{ "dateEastern": "2026-10-14", "created_utc": "2026-10-14T10:53:08.617317+00:00", "phase": "POSTFREEZE_MARKET_GATE_ONLY", "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "markets_captured_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:10.240294+00:00", "immutable_inputs": { "score-freeze.json": "5be754be9d02a18cbadf1e70113d2724ad3f4166feed2bfcef01dd65d74109c7", "market-snapshot-complete.json": "bb6efe76185e5b0da9548b1dbd4dd35165d202744ba4ea50dfcdf713c284b57d", "offensive\\event-team-reviews.json": "b6e6374f8e9840f5e27d6592d5495209bc1daf1ddabead7bf1003aa4e10858e3", "offensive\\mlb-pitching-and-bullpen-review.json": "ab225300a39d0da23f1477eea7832c9cc4d366e024f94cf71050a005084f8a1e", "offensive\\preprice-offensive-gates.json": "5513a6228fbbcd01c1272e679d35faeeb573081ca889bc1f7fa3bf754d693dcf", "offensive\\review-checksums.json": "6978e41df04ca9796f358599ced31f113c9ec7e0e9c1aa7b7e14ce6da15b3ae4" }, "policy": { "mlb_base_runline_and_total_floor": 1.0, "conservative_increment": 0.5, "adverse_runs": 1.0, "additional_event_specific_stress": "Frozen plausible single-run personnel/workload stress counted once; unestimated joint tail disclosed separately without duplicate charging.", "price_limit": "American strictly better than -400", "frozen_forecasts_changed": false, "NBA_NHL": "TRACKING_ONLY", "sources": [ "experimental-projects/Tighten-Up-Process/TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS.md", "experimental-projects/Tighten-Up-Process/SPORTS-PRICE-ELIGIBILITY-POLICY.md" ] }, "events": [ { "eventId": "401892504", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "away_name": "Montreal Canadiens", "home_name": "Washington Capitals", "date": "2026-10-14T23:30Z" }, "market": { "id": "401892504", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892504", "requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.993620+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.315095+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 185.0, "away_line_price": -225.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -130.0, "away_ml": 110.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Standing sport activation is absent. Available quotes do not activate wagering; seven completed games permit calibration review only." }, { "eventId": "401898404", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "Brooklyn Nets", "home_name": "Miami Heat", "date": "2026-10-14T23:30Z" }, "market": { "id": "401898404", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898404", "requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.993620+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.326436+00:00", "home_line": -7.5, "away_line": 7.5, "home_line_price": -115.0, "away_line_price": -105.0, "total": 232.5, "under_line": 232.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -310.0, "away_ml": 250.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -7.5, "average_total": 232.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Standing sport activation is absent. Available quotes do not activate wagering; seven completed games permit calibration review only." }, { "eventId": "401898405", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "Charlotte Hornets", "home_name": "Boston Celtics", "date": "2026-10-14T23:30Z" }, "market": { "id": "401898405", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898405", "requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.993620+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.252437+00:00", "home_line": -5.5, "away_line": 5.5, "home_line_price": -112.0, "away_line_price": -108.0, "total": 225.5, "under_line": 225.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -258.0, "away_ml": 210.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -5.5, "average_total": 225.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Standing sport activation is absent. Available quotes do not activate wagering; seven completed games permit calibration review only." }, { "eventId": "401898722", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "Phoenix Suns", "home_name": "San Antonio Spurs", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401898722", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898722", "requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.330439+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.546615+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 224.5, "under_line": 224.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -410.0, "away_ml": 320.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -10.5, "average_total": 224.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Standing sport activation is absent. Available quotes do not activate wagering; seven completed games permit calibration review only." }, { "eventId": "401901825", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "New Orleans Pelicans", "home_name": "Dallas Mavericks", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401901825", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901825", "requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.484125+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.763404+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 230.5, "under_line": 230.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -118.0, "away_ml": -102.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 230.