{ "ledger": { "created_utc": "2026-10-14T10:47:34.535572+00:00", "date_eastern": "2026-10-14", "score_cutoff_utc": "2026-10-14T10:40:18.094217+00:00", "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "market_data_read": false, "incidental_exposure": "Search returned irrelevant sportsbook result title but no numbers; not opened. No prices/lines/probabilities used.", "release_status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / APPLICABLE ENDPOINT GATES PENDING", "blocking_reasons": [], "source_failures": [ "KSU viewer/download404 resolved by official-linked CloudfrontPDF.", "CUSA policy landing page accessible but current Oct14report not rendered at early cutoff; final availability is conditional." ], "event_reviews": [ { "event_id": "401871054", "identity": { "id": "401871054", "date": "2026-10-14T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3878", "fullName": "Robert W. Plaster Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Springfield", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "338", "away_name": "Kennesaw State Owls", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2623", "home_name": "Missouri State Bears", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] }, "teams": [ { "team": "Kennesaw State Owls", "side": "away", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Rickie Collins", "Landon Varnes", "Skyler Williams" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Rickie Collins", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Landon Varnes", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Skyler Williams", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Booker20/161 before injury; Munroe19/299 and moved slot; Rogers12/229; Gary10/84; Dean8/58; RB Woods47/206 plus16receiving53; Murrell25/167; Morgan16/104. Bullock2025primary receivingTE23catches157 and832snaps.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Boogie Woods III", "Latrelle Murrell", "Triston Morgan" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Boogie Woods III", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Latrelle Murrell", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Triston Morgan", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Booker20/161 before injury; Munroe19/299 and moved slot; Rogers12/229; Gary10/84; Dean8/58; RB Woods47/206 plus16receiving53; Murrell25/167; Morgan16/104. Bullock2025primary receivingTE23catches157 and832snaps.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Zion Booker", "Brayden Munroe", "Dylan Gary", "Navelle Dean", "Javon Rogers", "Davis Bryson" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Zion Booker", "status": "OUT REST OF SEASON; official game6notes p11" }, { "player": "Brayden Munroe", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Dylan Gary", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Navelle Dean", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Javon Rogers", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Davis Bryson", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "players": { "Zion Booker": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Western Carolina", "level": "FCS", "games": 8, "starts": null, "receptions": 39, "yards": 540, "td": 4, "yards_per_reception": 13.846153846153847 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Tulsa", "level": "FBS", "games": 8, "starts": 7, "receptions": 46, "yards": 418, "td": 2, "rush_attempts": 5, "rush_yards": 24, "yards_per_reception": 9.08695652173913 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "receptions": 20, "yards": 161, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 8.05 } ], "Brayden Munroe": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 12, "starts": null, "receptions": 37, "yards": 447, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 12.08108108108108 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 46, "yards": 696, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 15.130434782608695 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 5, "receptions": 19, "yards": 299, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 15.736842105263158 } ], "Gerard Bullock Jr.": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Tennessee State", "level": "FCS", "games": 14, "starts": null, "receptions": 27, "yards": 232, "td": 2, "yards_per_reception": 8.592592592592593 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 14, "starts": 14, "receptions": 23, "yards": 157, "td": 1, "snaps": 832, "yards_per_reception": 6.826086956521739 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "receptions": 1, "yards": 5, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 5.0 } ], "Reed Jesiolowski": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Southern Miss", "level": "FBS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 8, "yards": 98, "td": null, "yards_per_reception": 12.25 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northwest Mississippi CC", "level": "NJCAA", "games": 11, "starts": 11, "receptions": null, "yards": 348, "td": 4 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 5, "yards": 34, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 6.8 } ], "Jamari Harrold": [ { "season": 2024, "team": null, "level": "High school; not converted", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "college_opportunities": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 0, "receptions": 0, "yards": 0, "td": 0, "role": "Kickoff coverage; receiving table checked." }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 6, "yards": 63, "td": 1, "yards_per_reception": 10.5 } ] }, "sources": [ "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/zion-booker/14872", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/brayden-munroe/14899", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/gerard-bullock-jr-/14974", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/reed-jesiolowski/14917", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/jamari-harrold/14787", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2026", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2025", "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/ksuowls.com/documents/2026/10/12/2026_KSU_FB_Game_Notes__Missouri_State_.pdf" ], "source_caveats": [ "Munroe official bio cumulative totals internally inconsistent; use identified season rows without pooled career arithmetic.", "Some historical starts/routes/targets/drops/red-zone opportunities unavailable; retained null, not invented.", "FCS/NJCAA/FBS rows remain distinct; no fabricated conversion." ], "familiarity": "Bullock and Harrold return under second-year head coach Jerry Mack/OC Mitch Militello/TE coach Kyle Blocker; Munroe, Booker and Jesiolowski offseason newcomers sharing current2026practice and first5games. Munroe slot shift documented and Jesiolowski/Harrold already taking TE opportunities. No measured protection-call or pre-KSU relationship assumption.", "opportunity_change": "Booker established slot20catches/161 loses remaining-season opportunities; Munroe moved slot and Gary entered starting lineup Oct7, with Dean/Rogers rotation. Bullock prior primaryTE832/884TEsnaps; if still limited, Jesiolowski/Harrold cover TE routes/blocking. No exact future target-share forecast available.", "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated incremental point effect. Team baseline already includes postinjury games; do not subtract historical lost production again. Human overlay is separately authorized scenario, not calibrated statistical estimate." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Gerard Bullock Jr.", "Reed Jesiolowski", "Jamari Harrold" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Gerard Bullock Jr.", "status": "UNRESOLVED CURRENT; missed previous3games injured, listed backup on current depth" }, { "player": "Reed Jesiolowski", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Jamari Harrold", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "players": { "Zion Booker": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Western Carolina", "level": "FCS", "games": 8, "starts": null, "receptions": 39, "yards": 540, "td": 4, "yards_per_reception": 13.846153846153847 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Tulsa", "level": "FBS", "games": 8, "starts": 7, "receptions": 46, "yards": 418, "td": 2, "rush_attempts": 5, "rush_yards": 24, "yards_per_reception": 9.08695652173913 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "receptions": 20, "yards": 161, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 8.05 } ], "Brayden Munroe": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 12, "starts": null, "receptions": 37, "yards": 447, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 12.08108108108108 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 46, "yards": 696, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 15.130434782608695 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 5, "receptions": 19, "yards": 299, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 