FRONTPAGE CREW SPORTS · WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2026

Four configurations. Three score engines.

Classic 2.0.0 · Primary 2.0.0 · Tighten Up Conservative ON · Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Website release: PASS

Research, replacement and trade reviews, editorial, static links, assets and responsive browser checks passed. Archive delivery requires every member to pass SHA256 and CRC readback.

Twelve team events have all four numeric forecasts (48 rows). Fifteen MLS matches have no registered score engine; unavailable outputs are explicit in the coverage audit. ON/OFF intentionally share score arithmetic. Probabilities are not calibrated, and agreement is not a betting edge. Only the explicitly named OFF board below assigns published wager tiers.

Published OFF board

Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers — Milwaukee +1.5 (-150)

OFF cushion 1.5401234568 runs, 0.5401234568 after the frozen single one-run workload adverse case. Two adverse medium risks require Free Pick only; no Pick of the Day or Bonus. All three engines support the run-line direction. Unestimated effects remain uncertain; no calibrated probability or stake.

Scope and audit

Current personnel, role changes, weather, trade pathways and replacement branches are retained before the score freeze. Official and conditional availability are distinct. NBA and NHL remain tracking-only. Only the named OFF publication board assigns wager tiers. Classic/Primary retain their registered tied-final exclusion; no coefficients are changed.

MLB: 1 · NCAAF: 2 · NBA: 7 · NHL: 2 · MLS: 15 · NFL: 0 · FCS: 0 · NCAAM: 0 · WNBA: 0 · UFC: 0 · FBS: 2 · UFC cards: 0 · all scope events: 27 · numeric events: 12 · partial numeric events: 0 · numeric model rows: 48 · future events: 27 · elapsed events: 0 · summary text: 27 research events: one MLB postseason game, two FBS football games, seven NBA preseason games, two NHL regular-season games and fifteen MLS matches. NFL, FCS, WNBA, NCAA men's basketball and UFC have no current events. Twelve team events have all four numeric outputs; MLS has no registered score engine.

Frozen 2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00 (6:49 AM ET). Fresh prices requested 2026-10-14T10:50:08.990616+00:00 and completed 2026-10-14T10:50:10.240294+00:00. Research cutoff 2026-10-14T10:40:18.094217+00:00. Prior market exposure is disclosed; this is not a blind trial.

SHA256 5be754be9d02a18cbadf1e70113d2724ad3f4166feed2bfcef01dd65d74109c7 — unchanged. Three independent agents plus parent reconciled seven named desks; desk roles share reviewers. Independent arithmetic reconstruction is retained in the current model audit.

Historical accuracy uses the October 13 prospective cohort with independently verified official finals, separated by sport/stage and base/adjusted branch. This one-day descriptive sample does not calibrate today’s probabilities or activate a sport.

Downloads and full evidence

All four forecasts

Each cell shows away / home, rounded to 0.5 only for display. “Adj” applies the authorized qualifying replacement scenario. Calculations use unrounded means.

27 matchups

SportMatchup / Eastern startClassicPrimaryTighten Up Conservative ONTighten Up Conservative OFFAdjusted winner agreementHome spreadTotal
NCAAFKennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears
7:30 PM ET
27.0 / 24.5
Adj 24.0 / 24.5
23.0 / 28.5
Adj 20.0 / 28.5
29.5 / 23.5
Adj 26.5 / 23.5
29.5 / 23.5
Adj 26.5 / 23.5
No agreement+352.50
NHLMontreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
7:30 PM ET
3.0 / 3.5
Adj 3.0 / 3.5
3.0 / 3.5
Adj 3.0 / 3.5
3.0 / 3.0
Adj 3.0 / 3.0
3.0 / 3.0
Adj 3.0 / 3.0
No agreement-1.56.50
NBABrooklyn Nets at Miami Heat
7:30 PM ET
110.5 / 120.0
Adj 110.5 / 120.0
108.5 / 117.5
Adj 108.5 / 117.5
112.0 / 118.5
Adj 112.0 / 118.5
112.0 / 118.5
Adj 112.0 / 118.5
Miami Heat-7.5232.50
NBACharlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics
7:30 PM ET
110.0 / 114.5
Adj 110.0 / 114.5
106.5 / 112.0
Adj 106.5 / 112.0
111.5 / 113.0
Adj 111.5 / 113.0
111.5 / 113.0
Adj 111.5 / 113.0
Boston Celtics-5.5225.50
MLSOrlando City SC at Toronto FC
7:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.53.50
MLSNew York City FC at Inter Miami CF
7:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-1.53.50
MLSNew England Revolution at FC Cincinnati
7:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.53.50
MLSRed Bull New York at D.C. United
7:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.53.50
MLSAtlanta United FC at CF Montréal
7:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.53.50
MLSCharlotte FC at Columbus Crew
7:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.53.50
NCAAFWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats
8:00 PM ET
28.5 / 25.5
Adj 28.5 / 25.5
24.5 / 27.5
Adj 24.5 / 27.5
30.5 / 24.5
Adj 30.5 / 24.5
30.5 / 24.5
Adj 30.5 / 24.5
No agreement+1.552.50
NBAPhoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
8:00 PM ET
110.5 / 117.0
Adj 110.5 / 117.0
109.0 / 116.0
Adj 109.0 / 116.0
112.0 / 115.5
Adj 112.0 / 115.5
112.0 / 115.5
Adj 112.0 / 115.5
San Antonio Spurs-10.5224.50
NBANew Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks
8:00 PM ET
116.0 / 118.5
Adj 116.0 / 118.5
115.5 / 117.5
Adj 115.5 / 117.5
117.5 / 117.0
Adj 117.5 / 117.0
117.5 / 117.0
Adj 117.5 / 117.0
No agreement-1.5230.50
MLBMilwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
8:00 PM ET
4.5 / 4.5
Adj 4.5 / 4.5
3.5 / 3.5
Adj 3.5 / 3.5
4.5 / 4.5
Adj 4.5 / 4.5
4.5 / 4.5
Adj 4.5 / 4.5
No agreement-1.57.50
NBAChicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks
8:00 PM ET
115.0 / 117.5
Adj 115.0 / 117.5
114.5 / 116.0
Adj 114.5 / 116.0
116.5 / 116.0
Adj 116.5 / 116.0
116.5 / 116.0
Adj 116.5 / 116.0
No agreement+1.5231.50
NBADetroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves
8:00 PM ET
114.5 / 115.5
Adj 114.5 / 115.5
113.0 / 112.5
Adj 113.0 / 112.5
116.0 / 114.0
Adj 116.0 / 114.0
116.0 / 114.0
Adj 116.0 / 114.0
No agreement+1.5227.50
NHLDallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche
8:30 PM ET
3.0 / 3.5
Adj 3.0 / 3.5
3.0 / 3.5
Adj 3.0 / 3.5
3.0 / 3.0
Adj 3.0 / 3.0
3.0 / 3.0
Adj 3.0 / 3.0
Colorado Avalanche-1.55.50
MLSSporting Kansas City at Nashville SC
8:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-1.53.50
MLSSeattle Sounders FC at FC Dallas
8:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.53.50
MLSVancouver Whitecaps at St. Louis CITY SC
8:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.53.50
MLSPhiladelphia Union at Chicago Fire FC
8:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement+0.53.50
MLSSan Jose Earthquakes at Real Salt Lake
9:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.53.50
MLSMinnesota United FC at Colorado Rapids
9:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.52.50
NBADenver Nuggets at LA Clippers
10:30 PM ET
116.0 / 117.0
Adj 116.0 / 117.0
114.5 / 115.0
Adj 114.5 / 115.0
117.5 / 115.5
Adj 117.5 / 115.5
117.5 / 115.5
Adj 117.5 / 115.5
No agreement+2.5223.50
MLSHouston Dynamo FC at San Diego FC
10:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.52.50
MLSAustin FC at LAFC
10:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-1.53.50
MLSPortland Timbers at LA Galaxy
10:30 PM ET
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
Engine unavailable
Adj Engine unavailable
No agreement-0.53.50

All-four agreement

Base → adjusted counts. Four configurations share three engines; combinations are within-game directional agreement, not a parlay recommendation. Spread/total numbers are single-provider quotes where labeled, not a broad market consensus.

winner: 4 → 4spread: 6 → 6total: 7 → 8winner + spread: 2 → 2winner + total: 4 → 4spread + total: 4 → 4winner + spread + total: 2 → 2
Winner — 4 adjusted agreements
Spread — 6 adjusted agreements
Total — 8 adjusted agreements
Winner + Spread — 2 adjusted agreements
Winner + Total — 4 adjusted agreements
Spread + Total — 4 adjusted agreements
Winner + Spread + Total — 2 adjusted agreements
EventHome lineTotalwinnerspreadtotalwinner + spreadwinner + totalspread + totalwinner + spread + total
Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears+352.50——Yes————
Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals-1.56.50—YesYes——Yes—
Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat-7.5232.50Yes—Yes—Yes——
Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics-5.5225.50Yes—Yes—Yes——
Orlando City SC at Toronto FC-0.53.50———————
New York City FC at Inter Miami CF-1.53.50———————
New England Revolution at FC Cincinnati-0.53.50———————
Red Bull New York at D.C. United-0.53.50———————
Atlanta United FC at CF Montréal-0.53.50———————
Charlotte FC at Columbus Crew-0.53.50———————
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats+1.552.50———————
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs-10.5224.50YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks-1.5230.50——Yes————
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers-1.57.50—Yes—————
Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks+1.5231.50—Yes—————
Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves+1.5227.50———————
Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche-1.55.50YesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Sporting Kansas City at Nashville SC-1.53.50———————
Seattle Sounders FC at FC Dallas-0.53.50———————
Vancouver Whitecaps at St. Louis CITY SC-0.53.50———————
Philadelphia Union at Chicago Fire FC+0.53.50———————
San Jose Earthquakes at Real Salt Lake-0.53.50———————
Minnesota United FC at Colorado Rapids-0.52.50———————
Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers+2.5223.50—YesYes——Yes—
Houston Dynamo FC at San Diego FC-0.52.50———————
Austin FC at LAFC-1.53.50———————
Portland Timbers at LA Galaxy-0.53.50———————

Game-by-game evidence

Expand a matchup for all model confidence fields, paired prices, seven desks, availability branches and gate reasoning.

