{ "created_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:32.203767+00:00", "freeze_sha256": "8e440ce49c0f2c6f82db296dcc17db0a0fdba0b9bbf7176416df5bf4834640dd", "freeze_unchanged": true, "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-11T11:35:23.093521+00:00", "price_capture_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.700278+00:00", "independent_reviewer": "Football desk; no new prices requested", "decisions_detail": [ { "event_id": "401872981", "matchup": "Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.0767 below required3", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.9233", "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -120.0, "pick": "Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5", "line": -7.5, "selection_side": "home", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872981", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.025946+00:00", "base_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "adjusted_score": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "canonical_buffer": 5.076729588103671, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.076729588103671, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -0.9232704118963291, "worst_case": { "score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.076729588103671, "adverse_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9232704118963291 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.076729588103671, "adverse_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9232704118963291 }, { "score": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.076729588103671, "adverse_score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.076729588103671 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Philadelphia protection reconstruction", "detail": "Starting center trade plus LaneJohnson retirement and KendallOUT; replacement center/tackle communication and turnover exposure remain outside the offensive skill-position human branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Safety continuity", "detail": "PHI MarcusEpps is listed first atSS and OUT; JAX EricMurray first atSS and doubtful. Coverage/finishing uncertainty separate from blocking.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.076729588103671, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 3.4323529411764753, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -0.04106876084279776, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872981", "matchup": "Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.2892 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.7108", "Total stress retains-0.7108, below1point", "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Under 41.5", "line": 41.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872981", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.025946+00:00", "base_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "adjusted_score": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "canonical_buffer": 5.289212312305139, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.289212312305139, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -0.7107876876948609, "worst_case": { "score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.289212312305139, "adverse_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.7107876876948609 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.289212312305139, "adverse_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.7107876876948609 }, { "score": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.289212312305139, "adverse_score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.289212312305139 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Philadelphia protection reconstruction", "detail": "Starting center trade plus LaneJohnson retirement and KendallOUT; replacement center/tackle communication and turnover exposure remain outside the offensive skill-position human branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Safety continuity", "detail": "PHI MarcusEpps is listed first atSS and OUT; JAX EricMurray first atSS and doubtful. Coverage/finishing uncertainty separate from blocking.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.289212312305143, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -4.53235294117647, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -4.8508479631656485, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872981", "matchup": "Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.0767 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.9233", "2 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -120.0, "pick": "Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5", "line": -7.5, "selection_side": "home", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872981", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.025946+00:00", "base_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "adjusted_score": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "canonical_buffer": 5.076729588103671, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.076729588103671, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -0.9232704118963291, "worst_case": { "score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.076729588103671, "adverse_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9232704118963291 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.076729588103671, "adverse_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9232704118963291 }, { "score": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.076729588103671, "adverse_score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.076729588103671 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Philadelphia protection reconstruction", "detail": "Starting center trade plus LaneJohnson retirement and KendallOUT; replacement center/tackle communication and turnover exposure remain outside the offensive skill-position human branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Safety continuity", "detail": "PHI MarcusEpps is listed first atSS and OUT; JAX EricMurray first atSS and doubtful. Coverage/finishing uncertainty separate from blocking.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.076729588103671, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 3.4323529411764753, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -0.04106876084279776, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872981", "matchup": "Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.2892 below required5", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.7108", "Total stress retains-0.7108, below1point", "2 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Under 41.5", "line": 41.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872981", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.025946+00:00", "base_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "adjusted_score": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "canonical_buffer": 5.289212312305139, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.289212312305139, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -0.7107876876948609, "worst_case": { "score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.289212312305139, "adverse_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.7107876876948609 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.289212312305139, "adverse_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.7107876876948609 }, { "score": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.289212312305139, "adverse_score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.289212312305139 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Philadelphia protection reconstruction", "detail": "Starting center trade plus LaneJohnson retirement and KendallOUT; replacement center/tackle communication and turnover exposure remain outside the offensive skill-position human branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Safety continuity", "detail": "PHI MarcusEpps is listed first atSS and OUT; JAX EricMurray first atSS and doubtful. Coverage/finishing uncertainty separate from blocking.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.289212312305143, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -4.53235294117647, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -4.8508479631656485, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872982", "matchup": "Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.8778 below required3", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-6.1222 below required3", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-9.1222", "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "3 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Cincinnati Bengals -7", "line": -7.0, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872982", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.8778118055098965, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": -6.1221881944901035, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -9.122188194490104, "worst_case": { "score": [ 18.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -6.1221881944901035, "adverse_score": [ 18.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -9.122188194490104 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.12218819449010354, "adverse_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.1221881944901035 }, { "score": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8778118055098965, "adverse_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.12218819449010354 }, { "score": [ 21.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1221881944901035, "adverse_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.1221881944901035 }, { "score": [ 21.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.12218819449010354, "adverse_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.1221881944901035 }, { "score": [ 18.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -6.1221881944901035, "adverse_score": [ 18.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -9.122188194490104 }, { "score": [ 18.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1221881944901035, "adverse_score": [ 18.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.1221881944901035 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Cincinnati safety status", "detail": "Starting FS BryanCookQ; KyleDuggerOUT is second in currentdepth. Current passing and tackle branches do not quantify safety rotation.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Miami defensive interior", "detail": "Starting LDT JordanPhillipsQ in currentdepth and KennethGrantQ official report; rotational front uncertainty, without two confirmed missing starters.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Miami heat and later storm chance", "detail": "NWS91F early and15\u201316percent afternoon thunderstorm chance; exertion/rotation/interruption risk. No weather coefficient invented.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 3, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.8778118055098965, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -0.8323529411764703, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -0.1548565554866208, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872982", "matchup": "Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer1.8327 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-1.1673", "Total stress retains-1.1673, below1point", "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "3 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -105.0, "pick": "Under 43.5", "line": 43.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872982", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "canonical_buffer": 4.83269038523126, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.8326903852312597, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -1.1673096147687403, "worst_case": { "score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.8326903852312597, "adverse_score": [ 27.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.1673096147687403 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.8326903852312597, "adverse_score": [ 27.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.1673096147687403 }, { "score": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.83269038523126, "adverse_score": [ 27.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.8326903852312597 }, { "score": [ 21.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.83269038523126, "adverse_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.8326903852312597 }, { "score": [ 21.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.83269038523126, "adverse_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.83269038523126 }, { "score": [ 18.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.83269038523126, "adverse_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.83269038523126 }, { "score": [ 18.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.83269038523126, "adverse_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.83269038523126 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Cincinnati safety status", "detail": "Starting FS BryanCookQ; KyleDuggerOUT is second in currentdepth. Current passing and tackle branches do not quantify safety rotation.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Miami defensive interior", "detail": "Starting LDT JordanPhillipsQ in currentdepth and KennethGrantQ official report; rotational front uncertainty, without two confirmed missing starters.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Miami heat and later storm chance", "detail": "NWS91F early and15\u201316percent afternoon thunderstorm chance; exertion/rotation/interruption risk. No weather coefficient invented.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 3, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.832690385231263, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -3.455882352941174, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -1.2698469984006238, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872982", "matchup": "Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.8778 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-6.1222 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-9.1222", "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "3 unresolved medium risks", "Conservative ON excludes3 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Cincinnati Bengals -7", "line": -7.0, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872982", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.8778118055098965, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": -6.1221881944901035, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -9.122188194490104, "worst_case": { "score": [ 18.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -6.1221881944901035, "adverse_score": [ 18.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -9.122188194490104 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.12218819449010354, "adverse_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.1221881944901035 }, { "score": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.8778118055098965, "adverse_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.12218819449010354 }, { "score": [ 21.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1221881944901035, "adverse_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.1221881944901035 }, { "score": [ 21.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.12218819449010354, "adverse_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.1221881944901035 }, { "score": [ 18.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -6.1221881944901035, "adverse_score": [ 18.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -9.122188194490104 }, { "score": [ 18.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.1221881944901035, "adverse_score": [ 18.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.1221881944901035 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Cincinnati safety status", "detail": "Starting FS BryanCookQ; KyleDuggerOUT is second in currentdepth. Current passing and tackle branches do not quantify safety rotation.