{ "createdUtc": "2026-10-11T11:35:22.687763+00:00", "reviewers": "Three independent agents plus parent; seven named desks share reviewers.", "events": [ { "eventId": "401898400", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Elapsed before retry cutoff; no new pregame forecast. Live participants in official/current sporting capture; no prospective replacement forecast backdated." }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Elapsed before retry cutoff; no new pregame forecast. Prior/current/preseason records remain separate." }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Elapsed before retry cutoff; no new pregame forecast. No scores enter this new prospective comparison." }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Elapsed before retry cutoff; no new pregame forecast. 06:00 ET Venetian Arena, Macao; neutral venue." }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Elapsed before retry cutoff; no new pregame forecast. No in-play prices requested for this event." }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Elapsed before retry cutoff; no new pregame forecast. PASS / ELAPSED. Live result is not final; grade only after verified final." } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Elapsed before retry cutoff; no new pregame forecast" } ] }, { "eventId": "401872981", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley confirmed OUT/IR; Official team expects Shipley primary workhorse; Bigsby also IR. Same backfield lost carries must not get a second automatic -3 for Bigsby.; DeVonta Smith confirmed OUT/IR; Targets redistributed among Wicks/Lemon/Cooper/Goedert. Hollywood Brown also OUT but his absence overlaps the same receiver replacement pool. Jacksonville Jaguars: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Philadelphia Eagles: 4 current games, offensive 1.786 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.432; 9.875 expected drives. Jacksonville Jaguars: 4 current games, offensive 2.811 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.114; 10.125 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Tottenham Hotspur Stadium; listed 2026-10-11T13:30Z. JAX designated home; geographic neutral Tottenham, London. Both teams travel overseas; no ordinary Jacksonville home-venue assumption.", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872981", "name": "Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars", "start_et": "2026-10-11T09:30:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "5534", "fullName": "Tottenham Hotspur Stadium", "address": { "city": "London", "country": "England" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": true, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [ "JAX designated home; geographic neutral Tottenham, London. Both teams travel overseas; no ordinary Jacksonville home-venue assumption." ], "rest": [ { "team": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Paycor Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cincinnati", "state": "OH", "zipCode": "45202", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/30/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Philadelphia Eagles", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Lincoln Financial Field", "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "zipCode": "19148", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 9:30 AM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 9:30 AM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00", "weather": { "source": "https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcpvwd6uv?nearestTo=Tottenham+Hale", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:22:59.594767+00:00", "source_update": "2026-10-11 08:58 BST location view; regional outlook 04:00 BST", "assessment": "Sunday dry with light winds, maximum regional16C; local daily15C maximum. Sunny intervals becoming overcast. Daily gust range15-25mph, not a kickoff-specific gust forecast.", "numerical_adjustment": null } }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-11T11:22:59.594767+00:00; source_update: 2026-10-11 08:58 BST location view; regional outlook 04:00 BST; assessment: Sunday dry with light winds, maximum regional16C; local daily15C maximum. Sunny intervals becoming overcast. Daily gust range15-25mph, not a kickoff-specific gust forecast.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "source": "https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gcpvwd6uv?nearestTo=Tottenham+Hale", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:22:59.594767+00:00", "source_update": "2026-10-11 08:58 BST location view; regional outlook 04:00 BST", "assessment": "Sunday dry with light winds, maximum regional16C; local daily15C maximum. Sunny intervals becoming overcast. Daily gust range15-25mph, not a kickoff-specific gust forecast.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Philadelphia Eagles", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Philadelphia Eagles", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872982", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Cincinnati Bengals: Ja'Marr Chase conditional if OUT or materially limited; Main receiver; joint loss with Higgins overlaps passing drives.; Tee Higgins conditional if OUT or materially limited; Main receiver; joint loss with Chase overlaps passing drives. Miami Dolphins: Caleb Douglas confirmed OUT/IR; Depth-chart starter with 10 targets; rookie college comparison remains missing.; De'Von Achane confirmed OUT/IR; Official IR September28; lead back34 current carries12 targets. Existing absence already enters current team rates; isolate extra human assumption rather than claim measured incremental injury effect.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Cincinnati Bengals: 4 current games, offensive 2.275 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.658; 9.750 expected drives. Miami Dolphins: 4 current games, offensive 1.243 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.881; 9.875 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Hard Rock Stadium; listed 2026-10-11T17:00Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872982", "name": "Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins", "start_et": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "3948", "fullName": "Hard Rock Stadium", "address": { "city": "Miami Gardens", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "Miami Dolphins", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T16:05:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "U.S. Bank Stadium", "address": { "city": "Minneapolis", "state": "MN", "zipCode": "55415", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Cincinnati Bengals", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Paycor Stadium", "address": { "city": "Cincinnati", "state": "OH", "zipCode": "45202", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/MFL/107,58/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T08:31:51+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 91, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 5 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "SE", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 91, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 11 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "SE", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 90, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 15 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 90, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 16 }, "windSpeed": "8 mph", "windDirection": "SE", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 1:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "updated: 2026-10-11T08:31:51+00:00; hours: startTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00; temperature: 91; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 5; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: SE; shortForecast: Sunny; startTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00; temperature: 91; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 11; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: SE; shortForecast: Sunny; startTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00; temperature: 90; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 15; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; startTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00; temperature: 90; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 16; windSpeed: 8 mph; windDirection: SE; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/MFL/107,58/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T08:31:51+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 91, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 5 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "SE", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 91, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 11 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "SE", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 90, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 15 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 90, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 16 }, "windSpeed": "8 mph", "windDirection": "SE", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Cincinnati Bengals", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Ja'Marr Chase", "Tee Higgins" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Cincinnati Bengals", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Miami Dolphins", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Cincinnati Bengals", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Ja'Marr Chase", "Tee Higgins" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Cincinnati Bengals", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Miami Dolphins", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872983", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Cleveland Browns: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger. New York Jets: Breece Hall confirmed OUT/IR; Lead role51 carries10 targets; official team OUT.; Adonai Mitchell confirmed OUT/IR; Main WR14 current targets absent. Tim Patrick QUESTIONABLE: conditional pool Patrick if available, Reynolds/Metchie if Patrick unavailable. The API omission is superseded by official weekly report; no claim Patrick is cleared. Shared passing opportunities receive one joint pathway assumption.