15.736842105263158 } ], "Gerard Bullock Jr.": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Tennessee State", "level": "FCS", "games": 14, "starts": null, "receptions": 27, "yards": 232, "td": 2, "yards_per_reception": 8.592592592592593 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 14, "starts": 14, "receptions": 23, "yards": 157, "td": 1, "snaps": 832, "yards_per_reception": 6.826086956521739 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "receptions": 1, "yards": 5, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 5.0 } ], "Reed Jesiolowski": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Southern Miss", "level": "FBS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 8, "yards": 98, "td": null, "yards_per_reception": 12.25 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northwest Mississippi CC", "level": "NJCAA", "games": 11, "starts": 11, "receptions": null, "yards": 348, "td": 4 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 5, "yards": 34, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 6.8 } ], "Jamari Harrold": [ { "season": 2024, "team": null, "level": "High school; not converted", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "college_opportunities": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 0, "receptions": 0, "yards": 0, "td": 0, "role": "Kickoff coverage; receiving table checked." }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 6, "yards": 63, "td": 1, "yards_per_reception": 10.5 } ] }, "sources": [ "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/zion-booker/14872", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/brayden-munroe/14899", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/gerard-bullock-jr-/14974", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/reed-jesiolowski/14917", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/jamari-harrold/14787", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2026", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2025", "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/ksuowls.com/documents/2026/10/12/2026_KSU_FB_Game_Notes__Missouri_State_.pdf" ], "source_caveats": [ "Munroe official bio cumulative totals internally inconsistent; use identified season rows without pooled career arithmetic.", "Some historical starts/routes/targets/drops/red-zone opportunities unavailable; retained null, not invented.", "FCS/NJCAA/FBS rows remain distinct; no fabricated conversion." ], "familiarity": "Bullock and Harrold return under second-year head coach Jerry Mack/OC Mitch Militello/TE coach Kyle Blocker; Munroe, Booker and Jesiolowski offseason newcomers sharing current2026practice and first5games. Munroe slot shift documented and Jesiolowski/Harrold already taking TE opportunities. No measured protection-call or pre-KSU relationship assumption.", "opportunity_change": "Booker established slot20catches/161 loses remaining-season opportunities; Munroe moved slot and Gary entered starting lineup Oct7, with Dean/Rogers rotation. Bullock prior primaryTE832/884TEsnaps; if still limited, Jesiolowski/Harrold cover TE routes/blocking. No exact future target-share forecast available.", "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated incremental point effect. Team baseline already includes postinjury games; do not subtract historical lost production again. Human overlay is separately authorized scenario, not calibrated statistical estimate." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Rickie Collins", "Landon Varnes", "Skyler Williams" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Rickie Collins", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Landon Varnes", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Skyler Williams", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Booker20/161 before injury; Munroe19/299 and moved slot; Rogers12/229; Gary10/84; Dean8/58; RB Woods47/206 plus16receiving53; Murrell25/167; Morgan16/104. Bullock2025primary receivingTE23catches157 and832snaps.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Boogie Woods III", "Latrelle Murrell", "Triston Morgan" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Boogie Woods III", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Latrelle Murrell", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Triston Morgan", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Booker20/161 before injury; Munroe19/299 and moved slot; Rogers12/229; Gary10/84; Dean8/58; RB Woods47/206 plus16receiving53; Murrell25/167; Morgan16/104. Bullock2025primary receivingTE23catches157 and832snaps.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Zion Booker", "Brayden Munroe", "Dylan Gary", "Navelle Dean", "Javon Rogers", "Davis Bryson" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Zion Booker", "status": "OUT REST OF SEASON; official game6notes p11" }, { "player": "Brayden Munroe", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Dylan Gary", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Navelle Dean", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Javon Rogers", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Davis Bryson", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "players": { "Zion Booker": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Western Carolina", "level": "FCS", "games": 8, "starts": null, "receptions": 39, "yards": 540, "td": 4, "yards_per_reception": 13.846153846153847 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Tulsa", "level": "FBS", "games": 8, "starts": 7, "receptions": 46, "yards": 418, "td": 2, "rush_attempts": 5, "rush_yards": 24, "yards_per_reception": 9.08695652173913 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "receptions": 20, "yards": 161, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 8.05 } ], "Brayden Munroe": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 12, "starts": null, "receptions": 37, "yards": 447, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 12.08108108108108 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 46, "yards": 696, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 15.130434782608695 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 5, "receptions": 19, "yards": 299, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 15.736842105263158 } ], "Gerard Bullock Jr.": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Tennessee State", "level": "FCS", "games": 14, "starts": null, "receptions": 27, "yards": 232, "td": 2, "yards_per_reception": 8.592592592592593 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 14, "starts": 14, "receptions": 23, "yards": 157, "td": 1, "snaps": 832, "yards_per_reception": 6.826086956521739 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "receptions": 1, "yards": 5, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 5.0 } ], "Reed Jesiolowski": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Southern Miss", "level": "FBS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 8, "yards": 98, "td": null, "yards_per_reception": 12.25 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northwest Mississippi CC", "level": "NJCAA", "games": 11, "starts": 11, "receptions": null, "yards": 348, "td": 4 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 5, "yards": 34, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 6.8 } ], "Jamari Harrold": [ { "season": 2024, "team": null, "level": "High school; not converted", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "college_opportunities": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 0, "receptions": 0, "yards": 0, "td": 0, "role": "Kickoff coverage; receiving table checked." }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 6, "yards": 63, "td": 1, "yards_per_reception": 10.5 } ] }, "sources": [ "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/zion-booker/14872", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/brayden-munroe/14899", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/gerard-bullock-jr-/14974", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/reed-jesiolowski/14917", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/jamari-harrold/14787", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2026", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2025", "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/ksuowls.com/documents/2026/10/12/2026_KSU_FB_Game_Notes__Missouri_State_.pdf" ], "source_caveats": [ "Munroe official bio cumulative totals internally inconsistent; use identified season rows without pooled career arithmetic.", "Some historical starts/routes/targets/drops/red-zone opportunities unavailable; retained null, not invented.", "FCS/NJCAA/FBS rows remain distinct; no fabricated conversion." ], "familiarity": "Bullock and Harrold return under second-year head coach Jerry Mack/OC Mitch Militello/TE coach Kyle Blocker; Munroe, Booker and Jesiolowski offseason newcomers sharing current2026practice and first5games. Munroe slot shift documented and Jesiolowski/Harrold already taking TE opportunities. No measured protection-call or pre-KSU relationship assumption.", "opportunity_change": "Booker established slot20catches/161 loses remaining-season opportunities; Munroe moved slot and Gary entered starting lineup Oct7, with Dean/Rogers rotation. Bullock prior primaryTE832/884TEsnaps; if still limited, Jesiolowski/Harrold cover TE routes/blocking. No exact future target-share forecast available.", "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated incremental point effect. Team baseline already includes postinjury games; do not subtract historical lost production again. Human overlay is separately authorized scenario, not calibrated statistical estimate." