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Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ] }, { "teamId": "142", "side": "home", "player": "Ahmad Hardy", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.52558930729159, 30.403705659038902 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.52558930729159, 27.403705659038902 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Terry Bussey", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Mario Craver", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "142", "side": "home", "player": "Ahmad Hardy", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.333333333333336, "pa": 21.916666666666668, "margin": 14.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752678", "401752694", "401752707", "401752724", "401752730", "401752737", "401752739", "401752748", "401752763", "401752772", "401752781", "401752792" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 18.6, "margin": 13.2, "event_ids": [ "401856668", "401856683", "401856694", "401856702", "401856711" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.166666666666664, "pa": 19.416666666666668, "margin": 12.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752674", "401752689", "401752702", "401752713", "401752721", "401752734", "401752740", "401752752", "401752763", "401752770", "401752778", "401752783" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.6, "pa": 20, "margin": 17.6, "event_ids": [ "401856663", "401856678", "401856689", "401856703", "401856708" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 27.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.9, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2733333333333331, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Terry Bussey", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Mario Craver", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "245", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Bussey third in receiving yards with 7 catches/92 yards; Craver second with 23/235. Distinct receiver opportunities support separate isolated scenarios. Joint -6 is the user's additive human assumption for two distinct receivers, not an estimated six-point statistical loss; redistributed targets can overlap and the -3 common-passing sensitivity is also retained.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "142", "side": "home", "player": "Ahmad Hardy", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.333333333333336, "pa": 21.916666666666668, "margin": 14.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752678", "401752694", "401752707", "401752724", "401752730", "401752737", "401752739", "401752748", "401752763", "401752772", "401752781", "401752792" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 18.6, "margin": 13.2, "event_ids": [ "401856668", "401856683", "401856694", "401856702", "401856711" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.166666666666664, "pa": 19.416666666666668, "margin": 12.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752674", "401752689", "401752702", "401752713", "401752721", "401752734", "401752740", "401752752", "401752763", "401752770", "401752778", "401752783" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.6, "pa": 20, "margin": 17.6, "event_ids": [ "401856663", "401856678", "401856689", "401856703", "401856708" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 27.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.9, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2733333333333331, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 26.614166666666666, 29.344166666666666 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.614166666666666, 26.344166666666666 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 6.0, 27.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604260", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.593002+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604260", "official_event_id": 6604260, "scores": [ 6, 27 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.593002+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604260", "official_event_id": 6604260, "scores": [ 6, 27 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.593002+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401856823", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401856823", "away": "Arizona Wildcats", "home": "West Virginia Mountaineers", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-3.5 (-112) / +3.5 (-108)", "ml": "-175 / +145", "total": "60.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.0 / 22.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/arizona-wildcats-west-virginia-mountaineers-401856823-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856823", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.639053+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.583333333333336, 18.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32.4, 16.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.75, 30.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 37.4, 28.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.583333333333336, "pa": 18.916666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401756849", "401756879", "401756888", "401756904", "401756910", "401756916", "401756925", "401756937", "401756943", "401756951", "401756954", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856773", "401856810", "401856793", "401856804", "401856820" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.75, "pa": 30.833333333333332, "margin": -9.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401756883", "401754638", "401756899", "401756908", "401756909", "401756928", "401756935", "401756938", "401756947", "401756948", "401756968" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.4, "pa": 28.8, "margin": 8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401856791", "401856802", "401856881", "401856822" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.6, 27 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.583333333333336, "pa": 18.916666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401756849", "401756879", "401756888", "401756904", "401756910", "401756916", "401756925", "401756937", "401756943", "401756951", "401756954", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856773", "401856810", "401856793", "401856804", "401856820" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.75, "pa": 30.833333333333332, "margin": -9.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401756883", "401754638", "401756899", "401756908", "401756909", "401756928", "401756935", "401756938", "401756947", "401756948", "401756968" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.4, "pa": 28.8, "margin": 8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401856791", "401856802", "401856881", "401856822" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.6, 27 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401856823", "away": "Arizona Wildcats", "home": "West Virginia Mountaineers", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Arizona Wildcats 52, West Virginia Mountaineers 31", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-3.5 (-112) / +3.5 (-108)", "ml": "-175 / +145", "total": "60.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.0 / 22.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/arizona-wildcats-west-virginia-mountaineers-401856823-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856823", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.639053+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.454545454545453, 24.113636363636363 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.583333333333336, 18.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32.4, 16.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.75, 30.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 37.4, 28.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.279557151718798, 28.85627012609074 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.583333333333336, "pa": 18.916666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401756849", "401756879", "401756888", "401756904", "401756910", "401756916", "401756925", "401756937", "401756943", "401756951", "401756954", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856773", "401856810", "401856793", "401856804", "401856820" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.75, "pa": 30.833333333333332, "margin": -9.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401756883", "401754638", "401756899", "401756908", "401756909", "401756928", "401756935", "401756938", "401756947", "401756948", "401756968" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.4, "pa": 28.8, "margin": 8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401856791", "401856802", "401856881", "401856822" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.6, 27 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Giovanni Richardson", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Chris Hunter III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "12", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Richardson 16/187 and Hunter 13/155 are separate substantial receiver roles (29 receptions combined). Joint -6 is user human-judgment scenario for their separate target opportunities, with shared passing-drive uncertainty and a -3 overlap sensitivity retained. Rusk 6/86 and Mahdi 12 carries require role caution; no extra deduction merely because their positions are covered.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.583333333333336, "pa": 18.916666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401756849", "401756879", "401756888", "401756904", "401756910", "401756916", "401756925", "401756937", "401756943", "401756951", "401756954", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856773", "401856810", "401856793", "401856804", "401856820" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.75, "pa": 30.833333333333332, "margin": -9.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401756883", "401754638", "401756899", "401756908", "401756909", "401756928", "401756935", "401756938", "401756947", "401756948", "401756968" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.4, "pa": 28.8, "margin": 8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401856791", "401856802", "401856881", "401856822" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.708333333333336, 20.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.6, 27 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 34.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.149166666666666, 22.171666666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 52.0, 31.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640717", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.596315+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640717", "official_event_id": 6640717, "scores": [ 52, 31 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.596315+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640717", "official_event_id": 6640717, "scores": [ 52, 31 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.596315+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401856824", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401856824", "away": "UCF Knights", "home": "Oklahoma State Cowboys", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10.5 (-108) / -10.5 (-112)", "ml": "+350 / -455", "total": "53.5; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 26.0 / 23.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/ucf-knights-oklahoma-state-cowboys-401856824-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856824", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.671053+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.2, 22.88181818181818 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.333333333333332, 23.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 32.4, 17.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 14.166666666666666, 33.333333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 37.25, 19.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.24620941321598, 25.96729855180653 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.333333333333332, "pa": 23.583333333333332, "margin": 0.75, "event_ids": [ "401756848", "401756886", "401754640", "401756906", "401756915", "401756917", "401756928", "401756936", "401756946", "401756953", "401756959", "401756963" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 17.6, "margin": 14.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401856790", "401856800", "401856815", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.166666666666666, "pa": 33.333333333333336, "margin": -19.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401752824", "401756900", "401756907", "401756910", "401756920", "401756926", "401756933", "401756940", "401756952", "401756959", "401756966" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 37.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 17.5, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401856782", "401856803", "401856881" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.833333333333336, 18.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.075, 27.425 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.721666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2116", "side": "away", "player": "Alonza Barnett III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.333333333333332, "pa": 23.583333333333332, "margin": 0.75, "event_ids": [ "401756848", "401756886", "401754640", "401756906", "401756915", "401756917", "401756928", "401756936", "401756946", "401756953", "401756959", "401756963" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 17.6, "margin": 14.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401856790", "401856800", "401856815", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.166666666666666, "pa": 33.333333333333336, "margin": -19.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401752824", "401756900", "401756907", "401756910", "401756920", "401756926", "401756933", "401756940", "401756952", "401756959", "401756966" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 37.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 17.5, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401856782", "401856803", "401856881" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.833333333333336, 18.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.075, 27.425 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.721666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 29.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 26.175833333333333, 22.92833333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 19.25, 24.5 ], "current_rates": [ 24, 19.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 35.083333333333336, 24.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 38.4, 13.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "isolated_score": [ 14.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 14.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.25, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -5.25, "event_ids": [ "401754523", "401754527", "401754639", "401754640", "401754552", "401754371", "401754573", "401754575", "401754588", "401754596", "401754600", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24, "pa": 19.5, "margin": 4.5, "event_ids": [ "401856766", "401858218", "401858229", "401858250" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": 10.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401754529", "401754638", "401754547", "401754550", "401754559", "401754568", "401754574", "401754582", "401754597", "401754601", "401754611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 25, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401856790", "401858225", "401858236", "401858245" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5916666666666672, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.25, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -5.25, "event_ids": [ "401754523", "401754527", "401754639", "401754640", "401754552", "401754371", "401754573", "401754575", "401754588", "401754596", "401754600", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24, "pa": 19.5, "margin": 4.5, "event_ids": [ "401856766", "401858218", "401858229", "401858250" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": 10.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401754529", "401754638", "401754547", "401754550", "401754559", "401754568", "401754574", "401754582", "401754597", "401754601", "401754611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 25, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401856790", "401858225", "401858236", "401858245" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5916666666666672, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "adjustedScore": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858256", "away": "North Carolina Tar Heels", "home": "Pittsburgh Panthers", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "North Carolina Tar Heels 21, Pittsburgh Panthers 17", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+3.5 (-108) / -3.5 (-112)", "ml": "+154 / -185", "total": "47.5; O -102 / U -118", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 17.0 / 31.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/north-carolina-tar-heels-pittsburgh-panthers-401858256-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858256", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.680681+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 30.295454545454547 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.66590909090909, 27.295454545454547 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 19.25, 24.5 ], "current_rates": [ 24, 19.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 35.083333333333336, 24.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 38.4, 13.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "isolated_score": [ 14.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 14.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 32.5558930353542 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.657792984941608, 29.555893035354202 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.25, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -5.25, "event_ids": [ "401754523", "401754527", "401754639", "401754640", "401754552", "401754371", "401754573", "401754575", "401754588", "401754596", "401754600", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24, "pa": 19.5, "margin": 4.5, "event_ids": [ "401856766", "401858218", "401858229", "401858250" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": 10.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401754529", "401754638", "401754547", "401754550", "401754559", "401754568", "401754574", "401754582", "401754597", "401754601", "401754611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 25, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401856790", "401858225", "401858236", "401858245" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5916666666666672, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "153", "side": "away", "player": "Jordan Shipp", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 13.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 13.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] }, { "teamId": "221", "side": "home", "player": "Mason Heintschel", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.25, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -5.25, "event_ids": [ "401754523", "401754527", "401754639", "401754640", "401754552", "401754371", "401754573", "401754575", "401754588", "401754596", "401754600", "401754612" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24, "pa": 19.5, "margin": 4.5, "event_ids": [ "401856766", "401858218", "401858229", "401858250" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": 10.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401754529", "401754638", "401754547", "401754550", "401754559", "401754568", "401754574", "401754582", "401754597", "401754601", "401754611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 25, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401856790", "401858225", "401858236", "401858245" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.083333333333336, 29.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 18.7, 28.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5916666666666672, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 16.799999999999997, 34.4625 ], "adjustedScore": [ 16.799999999999997, 31.4625 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 21.0, 17.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640402", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.600857+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640402", "official_event_id": 6640402, "scores": [ 21, 17 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.600857+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640402", "official_event_id": 6640402, "scores": [ 21, 17 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.600857+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401858260", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858260", "away": "Wake Forest Demon Deacons", "home": "NC State Wolfpack", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-3.5 (+100) / +3.5 (-120)", "ml": "-166 / +140", "total": "57.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 30.0 / 25.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/wake-forest-demon-deacons-nc-state-wolfpack-401858260-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858260", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.643559+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 22.43181818181818 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 28.43181818181818 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.568181818181817, 25.43181818181818 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.833333333333332, 21.5 ], "current_rates": [ 36.6, 23 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 30.166666666666668, 28.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.8, 25.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 27.0432350975169 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 28.726666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 25.726666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.10666666666667, 22.726666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Jayden Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ] }, { "teamId": "152", "side": "home", "player": "Joshisa Trader", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 33.0432350975169 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.877911250519595, 30.0432350975169 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 41.92307692307692, 10.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 44.2, 10.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.25, 23 ], "current_rates": [ 43.6, 14.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.92307692307692, "pa": 10.846153846153847, "margin": 31.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401752812", "401752836", "401752843", "401752853", "401752870", "401752878", "401752885", "401752887", "401752893", "401752901", "401752924", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.2, "pa": 10.8, "margin": 33.400000000000006, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 23, "margin": 6.25, "event_ids": [ "401752796", "401752810", "401752828", "401752846", "401752860", "401752867", "401752872", "401752883", "401752892", "401752895", "401752908", "401752916" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 14.2, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.8826923076923068, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.92307692307692, "pa": 10.846153846153847, "margin": 31.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401752812", "401752836", "401752843", "401752853", "401752870", "401752878", "401752885", "401752887", "401752893", "401752901", "401752924", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.2, "pa": 10.8, "margin": 33.400000000000006, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 23, "margin": 6.25, "event_ids": [ "401752796", "401752810", "401752828", "401752846", "401752860", "401752867", "401752872", "401752883", "401752892", "401752895", "401752908", "401752916" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 14.2, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.8826923076923068, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 41.92307692307692, 10.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 44.2, 10.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.25, 23 ], "current_rates": [ 43.6, 14.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.92307692307692, "pa": 10.846153846153847, "margin": 31.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401752812", "401752836", "401752843", "401752853", "401752870", "401752878", "401752885", "401752887", "401752893", "401752901", "401752924", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.2, "pa": 10.8, "margin": 33.400000000000006, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 23, "margin": 6.25, "event_ids": [ "401752796", "401752810", "401752828", "401752846", "401752860", "401752867", "401752872", "401752883", "401752892", "401752895", "401752908", "401752916" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 14.2, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.8826923076923068, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.92307692307692, "pa": 10.846153846153847, "margin": 31.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401752812", "401752836", "401752843", "401752853", "401752870", "401752878", "401752885", "401752887", "401752893", "401752901", "401752924", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.2, "pa": 10.8, "margin": 33.400000000000006, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401858439", "401858449", "401858461", "401858477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 23, "margin": 6.25, "event_ids": [ "401752796", "401752810", "401752828", "401752846", "401752860", "401752867", "401752872", "401752883", "401752892", "401752895", "401752908", "401752916" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 43.6, "pa": 14.2, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401858441", "401858452", "401858464", "401858475" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.46153846153846, 20.048076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.200000000000003, 27.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.8826923076923068, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.71346153846154, 22.241346153846155 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 20.0, 17.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603950", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.605152+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603950", "official_event_id": 6603950, "scores": [ 20, 17 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.605152+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603950", "official_event_id": 6603950, "scores": [ 20, 17 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.605152+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401862795", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401862795", "away": "Tulane Green Wave", "home": "Army Black Knights", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+3.5 (-112) / -3.5 (-108)", "ml": "+140 / -166", "total": "48.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 21.0 / 28.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/tulane-green-wave-army-black-knights-401862795-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862795", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.919157+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 29.076923076923077, 22.615384615384617 ], "current_rates": [ 18.75, 23.25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 22.416666666666668, 22.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 33.25, 19.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17, 27.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 29.076923076923077, "pa": 22.615384615384617, "margin": 6.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401761601", "401754534", "401752711", "401762474", "401762480", "401762488", "401762443", "401762501", "401762509", "401762515", "401762518", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 23.25, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401864575", "401856792", "401862784" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.416666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762432", "401756882", "401762469", "401762471", "401762476", "401762483", "401762488", "401760401", "401762503", "401762512", "401762441", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 13.5, "event_ids": [ "401862701", "401862702", "401862779", "401869842" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "current_matchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1871794871794876, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 29.076923076923077, "pa": 22.615384615384617, "margin": 6.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401761601", "401754534", "401752711", "401762474", "401762480", "401762488", "401762443", "401762501", "401762509", "401762515", "401762518", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 23.25, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401864575", "401856792", "401862784" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.416666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762432", "401756882", "401762469", "401762471", "401762476", "401762483", "401762488", "401760401", "401762503", "401762512", "401762441", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 13.5, "event_ids": [ "401862701", "401862702", "401862779", "401869842" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "current_matchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1871794871794876, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "adjustedScore": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401862795", "away": "Tulane Green Wave", "home": "Army Black Knights", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Tulane Green Wave 17, Army Black Knights 20", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+3.5 (-112) / -3.5 (-108)", "ml": "+140 / -166", "total": "48.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 21.0 / 28.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/tulane-green-wave-army-black-knights-401862795-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862795", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.919157+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.29807692307692, 25.559615384615384 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 29.076923076923077, 22.615384615384617 ], "current_rates": [ 18.75, 23.25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 22.416666666666668, 22.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 33.25, 19.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.840336546143117, 27.609145943435514 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17, 27.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 29.076923076923077, "pa": 22.615384615384617, "margin": 6.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401761601", "401754534", "401752711", "401762474", "401762480", "401762488", "401762443", "401762501", "401762509", "401762515", "401762518", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 23.25, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401864575", "401856792", "401862784" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.416666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762432", "401756882", "401762469", "401762471", "401762476", "401762483", "401762488", "401760401", "401762503", "401762512", "401762441", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 13.5, "event_ids": [ "401862701", "401862702", "401862779", "401869842" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "current_matchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1871794871794876, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 29.076923076923077, "pa": 22.615384615384617, "margin": 6.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401761601", "401754534", "401752711", "401762474", "401762480", "401762488", "401762443", "401762501", "401762509", "401762515", "401762518", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 23.25, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401864575", "401856792", "401862784" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.416666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762432", "401756882", "401762469", "401762471", "401762476", "401762483", "401762488", "401760401", "401762503", "401762512", "401762441", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 19.75, "margin": 13.5, "event_ids": [ "401862701", "401862702", "401862779", "401869842" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.580128205128204, 22.516025641025642 ], "current_matchup": [ 19.25, 28.