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Cleveland Browns: 4 current games, offensive 1.688 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.100; 11.000 expected drives. New York Jets: 4 current games, offensive 1.854 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.159; 10.625 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "MetLife Stadium; listed 2026-10-11T17:00Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872983", "name": "Cleveland Browns at New York Jets", "start_et": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "3839", "fullName": "MetLife Stadium", "address": { "city": "East Rutherford", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "New York Jets", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Soldier Field", "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "60605", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "New York Jets at Chicago Bears", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Cleveland Browns", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-01T20:15:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Huntington Bank Field", "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "OH", "zipCode": "44114", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns", "calendar_days_between": 10, "rest_full_days": 9, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/5/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/30,46/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T09:35:19+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 63, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 92 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Light Rain" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 62, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 95 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 63, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 95 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 62, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 95 }, "windSpeed": "13 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 1:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "updated: 2026-10-11T09:35:19+00:00; hours: startTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00; temperature: 63; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 92; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Light Rain; startTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00; temperature: 62; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 95; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Rain; startTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00; temperature: 63; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 95; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Rain; startTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00; temperature: 62; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 95; windSpeed: 13 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Rain; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OKX/30,46/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T09:35:19+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 63, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 92 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Light Rain" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 62, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 95 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 63, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 95 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 62, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 95 }, "windSpeed": "13 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Cleveland Browns", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "New York Jets", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Cleveland Browns", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "New York Jets", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872984", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Houston Texans: Tank Dell confirmed unavailable; Dell2024 main receiver reference versus ongoing2026 IR. Current replacement receiving pool Collins/Noel/Boutte/Hutchinson is specifically evidenced in October5 team review. No extra statistical injury subtraction: current team inputs already contain his absence.; Jayden Higgins confirmed unavailable; Higgins2025 main receiver reference versus August21 IR; current pool Noel/Boutte/Hutchinson receives displaced work. Boutte preseason acquisition August25 and October5 actual Stroud contested-catch connection support current familiarity. Same passing opportunities overlap Dell absence. Tennessee Titans: Carnell Tate conditional if OUT or materially limited; Starting receiver with 32 current targets; rookie prior college data must be separated from NFL.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Houston Texans: 4 current games, offensive 1.867 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.976; 10.875 expected drives. Tennessee Titans: 4 current games, offensive 1.375 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.422; 10.625 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Nissan Stadium; listed 2026-10-11T17:00Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872984", "name": "Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans", "start_et": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "3810", "fullName": "Nissan Stadium", "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "Tennessee Titans", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "M&T Bank Stadium", "address": { "city": "Baltimore", "state": "MD", "zipCode": "21230", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/10/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Houston Texans", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Reliant Stadium", "address": { "city": "Houston", "state": "TX", "zipCode": "77054", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/34/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OHX/50,57/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T06:31:22+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T12:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 8 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WNW", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 69, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WNW", "shortForecast": "Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 72, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WNW", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 73, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 2 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WNW", "shortForecast": "Partly Sunny" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 1:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "updated: 2026-10-11T06:31:22+00:00; hours: startTime: 2026-10-11T12:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 8; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: WNW; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; startTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00; temperature: 69; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 3; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: WNW; shortForecast: Cloudy; startTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00; temperature: 72; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 3; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: WNW; shortForecast: Mostly Cloudy; startTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-05:00; temperature: 73; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 2; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: WNW; shortForecast: Partly Sunny; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OHX/50,57/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T06:31:22+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T12:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 8 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WNW", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 69, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WNW", "shortForecast": "Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 72, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 3 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WNW", "shortForecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 73, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 2 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "WNW", "shortForecast": "Partly Sunny" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Houston Texans", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Tennessee Titans", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Carnell Tate" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Tennessee Titans", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Houston Texans", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Tennessee Titans", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Carnell Tate" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Tennessee Titans", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872985", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Indianapolis Colts: Keenan Allen conditional if OUT or materially limited; Main receiver19 targets; other receiver injuries raise route redistribution uncertainty.; Alec Pierce confirmed OUT/IR; Official IR September26; deep receiving role moves to Treadwell/Gould/Westbrook-Ikhine after Slayton also ruled out. Pittsburgh Steelers: Michael Pittman Jr. confirmed OUT/IR; 12 current targets and111 targets each prior season; DK/Germie Bernard also absorb work. Current team split separate from prior Colts.; Rico Dowdle conditional if OUT or materially limited; Material committee role15 carries7 targets; potential workload redistribution.