NCAAF · Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Kennesaw State Owls · Home: Missouri State Bears · Robert W. Plaster Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic27.0 / 24.5
Adjusted 24.0 / 24.5
Missouri State Bears
Home margin 0.39
Total 48.78
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 3.39
Total: LEAN
Difference -3.72
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Primary23.0 / 28.5
Adjusted 20.0 / 28.5
Missouri State Bears
Home margin 8.82
Total 48.57
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 11.82
Total: LEAN
Difference -3.93
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/2; 95% Wilson 34.2–100.0%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON29.5 / 23.5
Adjusted 26.5 / 23.5
Kennesaw State Owls
Home margin -3.02
Total 50.14
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -0.02
Total: LEAN
Difference -2.36
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF29.5 / 23.5
Adjusted 26.5 / 23.5
Kennesaw State Owls
Home margin -3.02
Total 50.14
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -0.02
Total: LEAN
Difference -2.36
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings-162 / +136-3 (-112) / +3 (-108)52.50 — O -105 / U -115Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.260805+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Kennesaw State Owls: Zion Booker OUT / season-ending confirmed; Booker established slot20catches/161 loses remaining-season opportunities; Munroe moved slot and Gary entered starting lineup Oct7, with Dean/Rogers rotation. Bullock prior primaryTE832/884TEsnaps; if still limited, Jesiolowski/Harrold cover TE routes/blocking. No exact future target-share forecast available.; Gerard Bullock Jr. UNRESOLVED / conditional continued absence; Booker established slot20catches/161 loses remaining-season opportunities; Munroe moved slot and Gary entered starting lineup Oct7, with Dean/Rogers rotation. Bullock prior primaryTE832/884TEsnaps; if still limited, Jesiolowski/Harrold cover TE routes/blocking. No exact future target-share forecast available. Missouri State Bears: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 13 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2916 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 13 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2916 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.

Gideon Marsh

Registered baseline unchanged; ON/OFF identical; human overlay separated from unestimated statistical changes; overlap explicit.

ConstitutionOwl

Robert W. Plaster Stadium; listed 2026-10-14T23:30Z. Official current game notes and NCAA full weekly query corroborate matchup. KSU7days / MissouriState6days between starts; host returns from Kentucky and visitor travels west one time zone. Official host actual kickoff7:32PMET versus schedule7:30PMET. Personnel scenarios in football-replacement-ledger.json; no final active certification.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:39:17.935708+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T09:51:07+00:00; periods: number: 14; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T18:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 74; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 36; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 21.666666666666668; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 90; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra,40?size=small; shortForecast: Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 74; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 25; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 21.11111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 87; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: NE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_sct,30?size=small; shortForecast: Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 73; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 27; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 21.11111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 90; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: NE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_sct,30?size=small; shortForecast: Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 71; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 23; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 20.555555555555557; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_sct,20?size=small; shortForecast: Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 71; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 22; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 20.555555555555557; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small; shortForecast: Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401871054",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871054",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.992619+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.260805+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": -3.0,
    "home_line": 3.0,
    "pick": "Kennesaw State Owls -3",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 0.0224999999999973,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -2.9775000000000027,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.9775000000000027,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003,
    "base_score": [
      29.581923076923076,
      23.55942307692308
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      26.581923076923076,
      23.55942307692308
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          26.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": 0.0224999999999973,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.0224999999999973,
        "adverse_score": [
          26.581923076923076,
          26.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.9775000000000027
      },
      {
        "branch": "statistical baseline comparator",
        "score": [
          29.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": 3.0224999999999973,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.0224999999999973,
        "adverse_score": [
          29.581923076923076,
          26.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.0224999999999973
      },
      {
        "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity",
        "score": [
          23.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": -2.9775000000000027,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027,
        "adverse_score": [
          23.581923076923076,
          26.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "KSU mainWR out, primaryTE unresolved",
        "detail": "Booker season-ending loss confirmed. Bullock prior3misses; current return not certified. Review production-3 plus baseline and possible separate-loss-6 sensitivity with ordinary gates.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress",
        "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual Bullock TE availability remains unresolved; Booker season-ending OUT remains established."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -5.977500000000003,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity",
        "score": [
          23.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": -2.9775000000000027,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027,
        "adverse_score": [
          23.581923076923076,
          26.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            26.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": 0.0224999999999973,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.0224999999999973,
          "adverse_score": [
            26.581923076923076,
            26.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.9775000000000027
        },
        {
          "branch": "statistical baseline comparator",
          "score": [
            29.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": 3.0224999999999973,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.0224999999999973,
          "adverse_score": [
            29.581923076923076,
            26.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.0224999999999973
        },
        {
          "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity",
          "score": [
            23.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": -2.9775000000000027,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.581923076923076,
            26.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        23.581923076923076,
        23.55942307692308
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        29.581923076923076,
        23.55942307692308
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 47.14134615384616,
      "under_selection_total": 53.14134615384616
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401871054",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871054",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.992619+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.260805+00:00",
    "selection_side": "under",
    "line": 52.5,
    "home_line": 3.0,
    "pick": "Under 52.5",
    "price": -115.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 2.3586538461538424,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -0.6413461538461576,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.6413461538461576,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576,
    "base_score": [
      29.581923076923076,
      23.55942307692308
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      26.581923076923076,
      23.55942307692308
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          26.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": 2.3586538461538424,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3586538461538424,
        "adverse_score": [
          29.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
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        "stressed_buffer": -0.6413461538461576
      },
      {
        "branch": "statistical baseline comparator",
        "score": [
          29.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
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        "buffer": -0.6413461538461576,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576,
        "adverse_score": [
          32.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576
      },
      {
        "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity",
        "score": [
          23.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": 5.358653846153842,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.358653846153842,
        "adverse_score": [
          26.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 2.3586538461538424
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "KSU mainWR out, primaryTE unresolved",
        "detail": "Booker season-ending loss confirmed. Bullock prior3misses; current return not certified. Review production-3 plus baseline and possible separate-loss-6 sensitivity with ordinary gates.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress",
        "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual Bullock TE availability remains unresolved; Booker season-ending OUT remains established."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -3.6413461538461576,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "statistical baseline comparator",
        "score": [
          29.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": -0.6413461538461576,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576,
        "adverse_score": [
          32.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            26.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": 2.3586538461538424,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3586538461538424,
          "adverse_score": [
            29.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.6413461538461576
        },
        {
          "branch": "statistical baseline comparator",
          "score": [
            29.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": -0.6413461538461576,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576,
          "adverse_score": [
            32.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576
        },
        {
          "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity",
          "score": [
            23.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": 5.358653846153842,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.358653846153842,
          "adverse_score": [
            26.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.3586538461538424
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        23.581923076923076,
        23.55942307692308
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        29.581923076923076,
        23.55942307692308
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 47.14134615384616,
      "under_selection_total": 53.14134615384616
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401871054",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871054",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.992619+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.260805+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": -3.0,
    "home_line": 3.0,
    "pick": "Kennesaw State Owls -3",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 0.0224999999999973,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -2.9775000000000027,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.9775000000000027,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003,
    "base_score": [
      29.581923076923076,
      23.55942307692308
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      26.581923076923076,
      23.55942307692308
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          26.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
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        "buffer": 0.0224999999999973,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.0224999999999973,
        "adverse_score": [
          26.581923076923076,
          26.55942307692308
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        "stressed_buffer": -2.9775000000000027
      },
      {
        "branch": "statistical baseline comparator",
        "score": [
          29.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
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        "buffer": 3.0224999999999973,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.0224999999999973,
        "adverse_score": [
          29.581923076923076,
          26.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.0224999999999973
      },
      {
        "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity",
        "score": [
          23.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": -2.9775000000000027,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027,
        "adverse_score": [
          23.581923076923076,
          26.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "KSU mainWR out, primaryTE unresolved",
        "detail": "Booker season-ending loss confirmed. Bullock prior3misses; current return not certified. Review production-3 plus baseline and possible separate-loss-6 sensitivity with ordinary gates.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress",
        "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual Bullock TE availability remains unresolved; Booker season-ending OUT remains established."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -5.977500000000003,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity",
        "score": [
          23.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": -2.9775000000000027,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027,
        "adverse_score": [
          23.581923076923076,
          26.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            26.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": 0.0224999999999973,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.0224999999999973,
          "adverse_score": [
            26.581923076923076,
            26.55942307692308
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          "stressed_buffer": -2.9775000000000027
        },
        {
          "branch": "statistical baseline comparator",
          "score": [
            29.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": 3.0224999999999973,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.0224999999999973,
          "adverse_score": [
            29.581923076923076,
            26.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.0224999999999973
        },
        {
          "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity",
          "score": [
            23.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": -2.9775000000000027,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.581923076923076,
            26.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        23.581923076923076,
        23.55942307692308
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        29.581923076923076,
        23.55942307692308
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 47.14134615384616,
      "under_selection_total": 53.14134615384616
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401871054",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871054",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.992619+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.260805+00:00",
    "selection_side": "under",
    "line": 52.5,
    "home_line": 3.0,
    "pick": "Under 52.5",
    "price": -115.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 2.3586538461538424,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -0.6413461538461576,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.6413461538461576,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576,
    "base_score": [
      29.581923076923076,
      23.55942307692308
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      26.581923076923076,
      23.55942307692308
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          26.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": 2.3586538461538424,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3586538461538424,
        "adverse_score": [
          29.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.6413461538461576
      },
      {
        "branch": "statistical baseline comparator",
        "score": [
          29.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": -0.6413461538461576,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576,
        "adverse_score": [
          32.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576
      },
      {
        "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity",
        "score": [
          23.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": 5.358653846153842,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.358653846153842,
        "adverse_score": [
          26.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 2.3586538461538424
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "KSU mainWR out, primaryTE unresolved",
        "detail": "Booker season-ending loss confirmed. Bullock prior3misses; current return not certified. Review production-3 plus baseline and possible separate-loss-6 sensitivity with ordinary gates.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress",
        "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual Bullock TE availability remains unresolved; Booker season-ending OUT remains established."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -3.6413461538461576,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "statistical baseline comparator",
        "score": [
          29.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "buffer": -0.6413461538461576,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576,
        "adverse_score": [
          32.581923076923076,
          23.55942307692308
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            26.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": 2.3586538461538424,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3586538461538424,
          "adverse_score": [
            29.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.6413461538461576
        },
        {
          "branch": "statistical baseline comparator",
          "score": [
            29.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": -0.6413461538461576,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576,
          "adverse_score": [
            32.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576
        },
        {
          "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity",
          "score": [
            23.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "buffer": 5.358653846153842,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.358653846153842,
          "adverse_score": [
            26.581923076923076,
            23.55942307692308
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.3586538461538424
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        23.581923076923076,
        23.55942307692308
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        29.581923076923076,
        23.55942307692308
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 47.14134615384616,
      "under_selection_total": 53.14134615384616
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