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1871794871794876, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "adjustedScore": [ 21.227884615384614, 28.07019230769231 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 17.0, 20.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603728", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.607085+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603728", "official_event_id": 6603728, "scores": [ 17, 20 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.607085+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603728", "official_event_id": 6603728, "scores": [ 17, 20 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.607085+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401866436", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866436", "away": "Sacramento State Hornets", "home": "Bowling Green Falcons", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+8.5 (-112) / -8.5 (-108)", "ml": "+260 / -325", "total": "43.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 29.5 / 21.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/sacramento-state-hornets-bowling-green-falcons-401866436-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866436", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.878366+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 33.75, 26.25 ], "current_rates": [ 17.6, 28.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.5, 24.25 ], "current_rates": [ 11.4, 33 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401767130", "401760365", "401767131", "401767132", "401767073", "401767133", "401767123", "401767101", "401767066", "401767129", "401767096", "401767134" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 28.6, "margin": -11, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401866411", "401860883", "401864507", "401866429" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 24.25, "margin": -3.75, "event_ids": [ "401762790", "401756880", "401757256", "401754642", "401762825", "401762835", "401762839", "401762846", "401762849", "401762855", "401762862", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 11.4, "pa": 33, "margin": -21.6, "event_ids": [ "401866410", "401858441", "401856798", "401862785", "401866477" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.3, 20 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.185, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401767130", "401760365", "401767131", "401767132", "401767073", "401767133", "401767123", "401767101", "401767066", "401767129", "401767096", "401767134" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 28.6, "margin": -11, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401866411", "401860883", "401864507", "401866429" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 24.25, "margin": -3.75, "event_ids": [ "401762790", "401756880", "401757256", "401754642", "401762825", "401762835", "401762839", "401762846", "401762849", "401762855", "401762862", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 11.4, "pa": 33, "margin": -21.6, "event_ids": [ "401866410", "401858441", "401856798", "401862785", "401866477" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.3, 20 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.185, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "adjustedScore": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866436", "away": "Sacramento State Hornets", "home": "Bowling Green Falcons", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Sacramento State Hornets 10, Bowling Green Falcons 38", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+8.5 (-112) / -8.5 (-108)", "ml": "+260 / -325", "total": "43.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 29.5 / 21.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/sacramento-state-hornets-bowling-green-falcons-401866436-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866436", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.878366+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.568181818181817, 22.59090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 33.75, 26.25 ], "current_rates": [ 17.6, 28.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.5, 24.25 ], "current_rates": [ 11.4, 33 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.59576064090138, 27.477125418332175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 27.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 27.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401767130", "401760365", "401767131", "401767132", "401767073", "401767133", "401767123", "401767101", "401767066", "401767129", "401767096", "401767134" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 28.6, "margin": -11, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401866411", "401860883", "401864507", "401866429" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 24.25, "margin": -3.75, "event_ids": [ "401762790", "401756880", "401757256", "401754642", "401762825", "401762835", "401762839", "401762846", "401762849", "401762855", "401762862", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 11.4, "pa": 33, "margin": -21.6, "event_ids": [ "401866410", "401858441", "401856798", "401862785", "401866477" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.3, 20 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.185, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401767130", "401760365", "401767131", "401767132", "401767073", "401767133", "401767123", "401767101", "401767066", "401767129", "401767096", "401767134" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 28.6, "margin": -11, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401866411", "401860883", "401864507", "401866429" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 24.25, "margin": -3.75, "event_ids": [ "401762790", "401756880", "401757256", "401754642", "401762825", "401762835", "401762839", "401762846", "401762849", "401762855", "401762862", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 11.4, "pa": 33, "margin": -21.6, "event_ids": [ "401866410", "401858441", "401856798", "401862785", "401866477" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29, 23.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.3, 20 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.185, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "adjustedScore": [ 29.334999999999997, 21.0025 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 10.0, 38.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603976", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.610412+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603976", "official_event_id": 6603976, "scores": [ 10, 38 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.610412+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603976", "official_event_id": 6603976, "scores": [ 10, 38 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.610412+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401866658", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866658", "away": "New Hampshire Wildcats", "home": "North Carolina A&T Aggies", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-5.5 (-113) / +5.5 (-110)", "ml": "-221 / +174", "total": "47.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 32.5 / 22.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/new-hampshire-wildcats-north-carolina-a-t-aggies-401866658-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866658", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.915140+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.107371794871796, 24.419871794871796 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.107371794871796, 24.419871794871796 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.107371794871796, 24.419871794871796 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.846153846153847, 22.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 33.833333333333336 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 20.5, 43.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 17.5, 32.833333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.706848226759874, 27.04832741242569 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.706848226759874, 27.04832741242569 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.706848226759874, 27.04832741242569 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 24.846153846153847, "pa": 22.846153846153847, "margin": 2, "event_ids": [ "401767265", "401767266", "401762818", "401767267", "401767268", "401767269", "401767270", "401767144", "401767271", "401767262", "401767138", "401767195", "401836116" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -15.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401866616", "401858208", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 43.583333333333336, "margin": -23.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401756886", "401767181", "401767272", "401767191", "401767273", "401767274", "401767145", "401767275", "401767316", "401767263", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 32.833333333333336, "margin": -15.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.4750000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 24.846153846153847, "pa": 22.846153846153847, "margin": 2, "event_ids": [ "401767265", "401767266", "401762818", "401767267", "401767268", "401767269", "401767270", "401767144", "401767271", "401767262", "401767138", "401767195", "401836116" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -15.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401866616", "401858208", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 43.583333333333336, "margin": -23.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401756886", "401767181", "401767272", "401767191", "401767273", "401767274", "401767145", "401767275", "401767316", "401767263", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 32.833333333333336, "margin": -15.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.4750000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "adjustedScore": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866658", "away": "New Hampshire Wildcats", "home": "North Carolina A&T Aggies", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "New Hampshire Wildcats 27, North Carolina A&T Aggies 30", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-5.5 (-113) / +5.5 (-110)", "ml": "-221 / +174", "total": "47.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 32.5 / 22.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/new-hampshire-wildcats-north-carolina-a-t-aggies-401866658-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866658", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.915140+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.107371794871796, 24.419871794871796 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.107371794871796, 24.419871794871796 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.107371794871796, 24.419871794871796 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.846153846153847, 22.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 33.833333333333336 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 20.5, 43.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 17.5, 32.833333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.706848226759874, 27.04832741242569 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.706848226759874, 27.04832741242569 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.706848226759874, 27.04832741242569 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 24.846153846153847, "pa": 22.846153846153847, "margin": 2, "event_ids": [ "401767265", "401767266", "401762818", "401767267", "401767268", "401767269", "401767270", "401767144", "401767271", "401767262", "401767138", "401767195", "401836116" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -15.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401866616", "401858208", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 43.583333333333336, "margin": -23.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401756886", "401767181", "401767272", "401767191", "401767273", "401767274", "401767145", "401767275", "401767316", "401767263", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 32.833333333333336, "margin": -15.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.4750000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 24.846153846153847, "pa": 22.846153846153847, "margin": 2, "event_ids": [ "401767265", "401767266", "401762818", "401767267", "401767268", "401767269", "401767270", "401767144", "401767271", "401767262", "401767138", "401767195", "401836116" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -15.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401866616", "401858208", "401866631", "401866639", "401866642", "401866650" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 43.583333333333336, "margin": -23.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401756886", "401767181", "401767272", "401767191", "401767273", "401767274", "401767145", "401767275", "401767316", "401767263", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 32.833333333333336, "margin": -15.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401866623", "401866633", "401866636", "401866644", "401866653" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.21474358974359, 21.673076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.4750000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "adjustedScore": [ 32.3323717948718, 22.694871794871794 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 27.0, 30.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604808", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.611917+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604808", "official_event_id": 6604808, "scores": [ 27, 30 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.611917+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604808", "official_event_id": 6604808, "scores": [ 27, 30 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.611917+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401866660", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866660", "away": "Stonehill Skyhawks", "home": "Sacred Heart Pioneers", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+8.5 (-110) / -8.5 (-112)", "ml": "+265 / -352", "total": "43.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 19.0 / 28.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/stonehill-skyhawks-sacred-heart-pioneers-401866660-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866660", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.863275+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.795454545454547, 25.704545454545453 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 15.083333333333334, 23.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 16.6, 28 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.583333333333332, 26.25 ], "current_rates": [ 19.8, 24.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.083333333333334, "pa": 23.083333333333332, "margin": -7.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767771", "401767190", "401767772", "401767758", "401767751", "401767773", "401767774", "401767765", "401767747", "401767775", "401767770" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.6, "pa": 28, "margin": -11.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401867924", "401866631", "401866424", "401866428" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.583333333333332, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 2.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767658", "401767659", "401767405", "401767343", "401767660", "401767353", "401767100", "401767661", "401767662", "401767663", "401767338" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 24.2, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866624", "401866420", "401866637", "401866642", "401866652" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.7333333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.083333333333334, "pa": 23.083333333333332, "margin": -7.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767771", "401767190", "401767772", "401767758", "401767751", "401767773", "401767774", "401767765", "401767747", "401767775", "401767770" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.6, "pa": 28, "margin": -11.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401867924", "401866631", "401866424", "401866428" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.583333333333332, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 2.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767658", "401767659", "401767405", "401767343", "401767660", "401767353", "401767100", "401767661", "401767662", "401767663", "401767338" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 24.2, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866624", "401866420", "401866637", "401866642", "401866652" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.7333333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "adjustedScore": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 15.083333333333334, 23.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 16.6, 28 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.583333333333332, 26.25 ], "current_rates": [ 19.8, 24.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.879576355922412, 29.671756895765892 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.083333333333334, "pa": 23.083333333333332, "margin": -7.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767771", "401767190", "401767772", "401767758", "401767751", "401767773", "401767774", "401767765", "401767747", "401767775", "401767770" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.6, "pa": 28, "margin": -11.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401867924", "401866631", "401866424", "401866428" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.583333333333332, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 2.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767658", "401767659", "401767405", "401767343", "401767660", "401767353", "401767100", "401767661", "401767662", "401767663", "401767338" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 24.2, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866624", "401866420", "401866637", "401866642", "401866652" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.7333333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.083333333333334, "pa": 23.083333333333332, "margin": -7.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767771", "401767190", "401767772", "401767758", "401767751", "401767773", "401767774", "401767765", "401767747", "401767775", "401767770" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.6, "pa": 28, "margin": -11.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401867924", "401866631", "401866424", "401866428" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.583333333333332, "pa": 26.25, "margin": 2.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767657", "401767658", "401767659", "401767405", "401767343", "401767660", "401767353", "401767100", "401767661", "401767662", "401767663", "401767338" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 24.2, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401866624", "401866420", "401866637", "401866642", "401866652" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.4, 23.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.7333333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "adjustedScore": [ 18.799999999999997, 28.1 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.5, 30.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 22, 22.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 26.5, 27 ], "current_rates": [ 12.333333333333334, 12.333333333333334 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757223", "401762816", "401767030", "401767031", "401767032", "401767033", "401767034", "401767035", "401767136", "401767137", "401767138", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22, "pa": 22.4, "margin": -0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401862701", "401866629", "401866638", "401866653" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 27, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401767551", "401767552", "401767320", "401767034", "401767553", "401767554", "401767555", "401767676", "401767677", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 12.333333333333334, "margin": 0, "event_ids": [ "401867805", "401867806", "401866654" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.75, 28.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 17.366666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7733333333333331, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "adjustedScore": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.5, 30.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 22, 22.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 26.5, 27 ], "current_rates": [ 12.333333333333334, 12.333333333333334 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.385725176976333, 30.17530325361801 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.385725176976333, 30.17530325361801 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.385725176976333, 30.17530325361801 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757223", "401762816", "401767030", "401767031", "401767032", "401767033", "401767034", "401767035", "401767136", "401767137", "401767138", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22, "pa": 22.4, "margin": -0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401862701", "401866629", "401866638", "401866653" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 27, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401767551", "401767552", "401767320", "401767034", "401767553", "401767554", "401767555", "401767676", "401767677", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 12.333333333333334, "margin": 0, "event_ids": [ "401867805", "401867806", "401866654" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.75, 28.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 17.366666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7733333333333331, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757223", "401762816", "401767030", "401767031", "401767032", "401767033", "401767034", "401767035", "401767136", "401767137", "401767138", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22, "pa": 22.4, "margin": -0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401866619", "401862701", "401866629", "401866638", "401866653" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 27, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401767551", "401767552", "401767320", "401767034", "401767553", "401767554", "401767555", "401767676", "401767677", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 12.333333333333334, "margin": 0, "event_ids": [ "401867805", "401867806", "401866654" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.75, 28.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 17.366666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7733333333333331, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "adjustedScore": [ 20.185000000000002, 25.165 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 13.0, 28.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604647", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.616453+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604647", "official_event_id": 6604647, "scores": [ 13, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.616453+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604647", "official_event_id": 6604647, "scores": [ 13, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.616453+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867836", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867836", "away": "Dartmouth Big Green", "home": "Yale Bulldogs", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+6 (-112) / -6 (-110)", "ml": "+173 / -220", "total": "52.5; O -110 / U -113", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 23.0 / 29.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/dartmouth-big-green-yale-bulldogs-401867836-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867836", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:36.953536+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.022222222222226, 27.016666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.022222222222226, 27.016666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.022222222222226, 27.016666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 26.4, 21.3 ], "current_rates": [ 20.666666666666668, 21.666666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 29.333333333333332, 19.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 34.666666666666664, 30 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.35615834541282, 31.774319904587273 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.35615834541282, 31.774319904587273 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.35615834541282, 31.774319904587273 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.3, "margin": 5.099999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767267", "401767697", "401767698", "401767699", "401767700", "401767701", "401767702", "401767703", "401767695", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 21.666666666666668, "margin": -1, "event_ids": [ "401867834", "401866647", "401867835" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 19.583333333333332, "margin": 9.75, "event_ids": [ "401767726", "401767689", "401767735", "401767699", "401767773", "401788997", "401767685", "401767676", "401788998", "401767708", "401833975", "401836196" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 34.666666666666664, "pa": 30, "margin": 4.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868023", "401867827", "401870840" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.991666666666667, 25.316666666666666 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.333333333333336, 28.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.0316666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.3, "margin": 5.099999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767267", "401767697", "401767698", "401767699", "401767700", "401767701", "401767702", "401767703", "401767695", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 21.666666666666668, "margin": -1, "event_ids": [ "401867834", "401866647", "401867835" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 19.583333333333332, "margin": 9.75, "event_ids": [ "401767726", "401767689", "401767735", "401767699", "401767773", "401788997", "401767685", "401767676", "401788998", "401767708", "401833975", "401836196" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 34.666666666666664, "pa": 30, "margin": 4.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868023", "401867827", "401870840" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.991666666666667, 25.316666666666666 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.333333333333336, 28.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.0316666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 26.4, 21.3 ], "current_rates": [ 20.666666666666668, 21.666666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 29.333333333333332, 19.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 34.666666666666664, 30 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.3, "margin": 5.099999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767267", "401767697", "401767698", "401767699", "401767700", "401767701", "401767702", "401767703", "401767695", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 21.666666666666668, "margin": -1, "event_ids": [ "401867834", "401866647", "401867835" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 19.583333333333332, "margin": 9.75, "event_ids": [ "401767726", "401767689", "401767735", "401767699", "401767773", "401788997", "401767685", "401767676", "401788998", "401767708", "401833975", "401836196" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 34.666666666666664, "pa": 30, "margin": 4.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868023", "401867827", "401870840" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.991666666666667, 25.316666666666666 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.333333333333336, 28.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.0316666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.3, "margin": 5.099999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767267", "401767697", "401767698", "401767699", "401767700", "401767701", "401767702", "401767703", "401767695", "401767678" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 21.666666666666668, "margin": -1, "event_ids": [ "401867834", "401866647", "401867835" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 19.583333333333332, "margin": 9.75, "event_ids": [ "401767726", "401767689", "401767735", "401767699", "401767773", "401788997", "401767685", "401767676", "401788998", "401767708", "401833975", "401836196" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 34.666666666666664, "pa": 30, "margin": 4.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868023", "401867827", "401870840" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.991666666666667, 25.316666666666666 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.333333333333336, 28.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.0316666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.130833333333335, 29.273333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 7.0, 28.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604976", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.618469+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604976", "official_event_id": 6604976, "scores": [ 7, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.618469+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604976", "official_event_id": 6604976, "scores": [ 7, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.618469+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867919", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867919", "away": "Robert Morris Colonials", "home": "Morgan State Bears", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10 (-110) / -10 (-113)", "ml": "+315 / -431", "total": "53.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 23.0 / 28.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/robert-morris-colonials-morgan-state-bears-401867919-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867919", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.063101+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.727272727272727, 26.68181818181818 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.727272727272727, 26.68181818181818 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.727272727272727, 26.68181818181818 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 15.166666666666666, 24.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 25.6, 24.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.333333333333332, 26.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 31.6, 27.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.107603642853935, 30.401082863967147 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.107603642853935, 30.401082863967147 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.107603642853935, 30.401082863967147 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.166666666666666, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": -9.750000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401767550", "401767762", "401767613", "401767763", "401767744", "401767759", "401767764", "401767765", "401767766", "401767767", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.6, "pa": 24.6, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867917", "401866412", "401866426", "401867918" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401761593", "401767328", "401762819", "401774013", "401767398", "401767399", "401767400", "401767354", "401767401", "401767347", "401767402", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 27.6, "margin": 4, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401856774", "401867966", "401866640", "401867967" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.875, 24.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.6, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.9500000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.166666666666666, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": -9.750000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401767550", "401767762", "401767613", "401767763", "401767744", "401767759", "401767764", "401767765", "401767766", "401767767", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.6, "pa": 24.6, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867917", "401866412", "401866426", "401867918" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401761593", "401767328", "401762819", "401774013", "401767398", "401767399", "401767400", "401767354", "401767401", "401767347", "401767402", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 27.6, "margin": 4, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401856774", "401867966", "401866640", "401867967" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.875, 24.