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Indianapolis Colts: 4 current games, offensive 2.267 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.761; 11.375 expected drives. Pittsburgh Steelers: 4 current games, offensive 1.479 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.261; 11.750 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Acrisure Stadium; listed 2026-10-11T17:00Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872985", "name": "Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers", "start_et": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "3752", "fullName": "Acrisure Stadium", "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-01T20:15:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Huntington Bank Field", "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "OH", "zipCode": "44114", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns", "calendar_days_between": 10, "rest_full_days": 9, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Indianapolis Colts", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T09:30:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Tottenham Hotspur Stadium", "address": { "city": "London", "country": "England" } }, "prior_game": "Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/PBZ/77,66/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T10:56:35+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 61, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 94 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 61, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 79 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 62, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 58 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers Likely" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 63, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 49 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Chance Rain Showers" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 1:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "updated: 2026-10-11T10:56:35+00:00; hours: startTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00; temperature: 61; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 94; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Rain Showers; startTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00; temperature: 61; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 79; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Rain Showers; startTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00; temperature: 62; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 58; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Rain Showers Likely; startTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00; temperature: 63; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 49; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Chance Rain Showers; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/PBZ/77,66/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T10:56:35+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 61, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 94 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 61, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 79 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 62, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 58 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers Likely" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 63, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 49 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Chance Rain Showers" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Indianapolis Colts", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Keenan Allen" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Indianapolis Colts", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Rico Dowdle" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Indianapolis Colts", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Keenan Allen" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Indianapolis Colts", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Rico Dowdle" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872986", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Las Vegas Raiders: Jalen Nailor confirmed OUT/IR; Listed starting WR; 11 current targets. Multiple reserve WR absences complicate replacement routes.; Ashton Jeanty conditional if OUT or materially limited; Lead RB: 78 carries and25 targets; questionable cannot be treated as OUT. New England Patriots: Mack Hollins confirmed OUT/IR; 20 current targets establish material receiver role; current depth already moved him to IR.; Rhamondre Stevenson conditional if OUT or materially limited; Material RB committee member:44 carries,16 targets; conditional touch redistribution.; A.J. Brown confirmed OUT/IR; Official IR September12, earliest return Week6; main receiver acquired offseason, former PHI splits retained. Shares passing replacement pool with Hollins.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Las Vegas Raiders: 4 current games, offensive 2.354 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.791; 11.375 expected drives. New England Patriots: 4 current games, offensive 1.372 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.787; 11.250 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Gillette Stadium; listed 2026-10-11T17:00Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872986", "name": "Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots", "start_et": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "3738", "fullName": "Gillette Stadium", "address": { "city": "Foxborough", "state": "MA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "New England Patriots", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Highmark Stadium", "address": { "city": "Orchard Park", "state": "NY", "zipCode": "14127", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Las Vegas Raiders", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T16:25:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Allegiant Stadium", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "zipCode": "89118", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/67,88/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T06:17:26+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 60, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 4 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 60, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 60, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 11 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 60, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 18 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Rain Showers" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 1:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "updated: 2026-10-11T06:17:26+00:00; hours: startTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00; temperature: 60; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 4; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Cloudy; startTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00; temperature: 60; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 7; windSpeed: 6 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Cloudy; startTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00; temperature: 60; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 11; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Cloudy; startTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00; temperature: 60; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 18; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Slight Chance Rain Showers; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/67,88/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T06:17:26+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 60, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 4 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 60, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 7 }, "windSpeed": "6 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 60, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 11 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Cloudy" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 60, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 18 }, "windSpeed": "5 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Rain Showers" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Las Vegas Raiders", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Ashton Jeanty" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Las Vegas Raiders", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "New England Patriots", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Rhamondre Stevenson" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "New England Patriots", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Las Vegas Raiders", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Ashton Jeanty" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Las Vegas Raiders", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "New England Patriots", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Rhamondre Stevenson" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "New England Patriots", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872987", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson conditional if OUT or materially limited; Primary receiver; overlap with Addison passing-game replacement must be resolved.; Jordan Addison conditional if OUT or materially limited; Main receiver; overlap with Jefferson. Jauan Jennings and Hockenson are alternatives.; Jordan Mason confirmed OUT/IR; Official team transaction September16 IR and Dallas signing; ongoing prior absence already partly present in current team-rate input. New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara conditional if OUT or materially limited; 25 carries and14 targets; conditional RB redistribution.; Travis Etienne Jr. confirmed OUT/IR; Official IR October1;30 carries13 targets through3 games. Kamara/Miller committee redistribution; if Kamara also unavailable both losses share backfield drives.