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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9631630642318147, 3.201248898812138 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9631630642318147, 3.201248898812138 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9631630642318147, 3.201248898812138 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13, "official_team_name": "Florida Panthers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29, "official_team_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.030485, 5.0304850000000005 ], "home": [ 1.1707299999999998, 5.17073 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.252691743102873, 3.3210150578950386 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.252691743102873, 3.3210150578950386 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.252691743102873, 3.3210150578950386 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7, "official_team_name": "Buffalo Sabres" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.40243, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 8, "official_team_name": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2560900000000004, 5.25609 ], "home": [ 1.164625, 5.164625 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 4.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020092, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 3, 4 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020092, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 3, 4 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892491", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892491", "away": "Washington Capitals", "home": "Carolina Hurricanes", "startTime": "6:45 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-192) / -1.5 (+160)", "ml": "+136 / -162", "total": "6.5; O +105 / U -125", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/washington-capitals-carolina-hurricanes-401892491-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892491", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.115373+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9217524841915083, 3.4071906052393857 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9217524841915083, 3.4071906052393857 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9217524841915083, 3.4071906052393857 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.207317073170732, 2.975609756097561 ], "current_rates": [ 3.4, 2.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 3.6097560975609757, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.857142857142857, 2.4285714285714284 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.18292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 15, "official_team_name": "Washington Capitals" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12, "official_team_name": "Carolina Hurricanes" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.912195746817774, 2.9952153662991385 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.912195746817774, 2.9952153662991385 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.912195746817774, 2.9952153662991385 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8231649999999999, 4.8231649999999995 ], "home": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55, "official_team_name": "Seattle Kraken" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4, "official_team_name": "Philadelphia Flyers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8231649999999999, 4.8231649999999995 ], "home": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55, "official_team_name": "Seattle Kraken" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4, "official_team_name": "Philadelphia Flyers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8231649999999999, 4.8231649999999995 ], "home": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020094, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 3, 2 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020094, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 3, 2 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401898403", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898403", "away": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "home": "Orlando Magic", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (-110) / +1.5 (-110)", "ml": "-122 / +102", "total": "229.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 117.5 / 115.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/cleveland-cavaliers-orlando-magic-401898403-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898403", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.428691+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.8170731707317, 117.07926829268294 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.8170731707317, 117.07926829268294 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.8170731707317, 117.07926829268294 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 119.52439024390245, 115.41463414634147 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 115.7439024390244, 115.10975609756098 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.20365246437761, 113.5884636448988 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.20365246437761, 113.5884636448988 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.20365246437761, 113.5884636448988 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2792, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "908b352170b64d5da6773996ab99d15522ad83b83d62bcef1698642fdf619d5b" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.695368619799016, "mean_margin_error": 14.866714897441717, "mean_total_error": 10.858078193211853, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.51219, "pa": 115.414635 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.743904, "pa": 115.10976 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.51219, "pa": 115.414635 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.743904, "pa": 115.10976 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "adjustedScore": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898403", "away": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "home": "Orlando Magic", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Cleveland Cavaliers 116, Orlando Magic 132", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (-110) / +1.5 (-110)", "ml": "-122 / +102", "total": "229.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 117.5 / 115.