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.6, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.9500000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "adjustedScore": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867919", "away": "Robert Morris Colonials", "home": "Morgan State Bears", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Robert Morris Colonials 27, Morgan State Bears 28", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10 (-110) / -10 (-113)", "ml": "+315 / -431", "total": "53.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 23.0 / 28.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/robert-morris-colonials-morgan-state-bears-401867919-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867919", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.063101+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.727272727272727, 26.68181818181818 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.727272727272727, 26.68181818181818 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.727272727272727, 26.68181818181818 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 15.166666666666666, 24.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 25.6, 24.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.333333333333332, 26.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 31.6, 27.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.107603642853935, 30.401082863967147 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.107603642853935, 30.401082863967147 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.107603642853935, 30.401082863967147 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.166666666666666, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": -9.750000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401767550", "401767762", "401767613", "401767763", "401767744", "401767759", "401767764", "401767765", "401767766", "401767767", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.6, "pa": 24.6, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867917", "401866412", "401866426", "401867918" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401761593", "401767328", "401762819", "401774013", "401767398", "401767399", "401767400", "401767354", "401767401", "401767347", "401767402", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 27.6, "margin": 4, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401856774", "401867966", "401866640", "401867967" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.875, 24.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.6, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.9500000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.166666666666666, "pa": 24.916666666666668, "margin": -9.750000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401756878", "401767550", "401767762", "401767613", "401767763", "401767744", "401767759", "401767764", "401767765", "401767766", "401767767", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.6, "pa": 24.6, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867917", "401866412", "401866426", "401867918" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401761593", "401767328", "401762819", "401774013", "401767398", "401767399", "401767400", "401767354", "401767401", "401767347", "401767402", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 27.6, "margin": 4, "event_ids": [ "401866618", "401856774", "401867966", "401866640", "401867967" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.875, 24.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.6, 28.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.9500000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "adjustedScore": [ 22.7875, 28.5625 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 27.0, 28.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604980", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.621847+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604980", "official_event_id": 6604980, "scores": [ 27, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.621847+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604980", "official_event_id": 6604980, "scores": [ 27, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.621847+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867930", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867930", "away": "Princeton Tigers", "home": "Wagner Seahawks", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-24.5 (-119) / +24.5 (-104)", "ml": "-3100 / +1080", "total": "43.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 33.0 / 12.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/princeton-tigers-wagner-seahawks-401867930-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867930", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.098483+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 20.8, 24.4 ], "current_rates": [ 23.666666666666668, 9.333333333333334 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 16.416666666666668, 24.5 ], "current_rates": [ 12.4, 43.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 17.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 17.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25, 20 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 20 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 20.8, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -3.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767644", "401769866", "401767681", "401767576", "401767553", "401767705", "401767693", "401767703", "401788998", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 23.666666666666668, "pa": 9.333333333333334, "margin": 14.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866638", "401866646", "401867819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756854", "401767719", "401767627", "401762822", "401767406", "401767776", "401767745", "401767754", "401767768", "401767766", "401767775", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 12.4, "pa": 43.2, "margin": -30.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867928", "401867929", "401858233", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.961666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 12 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 12 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 20.8, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -3.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767644", "401769866", "401767681", "401767576", "401767553", "401767705", "401767693", "401767703", "401788998", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 23.666666666666668, "pa": 9.333333333333334, "margin": 14.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866638", "401866646", "401867819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756854", "401767719", "401767627", "401762822", "401767406", "401767776", "401767745", "401767754", "401767768", "401767766", "401767775", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 12.4, "pa": 43.2, "margin": -30.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867928", "401867929", "401858233", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.961666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 12 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 12 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867930", "away": "Princeton Tigers", "home": "Wagner Seahawks", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Princeton Tigers 28, Wagner Seahawks 13", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-24.5 (-119) / +24.5 (-104)", "ml": "-3100 / +1080", "total": "43.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 33.0 / 12.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/princeton-tigers-wagner-seahawks-401867930-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867930", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.098483+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.62777777777778, 17.734343434343437 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 20.8, 24.4 ], "current_rates": [ 23.666666666666668, 9.333333333333334 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 16.416666666666668, 24.5 ], "current_rates": [ 12.4, 43.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 17.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 17.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.84372986112675, 20.076449350677528 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25, 20 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 20 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 20.8, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -3.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767644", "401769866", "401767681", "401767576", "401767553", "401767705", "401767693", "401767703", "401788998", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 23.666666666666668, "pa": 9.333333333333334, "margin": 14.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866638", "401866646", "401867819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756854", "401767719", "401767627", "401762822", "401767406", "401767776", "401767745", "401767754", "401767768", "401767766", "401767775", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 12.4, "pa": 43.2, "margin": -30.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867928", "401867929", "401858233", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.961666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 12 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 12 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 20.8, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -3.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401767644", "401769866", "401767681", "401767576", "401767553", "401767705", "401767693", "401767703", "401788998", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 23.666666666666668, "pa": 9.333333333333334, "margin": 14.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866638", "401866646", "401867819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 24.5, "margin": -8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401756854", "401767719", "401767627", "401762822", "401767406", "401767776", "401767745", "401767754", "401767768", "401767766", "401767775", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 12.4, "pa": 43.2, "margin": -30.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401867916", "401867928", "401867929", "401858233", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.65, 20.40833333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.43333333333334, 10.866666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.961666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 12 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 12 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.00333333333334, 12.175833333333332 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 28.0, 13.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640396", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.623887+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640396", "official_event_id": 6640396, "scores": [ 28, 13 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.623887+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640396", "official_event_id": 6640396, "scores": [ 28, 13 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.623887+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867987", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867987", "away": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "home": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-6.5 (-108) / +6.5 (-115)", "ml": "-221 / +174", "total": "37.5; O -108 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 33.0 / 18.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/south-carolina-state-bulldogs-charleston-southern-buccaneers-401867987-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867987", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.148310+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 31.75, 26.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 44.333333333333336, 14.166666666666666 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 16.583333333333332, 24 ], "current_rates": [ 23.6, 16.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 26.333333333333332, "margin": 5.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401752691", "401767388", "401762470", "401767163", "401767436", "401767274", "401767408", "401767401", "401767396", "401767414", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 44.333333333333336, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 30.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401867982", "401867939", "401867983", "401867984", "401867985", "401867986" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.583333333333332, "pa": 24, "margin": -7.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401761597", "401767161", "401767162", "401767163", "401767164", "401767165", "401767166", "401767167", "401767168", "401767169", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.6, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 7, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401868170", "401868171", "401868172", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6000000000000014, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 26.333333333333332, "margin": 5.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401752691", "401767388", "401762470", "401767163", "401767436", "401767274", "401767408", "401767401", "401767396", "401767414", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 44.333333333333336, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 30.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401867982", "401867939", "401867983", "401867984", "401867985", "401867986" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.583333333333332, "pa": 24, "margin": -7.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401761597", "401767161", "401767162", "401767163", "401767164", "401767165", "401767166", "401767167", "401767168", "401767169", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.6, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 7, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401868170", "401868171", "401868172", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6000000000000014, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867987", "away": "South Carolina State Bulldogs", "home": "Charleston Southern Buccaneers", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "South Carolina State Bulldogs 39, Charleston Southern Buccaneers 49", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-6.5 (-108) / +6.5 (-115)", "ml": "-221 / +174", "total": "37.5; O -108 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 33.0 / 18.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/south-carolina-state-bulldogs-charleston-southern-buccaneers-401867987-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867987", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.148310+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.589015151515156, 20.761363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 31.75, 26.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 44.333333333333336, 14.166666666666666 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 16.583333333333332, 24 ], "current_rates": [ 23.6, 16.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.603851543846655, 23.821473725990707 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 26.333333333333332, "margin": 5.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401752691", "401767388", "401762470", "401767163", "401767436", "401767274", "401767408", "401767401", "401767396", "401767414", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 44.333333333333336, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 30.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401867982", "401867939", "401867983", "401867984", "401867985", "401867986" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.583333333333332, "pa": 24, "margin": -7.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401761597", "401767161", "401767162", "401767163", "401767164", "401767165", "401767166", "401767167", "401767168", "401767169", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.6, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 7, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401868170", "401868171", "401868172", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6000000000000014, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 26.333333333333332, "margin": 5.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401752691", "401767388", "401762470", "401767163", "401767436", "401767274", "401767408", "401767401", "401767396", "401767414", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 44.333333333333336, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 30.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401867982", "401867939", "401867983", "401867984", "401867985", "401867986" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.583333333333332, "pa": 24, "margin": -7.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401761597", "401767161", "401767162", "401767163", "401767164", "401767165", "401767166", "401767167", "401767168", "401767169", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.6, "pa": 16.6, "margin": 7, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401868170", "401868171", "401868172", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.875, 21.458333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.46666666666667, 18.883333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6000000000000014, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 32.770833333333336, 18.070833333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 39.0, 49.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604729", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.626395+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604729", "official_event_id": 6604729, "scores": [ 39, 49 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.626395+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604729", "official_event_id": 6604729, "scores": [ 39, 49 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.626395+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868221", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868221", "away": "Davidson Wildcats", "home": "Presbyterian Blue Hose", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+15.5 (-110) / -15.5 (-113)", "ml": "+539 / -870", "total": "57.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 21.5 / 39.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/davidson-wildcats-presbyterian-blue-hose-401868221-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868221", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.126006+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.867424242424242, 35.384469696969695 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.867424242424242, 35.384469696969695 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.867424242424242, 35.384469696969695 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 39.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 22.666666666666668, 38.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 34.416666666666664, 16.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 25.2, 44 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -21.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767149", "401767232", "401767603", "401767604", "401767605", "401767606", "401767607", "401767608", "401767609", "401767610", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 38.5, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401896384", "401866626", "401870822", "401868397", "401868219", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.416666666666664, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 18.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767565", "401767639", "401767640", "401767636", "401767596", "401767641", "401767617", "401767642", "401767609", "401767643", "401767633" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.2, "pa": 44, "margin": -18.8, "event_ids": [ "401868273", "401868274", "401868275", "401868263", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.67, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 39.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 22.666666666666668, 38.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 34.416666666666664, 16.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 25.2, 44 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18, 42 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 42 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -21.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767149", "401767232", "401767603", "401767604", "401767605", "401767606", "401767607", "401767608", "401767609", "401767610", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 38.5, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401896384", "401866626", "401870822", "401868397", "401868219", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.416666666666664, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 18.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767565", "401767639", "401767640", "401767636", "401767596", "401767641", "401767617", "401767642", "401767609", "401767643", "401767633" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.2, "pa": 44, "margin": -18.8, "event_ids": [ "401868273", "401868274", "401868275", "401868263", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.67, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -21.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767149", "401767232", "401767603", "401767604", "401767605", "401767606", "401767607", "401767608", "401767609", "401767610", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 38.5, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401896384", "401866626", "401870822", "401868397", "401868219", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.416666666666664, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 18.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767565", "401767639", "401767640", "401767636", "401767596", "401767641", "401767617", "401767642", "401767609", "401767643", "401767633" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.2, "pa": 44, "margin": -18.8, "event_ids": [ "401868273", "401868274", "401868275", "401868263", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.166666666666668, 37 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.333333333333336, 31.85 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.67, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "adjustedScore": [ 21.58, 39.595 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 21.0, 38.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604973", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.628403+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604973", "official_event_id": 6604973, "scores": [ 21, 38 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.628403+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604973", "official_event_id": 6604973, "scores": [ 21, 38 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.628403+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868229", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868229", "away": "Morehead State Eagles", "home": "Dayton Flyers", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+20.5 (-118) / -20.5 (-106)", "ml": "+860 / -1860", "total": "54.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 15.5 / 39.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/morehead-state-eagles-dayton-flyers-401868229-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868229", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.157491+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.554545454545455, 33.059090909090905 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.554545454545455, 33.059090909090905 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.554545454545455, 33.059090909090905 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.166666666666668, 29.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 25.4, 45 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 27.818181818181817, 17.363636363636363 ], "current_rates": [ 28, 17.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 15.208292692995853, 36.54520277855203 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.208292692995853, 36.54520277855203 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.208292692995853, 36.54520277855203 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15, 36.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -8.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767634", "401767437", "401767248", "401767635", "401767636", "401767615", "401767637", "401767630", "401767638", "401767608", "401767599", "401767625" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 45, "margin": -19.6, "event_ids": [ "401896383", "401868269", "401868061", "401868205", "401868270" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 27.818181818181817, "pa": 17.363636363636363, "margin": 10.454545454545453, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767612", "401767613", "401767614", "401767615", "401767616", "401767597", "401767617", "401767618", "401767619", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 28, "pa": 17.75, "margin": 10.25, "event_ids": [ "401868792", "401868227", "401868142", "401868228" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.265151515151516, 28.825757575757574 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.575, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.897121212121212, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15.5, 39 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.5, 39 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -8.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767634", "401767437", "401767248", "401767635", "401767636", "401767615", "401767637", "401767630", "401767638", "401767608", "401767599", "401767625" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 45, "margin": -19.6, "event_ids": [ "401896383", "401868269", "401868061", "401868205", "401868270" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 27.818181818181817, "pa": 17.363636363636363, "margin": 10.454545454545453, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767612", "401767613", "401767614", "401767615", "401767616", "401767597", "401767617", "401767618", "401767619", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 28, "pa": 17.75, "margin": 10.25, "event_ids": [ "401868792", "401868227", "401868142", "401868228" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.265151515151516, 28.825757575757574 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.575, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.897121212121212, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15.5, 39 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.5, 39 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "adjustedScore": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868229", "away": "Morehead State Eagles", "home": "Dayton Flyers", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Morehead State Eagles 28, Dayton Flyers 56", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+20.5 (-118) / -20.5 (-106)", "ml": "+860 / -1860", "total": "54.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 15.5 / 39.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/morehead-state-eagles-dayton-flyers-401868229-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868229", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.157491+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.554545454545455, 33.059090909090905 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.554545454545455, 33.059090909090905 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.554545454545455, 33.059090909090905 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.166666666666668, 29.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 25.4, 45 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 27.818181818181817, 17.363636363636363 ], "current_rates": [ 28, 17.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 15.208292692995853, 36.54520277855203 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.208292692995853, 36.54520277855203 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.208292692995853, 36.54520277855203 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -8.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767634", "401767437", "401767248", "401767635", "401767636", "401767615", "401767637", "401767630", "401767638", "401767608", "401767599", "401767625" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 45, "margin": -19.6, "event_ids": [ "401896383", "401868269", "401868061", "401868205", "401868270" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 27.818181818181817, "pa": 17.363636363636363, "margin": 10.454545454545453, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767612", "401767613", "401767614", "401767615", "401767616", "401767597", "401767617", "401767618", "401767619", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 28, "pa": 17.75, "margin": 10.25, "event_ids": [ "401868792", "401868227", "401868142", "401868228" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.265151515151516, 28.825757575757574 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.575, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.897121212121212, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15.5, 39 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.5, 39 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -8.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767634", "401767437", "401767248", "401767635", "401767636", "401767615", "401767637", "401767630", "401767638", "401767608", "401767599", "401767625" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 45, "margin": -19.6, "event_ids": [ "401896383", "401868269", "401868061", "401868205", "401868270" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 27.818181818181817, "pa": 17.363636363636363, "margin": 10.454545454545453, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767612", "401767613", "401767614", "401767615", "401767616", "401767597", "401767617", "401767618", "401767619", "401767611" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 28, "pa": 17.75, "margin": 10.25, "event_ids": [ "401868792", "401868227", "401868142", "401868228" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.265151515151516, 28.825757575757574 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.575, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.897121212121212, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15.5, 39 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15.5, 39 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "adjustedScore": [ 15.522954545454546, 39.06 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 28.0, 56.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604834", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.630917+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604834", "official_event_id": 6604834, "scores": [ 28, 56 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.630917+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604834", "official_event_id": 6604834, "scores": [ 28, 56 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.630917+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868347", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868347", "away": "East Tennessee State Buccaneers", "home": "The Citadel Bulldogs", "startTime": "12:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-11.5 (-107) / +11.5 (-116)", "ml": "-452 / +327", "total": "50.5; O -119 / U -104", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 34.0 / 24.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/east-tennessee-state-buccaneers-the-citadel-bulldogs-401868347-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868347", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.157491+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.409090909090907, 25.583333333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.409090909090907, 25.583333333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.409090909090907, 25.583333333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 32.5, 28.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 32.5, 26.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.5, 26.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 23.8, 33.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 28.833333333333332, "margin": 3.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767454", "401752692", "401767300", "401767151", "401767558", "401767559", "401767560", "401767532", "401767561", "401767562", "401767563", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 6, "event_ids": [ "401866620", "401868345", "401858218", "401868242", "401868346", "401868339" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 26.833333333333332, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767579", "401767202", "401767574", "401767530", "401767583", "401767584", "401767569", "401767585", "401752761", "401767586", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 33.4, "margin": -9.