{ "ledger": { "date_eastern": "2026-10-11", "created_utc": "2026-10-11T11:27:47.097930+00:00", "reviewer": "Independent football research agent", "desks": { "Parker Fields": "26teams and QB/RB/mainWR/receivingTE screened; fresh official sources resolve HOU/SF/DEN/LAC specified conflicts.", "Uncle Sibursam": "Separate2024/2025/current season team-split comparisons retained, projected allocations explicitly conditional, no college conversion.", "Gideon Marsh": "Fresh13NFL all-four arithmetic independently PASS. Isolated and joint human assumptions attached to exact refreshed bases; trade pathways no automatic -3. Parent synthesis/freeze/gates remain." }, "market_data_read": false, "scope": { "NFL": 13, "NCAA_FBS": 0, "NCAA_FCS": 0 }, "event_reviews": [ { "event_id": "401872981", "identity": { "id": "401872981", "date": "2026-10-11T13:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": true, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "5534", "fullName": "Tottenham Hotspur Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "London", "country": "England" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Philadelphia Eagles", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "21", "team": "Philadelphia Eagles", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "DeVonta Smith", "Hollywood Brown", "Britain Covey" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Dontayvion Wicks", "Darius Cooper", "Johnny Wilson" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Makai Lemon", "Elijah Moore" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Jalen Hurts", "Tanner McKee", "Cole Payton" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Dallas Goedert", "Johnny Mundt", "Zach Ertz", "E.J. Jenkins", "Grant Calcaterra", "Eli Stowers" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Saquon Barkley", "Will Shipley", "Dameon Pierce", "Carson Steele", "Tank Bigsby" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "DeVonta Smith", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T15:34Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4241478.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Hollywood Brown", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T00:53Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4241372.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Johnny Wilson", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-22T21:59Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4686104.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Grant Calcaterra", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T18:50Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4241374.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Eli Stowers", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-12T20:06Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4431574.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Saquon Barkley", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T15:32Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3929630.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Tank Bigsby", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-06T23:17Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4429013.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Saquon Barkley", "position": "RB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Will Shipley", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official team expects Shipley primary workhorse; Bigsby also IR. Same backfield lost carries must not get a second automatic -3 for Bigsby.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Saquon Barkley", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3929630/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "345", "rushingYards": "2,005", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "13", "longRushing": "72", "rushingFirstDowns": "82", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "280", "rushingYards": "1,140", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "65", "rushingFirstDowns": "48", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "36", "rushingYards": "182", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "42", "rushingFirstDowns": "6", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "33", "receivingTargets": "43", "receivingYards": "278", "yardsPerReception": "8.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "43", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "37", "receivingTargets": "50", "receivingYards": "273", "yardsPerReception": "7.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "47", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "8", "yardsPerReception": "2.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "11", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "1", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "0.1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "13", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "15", "totalTwoPointConvs": "3", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "96" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "9", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "56" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "345", "rushingYards": "2,005", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 21.5625 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "280", "rushingYards": "1,140", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 17.5 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "21", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "36", "rushingYards": "182", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 9.0 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "43", "receptions": "33", "receivingYards": "278", "yardsPerReception": "8.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.6875, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "50", "receptions": "37", "receivingYards": "273", "yardsPerReception": "7.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 3.125, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "7", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "8", "yardsPerReception": "2.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Will Shipley", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4431545/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "30", "rushingYards": "82", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "14", "rushingYards": "49", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "20", "rushingFirstDowns": "4", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "51", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "4", "receivingYards": "35", "yardsPerReception": "8.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "56", "yardsPerReception": "6.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "12", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "24", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "11", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "30", "rushingYards": "82", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 1.875 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "rushing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "14", "rushingYards": "49", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.9333333333333333 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "21", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "51", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 3.75 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "4", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "35", "yardsPerReception": "8.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "12", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "56", "yardsPerReception": "6.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.8, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "6", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "24", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/depthcharts", "https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-at-jaguars-injury-report-2026-nfl-week-5-london-international-game-saquon-barkley-devonta-smith", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 16.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 7.932352941176475, "total": 39.96764705882353, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 17.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 4.458931239157202, "total": 39.64915203683435, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 9.576729588103671, "total": 39.21078768769486, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 9.576729588103671, "total": 39.21078768769486, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "DeVonta Smith", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Darius Cooper", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Targets redistributed among Wicks/Lemon/Cooper/Goedert. Hollywood Brown also OUT but his absence overlaps the same receiver replacement pool.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "DeVonta Smith", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4241478/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "68", "receivingTargets": "89", "receivingYards": "833", "yardsPerReception": "12.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "49", "receivingFirstDowns": "42", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "77", "receivingTargets": "113", "receivingYards": "1,008", "yardsPerReception": "13.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "79", "receivingFirstDowns": "44", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "19", "receivingTargets": "27", "receivingYards": "235", "yardsPerReception": "12.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "31", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "1", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "1", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "89", "receptions": "68", "receivingYards": "833", "yardsPerReception": "12.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.846153846153846, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "113", "receptions": "77", "receivingYards": "1,008", "yardsPerReception": "13.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.647058823529412, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "27", "receptions": "19", "receivingYards": "235", "yardsPerReception": "12.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 9.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "rushing", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.07692307692307693 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Darius Cooper", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4715355/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "11", "receivingYards": "92", "yardsPerReception": "10.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "6", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "10", "receivingYards": "59", "yardsPerReception": "11.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4715355", "name": "Darius Cooper", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4715355/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.370503+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2627", "teamSlug": "tarleton-state-texans", "stats": { "receptions": "76", "receivingYards": "1,449", "yardsPerReception": "19.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "14", "longReception": "75" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2627", "teamSlug": "tarleton-state-texans", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "14", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "11", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "92", "yardsPerReception": "10.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.8461538461538461, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "10", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "59", "yardsPerReception": "11.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/21/depthcharts", "https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-at-jaguars-injury-report-2026-nfl-week-5-london-international-game-saquon-barkley-devonta-smith", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 16.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 7.932352941176475, "total": 39.96764705882353, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 17.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 4.458931239157202, "total": 39.64915203683435, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 9.576729588103671, "total": 39.21078768769486, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 9.576729588103671, "total": 39.21078768769486, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Saquon Barkley", "DeVonta Smith" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Saquon Barkley", "DeVonta Smith" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "home_margin": 7.932352941176475, "total": 39.96764705882353, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "home_margin": 4.458931239157202, "total": 39.64915203683435, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 9.576729588103671, "total": 39.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 9.576729588103671, "total": 39.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 13.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "home_margin": 10.932352941176475, "total": 36.96764705882353, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 14.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "home_margin": 7.458931239157202, "total": 36.64915203683435, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 12.576729588103671, "total": 36.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 12.576729588103671, "total": 36.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 13.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "home_margin": 10.932352941176475, "total": 36.96764705882353, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 14.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "home_margin": 7.458931239157202, "total": 36.64915203683435, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 12.576729588103671, "total": 36.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 12.576729588103671, "total": 36.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.997071+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "30", "team": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Parker Washington", "Josh Cameron" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/30/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Jakobi Meyers", "Travis Hunter" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/30/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Brian Thomas Jr.", "CJ Williams" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/30/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Trevor Lawrence", "Quinn Ewers" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/30/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Brenton Strange", "Nate Boerkircher", "Quintin Morris", "Tanner Koziol" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/30/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Bhayshul Tuten", "Chris Rodriguez Jr.", "LeQuint Allen Jr.", "Ameer Abdullah" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/30/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "home_margin": 4.932352941176475, "total": 42.96764705882353, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "home_margin": 1.4589312391572022, "total": 42.64915203683435, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 6.576729588103671, "total": 42.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 6.576729588103671, "total": 42.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "home_margin": 4.932352941176475, "total": 42.96764705882353, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "home_margin": 1.4589312391572022, "total": 42.64915203683435, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 6.576729588103671, "total": 42.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 6.576729588103671, "total": 42.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "home_margin": 4.932352941176475, "total": 42.96764705882353, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "home_margin": 1.4589312391572022, "total": 42.64915203683435, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 6.576729588103671, "total": 42.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 6.576729588103671, "total": 42.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.260565+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872990", "identity": { "id": "401872990", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3798", "fullName": "Lambeau Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Green Bay", "state": "WI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "3", "away_name": "Chicago Bears", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "9", "home_name": "Green Bay Packers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "3", "team": "Chicago Bears", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Rome Odunze", "Zavion Thomas" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Luther Burden III", "Jahdae Walker" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Kalif Raymond" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Caleb Williams", "Tyson Bagent", "Case Keenum" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Colston Loveland", "Cole Kmet", "Sam Roush", "Nikola Kalinic", "Hayden Large" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "D'Andre Swift", "Kyle Monangai", "Roschon Johnson", "Zavier Scott", "Brittain Brown" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Caleb Williams", "position": "QB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T19:03Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4431611.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Nikola Kalinic", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-19T12:07Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4916349.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Hayden Large", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-01T23:40Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-5150662.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Kyle Monangai", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T17:06Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4608686.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Brittain Brown", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T16:21Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4036032.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Kyle Monangai", "position": "RB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "D'Andre Swift", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Material committee member: 60 current carries, redistribution toward Swift/Roschon Johnson.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Kyle Monangai", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4608686/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "169", "rushingYards": "783", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "5", "longRushing": "39", "rushingFirstDowns": "40", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "60", "rushingYards": "324", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "61", "rushingFirstDowns": "16", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "30", "receivingYards": "164", "yardsPerReception": "9.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "34", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "5", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "7.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "2", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "34" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4608686", "name": "Kyle Monangai", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4608686/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.265812+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "164", "teamSlug": "rutgers-scarlet-knights", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "256", "rushingYards": "1,279", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "13", "longRushing": "62" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "164", "teamSlug": "rutgers-scarlet-knights", "stats": { "receptions": "14", "receivingYards": "75", "yardsPerReception": "5.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "14" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "164", "teamSlug": "rutgers-scarlet-knights", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "13", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "14", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "84" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "169", "rushingYards": "783", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 9.941176470588236 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "60", "rushingYards": "324", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 15.0 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "30", "receptions": "18", "receivingYards": "164", "yardsPerReception": "9.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.7647058823529411, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "3", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "5", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "7.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "D'Andre Swift", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4259545/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "253", "rushingYards": "959", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "longRushing": "56", "rushingFirstDowns": "43", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "223", "rushingYards": "1,087", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "9", "longRushing": "25", "rushingFirstDowns": "62", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "69", "rushingYards": "311", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "32", "rushingFirstDowns": "12", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "42", "receivingTargets": "52", "receivingYards": "386", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "42", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "34", "receivingTargets": "48", "receivingYards": "299", "yardsPerReception": "8.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "55", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "11", "receivingYards": "84", "yardsPerReception": "8.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "28.9" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "4.5" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "2.8" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "38" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "9", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "10", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "60" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "253", "rushingYards": "959", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 14.882352941176471 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "223", "rushingYards": "1,087", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 13.9375 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "69", "rushingYards": "311", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 17.25 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "3", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "52", "receptions": "42", "receivingYards": "386", "yardsPerReception": "9.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.0588235294117645, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "48", "receptions": "34", "receivingYards": "299", "yardsPerReception": "8.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "3", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "11", "receptions": "10", "receivingYards": "84", "yardsPerReception": "8.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.6724264705882348, "total": 42.43713235294118, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.834518572886058, "total": 42.16925892276744, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Caleb Williams", "position": "QB", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Tyson Bagent", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official questionable remains conditional; neither absence nor limited workload confirmed.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Caleb Williams", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4431611/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "351", "passingAttempts": "562", "completionPct": "62.5", "passingYards": "3,541", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.3", "passingTouchdowns": "20", "interceptions": "6", "longPassing": "47", "sacks": "68", "QBRating": "87.8", "adjQBR": "43.3" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "330", "passingAttempts": "568", "completionPct": "58.1", "passingYards": "3,942", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.9", "passingTouchdowns": "27", "interceptions": "7", "longPassing": "65", "sacks": "24", "QBRating": "90.1", "adjQBR": "58.2" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "36", "passingAttempts": "55", "completionPct": "65.5", "passingYards": "407", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.4", "passingTouchdowns": "2", "interceptions": "1", "longPassing": "47", "sacks": "5", "QBRating": "92.0", "adjQBR": "85.2" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "81", "rushingYards": "489", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "24", "rushingFirstDowns": "27", "rushingFumbles": "6", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "77", "rushingYards": "388", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "29", "rushingFirstDowns": "28", "rushingFumbles": "7", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "107", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "29", "rushingFirstDowns": "7", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "2", "receivingYards": "22", "yardsPerReception": "11.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "20", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "27", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "passingTouchdowns": "2", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "562", "passingYards": "3,541", "interceptions": "6" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "568", "passingYards": "3,942", "interceptions": "7" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "55", "passingYards": "407", "interceptions": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "81", "rushingYards": "489", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 4.764705882352941 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "77", "rushingYards": "388", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 4.529411764705882 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "107", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 7.5 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "2", "receptions": "2", "receivingYards": "22", "yardsPerReception": "11.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.11764705882352941, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Tyson Bagent", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4434153/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "2", "passingAttempts": "2", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "11", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "5.5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "6", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "89.6", "adjQBR": "47.6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "3", "passingAttempts": "4", "completionPct": "75.0", "passingYards": "47", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "11.8", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "22", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "113.5", "adjQBR": "11.4" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "30", "passingAttempts": "43", "completionPct": "69.8", "passingYards": "322", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "1", "longPassing": "37", "sacks": "2", "QBRating": "81.7", "adjQBR": "65.2" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "6", "rushingYards": "-7", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "-1", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "7", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "1", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "2", "passingYards": "11", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "4", "passingYards": "47", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "43", "passingYards": "322", "interceptions": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "6", "rushingYards": "-7", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 1.5 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "7", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "3", "category": "rushing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 2.0 } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/3/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.6724264705882348, "total": 42.43713235294118, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.834518572886058, "total": 42.16925892276744, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Kyle Monangai" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Caleb Williams" ], "included_players": [ "Kyle Monangai" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "home_margin": 0.6724264705882348, "total": 42.43713235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "home_margin": 3.834518572886058, "total": 42.16925892276744, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "home_margin": 0.6724264705882348, "total": 42.43713235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "home_margin": 3.834518572886058, "total": 42.16925892276744, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "home_margin": 0.6724264705882348, "total": 42.43713235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "home_margin": 3.834518572886058, "total": 42.16925892276744, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Kyle Monangai" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Caleb Williams" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Kyle Monangai", "Caleb Williams" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "home_margin": 0.6724264705882348, "total": 42.43713235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "home_margin": 3.834518572886058, "total": 42.16925892276744, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -1.6752573589959638, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 17.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "home_margin": 3.672426470588235, "total": 39.43713235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "home_margin": 6.834518572886058, "total": 39.16925892276744, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 19.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": 1.3247426410040362, "total": 41.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 19.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": 1.3247426410040362, "total": 41.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 17.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "home_margin": 3.672426470588235, "total": 39.43713235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "home_margin": 6.834518572886058, "total": 39.16925892276744, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 19.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": 1.3247426410040362, "total": 41.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 19.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": 1.3247426410040362, "total": 41.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.218851+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "9", "team": "Green Bay Packers", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Christian Watson", "Bo Melton", "Jayden Reed" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Matthew Golden", "J. Michael Sturdivant" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Skyy Moore", "Savion Williams" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Jordan Love", "Tyrod Taylor" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Tucker Kraft", "Jonnu Smith", "Mark Redman", "Josh Whyle", "Luke Musgrave", "Thomas Yassmin" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "MarShawn Lloyd", "Kaleb Johnson", "Pierre Strong Jr.", "Chris Brooks", "Josh Jacobs" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Jayden Reed", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-30T15:55Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4362249.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Savion Williams", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T22:04Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4431487.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Luke Musgrave", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-01T15:24Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4428085.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Thomas Yassmin", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T23:12Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4361027.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Chris Brooks", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T20:06Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3149687.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Josh Jacobs", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-13T15:09Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4047365.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Jayden Reed", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Skyy Moore", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official season-ending surgery; offense had been structured around Reed/Watson/Golden/Kraft. Moore/Melton replace slot work.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Jayden Reed", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4362249/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "55", "receivingTargets": "75", "receivingYards": "857", "yardsPerReception": "15.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "70", "receivingFirstDowns": "29", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "receptions": "19", "receivingTargets": "22", "receivingYards": "207", "yardsPerReception": "10.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "31", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "8", "receivingYards": "24", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "7", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "20", "rushingYards": "163", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "8.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "33", "rushingFirstDowns": "7", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "28", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "75", "receptions": "55", "receivingYards": "857", "yardsPerReception": "15.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.411764705882353, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "22", "receptions": "19", "receivingYards": "207", "yardsPerReception": "10.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.142857142857143, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "8", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "24", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "20", "rushingYards": "163", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 1.1764705882352942 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "28", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.42857142857142855 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Skyy Moore", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4430191/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "teamSlug": "kansas-city-chiefs", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "87", "yardsPerReception": "17.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "13", "receivingYards": "35", "yardsPerReception": "5.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "12", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "11", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "10", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "12", "teamSlug": "kansas-city-chiefs", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "12", "category": "receiving", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "3", "receptions": "0", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "7", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "87", "yardsPerReception": "17.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.4117647058823529, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "13", "receptions": "6", "receivingYards": "35", "yardsPerReception": "5.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "11", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.11764705882352941 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "12", "category": "passing", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/depthcharts", "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-ready-to-pull-together-to-fill-jayden-reed-s-void-oct-2-2026", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.88235294117647, 18.554779411764706 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -5.327573529411765, "total": 42.43713235294118, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.167370174940693, 20.00188874782675 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.165481427113942, "total": 42.16925892276744, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -7.675257358995964, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -7.675257358995964, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Josh Jacobs", "position": "RB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "MarShawn Lloyd", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official commissioner exempt list August30; healthy unavailability qualifies replacement review.2026 current team rates entirely reflect replacement; prior-year starter rates do not. Human sensitivity explicitly additional assumption, not re-estimated injury coefficient.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Josh Jacobs", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4047365/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "301", "rushingYards": "1,329", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "15", "longRushing": "38", "rushingFirstDowns": "73", "rushingFumbles": "4", "rushingFumblesLost": "3" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "234", "rushingYards": "929", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "13", "longRushing": "40", "rushingFirstDowns": "55", "rushingFumbles": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "36", "receivingTargets": "43", "receivingYards": "342", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "49", "receivingFirstDowns": "15", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "36", "receivingTargets": "44", "receivingYards": "282", "yardsPerReception": "7.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "31", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "6.2" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "15", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "16", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "96" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "13", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "14", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "84" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "301", "rushingYards": "1,329", "rushingFumblesLost": "3" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 17.705882352941178 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "234", "rushingYards": "929", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 15.6 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "43", "receptions": "36", "receivingYards": "342", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.5294117647058822, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "44", "receptions": "36", "receivingYards": "282", "yardsPerReception": "7.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.933333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "MarShawn Lloyd", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429023/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "rushingAttempts": "6", "rushingYards": "15", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "30", "rushingYards": "81", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "12", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "3", "yardsPerReception": "3.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "3", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "11", "receivingYards": "49", "yardsPerReception": "5.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "16", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "6", "rushingYards": "15", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.0 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "30", "rushingYards": "81", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 7.5 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "1", "receptions": "1", "receivingYards": "3", "yardsPerReception": "3.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "11", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "49", "yardsPerReception": "5.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/9/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-places-packers-rb-josh-jacobs-commissioner-exempt-list", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.88235294117647, 18.554779411764706 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -5.327573529411765, "total": 42.43713235294118, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.167370174940693, 20.00188874782675 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.165481427113942, "total": 42.16925892276744, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -7.675257358995964, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -7.675257358995964, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Jayden Reed", "Josh Jacobs" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Jayden Reed", "Josh Jacobs" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.88235294117647, 18.554779411764706 ], "home_margin": -5.327573529411765, "total": 42.43713235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.167370174940693, 20.00188874782675 ], "home_margin": -2.165481427113942, "total": 42.16925892276744, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 25.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -7.675257358995964, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 25.84769288150042, 18.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -7.675257358995964, "total": 44.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.88235294117647, 15.554779411764706 ], "home_margin": -8.327573529411765, "total": 39.43713235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 22.167370174940693, 17.00188874782675 ], "home_margin": -5.165481427113942, "total": 39.16925892276744, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 25.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -10.675257358995964, "total": 41.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 25.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -10.675257358995964, "total": 41.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.88235294117647, 21.554779411764706 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.88235294117647, 15.554779411764706 ], "home_margin": -8.327573529411765, "total": 39.43713235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.167370174940693, 23.00188874782675 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 22.167370174940693, 17.00188874782675 ], "home_margin": -5.165481427113942, "total": 39.16925892276744, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 25.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -10.675257358995964, "total": 41.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.84769288150042, 21.172435522504458 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 25.84769288150042, 15.172435522504458 ], "home_margin": -10.675257358995964, "total": 41.02012840400488, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.461871+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872984", "identity": { "id": "401872984", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3810", "fullName": "Nissan Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "34", "away_name": "Houston Texans", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Tennessee Titans", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "34", "team": "Houston Texans", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Nico Collins", "Jaylin Noel", "Jayden Higgins" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/34/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Xavier Hutchinson", "Jared Wayne" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/34/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Kayshon Boutte", "Tank Dell" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/34/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "C.J. Stroud", "Davis Mills", "Graham Mertz" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/34/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Dalton Schultz", "Foster Moreau", "Cade Stover", "Brevin Jordan", "Marlin Klein" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/34/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "David Montgomery", "Woody Marks", "Dare Ogunbowale", "British Brooks" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/34/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Jayden Higgins", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-08T20:42Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4877706.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Tank Dell", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T21:09Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4366031.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Graham Mertz", "position": "QB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-19T12:07Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4426335.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "British Brooks", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T00:35Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4373273.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Tank Dell", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed unavailable", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Jaylin Noel", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Dell2024 main receiver reference versus ongoing2026 IR. Current replacement receiving pool Collins/Noel/Boutte/Hutchinson is specifically evidenced in October5 team review. No extra statistical injury subtraction: current team inputs already contain his absence.", "familiarity": "Current official role evidence and historical team splits retained. Current coaching/play-call equivalence is not assumed; projected allocation remains conditional.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Tank Dell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4366031/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "51", "receivingTargets": "81", "receivingYards": "667", "yardsPerReception": "13.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "50", "receivingFirstDowns": "35", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "9", "rushingYards": "43", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "34", "category": "receiving", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "81", "receptions": "51", "receivingYards": "667", "yardsPerReception": "13.