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/cleveland-cavaliers-orlando-magic-401898403-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898403", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.428691+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.8170731707317, 117.07926829268294 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.8170731707317, 117.07926829268294 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.8170731707317, 117.07926829268294 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 119.52439024390245, 115.41463414634147 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 115.7439024390244, 115.10975609756098 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.20365246437761, 113.5884636448988 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.20365246437761, 113.5884636448988 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.20365246437761, 113.5884636448988 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2792, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "908b352170b64d5da6773996ab99d15522ad83b83d62bcef1698642fdf619d5b" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.695368619799016, "mean_margin_error": 14.866714897441717, "mean_total_error": 10.858078193211853, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.51219, "pa": 115.414635 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.743904, "pa": 115.10976 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.51219, "pa": 115.414635 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.743904, "pa": 115.10976 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.310975, 137.31097499999998 ], "home": [ 95.57926950000001, 135.5792695 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "adjustedScore": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 116.0, 132.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612753/schedule", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:39:14.382812+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612753/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:39:14.382812+00:00", "scores": [ 116, 132 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 13 vs CLE W 116 - 132" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612753/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:39:14.382812+00:00", "scores": [ 116, 132 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 13 vs CLE W 116 - 132" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401908944", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401908944", "away": "New York Knicks", "home": "Toronto Raptors", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10.5 (-110) / -10.5 (-110)", "ml": "+340 / -440", "total": "218.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 114.0 / 112.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/new-york-knicks-toronto-raptors-401908944-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.338828+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.45121951219512, 110.1219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.63414634146342, 111.8048780487805 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2792, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "908b352170b64d5da6773996ab99d15522ad83b83d62bcef1698642fdf619d5b" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.695368619799016, "mean_margin_error": 14.866714897441717, "mean_total_error": 10.858078193211853, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.45122, "pa": 110.12195 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.45122, "pa": 110.12195 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "adjustedScore": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401908944", "away": "New York Knicks", "home": "Toronto Raptors", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "New York Knicks 98, Toronto Raptors 148", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10.5 (-110) / -10.5 (-110)", "ml": "+340 / -440", "total": "218.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 114.0 / 112.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/new-york-knicks-toronto-raptors-401908944-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.338828+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.45121951219512, 110.1219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.63414634146342, 111.8048780487805 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2792, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "908b352170b64d5da6773996ab99d15522ad83b83d62bcef1698642fdf619d5b" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.695368619799016, "mean_margin_error": 14.866714897441717, "mean_total_error": 10.858078193211853, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.45122, "pa": 110.12195 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.45122, "pa": 110.12195 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "adjustedScore": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 98.0, 148.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612761/schedule", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:39:14.761833+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612761/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:39:14.761833+00:00", "scores": [ 98, 148 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 13 vs NYK W 98 - 148" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612761/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:39:14.761833+00:00", "scores": [ 98, 148 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 13 vs NYK W 98 - 148" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401928737", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401928737", "away": "Aline Pereira", "home": "Smilla Sundell", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "+475 / -725", "total": "2.5; O -110 / U -120", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/aline-pereira-smilla-sundell-401928737-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401928737", "away": "Aline Pereira", "home": "Smilla Sundell", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Smilla Sundell defeats Aline Pereira via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "+475 / -725", "total": "2.5; O -110 / U -120", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/aline-pereira-smilla-sundell-401928737-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "result": "Smilla Sundell defeats Aline Pereira via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)", "status": "Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "result": "Smilla Sundell defeats Aline Pereira via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)", "status": "Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401928738", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401928738", "away": "Will Rentz", "home": "Luis Francischinelli", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "+205 / -245", "total": "1.5; O +230 / U -290", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/will-rentz-luis-francischinelli-401928738-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401928738", "away": "Will Rentz", "home": "Luis Francischinelli", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Luis Francischinelli defeats Will Rentz via TKO (punches) \u2013 Round 1, 2:18", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "+205 / -245", "total": "1.5; O +230 / U -290", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/will-rentz-luis-francischinelli-401928738-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "result": "Luis Francischinelli defeats Will Rentz via TKO (punches) \u2013 Round 1, 2:18", "status": "Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "result": "Luis Francischinelli defeats Will Rentz via TKO (punches) \u2013 Round 1, 2:18", "status": "Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401928739", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401928739", "away": "Davi Cabral", "home": "Douglas da Lapa", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "+140 / -170", "total": "1.5; O +105 / U -135", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/davi-cabral-douglas-da-lapa-401928739-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401928739", "away": "Davi