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401862694", "401868171", "401868338", "401867986" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.666666666666664, 24.666666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.95, 25.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.56, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 28.833333333333332, "margin": 3.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767454", "401752692", "401767300", "401767151", "401767558", "401767559", "401767560", "401767532", "401767561", "401767562", "401767563", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 6, "event_ids": [ "401866620", "401868345", "401858218", "401868242", "401868346", "401868339" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 26.833333333333332, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767579", "401767202", "401767574", "401767530", "401767583", "401767584", "401767569", "401767585", "401752761", "401767586", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 33.4, "margin": -9.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401862694", "401868171", "401868338", "401867986" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.666666666666664, 24.666666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.95, 25.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.56, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 32.5, 28.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 32.5, 26.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.5, 26.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 23.8, 33.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 28.833333333333332, "margin": 3.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767454", "401752692", "401767300", "401767151", "401767558", "401767559", "401767560", "401767532", "401767561", "401767562", "401767563", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 6, "event_ids": [ "401866620", "401868345", "401858218", "401868242", "401868346", "401868339" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 26.833333333333332, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767579", "401767202", "401767574", "401767530", "401767583", "401767584", "401767569", "401767585", "401752761", "401767586", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 33.4, "margin": -9.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401862694", "401868171", "401868338", "401867986" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.666666666666664, 24.666666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.95, 25.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.56, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 28.833333333333332, "margin": 3.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767454", "401752692", "401767300", "401767151", "401767558", "401767559", "401767560", "401767532", "401767561", "401767562", "401767563", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 6, "event_ids": [ "401866620", "401868345", "401858218", "401868242", "401868346", "401868339" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.5, "pa": 26.833333333333332, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767579", "401767202", "401767574", "401767530", "401767583", "401767584", "401767569", "401767585", "401752761", "401767586", "401767564" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 33.4, "margin": -9.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401862694", "401868171", "401868338", "401867986" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.666666666666664, 24.666666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.95, 25.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.56, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.86833333333333, 23.848333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 15.833333333333334, 29.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 19.2, 37.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 22.5, 20.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 33, 16.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 31 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 31 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.916960872706603, 35.29847407396695 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.833333333333334, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -13.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752683", "401762818", "401757169", "401762830", "401762834", "401762838", "401762845", "401762853", "401762861", "401762867", "401762875" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.2, "pa": 37.8, "margin": -18.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401866413", "401866422", "401866425", "401866431" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 20.916666666666668, "margin": 1.5833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401752817", "401752831", "401752851", "401752858", "401752866", "401752874", "401752883", "401752896", "401752905", "401752909", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33, "pa": 16.75, "margin": 16.25, "event_ids": [ "401858431", "401856796", "401858461", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.375, 26.166666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.975, 35.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.043333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 13, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 13, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.833333333333334, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -13.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752683", "401762818", "401757169", "401762830", "401762834", "401762838", "401762845", "401762853", "401762861", "401762867", "401762875" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.2, "pa": 37.8, "margin": -18.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401866413", "401866422", "401866425", "401866431" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 20.916666666666668, "margin": 1.5833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401752817", "401752831", "401752851", "401752858", "401752866", "401752874", "401752883", "401752896", "401752905", "401752909", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33, "pa": 16.75, "margin": 16.25, "event_ids": [ "401858431", "401856796", "401858461", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.375, 26.166666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.975, 35.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.043333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 13, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 13, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 15.833333333333334, 29.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 19.2, 37.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 22.5, 20.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 33, 16.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 31 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 31 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 14, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.833333333333334, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -13.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752683", "401762818", "401757169", "401762830", "401762834", "401762838", "401762845", "401762853", "401762861", "401762867", "401762875" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.2, "pa": 37.8, "margin": -18.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401866413", "401866422", "401866425", "401866431" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 20.916666666666668, "margin": 1.5833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401752817", "401752831", "401752851", "401752858", "401752866", "401752874", "401752883", "401752896", "401752905", "401752909", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33, "pa": 16.75, "margin": 16.25, "event_ids": [ "401858431", "401856796", "401858461", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.375, 26.166666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.975, 35.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.043333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 13, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 13, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.833333333333334, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -13.999999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752683", "401762818", "401757169", "401762830", "401762834", "401762838", "401762845", "401762853", "401762861", "401762867", "401762875" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.2, "pa": 37.8, "margin": -18.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401866413", "401866422", "401866425", "401866431" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.5, "pa": 20.916666666666668, "margin": 1.5833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401752803", "401752817", "401752831", "401752851", "401752858", "401752866", "401752874", "401752883", "401752896", "401752905", "401752909", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33, "pa": 16.75, "margin": 16.25, "event_ids": [ "401858431", "401856796", "401858461", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.375, 26.166666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.975, 35.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.043333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 13, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 13, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 13.131666666666668, 37.32666666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 14.0, 45.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603798", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.634174+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603798", "official_event_id": 6603798, "scores": [ 14, 45 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.634174+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603798", "official_event_id": 6603798, "scores": [ 14, 45 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.634174+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867992", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867992", "away": "Bucknell Bison", "home": "Georgetown Hoyas", "startTime": "12:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-112) / -1.5 (-111)", "ml": "+101 / -125", "total": "47.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 23.0 / 26.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/bucknell-bison-georgetown-hoyas-401867992-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867992", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.330239+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.083333333333332, 34.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 10.2, 26.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 21.083333333333332, 26.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 16.5, 31 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.083333333333332, "pa": 34.083333333333336, "margin": -8.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401767626", "401767588", "401767664", "401767665", "401767666", "401767667", "401767692", "401767668", "401767669", "401767670", "401767671" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 10.2, "pa": 26.8, "margin": -16.6, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401867989", "401867990", "401867991", "401858236" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.083333333333332, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -5.583333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767719", "401767720", "401767551", "401767721", "401767399", "401767722", "401767668", "401767723", "401767724", "401767717", "401767725" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 16.5, "pa": 31, "margin": -14.5, "event_ids": [ "401868017", "401868018", "401867818", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.375, 27.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.6, 21.65 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.45166666666666694, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.083333333333332, "pa": 34.083333333333336, "margin": -8.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401767626", "401767588", "401767664", "401767665", "401767666", "401767667", "401767692", "401767668", "401767669", "401767670", "401767671" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 10.2, "pa": 26.8, "margin": -16.6, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401867989", "401867990", "401867991", "401858236" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.083333333333332, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -5.583333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767719", "401767720", "401767551", "401767721", "401767399", "401767722", "401767668", "401767723", "401767724", "401767717", "401767725" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 16.5, "pa": 31, "margin": -14.5, "event_ids": [ "401868017", "401868018", "401867818", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.375, 27.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.6, 21.65 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.45166666666666694, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867992", "away": "Bucknell Bison", "home": "Georgetown Hoyas", "startTime": "12:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Bucknell Bison 14, Georgetown Hoyas 21", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-112) / -1.5 (-111)", "ml": "+101 / -125", "total": "47.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 23.0 / 26.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/bucknell-bison-georgetown-hoyas-401867992-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867992", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.330239+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.88181818181818, 25.761363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.083333333333332, 34.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 10.2, 26.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 21.083333333333332, 26.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 16.5, 31 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.54315665961368, 29.575022551801105 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.083333333333332, "pa": 34.083333333333336, "margin": -8.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401767626", "401767588", "401767664", "401767665", "401767666", "401767667", "401767692", "401767668", "401767669", "401767670", "401767671" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 10.2, "pa": 26.8, "margin": -16.6, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401867989", "401867990", "401867991", "401858236" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.083333333333332, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -5.583333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767719", "401767720", "401767551", "401767721", "401767399", "401767722", "401767668", "401767723", "401767724", "401767717", "401767725" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 16.5, "pa": 31, "margin": -14.5, "event_ids": [ "401868017", "401868018", "401867818", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.375, 27.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.6, 21.65 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.45166666666666694, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.083333333333332, "pa": 34.083333333333336, "margin": -8.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401767626", "401767588", "401767664", "401767665", "401767666", "401767667", "401767692", "401767668", "401767669", "401767670", "401767671" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 10.2, "pa": 26.8, "margin": -16.6, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401867989", "401867990", "401867991", "401858236" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.083333333333332, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -5.583333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767602", "401767719", "401767720", "401767551", "401767721", "401767399", "401767722", "401767668", "401767723", "401767724", "401767717", "401767725" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 16.5, "pa": 31, "margin": -14.5, "event_ids": [ "401868017", "401868018", "401867818", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.375, 27.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.6, 21.65 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.45166666666666694, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.035833333333333, 26.568333333333335 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401856714", "away": "South Carolina Gamecocks", "home": "Florida Gators", "startTime": "12:45 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "South Carolina Gamecocks 38, Florida Gators 19", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10.5 (-105) / -10.5 (-115)", "ml": "+360 / -470", "total": "58.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 27.5 / 31.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/south-carolina-gamecocks-florida-gators-401856714-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856714", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.323477+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.704545454545453, 26.25 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "57", "side": "home", "player": "Vernell Brown III", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.704545454545453, 29.25 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.704545454545453, 26.25 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.704545454545453, 26.25 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.666666666666668, 22.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 37.6, 26.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.583333333333332, 24 ], "current_rates": [ 46.2, 27.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.907448075492823, 29.62047086728566 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "57", "side": "home", "player": "Vernell Brown III", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.907448075492823, 32.62047086728566 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.907448075492823, 29.62047086728566 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.907448075492823, 29.62047086728566 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "57", "side": "home", "player": "Vernell Brown III", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.5833333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752691", "401752704", "401752713", "401752722", "401752732", "401752744", "401752751", "401752756", "401752772", "401752779", "401752790" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.6, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 10.8, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401856680", "401856691", "401856696", "401856709" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.583333333333332, "pa": 24, "margin": -2.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401752684", "401752699", "401752709", "401752727", "401752737", "401752741", "401752755", "401752760", "401752769", "401752775", "401752785" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 46.2, "pa": 27.2, "margin": 19.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401856637", "401856672", "401856687", "401856699", "401856708" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5199999999999999, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 31 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 31 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "57", "side": "home", "player": "Vernell Brown III", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.346666666666668, 28.186666666666664 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 22.083333333333332, "margin": 0.5833333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752691", "401752704", "401752713", "401752722", "401752732", "401752744", "401752751", "401752756", "401752772", "401752779", "401752790" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37.6, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 10.8, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401856680", "401856691", "401856696", "401856709" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.583333333333332, "pa": 24, "margin": -2.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401752684", "401752699", "401752709", "401752727", "401752737", "401752741", "401752755", "401752760", "401752769", "401752775", "401752785" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 46.2, "pa": 27.2, "margin": 19.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401856637", "401856672", "401856687", "401856699", "401856708" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.333333333333336, 21.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.4, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5199999999999999, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 31 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 31 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.346666666666668, 31.186666666666664 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 38.0, 19.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603648", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.638237+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603648", "official_event_id": 6603648, "scores": [ 38, 19 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.638237+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603648", "official_event_id": 6603648, "scores": [ 38, 19 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.638237+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401862797", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401862797", "away": "Rice Owls", "home": "East Carolina Pirates", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10 (-110) / -10 (-110)", "ml": "+300 / -380", "total": "46.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 17.5 / 34.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/rice-owls-east-carolina-pirates-401862797-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862797", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.388316+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 19.833333333333332, 32.25 ], "current_rates": [ 18, 27.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 33.5, 20.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 24, 25.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 32.25, "margin": -12.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761592", "401756884", "401762466", "401762468", "401762473", "401762477", "401762485", "401757172", "401762497", "401762502", "401762514", "401762520" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18, "pa": 27.4, "margin": -9.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401862697", "401859184", "401862773", "401860891", "401862788" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24, "pa": 25.25, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.3733333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 32.25, "margin": -12.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761592", "401756884", "401762466", "401762468", "401762473", "401762477", "401762485", "401757172", "401762497", "401762502", "401762514", "401762520" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18, "pa": 27.4, "margin": -9.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401862697", "401859184", "401862773", "401860891", "401862788" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24, "pa": 25.25, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.3733333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401862797", "away": "Rice Owls", "home": "East Carolina Pirates", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Rice Owls 12, East Carolina Pirates 28", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10 (-110) / -10 (-110)", "ml": "+300 / -380", "total": "46.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 17.5 / 34.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/rice-owls-east-carolina-pirates-401862797-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862797", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.388316+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.9, 30.62272727272727 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 19.833333333333332, 32.25 ], "current_rates": [ 18, 27.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 33.5, 20.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 24, 25.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.774668626184564, 34.475000540924746 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 32.25, "margin": -12.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761592", "401756884", "401762466", "401762468", "401762473", "401762477", "401762485", "401757172", "401762497", "401762502", "401762514", "401762520" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18, "pa": 27.4, "margin": -9.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401862697", "401859184", "401862773", "401860891", "401862788" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24, "pa": 25.25, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.3733333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 32.25, "margin": -12.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761592", "401756884", "401762466", "401762468", "401762473", "401762477", "401762485", "401757172", "401762497", "401762502", "401762514", "401762520" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18, "pa": 27.4, "margin": -9.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401862697", "401859184", "401862773", "401860891", "401862788" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.5, "pa": 20.333333333333332, "margin": 13.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754373", "401762459", "401761604", "401756898", "401762471", "401762480", "401762486", "401762498", "401762504", "401762508", "401762513", "401762519" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 24, "pa": 25.25, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401864571", "401862710", "401862781" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.083333333333332, 32.875 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.625, 25.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.3733333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.48083333333333, 34.160833333333336 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 12.0, 28.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604297", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.642409+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604297", "official_event_id": 6604297, "scores": [ 12, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.642409+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604297", "official_event_id": 6604297, "scores": [ 12, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.642409+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867829", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867829", "away": "Harvard Crimson", "home": "Cornell Big Red", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-7 (-107) / +7 (-116)", "ml": "-279 / +215", "total": "41.5; O -110 / U -113", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 19.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/harvard-crimson-cornell-big-red-401867829-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867829", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.383300+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 36.45454545454545, 21.181818181818183 ], "current_rates": [ 21.666666666666668, 11.333333333333334 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 21, 26 ], "current_rates": [ 26.666666666666668, 19.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 36.45454545454545, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 15.27272727272727, "event_ids": [ "401767653", "401767552", "401767727", "401767691", "401767704", "401767705", "401767702", "401767706", "401767707", "401767708", "401836055" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 11.333333333333334, "margin": 10.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866639", "401867806", "401867840" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 21, "pa": 26, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401767333", "401767689", "401767690", "401767691", "401767692", "401767554", "401767693", "401767694", "401767695", "401767696" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 26.666666666666668, "pa": 19.666666666666668, "margin": 7, "event_ids": [ "401867826", "401867827", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.3606060606060604, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 19 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 19 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 36.45454545454545, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 15.27272727272727, "event_ids": [ "401767653", "401767552", "401767727", "401767691", "401767704", "401767705", "401767702", "401767706", "401767707", "401767708", "401836055" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 11.333333333333334, "margin": 10.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866639", "401867806", "401867840" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 21, "pa": 26, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401767333", "401767689", "401767690", "401767691", "401767692", "401767554", "401767693", "401767694", "401767695", "401767696" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 26.666666666666668, "pa": 19.666666666666668, "margin": 7, "event_ids": [ "401867826", "401867827", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.3606060606060604, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 19 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 19 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867829", "away": "Harvard Crimson", "home": "Cornell Big Red", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Harvard Crimson 41, Cornell Big Red 29", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-7 (-107) / +7 (-116)", "ml": "-279 / +215", "total": "41.5; O -110 / U -113", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 19.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/harvard-crimson-cornell-big-red-401867829-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867829", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.383300+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.95707070707071, 21.143939393939398 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 36.45454545454545, 21.181818181818183 ], "current_rates": [ 21.666666666666668, 11.333333333333334 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 21, 26 ], "current_rates": [ 26.666666666666668, 19.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.07342943534067, 25.785415864885724 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 36.45454545454545, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 15.27272727272727, "event_ids": [ "401767653", "401767552", "401767727", "401767691", "401767704", "401767705", "401767702", "401767706", "401767707", "401767708", "401836055" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 11.333333333333334, "margin": 10.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866639", "401867806", "401867840" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 21, "pa": 26, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401767333", "401767689", "401767690", "401767691", "401767692", "401767554", "401767693", "401767694", "401767695", "401767696" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 26.666666666666668, "pa": 19.666666666666668, "margin": 7, "event_ids": [ "401867826", "401867827", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.3606060606060604, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 19 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 19 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 36.45454545454545, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 15.27272727272727, "event_ids": [ "401767653", "401767552", "401767727", "401767691", "401767704", "401767705", "401767702", "401767706", "401767707", "401767708", "401836055" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 11.333333333333334, "margin": 10.333333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401866639", "401867806", "401867840" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 21, "pa": 26, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401767333", "401767689", "401767690", "401767691", "401767692", "401767554", "401767693", "401767694", "401767695", "401767696" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 26.666666666666668, "pa": 19.666666666666668, "margin": 7, "event_ids": [ "401867826", "401867827", "401867828" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.227272727272727, 21.090909090909093 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.3606060606060604, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 19 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 19 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.307575757575755, 19.184848484848487 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 41.0, 29.