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Standing sport activation is absent. Available quotes do not activate wagering; seven completed games permit calibration review only." }, { "eventId": "401908032", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "away_name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "home_name": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401908032", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908032", "requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.498739+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.729210+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 124.0, "away_line_price": -150.0, "total": 7.5, "under_line": 7.5, "over_price": -106.0, "under_price": -114.0, "home_ml": -180.0, "away_ml": 148.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 7.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true, "risks": [ { "id": "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both.", "resolution": "Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "One-run workload outcome stress once; do not add a second penalty for the same described risk.", "unresolved": true, "finding": "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both. Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ] }, { "id": "mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Ohtani rightbiceps/leftknee and Freeman rightknee lingering; Roberts explicitly confirms Ohtani starts. No new confirmed absence; possible diminished performance remains unquantified.", "resolution": "Same projected lineup plus explicit OhtaniDH-DePaula and Freeman1B-Muncy contingency branches; two priorseasons and current hand splits retained.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Separate downside toLADoffense/total from starter/bullpen downside. Do not translate knee symptoms to an invented run coefficient. New material confirmed limitation requires sporting revision.", "unresolved": true, "finding": "Ohtani rightbiceps/leftknee and Freeman rightknee lingering; Roberts explicitly confirms Ohtani starts. No new confirmed absence; possible diminished performance remains unquantified. Same projected lineup plus explicit OhtaniDH-DePaula and Freeman1B-Muncy contingency branches; two priorseasons and current hand splits retained.", "markets": [ "total" ], "market_scope_reason": "Frozen pathway is diminished Dodgers offense from Ohtani/Freeman limitations, adverse to Over and favorable to selected Milwaukee +1.5. It is not counted as a third adverse risk against Milwaukee. A new unreviewed material availability change still triggers a sporting revision." }, { "id": "mlb-normal-platoon", "severity": "LOW", "facts": "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries.", "resolution": "ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.", "effect_estimate": null, "unresolved": false, "finding": "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries. ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ] }, { "id": "mlb-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Do not certify replacementrobustness from unestimated effects; compare market-specific supported descriptive buffers with explicit limitation.", "unresolved": true, "finding": "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable. Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim.", "markets": [ "run_line", "total" ] }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "ClassicMIL4.3472-LAD4.4989; PrimaryMIL3.6930-LAD3.5614; TightenUpMIL4.4198-LAD4.3796. Tiny winner margins and opposing directions. Totals8.8462/7.2544/8.7994.", "resolution": "Preserve disagreement; never average into fifthforecast. Winner not robust to one-run scenario; separate spread/total evaluation afterfreeze.", "unresolved": true, "finding": "ClassicMIL4.3472-LAD4.4989; PrimaryMIL3.6930-LAD3.5614; TightenUpMIL4.4198-LAD4.3796. Tiny winner margins and opposing directions. Totals8.8462/7.2544/8.7994. Preserve disagreement; never average into fifthforecast. Winner not robust to one-run scenario; separate spread/total evaluation afterfreeze.", "markets": [ "moneyline", "total" ], "market_scope_reason": "Winner directions differ and Primary is below 7.5 while Classic/Tighten Up are above. All four models favor Milwaukee +1.5; no run-line direction disagreement is counted." } ], "frozen_preprice_risk_register": [ { "id": "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Gasser small postseason sample; Snell shoulder/elbow/groinlimited season and5walks in prior3.2IPstart. MILUribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason appearances; LAD7of9relievers usedGame2. October13offday helps both.", "resolution": "Currentprobable starters plus actual pitcher/bullpen histories retained. No source confirms an essential active reliever unavailable.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "One-run workload outcome stress once; do not add a second penalty for the same described risk." }, { "id": "mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Ohtani rightbiceps/leftknee and Freeman rightknee lingering; Roberts explicitly confirms Ohtani starts. No new confirmed absence; possible diminished performance remains unquantified.", "resolution": "Same projected lineup plus explicit OhtaniDH-DePaula and Freeman1B-Muncy contingency branches; two priorseasons and current hand splits retained.