Four configurations. Three score engines.

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / elapsed; no prospective forecast"
    ]
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872981",
    "matchup": "Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.0767 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.9233",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -120.0,
    "pick": "Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5",
    "line": -7.5,
    "selection_side": "home",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872981",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.025946+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      17.817029049795593,
      24.393758637899264
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      11.817029049795593,
      24.393758637899264
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 5.076729588103671,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.076729588103671,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -0.9232704118963291,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          14.817029049795593,
          24.393758637899264
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.076729588103671,
        "adverse_score": [
          17.817029049795593,
          24.393758637899264
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.9232704118963291
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            14.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.076729588103671,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.9232704118963291
        },
        {
          "score": [
            11.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.076729588103671,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.076729588103671
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Philadelphia protection reconstruction",
        "detail": "Starting center trade plus LaneJohnson retirement and KendallOUT; replacement center/tackle communication and turnover exposure remain outside the offensive skill-position human branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Safety continuity",
        "detail": "PHI MarcusEpps is listed first atSS and OUT; JAX EricMurray first atSS and doubtful. Coverage/finishing uncertainty separate from blocking.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.076729588103671,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 3.4323529411764753,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -0.04106876084279776,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872981",
    "matchup": "Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.2892 below required5",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.7108",
      "Total stress retains-0.7108, below1point",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Under 41.5",
    "line": 41.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872981",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.025946+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      17.817029049795593,
      24.393758637899264
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      11.817029049795593,
      24.393758637899264
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 5.289212312305139,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.289212312305139,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -0.7107876876948609,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          14.817029049795593,
          24.393758637899264
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.289212312305139,
        "adverse_score": [
          17.817029049795593,
          24.393758637899264
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.7107876876948609
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            14.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.289212312305139,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.7107876876948609
        },
        {
          "score": [
            11.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.289212312305139,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.289212312305139
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Philadelphia protection reconstruction",
        "detail": "Starting center trade plus LaneJohnson retirement and KendallOUT; replacement center/tackle communication and turnover exposure remain outside the offensive skill-position human branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Safety continuity",
        "detail": "PHI MarcusEpps is listed first atSS and OUT; JAX EricMurray first atSS and doubtful. Coverage/finishing uncertainty separate from blocking.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.289212312305143,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -4.53235294117647,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -4.8508479631656485,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872981",
    "matchup": "Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.0767 below required3",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.9233",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -120.0,
    "pick": "Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5",
    "line": -7.5,
    "selection_side": "home",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872981",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.025946+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      17.817029049795593,
      24.393758637899264
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      11.817029049795593,
      24.393758637899264
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 5.076729588103671,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.076729588103671,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -0.9232704118963291,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          14.817029049795593,
          24.393758637899264
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.076729588103671,
        "adverse_score": [
          17.817029049795593,
          24.393758637899264
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.9232704118963291
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            14.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.076729588103671,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.9232704118963291
        },
        {
          "score": [
            11.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.076729588103671,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.076729588103671
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Philadelphia protection reconstruction",
        "detail": "Starting center trade plus LaneJohnson retirement and KendallOUT; replacement center/tackle communication and turnover exposure remain outside the offensive skill-position human branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Safety continuity",
        "detail": "PHI MarcusEpps is listed first atSS and OUT; JAX EricMurray first atSS and doubtful. Coverage/finishing uncertainty separate from blocking.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.076729588103671,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 3.4323529411764753,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -0.04106876084279776,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872981",
    "matchup": "Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.2892 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.7108",
      "Total stress retains-0.7108, below1point",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Under 41.5",
    "line": 41.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872981",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.025946+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      17.817029049795593,
      24.393758637899264
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      11.817029049795593,
      24.393758637899264
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 5.289212312305139,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.289212312305139,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -0.7107876876948609,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          14.817029049795593,
          24.393758637899264
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.289212312305139,
        "adverse_score": [
          17.817029049795593,
          24.393758637899264
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.7107876876948609
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            14.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.289212312305139,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.7107876876948609
        },
        {
          "score": [
            11.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.289212312305139,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.817029049795593,
            24.393758637899264
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.289212312305139
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Philadelphia protection reconstruction",
        "detail": "Starting center trade plus LaneJohnson retirement and KendallOUT; replacement center/tackle communication and turnover exposure remain outside the offensive skill-position human branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Safety continuity",
        "detail": "PHI MarcusEpps is listed first atSS and OUT; JAX EricMurray first atSS and doubtful. Coverage/finishing uncertainty separate from blocking.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.289212312305143,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -4.53235294117647,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -4.8508479631656485,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 13.0 / 24.0

• Saquon Barkley: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 16.0 / 24.0; other team production 16.0 / 24.0
• DeVonta Smith: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 16.0 / 24.0; other team production 16.0 / 24.0

Primary

Conditional joint 14.5 / 22.0

• Saquon Barkley: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 17.5 / 22.0; other team production 17.5 / 22.0
• DeVonta Smith: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 17.5 / 22.0; other team production 17.5 / 22.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 12.0 / 24.5

• Saquon Barkley: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 15.0 / 24.5; other team production 15.0 / 24.5
• DeVonta Smith: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 15.0 / 24.5; other team production 15.0 / 24.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 12.0 / 24.5

• Saquon Barkley: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 15.0 / 24.5; other team production 15.0 / 24.5
• DeVonta Smith: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 15.0 / 24.5; other team production 15.0 / 24.5

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/30/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/30/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4715355/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3929630/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4241478/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4431545/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4715355/stats
• https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcpvwd6uv?nearestTo=Tottenham+Hale
• https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-at-jaguars-injury-report-2026-nfl-week-5-london-international-game-saquon-barkley-devonta-smith

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872982",
    "matchup": "Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.8778 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-6.1222 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-9.1222",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "3 unresolved medium risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes3 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Cincinnati Bengals -7",
    "line": -7.0,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872982",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.272560710139317,
      20.39474890462942
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      24.272560710139317,
      14.39474890462942
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.8778118055098965,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -6.1221881944901035,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -9.122188194490104,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          18.272560710139317,
          17.39474890462942
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -6.1221881944901035,
        "adverse_score": [
          18.272560710139317,
          20.39474890462942
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -9.122188194490104
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.12218819449010354,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            20.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.1221881944901035
        },
        {
          "score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8778118055098965,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.12218819449010354
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1221881944901035,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            20.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -6.1221881944901035
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.12218819449010354,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.1221881944901035
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -6.1221881944901035,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            20.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -9.122188194490104
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1221881944901035,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -6.1221881944901035
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Cincinnati safety status",
        "detail": "Starting FS BryanCookQ; KyleDuggerOUT is second in currentdepth. Current passing and tackle branches do not quantify safety rotation.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Miami defensive interior",
        "detail": "Starting LDT JordanPhillipsQ in currentdepth and KennethGrantQ official report; rotational front uncertainty, without two confirmed missing starters.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Miami heat and later storm chance",
        "detail": "NWS91F early and15–16percent afternoon thunderstorm chance; exertion/rotation/interruption risk. No weather coefficient invented.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.8778118055098965,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -0.8323529411764703,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -0.1548565554866208,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872982",
    "matchup": "Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer4.8327 below required5",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer1.8327 below required5",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-1.1673",
      "Total stress retains-1.1673, below1point",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "3 unresolved medium risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes3 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -105.0,
    "pick": "Under 43.5",
    "line": 43.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872982",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.272560710139317,
      20.39474890462942
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      24.272560710139317,
      14.39474890462942
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 4.83269038523126,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.8326903852312597,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -1.1673096147687403,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          24.272560710139317,
          17.39474890462942
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.8326903852312597,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.272560710139317,
          17.39474890462942
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -1.1673096147687403
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.8326903852312597,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.1673096147687403
        },
        {
          "score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.83269038523126,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.8326903852312597
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.83269038523126,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.8326903852312597
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.83269038523126,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.83269038523126
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.83269038523126,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.83269038523126
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.83269038523126,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.83269038523126
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Cincinnati safety status",
        "detail": "Starting FS BryanCookQ; KyleDuggerOUT is second in currentdepth. Current passing and tackle branches do not quantify safety rotation.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Miami defensive interior",
        "detail": "Starting LDT JordanPhillipsQ in currentdepth and KennethGrantQ official report; rotational front uncertainty, without two confirmed missing starters.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Miami heat and later storm chance",
        "detail": "NWS91F early and15–16percent afternoon thunderstorm chance; exertion/rotation/interruption risk. No weather coefficient invented.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.832690385231263,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -3.455882352941174,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -1.2698469984006238,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872982",
    "matchup": "Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.8778 below required3",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-6.1222 below required3",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-9.1222",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "3 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Cincinnati Bengals -7",
    "line": -7.0,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872982",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.272560710139317,
      20.39474890462942
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      24.272560710139317,
      14.39474890462942
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.8778118055098965,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -6.1221881944901035,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -9.122188194490104,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          18.272560710139317,
          17.39474890462942
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -6.1221881944901035,
        "adverse_score": [
          18.272560710139317,
          20.39474890462942
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -9.122188194490104
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.12218819449010354,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            20.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.1221881944901035
        },
        {
          "score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8778118055098965,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.12218819449010354
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1221881944901035,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            20.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -6.1221881944901035
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.12218819449010354,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.1221881944901035
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -6.1221881944901035,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            20.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -9.122188194490104
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1221881944901035,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -6.1221881944901035
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Cincinnati safety status",
        "detail": "Starting FS BryanCookQ; KyleDuggerOUT is second in currentdepth. Current passing and tackle branches do not quantify safety rotation.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Miami defensive interior",
        "detail": "Starting LDT JordanPhillipsQ in currentdepth and KennethGrantQ official report; rotational front uncertainty, without two confirmed missing starters.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Miami heat and later storm chance",
        "detail": "NWS91F early and15–16percent afternoon thunderstorm chance; exertion/rotation/interruption risk. No weather coefficient invented.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.8778118055098965,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -0.8323529411764703,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -0.1548565554866208,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872982",
    "matchup": "Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer1.8327 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-1.1673",
      "Total stress retains-1.1673, below1point",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "3 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -105.0,
    "pick": "Under 43.5",
    "line": 43.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872982",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.272560710139317,
      20.39474890462942
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      24.272560710139317,
      14.39474890462942
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 4.83269038523126,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.8326903852312597,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -1.1673096147687403,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          24.272560710139317,
          17.39474890462942
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.8326903852312597,
        "adverse_score": [
          27.272560710139317,
          17.39474890462942
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -1.1673096147687403
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.8326903852312597,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.1673096147687403
        },
        {
          "score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.83269038523126,
          "adverse_score": [
            27.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.8326903852312597
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.83269038523126,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.8326903852312597
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.83269038523126,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.83269038523126
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.83269038523126,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            17.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.83269038523126
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.83269038523126,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.272560710139317,
            14.39474890462942
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.83269038523126
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Cincinnati safety status",
        "detail": "Starting FS BryanCookQ; KyleDuggerOUT is second in currentdepth. Current passing and tackle branches do not quantify safety rotation.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Miami defensive interior",
        "detail": "Starting LDT JordanPhillipsQ in currentdepth and KennethGrantQ official report; rotational front uncertainty, without two confirmed missing starters.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Miami heat and later storm chance",
        "detail": "NWS91F early and15–16percent afternoon thunderstorm chance; exertion/rotation/interruption risk. No weather coefficient invented.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.832690385231263,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -3.455882352941174,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -1.2698469984006238,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 24.0 / 16.0

• Ja'Marr Chase: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.0 / 22.0; other team production 21.0 / 16.0
• Tee Higgins: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.0 / 22.0; other team production 21.0 / 16.0
• Caleb Douglas: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.0 / 19.0; other team production 24.0 / 19.0
• De'Von Achane: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.0 / 19.0; other team production 24.0 / 19.0

Primary

Conditional joint 24.5 / 17.5

• Ja'Marr Chase: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 23.5; other team production 21.5 / 17.5
• Tee Higgins: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 23.5; other team production 21.5 / 17.5
• Caleb Douglas: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.5 / 20.5; other team production 24.5 / 20.5
• De'Von Achane: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.5 / 20.5; other team production 24.5 / 20.5

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 24.5 / 14.5

• Ja'Marr Chase: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 20.5; other team production 21.5 / 14.5
• Tee Higgins: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 20.5; other team production 21.5 / 14.5
• Caleb Douglas: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.5 / 17.5; other team production 24.5 / 17.5
• De'Von Achane: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.5 / 17.5; other team production 24.5 / 17.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 24.5 / 14.5