Classic

Conditional joint 24.0 / 24.5

  • Zion Booker: OUT / season-ending confirmed; isolated 24.0 / 24.5; other team production 24.0 / 24.5
  • Gerard Bullock Jr.: UNRESOLVED / conditional continued absence; isolated 24.0 / 24.5; other team production 24.0 / 24.5

Primary

Conditional joint 20.0 / 28.5

  • Zion Booker: OUT / season-ending confirmed; isolated 20.0 / 28.5; other team production 20.0 / 28.5
  • Gerard Bullock Jr.: UNRESOLVED / conditional continued absence; isolated 20.0 / 28.5; other team production 20.0 / 28.5

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 26.5 / 23.5

  • Zion Booker: OUT / season-ending confirmed; isolated 26.5 / 23.5; other team production 26.5 / 23.5
  • Gerard Bullock Jr.: UNRESOLVED / conditional continued absence; isolated 26.5 / 23.5; other team production 26.5 / 23.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 26.5 / 23.5

  • Zion Booker: OUT / season-ending confirmed; isolated 26.5 / 23.5; other team production 26.5 / 23.5
  • Gerard Bullock Jr.: UNRESOLVED / conditional continued absence; isolated 26.5 / 23.5; other team production 26.5 / 23.5
Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Montreal Canadiens · Home: Washington Capitals · Capital One Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic3.0 / 3.5
Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5
Washington Capitals
Home margin 0.24
Total 6.41
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.26
Total: LEAN
Difference -0.09
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 9/16; 95% Wilson 33.2–76.9%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Primary3.0 / 3.5
Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5
Washington Capitals
Home margin 0.22
Total 6.33
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.28
Total: LEAN
Difference -0.17
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 8/16; 95% Wilson 28.0–72.0%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON3.0 / 3.0
Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0
Montreal Canadiens
Home margin -0.03
Total 6.27
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.53
Total: LEAN
Difference -0.23
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 7/16; 95% Wilson 23.1–66.8%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF3.0 / 3.0
Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0
Montreal Canadiens
Home margin -0.03
Total 6.27
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.53
Total: LEAN
Difference -0.23
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 7/16; 95% Wilson 23.1–66.8%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+110 / -130+1.5 (-225) / -1.5 (+185)6.50 — O -115 / U -105Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.315095+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

MTL: Matheson day-to-day missed October13; Engstrom/Xhekaj actual defense depth and Hutson/Dobson PP roles retained. Demidov/Kapanen prior absences remain in observed redistribution. Struble October9 trade reviewed for Montreal and Nashville; cannot count sending-player absence twice. WSH: Dubois illness missed road trip; current actual Jenner/Protas/Strome center opportunities retained. Home return conditional, no current clearance. Roy IR and Sandin LTIR; Holl actual deployment now observed. Tuch played October13 so old maintenance is not confirmed absence.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2857 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Capital One Arena; listed 2026-10-14T23:30Z. Official regular-season gameType2 matched. Both clubs played Oct13; back-to-back travel/goalie uncertainty retained.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Brooklyn Nets · Home: Miami Heat · Kaseya Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic110.5 / 120.0
Adjusted 110.5 / 120.0
Miami Heat
Home margin 9.16
Total 230.62
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 1.66
Total: LEAN
Difference -1.88
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 4/5; 95% Wilson 37.6–96.4%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Primary108.5 / 117.5
Adjusted 108.5 / 117.5
Miami Heat
Home margin 8.83
Total 225.75
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 1.33
Total: LEAN
Difference -6.75
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON112.0 / 118.5
Adjusted 112.0 / 118.5
Miami Heat
Home margin 6.16
Total 230.62
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.34
Total: LEAN
Difference -1.88
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF112.0 / 118.5
Adjusted 112.0 / 118.5
Miami Heat
Home margin 6.16
Total 230.62
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.34
Total: LEAN
Difference -1.88
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+250 / -310+7.5 (-105) / -7.5 (-115)232.50 — O -105 / U -115Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.326436+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Miami Heat: Larsson doubtful with lingering headaches per October13 update; prior25-minute actual role requires exclusion branch. Latest reserve-heavy reference omits Adebayo/Antetokounmpo/Mitchell/Thompson/Wiggins; prior actual regular-led rotations retained as return branches. No DTD promoted to confirmed absence. Brooklyn Nets: Sharpe returned from shoulder issue for21minutes October12; use actual participation over old injury flag. Randle/Porter/Demin first-unit and Clowney reserve creation retained. Brown/Jefferson unresolved; Brown/Dainja waived removed from alternatives.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2791 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Kaseya Center; listed 2026-10-14T23:30Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 14 vs BKN 7:30 pm ET Kaseya Center Preseason. Preseason rotations/minutes uncertainty; no activation.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Charlotte Hornets · Home: Boston Celtics · TD Garden. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic110.0 / 114.5
Adjusted 110.0 / 114.5
Boston Celtics
Home margin 4.43
Total 224.60
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.07
Total: LEAN
Difference -0.90
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 4/5; 95% Wilson 37.6–96.4%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Primary106.5 / 112.0
Adjusted 106.5 / 112.0
Boston Celtics
Home margin 5.89
Total 218.60
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 0.39
Total: LEAN
Difference -6.90
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON111.5 / 113.0
Adjusted 111.5 / 113.0
Boston Celtics
Home margin 1.43
Total 224.60
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -4.07
Total: LEAN
Difference -0.90
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF111.5 / 113.0
Adjusted 111.5 / 113.0
Boston Celtics
Home margin 1.43
Total 224.60
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -4.07
Total: LEAN
Difference -0.90
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+210 / -258+5.5 (-108) / -5.5 (-112)225.50 — O -108 / U -112Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.252437+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Boston Celtics: Tatum/George/White latest first unit, Pritchard26-year role remains substantial off bench; Carter illness and Harper shoulder separate from coach DNPs. Garza played then DTD: conditional absence branch, no assumed OUT. Charlotte Hornets: Schroder/Miller/McNeeley/Reid/Diabate latest reference, Sion James and Connaughton reserve guards. Allen/Anderson/Boswell/Knueppel/White/Grant Williams absent or uncertain; no hypothetical full-healthy reference. Hield/Dillingham/Nembhard trade/current-membership distinctions retained.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2791 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

TD Garden; listed 2026-10-14T23:30Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 14 vs CHA 7:30 pm ET TD Garden Preseason. Preseason rotations/minutes uncertainty; no activation.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Orlando City SC at Toronto FC · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Orlando City SC · Home: Toronto FC · BMO Field. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+170 / +125
Draw +270
+0.5 (-170) / -0.5 (+120)3.50 — O -105 / U -120Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.265805+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Orlando City SC: Marco Pašalić (out), Tyrese Spicer (out), Griffin Dorsey (questionable), Braian Ojeda (questionable). Toronto FC: Jonathan Osorio (out), Nelson Palacio (out), Walker Zimmerman (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