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Separate downside toLADoffense/total from starter/bullpen downside. Do not translate knee symptoms to an invented run coefficient. New material confirmed limitation requires sporting revision." }, { "id": "mlb-normal-platoon", "severity": "LOW", "facts": "Both opposing starters left-handed; MILprojectedLara/Ortiz replaceFrelick/Hamilton, LADHernandez/Rojas replaceMuncy/Edman. Yelich managerplan restofseries.", "resolution": "ProjectedslotPA and conditionalalternates retained; normal platoon not fresh injury deduction.", "effect_estimate": null }, { "id": "mlb-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Playerweighted exposure inside aggregate reference and validated runconversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Registered base means retained, adjusted score null; no zeroeffect or causal calibration claim.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Do not certify replacementrobustness from unestimated effects; compare market-specific supported descriptive buffers with explicit limitation." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "ClassicMIL4.3472-LAD4.4989; PrimaryMIL3.6930-LAD3.5614; TightenUpMIL4.4198-LAD4.3796. Tiny winner margins and opposing directions. Totals8.8462/7.2544/8.7994.", "resolution": "Preserve disagreement; never average into fifthforecast. Winner not robust to one-run scenario; separate spread/total evaluation afterfreeze." } ], "risk_severity_note": "Frozen severities unchanged. Market-specific directional scope yields two unresolved medium risks for Milwaukee +1.5, four for the total. No new high severity, extra fixed run penalty, or postprice threshold.", "models": { "Classic": { "score_away_home": [ 4.347241512345679, 4.498919753086419 ], "home_margin": 0.15167824074073977, "total": 8.846161265432098, "conservative_mode": false, "provisional": true, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.3483217592592602, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.34832175925926023, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -150.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_home_margin": 1.1516782407407398 }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.346161265432098, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.346161265432098, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 4, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations", "mlb-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Over", "line": 7.5, "price": -106.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration. 4 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.846161265432098 }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.38546255506607924, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.6145374449339207, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 5, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "Frozen validated model probability unavailable. All score winner margins are below0.16run and reverse under one-run adverse movement; point means do not establish a probability edge." }, "calibration_note": "No numeric player overlay applied; actual effect remains unestimated. Gate arithmetic is not probability calibration." }, "Primary": { "score_away_home": [ 3.692957291874722, 3.561411963565656 ], "home_margin": -0.13154532830906618, "total": 7.254369255440378, "conservative_mode": false, "provisional": true, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.6315453283090662, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.6315453283090662, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -150.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_home_margin": 0.8684546716909338 }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 0.2456307445596222, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.7543692554403778, "same_side_after_one_run": false, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": false, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 3, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Under", "line": 7.5, "price": -114.0, "reason": "Base buffer is below the frozen configuration floor. Classic/Primary remains provisional and is not an authorized live publication configuration. 3 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 8.254369255440377 }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.38546255506607924, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.6145374449339207, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 5, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "Frozen validated model probability unavailable. All score winner margins are below0.16run and reverse under one-run adverse movement; point means do not establish a probability edge." }, "calibration_note": "No numeric player overlay applied; actual effect remains unestimated. Gate arithmetic is not probability calibration." }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "score_away_home": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "home_margin": -0.04012345679012341, "total": 8.799382716049383, "conservative_mode": true, "provisional": false, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -150.