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5295488/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5387646", "name": "Myles Peters", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 14 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/5387646/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4876695", "name": "Jaden Allen", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 10 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/athletes/4876695/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Central Michigan Chippewas: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2117/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2117/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866438", "teamId": "195", "team": "Ohio Bobcats", "side": "home", "opponent": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5171031", "name": "Matt Vezza", "position": "QB", "workload": "40/58, 439 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5171031/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5228762", "name": "Nick Poulos", "position": "QB", "workload": "16/36, 180 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5228762/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4873234", "name": "Victor Rosa", "position": "RB", "workload": "56 CAR, 219 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/4873234/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5167252", "name": "Duncan Brune", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 184 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5167252/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5236380", "name": "Irving Brown", "position": "RB", "workload": "10 CAR, 107 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5236380/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5228764", "name": "Riley Neer", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 338 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5228764/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193110", "name": "Dom Dorwart", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 160 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5193110/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5211691", "name": "Preston Bowman", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 63 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5211691/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5394410", "name": "Riley Palmeter", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 61 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5394410/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5221306", "name": "Jake Furtney", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 42 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/athletes/5221306/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Ohio Bobcats: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/195/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/195/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401866439", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.25, 33.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 15.0, 31.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.615384615384617, 18.23076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 23.2, 19.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 18.0, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.0, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 13.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 13.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.25, "pa": 33.583333333333336, "margin": -12.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762792", "401756885", "401762817", "401754541", "401752729", "401762837", "401762842", "401762846", "401762853", "401762856", "401762866", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 15.0, "pa": 31.4, "margin": -16.4, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401866416", "401858454", "401866425", "401866434" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 23.615384615384617, "pa": 18.23076923076923, "margin": 5.384615384615387, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401762461", "401752829", "401762820", "401762828", "401762832", "401762834", "401762874", "401762850", "401762857", "401762864", "401762869", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 19.4, "margin": 3.8000000000000007, "event_ids": [ "401858428", "401866421", "401862773", "401860897", "401866432" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.740384615384613, 28.599358974358978 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.2, 27.299999999999997 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.791794871794872, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 14.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.25, "pa": 33.583333333333336, "margin": -12.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762792", "401756885", "401762817", "401754541", "401752729", "401762837", "401762842", "401762846", "401762853", "401762856", "401762866", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 15.0, "pa": 31.4, "margin": -16.4, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401866416", "401858454", "401866425", "401866434" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 23.615384615384617, "pa": 18.23076923076923, "margin": 5.384615384615387, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401762461", "401752829", "401762820", "401762828", "401762832", "401762834", "401762874", "401762850", "401762857", "401762864", "401762869", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 19.4, "margin": 3.8000000000000007, "event_ids": [ "401858428", "401866421", "401862773", "401860897", "401866432" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.740384615384613, 28.599358974358978 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.2, 27.299999999999997 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.791794871794872, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 14.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401866439", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401866439", "teamId": "2309", "team": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "side": "away", "opponent": "Western Michigan Broncos", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5119841", "name": "Dru DeShields", "position": "QB", "workload": "70/120, 757 YDS, 3 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5119841/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5388310", "name": "Ethan Thanthanavong", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/2, 16 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5388310/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4875755", "name": "Mason King", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 166 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/4875755/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5327601", "name": "Brandon White", "position": "RB", "workload": "40 CAR, 126 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5327601/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5126524", "name": "Jakorion Caffey", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5126524/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5295590", "name": "Da'Realyst Clark", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 246 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5295590/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5147053", "name": "Wayne Harris", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 204 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5147053/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5027432", "name": "Ardell Banks", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 167 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5027432/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5088143", "name": "Terik Mulder", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 61 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5088143/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5211188", "name": "Zy'aire Fletcher", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 5 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/athletes/5211188/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Kent State Golden Flashes: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2309/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2309/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401866439", "teamId": "2711", "team": "Western Michigan Broncos", "side": "home", "opponent": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5074245", "name": "Broc Lowry", "position": "QB", "workload": "77/113, 739 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5074245/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5126475", "name": "Trey Petty", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/6, 54 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5126475/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5085006", "name": "Jalen Buckley", "position": "RB", "workload": "62 CAR, 287 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5085006/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296166", "name": "Lolo Mataele", "position": "RB", "workload": "32 CAR, 130 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5296166/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4917858", "name": "Cole Cabana", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 19 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/4917858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5164351", "name": "Aveion Chenault", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 272 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5164351/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5075962", "name": "Baylin Brooks", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 106 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5075962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5155273", "name": "Egypt Nelson", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5155273/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5157528", "name": "Nate Levicki", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 112 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5157528/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5121636", "name": "Adam Parks", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/athletes/5121636/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Western Michigan Broncos: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2711/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2711/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401868011", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.125, 21.145833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.125, 21.145833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.125, 21.145833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.916666666666668, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": -0.75, "event_ids": [ "401767732", "401767593", "401754639", "401767589", "401767352", "401767666", "401767739", "401767728", "401767716", "401767724", "401767740", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 28.166666666666668, "margin": -4.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401869127", "401858222", "401868018", "401868037", "401868029" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.916666666666666, "pa": 33.083333333333336, "margin": -17.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401754518", "401767257", "401767322", "401767672", "401767673", "401767674", "401767700", "401767675", "401767716", "401767669", "401767717", "401767718" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.833333333333334, "pa": 33.166666666666664, "margin": -18.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401868007", "401864499", "401868008", "401868009", "401866648", "401868010" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 19.291666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.25, 21.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.9916666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.0, 19.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.0, 19.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401868011", "matchup": "Richmond Spiders at Fordham Rams", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T19:30Z", "venue": { "id": "150", "guid": "135db278-68ff-3652-9fb3-3dcff0194c44", "fullName": "Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field", "address": { "city": "Bronx", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "10458", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2230", "teamName": "Fordham Rams", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868010", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "name": "Fordham Rams at Lehigh Mountain Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Goodman Stadium", "address": { "city": "Bethlehem", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "18015", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2329", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 34.0, "displayValue": "34" }, "team": { "id": "2329", "displayName": "Lehigh Mountain Hawks" } }, { "id": "2230", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 0.0, "displayValue": "0" }, "team": { "id": "2230", "displayName": "Fordham Rams" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.146, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fordhamsports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "257", "teamName": "Richmond Spiders", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868029", "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "name": "Richmond Spiders at Lafayette Leopards", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T16:30Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Fisher Stadium", "address": { "city": "Easton", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "18042", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "322", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 31.0, "displayValue": "31" }, "team": { "id": "322", "displayName": "Lafayette Leopards" } }, { "id": "257", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 40.0, "displayValue": "40" }, "team": { "id": "257", "displayName": "Richmond Spiders" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://richmondspiders.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Bronx. 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Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Bronx&state=NY&site=OKX&textField1=40.8489&textField2=-73.8762&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.056119+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Today Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning. Tonight Increasing clouds, with a low around 55. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [] } }, { "eventId": "401868180", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.0, 36.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.0, 36.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Whitmire Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cullowhee", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "28723", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2717", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2717", "displayName": "Western Carolina Catamounts" } }, { "id": "2635", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 20.0, "displayValue": "20" }, "team": { "id": "2635", "displayName": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.896, "officialScheduleSource": "https://ttusports.com/sports/fball/2026-27/schedule", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue", "scheduleExplanation": "Official current schedule says Today, with matching opponent and kickoff; retained at current Eastern date." }, { "teamId": "231", "teamName": "Furman Paladins", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868375", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Wofford Terriers at Furman Paladins", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Paladin Stadium", "address": { "city": "Greenville", "state": "SC", "zipCode": "29617", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "231", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 25.0, "displayValue": "25" }, "team": { "id": "231", "displayName": "Furman Paladins" } }, { "id": "2747", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 32.0, "displayValue": "32" }, "team": { "id": "2747", "displayName": "Wofford Terriers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.062, "officialScheduleSource": "https://furmanpaladins.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cookeville. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cookeville&state=TN&site=OHX&textField1=36.1569&textField2=-85.5054&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.163803+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 59. East wind around 10 mph. Saturday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. High near 71. East northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "MODERATE: sparse FCS availability publication; conditional branches documented, final lineups not certified.", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [ { "teamId": "2635", "error": "404 Client Error: Not Found for url: https://ttusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" } ], "replacementScenarios": [] } }, { "eventId": "401861964", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 36.916666666666664, 25.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.0, 26.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 27.833333333333332, 29.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 25.8, 24.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31.0, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.0, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.916666666666664, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": 11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401754618", "401757168", "401757169", "401757170", "401757171", "401754569", "401757172", "401757173", "401754590", "401757174", "401757175" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 26.2, "margin": 9.8, "event_ids": [ "401861962", "401858444", "401861963", "401861970", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 29.666666666666668, "margin": -1.8333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762462", "401752703", "401754542", "401762479", "401762484", "401762489", "401762495", "401762498", "401762503", "401762515", "401762442" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401862698", "401858442", "401862774", "401862779", "401862792" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.4, 26.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.171666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.916666666666664, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": 11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401754618", "401757168", "401757169", "401757170", "401757171", "401754569", "401757172", "401757173", "401754590", "401757174", "401757175" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 26.2, "margin": 9.8, "event_ids": [ "401861962", "401858444", "401861963", "401861970", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 29.666666666666668, "margin": -1.8333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762462", "401752703", "401754542", "401762479", "401762484", "401762489", "401762495", "401762498", "401762503", "401762515", "401762442" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401862698", "401858442", "401862774", "401862779", "401862792" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.4, 26.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.171666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401861964", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401861964", "teamId": "41", "team": "UConn Huskies", "side": "away", "opponent": "Temple Owls", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079619", "name": "Kalieb Osborne", "position": "QB", "workload": "81/140, 1164 YDS, 10 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/5079619/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5077806", "name": "Tucker McDonald", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/11, 118 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/5077806/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5296247", "name": "Cyncir Bowers", "position": "RB", "workload": "47 CAR, 349 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/5296247/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4689529", "name": "Kenji Christian", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 153 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/4689529/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5075952", "name": "Trey Cornist", "position": "RB", "workload": "30 CAR, 114 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/5075952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5193720", "name": "Javon Brown", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 202 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/5193720/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870959", "name": "Shamar Porter", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 196 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/4870959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5125750", "name": "JD Willoughby", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 163 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/5125750/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5222571", "name": "Xavier Watson", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/5222571/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5221596", "name": "Alex Godavitarne", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 67 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/athletes/5221596/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "UConn Huskies: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/41/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/41/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401861964", "teamId": "218", "team": "Temple Owls", "side": "home", "opponent": "UConn Huskies", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5078166", "name": "Ajani Sheppard", "position": "QB", "workload": "40/72, 631 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/5078166/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5077787", "name": "Jaxon Smolik", "position": "QB", "workload": "14/23, 116 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/5077787/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5296364", "name": "Keveun Mason", "position": "RB", "workload": "68 CAR, 361 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/5296364/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685695", "name": "Samuel Brown V", "position": "RB", "workload": "25 CAR, 205 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/4685695/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4258419", "name": "Hunter Smith", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 82 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/4258419/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5089003", "name": "Colin Chase", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 201 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/5089003/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5087747", "name": "Jayce Freeman", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/5087747/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4726152", "name": "JoJo Bermudez", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/4726152/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5080547", "name": "Peter Clarke", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 54 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/5080547/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5222551", "name": "Ryder Kusch", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 51 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/athletes/5222551/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Temple Owls: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "No current official game-specific availability report captured; roster Active flag is not medical clearance" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/218/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/218/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401866659", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.0, 25.75 ], "current_rates": [ 34.8, 30.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 26.75, 25.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 22.666666666666668, 37.166666666666664 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 27.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 27.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.18722768083512, 31.94020963106951 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.18722768083512, 31.94020963106951 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.18722768083512, 31.94020963106951 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 32.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 32.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 25.75, "margin": 2.25, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401767317", "401767322", "401767210", "401767323", "401767324", "401767261", "401767325", "401767193", "401767316", "401767326", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 3.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401866622", "401866413", "401866634", "401866648" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.75, "pa": 25.083333333333332, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767328", "401752838", "401767329", "401767032", "401767153", "401767260", "401767325", "401767275", "401767330", "401767331", "401767148" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 37.166666666666664, "margin": -14.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866532", "401862696", "401856680", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.9083333333333325, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.0, "pa": 25.75, "margin": 2.25, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401767317", "401767322", "401767210", "401767323", "401767324", "401767261", "401767325", "401767193", "401767316", "401767326", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 3.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401866622", "401866413", "401866634", "401866648" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.75, "pa": 25.083333333333332, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767328", "401752838", "401767329", "401767032", "401767153", "401767260", "401767325", "401767275", "401767330", "401767331", "401767148" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 37.166666666666664, "margin": -14.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866532", "401862696", "401856680", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.9083333333333325, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2502", "teamName": "Portland State Vikings", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868155", "date": "2026-09-27T00:00Z", "name": "Portland State Vikings at Weber State Wildcats", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-27T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Stewart Stadium", "address": { "city": "Ogden", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84408", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2692", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 41.0, "displayValue": "41" }, "team": { "id": "2692", "displayName": "Weber State Wildcats" } }, { "id": "2502", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 44.0, "displayValue": "44" }, "team": { "id": "2502", "displayName": "Portland State Vikings" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 13.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://goviks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "3101", "teamName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868160", "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "name": "Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Utah Tech Trailblazers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-04T00:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Greater Zion Stadium", "address": { "city": "Saint George", "state": "UT", "zipCode": "84770", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "3101", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 33.0, "displayValue": "33" }, "team": { "id": "3101", "displayName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers" } }, { "id": "253", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 46.0, "displayValue": "46" }, "team": { "id": "253", "displayName": "Southern Utah Thunderbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 6.833, "officialScheduleSource": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Portland. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Portland&state=OR&site=PQR&textField1=45.5236&textField2=-122.675&e=1", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.583848+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 50. Calm wind. Saturday A chance of rain between 8am and 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Light north northwest wind. ", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. City forecast is not an in-stadium observation." } }, "releaseRisk": "CONDITIONAL AVAILABILITY: Deacon Hill: CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "scheduleKnownSourceFailures": [], "replacementScenarios": [ { "eventId": "401868156", "teamId": "3101", "teamName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "incumbent": "Deacon Hill", "replacement": "Bronson Barben", "role": "QB", "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx", "sourceDate": "2026-10-06", "status": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "trigger": "Hill made his first start in over two seasons Oct3 and departed late in Q2 injured; Barben replaced him. Material restricted/unavailable Hill branch qualifies for the authorized human assumption, not an invented medical OUT.", "history": { "Deacon Hill": { "2024": "Utah Tech: 4 starts in first five team games, 36/75, 412 yards, 2 TD, INT; 10 rushes/5 yards/TD. Rest of season injured.", "2025": "Utah Tech: missed whole season injured; no production.", "2026": "Utah Tech: 14/25, 276 yards, TD, INT; 4 rushes/25 yards. First start Oct3, 9/17 for 226 yards and TD before injury." }, "Bronson Barben": { "2024": "Utah Tech: 4 games/3 starts, 58/114, 574 yards official bio (575 ESPN discrepancy retained), 4 TD, 2 INT; 35 rushes/60 yards.", "2025": "Utah Tech: 10 games/9 starts, 169/288, 1682 yards, 6 TD, 12 INT; 52 rushes/126 yards/TD.", "2026": "Utah Tech: 89/166, 1029 yards, 3 TD, 5 INT; 31 rushes/58 yards/TD. Oct3 relief 11/21,165 yards,TD." } }, "familiarity": "Both have Utah Tech experience since 2024 under Lance Anderson; Barben started nine games in 2025 and several in 2026. Protection-call/practice performance unreported; no unfamiliarity penalty invented.", "opportunityChange": "Potential full-game passing workload for Barben rather than Hill; exact attempt redistribution unestimated.", "offensiveLine": "Official Oct6 preview reports 1.33 sacks allowed/game (tied second Big Sky); no incremental line availability effect established.", "opponentContext": "Portland State coming off bye after Sept26 win; defense/venue already handled by registered team engine.", "doubleCounting": "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty.", "statisticalReplacementAdjustment": null, "statisticalReplacementForecast": "Registered baseline retained as proxy; player-specific conversion unestimated.", "branches": [ { "condition": "Hill fully available in reference starting role", "humanDeduction": 0 }, { "condition": "Hill unavailable/materially limited with Barben replacing reference role", "humanDeduction": -3 } ], "appliedConservativeSensitivity": -3, "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "reviewedUTC": "2026-10-10T10:13:05.267848+00:00", "additionalIndependentAdjustment": 0, "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "jointScenario": "Only one qualifying covered-role scenario identified for this team. Joint scenario equals isolated -3 branch; no stacked QB/WR or injury-headcount deductions.", "gateOutcome": "Pre-price: retain PASS_PENDING_GATES. Parent must evaluate base and both availability branches in each of the four configurations after immutable freeze; any selection failing applicable branch becomes PASS, never opposite-side promotion.", "scoreExpression": "adjusted team points = retained registered baseline - 3.0 in qualifying branch; available branch = baseline. Statistical replacement-specific conversion is unestimated, not proven zero.", "baseAndAdjustedScores": "Parent-owned model means pending; attach by eventId and teamId without changing registered arithmetic.", "advancedUncertainty": [ "routes/targets and verified drops unavailable", "exact game-day snap allocation unconfirmed", "no calibrated player-to-score conversion", "protection-call experience and full practice participation unavailable" ] } ] } }, { "eventId": "401868968", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 18.583333333333332, 36.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 22.333333333333332, 38.166666666666664 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 31.076923076923077, 16.153846153846153 ], "current_rates": [ 23.833333333333332, 30.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.0, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15.0, 36.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.0, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.583333333333332, "pa": 36.083333333333336, "margin": -17.500000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767425", "401767359", "401760369", "401767422", "401767390", "401767434", "401767456", "401767385", "401767376", "401767457", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.333333333333332, "pa": 38.166666666666664, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868324", "401868970", "401856787", "401868971", "401868960", "401868936" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.076923076923077, "pa": 16.153846153846153, "margin": 14.923076923076923, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401767432", "401762466", "401767433", "401767417", "401767371", "401767434", "401767435", "401767364", "401767356", "401767387", "401767430", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 30.0, "margin": -6.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401868967", "401856784", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.208974358974359, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 38.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 38.