Cabral", "home": "Douglas da Lapa", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Douglas da Lapa defeats Davi Cabral via TKO (punches) \u2013 Round 3, 0:19", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "+140 / -170", "total": "1.5; O +105 / U -135", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/davi-cabral-douglas-da-lapa-401928739-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "result": "Douglas da Lapa defeats Davi Cabral via TKO (punches) \u2013 Round 3, 0:19", "status": "Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "result": "Douglas da Lapa defeats Davi Cabral via TKO (punches) \u2013 Round 3, 0:19", "status": "Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401928740", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401928740", "away": "Jason Asher", "home": "Greg Foster", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-195 / +165", "total": "1.5; O -110 / U -120", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/jason-asher-greg-foster-401928740-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401928740", "away": "Jason Asher", "home": "Greg Foster", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Greg Foster defeats Jason Asher via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-195 / +165", "total": "1.5; O -110 / U -120", "workingScore": "Comparable baseline unavailable", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/jason-asher-greg-foster-401928740-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "result": "Greg Foster defeats Jason Asher via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)", "status": "Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/dana-whites-contender-series-season-10-week-10-results", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:44:02.751258+00:00", "result": "Greg Foster defeats Jason Asher via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)", "status": "Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892493", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892493", "away": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "home": "New York Rangers", "startTime": "7:15 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+154) / +1.5 (-185)", "ml": "-162 / +136", "total": "5.5; O -135 / U +114", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.5 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/tampa-bay-lightning-new-york-rangers-401892493-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892493", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.566070+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.5365853658536586, 2.817073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 3.2, 2.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 2.902439024390244, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.2857142857142856, 1.8571428571428572 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14, "official_team_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3, "official_team_name": "New York Rangers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14, "official_team_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3, "official_team_name": "New York Rangers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892493", "away": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "home": "New York Rangers", "startTime": "7:15 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 4", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+154) / +1.5 (-185)", "ml": "-162 / +136", "total": "5.5; O -135 / U +114", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.5 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/tampa-bay-lightning-new-york-rangers-401892493-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892493", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.566070+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.5365853658536586, 2.817073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 3.2, 2.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 2.902439024390244, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.2857142857142856, 1.8571428571428572 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14, "official_team_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3, "official_team_name": "New York Rangers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14, "official_team_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3, "official_team_name": "New York Rangers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 4.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020095, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 1, 4 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020095, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 1, 4 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892494", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892494", "away": "St. Louis Blues", "home": "Ottawa Senators", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-270) / -1.5 (+220)", "ml": "+100 / -120", "total": "5.5; O -122 / U +102", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/st-louis-blues-ottawa-senators-401892494-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892494", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.525620+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6914446529080673, 3.347861163227017 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6914446529080673, 3.347861163227017 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6914446529080673, 3.347861163227017 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.817073170731707, 3.1463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 2.8, 3.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.3902439024390243, 3 ], "current_rates": [ 3.1666666666666665, 2 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8963350000000001, 4.8963350000000005 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8963350000000001, 4.8963350000000005 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19, "official_team_name": "St. Louis Blues" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8963350000000001, 4.8963350000000005 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19, "official_team_name": "St. Louis Blues" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8963350000000001, 4.8963350000000005 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 7.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020096, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 7, 2 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020096, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 7, 2 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892495", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892495", "away": "Vancouver Canucks", "home": "New York Islanders", "startTime": "7:45 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-142) / -1.5 (+120)", "ml": "+180 / -218", "total": "6.5; O +114 / U -135", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 2.5 / 3.