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Minnesota Vikings: 4 current games, offensive 1.739 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.783; 11.500 expected drives. New Orleans Saints: 4 current games, offensive 2.386 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.109; 11.250 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Caesars Superdome; listed 2026-10-11T17:00Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872987", "name": "Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints", "start_et": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "3493", "fullName": "Caesars Superdome", "address": { "city": "New Orleans", "state": "LA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "New Orleans Saints", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-05T20:15:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Caesars Superdome", "address": { "city": "New Orleans", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "70112", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints", "calendar_days_between": 6, "rest_full_days": 5, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Minnesota Vikings", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T16:05:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "U.S. Bank Stadium", "address": { "city": "Minneapolis", "state": "MN", "zipCode": "55415", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 1:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Minnesota Vikings", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Justin Jefferson", "Jordan Addison" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Minnesota Vikings", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "New Orleans Saints", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Alvin Kamara" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "New Orleans Saints", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Minnesota Vikings", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Justin Jefferson", "Jordan Addison" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Minnesota Vikings", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "New Orleans Saints", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Alvin Kamara" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "New Orleans Saints", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872988", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "New York Giants: Jaxson Dart confirmed OUT/IR; Official Giants IR September24; Winston current starter. McCarthy acquisition is separate trade scenario, not second injury deduction. Washington Commanders: Stefon Diggs confirmed OUT/IR; Main receiver31 current targets; McLaurin status compounds same passing pathways.; Terry McLaurin conditional if OUT or materially limited; Official questionable despite encouraging Friday practice; condition retained.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "New York Giants: 4 current games, offensive 1.854 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.652; 10.875 expected drives. Washington Commanders: 4 current games, offensive 1.745 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.927; 11.000 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Northwest Stadium; listed 2026-10-11T17:00Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872988", "name": "New York Giants at Washington Commanders", "start_et": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "3719", "fullName": "Northwest Stadium", "address": { "city": "Landover", "state": "MD", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "Washington Commanders", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T09:30:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Tottenham Hotspur Stadium", "address": { "city": "London", "country": "England" } }, "prior_game": "Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "New York Giants", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "MetLife Stadium", "address": { "city": "East Rutherford", "state": "NJ", "zipCode": "07073", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/19/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LWX/102,73/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T08:53:54+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 68, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 77 }, "windSpeed": "14 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 68, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 80 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 69, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 68 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers Likely" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 72 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers Likely" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 1:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "updated: 2026-10-11T08:53:54+00:00; hours: startTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 77; windSpeed: 14 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Rain Showers; startTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 80; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Rain Showers; startTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00; temperature: 69; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 68; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Rain Showers Likely; startTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00; temperature: 70; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 72; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: E; shortForecast: Rain Showers Likely; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LWX/102,73/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T08:53:54+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 68, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 77 }, "windSpeed": "14 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 68, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 80 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 69, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 68 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers Likely" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-04:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 72 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "E", "shortForecast": "Rain Showers Likely" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "New York Giants", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Washington Commanders", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Terry McLaurin" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Washington Commanders", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "New York Giants", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Washington Commanders", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Terry McLaurin" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Washington Commanders", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872990", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Chicago Bears: Kyle Monangai confirmed OUT/IR; Material committee member: 60 current carries, redistribution toward Swift/Roschon Johnson.; Caleb Williams conditional if OUT or materially limited; Official questionable remains conditional; neither absence nor limited workload confirmed. Green Bay Packers: Jayden Reed confirmed OUT/IR; Official season-ending surgery; offense had been structured around Reed/Watson/Golden/Kraft. Moore/Melton replace slot work.; Josh Jacobs confirmed OUT/IR; Official commissioner exempt list August30; healthy unavailability qualifies replacement review.2026 current team rates entirely reflect replacement; prior-year starter rates do not. Human sensitivity explicitly additional assumption, not re-estimated injury coefficient.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Chicago Bears: 4 current games, offensive 2.667 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.283; 11.000 expected drives. Green Bay Packers: 4 current games, offensive 1.659 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.667; 10.375 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Lambeau Field; listed 2026-10-11T17:00Z. Official flex verified:13:00 ET, not superseded16:25 ET listing.", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872990", "name": "Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers", "start_et": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "3798", "fullName": "Lambeau Field", "address": { "city": "Green Bay", "state": "WI", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [ "Official flex verified:13:00 ET, not superseded16:25 ET listing." ], "rest": [ { "team": "Green Bay Packers", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Raymond James Stadium", "address": { "city": "Tampa", "state": "FL", "zipCode": "33607", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Chicago Bears", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Soldier Field", "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "zipCode": "60605", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "New York Jets at Chicago Bears", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/GRB/78,31/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T08:56:32+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T12:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 75, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "13 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 77, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 79, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 80, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Sunny" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 1:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 1:00 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "updated: 2026-10-11T08:56:32+00:00; hours: startTime: 2026-10-11T12:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00; temperature: 75; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 13 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Sunny; startTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00; temperature: 77; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Sunny; startTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00; temperature: 79; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Sunny; startTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-05:00; temperature: 80; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 12 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Sunny; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/GRB/78,31/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T08:56:32+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T12:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 75, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "13 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 77, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 79, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 80, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "12 mph", "windDirection": "S", "shortForecast": "Sunny" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Chicago Bears", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Caleb Williams" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Chicago Bears", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Green Bay Packers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Chicago Bears", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Caleb Williams" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Chicago Bears", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Green Bay Packers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872989", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Denver Broncos: Pat Bryant confirmed unavailable; Official October9 corresponding transaction promotes Humphrey for Bryant IR after ankle injury. Bryant9 catches/12 targets/133 yards/1TD in4games; projected displaced12-target role shared among Humphrey, Franklin and Mims alongside Sutton/Waddle. The projection does not claim known future routes. Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston confirmed OUT/IR; Main receiver18 current targets; McConkey conditional shares passing-drive pathway.; Ladd McConkey conditional if OUT or materially limited; Main receiver17 targets; reserve Brenen Thompson OUT too.; David Njoku confirmed OUT/IR; Njoku IR confirmed; Kolar Sept21 planned IR statement was explicitly corrected Sept25: Kolar was NOT placed on IR. Current Oct9 official report Kolar QUESTIONABLE. Gadsden healthy lead receiving replacement; Rucci support. If Kolar returns, no automatic second -3; both allocations retained conditionally.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Denver Broncos: 4 current games, offensive 1.619 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.122; 11.375 expected drives. Los Angeles Chargers: 4 current games, offensive 1.426 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.136; 11.375 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "SoFi Stadium; listed 2026-10-11T20:05Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872989", "name": "Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers", "start_et": "2026-10-11T16:05:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "7065", "fullName": "SoFi Stadium", "address": { "city": "Inglewood", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "Los Angeles Chargers", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T16:25:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Lumen Field", "address": { "city": "Seattle", "state": "WA", "zipCode": "98134", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Denver Broncos", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T16:25:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Levi's Stadium", "address": { "city": "Santa Clara", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "95054", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LOX/151,41/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T06:16:34+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 72, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 45 }, "windSpeed": "20 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "shortForecast": "Chance Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 72, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 45 }, "windSpeed": "15 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "shortForecast": "Chance Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 45 }, "windSpeed": "15 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "shortForecast": "Chance Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 45 }, "windSpeed": "15 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "shortForecast": "Chance Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T18:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 68, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 20 }, "windSpeed": "15 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Rain Showers" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null, "interpretation": "NWS is exterior venue forecast. SoFi covered field and open sides mean exterior rain forecast is not a direct on-field rain forecast; no weather coefficient." }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 4:05 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 4:05 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "updated: 2026-10-11T06:16:34+00:00; hours: startTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00; temperature: 72; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 45; windSpeed: 20 mph; windDirection: SW; shortForecast: Chance Rain Showers; startTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00; temperature: 72; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 45; windSpeed: 15 mph; windDirection: SW; shortForecast: Chance Rain Showers; startTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00; temperature: 70; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 45; windSpeed: 15 mph; windDirection: SW; shortForecast: Chance Rain Showers; startTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00; temperature: 70; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 45; windSpeed: 15 mph; windDirection: SW; shortForecast: Chance Rain Showers; startTime: 2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T18:00:00-07:00; temperature: 68; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 20; windSpeed: 15 mph; windDirection: SW; shortForecast: Slight Chance Rain Showers; numerical_adjustment: None; interpretation: NWS is exterior venue forecast. SoFi covered field and open sides mean exterior rain forecast is not a direct on-field rain forecast; no weather coefficient.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LOX/151,41/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T06:16:34+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 72, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 45 }, "windSpeed": "20 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "shortForecast": "Chance Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 72, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 45 }, "windSpeed": "15 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "shortForecast": "Chance Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 45 }, "windSpeed": "15 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "shortForecast": "Chance Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 70, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 45 }, "windSpeed": "15 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "shortForecast": "Chance Rain Showers" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T18:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 68, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 20 }, "windSpeed": "15 mph", "windDirection": "SW", "shortForecast": "Slight Chance Rain Showers" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null, "interpretation": "NWS is exterior venue forecast. SoFi covered field and open sides mean exterior rain forecast is not a direct on-field rain forecast; no weather coefficient." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Denver Broncos", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Los Angeles Chargers", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Ladd McConkey" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Los Angeles Chargers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Denver Broncos", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Los Angeles Chargers", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Ladd McConkey" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Los Angeles Chargers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872991", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Detroit Lions: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger. Arizona Cardinals: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Detroit Lions: 4 current games, offensive 2.767 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.581; 10.750 expected drives. Arizona Cardinals: 4 current games, offensive 1.977 points/drive against opponent defensive 3.024; 10.750 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "State Farm Stadium; listed 2026-10-11T20:25Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872991", "name": "Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals", "start_et": "2026-10-11T16:25:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "3970", "fullName": "State Farm Stadium", "address": { "city": "Glendale", "state": "AZ", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "Arizona