{ "created_utc": "2026-10-14T10:53:19.076000+00:00", "freeze_sha256": "5be754be9d02a18cbadf1e70113d2724ad3f4166feed2bfcef01dd65d74109c7", "freeze_unchanged": true, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-14T10:49:52.172689+00:00", "price_capture_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:10.240294+00:00", "quote_path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-14-Research\\market-snapshot-complete.json", "price_requested_by_agent": false, "independent_reviewer": "Independent football desk", "count": 8, "decisions_detail": [ { "event_id": "401871054", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871054", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.992619+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.260805+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": -3.0, "home_line": 3.0, "pick": "Kennesaw State Owls -3", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 0.0224999999999973, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": -2.9775000000000027, "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.9775000000000027, "worst_stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003, "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 0.0224999999999973, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.0224999999999973, "adverse_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.9775000000000027 }, { "branch": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 3.0224999999999973, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.0224999999999973, "adverse_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.0224999999999973 }, { "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -2.9775000000000027, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027, "adverse_score": [ 23.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "KSU mainWR out, primaryTE unresolved", "detail": "Booker season-ending loss confirmed. Bullock prior3misses; current return not certified. Review production-3 plus baseline and possible separate-loss-6 sensitivity with ordinary gates.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual Bullock TE availability remains unresolved; Booker season-ending OUT remains established." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -5.977500000000003, "worst_case": { "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -2.9775000000000027, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027, "adverse_score": [ 23.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 0.0224999999999973, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.0224999999999973, "adverse_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.9775000000000027 }, { "branch": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 3.0224999999999973, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.0224999999999973, "adverse_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.0224999999999973 }, { "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -2.9775000000000027, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027, "adverse_score": [ 23.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "home_selection": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 47.14134615384616, "under_selection_total": 53.14134615384616 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401871054", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871054", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.992619+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.260805+00:00", "selection_side": "under", "line": 52.5, "home_line": 3.0, "pick": "Under 52.5", "price": -115.0, "canonical_buffer": 2.3586538461538424, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": -0.6413461538461576, "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.6413461538461576, "worst_stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576, "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 2.3586538461538424, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3586538461538424, "adverse_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.6413461538461576 }, { "branch": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -0.6413461538461576, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576, "adverse_score": [ 32.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576 }, { "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 5.358653846153842, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.358653846153842, "adverse_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.3586538461538424 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "KSU mainWR out, primaryTE unresolved", "detail": "Booker season-ending loss confirmed. Bullock prior3misses; current return not certified. Review production-3 plus baseline and possible separate-loss-6 sensitivity with ordinary gates.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual Bullock TE availability remains unresolved; Booker season-ending OUT remains established." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -3.6413461538461576, "worst_case": { "branch": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -0.6413461538461576, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576, "adverse_score": [ 32.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 2.3586538461538424, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3586538461538424, "adverse_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.6413461538461576 }, { "branch": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -0.6413461538461576, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576, "adverse_score": [ 32.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576 }, { "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 5.358653846153842, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.358653846153842, "adverse_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.3586538461538424 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "home_selection": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 47.14134615384616, "under_selection_total": 53.14134615384616 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401871054", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871054", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.992619+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.260805+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": -3.0, "home_line": 3.0, "pick": "Kennesaw State Owls -3", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 0.0224999999999973, "required_buffer": 3, "minimum_branch_buffer": -2.9775000000000027, "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.9775000000000027, "worst_stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003, "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 0.0224999999999973, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.0224999999999973, "adverse_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.9775000000000027 }, { "branch": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 3.0224999999999973, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.0224999999999973, "adverse_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.0224999999999973 }, { "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -2.9775000000000027, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027, "adverse_score": [ 23.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "KSU mainWR out, primaryTE unresolved", "detail": "Booker season-ending loss confirmed. Bullock prior3misses; current return not certified. Review production-3 plus baseline and possible separate-loss-6 sensitivity with ordinary gates.