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.785714285714286, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "34", "category": "rushing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "9", "rushingYards": "43", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.6428571428571429 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "34", "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Jaylin Noel", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4586312/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "26", "receivingTargets": "35", "receivingYards": "292", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "44", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "8", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "186", "yardsPerReception": "23.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "52", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "6", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "25", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "8.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "13", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "34", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "35", "receptions": "26", "receivingYards": "292", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.0588235294117645, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "34", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "12", "receptions": "8", "receivingYards": "186", "yardsPerReception": "23.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "34", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "6", "rushingYards": "12", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.35294117647058826 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "34", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "25", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.75 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "34", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "34", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://www.houstontexans.com/team/transactions/2026", "https://www.houstontexans.com/team/players-roster/mobile", "https://www.houstontexans.com/news/jaylin-noel-kayshon-boutte-and-xavier-hutchinson-step-up-for-the-texans-against-dallas", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.9970588235294109, "total": 39.33235294117647, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -3.5300965947617655, "total": 38.40743302090449, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.706342823587768, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.706342823587768, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Jayden Higgins", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed unavailable", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Kayshon Boutte", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Higgins2025 main receiver reference versus August21 IR; current pool Noel/Boutte/Hutchinson receives displaced work. Boutte preseason acquisition August25 and October5 actual Stroud contested-catch connection support current familiarity. Same passing opportunities overlap Dell absence.", "familiarity": "Current official role evidence and historical team splits retained. Current coaching/play-call equivalence is not assumed; projected allocation remains conditional.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Jayden Higgins", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4877706/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "41", "receivingTargets": "68", "receivingYards": "525", "yardsPerReception": "12.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "75", "receivingFirstDowns": "28", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "34", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "68", "receptions": "41", "receivingYards": "525", "yardsPerReception": "12.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "34", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Kayshon Boutte", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429022/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "43", "receivingTargets": "68", "receivingYards": "589", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "25", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "33", "receivingTargets": "46", "receivingYards": "551", "yardsPerReception": "16.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "27", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "115", "yardsPerReception": "12.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "21", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "20" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "68", "receptions": "43", "receivingYards": "589", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.533333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "46", "receptions": "33", "receivingYards": "551", "yardsPerReception": "16.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.2857142857142856, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "34", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "14", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "115", "yardsPerReception": "12.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "34", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://www.houstontexans.com/team/transactions/2026", "https://www.houstontexans.com/news/jaylin-noel-kayshon-boutte-and-xavier-hutchinson-step-up-for-the-texans-against-dallas", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.9970588235294109, "total": 39.33235294117647, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -3.5300965947617655, "total": 38.40743302090449, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.706342823587768, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.706342823587768, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Tank Dell", "Jayden Higgins" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Tank Dell", "Jayden Higgins" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "home_margin": -0.9970588235294109, "total": 39.33235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "home_margin": -3.5300965947617655, "total": 38.40743302090449, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": 0.706342823587768, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": 0.706342823587768, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "home_margin": -0.9970588235294109, "total": 39.33235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "home_margin": -3.5300965947617655, "total": 38.40743302090449, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": 0.706342823587768, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": 0.706342823587768, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 17.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "home_margin": 2.002941176470589, "total": 36.33235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 17.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "home_margin": -0.5300965947617655, "total": 35.40743302090449, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": 3.706342823587768, "total": 37.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": 3.706342823587768, "total": 37.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.273899+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "10", "team": "Tennessee Titans", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Carnell Tate", "Calvin Ridley" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/10/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Wan'Dale Robinson", "Chimere Dike" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/10/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Elic Ayomanor" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/10/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Cam Ward", "Mitchell Trubisky" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/10/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Gunnar Helm", "Daniel Bellinger", "David Martin-Robinson", "Kylen Granson", "Jaren Kanak" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/10/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Tony Pollard", "Tyjae Spears", "Nicholas Singleton", "Julius Chestnut", "Michael Carter", "Kalel Mullings" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/10/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Carnell Tate", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T20:15Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4871023.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "David Martin-Robinson", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T23:46Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4360978.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Jaren Kanak", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-19T12:07Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4877034.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Carnell Tate", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Calvin Ridley", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Starting receiver with 32 current targets; rookie prior college data must be separated from NFL.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Carnell Tate", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4871023/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "22", "receivingTargets": "32", "receivingYards": "268", "yardsPerReception": "12.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "33", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "2", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4871023", "name": "Carnell Tate", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4871023/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.370503+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "194", "teamSlug": "ohio-state-buckeyes", "stats": { "receptions": "52", "receivingYards": "733", "yardsPerReception": "14.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "40" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "teamSlug": "ohio-state-buckeyes", "stats": { "receptions": "51", "receivingYards": "875", "yardsPerReception": "17.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "9", "longReception": "57" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "194", "teamSlug": "ohio-state-buckeyes", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "0", "rushingYards": "6", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "teamSlug": "ohio-state-buckeyes", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "16", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "8.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "194", "teamSlug": "ohio-state-buckeyes", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "194", "teamSlug": "ohio-state-buckeyes", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "9", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "9", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "54" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2026, "team_id": "10", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "32", "receptions": "22", "receivingYards": "268", "yardsPerReception": "12.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 8.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "10", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Calvin Ridley", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3925357/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "64", "receivingTargets": "120", "receivingYards": "1,017", "yardsPerReception": "15.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "63", "receivingFirstDowns": "40", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "receptions": "17", "receivingTargets": "36", "receivingYards": "303", "yardsPerReception": "17.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "47", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "5", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "16.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "25", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "8", "rushingYards": "55", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "19", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "10", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "120", "receptions": "64", "receivingYards": "1,017", "yardsPerReception": "15.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.0588235294117645, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "10", "category": "receiving", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "36", "receptions": "17", "receivingYards": "303", "yardsPerReception": "17.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.142857142857143, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "10", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "5", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "16.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "10", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "8", "rushingYards": "55", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.47058823529411764 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "10", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "10", "category": "passing", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "10", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/10/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.16470588235294, 16.16764705882353 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -6.997058823529411, "total": 39.33235294117647, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.96876480783313, 14.438668213071363 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -9.530096594761766, "total": 38.40743302090449, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -5.293657176412232, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -5.293657176412232, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Carnell Tate" ], "included_players": [], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "home_margin": -3.997058823529411, "total": 42.33235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "home_margin": -6.5300965947617655, "total": 41.40743302090449, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -2.293657176412232, "total": 43.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -2.293657176412232, "total": 43.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "home_margin": -3.997058823529411, "total": 42.33235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "home_margin": -6.5300965947617655, "total": 41.40743302090449, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -2.293657176412232, "total": 43.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -2.293657176412232, "total": 43.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "home_margin": -3.997058823529411, "total": 42.33235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "home_margin": -6.5300965947617655, "total": 41.40743302090449, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -2.293657176412232, "total": 43.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -2.293657176412232, "total": 43.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [ "Carnell Tate" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Carnell Tate" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.16470588235294, 16.16764705882353 ], "home_margin": -6.997058823529411, "total": 39.33235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.96876480783313, 14.438668213071363 ], "home_margin": -9.530096594761766, "total": 38.40743302090449, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -5.293657176412232, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -5.293657176412232, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.16470588235294, 16.16764705882353 ], "home_margin": -6.997058823529411, "total": 39.33235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.96876480783313, 14.438668213071363 ], "home_margin": -9.530096594761766, "total": 38.40743302090449, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -5.293657176412232, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -5.293657176412232, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.16470588235294, 19.16764705882353 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.16470588235294, 16.16764705882353 ], "home_margin": -6.997058823529411, "total": 39.33235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.96876480783313, 17.438668213071363 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.96876480783313, 14.438668213071363 ], "home_margin": -9.530096594761766, "total": 38.40743302090449, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -5.293657176412232, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.78765099789916, 20.493993821486928 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.78765099789916, 17.493993821486928 ], "home_margin": -5.293657176412232, "total": 40.28164481938609, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.747039+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872982", "identity": { "id": "401872982", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3948", "fullName": "Hard Rock Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Miami Gardens", "state": "FL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "4", "away_name": "Cincinnati Bengals", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "15", "home_name": "Miami Dolphins", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "4", "team": "Cincinnati Bengals", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Ja'Marr Chase", "Dohnte Meyers" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Tee Higgins", "Mitchell Tinsley" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Colbie Young", "Andrei Iosivas" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Joe Burrow", "Joe Flacco" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Mike Gesicki", "Drew Sample", "Erick All Jr.", "Tanner Hudson", "Jack Endries" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Chase Brown", "Samaje Perine", "Tahj Brooks" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Ja'Marr Chase", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T16:29Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4362628.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Tee Higgins", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T20:27Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4239993.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Colbie Young", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T21:24Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-5092508.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Andrei Iosivas", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T20:26Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4368003.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Ja'Marr Chase", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Dohnte Meyers", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Main receiver; joint loss with Higgins overlaps passing drives.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Ja'Marr Chase", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4362628/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "127", "receivingTargets": "175", "receivingYards": "1,708", "yardsPerReception": "13.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "17", "longReception": "70", "receivingFirstDowns": "75", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "125", "receivingTargets": "185", "receivingYards": "1,412", "yardsPerReception": "11.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "64", "receivingFirstDowns": "73", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "21", "receivingTargets": "28", "receivingYards": "212", "yardsPerReception": "10.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "32", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "10.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "14", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "14", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "17", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "17", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "102" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "4", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "175", "receptions": "127", "receivingYards": "1,708", "yardsPerReception": "13.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 10.294117647058824, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "4", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "185", "receptions": "125", "receivingYards": "1,412", "yardsPerReception": "11.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 11.5625, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "4", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "28", "receptions": "21", "receivingYards": "212", "yardsPerReception": "10.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "4", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "32", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.17647058823529413 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "4", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "14", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.1875 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "4", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "4", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "4", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Dohnte Meyers", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4384852/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "16", "receivingYards": "129", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "10", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "10.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "10", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4384852", "name": "Dohnte Meyers", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4384852/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.225562+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2026, "team_id": "4", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "16", "receptions": "11", "receivingYards": "129", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "4", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "10", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.25 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "4", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 1.1676470588235297, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 1.8451434445133792, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Tee Higgins", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Mitchell Tinsley", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Main receiver; joint loss with Chase overlaps passing drives.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Tee Higgins", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4239993/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "73", "receivingTargets": "109", "receivingYards": "911", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "10", "longReception": "42", "receivingFirstDowns": "48", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "59", "receivingTargets": "98", "receivingYards": "846", "yardsPerReception": "14.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "11", "longReception": "44", "receivingFirstDowns": "41", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "25", "receivingTargets": "39", "receivingYards": "401", "yardsPerReception": "16.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "20", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "10", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "10", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "60" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "11", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "11", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "68" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "4", "category": "receiving", "games": 12.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "109", "receptions": "73", "receivingYards": "911", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 9.083333333333334, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "4", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "98", "receptions": "59", "receivingYards": "846", "yardsPerReception": "14.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.533333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "4", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "39", "receptions": "25", "receivingYards": "401", "yardsPerReception": "16.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 9.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "4", "category": "passing", "games": 12.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "4", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "4", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Mitchell Tinsley", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4690070/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "8", "receivingTargets": "24", "receivingYards": "116", "yardsPerReception": "14.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "6", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "49", "yardsPerReception": "16.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "4", "teamSlug": "cincinnati-bengals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "4", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "24", "receptions": "8", "receivingYards": "116", "yardsPerReception": "14.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.411764705882353, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "4", "category": "receiving", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "7", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "49", "yardsPerReception": "16.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "4", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "4", "category": "passing", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/4/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 1.1676470588235297, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 1.8451434445133792, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Ja'Marr Chase", "Tee Higgins" ], "included_players": [], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": -1.8323529411764703, "total": 46.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": -1.1548565554866208, "total": 48.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -3.8778118055098965, "total": 44.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -3.8778118055098965, "total": 44.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": -1.8323529411764703, "total": 46.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": -1.1548565554866208, "total": 48.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -3.8778118055098965, "total": 44.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -3.8778118055098965, "total": 44.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": -1.8323529411764703, "total": 46.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": -1.1548565554866208, "total": 48.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -3.8778118055098965, "total": 44.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -3.8778118055098965, "total": 44.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [ "Tee Higgins" ], "conditional_available": [ "Ja'Marr Chase" ], "included_players": [ "Tee Higgins" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": 1.1676470588235297, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": 1.8451434445133792, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": 1.1676470588235297, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": 1.8451434445133792, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": 1.1676470588235297, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": 1.8451434445133792, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [ "Ja'Marr Chase" ], "conditional_available": [ "Tee Higgins" ], "included_players": [ "Ja'Marr Chase" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": 1.1676470588235297, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": 1.8451434445133792, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": 1.1676470588235297, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": 1.8451434445133792, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": 1.1676470588235297, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": 1.8451434445133792, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [ "Ja'Marr Chase", "Tee Higgins" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Ja'Marr Chase", "Tee Higgins" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": 1.1676470588235297, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": 1.8451434445133792, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": 1.1676470588235297, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": 1.8451434445133792, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -0.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 17.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": 4.16764705882353, "total": 40.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": 4.845143444513379, "total": 42.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": 2.1221881944901035, "total": 38.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": 2.1221881944901035, "total": 38.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.261252+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "15", "team": "Miami Dolphins", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Malik Washington", "Kevin Coleman Jr." ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Caleb Douglas", "Jalen Tolbert" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Chris Bell", "Ryan Miller" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Malik Willis", "Kyle McCord" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Greg Dulcich", "Will Kacmarek", "Seydou Traore", "Justin Joly", "Cole Turner" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Ollie Gordon II", "Jaylen Wright", "Kaytron Allen", "Carlos Washington Jr.", "De'Von Achane" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Caleb Douglas", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T20:46Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4869645.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Justin Joly", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T02:41Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4912052.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Cole Turner", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-27T23:35Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4361438.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Jaylen Wright", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T20:51Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4682745.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "De'Von Achane", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-28T20:10Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4429160.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Caleb Douglas", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Jalen Tolbert", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Depth-chart starter with 10 targets; rookie college comparison remains missing.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Caleb Douglas", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4869645/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "10", "receivingYards": "113", "yardsPerReception": "16.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4869645", "name": "Caleb Douglas", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4869645/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.376946+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2641", "teamSlug": "texas-tech-red-raiders", "stats": { "receptions": "60", "receivingYards": "877", "yardsPerReception": "14.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "57" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2641", "teamSlug": "texas-tech-red-raiders", "stats": { "receptions": "54", "receivingYards": "846", "yardsPerReception": "15.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "61" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2641", "teamSlug": "texas-tech-red-raiders", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2641", "teamSlug": "texas-tech-red-raiders", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2026, "team_id": "15", "category": "receiving", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "10", "receptions": "7", "receivingYards": "113", "yardsPerReception": "16.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "15", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Jalen Tolbert", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4249417/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "49", "receivingTargets": "79", "receivingYards": "610", "yardsPerReception": "12.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "29", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "34", "receivingYards": "203", "yardsPerReception": "11.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "35", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "8" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "6", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "79", "receptions": "49", "receivingYards": "610", "yardsPerReception": "12.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.647058823529412, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "6", "category": "receiving", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "34", "receptions": "18", "receivingYards": "203", "yardsPerReception": "11.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.6153846153846154, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "15", "category": "receiving", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "1", "receptions": "0", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "6", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "6", "category": "passing", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "15", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.938235294117646, 19.105882352941176 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -4.83235294117647, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.692504778542997, 20.537648223056376 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -4.154856555486621, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -6.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -6.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "De'Von Achane", "position": "RB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Ollie Gordon II", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official IR September28; lead back34 current carries12 targets. Existing absence already enters current team rates; isolate extra human assumption rather than claim measured incremental injury effect.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "De'Von Achane", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429160/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "203", "rushingYards": "907", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "longRushing": "61", "rushingFirstDowns": "37", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "238", "rushingYards": "1,350", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "longRushing": "59", "rushingFirstDowns": "56", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "34", "rushingYards": "127", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "17", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "78", "receivingTargets": "87", "receivingYards": "592", "yardsPerReception": "7.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "30", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "67", "receivingTargets": "85", "receivingYards": "488", "yardsPerReception": "7.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "23", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "49", "yardsPerReception": "7.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "12", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "72" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "12", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "72" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "15", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "203", "rushingYards": "907", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 11.941176470588236 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "15", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "238", "rushingYards": "1,350", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 14.875 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "15", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "34", "rushingYards": "127", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 11.333333333333334 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "15", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "87", "receptions": "78", "receivingYards": "592", "yardsPerReception": "7.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.117647058823529, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "15", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "85", "receptions": "67", "receivingYards": "488", "yardsPerReception": "7.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.3125, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "15", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "12", "receptions": "7", "receivingYards": "49", "yardsPerReception": "7.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "15", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "15", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "15", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Ollie Gordon II", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4711533/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "70", "rushingYards": "199", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "20", "rushingFirstDowns": "21", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "29", "rushingYards": "148", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "53", "rushingFirstDowns": "7", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "9", "receivingYards": "32", "yardsPerReception": "4.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "5", "receivingYards": "14", "yardsPerReception": "2.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "15", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "70", "rushingYards": "199", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 4.117647058823529 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "15", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "29", "rushingYards": "148", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 7.25 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "15", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "9", "receptions": "7", "receivingYards": "32", "yardsPerReception": "4.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.5294117647058824, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "15", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "5", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "14", "yardsPerReception": "2.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "15", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "15", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/15/depthcharts", "https://www.miamidolphins.com/news/dolphins-make-roster-moves-x4614", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.938235294117646, 19.105882352941176 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -4.83235294117647, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.692504778542997, 20.537648223056376 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -4.154856555486621, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -6.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -6.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Caleb Douglas", "De'Von Achane" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Caleb Douglas", "De'Von Achane" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.938235294117646, 19.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": -4.83235294117647, "total": 43.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.692504778542997, 20.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": -4.154856555486621, "total": 45.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -6.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 17.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -6.8778118055098965, "total": 41.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.938235294117646, 16.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": -7.83235294117647, "total": 40.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.692504778542997, 17.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": -7.154856555486621, "total": 42.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -9.877811805509896, "total": 38.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -9.877811805509896, "total": 38.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.938235294117646, 22.105882352941176 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.938235294117646, 16.105882352941176 ], "home_margin": -7.83235294117647, "total": 40.044117647058826, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.692504778542997, 23.537648223056376 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.692504778542997, 17.537648223056376 ], "home_margin": -7.154856555486621, "total": 42.230153001599376, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -9.877811805509896, "total": 38.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.272560710139317, 20.39474890462942 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.272560710139317, 14.39474890462942 ], "home_margin": -9.877811805509896, "total": 38.66730961476874, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.844838+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872986", "identity": { "id": "401872986", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3738", "fullName": "Gillette Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Foxborough", "state": "MA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "13", "away_name": "Las Vegas Raiders", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "17", "home_name": "New England Patriots", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "13", "team": "Las Vegas Raiders", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Tre Tucker", "Dareke Young", "Dont'e Thornton Jr." ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Jalen Nailor", "Malik Benson", "Jack Bech" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Cody White", "Deven Thompkins", "Corey Rucker" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Kirk Cousins", "Fernando Mendoza", "Aidan O'Connell" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Brock Bowers", "Michael Mayer", "Ian Thomas", "Carter Runyon" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Ashton Jeanty", "Mike Washington Jr.", "Dylan Laube", "Roman Hemby", "Chris Collier" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Dont'e Thornton Jr.", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T23:15Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4432775.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Jalen Nailor", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T19:01Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4382466.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Jack Bech", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-29T22:27Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4603186.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Corey Rucker", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-06-10T20:52Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4433901.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Carter Runyon", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T17:52Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-5155825.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Ashton Jeanty", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T18:02Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4890973.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Chris Collier", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-02T23:52Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4698191.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Jalen Nailor", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Malik Benson", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Listed starting WR; 11 current targets. Multiple reserve WR absences complicate replacement routes.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Jalen Nailor", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4382466/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "28", "receivingTargets": "42", "receivingYards": "414", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "33", "receivingFirstDowns": "22", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "29", "receivingTargets": "53", "receivingYards": "444", "yardsPerReception": "15.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "62", "receivingFirstDowns": "23", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "11", "receivingYards": "52", "yardsPerReception": "10.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "16", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "-4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "3", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "13", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "42", "receptions": "28", "receivingYards": "414", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.4705882352941178, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "53", "receptions": "29", "receivingYards": "444", "yardsPerReception": "15.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.1176470588235294, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "11", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "52", "yardsPerReception": "10.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "-4", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.17647058823529413 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "13", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.11764705882352941 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Malik Benson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/5150247/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "4", "receivingYards": "6", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "6", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "-8", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-8.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "-8", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "5150247", "name": "Malik Benson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/5150247/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.385624+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "52", "teamSlug": "florida-state-seminoles", "stats": { "receptions": "25", "receivingYards": "311", "yardsPerReception": "12.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "67" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "teamSlug": "oregon-ducks", "stats": { "receptions": "43", "receivingYards": "719", "yardsPerReception": "16.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "64" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "52", "teamSlug": "florida-state-seminoles", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "teamSlug": "oregon-ducks", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "-4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "52", "teamSlug": "florida-state-seminoles", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2483", "teamSlug": "oregon-ducks", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "1", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "4", "receptions": "1", "receivingYards": "6", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "-8", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.25 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 15.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 8.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 13.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 11.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Ashton Jeanty", "position": "RB", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Mike Washington Jr.", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Lead RB: 78 carries and25 targets; questionable cannot be treated as OUT.