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Conservative ON disallows unresolved medium availability risk and prohibits Free Picks.", "stressed_home_margin": 0.9598765432098766 }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.299382716049383, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.29938271604938294, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 4, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations", "mlb-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Over", "line": 7.5, "price": -106.0, "reason": "Base buffer is below the frozen configuration floor. 4 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383 }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.38546255506607924, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.6145374449339207, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 7, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "Frozen validated model probability unavailable. All score winner margins are below0.16run and reverse under one-run adverse movement; point means do not establish a probability edge." }, "calibration_note": "No numeric player overlay applied; actual effect remains unestimated. Gate arithmetic is not probability calibration." }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "score_away_home": [ 4.419753086419753, 4.37962962962963 ], "home_margin": -0.04012345679012341, "total": 8.799382716049383, "conservative_mode": false, "provisional": false, "run_line": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion" ], "promotion_allowed": true, "maximum_tier": "Free Pick", "final_state": "TIER ELIGIBLE", "production_decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY", "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers", "line": 1.5, "price": -150.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. Two unresolved medium risks (workload and reference conversion) require downgrade. Pick of the Day and Bonus permit at most one, so optional Free Pick only. This is descriptive gate eligibility, not calibrated positive expected value.", "stressed_home_margin": 0.9598765432098766 }, "total_gate": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.299382716049383, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.29938271604938294, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run case is applied once. Simultaneous diminished hitters and pitching failure may exceed it; that unestimated tail is not a second invented fixed penalty, a new veto, or a certified bound.", "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 4, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations", "mlb-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "promotion_allowed": false, "maximum_tier": null, "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "selection": "Over", "line": 7.5, "price": -106.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, one-run adverse test applied once, and price filter pass. 4 unresolved adverse medium risks apply to this total direction: mlb-starter-bullpen-duration, mlb-lingering-hitter-limitations, mlb-reference-conversion, mlb-model-disagreement. Three or more make this market ineligible. Dodgers hitter limitations are adverse to Over, but are not counted again against Under.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383 }, "moneyline": { "no_vig_away_probability": 0.38546255506607924, "no_vig_home_probability": 0.6145374449339207, "minimum_edge_probability_points": 5, "model_probability": null, "model_probability_edge": null, "stressed_probability_edge": null, "decision": "PASS", "reason": "Frozen validated model probability unavailable. All score winner margins are below0.16run and reverse under one-run adverse movement; point means do not establish a probability edge." }, "calibration_note": "No numeric player overlay applied; actual effect remains unestimated. Gate arithmetic is not probability calibration." } }, "decision": "RUN_LINE_ELIGIBLE_FREE_ONLY / TOTAL_PASS", "state": "MARKET_SPECIFIC_GATES_COMPLETE", "reason": "Tighten Up OFF Milwaukee +1.5 (-150) has1.540123run base cushion and0.540123 after one-run adverse stress. Two adverse medium risks allow only optional Free Pick. Over7.5 (-106) survives OFF arithmetic but has four medium risks and is PASS. ON is blocked by medium availability risk; Classic/Primary remain provisional.", "pitching_review": [ { "event_id": 849811, "team": "Milwaukee Brewers", "probable_starter": { "id": 688107, "fullName": "Robert Gasser", "link": "/api/v1/people/688107" }, "pitch_hand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&date=2026-10-14&hydrate=probablePitcher", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:46:20.917610+00:00", "starter_history": [ { "group": { "displayName": "pitching" }, "season": "2024", "stat": { "age": 25, "gamesPlayed": 5, "gamesStarted": 5, "groundOuts": 31, "airOuts": 35, "runs": 9, "doubles": 1, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 2, "strikeOuts": 16, "baseOnBalls": 1, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 28, "hitByPitch": 3, "avg": ".264", "atBats": 106, "obp": ".283", "slg": ".330", "ops": ".613", "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 2, "stolenBasePercentage": "1.000", "caughtStealingPercentage": ".000", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 3, "numberOfPitches": 399, "era": "2.57", "inningsPitched": "28.0", "wins": 2, "losses": 0, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 8, "whip": "1.04", "battersFaced": 114, "outs": 84, "gamesPitched": 5, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "strikes": 283, "strikePercentage": ".710", "hitBatsmen": 3, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "totalBases": 35, "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.89", "winPercentage": "1.000", "pitchesPerInning": "14.25", "gamesFinished": 0, "strikeoutWalkRatio": "16.00", "strikeoutsPer9Inn": "5.14", "walksPer9Inn": "0.32", "hitsPer9Inn": "9.00", "runsScoredPer9": "2.89", "homeRunsPer9": "0.64", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 1, "sacFlies": 3 }, "team": { "id": 158, "name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/158" }, "player": { "id": 688107, "fullName": "Robert Gasser", "link": "/api/v1/people/688107" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R" }, { "group": { "displayName": "pitching" }, "season": "2025", "stat": { "age": 26, "gamesPlayed": 2, "gamesStarted": 2, "groundOuts": 4, "airOuts": 9, "runs": 6, "doubles": 1, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 1, "strikeOuts": 5, "baseOnBalls": 4, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 5, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".217", "atBats": 23, "obp": ".379", "slg": ".391", "ops": ".770", "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "caughtStealingPercentage": ".---", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 102, "era": "3.18", "inningsPitched": "5.2", "wins": 0, "losses": 2, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 2, "whip": "1.59", "battersFaced": 29, "outs": 17, "gamesPitched": 2, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "strikes": 58, "strikePercentage": ".570", "hitBatsmen": 2, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "totalBases": 9, "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.44", "winPercentage": ".000", "pitchesPerInning": "18.00", "gamesFinished": 0, "strikeoutWalkRatio": "1.25", "strikeoutsPer9Inn": "7.94", "walksPer9Inn": "6.35", "hitsPer9Inn": "7.94", "runsScoredPer9": "9.53", "homeRunsPer9": "1.59", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0 }, "team": { "id": 158, "name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/158" }, "player": { "id": 688107, "fullName": "Robert Gasser", "link": "/api/v1/people/688107" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R" }, { "group": { "displayName": "pitching" }, "season": "2026", "stat": { "age": 27, "gamesPlayed": 21, "gamesStarted": 20, "groundOuts": 83, "airOuts": 137, "runs": 49, "doubles": 23, "triples": 1, "homeRuns": 15, "strikeOuts": 103, "baseOnBalls": 35, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 95, "hitByPitch": 10, "avg": ".229", "atBats": 415, "obp": ".304", "slg": ".398", "ops": ".702", "caughtStealing": 1, "stolenBases": 6, "stolenBasePercentage": ".857", "caughtStealingPercentage": ".143", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 6, "numberOfPitches": 1817, "era": "3.87", "inningsPitched": "109.1", "wins": 5, "losses": 5, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 47, "whip": "1.19", "battersFaced": 463, "outs": 328, "gamesPitched": 21, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "strikes": 1200, "strikePercentage": ".660", "hitBatsmen": 10, "balks": 1, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "totalBases": 165, "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.61", "winPercentage": ".500", "pitchesPerInning": "16.62", "gamesFinished": 0, "strikeoutWalkRatio": "2.94", "strikeoutsPer9Inn": "8.48", "walksPer9Inn": "2.88", "hitsPer9Inn": "7.82", "runsScoredPer9": "4.03", "homeRunsPer9": "1.23", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 2, "sacFlies": 1 }, "team": { "id": 158, "name": "Milwaukee Brewers", "link": "/api/v1/teams/158" }, "player": { "id": 688107, "fullName": "Robert Gasser", "link": "/api/v1/people/688107" }, "league": { "id": 104, "name": "National League", "link": "/api/v1/league/104" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R" } ], "last_actual_appearance": { "date": "2026-10-08T02:00:00Z", "event_id": 849827, "stage": "D", "player_id": 688107, "player": "Robert Gasser", "stats": { "summary": "4.0 IP, ER, 3 K, BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "gamesStarted": 1, "flyOuts": 1, "groundOuts": 5, "airOuts": 5, "runs": 1, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 1, "strikeOuts": 3, "baseOnBalls": 1, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 3, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 16, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "numberOfPitches": 56, "inningsPitched": "4.0", "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 1, "battersFaced": 17, "outs": 12, "gamesPitched": 1, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "pitchesThrown": 56, "balls": 16, "strikes": 40, "strikePercentage": ".710", "hitBatsmen": 0, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "rbi": 1, "gamesFinished": 0, "runsScoredPer9": "2.25", "homeRunsPer9": "2.25", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "passedBall": 0, "popOuts": 2, "lineOuts": 2 } }, "recent_staff_appearances": [ { "date": "2026-09-22T22:40:00Z", "event_id": 823412, "stage": "R", "player_id": 690986, "player": "Kyle Harrison", "stats": { "summary": "1.0 IP, ER, K, 0 BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "gamesStarted": 0, "flyOuts": 1, "groundOuts": 1, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 1, "doubles": 1, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 3, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 6, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "numberOfPitches": 14, "inningsPitched": "1.0", "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 1, "battersFaced": 6, "outs": 3, "gamesPitched": 1, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "pitchesThrown": 14, "balls": 2, "strikes": 12, "strikePercentage": ".860", "hitBatsmen": 0, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "rbi": 1, "gamesFinished": 0, "runsScoredPer9": "9.00", "homeRunsPer9": "0.00", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "passedBall": 0, "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "date": "2026-09-22T22:40:00Z", "event_id": 823412, "stage": "R", "player_id": 676467, "player": "Colton Gordon", "stats": { "note": "(L, 0-1)", "summary": "5.0 IP, 2 ER, K, BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "gamesStarted": 0, "flyOuts": 3, "groundOuts": 9, "airOuts": 5, "runs": 3, "doubles": 1, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 1, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 4, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 19, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "numberOfPitches": 70, "inningsPitched": "5.0", "wins": 0, "losses": 1, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 2, "battersFaced": 20, "outs": 15, "gamesPitched": 1, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "pitchesThrown": 70, "balls": 25, "strikes": 45, "strikePercentage": ".640", "hitBatsmen": 0, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "rbi": 2, "gamesFinished": 1, "runsScoredPer9": "5.40", "homeRunsPer9": "0.00", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "passedBall": 0, "popOuts": 2, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "date": "2026-09-22T22:40:00Z", "event_id": 823412, "stage": "R", "player_id": 669160, "player": "Dustin May", "stats": { "summary": "2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K, 2 BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "gamesStarted": 1, "flyOuts": 2, "groundOuts": 2, "airOuts": 2, "runs": 2, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 1, "strikeOuts": 2, "baseOnBalls": 2, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 7, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 1, "stolenBasePercentage": "1.000", "numberOfPitches": 36, "inningsPitched": "2.0", "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 2, "battersFaced": 9, "outs": 6, "gamesPitched": 1, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "pitchesThrown": 36, "balls": 14, "strikes": 22, "strikePercentage": ".610", "hitBatsmen": 0, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "rbi": 2, "gamesFinished": 0, "runsScoredPer9": "9.00", "homeRunsPer9": "4.50", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "passedBall": 0, "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "date": "2026-09-23T22:40:00Z", "event_id": 823410, "stage": "R", "player_id": 701656, "player": "Logan Henderson", "stats": { "note": "(W, 11-3)", "summary": "5.0 IP, ER, 3 K, 3 BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "gamesStarted": 1, "flyOuts": 5, "groundOuts": 4, "airOuts": 8, "runs": 1, "doubles": 2, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 3, "baseOnBalls": 3, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 4, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 19, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "numberOfPitches": 87, "inningsPitched": "5.0", "wins": 1, "losses": 0, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 1, "battersFaced": 22, "outs": 15, "gamesPitched": 1, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "pitchesThrown": 87, "balls": 36, "strikes": 51, "strikePercentage": ".590", "hitBatsmen": 0, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "rbi": 1, "gamesFinished": 0, "runsScoredPer9": "1.80", "homeRunsPer9": "0.00", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "passedBall": 0, "popOuts": 2, "lineOuts": 1 } }, { "date": "2026-09-23T22:40:00Z", "event_id": 823410, "stage": "R", "player_id": 682842, "player": "Abner Uribe", "stats": { "note": "(H, 23)", "summary": "1.0 IP, 0 ER, K, 0 BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "gamesStarted": 0, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 2, "airOuts": 0, "runs": 0, "doubles": 1, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 4, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "numberOfPitches": 14, "inningsPitched": "1.0", "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 1, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 0, "battersFaced": 4, "outs": 3, "gamesPitched": 1, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "pitchesThrown": 14, "balls": 6, "strikes": 8, "strikePercentage": ".570", "hitBatsmen": 0, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "rbi": 0, "gamesFinished": 0, "runsScoredPer9": "0.00", "homeRunsPer9": "0.00", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "passedBall": 0, "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "date": "2026-09-23T22:40:00Z", "event_id": 823410, "stage": "R", "player_id": 669084, "player": "DL Hall", "stats": { "note": "(H, 6)", "summary": "2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "gamesStarted": 0, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 3, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 2, "baseOnBalls": 1, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 1, "hitByPitch": 