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Miami defensive interior", "detail": "Starting LDT JordanPhillipsQ in currentdepth and KennethGrantQ official report; rotational front uncertainty, without two confirmed missing starters.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Miami heat and later storm chance", "detail": "NWS91F early and15\u201316percent afternoon thunderstorm chance; exertion/rotation/interruption risk. No weather coefficient invented.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 3, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.8778118055098965, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -0.8323529411764703, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -0.1548565554866208, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872982", "matchup": "Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer4.8327 below required5", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer1.8327 below required5", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-1.1673", "Total stress retains-1.1673, below1point", "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "3 unresolved medium risks", "Conservative ON excludes3 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -105.0, "pick": "Under 43.5", "line": 43.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872982", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.677733+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "canonical_buffer": 4.83269038523126, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.8326903852312597, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -1.1673096147687403, "worst_case": { "score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.8326903852312597, "adverse_score": [ 27.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.1673096147687403 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.8326903852312597, "adverse_score": [ 27.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.1673096147687403 }, { "score": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.83269038523126, "adverse_score": [ 27.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.8326903852312597 }, { "score": [ 21.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.83269038523126, "adverse_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.8326903852312597 }, { "score": [ 21.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.83269038523126, "adverse_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.83269038523126 }, { "score": [ 18.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.83269038523126, "adverse_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.83269038523126 }, { "score": [ 18.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.83269038523126, "adverse_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.83269038523126 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Cincinnati safety status", "detail": "Starting FS BryanCookQ; KyleDuggerOUT is second in currentdepth. Current passing and tackle branches do not quantify safety rotation.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Miami defensive interior", "detail": "Starting LDT JordanPhillipsQ in currentdepth and KennethGrantQ official report; rotational front uncertainty, without two confirmed missing starters.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Miami heat and later storm chance", "detail": "NWS91F early and15\u201316percent afternoon thunderstorm chance; exertion/rotation/interruption risk. No weather coefficient invented.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 3, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.832690385231263, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -3.455882352941174, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -1.2698469984006238, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872983", "matchup": "Cleveland Browns at New York Jets", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "3 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -110.0, "pick": "Cleveland Browns +2.5", "line": 2.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872983", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.021886+00:00", "base_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "canonical_buffer": 7.831978517917701, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.831978517917701, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.831978517917701, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.831978517917701, "adverse_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.831978517917701 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.831978517917701, "adverse_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.831978517917701 }, { "score": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.831978517917701, "adverse_score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.831978517917701 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Cleveland defensive tackle depth", "detail": "First-listed LDT MasonGrahamOUT plus rotational MikeHall and KaliaDavisOUT. Only one first-listed starter is missing, so classify a thinned run-defense unit medium rather than automatically equating three names to three starters.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Jets protection and pressure rotation", "detail": "Starting LG DylanParhamOUT; first RDE EnagbareQ and next McDonaldQ. Interior blocking/pressure continuity is not included in BreeceHall/Mitchell human deductions.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Persistent MetLife rain", "detail": "Official NWS kickoff rain probability92percent; ball handling and pace remain separate medium uncertainty.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 3, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.831978517917701, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -8.517647058823531, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -7.893336882489727, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872983", "matchup": "Cleveland Browns at New York Jets", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer1.5429 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-1.4571 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-4.4571", "Total stress retains-4.4571, below1point", "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "3 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -108.0, "pick": "Under 39.5", "line": 39.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872983", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.021886+00:00", "base_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "canonical_buffer": 1.5429160179177046, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.4570839820822954, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -4.457083982082295, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4570839820822954, "adverse_score": [ 24.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.457083982082295 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4570839820822954, "adverse_score": [ 24.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.457083982082295 }, { "score": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.5429160179177046, "adverse_score": [ 24.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.4570839820822954 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Cleveland defensive tackle depth", "detail": "First-listed LDT MasonGrahamOUT plus rotational MikeHall and KaliaDavisOUT. Only one first-listed starter is missing, so classify a thinned run-defense unit medium rather than automatically equating three names to three starters.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Jets protection and pressure rotation", "detail": "Starting LG DylanParhamOUT; first RDE EnagbareQ and next McDonaldQ. Interior blocking/pressure continuity is not included in BreeceHall/Mitchell human deductions.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Persistent MetLife rain", "detail": "Official NWS kickoff rain probability92percent; ball handling and pace remain separate medium uncertainty.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 3, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.542916017917701, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -2.9176470588235333, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -3.815665580107371, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872983", "matchup": "Cleveland Browns at New York Jets", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "3 unresolved medium risks", "Conservative ON excludes3 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -110.0, "pick": "Cleveland Browns +2.5", "line": 2.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872983", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.021886+00:00", "base_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "canonical_buffer": 7.831978517917701, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.831978517917701, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.831978517917701, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.831978517917701, "adverse_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.831978517917701 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.831978517917701, "adverse_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.831978517917701 }, { "score": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.831978517917701, "adverse_score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.831978517917701 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Cleveland defensive tackle depth", "detail": "First-listed LDT MasonGrahamOUT plus rotational MikeHall and KaliaDavisOUT. Only one first-listed starter is missing, so classify a thinned run-defense unit medium rather than automatically equating three names to three starters.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Jets protection and pressure rotation", "detail": "Starting LG DylanParhamOUT; first RDE EnagbareQ and next McDonaldQ. Interior blocking/pressure continuity is not included in BreeceHall/Mitchell human deductions.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Persistent MetLife rain", "detail": "Official NWS kickoff rain probability92percent; ball handling and pace remain separate medium uncertainty.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 3, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.831978517917701, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -8.517647058823531, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -7.893336882489727, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872983", "matchup": "Cleveland Browns at New York Jets", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer1.5429 below required5", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-1.4571 below required5", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-4.4571", "Total stress retains-4.4571, below1point", "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "3 unresolved medium risks", "Conservative ON excludes3 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -108.0, "pick": "Under 39.5", "line": 39.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872983", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.021886+00:00", "base_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "canonical_buffer": 1.5429160179177046, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.4570839820822954, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -4.457083982082295, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4570839820822954, "adverse_score": [ 24.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.457083982082295 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.4570839820822954, "adverse_score": [ 24.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.457083982082295 }, { "score": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.5429160179177046, "adverse_score": [ 24.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.4570839820822954 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Cleveland defensive tackle depth", "detail": "First-listed LDT MasonGrahamOUT plus rotational MikeHall and KaliaDavisOUT. Only one first-listed starter is missing, so classify a thinned run-defense unit medium rather than automatically equating three names to three starters.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Jets protection and pressure rotation", "detail": "Starting LG DylanParhamOUT; first RDE EnagbareQ and next McDonaldQ. Interior blocking/pressure continuity is not included in BreeceHall/Mitchell human deductions.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Persistent MetLife rain", "detail": "Official NWS kickoff rain probability92percent; ball handling and pace remain separate medium uncertainty.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 3, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.542916017917701, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -2.9176470588235333, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -3.815665580107371, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872984", "matchup": "Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "1 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Tennessee Titans +7", "line": 7.0, "selection_side": "home", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872984", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.947086+00:00", "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "canonical_buffer": 7.706342823587768, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.706342823587768, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.706342823587768, "worst_case": { "score": [ 19.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.706342823587768, "adverse_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.706342823587768 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.706342823587768, "adverse_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.706342823587768 }, { "score": [ 19.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.706342823587768, "adverse_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.706342823587768 }, { "score": [ 16.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.706342823587768, "adverse_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.706342823587768 }, { "score": [ 16.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.706342823587768, "adverse_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.706342823587768 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Houston tackle availability", "detail": "BradenSmithOUT and starting LT AireontaeErseryQ, reserve tackle BlakeFisherQ plus EdIngramQ. Both-edge protection contingency is not represented by Dell/Higgins receiving human scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Tennessee safety absence", "detail": "Starting SS AmaniHookerOUT, reserve CB JoshuaWilliamsOUT; deep coverage continuity uncertainty remains separate from Tate availability.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.706342823587768, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 6.002941176470589, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 3.4699034052382345, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872984", "matchup": "Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.7816 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-3.2184 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-6.2184", "Total stress retains-6.2184, below1point", "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -115.0, "pick": "Over 37.5", "line": 37.5, "selection_side": "over", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872984", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.947086+00:00", "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.781644819386088, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": -3.218355180613912, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -6.218355180613912, "worst_case": { "score": [ 16.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.218355180613912, "adverse_score": [ 13.