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.583333333333332, "pa": 36.083333333333336, "margin": -17.500000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767425", "401767359", "401760369", "401767422", "401767390", "401767434", "401767456", "401767385", "401767376", "401767457", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.333333333333332, "pa": 38.166666666666664, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868324", "401868970", "401856787", "401868971", "401868960", "401868936" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.076923076923077, "pa": 16.153846153846153, "margin": 14.923076923076923, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401767432", "401762466", "401767433", "401767417", "401767371", "401767434", "401767435", "401767364", "401767356", "401767387", "401767430", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 30.0, "margin": -6.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401868967", "401856784", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.208974358974359, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 38.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 38.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401868968", "matchup": "Southern Jaguars at Prairie View A&M Panthers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5238", "guid": "45211dda-7c1f-3816-a638-61ebb57fd18d", "fullName": "Panther Stadium", "address": { "city": "Prairie View", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77446", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2504", "teamName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868965", "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "name": "Prairie View A&M Panthers at Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T19:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Rice-Totten Stadium", "address": { "city": "Itta Bena", "state": "MS", "zipCode": "38941", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2400", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2400", "displayName": "Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils" } }, { "id": "2504", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 27.0, "displayValue": "27" }, "team": { "id": "2504", "displayName": "Prairie View A&M Panthers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.042, "officialScheduleSource": "https://pvpanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "2582", "teamName": "Southern Jaguars", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401868936", "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "name": "Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Southern Jaguars", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T23:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "A.W. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2633", "side": "away", "player": "Faizon Brandon", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 30.0, 30.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.0, 30.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2633", "side": "away", "player": "Faizon Brandon", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "isolated_score": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 40.75, "pa": 28.75, "margin": 12.0, "event_ids": [ "401752676", "401752692", "401752705", "401752715", "401752720", "401752735", "401752738", "401752747", "401752757", "401752771", "401752775", "401752791" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.8, "pa": 15.2, "margin": 21.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856666", "401856681", "401856692", "401856704", "401856710" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.916666666666664, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -0.9166666666666714, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401752682", "401752700", "401752708", "401752717", "401752735", "401752739", "401752746", "401752753", "401752768", "401752780", "401752783" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 28.4, "margin": -8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856635", "401856670", "401856686", "401856697", "401856711" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 37.29166666666667, 30.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.599999999999994, 17.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.3116666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 39.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 39.5, 21.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2633", "side": "away", "player": "Faizon Brandon", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "isolated_score": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 40.75, "pa": 28.75, "margin": 12.0, "event_ids": [ "401752676", "401752692", "401752705", "401752715", "401752720", "401752735", "401752738", "401752747", "401752757", "401752771", "401752775", "401752791" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.8, "pa": 15.2, "margin": 21.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856666", "401856681", "401856692", "401856704", "401856710" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.916666666666664, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -0.9166666666666714, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401752682", "401752700", "401752708", "401752717", "401752735", "401752739", "401752746", "401752753", "401752768", "401752780", "401752783" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 28.4, "margin": -8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856635", "401856670", "401856686", "401856697", "401856711" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 37.29166666666667, 30.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.599999999999994, 17.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.3116666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 39.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 39.5, 21.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856713", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856713", "teamId": "2633", "team": "Tennessee Volunteers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Arkansas Razorbacks", "conferenceReportKey": "Tennessee", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5158973", "name": "Faizon Brandon", "position": "QB", "workload": "61/101, 697 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5158973/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141571", "name": "George MacIntyre", "position": "QB", "workload": "14/20, 148 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5141571/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4921108", "name": "DeSean Bishop", "position": "RB", "workload": "88 CAR, 540 YDS, 7 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/4921108/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141598", "name": "Daune Morris", "position": "RB", "workload": "46 CAR, 299 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5141598/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141361", "name": "Justin Baker", "position": "RB", "workload": "4 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5141361/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079580", "name": "Mike Matthews", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 318 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5079580/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5132629", "name": "Braylon Staley", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 140 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5132629/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5195481", "name": "Radarious Jackson", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 115 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5195481/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870683", "name": "Ethan Davis", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 43 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/4870683/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141391", "name": "DaSaahn Brame", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5141391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Ethan Davis", "id": "4870683", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 43 YDS, 2 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Joakim Dodson", "id": "5164355", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Javin Gordon", "id": "5294293", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "20 CAR, 79 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 18 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Faizon Brandon", "id": "5158973", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "61/101, 697 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "53 CAR, 130 YDS, 3 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Brandon leads 101 pass attempts and 53 rushes. QB replacement gets one isolated -3, not separate rushing-QB deduction. Davis is OUT with 3 catches/43 yards/2 TD, while Brame has 6/43: primary receiving-TE identity and red-zone redistribution remain unresolved; isolated Davis -3 only if primary-option role confirmed. Gordon 20 carries is behind Bishop 88 and Morris 46; no headcount penalty.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Faizon Brandon" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Faizon Brandon", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ], "Primary": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "TightenUpON": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Brandon leads 101 pass attempts and 53 rushes. QB replacement gets one isolated -3, not separate rushing-QB deduction. Davis is OUT with 3 catches/43 yards/2 TD, while Brame has 6/43: primary receiving-TE identity and red-zone redistribution remain unresolved; isolated Davis -3 only if primary-option role confirmed. Gordon 20 carries is behind Bishop 88 and Morris 46; no headcount penalty.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5158973", "name": "Faizon Brandon", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/422", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2633", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5158973/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2633", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5158973/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2633", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 101, "passingYards": 697, "passingTD": 7, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 15, "completionPct": 60.400001525878906, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.900000095367432, "rushAttempts": 53, "rushingYards": 130, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5158973/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2633" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141571", "name": "George MacIntyre", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/426", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2633", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141571/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2633", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 9, "passingYards": 69, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 77.77799987792969, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.666999816894531, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141571/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2633", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 20, "passingYards": 148, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 70, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.400000095367432, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141571/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2633" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4917093", "name": "Ryan Staub", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/427", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "38", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 4, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 4, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.3329999446868896, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4917093/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "38", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 55, "passingYards": 427, "passingTD": 3, "interceptions": 4, "sacks": 6, "completionPct": 54.54499816894531, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.763999938964844, "rushAttempts": 19, "rushingYards": 30, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.5789999961853027, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4917093/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2633", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 3, "passingYards": 27, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 9, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4917093/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "38" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Ethan Davis" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Faizon Brandon", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Faizon Brandon", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "George MacIntyre", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Faizon Brandon", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Ethan Davis" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2633/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Ethan Davis", "id": "4870683", "status": "out", "reason": "Three catches/43 yards/two TD versus Brame six/43. Red-zone contribution is visible, primary receiving-TE role is not established. Role-conditional sensitivity overlaps possible QB replacement.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/423", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "5141391", "name": "DaSaahn Brame", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2633/athletes/5141391/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/433" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -3, "overlap": "Shared passing-drive/target uncertainty retained; no automatic extra joint deduction.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ] } } } ] } }, { "eventId": "401856713", "teamId": "8", "team": "Arkansas Razorbacks", "side": "home", "opponent": "Tennessee Volunteers", "conferenceReportKey": "Arkansas", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079516", "name": "KJ Jackson", "position": "QB", "workload": "95/157, 1038 YDS, 6 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/5079516/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141473", "name": "AJ Hill", "position": "QB", "workload": "16/28, 181 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/5141473/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079589", "name": "Braylen Russell", "position": "RB", "workload": "40 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/5079589/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4805256", "name": "Sutton Smith", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 126 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/4805256/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5222564", "name": "Cam Settles", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 81 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/5222564/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4717430", "name": "Chris Marshall", "position": "WR", "workload": "35 REC, 549 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/4717430/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5120970", "name": "Ismael Cisse", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 90 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/5120970/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4917349", "name": "Jamari Hawkins", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 82 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/4917349/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870870", "name": "Ty Lockwood", "position": "TE", "workload": "10 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/4870870/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4899360", "name": "Jaden Platt", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/athletes/4899360/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Maddox Lassiter", "id": "5150266", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Arkansas Razorbacks: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/8/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/8/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 34.40909090909091, 25.52272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.409090909090907, 25.52272727272727 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.24242546221364, 29.9438431610728 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858483", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "isolated_score": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 14.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "current_rates": [ 30.4, 30.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 34.92307692307692, 8.153846153846153 ], "current_rates": [ 42.2, 12.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 34.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.908145018500839, 36.81699500640866 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "isolated_score": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "isolated_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 36.81699500640866 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 7.908145018500839, 36.81699500640866 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 11.0, 40.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8.0, 40.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -3.0, "event_ids": [ "401752797", "401752826", "401752838", "401752845", "401752857", "401752867", "401752879", "401752887", "401752894", "401752906", "401752914", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 30.2, "margin": 0.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401858427", "401858444", "401858232", "401858462", "401858475" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34.92307692307692, "pa": 8.153846153846153, "margin": 26.769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401752677", "401752815", "401752827", "401752852", "401752859", "401752865", "401752877", "401752889", "401752897", "401752900", "401752912", "401752921", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.2, "pa": 12.6, "margin": 29.6, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401856682", "401858454", "401858465", "401858473" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 15.826923076923077, 30.71153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.5, 36.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.9169230769230765, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 12.5, 41.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 9.5, 41.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -3.0, "event_ids": [ "401752797", "401752826", "401752838", "401752845", "401752857", "401752867", "401752879", "401752887", "401752894", "401752906", "401752914", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 30.2, "margin": 0.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401858427", "401858444", "401858232", "401858462", "401858475" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34.92307692307692, "pa": 8.153846153846153, "margin": 26.769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401752677", "401752815", "401752827", "401752852", "401752859", "401752865", "401752877", "401752889", "401752897", "401752900", "401752912", "401752921", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.2, "pa": 12.6, "margin": 29.6, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401856682", "401858454", "401858465", "401858473" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 15.826923076923077, 30.71153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.5, 36.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.9169230769230765, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 12.5, 41.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 9.5, 41.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858483", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858483", "teamId": "120", "team": "Maryland Terrapins", "side": "away", "opponent": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "conferenceReportKey": "Maryland", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141695", "name": "Malik Washington", "position": "QB", "workload": "124/198, 1288 YDS, 7 TD, 6 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/5141695/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4872721", "name": "Cardell Williams", "position": "QB", "workload": "6/7, 63 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/4872721/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5141522", "name": "Iverson Howard", "position": "RB", "workload": "52 CAR, 211 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/5141522/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295550", "name": "DeJuan Williams", "position": "RB", "workload": "13 CAR, 194 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/5295550/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141419", "name": "Harry Dalton III", "position": "RB", "workload": "30 CAR, 113 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/5141419/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5193298", "name": "Chris Durr Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "42 REC, 461 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/5193298/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5194795", "name": "Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding", "position": "WR", "workload": "18 REC, 239 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/5194795/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4838556", "name": "Kaleb Webb", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 235 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/4838556/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5092410", "name": "Dorian Fleming", "position": "TE", "workload": "18 REC, 171 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/5092410/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685393", "name": "Preston Howard", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 40 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/athletes/4685393/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Josiah Teasley", "id": "5327246", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "DJ Samuels", "id": "4950548", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Sean Williams", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Harry Dalton III", "id": "5141419", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "30 CAR, 113 YDS, 3 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, -14 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Terrez Worthy", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Solomon Foye", "id": "5306795", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "DeJuan Williams", "id": "5295550", "position": "RB", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "13 CAR, 194 YDS, 3 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "4 REC, 35 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Dalton has 30 carries/113 yards/3 TD, a material committee workload. Howard has 52 carries, Williams 13 carries/194 yards and is PROBABLE. Six offensive report names do not imply six deductions.", "confirmed": [ "Harry Dalton III" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "Primary": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "TightenUpON": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Dalton has 30 carries/113 yards/3 TD, a material committee workload. Howard has 52 carries, Williams 13 carries/194 yards and is PROBABLE. Six offensive report names do not imply six deductions.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5141419", "name": "Harry Dalton III", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/394", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "120", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141419/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 8, "rushingYards": 44, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141419/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 30, "rushingYards": 113, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.799999952316284, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": -14, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141419/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "120", "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141522", "name": "Iverson Howard", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/402", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "120", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141522/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 39, "rushingYards": 125, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.2049999237060547, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141522/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 52, "rushingYards": 211, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.099999904632568, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 40, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141522/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "120" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5295550", "name": "DeJuan Williams", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/398", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "120", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5295550/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 128, "rushingYards": 501, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.9140000343322754, "receptions": 45, "receivingYards": 426, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5295550/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": 194, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 14.899999618530273, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 35, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5295550/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "120" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5270858", "name": "Liam Willson", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/768", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "120", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5270858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "120", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5270858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "120", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": 52, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5270858/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "120" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Harry Dalton III", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Iverson Howard", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "DeJuan Williams", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Liam Willson", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Liam Willson", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/120/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/120/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858483", "teamId": "194", "team": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "side": "home", "opponent": "Maryland Terrapins", "conferenceReportKey": "Ohio State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079712", "name": "Julian Sayin", "position": "QB", "workload": "103/142, 1530 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5079712/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5214646", "name": "Luke Fahey", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/11, 203 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5214646/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5141517", "name": "Bo Jackson", "position": "RB", "workload": "66 CAR, 353 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5141517/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5151892", "name": "Ja'Kobi Jackson", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 278 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5151892/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141701", "name": "Isaiah West", "position": "RB", "workload": "22 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5141701/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079720", "name": "Jeremiah Smith", "position": "WR", "workload": "44 REC, 823 YDS, 9 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5079720/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5076952", "name": "Devin McCuin", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 245 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5076952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870835", "name": "Brandon Inniss", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 147 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/4870835/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5141656", "name": "Nate Roberts", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5141656/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5081611", "name": "Mason Williams", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 35 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/athletes/5081611/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Amari Valerio-Hudson", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Brandon Inniss", "id": "4870835", "position": "WR", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "10 REC, 147 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Anthony Turbo Rogers", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Devin McCuin", "id": "5076952", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "17 REC, 245 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Inniss third receiver 10/147 is DOUBTFUL. McCuin second receiver 17/245 is PROBABLE. Preserve available vs unavailable Inniss branch; no automatic conversion from doubtful to out.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Brandon Inniss" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 17.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "Primary": [ 10.90814501850084, 36.81699500640866 ], "TightenUpON": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Inniss third receiver 10/147 is DOUBTFUL. McCuin second receiver 17/245 is PROBABLE. Preserve available vs unavailable Inniss branch; no automatic conversion from doubtful to out.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 10.90814501850084, 36.81699500640866 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4870835", "name": "Brandon Inniss", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/381", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 151, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870835/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 6, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 16, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.333000183105469, "receptions": 32, "receivingYards": 237, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870835/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 147, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870835/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "194" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079720", "name": "Jeremiah Smith", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/389", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 47, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 11.75, "receptions": 57, "receivingYards": 934, "receivingTD": 10, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079720/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 20, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 10, "receptions": 80, "receivingYards": 1086, "receivingTD": 11, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079720/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 5, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5, "receptions": 44, "receivingYards": 823, "receivingTD": 9, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079720/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "194" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5076952", "name": "Devin McCuin", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/382", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2636", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 28, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 9.333000183105469, "receptions": 40, "receivingYards": 361, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5076952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2636", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 11, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.5, "receptions": 59, "receivingYards": 653, "receivingTD": 7, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5076952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "194", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 245, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5076952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2636" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Brandon Inniss" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/194/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/194/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 7.908145018500839, 36.81699500640866 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401867877", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 32.332142857142856, 23.247619047619047 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.332142857142856, 23.247619047619047 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.332142857142856, 23.247619047619047 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 14, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 32.92857142857143, 19.857142857142858 ], "current_rates": [ 42.5, 27.833333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.25, 26.75 ], "current_rates": [ 27.0, 31.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 23.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 32.92857142857143, "pa": 19.857142857142858, "margin": 13.071428571428573, "event_ids": [ "401756855", "401767127", "401767098", "401767502", "401767503", "401767504", "401767505", "401767450", "401767506", "401767507", "401767501", "401767508", "401836115", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 42.5, "pa": 27.833333333333332, "margin": 14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401867875", "401867876", "401858452", "401867858", "401867869" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 26.75, "margin": -9.