1, "atBats": 7, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "numberOfPitches": 36, "inningsPitched": "2.0", "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 1, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 0, "battersFaced": 9, "outs": 6, "gamesPitched": 1, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "pitchesThrown": 36, "balls": 15, "strikes": 21, "strikePercentage": ".580", "hitBatsmen": 1, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "rbi": 0, "gamesFinished": 0, "runsScoredPer9": "0.00", "homeRunsPer9": "0.00", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "passedBall": 0, "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 1 } }, { "date": "2026-09-23T22:40:00Z", "event_id": 823410, "stage": "R", "player_id": 656730, "player": "Trevor Megill", "stats": { "note": "(S, 30)", "summary": "1.0 IP, 0 ER, K, 0 BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "gamesStarted": 0, "flyOuts": 0, "groundOuts": 1, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 0, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 3, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "numberOfPitches": 11, "inningsPitched": "1.0", "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "saves": 1, "saveOpportunities": 1, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 0, "battersFaced": 3, "outs": 3, "gamesPitched": 1, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "pitchesThrown": 11, "balls": 4, "strikes": 7, "strikePercentage": ".640", "hitBatsmen": 0, "balks": 0, 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"player_id": 669160, "player": "Dustin May", "stats": { "summary": "1.0 IP, 0 ER, K, 0 BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "gamesStarted": 0, "flyOuts": 1, "groundOuts": 1, "airOuts": 1, "runs": 0, "doubles": 0, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 0, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 0, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 2, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 0, "stolenBasePercentage": ".---", "numberOfPitches": 14, "inningsPitched": "1.0", "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 0, "battersFaced": 3, "outs": 3, "gamesPitched": 1, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "pitchesThrown": 14, "balls": 6, "strikes": 8, "strikePercentage": ".570", "hitBatsmen": 0, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "rbi": 1, "gamesFinished": 0, "runsScoredPer9": "0.00", "homeRunsPer9": "0.00", "inheritedRunners": 1, "inheritedRunnersScored": 1, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 1, "passedBall": 0, "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } } ], "health_context": "Gasser current late-season improvement separate from tiny postseason sample; bullpen Uribe6of6/Ashby5of6postseason workloads, October13off-day helps. May relief/start role uncertain forGame4, not assumed unavailable today.", "numeric_adjustment": null, "source_article": "https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-dodgers-nl-championship-series-game-3-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup", "gate": "Descriptive workload risk; no automatic fatigue coefficient or hitter-overlay double count.", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908032" }, { "event_id": 849811, "team": "Los Angeles Dodgers", "probable_starter": { "id": 605483, "fullName": "Blake Snell", "link": "/api/v1/people/605483" }, "pitch_hand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&date=2026-10-14&hydrate=probablePitcher", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:46:20.917610+00:00", "starter_history": [ { "group": { "displayName": "pitching" }, "season": "2024", "stat": { "age": 31, "gamesPlayed": 20, "gamesStarted": 20, "groundOuts": 74, "airOuts": 89, "runs": 38, "doubles": 13, "triples": 1, "homeRuns": 6, "strikeOuts": 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"sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "passedBall": 0, "popOuts": 0, "lineOuts": 0 } }, { "date": "2026-10-12T21:00:00Z", "event_id": 849812, "stage": "L", "player_id": 808967, "player": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "stats": { "summary": "2.2 IP, 3 ER, K, 2 BB", "gamesPlayed": 1, "gamesStarted": 1, "flyOuts": 2, "groundOuts": 3, "airOuts": 4, "runs": 3, "doubles": 1, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 0, "strikeOuts": 1, "baseOnBalls": 2, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 4, "hitByPitch": 0, "atBats": 12, "caughtStealing": 0, "stolenBases": 1, "stolenBasePercentage": "1.000", "numberOfPitches": 75, "inningsPitched": "2.2", "wins": 0, "losses": 0, "saves": 0, "saveOpportunities": 0, "holds": 0, "blownSaves": 0, "earnedRuns": 3, "battersFaced": 14, "outs": 8, "gamesPitched": 1, "completeGames": 0, "shutouts": 0, "pitchesThrown": 75, "balls": 29, "strikes": 46, "strikePercentage": ".610", "hitBatsmen": 0, "balks": 0, "wildPitches": 0, "pickoffs": 0, "rbi": 3, "gamesFinished": 0, "runsScoredPer9": "10.13", "homeRunsPer9": "0.00", "inheritedRunners": 0, "inheritedRunnersScored": 0, "catchersInterference": 0, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "passedBall": 0, "popOuts": 1, "lineOuts": 1 } } ], "health_context": "Snell limited season by shoulder/elbow/groin; five walks and3.2IP previous postseason start. Seven of nine relievers usedGame2, October13offday helps. Diaz highleverage option; Treinen