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual Bullock TE availability remains unresolved; Booker season-ending OUT remains established." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -5.977500000000003, "worst_case": { "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -2.9775000000000027, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027, "adverse_score": [ 23.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 0.0224999999999973, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.0224999999999973, "adverse_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.9775000000000027 }, { "branch": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 3.0224999999999973, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.0224999999999973, "adverse_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.0224999999999973 }, { "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -2.9775000000000027, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.9775000000000027, "adverse_score": [ 23.581923076923076, 26.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.977500000000003 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "home_selection": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 47.14134615384616, "under_selection_total": 53.14134615384616 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401871054", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "Kennesaw State Owls at Missouri State Bears", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871054", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:08.992619+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.260805+00:00", "selection_side": "under", "line": 52.5, "home_line": 3.0, "pick": "Under 52.5", "price": -115.0, "canonical_buffer": 2.3586538461538424, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": -0.6413461538461576, "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.6413461538461576, "worst_stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576, "base_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 2.3586538461538424, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3586538461538424, "adverse_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.6413461538461576 }, { "branch": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -0.6413461538461576, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576, "adverse_score": [ 32.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576 }, { "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 5.358653846153842, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.358653846153842, "adverse_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.3586538461538424 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "KSU mainWR out, primaryTE unresolved", "detail": "Booker season-ending loss confirmed. Bullock prior3misses; current return not certified. Review production-3 plus baseline and possible separate-loss-6 sensitivity with ordinary gates.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; Actual Bullock TE availability remains unresolved; Booker season-ending OUT remains established." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -3.6413461538461576, "worst_case": { "branch": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -0.6413461538461576, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576, "adverse_score": [ 32.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 2.3586538461538424, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3586538461538424, "adverse_score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.6413461538461576 }, { "branch": "statistical baseline comparator", "score": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": -0.6413461538461576, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.6413461538461576, "adverse_score": [ 32.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.6413461538461576 }, { "branch": "Booker out plus Bullock unavailable distinct-loss adverse sensitivity", "score": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "buffer": 5.358653846153842, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.358653846153842, "adverse_score": [ 26.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.3586538461538424 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 23.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ], "home_selection": [ 29.581923076923076, 23.55942307692308 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 47.14134615384616, "under_selection_total": 53.14134615384616 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401871068", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871068", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.321114+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.535836+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": -1.5, "home_line": 1.5, "pick": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -1.5", "price": -115.0, "canonical_buffer": 4.567500000000006, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.567500000000006, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.567500000000006, "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006, "base_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 4.567500000000006, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006, "adverse_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 27.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "QB choices and college final availability", "detail": "Current official covered-role review establishes no unavailable starter. QB OR/rotations and Sam freshmanOL are documented context, not fabricated injury severity. Final availability report pending standard pregame timing.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Winner-flipping opponent-adjusted baseline and conservative opponent offense", "detail": "Primary frozen score favors SamHouston2.9393; TU current matchup opponent28.9833 and Primary opponent27.5607 undermine TUWKUfavorite cushion. No evidence resolves opposing capability estimates. This is supported event-specific model/input disagreement, not a blanket unanimity requirement.", "markets": [ "spread" ], "resolved": false, "source": "score-freeze.json game401871068 models Primary/Classic/TightenUp inputs", "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections5 and7; high risk could flip winner/crossline/erase more than halfedge and favorite must survive conservative opponentoffense.", "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen Primary complete independent score", "score": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "buffer": -4.439298127894787, "purpose": "Preprice independently fitted opponent-adjusted baseline projects opposite winner; not a new score.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -7.439298127894787, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 9.006798127894793, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen Primary opponent offense, TU own offense held fixed", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 27.560700017971044 ], "buffer": 1.6084666486956287, "purpose": "Conservative opponent-offense gate diagnostic; no fifth forecast or model averaging.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -1.3915333513043713, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9590333513043774, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen TU current-season opponent matchup component, TU own offense held fixed", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 28.983333333333334 ], "buffer": 0.1858333333333384, "purpose": "Existing current capability input supports higher SamHouston offense than prior-weighted baseline. Adverse case, not replacement of registered mean.