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.218355180613912 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.781644819386088, "adverse_score": [ 16.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.21835518061391213 }, { "score": [ 19.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.21835518061391213, "adverse_score": [ 16.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.218355180613912 }, { "score": [ 16.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.21835518061391213, "adverse_score": [ 13.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.218355180613912 }, { "score": [ 16.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.218355180613912, "adverse_score": [ 13.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.218355180613912 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Houston tackle availability", "detail": "BradenSmithOUT and starting LT AireontaeErseryQ, reserve tackle BlakeFisherQ plus EdIngramQ. Both-edge protection contingency is not represented by Dell/Higgins receiving human scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Tennessee safety absence", "detail": "Starting SS AmaniHookerOUT, reserve CB JoshuaWilliamsOUT; deep coverage continuity uncertainty remains separate from Tate availability.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.781644819386088, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 1.8323529411764667, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 0.9074330209044916, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872984", "matchup": "Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Tennessee Titans +7", "line": 7.0, "selection_side": "home", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872984", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.947086+00:00", "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "canonical_buffer": 7.706342823587768, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.706342823587768, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.706342823587768, "worst_case": { "score": [ 19.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.706342823587768, "adverse_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.706342823587768 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.706342823587768, "adverse_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.706342823587768 }, { "score": [ 19.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.706342823587768, "adverse_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.706342823587768 }, { "score": [ 16.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.706342823587768, "adverse_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.706342823587768 }, { "score": [ 16.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.706342823587768, "adverse_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.706342823587768 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Houston tackle availability", "detail": "BradenSmithOUT and starting LT AireontaeErseryQ, reserve tackle BlakeFisherQ plus EdIngramQ. Both-edge protection contingency is not represented by Dell/Higgins receiving human scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Tennessee safety absence", "detail": "Starting SS AmaniHookerOUT, reserve CB JoshuaWilliamsOUT; deep coverage continuity uncertainty remains separate from Tate availability.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.706342823587768, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 6.002941176470589, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 3.4699034052382345, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872984", "matchup": "Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.7816 below required5", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-3.2184 below required5", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-6.2184", "Total stress retains-6.2184, below1point", "2 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -115.0, "pick": "Over 37.5", "line": 37.5, "selection_side": "over", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872984", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.678779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.947086+00:00", "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.781644819386088, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": -3.218355180613912, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -6.218355180613912, "worst_case": { "score": [ 16.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.218355180613912, "adverse_score": [ 13.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.218355180613912 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.781644819386088, "adverse_score": [ 16.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.21835518061391213 }, { "score": [ 19.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.21835518061391213, "adverse_score": [ 16.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.218355180613912 }, { "score": [ 16.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.21835518061391213, "adverse_score": [ 13.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.218355180613912 }, { "score": [ 16.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.218355180613912, "adverse_score": [ 13.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.218355180613912 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Houston tackle availability", "detail": "BradenSmithOUT and starting LT AireontaeErseryQ, reserve tackle BlakeFisherQ plus EdIngramQ. Both-edge protection contingency is not represented by Dell/Higgins receiving human scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Tennessee safety absence", "detail": "Starting SS AmaniHookerOUT, reserve CB JoshuaWilliamsOUT; deep coverage continuity uncertainty remains separate from Tate availability.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.781644819386088, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 1.8323529411764667, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 0.9074330209044916, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872985", "matchup": "Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.0690 below required3", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-0.9310 below required3", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-3.9310", "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": 100.0, "pick": "Indianapolis Colts +2.5", "line": 2.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872985", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.679779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031877+00:00", "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.0689812779731476, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.9310187220268524, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -3.9310187220268524, "worst_case": { "score": [ 17.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9310187220268524, "adverse_score": [ 17.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.9310187220268524 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0689812779731476, "adverse_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9310187220268524 }, { "score": [ 20.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.068981277973148, "adverse_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.0689812779731476 }, { "score": [ 17.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9310187220268524, "adverse_score": [ 17.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.9310187220268524 }, { "score": [ 17.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0689812779731476, "adverse_score": [ 17.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9310187220268524 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Pittsburgh coverage contingency", "detail": "JamelDean first outsideCB OUT and first nickel JalenRamseyQ, with ElliottIR. Porter trade recentbaseline already excluded his earlyPIT snaps; current coverage risk remains independently unresolved.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Indianapolis defensive roles", "detail": "Starting LB JaylonCarliesOUT and outsideCB CharvariusWardQ, with reserve corner depthIR. Coverage/run-fit uncertainty outside receiving replacement branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.0689812779731476, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -2.176470588235297, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -2.159710895414598, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872985", "matchup": "Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer1.6195 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer1.6195 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-1.3805", "Total stress retains-1.3805, below1point", "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Under 43.5", "line": 43.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872985", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.679779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031877+00:00", "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "canonical_buffer": 1.6195394088341857, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.6195394088341857, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -1.3804605911658143, "worst_case": { "score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6195394088341857, "adverse_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3804605911658143 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6195394088341857, "adverse_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3804605911658143 }, { "score": [ 20.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.619539408834186, "adverse_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.6195394088341857 }, { "score": [ 17.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.619539408834186, "adverse_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.6195394088341857 }, { "score": [ 17.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.619539408834186, "adverse_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.619539408834186 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Pittsburgh coverage contingency", "detail": "JamelDean first outsideCB OUT and first nickel JalenRamseyQ, with ElliottIR. Porter trade recentbaseline already excluded his earlyPIT snaps; current coverage risk remains independently unresolved.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Indianapolis defensive roles", "detail": "Starting LB JaylonCarliesOUT and outsideCB CharvariusWardQ, with reserve corner depthIR. Coverage/run-fit uncertainty outside receiving replacement branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.6195394088341892, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -1.6705882352941188, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -0.7647649102767744, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872985", "matchup": "Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.0690 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-0.9310 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-3.9310", "2 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": 100.0, "pick": "Indianapolis Colts +2.5", "line": 2.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872985", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.679779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031877+00:00", "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.0689812779731476, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.9310187220268524, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -3.9310187220268524, "worst_case": { "score": [ 17.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9310187220268524, "adverse_score": [ 17.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.9310187220268524 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0689812779731476, "adverse_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9310187220268524 }, { "score": [ 20.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.068981277973148, "adverse_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.0689812779731476 }, { "score": [ 17.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9310187220268524, "adverse_score": [ 17.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.9310187220268524 }, { "score": [ 17.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0689812779731476, "adverse_score": [ 17.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9310187220268524 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Pittsburgh coverage contingency", "detail": "JamelDean first outsideCB OUT and first nickel JalenRamseyQ, with ElliottIR. Porter trade recentbaseline already excluded his earlyPIT snaps; current coverage risk remains independently unresolved.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Indianapolis defensive roles", "detail": "Starting LB JaylonCarliesOUT and outsideCB CharvariusWardQ, with reserve corner depthIR. Coverage/run-fit uncertainty outside receiving replacement branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.0689812779731476, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -2.176470588235297, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -2.159710895414598, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872985", "matchup": "Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer1.6195 below required5", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer1.6195 below required5", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-1.3805", "Total stress retains-1.3805, below1point", "2 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Under 43.5", "line": 43.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872985", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.679779+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031877+00:00", "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "canonical_buffer": 1.6195394088341857, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.6195394088341857, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -1.3804605911658143, "worst_case": { "score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6195394088341857, "adverse_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3804605911658143 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6195394088341857, "adverse_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3804605911658143 }, { "score": [ 20.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.619539408834186, "adverse_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.6195394088341857 }, { "score": [ 17.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.619539408834186, "adverse_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.6195394088341857 }, { "score": [ 17.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.619539408834186, "adverse_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.619539408834186 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Pittsburgh coverage contingency", "detail": "JamelDean first outsideCB OUT and first nickel JalenRamseyQ, with ElliottIR. Porter trade recentbaseline already excluded his earlyPIT snaps; current coverage risk remains independently unresolved.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Indianapolis defensive roles", "detail": "Starting LB JaylonCarliesOUT and outsideCB CharvariusWardQ, with reserve corner depthIR. Coverage/run-fit uncertainty outside receiving replacement branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.6195394088341892, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -1.6705882352941188, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -0.7647649102767744, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872986", "matchup": "Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer1.6451 below required3", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-1.3549 below required3", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-4.3549", "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -108.0, "pick": "Las Vegas Raiders +3.5", "line": 3.