BMO Field; 2026-10-14T23:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:18.110752+00:00; forecast_excerpt: Detailed Forecast Forecast issued : 5:00 AM EDT Wednesday 14 October 2026 Date Detailed Forecast Today Cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers this morning. Wind northwest 20 km/h. High 17. UV index 2 or low. Tonight Cloudy. Wind northwest 20 km/h becoming northeast 20 after midnight. Low 6. Thu , 15 Oct Cloudy. Wind east 20 km/h. High 13. UV index 3 or moderate. Night Periods of rain. Low 10. Fri , 16 Oct Showers. High 14. Night Cloudy periods with 40 percent chance of showers. Windy. Low plus 1. Sat , 17 Oct Sunny. High 9. Night Clear. Low plus 2. Sun , 18 Oct Sunny. High 14. Night Cloudy periods. Low 7. Mon , 19 Oct A mix of sun and cloud. High 16. Night Cloudy periods. Low 8. Tue , 20 Oct A mix of sun and cloud. High 15. Normals Max 14 ° C . Min 6 ° C . Sunrise 7:30 EDT Sunset 18:36 EDT Detailed Forecast Forecast issued : 5:00 AM EDT Wednesday 14 October 2026 Today 17° C Cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers this morning. Wind northwest 20 km/h. High 17. UV index 2 or low. Tonight 6° C Cloudy. Wind northwest 20 km/h becoming northeast 20 after midnight. Low 6. Thu , 15 Oct 13° C Clou; interpretation: Official ECCC daily/tonight forecast, not precise stadium hourly measurement. No numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · New York City FC at Inter Miami CF · 7:30 PM ET

Away: New York City FC · Home: Inter Miami CF · Nu Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+390 / -195
Draw +370
+1.5 (-170) / -1.5 (+125)3.50 — O -115 / U -110Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.296412+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

New York City FC: Drew Baiera (out), Arnau Farnós (out), Maxi Moralez (out), Keaton Parks (out), Kai Trewin (out). Inter Miami CF: Tadeo Allende (out), Yannick Bright (out), Mateo Silvetti (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Nu Stadium; 2026-10-14T23:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:19.357058+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T08:41:24+00:00; periods: number: 14; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 83; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 20; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 24.444444444444443; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 80; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: NE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 82; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 22; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 23.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 79; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 81; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 25; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 24.444444444444443; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 85; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,30?size=small; shortForecast: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 81; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 25; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 24.444444444444443; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 85; windSpeed: 8 mph; windDirection: E; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,30?size=small; shortForecast: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · New England Revolution at FC Cincinnati · 7:30 PM ET

Away: New England Revolution · Home: FC Cincinnati · TQL Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+300 / -150
Draw +330
+0.5 (+110) / -0.5 (-155)3.50 — O -115 / U -110Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.477415+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

New England Revolution: Leo Campana (out), Mamadou Fofana (out), Jack Harrison (out), Alhassan Yusuf (out). FC Cincinnati: José Martínez (out), Miles Robinson (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

TQL Stadium; 2026-10-14T23:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:19.420658+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T08:00:29+00:00; periods: number: 14; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 76; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 51; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 22.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 90; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra,50?size=small; shortForecast: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 74; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 72; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 22.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 2 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra,70?size=small; shortForecast: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 73; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 66; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 22.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 97; windSpeed: 2 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra,70?size=small; shortForecast: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 71; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 50; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 21.666666666666668; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 100; windSpeed: 2 mph; windDirection: NE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra,50?size=small; shortForecast: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Red Bull New York at D.C. United · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Red Bull New York · Home: D.C. United · Audi Field. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+215 / +100
Draw +280
+0.5 (-130) / -0.5 (-105)3.50 — O +120 / U -150Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.518840+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Red Bull New York: no listed absences. D.C. United: Hosei Kijima (out), Louis Munteanu (out), Gabe Segal (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Audi Field; 2026-10-14T23:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:19.298073+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T08:53:04+00:00; periods: number: 14; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 82; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 11; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 20; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 63; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: W; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 78; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 26; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 20.555555555555557; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 74; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: NW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,30?size=small; shortForecast: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 77; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 24; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 20.555555555555557; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 76; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 75; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 20; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 20.555555555555557; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 82; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Atlanta United FC at CF Montréal · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Atlanta United FC · Home: CF Montréal · Stade Saputo. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+170 / +130
Draw +260
+0.5 (-170) / -0.5 (+120)3.50 — O +140 / U -175Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.492997+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Atlanta United FC: Tomas Jacob (out), Will Reilly (out). CF Montréal: Brayan Ceballos (out), Thomas Gillier (out), Bode Hidalgo (out), Brayan Vera (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Stade Saputo; 2026-10-14T23:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:17.805507+00:00; forecast_excerpt: Detailed Forecast Forecast issued : 5:00 AM EDT Wednesday 14 October 2026 Date Detailed Forecast Today Periods of drizzle ending near noon then mainly cloudy. Fog patches dissipating early this morning. Wind north 20 km/h becoming west 20 this morning. High 14. UV index 3 or moderate. Tonight Mainly cloudy. Clearing before morning. Wind northwest 20 km/h. Low plus 5. Thu , 15 Oct Mainly sunny. High 12. UV index 4 or moderate. Night Cloudy. Low plus 5. Fri , 16 Oct Rain. High 9. Night Periods of rain. Low plus 2. Sat , 17 Oct Sunny. High 7. Night Clear. Low plus 1. Sun , 18 Oct Sunny. High 9. Night Clear. Low plus 4. Mon , 19 Oct Sunny. High 16. Night Clear. Low 6. Tue , 20 Oct Sunny. High 15. Normals Max 12 ° C . Min 3 ° C . Sunrise 7:09 EDT Sunset 18:11 EDT Detailed Forecast Forecast issued : 5:00 AM EDT Wednesday 14 October 2026 Today 14° C Periods of drizzle ending near noon then mainly cloudy. Fog patches dissipating early this morning. Wind north 20 km/h becoming west 20 this morning. High 14. UV index 3 or moderate. Tonight 5° C Mainly cloudy. Clearing before morning. Wind nort; interpretation: Official ECCC daily/tonight forecast, not precise stadium hourly measurement. No numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Charlotte FC at Columbus Crew · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Charlotte FC · Home: Columbus Crew · ScottsMiracle-Gro Field. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+230 / -105
Draw +285
+0.5 (-125) / -0.5 (-115)3.50 — O +110 / U -140Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.538395+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Charlotte FC: Nimfasha Berchimas (out), Archie Goodwin (out), Aron John (out). Columbus Crew: Wessam Abou Ali (out), Rudy Camacho (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

ScottsMiracle-Gro Field; 2026-10-14T23:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:19.350730+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T08:00:29+00:00; periods: number: 14; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 74; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 64; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 19.444444444444443; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 79; windSpeed: 8 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra,60?size=small; shortForecast: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely; detailedForecast: ; number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 71; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 45; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 84; windSpeed: 8 mph; windDirection: NE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,50?size=small; shortForecast: Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 69; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 31; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 90; windSpeed: 8 mph; windDirection: NE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,30?size=small; shortForecast: Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-04:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 25; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 90; windSpeed: 8 mph; windDirection: NE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,30?size=small; shortForecast: Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NCAAF · Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers · Home: Sam Houston Bearkats · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic28.5 / 25.5
Adjusted 28.5 / 25.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Home margin -3.08
Total 53.92
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.58
Total: LEAN
Difference 1.42
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Primary24.5 / 27.5
Adjusted 24.5 / 27.5
Sam Houston Bearkats
Home margin 2.94
Total 52.18
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 4.44
Total: LEAN
Difference -0.32
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/2; 95% Wilson 34.2–100.0%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON30.5 / 24.5
Adjusted 30.5 / 24.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Home margin -6.07
Total 55.27
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -4.57
Total: LEAN
Difference 2.77
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF30.5 / 24.5
Adjusted 30.5 / 24.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Home margin -6.07
Total 55.27
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -4.57
Total: LEAN
Difference 2.77
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings-125 / +105-1.5 (-115) / +1.5 (-105)52.50 — O -112 / U -108Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.535836+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger. Sam Houston Bearkats: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2916 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2916 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.

Gideon Marsh

Registered baseline unchanged; ON/OFF identical; human overlay separated from unestimated statistical changes; overlap explicit.