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401760367", "401767060", "401767308", "401767503", "401767537", "401767538", "401767539", "401767442", "401767500", "401767514", "401767540" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 31.0, "margin": -4.0, "event_ids": [ "401868085", "401868255", "401858471", "401867847" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.123809523809524, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 32.92857142857143, "pa": 19.857142857142858, "margin": 13.071428571428573, "event_ids": [ "401756855", "401767127", "401767098", "401767502", "401767503", "401767504", "401767505", "401767450", "401767506", "401767507", "401767501", "401767508", "401836115", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 42.5, "pa": 27.833333333333332, "margin": 14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401867875", "401867876", "401858452", "401867858", "401867869" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 26.75, "margin": -9.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401760367", "401767060", "401767308", "401767503", "401767537", "401767538", "401767539", "401767442", "401767500", "401767514", "401767540" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.0, "pa": 31.0, "margin": -4.0, "event_ids": [ "401868085", "401868255", "401858471", "401867847" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.123809523809524, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401867877", "matchup": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Northern Iowa Panthers", "scheduledUTC": "2026-10-10T21:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3967", "guid": "b12cc348-275c-3918-af9c-2b9e84aa8215", "fullName": "UNI-Dome", "address": { "city": "Cedar Falls", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50614", "country": "USA" }, "grass": false, "images": [] }, "teams": [ { "teamId": "2460", "teamName": "Northern Iowa Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867847", "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "name": "Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Iowa Panthers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "UNI-Dome", "address": { "city": "Cedar Falls", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50614", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2460", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2460", "displayName": "Northern Iowa Panthers" } }, { "id": "2287", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2287", "displayName": "Illinois State Redbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unipanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "155", "teamName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867869", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Murray State Racers at North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Alerus Center", "address": { "city": "Grand Forks", "state": "ND", "zipCode": "58201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "155", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "155", "displayName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks" } }, { "id": "93", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "93", "displayName": "Murray State Racers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fightinghawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cedar Falls. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "teamRoleFiles": [ "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#2460", "TEAM-ROLE-REVIEWS.json#155" ], "finding": "Northern Iowa Panthers: QB Jaxon Dailey/Cale McThenia, RB Christian Collins/Caleb Kamara/Michael Bormann, WR Ayden Price/Jaiden Ellis-Lahey/Ben Gordon, TE Zach Mehmert/Kaleb Diers; North Dakota Fighting Hawks: QB Jerry Kaminski/Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson, RB Griffin Broderick/Matt Lawson/Charles Langama, WR Deng Deng/Cameron Weir/Korey Tai, TE Nathan Hromadka/Mason South" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Matchup date, home/away, venue and last completed game checked from sporting schedule plus official team schedule. Start intervals are not full recovery hours.", "teams": [ { "teamId": "2460", "teamName": "Northern Iowa Panthers", "side": "home", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867847", "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "name": "Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Iowa Panthers", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T21:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "UNI-Dome", "address": { "city": "Cedar Falls", "state": "IA", "zipCode": "50614", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "2460", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "2460", "displayName": "Northern Iowa Panthers" } }, { "id": "2287", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 21.0, "displayValue": "21" }, "team": { "id": "2287", "displayName": "Illinois State Redbirds" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 14.0, "officialScheduleSource": "https://unipanthers.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Home venue" }, { "teamId": "155", "teamName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "side": "away", "previousCompletedEvent": { "id": "401867869", "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "name": "Murray State Racers at North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "season": { "year": 2026, "displayName": "2026" }, "competitions": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T18:00Z", "status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 4, "type": { "id": "3", "name": "STATUS_FINAL", "state": "post", "completed": true, "description": "Final", "detail": "Final", "shortDetail": "Final" } }, "venue": { "fullName": "Alerus Center", "address": { "city": "Grand Forks", "state": "ND", "zipCode": "58201", "country": "USA" } }, "competitors": [ { "id": "155", "homeAway": "home", "score": { "value": 55.0, "displayValue": "55" }, "team": { "id": "155", "displayName": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks" } }, { "id": "93", "homeAway": "away", "score": { "value": 28.0, "displayValue": "28" }, "team": { "id": "93", "displayName": "Murray State Racers" } } ] } ] }, "elapsedDaysBetweenScheduledStarts": 7.125, "officialScheduleSource": "https://fightinghawks.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "officialScheduleDatePresent": true, "travel": "Away trip to Cedar Falls. Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/zipcity.php?inputstring=Cedar%20Falls%2C%20IA", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.718998+00:00", "status": "indoor", "currentForecast": "Enclosed venue; field weather effect not applied. Travel conditions unestimated.", "numericAdjustment": 0, "reason": "No registered point conversion for weather; forecast is a qualitative risk only. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401860902", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401860902", "teamId": "21", "team": "San Diego State Aztecs", "side": "away", "opponent": "Oregon State Beavers", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685311", "name": "Jayden Denegal", "position": "QB", "workload": "71/122, 709 YDS, 5 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/4685311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5302259", "name": "Draiden Trudeau", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/6, 53 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5302259/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5254150", "name": "Javion Kinnard", "position": "RB", "workload": "56 CAR, 312 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5254150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5245054", "name": "Josiah Lucas", "position": "RB", "workload": "34 CAR, 159 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5245054/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912453", "name": "Lucky Sutton", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 150 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/4912453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5082315", "name": "Nathan Acevedo", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 177 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5082315/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4827041", "name": "Jacob Bostick", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 90 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/4827041/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4916888", "name": "Bert Emanuel Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 80 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/4916888/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5143596", "name": "Jackson Ford", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5143596/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5175719", "name": "Ryan Wolfer", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 21 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/athletes/5175719/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "San Diego State Aztecs: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/21/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/21/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401860902", "teamId": "204", "team": "Oregon State Beavers", "side": "home", "opponent": "San Diego State Aztecs", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5212654", "name": "Braden Atkinson", "position": "QB", "workload": "137/197, 1848 YDS, 16 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5212654/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685497", "name": "Maalik Murphy", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/4, 28 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/4685497/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4917981", "name": "AJ Newberry", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 271 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/4917981/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5167313", "name": "Cornell Hatcher Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 120 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5167313/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5325545", "name": "Tre Garrison", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 78 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5325545/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5289510", "name": "Jesse Legree", "position": "WR", "workload": "28 REC, 741 YDS, 9 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5289510/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5293573", "name": "Aeryn Hampton", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 197 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5293573/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079357", "name": "Aaron Butler", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5079357/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5088952", "name": "Eric Olsen", "position": "TE", "workload": "24 REC, 236 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/5088952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4869821", "name": "DeCorion Temple", "position": "TE", "workload": "16 REC, 138 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/athletes/4869821/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Oregon State Beavers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/204/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/204/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401868078", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.958333333333332, 33.867424242424235 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.958333333333332, 33.867424242424235 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.958333333333332, 33.867424242424235 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 27.5, 31.5 ], "current_rates": [ 30.333333333333332, 31.333333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 33.0, 27.25 ], "current_rates": [ 37.0, 21.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 34.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.021241953245756, 37.074771503141875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.021241953245756, 37.074771503141875 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.021241953245756, 37.074771503141875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "99", "side": "away", "player": "Trey'Dez Green", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.833333333333332, "pa": 18.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401752671", "401752687", "401752699", "401752710", "401752719", "401752732", "401752745", "401752748", "401752759", "401752768", "401752777", "401752789" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 15.2, "margin": 28.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401856660", "401867796", "401856688", "401856702", "401856706" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.0, "pa": 26.416666666666668, "margin": -3.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752670", "401752686", "401752698", "401752722", "401752728", "401752743", "401752747", "401752754", "401752760", "401752767", "401752782", "401752787" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.6, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 7.800000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856659", "401856674", "401856694", "401864576", "401856709" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.125, 20.666666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.2, 24.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.751666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856715", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856715", "teamId": "99", "team": "LSU Tigers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Kentucky Wildcats", "conferenceReportKey": "LSU", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5078810", "name": "Sam Leavitt", "position": "QB", "workload": "92/139, 1221 YDS, 8 TD, 7 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5078810/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5224789", "name": "Landen Clark", "position": "QB", "workload": "14/31, 235 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5224789/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079482", "name": "Dilin Jones", "position": "RB", "workload": "94 CAR, 426 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5079482/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5122231", "name": "Harlem Berry", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 196 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5122231/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079405", "name": "Stacy Gage", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5079405/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5141697", "name": "Winston Watkins Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 354 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5114311", "name": "Jackson Harris", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 317 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5114311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4921154", "name": "Eugene Wilson III", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 210 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/4921154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5079420", "name": "Trey'Dez Green", "position": "TE", "workload": "14 REC, 222 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/athletes/5079420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Trey'Dez Green", "id": "5079420", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 7 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "14 REC, 222 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Phillip Wright III", "id": "5149484", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 4 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Green is a primary receiving TE with 14 catches/222 yards, third in total receiving yards. Replacement routes need confirmation; receiver redistribution rather than nominal TE substitution may carry opportunity. Do not treat this candidate list as confirmed depth chart.", "confirmed": [ "Trey'Dez Green" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Trey'Dez Green", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "TightenUpON": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Green is a primary receiving TE with 14 catches/222 yards, third in total receiving yards. Replacement routes need confirmation; receiver redistribution rather than nominal TE substitution may carry opportunity. Do not treat this candidate list as confirmed depth chart.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5079420", "name": "Trey'Dez Green", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/458", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 48, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 29, "receivingYards": 353, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.5, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 222, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "99" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141697", "name": "Winston Watkins Jr.", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/465", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "99", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "145", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 20, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5, "receptions": 24, "receivingYards": 363, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 23, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 7.699999809265137, "receptions": 23, "receivingYards": 354, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "99", "145" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5114311", "name": "Jackson Harris", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/466", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 19, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5114311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "62", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 49, "receivingYards": 963, "receivingTD": 12, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5114311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 317, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5114311/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "24", "62" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4921154", "name": "Eugene Wilson III", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/467", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 266, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4921154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "57", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 12, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4, "receptions": 27, "receivingYards": 239, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4921154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "99", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 13, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.300000190734863, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 210, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4921154/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "57" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Winston Watkins Jr.", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/99/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/99/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856715", "teamId": "96", "team": "Kentucky Wildcats", "side": "home", "opponent": "LSU Tigers", "conferenceReportKey": "Kentucky", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4918099", "name": "Kenny Minchey", "position": "QB", "workload": "97/142, 1148 YDS, 11 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4918099/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4879824", "name": "Callum Wither", "position": "QB", "workload": "0/1, 0 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4879824/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4870609", "name": "CJ Baxter", "position": "RB", "workload": "68 CAR, 361 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4870609/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5123048", "name": "Jason Patterson", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 355 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/5123048/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685269", "name": "Jovantae Barnes", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 126 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4685269/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5215172", "name": "Kenny Darby", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 322 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/5215172/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4699866", "name": "Nic Anderson", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4699866/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5294137", "name": "DJ Miller", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 96 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/5294137/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5136838", "name": "Willie Rodriguez", "position": "TE", "workload": "22 REC, 194 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/5136838/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4826637", "name": "Henry Boyer", "position": "TE", "workload": "8 REC, 116 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/athletes/4826637/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Kentucky Wildcats: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/96/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/96/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.409090909090907, 23.34090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.957851504695043, 26.70084655419153 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 32.41416666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.414166666666667, 21.531666666666666 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401862798", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.416666666666668, 38.25 ], "current_rates": [ 24.0, 23.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 34.583333333333336, 22.5 ], "current_rates": [ 38.6, 22.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.0, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 38.25, "margin": -11.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401762430", "401762458", "401762463", "401752715", "401762476", "401762482", "401762487", "401757173", "401762502", "401762506", "401762511", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 23.4, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.583333333333336, "pa": 22.5, "margin": 12.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401761598", "401761608", "401752708", "401762472", "401762478", "401762487", "401762494", "401762497", "401762501", "401762508", "401762516" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.6, "pa": 22.4, "margin": 16.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401862695", "401860881", "401862772", "401862787" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.2, 31.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.9516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.0, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.0, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 38.25, "margin": -11.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401762430", "401762458", "401762463", "401752715", "401762476", "401762482", "401762487", "401757173", "401762502", "401762506", "401762511", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.0, "pa": 23.4, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.583333333333336, "pa": 22.5, "margin": 12.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401761598", "401761608", "401752708", "401762472", "401762478", "401762487", "401762494", "401762497", "401762501", "401762508", "401762516" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.6, "pa": 22.4, "margin": 16.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401862695", "401860881", "401862772", "401862787" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.2, 31.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.9516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.0, 39.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.0, 39.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401862798", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401862798", "teamId": "5", "team": "UAB Blazers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Memphis Tigers", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5057381", "name": "Ryder Burton", "position": "QB", "workload": "62/110, 791 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5057381/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5197123", "name": "Nate Rogers", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/2, 13 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5197123/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4918110", "name": "Rod Robinson II", "position": "RB", "workload": "74 CAR, 338 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/4918110/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4897730", "name": "Bam McReynolds", "position": "RB", "workload": "54 CAR, 260 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/4897730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5157261", "name": "Ja'Vin Simpkins", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 108 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5157261/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4711421", "name": "CJ Smith", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 223 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/4711421/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5092470", "name": "Ty Mims", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 223 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5092470/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219011", "name": "EJ Reid", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5219011/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5081640", "name": "Scott Isacks", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 46 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5081640/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5203714", "name": "Gabriel Cline", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 18 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/athletes/5203714/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "UAB Blazers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/5/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/5/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401862798", "teamId": "235", "team": "Memphis Tigers", "side": "home", "opponent": "UAB Blazers", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5165807", "name": "Marcus Stokes", "position": "QB", "workload": "90/123, 1371 YDS, 14 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5165807/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079548", "name": "Air Noland", "position": "QB", "workload": "7/9, 83 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5079548/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5222671", "name": "Jaylin Carter", "position": "RB", "workload": "70 CAR, 513 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5222671/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4922983", "name": "Manny Covey", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 218 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/4922983/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4698727", "name": "Dallan Hayden", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 172 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/4698727/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5264658", "name": "Jermane Hayes", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 242 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5264658/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685290", "name": "Tychaun Chapman", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 176 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/4685290/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079354", "name": "Stonka Burnside", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 143 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5079354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5220352", "name": "Hunter Tipton", "position": "TE", "workload": "19 REC, 367 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5220352/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5229953", "name": "Aidan O'Callaghan", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/athletes/5229953/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Memphis Tigers: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "American official reports pending at capture; first Oct10 09:00 CT, other releases through 16:00 CT" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/235/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/235/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.136363636363633, 34.70454545454545 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.59758879278566, 39.23959489199458 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401864517", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 17.94090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.583333333333332, 27.5 ], "current_rates": [ 27.25, 24.25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.333333333333332, 30.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 16.4, 41.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 24.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 24.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 22.436080811904493 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.583333333333332, "pa": 27.5, "margin": -9.916666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401760365", "401757258", "401757268", "401760383", "401760390", "401760395", "401760397", "401760409", "401760413", "401760419", "401760425" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.25, "pa": 24.25, "margin": 3.0, "event_ids": [ "401864432", "401864500", "401864443", "401864509" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 30.416666666666668, "margin": -7.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401757225", "401757231", "401752706", "401757267", "401757272", "401757277", "401757284", "401757289", "401757297", "401757304", "401757309", "401757310" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -25.0, "event_ids": [ "401856664", "401864505", "401858450", "401860895", "401864514" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.0, 25.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.325, 20.325 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.583333333333332, "pa": 27.5, "margin": -9.916666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401760365", "401757258", "401757268", "401760383", "401760390", "401760395", "401760397", "401760409", "401760413", "401760419", "401760425" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.25, "pa": 24.25, "margin": 3.0, "event_ids": [ "401864432", "401864500", "401864443", "401864509" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 30.416666666666668, "margin": -7.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401757225", "401757231", "401752706", "401757267", "401757272", "401757277", "401757284", "401757289", "401757297", "401757304", "401757309", "401757310" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -25.0, "event_ids": [ "401856664", "401864505", "401858450", "401860895", "401864514" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.0, 25.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.325, 20.325 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401864517", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401864517", "teamId": "2440", "team": "Nevada Wolf Pack", "side": "away", "opponent": "UTEP Miners", "conferenceReportKey": "Nevada", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5205097", "name": "Carter Jones", "position": "QB", "workload": "42/70, 572 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5205097/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4819250", "name": "AJ Bianco", "position": "QB", "workload": "12/21, 116 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/4819250/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5265178", "name": "Dominic Kelley", "position": "RB", "workload": "54 CAR, 341 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5265178/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5220671", "name": "Herschel Turner", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 234 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5220671/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4833591", "name": "Ky Woods", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 47 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/4833591/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5226511", "name": "Gary Givens III", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 164 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5226511/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158756", "name": "Damien Morgan", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 126 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5158756/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5153499", "name": "Donnie Cheers", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5153499/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5216506", "name": "DJ Asiasi", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5216506/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219598", "name": "Trace Estes", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 37 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/athletes/5219598/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Nevada Wolf Pack: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2440/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2440/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401864517", "teamId": "2638", "team": "UTEP Miners", "side": "home", "opponent": "Nevada Wolf Pack", "conferenceReportKey": "UTEP", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141395", "name": "EJ Colson Jr.", "position": "QB", "workload": "49/77, 541 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5141395/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5232049", "name": "Raymond Moore III", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/18, 78 YDS, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5232049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4685418", "name": "Tavorus Jones", "position": "RB", "workload": "40 CAR, 196 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/4685418/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5221272", "name": "Elijah McCoy", "position": "RB", "workload": "6 CAR, 28 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5221272/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5390016", "name": "Chris Hunter", "position": "RB", "workload": "5 CAR, 21 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5390016/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5168770", "name": "Carver Cheeks", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 168 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5168770/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4877714", "name": "Jaden Smith", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 87 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/4877714/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5390023", "name": "Jeremiah Nash", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 56 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5390023/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5172260", "name": "Cash Cheeks", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 59 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5172260/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5268744", "name": "Jackson Stoner", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/athletes/5268744/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Mason Ferguson", "id": "5148710", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "CJ Simon", "id": "5296559", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Tavorus Jones", "id": "4685418", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "40 CAR, 196 YDS, 1 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "7 REC, 22 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "EJ Colson Jr.", "id": "5141395", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "49/77, 541 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "67 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Colson 77 attempts and 67 rushes is principal QB; Jones 40 carries/196 yards is material RB. Both QUESTIONABLE in Thursday initial report. Raymond Moore III has 18 attempts and 33 carries/294 yards; Braesen Leon has one attempt. Actual starting replacement remains unconfirmed. If both unavailable, separate QB passing and RB carry pathways support -6 human sensitivity; no extra deduction for QB rushing.