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872986", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.680286+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.045190+00:00", "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "canonical_buffer": 1.6450705996579416, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.3549294003420584, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -4.354929400342058, "worst_case": { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.3549294003420584, "adverse_score": [ 14.921197462451548, 22.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.354929400342058 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6450705996579416, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3549294003420584 }, { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.645070599657942, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.6450705996579416 }, { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 13.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.645070599657942, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.645070599657942 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.3549294003420584, "adverse_score": [ 14.921197462451548, 22.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.354929400342058 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 16.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6450705996579416, "adverse_score": [ 14.921197462451548, 19.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3549294003420584 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 13.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.645070599657942, "adverse_score": [ 14.921197462451548, 16.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.6450705996579416 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "New England cornerback unit depletion", "detail": "Both first-listed outside corners CarltonDavisIII and ChristianGonzalezOUT; ChanningCanada and KaronPruntyOUT, CharlesWoodsQ. This is a depleted starting and reserve coverage unit. Its opposing-passing upside is not bounded by offensive human availability deductions or the generic3point turnover test.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "New England protection and front continuity", "detail": "Starting RT MorganMosesQ and Barmore/Elliss/DreMontJonesQ. Moses protection and front-seven rotation add unresolved mechanisms. LV TreyZuhnOUT is reserve C/RT; do not falsely call a missing starting lineman.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.6450705996579416, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 2.220588235294116, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 5.055612302264137, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872986", "matchup": "Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "1 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -115.0, "pick": "Under 45.5", "line": 45.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872986", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.680286+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.045190+00:00", "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "canonical_buffer": 7.802675674754845, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 7.802675674754845, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 4.802675674754845, "worst_case": { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.802675674754845 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.802675674754845 }, { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.802675674754845 }, { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 13.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 13.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 10.802675674754845 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.802675674754845 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 16.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 10.802675674754845 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 13.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 16.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 13.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 13.802675674754845 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "New England cornerback unit depletion", "detail": "Both first-listed outside corners CarltonDavisIII and ChristianGonzalezOUT; ChanningCanada and KaronPruntyOUT, CharlesWoodsQ. This is a depleted starting and reserve coverage unit. Its opposing-passing upside is not bounded by offensive human availability deductions or the generic3point turnover test.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "New England protection and front continuity", "detail": "Starting RT MorganMosesQ and Barmore/Elliss/DreMontJonesQ. Moses protection and front-seven rotation add unresolved mechanisms. LV TreyZuhnOUT is reserve C/RT; do not falsely call a missing starting lineman.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.802675674754845, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -8.279411764705884, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -9.647662631875704, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872986", "matchup": "Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer1.6451 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-1.3549 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-4.3549", "2 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -108.0, "pick": "Las Vegas Raiders +3.5", "line": 3.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872986", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.680286+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.045190+00:00", "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "canonical_buffer": 1.6450705996579416, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.3549294003420584, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -4.354929400342058, "worst_case": { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.3549294003420584, "adverse_score": [ 14.921197462451548, 22.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.354929400342058 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6450705996579416, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3549294003420584 }, { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.645070599657942, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.6450705996579416 }, { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 13.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.645070599657942, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.645070599657942 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.3549294003420584, "adverse_score": [ 14.921197462451548, 22.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.354929400342058 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 16.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6450705996579416, "adverse_score": [ 14.921197462451548, 19.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3549294003420584 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 13.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.645070599657942, "adverse_score": [ 14.921197462451548, 16.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.6450705996579416 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "New England cornerback unit depletion", "detail": "Both first-listed outside corners CarltonDavisIII and ChristianGonzalezOUT; ChanningCanada and KaronPruntyOUT, CharlesWoodsQ. This is a depleted starting and reserve coverage unit. Its opposing-passing upside is not bounded by offensive human availability deductions or the generic3point turnover test.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "New England protection and front continuity", "detail": "Starting RT MorganMosesQ and Barmore/Elliss/DreMontJonesQ. Moses protection and front-seven rotation add unresolved mechanisms. LV TreyZuhnOUT is reserve C/RT; do not falsely call a missing starting lineman.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.6450705996579416, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 2.220588235294116, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 5.055612302264137, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872986", "matchup": "Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -115.0, "pick": "Under 45.5", "line": 45.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872986", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.680286+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.045190+00:00", "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "canonical_buffer": 7.802675674754845, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": 7.802675674754845, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 4.802675674754845, "worst_case": { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.802675674754845 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.802675674754845 }, { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.802675674754845 }, { "score": [ 17.92119746245155, 13.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 13.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 10.802675674754845 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 19.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.802675674754845 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 16.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 10.802675674754845 }, { "score": [ 14.921197462451548, 13.776126862793607 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 16.802675674754845, "adverse_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 13.776126862793607 ], "stressed_buffer": 13.802675674754845 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "New England cornerback unit depletion", "detail": "Both first-listed outside corners CarltonDavisIII and ChristianGonzalezOUT; ChanningCanada and KaronPruntyOUT, CharlesWoodsQ. This is a depleted starting and reserve coverage unit. Its opposing-passing upside is not bounded by offensive human availability deductions or the generic3point turnover test.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "New England protection and front continuity", "detail": "Starting RT MorganMosesQ and Barmore/Elliss/DreMontJonesQ. Moses protection and front-seven rotation add unresolved mechanisms. LV TreyZuhnOUT is reserve C/RT; do not falsely call a missing starting lineman.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 7.802675674754845, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -8.279411764705884, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -9.647662631875704, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872987", "matchup": "Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer1.9333 below required3", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-4.0667 below required3", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-7.0667", "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -118.0, "pick": "Minnesota Vikings -1.5", "line": -1.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872987", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.951479+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.166191+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "canonical_buffer": 1.933270424029292, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": -4.066729575970708, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -7.066729575970708, "worst_case": { "score": [ 15.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.066729575970708, "adverse_score": [ 15.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.066729575970708 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.933270424029292, "adverse_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.066729575970708 }, { "score": [ 21.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.933270424029292, "adverse_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.933270424029292 }, { "score": [ 18.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.066729575970708, "adverse_score": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.066729575970708 }, { "score": [ 18.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.933270424029292, "adverse_score": [ 18.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.066729575970708 }, { "score": [ 15.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.066729575970708, "adverse_score": [ 15.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.066729575970708 }, { "score": [ 15.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.066729575970708, "adverse_score": [ 15.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.066729575970708 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Minnesota starting-tackle combination", "detail": "Starting LT DarrisawOUT and starting RT ONeillQ; reserve interior JacksonIR and MichaelJurgensQ. Skill-position receiver scenarios do not bound the resulting pass protection contingency.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "New Orleans defensive spine", "detail": "Starting LB KadenEllissOUT and FS JulianBlackmonQ, with current front rotation flags. Distinct from modeled Etienne/Kamara backfield absences.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.933270424029292, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -1.4529411764705884, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -2.812924919878192, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872987", "matchup": "Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.3965 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.3965 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.6035", "Total stress retains-0.6035, below1point", "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Under 41.5", "line": 41.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872987", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.951479+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.166191+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.3965057181469405, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.3965057181469405, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -0.6034942818530595, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3965057181469405, "adverse_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.6034942818530595 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3965057181469405, "adverse_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.6034942818530595 }, { "score": [ 21.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.3965057181469405, "adverse_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.3965057181469405 }, { "score": [ 18.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.3965057181469405, "adverse_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.3965057181469405 }, { "score": [ 18.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.39650571814694, "adverse_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 5.3965057181469405 }, { "score": [ 15.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.39650571814694, "adverse_score": [ 18.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 5.3965057181469405 }, { "score": [ 15.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 11.396505718146944, "adverse_score": [ 18.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 8.396505718146944 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Minnesota starting-tackle combination", "detail": "Starting LT DarrisawOUT and starting RT ONeillQ; reserve interior JacksonIR and MichaelJurgensQ. Skill-position receiver scenarios do not bound the resulting pass protection contingency.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "New Orleans defensive spine", "detail": "Starting LB KadenEllissOUT and FS JulianBlackmonQ, with current front rotation flags. Distinct from modeled Etienne/Kamara backfield absences.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.396505718146944, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -4.89411764705882, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -7.12230593211364, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872987", "matchup": "Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer1.9333 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-4.0667 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-7.0667", "2 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -118.0, "pick": "Minnesota Vikings -1.5", "line": -1.