• Ja'Marr Chase: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 20.5; other team production 21.5 / 14.5
• Tee Higgins: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 20.5; other team production 21.5 / 14.5
• Caleb Douglas: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.5 / 17.5; other team production 24.5 / 17.5
• De'Von Achane: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.5 / 17.5; other team production 24.5 / 17.5

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/MFL/107,58/forecast/hourly
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4384852/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4869645/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4239993/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4249417/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4362628/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4384852/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429160/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4690070/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4711533/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4869645/stats
• https://www.miamidolphins.com/news/dolphins-make-roster-moves-x4614

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872983",
    "matchup": "Cleveland Browns at New York Jets",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "3 unresolved medium risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes3 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -110.0,
    "pick": "Cleveland Browns +2.5",
    "line": 2.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872983",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.021886+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      21.64453125,
      22.3125527320823
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.64453125,
      16.3125527320823
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 7.831978517917701,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.831978517917701,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.831978517917701,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.64453125,
          19.3125527320823
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.831978517917701,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.64453125,
          22.3125527320823
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.831978517917701
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.64453125,
            19.3125527320823
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.831978517917701,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.64453125,
            22.3125527320823
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.831978517917701
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.64453125,
            16.3125527320823
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.831978517917701,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.64453125,
            19.3125527320823
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.831978517917701
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Cleveland defensive tackle depth",
        "detail": "First-listed LDT MasonGrahamOUT plus rotational MikeHall and KaliaDavisOUT. Only one first-listed starter is missing, so classify a thinned run-defense unit medium rather than automatically equating three names to three starters.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Jets protection and pressure rotation",
        "detail": "Starting LG DylanParhamOUT; first RDE EnagbareQ and next McDonaldQ. Interior blocking/pressure continuity is not included in BreeceHall/Mitchell human deductions.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Persistent MetLife rain",
        "detail": "Official NWS kickoff rain probability92percent; ball handling and pace remain separate medium uncertainty.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.831978517917701,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -8.517647058823531,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -7.893336882489727,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872983",
    "matchup": "Cleveland Browns at New York Jets",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer1.5429 below required5",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-1.4571 below required5",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-4.4571",
      "Total stress retains-4.4571, below1point",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "3 unresolved medium risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes3 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -108.0,
    "pick": "Under 39.5",
    "line": 39.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872983",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.021886+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      21.64453125,
      22.3125527320823
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.64453125,
      16.3125527320823
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 1.5429160179177046,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.4570839820822954,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -4.457083982082295,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.64453125,
          19.3125527320823
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4570839820822954,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.64453125,
          19.3125527320823
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -4.457083982082295
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.64453125,
            19.3125527320823
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4570839820822954,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.64453125,
            19.3125527320823
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.457083982082295
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.64453125,
            16.3125527320823
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.5429160179177046,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.64453125,
            16.3125527320823
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.4570839820822954
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Cleveland defensive tackle depth",
        "detail": "First-listed LDT MasonGrahamOUT plus rotational MikeHall and KaliaDavisOUT. Only one first-listed starter is missing, so classify a thinned run-defense unit medium rather than automatically equating three names to three starters.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Jets protection and pressure rotation",
        "detail": "Starting LG DylanParhamOUT; first RDE EnagbareQ and next McDonaldQ. Interior blocking/pressure continuity is not included in BreeceHall/Mitchell human deductions.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Persistent MetLife rain",
        "detail": "Official NWS kickoff rain probability92percent; ball handling and pace remain separate medium uncertainty.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.542916017917701,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -2.9176470588235333,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -3.815665580107371,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872983",
    "matchup": "Cleveland Browns at New York Jets",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "3 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -110.0,
    "pick": "Cleveland Browns +2.5",
    "line": 2.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872983",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.021886+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      21.64453125,
      22.3125527320823
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.64453125,
      16.3125527320823
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 7.831978517917701,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.831978517917701,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.831978517917701,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.64453125,
          19.3125527320823
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.831978517917701,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.64453125,
          22.3125527320823
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.831978517917701
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.64453125,
            19.3125527320823
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.831978517917701,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.64453125,
            22.3125527320823
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.831978517917701
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.64453125,
            16.3125527320823
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.831978517917701,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.64453125,
            19.3125527320823
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.831978517917701
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Cleveland defensive tackle depth",
        "detail": "First-listed LDT MasonGrahamOUT plus rotational MikeHall and KaliaDavisOUT. Only one first-listed starter is missing, so classify a thinned run-defense unit medium rather than automatically equating three names to three starters.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Jets protection and pressure rotation",
        "detail": "Starting LG DylanParhamOUT; first RDE EnagbareQ and next McDonaldQ. Interior blocking/pressure continuity is not included in BreeceHall/Mitchell human deductions.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Persistent MetLife rain",
        "detail": "Official NWS kickoff rain probability92percent; ball handling and pace remain separate medium uncertainty.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.831978517917701,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -8.517647058823531,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -7.893336882489727,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872983",
    "matchup": "Cleveland Browns at New York Jets",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer1.5429 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-1.4571 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-4.4571",
      "Total stress retains-4.4571, below1point",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "3 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -108.0,
    "pick": "Under 39.5",
    "line": 39.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872983",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.021886+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      21.64453125,
      22.3125527320823
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.64453125,
      16.3125527320823
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 1.5429160179177046,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.4570839820822954,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -4.457083982082295,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.64453125,
          19.3125527320823
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4570839820822954,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.64453125,
          19.3125527320823
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -4.457083982082295
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.64453125,
            19.3125527320823
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4570839820822954,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.64453125,
            19.3125527320823
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.457083982082295
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.64453125,
            16.3125527320823
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.5429160179177046,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.64453125,
            16.3125527320823
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.4570839820822954
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Cleveland defensive tackle depth",
        "detail": "First-listed LDT MasonGrahamOUT plus rotational MikeHall and KaliaDavisOUT. Only one first-listed starter is missing, so classify a thinned run-defense unit medium rather than automatically equating three names to three starters.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Jets protection and pressure rotation",
        "detail": "Starting LG DylanParhamOUT; first RDE EnagbareQ and next McDonaldQ. Interior blocking/pressure continuity is not included in BreeceHall/Mitchell human deductions.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Persistent MetLife rain",
        "detail": "Official NWS kickoff rain probability92percent; ball handling and pace remain separate medium uncertainty.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.542916017917701,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -2.9176470588235333,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -3.815665580107371,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 21.5 / 15.5

• Breece Hall: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 18.5; other team production 21.5 / 18.5
• Adonai Mitchell: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 18.5; other team production 21.5 / 18.5

Primary

Conditional joint 20.5 / 15.0

• Breece Hall: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 20.5 / 18.0; other team production 20.5 / 18.0
• Adonai Mitchell: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 20.5 / 18.0; other team production 20.5 / 18.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 21.5 / 16.5

• Breece Hall: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 19.5; other team production 21.5 / 19.5
• Adonai Mitchell: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 19.5; other team production 21.5 / 19.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 21.5 / 16.5

• Breece Hall: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 19.5; other team production 21.5 / 19.5
• Adonai Mitchell: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 19.5; other team production 21.5 / 19.5

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/30,46/forecast/hourly
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/5/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/5/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3134353/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4427366/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4597500/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4685247/stats

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872984",
    "matchup": "Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Tennessee Titans +7",
    "line": 7.0,
    "selection_side": "home",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872984",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.947086+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      22.78765099789916,
      20.493993821486928
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      19.78765099789916,
      20.493993821486928
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 7.706342823587768,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.706342823587768,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.706342823587768,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          19.78765099789916,
          17.493993821486928
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.706342823587768,
        "adverse_score": [
          22.78765099789916,
          17.493993821486928
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.706342823587768
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.706342823587768,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.706342823587768
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.706342823587768,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.706342823587768
        },
        {
          "score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.706342823587768,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.706342823587768
        },
        {
          "score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.706342823587768,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.706342823587768
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Houston tackle availability",
        "detail": "BradenSmithOUT and starting LT AireontaeErseryQ, reserve tackle BlakeFisherQ plus EdIngramQ. Both-edge protection contingency is not represented by Dell/Higgins receiving human scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Tennessee safety absence",
        "detail": "Starting SS AmaniHookerOUT, reserve CB JoshuaWilliamsOUT; deep coverage continuity uncertainty remains separate from Tate availability.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.706342823587768,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 6.002941176470589,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 3.4699034052382345,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872984",
    "matchup": "Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.7816 below required5",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-3.2184 below required5",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-6.2184",
      "Total stress retains-6.2184, below1point",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -115.0,
    "pick": "Over 37.5",
    "line": 37.5,
    "selection_side": "over",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872984",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.947086+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      22.78765099789916,
      20.493993821486928
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      19.78765099789916,
      20.493993821486928
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.781644819386088,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -3.218355180613912,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -6.218355180613912,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          16.78765099789916,
          17.493993821486928
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.218355180613912,
        "adverse_score": [
          13.78765099789916,
          17.493993821486928
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -6.218355180613912
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.781644819386088,
          "adverse_score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.21835518061391213
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.21835518061391213,
          "adverse_score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.218355180613912
        },
        {
          "score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.21835518061391213,
          "adverse_score": [
            13.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.218355180613912
        },
        {
          "score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.218355180613912,
          "adverse_score": [
            13.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -6.218355180613912
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Houston tackle availability",
        "detail": "BradenSmithOUT and starting LT AireontaeErseryQ, reserve tackle BlakeFisherQ plus EdIngramQ. Both-edge protection contingency is not represented by Dell/Higgins receiving human scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Tennessee safety absence",
        "detail": "Starting SS AmaniHookerOUT, reserve CB JoshuaWilliamsOUT; deep coverage continuity uncertainty remains separate from Tate availability.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.781644819386088,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 1.8323529411764667,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 0.9074330209044916,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872984",
    "matchup": "Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Tennessee Titans +7",
    "line": 7.0,
    "selection_side": "home",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872984",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.947086+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      22.78765099789916,
      20.493993821486928
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      19.78765099789916,
      20.493993821486928
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 7.706342823587768,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.706342823587768,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.706342823587768,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          19.78765099789916,
          17.493993821486928
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.706342823587768,
        "adverse_score": [
          22.78765099789916,
          17.493993821486928
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.706342823587768
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.706342823587768,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.706342823587768
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.706342823587768,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.706342823587768
        },
        {
          "score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.706342823587768,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.706342823587768
        },
        {
          "score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.706342823587768,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.706342823587768
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Houston tackle availability",
        "detail": "BradenSmithOUT and starting LT AireontaeErseryQ, reserve tackle BlakeFisherQ plus EdIngramQ. Both-edge protection contingency is not represented by Dell/Higgins receiving human scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Tennessee safety absence",
        "detail": "Starting SS AmaniHookerOUT, reserve CB JoshuaWilliamsOUT; deep coverage continuity uncertainty remains separate from Tate availability.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.706342823587768,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 6.002941176470589,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 3.4699034052382345,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872984",
    "matchup": "Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.7816 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-3.2184 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-6.2184",
      "Total stress retains-6.2184, below1point",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -115.0,
    "pick": "Over 37.5",
    "line": 37.5,
    "selection_side": "over",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872984",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.947086+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      22.78765099789916,
      20.493993821486928
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      19.78765099789916,
      20.493993821486928
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.781644819386088,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -3.218355180613912,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -6.218355180613912,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          16.78765099789916,
          17.493993821486928
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.218355180613912,
        "adverse_score": [
          13.78765099789916,
          17.493993821486928
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -6.218355180613912
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.781644819386088,
          "adverse_score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.21835518061391213
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.21835518061391213,
          "adverse_score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.218355180613912
        },
        {
          "score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.21835518061391213,
          "adverse_score": [
            13.78765099789916,
            20.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.218355180613912
        },
        {
          "score": [
            16.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.218355180613912,
          "adverse_score": [
            13.78765099789916,
            17.493993821486928
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -6.218355180613912
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Houston tackle availability",
        "detail": "BradenSmithOUT and starting LT AireontaeErseryQ, reserve tackle BlakeFisherQ plus EdIngramQ. Both-edge protection contingency is not represented by Dell/Higgins receiving human scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Tennessee safety absence",
        "detail": "Starting SS AmaniHookerOUT, reserve CB JoshuaWilliamsOUT; deep coverage continuity uncertainty remains separate from Tate availability.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.781644819386088,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 1.8323529411764667,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 0.9074330209044916,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 20.0 / 19.0