ConstitutionOwl

Elliott T. Bowers Stadium; listed 2026-10-15T00:00Z. Official current game notes and NCAA full weekly query corroborate matchup. WKU/Sam both6days between starts; Sam returns from Liberty; WKU travels to Huntsville. Broadcast upgraded to ESPN; kickoff8PMET unchanged. Personnel scenarios in football-replacement-ledger.json; no final active certification.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:39:18.047172+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T06:21:38+00:00; periods: number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 82; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 5; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 19.444444444444443; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 61; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 79; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 5; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 19.444444444444443; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 67; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 77; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 5; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 19.444444444444443; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 71; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 75; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 20; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 79; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: S; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401871068",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871068",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.321114+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.535836+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": -1.5,
    "home_line": 1.5,
    "pick": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -1.5",
    "price": -115.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 4.567500000000006,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.567500000000006,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.567500000000006,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006,
    "base_score": [
      30.669166666666673,
      24.601666666666667
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      30.669166666666673,
      24.601666666666667
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 4.567500000000006,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          27.601666666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "QB choices and college final availability",
        "detail": "Current official covered-role review establishes no unavailable starter. QB OR/rotations and Sam freshmanOL are documented context, not fabricated injury severity. Final availability report pending standard pregame timing.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Winner-flipping opponent-adjusted baseline and conservative opponent offense",
        "detail": "Primary frozen score favors SamHouston2.9393; TU current matchup opponent28.9833 and Primary opponent27.5607 undermine TUWKUfavorite cushion. No evidence resolves opposing capability estimates. This is supported event-specific model/input disagreement, not a blanket unanimity requirement.",
        "markets": [
          "spread"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "source": "score-freeze.json game401871068 models Primary/Classic/TightenUp inputs",
        "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections5 and7; high risk could flip winner/crossline/erase more than halfedge and favorite must survive conservative opponentoffense.",
        "adverse_cases": [
          {
            "name": "Frozen Primary complete independent score",
            "score": [
              24.621401890076257,
              27.560700017971044
            ],
            "buffer": -4.439298127894787,
            "purpose": "Preprice independently fitted opponent-adjusted baseline projects opposite winner; not a new score.",
            "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
            "stressed_buffer": -7.439298127894787,
            "edge_erased_vs_TU": 9.006798127894793,
            "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
          },
          {
            "name": "Frozen Primary opponent offense, TU own offense held fixed",
            "score": [
              30.669166666666673,
              27.560700017971044
            ],
            "buffer": 1.6084666486956287,
            "purpose": "Conservative opponent-offense gate diagnostic; no fifth forecast or model averaging.",
            "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
            "stressed_buffer": -1.3915333513043713,
            "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9590333513043774,
            "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
          },
          {
            "name": "Frozen TU current-season opponent matchup component, TU own offense held fixed",
            "score": [
              30.669166666666673,
              28.983333333333334
            ],
            "buffer": 0.1858333333333384,
            "purpose": "Existing current capability input supports higher SamHouston offense than prior-weighted baseline. Adverse case, not replacement of registered mean.",
            "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
            "stressed_buffer": -2.8141666666666616,
            "edge_erased_vs_TU": 4.381666666666668,
            "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
          },
          {
            "name": "Frozen Classic complete independent score",
            "score": [
              28.50189393939394,
              25.418560606060606
            ],
            "buffer": 1.5833333333333357,
            "purpose": "Independent rate baseline cushion below required3/4floors corroborates margin uncertainty.",
            "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
            "stressed_buffer": -1.4166666666666643,
            "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9841666666666704,
            "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
          }
        ],
        "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Unresolved HIGH: frozen Primary baseline flips winner and captured spread direction",
      "Favorite fails conservative opponent-offense cases using frozen Primary and current-season matchup inputs"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.567500000000006,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 4.567500000000006,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          27.601666666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            30.669166666666673,
            24.601666666666667
          ],
          "buffer": 4.567500000000006,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006,
          "adverse_score": [
            30.669166666666673,
            27.601666666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        30.669166666666673,
        24.601666666666667
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        30.669166666666673,
        24.601666666666667
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 55.27083333333334,
      "under_selection_total": 55.27083333333334
    },
    "calibration": "Numerical availability/stress eligibility superseded by explicit high-risk policy gate. No tier or opposite selection promoted.",
    "prior_numerical_decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE",
    "conservative_opponent_offense_cases": [
      {
        "name": "Frozen Primary complete independent score",
        "score": [
          24.621401890076257,
          27.560700017971044
        ],
        "buffer": -4.439298127894787,
        "purpose": "Preprice independently fitted opponent-adjusted baseline projects opposite winner; not a new score.",
        "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
        "stressed_buffer": -7.439298127894787,
        "edge_erased_vs_TU": 9.006798127894793,
        "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "name": "Frozen Primary opponent offense, TU own offense held fixed",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          27.560700017971044
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6084666486956287,
        "purpose": "Conservative opponent-offense gate diagnostic; no fifth forecast or model averaging.",
        "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3915333513043713,
        "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9590333513043774,
        "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "name": "Frozen TU current-season opponent matchup component, TU own offense held fixed",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          28.983333333333334
        ],
        "buffer": 0.1858333333333384,
        "purpose": "Existing current capability input supports higher SamHouston offense than prior-weighted baseline. Adverse case, not replacement of registered mean.",
        "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.8141666666666616,
        "edge_erased_vs_TU": 4.381666666666668,
        "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "name": "Frozen Classic complete independent score",
        "score": [
          28.50189393939394,
          25.418560606060606
        ],
        "buffer": 1.5833333333333357,
        "purpose": "Independent rate baseline cushion below required3/4floors corroborates margin uncertainty.",
        "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.4166666666666643,
        "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9841666666666704,
        "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-14T10:53:19.076000+00:00"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401871068",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871068",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.321114+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.535836+00:00",
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 52.5,
    "home_line": 1.5,
    "pick": "Over 52.5",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 2.770833333333343,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 2.770833333333343,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.770833333333343,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572,
    "base_score": [
      30.669166666666673,
      24.601666666666667
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      30.669166666666673,
      24.601666666666667
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 2.770833333333343,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "QB choices and college final availability",
        "detail": "Current official covered-role review establishes no unavailable starter. QB OR/rotations and Sam freshmanOL are documented context, not fabricated injury severity. Final availability report pending standard pregame timing.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -0.2291666666666572,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 2.770833333333343,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            30.669166666666673,
            24.601666666666667
          ],
          "buffer": 2.770833333333343,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.669166666666673,
            24.601666666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        30.669166666666673,
        24.601666666666667
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        30.669166666666673,
        24.601666666666667
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 55.27083333333334,
      "under_selection_total": 55.27083333333334
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401871068",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871068",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.321114+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.535836+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": -1.5,
    "home_line": 1.5,
    "pick": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -1.5",
    "price": -115.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 4.567500000000006,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.567500000000006,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.567500000000006,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006,
    "base_score": [
      30.669166666666673,
      24.601666666666667
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      30.669166666666673,
      24.601666666666667
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 4.567500000000006,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          27.601666666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "QB choices and college final availability",
        "detail": "Current official covered-role review establishes no unavailable starter. QB OR/rotations and Sam freshmanOL are documented context, not fabricated injury severity. Final availability report pending standard pregame timing.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Winner-flipping opponent-adjusted baseline and conservative opponent offense",
        "detail": "Primary frozen score favors SamHouston2.9393; TU current matchup opponent28.9833 and Primary opponent27.5607 undermine TUWKUfavorite cushion. No evidence resolves opposing capability estimates. This is supported event-specific model/input disagreement, not a blanket unanimity requirement.",
        "markets": [
          "spread"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "source": "score-freeze.json game401871068 models Primary/Classic/TightenUp inputs",
        "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections5 and7; high risk could flip winner/crossline/erase more than halfedge and favorite must survive conservative opponentoffense.",
        "adverse_cases": [
          {
            "name": "Frozen Primary complete independent score",
            "score": [
              24.621401890076257,
              27.560700017971044
            ],
            "buffer": -4.439298127894787,
            "purpose": "Preprice independently fitted opponent-adjusted baseline projects opposite winner; not a new score.",
            "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
            "stressed_buffer": -7.439298127894787,
            "edge_erased_vs_TU": 9.006798127894793,
            "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
          },
          {
            "name": "Frozen Primary opponent offense, TU own offense held fixed",
            "score": [
              30.669166666666673,
              27.560700017971044
            ],
            "buffer": 1.6084666486956287,
            "purpose": "Conservative opponent-offense gate diagnostic; no fifth forecast or model averaging.",
            "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
            "stressed_buffer": -1.3915333513043713,
            "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9590333513043774,
            "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
          },
          {
            "name": "Frozen TU current-season opponent matchup component, TU own offense held fixed",
            "score": [
              30.669166666666673,
              28.983333333333334
            ],
            "buffer": 0.1858333333333384,
            "purpose": "Existing current capability input supports higher SamHouston offense than prior-weighted baseline. Adverse case, not replacement of registered mean.",
            "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
            "stressed_buffer": -2.8141666666666616,
            "edge_erased_vs_TU": 4.381666666666668,
            "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
          },
          {
            "name": "Frozen Classic complete independent score",
            "score": [
              28.50189393939394,
              25.418560606060606
            ],
            "buffer": 1.5833333333333357,
            "purpose": "Independent rate baseline cushion below required3/4floors corroborates margin uncertainty.",
            "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
            "stressed_buffer": -1.4166666666666643,
            "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9841666666666704,
            "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
          }
        ],
        "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Unresolved HIGH: frozen Primary baseline flips winner and captured spread direction",
      "Favorite fails conservative opponent-offense cases using frozen Primary and current-season matchup inputs"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.567500000000006,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 4.567500000000006,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006,
        "adverse_score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          27.601666666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            30.669166666666673,
            24.601666666666667
          ],
          "buffer": 4.567500000000006,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006,
          "adverse_score": [
            30.669166666666673,
            27.601666666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        30.669166666666673,
        24.601666666666667
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        30.669166666666673,
        24.601666666666667
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 55.27083333333334,
      "under_selection_total": 55.27083333333334
    },
    "calibration": "Numerical availability/stress eligibility superseded by explicit high-risk policy gate. No tier or opposite selection promoted.",
    "prior_numerical_decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE",
    "conservative_opponent_offense_cases": [
      {
        "name": "Frozen Primary complete independent score",
        "score": [
          24.621401890076257,
          27.560700017971044
        ],
        "buffer": -4.439298127894787,
        "purpose": "Preprice independently fitted opponent-adjusted baseline projects opposite winner; not a new score.",
        "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
        "stressed_buffer": -7.439298127894787,
        "edge_erased_vs_TU": 9.006798127894793,
        "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "name": "Frozen Primary opponent offense, TU own offense held fixed",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          27.560700017971044
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6084666486956287,
        "purpose": "Conservative opponent-offense gate diagnostic; no fifth forecast or model averaging.",
        "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3915333513043713,
        "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9590333513043774,
        "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "name": "Frozen TU current-season opponent matchup component, TU own offense held fixed",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          28.983333333333334
        ],
        "buffer": 0.1858333333333384,
        "purpose": "Existing current capability input supports higher SamHouston offense than prior-weighted baseline. Adverse case, not replacement of registered mean.",
        "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
        "stressed_buffer": -2.8141666666666616,
        "edge_erased_vs_TU": 4.381666666666668,
        "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
      },
      {
        "name": "Frozen Classic complete independent score",
        "score": [
          28.50189393939394,
          25.418560606060606
        ],
        "buffer": 1.5833333333333357,
        "purpose": "Independent rate baseline cushion below required3/4floors corroborates margin uncertainty.",
        "ordinary_adverse_points": 3,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.4166666666666643,
        "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9841666666666704,
        "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true
      }
    ],
    "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-14T10:53:19.076000+00:00"
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401871068",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871068",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.321114+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.535836+00:00",
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 52.5,
    "home_line": 1.5,
    "pick": "Over 52.5",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 2.770833333333343,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 2.770833333333343,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.770833333333343,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572,
    "base_score": [
      30.669166666666673,
      24.601666666666667
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      30.669166666666673,
      24.601666666666667
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 2.770833333333343,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "QB choices and college final availability",
        "detail": "Current official covered-role review establishes no unavailable starter. QB OR/rotations and Sam freshmanOL are documented context, not fabricated injury severity. Final availability report pending standard pregame timing.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -0.2291666666666572,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/availability",
        "score": [
          30.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 2.770833333333343,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.669166666666673,
          24.601666666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/availability",
          "score": [
            30.669166666666673,
            24.601666666666667
          ],
          "buffer": 2.770833333333343,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.669166666666673,
            24.601666666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        30.669166666666673,
        24.601666666666667
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        30.669166666666673,
        24.601666666666667
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 55.27083333333334,
      "under_selection_total": 55.27083333333334
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Phoenix Suns · Home: San Antonio Spurs · Frost Bank Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic110.5 / 117.0
Adjusted 110.5 / 117.0
San Antonio Spurs
Home margin 6.42
Total 227.53
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -4.08
Total: LEAN
Difference 3.03
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 4/5; 95% Wilson 37.6–96.4%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Primary109.0 / 116.0
Adjusted 109.0 / 116.0
San Antonio Spurs
Home margin 6.98
Total 224.94
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -3.52
Total: LEAN
Difference 0.44
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON112.0 / 115.5
Adjusted 112.0 / 115.5
San Antonio Spurs
Home margin 3.42
Total 227.53
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -7.08
Total: LEAN
Difference 3.03
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF112.0 / 115.5
Adjusted 112.0 / 115.5
San Antonio Spurs
Home margin 3.42
Total 227.53
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -7.08
Total: LEAN
Difference 3.03
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+320 / -410+10.5 (-115) / -10.5 (-105)224.50 — O -110 / U -110Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.546615+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