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872987", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.951479+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.166191+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "canonical_buffer": 1.933270424029292, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": -4.066729575970708, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -7.066729575970708, "worst_case": { "score": [ 15.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.066729575970708, "adverse_score": [ 15.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.066729575970708 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.933270424029292, "adverse_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.066729575970708 }, { "score": [ 21.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.933270424029292, "adverse_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.933270424029292 }, { "score": [ 18.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.066729575970708, "adverse_score": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.066729575970708 }, { "score": [ 18.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.933270424029292, "adverse_score": [ 18.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.066729575970708 }, { "score": [ 15.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -4.066729575970708, "adverse_score": [ 15.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -7.066729575970708 }, { "score": [ 15.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.066729575970708, "adverse_score": [ 15.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -4.066729575970708 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Minnesota starting-tackle combination", "detail": "Starting LT DarrisawOUT and starting RT ONeillQ; reserve interior JacksonIR and MichaelJurgensQ. Skill-position receiver scenarios do not bound the resulting pass protection contingency.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "New Orleans defensive spine", "detail": "Starting LB KadenEllissOUT and FS JulianBlackmonQ, with current front rotation flags. Distinct from modeled Etienne/Kamara backfield absences.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 1.933270424029292, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -1.4529411764705884, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -2.812924919878192, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872987", "matchup": "Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.3965 below required5", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer2.3965 below required5", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-0.6035", "Total stress retains-0.6035, below1point", "2 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Under 41.5", "line": 41.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872987", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:16.951479+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.166191+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.3965057181469405, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": 2.3965057181469405, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -0.6034942818530595, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3965057181469405, "adverse_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.6034942818530595 }, "scenario_count": 6, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.3965057181469405, "adverse_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.6034942818530595 }, { "score": [ 21.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.3965057181469405, "adverse_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.3965057181469405 }, { "score": [ 18.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.3965057181469405, "adverse_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.3965057181469405 }, { "score": [ 18.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.39650571814694, "adverse_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 5.3965057181469405 }, { "score": [ 15.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.39650571814694, "adverse_score": [ 18.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 5.3965057181469405 }, { "score": [ 15.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 11.396505718146944, "adverse_score": [ 18.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "stressed_buffer": 8.396505718146944 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Minnesota starting-tackle combination", "detail": "Starting LT DarrisawOUT and starting RT ONeillQ; reserve interior JacksonIR and MichaelJurgensQ. Skill-position receiver scenarios do not bound the resulting pass protection contingency.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "New Orleans defensive spine", "detail": "Starting LB KadenEllissOUT and FS JulianBlackmonQ, with current front rotation flags. Distinct from modeled Etienne/Kamara backfield absences.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.396505718146944, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -4.89411764705882, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -7.12230593211364, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872988", "matchup": "New York Giants at Washington Commanders", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "decision": "Free Pick 2", "reasons": [ "All recorded numerical and risk gates passed; ranking quota is separate." ], "price": -108.0, "pick": "New York Giants +3.5", "line": 3.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872988", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031015+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.341632+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "canonical_buffer": 5.10006216554163, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": 5.10006216554163, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 2.1000621655416296, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.10006216554163, "adverse_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.1000621655416296 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.10006216554163, "adverse_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.1000621655416296 }, { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 16.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.10006216554163, "adverse_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": 5.10006216554163 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Washington safety depth", "detail": "First-listed SS NickCrossOUT; backupSS TylerOwens and backupFS PercyButlerOUT. One starter plus reserves creates coverage continuity risk, distinguished from NE/DEN losing both starting corners. TreyAmos officialQ versus depthIR retained as a reserve-corner conflict; never silently declare cleared.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Landover wet conditions", "detail": "Official NWS afternoon rain-showers-likely68\u201372percent with10\u201312mph winds; possession/handling uncertainty remains. NYG Golston/Pinnock are second-listed defensive roles; AndrewThomasFP/no designation, so no unsupported starting-tackle absence.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.10006216554163, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -4.502941176470586, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -1.4087058844911553, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872988", "matchup": "New York Giants at Washington Commanders", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer0.1215 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.1215 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.8785", "Total stress retains-2.8785, below1point", "1 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -105.0, "pick": "Under 41.5", "line": 41.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872988", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031015+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.341632+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "canonical_buffer": 0.12154105799999115, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.12154105799999115, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -2.878458942000009, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.12154105799999115, "adverse_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.878458942000009 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.12154105799999115, "adverse_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.878458942000009 }, { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 16.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.121541057999991, "adverse_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 16.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.12154105799999115 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Washington safety depth", "detail": "First-listed SS NickCrossOUT; backupSS TylerOwens and backupFS PercyButlerOUT. One starter plus reserves creates coverage continuity risk, distinguished from NE/DEN losing both starting corners. TreyAmos officialQ versus depthIR retained as a reserve-corner conflict; never silently declare cleared.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Landover wet conditions", "detail": "Official NWS afternoon rain-showers-likely68\u201372percent with10\u201312mph winds; possession/handling uncertainty remains. NYG Golston/Pinnock are second-listed defensive roles; AndrewThomasFP/no designation, so no unsupported starting-tackle absence.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.12154105799999115, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -0.23823529411764355, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 0.10087161291109226, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872988", "matchup": "New York Giants at Washington Commanders", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -108.0, "pick": "New York Giants +3.5", "line": 3.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872988", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031015+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.341632+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "canonical_buffer": 5.10006216554163, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 5.10006216554163, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 2.1000621655416296, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.10006216554163, "adverse_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.1000621655416296 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.10006216554163, "adverse_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.1000621655416296 }, { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 16.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.10006216554163, "adverse_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": 5.10006216554163 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Washington safety depth", "detail": "First-listed SS NickCrossOUT; backupSS TylerOwens and backupFS PercyButlerOUT. One starter plus reserves creates coverage continuity risk, distinguished from NE/DEN losing both starting corners. TreyAmos officialQ versus depthIR retained as a reserve-corner conflict; never silently declare cleared.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Landover wet conditions", "detail": "Official NWS afternoon rain-showers-likely68\u201372percent with10\u201312mph winds; possession/handling uncertainty remains. NYG Golston/Pinnock are second-listed defensive roles; AndrewThomasFP/no designation, so no unsupported starting-tackle absence.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 5.10006216554163, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -4.502941176470586, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -1.4087058844911553, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872988", "matchup": "New York Giants at Washington Commanders", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer0.1215 below required5", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.1215 below required5", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.8785", "Total stress retains-2.8785, below1point", "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -105.0, "pick": "Under 41.5", "line": 41.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872988", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.031015+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.341632+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "canonical_buffer": 0.12154105799999115, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.12154105799999115, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -2.878458942000009, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.12154105799999115, "adverse_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.878458942000009 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.12154105799999115, "adverse_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.878458942000009 }, { "score": [ 21.48926055377082, 16.88919838822919 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.121541057999991, "adverse_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 16.88919838822919 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.12154105799999115 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Washington safety depth", "detail": "First-listed SS NickCrossOUT; backupSS TylerOwens and backupFS PercyButlerOUT. One starter plus reserves creates coverage continuity risk, distinguished from NE/DEN losing both starting corners. TreyAmos officialQ versus depthIR retained as a reserve-corner conflict; never silently declare cleared.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Landover wet conditions", "detail": "Official NWS afternoon rain-showers-likely68\u201372percent with10\u201312mph winds; possession/handling uncertainty remains. NYG Golston/Pinnock are second-listed defensive roles; AndrewThomasFP/no designation, so no unsupported starting-tackle absence.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.12154105799999115, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -0.23823529411764355, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 0.10087161291109226, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872990", "matchup": "Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.1753 below required3", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.8247", "1 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Chicago Bears -1.5", "line": -1.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872990", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.283790+00:00", "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "canonical_buffer": 6.175257358995964, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.17525735899596384, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -2.824742641004036, "worst_case": { "score": [ 19.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.17525735899596384, "adverse_score": [ 19.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.824742641004036 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 22.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.175257358995964, "adverse_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.17525735899596384 }, { "score": [ 22.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.175257358995964, "adverse_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.175257358995964 }, { "score": [ 19.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.17525735899596384, "adverse_score": [ 19.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.824742641004036 }, { "score": [ 19.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.175257358995964, "adverse_score": [ 19.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.17525735899596384 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Green Bay interior protection", "detail": "Starting LG AaronBanks DOUBTFUL, reserve JacobMonk DOUBTFUL and reserve center JagerBurtonQ. This is a guard/interior reserve transition, not two missing starting tackles; no validated separate scoring effect.