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -2.8141666666666616, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 4.381666666666668, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen Classic complete independent score", "score": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "buffer": 1.5833333333333357, "purpose": "Independent rate baseline cushion below required3/4floors corroborates margin uncertainty.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -1.4166666666666643, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9841666666666704, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true } ], "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Unresolved HIGH: frozen Primary baseline flips winner and captured spread direction", "Favorite fails conservative opponent-offense cases using frozen Primary and current-season matchup inputs" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.567500000000006, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 4.567500000000006, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006, "adverse_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 27.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 4.567500000000006, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006, "adverse_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 27.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 55.27083333333334, "under_selection_total": 55.27083333333334 }, "calibration": "Numerical availability/stress eligibility superseded by explicit high-risk policy gate. No tier or opposite selection promoted.", "prior_numerical_decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE", "conservative_opponent_offense_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen Primary complete independent score", "score": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "buffer": -4.439298127894787, "purpose": "Preprice independently fitted opponent-adjusted baseline projects opposite winner; not a new score.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -7.439298127894787, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 9.006798127894793, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen Primary opponent offense, TU own offense held fixed", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 27.560700017971044 ], "buffer": 1.6084666486956287, "purpose": "Conservative opponent-offense gate diagnostic; no fifth forecast or model averaging.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -1.3915333513043713, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9590333513043774, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen TU current-season opponent matchup component, TU own offense held fixed", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 28.983333333333334 ], "buffer": 0.1858333333333384, "purpose": "Existing current capability input supports higher SamHouston offense than prior-weighted baseline. Adverse case, not replacement of registered mean.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -2.8141666666666616, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 4.381666666666668, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen Classic complete independent score", "score": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "buffer": 1.5833333333333357, "purpose": "Independent rate baseline cushion below required3/4floors corroborates margin uncertainty.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -1.4166666666666643, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9841666666666704, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true } ], "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-14T10:53:19.076000+00:00" }, { "event_id": "401871068", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871068", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.321114+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.535836+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 52.5, "home_line": 1.5, "pick": "Over 52.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 2.770833333333343, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": 2.770833333333343, "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.770833333333343, "worst_stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572, "base_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 2.770833333333343, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343, "adverse_score": [ 27.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572 } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "QB choices and college final availability", "detail": "Current official covered-role review establishes no unavailable starter. QB OR/rotations and Sam freshmanOL are documented context, not fabricated injury severity. Final availability report pending standard pregame timing.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -0.2291666666666572, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 2.770833333333343, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343, "adverse_score": [ 27.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 2.770833333333343, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343, "adverse_score": [ 27.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 55.27083333333334, "under_selection_total": 55.27083333333334 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, { "event_id": "401871068", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871068", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.321114+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.535836+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": -1.5, "home_line": 1.5, "pick": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -1.5", "price": -115.0, "canonical_buffer": 4.567500000000006, "required_buffer": 3, "minimum_branch_buffer": 4.567500000000006, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.567500000000006, "worst_stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006, "base_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 4.567500000000006, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006, "adverse_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 27.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "QB choices and college final availability", "detail": "Current official covered-role review establishes no unavailable starter. QB OR/rotations and Sam freshmanOL are documented context, not fabricated injury severity. Final availability report pending standard pregame timing.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Winner-flipping opponent-adjusted baseline and conservative opponent offense", "detail": "Primary frozen score favors SamHouston2.9393; TU current matchup opponent28.9833 and Primary opponent27.5607 undermine TUWKUfavorite cushion. No evidence resolves opposing capability estimates. This is supported event-specific model/input disagreement, not a blanket unanimity requirement.", "markets": [ "spread" ], "resolved": false, "source": "score-freeze.json game401871068 models Primary/Classic/TightenUp inputs", "policy": "TIGHTEN-UP-PRODUCTION-STANDARDS sections5 and7; high risk could flip winner/crossline/erase more than halfedge and favorite must survive conservative opponentoffense.", "adverse_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen Primary complete independent score", "score": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "buffer": -4.439298127894787, "purpose": "Preprice independently fitted opponent-adjusted baseline projects opposite winner; not a new score.