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/vancouver-canucks-new-york-islanders-401892495-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892495", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.563935+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7556639566395664, 3.632014453477868 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7556639566395664, 3.632014453477868 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7556639566395664, 3.632014453477868 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7207028107691307, 3.574030202556501 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7207028107691307, 3.574030202556501 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7207028107691307, 3.574030202556501 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.9691358024691357, 4.006172839506172 ], "current_rates": [ 4.185185185185185, 4.117283950617284 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.407407407407407, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.54320987654321, 4.012345679012346 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.791208526234568, "mean_margin_error": 3.582417052469136, "mean_total_error": 1.8725405092592604, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4952, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "312bdce7842f44eff1b03313a5dabbae7462b6adf4f0fa31a249ddc18dd24fdf" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.086240437705544, "mean_margin_error": 3.596715499244071, "mean_total_error": 3.617779816683591, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.7978395061728394, "mean_margin_error": 3.5956790123456788, "mean_total_error": 1.8858024691358022, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.7978395061728394, "mean_margin_error": 3.5956790123456788, "mean_total_error": 1.8858024691358022, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "selectedMarketKind": "spread", "odds": -199, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "MLB", "competition": "MLB", "eventId": "401908024", "away": "Cleveland Guardians", "home": "Tampa Bay Rays", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "Cleveland +1.5 (-199)", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Free Pick", "tier": "Free Pick", "status": "loss", "final": "Cleveland Guardians 1, Tampa Bay Rays 3", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-199) / -1.5 (+163)", "ml": "+114 / -137", "total": "7; O +102 / U -122", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 4.0 / 4.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/cleveland-guardians-tampa-bay-rays-401908024-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908024", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.668361+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.9691358024691357, 4.006172839506172 ], "current_rates": [ 4.185185185185185, 4.117283950617284 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.407407407407407, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.54320987654321, 4.012345679012346 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.791208526234568, "mean_margin_error": 3.582417052469136, "mean_total_error": 1.8725405092592604, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.2789419407735076, 3.6434934765336107 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2789419407735076, 3.6434934765336107 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2789419407735076, 3.6434934765336107 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4952, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "312bdce7842f44eff1b03313a5dabbae7462b6adf4f0fa31a249ddc18dd24fdf" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.086240437705544, "mean_margin_error": 3.596715499244071, "mean_total_error": 3.617779816683591, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.7978395061728394, "mean_margin_error": 3.5956790123456788, "mean_total_error": 1.8858024691358022, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.7978395061728394, "mean_margin_error": 3.5956790123456788, "mean_total_error": 1.8858024691358022, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "selectedMarketKind": "spread", "odds": -199, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "LOSS", "result": "LOSS", "resultSource": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-13&endDate=2026-10-14", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.600360+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-13&endDate=2026-10-14", "official_event_id": 849813, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.600360+00:00", "scores": [ 1, 3 ], "status": "Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-13&endDate=2026-10-14", "official_event_id": 849813, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.600360+00:00", "scores": [ 1, 3 ], "status": "Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401908621", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401908621", "away": "Indiana Pacers", "home": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+6.5 (-105) / -6.5 (-115)", "ml": "+225 / -278", "total": "228.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 110.0 / 119.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/indiana-pacers-oklahoma-city-thunder-401908621-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908621", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.699423+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 108.65243902439025, 121.21951219512195 ], "adjusted_score": [ 108.65243902439025, 121.21951219512195 ], "conditional_score": [ 108.65243902439025, 121.21951219512195 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 112.42682926829268, 120.41463414634147 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 119.02439024390245, 107.8780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.15244, 130.15244 ], "home": [ 99.71951250000001, 139.7195125 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 108.64022039575111, 120.74902875453085 ], "adjusted_score": [ 108.64022039575111, 120.74902875453085 ], "conditional_score": [ 108.64022039575111, 120.74902875453085 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2792, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "908b352170b64d5da6773996ab99d15522ad83b83d62bcef1698642fdf619d5b" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.695368619799016, "mean_margin_error": 14.866714897441717, "mean_total_error": 10.858078193211853, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.15244, 130.15244 ], "home": [ 99.71951250000001, 139.7195125 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1365387795086046, 2.844690211864065 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1365387795086046, 2.844690211864065 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1365387795086046, 2.844690211864065 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 2.0, 5.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020099, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 2, 5 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020099, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 2, 5 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892498", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892498", "away": "Colorado Avalanche", "home": "Dallas Stars", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+220) / +1.5 (-270)", "ml": "-115 / -105", "total": "5.5; O -135 / U +114", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/colorado-avalanche-dallas-stars-401892498-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892498", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.789770+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.155609756097561, 3.011219512195122 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.155609756097561, 3.011219512195122 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.155609756097561, 3.011219512195122 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21, "official_team_name": "Colorado Avalanche" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.32926, "pa": 2.70731, "official_team_id": 25, "official_team_name": "Dallas Stars" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 5.