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Green Bay interior run defense", "detail": "Starting NT JavonHargraveQ with defensive reserve thinning. One starting interior defender, not two starting corners; handling retained as medium unless later evidence escalates. Chicago ShemarTurner team report OUT versus leagueQ is a reserve-role status correction, not a new covered offensive loss.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 6.175257358995964, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -3.827573529411765, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -0.6654814271139422, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872990", "matchup": "Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "decision": "Free Pick 1", "reasons": [ "All recorded numerical and risk gates passed; ranking quota is separate." ], "price": -118.0, "pick": "Under 47.5", "line": 47.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872990", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.283790+00:00", "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "canonical_buffer": 9.479871595995121, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.479871595995121, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 3.479871595995121, "worst_case": { "score": [ 22.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.479871595995121, "adverse_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.479871595995121 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 22.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.479871595995121, "adverse_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.479871595995121 }, { "score": [ 22.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.479871595995121, "adverse_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.479871595995121 }, { "score": [ 19.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.479871595995121, "adverse_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.479871595995121 }, { "score": [ 19.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.479871595995121, "adverse_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 9.479871595995121 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Green Bay interior protection", "detail": "Starting LG AaronBanks DOUBTFUL, reserve JacobMonk DOUBTFUL and reserve center JagerBurtonQ. This is a guard/interior reserve transition, not two missing starting tackles; no validated separate scoring effect.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Green Bay interior run defense", "detail": "Starting NT JavonHargraveQ with defensive reserve thinning. One starting interior defender, not two starting corners; handling retained as medium unless later evidence escalates. Chicago ShemarTurner team report OUT versus leagueQ is a reserve-role status correction, not a new covered offensive loss.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 9.479871595995121, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -11.062867647058823, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -11.33074107723256, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872990", "matchup": "Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.1753 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.8247", "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Chicago Bears -1.5", "line": -1.5, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872990", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.283790+00:00", "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "canonical_buffer": 6.175257358995964, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.17525735899596384, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -2.824742641004036, "worst_case": { "score": [ 19.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.17525735899596384, "adverse_score": [ 19.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.824742641004036 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 22.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.175257358995964, "adverse_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.17525735899596384 }, { "score": [ 22.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.175257358995964, "adverse_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.175257358995964 }, { "score": [ 19.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.17525735899596384, "adverse_score": [ 19.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.824742641004036 }, { "score": [ 19.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.175257358995964, "adverse_score": [ 19.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.17525735899596384 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Green Bay interior protection", "detail": "Starting LG AaronBanks DOUBTFUL, reserve JacobMonk DOUBTFUL and reserve center JagerBurtonQ. This is a guard/interior reserve transition, not two missing starting tackles; no validated separate scoring effect.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Green Bay interior run defense", "detail": "Starting NT JavonHargraveQ with defensive reserve thinning. One starting interior defender, not two starting corners; handling retained as medium unless later evidence escalates. Chicago ShemarTurner team report OUT versus leagueQ is a reserve-role status correction, not a new covered offensive loss.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 6.175257358995964, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -3.827573529411765, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -0.6654814271139422, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872990", "matchup": "Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -118.0, "pick": "Under 47.5", "line": 47.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872990", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.034382+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.283790+00:00", "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "canonical_buffer": 9.479871595995121, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.479871595995121, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 3.479871595995121, "worst_case": { "score": [ 22.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.479871595995121, "adverse_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.479871595995121 }, "scenario_count": 4, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 22.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.479871595995121, "adverse_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.479871595995121 }, { "score": [ 22.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.479871595995121, "adverse_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.479871595995121 }, { "score": [ 19.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.479871595995121, "adverse_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 6.479871595995121 }, { "score": [ 19.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.479871595995121, "adverse_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "stressed_buffer": 9.479871595995121 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Green Bay interior protection", "detail": "Starting LG AaronBanks DOUBTFUL, reserve JacobMonk DOUBTFUL and reserve center JagerBurtonQ. This is a guard/interior reserve transition, not two missing starting tackles; no validated separate scoring effect.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Green Bay interior run defense", "detail": "Starting NT JavonHargraveQ with defensive reserve thinning. One starting interior defender, not two starting corners; handling retained as medium unless later evidence escalates. Chicago ShemarTurner team report OUT versus leagueQ is a reserve-role status correction, not a new covered offensive loss.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 9.479871595995121, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -11.062867647058823, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -11.33074107723256, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872989", "matchup": "Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-2.3222 below required3", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-5.3222", "3 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Los Angeles Chargers +3.5", "line": 3.5, "selection_side": "home", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872989", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.261159+00:00", "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "canonical_buffer": 3.6777508724718118, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.3222491275281882, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -5.322249127528188, "worst_case": { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.3222491275281882, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.322249127528188 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6777508724718118, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.6777508724718118 }, { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 15.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.6777508724718118, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 15.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.3222491275281882 }, { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.3222491275281882, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.322249127528188 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver starting corners", "detail": "Both first-listed outsideCBs SurtainII and MossOUT. No quantified replacement coverage bound; consistent treatment with NewEngland.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Chargers protection and secondary", "detail": "Starting RT JoeAltOUT with multipleOLabsences and backupBransonTaylorQ; starting SS DerwinJames and RCB DonteJacksonOUT. Opponent scoring and protection pathways are additional to the Johnston/Njoku/McConkey human branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "SoFi exterior conditions", "detail": "Exterior NWS15\u201320mph wind, but coveredfield/open sides. Do not equate exteriorrain with on-fieldrain; airflow uncertainty retained.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 3.6777508724718118, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 2.955882352941174, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 2.8231514876773254, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872989", "matchup": "Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -105.0, "pick": "Under 41.5", "line": 41.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872989", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.261159+00:00", "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "canonical_buffer": 4.376958511281693, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.376958511281693, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.3769585112816927, "worst_case": { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.376958511281693, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.3769585112816927 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.376958511281693, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.3769585112816927 }, { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 15.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.376958511281693, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 15.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.376958511281693 }, { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.376958511281693, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.376958511281693 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver starting corners", "detail": "Both first-listed outsideCBs SurtainII and MossOUT. No quantified replacement coverage bound; consistent treatment with NewEngland.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Chargers protection and secondary", "detail": "Starting RT JoeAltOUT with multipleOLabsences and backupBransonTaylorQ; starting SS DerwinJames and RCB DonteJacksonOUT. Opponent scoring and protection pathways are additional to the Johnston/Njoku/McConkey human branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "SoFi exterior conditions", "detail": "Exterior NWS15\u201320mph wind, but coveredfield/open sides. Do not equate exteriorrain with on-fieldrain; airflow uncertainty retained.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.376958511281693, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -5.391176470588235, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -6.342503450665063, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872989", "matchup": "Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer3.6778 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-2.3222 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-5.3222", "3 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Los Angeles Chargers +3.5", "line": 3.5, "selection_side": "home", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872989", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.261159+00:00", "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "canonical_buffer": 3.6777508724718118, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": -2.3222491275281882, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -5.322249127528188, "worst_case": { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.3222491275281882, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.322249127528188 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6777508724718118, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.6777508724718118 }, { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 15.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.6777508724718118, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 15.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.3222491275281882 }, { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -2.3222491275281882, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": -5.322249127528188 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver starting corners", "detail": "Both first-listed outsideCBs SurtainII and MossOUT. No quantified replacement coverage bound; consistent treatment with NewEngland.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Chargers protection and secondary", "detail": "Starting RT JoeAltOUT with multipleOLabsences and backupBransonTaylorQ; starting SS DerwinJames and RCB DonteJacksonOUT. Opponent scoring and protection pathways are additional to the Johnston/Njoku/McConkey human branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "SoFi exterior conditions", "detail": "Exterior NWS15\u201320mph wind, but coveredfield/open sides. Do not equate exteriorrain with on-fieldrain; airflow uncertainty retained.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 3.6777508724718118, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 2.955882352941174, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 2.8231514876773254, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872989", "matchup": "Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer4.3770 below required5", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer4.3770 below required5", "2 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -105.0, "pick": "Under 41.5", "line": 41.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872989", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.261159+00:00", "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "canonical_buffer": 4.376958511281693, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.376958511281693, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.3769585112816927, "worst_case": { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.376958511281693, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.3769585112816927 }, "scenario_count": 3, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.376958511281693, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.3769585112816927 }, { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 15.