unlikely postseason, Klein depth. No confirmed essential active reliever newly unavailable.", "numeric_adjustment": null, "source_article": "https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-dodgers-nl-championship-series-game-3-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup", "gate": "Descriptive workload risk; no automatic fatigue coefficient or hitter-overlay double count.", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908032" } ], "sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849812/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/roster/active", "https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/brewers-dodgers-nl-championship-series-game-3-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup" ] }, { "eventId": "401908942", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "Chicago Bulls", "home_name": "Milwaukee Bucks", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401908942", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908942", "requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.525141+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.696275+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 231.5, "under_line": 231.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": 110.0, "away_ml": -130.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 231.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Standing sport activation is absent. Available quotes do not activate wagering; seven completed games permit calibration review only." }, { "eventId": "401914125", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "Detroit Pistons", "home_name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "date": "2026-10-15T00:00Z" }, "market": { "id": "401914125", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914125", "requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.546615+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.713859+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -118.0, "away_line_price": -102.0, "total": 227.5, "under_line": 227.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -110.0, "away_ml": -110.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 227.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Standing sport activation is absent. Available quotes do not activate wagering; seven completed games permit calibration review only." }, { "eventId": "401892505", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "away_name": "Dallas Stars", "home_name": "Colorado Avalanche", "date": "2026-10-15T00:30Z" }, "market": { "id": "401892505", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892505", "requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.551730+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.721859+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 164.0, "away_line_price": -198.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -135.0, "under_price": 114.0, "home_ml": -148.0, "away_ml": 124.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Standing sport activation is absent. Available quotes do not activate wagering; seven completed games permit calibration review only." }, { "eventId": "401918011", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "away_name": "Denver Nuggets", "home_name": "LA Clippers", "date": "2026-10-15T02:30Z" }, "market": { "id": "401918011", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401918011", "requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.787459+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.968955+00:00", "home_line": 2.5, "away_line": -2.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 223.5, "under_line": 223.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": 120.0, "away_ml": -142.0, "draw_ml": null, "moneyline_scope": "Game winner", "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 2.5, "average_total": 223.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "market_missing": false, "website_excluded": false, "research_record_retained": true, "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "state": "TRACKING_ONLY", "reason": "Standing sport activation is absent. Available quotes do not activate wagering; seven completed games permit calibration review only." } ], "final_primary_recheck": { "checked_utc": "2026-10-14T10:51:57.926192+00:00", "phase": "POSTFREEZE_PRIMARY_AVAILABILITY_RECHECK", "checks": { "Ohtani_starts_confirmed": true, "Freeman_lingering_knee": true, "Brewers_active_no_injury": true, "Johnston_no_travel": true, "Makar_current_return_unannounced": true, "Colorado_recall_unidentified": true }, "material_change_requiring_new_freeze": false, "scope": "Official MLB FAQ and current schedule/box, NHL recap/status/trade register. No new price request. Unannounced roles remain conditional.", "freeze_sha256": "5be754be9d02a18cbadf1e70113d2724ad3f4166feed2bfcef01dd65d74109c7", "source_failures": [] }, "qa": { "event_count": 10, "MLB_count": 1, "tracking_count": 9, "frozen_inputs_rehashed": true, "price_source": "Single-provider DraftKings via ESPN; not broad market consensus", "risk_assessment": "Frozen severity retained with explicitly directional scopes. Two-medium downgrade and three-or-more-medium PASS apply.", "package_semantics": "Completed PASS decisions do not inherently block packaging; provisional/tracking status and unestimated numerical effects must stay visible." } }