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Ashton Jeanty", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4890973/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "266", "rushingYards": "975", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "5", "longRushing": "64", "rushingFirstDowns": "44", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "78", "rushingYards": "264", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "19", "rushingFirstDowns": "12", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "55", "receivingTargets": "73", "receivingYards": "346", "yardsPerReception": "6.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "60", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "19", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "165", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "28", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "0.0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "5", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "10", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "60" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4890973", "name": "Ashton Jeanty", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4890973/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.646313+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "68", "teamSlug": "boise-state-broncos", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "374", "rushingYards": "2,601", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "29", "longRushing": "77" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "68", "teamSlug": "boise-state-broncos", "stats": { "receptions": "23", "receivingYards": "138", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "18" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "68", "teamSlug": "boise-state-broncos", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "29", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "30", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "180" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "13", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "266", "rushingYards": "975", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 15.647058823529411 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "78", "rushingYards": "264", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 19.5 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "13", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "73", "receptions": "55", "receivingYards": "346", "yardsPerReception": "6.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.294117647058823, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "25", "receptions": "19", "receivingYards": "165", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "13", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Mike Washington Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4686658/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "24", "rushingYards": "120", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "36", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "-1", "yardsPerReception": "-1.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "-1", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "13", "teamSlug": "las-vegas-raiders", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4686658", "name": "Mike Washington Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4686658/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.259187+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "166", "teamSlug": "new-mexico-state-aggies", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "157", "rushingYards": "725", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "longRushing": "47" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "8", "teamSlug": "arkansas-razorbacks", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "167", "rushingYards": "1,070", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "longRushing": "57" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "166", "teamSlug": "new-mexico-state-aggies", "stats": { "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "74", "yardsPerReception": "8.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "25" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "8", "teamSlug": "arkansas-razorbacks", "stats": { "receptions": "28", "receivingYards": "226", "yardsPerReception": "8.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "35" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "166", "teamSlug": "new-mexico-state-aggies", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "9", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "56" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "8", "teamSlug": "arkansas-razorbacks", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "9", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "54" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "24", "rushingYards": "120", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.0 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "3", "receptions": "1", "receivingYards": "-1", "yardsPerReception": "-1.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "13", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/13/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 15.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 8.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 13.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 11.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Jalen Nailor" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Ashton Jeanty" ], "included_players": [ "Jalen Nailor" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 15.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": 8.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 13.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 11.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 15.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": 8.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 13.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 11.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 15.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": 8.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 13.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 11.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Jalen Nailor" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Ashton Jeanty" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Jalen Nailor", "Ashton Jeanty" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 15.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": 8.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 13.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 11.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 4.854929400342058, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 12.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": 11.720588235294116, "total": 37.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 10.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 14.555612302264137, "total": 35.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 14.921197462451548, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 7.854929400342058, "total": 37.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 14.921197462451548, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 7.854929400342058, "total": 37.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 12.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": 11.720588235294116, "total": 37.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 10.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 14.555612302264137, "total": 35.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 14.921197462451548, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 7.854929400342058, "total": 37.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 14.921197462451548, 22.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": 7.854929400342058, "total": 37.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.741768+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "17", "team": "New England Patriots", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Romeo Doubs", "Kyle Williams", "Jeremiah Webb" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "DeMario Douglas", "A.J. Brown" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Efton Chism III", "Mack Hollins" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Drake Maye", "Tommy DeVito", "Behren Morton" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Hunter Henry", "Eli Raridon", "Cameron Latu", "Tanner Arkin", "Julian Hill" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Rhamondre Stevenson", "TreVeyon Henderson", "Corey Kiner", "Myles Montgomery" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Jeremiah Webb", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-07-26T21:31Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4572655.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Mack Hollins", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T20:09Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-2991662.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "A.J. Brown", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-07T18:07Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4047646.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Julian Hill", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-06-01T21:13Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4365395.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Rhamondre Stevenson", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T18:46Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4569173.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Myles Montgomery", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-19T12:07Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4676889.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Mack Hollins", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "DeMario Douglas", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "20 current targets establish material receiver role; current depth already moved him to IR.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Mack Hollins", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2991662/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "31", "receivingTargets": "50", "receivingYards": "378", "yardsPerReception": "12.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "44", "receivingFirstDowns": "25", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "46", "receivingTargets": "65", "receivingYards": "550", "yardsPerReception": "12.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "54", "receivingFirstDowns": "28", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "20", "receivingYards": "209", "yardsPerReception": "13.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "2", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "50", "receptions": "31", "receivingYards": "378", "yardsPerReception": "12.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.9411764705882355, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "65", "receptions": "46", "receivingYards": "550", "yardsPerReception": "12.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.333333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "20", "receptions": "15", "receivingYards": "209", "yardsPerReception": "13.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "rushing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "4", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.06666666666666667 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "2", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "DeMario Douglas", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4427095/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "66", "receivingTargets": "87", "receivingYards": "621", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "36", "receivingFirstDowns": "31", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "31", "receivingTargets": "46", "receivingYards": "447", "yardsPerReception": "14.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "58", "receivingFirstDowns": "17", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "82", "yardsPerReception": "9.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "38", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "16", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "21", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "14", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "87", "receptions": "66", "receivingYards": "621", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.117647058823529, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "46", "receptions": "31", "receivingYards": "447", "yardsPerReception": "14.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.7058823529411766, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "17", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "82", "yardsPerReception": "9.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "17", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "16", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.17647058823529413 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "21", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.4117647058823529 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 18.75, 21.470588235294116 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 2.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 16.64836253293008, 22.203974835194217 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 5.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Rhamondre Stevenson", "position": "RB", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "TreVeyon Henderson", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Material RB committee member:44 carries,16 targets; conditional touch redistribution.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Rhamondre Stevenson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4569173/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "207", "rushingYards": "801", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "33", "rushingFirstDowns": "40", "rushingFumbles": "6", "rushingFumblesLost": "3" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "130", "rushingYards": "603", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "56", "rushingFirstDowns": "29", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "44", "rushingYards": "163", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "24", "rushingFirstDowns": "12", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "33", "receivingTargets": "41", "receivingYards": "168", "yardsPerReception": "5.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "16", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "32", "receivingTargets": "37", "receivingYards": "345", "yardsPerReception": "10.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "55", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "12", "receivingTargets": "16", "receivingYards": "90", "yardsPerReception": "7.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "17", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "19.6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "75.7" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "2", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "52" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "9", "totalTwoPointConvs": "2", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "58" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "8" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "17", "category": "rushing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "207", "rushingYards": "801", "rushingFumblesLost": "3" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 13.8 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "rushing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "130", "rushingYards": "603", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 9.285714285714286 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "44", "rushingYards": "163", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 11.0 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "41", "receptions": "33", "receivingYards": "168", "yardsPerReception": "5.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.7333333333333334, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "37", "receptions": "32", "receivingYards": "345", "yardsPerReception": "10.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 2.642857142857143, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "16", "receptions": "12", "receivingYards": "90", "yardsPerReception": "7.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 4.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "TreVeyon Henderson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4432710/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "180", "rushingYards": "911", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "9", "longRushing": "69", "rushingFirstDowns": "45", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "38", "rushingYards": "141", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "39", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "35", "receivingTargets": "42", "receivingYards": "221", "yardsPerReception": "6.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "6", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "6", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "9", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "10", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "60" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "180", "rushingYards": "911", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 10.588235294117647 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "38", "rushingYards": "141", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 12.666666666666666 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "42", "receptions": "35", "receivingYards": "221", "yardsPerReception": "6.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.4705882352941178, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "3", "receptions": "1", "receivingYards": "6", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 18.75, 21.470588235294116 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 2.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 16.64836253293008, 22.203974835194217 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 5.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "A.J. Brown", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Efton Chism III", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official IR September12, earliest return Week6; main receiver acquired offseason, former PHI splits retained. Shares passing replacement pool with Hollins.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "A.J. Brown", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4047646/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "67", "receivingTargets": "97", "receivingYards": "1,079", "yardsPerReception": "16.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "67", "receivingFirstDowns": "51", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "78", "receivingTargets": "121", "receivingYards": "1,003", "yardsPerReception": "12.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "47", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "4", "receivingYards": "26", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "21", "teamSlug": "philadelphia-eagles", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "97", "receptions": "67", "receivingYards": "1,079", "yardsPerReception": "16.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.461538461538462, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "121", "receptions": "78", "receivingYards": "1,003", "yardsPerReception": "12.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 8.066666666666666, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "4", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "26", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "21", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Efton Chism III", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4695193/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "75", "yardsPerReception": "25.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "35", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "41", "yardsPerReception": "10.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "16", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "16.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "16", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "118.8", "adjQBR": "99.4" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4695193", "name": "Efton Chism III", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4695193/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.326645+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "331", "teamSlug": "eastern-washington-eagles", "stats": { "receptions": "120", "receivingYards": "1,311", "yardsPerReception": "10.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "longReception": "67" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "331", "teamSlug": "eastern-washington-eagles", "stats": { "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "2", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "0.0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "331", "teamSlug": "eastern-washington-eagles", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "13", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "2" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "75", "yardsPerReception": "25.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.375, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "7", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "41", "yardsPerReception": "10.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.3333333333333335, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "1", "passingYards": "16", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/17/depthcharts", "https://www.patriots.com/news/analysis-patriots-place-wr-a-j-brown-on-injured-reserve-sign-dt-daquan-jones", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 18.75, 21.470588235294116 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 2.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 16.64836253293008, 22.203974835194217 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 5.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Mack Hollins", "A.J. Brown" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Rhamondre Stevenson" ], "included_players": [ "Mack Hollins", "A.J. Brown" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.75, 21.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": 2.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.64836253293008, 22.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 5.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.75, 21.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": 2.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.64836253293008, 22.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 5.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.75, 18.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": -0.279411764705884, "total": 37.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.64836253293008, 19.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 2.5556123022641373, "total": 35.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -4.145070599657942, "total": 37.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -4.145070599657942, "total": 37.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Mack Hollins", "A.J. Brown" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Rhamondre Stevenson" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Mack Hollins", "A.J. Brown", "Rhamondre Stevenson" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.75, 21.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": 2.720588235294116, "total": 40.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.64836253293008, 22.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 5.555612302264137, "total": 38.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 19.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -1.1450705996579416, "total": 40.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.75, 18.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": -0.279411764705884, "total": 37.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.64836253293008, 19.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": 2.5556123022641373, "total": 35.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -4.145070599657942, "total": 37.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 16.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -4.145070599657942, "total": 37.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 18.75, 24.470588235294116 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 18.75, 15.470588235294116 ], "home_margin": -3.279411764705884, "total": 34.220588235294116, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 16.64836253293008, 25.203974835194217 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 16.64836253293008, 16.203974835194217 ], "home_margin": -0.44438769773586273, "total": 32.852337368124296, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 13.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -7.145070599657942, "total": 34.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.92119746245155, 22.776126862793607 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 20.92119746245155, 13.776126862793607 ], "home_margin": -7.145070599657942, "total": 34.697324325245155, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.771213+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872987", "identity": { "id": "401872987", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3493", "fullName": "Caesars Superdome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New Orleans", "state": "LA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Minnesota Vikings", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "New Orleans Saints", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "16", "team": "Minnesota Vikings", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Justin Jefferson", "Tai Felton", "Odell Beckham Jr." ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Jordan Addison", "Myles Price" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Jauan Jennings", "Jeshaun Jones" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Kyler Murray", "Carson Wentz", "Max Brosmer" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "T.J. Hockenson", "Gavin Bartholomew", "Ben Yurosek", "Josh Oliver" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Aaron Jones Sr.", "DeeJay Dallas", "Demond Claiborne", "Jordan Mason" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Justin Jefferson", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T17:08Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4262921.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Jordan Addison", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T18:15Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4429205.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Ben Yurosek", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-11T01:52Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4433959.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Josh Oliver", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-30T00:26Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3921690.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Jordan Mason", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-16T18:55Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4360569.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Justin Jefferson", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Tai Felton", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Primary receiver; overlap with Addison passing-game replacement must be resolved.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Justin Jefferson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4262921/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "103", "receivingTargets": "154", "receivingYards": "1,533", "yardsPerReception": "14.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "10", "longReception": "97", "receivingFirstDowns": "62", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "84", "receivingTargets": "141", "receivingYards": "1,048", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "50", "receivingFirstDowns": "47", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "13", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "179", "yardsPerReception": "13.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "3", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "7", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "22", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "22.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "22", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "118.8", "adjQBR": "23.7" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "10", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "10", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "60" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "14" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "154", "receptions": "103", "receivingYards": "1,533", "yardsPerReception": "14.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 9.058823529411764, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "141", "receptions": "84", "receivingYards": "1,048", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 8.294117647058824, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "17", "receptions": "13", "receivingYards": "179", "yardsPerReception": "13.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.666666666666667, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.058823529411764705 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "7", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.11764705882352941 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "1", "passingYards": "22", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Tai Felton", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4565185/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "25", "yardsPerReception": "8.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "10", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "14", "yardsPerReception": "14.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4565185", "name": "Tai Felton", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4565185/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.261704+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "120", "teamSlug": "maryland-terrapins", "stats": { "receptions": "96", "receivingYards": "1,124", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "9", "longReception": "75" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "120", "teamSlug": "maryland-terrapins", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "23", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "11.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "19" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "120", "teamSlug": "maryland-terrapins", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "9", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "9", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "54" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "25", "yardsPerReception": "8.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.17647058823529413, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "3", "receptions": "1", "receivingYards": "14", "yardsPerReception": "14.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.0470588235294116, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Jordan Addison", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Myles Price", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Main receiver; overlap with Jefferson. Jauan Jennings and Hockenson are alternatives.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Jordan Addison", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429205/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "63", "receivingTargets": "99", "receivingYards": "875", "yardsPerReception": "13.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "9", "longReception": "69", "receivingFirstDowns": "39", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "42", "receivingTargets": "79", "receivingYards": "610", "yardsPerReception": "14.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "81", "receivingFirstDowns": "26", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "21", "receivingYards": "163", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "20", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "81", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "40.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "65", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "-1", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "-1", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "9", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "10", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "60" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "99", "receptions": "63", "receivingYards": "875", "yardsPerReception": "13.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.6, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "79", "receptions": "42", "receivingYards": "610", "yardsPerReception": "14.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.642857142857143, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "21", "receptions": "11", "receivingYards": "163", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "20", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.2 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "81", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.14285714285714285 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "-1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.25 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Myles Price", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4430656/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "4", "receivingYards": "6", "yardsPerReception": "3.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "5", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "1", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4430656", "name": "Myles Price", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4430656/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.250314+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "84", "teamSlug": "indiana-hoosiers", "stats": { "receptions": "38", "receivingYards": "466", "yardsPerReception": "12.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "41" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "84", "teamSlug": "indiana-hoosiers", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "63", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "25" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "84", "teamSlug": "indiana-hoosiers", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "4", "receptions": "2", "receivingYards": "6", "yardsPerReception": "3.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.25 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.0470588235294116, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Jordan Mason", "position": "RB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "DeeJay Dallas", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official team transaction September16 IR and Dallas signing; ongoing prior absence already partly present in current team-rate input.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Jordan Mason", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4360569/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "rushingAttempts": "153", "rushingYards": "789", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "38", "rushingFirstDowns": "37", "rushingFumbles": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "159", "rushingYards": "758", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "longRushing": "24", "rushingFirstDowns": "45", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "59", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "28", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "91", "yardsPerReception": "8.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "24", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "16", "receivingYards": "51", "yardsPerReception": "3.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "79.6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "rushing", "games": 12.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "153", "rushingYards": "789", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 12.75 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "159", "rushingYards": "758", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 9.9375 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "59", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 15.0 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 12.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "14", "receptions": "11", "receivingYards": "91", "yardsPerReception": "8.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.1666666666666667, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "16", "receptions": "14", "receivingYards": "51", "yardsPerReception": "3.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 12.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "DeeJay Dallas", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4240631/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "9", "rushingYards": "49", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "22", "rushingFirstDowns": "4", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "29", "teamSlug": "carolina-panthers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "0", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "0", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "21", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "10.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "17", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "21", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "17", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "10", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "11", "yardsPerReception": "3.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "5", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "23", "yardsPerReception": "7.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "12", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "41.7" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "29", "teamSlug": "carolina-panthers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "22", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "9", "rushingYards": "49", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.5294117647058824 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "29", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "21", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.6666666666666666 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": null, "category": "rushing", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "21", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.5 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "10", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.75 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "22", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "11", "yardsPerReception": "3.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.17647058823529413, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "1", "receptions": "0", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.3333333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "23", "yardsPerReception": "7.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "22", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "29", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": null, "category": "passing", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "16", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/16/depthcharts", "https://www.vikings.com/team/app-links/transactions", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.0470588235294116, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -1.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Jordan Mason" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Justin Jefferson", "Jordan Addison" ], "included_players": [ "Jordan Mason" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 0.0470588235294116, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -1.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 0.0470588235294116, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -1.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 0.0470588235294116, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -1.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Jordan Mason" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Jordan Addison" ], "conditional_available": [ "Justin Jefferson" ], "included_players": [ "Jordan Mason", "Jordan Addison" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 0.0470588235294116, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -1.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 3.0470588235294116, "total": 36.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": 1.687075080121808, "total": 34.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 2.566729575970708, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 2.566729575970708, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 3.0470588235294116, "total": 36.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": 1.687075080121808, "total": 34.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 2.566729575970708, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 2.566729575970708, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Jordan Mason" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Justin Jefferson" ], "conditional_available": [ "Jordan Addison" ], "included_players": [ "Jordan Mason", "Justin Jefferson" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 0.0470588235294116, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -1.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 3.0470588235294116, "total": 36.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": 1.687075080121808, "total": 34.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 2.566729575970708, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 2.566729575970708, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 3.0470588235294116, "total": 36.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": 1.687075080121808, "total": 34.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 2.566729575970708, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 2.566729575970708, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Jordan Mason" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Justin Jefferson", "Jordan Addison" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Jordan Mason", "Justin Jefferson", "Jordan Addison" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 0.0470588235294116, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -1.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -0.43327042402929195, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 3.0470588235294116, "total": 36.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 16.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": 1.687075080121808, "total": 34.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 2.566729575970708, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 2.566729575970708, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 13.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": 6.047058823529412, "total": 33.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 13.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": 4.687075080121808, "total": 31.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 15.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 5.566729575970708, "total": 36.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 15.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": 5.566729575970708, "total": 36.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.771213+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "18", "team": "New Orleans Saints", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Chris Olave", "Barion Brown", "Mason Tipton" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Devaughn Vele", "Cedric Tillman" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Bryce Lance", "Jordyn Tyson" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Tyler Shough", "Spencer Rattler", "Zach Wilson" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Juwan Johnson", "Noah Fant", "Oscar Delp", "Treyton Welch", "Moliki Matavao" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Alvin Kamara", "Kendre Miller", "CJ Donaldson", "Travis Etienne Jr.", "Ty Chandler" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Barion Brown", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T22:25Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4698597.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Mason Tipton", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T18:40Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4573697.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Jordyn Tyson", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-05T13:36Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4880281.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Moliki Matavao", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-25T22:41Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4432731.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Alvin Kamara", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T18:13Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3054850.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Travis Etienne Jr.", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-01T20:44Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4239996.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Ty Chandler", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-25T22:39Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4242431.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Alvin Kamara", "position": "RB", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Kendre Miller", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "25 carries and14 targets; conditional RB redistribution.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Alvin Kamara", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3054850/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "228", "rushingYards": "950", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "longRushing": "24", "rushingFirstDowns": "52", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "rushingAttempts": "131", "rushingYards": "471", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "21", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "25", "rushingYards": "74", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "11", "rushingFirstDowns": "6", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "68", "receivingTargets": "89", "receivingYards": "543", "yardsPerReception": "8.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "57", "receivingFirstDowns": "18", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "33", "receivingTargets": "39", "receivingYards": "186", "yardsPerReception": "5.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "47", "yardsPerReception": "4.