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Gerard Bullock Jr.", "Reed Jesiolowski", "Jamari Harrold" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Gerard Bullock Jr.", "status": "UNRESOLVED CURRENT; missed previous3games injured, listed backup on current depth" }, { "player": "Reed Jesiolowski", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Jamari Harrold", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "players": { "Zion Booker": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Western Carolina", "level": "FCS", "games": 8, "starts": null, "receptions": 39, "yards": 540, "td": 4, "yards_per_reception": 13.846153846153847 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Tulsa", "level": "FBS", "games": 8, "starts": 7, "receptions": 46, "yards": 418, "td": 2, "rush_attempts": 5, "rush_yards": 24, "yards_per_reception": 9.08695652173913 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "receptions": 20, "yards": 161, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 8.05 } ], "Brayden Munroe": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 12, "starts": null, "receptions": 37, "yards": 447, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 12.08108108108108 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 46, "yards": 696, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 15.130434782608695 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 5, "receptions": 19, "yards": 299, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 15.736842105263158 } ], "Gerard Bullock Jr.": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Tennessee State", "level": "FCS", "games": 14, "starts": null, "receptions": 27, "yards": 232, "td": 2, "yards_per_reception": 8.592592592592593 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 14, "starts": 14, "receptions": 23, "yards": 157, "td": 1, "snaps": 832, "yards_per_reception": 6.826086956521739 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "receptions": 1, "yards": 5, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 5.0 } ], "Reed Jesiolowski": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Southern Miss", "level": "FBS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 8, "yards": 98, "td": null, "yards_per_reception": 12.25 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northwest Mississippi CC", "level": "NJCAA", "games": 11, "starts": 11, "receptions": null, "yards": 348, "td": 4 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 5, "yards": 34, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 6.8 } ], "Jamari Harrold": [ { "season": 2024, "team": null, "level": "High school; not converted", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "college_opportunities": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 0, "receptions": 0, "yards": 0, "td": 0, "role": "Kickoff coverage; receiving table checked." }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 6, "yards": 63, "td": 1, "yards_per_reception": 10.5 } ] }, "sources": [ "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/zion-booker/14872", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/brayden-munroe/14899", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/gerard-bullock-jr-/14974", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/reed-jesiolowski/14917", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/jamari-harrold/14787", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2026", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2025", "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/ksuowls.com/documents/2026/10/12/2026_KSU_FB_Game_Notes__Missouri_State_.pdf" ], "source_caveats": [ "Munroe official bio cumulative totals internally inconsistent; use identified season rows without pooled career arithmetic.", "Some historical starts/routes/targets/drops/red-zone opportunities unavailable; retained null, not invented.", "FCS/NJCAA/FBS rows remain distinct; no fabricated conversion." ], "familiarity": "Bullock and Harrold return under second-year head coach Jerry Mack/OC Mitch Militello/TE coach Kyle Blocker; Munroe, Booker and Jesiolowski offseason newcomers sharing current2026practice and first5games. Munroe slot shift documented and Jesiolowski/Harrold already taking TE opportunities. No measured protection-call or pre-KSU relationship assumption.", "opportunity_change": "Booker established slot20catches/161 loses remaining-season opportunities; Munroe moved slot and Gary entered starting lineup Oct7, with Dean/Rogers rotation. Bullock prior primaryTE832/884TEsnaps; if still limited, Jesiolowski/Harrold cover TE routes/blocking. No exact future target-share forecast available.", "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated incremental point effect. Team baseline already includes postinjury games; do not subtract historical lost production again. Human overlay is separately authorized scenario, not calibrated statistical estimate." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "scenario_id": "ksu-booker-out", "incumbent": "Zion Booker", "conditional": false, "trigger": "Confirmed season-ending mainWR availability loss", "human_deduction": -3, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "comparison": { "players": { "Zion Booker": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Western Carolina", "level": "FCS", "games": 8, "starts": null, "receptions": 39, "yards": 540, "td": 4, "yards_per_reception": 13.846153846153847 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Tulsa", "level": "FBS", "games": 8, "starts": 7, "receptions": 46, "yards": 418, "td": 2, "rush_attempts": 5, "rush_yards": 24, "yards_per_reception": 9.08695652173913 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "receptions": 20, "yards": 161, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 8.05 } ], "Brayden Munroe": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 12, "starts": null, "receptions": 37, "yards": 447, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 12.08108108108108 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 46, "yards": 696, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 15.130434782608695 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 5, "receptions": 19, "yards": 299, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 15.736842105263158 } ], "Gerard Bullock Jr.": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Tennessee State", "level": "FCS", "games": 14, "starts": null, "receptions": 27, "yards": 232, "td": 2, "yards_per_reception": 8.592592592592593 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 14, "starts": 14, "receptions": 23, "yards": 157, "td": 1, "snaps": 832, "yards_per_reception": 6.826086956521739 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "receptions": 1, "yards": 5, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 5.0 } ], "Reed Jesiolowski": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Southern Miss", "level": "FBS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 8, "yards": 98, "td": null, "yards_per_reception": 12.25 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northwest Mississippi CC", "level": "NJCAA", "games": 11, "starts": 11, "receptions": null, "yards": 348, "td": 4 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 5, "yards": 34, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 6.8 } ], "Jamari Harrold": [ { "season": 2024, "team": null, "level": "High school; not converted", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "college_opportunities": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 0, "receptions": 0, "yards": 0, "td": 0, "role": "Kickoff coverage; receiving table checked." }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 6, "yards": 63, "td": 1, "yards_per_reception": 10.5 } ] }, "sources": [ "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/zion-booker/14872", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/brayden-munroe/14899", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/gerard-bullock-jr-/14974", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/reed-jesiolowski/14917", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/jamari-harrold/14787", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2026", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2025", "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/ksuowls.com/documents/2026/10/12/2026_KSU_FB_Game_Notes__Missouri_State_.pdf" ], "source_caveats": [ "Munroe official bio cumulative totals internally inconsistent; use identified season rows without pooled career arithmetic.", "Some historical starts/routes/targets/drops/red-zone opportunities unavailable; retained null, not invented.", "FCS/NJCAA/FBS rows remain distinct; no fabricated conversion." ], "familiarity": "Bullock and Harrold return under second-year head coach Jerry Mack/OC Mitch Militello/TE coach Kyle Blocker; Munroe, Booker and Jesiolowski offseason newcomers sharing current2026practice and first5games. Munroe slot shift documented and Jesiolowski/Harrold already taking TE opportunities. No measured protection-call or pre-KSU relationship assumption.", "opportunity_change": "Booker established slot20catches/161 loses remaining-season opportunities; Munroe moved slot and Gary entered starting lineup Oct7, with Dean/Rogers rotation. Bullock prior primaryTE832/884TEsnaps; if still limited, Jesiolowski/Harrold cover TE routes/blocking. No exact future target-share forecast available.", "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated incremental point effect. Team baseline already includes postinjury games; do not subtract historical lost production again. Human overlay is separately authorized scenario, not calibrated statistical estimate." }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] } }, "player": "Zion Booker", "state": "OUT / season-ending confirmed", "availability": "Season-ending OUT confirmed by current official notes", "replacement": [ "Brayden Munroe", "Dylan Gary", "Navelle Dean", "Javon Rogers" ], "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Brayden Munroe slot / Dylan Gary outside / remaining WR pool", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Booker established slot20catches/161 loses remaining-season opportunities; Munroe moved slot and Gary entered starting lineup Oct7, with Dean/Rogers rotation. Bullock prior primaryTE832/884TEsnaps; if still limited, Jesiolowski/Harrold cover TE routes/blocking. No exact future target-share forecast available.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] } } }, { "scenario_id": "ksu-bullock-unavailable-conditional", "incumbent": "Gerard Bullock Jr.", "conditional": true, "trigger": "Established primary receivingTE remains unavailable/materially limited and replacement workload", "human_deduction": -3, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "comparison": { "players": { "Zion Booker": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Western Carolina", "level": "FCS", "games": 8, "starts": null, "receptions": 39, "yards": 540, "td": 4, "yards_per_reception": 13.846153846153847 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Tulsa", "level": "FBS", "games": 8, "starts": 7, "receptions": 46, "yards": 418, "td": 2, "rush_attempts": 5, "rush_yards": 24, "yards_per_reception": 9.08695652173913 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "receptions": 20, "yards": 161, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 8.05 } ], "Brayden Munroe": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 12, "starts": null, "receptions": 37, "yards": 447, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 12.08108108108108 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northern Colorado", "level": "FCS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 46, "yards": 696, "td": 3, "yards_per_reception": 15.130434782608695 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 5, "receptions": 19, "yards": 299, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 15.736842105263158 } ], "Gerard Bullock Jr.": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Tennessee State", "level": "FCS", "games": 14, "starts": null, "receptions": 27, "yards": 232, "td": 2, "yards_per_reception": 8.592592592592593 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 14, "starts": 14, "receptions": 23, "yards": 157, "td": 1, "snaps": 832, "yards_per_reception": 6.826086956521739 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "receptions": 1, "yards": 5, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 5.0 } ], "Reed Jesiolowski": [ { "season": 2024, "team": "Southern Miss", "level": "FBS", "games": 10, "starts": null, "receptions": 8, "yards": 98, "td": null, "yards_per_reception": 12.25 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Northwest Mississippi CC", "level": "NJCAA", "games": 11, "starts": 11, "receptions": null, "yards": 348, "td": 4 }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 5, "yards": 34, "td": 0, "yards_per_reception": 6.8 } ], "Jamari Harrold": [ { "season": 2024, "team": null, "level": "High school; not converted", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "college_opportunities": 0 }, { "season": 2025, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 0, "receptions": 0, "yards": 0, "td": 0, "role": "Kickoff coverage; receiving table checked." }, { "season": 2026, "team": "Kennesaw State", "level": "FBS", "games": 5, "starts": 2, "receptions": 6, "yards": 63, "td": 1, "yards_per_reception": 10.5 } ] }, "sources": [ "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/zion-booker/14872", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/brayden-munroe/14899", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/gerard-bullock-jr-/14974", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/reed-jesiolowski/14917", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/roster/jamari-harrold/14787", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2026", "https://ksuowls.com/sports/football/stats/2025", "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/ksuowls.com/documents/2026/10/12/2026_KSU_FB_Game_Notes__Missouri_State_.pdf" ], "source_caveats": [ "Munroe official bio cumulative totals internally inconsistent; use identified season rows without pooled career arithmetic.", "Some historical starts/routes/targets/drops/red-zone opportunities unavailable; retained null, not invented.", "FCS/NJCAA/FBS rows remain distinct; no fabricated conversion." ], "familiarity": "Bullock and Harrold return under second-year head coach Jerry Mack/OC Mitch Militello/TE coach Kyle Blocker; Munroe, Booker and Jesiolowski offseason newcomers sharing current2026practice and first5games. Munroe slot shift documented and Jesiolowski/Harrold already taking TE opportunities. No measured protection-call or pre-KSU relationship assumption.", "opportunity_change": "Booker established slot20catches/161 loses remaining-season opportunities; Munroe moved slot and Gary entered starting lineup Oct7, with Dean/Rogers rotation. Bullock prior primaryTE832/884TEsnaps; if still limited, Jesiolowski/Harrold cover TE routes/blocking. No exact future target-share forecast available.", "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated incremental point effect. Team baseline already includes postinjury games; do not subtract historical lost production again. Human overlay is separately authorized scenario, not calibrated statistical estimate." }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] } }, "player": "Gerard Bullock Jr.", "state": "UNRESOLVED / conditional continued absence", "availability": "Conditional continued absence; not confirmed OUT", "replacement": [ "Reed Jesiolowski", "Jamari Harrold" ], "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Reed Jesiolowski / Jamari Harrold", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Booker established slot20catches/161 loses remaining-season opportunities; Munroe moved slot and Gary entered starting lineup Oct7, with Dean/Rogers rotation. Bullock prior primaryTE832/884TEsnaps; if still limited, Jesiolowski/Harrold cover TE routes/blocking. No exact future target-share forecast available.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] } } } ], "reference_lineup": "Current game6depth p22; starts p35; official current receiving statistics. Booker season-ending injury p11; Bullock missed last3games p12.", "official_depth_source": "https://dxbhsrqyrr690.cloudfront.net/sidearm.nextgen.sites/ksuowls.com/documents/2026/10/12/2026_KSU_FB_Game_Notes__Missouri_State_.pdf", "offensive_line": [ "JaDarious Lee", "Precious Ekeh", "Mateo Guevara", "Mike Wallace Jr.", "Nikola Milovac", "Darius Neals" ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "Booker confirmed; Bullock conditional", "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "overlap": "Booker/TE losses share passing opportunities and scoring drives. No independent drive/target conversion supports additive second3. Joint production scenario keeps one3-point passing-loss deduction, with separate isolatedTE case retained; this is overlap treatment, not a3-point cap. Both-absent additive-6 sensitivity retained as uncertainty bound, not selected production deduction.", "branches": [ { "name": "Booker out; Bullock returns or joint overlapping absence", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] } }, { "name": "Both absences; non-overlap adverse sensitivity only", "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 21.