• Tank Dell: confirmed unavailable; isolated 20.0 / 19.0; other team production 20.0 / 19.0
• Jayden Higgins: confirmed unavailable; isolated 20.0 / 19.0; other team production 20.0 / 19.0
• Carnell Tate: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.0 / 16.0; other team production 20.0 / 16.0

Primary

Conditional joint 21.0 / 17.5

• Tank Dell: confirmed unavailable; isolated 21.0 / 17.5; other team production 21.0 / 17.5
• Jayden Higgins: confirmed unavailable; isolated 21.0 / 17.5; other team production 21.0 / 17.5
• Carnell Tate: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 24.0 / 14.5; other team production 21.0 / 14.5

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 20.0 / 20.5

• Tank Dell: confirmed unavailable; isolated 20.0 / 20.5; other team production 20.0 / 20.5
• Jayden Higgins: confirmed unavailable; isolated 20.0 / 20.5; other team production 20.0 / 20.5
• Carnell Tate: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.0 / 17.5; other team production 20.0 / 17.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 20.0 / 20.5

• Tank Dell: confirmed unavailable; isolated 20.0 / 20.5; other team production 20.0 / 20.5
• Jayden Higgins: confirmed unavailable; isolated 20.0 / 20.5; other team production 20.0 / 20.5
• Carnell Tate: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.0 / 17.5; other team production 20.0 / 17.5

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OHX/50,57/forecast/hourly
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/10/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/10/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/34/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/34/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4871023/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3925357/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4366031/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429022/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4586312/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4871023/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4877706/stats
• https://www.houstontexans.com/news/jaylin-noel-kayshon-boutte-and-xavier-hutchinson-step-up-for-the-texans-against-dallas
• https://www.houstontexans.com/team/players-roster/mobile
• https://www.houstontexans.com/team/transactions/2026

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872985",
    "matchup": "Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.0690 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-0.9310 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-3.9310",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": 100.0,
    "pick": "Indianapolis Colts +2.5",
    "line": 2.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872985",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.679779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031877+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      23.72472093456948,
      24.15573965659633
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      20.72472093456948,
      21.15573965659633
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.0689812779731476,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.9310187220268524,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -3.9310187220268524,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          17.72472093456948,
          21.15573965659633
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9310187220268524,
        "adverse_score": [
          17.72472093456948,
          24.15573965659633
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.9310187220268524
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0689812779731476,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            24.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.9310187220268524
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.068981277973148,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.0689812779731476
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9310187220268524,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            24.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.9310187220268524
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0689812779731476,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.9310187220268524
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Pittsburgh coverage contingency",
        "detail": "JamelDean first outsideCB OUT and first nickel JalenRamseyQ, with ElliottIR. Porter trade recentbaseline already excluded his earlyPIT snaps; current coverage risk remains independently unresolved.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Indianapolis defensive roles",
        "detail": "Starting LB JaylonCarliesOUT and outsideCB CharvariusWardQ, with reserve corner depthIR. Coverage/run-fit uncertainty outside receiving replacement branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.0689812779731476,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -2.176470588235297,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -2.159710895414598,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872985",
    "matchup": "Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer1.6195 below required5",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer1.6195 below required5",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-1.3805",
      "Total stress retains-1.3805, below1point",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Under 43.5",
    "line": 43.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872985",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.679779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031877+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      23.72472093456948,
      24.15573965659633
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      20.72472093456948,
      21.15573965659633
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 1.6195394088341857,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.6195394088341857,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -1.3804605911658143,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          20.72472093456948,
          21.15573965659633
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6195394088341857,
        "adverse_score": [
          23.72472093456948,
          21.15573965659633
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3804605911658143
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6195394088341857,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.3804605911658143
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.619539408834186,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.6195394088341857
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.619539408834186,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.6195394088341857
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.619539408834186,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.619539408834186
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Pittsburgh coverage contingency",
        "detail": "JamelDean first outsideCB OUT and first nickel JalenRamseyQ, with ElliottIR. Porter trade recentbaseline already excluded his earlyPIT snaps; current coverage risk remains independently unresolved.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Indianapolis defensive roles",
        "detail": "Starting LB JaylonCarliesOUT and outsideCB CharvariusWardQ, with reserve corner depthIR. Coverage/run-fit uncertainty outside receiving replacement branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.6195394088341892,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -1.6705882352941188,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -0.7647649102767744,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872985",
    "matchup": "Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.0690 below required3",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-0.9310 below required3",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-3.9310",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": 100.0,
    "pick": "Indianapolis Colts +2.5",
    "line": 2.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872985",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.679779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031877+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      23.72472093456948,
      24.15573965659633
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      20.72472093456948,
      21.15573965659633
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.0689812779731476,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.9310187220268524,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -3.9310187220268524,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          17.72472093456948,
          21.15573965659633
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9310187220268524,
        "adverse_score": [
          17.72472093456948,
          24.15573965659633
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.9310187220268524
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0689812779731476,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            24.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.9310187220268524
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.068981277973148,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.0689812779731476
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9310187220268524,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            24.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.9310187220268524
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0689812779731476,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.9310187220268524
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Pittsburgh coverage contingency",
        "detail": "JamelDean first outsideCB OUT and first nickel JalenRamseyQ, with ElliottIR. Porter trade recentbaseline already excluded his earlyPIT snaps; current coverage risk remains independently unresolved.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Indianapolis defensive roles",
        "detail": "Starting LB JaylonCarliesOUT and outsideCB CharvariusWardQ, with reserve corner depthIR. Coverage/run-fit uncertainty outside receiving replacement branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.0689812779731476,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -2.176470588235297,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -2.159710895414598,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872985",
    "matchup": "Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer1.6195 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer1.6195 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-1.3805",
      "Total stress retains-1.3805, below1point",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Under 43.5",
    "line": 43.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872985",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.679779+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031877+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      23.72472093456948,
      24.15573965659633
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      20.72472093456948,
      21.15573965659633
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 1.6195394088341857,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.6195394088341857,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -1.3804605911658143,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          20.72472093456948,
          21.15573965659633
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6195394088341857,
        "adverse_score": [
          23.72472093456948,
          21.15573965659633
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3804605911658143
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6195394088341857,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.3804605911658143
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.619539408834186,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.6195394088341857
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.619539408834186,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            21.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.6195394088341857
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.619539408834186,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.72472093456948,
            18.15573965659633
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.619539408834186
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Pittsburgh coverage contingency",
        "detail": "JamelDean first outsideCB OUT and first nickel JalenRamseyQ, with ElliottIR. Porter trade recentbaseline already excluded his earlyPIT snaps; current coverage risk remains independently unresolved.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Indianapolis defensive roles",
        "detail": "Starting LB JaylonCarliesOUT and outsideCB CharvariusWardQ, with reserve corner depthIR. Coverage/run-fit uncertainty outside receiving replacement branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.6195394088341892,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -1.6705882352941188,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -0.7647649102767744,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 21.0 / 21.0

• Keenan Allen: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.0 / 24.0; other team production 21.0 / 21.0
• Alec Pierce: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 24.0; other team production 21.0 / 21.0
• Michael Pittman Jr.: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.0 / 21.0; other team production 21.0 / 21.0
• Rico Dowdle: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 24.0 / 21.0; other team production 21.0 / 21.0

Primary

Conditional joint 21.0 / 21.5

• Keenan Allen: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.0 / 24.5; other team production 21.0 / 21.5
• Alec Pierce: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 24.5; other team production 21.0 / 21.5
• Michael Pittman Jr.: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.0 / 21.5; other team production 21.0 / 21.5
• Rico Dowdle: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 24.0 / 21.5; other team production 21.0 / 21.5

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 20.5 / 21.0

• Keenan Allen: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 20.5 / 24.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Alec Pierce: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 20.5 / 24.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Michael Pittman Jr.: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 23.5 / 21.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Rico Dowdle: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.5 / 21.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 20.5 / 21.0

• Keenan Allen: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 20.5 / 24.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Alec Pierce: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 20.5 / 24.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Michael Pittman Jr.: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 23.5 / 21.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Rico Dowdle: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.5 / 21.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/PBZ/77,66/forecast/hourly
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4683151/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/15818/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3051889/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4035687/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4038815/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4360078/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4431492/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4569987/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4683151/stats
• https://www.colts.com/news/colts-sign-wr-anthony-gould-to-53-man-roster-from-practice-squad-place-wr-alec-pierce-on-injured-reserve-elevate-wr-nick-westbrook-ikhine-to-active-roster-from-practice-squad

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872986",
    "matchup": "Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer1.6451 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-1.3549 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-4.3549",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -108.0,
    "pick": "Las Vegas Raiders +3.5",
    "line": 3.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872986",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.680286+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.045190+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      20.92119746245155,
      22.776126862793607
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      17.92119746245155,
      19.776126862793607
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 1.6450705996579416,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.3549294003420584,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -4.354929400342058,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          14.921197462451548,
          19.776126862793607
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.3549294003420584,
        "adverse_score": [
          14.921197462451548,
          22.776126862793607
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -4.354929400342058
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6450705996579416,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            22.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.3549294003420584
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.645070599657942,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.6450705996579416
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.645070599657942,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.645070599657942
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.3549294003420584,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            22.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.354929400342058
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6450705996579416,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.3549294003420584
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.645070599657942,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.6450705996579416
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "New England cornerback unit depletion",
        "detail": "Both first-listed outside corners CarltonDavisIII and ChristianGonzalezOUT; ChanningCanada and KaronPruntyOUT, CharlesWoodsQ. This is a depleted starting and reserve coverage unit. Its opposing-passing upside is not bounded by offensive human availability deductions or the generic3point turnover test.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "New England protection and front continuity",
        "detail": "Starting RT MorganMosesQ and Barmore/Elliss/DreMontJonesQ. Moses protection and front-seven rotation add unresolved mechanisms. LV TreyZuhnOUT is reserve C/RT; do not falsely call a missing starting lineman.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.6450705996579416,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 2.220588235294116,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 5.055612302264137,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872986",
    "matchup": "Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -115.0,
    "pick": "Under 45.5",
    "line": 45.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872986",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.680286+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.045190+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      20.92119746245155,
      22.776126862793607
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      17.92119746245155,
      19.776126862793607
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 7.802675674754845,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 7.802675674754845,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 4.802675674754845,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          17.92119746245155,
          19.776126862793607
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.802675674754845,
        "adverse_score": [
          20.92119746245155,
          19.776126862793607
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 4.802675674754845
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.92119746245155,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.802675674754845
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.92119746245155,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.802675674754845
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.92119746245155,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 10.802675674754845
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.802675674754845
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 10.802675674754845
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 16.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 13.802675674754845
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "New England cornerback unit depletion",
        "detail": "Both first-listed outside corners CarltonDavisIII and ChristianGonzalezOUT; ChanningCanada and KaronPruntyOUT, CharlesWoodsQ. This is a depleted starting and reserve coverage unit. Its opposing-passing upside is not bounded by offensive human availability deductions or the generic3point turnover test.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "New England protection and front continuity",
        "detail": "Starting RT MorganMosesQ and Barmore/Elliss/DreMontJonesQ. Moses protection and front-seven rotation add unresolved mechanisms. LV TreyZuhnOUT is reserve C/RT; do not falsely call a missing starting lineman.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.802675674754845,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -8.279411764705884,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -9.647662631875704,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872986",
    "matchup": "Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer1.6451 below required3",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-1.3549 below required3",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-4.3549",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -108.0,
    "pick": "Las Vegas Raiders +3.5",
    "line": 3.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872986",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.680286+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.045190+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      20.92119746245155,
      22.776126862793607
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      17.92119746245155,
      19.776126862793607
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 1.6450705996579416,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.3549294003420584,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -4.354929400342058,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          14.921197462451548,
          19.776126862793607
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.3549294003420584,
        "adverse_score": [
          14.921197462451548,
          22.776126862793607
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -4.354929400342058
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6450705996579416,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            22.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.3549294003420584
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.645070599657942,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.6450705996579416
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.645070599657942,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.645070599657942
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.3549294003420584,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            22.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.354929400342058
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6450705996579416,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.3549294003420584
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.645070599657942,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.6450705996579416
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "New England cornerback unit depletion",
        "detail": "Both first-listed outside corners CarltonDavisIII and ChristianGonzalezOUT; ChanningCanada and KaronPruntyOUT, CharlesWoodsQ. This is a depleted starting and reserve coverage unit. Its opposing-passing upside is not bounded by offensive human availability deductions or the generic3point turnover test.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "New England protection and front continuity",
        "detail": "Starting RT MorganMosesQ and Barmore/Elliss/DreMontJonesQ. Moses protection and front-seven rotation add unresolved mechanisms. LV TreyZuhnOUT is reserve C/RT; do not falsely call a missing starting lineman.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.6450705996579416,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 2.220588235294116,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 5.055612302264137,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872986",
    "matchup": "Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -115.0,
    "pick": "Under 45.5",
    "line": 45.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872986",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.680286+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.045190+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      20.92119746245155,
      22.776126862793607
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      17.92119746245155,
      19.776126862793607
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 7.802675674754845,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 7.802675674754845,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 4.802675674754845,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          17.92119746245155,
          19.776126862793607
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.802675674754845,
        "adverse_score": [
          20.92119746245155,
          19.776126862793607
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 4.802675674754845
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.92119746245155,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.802675674754845
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.92119746245155,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.802675674754845
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.92119746245155,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 10.802675674754845
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            19.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.802675674754845
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            16.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 10.802675674754845
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.921197462451548,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 16.802675674754845,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.92119746245155,
            13.776126862793607
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 13.802675674754845
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "New England cornerback unit depletion",
        "detail": "Both first-listed outside corners CarltonDavisIII and ChristianGonzalezOUT; ChanningCanada and KaronPruntyOUT, CharlesWoodsQ. This is a depleted starting and reserve coverage unit. Its opposing-passing upside is not bounded by offensive human availability deductions or the generic3point turnover test.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "New England protection and front continuity",
        "detail": "Starting RT MorganMosesQ and Barmore/Elliss/DreMontJonesQ. Moses protection and front-seven rotation add unresolved mechanisms. LV TreyZuhnOUT is reserve C/RT; do not falsely call a missing starting lineman.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.802675674754845,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -8.279411764705884,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -9.647662631875704,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 16.0 / 21.5