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "17", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "0.1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "5.5" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "228", "rushingYards": "950", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 16.285714285714285 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "131", "rushingYards": "471", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 11.909090909090908 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "25", "rushingYards": "74", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 8.333333333333334 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "89", "receptions": "68", "receivingYards": "543", "yardsPerReception": "8.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.357142857142857, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "39", "receptions": "33", "receivingYards": "186", "yardsPerReception": "5.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 3.5454545454545454, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "14", "receptions": "11", "receivingYards": "47", "yardsPerReception": "4.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.666666666666667, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Kendre Miller", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4599739/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "rushingAttempts": "39", "rushingYards": "148", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "17", "rushingFirstDowns": "11", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "rushingAttempts": "47", "rushingYards": "193", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "9", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "19", "rushingYards": "53", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "4", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "8", "receivingYards": "33", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "16", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "5", "receivingYards": "30", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "11", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "15", "yardsPerReception": "3.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "7", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "39", "rushingYards": "148", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.5 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "47", "rushingYards": "193", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.714285714285714 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "19", "rushingYards": "53", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.333333333333333 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "8", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "33", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.3333333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "5", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "30", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.7142857142857143, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "6", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "15", "yardsPerReception": "3.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.779411764705884, 16.826470588235296 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -5.952941176470588, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.345309493882276, 15.032384574004084 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -7.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Travis Etienne Jr.", "position": "RB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Kendre Miller", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official IR October1;30 carries13 targets through3 games. Kamara/Miller committee redistribution; if Kamara also unavailable both losses share backfield drives.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Travis Etienne Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4239996/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "150", "rushingYards": "558", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "22", "rushingFirstDowns": "31", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "260", "rushingYards": "1,107", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "71", "rushingFirstDowns": "48", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "30", "rushingYards": "128", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "7", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "52", "receivingYards": "254", "yardsPerReception": "6.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "36", "receivingTargets": "52", "receivingYards": "292", "yardsPerReception": "8.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "13", "receivingYards": "51", "yardsPerReception": "4.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "16", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "23.9" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "28.7" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "13", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "78" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "2" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "30", "category": "rushing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "150", "rushingYards": "558", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 10.0 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "260", "rushingYards": "1,107", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 15.294117647058824 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "30", "rushingYards": "128", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 10.0 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "30", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "52", "receptions": "39", "receivingYards": "254", "yardsPerReception": "6.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.466666666666667, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "52", "receptions": "36", "receivingYards": "292", "yardsPerReception": "8.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.0588235294117645, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "13", "receptions": "11", "receivingYards": "51", "yardsPerReception": "4.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.333333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "30", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Kendre Miller", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4599739/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "rushingAttempts": "39", "rushingYards": "148", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "17", "rushingFirstDowns": "11", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "rushingAttempts": "47", "rushingYards": "193", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.1", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "9", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "19", "rushingYards": "53", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "4", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "8", "receivingYards": "33", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "16", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "5", "receivingYards": "30", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "11", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "15", "yardsPerReception": "3.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "7", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "39", "rushingYards": "148", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.5 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "47", "rushingYards": "193", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.714285714285714 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "19", "rushingYards": "53", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.333333333333333 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "8", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "33", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.3333333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "5", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "30", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.7142857142857143, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "6", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "15", "yardsPerReception": "3.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/18/depthcharts", "https://www.neworleanssaints.com/news/ulysses-bentley-iv-david-ojabo-saints-roster-moves-transaction-alert-october-1-2026", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.779411764705884, 16.826470588235296 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -5.952941176470588, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.345309493882276, 15.032384574004084 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -7.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Travis Etienne Jr." ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Alvin Kamara" ], "included_players": [ "Travis Etienne Jr." ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.779411764705884, 16.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": -5.952941176470588, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.345309493882276, 15.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -7.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.779411764705884, 16.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": -5.952941176470588, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.345309493882276, 15.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -7.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.779411764705884, 16.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": -5.952941176470588, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.345309493882276, 15.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -7.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Travis Etienne Jr." ], "conditional_absent": [ "Alvin Kamara" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Travis Etienne Jr.", "Alvin Kamara" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.779411764705884, 16.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": -5.952941176470588, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.345309493882276, 15.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -7.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.779411764705884, 16.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": -5.952941176470588, "total": 39.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.345309493882276, 15.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -7.312924919878192, "total": 37.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -6.433270424029292, "total": 42.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 22.779411764705884, 13.826470588235296 ], "home_margin": -8.952941176470588, "total": 36.60588235294118, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 22.345309493882276, 12.032384574004084 ], "home_margin": -10.312924919878192, "total": 34.37769406788636, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -9.433270424029292, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.268382352941174, 14.835111928911882 ], "home_margin": -9.433270424029292, "total": 39.10349428185306, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.752124+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872983", "identity": { "id": "401872983", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3839", "fullName": "MetLife Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "East Rutherford", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Browns", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "20", "home_name": "New York Jets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Browns", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Denzel Boston", "Isaiah Bond" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/5/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "KC Concepcion", "Tylan Wallace" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/5/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Jerry Jeudy", "Malachi Corley" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/5/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Deshaun Watson", "Shedeur Sanders", "Taylen Green", "Dillon Gabriel" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/5/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Harold Fannin Jr.", "Blake Whiteheart", "Carsen Ryan", "Joe Royer" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/5/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Quinshon Judkins", "Raheim Sanders", "Jaleel McLaughlin", "Dylan Sampson" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/5/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Tylan Wallace", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T00:35Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4241424.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Dillon Gabriel", "position": "QB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T00:37Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4427238.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Carsen Ryan", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T00:29Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4685540.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Joe Royer", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-30T21:32Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4565859.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Dylan Sampson", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-15T19:33Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-5081397.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "home_margin": -0.017647058823531125, "total": 42.58235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "home_margin": 0.6066631175102728, "total": 41.68433441989263, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": 0.668021482082299, "total": 43.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": 0.668021482082299, "total": 43.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "home_margin": -0.017647058823531125, "total": 42.58235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "home_margin": 0.6066631175102728, "total": 41.68433441989263, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": 0.668021482082299, "total": 43.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": 0.668021482082299, "total": 43.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "home_margin": -0.017647058823531125, "total": 42.58235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "home_margin": 0.6066631175102728, "total": 41.68433441989263, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": 0.668021482082299, "total": 43.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": 0.668021482082299, "total": 43.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.261252+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "20", "team": "New York Jets", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Garrett Wilson", "Malik McClain", "Arian Smith" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Adonai Mitchell", "Tim Patrick" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Isaiah Williams", "Omar Cooper Jr." ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Geno Smith", "Cade Klubnik" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Kenyon Sadiq", "Mason Taylor", "Jeremy Ruckert", "Jelani Woods", "Andrew Beck" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Breece Hall", "Braelon Allen", "Isaiah Davis", "Kene Nwangwu", "Chip Trayanum" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Arian Smith", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-23T21:53Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4429105.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Adonai Mitchell", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T15:09Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4597500.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Omar Cooper Jr.", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-19T16:24Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4723820.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Breece Hall", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T15:05Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4427366.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Chip Trayanum", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T18:44Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4430893.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Breece Hall", "position": "RB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Braelon Allen", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Lead role51 carries10 targets; official team OUT.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Breece Hall", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4427366/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "209", "rushingYards": "876", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "5", "longRushing": "42", "rushingFirstDowns": "40", "rushingFumbles": "5", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "243", "rushingYards": "1,065", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "59", "rushingFirstDowns": "57", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "51", "rushingYards": "163", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "14", "rushingFirstDowns": "13", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "57", "receivingTargets": "76", "receivingYards": "483", "yardsPerReception": "8.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "57", "receivingFirstDowns": "15", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "36", "receivingTargets": "48", "receivingYards": "350", "yardsPerReception": "9.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "42", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "10", "receivingYards": "102", "yardsPerReception": "10.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "43", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "54.7" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "4", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "4.0", "passingTouchdowns": "1", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "4", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "122.9", "adjQBR": "100.0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "5", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "2", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "52" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "1", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "20", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "209", "rushingYards": "876", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 13.0625 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "20", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "243", "rushingYards": "1,065", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 15.1875 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "20", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "51", "rushingYards": "163", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 17.0 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "20", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "76", "receptions": "57", "receivingYards": "483", "yardsPerReception": "8.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 4.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "20", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "48", "receptions": "36", "receivingYards": "350", "yardsPerReception": "9.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "20", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "10", "receptions": "10", "receivingYards": "102", "yardsPerReception": "10.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.3333333333333335, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "20", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "20", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "1", "passingYards": "4", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "20", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Braelon Allen", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4685247/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "92", "rushingYards": "334", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "20", "rushingFirstDowns": "22", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "18", "rushingYards": "76", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "4", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "33", "rushingYards": "120", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "10", "rushingFirstDowns": "8", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "19", "receivingTargets": "27", "receivingYards": "148", "yardsPerReception": "7.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "15", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "17", "yardsPerReception": "8.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "12", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "19", "yardsPerReception": "3.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "13.9" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "20", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "92", "rushingYards": "334", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 5.411764705882353 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "20", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "18", "rushingYards": "76", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 4.5 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "20", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "33", "rushingYards": "120", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 8.25 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "20", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "27", "receptions": "19", "receivingYards": "148", "yardsPerReception": "7.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.588235294117647, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "20", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "3", "receptions": "2", "receivingYards": "17", "yardsPerReception": "8.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "20", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "7", "receptions": "6", "receivingYards": "19", "yardsPerReception": "3.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "20", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "20", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "20", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.3, 18.28235294117647 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -3.017647058823531, "total": 39.58235294117647, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.538835651191178, 18.14549876870145 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.393336882489727, "total": 38.68433441989263, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.331978517917701, "total": 40.957083982082295, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.331978517917701, "total": 40.957083982082295, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Adonai Mitchell", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Tim Patrick", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Main WR14 current targets absent. Tim Patrick QUESTIONABLE: conditional pool Patrick if available, Reynolds/Metchie if Patrick unavailable. The API omission is superseded by official weekly report; no claim Patrick is cleared. Shared passing opportunities receive one joint pathway assumption.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Adonai Mitchell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4597500/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "23", "receivingTargets": "55", "receivingYards": "312", "yardsPerReception": "13.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "36", "receivingFirstDowns": "16", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "16", "receivingYards": "152", "yardsPerReception": "16.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "75", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "receptions": "24", "receivingTargets": "58", "receivingYards": "301", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "52", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "33", "receivingTargets": "74", "receivingYards": "453", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "75", "receivingFirstDowns": "15", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "123", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "40", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "6", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "10", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "-4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "-4", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "24", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "24.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "24", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "118.8", "adjQBR": "70.2" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "20", "teamSlug": "new-york-jets", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "11", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "55", "receptions": "23", "receivingYards": "312", "yardsPerReception": "13.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.235294117647059, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "11", "category": "receiving", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "16", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "152", "yardsPerReception": "16.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 2.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "20", "category": "receiving", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "58", "receptions": "24", "receivingYards": "301", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": null, "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "74", "receptions": "33", "receivingYards": "453", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 4.625, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "20", "category": "receiving", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "14", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "123", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "11", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "6", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.23529411764705882 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "20", "category": "rushing", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "-4", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.125 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "11", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "1", "passingYards": "24", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "11", "category": "passing", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "20", "category": "passing", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": null, "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "20", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Tim Patrick", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3134353/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "8", "teamSlug": "detroit-lions", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "33", "receivingTargets": "44", "receivingYards": "394", "yardsPerReception": "11.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "42", "receivingFirstDowns": "20", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "24", "receivingYards": "187", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "8", "teamSlug": "detroit-lions", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "8", "teamSlug": "detroit-lions", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "20" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "8", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "44", "receptions": "33", "receivingYards": "394", "yardsPerReception": "11.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "24", "receptions": "15", "receivingYards": "187", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "8", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/20/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.3, 18.28235294117647 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -3.017647058823531, "total": 39.58235294117647, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.538835651191178, 18.14549876870145 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.393336882489727, "total": 38.68433441989263, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.331978517917701, "total": 40.957083982082295, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.331978517917701, "total": 40.957083982082295, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Breece Hall", "Adonai Mitchell" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Breece Hall", "Adonai Mitchell" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.3, 18.28235294117647 ], "home_margin": -3.017647058823531, "total": 39.58235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.538835651191178, 18.14549876870145 ], "home_margin": -2.393336882489727, "total": 38.68433441989263, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": -2.331978517917701, "total": 40.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 19.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": -2.331978517917701, "total": 40.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.3, 15.28235294117647 ], "home_margin": -6.017647058823531, "total": 36.58235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 20.538835651191178, 15.14549876870145 ], "home_margin": -5.393336882489727, "total": 35.68433441989263, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": -5.331978517917701, "total": 37.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": -5.331978517917701, "total": 37.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.3, 21.28235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.3, 15.28235294117647 ], "home_margin": -6.017647058823531, "total": 36.58235294117647, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.538835651191178, 21.14549876870145 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 20.538835651191178, 15.14549876870145 ], "home_margin": -5.393336882489727, "total": 35.68433441989263, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": -5.331978517917701, "total": 37.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.64453125, 22.3125527320823 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.64453125, 16.3125527320823 ], "home_margin": -5.331978517917701, "total": 37.957083982082295, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.961272+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872985", "identity": { "id": "401872985", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3752", "fullName": "Acrisure Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "11", "away_name": "Indianapolis Colts", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "23", "home_name": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "11", "team": "Indianapolis Colts", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Josh Downs", "Ashton Dulin", "Anthony Gould", "D.J. Montgomery" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Keenan Allen", "Deion Burks", "Nick Westbrook-Ikhine" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Laquon Treadwell", "Darius Slayton", "Alec Pierce" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Daniel Jones", "Anthony Richardson Sr.", "Riley Leonard" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Tyler Warren", "Mo Alie-Cox", "Drew Ogletree", "Will Mallory", "Carson Towt" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jonathan Taylor", "Seth McGowan", "DJ Giddens" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Ashton Dulin", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T23:53Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4061956.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "D.J. Montgomery", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T17:16Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4249030.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Keenan Allen", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T20:15Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-15818.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Darius Slayton", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T15:55Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3916945.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Alec Pierce", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-28T18:38Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4360078.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Will Mallory", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T23:56Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4362523.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Carson Towt", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-08T20:42Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4702120.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Keenan Allen", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Deion Burks", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Main receiver19 targets; other receiver injuries raise route redistribution uncertainty.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Keenan Allen", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/15818/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "70", "receivingTargets": "121", "receivingYards": "744", "yardsPerReception": "10.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "43", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "81", "receivingTargets": "122", "receivingYards": "777", "yardsPerReception": "9.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "31", "receivingFirstDowns": "49", "receivingFumbles": "2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "13", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "100", "yardsPerReception": "7.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "1", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "0.0", "adjQBR": "0.0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "3", "teamSlug": "chicago-bears", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "3", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "121", "receptions": "70", "receivingYards": "744", "yardsPerReception": "10.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 8.066666666666666, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "122", "receptions": "81", "receivingYards": "777", "yardsPerReception": "9.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.176470588235294, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "11", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "19", "receptions": "13", "receivingYards": "100", "yardsPerReception": "7.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.333333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "3", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "1", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "11", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Deion Burks", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4683151/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "2", "receivingYards": "6", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "6", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "14", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "10", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4683151", "name": "Deion Burks", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4683151/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.267117+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "201", "teamSlug": "oklahoma-sooners", "stats": { "receptions": "31", "receivingYards": "245", "yardsPerReception": "7.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "20" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "201", "teamSlug": "oklahoma-sooners", "stats": { "receptions": "57", "receivingYards": "620", "yardsPerReception": "10.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "45" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "201", "teamSlug": "oklahoma-sooners", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "5", "rushingYards": "32", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "11" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "201", "teamSlug": "oklahoma-sooners", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "6", "rushingYards": "-1", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-0.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "14" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "201", "teamSlug": "oklahoma-sooners", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "201", "teamSlug": "oklahoma-sooners", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2026, "team_id": "11", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "2", "receptions": "1", "receivingYards": "6", "yardsPerReception": "6.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "11", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "14", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.5 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "11", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.323529411764703, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.340289104585402, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Alec Pierce", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Laquon Treadwell", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official IR September26; deep receiving role moves to Treadwell/Gould/Westbrook-Ikhine after Slayton also ruled out.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Alec Pierce", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4360078/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "37", "receivingTargets": "69", "receivingYards": "824", "yardsPerReception": "22.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "65", "receivingFirstDowns": "32", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "47", "receivingTargets": "84", "receivingYards": "1,003", "yardsPerReception": "21.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "66", "receivingFirstDowns": "41", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "72", "yardsPerReception": "14.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "11", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "69", "receptions": "37", "receivingYards": "824", "yardsPerReception": "22.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.3125, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "11", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "84", "receptions": "47", "receivingYards": "1,003", "yardsPerReception": "21.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.6, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "11", "category": "receiving", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "7", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "72", "yardsPerReception": "14.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "11", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "11", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "11", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Laquon Treadwell", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3051889/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "123", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2026, "team_id": "11", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "12", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "123", "yardsPerReception": "13.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "11", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/11/depthcharts", "https://www.colts.com/news/colts-sign-wr-anthony-gould-to-53-man-roster-from-practice-squad-place-wr-alec-pierce-on-injured-reserve-elevate-wr-nick-westbrook-ikhine-to-active-roster-from-practice-squad", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.323529411764703, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.340289104585402, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Alec Pierce" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Keenan Allen" ], "included_players": [ "Alec Pierce" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": 3.323529411764703, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": 3.340289104585402, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": 3.323529411764703, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": 3.340289104585402, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": 3.323529411764703, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": 3.340289104585402, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Alec Pierce" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Keenan Allen" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Alec Pierce", "Keenan Allen" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": 3.323529411764703, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": 3.340289104585402, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": 3.323529411764703, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": 3.340289104585402, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 3.4310187220268524, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 17.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": 6.323529411764703, "total": 41.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": 6.340289104585402, "total": 42.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 17.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 6.431018722026852, "total": 41.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 17.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": 6.431018722026852, "total": 41.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.770694+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "23", "team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "DK Metcalf", "Ben Skowronek", "Michael Pittman Jr." ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Roman Wilson", "Kaden Wetjen", "Cole Burgess" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Germie Bernard", "Brandon Smith" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Aaron Rodgers", "Mason Rudolph", "Will Howard", "Drew Allar" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Darnell Washington", "Pat Freiermuth", "Robert Tonyan" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jaylen Warren", "Rico Dowdle", "Travis Homer", "Eli Heidenreich", "Lew Nichols" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Michael Pittman Jr.", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T19:52Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4035687.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Cole Burgess", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-19T12:07Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-5192448.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Rico Dowdle", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T20:14Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4038815.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Michael Pittman Jr.", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Roman Wilson", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "12 current targets and111 targets each prior season; DK/Germie Bernard also absorb work. Current team split separate from prior Colts.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Michael Pittman Jr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4035687/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "69", "receivingTargets": "111", "receivingYards": "808", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "33", "receivingFirstDowns": "35", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "80", "receivingTargets": "111", "receivingYards": "784", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "27", "receivingFirstDowns": "47", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "89", "yardsPerReception": "12.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "28", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "11", "teamSlug": "indianapolis-colts", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "44" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "11", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "111", "receptions": "69", "receivingYards": "808", "yardsPerReception": "11.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 6.9375, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "11", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "111", "receptions": "80", "receivingYards": "784", "yardsPerReception": "9.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.529411764705882, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "23", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "12", "receptions": "7", "receivingYards": "89", "yardsPerReception": "12.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "11", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "11", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "23", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Roman Wilson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4431492/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "12", "receivingTargets": "20", "receivingYards": "166", "yardsPerReception": "13.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "24", "receivingYards": "188", "yardsPerReception": "13.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "49", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "23", "category": "receiving", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "20", "receptions": "12", "receivingYards": "166", "yardsPerReception": "13.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 1.5384615384615385, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "23", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "24", "receptions": "14", "receivingYards": "188", "yardsPerReception": "13.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "23", "category": "passing", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "23", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.75294117647059, 21.076470588235292 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.676470588235297, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.197472992568912, 21.537762097154314 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.659710895414598, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Rico Dowdle", "position": "RB", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Jaylen Warren", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Material committee role15 carries7 targets; potential workload redistribution.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Rico Dowdle", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4038815/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "235", "rushingYards": "1,079", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "27", "rushingFirstDowns": "53", "rushingFumbles": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "29", "teamSlug": "carolina-panthers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "236", "rushingYards": "1,076", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "longRushing": "53", "rushingFirstDowns": "51", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "37", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "249", "yardsPerReception": "6.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "22", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "29", "teamSlug": "carolina-panthers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "39", "receivingTargets": "50", "receivingYards": "297", "yardsPerReception": "7.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "36", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "28", "yardsPerReception": "7.