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 16.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] }, "interpretation": "Uncalibrated joint adverse endpoint for gate robustness, not claim two independent statistical effects." } ] }, "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / CONDITIONAL TE", "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Routine committee/QB OR not treated as injury. No verified in-season trade; offseason portal movement kept distinct." }, { "team": "Missouri State Bears", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Skyler Locklear", "Henry Belin IV", "Elijah Leonard" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Skyler Locklear", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Henry Belin IV", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Elijah Leonard", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Locklear starts first5; Belin23snaps andTD at WKU. QB OR reflects competition, not verified injury. Myers20catches419; Robinson19catches through4; RB Dubar/Green committee; Askren primary receivingTE and Hipp/Edwards reviewed.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Breezy Dubar", "Ramone Green Jr.", "Connor Lair", "King Davis" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Breezy Dubar", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Ramone Green Jr.", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Connor Lair", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "King Davis", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Locklear starts first5; Belin23snaps andTD at WKU. QB OR reflects competition, not verified injury. Myers20catches419; Robinson19catches through4; RB Dubar/Green committee; Askren primary receivingTE and Hipp/Edwards reviewed.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Isaiah Myers", "Jmariyae Robinson", "Mekhi Miller" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Isaiah Myers", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Jmariyae Robinson", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Mekhi Miller", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Locklear starts first5; Belin23snaps andTD at WKU. QB OR reflects competition, not verified injury. Myers20catches419; Robinson19catches through4; RB Dubar/Green committee; Askren primary receivingTE and Hipp/Edwards reviewed.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Jeron Askren", "Dillon Hipp", "Witt Edwards", "James Rexroat" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jeron Askren", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Dillon Hipp", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Witt Edwards", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "James Rexroat", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Locklear starts first5; Belin23snaps andTD at WKU. QB OR reflects competition, not verified injury. Myers20catches419; Robinson19catches through4; RB Dubar/Green committee; Askren primary receivingTE and Hipp/Edwards reviewed.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Skyler Locklear", "Henry Belin IV", "Elijah Leonard" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Skyler Locklear", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Henry Belin IV", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Elijah Leonard", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Locklear starts first5; Belin23snaps andTD at WKU. QB OR reflects competition, not verified injury. Myers20catches419; Robinson19catches through4; RB Dubar/Green committee; Askren primary receivingTE and Hipp/Edwards reviewed.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Breezy Dubar", "Ramone Green Jr.", "Connor Lair", "King Davis" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Breezy Dubar", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Ramone Green Jr.", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Connor Lair", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "King Davis", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Locklear starts first5; Belin23snaps andTD at WKU. QB OR reflects competition, not verified injury. Myers20catches419; Robinson19catches through4; RB Dubar/Green committee; Askren primary receivingTE and Hipp/Edwards reviewed.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Isaiah Myers", "Jmariyae Robinson", "Mekhi Miller" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Isaiah Myers", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Jmariyae Robinson", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Mekhi Miller", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Locklear starts first5; Belin23snaps andTD at WKU. QB OR reflects competition, not verified injury. Myers20catches419; Robinson19catches through4; RB Dubar/Green committee; Askren primary receivingTE and Hipp/Edwards reviewed.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Jeron Askren", "Dillon Hipp", "Witt Edwards", "James Rexroat" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jeron Askren", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Dillon Hipp", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Witt Edwards", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "James Rexroat", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Locklear starts first5; Belin23snaps andTD at WKU. QB OR reflects competition, not verified injury. Myers20catches419; Robinson19catches through4; RB Dubar/Green committee; Askren primary receivingTE and Hipp/Edwards reviewed.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "reference_lineup": "Current game6notes p3offensive depth and current individual stats; QB Locklear OR Belin.", "official_depth_source": "https://missouristatebears.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/Game_6_Notes_vs_KSU.pdf", "offensive_line": [ "King Large", "Matthew Greene", "Isaiah Villanueva", "Ryan Mitchell", "Logan Scrivner", "Makhete Gueye", "Sebastian Espinoza" ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "No qualifying trigger identified", "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "overlap": "No deductions stacked.", "branches": [] }, "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / NO TRIGGER", "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Routine committee/QB OR not treated as injury. No verified in-season trade; offseason portal movement kept distinct." } ], "release_gate": "Pending endpoint/stress/market validation", "decision": "No live promotion before parent freeze/prices and all gates", "offensive_line_review": [ { "team": "Kennesaw State Owls", "line": [ "JaDarious Lee", "Precious Ekeh", "Mateo Guevara", "Mike Wallace Jr.", "Nikola Milovac", "Darius Neals" ], "assessment": "Current chart and prior starts reviewed. KSU Precious Ekeh returns to listed startingLG after Neals Oct7 start; current limitation not confirmed. No fabricated increment." }, { "team": "Missouri State Bears", "line": [ "King Large", "Matthew Greene", "Isaiah Villanueva", "Ryan Mitchell", "Logan Scrivner", "Makhete Gueye", "Sebastian Espinoza" ], "assessment": "Current chart and prior starts reviewed. KSU Precious Ekeh returns to listed startingLG after Neals Oct7 start; current limitation not confirmed. No fabricated increment." } ], "defense_protection_inventory": "Official defensive depth/current statistics retained. KSU allowed5sacks through5; MissouriState LB Lloyd60tackles; WKU/Sam current defense statistics in game notes. No independent supported turnover/fieldposition/tempo score conversion; opponent score unchanged.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "KSU mainWR out, primaryTE unresolved", "detail": "Booker season-ending loss confirmed. Bullock prior3misses; current return not certified. Review production-3 plus baseline and possible separate-loss-6 sensitivity with ordinary gates.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ] }, { "event_id": "401871068", "identity": { "id": "401871068", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3647", "fullName": "Elliott T. Bowers Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Huntsville", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "98", "away_name": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2534", "home_name": "Sam Houston Bearkats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ] }, "teams": [ { "team": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers", "side": "away", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Brock Glenn", "Rodney Tisdale Jr.", "Caleb McMickle" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Brock Glenn", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Rodney Tisdale Jr.", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Caleb McMickle", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Allen13carries105/2TD last game; Stafford6catches72/TD; Howard3/61 despite reserve depth warrants receivingTE review. Two QBs changed starts across first6games; no official current injury cause established.