• Jalen Nailor: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 16.0 / 24.5; other team production 16.0 / 21.5
• Ashton Jeanty: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 16.0 / 24.5; other team production 16.0 / 21.5
• Mack Hollins: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 19.0 / 21.5; other team production 16.0 / 21.5
• Rhamondre Stevenson: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 19.0 / 21.5; other team production 16.0 / 21.5
• A.J. Brown: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 19.0 / 21.5; other team production 16.0 / 21.5

Primary

Conditional joint 13.5 / 22.0

• Jalen Nailor: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 13.5 / 25.0; other team production 13.5 / 22.0
• Ashton Jeanty: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 13.5 / 25.0; other team production 13.5 / 22.0
• Mack Hollins: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 16.5 / 22.0; other team production 13.5 / 22.0
• Rhamondre Stevenson: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 16.5 / 22.0; other team production 13.5 / 22.0
• A.J. Brown: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 16.5 / 22.0; other team production 13.5 / 22.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 18.0 / 20.0

• Jalen Nailor: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 18.0 / 23.0; other team production 18.0 / 20.0
• Ashton Jeanty: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 18.0 / 23.0; other team production 18.0 / 20.0
• Mack Hollins: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 20.0; other team production 18.0 / 20.0
• Rhamondre Stevenson: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.0 / 20.0; other team production 18.0 / 20.0
• A.J. Brown: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 20.0; other team production 18.0 / 20.0

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 18.0 / 20.0

• Jalen Nailor: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 18.0 / 23.0; other team production 18.0 / 20.0
• Ashton Jeanty: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 18.0 / 23.0; other team production 18.0 / 20.0
• Mack Hollins: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 20.0; other team production 18.0 / 20.0
• Rhamondre Stevenson: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.0 / 20.0; other team production 18.0 / 20.0
• A.J. Brown: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 20.0; other team production 18.0 / 20.0

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/67,88/forecast/hourly
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4686658/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4695193/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4890973/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5150247/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2991662/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4047646/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4382466/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4427095/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4432710/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4569173/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4686658/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4695193/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4890973/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/5150247/stats
• https://www.patriots.com/news/analysis-patriots-place-wr-a-j-brown-on-injured-reserve-sign-dt-daquan-jones

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872987",
    "matchup": "Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer1.9333 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-4.0667 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-7.0667",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -118.0,
    "pick": "Minnesota Vikings -1.5",
    "line": -1.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872987",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.951479+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.166191+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.268382352941174,
      20.835111928911882
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.268382352941174,
      17.835111928911882
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 1.933270424029292,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -4.066729575970708,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -7.066729575970708,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          15.268382352941174,
          17.835111928911882
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.066729575970708,
        "adverse_score": [
          15.268382352941174,
          20.835111928911882
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -7.066729575970708
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      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.268382352941174,
            17.835111928911882
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.933270424029292,
          "adverse_score": [
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          "stressed_buffer": -1.066729575970708
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.268382352941174,
            14.835111928911882
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.933270424029292,
          "adverse_score": [
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          "stressed_buffer": 1.933270424029292
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        {
          "score": [
            18.268382352941174,
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.066729575970708,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.268382352941174,
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          "stressed_buffer": -4.066729575970708
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.268382352941174,
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.933270424029292,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.268382352941174,
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          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.066729575970708
        },
        {
          "score": [
            15.268382352941174,
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          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.066729575970708,
          "adverse_score": [
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          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -7.066729575970708
        },
        {
          "score": [
            15.268382352941174,
            14.835111928911882
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.066729575970708,
          "adverse_score": [
            15.268382352941174,
            17.835111928911882
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.066729575970708
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      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Minnesota starting-tackle combination",
        "detail": "Starting LT DarrisawOUT and starting RT ONeillQ; reserve interior JacksonIR and MichaelJurgensQ. Skill-position receiver scenarios do not bound the resulting pass protection contingency.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "New Orleans defensive spine",
        "detail": "Starting LB KadenEllissOUT and FS JulianBlackmonQ, with current front rotation flags. Distinct from modeled Etienne/Kamara backfield absences.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.933270424029292,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -1.4529411764705884,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -2.812924919878192,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872987",
    "matchup": "Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.3965 below required5",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.3965 below required5",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.6035",
      "Total stress retains-0.6035, below1point",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Under 41.5",
    "line": 41.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872987",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.951479+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.166191+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.268382352941174,
      20.835111928911882
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    "adjusted_score": [
      21.268382352941174,
      17.835111928911882
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    "canonical_buffer": 2.3965057181469405,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.3965057181469405,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -0.6034942818530595,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.268382352941174,
          17.835111928911882
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3965057181469405,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.268382352941174,
          17.835111928911882
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        "stressed_buffer": -0.6034942818530595
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.268382352941174,
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3965057181469405,
          "adverse_score": [
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          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.6034942818530595
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.268382352941174,
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          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.3965057181469405,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.268382352941174,
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          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.3965057181469405
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        {
          "score": [
            18.268382352941174,
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.3965057181469405,
          "adverse_score": [
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          "stressed_buffer": 2.3965057181469405
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.268382352941174,
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.39650571814694,
          "adverse_score": [
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          "stressed_buffer": 5.3965057181469405
        },
        {
          "score": [
            15.268382352941174,
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.39650571814694,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.268382352941174,
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          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 5.3965057181469405
        },
        {
          "score": [
            15.268382352941174,
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 11.396505718146944,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.268382352941174,
            14.835111928911882
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          "stressed_buffer": 8.396505718146944
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      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Minnesota starting-tackle combination",
        "detail": "Starting LT DarrisawOUT and starting RT ONeillQ; reserve interior JacksonIR and MichaelJurgensQ. Skill-position receiver scenarios do not bound the resulting pass protection contingency.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "New Orleans defensive spine",
        "detail": "Starting LB KadenEllissOUT and FS JulianBlackmonQ, with current front rotation flags. Distinct from modeled Etienne/Kamara backfield absences.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.396505718146944,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -4.89411764705882,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -7.12230593211364,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872987",
    "matchup": "Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer1.9333 below required3",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-4.0667 below required3",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-7.0667",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -118.0,
    "pick": "Minnesota Vikings -1.5",
    "line": -1.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872987",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.951479+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.166191+00:00",
    "base_score": [
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    "adjusted_score": [
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    "canonical_buffer": 1.933270424029292,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -4.066729575970708,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -7.066729575970708,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          15.268382352941174,
          17.835111928911882
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.066729575970708,
        "adverse_score": [
          15.268382352941174,
          20.835111928911882
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -7.066729575970708
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.268382352941174,
            17.835111928911882
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.933270424029292,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.268382352941174,
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          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.066729575970708
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.268382352941174,
            14.835111928911882
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.933270424029292,
          "adverse_score": [
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          "stressed_buffer": 1.933270424029292
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.268382352941174,
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          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.066729575970708,
          "adverse_score": [
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          "stressed_buffer": -4.066729575970708
        },
        {
          "score": [
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.933270424029292,
          "adverse_score": [
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          "stressed_buffer": -1.066729575970708
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        {
          "score": [
            15.268382352941174,
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.066729575970708,
          "adverse_score": [
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          "stressed_buffer": -7.066729575970708
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        {
          "score": [
            15.268382352941174,
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          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.066729575970708,
          "adverse_score": [
            15.268382352941174,
            17.835111928911882
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.066729575970708
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Minnesota starting-tackle combination",
        "detail": "Starting LT DarrisawOUT and starting RT ONeillQ; reserve interior JacksonIR and MichaelJurgensQ. Skill-position receiver scenarios do not bound the resulting pass protection contingency.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "New Orleans defensive spine",
        "detail": "Starting LB KadenEllissOUT and FS JulianBlackmonQ, with current front rotation flags. Distinct from modeled Etienne/Kamara backfield absences.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.933270424029292,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -1.4529411764705884,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -2.812924919878192,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872987",
    "matchup": "Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.3965 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.3965 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.6035",
      "Total stress retains-0.6035, below1point",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Under 41.5",
    "line": 41.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872987",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.951479+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.166191+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.268382352941174,
      20.835111928911882
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.268382352941174,
      17.835111928911882
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.3965057181469405,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.3965057181469405,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -0.6034942818530595,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.268382352941174,
          17.835111928911882
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3965057181469405,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.268382352941174,
          17.835111928911882
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.6034942818530595
      },
      "scenario_count": 6,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.268382352941174,
            17.835111928911882
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3965057181469405,
          "adverse_score": [
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          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.6034942818530595
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.268382352941174,
            14.835111928911882
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.3965057181469405,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.268382352941174,
            14.835111928911882
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.3965057181469405
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.268382352941174,
            17.835111928911882
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.3965057181469405,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.268382352941174,
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          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.3965057181469405
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.268382352941174,
            14.835111928911882
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.39650571814694,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.268382352941174,
            14.835111928911882
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 5.3965057181469405
        },
        {
          "score": [
            15.268382352941174,
            17.835111928911882
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.39650571814694,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.268382352941174,
            17.835111928911882
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 5.3965057181469405
        },
        {
          "score": [
            15.268382352941174,
            14.835111928911882
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 11.396505718146944,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.268382352941174,
            14.835111928911882
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 8.396505718146944
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Minnesota starting-tackle combination",
        "detail": "Starting LT DarrisawOUT and starting RT ONeillQ; reserve interior JacksonIR and MichaelJurgensQ. Skill-position receiver scenarios do not bound the resulting pass protection contingency.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "New Orleans defensive spine",
        "detail": "Starting LB KadenEllissOUT and FS JulianBlackmonQ, with current front rotation flags. Distinct from modeled Etienne/Kamara backfield absences.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.396505718146944,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -4.89411764705882,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -7.12230593211364,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 20.0 / 17.0

• Justin Jefferson: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 20.0 / 20.0; other team production 20.0 / 17.0
• Jordan Addison: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 20.0 / 20.0; other team production 20.0 / 17.0
• Jordan Mason: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 20.0 / 20.0; other team production 20.0 / 17.0
• Alvin Kamara: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.0 / 17.0; other team production 20.0 / 17.0
• Travis Etienne Jr.: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 23.0 / 17.0; other team production 20.0 / 17.0