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -7.439298127894787, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 9.006798127894793, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen Primary opponent offense, TU own offense held fixed", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 27.560700017971044 ], "buffer": 1.6084666486956287, "purpose": "Conservative opponent-offense gate diagnostic; no fifth forecast or model averaging.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -1.3915333513043713, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9590333513043774, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen TU current-season opponent matchup component, TU own offense held fixed", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 28.983333333333334 ], "buffer": 0.1858333333333384, "purpose": "Existing current capability input supports higher SamHouston offense than prior-weighted baseline. Adverse case, not replacement of registered mean.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -2.8141666666666616, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 4.381666666666668, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen Classic complete independent score", "score": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "buffer": 1.5833333333333357, "purpose": "Independent rate baseline cushion below required3/4floors corroborates margin uncertainty.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -1.4166666666666643, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9841666666666704, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true } ], "postfreeze_interpretation_only": true } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Unresolved HIGH: frozen Primary baseline flips winner and captured spread direction", "Favorite fails conservative opponent-offense cases using frozen Primary and current-season matchup inputs" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.567500000000006, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 4.567500000000006, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006, "adverse_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 27.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 4.567500000000006, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.567500000000006, "adverse_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 27.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.567500000000006 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 55.27083333333334, "under_selection_total": 55.27083333333334 }, "calibration": "Numerical availability/stress eligibility superseded by explicit high-risk policy gate. No tier or opposite selection promoted.", "prior_numerical_decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE", "conservative_opponent_offense_cases": [ { "name": "Frozen Primary complete independent score", "score": [ 24.621401890076257, 27.560700017971044 ], "buffer": -4.439298127894787, "purpose": "Preprice independently fitted opponent-adjusted baseline projects opposite winner; not a new score.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -7.439298127894787, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 9.006798127894793, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen Primary opponent offense, TU own offense held fixed", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 27.560700017971044 ], "buffer": 1.6084666486956287, "purpose": "Conservative opponent-offense gate diagnostic; no fifth forecast or model averaging.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -1.3915333513043713, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9590333513043774, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen TU current-season opponent matchup component, TU own offense held fixed", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 28.983333333333334 ], "buffer": 0.1858333333333384, "purpose": "Existing current capability input supports higher SamHouston offense than prior-weighted baseline. Adverse case, not replacement of registered mean.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -2.8141666666666616, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 4.381666666666668, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true }, { "name": "Frozen Classic complete independent score", "score": [ 28.50189393939394, 25.418560606060606 ], "buffer": 1.5833333333333357, "purpose": "Independent rate baseline cushion below required3/4floors corroborates margin uncertainty.", "ordinary_adverse_points": 3, "stressed_buffer": -1.4166666666666643, "edge_erased_vs_TU": 2.9841666666666704, "derived_only_from_frozen_values": true } ], "policy_reviewed_utc": "2026-10-14T10:53:19.076000+00:00" }, { "event_id": "401871068", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Sam Houston Bearkats", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871068", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.321114+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-14T10:50:09.535836+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 52.5, "home_line": 1.5, "pick": "Over 52.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 2.770833333333343, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 2.770833333333343, "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.770833333333343, "worst_stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572, "base_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 2.770833333333343, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343, "adverse_score": [ 27.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572 } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "QB choices and college final availability", "detail": "Current official covered-role review establishes no unavailable starter. QB OR/rotations and Sam freshmanOL are documented context, not fabricated injury severity. Final availability report pending standard pregame timing.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -0.2291666666666572, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 2.770833333333343, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343, "adverse_score": [ 27.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/availability", "score": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "buffer": 2.770833333333343, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.770833333333343, "adverse_score": [ 27.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.2291666666666572 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 30.669166666666673, 24.601666666666667 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 55.27083333333334, "under_selection_total": 55.27083333333334 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } ], "rankings": { "ON": [], "OFF": [] }, "extra_quote_handling": [], "risk_assessment_note": "Corrected synthesis omission: modeldesk recorded opposing forecast before freeze, but football risk register did not carry it into tier eligibility. New timestamped postprice interpretation applies existing policy to unchanged frozen evidence. No score, source, policy, price or prefreeze record edited.", "board_scope": "Current2NCAAFevents, independent spread/total decisions for ON/OFF; not an all-sport ranking.", "validation": { "all8_unique": true, "all_prices_after_freeze": true, "score_checksum_unchanged": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "all8_policy_final_pass": true, "supported_opponent_case_crosses_after_stress": true }, "supersedes": "postprice-tightenup-gates-final.json", "supersedes_scope": "Football final tier eligibility only; prior numeric arithmetic preserved and valid within its narrower availability endpoint scope." }