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Ajay Allen", "LeKamren Meadows", "Jaden McGill", "Kalib Hicks" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Ajay Allen", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "LeKamren Meadows", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Jaden McGill", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Kalib Hicks", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Allen13carries105/2TD last game; Stafford6catches72/TD; Howard3/61 despite reserve depth warrants receivingTE review. Two QBs changed starts across first6games; no official current injury cause established.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Quincy Burroughs", "QuaVez Humphreys", "Jonathan Stafford Jr.", "Moussa Barry", "Cameron Flowers", "Zion Taylor" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Quincy Burroughs", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "QuaVez Humphreys", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Jonathan Stafford Jr.", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Moussa Barry", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Cameron Flowers", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Zion Taylor", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Allen13carries105/2TD last game; Stafford6catches72/TD; Howard3/61 despite reserve depth warrants receivingTE review. Two QBs changed starts across first6games; no official current injury cause established.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Coleson Arends", "CC Ezirim", "Lofton Howard", "Griffin Reimer" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Coleson Arends", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "CC Ezirim", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Lofton Howard", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Griffin Reimer", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Allen13carries105/2TD last game; Stafford6catches72/TD; Howard3/61 despite reserve depth warrants receivingTE review. Two QBs changed starts across first6games; no official current injury cause established.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Brock Glenn", "Rodney Tisdale Jr.", "Caleb McMickle" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Brock Glenn", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Rodney Tisdale Jr.", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Caleb McMickle", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Allen13carries105/2TD last game; Stafford6catches72/TD; Howard3/61 despite reserve depth warrants receivingTE review. Two QBs changed starts across first6games; no official current injury cause established.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Ajay Allen", "LeKamren Meadows", "Jaden McGill", "Kalib Hicks" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Ajay Allen", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "LeKamren Meadows", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Jaden McGill", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Kalib Hicks", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Allen13carries105/2TD last game; Stafford6catches72/TD; Howard3/61 despite reserve depth warrants receivingTE review. Two QBs changed starts across first6games; no official current injury cause established.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Quincy Burroughs", "QuaVez Humphreys", "Jonathan Stafford Jr.", "Moussa Barry", "Cameron Flowers", "Zion Taylor" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Quincy Burroughs", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "QuaVez Humphreys", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Jonathan Stafford Jr.", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Moussa Barry", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Cameron Flowers", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Zion Taylor", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Allen13carries105/2TD last game; Stafford6catches72/TD; Howard3/61 despite reserve depth warrants receivingTE review. Two QBs changed starts across first6games; no official current injury cause established.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Coleson Arends", "CC Ezirim", "Lofton Howard", "Griffin Reimer" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Coleson Arends", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "CC Ezirim", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Lofton Howard", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Griffin Reimer", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "Allen13carries105/2TD last game; Stafford6catches72/TD; Howard3/61 despite reserve depth warrants receivingTE review. Two QBs changed starts across first6games; no official current injury cause established.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "reference_lineup": "Current game7notes p6depth; game starts and individual current statistics. Glenn OR Tisdale; Glenn most recent start.", "official_depth_source": "https://gobearkats.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/WKU_Notes.pdf", "offensive_line": [ "Alex Lopez", "Nonso Omezi", "Alec Johnson", "Tyreek Major", "Rhett Larson", "Tai Ray" ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "No qualifying trigger identified", "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "overlap": "No deductions stacked.", "branches": [] }, "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / NO TRIGGER", "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Routine committee/QB OR not treated as injury. No verified in-season trade; offseason portal movement kept distinct." }, { "team": "Sam Houston Bearkats", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Landyn Locke", "Brett Holloway" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Landyn Locke", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Brett Holloway", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "McCaskill50carries201 plus11catches29; Dowdy11/42 at Liberty and14/57current, performance spark not documented injury. ONeill25catches through5games. Two true freshmanOL starters at Liberty increase protection uncertainty; no invented penalty.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Alton McCaskill", "Landan Coco Brown", "MJ Dowdy" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Alton McCaskill", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Landan Coco Brown", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "MJ Dowdy", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "McCaskill50carries201 plus11catches29; Dowdy11/42 at Liberty and14/57current, performance spark not documented injury. ONeill25catches through5games. Two true freshmanOL starters at Liberty increase protection uncertainty; no invented penalty.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Tim Burns Jr.", "Chris Reed", "Grady ONeill", "Kyan Berry-Johnson", "Kamari Maxwell", "Darrick Bledsoe III" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Tim Burns Jr.", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Chris Reed", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Grady ONeill", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Kyan Berry-Johnson", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Kamari Maxwell", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Darrick Bledsoe III", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "McCaskill50carries201 plus11catches29; Dowdy11/42 at Liberty and14/57current, performance spark not documented injury. ONeill25catches through5games. Two true freshmanOL starters at Liberty increase protection uncertainty; no invented penalty.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Matt Smith", "London Deyon" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Matt Smith", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "London Deyon", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "McCaskill50carries201 plus11catches29; Dowdy11/42 at Liberty and14/57current, performance spark not documented injury. ONeill25catches through5games. Two true freshmanOL starters at Liberty increase protection uncertainty; no invented penalty.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Landyn Locke", "Brett Holloway" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Landyn Locke", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Brett Holloway", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "McCaskill50carries201 plus11catches29; Dowdy11/42 at Liberty and14/57current, performance spark not documented injury. ONeill25catches through5games. Two true freshmanOL starters at Liberty increase protection uncertainty; no invented penalty.