Primary

Conditional joint 19.5 / 15.0

• Justin Jefferson: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 19.5 / 18.0; other team production 19.5 / 15.0
• Jordan Addison: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 19.5 / 18.0; other team production 19.5 / 15.0
• Jordan Mason: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 19.5 / 18.0; other team production 19.5 / 15.0
• Alvin Kamara: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 22.5 / 15.0; other team production 19.5 / 15.0
• Travis Etienne Jr.: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 22.5 / 15.0; other team production 19.5 / 15.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 21.5 / 18.0

• Justin Jefferson: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 21.0; other team production 21.5 / 18.0
• Jordan Addison: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 21.0; other team production 21.5 / 18.0
• Jordan Mason: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 21.0; other team production 21.5 / 18.0
• Alvin Kamara: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 24.5 / 18.0; other team production 21.5 / 18.0
• Travis Etienne Jr.: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.5 / 18.0; other team production 21.5 / 18.0

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 21.5 / 18.0

• Justin Jefferson: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 21.0; other team production 21.5 / 18.0
• Jordan Addison: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 21.0; other team production 21.5 / 18.0
• Jordan Mason: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 21.0; other team production 21.5 / 18.0
• Alvin Kamara: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 24.5 / 18.0; other team production 21.5 / 18.0
• Travis Etienne Jr.: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.5 / 18.0; other team production 21.5 / 18.0

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4430656/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4565185/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3054850/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4239996/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4240631/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4262921/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4360569/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429205/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4430656/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4565185/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4599739/stats
• https://www.neworleanssaints.com/news/ulysses-bentley-iv-david-ojabo-saints-roster-moves-transaction-alert-october-1-2026
• https://www.vikings.com/team/app-links/transactions

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872988",
    "matchup": "New York Giants at Washington Commanders",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -108.0,
    "pick": "New York Giants +3.5",
    "line": 3.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872988",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031015+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.341632+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.48926055377082,
      22.88919838822919
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.48926055377082,
      19.88919838822919
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 5.10006216554163,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 5.10006216554163,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 2.1000621655416296,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.48926055377082,
          19.88919838822919
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.10006216554163,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.48926055377082,
          22.88919838822919
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 2.1000621655416296
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            19.88919838822919
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.10006216554163,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            22.88919838822919
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.1000621655416296
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            16.88919838822919
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.10006216554163,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            19.88919838822919
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 5.10006216554163
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Washington safety depth",
        "detail": "First-listed SS NickCrossOUT; backupSS TylerOwens and backupFS PercyButlerOUT. One starter plus reserves creates coverage continuity risk, distinguished from NE/DEN losing both starting corners. TreyAmos officialQ versus depthIR retained as a reserve-corner conflict; never silently declare cleared.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Landover wet conditions",
        "detail": "Official NWS afternoon rain-showers-likely68–72percent with10–12mph winds; possession/handling uncertainty remains. NYG Golston/Pinnock are second-listed defensive roles; AndrewThomasFP/no designation, so no unsupported starting-tackle absence.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.10006216554163,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -4.502941176470586,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -1.4087058844911553,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872988",
    "matchup": "New York Giants at Washington Commanders",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer0.1215 below required5",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.1215 below required5",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.8785",
      "Total stress retains-2.8785, below1point",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -105.0,
    "pick": "Under 41.5",
    "line": 41.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872988",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031015+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.341632+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.48926055377082,
      22.88919838822919
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.48926055377082,
      19.88919838822919
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 0.12154105799999115,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.12154105799999115,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -2.878458942000009,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.48926055377082,
          19.88919838822919
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.12154105799999115,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.48926055377082,
          19.88919838822919
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.878458942000009
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            19.88919838822919
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.12154105799999115,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.48926055377082,
            19.88919838822919
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.878458942000009
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            16.88919838822919
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.121541057999991,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.48926055377082,
            16.88919838822919
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.12154105799999115
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Washington safety depth",
        "detail": "First-listed SS NickCrossOUT; backupSS TylerOwens and backupFS PercyButlerOUT. One starter plus reserves creates coverage continuity risk, distinguished from NE/DEN losing both starting corners. TreyAmos officialQ versus depthIR retained as a reserve-corner conflict; never silently declare cleared.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Landover wet conditions",
        "detail": "Official NWS afternoon rain-showers-likely68–72percent with10–12mph winds; possession/handling uncertainty remains. NYG Golston/Pinnock are second-listed defensive roles; AndrewThomasFP/no designation, so no unsupported starting-tackle absence.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.12154105799999115,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -0.23823529411764355,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 0.10087161291109226,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872988",
    "matchup": "New York Giants at Washington Commanders",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE",
    "decision": "Free Pick 2",
    "reasons": [
      "All recorded numerical and risk gates passed; ranking quota is separate."
    ],
    "price": -108.0,
    "pick": "New York Giants +3.5",
    "line": 3.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872988",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031015+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.341632+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.48926055377082,
      22.88919838822919
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.48926055377082,
      19.88919838822919
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 5.10006216554163,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 5.10006216554163,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 2.1000621655416296,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.48926055377082,
          19.88919838822919
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.10006216554163,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.48926055377082,
          22.88919838822919
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 2.1000621655416296
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            19.88919838822919
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.10006216554163,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            22.88919838822919
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.1000621655416296
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            16.88919838822919
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.10006216554163,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            19.88919838822919
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 5.10006216554163
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Washington safety depth",
        "detail": "First-listed SS NickCrossOUT; backupSS TylerOwens and backupFS PercyButlerOUT. One starter plus reserves creates coverage continuity risk, distinguished from NE/DEN losing both starting corners. TreyAmos officialQ versus depthIR retained as a reserve-corner conflict; never silently declare cleared.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Landover wet conditions",
        "detail": "Official NWS afternoon rain-showers-likely68–72percent with10–12mph winds; possession/handling uncertainty remains. NYG Golston/Pinnock are second-listed defensive roles; AndrewThomasFP/no designation, so no unsupported starting-tackle absence.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.10006216554163,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -4.502941176470586,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -1.4087058844911553,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872988",
    "matchup": "New York Giants at Washington Commanders",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer0.1215 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.1215 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.8785",
      "Total stress retains-2.8785, below1point",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -105.0,
    "pick": "Under 41.5",
    "line": 41.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872988",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031015+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.341632+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.48926055377082,
      22.88919838822919
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.48926055377082,
      19.88919838822919
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 0.12154105799999115,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.12154105799999115,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -2.878458942000009,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.48926055377082,
          19.88919838822919
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.12154105799999115,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.48926055377082,
          19.88919838822919
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.878458942000009
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            19.88919838822919
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.12154105799999115,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.48926055377082,
            19.88919838822919
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.878458942000009
        },
        {
          "score": [
            21.48926055377082,
            16.88919838822919
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.121541057999991,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.48926055377082,
            16.88919838822919
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.12154105799999115
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Washington safety depth",
        "detail": "First-listed SS NickCrossOUT; backupSS TylerOwens and backupFS PercyButlerOUT. One starter plus reserves creates coverage continuity risk, distinguished from NE/DEN losing both starting corners. TreyAmos officialQ versus depthIR retained as a reserve-corner conflict; never silently declare cleared.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Landover wet conditions",
        "detail": "Official NWS afternoon rain-showers-likely68–72percent with10–12mph winds; possession/handling uncertainty remains. NYG Golston/Pinnock are second-listed defensive roles; AndrewThomasFP/no designation, so no unsupported starting-tackle absence.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.12154105799999115,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -0.23823529411764355,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 0.10087161291109226,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 21.0 / 20.0

• Jaxson Dart: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 23.0; other team production 21.0 / 20.0
• Stefon Diggs: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.0 / 20.0; other team production 21.0 / 20.0
• Terry McLaurin: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 24.0 / 20.0; other team production 21.0 / 20.0

Primary

Conditional joint 20.0 / 22.0

• Jaxson Dart: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 20.0 / 25.0; other team production 20.0 / 22.0
• Stefon Diggs: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 23.0 / 22.0; other team production 20.0 / 22.0
• Terry McLaurin: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.0 / 22.0; other team production 20.0 / 22.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 21.5 / 20.0

• Jaxson Dart: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 23.0; other team production 21.5 / 20.0
• Stefon Diggs: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.5 / 20.0; other team production 21.5 / 20.0
• Terry McLaurin: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 24.5 / 20.0; other team production 21.5 / 20.0

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 21.5 / 20.0

• Jaxson Dart: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 23.0; other team production 21.5 / 20.0
• Stefon Diggs: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.5 / 20.0; other team production 21.5 / 20.0
• Terry McLaurin: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 24.5 / 20.0; other team production 21.5 / 20.0

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LWX/102,73/forecast/hourly
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/19/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/19/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2969939/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2976212/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3121422/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4361577/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4567156/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4689114/stats
• https://www.giants.com/team/transactions/

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872990",
    "matchup": "Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.1753 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.8247",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Chicago Bears -1.5",
    "line": -1.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872990",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.283790+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      25.84769288150042,
      21.172435522504458
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      22.84769288150042,
      15.172435522504458
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 6.175257358995964,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.17525735899596384,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -2.824742641004036,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          19.84769288150042,
          18.172435522504458
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.17525735899596384,
        "adverse_score": [
          19.84769288150042,
          21.172435522504458
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.824742641004036
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.175257358995964,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            21.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.17525735899596384
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.175257358995964,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.175257358995964
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.17525735899596384,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            21.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.824742641004036
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.175257358995964,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.17525735899596384
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Green Bay interior protection",
        "detail": "Starting LG AaronBanks DOUBTFUL, reserve JacobMonk DOUBTFUL and reserve center JagerBurtonQ. This is a guard/interior reserve transition, not two missing starting tackles; no validated separate scoring effect.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Green Bay interior run defense",
        "detail": "Starting NT JavonHargraveQ with defensive reserve thinning. One starting interior defender, not two starting corners; handling retained as medium unless later evidence escalates. Chicago ShemarTurner team report OUT versus leagueQ is a reserve-role status correction, not a new covered offensive loss.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 6.175257358995964,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -3.827573529411765,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -0.6654814271139422,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872990",
    "matchup": "Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -118.0,
    "pick": "Under 47.5",
    "line": 47.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872990",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.283790+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      25.84769288150042,
      21.172435522504458
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      22.84769288150042,
      15.172435522504458
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 9.479871595995121,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.479871595995121,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 3.479871595995121,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          22.84769288150042,
          18.172435522504458
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.479871595995121,
        "adverse_score": [
          25.84769288150042,
          18.172435522504458
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.479871595995121
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.479871595995121,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.479871595995121
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.479871595995121,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 6.479871595995121
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.479871595995121,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 6.479871595995121
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.479871595995121,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 9.479871595995121
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Green Bay interior protection",
        "detail": "Starting LG AaronBanks DOUBTFUL, reserve JacobMonk DOUBTFUL and reserve center JagerBurtonQ. This is a guard/interior reserve transition, not two missing starting tackles; no validated separate scoring effect.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Green Bay interior run defense",
        "detail": "Starting NT JavonHargraveQ with defensive reserve thinning. One starting interior defender, not two starting corners; handling retained as medium unless later evidence escalates. Chicago ShemarTurner team report OUT versus leagueQ is a reserve-role status correction, not a new covered offensive loss.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 9.479871595995121,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -11.062867647058823,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -11.33074107723256,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872990",
    "matchup": "Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.1753 below required3",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.8247",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Chicago Bears -1.5",
    "line": -1.5,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872990",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.283790+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      25.84769288150042,
      21.172435522504458
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      22.84769288150042,
      15.172435522504458
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 6.175257358995964,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.17525735899596384,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -2.824742641004036,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          19.84769288150042,
          18.172435522504458
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.17525735899596384,
        "adverse_score": [
          19.84769288150042,
          21.172435522504458
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.824742641004036
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.175257358995964,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            21.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.17525735899596384
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.175257358995964,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.175257358995964
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.17525735899596384,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            21.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.824742641004036
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.175257358995964,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.17525735899596384
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Green Bay interior protection",
        "detail": "Starting LG AaronBanks DOUBTFUL, reserve JacobMonk DOUBTFUL and reserve center JagerBurtonQ. This is a guard/interior reserve transition, not two missing starting tackles; no validated separate scoring effect.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Green Bay interior run defense",
        "detail": "Starting NT JavonHargraveQ with defensive reserve thinning. One starting interior defender, not two starting corners; handling retained as medium unless later evidence escalates. Chicago ShemarTurner team report OUT versus leagueQ is a reserve-role status correction, not a new covered offensive loss.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 6.175257358995964,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -3.827573529411765,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -0.6654814271139422,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872990",
    "matchup": "Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE",
    "decision": "Free Pick 1",
    "reasons": [
      "All recorded numerical and risk gates passed; ranking quota is separate."
    ],
    "price": -118.0,
    "pick": "Under 47.5",
    "line": 47.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872990",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.283790+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      25.84769288150042,
      21.172435522504458
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      22.84769288150042,
      15.172435522504458
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 9.479871595995121,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.479871595995121,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 3.479871595995121,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          22.84769288150042,
          18.172435522504458
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.479871595995121,
        "adverse_score": [
          25.84769288150042,
          18.172435522504458
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.479871595995121
      },
      "scenario_count": 4,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.479871595995121,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.479871595995121
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.479871595995121,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 6.479871595995121
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.479871595995121,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            18.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 6.479871595995121
        },
        {
          "score": [
            19.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.479871595995121,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.84769288150042,
            15.172435522504458
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 9.479871595995121
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Green Bay interior protection",
        "detail": "Starting LG AaronBanks DOUBTFUL, reserve JacobMonk DOUBTFUL and reserve center JagerBurtonQ. This is a guard/interior reserve transition, not two missing starting tackles; no validated separate scoring effect.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Green Bay interior run defense",
        "detail": "Starting NT JavonHargraveQ with defensive reserve thinning. One starting interior defender, not two starting corners; handling retained as medium unless later evidence escalates. Chicago ShemarTurner team report OUT versus leagueQ is a reserve-role status correction, not a new covered offensive loss.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 9.479871595995121,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -11.062867647058823,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -11.33074107723256,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 21.0 / 15.5