Cardinals", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "MetLife Stadium", "address": { "city": "East Rutherford", "state": "NJ", "zipCode": "07073", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/22/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Detroit Lions", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T20:20:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Bank of America Stadium", "address": { "city": "Charlotte", "state": "NC", "zipCode": "28202", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/8/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 4:25 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 4:25 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Detroit Lions", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Arizona Cardinals", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Detroit Lions", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Arizona Cardinals", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872992", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "San Francisco 49ers: Ricky Pearsall confirmed unavailable; Pearsall season-ending IR; August1 official report explicitly links Samuel return to receiver need. Samuel historical SF2019-24, WAS2025 and SF2026 remain separate. Current Evans/Samuel starters, Cowing/Watkins/Cooks support pool; forecast shares not claimed exact.; Christian Kirk confirmed unavailable; Kirk IR designated return August30; projected slot/inside work redistributed to Samuel/Cooks/Watkins. Same receiving drives overlap Pearsall loss. Current team rates already incorporate season-opening absence.; Demarcus Robinson conditional if material intended receiver role is assumed; Robinson September26 IR after Week2 high ankle injury; six current targets indicate supporting role. Conditional material-receiver scenario retained only if intended return-to-reference role includes meaningful routes; Cowing/Watkins projected pool. No claim that six targets alone establish main role. Seattle Seahawks: Jadarian Price confirmed OUT/IR; Official October2 re-aggravation; current depth IR.28 carries7 targets; Wilson/Holani replace starter carries. Rookie college season data separate.; Zach Charbonnet confirmed OUT/IR; Official OUT Week5; prior material committee back, no current2026 games. Ongoing PUP/ACL absence and Price loss share same reference backfield: do not simply sum.; George Holani conditional if OUT or materially limited; Holani questionable with22carries/8targets; if unavailable, current lead Wilson absorbs additional committee work with reserve Jones support. Price/Charbonnet/Holani are the same backfield opportunity chain, not three independent lead workloads.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "San Francisco 49ers: 4 current games, offensive 3.211 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.457; 10.500 expected drives. Seattle Seahawks: 4 current games, offensive 2.234 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.730; 10.500 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Lumen Field; listed 2026-10-11T20:25Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872992", "name": "San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks", "start_et": "2026-10-11T16:25:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "3673", "fullName": "Lumen Field", "address": { "city": "Seattle", "state": "WA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T16:25:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Lumen Field", "address": { "city": "Seattle", "state": "WA", "zipCode": "98134", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "San Francisco 49ers", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T16:25:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Levi's Stadium", "address": { "city": "Santa Clara", "state": "CA", "zipCode": "95054", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/25/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/SEW/125,67/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T06:26:38+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 57, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "N", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 58, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "N", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 58, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "NNW", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 59, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "NNW", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T18:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 58, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "8 mph", "windDirection": "N", "shortForecast": "Sunny" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 4:25 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 4:25 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "updated: 2026-10-11T06:26:38+00:00; hours: startTime: 2026-10-11T13:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00; temperature: 57; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: N; shortForecast: Sunny; startTime: 2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00; temperature: 58; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: N; shortForecast: Sunny; startTime: 2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00; temperature: 58; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: NNW; shortForecast: Sunny; startTime: 2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00; temperature: 59; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 9 mph; windDirection: NNW; shortForecast: Sunny; startTime: 2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T18:00:00-07:00; temperature: 58; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 8 mph; windDirection: N; shortForecast: Sunny; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/SEW/125,67/forecast/hourly", "updated": "2026-10-11T06:26:38+00:00", "hours": [ { "startTime": "2026-10-11T13:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 57, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "N", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T14:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 58, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "N", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T15:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 58, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "NNW", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T16:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 59, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "9 mph", "windDirection": "NNW", "shortForecast": "Sunny" }, { "startTime": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-07:00", "endTime": "2026-10-11T18:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 58, "temperatureUnit": "F", "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "windSpeed": "8 mph", "windDirection": "N", "shortForecast": "Sunny" } ], "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "San Francisco 49ers", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Demarcus Robinson" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "San Francisco 49ers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "George Holani" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "San Francisco 49ers", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Demarcus Robinson" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "San Francisco 49ers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "George Holani" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892482", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "SEA: Official projected lines supply fourth-line and third-pair alternatives; Melanson/Lindgren absent. Projected roles are not confirmed opening lines. Retry: official last-game per-strength exposure and separate two prior seasons/current season quantified; unknown PP unit labels retained as unknown. WSH: Dubois illness creates in/out branch; other centers are candidates only because a replacement was not announced. Roy/Sandin absences and projected defense pairs retained. Goalie remains separate. Retry: official last-game per-strength exposure and separate two prior seasons/current season quantified; unknown PP unit labels retained as unknown. Dubois OUT sensitivity now explicitly reallocates his center slot to roster center/wing Jenner and Jenner wing slot to scratched healthy LW Miroshnichenko; PP redistributed proportionally among observed forward PP participants. Equal strength-state total checks pass. This resolves review completeness under conditional-scenario rule, not actual lineup certainty.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic checked all seven future nonfootball numeric events. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Capital One Arena; listed 2026-10-11T21:00Z. Regular season; tracking-only gate retained. Official previous-day schedule identifies any back-to-back below.", "details": { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": "401892482", "name": "Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals", "start_et": "2026-10-11T17:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2027, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "1823", "fullName": "Capital One Arena", "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [ "Regular season; tracking-only gate retained. Official previous-day schedule identifies any back-to-back below." ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "previous_day_games": [], "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 5:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 5:00 PM EDT" } }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:32.076035+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892483", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "VAN: Projected centers Pettersson/Rossi/Ohgren/Sasson with Chytil absent. Goalie Demko absence is separate from offensive overlay. Retry: official last-game per-strength exposure and separate two prior seasons/current season quantified; unknown PP unit labels retained as unknown. Chytil already absent at season opening; do not subtract a full healthy Chytil role from current aggregate data. Projected centers Pettersson, Rossi, Ohgren, Sasson. NYR: Parssinen projected fourth-line center and reported recall; Veleno absent. Shesterkin/Korpisalo goalie absences, Garand starter projection belong in separate goalie analysis. Source reports Sunday recall without a full UTC publication timestamp; confirmation remains required. Retry: official last-game per-strength exposure and separate two prior seasons/current season quantified; unknown PP unit labels retained as unknown.