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "29", "teamSlug": "carolina-panthers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "3.2" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "29", "teamSlug": "carolina-panthers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "6", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "235", "rushingYards": "1,079", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 14.6875 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "29", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "236", "rushingYards": "1,076", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 13.882352941176471 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "23", "category": "rushing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "15", "rushingYards": "37", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 7.5 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "6", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "49", "receptions": "39", "receivingYards": "249", "yardsPerReception": "6.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.0625, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "29", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "50", "receptions": "39", "receivingYards": "297", "yardsPerReception": "7.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.9411764705882355, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "23", "category": "receiving", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "7", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "28", "yardsPerReception": "7.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "6", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "29", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "23", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Jaylen Warren", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4569987/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "120", "rushingYards": "511", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "22", "rushingFirstDowns": "28", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "211", "rushingYards": "958", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "longRushing": "45", "rushingFirstDowns": "52", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "55", "rushingYards": "309", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "35", "rushingFirstDowns": "16", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "38", "receivingTargets": "47", "receivingYards": "310", "yardsPerReception": "8.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "16", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "40", "receivingTargets": "45", "receivingYards": "333", "yardsPerReception": "8.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "65", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "13", "receivingTargets": "19", "receivingYards": "143", "yardsPerReception": "11.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "6", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "23", "category": "rushing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "120", "rushingYards": "511", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 8.0 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "23", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "211", "rushingYards": "958", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 13.1875 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "23", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "55", "rushingYards": "309", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 13.75 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "23", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "47", "receptions": "38", "receivingYards": "310", "yardsPerReception": "8.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.1333333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "23", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "45", "receptions": "40", "receivingYards": "333", "yardsPerReception": "8.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.8125, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "23", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "19", "receptions": "13", "receivingYards": "143", "yardsPerReception": "11.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 4.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "23", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "23", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "23", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/23/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.75294117647059, 21.076470588235292 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.676470588235297, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.197472992568912, 21.537762097154314 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.659710895414598, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Michael Pittman Jr." ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Rico Dowdle" ], "included_players": [ "Michael Pittman Jr." ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.75294117647059, 21.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": -2.676470588235297, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.197472992568912, 21.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": -2.659710895414598, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.75294117647059, 21.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": -2.676470588235297, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.197472992568912, 21.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": -2.659710895414598, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.75294117647059, 21.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": -2.676470588235297, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.197472992568912, 21.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": -2.659710895414598, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Michael Pittman Jr." ], "conditional_absent": [ "Rico Dowdle" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Michael Pittman Jr.", "Rico Dowdle" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.75294117647059, 21.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": -2.676470588235297, "total": 44.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.197472992568912, 21.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": -2.659710895414598, "total": 45.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -2.5689812779731476, "total": 44.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.75294117647059, 18.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": -5.676470588235297, "total": 41.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.197472992568912, 18.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": -5.659710895414598, "total": 42.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -5.568981277973148, "total": 41.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -5.568981277973148, "total": 41.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.75294117647059, 18.076470588235292 ], "home_margin": -5.676470588235297, "total": 41.82941176470588, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.197472992568912, 18.537762097154314 ], "home_margin": -5.659710895414598, "total": 42.735235089723226, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -5.568981277973148, "total": 41.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.72472093456948, 18.15573965659633 ], "home_margin": -5.568981277973148, "total": 41.880460591165814, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.013324+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872988", "identity": { "id": "401872988", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3719", "fullName": "Northwest Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Landover", "state": "MD", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "New York Giants", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Washington Commanders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "19", "team": "New York Giants", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Malik Nabers", "Charlie Jones", "Braxton Berrios" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/19/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Malachi Fields", "Dalen Cambre", "Gunner Olszewski" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/19/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Darnell Mooney", "Calvin Austin III" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/19/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Jameis Winston", "J.J. McCarthy", "Jake Haener", "Jaxson Dart" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/19/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Isaiah Likely", "Theo Johnson", "Chris Manhertz", "Thomas Fidone II" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/19/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Cam Skattebo", "Najee Harris", "Tyrone Tracy Jr.", "Devin Singletary" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/19/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Braxton Berrios", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-07T23:25Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3123075.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Gunner Olszewski", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-06-02T00:10Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4424106.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Calvin Austin III", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-27T22:48Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4243389.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Jaxson Dart", "position": "QB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-30T20:35Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4689114.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Jaxson Dart", "position": "QB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Jameis Winston", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official Giants IR September24; Winston current starter. McCarthy acquisition is separate trade scenario, not second injury deduction.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Jaxson Dart", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4689114/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "216", "passingAttempts": "339", "completionPct": "63.7", "passingYards": "2,272", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.7", "passingTouchdowns": "15", "interceptions": "5", "longPassing": "44", "sacks": "35", "QBRating": "91.7", "adjQBR": "57.5" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "26", "passingAttempts": "34", "completionPct": "76.5", "passingYards": "250", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.4", "passingTouchdowns": "3", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "19", "sacks": "2", "QBRating": "125.9", "adjQBR": "70.7" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "86", "rushingYards": "487", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "9", "longRushing": "29", "rushingFirstDowns": "38", "rushingFumbles": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "rushingAttempts": "11", "rushingYards": "54", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "22", "rushingFirstDowns": "4", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "15", "rushingTouchdowns": "9", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "9", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "54" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "passingTouchdowns": "3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "19", "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "339", "passingYards": "2,272", "interceptions": "5" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "19", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "34", "passingYards": "250", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "19", "category": "rushing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "86", "rushingYards": "487", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.142857142857143 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "19", "category": "rushing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "11", "rushingYards": "54", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 5.5 } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Jameis Winston", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2969939/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "5", "teamSlug": "cleveland-browns", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "181", "passingAttempts": "296", "completionPct": "61.1", "passingYards": "2,121", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.2", "passingTouchdowns": "13", "interceptions": "12", "longPassing": "89", "sacks": "24", "QBRating": "80.6", "adjQBR": "52.2" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "37", "passingAttempts": "66", "completionPct": "56.1", "passingYards": "567", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.6", "passingTouchdowns": "2", "interceptions": "2", "longPassing": "42", "sacks": "3", "QBRating": "82.1", "adjQBR": "68.5" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "43", "passingAttempts": "78", "completionPct": "55.1", "passingYards": "479", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.1", "passingTouchdowns": "3", "interceptions": "3", "longPassing": "40", "sacks": "9", "QBRating": "70.4", "adjQBR": "33.8" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "5", "teamSlug": "cleveland-browns", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "rushingAttempts": "25", "rushingYards": "83", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "13", "rushingFirstDowns": "17", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "23", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "11", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "15", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.8", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "33", "yardsPerReception": "33.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "33", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "5", "teamSlug": "cleveland-browns", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "passingTouchdowns": "13", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "2", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "5", "category": "passing", "games": 12.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "296", "passingYards": "2,121", "interceptions": "12" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "19", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "66", "passingYards": "567", "interceptions": "2" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "19", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "78", "passingYards": "479", "interceptions": "3" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "5", "category": "rushing", "games": 12.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "25", "rushingYards": "83", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 2.0833333333333335 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "19", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "23", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "19", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "15", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "19", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "1", "receptions": "1", "receivingYards": "33", "yardsPerReception": "33.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.3333333333333333, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/19/depthcharts", "https://www.giants.com/team/transactions/", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 1.9970588235294144, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 5.091294115508845, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 1.3999378344583704, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 1.3999378344583704, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Jaxson Dart" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Jaxson Dart" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "home_margin": 1.9970588235294144, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "home_margin": 5.091294115508845, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": 1.3999378344583704, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": 1.3999378344583704, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "home_margin": 1.9970588235294144, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "home_margin": 5.091294115508845, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": 1.3999378344583704, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": 1.3999378344583704, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "home_margin": 1.9970588235294144, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "home_margin": 5.091294115508845, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": 1.3999378344583704, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": 1.3999378344583704, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.961272+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "28", "team": "Washington Commanders", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Terry McLaurin", "Treylon Burks", "Van Jefferson" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Stefon Diggs", "Dyami Brown", "Jaylin Lane" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Antonio Williams", "Luke McCaffrey" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Jayden Daniels", "Marcus Mariota", "Athan Kaliakmanis" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Chig Okonkwo", "Ben Sinnott", "John Bates", "Colson Yankoff" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jacory Croskey-Merritt", "Rachaad White", "Austin Ekeler", "Jeremy McNichols" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Terry McLaurin", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-11T00:32Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3121422.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Stefon Diggs", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T15:40Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-2976212.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Jaylin Lane", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-06T23:14Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4602667.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Marcus Mariota", "position": "QB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T21:35Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-2576980.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Jeremy McNichols", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-11T01:00Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3127586.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Stefon Diggs", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Dyami Brown", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Main receiver31 current targets; McLaurin status compounds same passing pathways.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Stefon Diggs", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2976212/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "receptions": "47", "receivingTargets": "64", "receivingYards": "496", "yardsPerReception": "10.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "49", "receivingFirstDowns": "31", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "85", "receivingTargets": "102", "receivingYards": "1,013", "yardsPerReception": "11.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "34", "receivingFirstDowns": "51", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "31", "receivingYards": "170", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "20", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "8", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "13", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "13.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "13", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "118.8", "adjQBR": "12.1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "17", "teamSlug": "new-england-patriots", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "34", "category": "receiving", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "64", "receptions": "47", "receivingYards": "496", "yardsPerReception": "10.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 8.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "102", "receptions": "85", "receivingYards": "1,013", "yardsPerReception": "11.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "28", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "31", "receptions": "18", "receivingYards": "170", "yardsPerReception": "9.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "34", "category": "rushing", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "8", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.375 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "34", "category": "passing", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "1", "passingYards": "13", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "17", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "28", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Dyami Brown", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4361577/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "30", "receivingTargets": "40", "receivingYards": "308", "yardsPerReception": "10.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "51", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "20", "receivingTargets": "37", "receivingYards": "227", "yardsPerReception": "11.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "13", "receivingYards": "86", "yardsPerReception": "12.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "26", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "8.7", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "14", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "6", "rushingYards": "30", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "2", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "4.8" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "1", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "100.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "79.2", "adjQBR": "0.1" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "28", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "40", "receptions": "30", "receivingYards": "308", "yardsPerReception": "10.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 2.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "receiving", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "37", "receptions": "20", "receivingYards": "227", "yardsPerReception": "11.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.642857142857143, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "28", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "13", "receptions": "7", "receivingYards": "86", "yardsPerReception": "12.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 3.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "28", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "26", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.1875 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "rushing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "6", "rushingYards": "30", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.42857142857142855 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "28", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "1", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "30", "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "28", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "1", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.13235294117647, 20.129411764705885 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -4.002941176470586, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.754788748701124, 21.84608286420997 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.9087058844911553, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Terry McLaurin", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Treylon Burks", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official questionable despite encouraging Friday practice; condition retained.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Terry McLaurin", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3121422/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "82", "receivingTargets": "117", "receivingYards": "1,096", "yardsPerReception": "13.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "longReception": "86", "receivingFirstDowns": "56", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "38", "receivingTargets": "60", "receivingYards": "582", "yardsPerReception": "15.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "56", "receivingFirstDowns": "33", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "22", "receivingYards": "141", "yardsPerReception": "14.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "13", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "13", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "78" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "28", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "117", "receptions": "82", "receivingYards": "1,096", "yardsPerReception": "13.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.882352941176471, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "28", "category": "receiving", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "60", "receptions": "38", "receivingYards": "582", "yardsPerReception": "15.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "28", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "22", "receptions": "10", "receivingYards": "141", "yardsPerReception": "14.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.333333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "28", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.11764705882352941 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "28", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "28", "category": "passing", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "28", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Treylon Burks", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4567156/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "8", "receivingYards": "34", "yardsPerReception": "8.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "13", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "22", "receivingYards": "130", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "60", "yardsPerReception": "20.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "47", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "1", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "0.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "10", "teamSlug": "tennessee-titans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "1", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "0.7" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "10", "category": "receiving", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "8", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "34", "yardsPerReception": "8.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.6, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "28", "category": "receiving", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "22", "receptions": "10", "receivingYards": "130", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "28", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "6", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "60", "yardsPerReception": "20.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "10", "category": "rushing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.4 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "10", "category": "passing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "28", "category": "passing", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "28", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/28/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.13235294117647, 20.129411764705885 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -4.002941176470586, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.754788748701124, 21.84608286420997 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.9087058844911553, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Stefon Diggs" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Terry McLaurin" ], "included_players": [ "Stefon Diggs" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.13235294117647, 20.129411764705885 ], "home_margin": -4.002941176470586, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.754788748701124, 21.84608286420997 ], "home_margin": -0.9087058844911553, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.13235294117647, 20.129411764705885 ], "home_margin": -4.002941176470586, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.754788748701124, 21.84608286420997 ], "home_margin": -0.9087058844911553, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.13235294117647, 20.129411764705885 ], "home_margin": -4.002941176470586, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.754788748701124, 21.84608286420997 ], "home_margin": -0.9087058844911553, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Stefon Diggs" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Terry McLaurin" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Stefon Diggs", "Terry McLaurin" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.13235294117647, 20.129411764705885 ], "home_margin": -4.002941176470586, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.754788748701124, 21.84608286420997 ], "home_margin": -0.9087058844911553, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.13235294117647, 20.129411764705885 ], "home_margin": -4.002941176470586, "total": 44.26176470588236, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.754788748701124, 21.84608286420997 ], "home_margin": -0.9087058844911553, "total": 44.60087161291109, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -4.60006216554163, "total": 44.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.13235294117647, 17.129411764705885 ], "home_margin": -7.002941176470586, "total": 41.26176470588236, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 22.754788748701124, 18.84608286420997 ], "home_margin": -3.9087058844911553, "total": 41.60087161291109, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 16.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -7.60006216554163, "total": 41.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 24.48926055377082, 16.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -7.60006216554163, "total": 41.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.257298+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872989", "identity": { "id": "401872989", "date": "2026-10-11T20:05Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "7065", "fullName": "SoFi Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Inglewood", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "7", "away_name": "Denver Broncos", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "24", "home_name": "Los Angeles Chargers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "7", "team": "Denver Broncos", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Jaylen Waddle", "Marvin Mims Jr." ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Courtland Sutton", "Lil'Jordan Humphrey" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Troy Franklin", "Pat Bryant" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Bo Nix", "Jarrett Stidham", "Sam Ehlinger" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Evan Engram", "Adam Trautman", "Nate Adkins", "Dallen Bentley", "Caleb Lohner" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "J.K. Dobbins", "RJ Harvey", "Tyler Badie", "Jonah Coleman" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/7/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Pat Bryant", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T21:47Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4600981.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Caleb Lohner", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T16:50Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4432208.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Jonah Coleman", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T20:36Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4702555.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Pat Bryant", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed unavailable", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Lil'Jordan Humphrey", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official October9 corresponding transaction promotes Humphrey for Bryant IR after ankle injury. Bryant9 catches/12 targets/133 yards/1TD in4games; projected displaced12-target role shared among Humphrey, Franklin and Mims alongside Sutton/Waddle. The projection does not claim known future routes.", "familiarity": "Current official role evidence and historical team splits retained. Current coaching/play-call equivalence is not assumed; projected allocation remains conditional.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Pat Bryant", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4600981/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "31", "receivingTargets": "49", "receivingYards": "378", "yardsPerReception": "12.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "48", "receivingFirstDowns": "22", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "133", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "16", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "16.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "16", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "8" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "7", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "49", "receptions": "31", "receivingYards": "378", "yardsPerReception": "12.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.2666666666666666, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "7", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "12", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "133", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "7", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "16", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.25 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "7", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "7", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Lil'Jordan Humphrey", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4039057/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "31", "receivingTargets": "45", "receivingYards": "293", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "2", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "10", "receivingYards": "55", "yardsPerReception": "13.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "34", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "15", "receivingYards": "101", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "22", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "13", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "156", "yardsPerReception": "12.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "34", "receivingFirstDowns": "9", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "19", "teamSlug": "new-york-giants", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "7", "teamSlug": "denver-broncos", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "7", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "7", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "45", "receptions": "31", "receivingYards": "293", "yardsPerReception": "9.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 2.6470588235294117, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "19", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "10", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "55", "yardsPerReception": "13.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.3333333333333335, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "7", "category": "receiving", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "15", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "101", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.142857142857143, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": null, "category": "receiving", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "25", "receptions": "13", "receivingYards": "156", "yardsPerReception": "12.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "7", "category": "receiving", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "1", "receptions": "0", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "7", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "19", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "7", "category": "passing", "games": 7.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": null, "category": "passing", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "7", "category": "passing", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/broncos-promote-wr-lil-jordan-humphrey-to-active-roster-place-wr-pat-bryant-on-ir", "https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/injuryreport/injury-report-cbs-pat-surtain-ii-riley-moss-ruled-out-for-broncos-week-5-game-vs-chargers", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 18.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 2.455882352941174, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 17.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 2.3231514876773254, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 18.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.1777508724718118, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 18.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.1777508724718118, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Pat Bryant" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Pat Bryant" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "home_margin": 2.455882352941174, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "home_margin": 2.3231514876773254, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": 3.1777508724718118, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": 3.1777508724718118, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "home_margin": 2.455882352941174, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "home_margin": 2.3231514876773254, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": 3.1777508724718118, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": 3.1777508724718118, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "home_margin": 2.455882352941174, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 17.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "home_margin": 2.3231514876773254, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": 3.1777508724718118, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": 3.1777508724718118, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.308610+00:00", "material_other_roles": "StartingCBs SurtainII and Moss OUT; secondary/opponent scoring conversion unestimated, no invented opponent-point change." }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "24", "team": "Los Angeles Chargers", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Ladd McConkey", "Brenen Thompson", "Theo Wease Jr." ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Quentin Johnston", "Marquez Valdes-Scantling", "KeAndre Lambert-Smith" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Tre' Harris", "Derius Davis" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Justin Herbert", "DJ Uiagalelei", "Trey Lance" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Charlie Kolar", "Oronde Gadsden", "Hayden Rucci", "David Njoku" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Omarion Hampton", "Keaton Mitchell", "Kimani Vidal" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Ladd McConkey", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T20:40Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4612826.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Brenen Thompson", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T00:37Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4685553.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Quentin Johnston", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T20:43Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4429025.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "KeAndre Lambert-Smith", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-15T23:20Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4430870.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Trey Lance", "position": "QB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-11T00:57Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4383351.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Charlie Kolar", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T16:17Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4241263.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "David Njoku", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-23T19:36Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3123076.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Quentin Johnston", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Marquez Valdes-Scantling", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Main receiver18 current targets; McConkey conditional shares passing-drive pathway.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Quentin Johnston", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429025/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "55", "receivingTargets": "91", "receivingYards": "711", "yardsPerReception": "12.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "66", "receivingFirstDowns": "32", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "51", "receivingTargets": "85", "receivingYards": "735", "yardsPerReception": "14.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "60", "receivingFirstDowns": "27", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "18", "receivingYards": "108", "yardsPerReception": "15.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "44", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "6", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "7", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "1.5", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "91", "receptions": "55", "receivingYards": "711", "yardsPerReception": "12.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.066666666666666, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "85", "receptions": "51", "receivingYards": "735", "yardsPerReception": "14.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 6.071428571428571, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "18", "receptions": "7", "receivingYards": "108", "yardsPerReception": "15.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "24", "category": "rushing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "6", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.2 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "rushing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "7", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.14285714285714285 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.5 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Marquez Valdes-Scantling", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3051738/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "9", "receivingYards": "26", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "receptions": "17", "receivingTargets": "35", "receivingYards": "385", "yardsPerReception": "22.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "71", "receivingFirstDowns": "13", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2024 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "19", "receivingTargets": "44", "receivingYards": "411", "yardsPerReception": "21.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "71", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "8", "receivingYards": "40", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "10", "receivingTargets": "21", "receivingYards": "80", "yardsPerReception": "8.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "29", "receivingYards": "120", "yardsPerReception": "8.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "19", "receivingFirstDowns": "6", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "2", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "4", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "4", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "6", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2024, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2024 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "23", "teamSlug": "pittsburgh-steelers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "2", "category": "receiving", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "9", "receptions": "2", "receivingYards": "26", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "35", "receptions": "17", "receivingYards": "385", "yardsPerReception": "22.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.375, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": null, "category": "receiving", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "44", "receptions": "19", "receivingYards": "411", "yardsPerReception": "21.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.142857142857143, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "8", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "40", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.6, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "23", "category": "receiving", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "21", "receptions": "10", "receivingYards": "80", "yardsPerReception": "8.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.2, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": null, "category": "receiving", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "29", "receptions": "14", "receivingYards": "120", "yardsPerReception": "8.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.9, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "2", "receptions": "0", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "rushing", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "4", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.125 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "2", "category": "passing", "games": 6.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": null, "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "23", "category": "passing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": null, "category": "passing", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.326470588235296, 17.78235294117647 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -3.544117647058826, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.917172530828804, 17.24032401850613 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -3.6768485123226746, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Ladd McConkey", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Tre' Harris", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Main receiver17 targets; reserve Brenen Thompson OUT too.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Ladd McConkey", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4612826/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "82", "receivingTargets": "112", "receivingYards": "1,149", "yardsPerReception": "14.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "60", "receivingFirstDowns": "52", "receivingFumbles": "2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "66", "receivingTargets": "106", "receivingYards": "789", "yardsPerReception": "12.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "longReception": "58", "receivingFirstDowns": "35", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "12", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "183", "yardsPerReception": "15.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "44" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "6", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "112", "receptions": "82", "receivingYards": "1,149", "yardsPerReception": "14.