• Kyle Monangai: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 21.5; other team production 21.0 / 15.5
• Caleb Williams: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.0 / 21.5; other team production 21.0 / 15.5
• Jayden Reed: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.0 / 18.5; other team production 21.0 / 18.5
• Josh Jacobs: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 24.0 / 18.5; other team production 21.0 / 18.5

Primary

Conditional joint 19.0 / 17.0

• Kyle Monangai: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 19.0 / 23.0; other team production 19.0 / 17.0
• Caleb Williams: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 19.0 / 23.0; other team production 19.0 / 17.0
• Jayden Reed: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 22.0 / 20.0; other team production 19.0 / 20.0
• Josh Jacobs: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 22.0 / 20.0; other team production 19.0 / 20.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 23.0 / 15.0

• Kyle Monangai: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 23.0 / 21.0; other team production 23.0 / 15.0
• Caleb Williams: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.0 / 21.0; other team production 23.0 / 15.0
• Jayden Reed: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 26.0 / 18.0; other team production 23.0 / 18.0
• Josh Jacobs: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 26.0 / 18.0; other team production 23.0 / 18.0

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 23.0 / 15.0

• Kyle Monangai: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 23.0 / 21.0; other team production 23.0 / 15.0
• Caleb Williams: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.0 / 21.0; other team production 23.0 / 15.0
• Jayden Reed: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 26.0 / 18.0; other team production 23.0 / 18.0
• Josh Jacobs: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 26.0 / 18.0; other team production 23.0 / 18.0

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-places-packers-rb-josh-jacobs-commissioner-exempt-list
• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/GRB/78,31/forecast/hourly
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4608686/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4047365/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4259545/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4362249/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429023/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4430191/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4431611/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4434153/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4608686/stats
• https://www.packers.com/news/packers-ready-to-pull-together-to-fill-jayden-reed-s-void-oct-2-2026

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872989",
    "matchup": "Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer3.6778 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-2.3222 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-5.3222",
      "3 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Los Angeles Chargers +3.5",
    "line": 3.5,
    "selection_side": "home",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872989",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.261159+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      21.472645308123248,
      21.65039618059506
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      18.472645308123248,
      18.65039618059506
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 3.6777508724718118,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.3222491275281882,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -5.322249127528188,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          18.472645308123248,
          12.65039618059506
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.3222491275281882,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.472645308123248,
          12.65039618059506
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.322249127528188
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            18.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6777508724718118,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            18.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.6777508724718118
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            15.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.6777508724718118,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            15.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.3222491275281882
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            12.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.3222491275281882,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            12.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -5.322249127528188
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Denver starting corners",
        "detail": "Both first-listed outsideCBs SurtainII and MossOUT. No quantified replacement coverage bound; consistent treatment with NewEngland.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Chargers protection and secondary",
        "detail": "Starting RT JoeAltOUT with multipleOLabsences and backupBransonTaylorQ; starting SS DerwinJames and RCB DonteJacksonOUT. Opponent scoring and protection pathways are additional to the Johnston/Njoku/McConkey human branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "SoFi exterior conditions",
        "detail": "Exterior NWS15–20mph wind, but coveredfield/open sides. Do not equate exteriorrain with on-fieldrain; airflow uncertainty retained.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 3,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 3.6777508724718118,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 2.955882352941174,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 2.8231514876773254,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872989",
    "matchup": "Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer4.3770 below required5",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer4.3770 below required5",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -105.0,
    "pick": "Under 41.5",
    "line": 41.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872989",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.261159+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      21.472645308123248,
      21.65039618059506
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      18.472645308123248,
      18.65039618059506
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 4.376958511281693,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.376958511281693,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.3769585112816927,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          18.472645308123248,
          18.65039618059506
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.376958511281693,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.472645308123248,
          18.65039618059506
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.3769585112816927
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            18.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.376958511281693,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            18.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.3769585112816927
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            15.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.376958511281693,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            15.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.376958511281693
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            12.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.376958511281693,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            12.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.376958511281693
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Denver starting corners",
        "detail": "Both first-listed outsideCBs SurtainII and MossOUT. No quantified replacement coverage bound; consistent treatment with NewEngland.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Chargers protection and secondary",
        "detail": "Starting RT JoeAltOUT with multipleOLabsences and backupBransonTaylorQ; starting SS DerwinJames and RCB DonteJacksonOUT. Opponent scoring and protection pathways are additional to the Johnston/Njoku/McConkey human branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "SoFi exterior conditions",
        "detail": "Exterior NWS15–20mph wind, but coveredfield/open sides. Do not equate exteriorrain with on-fieldrain; airflow uncertainty retained.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.376958511281693,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -5.391176470588235,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -6.342503450665063,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872989",
    "matchup": "Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-2.3222 below required3",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-5.3222",
      "3 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Los Angeles Chargers +3.5",
    "line": 3.5,
    "selection_side": "home",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872989",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.261159+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      21.472645308123248,
      21.65039618059506
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      18.472645308123248,
      18.65039618059506
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 3.6777508724718118,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.3222491275281882,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -5.322249127528188,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          18.472645308123248,
          12.65039618059506
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.3222491275281882,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.472645308123248,
          12.65039618059506
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -5.322249127528188
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            18.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6777508724718118,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            18.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.6777508724718118
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            15.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.6777508724718118,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            15.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.3222491275281882
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            12.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.3222491275281882,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            12.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -5.322249127528188
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Denver starting corners",
        "detail": "Both first-listed outsideCBs SurtainII and MossOUT. No quantified replacement coverage bound; consistent treatment with NewEngland.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Chargers protection and secondary",
        "detail": "Starting RT JoeAltOUT with multipleOLabsences and backupBransonTaylorQ; starting SS DerwinJames and RCB DonteJacksonOUT. Opponent scoring and protection pathways are additional to the Johnston/Njoku/McConkey human branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "SoFi exterior conditions",
        "detail": "Exterior NWS15–20mph wind, but coveredfield/open sides. Do not equate exteriorrain with on-fieldrain; airflow uncertainty retained.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 3,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 3.6777508724718118,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 2.955882352941174,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 2.8231514876773254,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872989",
    "matchup": "Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -105.0,
    "pick": "Under 41.5",
    "line": 41.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872989",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.261159+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      21.472645308123248,
      21.65039618059506
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      18.472645308123248,
      18.65039618059506
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 4.376958511281693,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.376958511281693,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.3769585112816927,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          18.472645308123248,
          18.65039618059506
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.376958511281693,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.472645308123248,
          18.65039618059506
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.3769585112816927
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            18.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.376958511281693,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            18.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.3769585112816927
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            15.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.376958511281693,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            15.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.376958511281693
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.472645308123248,
            12.65039618059506
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.376958511281693,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.472645308123248,
            12.65039618059506
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.376958511281693
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Denver starting corners",
        "detail": "Both first-listed outsideCBs SurtainII and MossOUT. No quantified replacement coverage bound; consistent treatment with NewEngland.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Chargers protection and secondary",
        "detail": "Starting RT JoeAltOUT with multipleOLabsences and backupBransonTaylorQ; starting SS DerwinJames and RCB DonteJacksonOUT. Opponent scoring and protection pathways are additional to the Johnston/Njoku/McConkey human branches.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "SoFi exterior conditions",
        "detail": "Exterior NWS15–20mph wind, but coveredfield/open sides. Do not equate exteriorrain with on-fieldrain; airflow uncertainty retained.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.376958511281693,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -5.391176470588235,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -6.342503450665063,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 18.5 / 18.0

• Pat Bryant: confirmed unavailable; isolated 18.5 / 21.0; other team production 18.5 / 18.0
• Quentin Johnston: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 18.0; other team production 18.5 / 18.0
• Ladd McConkey: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 18.0; other team production 18.5 / 18.0
• David Njoku: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 18.0; other team production 18.5 / 18.0

Primary

Conditional joint 18.0 / 17.0

• Pat Bryant: confirmed unavailable; isolated 18.0 / 20.0; other team production 18.0 / 17.0
• Quentin Johnston: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 17.0; other team production 18.0 / 17.0
• Ladd McConkey: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.0 / 17.0; other team production 18.0 / 17.0
• David Njoku: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 17.0; other team production 18.0 / 17.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 18.5 / 18.5

• Pat Bryant: confirmed unavailable; isolated 18.5 / 21.5; other team production 18.5 / 18.5
• Quentin Johnston: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 18.5; other team production 18.5 / 18.5
• Ladd McConkey: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 18.5; other team production 18.5 / 18.5
• David Njoku: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 18.5; other team production 18.5 / 18.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 18.5 / 18.5

• Pat Bryant: confirmed unavailable; isolated 18.5 / 21.5; other team production 18.5 / 18.5
• Quentin Johnston: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 18.5; other team production 18.5 / 18.5
• Ladd McConkey: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 18.5; other team production 18.5 / 18.5
• David Njoku: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 18.5; other team production 18.5 / 18.5

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LOX/151,41/forecast/hourly
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4595342/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3051738/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3123076/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4039057/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429025/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4595342/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4600981/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4612826/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4686612/stats
• https://www.chargers.com/news/charlie-kolar-david-njoku-injured-reserve-fantasy
• https://www.chargers.com/news/david-njoku-injured-reserve-sign-marquez-valdes-scantling-active-roster-2026
• https://www.chargers.com/news/injury-report-mcconkey-johnston-alt-week-5-broncos
• https://www.chargers.com/news/players-to-watch-bills-week-3-preview
• https://www.chargers.com/team/injury-report/
• https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/broncos-promote-wr-lil-jordan-humphrey-to-active-roster-place-wr-pat-bryant-on-ir
• https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/injuryreport/injury-report-cbs-pat-surtain-ii-riley-moss-ruled-out-for-broncos-week-5-game-vs-chargers