San Antonio Spurs: October12 reserve-led game excludes Wembanyama/Fox/Castle/Harper/Vassell. Preserve earlier actual rotations for conditional returns, not perpetual reserve-only expectation. Harris calf and Quaintance knee separate; waived RJ Davis removed and15reference minutes redistributed. Phoenix Suns: Booker rested latest game; Green/Kennard actual shots and creation tracked. Booker/Bridges returns conditional. Williams Out; Maluach/Ighodaro demonstrated center share without invented permanent starter decision.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2791 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Frost Bank Center; listed 2026-10-15T00:00Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 14 vs PHX 8:00 pm ET Frost Bank Center Preseason. Preseason rotations/minutes uncertainty; no activation.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks · 8:00 PM ET

Away: New Orleans Pelicans · Home: Dallas Mavericks · American Airlines Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic116.0 / 118.5
Adjusted 116.0 / 118.5
Dallas Mavericks
Home margin 2.49
Total 234.65
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 0.99
Total: LEAN
Difference 4.15
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 4/5; 95% Wilson 37.6–96.4%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Primary115.5 / 117.5
Adjusted 115.5 / 117.5
Dallas Mavericks
Home margin 1.85
Total 232.85
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 0.35
Total: LEAN
Difference 2.35
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON117.5 / 117.0
Adjusted 117.5 / 117.0
New Orleans Pelicans
Home margin -0.51
Total 234.65
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -2.01
Total: LEAN
Difference 4.15
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF117.5 / 117.0
Adjusted 117.5 / 117.0
New Orleans Pelicans
Home margin -0.51
Total 234.65
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -2.01
Total: LEAN
Difference 4.15
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings-102 / -118+1.5 (-110) / -1.5 (-110)230.50 — O -115 / U -105Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.763404+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Dallas Mavericks: Latest Irving/Flagg/Risacher/Gafford/Washington reference preserved; Aldama/Lively/Johnson/Sasser returns conditional. Biberovic and de Larrea have professional European histories, not zero historical ability; source fallback separate from NBA data. Waived camp players excluded. New Orleans Pelicans: October8 reference predates Houstan/Koloko waivers; remove19combined observed minutes and redistribute to current demonstrated participants. Murray rest remains return scenario, Fears/Poole/Mathurin actual creation retained. AJ Johnson/Gibson September trade ledger separate from present membership.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2791 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