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.376958511281693, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 15.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.376958511281693 }, { "score": [ 18.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.376958511281693, "adverse_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.376958511281693 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Denver starting corners", "detail": "Both first-listed outsideCBs SurtainII and MossOUT. No quantified replacement coverage bound; consistent treatment with NewEngland.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Chargers protection and secondary", "detail": "Starting RT JoeAltOUT with multipleOLabsences and backupBransonTaylorQ; starting SS DerwinJames and RCB DonteJacksonOUT. Opponent scoring and protection pathways are additional to the Johnston/Njoku/McConkey human branches.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "SoFi exterior conditions", "detail": "Exterior NWS15\u201320mph wind, but coveredfield/open sides. Do not equate exteriorrain with on-fieldrain; airflow uncertainty retained.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.376958511281693, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -5.391176470588235, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -6.342503450665063, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872991", "matchup": "Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "TIER_ELIGIBLE", "decision": "ELIGIBLE_NOT_PUBLISHED", "reasons": [ "All recorded numerical and risk gates passed; ranking quota is separate." ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Arizona Cardinals +5.5", "line": 5.5, "selection_side": "home", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872991", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.254873+00:00", "base_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "canonical_buffer": 3.6148489225235494, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.6148489225235494, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 0.6148489225235494, "worst_case": { "score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6148489225235494, "adverse_score": [ 31.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.6148489225235494 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6148489225235494, "adverse_score": [ 31.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.6148489225235494 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Interior defensive availability", "detail": "Detroit first-listed RDT TyleikWilliamsQ and Arizona first-listed RDT WalterNolenQ; interior rotation uncertainty. Detroit Branch/YaSin are second-listed in currentdepth; preserve established-role context without relabeling every reserve as a starter.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Arizona safety role", "detail": "First-listed FS AndrewWingardOUT. One confirmed safety replacement, without the multiple-starting-corner mechanism of NE/DEN. Reserve line absences on both teams do not automatically trigger a fixed deduction.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 3.614848922523546, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 2.352941176470587, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 1.3135869655823136, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872991", "matchup": "Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer0.9273 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.9273 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.0727", "Total stress retains-2.0727, below1point", "1 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -115.0, "pick": "Over 54.5", "line": 54.5, "selection_side": "over", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872991", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.254873+00:00", "base_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "canonical_buffer": 0.9273489225235565, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.9273489225235565, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -2.0726510774764435, "worst_case": { "score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.9273489225235565, "adverse_score": [ 25.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.0726510774764435 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.9273489225235565, "adverse_score": [ 25.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.0726510774764435 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Interior defensive availability", "detail": "Detroit first-listed RDT TyleikWilliamsQ and Arizona first-listed RDT WalterNolenQ; interior rotation uncertainty. Detroit Branch/YaSin are second-listed in currentdepth; preserve established-role context without relabeling every reserve as a starter.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Arizona safety role", "detail": "First-listed FS AndrewWingardOUT. One confirmed safety replacement, without the multiple-starting-corner mechanism of NE/DEN. Reserve line absences on both teams do not automatically trigger a fixed deduction.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.9273489225235565, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -1.3470588235294159, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 0.32537351787823354, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872991", "matchup": "Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer3.6148 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer3.6148 below required4", "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -112.0, "pick": "Arizona Cardinals +5.5", "line": 5.5, "selection_side": "home", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872991", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.254873+00:00", "base_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "canonical_buffer": 3.6148489225235494, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.6148489225235494, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 0.6148489225235494, "worst_case": { "score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6148489225235494, "adverse_score": [ 31.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.6148489225235494 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.6148489225235494, "adverse_score": [ 31.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.6148489225235494 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Interior defensive availability", "detail": "Detroit first-listed RDT TyleikWilliamsQ and Arizona first-listed RDT WalterNolenQ; interior rotation uncertainty. Detroit Branch/YaSin are second-listed in currentdepth; preserve established-role context without relabeling every reserve as a starter.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Arizona safety role", "detail": "First-listed FS AndrewWingardOUT. One confirmed safety replacement, without the multiple-starting-corner mechanism of NE/DEN. Reserve line absences on both teams do not automatically trigger a fixed deduction.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 3.614848922523546, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 2.352941176470587, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 1.3135869655823136, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872991", "matchup": "Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer0.9273 below required5", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.9273 below required5", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.0727", "Total stress retains-2.0727, below1point", "1 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes2 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -115.0, "pick": "Over 54.5", "line": 54.5, "selection_side": "over", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872991", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.049975+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.254873+00:00", "base_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "canonical_buffer": 0.9273489225235565, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.9273489225235565, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -2.0726510774764435, "worst_case": { "score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.9273489225235565, "adverse_score": [ 25.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.0726510774764435 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.9273489225235565, "adverse_score": [ 25.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.0726510774764435 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Interior defensive availability", "detail": "Detroit first-listed RDT TyleikWilliamsQ and Arizona first-listed RDT WalterNolenQ; interior rotation uncertainty. Detroit Branch/YaSin are second-listed in currentdepth; preserve established-role context without relabeling every reserve as a starter.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Arizona safety role", "detail": "First-listed FS AndrewWingardOUT. One confirmed safety replacement, without the multiple-starting-corner mechanism of NE/DEN. Reserve line absences on both teams do not automatically trigger a fixed deduction.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 2, "tier_downgrade_required": 1, "tier_quality_floor": "Two medium risks excluded from POD and Bonus because Bonus shares POD data-quality floor; only optional Free slots remain OFF", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.9273489225235565, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -1.3470588235294159, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 0.32537351787823354, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872992", "matchup": "San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.4289 below required3", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-3.5711 below required3", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-6.5711", "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -105.0, "pick": "San Francisco 49ers +3", "line": 3.0, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872992", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.051776+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.290761+00:00", "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.4289471562824687, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": -3.5710528437175313, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -6.571052843717531, "worst_case": { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.5710528437175313, "adverse_score": [ 14.354192606676541, 23.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.571052843717531 }, "scenario_count": 9, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313 }, { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.428947156282469, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.4289471562824687 }, { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.428947156282469, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 5.428947156282469 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.5710528437175313, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.5710528437175313 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.428947156282469, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.4289471562824687 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.5710528437175313, "adverse_score": [ 14.354192606676541, 23.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.571052843717531 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.5710528437175313, "adverse_score": [ 14.354192606676541, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.5710528437175313 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687, "adverse_score": [ 14.354192606676541, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "San Francisco pressure and coverage combination", "detail": "First-listed RDE NickBosaOUT, firstSS MarquesSigleOUT and firstnickel UptonStoutQ. Elite edge loss plus secondary contingency creates an independent opposing-offense pathway outside receiver/RB human scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Seattle defensive reserve losses", "detail": "JulianNeal and ChazzSurratt are reserve/support roles in currentreview. No second missing starter inferred from injury count; SF Juszczyk blocking absence remains an unestimated supporting mechanism.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.4289471562824687, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -0.5941176470588267, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 3.1561844080480483, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872992", "matchup": "San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "1 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -105.0, "pick": "Under 45.5", "line": 45.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872992", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.051776+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.290761+00:00", "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "canonical_buffer": 4.220561942929386, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.220561942929386, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.2205619429293861, "worst_case": { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.2205619429293861 }, "scenario_count": 9, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.2205619429293861 }, { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 10.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 10.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 16.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 13.220561942929386 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "San Francisco pressure and coverage combination", "detail": "First-listed RDE NickBosaOUT, firstSS MarquesSigleOUT and firstnickel UptonStoutQ. Elite edge loss plus secondary contingency creates an independent opposing-offense pathway outside receiver/RB human scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Seattle defensive reserve losses", "detail": "JulianNeal and ChazzSurratt are reserve/support roles in currentreview. No second missing starter inferred from injury count; SF Juszczyk blocking absence remains an unestimated supporting mechanism.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.220561942929386, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -5.364705882352936, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -5.830299693442875, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872992", "matchup": "San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.4289 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-3.5711 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-6.5711", "2 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -105.0, "pick": "San Francisco 49ers +3", "line": 3.0, "selection_side": "away", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872992", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.051776+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.290761+00:00", "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.4289471562824687, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": -3.5710528437175313, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -6.571052843717531, "worst_case": { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.5710528437175313, "adverse_score": [ 14.354192606676541, 23.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.571052843717531 }, "scenario_count": 9, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313 }, { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.428947156282469, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.4289471562824687 }, { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 8.428947156282469, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 5.428947156282469 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.5710528437175313, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.5710528437175313 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 5.428947156282469, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 2.4289471562824687 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -3.5710528437175313, "adverse_score": [ 14.354192606676541, 23.