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "EJ Colson Jr.", "Tavorus Jones" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ], "TightenUpON": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] } }, { "name": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ], "TightenUpON": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Colson 77 attempts and 67 rushes is principal QB; Jones 40 carries/196 yards is material RB. Both QUESTIONABLE in Thursday initial report. Raymond Moore III has 18 attempts and 33 carries/294 yards; Braesen Leon has one attempt. Actual starting replacement remains unconfirmed. If both unavailable, separate QB passing and RB carry pathways support -6 human sensitivity; no extra deduction for QB rushing.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.679545454545455, 17.94090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.54230327367908, 22.436080811904493 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5141395", "name": "EJ Colson Jr.", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/470", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2116", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 16, "passingYards": 64, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 4, "completionPct": 56.25, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 4, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": 14, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.0770000219345093, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141395/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2916", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 296, "passingYards": 2142, "passingTD": 16, "interceptions": 4, "sacks": 27, "completionPct": 70.94599914550781, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.236000061035156, "rushAttempts": 108, "rushingYards": 287, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.6570000648498535, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141395/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 77, "passingYards": 541, "passingTD": 7, "interceptions": 3, "sacks": 16, "completionPct": 63.599998474121094, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7, "rushAttempts": 67, "rushingYards": 93, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.399999976158142, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141395/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2116", "2916" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4685418", "name": "Tavorus Jones", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/472", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 12, "rushingYards": 57, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.75, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4685418/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "142", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 7, "rushingYards": 31, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.428999900817871, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 26, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4685418/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 40, "rushingYards": 196, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.900000095367432, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 22, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4685418/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "142" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5232049", "name": "Raymond Moore III", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/474", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2415", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5232049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2415", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 166, "passingYards": 1035, "passingTD": 8, "interceptions": 7, "sacks": 22, "completionPct": 54.21699905395508, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.235000133514404, "rushAttempts": 87, "rushingYards": 414, "rushingTD": 6, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.758999824523926, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5232049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 18, "passingYards": 78, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 2, "sacks": 4, "completionPct": 50, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 4.300000190734863, "rushAttempts": 33, "rushingYards": 294, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8.899999618530273, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5232049/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2415" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5390014", "name": "Braesen Leon", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/475", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2638", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5390014/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2638", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5390014/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 22, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 22, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -12, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -12, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5390014/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2638" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5221272", "name": "Elijah McCoy", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/769", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2638", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5221272/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 15, "rushingYards": 47, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.132999897003174, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 3, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5221272/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 6, "rushingYards": 28, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.699999809265137, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5221272/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2638" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5091891", "name": "Lamar Sperling", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/770", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2084", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 35, "rushingYards": 131, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.743000030517578, "receptions": 4, "receivingYards": 31, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5091891/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2084", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 39, "rushingYards": 234, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5091891/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 8, "rushingYards": 20, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.5, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 18, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5091891/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2084" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5390015", "name": "Jaden Moore", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/771", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2638", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5390015/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2638", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5390015/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 9, "rushingYards": 16, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1.7999999523162842, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5390015/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2638" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Raymond Moore III", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Braesen Leon", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Braesen Leon", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Elijah McCoy", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Jaden Moore", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Jaden Moore", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: EJ Colson Jr., Tavorus Jones" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2638/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2638/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.679545454545455, 17.94090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.54230327367908, 22.436080811904493 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401864518", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 41.07692307692308, 13.0 ], "current_rates": [ 33.6, 9.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 35.92307692307692, 28.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 25.0, 23.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 22.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 22.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.07692307692308, "pa": 13.0, "margin": 28.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767224", "401767217", "401767510", "401767438", "401767511", "401767449", "401767512", "401767513", "401767507", "401767514", "401767515", "401836198" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.6, "pa": 9.8, "margin": 23.8, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401864499", "401864502", "401864507", "401864515" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 35.92307692307692, "pa": 28.846153846153847, "margin": 7.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401757224", "401752823", "401760376", "401760385", "401760386", "401760393", "401760404", "401760407", "401760414", "401760418", "401760425", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.0, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 1.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401864497", "401862705", "401864512", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.340000000000001, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 36.0, 18.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36.0, 18.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.07692307692308, "pa": 13.0, "margin": 28.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767224", "401767217", "401767510", "401767438", "401767511", "401767449", "401767512", "401767513", "401767507", "401767514", "401767515", "401836198" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.6, "pa": 9.8, "margin": 23.8, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401864499", "401864502", "401864507", "401864515" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 35.92307692307692, "pa": 28.846153846153847, "margin": 7.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401757224", "401752823", "401760376", "401760385", "401760386", "401760393", "401760404", "401760407", "401760414", "401760418", "401760425", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.0, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 1.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401864497", "401862705", "401864512", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.340000000000001, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 36.0, 18.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36.0, 18.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401864518", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401864518", "teamId": "2449", "team": "North Dakota State Bison", "side": "away", "opponent": "UNLV Rebels", "conferenceReportKey": "North Dakota State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5087156", "name": "Nathan Hayes", "position": "QB", "workload": "75/116, 995 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/5087156/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5156994", "name": "Trey Drake", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/4, 35 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/5156994/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5154224", "name": "DJ Scott", "position": "RB", "workload": "70 CAR, 298 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/5154224/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5297931", "name": "Myles Mitchell", "position": "RB", "workload": "46 CAR, 214 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/5297931/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5157399", "name": "Nyeoti Punni", "position": "RB", "workload": "26 CAR, 129 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/5157399/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5228002", "name": "Jackson Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 358 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/5228002/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4832952", "name": "Mekhi Collins", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 164 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/4832952/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912254", "name": "Jordan McCants", "position": "WR", "workload": "2 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/4912254/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5228015", "name": "Reis Kessel", "position": "TE", "workload": "13 REC, 150 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/5228015/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5087169", "name": "Luke Kokat", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 12 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/athletes/5087169/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Braylon Toliver", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Drake Schlosser", "id": "5297928", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Kye Schlichting", "id": "5388943", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Cash Danner", "id": "5388951", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Brandon Walton", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Noah Nelson", "id": "5297960", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Cortez LeGrant", "id": "5150682", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Barry Kpeenu", "id": "5310992", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "10 CAR, 25 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "North Dakota State Bison: current report contains 8 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2449/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2449/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Kpeenu ten carries trails Scott70/Mitchell46/Punni26; no lead/material committee trigger established.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401864518", "teamId": "2439", "team": "UNLV Rebels", "side": "home", "opponent": "North Dakota State Bison", "conferenceReportKey": "UNLV", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870607", "name": "Jackson Arnold", "position": "QB", "workload": "79/133, 1063 YDS, 8 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4870607/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685495", "name": "Alex Orji", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/5, 9 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4685495/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5125754", "name": "Jai'Den Thomas", "position": "RB", "workload": "73 CAR, 383 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/5125754/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4808744", "name": "Jaylon Glover", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 89 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4808744/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5125730", "name": "Darrien Jones", "position": "RB", "workload": "10 CAR, 26 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/5125730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4870965", "name": "Taz Reddicks", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 272 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4870965/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5149831", "name": "Kayden McGee", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 188 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/5149831/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4940235", "name": "Taeshaun Lyons", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 120 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4940235/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4685289", "name": "Keyan Burnett", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/4685289/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5145523", "name": "Jae Beasley II", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 31 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/athletes/5145523/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "DeAngelo Irvin Jr.", "id": "5125768", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 30 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "UNLV Rebels: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2439/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2439/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Irvin three catches versus Reddicks14/McGee8/Lyons11; secondary rotation, no main-role deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401868065", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 44.07692307692308, 18.0 ], "current_rates": [ 39.4, 21.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 35.083333333333336, 27.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 37.0, 16.166666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.0, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.07692307692308, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 26.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767126", "401762432", "401767304", "401767305", "401767306", "401767294", "401767307", "401767301", "401767281", "401767244", "401767290", "401767276", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.4, "pa": 21.6, "margin": 17.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401866410", "401868236", "401868237", "401867688" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 7.7500000000000036, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752685", "401767248", "401767239", "401767249", "401767250", "401767251", "401767252", "401767253", "401767254", "401767255", "401767276" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.0, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 20.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401856669", "401868061", "401868062", "401868063", "401868064" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5293589743589742, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Route, arrival timing and travel burden unestimated." } ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cheney&state=WA&site=OTX&textField1=47.4875&textField2=-117.575&e=0", "retrieved": "2026-10-10T10:06:16.923766+00:00", "status": "ok", "currentForecast": "Overnight Mostly clear, with a steady temperature around 40. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Areas of frost between 7am and 8am. Snow level 3400 feet rising to 4700 feet in the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 55. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Snow level 4800 feet lowering to 2500 feet after midnight . Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. Light north wind becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "324", "side": "away", "player": "Colton Hinton", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 33.916666666666664, "margin": -11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401754616", "401761597", "401761604", "401761611", "401761619", "401761623", "401761629", "401761640", "401761645", "401761650", "401752779", "401761662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 25.0, "margin": -0.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401868008", "401869940", "401869941", "401869942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.75, "pa": 30.25, "margin": 0.5, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401757228", "401761606", "401757264", "401761615", "401761626", "401761632", "401761640", "401761646", "401761651", "401761656", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22.2, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -12.8, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401871045", "401871047", "401868188", "401869962" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.10166666666666693, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401869943", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401869943", "teamId": "324", "team": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Marshall Thundering Herd", "conferenceReportKey": "Coastal Carolina", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5296439", "name": "Deuce Bailey", "position": "QB", "workload": "85/155, 1267 YDS, 12 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5296439/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5152029", "name": "Tre Guerra", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/3, 6 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5152029/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5203477", "name": "Dominic Lee-Knicely", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 193 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5203477/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5265325", "name": "Jevon Edwards", "position": "RB", "workload": "44 CAR, 141 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5265325/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193388", "name": "Jaden Allen-Hendrix", "position": "RB", "workload": "12 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5193388/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5265446", "name": "Clayton Coppock Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 231 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5265446/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5153389", "name": "Colton Hinton", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 220 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5153389/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296438", "name": "Tristian Gardner", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 218 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5296438/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5095242", "name": "Cyrus Ellison", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 48 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5095242/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5379841", "name": "Ben Verges", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 17 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/athletes/5379841/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Colton Hinton", "id": "5153389", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "10 REC, 220 YDS, 4 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Hinton second receiving yards 10/220 and four TD; QUESTIONABLE creates two scenarios without assigning an availability probability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Colton Hinton" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Colton Hinton", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 24.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "Primary": [ 18.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "TightenUpON": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Hinton second receiving yards 10/220 and four TD; QUESTIONABLE creates two scenarios without assigning an availability probability.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5153389", "name": "Colton Hinton", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/532", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "231", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 29, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 29, "rushAttempts": 4, "rushingYards": 26, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.5, "receptions": 59, "receivingYards": 649, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5153389/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 8, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5153389/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 220, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5153389/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "231", "324" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5265446", "name": "Clayton Coppock Jr.", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/537", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "324", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5265446/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "338", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 12, "rushingYards": 47, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.9170000553131104, "receptions": 26, "receivingYards": 304, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5265446/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 231, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5265446/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "324", "338" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5296438", "name": "Tristian Gardner", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/538", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "324", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5296438/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2623", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 30, "receivingYards": 465, "receivingTD": 6, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5296438/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 218, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5296438/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "324", "2623" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4870699", "name": "Karmello English", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/539", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2698", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 48, "receivingYards": 693, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 178, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "324", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 10, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 169, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870699/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2698", "324" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Clayton Coppock Jr.", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Tristian Gardner", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Colton Hinton" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/324/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/324/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401869943", "teamId": "276", "team": "Marshall Thundering Herd", "side": "home", "opponent": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "conferenceReportKey": "Marshall", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4432691", "name": "Carlos Del Rio-Wilson", "position": "QB", "workload": "88/134, 1004 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/4432691/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685697", "name": "Zion Turner", "position": "QB", "workload": "15/24, 155 YDS, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/4685697/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5084210", "name": "Jo'Shon Barbie", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 207 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5084210/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5300926", "name": "TJ Lester", "position": "RB", "workload": "22 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5300926/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5161776", "name": "Judah Price", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 83 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5161776/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5081172", "name": "Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 324 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5081172/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5225343", "name": "Owen Sweeney", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 128 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5225343/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5089545", "name": "De'Andre Tamarez", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 106 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/5089545/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4869602", "name": "Toby Payne", "position": "TE", "workload": "19 REC, 147 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/athletes/4869602/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Marshall Thundering Herd: current report contains 0 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/276/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/276/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401856712", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.923076923076923, 15.923076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 51.4, 13.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.23076923076923, 17.384615384615383 ], "current_rates": [ 49.6, 20.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29.0, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 32.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 32.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.923076923076923, "pa": 15.923076923076923, "margin": 16.0, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401752685", "401752705", "401752718", "401752728", "401752731", "401752742", "401752755", "401752762", "401752766", "401752776", "401752786", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 51.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 38.0, "event_ids": [ "401856658", "401856673", "401856686", "401856700", "401856705" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.23076923076923, "pa": 17.384615384615383, "margin": 13.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401752665", "401752681", "401752696", "401752718", "401752726", "401752734", "401752738", "401752751", "401752759", "401752765", "401752773", "401752784", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 49.6, "pa": 20.8, "margin": 28.8, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401856674", "401856685", "401856696", "401856707" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.135384615384615, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.923076923076923, "pa": 15.923076923076923, "margin": 16.0, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401752685", "401752705", "401752718", "401752728", "401752731", "401752742", "401752755", "401752762", "401752766", "401752776", "401752786", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 51.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 38.0, "event_ids": [ "401856658", "401856673", "401856686", "401856700", "401856705" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.23076923076923, "pa": 17.384615384615383, "margin": 13.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401752665", "401752681", "401752696", "401752718", "401752726", "401752734", "401752738", "401752751", "401752759", "401752765", "401752773", "401752784", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 49.6, "pa": 20.8, "margin": 28.8, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401856674", "401856685", "401856696", "401856707" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.135384615384615, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856712", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856712", "teamId": "61", "team": "Georgia Bulldogs", "side": "away", "opponent": "Alabama Crimson Tide", "conferenceReportKey": "Georgia", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685578", "name": "Gunner Stockton", "position": "QB", "workload": "77/102, 1049 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/4685578/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079679", "name": "Ryan Puglisi", "position": "QB", "workload": "17/28, 197 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5079679/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5084047", "name": "Nate Frazier", "position": "RB", "workload": "26 CAR, 211 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5084047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079561", "name": "Dwight Phillips Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 160 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5079561/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5172095", "name": "Bo Walker", "position": "RB", "workload": "20 CAR, 134 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5172095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5263766", "name": "Craig Dandridge", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 177 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5263766/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141671", "name": "Talyn Taylor", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 176 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5141671/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5105269", "name": "Sacovie White-Helton", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5105269/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870874", "name": "Lawson Luckie", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/4870874/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141756", "name": "Elyiss Williams", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 71 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/athletes/5141756/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Thomas Blackshear", "id": "5149473", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "5 REC, 48 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Chauncey Bowens", "id": "5079335", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "35 CAR, 124 YDS, 6 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "10 REC, 132 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Isiah Canion", "id": "5132253", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 28 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Bowens leads RB carries (35) and has six rushing TD plus 10 catches/132 yards. Clear material committee/red-zone role. Current baseline reflects some absence exposure; no invented efficiency conversion. Blackshear 5 catches and Canion 3 are secondary role uncertainties, not headcount additions.", "confirmed": [ "Chauncey Bowens" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "Primary": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "TightenUpON": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Bowens leads RB carries (35) and has six rushing TD plus 10 catches/132 yards. Clear material committee/red-zone role. Current baseline reflects some absence exposure; no invented efficiency conversion. Blackshear 5 catches and Canion 3 are secondary role uncertainties, not headcount additions.