American Airlines Center; listed 2026-10-15T00:00Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 14 vs NOP 8:00 pm ET American Airlines Center Preseason. Preseason rotations/minutes uncertainty; no activation.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Milwaukee Brewers · Home: Los Angeles Dodgers · Dodger Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 3.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic4.5 / 4.5
Adjusted 4.5 / 4.5
Los Angeles Dodgers
Home margin 0.15
Total 8.85
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.35
Total: LEAN
Difference 1.35
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct13, stage 3; skips 0
Primary3.5 / 3.5
Adjusted 3.5 / 3.5
Milwaukee Brewers
Home margin -0.13
Total 7.25
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.63
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference -0.25
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct13, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON4.5 / 4.5
Adjusted 4.5 / 4.5
Milwaukee Brewers
Home margin -0.04
Total 8.80
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.54
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference 1.30
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct13, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF4.5 / 4.5
Adjusted 4.5 / 4.5
Milwaukee Brewers
Home margin -0.04
Total 8.80
Spread: TIER ELIGIBLE
Buffer -1.54
Total: LEAN
Difference 1.30
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct13, stage 3; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+148 / -180+1.5 (-150) / -1.5 (+124)7.50 — O -106 / U -114Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.729210+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Milwaukee Brewers: Official refreshed FAQ projects left-handed-starter platoons; actual orders TBD. No active-roster injury reported. Yelich starts per manager plan, Lara/Ortiz projected changes versus Frelick/Hamilton, normal selection not injury deduction. Los Angeles Dodgers: Official refreshed FAQ projects left-handed-starter platoons; actual orders TBD. Roberts explicitly says Ohtani WILL START, superseding earlier bench-consideration snippet. Ohtani rightbiceps/leftknee and Freeman rightknee lingering issues retain contingency branches. Hernandez/Rojas platoons replace Muncy/Edman relative toGame2.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current; home: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current. Primary uses 4952 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Dodger Stadium; listed 2026-10-15T00:00Z. Official Dodgers venue now branded UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium; outdoor Los Angeles. Official MLB event time/stage matched.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:20.828919+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T09:06:53+00:00; periods: number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T17:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T18:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 77; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 3.888888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 25; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small; shortForecast: Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T18:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 71; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 3.3333333333333335; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 30; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 3.888888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 35; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 71; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 7.777777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 41; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: NW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.3483217592592602,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.34832175925926023,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -150.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 1.1516782407407398,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both. Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.",
      "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries. ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.",
      "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable. Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.346161265432098,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.346161265432098,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 4,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations",
      "mlb-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.5,
    "price": -106.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration. 4 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.846161265432098,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration. 4 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.",
      "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both. Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.",
      "Ohtani rightbiceps/leftknee and Freeman rightknee lingering; Roberts explicitly confirms Ohtani starts. No new confirmed absence; possible diminished performance remains unquantified. Same projected lineup plus explicit OhtaniDH-DePaula and Freeman1B-Muncy contingency branches; two priorseasons and current hand splits retained.",
      "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries. ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.",
      "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable. Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim.",
      "ClassicMIL4.3472-LAD4.4989; PrimaryMIL3.6930-LAD3.5614; TightenUpMIL4.4198-LAD4.3796. Tiny winner margins and opposing directions. Totals8.8462/7.2544/8.7994. Preserve disagreement; never average into fifthforecast. Winner not robust to one-run scenario; separate spread/total evaluation afterfreeze."
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.6315453283090662,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.6315453283090662,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -150.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 0.8684546716909338,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both. Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.",
      "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries. ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.",
      "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable. Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 0.2456307445596222,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.7543692554403778,
    "same_side_after_one_run": false,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": false,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 3,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Under",
    "line": 7.5,
    "price": -114.0,
    "reason": "Base buffer is below the frozen configuration floor. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration. 3 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 8.254369255440377,
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Base buffer is below the frozen configuration floor. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration. 3 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.",
      "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both. Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.",
      "Ohtani rightbiceps/leftknee and Freeman rightknee lingering; Roberts explicitly confirms Ohtani starts. No new confirmed absence; possible diminished performance remains unquantified. Same projected lineup plus explicit OhtaniDH-DePaula and Freeman1B-Muncy contingency branches; two priorseasons and current hand splits retained.",
      "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries. ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.",
      "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable. Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim.",
      "ClassicMIL4.3472-LAD4.4989; PrimaryMIL3.6930-LAD3.5614; TightenUpMIL4.4198-LAD4.3796. Tiny winner margins and opposing directions. Totals8.8462/7.2544/8.7994. Preserve disagreement; never average into fifthforecast. Winner not robust to one-run scenario; separate spread/total evaluation afterfreeze."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -150.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Conservative ON disallows unresolved medium availability risk and prohibits Free Picks.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 0.9598765432098766,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Conservative ON disallows unresolved medium availability risk and prohibits Free Picks.",
      "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both. Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.",
      "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries. ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.",
      "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable. Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.299382716049383,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.29938271604938294,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 4,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations",
      "mlb-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.5,
    "price": -106.0,
    "reason": "Base buffer is below the frozen configuration floor. 4 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383,
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Base buffer is below the frozen configuration floor. 4 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.",
      "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both. Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.",
      "Ohtani rightbiceps/leftknee and Freeman rightknee lingering; Roberts explicitly confirms Ohtani starts. No new confirmed absence; possible diminished performance remains unquantified. Same projected lineup plus explicit OhtaniDH-DePaula and Freeman1B-Muncy contingency branches; two priorseasons and current hand splits retained.",
      "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries. ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.",
      "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable. Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim.",
      "ClassicMIL4.3472-LAD4.4989; PrimaryMIL3.6930-LAD3.5614; TightenUpMIL4.4198-LAD4.3796. Tiny winner margins and opposing directions. Totals8.8462/7.2544/8.7994. Preserve disagreement; never average into fifthforecast. Winner not robust to one-run scenario; separate spread/total evaluation afterfreeze."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": true,
    "maximum_tier": "Free Pick",
    "final_state": "TIER ELIGIBLE",
    "production_decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY",
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -150.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Two unresolved medium risks (workload and reference conversion) require downgrade. Pick of the Day and Bonus permit at most one, so optional Free Pick only. This is descriptive gate eligibility, not calibrated positive expected value.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 0.9598765432098766,
    "state": "TIER ELIGIBLE",
    "decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Two unresolved medium risks (workload and reference conversion) require downgrade. Pick of the Day and Bonus permit at most one, so optional Free Pick only. This is descriptive gate eligibility, not calibrated positive expected value.",
      "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both. Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.",
      "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries. ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.",
      "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable. Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.299382716049383,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.29938271604938294,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.",
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 4,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations",
      "mlb-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.5,
    "price": -106.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. 4 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. 4 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.",
      "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both. Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.",
      "Ohtani rightbiceps/leftknee and Freeman rightknee lingering; Roberts explicitly confirms Ohtani starts. No new confirmed absence; possible diminished performance remains unquantified. Same projected lineup plus explicit OhtaniDH-DePaula and Freeman1B-Muncy contingency branches; two priorseasons and current hand splits retained.",
      "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries. ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.",
      "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable. Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim.",
      "ClassicMIL4.3472-LAD4.4989; PrimaryMIL3.6930-LAD3.5614; TightenUpMIL4.4198-LAD4.3796. Tiny winner margins and opposing directions. Totals8.8462/7.2544/8.7994. Preserve disagreement; never average into fifthforecast. Winner not robust to one-run scenario; separate spread/total evaluation afterfreeze."
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Chicago Bulls · Home: Milwaukee Bucks · Fiserv Forum. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic115.0 / 117.5
Adjusted 115.0 / 117.5
Milwaukee Bucks
Home margin 2.50
Total 232.65
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 4.00
Total: LEAN
Difference 1.15
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 4/5; 95% Wilson 37.6–96.4%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Primary114.5 / 116.0
Adjusted 114.5 / 116.0
Milwaukee Bucks
Home margin 1.56
Total 230.91
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 3.06
Total: LEAN
Difference -0.59
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON116.5 / 116.0
Adjusted 116.5 / 116.0
Chicago Bulls
Home margin -0.50
Total 232.65
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 1.00
Total: LEAN
Difference 1.15
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF116.5 / 116.0
Adjusted 116.5 / 116.0
Chicago Bulls
Home margin -0.50
Total 232.65
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 1.00
Total: LEAN
Difference 1.15
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings-130 / +110-1.5 (-115) / +1.5 (-105)231.50 — O -112 / U -108Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.696275+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Milwaukee Bucks: Herro/Rollins and Jaquez creation with Turner/Ware frontcourt tracked. Ament/Burries/Jakucionis dated DTD flags separate from bench coach decisions. Markovic source404 affects no latest positive-minute role; absence of history not zero. Chicago Bulls: Collins will remain out Wednesday per October13 league-hosted update. Awaka questionable; Okoro missed practice. Explicit Okoro absence branch redistributes13reference minutes among current roster, with Hield/Hawkins/Leonard Miller supported opportunity pool. Hield trade and Hawkins subsequent signing retained.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2791 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Fiserv Forum; listed 2026-10-15T00:00Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 14 vs CHI 8:00 pm ET Fiserv Forum Preseason. Preseason rotations/minutes uncertainty; no activation.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Detroit Pistons · Home: Minnesota Timberwolves · Target Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic114.5 / 115.5
Adjusted 114.5 / 115.5
Minnesota Timberwolves
Home margin 0.60
Total 230.01
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 2.10
Total: LEAN
Difference 2.51
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 4/5; 95% Wilson 37.6–96.4%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Primary113.0 / 112.5
Adjusted 113.0 / 112.5
Detroit Pistons
Home margin -0.31
Total 225.33
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 1.19
Total: LEAN
Difference -2.17
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON116.0 / 114.0
Adjusted 116.0 / 114.0
Detroit Pistons
Home margin -2.40
Total 230.01
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -0.90
Total: LEAN
Difference 2.51
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF116.0 / 114.0
Adjusted 116.0 / 114.0
Detroit Pistons
Home margin -2.40
Total 230.01
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -0.90
Total: LEAN
Difference 2.51
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings-110 / -110-1.5 (-102) / +1.5 (-118)227.50 — O -110 / U -110Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.713859+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Minnesota Timberwolves: Ball/Dosunmu returned October12; latest full rotation supersedes prior bench-only game. DiVincenzo Out, Kuminga/Freeman/Shannon/Zikarsky dated issues conditional. No new confirmed first-unit absence. Detroit Pistons: Cunningham/Duren absent latest reference; Jenkins/Okorie creation and Reed/Smith center minutes documented. Earlier actual rotations are conditional returns, not fresh lost PPG deductions.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2791 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Target Center; listed 2026-10-15T00:00Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 14 vs DET 8:00 pm ET Target Center Preseason. Preseason rotations/minutes uncertainty; no activation.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche · 8:30 PM ET

Away: Dallas Stars · Home: Colorado Avalanche · Ball Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic3.0 / 3.5
Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5
Colorado Avalanche
Home margin 0.57
Total 6.12
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -0.93
Total: LEAN
Difference 0.62
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 9/16; 95% Wilson 33.2–76.9%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Primary3.0 / 3.5
Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5
Colorado Avalanche
Home margin 0.57
Total 6.14
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -0.93
Total: LEAN
Difference 0.64
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 8/16; 95% Wilson 28.0–72.0%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON3.0 / 3.0
Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0
Colorado Avalanche
Home margin 0.30
Total 6.04
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.20
Total: LEAN
Difference 0.54
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 7/16; 95% Wilson 23.1–66.8%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF3.0 / 3.0
Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0
Colorado Avalanche
Home margin 0.30
Total 6.04
Spread: LEAN
Buffer -1.20
Total: LEAN
Difference 0.54
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 7/16; 95% Wilson 23.1–66.8%; Oct13, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+124 / -148+1.5 (-198) / -1.5 (+164)5.50 — O -135 / U +114Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.721859+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

DAL: Johnston illness late scratch October13 and coach says will NOT travel Wednesday. Reference used11forwards/7defensemen, Capobianco extra defenseman; Seguin received PP opportunity. Hintz scored/played but new DTD flag conditional; no confirmed injury automatically inferred from fight. Duchene surgery and Kiviranta absence preserved, Faksa returned. Old Lundkvist Out flag superseded by actual play. COL: Makar absent for family reasons October13; Wednesday return explicitly unannounced. Malinski/Toews redistributed top-pair/PP work. LHeureux late upper-body scratch left17skaters; coach considering recall, identity unannounced. Actual shortened group plus return/recall uncertainty retained; no invented18th skater.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2857 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Ball Arena; listed 2026-10-15T00:30Z. Official regular-season gameType2 matched. Both clubs played Oct13; back-to-back travel/goalie uncertainty retained.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Sporting Kansas City at Nashville SC · 8:30 PM ET

Away: Sporting Kansas City · Home: Nashville SC · GEODIS Park. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+800 / -450
Draw +550
+1.5 (+120) / -1.5 (-165)3.50 — O -130 / U +100Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.779455+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Sporting Kansas City: Lasse Berg Johnsen (out), Or Blorian (out), Diego Borges (out), Moises Mosquera (out), Owen Wolff (out), Jake Davis (questionable), Justin Reynolds (questionable). Nashville SC: Owen Presthus (out), Famara Camara (questionable). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

GEODIS Park; 2026-10-15T00:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:20.556870+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T10:21:28+00:00; periods: number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 82; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 21; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 21.666666666666668; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 69; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 80; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 25; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 22.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 77; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WNW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_sct,30?size=small; shortForecast: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 78; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 18; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 21.666666666666668; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 79; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_sct,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 77; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 14; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 21.666666666666668; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 82; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Seattle Sounders FC at FC Dallas · 8:30 PM ET

Away: Seattle Sounders FC · Home: FC Dallas · Toyota Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+275 / -130
Draw +295
+0.5 (-105) / -0.5 (-130)3.50 — O +130 / U -165Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.898297+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Seattle Sounders FC: Pedro de la Vega (out), Nikola Petković (out), Paul Rothrock (out). FC Dallas: Logan Farrington (out), Anderson Julio (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Toyota Stadium; 2026-10-15T00:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:20.475159+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T10:11:39+00:00; periods: number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 88; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 13; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 23.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 66; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 86; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 13; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 23.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 70; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 83; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 13; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 23.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 74; windSpeed: 15 mph; windDirection: SSE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 82; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 5; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 23.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 77; windSpeed: 15 mph; windDirection: SSE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Vancouver Whitecaps at St. Louis CITY SC · 8:30 PM ET

