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      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 5,
      "hits": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.4,
      "wilson95": [
        0.11762077423264783,
        0.769275718723987
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-13",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 14.101829050000001,
      "mean_margin_error": 19.471950099999997,
      "mean_total_error": 20.489024100000005,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "season_type": 1,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 5,
      "hits": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.4,
      "wilson95": [
        0.11762077423264783,
        0.769275718723987
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-13",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 14.101829050000001,
      "mean_margin_error": 19.471950099999997,
      "mean_total_error": 20.489024100000005,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "accuracy": 1.0,
      "wilson95": [
        0.34238022750665303,
        1.0
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-13",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 3.3358493589743583,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.0633653846153823,
      "mean_total_error": 6.4536858974359,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NCAAF",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5,
      "wilson95": [
        0.09453120573423074,
        0.9054687942657693
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-13",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 2.5858493589743583,
      "mean_margin_error": 3.5633653846153823,
      "mean_total_error": 4.9536858974359,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "adjusted",
      "n": 16,
      "hits": 7,
      "accuracy": 0.4375,
      "wilson95": [
        0.23098652405492354,
        0.6682144360118811
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-13",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.27858171875,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.2469503125,
      "mean_total_error": 1.5365853125,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability."
    },
    {
      "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON",
      "sport": "NHL",
      "season_type": 2,
      "scenario": "base",
      "n": 16,
      "hits": 7,
      "accuracy": 0.4375,
      "wilson95": [
        0.23098652405492354,
        0.6682144360118811
      ],
      "skips": 0,
      "window": "2026-10-13",
      "mean_team_score_mae": 1.27858171875,
      "mean_margin_error": 2.2469503125,
      "mean_total_error": 1.5365853125,
      "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability."
    }
  ],
  "official_games": 29,
  "scope": "Every supported publicly tracked Oct13 forecast graded; audit-only excluded exhibition is separate."
}