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020102, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 5 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020102, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 5 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892501", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892501", "away": "Calgary Flames", "home": "Anaheim Ducks", "startTime": "9:45 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-148) / -1.5 (+124)", "ml": "+170 / -205", "total": "6.5; O +110 / U -130", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/calgary-flames-anaheim-ducks-401892501-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892501", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.872315+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20, "official_team_name": "Calgary Flames" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24, "official_team_name": "Anaheim Ducks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "home": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20, "official_team_name": "Calgary Flames" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24, "official_team_name": "Anaheim Ducks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "home": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892501", "away": "Calgary Flames", "home": "Anaheim Ducks", "startTime": "9:45 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Calgary Flames 4, Anaheim Ducks 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-148) / -1.5 (+124)", "ml": "+170 / -205", "total": "6.5; O +110 / U -130", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/calgary-flames-anaheim-ducks-401892501-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892501", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.872315+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.5853658536585367, 3.158536585365854 ], "current_rates": [ 1.6, 5.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.3292682926829267, 3.5121951219512195 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6, 2.6 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "home": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.816700313048467, 3.460209020817146 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.816700313048467, 3.460209020817146 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.816700313048467, 3.460209020817146 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "home": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20, "official_team_name": "Calgary Flames" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24, "official_team_name": "Anaheim Ducks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "home": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20, "official_team_name": "Calgary Flames" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24, "official_team_name": "Anaheim Ducks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "home": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020103, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 2 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020103, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 2 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401898718", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898718", "away": "Golden State Warriors", "home": "Los Angeles Lakers", "startTime": "10:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+2.5 (-110) / -2.5 (-110)", "ml": "+114 / -135", "total": "227.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 114.5 / 116.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/golden-state-warriors-los-angeles-lakers-401898718-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898718", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.924221+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.59756097560975, 115.7560975609756 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.59756097560975, 115.7560975609756 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.59756097560975, 115.7560975609756 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.60975609756098, 115.17073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.34146341463415, 114.58536585365853 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.591465, 134.591465 ], "home": [ 95.756095, 135.75609500000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.31358760221711, 113.18782789207457 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.31358760221711, 113.18782789207457 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.31358760221711, 113.18782789207457 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2792, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "908b352170b64d5da6773996ab99d15522ad83b83d62bcef1698642fdf619d5b" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.695368619799016, "mean_margin_error": 14.866714897441717, "mean_total_error": 10.858078193211853, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.591465, 134.591465 ], "home": [ 95.756095, 135.75609500000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.34146, "pa": 114.57317 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.591465, 134.591465 ], "home": [ 95.756095, 135.75609500000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.34146, "pa": 114.57317 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.591465, 134.591465 ], "home": [ 95.756095, 135.75609500000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "adjustedScore": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898718", "away": "Golden State Warriors", "home": "Los Angeles Lakers", "startTime": "10:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Golden State Warriors 101, Los Angeles Lakers 89", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+2.5 (-110) / -2.5 (-110)", "ml": "+114 / -135", "total": "227.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 114.5 / 116.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/golden-state-warriors-los-angeles-lakers-401898718-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898718", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.924221+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.59756097560975, 115.7560975609756 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.59756097560975, 115.7560975609756 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.59756097560975, 115.7560975609756 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.60975609756098, 115.17073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.34146341463415, 114.58536585365853 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.591465, 134.591465 ], "home": [ 95.756095, 135.75609500000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.31358760221711, 113.18782789207457 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.31358760221711, 113.18782789207457 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.31358760221711, 113.18782789207457 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 101.0, 89.