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5079335", "name": "Chauncey Bowens", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/556", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 16, "rushingYards": 58, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.625, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 98, "rushingYards": 516, "rushingTD": 6, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.264999866485596, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 82, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 35, "rushingYards": 124, "rushingTD": 6, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.5, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 132, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "61" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5084047", "name": "Nate Frazier", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/561", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 129, "rushingYards": 634, "rushingTD": 8, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.914999961853027, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 68, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5084047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 13, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 158, "rushingYards": 861, "rushingTD": 6, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.448999881744385, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 74, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5084047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 26, "rushingYards": 211, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8.100000381469727, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 5, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5084047/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "61" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5079561", "name": "Dwight Phillips Jr.", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/562", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 6, "rushingYards": 33, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.5, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 24, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079561/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 35, "rushingYards": 210, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": -6, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079561/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 20, "rushingYards": 160, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8, "receptions": 7, "receivingYards": 86, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079561/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "61" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5172095", "name": "Bo Walker", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/563", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "61", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5172095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 22, "rushingYards": 100, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.545000076293945, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 2, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5172095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "61", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 20, "rushingYards": 134, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.699999809265137, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 6, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5172095/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "61" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Bo Walker", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/61/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/61/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Blackshear five and Canion three catches versus main WRs9/12/10 and Luckie six; no established main role beyond separately reviewed Bowens rushing contribution.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856712", "teamId": "333", "team": "Alabama Crimson Tide", "side": "home", "opponent": "Georgia Bulldogs", "conferenceReportKey": "Alabama", "officialReport": { "url": "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report", "officialLanding": "https://www.secsports.com/fbreports", "posted": "2026-10-09 19:10 America/Chicago", "conference": "SEC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141629", "name": "Keelon Russell", "position": "QB", "workload": "94/132, 1414 YDS, 11 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5141629/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079508", "name": "Austin Mack", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/4, 23 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5079508/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079506", "name": "Daniel Hill", "position": "RB", "workload": "51 CAR, 247 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5079506/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5327659", "name": "Trae'shawn Brown", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 211 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5327659/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5264688", "name": "EJ Crowell", "position": "RB", "workload": "26 CAR, 204 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5264688/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5141711", "name": "Ryan Coleman-Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "20 REC, 376 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5141711/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141394", "name": "Lotzeir Brooks", "position": "WR", "workload": "21 REC, 352 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5141394/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079714", "name": "Rico Scott", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 196 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5079714/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5164343", "name": "Marshall Pritchett", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 148 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5164343/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5142591", "name": "Kaleb Edwards", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/athletes/5142591/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Josh Ford", "id": "5124338", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 3 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Alabama Crimson Tide: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/333/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/333/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://app.hdintelligence.com/?source=SEC&sport=Football&conf=SEC&type=report" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Ford one catch compared with Pritchett7/Edwards9; not primary receiving-TE role.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858258", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 20.166666666666668, 34.916666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 34.75, 23.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.15384615384615, 20.53846153846154 ], "current_rates": [ 33.8, 18.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.0, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.0, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 13.5, 34.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 34.916666666666664, "margin": -14.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752676", "401754618", "401754532", "401754537", "401754545", "401754555", "401754568", "401754571", "401754575", "401754587", "401754604", "401754608" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 11.75, "event_ids": [ "401858208", "401858216", "401858225", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 32.15384615384615, "pa": 20.53846153846154, "margin": 11.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401754616", "401754524", "401754619", "401754539", "401754543", "401754554", "401752951", "401754573", "401754576", "401754589", "401754593", "401754613", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858202", "401858220", "401856802", "401858239", "401858253" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.352564102564102, 33.53525641025641 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.375, 28.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.041538461538461, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 34.916666666666664, "margin": -14.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752676", "401754618", "401754532", "401754537", "401754545", "401754555", "401754568", "401754571", "401754575", "401754587", "401754604", "401754608" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 11.75, "event_ids": [ "401858208", "401858216", "401858225", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 32.15384615384615, "pa": 20.53846153846154, "margin": 11.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401754616", "401754524", "401754619", "401754539", "401754543", "401754554", "401752951", "401754573", "401754576", "401754589", "401754593", "401754613", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858202", "401858220", "401856802", "401858239", "401858253" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.352564102564102, 33.53525641025641 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.375, 28.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.041538461538461, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858258", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858258", "teamId": "183", "team": "Syracuse Orange", "side": "away", "opponent": "Virginia Cavaliers", "conferenceReportKey": "Syracuse", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685694", "name": "Steve Angeli", "position": "QB", "workload": "57/104, 731 YDS, 4 TD, 5 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/4685694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5153782", "name": "Amari Odom", "position": "QB", "workload": "37/48, 398 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5153782/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5261613", "name": "Tylik Hill", "position": "RB", "workload": "46 CAR, 287 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5261613/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5289321", "name": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "30 CAR, 146 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5289321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5154420", "name": "Ahmad Miller", "position": "RB", "workload": "24 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5154420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4691315", "name": "Umari Hatcher", "position": "WR", "workload": "29 REC, 434 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/4691315/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4910239", "name": "Justus Ross-Simmons", "position": "WR", "workload": "10 REC, 161 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/4910239/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5212990", "name": "Darius Johnson", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 109 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5212990/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5210515", "name": "Daunte Bacheyie", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 120 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5210515/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5004520", "name": "David Clement", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/athletes/5004520/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Darien Williams", "id": "5206061", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "4 REC, 25 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Steve Angeli", "id": "4685694", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "57/104, 731 YDS, 4 TD, 5 INT" } ] }, { "name": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "id": "5289321", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "30 CAR, 146 YDS, 3 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 15 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Terrell Wilfong", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Amari Odom", "id": "5153782", "position": "QB", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "37/48, 398 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "9 CAR, 2 YDS, 1 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Angeli OUT; replacement Odom DOUBTFUL after 335 yards/five TD versus UConn. QB branch Angeli\u2192Odom or Angeli\u2192next reserve has one -3; no stacking two unavailable QBs occupying one role. Anderson 30 carries/146 yards is material RB, separate -3 rushing pathway. Joint -6 QB+RB; third-QB efficiency is unestimated and final actual reserve selection still unresolved.", "confirmed": [ "Steve Angeli", "Shavane Anderson Jr." ], "conditional": [ "Amari Odom" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "Primary": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "TightenUpON": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } }, { "name": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "Primary": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "TightenUpON": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } }, { "name": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "Primary": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "TightenUpON": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -6, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Angeli OUT; replacement Odom DOUBTFUL after 335 yards/five TD versus UConn. QB branch Angeli\u2192Odom or Angeli\u2192next reserve has one -3; no stacking two unavailable QBs occupying one role. Anderson 30 carries/146 yards is material RB, separate -3 rushing pathway. Joint -6 QB+RB; third-QB efficiency is unestimated and final actual reserve selection still unresolved.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4685694", "name": "Steve Angeli", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/609", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 28, "passingYards": 224, "passingTD": 3, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 3, "completionPct": 64.28600311279297, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8, "rushAttempts": 7, "rushingYards": 21, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4685694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 156, "passingYards": 1317, "passingTD": 10, "interceptions": 2, "sacks": 11, "completionPct": 62.82099914550781, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.442000389099121, "rushAttempts": 23, "rushingYards": -33, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -1.434999942779541, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4685694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 104, "passingYards": 731, "passingTD": 4, "interceptions": 5, "sacks": 8, "completionPct": 54.79999923706055, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7, "rushAttempts": 14, "rushingYards": -23, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -1.600000023841858, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4685694/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "87", "183" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5153782", "name": "Amari Odom", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/610", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2747", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 211, "passingYards": 1565, "passingTD": 7, "interceptions": 6, "sacks": 16, "completionPct": 55.45000076293945, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.416999816894531, "rushAttempts": 44, "rushingYards": -41, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -0.9319999814033508, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5153782/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "338", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 256, "passingYards": 2385, "passingTD": 18, "interceptions": 6, "sacks": 17, "completionPct": 66.7969970703125, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 9.315999984741211, "rushAttempts": 112, "rushingYards": 376, "rushingTD": 7, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.3570001125335693, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5153782/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 48, "passingYards": 398, "passingTD": 6, "interceptions": 2, "sacks": 2, "completionPct": 77.0999984741211, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.300000190734863, "rushAttempts": 9, "rushingYards": 2, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0.20000000298023224, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5153782/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2747", "338" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5289321", "name": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/608", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "183", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5289321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "183", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5289321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 30, "rushingYards": 146, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.900000095367432, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 15, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5289321/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "183" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4870928", "name": "Malachi Nelson", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/772", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "68", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 17, "passingYards": 128, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 2, "completionPct": 70.58799743652344, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.5289998054504395, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": -11, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -5.5, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870928/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2638", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 190, "passingYards": 1163, "passingTD": 8, "interceptions": 9, "sacks": 10, "completionPct": 54.73699951171875, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.120999813079834, "rushAttempts": 23, "rushingYards": -13, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -0.5649999976158142, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870928/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 2, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870928/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "68", "2638" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5086156", "name": "Danny Lauter", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/773", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "46", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 285, "passingYards": 1852, "passingTD": 11, "interceptions": 10, "sacks": 11, "completionPct": 61.40399932861328, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.498000144958496, "rushAttempts": 42, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0.23800000548362732, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5086156/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "46", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 85, "passingYards": 618, "passingTD": 5, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 61.17599868774414, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.270999908447266, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 9, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5086156/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5086156/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "46" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5261613", "name": "Tylik Hill", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/613", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "183", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5261613/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 24, "rushingYards": 129, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.375, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 4, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5261613/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 46, "rushingYards": 287, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.199999809265137, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 5, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5261613/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "183" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5154420", "name": "Ahmad Miller", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/614", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2296", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 18, "rushingYards": 95, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.2779998779296875, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 25, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5154420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2296", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 163, "rushingYards": 1035, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.349999904632568, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 26, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5154420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 24, "rushingYards": 102, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.300000190734863, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 2, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5154420/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2296" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Danny Lauter", "year": 2026, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Tylik Hill", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Amari Odom" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/183/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/183/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "https://cuse.com/news/2026/10/9/football-orange-conclude-road-swing-at-uva", "https://cuse.com/news/2026/8/24/football-brown-names-angeli-qb1" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Darien Williams four catches/25 yards trails Hatcher29/Ross-Simmons10/DariusJohnson12; no extra mainWR deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858258", "teamId": "258", "team": "Virginia Cavaliers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Syracuse Orange", "conferenceReportKey": "Virginia", "officialReport": { "url": "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 20:00 America/New_York; Virginia Tech/California 23:00", "conference": "ACC" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685696", "name": "Beau Pribula", "position": "QB", "workload": "80/118, 961 YDS, 12 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/4685696/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870819", "name": "Eli Holstein", "position": "QB", "workload": "12/18, 180 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/4870819/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5121721", "name": "Jekail Middlebrook", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 242 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/5121721/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4873442", "name": "Xavier Brown", "position": "RB", "workload": "31 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/4873442/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5210729", "name": "Xay Davis", "position": "RB", "workload": "32 CAR, 160 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/5210729/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5147376", "name": "Kameron Courtney", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/5147376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870713", "name": "Rico Flores Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 152 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/4870713/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5222394", "name": "Da'Shawn Martin", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 148 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/5222394/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4685594", "name": "Dakota Twitty", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 62 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/4685594/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5143920", "name": "John Rogers", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 31 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/athletes/5143920/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Dillon Newton-Short", "id": "5212231", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Triston Ward", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Jack Stevens", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Virginia Cavaliers: current report contains 3 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/258/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/258/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://theacc.com/sports/2025/8/28/availability-reporting-football.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858485", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.5, 22.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 37.333333333333336, 25.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.75, 21.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32.0, 16.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.0, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 34.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 31.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.5, "pa": 22.416666666666668, "margin": 14.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752798", "401752814", "401752832", "401752847", "401752850", "401752868", "401752871", "401752892", "401752896", "401752907", "401752911", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.333333333333336, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 11.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401864494", "401858436", "401858445", "401858457", "401858469", "401858478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 21.416666666666668, "margin": 10.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401752811", "401752835", "401752854", "401752855", "401752866", "401752875", "401752889", "401752893", "401752903", "401752908", "401752920" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.0, "pa": 16.0, "margin": 16.0, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401858442", "401858456", "401858466", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.041666666666666435, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.5, "pa": 22.416666666666668, "margin": 14.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752798", "401752814", "401752832", "401752847", "401752850", "401752868", "401752871", "401752892", "401752896", "401752907", "401752911", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.333333333333336, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 11.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401864494", "401858436", "401858445", "401858457", "401858469", "401858478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 21.416666666666668, "margin": 10.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401752811", "401752835", "401752854", "401752855", "401752866", "401752875", "401752889", "401752893", "401752903", "401752908", "401752920" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.0, "pa": 16.0, "margin": 16.0, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401858442", "401858456", "401858466", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.041666666666666435, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.0, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858485", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858485", "teamId": "30", "team": "USC Trojans", "side": "away", "opponent": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "conferenceReportKey": "USC", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685454", "name": "Jayden Maiava", "position": "QB", "workload": "131/191, 1744 YDS, 15 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/4685454/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5161854", "name": "Jonas Williams", "position": "QB", "workload": "12/14, 126 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5161854/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5233016", "name": "King Miller", "position": "RB", "workload": "95 CAR, 493 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5233016/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295318", "name": "Waymond Jordan", "position": "RB", "workload": "57 CAR, 265 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5295318/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5158934", "name": "Shahn Alston", "position": "RB", "workload": "17 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5158934/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5161013", "name": "Kayden Dixon-Wyatt", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 372 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5161013/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146757", "name": "Zacharyus Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 258 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5146757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5160469", "name": "Trent Mosley", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 255 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5160469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5264686", "name": "Mark Bowman", "position": "TE", "workload": "21 REC, 204 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5264686/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4905248", "name": "Carson Tabaracci", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 64 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/4905248/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Corey Simms", "id": "5148664", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "12 REC, 178 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Terrell Anderson", "id": "5084658", "position": "WR", "status": "doubtful", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 50 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Trent Mosley", "id": "5160469", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 8 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "13 REC, 255 YDS, 4 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Mark Bowman", "id": "5264686", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "21 REC, 204 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Trent Mosley", "Mark Bowman" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "Primary": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "TightenUpON": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ] } }, { "name": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "Primary": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "TightenUpON": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -6, "overlapTreatment": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "overlapSensitivity": -3, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5160469", "name": "Trent Mosley", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/585", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5160469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5160469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 8, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8, "receptions": 13, "receivingYards": 255, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5160469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5264686", "name": "Mark Bowman", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/584", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5264686/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5264686/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 21, "receivingYards": 204, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5264686/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5161013", "name": "Kayden Dixon-Wyatt", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/592", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5161013/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5161013/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -5, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -5, "receptions": 25, "receivingYards": 372, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5161013/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5146757", "name": "Zacharyus Williams", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/593", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "254", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 16, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.333000183105469, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 101, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5146757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 80, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5146757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -7, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 258, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5146757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "254", "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5141975", "name": "Tanook Hines", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/594", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141975/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 28, "receivingYards": 398, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141975/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 11, "receivingYards": 113, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141975/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5158959", "name": "Tron Baker", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/595", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5158959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5158959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "30", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 111, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5158959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "30" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [ "Corey Simms" ], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Trent Mosley", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Trent Mosley", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Mark Bowman", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Mark Bowman", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Kayden Dixon-Wyatt", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Kayden Dixon-Wyatt", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Tanook Hines", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Tron Baker", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Tron Baker", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trent Mosley, Mark Bowman", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms", "Decision sensitivity retained for conditional material role: Corey Simms" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/30/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [ { "name": "Corey Simms", "id": "5148664", "status": "out", "reason": "12 catches/178 yards is a material rotation but fourth WR by yards. Retain role-conditional sensitivity; shared target redistribution with Mosley/Bowman prevents automatic three-name multiplication.", "condition": "Only if covered/main-role workload is confirmed; OUT is verified but main-role eligibility is conditional", "incumbentHistoryRef": "player-histories.json#/players/586", "candidateReplacements": [ { "id": "5161013", "name": "Kayden Dixon-Wyatt", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 372 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5161013/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/592" }, { "id": "5146757", "name": "Zacharyus Williams", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 258 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5146757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/593" }, { "id": "5160469", "name": "Trent Mosley", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 255 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/30/athletes/5160469/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/585" } ], "statisticalPointEffect": null, "isolatedHumanDeduction": -3, "jointWithConfirmedDeduction": -3, "overlap": "Shared passing-drive/target uncertainty retained; no automatic extra joint deduction.", "scores": { "Classic": { "isolated": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ] }, "Primary": { "isolated": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ] }, "TightenUpON": { "isolated": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ] }, "TightenUpOFF": { "isolated": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "combinedWithConfirmed": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ] } } } ] } }, { "eventId": "401858485", "teamId": "213", "team": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "side": "home", "opponent": "USC Trojans", "conferenceReportKey": "Penn State", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4801299", "name": "Rocco Becht", "position": "QB", "workload": "83/134, 1108 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/4801299/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164316", "name": "Alex Manske", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/14, 102 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5164316/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5110454", "name": "James Peoples", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 212 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5110454/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5077502", "name": "Carson Hansen", "position": "RB", "workload": "43 CAR, 199 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5077502/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079577", "name": "Quinton Martin Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5079577/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5141525", "name": "Koby Howard", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 344 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5141525/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912067", "name": "Chase Sowell", "position": "WR", "workload": "19 REC, 264 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/4912067/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5148535", "name": "Brett Eskildsen", "position": "WR", "workload": "15 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/5148535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4870608", "name": "Benjamin Brahmer", "position": "TE", "workload": "16 REC, 178 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/4870608/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4899484", "name": "Andrew Rappleyea", "position": "TE", "workload": "10 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/athletes/4899484/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Koby Howard", "id": "5141525", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 24 YDS, 1 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "12 REC, 344 YDS, 2 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Cooper Alexander", "id": "5146740", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Howard leads receiving yards, 12/344, so OUT is a main receiver trigger. Sowell 19/264 and receiving TE Brahmer 16/178 remain available on Friday report; target allocation unestimated. Cooper Alexander has no established primary receiving workload and no automatic extra penalty.", "confirmed": [ "Koby Howard" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "Primary": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "TightenUpON": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Howard leads receiving yards, 12/344, so OUT is a main receiver trigger. Sowell 19/264 and receiving TE Brahmer 16/178 remain available on Friday report; target allocation unestimated. Cooper Alexander has no established primary receiving workload and no automatic extra penalty.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5141525", "name": "Koby Howard", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/570", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "213", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5141525/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "213", "status": "available", "games": 6, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 5, "receivingYards": 99, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5141525/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "213", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 24, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 12, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 344, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5141525/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "213" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4912067", "name": "Chase Sowell", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/577", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "151", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 34, "receivingYards": 678, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4912067/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "66", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 32, "receivingYards": 500, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4912067/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "213", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 264, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4912067/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "151", "66" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5148535", "name": "Brett Eskildsen", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/579", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "66", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 17, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5148535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "66", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 30, "receivingYards": 526, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5148535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "213", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 15, "receivingYards": 128, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5148535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "66" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4870608", "name": "Benjamin Brahmer", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/578", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "66", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 179, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4870608/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "66", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 45, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 45, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": -2, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -2, "receptions": 37, "receivingYards": 446, "receivingTD": 6, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4870608/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "213", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 16, "receivingYards": 178, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4870608/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "66" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Koby Howard", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/213/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/213/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401864516", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 29.833333333333332, 30.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 29.0, 20.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.083333333333332, 24.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 13.75, 36.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 21.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.833333333333332, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401760368", "401760372", "401760378", "401760381", "401760386", "401760392", "401760401", "401760406", "401757174", "401760415", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 29.0, "pa": 20.0, "margin": 9.0, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401864502", "401864509", "401862791" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.083333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -7.25, "event_ids": [ "401762793", "401752826", "401752712", "401760380", "401762873", "401762836", "401762843", "401762845", "401762854", "401762859", "401762864", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 13.75, "pa": 36.25, "margin": -22.5, "event_ids": [ "401858426", "401864503", "401856793", "401864511" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.825, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 18.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 18.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.833333333333332, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401760368", "401760372", "401760378", "401760381", "401760386", "401760392", "401760401", "401760406", "401757174", "401760415", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 29.0, "pa": 20.0, "margin": 9.0, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401864502", "401864509", "401862791" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.083333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -7.25, "event_ids": [ "401762793", "401752826", "401752712", "401760380", "401762873", "401762836", "401762843", "401762845", "401762854", "401762859", "401762864", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 13.75, "pa": 36.25, "margin": -22.5, "event_ids": [ "401858426", "401864503", "401856793", "401864511" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.825, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 18.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 18.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401864516", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401864516", "teamId": "2005", "team": "Air Force Falcons", "side": "away", "opponent": "Northern Illinois Huskies", "conferenceReportKey": "Air Force", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5238868", "name": "Liam Szarka", "position": "QB", "workload": "19/38, 296 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5238868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5306440", "name": "Evan Medders", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/7, 47 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5306440/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5223131", "name": "Rocco Conti", "position": "RB", "workload": "35 CAR, 187 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223131/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5223119", "name": "Owen Allen", "position": "RB", "workload": "43 CAR, 138 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223119/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5295010", "name": "Gage LaDue", "position": "FB", "workload": "15 CAR, 80 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5295010/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5223149", "name": "Adam Hrynciw", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223149/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5238869", "name": "Matt Long", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5238869/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5238876", "name": "Jonah Dawson", "position": "WR", "workload": "3 REC, 39 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5238876/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5223147", "name": "Simon Kibbee", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 103 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/athletes/5223147/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Liam Szarka", "id": "5238868", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "19/38, 296 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "92 CAR, 391 YDS, 7 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Jalen Rashad Turner", "id": "5223123", "position": "RB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 9 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Sylas Maiava-Alaimalo", "id": "5309672", "position": "WR", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 5 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 34 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Griffin Stalfort", "id": "5223138", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "MW lists Szarka out for season; he is team leader in passing and rushing. Medders has seven current pass attempts and 18 rushes; official September note identifies first game action in 2026. Only one -3 for this QB, not separate deduction for being top rusher. Limited prior replacement sample and option execution materially widen uncertainty.", "confirmed": [ "Liam Szarka" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "Primary": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "TightenUpON": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "MW lists Szarka out for season; he is team leader in passing and rushing. Medders has seven current pass attempts and 18 rushes; official September note identifies first game action in 2026. Only one -3 for this QB, not separate deduction for being top rusher. Limited prior replacement sample and option execution materially widen uncertainty.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5238868", "name": "Liam Szarka", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/639", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2005", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5238868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2005", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 120, "passingYards": 1294, "passingTD": 9, "interceptions": 5, "sacks": 9, "completionPct": 62.5, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 10.782999992370605, "rushAttempts": 190, "rushingYards": 922, "rushingTD": 13, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.853000164031982, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5238868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2005", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 38, "passingYards": 296, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 4, "sacks": 2, "completionPct": 50, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 7.800000190734863, "rushAttempts": 92, "rushingYards": 391, "rushingTD": 7, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.300000190734863, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5238868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2005" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5306440", "name": "Evan Medders", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/641", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2005", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5306440/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2005", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5306440/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2005", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 7, "passingYards": 47, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 42.900001525878906, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.699999809265137, "rushAttempts": 18, "rushingYards": 109, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.099999904632568, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5306440/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2005" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Liam Szarka", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Evan Medders", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Evan Medders", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2005/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2005/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "https://goairforcefalcons.com/sports/football/stats/2026", "https://goairforcefalcons.com/news/2026/9/7/football-game-2-air-force-vs-north-dakota-state" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Turner one carry trails Conti35/Allen43/LaDue15; Maiava-Alaimalo two catches/34 yards behind Kibbee6/Hrynciw4/Long4/Dawson3. No extra main role established.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401864516", "teamId": "2459", "team": "Northern Illinois Huskies", "side": "home", "opponent": "Air Force Falcons", "conferenceReportKey": "Northern Illinois", "officialReport": { "url": "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-08 initial reports: Nevada/UTEP 15:24 MT; NDSU/UNLV 14:53 PT; Air Force/NIU 12:10 CT", "conference": "MW" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4881032", "name": "Taron Dickens", "position": "QB", "workload": "84/120, 837 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/4881032/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5210128", "name": "Brady Davidson", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/6, 27 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5210128/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5193302", "name": "Telly Johnson Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "57 CAR, 253 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5193302/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219932", "name": "Elijah Porter", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5219932/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5291180", "name": "Jaiduan Cranford", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 59 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5291180/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5296150", "name": "DeAree Rogers", "position": "WR", "workload": "31 REC, 252 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5296150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193292", "name": "La'Don Bryant", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 185 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5193292/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5083748", "name": "Cam Thompson", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5083748/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5219946", "name": "Jason Fowler", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 25 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5219946/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5215176", "name": "Liam Russo", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 15 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/athletes/5215176/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Rickey Taylor Jr.", "id": "5219936", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "5 REC, 57 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Da'sean Howard", "id": "5388923", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Devin Habermehl", "id": "5222599", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Glen Weber", "id": "5388937", "position": "TE", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 15 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Northern Illinois Huskies: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2459/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2459/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://themw.com/sports/2026/8/21/football_reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Taylor five catches versus Rogers31/Bryant14/Thompson9; Weber three catches/15 yards is low receiving volume, same count as Fowler but lower yards and far below main WRs. No primary receiving loss established.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401869949", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "isolated_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 37.30769230769231, 15.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 44.8, 13.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 27.833333333333332, 34.166666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 24.8, 23.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 34.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 18.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.30769230769231, "pa": 15.846153846153847, "margin": 21.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401754528", "401757262", "401761614", "401761618", "401761625", "401761631", "401761639", "401761646", "401761652", "401752954", "401761662", "401777352" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.8, "pa": 13.2, "margin": 31.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401869960", "401867929", "401860887", "401869961", "401869962" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 23.8, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 5.839487179487179, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41.0, 16.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 38.0, 13.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.30769230769231, "pa": 15.846153846153847, "margin": 21.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401754528", "401757262", "401761614", "401761618", "401761625", "401761631", "401761639", "401761646", "401761652", "401752954", "401761662", "401777352" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.8, "pa": 13.2, "margin": 31.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401869960", "401867929", "401860887", "401869961", "401869962" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 23.8, "margin": 1.0, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.3, 19.0 ], "bounded_mismatch": 5.839487179487179, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41.0, 16.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 38.0, 13.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401869949", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401869949", "teamId": "256", "team": "James Madison Dukes", "side": "away", "opponent": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "conferenceReportKey": "James Madison", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5153978", "name": "Camden Coleman", "position": "QB", "workload": "80/127, 979 YDS, 10 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5153978/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5147757", "name": "Arrington Maiden", "position": "QB", "workload": "7/8, 111 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5147757/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4685494", "name": "George Pettaway", "position": "RB", "workload": "74 CAR, 497 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/4685494/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5298748", "name": "Nick Herman", "position": "RB", "workload": "38 CAR, 260 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5298748/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5225435", "name": "Seth Cromwell", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5225435/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5165803", "name": "Corey Scott", "position": "WR", "workload": "21 REC, 289 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5165803/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5078227", "name": "Braeden Wisloski", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 165 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5078227/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5214955", "name": "Michael Scott", "position": "WR", "workload": "11 REC, 129 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5214955/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5301871", "name": "Cole Keller", "position": "TE", "workload": "12 REC, 163 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5301871/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5227231", "name": "KD Mosley", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/athletes/5227231/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Miles Halbert", "id": "5295796", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Corey Scott", "id": "5165803", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "21 REC, 289 YDS, 4 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Top receiver Corey Scott OUT: 21 catches/289 yards/4 TD. Receiving TE Keller 12/163 and two other current receivers are candidates; target changes not quantitatively projected.", "confirmed": [ "Corey Scott" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 31.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "Primary": [ 27.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "TightenUpON": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Top receiver Corey Scott OUT: 21 catches/289 yards/4 TD. Receiving TE Keller 12/163 and two other current receivers are candidates; target changes not quantitatively projected.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 31.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 27.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5165803", "name": "Corey Scott", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/663", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "110242", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5165803/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "256", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5165803/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 21, "receivingYards": 289, "receivingTD": 4, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5165803/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "110242", "256" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5301871", "name": "Cole Keller", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/670", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "256", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5301871/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2193", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 22, "receivingYards": 226, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5301871/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 163, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5301871/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "256", "2193" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5214955", "name": "Michael Scott", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/671", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "256", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5214955/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 1, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 1, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 85, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5214955/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 1, "rushingYards": 8, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8, "receptions": 11, "receivingYards": 129, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5214955/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "256" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5225335", "name": "Noah Grevious", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/672", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2678", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5225335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2678", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 5, "rushingYards": 87, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 17.399999618530273, "receptions": 52, "receivingYards": 731, "receivingTD": 3, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5225335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "256", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 11, "receivingYards": 116, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5225335/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2678" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Corey Scott", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Corey Scott", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Cole Keller", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Michael Scott", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/256/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/256/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401869949", "teamId": "290", "team": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "side": "home", "opponent": "James Madison Dukes", "conferenceReportKey": "Georgia Southern", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4685740", "name": "Max Johnson", "position": "QB", "workload": "122/186, 1229 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/4685740/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4912238", "name": "Turner Helton", "position": "QB", "workload": "5/8, 70 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/4912238/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5151112", "name": "David Mbadinga", "position": "RB", "workload": "37 CAR, 227 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/5151112/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5151111", "name": "Jamarian Samuel", "position": "RB", "workload": "15 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/5151111/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5155780", "name": "Taeo Todd", "position": "RB", "workload": "18 CAR, 48 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/5155780/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5079736", "name": "Alex Taylor", "position": "WR", "workload": "16 REC, 243 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/5079736/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4869962", "name": "Ashton Hollins", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 202 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/4869962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4838527", "name": "Josh Dallas", "position": "WR", "workload": "29 REC, 179 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/4838527/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4698179", "name": "River Helms", "position": "TE", "workload": "20 REC, 203 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/athletes/4698179/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Josh Dallas", "id": "4838527", "position": "WR", "status": "probable", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "2 CAR, 10 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "29 REC, 179 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "King Phillips", "id": "5390043", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "1 REC, 5 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Ashton Hollins", "id": "4869962", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "14 REC, 202 YDS, 2 TD" } ] } ], "finding": "Hollins OUT for season after 14 catches/202 yards/2 TD, third receiving yards. Dallas PROBABLE with 29 catches and receiving TE Helms 20 catches are redistribution candidates; one-catch reserve King Phillips no additional deduction.", "confirmed": [ "Ashton Hollins" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 34.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "Primary": [ 30.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "TightenUpON": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Hollins OUT for season after 14 catches/202 yards/2 TD, third receiving yards. Dallas PROBABLE with 29 catches and receiving TE Helms 20 catches are redistribution candidates; one-catch reserve King Phillips no additional deduction.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 34.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 34.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 30.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 30.