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic checked all seven future nonfootball numeric events. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Madison Square Garden; listed 2026-10-11T22:00Z. Regular season; tracking-only gate retained. Official previous-day schedule identifies any back-to-back below.", "details": { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": "401892483", "name": "Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers", "start_et": "2026-10-11T18:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2027, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [ "Regular season; tracking-only gate retained. Official previous-day schedule identifies any back-to-back below." ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "previous_day_games": [ { "id": 2026020071, "season": 20262027, "gameType": 2, "venue": { "default": "Prudential Center" }, "neutralSite": false, "startTimeUTC": "2026-10-10T19:30:00Z", "gameState": "OFF", "awayTeam": { "id": 23, "commonName": { "default": "Canucks" }, "placeName": { "default": "Vancouver" }, "placeNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vancouver", "fr": "de Vancouver" }, "abbrev": "VAN", "logo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/VAN_light.svg", "darkLogo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/VAN_dark.svg", "awaySplitSquad": false, "score": 1 }, "homeTeam": { "id": 1, "commonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "placeName": { "default": "New Jersey" }, "placeNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" }, "abbrev": "NJD", "logo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/NJD_light.svg", "darkLogo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/NJD_dark.svg", "homeSplitSquad": false, "score": 4 }, "gameScheduleState": "OK" } ], "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 6:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 6:00 PM EDT" } }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:32.076035+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401898401", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Cleveland Cavaliers: Oct8 actual starters included Tyson/Mitchell/Watson with Mobley/Allen; Porter supplied bench creation. Harden conditional return versus rest changes ballhandling. Diop is an NBA rookie per official profile; missing NBA seasons are not zero-performance seasons. Retry: full-team 240-minute conditional replay and actual shot/creation redistribution now attached. Rest/DNP reasons remain separate from injury; dated flags do not establish current absence. Orlando Magic: Oct7 actual Richardson started while Suggs/Black did not dress; Richardson/Carter/Davison provide observed ballhandling branch. Isaac PERSONAL DNP differs from injury and is retained distinctly. Current availability not established from earlier DNPs. Retry: full-team 240-minute conditional replay and actual shot/creation redistribution now attached. Rest/DNP reasons remain separate from injury; dated flags do not establish current absence.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic checked all seven future nonfootball numeric events. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Rocket Arena; listed 2026-10-11T22:30Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401898401", "name": "Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers", "start_et": "2026-10-11T18:30:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2027, "type": 1, "slug": "preseason" }, "venue": { "id": "3417", "fullName": "Rocket Arena", "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "OH" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 6:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 6:30 PM EDT" } }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.885896+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401892484", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "CAR: Official Oct11 preview retains shoulder recovery; prior Oct3 lines Robinson with Aho/Svechnikov only a reference. Oct11 exact line/PP changes are not inferred from old preview. Retry: official last-game per-strength exposure and separate two prior seasons/current season quantified; unknown PP unit labels retained as unknown. Jarvis has been absent in current regular-season reference; no fresh full-player loss. This conditional branch retains latest actual rotation; a return would reopen comparison. PHI: Oct3 injury list used as dated prior-state reference; Bunting signed Oct6 (not a trade). Current line/scratch/injury map cannot be inferred from roster order. Retry: official last-game per-strength exposure and separate two prior seasons/current season quantified; unknown PP unit labels retained as unknown. Latest actual Oct10 role includes Bunting; October3 injury labels are dated references only. Conditional same-active-lineup branch avoids claiming old injury list is current confirmation.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic checked all seven future nonfootball numeric events. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Xfinity Mobile Arena; listed 2026-10-11T23:00Z. Regular season; tracking-only gate retained. Official previous-day schedule identifies any back-to-back below.", "details": { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": "401892484", "name": "Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers", "start_et": "2026-10-11T19:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2027, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "1845", "fullName": "Xfinity Mobile Arena", "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [ "Regular season; tracking-only gate retained. Official previous-day schedule identifies any back-to-back below." ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "previous_day_games": [ { "id": 2026020070, "season": 20262027, "gameType": 2, "venue": { "default": "TD Garden" }, "neutralSite": false, "startTimeUTC": "2026-10-10T17:00:00Z", "gameState": "OFF", "awayTeam": { "id": 4, "commonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "placeName": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "Philadelphie" }, "placeNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" }, "abbrev": "PHI", "logo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/PHI_light.svg", "darkLogo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/PHI_dark.svg", "awaySplitSquad": false, "score": 1 }, "homeTeam": { "id": 6, "commonName": { "default": "Bruins" }, "placeName": { "default": "Boston" }, "placeNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Boston", "fr": "de Boston" }, "abbrev": "BOS", "logo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/BOS_light.svg", "darkLogo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/BOS_dark.svg", "homeSplitSquad": false, "score": 5 }, "gameScheduleState": "OK" }, { "id": 2026020078, "season": 20262027, "gameType": 2, "venue": { "default": "United Center" }, "neutralSite": false, "startTimeUTC": "2026-10-10T23:00:00Z", "gameState": "OFF", "awayTeam": { "id": 12, "commonName": { "default": "Hurricanes" }, "placeName": { "default": "Carolina", "fr": "Caroline" }, "placeNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Carolina", "fr": "de la Caroline" }, "abbrev": "CAR", "logo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/CAR_light.svg", "darkLogo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/CAR_dark.svg", "awaySplitSquad": false, "score": 5 }, "homeTeam": { "id": 16, "commonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "placeName": { "default": "Chicago" }, "placeNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" }, "abbrev": "CHI", "logo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/CHI_light.svg", "darkLogo": "https://assets.nhle.com/logos/nhl/svg/CHI_dark.svg", "homeSplitSquad": false, "score": 2 }, "gameScheduleState": "OK" } ], "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:32.076035+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "401901821", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Charlotte Hornets: White ruled out for preseason by league-carried team announcement. Oct6 actual starting guards Schroder/Allen, wing McNeeley; this identifies an observed replacement branch, not a forecast for Oct11. Other listed injuries require current confirmation. Retry: full-team 240-minute conditional replay and actual shot/creation redistribution now attached. Rest/DNP reasons remain separate from injury; dated flags do not establish current absence. Milwaukee Bucks: League roster notes describe veteran Oct7 inactivity without attributed injuries. Keep rests separate from injury replacement; actual reserve minutes/creation retained. Retry: full-team 240-minute conditional replay and actual shot/creation redistribution now attached. Rest/DNP reasons remain separate from injury; dated flags do not establish current absence.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic checked all seven future nonfootball numeric events. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Spectrum Center; listed 2026-10-11T23:00Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401901821", "name": "Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets", "start_et": "2026-10-11T19:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2027, "type": 1, "slug": "preseason" }, "venue": { "id": "1893", "fullName": "Spectrum Center", "address": { "city": "Charlotte", "state": "NC" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.885896+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] }, { "eventId": "761859", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official status: LA Lozano thigh OUT; STL Pompeu knee OUT. Current XI unposted; prior reference kept distinct.", "reviewer": "Parent and independent schedule/offensive review" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Official STL preview retains17MLS unbeaten/19allcompetitions separately; no current score model. Prior trade team splits remain separate.", "reviewer": "Parent and independent schedule/offensive review" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "No registered MLS engine: all4 numeric means/probabilities unavailable. Eight both-team trade paths reviewed without score conversions.", "reviewer": "Parent and independent schedule/offensive review" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Official preview Sunday19ET EnergizerPark; LA travels toStLouis. No invented travel coefficient.", "reviewer": "Parent and independent schedule/offensive review" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "updated: 2026-10-11T10:26:27+00:00; hours: startTime: 2026-10-11T18:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T19:00:00-05:00; temperature: 84; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 2 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Clear; startTime: 2026-10-11T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T20:00:00-05:00; temperature: 80; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: SE; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; startTime: 2026-10-11T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T21:00:00-05:00; temperature: 75; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 3 mph; windDirection: SE; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; startTime: 2026-10-11T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-11T22:00:00-05:00; temperature: 74; temperatureUnit: F; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: S; shortForecast: Mostly Clear; numerical_adjustment: None" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting research completed before fresh prices. Earlier exposure disclosed.", "reviewer": "Parent and independent schedule/offensive review" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / MODEL UNAVAILABLE in all configurations; no numerical score, trade deduction or bet recommendation.", "reviewer": "Parent and independent schedule/offensive review" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "No registered MLS engine" } ] }, { "eventId": "401908030", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Los Angeles Dodgers: Rojas absent from published projected nine even if eligible. Conditional no starting-slot change if Edman remains 2B; 0 starting PA displaced in that specific branch, bench PA unknown. Ohtani/Freeman remain projected starters, no invented substitute or automatic deduction. Official active roster lists Rojas, but roster membership does not prove health. Retry: current projected order, stage-separated empirical slot PA, bench appearance references and separate 2024/2025/2026 handedness samples attached. Unsupported run conversion stays unestimated. Milwaukee Brewers: Official preview reports no injury of note; projected left-handed-starter branch has Lara in RF, Bauers 1B. Compare Frelick/Lara and Vaughn/Bauers as lineup/platoon sensitivities; no new injury deduction for an ordinary platoon. Retry: current projected order, stage-separated empirical slot PA, bench appearance references and separate 2024/2025/2026 handedness samples attached. Unsupported run conversion stays unestimated.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Projected batting slots have 12 recent official box-score references; the actual NLCS order is unannounced.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic checked all seven future nonfootball numeric events. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "American Family Field; listed 2026-10-12T00:00Z. ", "details": { "sport": "MLB", "event_id": "401908030", "name": "Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers", "start_et": "2026-10-11T20:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 3, "slug": "post-season" }, "venue": { "id": "4242", "fullName": "American Family Field", "address": { "city": "Milwaukee", "state": "Wisconsin" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 1, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Scheduled", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.978148+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "lineup", "risk": "Actual lineup, starter/bullpen availability and calibrated probability gates remain unresolved. PASS." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "lineup", "risk": "Actual lineup, starter/bullpen availability and calibrated probability gates remain unresolved. PASS." } ] }, { "eventId": "401872993", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson confirmed OUT/IR; Official coach confirms Huntley starter. Familiarity supported by sixth Baltimore season and OC practice report; new 2026 coordinator must not be equated to unchanged system.; Zay Flowers conditional if OUT or materially limited; Main receiver22 targets. Any joint QB/WR deduction must account for the same lost passing drives. Atlanta Falcons: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Baltimore Ravens: 4 current games, offensive 2.578 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.739; 11.375 expected drives. Atlanta Falcons: 4 current games, offensive 2.043 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.182; 11.375 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Mercedes-Benz Stadium; listed 2026-10-12T00:20Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NFL", "event_id": "401872993", "name": "Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons", "start_et": "2026-10-11T20:20:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2026, "type": 2, "slug": "regular-season" }, "venue": { "id": "5348", "fullName": "Mercedes-Benz Stadium", "address": { "city": "Atlanta", "state": "GA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "rest": [ { "team": "Atlanta Falcons", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-05T20:15:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "Caesars Superdome", "address": { "city": "New Orleans", "state": "LA", "zipCode": "70112", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints", "calendar_days_between": 6, "rest_full_days": 5, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/1/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." }, { "team": "Baltimore Ravens", "prior_date_et": "2026-10-04T13:00:00-04:00", "prior_venue": { "fullName": "M&T Bank Stadium", "address": { "city": "Baltimore", "state": "MD", "zipCode": "21230", "country": "USA" } }, "prior_game": "Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens", "calendar_days_between": 7, "rest_full_days": 6, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "travel_inference": "Venue-to-venue route only; actual itinerary unverified except London statements." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 8:20 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 8:20 PM EDT" }, "isTBDFlex": false }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.917343+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "team": "Baltimore Ravens", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Zay Flowers" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Baltimore Ravens", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Atlanta Falcons", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "team": "Baltimore Ravens", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Zay Flowers" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Baltimore Ravens", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Atlanta Falcons", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ] }, { "eventId": "401908941", "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Denver Nuggets: Most recent actual starting five Gordon/Johnson/Jokic/Murray/Braun retained. Jones roster flag is dated; bench wing rotation carries preseason uncertainty. No new absence for the starting five established. Retry: full-team 240-minute conditional replay and actual shot/creation redistribution now attached. Rest/DNP reasons remain separate from injury; dated flags do not establish current absence. Chicago Bulls: Oct9 Awaka started at center and Wilson handled large minutes while Claxton/Collins/Smith did not play; collector tags those DNPs coaching decisions. Dated injury flags must not override actual reason without current source. Retry: full-team 240-minute conditional replay and actual shot/creation redistribution now attached. Rest/DNP reasons remain separate from injury; dated flags do not establish current absence.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Parent reconciliation of independent evidence" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independent arithmetic checked all seven future nonfootball numeric events. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Ball Arena; listed 2026-10-12T01:00Z. ", "details": { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401908941", "name": "Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets", "start_et": "2026-10-11T21:00:00-04:00", "season": { "year": 2027, "type": 1, "slug": "preseason" }, "venue": { "id": "892", "fullName": "Ball Arena", "address": { "city": "Denver", "state": "CO" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261011&limit=1000", "context": [], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Sun, October 11th at 9:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/11 - 9:00 PM EDT" } }, "prospective_eligible": true, "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:19:31.885896+00:00" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor/roof venue. Roof deployment status unconfirmed where retractable; no numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ] } ] }