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "106", "receptions": "66", "receivingYards": "789", "yardsPerReception": "12.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.625, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "17", "receptions": "12", "receivingYards": "183", "yardsPerReception": "15.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Tre' Harris", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4686612/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "30", "receivingTargets": "43", "receivingYards": "324", "yardsPerReception": "10.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "37", "receivingFirstDowns": "18", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "13", "receivingTargets": "22", "receivingYards": "209", "yardsPerReception": "16.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "53", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "10", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "23.7" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "43", "receptions": "30", "receivingYards": "324", "yardsPerReception": "10.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.5294117647058822, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "22", "receptions": "13", "receivingYards": "209", "yardsPerReception": "16.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "10", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.11764705882352941 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "1", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.326470588235296, 17.78235294117647 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -3.544117647058826, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.917172530828804, 17.24032401850613 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -3.6768485123226746, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "David Njoku", "position": "TE", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Oronde Gadsden", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Njoku IR confirmed; Kolar Sept21 planned IR statement was explicitly corrected Sept25: Kolar was NOT placed on IR. Current Oct9 official report Kolar QUESTIONABLE. Gadsden healthy lead receiving replacement; Rucci support. If Kolar returns, no automatic second -3; both allocations retained conditionally.", "familiarity": "Gadsden incumbent Chargers2025 receiver664yards/3TD,50yards/1TD first2games2026; coach support and current work documented. Rucci signedSept23 fromJAX practice; new-team experience limited.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "David Njoku", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3123076/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "5", "teamSlug": "cleveland-browns", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "64", "receivingTargets": "97", "receivingYards": "505", "yardsPerReception": "7.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "23", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "5", "teamSlug": "cleveland-browns", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "33", "receivingTargets": "48", "receivingYards": "293", "yardsPerReception": "8.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "11", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "6", "receivingTargets": "8", "receivingYards": "67", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "15", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "5", "teamSlug": "cleveland-browns", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "5", "teamSlug": "cleveland-browns", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "5", "teamSlug": "cleveland-browns", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "2", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "34" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "5", "teamSlug": "cleveland-browns", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "5", "category": "receiving", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "97", "receptions": "64", "receivingYards": "505", "yardsPerReception": "7.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 8.818181818181818, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "5", "category": "receiving", "games": 12.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "48", "receptions": "33", "receivingYards": "293", "yardsPerReception": "8.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "8", "receptions": "6", "receivingYards": "67", "yardsPerReception": "11.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "5", "category": "passing", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "5", "category": "passing", "games": 12.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Oronde Gadsden", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4595342/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "49", "receivingTargets": "69", "receivingYards": "664", "yardsPerReception": "13.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "53", "receivingFirstDowns": "28", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "9", "receivingTargets": "15", "receivingYards": "86", "yardsPerReception": "9.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "26", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "24", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-chargers", "position": "TE", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4595342", "name": "Oronde Gadsden", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4595342/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.261704+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "183", "teamSlug": "syracuse-orange", "stats": { "receptions": "73", "receivingYards": "934", "yardsPerReception": "12.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "39" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "183", "teamSlug": "syracuse-orange", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "12", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "12.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "12" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "183", "teamSlug": "syracuse-orange", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "44" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "69", "receptions": "49", "receivingYards": "664", "yardsPerReception": "13.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": 4.6, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "15", "receptions": "9", "receivingYards": "86", "yardsPerReception": "9.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.25 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "24", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/24/depthcharts", "https://www.chargers.com/news/david-njoku-injured-reserve-sign-marquez-valdes-scantling-active-roster-2026", "https://www.chargers.com/news/charlie-kolar-david-njoku-injured-reserve-fantasy", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://www.chargers.com/news/players-to-watch-bills-week-3-preview", "https://www.chargers.com/news/injury-report-mcconkey-johnston-alt-week-5-broncos", "https://www.chargers.com/team/injury-report/" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.326470588235296, 17.78235294117647 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -3.544117647058826, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.917172530828804, 17.24032401850613 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -3.6768485123226746, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Quentin Johnston", "David Njoku" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Ladd McConkey" ], "included_players": [ "Quentin Johnston", "David Njoku" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.326470588235296, 17.78235294117647 ], "home_margin": -3.544117647058826, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.917172530828804, 17.24032401850613 ], "home_margin": -3.6768485123226746, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.326470588235296, 17.78235294117647 ], "home_margin": -3.544117647058826, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.917172530828804, 17.24032401850613 ], "home_margin": -3.6768485123226746, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.326470588235296, 14.78235294117647 ], "home_margin": -6.544117647058826, "total": 36.108823529411765, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 20.917172530828804, 14.24032401850613 ], "home_margin": -6.676848512322675, "total": 35.15749654933494, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 15.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -5.822249127528188, "total": 37.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 15.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -5.822249127528188, "total": 37.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Quentin Johnston", "David Njoku" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Ladd McConkey" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Quentin Johnston", "David Njoku", "Ladd McConkey" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.326470588235296, 17.78235294117647 ], "home_margin": -3.544117647058826, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.917172530828804, 17.24032401850613 ], "home_margin": -3.6768485123226746, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.326470588235296, 17.78235294117647 ], "home_margin": -3.544117647058826, "total": 39.108823529411765, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.917172530828804, 17.24032401850613 ], "home_margin": -3.6768485123226746, "total": 38.15749654933494, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -2.8222491275281882, "total": 40.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 21.326470588235296, 11.78235294117647 ], "home_margin": -9.544117647058826, "total": 33.108823529411765, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 20.917172530828804, 11.24032401850613 ], "home_margin": -9.676848512322675, "total": 32.15749654933494, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -8.822249127528188, "total": 34.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 21.472645308123248, 12.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": -8.822249127528188, "total": 34.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.995284+00:00", "source_conflict_resolution": "Sept25 official Kolar correction supersedes Sept21 plannedIR text; Oct9 questionable status controls current conditional branch." } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872991", "identity": { "id": "401872991", "date": "2026-10-11T20:25Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3970", "fullName": "State Farm Stadium", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Glendale", "state": "AZ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Detroit Lions", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "22", "home_name": "Arizona Cardinals", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "8", "team": "Detroit Lions", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Amon-Ra St. Brown", "Tom Kennedy" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/8/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Jameson Williams", "Tay Martin" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/8/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Isaac TeSlaa", "Kendrick Law" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/8/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Jared Goff", "Joshua Dobbs" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/8/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Sam LaPorta", "Brock Wright", "Jackson Meeks", "Tyler Conklin" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/8/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jahmyr Gibbs", "Sione Vaki", "Jacob Saylors", "Isiah Pacheco" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/8/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Kendrick Law", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-06-17T20:34Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4685441.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Isiah Pacheco", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-14T21:35Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4361529.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "home_margin": -3.147058823529413, "total": 53.152941176470584, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "home_margin": -4.186413034417686, "total": 54.82537351787823, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "home_margin": -3.147058823529413, "total": 53.152941176470584, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "home_margin": -4.186413034417686, "total": 54.82537351787823, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "home_margin": -3.147058823529413, "total": 53.152941176470584, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "home_margin": -4.186413034417686, "total": 54.82537351787823, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.403455+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "22", "team": "Arizona Cardinals", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Michael Wilson", "Jalen Brooks", "Reggie Virgil" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/22/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Marvin Harrison Jr.", "Simi Fehoko" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/22/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Kendrick Bourne", "Devin Duvernay" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/22/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Jacoby Brissett", "Gardner Minshew II", "Carson Beck" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/22/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Trey McBride", "Elijah Higgins", "Teagan Quitoriano", "Tip Reiman", "Hunter Long", "Jameson Geers" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/22/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jeremiyah Love", "Tyler Allgeier", "Bam Knight", "James Conner", "Trey Benson" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/22/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Marvin Harrison Jr.", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-10T15:35Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4432708.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Tip Reiman", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T03:56Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4696700.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Hunter Long", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-06T23:22Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4239944.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Jameson Geers", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-19T12:07Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4588298.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "James Conner", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-30T21:50Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3045147.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Trey Benson", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-25T23:07Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4429275.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "home_margin": -3.147058823529413, "total": 53.152941176470584, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "home_margin": -4.186413034417686, "total": 54.82537351787823, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "home_margin": -3.147058823529413, "total": 53.152941176470584, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "home_margin": -4.186413034417686, "total": 54.82537351787823, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "home_margin": -3.147058823529413, "total": 53.152941176470584, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "home_margin": -4.186413034417686, "total": 54.82537351787823, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.009656+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872992", "identity": { "id": "401872992", "date": "2026-10-11T20:25Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3673", "fullName": "Lumen Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Seattle", "state": "WA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "San Francisco 49ers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "26", "home_name": "Seattle Seahawks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "25", "team": "San Francisco 49ers", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Mike Evans", "Jacob Cowing", "Demarcus Robinson", "Brandon Aiyuk" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/25/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Deebo Samuel Sr.", "Jordan Watkins", "De'Zhaun Stribling" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/25/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Brandin Cooks", "Christian Kirk", "Ricky Pearsall" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/25/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Brock Purdy", "Mac Jones", "Kurtis Rourke" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/25/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "George Kittle", "Luke Farrell", "Brayden Willis", "Jack Stoll", "Jake Tonges" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/25/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Christian McCaffrey", "Kaelon Black", "Jordan James", "Isaac Guerendo" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/25/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Demarcus Robinson", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-26T21:17Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3043116.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Brandon Aiyuk", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-21T15:27Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4360438.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "De'Zhaun Stribling", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-19T21:14Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4710714.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Christian Kirk", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-02T21:08Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3895856.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Ricky Pearsall", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-13T15:11Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4428209.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Jake Tonges", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-16T20:04Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4259147.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Isaac Guerendo", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-30T21:10Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4372561.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Ricky Pearsall", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed unavailable", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Deebo Samuel Sr.", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Pearsall season-ending IR; August1 official report explicitly links Samuel return to receiver need. Samuel historical SF2019-24, WAS2025 and SF2026 remain separate. Current Evans/Samuel starters, Cowing/Watkins/Cooks support pool; forecast shares not claimed exact.", "familiarity": "Current official role evidence and historical team splits retained. Current coaching/play-call equivalence is not assumed; projected allocation remains conditional.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Ricky Pearsall", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4428209/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "31", "receivingTargets": "46", "receivingYards": "400", "yardsPerReception": "12.9", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "46", "receivingFirstDowns": "19", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "9", "receptions": "36", "receivingTargets": "53", "receivingYards": "528", "yardsPerReception": "14.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "27", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "45", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "15.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "39", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "9", "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "-2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "1", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "1.9" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "9", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "46", "receptions": "31", "receivingYards": "400", "yardsPerReception": "12.9", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.181818181818182, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 9.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "53", "receptions": "36", "receivingYards": "528", "yardsPerReception": "14.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.888888888888889, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "rushing", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "45", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.2727272727272727 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "rushing", "games": 9.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "2", "rushingYards": "-2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.2222222222222222 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "1", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 9.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Deebo Samuel Sr.", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3126486/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "51", "receivingTargets": "81", "receivingYards": "670", "yardsPerReception": "13.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "76", "receivingFirstDowns": "28", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "72", "receivingTargets": "99", "receivingYards": "727", "yardsPerReception": "10.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "32", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "14", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "185", "yardsPerReception": "13.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "80", "receivingFirstDowns": "6", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "42", "rushingYards": "136", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "13", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "17", "rushingYards": "75", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.4", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "29", "rushingFirstDowns": "4", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "74", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "10.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "22", "rushingFirstDowns": "4", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "1", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "0.0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "18.2" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "81", "receptions": "51", "receivingYards": "670", "yardsPerReception": "13.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.4, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "28", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "99", "receptions": "72", "receivingYards": "727", "yardsPerReception": "10.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.1875, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "17", "receptions": "14", "receivingYards": "185", "yardsPerReception": "13.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "rushing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "42", "rushingYards": "136", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 2.8 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "28", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "17", "rushingYards": "75", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 1.0625 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "25", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "7", "rushingYards": "74", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 1.75 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "28", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://www.49ers.com/news/teammates-faithful-rally-behind-pearsall-in-his-recovery-off-the-field", "https://www.49ers.com/news/day-5-of-49ers-camp-2026-samuel-sr-returns-to-red-and-gold", "https://www.49ers.com/team/depth-chart", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 18.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 5.405882352941173, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 16.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 9.156184408048048, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Christian Kirk", "position": "WR", "state": "confirmed unavailable", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Brandin Cooks", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Kirk IR designated return August30; projected slot/inside work redistributed to Samuel/Cooks/Watkins. Same receiving drives overlap Pearsall loss. Current team rates already incorporate season-opening absence.", "familiarity": "Current official role evidence and historical team splits retained. Current coaching/play-call equivalence is not assumed; projected allocation remains conditional.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Christian Kirk", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3895856/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "receptions": "27", "receivingTargets": "47", "receivingYards": "379", "yardsPerReception": "14.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "61", "receivingFirstDowns": "18", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "receptions": "28", "receivingTargets": "52", "receivingYards": "239", "yardsPerReception": "8.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "47", "receivingFirstDowns": "12", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "30", "teamSlug": "jacksonville-jaguars", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "8", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "34", "teamSlug": "houston-texans", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "30", "category": "receiving", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "47", "receptions": "27", "receivingYards": "379", "yardsPerReception": "14.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.875, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "34", "category": "receiving", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "52", "receptions": "28", "receivingYards": "239", "yardsPerReception": "8.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 4.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "30", "category": "passing", "games": 8.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "34", "category": "passing", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Brandin Cooks", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/16731/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "26", "receivingTargets": "54", "receivingYards": "259", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "longReception": "29", "receivingFirstDowns": "19", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "receptions": "19", "receivingTargets": "25", "receivingYards": "165", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "21", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "11", "receivingYards": "114", "yardsPerReception": "22.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "50", "receivingFirstDowns": "4", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "24", "receivingTargets": "36", "receivingYards": "279", "yardsPerReception": "11.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "50", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "-3", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "-1.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "5", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "18", "teamSlug": "new-orleans-saints", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "2", "teamSlug": "buffalo-bills", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": null, "teamSlug": "2025 Totals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "6", "teamSlug": "dallas-cowboys", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "3", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "18" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "6", "category": "receiving", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "54", "receptions": "26", "receivingYards": "259", "yardsPerReception": "10.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 5.4, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "receiving", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "25", "receptions": "19", "receivingYards": "165", "yardsPerReception": "8.7", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "2", "category": "receiving", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "11", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "114", "yardsPerReception": "22.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.2, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": null, "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "36", "receptions": "24", "receivingYards": "279", "yardsPerReception": "11.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.4, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "1", "receptions": "0", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "6", "category": "rushing", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "-3", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.3 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "6", "category": "passing", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "18", "category": "passing", "games": 10.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "2", "category": "passing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": null, "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://www.49ers.com/news/49ers-announce-moves-for-initial-53-man-roster-x1231", "https://www.49ers.com/team/depth-chart", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 18.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 5.405882352941173, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 16.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 9.156184408048048, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Demarcus Robinson", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional if material intended receiver role is assumed", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Jacob Cowing", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Robinson September26 IR after Week2 high ankle injury; six current targets indicate supporting role. Conditional material-receiver scenario retained only if intended return-to-reference role includes meaningful routes; Cowing/Watkins projected pool. No claim that six targets alone establish main role.", "familiarity": "Current official role evidence and historical team splits retained. Current coaching/play-call equivalence is not assumed; projected allocation remains conditional.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Demarcus Robinson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3043116/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "31", "receivingTargets": "64", "receivingYards": "505", "yardsPerReception": "16.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "longReception": "46", "receivingFirstDowns": "27", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "22", "receivingTargets": "35", "receivingYards": "276", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "31", "receivingFirstDowns": "15", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "84", "yardsPerReception": "16.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "39", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "6", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "6", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "14", "teamSlug": "los-angeles-rams", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "7", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "8" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "2", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "14", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "64", "receptions": "31", "receivingYards": "505", "yardsPerReception": "16.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.764705882352941, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "35", "receptions": "22", "receivingYards": "276", "yardsPerReception": "12.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "6", "receptions": "5", "receivingYards": "84", "yardsPerReception": "16.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "rushing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "6", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.07142857142857142 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "14", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 2.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Jacob Cowing", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4575665/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "80", "yardsPerReception": "20.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "41", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "0", "receivingTargets": "3", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "0", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "7", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "7", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "2", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "2.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "2", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "15", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "25", "teamSlug": "san-francisco-49ers", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "6", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "80", "yardsPerReception": "20.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.4, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "25", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "3", "receptions": "0", "receivingYards": "0", "yardsPerReception": "0.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.75, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "rushing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "7", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.06666666666666667 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "25", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.25 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 15.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "25", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://www.49ers.com/news/49ers-make-a-series-of-roster-moves-ahead-of-azvssf", "https://www.49ers.com/team/depth-chart", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 18.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 5.405882352941173, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 16.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 9.156184408048048, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Ricky Pearsall", "Christian Kirk" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Demarcus Robinson" ], "included_players": [ "Ricky Pearsall", "Christian Kirk" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": 5.405882352941173, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 9.156184408048048, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": 5.405882352941173, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 9.156184408048048, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 15.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": 8.405882352941173, "total": 40.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 13.756757949254538, 25.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 12.156184408048048, "total": 39.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 17.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 6.571052843717531, "total": 41.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 17.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 6.571052843717531, "total": 41.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Ricky Pearsall", "Christian Kirk" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Demarcus Robinson" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Ricky Pearsall", "Christian Kirk", "Demarcus Robinson" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": 5.405882352941173, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 9.156184408048048, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 18.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": 5.405882352941173, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 16.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 9.156184408048048, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 3.5710528437175313, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 12.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": 11.405882352941173, "total": 37.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 10.756757949254538, 25.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 15.156184408048048, "total": 36.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 14.354192606676541, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 9.571052843717531, "total": 38.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 14.354192606676541, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 9.571052843717531, "total": 38.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.021246+00:00", "material_other_roles": "Juszczyk OUT blockingFB; MikeEvans ribs LP/DNP/LP without game-status designation. Do not assert Evans OUT. Indirect blocking/tempo effects unestimated, no fixedFB deduction." }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "26", "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Jaxon Smith-Njigba", "Tory Horton", "Jake Bobo" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Rashid Shaheed", "Montorie Foster Jr." ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Cooper Kupp", "Irv Charles" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Sam Darnold", "Drew Lock", "Jalen Milroe" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "AJ Barner", "Eric Saubert", "Elijah Arroyo", "Nick Kallerup" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Emanuel Wilson", "George Holani", "Velus Jones Jr.", "Robert Henry Jr.", "Zach Charbonnet", "Jadarian Price" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Jake Bobo", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-22T17:45Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4360405.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Irv Charles", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-11T02:02Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3929636.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "George Holani", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T21:59Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4429835.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Zach Charbonnet", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-05T17:05Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4426385.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Jadarian Price", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-03T20:02Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4685512.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Jadarian Price", "position": "RB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Emanuel Wilson", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official October2 re-aggravation; current depth IR.28 carries7 targets; Wilson/Holani replace starter carries. Rookie college season data separate.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Jadarian Price", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4685512/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "28", "rushingYards": "119", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "25", "rushingFirstDowns": "8", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "4", "receivingTargets": "7", "receivingYards": "21", "yardsPerReception": "5.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": { "id": "4685512", "name": "Jadarian Price", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/college-football/athletes/4685512/stats", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T05:39:22.265812+00:00", "league": "NCAA", "categories": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "120", "rushingYards": "746", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "longRushing": "70" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "rushingAttempts": "113", "rushingYards": "674", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "11", "longRushing": "58" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "10", "yardsPerReception": "2.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "8" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "receptions": "6", "receivingYards": "87", "yardsPerReception": "14.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "35" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "7", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "7", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "42" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "87", "teamSlug": "notre-dame-fighting-irish", "stats": { "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "11", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "2", "totalTouchdowns": "15", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "90" } } ] } ], "conversion": "NONE: never pooled with NFL or converted into NFL points" }, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "28", "rushingYards": "119", "rushingFumblesLost": "2" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 9.333333333333334 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "7", "receptions": "4", "receivingYards": "21", "yardsPerReception": "5.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.3333333333333335, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4887558/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "103", "rushingYards": "502", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "27", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "125", "rushingYards": "496", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "32", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "53", "rushingYards": "190", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "9", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "4.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "99", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "25", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "5", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "20" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "103", "rushingYards": "502", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.0588235294117645 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "125", "rushingYards": "496", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 7.352941176470588 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "53", "rushingYards": "190", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 13.25 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "14", "receptions": "11", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "4.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.8235294117647058, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingYards": "99", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "5", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "https://www.seahawks.com/news/jadarian-price-out-after-aggravating-chest-injury-other-seahawks-injury-updates", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.864705882352943, 21.270588235294117 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.5941176470588267, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.75675794925454, 22.912942357302587 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.1561844080480483, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Zach Charbonnet", "position": "RB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Emanuel Wilson", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official OUT Week5; prior material committee back, no current2026 games. Ongoing PUP/ACL absence and Price loss share same reference backfield: do not simply sum.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Zach Charbonnet", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4426385/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "135", "rushingYards": "569", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "longRushing": "51", "rushingFirstDowns": "32", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "rushingAttempts": "184", "rushingYards": "730", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "longRushing": "30", "rushingFirstDowns": "48", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "42", "receivingTargets": "52", "receivingYards": "340", "yardsPerReception": "8.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "32", "receivingFirstDowns": "8", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "receptions": "20", "receivingTargets": "24", "receivingYards": "144", "yardsPerReception": "7.2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "21", "receivingFirstDowns": "7", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "9", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "54" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "16", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "12", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "12", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "74" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "26", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "135", "rushingYards": "569", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 7.9411764705882355 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "26", "category": "rushing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "184", "rushingYards": "730", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 11.5 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "26", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "52", "receptions": "42", "receivingYards": "340", "yardsPerReception": "8.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 3.0588235294117645, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "26", "category": "receiving", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "24", "receptions": "20", "receivingYards": "144", "yardsPerReception": "7.2", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.5, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "26", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "26", "category": "passing", "games": 16.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4887558/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "103", "rushingYards": "502", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "27", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "125", "rushingYards": "496", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "32", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "53", "rushingYards": "190", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "9", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "4.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "99", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "25", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "5", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "20" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "103", "rushingYards": "502", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.0588235294117645 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "125", "rushingYards": "496", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 7.352941176470588 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "53", "rushingYards": "190", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 13.25 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "14", "receptions": "11", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "4.