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Alton McCaskill", "Landan Coco Brown", "MJ Dowdy" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Alton McCaskill", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Landan Coco Brown", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "MJ Dowdy", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "McCaskill50carries201 plus11catches29; Dowdy11/42 at Liberty and14/57current, performance spark not documented injury. ONeill25catches through5games. Two true freshmanOL starters at Liberty increase protection uncertainty; no invented penalty.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Tim Burns Jr.", "Chris Reed", "Grady ONeill", "Kyan Berry-Johnson", "Kamari Maxwell", "Darrick Bledsoe III" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Tim Burns Jr.", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Chris Reed", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Grady ONeill", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Kyan Berry-Johnson", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Kamari Maxwell", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "Darrick Bledsoe III", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "McCaskill50carries201 plus11catches29; Dowdy11/42 at Liberty and14/57current, performance spark not documented injury. ONeill25catches through5games. Two true freshmanOL starters at Liberty increase protection uncertainty; no invented penalty.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Matt Smith", "London Deyon" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Matt Smith", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." }, { "player": "London Deyon", "status": "Reviewed official current notes/depth; no current unavailability established; not final lineup certification." } ], "comparisons": { "role_basis": "McCaskill50carries201 plus11catches29; Dowdy11/42 at Liberty and14/57current, performance spark not documented injury. ONeill25catches through5games. Two true freshmanOL starters at Liberty increase protection uncertainty; no invented penalty.", "two_season_comparison": "No supported availability trigger for this role. Official career/current notes retained; no invented deduction." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "reference_lineup": "Current game6notes p5depth and p6offensive role note/current stats.", "official_depth_source": "https://gobearkats.com/documents/download/2026/10/13/Game_6_vs_WKU.pdf", "offensive_line": [ "Myles Joseph", "Tre Williams", "Josiah Chenault", "Dennell Nix Jr.", "Graceson Spann" ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "No qualifying trigger identified", "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "overlap": "No deductions stacked.", "branches": [] }, "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / NO TRIGGER", "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Routine committee/QB OR not treated as injury. No verified in-season trade; offseason portal movement kept distinct." } ], "release_gate": "Pending endpoint/stress/market validation", "decision": "No live promotion before parent freeze/prices and all gates", "offensive_line_review": [ { "team": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers", "line": [ "Alex Lopez", "Nonso Omezi", "Alec Johnson", "Tyreek Major", "Rhett Larson", "Tai Ray" ], "assessment": "Official line reviewed; Sam two true freshmen are experience uncertainty, not automatic point deduction." }, { "team": "Sam Houston Bearkats", "line": [ "Myles Joseph", "Tre Williams", "Josiah Chenault", "Dennell Nix Jr.", "Graceson Spann" ], "assessment": "Official line reviewed; Sam two true freshmen are experience uncertainty, not automatic point deduction." } ], "defense_protection_inventory": "Official defensive depth/current statistics retained. KSU allowed5sacks through5; MissouriState LB Lloyd60tackles; WKU/Sam current defense statistics in game notes. No independent supported turnover/fieldposition/tempo score conversion; opponent score unchanged.", "risks": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "QB choices and college final availability", "detail": "Current official covered-role review establishes no unavailable starter. QB OR/rotations and Sam freshmanOL are documented context, not fabricated injury severity. Final availability report pending standard pregame timing.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ] } ], "trade_reviews": [], "trade_screen": { "status": "NO VERIFIED IN-SEASON TRADE IN CURRENT FOOTBALL SLATE", "date_eastern": "2026-10-14", "NFL": "No NFLgame current date.", "NCAA": "Four official current note/roster sets reviewed; identified portal arrivals occurred offseason. No two-party in-season trade verified.", "offensive_pathway": "No qualifying transaction; no trade delta applied.", "defensive_pathway": "No qualifying transaction; no automatic opponent-score effect.", "uncertainty": "Current-slate scope; not assertion about every league-wide transaction." }, "empty_slates": { "NFL": 0, "FCS": 0 }, "desks": { "Parker Fields": "Four official current teams plus targeted2-season/current comparisons", "Gideon Marsh": "All four baseline/scenario arithmetic verified" }, "nonblocking_limitations": [ "Unestimated incremental replacement effect; human overlay separately stated.", "Current CUSA final report due by3h before kickoff; early forecast does not certify game-day active status.", "Incomplete advanced routes/target/drop/protection histories explicit." ] }, "supplement": { "created_utc": "2026-10-14T10:47:34.535572+00:00", "price_requests": false, "status": "READY FOR PARENT FREEZE", "events": [ { "event_id": "401871054", "identity": { "id": "401871054", "date": "2026-10-14T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3878", "fullName": "Robert W. Plaster Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Springfield", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "338", "away_name": "Kennesaw State Owls", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2623", "home_name": "Missouri State Bears", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "home_margin": 0.3863636363636367, "total": 48.78146853146853, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market/stress gates and all retained applicable endpoints; no preselected tier", "production_assumption": "ConfirmedBooker availability-3; overlappingTE uncertainty retained separately", "conditional_base_branch": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 21.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "home_selection": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 45.78146853146853, "under_selection_total": 51.78146853146853 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "KSU unavailable primaryreceiver adverse branch6 total human sensitivity; no independent opponent-point uplift. Normal registered stress still applies.", "scenario_endpoints": [ { "name": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 27.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ] }, { "name": "Booker out / overlapping WR+TE production scenario", "score": [ 24.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ] }, { "name": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 21.197552447552447, 24.583916083916083 ], "human_deductions": [ -6, 0 ], "conditional": true } ], "stress_separation": "Apply ordinary registered adverse-case stress independently after these availability endpoints. Human6 is not the generic3stress allowance: it is a conditional sum of two isolated3availability assumptions for potentially distinct WR/TE workloads. Production uses overlap3 because lost passing drives can coincide; additive6 remains gate sensitivity, not confirmed BullockOUT or empirically supported effect. Do not count human3 twice inside6." }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "home_margin": 8.818096703377531, "total": 48.567494610666756, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market/stress gates and all retained applicable endpoints; no preselected tier", "production_assumption": "ConfirmedBooker availability-3; overlappingTE uncertainty retained separately", "conditional_base_branch": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 16.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "home_selection": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 45.567494610666756, "under_selection_total": 51.567494610666756 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "KSU unavailable primaryreceiver adverse branch6 total human sensitivity; no independent opponent-point uplift. Normal registered stress still applies.", "scenario_endpoints": [ { "name": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 22.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ] }, { "name": "Booker out / overlapping WR+TE production scenario", "score": [ 19.