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872991",
    "matchup": "Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer3.6148 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer3.6148 below required4",
      "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Arizona Cardinals +5.5",
    "line": 5.5,
    "selection_side": "home",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872991",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.254873+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      28.656250000000004,
      26.771098922523553
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      28.656250000000004,
      26.771098922523553
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 3.6148489225235494,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.6148489225235494,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 0.6148489225235494,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          28.656250000000004,
          26.771098922523553
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6148489225235494,
        "adverse_score": [
          31.656250000000004,
          26.771098922523553
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.6148489225235494
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            28.656250000000004,
            26.771098922523553
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6148489225235494,
          "adverse_score": [
            31.656250000000004,
            26.771098922523553
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.6148489225235494
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Interior defensive availability",
        "detail": "Detroit first-listed RDT TyleikWilliamsQ and Arizona first-listed RDT WalterNolenQ; interior rotation uncertainty. Detroit Branch/YaSin are second-listed in currentdepth; preserve established-role context without relabeling every reserve as a starter.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Arizona safety role",
        "detail": "First-listed FS AndrewWingardOUT. One confirmed safety replacement, without the multiple-starting-corner mechanism of NE/DEN. Reserve line absences on both teams do not automatically trigger a fixed deduction.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 3.614848922523546,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 2.352941176470587,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 1.3135869655823136,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872991",
    "matchup": "Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer0.9273 below required5",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.9273 below required5",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.0727",
      "Total stress retains-2.0727, below1point",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -115.0,
    "pick": "Over 54.5",
    "line": 54.5,
    "selection_side": "over",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872991",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.254873+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      28.656250000000004,
      26.771098922523553
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      28.656250000000004,
      26.771098922523553
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 0.9273489225235565,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.9273489225235565,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -2.0726510774764435,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          28.656250000000004,
          26.771098922523553
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.9273489225235565,
        "adverse_score": [
          25.656250000000004,
          26.771098922523553
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.0726510774764435
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            28.656250000000004,
            26.771098922523553
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.9273489225235565,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.656250000000004,
            26.771098922523553
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.0726510774764435
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Interior defensive availability",
        "detail": "Detroit first-listed RDT TyleikWilliamsQ and Arizona first-listed RDT WalterNolenQ; interior rotation uncertainty. Detroit Branch/YaSin are second-listed in currentdepth; preserve established-role context without relabeling every reserve as a starter.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Arizona safety role",
        "detail": "First-listed FS AndrewWingardOUT. One confirmed safety replacement, without the multiple-starting-corner mechanism of NE/DEN. Reserve line absences on both teams do not automatically trigger a fixed deduction.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.9273489225235565,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -1.3470588235294159,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 0.32537351787823354,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872991",
    "matchup": "Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE",
    "decision": "ELIGIBLE_NOT_PUBLISHED",
    "reasons": [
      "All recorded numerical and risk gates passed; ranking quota is separate."
    ],
    "price": -112.0,
    "pick": "Arizona Cardinals +5.5",
    "line": 5.5,
    "selection_side": "home",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872991",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.254873+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      28.656250000000004,
      26.771098922523553
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      28.656250000000004,
      26.771098922523553
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 3.6148489225235494,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.6148489225235494,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 0.6148489225235494,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          28.656250000000004,
          26.771098922523553
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6148489225235494,
        "adverse_score": [
          31.656250000000004,
          26.771098922523553
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.6148489225235494
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            28.656250000000004,
            26.771098922523553
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6148489225235494,
          "adverse_score": [
            31.656250000000004,
            26.771098922523553
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.6148489225235494
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Interior defensive availability",
        "detail": "Detroit first-listed RDT TyleikWilliamsQ and Arizona first-listed RDT WalterNolenQ; interior rotation uncertainty. Detroit Branch/YaSin are second-listed in currentdepth; preserve established-role context without relabeling every reserve as a starter.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Arizona safety role",
        "detail": "First-listed FS AndrewWingardOUT. One confirmed safety replacement, without the multiple-starting-corner mechanism of NE/DEN. Reserve line absences on both teams do not automatically trigger a fixed deduction.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 3.614848922523546,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 2.352941176470587,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 1.3135869655823136,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872991",
    "matchup": "Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer0.9273 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.9273 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.0727",
      "Total stress retains-2.0727, below1point",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -115.0,
    "pick": "Over 54.5",
    "line": 54.5,
    "selection_side": "over",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872991",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.254873+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      28.656250000000004,
      26.771098922523553
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      28.656250000000004,
      26.771098922523553
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 0.9273489225235565,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.9273489225235565,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -2.0726510774764435,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          28.656250000000004,
          26.771098922523553
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.9273489225235565,
        "adverse_score": [
          25.656250000000004,
          26.771098922523553
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.0726510774764435
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            28.656250000000004,
            26.771098922523553
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.9273489225235565,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.656250000000004,
            26.771098922523553
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.0726510774764435
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Interior defensive availability",
        "detail": "Detroit first-listed RDT TyleikWilliamsQ and Arizona first-listed RDT WalterNolenQ; interior rotation uncertainty. Detroit Branch/YaSin are second-listed in currentdepth; preserve established-role context without relabeling every reserve as a starter.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Arizona safety role",
        "detail": "First-listed FS AndrewWingardOUT. One confirmed safety replacement, without the multiple-starting-corner mechanism of NE/DEN. Reserve line absences on both teams do not automatically trigger a fixed deduction.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 2,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 1,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.9273489225235565,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -1.3470588235294159,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 0.32537351787823354,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/22/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/22/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/8/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/8/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872992",
    "matchup": "San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.4289 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-3.5711 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-6.5711",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -105.0,
    "pick": "San Francisco 49ers +3",
    "line": 3.0,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872992",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.051776+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.290761+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      23.35419260667654,
      23.925245450394073
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      20.35419260667654,
      20.925245450394073
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.4289471562824687,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -3.5710528437175313,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -6.571052843717531,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          14.354192606676541,
          20.925245450394073
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.5710528437175313,
        "adverse_score": [
          14.354192606676541,
          23.925245450394073
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -6.571052843717531
      },
      "scenario_count": 9,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            23.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.428947156282469,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.4289471562824687
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.428947156282469,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 5.428947156282469
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.5710528437175313,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            23.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.5710528437175313
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.428947156282469,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.4289471562824687
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.5710528437175313,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            23.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -6.571052843717531
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.5710528437175313,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.5710528437175313
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "San Francisco pressure and coverage combination",
        "detail": "First-listed RDE NickBosaOUT, firstSS MarquesSigleOUT and firstnickel UptonStoutQ. Elite edge loss plus secondary contingency creates an independent opposing-offense pathway outside receiver/RB human scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Seattle defensive reserve losses",
        "detail": "JulianNeal and ChazzSurratt are reserve/support roles in currentreview. No second missing starter inferred from injury count; SF Juszczyk blocking absence remains an unestimated supporting mechanism.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.4289471562824687,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -0.5941176470588267,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 3.1561844080480483,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872992",
    "matchup": "San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer4.2206 below required5",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer4.2206 below required5",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -105.0,
    "pick": "Under 45.5",
    "line": 45.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872992",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.051776+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.290761+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      23.35419260667654,
      23.925245450394073
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      20.35419260667654,
      20.925245450394073
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 4.220561942929386,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.220561942929386,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.2205619429293861,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          20.35419260667654,
          20.925245450394073
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.220561942929386,
        "adverse_score": [
          23.35419260667654,
          20.925245450394073
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.2205619429293861
      },
      "scenario_count": 9,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.2205619429293861
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 10.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 10.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 16.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 13.220561942929386
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "San Francisco pressure and coverage combination",
        "detail": "First-listed RDE NickBosaOUT, firstSS MarquesSigleOUT and firstnickel UptonStoutQ. Elite edge loss plus secondary contingency creates an independent opposing-offense pathway outside receiver/RB human scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Seattle defensive reserve losses",
        "detail": "JulianNeal and ChazzSurratt are reserve/support roles in currentreview. No second missing starter inferred from injury count; SF Juszczyk blocking absence remains an unestimated supporting mechanism.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.220561942929386,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -5.364705882352936,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -5.830299693442875,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872992",
    "matchup": "San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.4289 below required3",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-3.5711 below required3",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-6.5711",
      "2 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -105.0,
    "pick": "San Francisco 49ers +3",
    "line": 3.0,
    "selection_side": "away",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872992",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.051776+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.290761+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      23.35419260667654,
      23.925245450394073
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      20.35419260667654,
      20.925245450394073
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.4289471562824687,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -3.5710528437175313,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -6.571052843717531,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          14.354192606676541,
          20.925245450394073
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.5710528437175313,
        "adverse_score": [
          14.354192606676541,
          23.925245450394073
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -6.571052843717531
      },
      "scenario_count": 9,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            23.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.428947156282469,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.4289471562824687
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.428947156282469,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 5.428947156282469
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.5710528437175313,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            23.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.5710528437175313
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.428947156282469,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 2.4289471562824687
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.5710528437175313,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            23.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -6.571052843717531
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.5710528437175313,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.5710528437175313
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687,
          "adverse_score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "San Francisco pressure and coverage combination",
        "detail": "First-listed RDE NickBosaOUT, firstSS MarquesSigleOUT and firstnickel UptonStoutQ. Elite edge loss plus secondary contingency creates an independent opposing-offense pathway outside receiver/RB human scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Seattle defensive reserve losses",
        "detail": "JulianNeal and ChazzSurratt are reserve/support roles in currentreview. No second missing starter inferred from injury count; SF Juszczyk blocking absence remains an unestimated supporting mechanism.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.4289471562824687,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -0.5941176470588267,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 3.1561844080480483,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872992",
    "matchup": "San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "1 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -105.0,
    "pick": "Under 45.5",
    "line": 45.5,
    "selection_side": "under",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872992",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.051776+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.290761+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      23.35419260667654,
      23.925245450394073
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      20.35419260667654,
      20.925245450394073
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 4.220561942929386,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.220561942929386,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 1.2205619429293861,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          20.35419260667654,
          20.925245450394073
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.220561942929386,
        "adverse_score": [
          23.35419260667654,
          20.925245450394073
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 1.2205619429293861
      },
      "scenario_count": 9,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.2205619429293861
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            23.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 4.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            20.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 10.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            20.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            17.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 10.220561942929386
        },
        {
          "score": [
            14.354192606676541,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 16.220561942929386,
          "adverse_score": [
            17.35419260667654,
            14.925245450394073
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 13.220561942929386
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "San Francisco pressure and coverage combination",
        "detail": "First-listed RDE NickBosaOUT, firstSS MarquesSigleOUT and firstnickel UptonStoutQ. Elite edge loss plus secondary contingency creates an independent opposing-offense pathway outside receiver/RB human scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Seattle defensive reserve losses",
        "detail": "JulianNeal and ChazzSurratt are reserve/support roles in currentreview. No second missing starter inferred from injury count; SF Juszczyk blocking absence remains an unestimated supporting mechanism.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.220561942929386,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -5.364705882352936,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -5.830299693442875,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 19.0 / 21.5

• Ricky Pearsall: confirmed unavailable; isolated 19.0 / 24.5; other team production 19.0 / 21.5
• Christian Kirk: confirmed unavailable; isolated 19.0 / 24.5; other team production 19.0 / 21.5
• Demarcus Robinson: conditional if material intended receiver role is assumed; isolated 19.0 / 24.5; other team production 19.0 / 21.5
• Jadarian Price: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 22.0 / 21.5; other team production 19.0 / 21.5
• Zach Charbonnet: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 22.0 / 21.5; other team production 19.0 / 21.5
• George Holani: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 22.0 / 21.5; other team production 19.0 / 21.5

Primary

Conditional joint 17.0 / 23.0

• Ricky Pearsall: confirmed unavailable; isolated 17.0 / 26.0; other team production 17.0 / 23.0
• Christian Kirk: confirmed unavailable; isolated 17.0 / 26.0; other team production 17.0 / 23.0
• Demarcus Robinson: conditional if material intended receiver role is assumed; isolated 17.0 / 26.0; other team production 17.0 / 23.0
• Jadarian Price: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 20.0 / 23.0; other team production 17.0 / 23.0
• Zach Charbonnet: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 20.0 / 23.0; other team production 17.0 / 23.0
• George Holani: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 20.0 / 23.0; other team production 17.0 / 23.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 20.5 / 21.0

• Ricky Pearsall: confirmed unavailable; isolated 20.5 / 24.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Christian Kirk: confirmed unavailable; isolated 20.5 / 24.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Demarcus Robinson: conditional if material intended receiver role is assumed; isolated 20.5 / 24.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Jadarian Price: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 23.5 / 21.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Zach Charbonnet: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 23.5 / 21.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• George Holani: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.5 / 21.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 20.5 / 21.0

• Ricky Pearsall: confirmed unavailable; isolated 20.5 / 24.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Christian Kirk: confirmed unavailable; isolated 20.5 / 24.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Demarcus Robinson: conditional if material intended receiver role is assumed; isolated 20.5 / 24.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Jadarian Price: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 23.5 / 21.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• Zach Charbonnet: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 23.5 / 21.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0
• George Holani: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 23.5 / 21.0; other team production 20.5 / 21.0