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.8235294117647058, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingYards": "99", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "5", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.864705882352943, 21.270588235294117 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.5941176470588267, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.75675794925454, 22.912942357302587 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.1561844080480483, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "George Holani", "position": "RB", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Emanuel Wilson", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Holani questionable with22carries/8targets; if unavailable, current lead Wilson absorbs additional committee work with reserve Jones support. Price/Charbonnet/Holani are the same backfield opportunity chain, not three independent lead workloads.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "George Holani", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429835/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "10", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "8", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "rushingAttempts": "22", "rushingYards": "73", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "5", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "22", "rushingYards": "70", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "receptions": "1", "receivingTargets": "1", "receivingYards": "-1", "yardsPerReception": "-1.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "-1", "receivingFirstDowns": "0", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "receptions": "2", "receivingTargets": "2", "receivingYards": "15", "yardsPerReception": "7.5", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "11", "receivingFirstDowns": "1", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "7", "receivingTargets": "8", "receivingYards": "52", "yardsPerReception": "7.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "14", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "11", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "26", "category": "rushing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "3", "rushingYards": "10", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.6 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "26", "category": "rushing", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "22", "rushingYards": "73", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 2.0 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "22", "rushingYards": "70", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 5.5 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "26", "category": "receiving", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "1", "receptions": "1", "receivingYards": "-1", "yardsPerReception": "-1.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.2, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "26", "category": "receiving", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "2", "receptions": "2", "receivingYards": "15", "yardsPerReception": "7.5", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.18181818181818182, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "8", "receptions": "7", "receivingYards": "52", "yardsPerReception": "7.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "26", "category": "passing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "26", "category": "passing", "games": 11.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4887558/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "103", "rushingYards": "502", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "27", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "125", "rushingYards": "496", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "longRushing": "15", "rushingFirstDowns": "32", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "53", "rushingYards": "190", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "3.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "9", "rushingFumbles": "1", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "14", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "4.4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "30", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingTargets": "17", "receivingYards": "99", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "longReception": "25", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "5", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "23", "receivingFirstDowns": "2", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "5", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "30" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "9", "teamSlug": "green-bay-packers", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "3", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "3", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "20" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "26", "teamSlug": "seattle-seahawks", "position": "RB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "college_seasons_separate": null, "missing_fields": [ "verified starts when not in source", "routes/snaps when unavailable", "red-zone opportunities", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "2024, 2025 and 2026 kept separate; team splits not added to combined rows; missing NFL/college records are unavailable, not zero or converted.", "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "103", "rushingYards": "502", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 6.0588235294117645 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "125", "rushingYards": "496", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 7.352941176470588 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "53", "rushingYards": "190", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 13.25 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "14", "receptions": "11", "receivingYards": "48", "yardsPerReception": "4.4", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 0.8235294117647058, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "17", "receptions": "15", "receivingYards": "99", "yardsPerReception": "6.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "receiving", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "5", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "39", "yardsPerReception": "13.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.25, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "9", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "26", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/26/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.864705882352943, 21.270588235294117 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -0.5941176470588267, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 19.75675794925454, 22.912942357302587 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.1561844080480483, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Jadarian Price", "Zach Charbonnet" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "George Holani" ], "included_players": [ "Jadarian Price", "Zach Charbonnet" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.864705882352943, 21.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": -0.5941176470588267, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.75675794925454, 22.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 3.1561844080480483, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.864705882352943, 21.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": -0.5941176470588267, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.75675794925454, 22.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 3.1561844080480483, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 21.864705882352943, 18.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": -3.5941176470588267, "total": 40.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 19.75675794925454, 19.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 0.15618440804804834, "total": 39.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -5.428947156282469, "total": 41.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 17.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -5.428947156282469, "total": 41.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Jadarian Price", "Zach Charbonnet" ], "conditional_absent": [ "George Holani" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Jadarian Price", "Zach Charbonnet", "George Holani" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.864705882352943, 21.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": -0.5941176470588267, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.75675794925454, 22.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 3.1561844080480483, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.864705882352943, 21.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": -0.5941176470588267, "total": 43.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 19.75675794925454, 22.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 3.1561844080480483, "total": 42.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -2.4289471562824687, "total": 44.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 21.864705882352943, 15.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": -6.594117647058827, "total": 37.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 19.75675794925454, 16.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": -2.8438155919519517, "total": 36.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -8.428947156282469, "total": 38.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -9, "adjusted": [ 23.35419260667654, 14.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": -8.428947156282469, "total": 38.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.056209+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" }, { "event_id": "401872993", "identity": { "id": "401872993", "date": "2026-10-12T00:20Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "5348", "fullName": "Mercedes-Benz Stadium", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Atlanta", "state": "GA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "33", "away_name": "Baltimore Ravens", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "1", "home_name": "Atlanta Falcons", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ] }, "teams": [ { "side": "away", "team_id": "33", "team": "Baltimore Ravens", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Zay Flowers", "Chris Moore", "Ja'Kobi Lane" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Rashod Bateman", "LaJohntay Wester" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Devontez Walker", "Elijah Sarratt" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Lamar Jackson", "Tyler Huntley", "Joe Fagnano", "Skylar Thompson" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Mark Andrews", "Matthew Hibner", "Josh Cuevas", "Nick Vannett", "Durham Smythe" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Derrick Henry", "Justice Hill", "Rasheen Ali", "Adam Randall" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Zay Flowers", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T20:34Z", "status": "Questionable", "type": { "id": "2", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_QUESTIONABLE", "description": "questionable", "abbreviation": "Q" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4429615.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Ja'Kobi Lane", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T17:56Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4870847.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Lamar Jackson", "position": "QB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-09T17:34Z", "status": "Out", "type": { "id": "4", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_OUT", "description": "out", "abbreviation": "O" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3916387.json", "classification": "covered isolated/conditional scenario" }, { "player": "Skylar Thompson", "position": "QB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-19T12:07Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4036419.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Durham Smythe", "position": "TE", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-10-07T23:18Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-3052897.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Adam Randall", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T03:52Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4685526.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "player": "Lamar Jackson", "position": "QB", "state": "confirmed OUT/IR", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Tyler Huntley", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Official coach confirms Huntley starter. Familiarity supported by sixth Baltimore season and OC practice report; new 2026 coordinator must not be equated to unchanged system.", "familiarity": "Sixth Ravens season; 2020-23 and2025-26 Baltimore; actual2026 OC practice confidence verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Lamar Jackson", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/3916387/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "316", "passingAttempts": "474", "completionPct": "66.7", "passingYards": "4,172", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.8", "passingTouchdowns": "41", "interceptions": "4", "longPassing": "84", "sacks": "23", "QBRating": "119.6", "adjQBR": "74.8" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "completions": "192", "passingAttempts": "302", "completionPct": "63.6", "passingYards": "2,549", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "8.4", "passingTouchdowns": "21", "interceptions": "7", "longPassing": "64", "sacks": "36", "QBRating": "103.8", "adjQBR": "62.7" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "68", "passingAttempts": "96", "completionPct": "70.8", "passingYards": "967", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "10.1", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "interceptions": "1", "longPassing": "54", "sacks": "7", "QBRating": "119.6", "adjQBR": "80.9" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "139", "rushingYards": "915", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "48", "rushingFirstDowns": "47", "rushingFumbles": "8", "rushingFumblesLost": "4" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "rushingAttempts": "67", "rushingYards": "349", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "19", "rushingFirstDowns": "24", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "rushingAttempts": "19", "rushingYards": "144", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "7.6", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "21", "rushingFirstDowns": "9", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "receiving", "rows": [] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "41", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "13", "passingTouchdowns": "21", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "6", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "33", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "474", "passingYards": "4,172", "interceptions": "4" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "33", "category": "passing", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "302", "passingYards": "2,549", "interceptions": "7" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "33", "category": "passing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "96", "passingYards": "967", "interceptions": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "33", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "139", "rushingYards": "915", "rushingFumblesLost": "4" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 8.176470588235293 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "33", "category": "rushing", "games": 13.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "67", "rushingYards": "349", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 5.153846153846154 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "33", "category": "rushing", "games": 4.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "19", "rushingYards": "144", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 4.75 } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Tyler Huntley", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4035671/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "86", "passingAttempts": "133", "completionPct": "64.7", "passingYards": "829", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.2", "passingTouchdowns": "3", "interceptions": "3", "longPassing": "25", "sacks": "15", "QBRating": "80.1", "adjQBR": "32.2" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "completions": "52", "passingAttempts": "67", "completionPct": "77.6", "passingYards": "426", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.4", "passingTouchdowns": "2", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "36", "sacks": "8", "QBRating": "103.1", "adjQBR": "80.8" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "completions": "8", "passingAttempts": "9", "completionPct": "88.9", "passingYards": "63", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "7.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "18", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "95.8", "adjQBR": "72.7" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "26", "rushingYards": "135", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "5.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "longRushing": "20", "rushingFirstDowns": "10", "rushingFumbles": "2", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "rushingAttempts": "24", "rushingYards": "151", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.3", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "29", "rushingFirstDowns": "11", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "1", "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "16", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "15", "teamSlug": "miami-dolphins", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "3", "rushingTouchdowns": "2", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "5", "passingTouchdowns": "2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "0", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "0" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "15", "category": "passing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "133", "passingYards": "829", "interceptions": "3" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "33", "category": "passing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "67", "passingYards": "426", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "33", "category": "passing", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "9", "passingYards": "63", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "15", "category": "rushing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "26", "rushingYards": "135", "rushingFumblesLost": "1" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 5.2 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "33", "category": "rushing", "games": 5.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "24", "rushingYards": "151", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 4.8 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "33", "category": "rushing", "games": 1.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "4", "rushingYards": "16", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 4.0 } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-ankle-out-falcons-tyler-huntley-start", "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/declan-doyle-confident-tyler-huntley-derrick-henry-calls-bijan-robinson-best-running-back-week-5-ravens-falcons", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 2.394117647058824, "total": 44.811764705882354, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.8253717794804274, "total": 45.61436071514904, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." }, { "player": "Zay Flowers", "position": "WR", "state": "conditional if OUT or materially limited", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "Chris Moore", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "Main receiver22 targets. Any joint QB/WR deduction must account for the same lost passing drives.", "familiarity": "Historical same-team seasons can be read in team-split comparisons; exact current coaching/practice familiarity not fully verified.", "comparison": { "incumbent": { "name": "Zay Flowers", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/4429615/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "74", "receivingTargets": "116", "receivingYards": "1,059", "yardsPerReception": "14.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "53", "receivingFirstDowns": "48", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "86", "receivingTargets": "118", "receivingYards": "1,211", "yardsPerReception": "14.1", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "longReception": "64", "receivingFirstDowns": "48", "receivingFumbles": "3", "receivingFumblesLost": "3" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "18", "receivingTargets": "22", "receivingYards": "352", "yardsPerReception": "19.6", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "longReception": "54", "receivingFirstDowns": "14", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "9", "rushingYards": "56", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "19", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "rushingAttempts": "10", "rushingYards": "62", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "6.2", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "longRushing": "18", "rushingFirstDowns": "3", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "20", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "20.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "20", "rushingFirstDowns": "1", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "1", "receivingTouchdowns": "5", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "6", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "36" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "2", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "2", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "12" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2024, "team_id": "33", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "116", "receptions": "74", "receivingYards": "1,059", "yardsPerReception": "14.3", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 6.823529411764706, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "33", "category": "receiving", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "118", "receptions": "86", "receivingYards": "1,211", "yardsPerReception": "14.1", "receivingFumblesLost": "3" }, "targets_per_game": 6.9411764705882355, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "33", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "22", "receptions": "18", "receivingYards": "352", "yardsPerReception": "19.6", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 7.333333333333333, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "33", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "9", "rushingYards": "56", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.5294117647058824 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "33", "category": "rushing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "10", "rushingYards": "62", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.5882352941176471 }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "33", "category": "rushing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "20", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "year": 2024, "team_id": "33", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "33", "category": "passing", "games": 17.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "33", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] }, "replacement": { "name": "Chris Moore", "url": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/football/nfl/athletes/2576581/stats", "separate_season_team_splits": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "receptions": "11", "receivingTargets": "23", "receivingYards": "207", "yardsPerReception": "18.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "44", "receivingFirstDowns": "10", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "receptions": "3", "receivingTargets": "6", "receivingYards": "63", "yardsPerReception": "21.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "53", "receivingFirstDowns": "3", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "9", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "9.0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "longRushing": "9", "rushingFirstDowns": "0", "rushingFumbles": "0", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "28", "teamSlug": "washington-commanders", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "14", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "33", "teamSlug": "baltimore-ravens", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "3", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "verified starts", "routes/snaps", "red-zone opportunity", "verified drops", "pass protection/protection calls", "drive-specific incremental scoring conversion" ], "caveat": "Combined total rows, where supplied by provider, must not be added again to team splits. No college-to-NFL conversion.", "college_seasons_separate": null, "opportunity_comparison": [ { "year": 2025, "team_id": "28", "category": "receiving", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "23", "receptions": "11", "receivingYards": "207", "yardsPerReception": "18.8", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 1.6428571428571428, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "33", "category": "receiving", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "receivingTargets": "6", "receptions": "3", "receivingYards": "63", "yardsPerReception": "21.0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": 2.0, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "28", "category": "rushing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "rushingAttempts": "1", "rushingYards": "9", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": 0.07142857142857142 }, { "year": 2025, "team_id": "28", "category": "passing", "games": 14.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null }, { "year": 2026, "team_id": "33", "category": "passing", "games": 3.0, "opportunities_and_efficiency": { "passingAttempts": "0", "passingYards": "0", "interceptions": "0" }, "targets_per_game": null, "carries_per_game": null } ] } }, "sources": [ "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/33/depthcharts", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games" ], "overlay_version": "football-replacement-human-v1", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 2.394117647058824, "total": 44.811764705882354, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 22.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 0.8253717794804274, "total": 45.61436071514904, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_effect_status": "UNESTIMATED: registered forecast retained; true effect not asserted zero", "human_deduction": -3.0, "other_independent_adjustments": [], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjusted_forecast_approved": true, "approval_scope": "User-authorized isolated availability sensitivity only", "margin_home": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PERSONNEL COMPLETE; PASS / NOT LIVE pending parent freeze/model/market/stress gates" } }, "projected_workload_basis": "Incumbent reference opportunities shown by separate season/team. Replacement/pool expected to absorb some displaced role, with redistribution to other current starters; exact future shares unavailable and not fabricated. Human deduction does not require an invented share coefficient.", "baseline_overlap": "Current team-rate history may already include absence; statistical player effect remains unestimated. The extra human sensitivity is separately authorized, not a claim of a second measured effect." } ], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [ "Lamar Jackson" ], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [ "Zay Flowers" ], "included_players": [ "Lamar Jackson" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "home_margin": 2.394117647058824, "total": 44.811764705882354, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "home_margin": 0.8253717794804274, "total": 45.61436071514904, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "home_margin": 2.394117647058824, "total": 44.811764705882354, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "home_margin": 0.8253717794804274, "total": 45.61436071514904, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "home_margin": 2.394117647058824, "total": 44.811764705882354, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "home_margin": 0.8253717794804274, "total": 45.61436071514904, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] }, { "confirmed_absent": [ "Lamar Jackson" ], "conditional_absent": [ "Zay Flowers" ], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [ "Lamar Jackson", "Zay Flowers" ], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "home_margin": 2.394117647058824, "total": 44.811764705882354, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "home_margin": 0.8253717794804274, "total": 45.61436071514904, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "home_margin": 2.394117647058824, "total": 44.811764705882354, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 22.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "home_margin": 0.8253717794804274, "total": 45.61436071514904, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -3, "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "home_margin": 5.394117647058824, "total": 41.811764705882354, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 19.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "home_margin": 3.8253717794804274, "total": 42.61436071514904, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 6.35488398363017, "total": 43.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": -6, "adjusted": [ 18.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 6.35488398363017, "total": 43.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:36.261252+00:00" }, { "side": "home", "team_id": "1", "team": "Atlanta Falcons", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Drake London", "Zachariah Branch" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/1/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Jahan Dotson", "Chris Blair" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/1/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Olamide Zaccheaus", "Beaux Collins" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/1/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Michael Penix Jr.", "Tua Tagovailoa", "Cooper Rush", "Jack Strand" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/1/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Kyle Pitts Sr.", "Charlie Woerner", "Austin Hooper", "Nick Muse" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/1/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Bijan Robinson", "Brian Robinson Jr.", "Trey Sermon" ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/teams/1/depthcharts", "role_basis": "Current depth order plus retained2024/25/26 opportunity comparison; route precision unavailable unless explicitly documented." } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "player": "Beaux Collins", "position": "WR", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-08-31T04:00Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4431210.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" }, { "player": "Trey Sermon", "position": "RB", "availability": [ { "date": "2026-09-08T20:42Z", "status": "Injured Reserve", "type": { "id": "5", "name": "INJURY_STATUS_IR", "description": "Injured Reserve", "abbreviation": "IR" }, "details": null } ], "statistics_file": "stats-4241401.json", "classification": "screened reserve/support or overlapping same-role absence; no separate automatic human deduction" } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "status": "COMPLETE CONDITIONAL HUMAN SCENARIOS", "branches": [ { "confirmed_absent": [], "conditional_absent": [], "conditional_available": [], "included_players": [], "joint_sensitivities": [ { "label": "full-overlap sensitivity", "assumption": "All included availability judgments concern the same lost drives; count once. Conditional overlap boundary, not a universal cap.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "home_margin": -0.6058823529411761, "total": 47.811764705882354, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "home_margin": -2.1746282205195726, "total": 48.61436071514904, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 0.35488398363017026, "total": 49.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 0.35488398363017026, "total": 49.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "assumption": "QB/WR/TE overlap within passing drives; material RB losses represent a separate rushing pathway. Same backfield committee/replacement chain counted once. This is an explicit human scenario, not an estimated conversion.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "home_margin": -0.6058823529411761, "total": 47.811764705882354, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "home_margin": -2.1746282205195726, "total": 48.61436071514904, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 0.35488398363017026, "total": 49.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 0.35488398363017026, "total": 49.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } }, { "label": "distinct-player-workload sensitivity", "assumption": "Stress boundary conditional on separate displaced opportunities per material player. Never default for same-drive/same-backfield replacement chains. Actual application requires distinct opportunities; retained for robustness, not automatic injury-headcount deduction.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "home_margin": -0.6058823529411761, "total": 47.811764705882354, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "home_margin": -2.1746282205195726, "total": 48.61436071514904, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 0.35488398363017026, "total": 49.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": "unestimated", "human_deduction": 0, "adjusted": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 0.35488398363017026, "total": 49.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE; parent freeze and price/stress gates pending" } } } ] } ], "decision_basis": "Retain isolated cases and explicit overlap endpoints. No endpoint is empirically established. Before live action, selection must pass applicable justified scenarios plus registered risk/calibration/stress gates. Distinct-player endpoint is not default and not automatic. Baseline agreement and adjusted agreement remain separate.", "opponent_score_change": 0, "opponent_note": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; opponent points unchanged with true indirect effects unestimated." }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Covered positions screened. Current main-role cases explicitly modeled; ongoing reserve/support absences do not earn automatic -3. Recent small supporting roles are conditional where materiality is uncertain. Detailed missing advanced statistics remain uncertainties rather than invented values.", "status": "PERSONNEL REVIEW COMPLETE / conditional scenarios retained", "latest_depth_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:35.727455+00:00" } ], "decision": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "release_gate": "PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE WITH EXPLICIT CONDITIONAL ASSUMPTIONS; parent freeze and all remaining model/market/stress gates required" } ], "trade_reviews": [ { "player": "J.J. McCarthy", "transaction_date": "2026-09-28", "former_team": "Minnesota Vikings", "new_team": "New York Giants", "review_team": "Minnesota Vikings", "pathway_side": "sending", "status": "VERIFIED", "transaction_sources": [ "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/9", "https://www.vikings.com/news/jj-mccarthy-quarterback-trade-new-york-giants-2026-nfl-season", "https://www.giants.com/news/j-j-mccarthy-trade-details-minnesota-vikings-quarterback-2027-nfl-draft-michigan-wolverines", "https://www.giants.com/team/transactions/", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/9", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10" ], "reference_lineup_role_and_opportunity_change": "Murray remains QB1; Wentz ahead of traded reserve. Baseline expected starting workload unchanged.", "offensive_pathway": "ZERO conditional on unchanged Murray/Wentz healthy starting rotation; depth contingency unestimated.", "defensive_pathway": "No direct defense role; contingent possession/field-position pathway unestimated.", "active_status_familiarity": "See reference role and official transaction/injury sources. Specific snap allocations and practice/system transfer uncertain unless noted.", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "140", "passingAttempts": "243", "completionPct": "57.6", "passingYards": "1,632", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.7", "passingTouchdowns": "11", "interceptions": "12", "longPassing": "62", "sacks": "27", "QBRating": "72.6", "adjQBR": "35.6" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "rushingAttempts": "37", "rushingYards": "181", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "26", "rushingFirstDowns": "12", "rushingFumbles": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "passingTouchdowns": "11", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } } ] } ], "numerical_method": "Only supported role/opportunity mechanisms; no automatic trade -3; unestimated means unknown rather than zero.", "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ] }, "statistical_adjusted_score": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ] }, "human_deduction": 0.0, "gate_outcome": "REVIEW COMPLETE: zero conditional direct contribution or unestimated pathway disclosed; no automatic trade deduction; parent event gates pending", "uncertainty": "Transaction is not evidence player is worse. Both teams evaluated separately; no forced equal-and-opposite adjustment.", "statistical_effect_status": "No supported scoring conversion; registered baseline retained, not a claim true effect is zero.", "current_event_score_register": [ { "eventId": "401872987", "away": "Minnesota Vikings", "home": "New Orleans Saints", "models": { "Classic": { "base": [ 22.779411764705884, 19.826470588235296 ], "adjusted": [ 19.779411764705884, 16.826470588235296 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.345309493882276, 18.032384574004084 ], "adjusted": [ 19.345309493882276, 15.032384574004084 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base": [ 24.268382352941174, 20.835111928911882 ], "adjusted": [ 21.268382352941174, 17.835111928911882 ], "statistical_effect": null } }, "gate": "PASS pending price-specific gates" } ], "attachment_note": "Current review-team event matched by name/league ID; off-slate counterparty has no invented game. No automatic trade deduction.", "score_attachment_status": "CURRENT EVENT ATTACHED" }, { "player": "J.J. McCarthy", "transaction_date": "2026-09-28", "former_team": "Minnesota Vikings", "new_team": "New York Giants", "review_team": "New York Giants", "pathway_side": "acquiring", "status": "VERIFIED", "transaction_sources": [ "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/9", "https://www.vikings.com/news/jj-mccarthy-quarterback-trade-new-york-giants-2026-nfl-season", "https://www.giants.com/news/j-j-mccarthy-trade-details-minnesota-vikings-quarterback-2027-nfl-draft-michigan-wolverines", "https://www.giants.com/team/transactions/", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/9", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10" ], "reference_lineup_role_and_opportunity_change": "Winston remains listed starter; acquired reserve replaces depth following Dart IR and Haener waiver. Jim Harbaugh college history verified; John Harbaugh is different coach. Current-system practice precision unverified.", "offensive_pathway": "ZERO expected starting-snap contribution conditional on Winston playing full game; McCarthy relief/turnover/rushing contribution unestimated.", "defensive_pathway": "No direct defense role; contingent turnover/field-position pathway unestimated.", "active_status_familiarity": "See reference role and official transaction/injury sources. Specific snap allocations and practice/system transfer uncertain unless noted.", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "completions": "140", "passingAttempts": "243", "completionPct": "57.6", "passingYards": "1,632", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "6.7", "passingTouchdowns": "11", "interceptions": "12", "longPassing": "62", "sacks": "27", "QBRating": "72.6", "adjQBR": "35.6" } } ] }, { "category": "rushing", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "rushingAttempts": "37", "rushingYards": "181", "yardsPerRushAttempt": "4.9", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "longRushing": "26", "rushingFirstDowns": "12", "rushingFumbles": "3", "rushingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2025, "teamId": "16", "teamSlug": "minnesota-vikings", "position": "QB", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "10", "passingTouchdowns": "11", "rushingTouchdowns": "4", "receivingTouchdowns": "0", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "24" } } ] } ], "numerical_method": "Only supported role/opportunity mechanisms; no automatic trade -3; unestimated means unknown rather than zero.", "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ] }, "statistical_adjusted_score": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ] }, "human_deduction": 0.0, "gate_outcome": "REVIEW COMPLETE: zero conditional direct contribution or unestimated pathway disclosed; no automatic trade deduction; parent event gates pending", "uncertainty": "Transaction is not evidence player is worse. Both teams evaluated separately; no forced equal-and-opposite adjustment.", "statistical_effect_status": "No supported scoring conversion; registered baseline retained, not a claim true effect is zero.", "current_event_score_register": [ { "eventId": "401872988", "away": "New York Giants", "home": "Washington Commanders", "models": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "adjusted": [ 21.13235294117647, 20.129411764705885 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Primary": { "base": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "adjusted": [ 19.754788748701124, 21.84608286420997 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "adjusted": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "adjusted": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "statistical_effect": null } }, "gate": "PASS pending price-specific gates" } ], "attachment_note": "Current review-team event matched by name/league ID; off-slate counterparty has no invented game. No automatic trade deduction.", "score_attachment_status": "CURRENT EVENT ATTACHED" }, { "player": "Cam Jurgens", "transaction_date": "2026-10-07", "former_team": "Philadelphia Eagles", "new_team": "Baltimore Ravens", "review_team": "Philadelphia Eagles", "pathway_side": "sending", "status": "VERIFIED", "transaction_sources": [ "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10", "https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-agree-to-trade-cam-jurgens-to-the-ravens", "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/ravens-trade-cam-jurgens-center-pro-bowl-injuries-2026", "https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-sign-jake-majors-and-carson-steele", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/game-preview-at-jaguars-6-storylines-to-follow-jordan-mailata-jalen-hurts-trevor-lawrence-travis-hunter-2026-nfl-week-6-london-international-game", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/9", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10", "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/team/players-roster/cam-jurgens/" ], "reference_lineup_role_and_opportunity_change": "Starting center traded; Kendall OUT, Majors promoted. Majors Eagles practice squad since2025 and three2026 preseason games; Lane Johnson retirement compounds protection.", "offensive_pathway": "UNESTIMATED snap/protection communication and run-blocking change; cannot convert to scoring without data. OL trade gets no automatic -3.", "defensive_pathway": "No direct defense snaps; possible possession/turnover/field-position consequences unestimated.", "active_status_familiarity": "See reference role and official transaction/injury sources. Specific snap allocations and practice/system transfer uncertain unless noted.", "team_split_statistics": { "2024_PHI": { "games": 16, "starts": 16 }, "2025_PHI": { "games": 14, "starts": 14 }, "2026_PHI": { "games": 4, "starts": 4 }, "2026_BAL": { "status": "OUT concussion", "direct_current_event_snaps": 0 }, "source": "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/team/players-roster/cam-jurgens/" }, "numerical_method": "Only supported role/opportunity mechanisms; no automatic trade -3; unestimated means unknown rather than zero.", "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ] }, "statistical_adjusted_score": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ] }, "human_deduction": 0.0, "gate_outcome": "REVIEW COMPLETE: zero conditional direct contribution or unestimated pathway disclosed; no automatic trade deduction; parent event gates pending", "uncertainty": "Transaction is not evidence player is worse. Both teams evaluated separately; no forced equal-and-opposite adjustment.", "statistical_effect_status": "No supported scoring conversion; registered baseline retained, not a claim true effect is zero.", "current_event_score_register": [ { "eventId": "401872981", "away": "Philadelphia Eagles", "home": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "models": { "Classic": { "base": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "adjusted": [ 13.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Primary": { "base": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "adjusted": [ 14.