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604813", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.642409+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604813", "official_event_id": 6604813, "scores": [ 41, 29 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.642409+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604813", "official_event_id": 6604813, "scores": [ 41, 29 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.642409+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867860", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867860", "away": "Youngstown State Penguins", "home": "Indiana State Sycamores", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-19.5 (-113) / +19.5 (-110)", "ml": "-1620 / +800", "total": "64.5; O -110 / U -113", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 41.0 / 23.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/youngstown-state-penguins-indiana-state-sycamores-401867860-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867860", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.448152+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 36.008012820512825, 26.666666666666668 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.008012820512825, 26.666666666666668 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.008012820512825, 26.666666666666668 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.61538461538461, 31 ], "current_rates": [ 36.833333333333336, 23.166666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 21.166666666666668, 39.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 28.333333333333332, 34 ] } }, "display_base": [ 36, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 33.71701859673886, 30.194858826360154 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71701859673886, 30.194858826360154 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71701859673886, 30.194858826360154 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "adjusted_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "conditional_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 36.61538461538461, "pa": 31, "margin": 5.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401767549", "401767550", "401752834", "401767329", "401767546", "401767504", "401767440", "401767498", "401767513", "401767548", "401767452", "401767540", "401833975" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 36.833333333333336, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867894", "401856659", "401867895", "401867896", "401867885", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -18.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767446", "401767172", "401752836", "401767099", "401767447", "401767448", "401767449", "401767450", "401767451", "401767443", "401767452", "401767453" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 34, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401858435", "401867856", "401867857", "401867858", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 38.09935897435898, 26.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.41666666666667, 25.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.336538461538462, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 41, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "adjusted_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "conditional_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 36.61538461538461, "pa": 31, "margin": 5.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401767549", "401767550", "401752834", "401767329", "401767546", "401767504", "401767440", "401767498", "401767513", "401767548", "401767452", "401767540", "401833975" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 36.833333333333336, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867894", "401856659", "401867895", "401867896", "401867885", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -18.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767446", "401767172", "401752836", "401767099", "401767447", "401767448", "401767449", "401767450", "401767451", "401767443", "401767452", "401767453" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 34, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401858435", "401867856", "401867857", "401867858", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 38.09935897435898, 26.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.41666666666667, 25.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.336538461538462, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 41, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "adjustedScore": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867860", "away": "Youngstown State Penguins", "home": "Indiana State Sycamores", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Youngstown State Penguins 57, Indiana State Sycamores 24", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-19.5 (-113) / +19.5 (-110)", "ml": "-1620 / +800", "total": "64.5; O -110 / U -113", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 41.0 / 23.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/youngstown-state-penguins-indiana-state-sycamores-401867860-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867860", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.448152+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 36.008012820512825, 26.666666666666668 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.008012820512825, 26.666666666666668 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.008012820512825, 26.666666666666668 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.61538461538461, 31 ], "current_rates": [ 36.833333333333336, 23.166666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 21.166666666666668, 39.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 28.333333333333332, 34 ] } }, "display_base": [ 36, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 33.71701859673886, 30.194858826360154 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.71701859673886, 30.194858826360154 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.71701859673886, 30.194858826360154 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "adjusted_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "conditional_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 36.61538461538461, "pa": 31, "margin": 5.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401767549", "401767550", "401752834", "401767329", "401767546", "401767504", "401767440", "401767498", "401767513", "401767548", "401767452", "401767540", "401833975" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 36.833333333333336, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867894", "401856659", "401867895", "401867896", "401867885", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -18.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767446", "401767172", "401752836", "401767099", "401767447", "401767448", "401767449", "401767450", "401767451", "401767443", "401767452", "401767453" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 34, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401858435", "401867856", "401867857", "401867858", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 38.09935897435898, 26.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.41666666666667, 25.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.336538461538462, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 41, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "adjusted_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "conditional_score": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 36.61538461538461, "pa": 31, "margin": 5.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401767549", "401767550", "401752834", "401767329", "401767546", "401767504", "401767440", "401767498", "401767513", "401767548", "401767452", "401767540", "401833975" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 36.833333333333336, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 13.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867894", "401856659", "401867895", "401867896", "401867885", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.166666666666668, "pa": 39.583333333333336, "margin": -18.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767446", "401767172", "401752836", "401767099", "401767447", "401767448", "401767449", "401767450", "401767451", "401767443", "401767452", "401767453" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 34, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401858435", "401867856", "401867857", "401867858", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 38.09935897435898, 26.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.41666666666667, 25.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.336538461538462, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 41, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "adjustedScore": [ 41.094551282051285, 23.080128205128204 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 57.0, 24.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604379", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.647740+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604379", "official_event_id": 6604379, "scores": [ 57, 24 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.647740+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604379", "official_event_id": 6604379, "scores": [ 57, 24 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.647740+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867907", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867907", "away": "American International Yellow Jackets", "home": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Unavailable (Unavailable) / Unavailable (Unavailable)", "ml": "Unavailable / Unavailable", "total": "Unavailable; O Unavailable / U Unavailable", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 18.0 / 34.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/american-international-yellow-jackets-central-connecticut-blue-devils-401867907-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": null, "marketRetrieved": null, "marketConf": { "provider": "Unavailable" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.267832167832168, 26.3986013986014 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.267832167832168, 26.3986013986014 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.267832167832168, 26.3986013986014 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 16, 25.6 ], "current_rates": [ 18.6, 23.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 26.692307692307693, 22.923076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 26.25, 42.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.379036053814676, 30.687642175105328 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.379036053814676, 30.687642175105328 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.379036053814676, 30.687642175105328 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 16, "pa": 25.6, "margin": -9.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401767741", "401773707", "401773726", "401777970", "401773718", "401777971", "401777972", "401777973", "401777974", "401773715" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 23.8, "margin": -5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401907454", "401907475", "401907476", "401907477", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 26.692307692307693, "pa": 22.923076923076923, "margin": 3.76923076923077, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401767741", "401767742", "401767743", "401767697", "401767660", "401767744", "401767745", "401767746", "401767747", "401767748", "401767749", "401836102" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 26.25, "pa": 42.75, "margin": -16.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401866419", "401867898", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.46153846153846, 26.146153846153847 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.675, 25.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2069230769230771, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 18, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 16, "pa": 25.6, "margin": -9.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401767741", "401773707", "401773726", "401777970", "401773718", "401777971", "401777972", "401777973", "401777974", "401773715" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 23.8, "margin": -5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401907454", "401907475", "401907476", "401907477", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 26.692307692307693, "pa": 22.923076923076923, "margin": 3.76923076923077, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401767741", "401767742", "401767743", "401767697", "401767660", "401767744", "401767745", "401767746", "401767747", "401767748", "401767749", "401836102" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 26.25, "pa": 42.75, "margin": -16.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401866419", "401867898", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.46153846153846, 26.146153846153847 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.675, 25.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2069230769230771, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 18, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867907", "away": "American International Yellow Jackets", "home": "Central Connecticut Blue Devils", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "American International Yellow Jackets 14, Central Connecticut Blue Devils 51", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Unavailable (Unavailable) / Unavailable (Unavailable)", "ml": "Unavailable / Unavailable", "total": "Unavailable; O Unavailable / U Unavailable", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 18.0 / 34.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/american-international-yellow-jackets-central-connecticut-blue-devils-401867907-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": null, "marketRetrieved": null, "marketConf": { "provider": "Unavailable" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.267832167832168, 26.3986013986014 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.267832167832168, 26.3986013986014 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.267832167832168, 26.3986013986014 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 16, 25.6 ], "current_rates": [ 18.6, 23.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 26.692307692307693, 22.923076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 26.25, 42.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.379036053814676, 30.687642175105328 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.379036053814676, 30.687642175105328 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.379036053814676, 30.687642175105328 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 16, "pa": 25.6, "margin": -9.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401767741", "401773707", "401773726", "401777970", "401773718", "401777971", "401777972", "401777973", "401777974", "401773715" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 23.8, "margin": -5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401907454", "401907475", "401907476", "401907477", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 26.692307692307693, "pa": 22.923076923076923, "margin": 3.76923076923077, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401767741", "401767742", "401767743", "401767697", "401767660", "401767744", "401767745", "401767746", "401767747", "401767748", "401767749", "401836102" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 26.25, "pa": 42.75, "margin": -16.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401866419", "401867898", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.46153846153846, 26.146153846153847 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.675, 25.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2069230769230771, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 18, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 16, "pa": 25.6, "margin": -9.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401767741", "401773707", "401773726", "401777970", "401773718", "401777971", "401777972", "401777973", "401777974", "401773715" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 23.8, "margin": -5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401907454", "401907475", "401907476", "401907477", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 26.692307692307693, "pa": 22.923076923076923, "margin": 3.76923076923077, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401767741", "401767742", "401767743", "401767697", "401767660", "401767744", "401767745", "401767746", "401767747", "401767748", "401767749", "401836102" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 26.25, "pa": 42.75, "margin": -16.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401866419", "401867898", "401867899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.46153846153846, 26.146153846153847 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.675, 25.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.2069230769230771, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 18, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.861346153846156, 34.2925 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 14.0, 51.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604893", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.651619+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604893", "official_event_id": 6604893, "scores": [ 14, 51 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.651619+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604893", "official_event_id": 6604893, "scores": [ 14, 51 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.651619+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867911", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867911", "away": "Long Island University Sharks", "home": "Duquesne Dukes", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+3 (-108) / -3 (-115)", "ml": "+129 / -161", "total": "45.5; O -110 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 23.0 / 26.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/long-island-university-sharks-duquesne-dukes-401867911-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867911", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.606802+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.1125, 25.633333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.1125, 25.633333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.1125, 25.633333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 16.416666666666668, 18.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 14.333333333333334, 32 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 28.416666666666668, 25.25 ], "current_rates": [ 18.25, 38 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.885991166281332, 29.714607660376736 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.885991166281332, 29.714607660376736 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.885991166281332, 29.714607660376736 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": -2.4166666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401762795", "401767659", "401767319", "401767758", "401767757", "401767759", "401779510", "401767746", "401767755", "401767760", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 32, "margin": -17.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401856769", "401866632", "401867908", "401867909", "401867910" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 25.25, "margin": 3.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401767750", "401767733", "401762821", "401779328", "401767751", "401767752", "401767753", "401767754", "401767755", "401767748", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.25, "pa": 38, "margin": -19.75, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401867895", "401860890", "401870839" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 23.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666668, 25.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.34999999999999964, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": -2.4166666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401762795", "401767659", "401767319", "401767758", "401767757", "401767759", "401779510", "401767746", "401767755", "401767760", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 32, "margin": -17.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401856769", "401866632", "401867908", "401867909", "401867910" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 25.25, "margin": 3.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401767750", "401767733", "401762821", "401779328", "401767751", "401767752", "401767753", "401767754", "401767755", "401767748", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.25, "pa": 38, "margin": -19.75, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401867895", "401860890", "401870839" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 23.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666668, 25.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.34999999999999964, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867911", "away": "Long Island University Sharks", "home": "Duquesne Dukes", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Long Island University Sharks 17, Duquesne Dukes 14", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+3 (-108) / -3 (-115)", "ml": "+129 / -161", "total": "45.5; O -110 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 23.0 / 26.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/long-island-university-sharks-duquesne-dukes-401867911-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867911", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.606802+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.1125, 25.633333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.1125, 25.633333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.1125, 25.633333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 16.416666666666668, 18.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 14.333333333333334, 32 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 28.416666666666668, 25.25 ], "current_rates": [ 18.25, 38 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.885991166281332, 29.714607660376736 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.885991166281332, 29.714607660376736 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.885991166281332, 29.714607660376736 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": -2.4166666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401762795", "401767659", "401767319", "401767758", "401767757", "401767759", "401779510", "401767746", "401767755", "401767760", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 32, "margin": -17.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401856769", "401866632", "401867908", "401867909", "401867910" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 25.25, "margin": 3.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401767750", "401767733", "401762821", "401779328", "401767751", "401767752", "401767753", "401767754", "401767755", "401767748", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.25, "pa": 38, "margin": -19.75, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401867895", "401860890", "401870839" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 23.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666668, 25.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.34999999999999964, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.416666666666668, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": -2.4166666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401752668", "401762795", "401767659", "401767319", "401767758", "401767757", "401767759", "401779510", "401767746", "401767755", "401767760", "401767761" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 32, "margin": -17.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401856769", "401866632", "401867908", "401867909", "401867910" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 25.25, "margin": 3.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754520", "401767750", "401767733", "401762821", "401779328", "401767751", "401767752", "401767753", "401767754", "401767755", "401767748", "401767756" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 18.25, "pa": 38, "margin": -19.75, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401867895", "401860890", "401870839" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 23.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666668, 25.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.34999999999999964, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 23, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.15, 26.225 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 17.0, 14.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604967", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.653137+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604967", "official_event_id": 6604967, "scores": [ 17, 14 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.653137+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604967", "official_event_id": 6604967, "scores": [ 17, 14 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.653137+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867954", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867954", "away": "Franklin Pierce Ravens", "home": "Delaware State Hornets", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Unavailable (Unavailable) / Unavailable (Unavailable)", "ml": "Unavailable / Unavailable", "total": "Unavailable; O Unavailable / U Unavailable", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 23.0 / 31.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/franklin-pierce-ravens-delaware-state-hornets-401867954-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": null, "marketRetrieved": null, "marketConf": { "provider": "Unavailable" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.1525, 24.70916666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.1525, 24.70916666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.1525, 24.70916666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 23.8, 17.1 ], "current_rates": [ 36, 26.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 32.25, 24.75 ], "current_rates": [ 21.666666666666668, 29.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.544856560994717, 28.611592647609854 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.544856560994717, 28.611592647609854 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.544856560994717, 28.611592647609854 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 17.1, "margin": 6.699999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401789174", "401773716", "401773717", "401773709", "401773718", "401773719", "401773720", "401773721", "401773723", "401773724" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 9.25, "event_ids": [ "401868262", "401907511", "401907506", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.25, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401757219", "401767332", "401767341", "401767342", "401767343", "401767259", "401767344", "401767345", "401767346", "401767347", "401767348", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 29.5, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401867692", "401867953", "401862777", "401866649", "401866655" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.275, 24.675 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.75, 24.208333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.6283333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 23, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 17.1, "margin": 6.699999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401789174", "401773716", "401773717", "401773709", "401773718", "401773719", "401773720", "401773721", "401773723", "401773724" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 9.25, "event_ids": [ "401868262", "401907511", "401907506", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.25, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401757219", "401767332", "401767341", "401767342", "401767343", "401767259", "401767344", "401767345", "401767346", "401767347", "401767348", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 29.5, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401867692", "401867953", "401862777", "401866649", "401866655" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.275, 24.675 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.75, 24.208333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.6283333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 23, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867954", "away": "Franklin Pierce Ravens", "home": "Delaware State Hornets", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Franklin Pierce Ravens 0, Delaware State Hornets 34", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Unavailable (Unavailable) / Unavailable (Unavailable)", "ml": "Unavailable / Unavailable", "total": "Unavailable; O Unavailable / U Unavailable", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 23.0 / 31.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/franklin-pierce-ravens-delaware-state-hornets-401867954-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": null, "marketRetrieved": null, "marketConf": { "provider": "Unavailable" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.1525, 24.70916666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.1525, 24.70916666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.1525, 24.70916666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 23.8, 17.1 ], "current_rates": [ 36, 26.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 32.25, 24.75 ], "current_rates": [ 21.666666666666668, 29.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.544856560994717, 28.611592647609854 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.544856560994717, 28.611592647609854 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.544856560994717, 28.611592647609854 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 17.1, "margin": 6.699999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401789174", "401773716", "401773717", "401773709", "401773718", "401773719", "401773720", "401773721", "401773723", "401773724" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 9.25, "event_ids": [ "401868262", "401907511", "401907506", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.25, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401757219", "401767332", "401767341", "401767342", "401767343", "401767259", "401767344", "401767345", "401767346", "401767347", "401767348", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 29.5, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401867692", "401867953", "401862777", "401866649", "401866655" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.275, 24.675 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.75, 24.208333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.6283333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 23, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 23.8, "pa": 17.1, "margin": 6.699999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401789174", "401773716", "401773717", "401773709", "401773718", "401773719", "401773720", "401773721", "401773723", "401773724" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 9.25, "event_ids": [ "401868262", "401907511", "401907506", "401907478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.25, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 7.5, "event_ids": [ "401757219", "401767332", "401767341", "401767342", "401767343", "401767259", "401767344", "401767345", "401767346", "401767347", "401767348", "401767349" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 21.666666666666668, "pa": 29.5, "margin": -7.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401867692", "401867953", "401862777", "401866649", "401866655" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.275, 24.675 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.75, 24.208333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.6283333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 23, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.140833333333333, 31.313333333333336 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 19.833333333333332, 24.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 17.2, 35.