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/SEW/125,67/forecast/hourly
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/25/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/25/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4685512/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/16731/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3043116/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3126486/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3895856/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4426385/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4428209/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429835/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4575665/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4685512/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4887558/stats
• https://www.49ers.com/news/49ers-announce-moves-for-initial-53-man-roster-x1231
• https://www.49ers.com/news/49ers-make-a-series-of-roster-moves-ahead-of-azvssf
• https://www.49ers.com/news/day-5-of-49ers-camp-2026-samuel-sr-returns-to-red-and-gold
• https://www.49ers.com/news/teammates-faithful-rally-behind-pearsall-in-his-recovery-off-the-field
• https://www.49ers.com/team/depth-chart
• https://www.seahawks.com/news/jadarian-price-out-after-aggravating-chest-injury-other-seahawks-injury-updates

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026010013/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026010020/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026010049/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026010057/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020014/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020018/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020024/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020028/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020038/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020051/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020053/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020066/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020067/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=700&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=700&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=800&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=800&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=900&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2
• https://frontend.d3.nhle.com/capitals/news/topic/dump-n-chase/excitable-boys
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://www.nhl.com/capitals/news/caps-clash-with-kraken-x2607
• https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-kraken-washington-capitals-game-preview-october-11-2026

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020003/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020004/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020010/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020015/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020017/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020033/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020036/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020039/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020048/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020061/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020067/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020071/boxscore
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=700&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=700&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=800&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=800&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=900&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/NJD_dark.svg
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/NJD_light.svg
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/VAN_dark.svg
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/VAN_light.svg
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://www.nhl.com/news/vancouver-canucks-new-york-rangers-game-preview-october-11-2026

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898391
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898392
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/19/roster?season=2027
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/basketball/nba/standings?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3133635/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3908809/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3934723/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3992/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4065654/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066320/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066328/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066757/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277847/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4278075/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4278572/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4348700/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4397204/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4431734/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432158/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432165/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432573/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4565201/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4566434/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4576085/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4576087/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4593034/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4683747/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4701233/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4701845/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4702382/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4712849/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4898369/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5023693/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5106268/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5177362/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5214637/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5239561/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/6478/stats?seasontype=2
• https://www.nba.com/player/1631215/khalifa-diop/profile

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020001/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020006/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020009/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020018/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020025/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020040/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020045/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020059/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020061/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020070/boxscore
• https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=700&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=700&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=800&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=800&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=900&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=900&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2
• https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/BOS_dark.svg
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/BOS_light.svg
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/CAR_dark.svg
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/CAR_light.svg
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/CHI_dark.svg
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/CHI_light.svg
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/PHI_dark.svg
• https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/PHI_light.svg
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/news/preview-october-11-at-philadelphia
• https://www.nhl.com/news/carolina-hurricanes-philadelphia-flyers-game-preview-october-3-2026

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901820
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914102
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/15/roster?season=2027
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/30/roster?season=2027
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/basketball/nba/standings?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/2578239/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/2583632/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/2991043/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3032979/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3133628/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3134907/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3135045/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066218/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277843/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277922/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4395651/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4395725/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4396971/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4397114/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4397140/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4397233/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4397475/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432848/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433249/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433287/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433569/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4576060/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4591725/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4602025/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4697268/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4701225/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4997526/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5061575/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5105623/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5211176/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5214640/stats?seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5239590/stats?seasontype=2
• https://www.nba.com/game/bkn-vs-cha-0012600025/box-score
• https://www.nba.com/news/coby-white-preseason-calf-strain
• https://www.nba.com/team/1610612749/bucks/roster

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://fantasy.mlssoccer.com/news/transfer-superlatives-who-stands-out-from-the-summer-window
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761833
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761841
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/187/schedule?season=2026
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/teams/21812/schedule?season=2026
• https://www.mlssoccer.com/league-reports/all-transfers/
• https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/mls-player-status-report-matchday-29-saturday-october-10-sunday-october-11
• https://www.mlssoccer.com/players/tahir-reid-brown/
• https://www.stlcitysc.com/news/match-preview-st-louis-city-sc-to-battle-la-galaxy-on-sunday-night-soccer-presented-by-continental-tire
• https://www.stlcitysc.com/news/match-report-st-louis-city2-draws-portland-timbers2-1-1-on-monday-afternoon-at-providence-park

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / lineup and probability gates",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / lineup and probability gates"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / lineup and probability gates",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / lineup and probability gates"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / lineup and probability gates",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / lineup and probability gates"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / lineup and probability gates",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / lineup and probability gates"
    ]
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000
• https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000
• https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2026&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000
• https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/119/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R
• https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/158/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R
• https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-brewers-nl-championship-series-game-1-starting-lineups-and-pitching-matchup

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872993",
    "matchup": "Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer0.3549 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.3549 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.6451",
      "3 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -120.0,
    "pick": "Atlanta Falcons -3",
    "line": -3.0,
    "selection_side": "home",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872993",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.453328+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.695686+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.444524367718103,
      24.799408351348273
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.444524367718103,
      24.799408351348273
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 0.35488398363017026,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.35488398363017026,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -2.6451160163698297,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.444524367718103,
          24.799408351348273
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.35488398363017026,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.444524367718103,
          24.799408351348273
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.6451160163698297
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.35488398363017026,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.6451160163698297
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.3548839836301703,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.35488398363017026
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Baltimore edge and corner contingency",
        "detail": "First-listed edge TreyHendricksonOUT and firstRCB MarlonHumphreyQ with reserveTampaIR. These pressure/coverage paths are outside the Huntley/Flowers human assumptions.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Atlanta tackle and defensive-unit contingency",
        "detail": "Starting LT JakeMatthewsQ; first-listed ZaDariusSmithOUT with first-line Deablo/EbukamQ. No supported active/inactive protection/defense bound in the frozen skill-player scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Baltimore center transition",
        "detail": "Acquired CamJurgensOUT, current interior protection rotation uncertain; no automatic trade-3. Actual Jurgens direct snaps remain zero in this event.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 3,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.35488398363017026,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -0.6058823529411761,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -2.1746282205195726,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872993",
    "matchup": "Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.7439 below required5",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-0.2561 below required5",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-3.2561",
      "Total stress retains-3.2561, below1point",
      "3 unresolved high-severity risks",
      "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "price": -115.0,
    "pick": "Over 43.5",
    "line": 43.5,
    "selection_side": "over",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872993",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.453328+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.695686+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.444524367718103,
      24.799408351348273
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.444524367718103,
      24.799408351348273
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.743932719066379,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.2560672809336211,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -3.256067280933621,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          18.444524367718103,
          24.799408351348273
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.2560672809336211,
        "adverse_score": [
          15.444524367718103,
          24.799408351348273
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.256067280933621
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.743932719066379,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.2560672809336211
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.2560672809336211,
          "adverse_score": [
            15.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.256067280933621
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Baltimore edge and corner contingency",
        "detail": "First-listed edge TreyHendricksonOUT and firstRCB MarlonHumphreyQ with reserveTampaIR. These pressure/coverage paths are outside the Huntley/Flowers human assumptions.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Atlanta tackle and defensive-unit contingency",
        "detail": "Starting LT JakeMatthewsQ; first-listed ZaDariusSmithOUT with first-line Deablo/EbukamQ. No supported active/inactive protection/defense bound in the frozen skill-player scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Baltimore center transition",
        "detail": "Acquired CamJurgensOUT, current interior protection rotation uncertain; no automatic trade-3. Actual Jurgens direct snaps remain zero in this event.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 3,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.743932719066379,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 1.3117647058823536,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 2.11436071514904,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872993",
    "matchup": "Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer0.3549 below required3",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.3549 below required3",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.6451",
      "3 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -120.0,
    "pick": "Atlanta Falcons -3",
    "line": -3.0,
    "selection_side": "home",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872993",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.453328+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.695686+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.444524367718103,
      24.799408351348273
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.444524367718103,
      24.799408351348273
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 0.35488398363017026,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.35488398363017026,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -2.6451160163698297,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          21.444524367718103,
          24.799408351348273
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.35488398363017026,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.444524367718103,
          24.799408351348273
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -2.6451160163698297
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.35488398363017026,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -2.6451160163698297
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.3548839836301703,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.35488398363017026
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Baltimore edge and corner contingency",
        "detail": "First-listed edge TreyHendricksonOUT and firstRCB MarlonHumphreyQ with reserveTampaIR. These pressure/coverage paths are outside the Huntley/Flowers human assumptions.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Atlanta tackle and defensive-unit contingency",
        "detail": "Starting LT JakeMatthewsQ; first-listed ZaDariusSmithOUT with first-line Deablo/EbukamQ. No supported active/inactive protection/defense bound in the frozen skill-player scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Baltimore center transition",
        "detail": "Acquired CamJurgensOUT, current interior protection rotation uncertain; no automatic trade-3. Actual Jurgens direct snaps remain zero in this event.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 3,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.35488398363017026,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": -0.6058823529411761,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": -2.1746282205195726,
        "same_direction": false,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872993",
    "matchup": "Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer2.7439 below required4",
      "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-0.2561 below required4",
      "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-3.2561",
      "Total stress retains-3.2561, below1point",
      "3 unresolved high-severity risks"
    ],
    "price": -115.0,
    "pick": "Over 43.5",
    "line": 43.5,
    "selection_side": "over",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872993",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.453328+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.695686+00:00",
    "base_score": [
      24.444524367718103,
      24.799408351348273
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      21.444524367718103,
      24.799408351348273
    ],
    "canonical_buffer": 2.743932719066379,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.2560672809336211,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -3.256067280933621,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          18.444524367718103,
          24.799408351348273
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.2560672809336211,
        "adverse_score": [
          15.444524367718103,
          24.799408351348273
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.256067280933621
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            21.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.743932719066379,
          "adverse_score": [
            18.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.2560672809336211
        },
        {
          "score": [
            18.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.2560672809336211,
          "adverse_score": [
            15.444524367718103,
            24.799408351348273
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.256067280933621
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Baltimore edge and corner contingency",
        "detail": "First-listed edge TreyHendricksonOUT and firstRCB MarlonHumphreyQ with reserveTampaIR. These pressure/coverage paths are outside the Huntley/Flowers human assumptions.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Atlanta tackle and defensive-unit contingency",
        "detail": "Starting LT JakeMatthewsQ; first-listed ZaDariusSmithOUT with first-line Deablo/EbukamQ. No supported active/inactive protection/defense bound in the frozen skill-player scenarios.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Baltimore center transition",
        "detail": "Acquired CamJurgensOUT, current interior protection rotation uncertain; no automatic trade-3. Actual Jurgens direct snaps remain zero in this event.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient."
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches",
        "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement"
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 3,
    "unresolved_medium": 1,
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor",
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.743932719066379,
    "other_engine_context": {
      "Classic": {
        "signed_difference": 1.3117647058823536,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      },
      "Primary": {
        "signed_difference": 2.11436071514904,
        "same_direction": true,
        "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine"
      }
    },
    "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions."
  }
}

Classic

Conditional joint 21.0 / 23.5

• Lamar Jackson: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.0 / 23.5; other team production 21.0 / 23.5
• Zay Flowers: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.0 / 23.5; other team production 21.0 / 23.5

Primary

Conditional joint 22.5 / 23.0

• Lamar Jackson: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 22.5 / 23.0; other team production 22.5 / 23.0
• Zay Flowers: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 22.5 / 23.0; other team production 22.5 / 23.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 21.5 / 25.0

• Lamar Jackson: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 25.0; other team production 21.5 / 25.0
• Zay Flowers: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 25.0; other team production 21.5 / 25.0

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 21.5 / 25.0

• Lamar Jackson: confirmed OUT/IR; isolated 21.5 / 25.0; other team production 21.5 / 25.0
• Zay Flowers: conditional if OUT or materially limited; isolated 21.5 / 25.0; other team production 21.5 / 25.0

• https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games
• https://amp.nfl.com/news/ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-ankle-out-falcons-tyler-huntley-start
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz
• https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2026.csv.gz
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=200
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/1/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/1/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/depthcharts
• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2576581/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3916387/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4035671/stats
• https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429615/stats
• https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/declan-doyle-confident-tyler-huntley-derrick-henry-calls-bijan-robinson-best-running-back-week-5-ravens-falcons

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

• https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000
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