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "4869962", "name": "Ashton Hollins", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/651", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 40, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4869962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "356", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 90, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4869962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 14, "receivingYards": 202, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4869962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "356" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4838527", "name": "Josh Dallas", "position": "WR", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/650", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 24, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 8, "receptions": 41, "receivingYards": 568, "receivingTD": 5, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4838527/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 5, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.5, "receptions": 8, "receivingYards": 68, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4838527/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 2, "rushingYards": 10, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5, "receptions": 29, "receivingYards": 179, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4838527/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "290" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4698179", "name": "River Helms", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/659", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "98", "status": "available", "games": 7, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 19, "receivingYards": 228, "receivingTD": 2, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4698179/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 4, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4698179/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "290", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 20, "receivingYards": 203, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4698179/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "98", "290" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/290/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/290/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Phillips one catch versus Dallas29/Taylor16/Hollins14; no separate mainWR deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401869965", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "309", "side": "away", "player": "Darrell Smith", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ] }, { "teamId": "2348", "side": "home", "player": "Trey Kukuk", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 27.083333333333332, 30.0 ], "current_rates": [ 29.2, 19.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 27.666666666666668, 21.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.0, 29.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 29.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "309", "side": "away", "player": "Darrell Smith", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ] }, { "teamId": "2348", "side": "home", "player": "Trey Kukuk", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401869965", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401869965", "teamId": "309", "team": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "side": "away", "opponent": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "conferenceReportKey": "Louisiana", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4871091", "name": "Lunch Winfield", "position": "QB", "workload": "83/110, 844 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/4871091/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146661", "name": "Daniel Beale", "position": "QB", "workload": "5/8, 52 YDS, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5146661/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5227209", "name": "Anthony Reagan Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "39 CAR, 160 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5227209/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5222657", "name": "Darrell Smith", "position": "RB", "workload": "30 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5222657/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5258999", "name": "JJ Garner", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 154 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5258999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5122096", "name": "KeDarius Wade", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 125 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5122096/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5141364", "name": "Russell Babineaux", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5141364/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5221103", "name": "Landon Strother", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 97 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5221103/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5156928", "name": "Caden Jensen", "position": "TE", "workload": "10 REC, 110 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5156928/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5153377", "name": "Brock Chappell", "position": "TE", "workload": "9 REC, 100 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/athletes/5153377/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Ja'Corian Norris", "id": "5197074", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "0/1, 0 YDS" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 4 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 21 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Jeremiah Birdlow", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Darrell Smith", "id": "5222657", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "30 CAR, 156 YDS, 2 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 9 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Smith 30 carries/156 yards forms a material four-back committee with Reagan39, Garner27 and Blanco36 carries. OUT for season changes distributed rushing workload. Norris 2 catches is no automatic mainWR loss.", "confirmed": [ "Darrell Smith" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Darrell Smith", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "TightenUpON": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Smith 30 carries/156 yards forms a material four-back committee with Reagan39, Garner27 and Blanco36 carries. OUT for season changes distributed rushing workload. Norris 2 catches is no automatic mainWR loss.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5222657", "name": "Darrell Smith", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/687", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "309", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5222657/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 3, "rushingYards": 7, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2.3329999446868896, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5222657/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 30, "rushingYards": 156, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.199999809265137, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 9, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5222657/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "309" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5227209", "name": "Anthony Reagan Jr.", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/690", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "47", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 11, "rushingYards": 22, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 2, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5227209/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "47", "status": "available", "games": 12, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 122, "rushingYards": 671, "rushingTD": 9, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.5, "receptions": 24, "receivingYards": 202, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5227209/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 39, "rushingYards": 160, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.099999904632568, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 19, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5227209/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "47" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5258999", "name": "JJ Garner", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/774", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "309", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5258999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "309", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5258999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 27, "rushingYards": 154, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.699999809265137, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 10, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5258999/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "309" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5194804", "name": "Steven Blanco", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/775", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "309", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5194804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 26, "rushingYards": 144, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.538000106811523, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 29, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5194804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "309", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 36, "rushingYards": 124, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.4000000953674316, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 20, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5194804/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "309" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Darrell Smith", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "JJ Garner", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "JJ Garner", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Steven Blanco", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/309/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/309/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Norris two catches and one carry, versus main receivers14/9/7 and four backs27-39 carries; no main-role deduction.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401869965", "teamId": "2348", "team": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "side": "home", "opponent": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "conferenceReportKey": "Louisiana Tech", "officialReport": { "url": "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx", "posted": "Initial reports October 7-8; exact per-game timestamps retained below", "conference": "SB" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5296376", "name": "Trey Kukuk", "position": "QB", "workload": "48/73, 468 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5296376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150998", "name": "Blake Baker", "position": "QB", "workload": "21/36, 360 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5150998/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5296386", "name": "Dylone Brooks", "position": "RB", "workload": "16 CAR, 169 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5296386/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296374", "name": "Andrew Burnette", "position": "RB", "workload": "29 CAR, 122 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5296374/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5382987", "name": "Jaden Miller", "position": "RB", "workload": "19 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5382987/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5218381", "name": "Jalen Mickens", "position": "WR", "workload": "21 REC, 342 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5218381/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4685517", "name": "Talyn Shettron", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/4685517/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4431484", "name": "Jay Wilkerson", "position": "WR", "workload": "3 REC, 42 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/4431484/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5121453", "name": "Eli Finley", "position": "TE", "workload": "18 REC, 211 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5121453/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296401", "name": "Brayden Bockler", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 7 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/athletes/5296401/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Trey Kukuk", "id": "5296376", "position": "QB", "status": "questionable", "trigger": "conditional qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "48/73, 468 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "32 CAR, 167 YDS, 1 TD" } ] }, { "name": "Dane Benedix", "id": "5296400", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Kukuk top passer 73 attempts and 32 rushes QUESTIONABLE. Baker has 36 attempts/360 yards/four TD. One QB replacement -3 if unavailable; no second rushing penalty for Kukuk's 167 rushing yards.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [ "Trey Kukuk" ], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Trey Kukuk", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 25.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "Primary": [ 20.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "TightenUpON": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Kukuk top passer 73 attempts and 32 rushes QUESTIONABLE. Baker has 36 attempts/360 yards/four TD. One QB replacement -3 if unavailable; no second rushing penalty for Kukuk's 167 rushing yards.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 20.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5296376", "name": "Trey Kukuk", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/676", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2348", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5296376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 10, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 86, "passingYards": 526, "passingTD": 2, "interceptions": 3, "sacks": 6, "completionPct": 66.27899932861328, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.116000175476074, "rushAttempts": 79, "rushingYards": 488, "rushingTD": 5, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.177000045776367, "receptions": 2, "receivingYards": 49, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5296376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 73, "passingYards": 468, "passingTD": 3, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 1, "completionPct": 65.80000305175781, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 6.400000095367432, "rushAttempts": 32, "rushingYards": 167, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.199999809265137, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5296376/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2348" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5150998", "name": "Blake Baker", "position": "QB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/677", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 34, "passingYards": 314, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 3, "sacks": 4, "completionPct": 52.941001892089844, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 9.234999656677246, "rushAttempts": 17, "rushingYards": 11, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0.6470000147819519, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5150998/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 8, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 155, "passingYards": 1251, "passingTD": 5, "interceptions": 3, "sacks": 8, "completionPct": 65.80599975585938, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 8.071000099182129, "rushAttempts": 73, "rushingYards": 260, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.562000036239624, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": -5, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5150998/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 36, "passingYards": 360, "passingTD": 4, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 8, "completionPct": 58.29999923706055, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 10, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": -26, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": -2, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5150998/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2348" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5222150", "name": "Joshua Brantley", "position": "TE", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/776", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2348", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5222150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2655", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5222150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2348", "status": "available", "games": 1, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 1, "passingYards": 16, "passingTD": 1, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 100, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 16, "rushAttempts": 0, "rushingYards": 0, "rushingTD": 0, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 0, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5222150/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2348", "2655" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Trey Kukuk", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Joshua Brantley", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Joshua Brantley", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_PENDING_CONDITIONAL_RESOLUTION", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Unresolved availability: Trey Kukuk" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2348/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2348/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://sunbeltsports.org/news/2025/8/11/football-availability-report-new.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 17.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401856827", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2305", "side": "away", "player": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 28.083333333333332, 26.75 ], "current_rates": [ 36.0, 17.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 41.083333333333336, 18.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 43.25, 10.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 33.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2305", "side": "away", "player": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "isolated_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19.0, 37.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.0, 37.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2305", "side": "away", "player": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.083333333333332, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401756854", "401752689", "401756899", "401756905", "401756915", "401756921", "401756932", "401756940", "401756943", "401756958", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 17.0, "margin": 19.0, "event_ids": [ "401856769", "401856678", "401856812", "401856807" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 41.083333333333336, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 22.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401756887", "401756895", "401756901", "401756908", "401756922", "401756924", "401756934", "401756942", "401756949", "401756960", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 43.25, "pa": 10.25, "margin": 33.0, "event_ids": [ "401856768", "401856670", "401856801", "401856816" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5083333333333346, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 37.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 37.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2305", "side": "away", "player": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.083333333333332, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401756854", "401752689", "401756899", "401756905", "401756915", "401756921", "401756932", "401756940", "401756943", "401756958", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.0, "pa": 17.0, "margin": 19.0, "event_ids": [ "401856769", "401856678", "401856812", "401856807" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 41.083333333333336, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 22.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401756887", "401756895", "401756901", "401756908", "401756922", "401756924", "401756934", "401756942", "401756949", "401756960", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 43.25, "pa": 10.25, "margin": 33.0, "event_ids": [ "401856768", "401856670", "401856801", "401856816" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5083333333333346, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 37.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 37.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856827", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856827", "teamId": "2305", "team": "Kansas Jayhawks", "side": "away", "opponent": "Utah Utes", "conferenceReportKey": "Kansas", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5079604", "name": "Isaiah Marshall", "position": "QB", "workload": "57/104, 810 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5079604/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5151060", "name": "Cole Ballard", "position": "QB", "workload": "5/7, 96 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5151060/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4918414", "name": "Dylan Edwards", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 296 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/4918414/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079749", "name": "Yasin Willis", "position": "RB", "workload": "27 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5079749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5193112", "name": "Jalen Dupree", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5193112/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4869730", "name": "Nik McMillan", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 256 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/4869730/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5296407", "name": "Nahzae Cox", "position": "WR", "workload": "6 REC, 167 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5296407/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5151868", "name": "Bryson Hayes", "position": "WR", "workload": "5 REC, 106 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5151868/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5142704", "name": "Carson Bruhn", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 55 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5142704/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5151966", "name": "Jailen Butler", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 29 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/athletes/5151966/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Kory Amachree", "id": "5214653", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Yasin Willis", "id": "5079749", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "confirmed qualifying-role scenario", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "27 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 12 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Cole Ballard", "id": "5151060", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "passingLeader", "value": "5/7, 96 YDS" }, { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "1 CAR, 14 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Justin Thurman", "id": null, "position": null, "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Griffin Baker", "id": "5384631", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Carter Moses", "id": "5098591", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Willis 27 carries versus Edwards50, Dupree21, Johnson13 verifies material committee role. Cole Ballard is a reserve with seven attempts, compared with Marshall104; no current starting-QB penalty solely for his OUT designation.", "confirmed": [ "Yasin Willis" ], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [ { "name": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "deduction": -3, "scores": { "Classic": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "Primary": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "TightenUpON": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "TightenUpOFF": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ] } } ], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": -3, "conditionalDeduction": -3, "overlapTreatment": "Willis 27 carries versus Edwards50, Dupree21, Johnson13 verifies material committee role. Cole Ballard is a reserve with seven attempts, compared with Marshall104; no current starting-QB penalty solely for his OUT designation.", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [ { "id": "5079749", "name": "Yasin Willis", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/712", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 35, "rushingYards": 127, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 3.628999948501587, "receptions": 6, "receivingYards": 22, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5079749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "183", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 129, "rushingYards": 558, "rushingTD": 4, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.326000213623047, "receptions": 9, "receivingYards": 42, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5079749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2305", "status": "available", "games": 3, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 27, "rushingYards": 125, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.599999904632568, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 12, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5079749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "183" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "4918414", "name": "Dylan Edwards", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/715", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2306", "status": "available", "games": 11, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 56, "rushingYards": 350, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.25, "receptions": 17, "receivingYards": 106, "receivingTD": 1, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/4918414/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2306", "status": "available", "games": 5, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 34, "rushingYards": 205, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.0289998054504395, "receptions": 3, "receivingYards": 17, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/4918414/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2305", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 50, "rushingYards": 296, "rushingTD": 3, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 5.900000095367432, "receptions": 10, "receivingYards": 98, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/4918414/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2306" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5193112", "name": "Jalen Dupree", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/777", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "36", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 24, "rushingYards": 147, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 6.125, "receptions": 1, "receivingYards": 2, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5193112/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "36", "status": "available", "games": 9, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 102, "rushingYards": 508, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.980000019073486, "receptions": 12, "receivingYards": 83, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5193112/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2305", "status": "available", "games": 4, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 21, "rushingYards": 103, "rushingTD": 2, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.900000095367432, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5193112/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "36" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } }, { "id": "5219487", "name": "Micah Johnson", "position": "RB", "historyRef": "player-histories.json#/players/778", "historyAvailable": true, "seasons": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2305", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2024/types/2/athletes/5219487/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2305", "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero", "games": null, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": null, "passingYards": null, "passingTD": null, "interceptions": null, "sacks": null, "completionPct": null, "yardsPerPassAttempt": null, "rushAttempts": null, "rushingYards": null, "rushingTD": null, "yardsPerRushAttempt": null, "receptions": null, "receivingYards": null, "receivingTD": null, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2025/types/2/athletes/5219487/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "2305", "status": "available", "games": 2, "starts": null, "passingAttempts": 0, "passingYards": 0, "passingTD": 0, "interceptions": 0, "sacks": 0, "completionPct": 0, "yardsPerPassAttempt": 0, "rushAttempts": 13, "rushingYards": 55, "rushingTD": 1, "yardsPerRushAttempt": 4.199999809265137, "receptions": 0, "receivingYards": 0, "receivingTD": 0, "targets": null, "routes": null, "drops": null, "redZoneOpportunities": null, "passProtection": null, "statisticsSource": "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/athletes/5219487/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "familiarity": { "currentTeamRosterVerified": true, "priorTeamIds": [ "2305" ], "limitation": "Year-specific API athlete identity may backfill a current roster. Team IDs are retained source observations, not proof of historical system continuity; official biographies override. Practice/protection-call and coaching relationships are unestimated unless separately documented in team finding." } } ], "offensivePathway": "Replace or redistribute named passing attempts, carries and receiving opportunities; statistical point conversion unestimated. Human -3 is labeled separately.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [ { "player": "Micah Johnson", "year": 2024, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" }, { "player": "Micah Johnson", "year": 2025, "status": "unavailable\u2014not inferred zero" } ] }, "gate": { "outcome": "REPLACEMENT_SCENARIOS_RETAINED_TIER_REQUIRES_OTHER_GATES", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2305/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2305/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Ballard seven attempts versus Marshall104; reserve QB absence does not replace the starter.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856827", "teamId": "254", "team": "Utah Utes", "side": "home", "opponent": "Kansas Jayhawks", "conferenceReportKey": "Utah", "officialReport": { "url": "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx", "posted": "2026-10-09 21:00 America/Chicago", "conference": "B12" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5105849", "name": "Devon Dampier", "position": "QB", "workload": "71/101, 896 YDS, 9 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5105849/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5294263", "name": "Byrd Ficklin", "position": "QB", "workload": "9/17, 166 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5294263/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5173431", "name": "Wayshawn Parker", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 328 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5173431/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5203476", "name": "Daniel Bray", "position": "RB", "workload": "13 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5203476/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5264742", "name": "LaMarcus Bell", "position": "RB", "workload": "8 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5264742/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4869422", "name": "Braden Pegan", "position": "WR", "workload": "17 REC, 264 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/4869422/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4871040", "name": "Creed Whittemore", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 131 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/4871040/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5132652", "name": "Ricky Johnson", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 101 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5132652/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4900351", "name": "Noah Bennee", "position": "TE", "workload": "7 REC, 166 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/4900351/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5148821", "name": "Hunter Andrews", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 34 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/athletes/5148821/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Kana'i Lopes", "id": "5219997", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Utah Utes: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/254/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/254/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://big12sports.com/sports/2025/8/14/FBreporting.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401858486", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.25, 23.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32.0, 18.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.75, 31.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 30.4, 35.0 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 26.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 26.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.25, "pa": 23.416666666666668, "margin": -0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401752813", "401752840", "401752849", "401752859", "401752864", "401752872", "401752882", "401752888", "401752904", "401752909", "401752918" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.0, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 14.0, "event_ids": [ "401858422", "401856677", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 31.833333333333332, "margin": -13.