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 27.1, 26.5 ], "current_rates": [ 12.333333333333334, 13.666666666666666 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 24.583333333333332, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401767350", "401762462", "401767351", "401767182", "401767352", "401767353", "401767227", "401767354", "401767355", "401767396", "401767348", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 35.6, "margin": -18.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401869127", "401858439", "401858468", "401866656" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 27.1, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401767772", "401767734", "401767698", "401767629", "401767683", "401788997", "401767555", "401767694", "401767707", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 13.666666666666666, "margin": -1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401867991", "401868034", "401867835" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.166666666666664, 25.84166666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 15.433333333333334, 23.96666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.241666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 24.583333333333332, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401767350", "401762462", "401767351", "401767182", "401767352", "401767353", "401767227", "401767354", "401767355", "401767396", "401767348", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 35.6, "margin": -18.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401869127", "401858439", "401858468", "401866656" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 27.1, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401767772", "401767734", "401767698", "401767629", "401767683", "401788997", "401767555", "401767694", "401767707", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 13.666666666666666, "margin": -1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401867991", "401868034", "401867835" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.166666666666664, 25.84166666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 15.433333333333334, 23.96666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.241666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867960", "away": "Howard Bison", "home": "Pennsylvania Quakers", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Howard Bison 20, Pennsylvania Quakers 24", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+14 (-117) / -14 (-107)", "ml": "+427 / -630", "total": "42.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 17.0 / 28.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/howard-bison-pennsylvania-quakers-401867960-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867960", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.623379+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.679292929292927, 26.634343434343435 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.679292929292927, 26.634343434343435 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.679292929292927, 26.634343434343435 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 19.833333333333332, 24.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 17.2, 35.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 10, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.3333333333333333, "prior_rates": [ 27.1, 26.5 ], "current_rates": [ 12.333333333333334, 13.666666666666666 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.083372109830762, 30.711137583013304 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.083372109830762, 30.711137583013304 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.083372109830762, 30.711137583013304 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 24.583333333333332, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401767350", "401762462", "401767351", "401767182", "401767352", "401767353", "401767227", "401767354", "401767355", "401767396", "401767348", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 35.6, "margin": -18.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401869127", "401858439", "401858468", "401866656" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 27.1, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401767772", "401767734", "401767698", "401767629", "401767683", "401788997", "401767555", "401767694", "401767707", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 13.666666666666666, "margin": -1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401867991", "401868034", "401867835" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.166666666666664, 25.84166666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 15.433333333333334, 23.96666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.241666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.833333333333332, "pa": 24.583333333333332, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401767350", "401762462", "401767351", "401767182", "401767352", "401767353", "401767227", "401767354", "401767355", "401767396", "401767348", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 35.6, "margin": -18.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401869127", "401858439", "401858468", "401866656" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 10, "pf": 27.1, "pa": 26.5, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401767772", "401767734", "401767698", "401767629", "401767683", "401788997", "401767555", "401767694", "401767707", "401788996" ] }, "2026": { "games": 3, "pf": 12.333333333333334, "pa": 13.666666666666666, "margin": -1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401867991", "401868034", "401867835" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.166666666666664, 25.84166666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 15.433333333333334, 23.96666666666667 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.241666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 3 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.05833333333333, 28.645833333333336 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 29.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 20.833333333333332, 41 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 33.75, 25.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 24.5, 32.333333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.50189396866811, 35.97662650171959 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.50189396866811, 35.97662650171959 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.50189396866811, 35.97662650171959 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 3.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767189", "401754619", "401767162", "401767337", "401767273", "401767155", "401767271", "401767335", "401767146", "401767187", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.833333333333332, "pa": 41, "margin": -20.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868040", "401867692", "401868033", "401868009", "401858244", "401868025" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767265", "401761599", "401767411", "401767272", "401767412", "401767413", "401767345", "401767355", "401767409", "401767414", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 32.333333333333336, "margin": -7.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401867978", "401866633", "401867979", "401862781", "401866657" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6583333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 3.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767189", "401754619", "401767162", "401767337", "401767273", "401767155", "401767271", "401767335", "401767146", "401767187", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.833333333333332, "pa": 41, "margin": -20.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868040", "401867692", "401868033", "401868009", "401858244", "401868025" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767265", "401761599", "401767411", "401767272", "401767412", "401767413", "401767345", "401767355", "401767409", "401767414", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 32.333333333333336, "margin": -7.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401867978", "401866633", "401867979", "401862781", "401866657" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6583333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "adjustedScore": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867980", "away": "William & Mary Tribe", "home": "North Carolina Central Eagles", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "William & Mary Tribe 17, North Carolina Central Eagles 14", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+3 (-110) / -3 (-113)", "ml": "+130 / -162", "total": "57.5; O -108 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 25.5 / 34.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/william-mary-tribe-north-carolina-central-eagles-401867980-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867980", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.616363+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.333333333333332, 31.979166666666668 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.333333333333332, 31.979166666666668 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.333333333333332, 31.979166666666668 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 29.5, 25.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 20.833333333333332, 41 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 33.75, 25.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 24.5, 32.333333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.50189396866811, 35.97662650171959 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.50189396866811, 35.97662650171959 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.50189396866811, 35.97662650171959 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 3.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767189", "401754619", "401767162", "401767337", "401767273", "401767155", "401767271", "401767335", "401767146", "401767187", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.833333333333332, "pa": 41, "margin": -20.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868040", "401867692", "401868033", "401868009", "401858244", "401868025" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767265", "401761599", "401767411", "401767272", "401767412", "401767413", "401767345", "401767355", "401767409", "401767414", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 32.333333333333336, "margin": -7.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401867978", "401866633", "401867979", "401862781", "401866657" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6583333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 3.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767189", "401754619", "401767162", "401767337", "401767273", "401767155", "401767271", "401767335", "401767146", "401767187", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.833333333333332, "pa": 41, "margin": -20.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868040", "401867692", "401868033", "401868009", "401858244", "401868025" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.75, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 8.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767265", "401761599", "401767411", "401767272", "401767412", "401767413", "401767345", "401767355", "401767409", "401767414", "401767403" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 32.333333333333336, "margin": -7.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401867978", "401866633", "401867979", "401862781", "401866657" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.583333333333336, 29.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.583333333333336, 32.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6583333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "adjustedScore": [ 25.425000000000004, 34.3875 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.416666666666668, 24.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 30.4, 41.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.833333333333332, 25.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.6, 24.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 23, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": 4.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401767292", "401767106", "401767644", "401767645", "401767628", "401767622", "401767607", "401767618", "401767646", "401767600", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -11, "event_ids": [ "401868163", "401868102", "401868075", "401868281", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 25.333333333333332, "margin": -2.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401769891", "401769892", "401767160", "401767594", "401767595", "401767596", "401767597", "401767598", "401767599", "401767600", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 24.4, "margin": 12.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401868209", "401868119", "401868210", "401867686", "401868211" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.4, 39 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6616666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": 4.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401767292", "401767106", "401767644", "401767645", "401767628", "401767622", "401767607", "401767618", "401767646", "401767600", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -11, "event_ids": [ "401868163", "401868102", "401868075", "401868281", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 25.333333333333332, "margin": -2.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401769891", "401769892", "401767160", "401767594", "401767595", "401767596", "401767597", "401767598", "401767599", "401767600", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 24.4, "margin": 12.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401868209", "401868119", "401868210", "401867686", "401868211" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.4, 39 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6616666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": "spread", "odds": -108, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868212", "away": "San Diego Toreros", "home": "Butler Bulldogs", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "Butler Bulldogs +2.5 (-108)", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Bonus Pick", "tier": "Bonus Pick", "status": "win", "final": "San Diego Toreros 10, Butler Bulldogs 41", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-2.5 (-115) / +2.5 (-108)", "ml": "-160 / +129", "total": "57.5; O -118 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 25.5 / 34.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/san-diego-toreros-butler-bulldogs-401868212-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868212", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.695272+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.36363636363636, 31.340909090909086 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.36363636363636, 31.340909090909086 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.36363636363636, 31.340909090909086 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.416666666666668, 24.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 30.4, 41.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.833333333333332, 25.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.6, 24.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.765208983464273, 34.1494590287473 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.765208983464273, 34.1494590287473 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.765208983464273, 34.1494590287473 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 23, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": 4.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401767292", "401767106", "401767644", "401767645", "401767628", "401767622", "401767607", "401767618", "401767646", "401767600", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -11, "event_ids": [ "401868163", "401868102", "401868075", "401868281", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 25.333333333333332, "margin": -2.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401769891", "401769892", "401767160", "401767594", "401767595", "401767596", "401767597", "401767598", "401767599", "401767600", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 24.4, "margin": 12.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401868209", "401868119", "401868210", "401867686", "401868211" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.4, 39 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6616666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.416666666666668, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": 4.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401767292", "401767106", "401767644", "401767645", "401767628", "401767622", "401767607", "401767618", "401767646", "401767600", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -11, "event_ids": [ "401868163", "401868102", "401868075", "401868281", "401868220" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 25.333333333333332, "margin": -2.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401769891", "401769892", "401767160", "401767594", "401767595", "401767596", "401767597", "401767598", "401767599", "401767600", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.6, "pa": 24.4, "margin": 12.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401868209", "401868119", "401868210", "401867686", "401868211" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.875, 23.583333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.4, 39 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6616666666666668, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 25.475833333333334, 34.45333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": "spread", "odds": -108, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.666666666666668, 32.666666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 29.6, 27 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 23.416666666666668, 33.416666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 34.166666666666664, 18.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.666666666666668, "pa": 32.666666666666664, "margin": -2.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401766898", "401754641", "401767388", "401767389", "401767311", "401767362", "401767390", "401767384", "401767391", "401767392", "401767393", "401767394" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 29.6, "pa": 27, "margin": 2.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401868285", "401868942", "401867985", "401868328" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -9.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401767309", "401767225", "401767310", "401767311", "401767312", "401767313", "401767314", "401767315", "401767356", "401767357", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.166666666666664, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 15.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401868297", "401868195", "401868298", "401868299", "401868295" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5899999999999995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.666666666666668, "pa": 32.666666666666664, "margin": -2.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401766898", "401754641", "401767388", "401767389", "401767311", "401767362", "401767390", "401767384", "401767391", "401767392", "401767393", "401767394" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 29.6, "pa": 27, "margin": 2.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401868285", "401868942", "401867985", "401868328" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -9.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401767309", "401767225", "401767310", "401767311", "401767312", "401767313", "401767314", "401767315", "401767356", "401767357", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.166666666666664, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 15.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401868297", "401868195", "401868298", "401868299", "401868295" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5899999999999995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868300", "away": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats", "home": "Alabama A&M Bulldogs", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 17, Alabama A&M Bulldogs 55", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+3 (-103) / -3 (-120)", "ml": "+135 / -168", "total": "48.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 27.0 / 31.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/bethune-cookman-wildcats-alabama-a-m-bulldogs-401868300-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868300", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.829453+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.08901515151515, 30.191287878787875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.08901515151515, 30.191287878787875 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.08901515151515, 30.191287878787875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.666666666666668, 32.666666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 29.6, 27 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 23.416666666666668, 33.416666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 34.166666666666664, 18.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.296713775245237, 33.38541149000864 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.666666666666668, "pa": 32.666666666666664, "margin": -2.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401766898", "401754641", "401767388", "401767389", "401767311", "401767362", "401767390", "401767384", "401767391", "401767392", "401767393", "401767394" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 29.6, "pa": 27, "margin": 2.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401868285", "401868942", "401867985", "401868328" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -9.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401767309", "401767225", "401767310", "401767311", "401767312", "401767313", "401767314", "401767315", "401767356", "401767357", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.166666666666664, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 15.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401868297", "401868195", "401868298", "401868299", "401868295" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5899999999999995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.666666666666668, "pa": 32.666666666666664, "margin": -2.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401766898", "401754641", "401767388", "401767389", "401767311", "401767362", "401767390", "401767384", "401767391", "401767392", "401767393", "401767394" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 29.6, "pa": 27, "margin": 2.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401856767", "401868285", "401868942", "401867985", "401868328" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -9.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401767309", "401767225", "401767310", "401767311", "401767312", "401767313", "401767314", "401767315", "401767356", "401767357", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.166666666666664, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 15.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401867935", "401868297", "401868195", "401868298", "401868299", "401868295" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.541666666666664, 28.041666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.133333333333333, 30.583333333333332 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5899999999999995, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.2475, 31.4025 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 14.583333333333334, 37.916666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 21.2, 25.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 28.25, 33 ], "current_rates": [ 20.166666666666668, 14.166666666666666 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.787872302857949, 32.972549977172235 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.787872302857949, 32.972549977172235 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.787872302857949, 32.972549977172235 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.583333333333334, "pa": 37.916666666666664, "margin": -23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401767579", "401756891", "401767580", "401767566", "401767575", "401767581", "401767533", "401767582", "401767562", "401767255", "401752781" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 25.8, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868149", "401867889", "401868386", "401868387", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.25, "pa": 33, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401767231", "401767529", "401767306", "401767530", "401767531", "401767532", "401767533", "401767534", "401767535", "401767556", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 6.000000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401868336", "401868141", "401868337", "401868338", "401868339" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666668, 33.08333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.683333333333334, 22.983333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.918333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 18, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.583333333333334, "pa": 37.916666666666664, "margin": -23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401767579", "401756891", "401767580", "401767566", "401767575", "401767581", "401767533", "401767582", "401767562", "401767255", "401752781" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 25.8, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868149", "401867889", "401868386", "401868387", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.25, "pa": 33, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401767231", "401767529", "401767306", "401767530", "401767531", "401767532", "401767533", "401767534", "401767535", "401767556", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 6.000000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401868336", "401868141", "401868337", "401868338", "401868339" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666668, 33.08333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.683333333333334, 22.983333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.918333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 18, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868340", "away": "Samford Bulldogs", "home": "Chattanooga Mocs", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Samford Bulldogs 3, Chattanooga Mocs 19", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+11.5 (-110) / -11.5 (-112)", "ml": "+339 / -472", "total": "40.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 18.0 / 32.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/samford-bulldogs-chattanooga-mocs-401868340-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868340", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.893119+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.83712121212121, 29.05871212121212 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.83712121212121, 29.05871212121212 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.83712121212121, 29.05871212121212 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 14.583333333333334, 37.916666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 21.2, 25.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 28.25, 33 ], "current_rates": [ 20.166666666666668, 14.166666666666666 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.787872302857949, 32.972549977172235 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.787872302857949, 32.972549977172235 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.787872302857949, 32.972549977172235 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.583333333333334, "pa": 37.916666666666664, "margin": -23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401767579", "401756891", "401767580", "401767566", "401767575", "401767581", "401767533", "401767582", "401767562", "401767255", "401752781" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 25.8, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868149", "401867889", "401868386", "401868387", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.25, "pa": 33, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401767231", "401767529", "401767306", "401767530", "401767531", "401767532", "401767533", "401767534", "401767535", "401767556", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 6.000000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401868336", "401868141", "401868337", "401868338", "401868339" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666668, 33.08333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.683333333333334, 22.983333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.918333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 18, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.583333333333334, "pa": 37.916666666666664, "margin": -23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401767579", "401756891", "401767580", "401767566", "401767575", "401767581", "401767533", "401767582", "401767562", "401767255", "401752781" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 25.8, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868149", "401867889", "401868386", "401868387", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.25, "pa": 33, "margin": -4.75, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401767231", "401767529", "401767306", "401767530", "401767531", "401767532", "401767533", "401767534", "401767535", "401767556", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 14.166666666666666, "margin": 6.000000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401868336", "401868141", "401868337", "401868338", "401868339" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666668, 33.08333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.683333333333334, 22.983333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.918333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 18, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.819166666666668, 32.45166666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 19.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604688", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.665828+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604688", "official_event_id": 6604688, "scores": [ 3, 19 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.665828+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604688", "official_event_id": 6604688, "scores": [ 3, 19 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.665828+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401869843", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401869843", "away": "Old Dominion Monarchs", "home": "App State Mountaineers", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10 (-112) / -10 (-108)", "ml": "+295 / -375", "total": "47.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 22.5 / 30.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/old-dominion-monarchs-app-state-mountaineers-401869843-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869843", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.898789+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "JJ Harrell", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ] }, { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "TJ Johnson", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.059090909090905, 27.913636363636364 ] }, { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Harrell third receiving yards (9/126) OUT; leading WR TJ Johnson 12/163 QUESTIONABLE. Separate receiver opportunities allow isolated -3 scenarios and joint -6 human sensitivity, with -3 overlap sensitivity. 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Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 19.25, "margin": 13.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401761599", "401754536", "401757271", "401761619", "401761626", "401761631", "401761635", "401761641", "401761649", "401761657", "401761664" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 32.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401867973", "401858221", "401862710", "401869961", "401869956" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401761596", "401761607", "401760379", "401752940", "401761624", "401761629", "401761635", "401761644", "401761652", "401761656", "401761661" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 22.25, "margin": 12.5, "event_ids": [ "401866627", "401864571", "401864574", "401864572" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.25, 22.291666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.025, 33.575 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7183333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "JJ Harrell", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "TJ Johnson", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ] }, { "teamId": "295", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Harrell third receiving yards (9/126) OUT; leading WR TJ Johnson 12/163 QUESTIONABLE. 