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -6.571052843717531 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.5710528437175313, "adverse_score": [ 14.354192606676541, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.5710528437175313 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.4289471562824687, "adverse_score": [ 14.354192606676541, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.5710528437175313 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "San Francisco pressure and coverage combination", "detail": "First-listed RDE NickBosaOUT, firstSS MarquesSigleOUT and firstnickel UptonStoutQ. Elite edge loss plus secondary contingency creates an independent opposing-offense pathway outside receiver/RB human scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Seattle defensive reserve losses", "detail": "JulianNeal and ChazzSurratt are reserve/support roles in currentreview. No second missing starter inferred from injury count; SF Juszczyk blocking absence remains an unestimated supporting mechanism.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 2, "unresolved_medium": 0, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.4289471562824687, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -0.5941176470588267, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 3.1561844080480483, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872992", "matchup": "San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer4.2206 below required5", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer4.2206 below required5", "1 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -105.0, "pick": "Under 45.5", "line": 45.5, "selection_side": "under", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872992", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.051776+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.290761+00:00", "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "canonical_buffer": 4.220561942929386, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": 4.220561942929386, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 1.2205619429293861, "worst_case": { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.2205619429293861 }, "scenario_count": 9, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 1.2205619429293861 }, { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 20.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 7.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 4.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 17.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 10.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 20.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 10.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 7.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 17.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 13.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 10.220561942929386 }, { "score": [ 14.354192606676541, 14.925245450394073 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 16.220561942929386, "adverse_score": [ 17.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "stressed_buffer": 13.220561942929386 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "San Francisco pressure and coverage combination", "detail": "First-listed RDE NickBosaOUT, firstSS MarquesSigleOUT and firstnickel UptonStoutQ. Elite edge loss plus secondary contingency creates an independent opposing-offense pathway outside receiver/RB human scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Seattle defensive reserve losses", "detail": "JulianNeal and ChazzSurratt are reserve/support roles in currentreview. No second missing starter inferred from injury count; SF Juszczyk blocking absence remains an unestimated supporting mechanism.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": true, "gate_evidence": "All applicable frozen cases plus3point adverse survive" } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 4.220561942929386, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -5.364705882352936, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -5.830299693442875, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872993", "matchup": "Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer0.3549 below required3", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.3549 below required3", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.6451", "3 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -120.0, "pick": "Atlanta Falcons -3", "line": -3.0, "selection_side": "home", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872993", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.453328+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.695686+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "canonical_buffer": 0.35488398363017026, "required_buffer": 3, "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.35488398363017026, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -2.6451160163698297, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.35488398363017026, "adverse_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.6451160163698297 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.35488398363017026, "adverse_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.6451160163698297 }, { "score": [ 18.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.3548839836301703, "adverse_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.35488398363017026 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Baltimore edge and corner contingency", "detail": "First-listed edge TreyHendricksonOUT and firstRCB MarlonHumphreyQ with reserveTampaIR. These pressure/coverage paths are outside the Huntley/Flowers human assumptions.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Atlanta tackle and defensive-unit contingency", "detail": "Starting LT JakeMatthewsQ; first-listed ZaDariusSmithOUT with first-line Deablo/EbukamQ. No supported active/inactive protection/defense bound in the frozen skill-player scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Baltimore center transition", "detail": "Acquired CamJurgensOUT, current interior protection rotation uncertain; no automatic trade-3. Actual Jurgens direct snaps remain zero in this event.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.35488398363017026, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -0.6058823529411761, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -2.1746282205195726, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872993", "matchup": "Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.7439 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-0.2561 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-3.2561", "Total stress retains-3.2561, below1point", "3 unresolved high-severity risks" ], "price": -115.0, "pick": "Over 43.5", "line": 43.5, "selection_side": "over", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872993", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.453328+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.695686+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.743932719066379, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.2560672809336211, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -3.256067280933621, "worst_case": { "score": [ 18.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.2560672809336211, "adverse_score": [ 15.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.256067280933621 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.743932719066379, "adverse_score": [ 18.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.2560672809336211 }, { "score": [ 18.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.2560672809336211, "adverse_score": [ 15.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.256067280933621 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Baltimore edge and corner contingency", "detail": "First-listed edge TreyHendricksonOUT and firstRCB MarlonHumphreyQ with reserveTampaIR. These pressure/coverage paths are outside the Huntley/Flowers human assumptions.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Atlanta tackle and defensive-unit contingency", "detail": "Starting LT JakeMatthewsQ; first-listed ZaDariusSmithOUT with first-line Deablo/EbukamQ. No supported active/inactive protection/defense bound in the frozen skill-player scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Baltimore center transition", "detail": "Acquired CamJurgensOUT, current interior protection rotation uncertain; no automatic trade-3. Actual Jurgens direct snaps remain zero in this event.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.743932719066379, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 1.3117647058823536, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 2.11436071514904, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872993", "matchup": "Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer0.3549 below required4", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer0.3549 below required4", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-2.6451", "3 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -120.0, "pick": "Atlanta Falcons -3", "line": -3.0, "selection_side": "home", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872993", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.453328+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.695686+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "canonical_buffer": 0.35488398363017026, "required_buffer": 4, "worst_applicable_buffer": 0.35488398363017026, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -2.6451160163698297, "worst_case": { "score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.35488398363017026, "adverse_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.6451160163698297 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 0.35488398363017026, "adverse_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": -2.6451160163698297 }, { "score": [ 18.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.3548839836301703, "adverse_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.35488398363017026 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Baltimore edge and corner contingency", "detail": "First-listed edge TreyHendricksonOUT and firstRCB MarlonHumphreyQ with reserveTampaIR. These pressure/coverage paths are outside the Huntley/Flowers human assumptions.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Atlanta tackle and defensive-unit contingency", "detail": "Starting LT JakeMatthewsQ; first-listed ZaDariusSmithOUT with first-line Deablo/EbukamQ. No supported active/inactive protection/defense bound in the frozen skill-player scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Baltimore center transition", "detail": "Acquired CamJurgensOUT, current interior protection rotation uncertain; no automatic trade-3. Actual Jurgens direct snaps remain zero in this event.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 0.35488398363017026, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": -0.6058823529411761, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": -2.1746282205195726, "same_direction": false, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." }, { "event_id": "401872993", "matchup": "Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical buffer2.7439 below required5", "Applicable availability/overlap minimum buffer-0.2561 below required5", "Worst3point adverse changes or reaches market side; buffer-3.2561", "Total stress retains-3.2561, below1point", "3 unresolved high-severity risks", "Conservative ON excludes1 unresolved medium risks" ], "price": -115.0, "pick": "Over 43.5", "line": 43.5, "selection_side": "over", "provider": "DraftKings", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872993", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.453328+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:49:17.695686+00:00", "base_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "canonical_buffer": 2.743932719066379, "required_buffer": 5, "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.2560672809336211, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -3.256067280933621, "worst_case": { "score": [ 18.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.2560672809336211, "adverse_score": [ 15.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.256067280933621 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.743932719066379, "adverse_score": [ 18.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.2560672809336211 }, { "score": [ 18.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.2560672809336211, "adverse_score": [ 15.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.256067280933621 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Opponent+3 in every spread case; same swing as margin stress, not double counted", "favorite_underdog_check": "Every case uses selected side against positive opponent-offense variance. Same frozen side must survive; opposite side never automatically promoted." }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Baltimore edge and corner contingency", "detail": "First-listed edge TreyHendricksonOUT and firstRCB MarlonHumphreyQ with reserveTampaIR. These pressure/coverage paths are outside the Huntley/Flowers human assumptions.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Atlanta tackle and defensive-unit contingency", "detail": "Starting LT JakeMatthewsQ; first-listed ZaDariusSmithOUT with first-line Deablo/EbukamQ. No supported active/inactive protection/defense bound in the frozen skill-player scenarios.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Baltimore center transition", "detail": "Acquired CamJurgensOUT, current interior protection rotation uncertain; no automatic trade-3. Actual Jurgens direct snaps remain zero in this event.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "reasoning": "Specific unit/role mechanism assessed; unestimated conversion alone is not an automatic exclusion. No fabricated new point coefficient." }, { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Frozen covered-player availability/overlap branches", "detail": "Resolved for that market only when every applicable active/inactive and overlap branch survives required buffer and3point adverse. Do not treat a questionable player as OUT.", "markets": [ "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen branch fails same-side/minimum total stress requirement" } ], "unresolved_high": 3, "unresolved_medium": 1, "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "tier_quality_floor": "Normal tier quality floor", "second_review_completed": true, "independent_selected_side_buffer": 2.743932719066379, "other_engine_context": { "Classic": { "signed_difference": 1.3117647058823536, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" }, "Primary": { "signed_difference": 2.11436071514904, "same_direction": true, "decision": "PROVISIONAL / NOT LIVE; arithmetic context, not a fourth independent engine" } }, "calibration": "No probability inferred from these human sensitivities or point cushions." } ], "rankings": { "OFF": [ { "event_id": "401872990", "market": "total", "tier": "Free Pick 1", "pick": "Under 47.5", "price": -118.0, "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.479871595995121, "unresolved_medium": 2 }, { "event_id": "401872988", "market": "spread", "tier": "Free Pick 2", "pick": "New York Giants +3.5", "price": -108.0, "worst_stressed_buffer": 2.1000621655416296, "unresolved_medium": 2 } ], "ON": [] }, "count": 52, "risk_assessment_note": "Specific severity evaluation uses frozen personnel and official weather evidence; no score/scenario edited. Full13-event defense/protection review v2 replaces incomplete first gate risk classification; original gates unchanged. Human scenarios are not calibrated uncertainty bounds.", "board_scope": "NFL only; parent reconciles all-sport ranking and maximum tiers. No forced selection quota.", "validation": { "all52_unique": true, "all_prices_after_freeze": true, "score_checksum_unchanged": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true } }