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752819", "401752832", "401752848", "401752861", "401752864", "401752874", "401752884", "401752890", "401752897", "401752902", "401752924" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858435", "401858224", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.151666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.25, "pa": 23.416666666666668, "margin": -0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401752813", "401752840", "401752849", "401752859", "401752864", "401752872", "401752882", "401752888", "401752904", "401752909", "401752918" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.0, "pa": 18.0, "margin": 14.0, "event_ids": [ "401858422", "401856677", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 31.833333333333332, "margin": -13.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752819", "401752832", "401752848", "401752861", "401752864", "401752874", "401752884", "401752890", "401752897", "401752902", "401752924" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 35.0, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858435", "401858224", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.151666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 21.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 21.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401858486", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401858486", "teamId": "135", "team": "Minnesota Golden Gophers", "side": "away", "opponent": "Purdue Boilermakers", "conferenceReportKey": "Minnesota", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5144959", "name": "Drake Lindsey", "position": "QB", "workload": "105/157, 1087 YDS, 8 TD, 4 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5144959/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5150680", "name": "Max Shikenjanski", "position": "QB", "workload": "3/3, 50 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5150680/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5224792", "name": "TJ Thomas", "position": "RB", "workload": "46 CAR, 307 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5224792/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4920901", "name": "Darius Taylor", "position": "RB", "workload": "57 CAR, 139 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/4920901/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5264245", "name": "Xavier Ford", "position": "RB", "workload": "17 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5264245/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5164749", "name": "Noah Jennings", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 345 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5164749/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4831976", "name": "Javon Tracy", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 300 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/4831976/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5144962", "name": "Jalen Smith", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 121 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5144962/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5044424", "name": "Pierce Walsh", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5044424/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5244731", "name": "Roman Voss", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/athletes/5244731/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Michael Merdinger", "id": "5144313", "position": "QB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Donielle Hayes", "id": "5077206", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] }, { "name": "Ryan Estrada", "id": "5244756", "position": "RB", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "rushingLeader", "value": "3 CAR, 10 YDS" }, { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "2 REC, 12 YDS" } ] }, { "name": "Hayden Moore", "id": "5271219", "position": "WR", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [ { "category": "receivingLeader", "value": "3 REC, 49 YDS" } ] } ], "finding": "Minnesota Golden Gophers: current report contains 4 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/135/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/135/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": "Estrada three carries versus Taylor57/Thomas46/Ford17; Moore three catches versus Tracy27/Jennings26/Smith12. No main-role replacement identified.", "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401858486", "teamId": "2509", "team": "Purdue Boilermakers", "side": "home", "opponent": "Minnesota Golden Gophers", "conferenceReportKey": "Purdue", "officialReport": { "url": "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx", "posted": "Friday Report 10/9/26", "conference": "B10" }, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5104738", "name": "Ryan Browne", "position": "QB", "workload": "110/156, 1390 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5104738/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5149006", "name": "Evans Chuba", "position": "QB", "workload": "11/14, 96 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5149006/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5218961", "name": "Fame Ijeboi", "position": "RB", "workload": "86 CAR, 354 YDS, 6 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5218961/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5219089", "name": "Antonio Harris", "position": "RB", "workload": "15 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5219089/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079410", "name": "Jerrick Gibson", "position": "RB", "workload": "18 CAR, 58 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5079410/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "4871062", "name": "Asaad Waseem", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 453 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/4871062/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4808767", "name": "Xavier Townsend", "position": "WR", "workload": "28 REC, 307 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/4808767/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4431647", "name": "Chauncey Magwood", "position": "WR", "workload": "14 REC, 177 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/4431647/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5075912", "name": "George Burhenn", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5075912/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5276670", "name": "Ar'mari Towns", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 26 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/athletes/5276670/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [ { "name": "Kylan Fox", "id": "5079462", "position": "TE", "status": "out", "trigger": "no automatic deduction; workload/role separately reviewed", "workload": [] } ], "finding": "Purdue Boilermakers: current report contains 1 covered-position designations; current passing, rushing, WR and TE leaders are enumerated. None has a confirmed qualifying replacement identified from captured workload evidence. Unlisted is no reported restriction, not a guarantee of availability.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": null, "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "NO_CONFIRMED_COVERED_ROLE_TRIGGER_ON_REPORT", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2509/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/2509/leaders?lang=en®ion=us", "https://bigten.org/sports/2026/9/10/FB_Availability_Reports.aspx" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401868054", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.5, 35.166666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 25.0, 29.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 14, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 29.571428571428573, 26.428571428571427 ], "current_rates": [ 20.666666666666668, 26.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25.0, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.0, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.0, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.0, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.5, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 5.0, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401756849", "401757230", "401760370", "401760374", "401760378", "401760389", "401760394", "401760403", "401760408", "401760418", "401760424" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 24.8, "margin": -7.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401864497", "401864578", "401864510", "401864513" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401756850", "401752688", "401756889", "401756896", "401756902", "401756922", "401756923", "401756929", "401756939", "401756948", "401756956", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 31.75, "margin": 1.5, "event_ids": [ "401856774", "401856683", "401856812", "401856817" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5366666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401856808", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401856808", "teamId": "62", "team": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "side": "away", "opponent": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5101124", "name": "Micah Alejado", "position": "QB", "workload": "132/216, 1361 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5101124/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5211117", "name": "Bjorn Jurgensen", "position": "QB", "workload": "1/4, 7 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5211117/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5079651", "name": "DeVon Rice", "position": "RB", "workload": "59 CAR, 276 YDS, 3 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5079651/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5218869", "name": "Sitani Mikaele", "position": "RB", "workload": "21 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5218869/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4869582", "name": "Cam Barfield", "position": "RB", "workload": "11 CAR, 43 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/4869582/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5085972", "name": "Kainoa Carvalho", "position": "WR", "workload": "22 REC, 249 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5085972/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5218881", "name": "Tama Uiliata", "position": "WR", "workload": "27 REC, 245 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5218881/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4917119", "name": "Devin Alves", "position": "WR", "workload": "7 REC, 167 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/4917119/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4819259", "name": "Devon Tauaefa", "position": "TE", "workload": "6 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/4819259/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5173623", "name": "Frank Abreu", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 31 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/athletes/5173623/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/62/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/62/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401856808", "teamId": "9", "team": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "side": "home", "opponent": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5141378", "name": "Cutter Boley", "position": "QB", "workload": "78/127, 1040 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5141378/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4597499", "name": "Mikey Keene", "position": "QB", "workload": "4/7, 32 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4597499/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5110535", "name": "Kyson Brown", "position": "RB", "workload": "50 CAR, 261 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5110535/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4900771", "name": "Marquis Gillis", "position": "RB", "workload": "17 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4900771/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5079348", "name": "Jason Brown Jr.", "position": "RB", "workload": "9 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5079348/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5031157", "name": "Reed Harris", "position": "WR", "workload": "26 REC, 499 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5031157/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870850", "name": "Omarion Miller", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 234 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4870850/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5164354", "name": "Cory Butler Jr.", "position": "WR", "workload": "4 REC, 37 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5164354/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5141480", "name": "AJ Ia", "position": "TE", "workload": "4 REC, 25 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/5141480/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4917619", "name": "Khamari Anderson", "position": "TE", "workload": "1 REC, 21 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/athletes/4917619/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Arizona State Sun Devils: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Current official conference report omits this nonconference matchup" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/9/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/9/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 18.309234715222154, 34.062045109205975 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } }, { "eventId": "401860901", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.384615384615383, 23.0 ], "current_rates": [ 34.4, 20.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.416666666666668, 20.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 27.8, 16.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25.0, 25.0 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.0, 25.0 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.384615384615383, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 8.384615384615383, "event_ids": [ "401762522", "401760363", "401760372", "401760379", "401757165", "401760387", "401760393", "401760397", "401760402", "401760410", "401760416", "401760422", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.4, "pa": 20.6, "margin": 13.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", "401860885", "401860897", "401860898" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 6.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401760361", "401752937", "401760369", "401760374", "401760383", "401760388", "401760399", "401760402", "401760412", "401760417", "401760423" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 16.4, "margin": 11.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858436", "401860883", "401860888", "401860891", "401860921" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4451282051282043, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.384615384615383, "pa": 23.0, "margin": 8.384615384615383, "event_ids": [ "401762522", "401760363", "401760372", "401760379", "401757165", "401760387", "401760393", "401760397", "401760402", "401760410", "401760416", "401760422", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.4, "pa": 20.6, "margin": 13.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", "401860885", "401860897", "401860898" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 6.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401760361", "401752937", "401760369", "401760374", "401760383", "401760388", "401760399", "401760402", "401760412", "401760417", "401760423" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 16.4, "margin": 11.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858436", "401860883", "401860888", "401860891", "401860921" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4451282051282043, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.0, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.0, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "sourceReview": { "eventId": "401860901", "teams": [ { "eventId": "401860901", "teamId": "68", "team": "Boise State Broncos", "side": "away", "opponent": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "4870513", "name": "Maddux Madsen", "position": "QB", "workload": "87/132, 1058 YDS, 11 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/4870513/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "5146712", "name": "Dylan Riley", "position": "RB", "workload": "108 CAR, 685 YDS, 5 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5146712/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5147379", "name": "Sire Gaines", "position": "RB", "workload": "45 CAR, 234 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5147379/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5124975", "name": "Juelz Goff", "position": "RB", "workload": "13 CAR, 41 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5124975/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5290573", "name": "Rasean Jones", "position": "WR", "workload": "23 REC, 359 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5290573/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5120669", "name": "Akeem Wright", "position": "WR", "workload": "9 REC, 166 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5120669/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4714341", "name": "Ben Ford", "position": "WR", "workload": "8 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/4714341/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "5080888", "name": "Matt Wagner", "position": "TE", "workload": "17 REC, 196 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5080888/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5382290", "name": "Keawe Browne", "position": "TE", "workload": "3 REC, 29 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/athletes/5382290/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Boise State Broncos: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/68/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/68/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } }, { "eventId": "401860901", "teamId": "278", "team": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "side": "home", "opponent": "Boise State Broncos", "conferenceReportKey": null, "officialReport": null, "roles": { "QB": [ { "id": "5010409", "name": "Jayden Mandal", "position": "QB", "workload": "91/137, 1034 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5010409/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5146667", "name": "Khristian Martin", "position": "QB", "workload": "2/2, 12 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5146667/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "RB": [ { "id": "4685445", "name": "Rayshon Luke", "position": "RB", "workload": "42 CAR, 286 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/4685445/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5175334", "name": "Bryson Donelson", "position": "RB", "workload": "48 CAR, 206 YDS, 4 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5175334/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5262650", "name": "Julius Gillick", "position": "RB", "workload": "25 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5262650/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "mainWR": [ { "id": "5092483", "name": "Josiah Freeman", "position": "WR", "workload": "25 REC, 322 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5092483/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5121384", "name": "Ezekiel Avit", "position": "WR", "workload": "13 REC, 234 YDS, 2 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5121384/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "4870923", "name": "Jahlil McClain", "position": "WR", "workload": "12 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/4870923/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ], "receivingTE": [ { "id": "4869294", "name": "Jake Appleget", "position": "TE", "workload": "5 REC, 51 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/4869294/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" }, { "id": "5291743", "name": "Dallas Gaius-Anyaegbu", "position": "TE", "workload": "2 REC, 39 YDS", "source": "http://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/athletes/5291743/statistics/0?lang=en®ion=us" } ] }, "roleReference": "Current regular-season performance leaders establish workload candidates; official depth charts/routes/snap/target shares were not comprehensively available, so main-role eligibility remains subject to the stated review limitations.", "statuses": [], "finding": "Fresno State Bulldogs: current role reference is captured from team roster and 2026 leaders, but current medical availability is unverified. No deduction applied without a qualifying trigger; this is not a healthy finding.", "confirmed": [], "conditional": [], "isolatedScenarios": [], "jointScenario": { "productionDeduction": 0, "conditionalDeduction": 0, "overlapTreatment": "No qualifying confirmed trigger; no headcount multiplication", "overlapSensitivity": null, "adverseCumulativeSensitivity": null }, "forecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalReplacement": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "statisticalIncrementalEffect": null, "statisticalTreatment": "Unestimated; retained registered baseline, not asserted zero true effect", "productionHumanDeduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "opponentAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independently supported scoring conversion" } }, "players": [], "offensivePathway": "No verified covered-role replacement score change.", "defensivePathway": { "effect": null, "applied": 0, "reason": "Offensive availability does not by itself establish an independent opponent scoring adjustment; field-position/turnover/tempo effect unestimated." }, "tradeReview": { "applicable": false, "reason": "College transfers are not professional in-season trades. Historical school changes remain separate; no automatic trade -3." }, "uncertainty": { "missingRoles": [], "unresolvedReportedRoleNames": [], "availabilityGap": "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content", "advancedMetrics": "Starts, routes, targets, verified drops, protection calls and practice familiarity are not comprehensively captured; no fabricated values.", "historyGaps": [] }, "gate": { "outcome": "PASS_AVAILABILITY_UNRESOLVED", "restriction": "No tier promotion from this review. Conditional or missing availability must be resolved or decision must survive every retained scenario under existing gates.", "blockingFacts": [ "Pac-12 official report landing had no usable report content" ], "certificationNote": "This is a selection uncertainty, not a hard arithmetic/package defect by itself. PASS is permitted; absence of a report is not clearance." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/278/roster?season=2026", "https://sports.core.api.espn.com/v2/sports/football/leagues/college-football/seasons/2026/types/2/teams/278/leaders?lang=en®ion=us" ], "materialityReview": { "noAdditionalDeductionReason": null, "additionalCoveredRoleConditions": [] } } ], "combinedForecasts": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "Primary": { "base": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpON": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." }, "TightenUpOFF": { "base": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "productionAdjusted": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditionalAllListedUnavailable": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "scoreOrder": [ "away", "home" ], "note": "Both teams confirmed deductions combined here. Per-team forecasts isolate one team. Additional role-conditional branches retained in each materialityReview." } } } } ], "threeFCSConditionalSource": [ { "eventId": "401868156", "teamId": "3101", "teamName": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "incumbent": "Deacon Hill", "replacement": "Bronson Barben", "role": "QB", "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx", "sourceDate": "2026-10-06", "status": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "trigger": "Hill made his first start in over two seasons Oct3 and departed late in Q2 injured; Barben replaced him. Material restricted/unavailable Hill branch qualifies for the authorized human assumption, not an invented medical OUT.", "history": { "Deacon Hill": { "2024": "Utah Tech: 4 starts in first five team games, 36/75, 412 yards, 2 TD, INT; 10 rushes/5 yards/TD. Rest of season injured.", "2025": "Utah Tech: missed whole season injured; no production.", "2026": "Utah Tech: 14/25, 276 yards, TD, INT; 4 rushes/25 yards. First start Oct3, 9/17 for 226 yards and TD before injury." }, "Bronson Barben": { "2024": "Utah Tech: 4 games/3 starts, 58/114, 574 yards official bio (575 ESPN discrepancy retained), 4 TD, 2 INT; 35 rushes/60 yards.", "2025": "Utah Tech: 10 games/9 starts, 169/288, 1682 yards, 6 TD, 12 INT; 52 rushes/126 yards/TD.", "2026": "Utah Tech: 89/166, 1029 yards, 3 TD, 5 INT; 31 rushes/58 yards/TD. Oct3 relief 11/21,165 yards,TD." } }, "familiarity": "Both have Utah Tech experience since 2024 under Lance Anderson; Barben started nine games in 2025 and several in 2026. Protection-call/practice performance unreported; no unfamiliarity penalty invented.", "opportunityChange": "Potential full-game passing workload for Barben rather than Hill; exact attempt redistribution unestimated.", "offensiveLine": "Official Oct6 preview reports 1.33 sacks allowed/game (tied second Big Sky); no incremental line availability effect established.", "opponentContext": "Portland State coming off bye after Sept26 win; defense/venue already handled by registered team engine.", "doubleCounting": "Base season scoring already mostly reflects Barben and Hill absence. Do not call additional -3 an empirical injury delta or repeat an extra statistical penalty.", "statisticalReplacementAdjustment": null, "statisticalReplacementForecast": "Registered baseline retained as proxy; player-specific conversion unestimated.", "branches": [ { "condition": "Hill fully available in reference starting role", "humanDeduction": 0 }, { "condition": "Hill unavailable/materially limited with Barben replacing reference role", "humanDeduction": -3 } ], "appliedConservativeSensitivity": -3, "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "reviewedUTC": "2026-10-10T10:13:05.267848+00:00", "additionalIndependentAdjustment": 0, "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "jointScenario": "Only one qualifying covered-role scenario identified for this team. Joint scenario equals isolated -3 branch; no stacked QB/WR or injury-headcount deductions.", "gateOutcome": "Pre-price: retain PASS_PENDING_GATES. Parent must evaluate base and both availability branches in each of the four configurations after immutable freeze; any selection failing applicable branch becomes PASS, never opposite-side promotion.", "scoreExpression": "adjusted team points = retained registered baseline - 3.0 in qualifying branch; available branch = baseline. Statistical replacement-specific conversion is unestimated, not proven zero.", "baseAndAdjustedScores": "Parent-owned model means pending; attach by eventId and teamId without changing registered arithmetic.", "advancedUncertainty": [ "routes/targets and verified drops unavailable", "exact game-day snap allocation unconfirmed", "no calibrated player-to-score conversion", "protection-call experience and full practice participation unavailable" ] }, { "eventId": "401868095", "teamId": "2692", "teamName": "Weber State Wildcats", "incumbent": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "role": "WR", "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "sourceDate": "2026-10-06", "status": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "trigger": "Session is a material established receiver (2025 team receiving-yard leader, four TD in 2026) and missed Oct3; continued absence/limitation warrants -3 branch.", "history": { "Marvin Session": { "2024": "Weber State: 9 games,13 catches,127 yards,TD; starts/targets/routes unavailable.", "2025": "Weber State:12 games,32 catches,415 yards,TD; starts/targets/routes unavailable.", "2026": "Weber State:13 catches,273 yards,4 TD; Oct3 absent." }, "Noah Kjar": { "2024": "Weber State:11 games,16 catches,200 yards; 7 KR for250 yards and TD.", "2025": "Weber State:3 games before season-ending injury,3 catches,48 yards,TD.", "2026": "Weber State:38 catches,621 yards,8 TD; Oct3 five catches/79 yards." }, "Tate Kjar": { "2024": "Utah State:redshirt, no college production.", "2025": "Utah State:two appearances; receiving opportunities unavailable in retained feed.", "2026": "Weber State:8 catches,129 yards,2 TD; Oct3 five catches/89 yards/2 TD." } }, "familiarity": "Tate transferred from Utah State before 2026, not an in-season trade. Noah and Tate are head coach Eric Kjar sons; Tate played for him at Corner Canyon. Session has been at Weber since 2022. Existing system/practice familiarity supported without numerical bonus.", "opportunityChange": "Oct3 brothers had10 catches/168 yards/2 TD with Session absent. Exact share of Session targets to each and routes/verified drops unreported; receiver redistribution cannot be multiplied into several -3 deductions.", "offensiveLine": "No separately verified current offensive-line absence or point conversion established.", "opponentContext": "Idaho last played Friday Oct2, an extra calendar recovery day relative Weber Oct3 double-overtime road win; physical load qualitative.", "doubleCounting": "Oct3 absent-Session result already enters form/base. No repeated empirical penalty; human -3 explicitly additional scenario only.", "statisticalReplacementAdjustment": null, "statisticalReplacementForecast": "Registered baseline proxy; player conversion unestimated.", "branches": [ { "condition": "Session fully available", "humanDeduction": 0 }, { "condition": "Session remains absent/materially limited, receiving redistributed", "humanDeduction": -3 } ], "appliedConservativeSensitivity": -3, "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "reviewedUTC": "2026-10-10T10:13:05.267848+00:00", "additionalIndependentAdjustment": 0, "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "jointScenario": "Only one qualifying covered-role scenario identified for this team. Joint scenario equals isolated -3 branch; no stacked QB/WR or injury-headcount deductions.", "gateOutcome": "Pre-price: retain PASS_PENDING_GATES. Parent must evaluate base and both availability branches in each of the four configurations after immutable freeze; any selection failing applicable branch becomes PASS, never opposite-side promotion.", "scoreExpression": "adjusted team points = retained registered baseline - 3.0 in qualifying branch; available branch = baseline. Statistical replacement-specific conversion is unestimated, not proven zero.", "baseAndAdjustedScores": "Parent-owned model means pending; attach by eventId and teamId without changing registered arithmetic.", "advancedUncertainty": [ "routes/targets and verified drops unavailable", "exact game-day snap allocation unconfirmed", "no calibrated player-to-score conversion", "protection-call experience and full practice participation unavailable" ] }, { "eventId": "401867974", "teamId": "2450", "teamName": "Norfolk State Spartans", "incumbent": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "role": "QB", "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "sourceDate": "2026-10-08", "status": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "trigger": "Oct8 official preview: Bailey still nursing shoulder injury; Golmond started last two games. Qualifying material-limitation branch does not falsely state Bailey ruled out.", "history": { "Deljay Bailey": { "2024": "Grambling:7 appearances,39/72,440 yards,0 TD,3 INT;36 rushes/42 yards/2 TD. Starts unavailable.", "2025": "Itawamba CC:157/229,1653 yards,14 TD per Norfolk official bio; game/start count, interceptions and sacks unavailable. JUCO production retained separately, no NCAA conversion.", "2026": "Norfolk State:59/90,539 yards,3 TD,3 INT;43 rushes/111 yards/3 TD;9 sacks. Separate Grambling/JUCO/Norfolk team splits." }, "Da'Jean Golmond": { "2024": "Pre-college; no NCAA production.", "2025": "Denham Springs HS:2544 passing yards/32 TD;477 rushing yards/10 TD per official bio. High-school data contextual only, not converted.", "2026": "Norfolk State freshman:53/87,683 yards,5 TD,INT;19 rushes/125 yards/2 TD;2 sacks. Started last two;371 pass yards at Robert Morris." } }, "familiarity": "Both in Michael Vick current system; Golmond has two recent starts, coach publicly praises poise and teammate belief. No unverified claim of pre-college relationship. Protection-call experience/practice reps unreported.", "opportunityChange": "Golmond lead role with some Bailey action expected; mixed QB snap share unestimated. Full Bailey return is separate branch.", "offensiveLine": "Official preview cites C Tyler Leinberger 200+ snaps and strong pass blocking; score conversion unsupported.", "opponentContext": "Virginia Lynchburg non-DI NCCAA; severe cross-division sample/identity limitations must survive normal gates.", "doubleCounting": "Two Golmond starts already influence baseline; no second statistical injury deduction. Human -3 remains explicit user assumption and may be adverse despite better raw Golmond efficiency.", "statisticalReplacementAdjustment": null, "statisticalReplacementForecast": "Registered baseline proxy; adjusted player-specific score effect unestimated.", "branches": [ { "condition": "Bailey fully recovers to reference role", "humanDeduction": 0 }, { "condition": "Bailey materially limited and Golmond carries replaced role", "humanDeduction": -3 } ], "appliedConservativeSensitivity": -3, "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "reviewedUTC": "2026-10-10T10:13:05.267848+00:00", "additionalIndependentAdjustment": 0, "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "jointScenario": "Only one qualifying covered-role scenario identified for this team. Joint scenario equals isolated -3 branch; no stacked QB/WR or injury-headcount deductions.", "gateOutcome": "Pre-price: retain PASS_PENDING_GATES. Parent must evaluate base and both availability branches in each of the four configurations after immutable freeze; any selection failing applicable branch becomes PASS, never opposite-side promotion.", "scoreExpression": "adjusted team points = retained registered baseline - 3.0 in qualifying branch; available branch = baseline. Statistical replacement-specific conversion is unestimated, not proven zero.", "baseAndAdjustedScores": "Parent-owned model means pending; attach by eventId and teamId without changing registered arithmetic.", "advancedUncertainty": [ "routes/targets and verified drops unavailable", "exact game-day snap allocation unconfirmed", "no calibrated player-to-score conversion", "protection-call experience and full practice participation unavailable" ] } ], "truth": "Human assumption separate from unestimated empirical effect; isolated and joint scenarios retained, both teams combined." }