Away: Vancouver Whitecaps · Home: St. Louis CITY SC · Energizer Park. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+195 / +110
Draw +275
+0.5 (-150) / -0.5 (+105)3.50 — O +120 / U -150Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.912819+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Vancouver Whitecaps: Sam Adekugbe (out), Jeevan Badwal (out), Tristan Blackmon (out), Kenji Cabrera (out), Belal Halbouni (out), Thomas Müller (out). St. Louis CITY SC: Celio Pompeu (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Energizer Park; 2026-10-15T00:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:20.478242+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T10:06:24+00:00; periods: number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 74; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 20; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 22.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 93; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 73; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 15; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 22.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 97; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 71; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 17; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 21.666666666666668; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 100; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 71; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 18; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 21.666666666666668; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 100; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_sct,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Philadelphia Union at Chicago Fire FC · 8:30 PM ET

Away: Philadelphia Union · Home: Chicago Fire FC · Soldier Field. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+140 / +155
Draw +270
-0.5 (+130) / +0.5 (-185)3.50 — O -105 / U -120Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.963434+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Philadelphia Union: Agustin Anello (out), Danley Jean Jacques (out). Chicago Fire FC: Dje D’Avilla (out), André Franco (out), Robin Lod (out), Anzor Mekvabishvili (out), Sam Rogers (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Soldier Field; 2026-10-15T00:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:19.078302+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T07:41:19+00:00; periods: number: 15; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 60; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.666666666666666; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 78; windSpeed: 20 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 59; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.666666666666666; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 80; windSpeed: 15 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 59; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.666666666666666; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 80; windSpeed: 15 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 59; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.666666666666666; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 80; windSpeed: 15 mph; windDirection: NE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/bkn?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · San Jose Earthquakes at Real Salt Lake · 9:30 PM ET

Away: San Jose Earthquakes · Home: Real Salt Lake · America First Field. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+240 / -115
Draw +290
+0.5 (-120) / -0.5 (-115)3.50 — O +115 / U -145Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.953325+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

San Jose Earthquakes: Nonso Adimabua (out), Jonathan Gonzalez (out), Darius Johnson (out), DeJuan Jones (out), Benji Kikanovic (out), Jack Skahan (out), Niko Tsakiris (out). Real Salt Lake: Juan Jose Arias (out), Emeka Eneli (out), Lukas Engel (out), Justen Glad (out), Diego Luna (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

America First Field; 2026-10-15T01:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:20.142211+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T06:31:28+00:00; periods: number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 54; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 10; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 6.111111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 65; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: NNW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 51; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 10; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 5.555555555555555; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 70; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: NNW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 49; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 5.555555555555555; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 76; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: NE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 47; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 5; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 81; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: NE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Minnesota United FC at Colorado Rapids · 9:30 PM ET

Away: Minnesota United FC · Home: Colorado Rapids · Dick's Sporting Goods Park. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+220 / +105
Draw +260
+0.5 (-135) / -0.5 (-105)2.50 — O -165 / U +130Source
2026-10-14T10:50:10.025952+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Minnesota United FC: Anthony Markanich (out), Alec Smir (out), Peter Stroud (out). Colorado Rapids: Ali Fadal (out), Youssef Maziz (out), Zack Steffen (out), Reggie Cannon (questionable), Ted Ku (questionable). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Dick's Sporting Goods Park; 2026-10-15T01:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:20.096468+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T06:46:36+00:00; periods: number: 16; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 43; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 84; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 6.111111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 100; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: NNE; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain,80?size=small; shortForecast: Rain; detailedForecast: ; number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 43; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 84; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 6.111111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 100; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain,80?size=small; shortForecast: Rain; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 43; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 84; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 6.111111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 100; windSpeed: 8 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain,80?size=small; shortForecast: Rain; detailedForecast: ; number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-06:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-06:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 43; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 84; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 6.111111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 100; windSpeed: 7 mph; windDirection: N; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain,80?size=small; shortForecast: Rain; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers · 10:30 PM ET

Away: Denver Nuggets · Home: LA Clippers · Intuit Dome. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
Classic116.0 / 117.0
Adjusted 116.0 / 117.0
LA Clippers
Home margin 0.99
Total 232.70
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 3.49
Total: LEAN
Difference 9.20
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 4/5; 95% Wilson 37.6–96.4%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Primary114.5 / 115.0
Adjusted 114.5 / 115.0
LA Clippers
Home margin 0.67
Total 229.58
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 3.17
Total: LEAN
Difference 6.08
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON117.5 / 115.5
Adjusted 117.5 / 115.5
Denver Nuggets
Home margin -2.01
Total 232.70
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 0.49
Total: LEAN
Difference 9.20
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF117.5 / 115.5
Adjusted 117.5 / 115.5
Denver Nuggets
Home margin -2.01
Total 232.70
Spread: LEAN
Buffer 0.49
Total: LEAN
Difference 9.20
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedWinner 2/5; 95% Wilson 11.8–76.9%; Oct13, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings-142 / +120-2.5 (-110) / +2.5 (-110)223.50 — O -112 / U -108Source
2026-10-14T10:50:09.968955+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

LA Clippers: Garland/Christie creation and Hachimura/Jones/Lopez frontcourt with multiple wing injuries. Remove waived Kawamura14minutes; Ingram/Strus/Miller/Niederhauser absences and Beal/Sanders unresolved returns. Loyer re-signing October13 overrides October6 waiver, current role unestimated. Denver Nuggets: Jokic/Murray/Braun/Gordon/Johnson intact latest reference; Spencer Jones not contact-cleared. DeRozan limited preseason workload distinct from regular-season role. Walker/Bradshaw waived excluded; source-date disagreement on camp signing flagged, no current positive-minute dependence.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2791 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Intuit Dome; listed 2026-10-15T02:30Z. Official home-team schedule matches Oct 14 vs DEN 10:30 pm ET Intuit Dome Preseason. Preseason rotations/minutes uncertainty; no activation.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Houston Dynamo FC at San Diego FC · 10:30 PM ET

Away: Houston Dynamo FC · Home: San Diego FC · Snapdragon Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+205 / +110
Draw +255
+0.5 (-150) / -0.5 (+110)2.50 — O -155 / U +120Source
2026-10-14T10:50:10.230270+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Houston Dynamo FC: Felipe Andrade (out), Jimmy Maurer (out), Jonathan Bond (questionable). San Diego FC: Osvald Søe (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Snapdragon Stadium; 2026-10-15T02:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:20.184833+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T08:33:05+00:00; periods: number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 70; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 10.555555555555555; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 52; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: NW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.666666666666666; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 58; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.666666666666666; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 60; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 66; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.11111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 61; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Austin FC at LAFC · 10:30 PM ET

Away: Austin FC · Home: LAFC · BMO Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+500 / -230
Draw +360
+1.5 (-155) / -1.5 (+110)3.50 — O +135 / U -170Source
2026-10-14T10:50:10.123057+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Austin FC: Mikkel Desler (questionable), Žan Kolmanič (out). LAFC: Cabral Carter (out), Jeremy Ebobisse (out), Timothy Tillman (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

BMO Stadium; 2026-10-15T02:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:20.230358+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T09:06:53+00:00; periods: number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 69; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 7.777777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 43; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: WSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 69; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 10; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 50; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WNW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 69; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 10.555555555555555; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 52; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WNW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 8.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 50; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WNW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/few?size=small; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLS · Portland Timbers at LA Galaxy · 10:30 PM ET

Away: Portland Timbers · Home: LA Galaxy · Dignity Health Sports Park. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 13846.

ModelProjected scoreAdjusted outcomeSide / totalSelected-market probabilityExact-score probabilityHistorical winner accuracy
ClassicEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
PrimaryEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ONEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFFEngine unavailable
Adjusted Engine unavailable
No agreement
Home margin Unavailable
Total Unavailable
Spread: NO_EDGE
Buffer Unavailable
Total: NO_EDGE
Difference Unavailable
Unavailable / Not calibratedUnavailable / Not calibratedNo matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

ProviderMoneyline away / homeSpread away / homeTotalEvidence
DraftKings+210 / +100
Draw +280
+0.5 (-135) / -0.5 (-105)3.50 — O +100 / U -125Source
2026-10-14T10:50:10.153469+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Portland Timbers: Alex Bonetig (out), Brandon Bye (out), Zac McGraw (out), Juan Mosquera (out), Hunter Sulte (out), Finn Surman (out). LA Galaxy: Kyōgo Furuhashi (out), Hirving Lozano (out). Matchday30 official report; questionable remains conditional. Oct14 XI unannounced; named replacements are not assumed.

Uncle Sibursam

Recent actual starting XIs and team-split histories remain descriptive. No registered MLS engine or validated conversion from replacements to goals.

Gideon Marsh

All four numerical forecasts are unavailable. No model arithmetic, winner agreement or probability is claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Dignity Health Sports Park; 2026-10-15T02:30Z; Official MLS content API exact fixture/title,time,Matchday30/regular-season and club/venue IDs corroborated. No registered calibrated MLS score engine; retain four explicit unavailable forecasts, no invented soccer scores.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-14T10:42:20.157612+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-14T09:06:53+00:00; periods: number: 17; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T19:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 8.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 49; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: W; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T20:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.11111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 56; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WNW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T21:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 66; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 10.555555555555555; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 58; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WNW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-14T22:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-14T23:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 66; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 11.11111111111111; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 60; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WNW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS hourly conditions near venue; no unregistered numerical adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before freeze. Regulation three-way moneyline must include draw after freeze.

Warren Bullion

PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE. Complete personnel and trade review retained despite unavailable score engine; no automatic football deduction.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}
Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

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