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612747/schedule", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:39:15.601253+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612747/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:39:15.601253+00:00", "scores": [ 101, 89 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 13 vs GSW L 101 - 89" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612747/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:39:15.601253+00:00", "scores": [ 101, 89 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 13 vs GSW L 101 - 89" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401901826", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401901826", "away": "Portland Trail Blazers", "home": "Sacramento Kings", "startTime": "10:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-3.5 (-115) / +3.5 (-105)", "ml": "-170 / +142", "total": "227.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 118.0 / 113.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/portland-trail-blazers-sacramento-kings-401901826-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901826", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.929050+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 116.73780487804878, 114.8841463414634 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.73780487804878, 114.8841463414634 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.73780487804878, 114.8841463414634 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.37716518423461, 112.18363859787532 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.37716518423461, 112.18363859787532 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.37716518423461, 112.18363859787532 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "conditional_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "conditional_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "adjustedScore": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 110.0, 98.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612758/schedule", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:39:14.709912+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612758/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:39:14.709912+00:00", "scores": [ 110, 98 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 13 vs POR L 110 - 98" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612758/schedule", "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:39:14.709912+00:00", "scores": [ 110, 98 ], "status": "Completed W/L result", "stage": "Preseason", "evidence": "Oct 13 vs POR L 110 - 98" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892502", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892502", "away": "Edmonton Oilers", "home": "Los Angeles Kings", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+200) / +1.5 (-245)", "ml": "-125 / +105", "total": "6.5; O +114 / U -135", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/edmonton-oilers-los-angeles-kings-401892502-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892502", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:32.004686+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.384857723577236, 3.1038211382113823 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.384857723577236, 3.1038211382113823 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.384857723577236, 3.1038211382113823 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22, "official_team_name": "Edmonton Oilers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26, "official_team_name": "Los Angeles Kings" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.9573100000000001, 4.95731 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.3193067012671253, 3.0857667553470374 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3193067012671253, 3.0857667553470374 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.3193067012671253, 3.0857667553470374 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020104, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 1 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020104, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 4, 1 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892503", "before": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892503", "away": "Boston Bruins", "home": "San Jose Sharks", "startTime": "11:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-270) / -1.5 (+220)", "ml": "-105 / -115", "total": "6.5; O +110 / U -130", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.5 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/boston-bruins-san-jose-sharks-401892503-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892503", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:32.036004+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.3333333333333335, 2.1666666666666665 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.5609756097560976 ], "current_rates": [ 2.6, 3.4 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6, "official_team_name": "Boston Bruins" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28, "official_team_name": "San Jose Sharks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6, "official_team_name": "Boston Bruins" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28, "official_team_name": "San Jose Sharks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-13", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892503", "away": "Boston Bruins", "home": "San Jose Sharks", "startTime": "11:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Boston Bruins 6, San Jose Sharks 3", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-270) / -1.5 (+220)", "ml": "-105 / -115", "total": "6.5; O +110 / U -130", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.5 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/13/boston-bruins-san-jose-sharks-401892503-october-13-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892503", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-13T05:52:32.036004+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.3333333333333335, 2.1666666666666665 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.5609756097560976 ], "current_rates": [ 2.6, 3.4 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6, "official_team_name": "Boston Bruins" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28, "official_team_name": "San Jose Sharks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6, "official_team_name": "Boston Bruins" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28, "official_team_name": "San Jose Sharks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.321283+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 6.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "retrieved": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020105, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 6, 3 ], "status": "OFF / Final" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-13", "official_event_id": 2026020105, "verified_utc": "2026-10-14T10:38:26.610359+00:00", "scores": [ 6, 3 ], "status": "OFF / Final" }, "applied": false } ], "summary": { "events": 29, "wins": 1, "losses": 1, "no_grade": 27 }, "preservation": "Original Oct12 site/ZIP unchanged; original selection, line and freeze preserved." }