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ] }, { "name": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 16.874698953644614, 28.692795657022145 ], "human_deductions": [ -6, 0 ], "conditional": true } ], "stress_separation": "Apply ordinary registered adverse-case stress independently after these availability endpoints. Human6 is not the generic3stress allowance: it is a conditional sum of two isolated3availability assumptions for potentially distinct WR/TE workloads. Production uses overlap3 because lost passing drives can coincide; additive6 remains gate sensitivity, not confirmed BullockOUT or empirically supported effect. Do not count human3 twice inside6." }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "home_margin": -3.0224999999999973, "total": 50.14134615384616, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market/stress gates and all retained applicable endpoints; no preselected tier", "production_assumption": "ConfirmedBooker availability-3; overlappingTE uncertainty retained separately", "conditional_base_branch": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "home_selection": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 47.14134615384616, "under_selection_total": 53.14134615384616 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "KSU unavailable primaryreceiver adverse branch6 total human sensitivity; no independent opponent-point uplift. Normal registered stress still applies.", "scenario_endpoints": [ { "name": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ] }, { "name": "Booker out / overlapping WR+TE production scenario", "score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ] }, { "name": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deductions": [ -6, 0 ], "conditional": true } ], "stress_separation": "Apply ordinary registered adverse-case stress independently after these availability endpoints. Human6 is not the generic3stress allowance: it is a conditional sum of two isolated3availability assumptions for potentially distinct WR/TE workloads. Production uses overlap3 because lost passing drives can coincide; additive6 remains gate sensitivity, not confirmed BullockOUT or empirically supported effect. Do not count human3 twice inside6." }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "home_margin": -3.0224999999999973, "total": 50.14134615384616, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market/stress gates and all retained applicable endpoints; no preselected tier", "production_assumption": "ConfirmedBooker availability-3; overlappingTE uncertainty retained separately", "conditional_base_branch": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "home_selection": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 47.14134615384616, "under_selection_total": 53.14134615384616 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "KSU unavailable primaryreceiver adverse branch6 total human sensitivity; no independent opponent-point uplift. Normal registered stress still applies.", "scenario_endpoints": [ { "name": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ] }, { "name": "Booker out / overlapping WR+TE production scenario", "score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ] }, { "name": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "human_deductions": [ -6, 0 ], "conditional": true } ], "stress_separation": "Apply ordinary registered adverse-case stress independently after these availability endpoints. Human6 is not the generic3stress allowance: it is a conditional sum of two isolated3availability assumptions for potentially distinct WR/TE workloads. Production uses overlap3 because lost passing drives can coincide; additive6 remains gate sensitivity, not confirmed BullockOUT or empirically supported effect. Do not count human3 twice inside6." } }, "production_scenario": "BOOKER CONFIRMED -3 / TE CONDITIONAL OVERLAP", "scenario_choice_by_team": { "away": "Booker-3; Bullock isolated-3 and joint overlap/adverse endpoints", "home": "No trigger" }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "KSU mainWR out, primaryTE unresolved", "detail": "Booker season-ending loss confirmed. Bullock prior3misses; current return not certified. Review production-3 plus baseline and possible separate-loss-6 sensitivity with ordinary gates.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "KSU Booker season-ending mainWR absence confirmed; Munroe slot redistribution; Bullock primaryTE prior3injury misses remains conditional. Isolated3each, joint overlap3 plus adverse6sensitivity; no invented statistical effect.", "Gideon Marsh": "Registered baseline unchanged; ON/OFF identical; human overlay separated from unestimated statistical changes; overlap explicit." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json" }, { "event_id": "401871068", "identity": { "id": "401871068", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3647", "fullName": "Elliott T. Bowers Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Huntsville", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "98", "away_name": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2534", "home_name": "Sam Houston Bearkats", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "home_margin": -3.0833333333333357, "total": 53.92045454545455, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market/stress gates and all retained applicable endpoints; no preselected tier", "production_assumption": "No qualifying current absence established", "conditional_base_branch": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "home_selection": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 53.92045454545455, "under_selection_total": 53.92045454545455 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "No extra personnel points; standard model stress applies.", "scenario_endpoints": [ { "name": "No identified qualifying replacement", "score": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ] } ], "stress_separation": "No personnel endpoint beyond base; ordinary registered stress still applies." }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "home_margin": 2.939298127894787, "total": 52.1821019080473, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market/stress gates and all retained applicable endpoints; no preselected tier", "production_assumption": "No qualifying current absence established", "conditional_base_branch": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "home_selection": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 52.1821019080473, "under_selection_total": 52.1821019080473 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "No extra personnel points; standard model stress applies.", "scenario_endpoints": [ { "name": "No identified qualifying replacement", "score": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ] } ], "stress_separation": "No personnel endpoint beyond base; ordinary registered stress still applies." }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "home_margin": -6.067500000000006, "total": 55.27083333333334, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market/stress gates and all retained applicable endpoints; no preselected tier", "production_assumption": "No qualifying current absence established", "conditional_base_branch": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 55.27083333333334, "under_selection_total": 55.27083333333334 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "No extra personnel points; standard model stress applies.", "scenario_endpoints": [ { "name": "No identified qualifying replacement", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ] } ], "stress_separation": "No personnel endpoint beyond base; ordinary registered stress still applies." }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "home_margin": -6.067500000000006, "total": 55.27083333333334, "other_adjustments": [], "gate": "PENDING existing market/stress gates and all retained applicable endpoints; no preselected tier", "production_assumption": "No qualifying current absence established", "conditional_base_branch": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 55.27083333333334, "under_selection_total": 55.27083333333334 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "No extra personnel points; standard model stress applies.", "scenario_endpoints": [ { "name": "No identified qualifying replacement", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ] } ], "stress_separation": "No personnel endpoint beyond base; ordinary registered stress still applies." } }, "production_scenario": "NO TRIGGER", "scenario_choice_by_team": { "away": "No trigger", "home": "No trigger" }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "QB choices and college final availability", "detail": "Current official covered-role review establishes no unavailable starter. QB OR/rotations and Sam freshmanOL are documented context, not fabricated injury severity. Final availability report pending standard pregame timing.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "WKU Glenn/Tisdale OR is not a verified injury; Allen/receivers/Howard+Arends reviewed. Sam Locke/McCaskill+Brown+Dowdy and receiving roles reviewed; no qualifying availability deduction established.", "Gideon Marsh": "Registered baseline unchanged; ON/OFF identical; human overlay separated from unestimated statistical changes; overlap explicit." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json" } ] } }