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "adjusted": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "adjusted": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_effect": null } }, "gate": "PASS pending price-specific gates" } ], "attachment_note": "Current review-team event matched by name/league ID; off-slate counterparty has no invented game. No automatic trade deduction.", "score_attachment_status": "CURRENT EVENT ATTACHED" }, { "player": "Cam Jurgens", "transaction_date": "2026-10-07", "former_team": "Philadelphia Eagles", "new_team": "Baltimore Ravens", "review_team": "Baltimore Ravens", "pathway_side": "acquiring", "status": "VERIFIED", "transaction_sources": [ "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10", "https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-agree-to-trade-cam-jurgens-to-the-ravens", "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/ravens-trade-cam-jurgens-center-pro-bowl-injuries-2026", "https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/eagles-sign-jake-majors-and-carson-steele", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/game-preview-at-jaguars-6-storylines-to-follow-jordan-mailata-jalen-hurts-trevor-lawrence-travis-hunter-2026-nfl-week-6-london-international-game", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/9", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10", "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/team/players-roster/cam-jurgens/" ], "reference_lineup_role_and_opportunity_change": "Acquired intended starting center but concussion OUT this Sunday; immediate on-field contribution zero. Existing center injuries and current replacement continuity unresolved.", "offensive_pathway": "ZERO direct on-field contribution this event because ruled OUT; alternative center/protection effect unestimated.", "defensive_pathway": "No direct defense snaps; existing protection turnover/field-position consequences unestimated.", "active_status_familiarity": "See reference role and official transaction/injury sources. Specific snap allocations and practice/system transfer uncertain unless noted.", "team_split_statistics": { "2024_PHI": { "games": 16, "starts": 16 }, "2025_PHI": { "games": 14, "starts": 14 }, "2026_PHI": { "games": 4, "starts": 4 }, "2026_BAL": { "status": "OUT concussion", "direct_current_event_snaps": 0 }, "source": "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/team/players-roster/cam-jurgens/" }, "numerical_method": "Only supported role/opportunity mechanisms; no automatic trade -3; unestimated means unknown rather than zero.", "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ] }, "statistical_adjusted_score": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ] }, "human_deduction": 0.0, "gate_outcome": "REVIEW COMPLETE: zero conditional direct contribution or unestimated pathway disclosed; no automatic trade deduction; parent event gates pending", "uncertainty": "Transaction is not evidence player is worse. Both teams evaluated separately; no forced equal-and-opposite adjustment.", "statistical_effect_status": "No supported scoring conversion; registered baseline retained, not a claim true effect is zero.", "current_event_score_register": [ { "eventId": "401872993", "away": "Baltimore Ravens", "home": "Atlanta Falcons", "models": { "Classic": { "base": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "adjusted": [ 21.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Primary": { "base": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "adjusted": [ 22.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "adjusted": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_effect": null } }, "gate": "PASS pending price-specific gates" } ], "attachment_note": "Current review-team event matched by name/league ID; off-slate counterparty has no invented game. No automatic trade deduction.", "score_attachment_status": "CURRENT EVENT ATTACHED" }, { "player": "Joey Porter Jr.", "transaction_date": "2026-10-01 official league log", "former_team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "new_team": "Dallas Cowboys", "review_team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "pathway_side": "sending", "status": "VERIFIED", "transaction_sources": [ "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10", "https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/cowboys-agree-to-terms-on-trade-for-steelers-cb-joey-porter-jr", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/9", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10", "https://www.dallascowboys.com/team/players-roster/joey-porter-jr/career", "https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/joey-porter-jr-quickly-gaining-confidence-comfort-in-cowboys-defense", "https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/updates-october-2026" ], "reference_lineup_role_and_opportunity_change": "Former starting boundaryCB, absent first3PITgames; current replacement secondary without DeanOUT and RamseyQ. Preserve coverage uncertainty without adding a second measured absence effect.", "offensive_pathway": "No direct offensive snaps; turnover/field-position feedback unestimated.", "defensive_pathway": "UNESTIMATED coverage/target distribution/opponent-passing effect; no validated points conversion.", "active_status_familiarity": "Dallas October4 debut24/52defensive snaps(46.2%);19coverage snaps1target0completions. OUTlateillness October8, superseding previous active assumption. Pittsburgh first3games missedbackinjury; sending-team recent baseline already excludes him. NewDallaspackage narrow after only days preparation; Oct6player familiarity report retained.", "team_split_statistics": { "2024_PIT": { "games": 16, "tackles": 67, "passes_defended": 7, "interceptions": 1 }, "2025_PIT": { "games": 14, "tackles": 51, "passes_defended": 14, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 1 }, "2026_PIT": { "missed_first_three_games": true }, "2026_DAL": { "debut_defensive_snaps": 24, "team_defensive_snaps": 52, "coverage_snaps": 19, "targets": 1, "completions_allowed": 0, "later_Oct8_status": "OUT illness" }, "caveat": "Official career/current articles preserve team splits; blank current career cells not zero." }, "numerical_method": "Only supported role/opportunity mechanisms; no automatic trade -3; unestimated means unknown rather than zero.", "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ] }, "statistical_adjusted_score": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ] }, "human_deduction": 0.0, "gate_outcome": "REVIEW COMPLETE: zero conditional direct contribution or unestimated pathway disclosed; no automatic trade deduction; parent event gates pending", "uncertainty": "Transaction is not evidence player is worse. Both teams evaluated separately; no forced equal-and-opposite adjustment.", "statistical_effect_status": "No supported scoring conversion; registered baseline retained, not a claim true effect is zero.", "transaction_announcement_date": "2026-09-30 evening Eastern", "current_event_score_register": [ { "eventId": "401872985", "away": "Indianapolis Colts", "home": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "models": { "Classic": { "base": [ 23.75294117647059, 24.076470588235292 ], "adjusted": [ 20.75294117647059, 21.076470588235292 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Primary": { "base": [ 24.197472992568912, 24.537762097154314 ], "adjusted": [ 21.197472992568912, 21.537762097154314 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base": [ 23.72472093456948, 24.15573965659633 ], "adjusted": [ 20.72472093456948, 21.15573965659633 ], "statistical_effect": null } }, "gate": "PASS pending price-specific gates" } ], "attachment_note": "Current review-team event matched by name/league ID; off-slate counterparty has no invented game. No automatic trade deduction.", "score_attachment_status": "CURRENT EVENT ATTACHED" }, { "player": "Joey Porter Jr.", "transaction_date": "2026-10-01 official league log", "former_team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "new_team": "Dallas Cowboys", "review_team": "Dallas Cowboys", "pathway_side": "acquiring", "status": "VERIFIED", "transaction_sources": [ "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10", "https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/cowboys-agree-to-terms-on-trade-for-steelers-cb-joey-porter-jr", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-week-5-injury-report-player-statuses-for-all-15-games", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/9", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10", "https://www.dallascowboys.com/team/players-roster/joey-porter-jr/career", "https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/joey-porter-jr-quickly-gaining-confidence-comfort-in-cowboys-defense", "https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/updates-october-2026" ], "reference_lineup_role_and_opportunity_change": "Dallas boundaryCB with measured October4 limitedpackage; October8OUTlateillness. OffOct11slate; no score issued.", "offensive_pathway": "No October11 scheduled event; future offense field-position feedback unestimated.", "defensive_pathway": "UNESTIMATED coverage fit and familiarity; off-slate today, no score issued.", "active_status_familiarity": "Dallas October4 debut24/52defensive snaps(46.2%);19coverage snaps1target0completions. OUTlateillness October8, superseding previous active assumption. Pittsburgh first3games missedbackinjury; sending-team recent baseline already excludes him. NewDallaspackage narrow after only days preparation; Oct6player familiarity report retained.", "team_split_statistics": { "2024_PIT": { "games": 16, "tackles": 67, "passes_defended": 7, "interceptions": 1 }, "2025_PIT": { "games": 14, "tackles": 51, "passes_defended": 14, "interceptions": 1, "sacks": 1 }, "2026_PIT": { "missed_first_three_games": true }, "2026_DAL": { "debut_defensive_snaps": 24, "team_defensive_snaps": 52, "coverage_snaps": 19, "targets": 1, "completions_allowed": 0, "later_Oct8_status": "OUT illness" }, "caveat": "Official career/current articles preserve team splits; blank current career cells not zero." }, "numerical_method": "Only supported role/opportunity mechanisms; no automatic trade -3; unestimated means unknown rather than zero.", "base_scores": null, "statistical_adjusted_score": null, "human_deduction": 0.0, "gate_outcome": "REVIEW COMPLETE: zero conditional direct contribution or unestimated pathway disclosed; no automatic trade deduction; parent event gates pending", "uncertainty": "Transaction is not evidence player is worse. Both teams evaluated separately; no forced equal-and-opposite adjustment.", "statistical_effect_status": "No supported scoring conversion; registered baseline retained, not a claim true effect is zero.", "transaction_announcement_date": "2026-09-30 evening Eastern", "current_event_score_register": [], "attachment_note": "Current review-team event matched by name/league ID; off-slate counterparty has no invented game. No automatic trade deduction.", "score_attachment_status": "NO CURRENT EVENT FOR REVIEW TEAM; base/adjusted N/A for today" }, { "player": "Marvin Harrison Jr.", "transaction_date": null, "former_team": "Arizona Cardinals", "new_team": "UNIDENTIFIED", "review_team": "Arizona Cardinals", "pathway_side": "sending", "status": "PENDING / not completed", "transaction_sources": [ "https://www.azcardinals.com/news/reports-cardinals-readying-to-trade-marvin-harrison-jr", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-network-cardinals-finalizing-trade-of-wr-marvin-harrison-jr", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/9", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10" ], "reference_lineup_role_and_opportunity_change": "Reported inactive pending trade;12 targets from team/stat source versus13 reported by NFL story (conflict retained). Wilson/Bourne/McBride redistribution.", "offensive_pathway": "UNESTIMATED target redistribution; transaction-related inactivity does not receive automatic football -3.", "defensive_pathway": "No direct defensive role; possession/turnover/field-position pathway unestimated.", "active_status_familiarity": "See reference role and official transaction/injury sources. Specific snap allocations and practice/system transfer uncertain unless noted.", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "62", "receivingTargets": "116", "receivingYards": "885", "yardsPerReception": "14.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "60", "receivingFirstDowns": "43", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "41", "receivingTargets": "73", "receivingYards": "608", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "30", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "85", "yardsPerReception": "17.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "33", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "numerical_method": "Only supported role/opportunity mechanisms; no automatic trade -3; unestimated means unknown rather than zero.", "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ] }, "statistical_adjusted_score": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ] }, "human_deduction": 0.0, "gate_outcome": "PENDING TRANSACTION MONITOR: no acquiring club/date invented; no trade deduction", "uncertainty": "Transaction is not evidence player is worse. Both teams evaluated separately; no forced equal-and-opposite adjustment.", "statistical_effect_status": "No supported scoring conversion; registered baseline retained, not a claim true effect is zero.", "current_event_score_register": [ { "eventId": "401872991", "away": "Detroit Lions", "home": "Arizona Cardinals", "models": { "Classic": { "base": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "adjusted": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Primary": { "base": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "adjusted": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_effect": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "base": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "adjusted": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_effect": null } }, "gate": "PASS pending price-specific gates" } ], "attachment_note": "Current review-team event matched by name/league ID; off-slate counterparty has no invented game. No automatic trade deduction.", "score_attachment_status": "CURRENT EVENT ATTACHED" }, { "player": "Marvin Harrison Jr.", "transaction_date": null, "former_team": "Arizona Cardinals", "new_team": "UNIDENTIFIED", "review_team": "UNIDENTIFIED", "pathway_side": "acquiring", "status": "PENDING / not completed", "transaction_sources": [ "https://www.azcardinals.com/news/reports-cardinals-readying-to-trade-marvin-harrison-jr", "https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-network-cardinals-finalizing-trade-of-wr-marvin-harrison-jr", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/9", "https://www.nfl.com/transactions/league/trades/2026/10" ], "reference_lineup_role_and_opportunity_change": "No confirmed acquiring team/date. Houston discussion does not establish transaction or active role.", "offensive_pathway": "UNESTIMATED; do not invent acquiring team, role or familiarity.", "defensive_pathway": "UNESTIMATED; no identified team.", "active_status_familiarity": "See reference role and official transaction/injury sources. Specific snap allocations and practice/system transfer uncertain unless noted.", "team_split_statistics": [ { "category": "receiving", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "receptions": "62", "receivingTargets": "116", "receivingYards": "885", "yardsPerReception": "14.3", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "longReception": "60", "receivingFirstDowns": "43", "receivingFumbles": "1", "receivingFumblesLost": "1" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "receptions": "41", "receivingTargets": "73", "receivingYards": "608", "yardsPerReception": "14.8", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "longReception": "45", "receivingFirstDowns": "30", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "receptions": "5", "receivingTargets": "12", "receivingYards": "85", "yardsPerReception": "17.0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "longReception": "33", "receivingFirstDowns": "5", "receivingFumbles": "0", "receivingFumblesLost": "0" } } ] }, { "category": "passing", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "completions": "0", "passingAttempts": "0", "completionPct": "0.0", "passingYards": "0", "yardsPerPassAttempt": "0.0", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "interceptions": "0", "longPassing": "0", "sacks": "0", "QBRating": "39.6", "adjQBR": "-" } } ] }, { "category": "scoring", "rows": [ { "year": 2024, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "17", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "8", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "8", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "48" } }, { "year": 2025, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "12", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "4", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "4", "totalTwoPointConvs": "1", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "26" } }, { "year": 2026, "teamId": "22", "teamSlug": "arizona-cardinals", "position": "WR", "stats": { "gamesPlayed": "4", "passingTouchdowns": "0", "rushingTouchdowns": "0", "receivingTouchdowns": "1", "returnTouchdowns": "0", "totalTouchdowns": "1", "totalTwoPointConvs": "0", "kickExtraPoints": "0", "fieldGoals": "0", "totalPoints": "6" } } ] } ], "numerical_method": "Only supported role/opportunity mechanisms; no automatic trade -3; unestimated means unknown rather than zero.", "base_scores": null, "statistical_adjusted_score": null, "human_deduction": 0.0, "gate_outcome": "PENDING TRANSACTION MONITOR: no acquiring club/date invented; no trade deduction", "uncertainty": "Transaction is not evidence player is worse. Both teams evaluated separately; no forced equal-and-opposite adjustment.", "statistical_effect_status": "No supported scoring conversion; registered baseline retained, not a claim true effect is zero.", "current_event_score_register": [], "attachment_note": "Current review-team event matched by name/league ID; off-slate counterparty has no invented game. No automatic trade deduction.", "score_attachment_status": "NO CURRENT EVENT FOR REVIEW TEAM; base/adjusted N/A for today" } ], "source_failures": [ { "id": "4702120", "name": "Carson Towt", "error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found" }, { "id": "5192448", "name": "Cole Burgess", "error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found" } ], "release_status": "FOOTBALL PERSONNEL RESEARCH COMPLETE; NOT FROZEN / NOT LIVE", "blocking_reasons": [], "arithmetic_audit": "independent-arithmetic.json", "incidental_exposure": { "current_day_prices_requested": false, "historical_odds_snippet_seen": true, "details": "An unrelated historical2025-26 PDF snippet appeared in a broad official injury search. It was not opened, retained as evidence, or used. Strict domain filtering used afterward. No fully blind claim.", "retry_note": "Strict official-domain source search incidentally contained a qualitative historical underdog word; no numerical price was read/requested or used. Saved source text filters market-bearing lines. This is not claimed as a fully blind trial." }, "nonblocking_limitations": [ "Exact future routes/touches unavailable: evidence-supported current projected pools and conditional material roles retained.", "Statistical personnel conversion unestimated; registered baseline plus separately authorized human availability sensitivities, no invented coefficient.", "Conditional statuses and joint overlap endpoints must be preserved through parent freeze and post-price gates.", "Pending Harrison trade has no verified destination/date; both-party placeholder retained and no trade overlay.", "Two original reserve-player stat404s remain visible; no scenario is fabricated from failed data.", "Football personnel completion does not certify website QA, other sport desks, calibrated probabilities, or release." ], "source_retrieval_summary": { "NFL_stat_requests": 400, "NFL_stat_successes": 398, "errors": 2, "error_scope": "Carson Towt and Cole Burgess reserve-player404 responses; these do not independently block every NFL event.", "full_log": "stats-fetch-log.json", "college_comparisons": "college-stat-fetch-log.json", "zero_row_caveat": "A zero-row/no-NFL history response is not a transport failure and is never filled with invented statistics." }, "retry_of_read_only_ledger": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-11-Research\\football\\football-replacement-ledger.json", "candidate_cutoff_utc": "2026-10-11T11:20:25.977667+00:00" }, "supplement": { "created_utc": "2026-10-11T11:27:47.238028+00:00", "price_requests": false, "status": "READY FOR PARENT FREEZE; not independently frozen", "events": [ { "event_id": "401872981", "identity": { "id": "401872981", "date": "2026-10-11T13:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": true, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "5534", "fullName": "Tottenham Hotspur Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "London", "country": "England" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Philadelphia Eagles", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "home_score": 0.0 }, "production_scenario": "Confirmed-absence separate passing/rushing human sensitivity; conditional cases retained separately", "scenario_choice_by_team": [ { "team": "Philadelphia Eagles", "confirmed_absences": [ "Saquon Barkley", "DeVonta Smith" ], "conditional_players": [], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. Passing and rushing are conditionally treated as distinct workload pathways, not empirically independent effects. Current statistical baseline retained, including prior-absence history. All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." }, { "team": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "confirmed_absences": [], "conditional_players": [], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. Passing and rushing are conditionally treated as distinct workload pathways, not empirically independent effects. Current statistical baseline retained, including prior-absence history. All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." } ], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "human_deductions": [ -6, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "home_margin": 10.932352941176475, "total": 36.96764705882353, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 13.017647058823528, 26.950000000000003 ], "home_selection": [ 16.017647058823528, 23.950000000000003 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 33.96764705882353, "under_selection_total": 39.96764705882353, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "human_deductions": [ -6, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "home_margin": 7.458931239157202, "total": 36.64915203683435, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 14.595110398838575, 25.054041637995777 ], "home_selection": [ 17.595110398838575, 22.054041637995777 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 33.64915203683435, "under_selection_total": 39.64915203683435, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "human_deductions": [ -6, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 12.576729588103671, "total": 36.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 11.817029049795593, 27.393758637899264 ], "home_selection": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 33.21078768769486, "under_selection_total": 39.21078768769486, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 17.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "human_deductions": [ -6, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 11.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "home_margin": 12.576729588103671, "total": 36.21078768769486, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 11.817029049795593, 27.393758637899264 ], "home_selection": [ 14.817029049795593, 24.393758637899264 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 33.21078768769486, "under_selection_total": 39.21078768769486, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } } }, "risk_register": [ { "team": "Philadelphia Eagles", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json event_reviews matching event_id; every team joint_scenario branch and justified sensitivity remains applicable. Combine opposing team scenario adjustments independently; no automatic opponent decrement.", "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Official current availability/depth, reference roles and replacement pools reconciled for both teams; see scenario_choice_by_team and original ledger.", "Uncle Sibursam": "Separate2024/25/26 team-split opportunities support role review; small current sample, prior absence incorporation and missing advanced measures disclosed.", "Gideon Marsh": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "other_four_desks": "Parent agents own their separate schedule, model, matchup/conditions and market synthesis; no independent review falsely attributed here." } }, { "event_id": "401872990", "identity": { "id": "401872990", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3798", "fullName": "Lambeau Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Green Bay", "state": "WI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "3", "away_name": "Chicago Bears", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "9", "home_name": "Green Bay Packers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "production_scenario": "Confirmed-absence separate passing/rushing human sensitivity; conditional cases retained separately", "scenario_choice_by_team": [ { "team": "Chicago Bears", "confirmed_absences": [ "Kyle Monangai" ], "conditional_players": [ "Caleb Williams" ], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. Passing and rushing are conditionally treated as distinct workload pathways, not empirically independent effects. Current statistical baseline retained, including prior-absence history. All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." }, { "team": "Green Bay Packers", "confirmed_absences": [ "Jayden Reed", "Josh Jacobs" ], "conditional_players": [], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. Passing and rushing are conditionally treated as distinct workload pathways, not empirically independent effects. Current statistical baseline retained, including prior-absence history. 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Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "other_four_desks": "Parent agents own their separate schedule, model, matchup/conditions and market synthesis; no independent review falsely attributed here." } }, { "event_id": "401872985", "identity": { "id": "401872985", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3752", "fullName": "Acrisure Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "11", "away_name": "Indianapolis Colts", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "23", "home_name": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "production_scenario": "Confirmed-absence separate passing/rushing human sensitivity; conditional cases retained separately", "scenario_choice_by_team": [ { "team": "Indianapolis Colts", "confirmed_absences": [ "Alec Pierce" ], "conditional_players": [ "Keenan Allen" ], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. 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Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Rico Dowdle" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json event_reviews matching event_id; every team joint_scenario branch and justified sensitivity remains applicable. Combine opposing team scenario adjustments independently; no automatic opponent decrement.", "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Official current availability/depth, reference roles and replacement pools reconciled for both teams; see scenario_choice_by_team and original ledger.", "Uncle Sibursam": "Separate2024/25/26 team-split opportunities support role review; small current sample, prior absence incorporation and missing advanced measures disclosed.", "Gideon Marsh": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "other_four_desks": "Parent agents own their separate schedule, model, matchup/conditions and market synthesis; no independent review falsely attributed here." } }, { "event_id": "401872988", "identity": { "id": "401872988", "date": "2026-10-11T17:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3719", "fullName": "Northwest Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Landover", "state": "MD", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "New York Giants", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Washington Commanders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "production_scenario": "Confirmed-absence separate passing/rushing human sensitivity; conditional cases retained separately", "scenario_choice_by_team": [ { "team": "New York Giants", "confirmed_absences": [ "Jaxson Dart" ], "conditional_players": [], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. 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All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." } ], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.13235294117647, 20.129411764705885 ], "home_margin": -1.0029411764705856, "total": 41.26176470588236, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 21.13235294117647, 23.129411764705885 ], "home_selection": [ 24.13235294117647, 20.129411764705885 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 38.26176470588236, "under_selection_total": 44.26176470588236, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 22.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.754788748701124, 21.84608286420997 ], "home_margin": 2.0912941155088447, "total": 41.60087161291109, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 19.754788748701124, 24.84608286420997 ], "home_selection": [ 22.754788748701124, 21.84608286420997 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 38.60087161291109, "under_selection_total": 44.60087161291109, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -1.6000621655416296, "total": 41.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "home_selection": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 38.37845894200001, "under_selection_total": 44.37845894200001, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "home_margin": -1.6000621655416296, "total": 41.37845894200001, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 21.48926055377082, 22.88919838822919 ], "home_selection": [ 24.48926055377082, 19.88919838822919 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 38.37845894200001, "under_selection_total": 44.37845894200001, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } } }, "risk_register": [ { "team": "New York Giants", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Washington Commanders", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Terry McLaurin" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Washington Commanders", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json event_reviews matching event_id; every team joint_scenario branch and justified sensitivity remains applicable. Combine opposing team scenario adjustments independently; no automatic opponent decrement.", "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Official current availability/depth, reference roles and replacement pools reconciled for both teams; see scenario_choice_by_team and original ledger.", "Uncle Sibursam": "Separate2024/25/26 team-split opportunities support role review; small current sample, prior absence incorporation and missing advanced measures disclosed.", "Gideon Marsh": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "other_four_desks": "Parent agents own their separate schedule, model, matchup/conditions and market synthesis; no independent review falsely attributed here." } }, { "event_id": "401872989", "identity": { "id": "401872989", "date": "2026-10-11T20:05Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "7065", "fullName": "SoFi Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Inglewood", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "7", "away_name": "Denver Broncos", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "24", "home_name": "Los Angeles Chargers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "production_scenario": "Confirmed-absence separate passing/rushing human sensitivity; conditional cases retained separately", "scenario_choice_by_team": [ { "team": "Denver Broncos", "confirmed_absences": [ "Pat Bryant" ], "conditional_players": [], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. Passing and rushing are conditionally treated as distinct workload pathways, not empirically independent effects. Current statistical baseline retained, including prior-absence history. All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." }, { "team": "Los Angeles Chargers", "confirmed_absences": [ "Quentin Johnston", "David Njoku" ], "conditional_players": [ "Ladd McConkey" ], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. Passing and rushing are conditionally treated as distinct workload pathways, not empirically independent effects. Current statistical baseline retained, including prior-absence history. All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." } ], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.326470588235296, 17.78235294117647 ], "home_margin": -0.544117647058826, "total": 36.108823529411765, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 18.326470588235296, 20.78235294117647 ], "home_selection": [ 21.326470588235296, 17.78235294117647 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 33.108823529411765, "under_selection_total": 39.108823529411765, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 20.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.917172530828804, 17.24032401850613 ], "home_margin": -0.6768485123226746, "total": 35.15749654933494, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 17.917172530828804, 20.24032401850613 ], "home_selection": [ 20.917172530828804, 17.24032401850613 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 32.15749654933494, "under_selection_total": 38.15749654933494, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": 0.17775087247181176, "total": 37.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 18.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "home_selection": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 34.12304148871831, "under_selection_total": 40.12304148871831, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "home_margin": 0.17775087247181176, "total": 37.12304148871831, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 18.472645308123248, 21.65039618059506 ], "home_selection": [ 21.472645308123248, 18.65039618059506 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 34.12304148871831, "under_selection_total": 40.12304148871831, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } } }, "risk_register": [ { "team": "Denver Broncos", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Los Angeles Chargers", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Ladd McConkey" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Los Angeles Chargers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json event_reviews matching event_id; every team joint_scenario branch and justified sensitivity remains applicable. Combine opposing team scenario adjustments independently; no automatic opponent decrement.", "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Official current availability/depth, reference roles and replacement pools reconciled for both teams; see scenario_choice_by_team and original ledger.", "Uncle Sibursam": "Separate2024/25/26 team-split opportunities support role review; small current sample, prior absence incorporation and missing advanced measures disclosed.", "Gideon Marsh": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "other_four_desks": "Parent agents own their separate schedule, model, matchup/conditions and market synthesis; no independent review falsely attributed here." } }, { "event_id": "401872991", "identity": { "id": "401872991", "date": "2026-10-11T20:25Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3970", "fullName": "State Farm Stadium", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Glendale", "state": "AZ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Detroit Lions", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "22", "home_name": "Arizona Cardinals", "home_score": 0.0 }, "production_scenario": "Confirmed-absence separate passing/rushing human sensitivity; conditional cases retained separately", "scenario_choice_by_team": [ { "team": "Detroit Lions", "confirmed_absences": [], "conditional_players": [], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. 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All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." } ], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "home_margin": -3.147058823529413, "total": 53.152941176470584, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 28.15, 28.002941176470586 ], "home_selection": [ 31.15, 25.002941176470586 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 50.152941176470584, "under_selection_total": 56.152941176470584, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.505893276147958, 25.319480241730272 ], "home_margin": -4.186413034417686, "total": 54.82537351787823, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 29.505893276147958, 28.319480241730272 ], "home_selection": [ 32.50589327614796, 25.319480241730272 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 51.82537351787823, "under_selection_total": 57.82537351787823, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 28.656250000000004, 29.771098922523553 ], "home_selection": [ 31.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 52.42734892252356, "under_selection_total": 58.42734892252356, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "home_margin": -1.8851510774764506, "total": 55.42734892252356, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 28.656250000000004, 29.771098922523553 ], "home_selection": [ 31.656250000000004, 26.771098922523553 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 52.42734892252356, "under_selection_total": 58.42734892252356, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } } }, "risk_register": [ { "team": "Detroit Lions", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Arizona Cardinals", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json event_reviews matching event_id; every team joint_scenario branch and justified sensitivity remains applicable. Combine opposing team scenario adjustments independently; no automatic opponent decrement.", "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Official current availability/depth, reference roles and replacement pools reconciled for both teams; see scenario_choice_by_team and original ledger.", "Uncle Sibursam": "Separate2024/25/26 team-split opportunities support role review; small current sample, prior absence incorporation and missing advanced measures disclosed.", "Gideon Marsh": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "other_four_desks": "Parent agents own their separate schedule, model, matchup/conditions and market synthesis; no independent review falsely attributed here." } }, { "event_id": "401872992", "identity": { "id": "401872992", "date": "2026-10-11T20:25Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "3673", "fullName": "Lumen Field", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Seattle", "state": "WA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "San Francisco 49ers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "26", "home_name": "Seattle Seahawks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "production_scenario": "Confirmed-absence separate passing/rushing human sensitivity; conditional cases retained separately", "scenario_choice_by_team": [ { "team": "San Francisco 49ers", "confirmed_absences": [ "Ricky Pearsall", "Christian Kirk" ], "conditional_players": [ "Demarcus Robinson" ], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. Passing and rushing are conditionally treated as distinct workload pathways, not empirically independent effects. Current statistical baseline retained, including prior-absence history. All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." }, { "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "confirmed_absences": [ "Jadarian Price", "Zach Charbonnet" ], "conditional_players": [ "George Holani" ], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. Passing and rushing are conditionally treated as distinct workload pathways, not empirically independent effects. Current statistical baseline retained, including prior-absence history. All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." } ], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 21.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.864705882352943, 21.270588235294117 ], "home_margin": 2.4058823529411733, "total": 40.135294117647064, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 18.864705882352943, 24.270588235294117 ], "home_selection": [ 21.864705882352943, 21.270588235294117 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 37.135294117647064, "under_selection_total": 43.135294117647064, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.75675794925454, 22.912942357302587 ], "home_margin": 6.156184408048048, "total": 39.669700306557125, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 16.75675794925454, 25.912942357302587 ], "home_selection": [ 19.75675794925454, 22.912942357302587 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 36.669700306557125, "under_selection_total": 42.669700306557125, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 0.5710528437175313, "total": 41.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_selection": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 38.279438057070614, "under_selection_total": 44.279438057070614, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, -3 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "home_margin": 0.5710528437175313, "total": 41.279438057070614, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 20.35419260667654, 23.925245450394073 ], "home_selection": [ 23.35419260667654, 20.925245450394073 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 38.279438057070614, "under_selection_total": 44.279438057070614, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } } }, "risk_register": [ { "team": "San Francisco 49ers", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Demarcus Robinson" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "San Francisco 49ers", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "George Holani" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Seattle Seahawks", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json event_reviews matching event_id; every team joint_scenario branch and justified sensitivity remains applicable. Combine opposing team scenario adjustments independently; no automatic opponent decrement.", "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Official current availability/depth, reference roles and replacement pools reconciled for both teams; see scenario_choice_by_team and original ledger.", "Uncle Sibursam": "Separate2024/25/26 team-split opportunities support role review; small current sample, prior absence incorporation and missing advanced measures disclosed.", "Gideon Marsh": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "other_four_desks": "Parent agents own their separate schedule, model, matchup/conditions and market synthesis; no independent review falsely attributed here." } }, { "event_id": "401872993", "identity": { "id": "401872993", "date": "2026-10-12T00:20Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NFL", "venue": { "id": "5348", "fullName": "Mercedes-Benz Stadium", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Atlanta", "state": "GA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "33", "away_name": "Baltimore Ravens", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "1", "home_name": "Atlanta Falcons", "home_score": 0.0 }, "production_scenario": "Confirmed-absence separate passing/rushing human sensitivity; conditional cases retained separately", "scenario_choice_by_team": [ { "team": "Baltimore Ravens", "confirmed_absences": [ "Lamar Jackson" ], "conditional_players": [ "Zay Flowers" ], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. Passing and rushing are conditionally treated as distinct workload pathways, not empirically independent effects. Current statistical baseline retained, including prior-absence history. All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." }, { "team": "Atlanta Falcons", "confirmed_absences": [], "conditional_players": [], "choice": "Confirmed-absence separate passing and rushing opportunity sensitivity", "reason": "At most one human judgment per represented passing/rushing opportunity pathway; same-drive receiver losses and same-backfield replacement chains overlap. Passing and rushing are conditionally treated as distinct workload pathways, not empirically independent effects. Current statistical baseline retained, including prior-absence history. All alternative justified overlap/conditional endpoints remain mandatory checks." } ], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "home_margin": 2.394117647058824, "total": 44.811764705882354, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 21.208823529411767, 26.60294117647059 ], "home_selection": [ 24.208823529411767, 23.60294117647059 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 41.811764705882354, "under_selection_total": 47.811764705882354, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "home_margin": 0.8253717794804274, "total": 45.61436071514904, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 22.394494467834306, 26.219866247314734 ], "home_selection": [ 25.394494467834306, 23.219866247314734 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 42.61436071514904, "under_selection_total": 48.61436071514904, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 21.444524367718103, 27.799408351348273 ], "home_selection": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 43.24393271906638, "under_selection_total": 49.24393271906638, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "home_margin": 3.3548839836301703, "total": 46.24393271906638, "gate": "PASS / NOT LIVE pending immutable parent freeze and price/risk gates", "other_adjustments": [], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 21.444524367718103, 27.799408351348273 ], "home_selection": [ 24.444524367718103, 24.799408351348273 ], "assumption": "Registered3point adverse scenario applied to selected team opponent offense, separate from availability overlay; not forecast uncertainty interval." }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 43.24393271906638, "under_selection_total": 49.24393271906638, "assumption": "Registered3point total adverse direction, not calibrated interval." } } }, "risk_register": [ { "team": "Baltimore Ravens", "risk": "Conditional availability/material-role allocation", "players": [ "Zay Flowers" ], "handling": "Do not declare OUT; retain every available/unavailable branch and require same-side gate robustness." }, { "team": "Baltimore Ravens", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." }, { "team": "Atlanta Falcons", "risk": "Unknown incremental personnel conversion and allocation", "handling": "Exact future routes/touches unavailable. Retain registered baseline plus explicit human assumptions; no calibrated injury coefficient or opponent point change inferred." } ], "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json event_reviews matching event_id; every team joint_scenario branch and justified sensitivity remains applicable. Combine opposing team scenario adjustments independently; no automatic opponent decrement.", "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Official current availability/depth, reference roles and replacement pools reconciled for both teams; see scenario_choice_by_team and original ledger.", "Uncle Sibursam": "Separate2024/25/26 team-split opportunities support role review; small current sample, prior absence incorporation and missing advanced measures disclosed.", "Gideon Marsh": "Independent13NFL arithmetic PASS; all four scores use same approved availability assumption; ON/OFF arithmetic identical. Risk/provisional calibration and postprice tests remain mandatory.", "other_four_desks": "Parent agents own their separate schedule, model, matchup/conditions and market synthesis; no independent review falsely attributed here." } } ], "global_risks": [ "No calibrated selected-market or exact-score probabilities supplied.", "Conditional active statuses must be rechecked before live use; a new finding after freeze is a new version, never silently fitted to a price.", "Every alternative scenario must be evaluated using the same frozen market quote set; failure makes adjusted production PASS, not the opposite bet." ] } }