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Henicle PROBABLE is not presumed replaced.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 19.25, "margin": 13.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752806", "401761599", "401754536", "401757271", "401761619", "401761626", "401761631", "401761635", "401761641", "401761649", "401761657", "401761664" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 32.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401867973", "401858221", "401862710", "401869961", "401869956" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 29.833333333333332, "margin": -4.5, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401761596", "401761607", "401760379", "401752940", "401761624", "401761629", "401761635", "401761644", "401761652", "401761656", "401761661" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 22.25, "margin": 12.5, "event_ids": [ "401866627", "401864571", "401864574", "401864572" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.25, 22.291666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.025, 33.575 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.7183333333333334, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 25.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 22.419166666666666, 30.151666666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 10.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604213", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.669692+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604213", "official_event_id": 6604213, "scores": [ 10, 3 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.669692+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604213", "official_event_id": 6604213, "scores": [ 10, 3 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.669692+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892469", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892469", "away": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home": "Boston Bruins", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-238) / -1.5 (+195)", "ml": "+114 / -135", "total": "5.5; O -120 / U +100", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/philadelphia-flyers-boston-bruins-401892469-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892469", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.888590+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.699024390243903, 3.2921951219512198 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.699024390243903, 3.2921951219512198 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.699024390243903, 3.2921951219512198 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.048780487804878, 2.9634146341463414 ], "current_rates": [ 1.2, 3.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 2.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892469", "away": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home": "Boston Bruins", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Philadelphia Flyers 1, Boston Bruins 5", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-238) / -1.5 (+195)", "ml": "+114 / -135", "total": "5.5; O -120 / U +100", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/philadelphia-flyers-boston-bruins-401892469-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892469", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.888590+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.699024390243903, 3.2921951219512198 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.699024390243903, 3.2921951219512198 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.699024390243903, 3.2921951219512198 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.048780487804878, 2.9634146341463414 ], "current_rates": [ 1.2, 3.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 2.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7235433213689766, 3.128996246021643 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.969505, 3.0914599999999997 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 5.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "retrieved": null, "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020070 } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020070 }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761845", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761845", "away": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "home": "Toronto FC", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-125) / -0.5 (-110)", "ml": "+240 / -105 / draw +270", "total": "3.5; O +135 / U -170", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/cf-montreal-toronto-fc-761845-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761845", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.964496+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761845", "away": "CF Montr\u00e9al", "home": "Toronto FC", "startTime": "1:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "CF Montr\u00e9al 1, Toronto FC 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-125) / -0.5 (-110)", "ml": "+240 / -105 / draw +270", "total": "3.5; O +135 / U -170", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/cf-montreal-toronto-fc-761845-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761845", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.964496+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/torvsmtl-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.096024+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MR", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/torvsmtl-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MR", "scores": [ 1, 2 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.096024+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MR", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/torvsmtl-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MR", "scores": [ 1, 2 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.096024+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401866440", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866440", "away": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "home": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-4.5 (-112) / +4.5 (-108)", "ml": "-198 / +164", "total": "44.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 23.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/miami-oh-redhawks-massachusetts-minutemen-401866440-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866440", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.953320+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.076923076923077, 22 ], "current_rates": [ 26.8, 29.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 11.083333333333334, 38.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 31.8, 17.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 25.076923076923077, "pa": 22, "margin": 3.0769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401762791", "401752818", "401760376", "401762827", "401762873", "401762833", "401762841", "401762874", "401762852", "401762860", "401762865", "401762875", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 29.2, "margin": -2.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401866417", "401856797", "401861970", "401866477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 11.083333333333334, "pa": 38.583333333333336, "margin": -27.5, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762816", "401752830", "401752721", "401762832", "401762837", "401762840", "401762847", "401762851", "401762859", "401762863", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 17.8, "margin": 14, "event_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.4176923076923078, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 25.076923076923077, "pa": 22, "margin": 3.0769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401762791", "401752818", "401760376", "401762827", "401762873", "401762833", "401762841", "401762874", "401762852", "401762860", "401762865", "401762875", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 29.2, "margin": -2.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401866417", "401856797", "401861970", "401866477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 11.083333333333334, "pa": 38.583333333333336, "margin": -27.5, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762816", "401752830", "401752721", "401762832", "401762837", "401762840", "401762847", "401762851", "401762859", "401762863", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 17.8, "margin": 14, "event_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.4176923076923078, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866440", "away": "Miami (OH) RedHawks", "home": "Massachusetts Minutemen", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Miami (OH) RedHawks 20, Massachusetts Minutemen 19", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-4.5 (-112) / +4.5 (-108)", "ml": "-198 / +164", "total": "44.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 23.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/miami-oh-redhawks-massachusetts-minutemen-401866440-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866440", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:37.953320+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.74825174825175, 23.636363636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.076923076923077, 22 ], "current_rates": [ 26.8, 29.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 11.083333333333334, 38.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 31.8, 17.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.398760582263737, 25.51743924255034 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 25.076923076923077, "pa": 22, "margin": 3.0769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401762791", "401752818", "401760376", "401762827", "401762873", "401762833", "401762841", "401762874", "401762852", "401762860", "401762865", "401762875", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 29.2, "margin": -2.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401866417", "401856797", "401861970", "401866477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 11.083333333333334, "pa": 38.583333333333336, "margin": -27.5, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762816", "401752830", "401752721", "401762832", "401762837", "401762840", "401762847", "401762851", "401762859", "401762863", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 17.8, "margin": 14, "event_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.4176923076923078, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 25.076923076923077, "pa": 22, "margin": 3.0769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401762791", "401752818", "401760376", "401762827", "401762873", "401762833", "401762841", "401762874", "401762852", "401762860", "401762865", "401762875", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 29.2, "margin": -2.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858207", "401866417", "401856797", "401861970", "401866477" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 11.083333333333334, "pa": 38.583333333333336, "margin": -27.5, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762816", "401752830", "401752721", "401762832", "401762837", "401762840", "401762847", "401762851", "401762859", "401762863", "401762868" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.8, "pa": 17.8, "margin": 14, "event_ids": [ "401858423", "401866420", "401866424", "401866429", "401866433" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.830128205128204, 16.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.3, 30.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.4176923076923078, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.482756410256407, 23.60314102564103 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.994442386007684, 29.784450617312316 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.994442386007684, 29.784450617312316 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.994442386007684, 29.784450617312316 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 17.25, "margin": 5.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401767593", "401767573", "401754617", "401767592", "401767407", "401767568", "401767561", "401767582", "401767590", "401767586", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 28.5, "margin": -3.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401868186", "401866416", "401868337", "401868390", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.75, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 4, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401767149", "401767150", "401767151", "401767152", "401767153", "401767154", "401767155", "401767176", "401767177", "401767147", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 12.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866614", "401866626", "401866628", "401866637", "401866643", "401866650" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666664, 23 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.416666666666668, 29.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.4083333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 17.25, "margin": 5.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401767593", "401767573", "401754617", "401767592", "401767407", "401767568", "401767561", "401767582", "401767590", "401767586", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 28.5, "margin": -3.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401868186", "401866416", "401868337", "401868390", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.75, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 4, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401767149", "401767150", "401767151", "401767152", "401767153", "401767154", "401767155", "401767176", "401767177", "401767147", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 12.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866614", "401866626", "401866628", "401866637", "401866643", "401866650" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666664, 23 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.416666666666668, 29.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.4083333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866661", "away": "Wofford Terriers", "home": "Elon Phoenix", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Wofford Terriers 16, Elon Phoenix 0", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+4 (-110) / -4 (-113)", "ml": "+149 / -188", "total": "46.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 21.0 / 29.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/wofford-terriers-elon-phoenix-401866661-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866661", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.111799+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.854166666666668, 26.875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.854166666666668, 26.875 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.854166666666668, 26.875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 22.833333333333332, 17.25 ], "current_rates": [ 25.166666666666668, 28.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 28.75, 24.75 ], "current_rates": [ 30, 17.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.994442386007684, 29.784450617312316 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.994442386007684, 29.784450617312316 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.994442386007684, 29.784450617312316 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 17.25, "margin": 5.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401767593", "401767573", "401754617", "401767592", "401767407", "401767568", "401767561", "401767582", "401767590", "401767586", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 28.5, "margin": -3.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401868186", "401866416", "401868337", "401868390", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.75, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 4, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401767149", "401767150", "401767151", "401767152", "401767153", "401767154", "401767155", "401767176", "401767177", "401767147", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 12.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866614", "401866626", "401866628", "401866637", "401866643", "401866650" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666664, 23 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.416666666666668, 29.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.4083333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 17.25, "margin": 5.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767415", "401767593", "401767573", "401754617", "401767592", "401767407", "401767568", "401767561", "401767582", "401767590", "401767586", "401767557" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 28.5, "margin": -3.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868394", "401868186", "401866416", "401868337", "401868390", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.75, "pa": 24.75, "margin": 4, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401767149", "401767150", "401767151", "401767152", "401767153", "401767154", "401767155", "401767176", "401767177", "401767147", "401767178" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 12.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866614", "401866626", "401866628", "401866637", "401866643", "401866650" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.791666666666664, 23 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.416666666666668, 29.25 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.4083333333333332, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 21.195833333333333, 29.03333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 16.0, 0.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604584", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.674463+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604584", "official_event_id": 6604584, "scores": [ 16, 0 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.674463+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604584", "official_event_id": 6604584, "scores": [ 16, 0 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.674463+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867886", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867886", "away": "Southern Illinois Salukis", "home": "South Dakota Coyotes", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10.5 (-124) / -10.5 (+100)", "ml": "+292 / -395", "total": "58.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 31.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/southern-illinois-salukis-south-dakota-coyotes-401867886-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867886", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.147982+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.979166666666664, 30.458333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.979166666666664, 30.458333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.979166666666664, 30.458333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.416666666666664, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 9.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767547", "401752819", "401767235", "401767218", "401767447", "401767511", "401767505", "401767539", "401767499", "401767548", "401767543", "401767445" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 0.8333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401874035", "401867889", "401867890", "401858448", "401867868", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 24.5, "margin": 3, "event_ids": [ "401756853", "401767482", "401767120", "401767541", "401767510", "401767496", "401767448", "401767538", "401767441", "401767506", "401767542", "401767543", "401836195", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39, "pa": 27.5, "margin": 11.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401867883", "401867884", "401860885", "401867885", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333332, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 27, 32.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.39166666666666716, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.416666666666664, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 9.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767547", "401752819", "401767235", "401767218", "401767447", "401767511", "401767505", "401767539", "401767499", "401767548", "401767543", "401767445" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 0.8333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401874035", "401867889", "401867890", "401858448", "401867868", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 24.5, "margin": 3, "event_ids": [ "401756853", "401767482", "401767120", "401767541", "401767510", "401767496", "401767448", "401767538", "401767441", "401767506", "401767542", "401767543", "401836195", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39, "pa": 27.5, "margin": 11.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401867883", "401867884", "401860885", "401867885", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333332, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 27, 32.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.39166666666666716, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867886", "away": "Southern Illinois Salukis", "home": "South Dakota Coyotes", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Southern Illinois Salukis 10, South Dakota Coyotes 31", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10.5 (-124) / -10.5 (+100)", "ml": "+292 / -395", "total": "58.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 31.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/southern-illinois-salukis-south-dakota-coyotes-401867886-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867886", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.147982+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.979166666666664, 30.458333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.979166666666664, 30.458333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.979166666666664, 30.458333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.416666666666664, 26.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 26.5, 25.666666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 14, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 27.5, 24.5 ], "current_rates": [ 39, 27.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.371217835004483, 34.0416712555403 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.371217835004483, 34.0416712555403 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.371217835004483, 34.0416712555403 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.416666666666664, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 9.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767547", "401752819", "401767235", "401767218", "401767447", "401767511", "401767505", "401767539", "401767499", "401767548", "401767543", "401767445" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 0.8333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401874035", "401867889", "401867890", "401858448", "401867868", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 24.5, "margin": 3, "event_ids": [ "401756853", "401767482", "401767120", "401767541", "401767510", "401767496", "401767448", "401767538", "401767441", "401767506", "401767542", "401767543", "401836195", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39, "pa": 27.5, "margin": 11.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401867883", "401867884", "401860885", "401867885", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333332, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 27, 32.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.39166666666666716, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.416666666666664, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 9.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767547", "401752819", "401767235", "401767218", "401767447", "401767511", "401767505", "401767539", "401767499", "401767548", "401767543", "401767445" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 26.5, "pa": 25.666666666666668, "margin": 0.8333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401874035", "401867889", "401867890", "401858448", "401867868", "401867891" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 24.5, "margin": 3, "event_ids": [ "401756853", "401767482", "401767120", "401767541", "401767510", "401767496", "401767448", "401767538", "401767441", "401767506", "401767542", "401767543", "401836195", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39, "pa": 27.5, "margin": 11.5, "event_ids": [ "401867882", "401867883", "401867884", "401860885", "401867885", "401867859" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333332, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 27, 32.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.39166666666666716, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.3375, 31.6 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 40.30155449595924 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 40.30155449595924 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 37.30155449595924 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 40.30155449595924 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 37.30155449595924 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.460465465885747, 37.30155449595924 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 40.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 40.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 8, "pf": 11.875, "pa": 49.25, "margin": -37.375, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401779071", "401773144", "401767400", "401767459", "401773097", "401773992", "401767662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 2.5, "pa": 49.75, "margin": -47.25, "event_ids": [ "401866613", "401909014", "401867966", "401868942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.916666666666668, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767404", "401752833", "401767405", "401767406", "401767183", "401767407", "401767408", "401767346", "401767409", "401767402", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.833333333333332, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401867972", "401867973", "401858220", "401866641", "401867687", "401867918" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.729166666666668, 35.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.916666666666666, 40.291666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.345833333333333, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 5, 53.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 5, 53.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 8, "pf": 11.875, "pa": 49.25, "margin": -37.375, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401779071", "401773144", "401767400", "401767459", "401773097", "401773992", "401767662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 2.5, "pa": 49.75, "margin": -47.25, "event_ids": [ "401866613", "401909014", "401867966", "401868942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.916666666666668, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767404", "401752833", "401767405", "401767406", "401767183", "401767407", "401767408", "401767346", "401767409", "401767402", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.833333333333332, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401867972", "401867973", "401858220", "401866641", "401867687", "401867918" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.729166666666668, 35.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.916666666666666, 40.291666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.345833333333333, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 5, 53.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 5, 53.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867974", "away": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons", "home": "Norfolk State Spartans", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Virginia Lynchburg Dragons 0, Norfolk State Spartans 62", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Unavailable (Unavailable) / Unavailable (Unavailable)", "ml": "Unavailable / Unavailable", "total": "Unavailable; O Unavailable / U Unavailable", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 5.0 / 53.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/virginia-lynchburg-dragons-norfolk-state-spartans-401867974-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": null, "marketRetrieved": null, "marketConf": { "provider": "Unavailable" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.041666666666668, 38.4125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.041666666666668, 38.4125 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.041666666666668, 35.4125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 19.041666666666668, 38.4125 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.041666666666668, 35.4125 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.041666666666668, 35.4125 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 8, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 11.875, 49.25 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 49.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 20.916666666666668, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 30.833333333333332, 27.333333333333332 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19, 38.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19, 38.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 40.30155449595924 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 40.30155449595924 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 37.30155449595924 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 40.30155449595924 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.460465465885747, 37.30155449595924 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.460465465885747, 37.30155449595924 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 40.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 40.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 8, "pf": 11.875, "pa": 49.25, "margin": -37.375, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401779071", "401773144", "401767400", "401767459", "401773097", "401773992", "401767662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 2.5, "pa": 49.75, "margin": -47.25, "event_ids": [ "401866613", "401909014", "401867966", "401868942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.916666666666668, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767404", "401752833", "401767405", "401767406", "401767183", "401767407", "401767408", "401767346", "401767409", "401767402", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.833333333333332, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401867972", "401867973", "401858220", "401866641", "401867687", "401867918" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.729166666666668, 35.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.916666666666666, 40.291666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.345833333333333, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 5, 53.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 5, 53.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2450", "side": "home", "player": "Deljay Bailey", "replacement": "Da'Jean Golmond", "condition": "CONFIRMED limitation reported; conditional workload. Coach expects some Bailey action, not OUT.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://nsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/8/football-spartans-return-home-for-homecoming-against-virginia-lynchburg.aspx", "base_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "isolated_score": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 4.977083333333335, 50.53333333333333 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 8, "pf": 11.875, "pa": 49.25, "margin": -37.375, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401779071", "401773144", "401767400", "401767459", "401773097", "401773992", "401767662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 2.5, "pa": 49.75, "margin": -47.25, "event_ids": [ "401866613", "401909014", "401867966", "401868942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.916666666666668, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767404", "401752833", "401767405", "401767406", "401767183", "401767407", "401767408", "401767346", "401767409", "401767402", "401767397" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.833333333333332, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 3.5, "event_ids": [ "401867972", "401867973", "401858220", "401866641", "401867687", "401867918" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.729166666666668, 35.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.916666666666666, 40.291666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.345833333333333, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 5, 53.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 5, 53.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.977083333333335, 53.53333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 0.0, 62.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604468", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.679823+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604468", "official_event_id": 6604468, "scores": [ 0, 62 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.679823+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604468", "official_event_id": 6604468, "scores": [ 0, 62 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.679823+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868256", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868256", "away": "Drake Bulldogs", "home": "Valparaiso Beacons", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-8.5 (-112) / +8.5 (-110)", "ml": "-400 / +296", "total": "55.5; O -104 / U -119", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 28.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/drake-bulldogs-valparaiso-beacons-401868256-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868256", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.143933+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.333333333333332, 17.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 28, 38.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.333333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 31.6, 23 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 7.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767620", "401767544", "401767541", "401767621", "401767622", "401767606", "401767623", "401767598", "401767624", "401767619", "401767625", "401836195" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28, "pa": 38.6, "margin": -10.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868254", "401868111", "401868255", "401868219", "401868228" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.333333333333332, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401767656", "401767237", "401767502", "401767621", "401767616", "401767649", "401767638", "401767642", "401767646", "401767654", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 23, "margin": 8.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868288", "401867867", "401867857", "401868211", "401868270" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.37166666666666653, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 7.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767620", "401767544", "401767541", "401767621", "401767622", "401767606", "401767623", "401767598", "401767624", "401767619", "401767625", "401836195" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28, "pa": 38.6, "margin": -10.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868254", "401868111", "401868255", "401868219", "401868228" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.333333333333332, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401767656", "401767237", "401767502", "401767621", "401767616", "401767649", "401767638", "401767642", "401767646", "401767654", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 23, "margin": 8.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868288", "401867867", "401867857", "401868211", "401868270" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.37166666666666653, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868256", "away": "Drake Bulldogs", "home": "Valparaiso Beacons", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Drake Bulldogs 13, Valparaiso Beacons 21", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-8.5 (-112) / +8.5 (-110)", "ml": "-400 / +296", "total": "55.5; O -104 / U -119", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 28.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/drake-bulldogs-valparaiso-beacons-401868256-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868256", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.143933+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.454545454545453, 27.06818181818182 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.333333333333332, 17.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 28, 38.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.333333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 31.6, 23 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.374352935913805, 28.156758585673533 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 7.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767620", "401767544", "401767541", "401767621", "401767622", "401767606", "401767623", "401767598", "401767624", "401767619", "401767625", "401836195" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28, "pa": 38.6, "margin": -10.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868254", "401868111", "401868255", "401868219", "401868228" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.333333333333332, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401767656", "401767237", "401767502", "401767621", "401767616", "401767649", "401767638", "401767642", "401767646", "401767654", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 23, "margin": 8.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868288", "401867867", "401867857", "401868211", "401868270" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.37166666666666653, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.333333333333332, "pa": 17.666666666666668, "margin": 7.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767620", "401767544", "401767541", "401767621", "401767622", "401767606", "401767623", "401767598", "401767624", "401767619", "401767625", "401836195" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28, "pa": 38.6, "margin": -10.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868254", "401868111", "401868255", "401868219", "401868228" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.333333333333332, "pa": 35.583333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767655", "401767656", "401767237", "401767502", "401767621", "401767616", "401767649", "401767638", "401767642", "401767646", "401767654", "401767601" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 31.6, "pa": 23, "margin": 8.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868288", "401867867", "401867857", "401868211", "401868270" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.458333333333336, 19 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.5, 35.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.37166666666666653, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.350833333333334, 28.178333333333335 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 13.0, 21.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604682", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.681825+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604682", "official_event_id": 6604682, "scores": [ 13, 21 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.681825+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604682", "official_event_id": 6604682, "scores": [ 13, 21 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.681825+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868282", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868282", "away": "Stetson Hatters", "home": "St. Thomas Tommies", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+22.5 (-110) / -22.5 (-112)", "ml": "+1100 / -3200", "total": "49.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 16.5 / 42.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/stetson-hatters-st-thomas-tommies-401868282-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868282", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.202461+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.272727272727273, 36.214015151515156 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.272727272727273, 36.214015151515156 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.272727272727273, 36.214015151515156 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.833333333333332, 39.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 18.2, 39.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 30.916666666666668, 20.5 ], "current_rates": [ 32.666666666666664, 30.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 36 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 36 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.849563662626814, 41.05754540496646 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.849563662626814, 41.05754540496646 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.849563662626814, 41.05754540496646 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17, 41 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 41 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 39.083333333333336, "margin": -20.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767651", "401767652", "401767529", "401767653", "401767614", "401767604", "401767637", "401767641", "401767650", "401767632", "401767654", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 39.2, "margin": -21.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401872615", "401868284", "401868285", "401868164", "401868264" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.916666666666668, "pa": 20.5, "margin": 10.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401767089", "401767648", "401767645", "401767595", "401767605", "401767649", "401767650", "401767631", "401767624", "401767643", "401767515" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 30.5, "margin": 2.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868279", "401867875", "401868280", "401868159", "401868281", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.666666666666664, 35 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.35, 35.93333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.383333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16.5, 42.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 42.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 39.083333333333336, "margin": -20.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767651", "401767652", "401767529", "401767653", "401767614", "401767604", "401767637", "401767641", "401767650", "401767632", "401767654", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 39.2, "margin": -21.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401872615", "401868284", "401868285", "401868164", "401868264" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.916666666666668, "pa": 20.5, "margin": 10.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401767089", "401767648", "401767645", "401767595", "401767605", "401767649", "401767650", "401767631", "401767624", "401767643", "401767515" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 30.5, "margin": 2.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868279", "401867875", "401868280", "401868159", "401868281", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.666666666666664, 35 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.35, 35.93333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.383333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16.5, 42.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 42.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "adjustedScore": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868282", "away": "Stetson Hatters", "home": "St. Thomas Tommies", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Stetson Hatters 21, St. Thomas Tommies 64", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+22.5 (-110) / -22.5 (-112)", "ml": "+1100 / -3200", "total": "49.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 16.5 / 42.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/stetson-hatters-st-thomas-tommies-401868282-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868282", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.202461+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.272727272727273, 36.214015151515156 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.272727272727273, 36.214015151515156 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.272727272727273, 36.214015151515156 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.833333333333332, 39.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 18.2, 39.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 30.916666666666668, 20.5 ], "current_rates": [ 32.666666666666664, 30.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 36 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 36 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.849563662626814, 41.05754540496646 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.849563662626814, 41.05754540496646 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.849563662626814, 41.05754540496646 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17, 41 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 41 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 39.083333333333336, "margin": -20.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767651", "401767652", "401767529", "401767653", "401767614", "401767604", "401767637", "401767641", "401767650", "401767632", "401767654", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 39.2, "margin": -21.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401872615", "401868284", "401868285", "401868164", "401868264" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.916666666666668, "pa": 20.5, "margin": 10.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401767089", "401767648", "401767645", "401767595", "401767605", "401767649", "401767650", "401767631", "401767624", "401767643", "401767515" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 30.5, "margin": 2.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868279", "401867875", "401868280", "401868159", "401868281", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.666666666666664, 35 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.35, 35.93333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.383333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16.5, 42.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 42.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 39.083333333333336, "margin": -20.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767651", "401767652", "401767529", "401767653", "401767614", "401767604", "401767637", "401767641", "401767650", "401767632", "401767654", "401767647" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 39.2, "margin": -21.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401872615", "401868284", "401868285", "401868164", "401868264" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.916666666666668, "pa": 20.5, "margin": 10.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401767089", "401767648", "401767645", "401767595", "401767605", "401767649", "401767650", "401767631", "401767624", "401767643", "401767515" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.666666666666664, "pa": 30.5, "margin": 2.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868279", "401867875", "401868280", "401868159", "401868281", "401868276" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.666666666666664, 35 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.35, 35.93333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.383333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16.5, 42.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 42.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "adjustedScore": [ 16.625, 42.35 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 21.0, 64.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604636", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.683875+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604636", "official_event_id": 6604636, "scores": [ 21, 64 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.683875+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604636", "official_event_id": 6604636, "scores": [ 21, 64 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.683875+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401871473", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401871473", "away": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks", "home": "Lindenwood Lions", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-2.5 (-125) / +2.5 (+100)", "ml": "-151 / +121", "total": "45.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 26.0 / 25.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/southeast-missouri-state-redhawks-lindenwood-lions-401871473-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871473", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.207381+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.577272727272728, 25.375 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.577272727272728, 25.375 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.577272727272728, 25.375 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.166666666666668, 30.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 19.4, 24.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 24.75, 27 ], "current_rates": [ 17.25, 32.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.73591339553473, 29.131292372178528 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.73591339553473, 29.131292372178528 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.73591339553473, 29.131292372178528 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 30.083333333333332, "margin": -6.916666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401761591", "401767216", "401767217", "401767218", "401767219", "401767220", "401767197", "401767221", "401767168", "401767206", "401767222", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.4, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401856779", "401867890", "401868133", "401871472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.75, "pa": 27, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401761596", "401767161", "401767210", "401762827", "401767211", "401767212", "401767204", "401767213", "401767214", "401767200", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 32.5, "margin": -15.25, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401866622", "401871046", "401866427" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.083333333333336, 27.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.95, 20.825 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5583333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 30.083333333333332, "margin": -6.916666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401761591", "401767216", "401767217", "401767218", "401767219", "401767220", "401767197", "401767221", "401767168", "401767206", "401767222", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.4, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401856779", "401867890", "401868133", "401871472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.75, "pa": 27, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401761596", "401767161", "401767210", "401762827", "401767211", "401767212", "401767204", "401767213", "401767214", "401767200", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 32.5, "margin": -15.25, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401866622", "401871046", "401866427" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.083333333333336, 27.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.95, 20.825 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5583333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "adjustedScore": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401871473", "away": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks", "home": "Lindenwood Lions", "startTime": "2:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 38, Lindenwood Lions 27", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-2.5 (-125) / +2.5 (+100)", "ml": "-151 / +121", "total": "45.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 26.0 / 25.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/southeast-missouri-state-redhawks-lindenwood-lions-401871473-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871473", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.207381+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.577272727272728, 25.375 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.577272727272728, 25.375 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.577272727272728, 25.375 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.166666666666668, 30.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 19.4, 24.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 24.75, 27 ], "current_rates": [ 17.25, 32.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.73591339553473, 29.131292372178528 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.73591339553473, 29.131292372178528 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.73591339553473, 29.131292372178528 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 30.083333333333332, "margin": -6.916666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401761591", "401767216", "401767217", "401767218", "401767219", "401767220", "401767197", "401767221", "401767168", "401767206", "401767222", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.4, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401856779", "401867890", "401868133", "401871472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.75, "pa": 27, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401761596", "401767161", "401767210", "401762827", "401767211", "401767212", "401767204", "401767213", "401767214", "401767200", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 32.5, "margin": -15.25, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401866622", "401871046", "401866427" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.083333333333336, 27.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.95, 20.825 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5583333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 30.083333333333332, "margin": -6.916666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401761591", "401767216", "401767217", "401767218", "401767219", "401767220", "401767197", "401767221", "401767168", "401767206", "401767222", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.4, "pa": 24.4, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401867855", "401856779", "401867890", "401868133", "401871472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.75, "pa": 27, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767209", "401761596", "401767161", "401767210", "401762827", "401767211", "401767212", "401767204", "401767213", "401767214", "401767200", "401767215" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 32.5, "margin": -15.25, "event_ids": [ "401868169", "401866622", "401871046", "401866427" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.083333333333336, 27.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.95, 20.825 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5583333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "adjustedScore": [ 26.075, 25.062499999999996 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 38.0, 27.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604402", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.686874+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604402", "official_event_id": 6604402, "scores": [ 38, 27 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.686874+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604402", "official_event_id": 6604402, "scores": [ 38, 27 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.686874+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761846", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761846", "away": "New York City FC", "home": "Chicago Fire FC", "startTime": "2:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-120) / -0.5 (-115)", "ml": "+240 / -105 / draw +270", "total": "3.5; O +130 / U -170", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/new-york-city-fc-chicago-fire-fc-761846-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761846", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.330521+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761846", "away": "New York City FC", "home": "Chicago Fire FC", "startTime": "2:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "New York City FC 1, Chicago Fire FC 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-120) / -0.5 (-115)", "ml": "+240 / -105 / draw +270", "total": "3.5; O +130 / U -170", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/new-york-city-fc-chicago-fire-fc-761846-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761846", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.330521+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 29.28219696969697 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.43181818181818, 29.28219696969697 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.166666666666668, 26.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 27.8, 40.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 23.083333333333332, 38.333333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 37.5, 37.666666666666664 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 32.54927689695486 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 32.54927689695486 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.320267531058295, 32.54927689695486 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "isolated_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 26.416666666666668, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401752947", "401767089", "401767090", "401760375", "401767091", "401767122", "401767092", "401767093", "401767094", "401767095", "401767096", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 40.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401856768", "401868093", "401868051", "401868094" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.083333333333332, "pa": 38.333333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401756879", "401767159", "401767160", "401767158", "401767133", "401767128", "401767065", "401767102", "401767110", "401767087", "401767118" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.5, "pa": 37.666666666666664, "margin": -0.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401868158", "401856785", "401868168", "401868155", "401868077" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.156666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "adjustedScore": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868095", "away": "Idaho Vandals", "home": "Weber State Wildcats", "startTime": "3:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Idaho Vandals 27, Weber State Wildcats 38", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (-121) / +1.5 (-103)", "ml": "-139 / +112", "total": "69.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 32.5 / 33.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/idaho-vandals-weber-state-wildcats-401868095-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868095", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.340107+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 29.28219696969697 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 32.28219696969697 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.43181818181818, 29.28219696969697 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.43181818181818, 29.28219696969697 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.166666666666668, 26.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 27.8, 40.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 23.083333333333332, 38.333333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 37.5, 37.666666666666664 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 32.54927689695486 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 35.54927689695486 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.320267531058295, 32.54927689695486 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.320267531058295, 32.54927689695486 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "isolated_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 26.416666666666668, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401752947", "401767089", "401767090", "401760375", "401767091", "401767122", "401767092", "401767093", "401767094", "401767095", "401767096", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 40.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401856768", "401868093", "401868051", "401868094" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.083333333333332, "pa": 38.333333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401756879", "401767159", "401767160", "401767158", "401767133", "401767128", "401767065", "401767102", "401767110", "401767087", "401767118" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.5, "pa": 37.666666666666664, "margin": -0.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401868158", "401856785", "401868168", "401868155", "401868077" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.156666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2692", "side": "home", "player": "Marvin Session", "replacement": "Tate Kjar / Noah Kjar and remaining receivers", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: missed Oct3 hamstring; Oct10 status not confirmed", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://weberstatesports.com/news/2026/10/6/football-game-7-wildcats-return-home-to-host-vandals-saturday-at-1-00", "base_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "isolated_score": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 32.39833333333333, 30.193333333333335 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.166666666666668, "pa": 26.416666666666668, "margin": -1.25, "event_ids": [ "401752947", "401767089", "401767090", "401760375", "401767091", "401767122", "401767092", "401767093", "401767094", "401767095", "401767096", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 40.4, "margin": -12.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401856768", "401868093", "401868051", "401868094" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.083333333333332, "pa": 38.333333333333336, "margin": -15.250000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401756879", "401767159", "401767160", "401767158", "401767133", "401767128", "401767065", "401767102", "401767110", "401767087", "401767118" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.5, "pa": 37.666666666666664, "margin": -0.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401868158", "401856785", "401868168", "401868155", "401868077" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 31.75, 24.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.733333333333334, 38.95 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.156666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "adjustedScore": [ 32.39833333333333, 33.193333333333335 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 27.0, 38.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604954", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.689994+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604954", "official_event_id": 6604954, "scores": [ 27, 38 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.689994+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604954", "official_event_id": 6604954, "scores": [ 27, 38 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.689994+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868360", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868360", "away": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes", "home": "Alcorn State Braves", "startTime": "3:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Unavailable (Unavailable) / Unavailable (Unavailable)", "ml": "Unavailable / Unavailable", "total": "Unavailable; O Unavailable / U Unavailable", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 67.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/arkansas-baptist-buffaloes-alcorn-state-braves-401868360-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": null, "marketRetrieved": null, "marketConf": { "provider": "Unavailable" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 2, "current_games": 1, "current_weight": 0.14285714285714285, "prior_rates": [ 10, 44 ], "current_rates": [ 0, 88 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.25, 23.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 39, 41.333333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 41.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 41.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 39 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 39 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "conditional_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 2, "pf": 10, "pa": 44, "margin": -34, "event_ids": [ "401767468", "401777301" ] }, "2026": { "games": 1, "pf": 0, "pa": 88, "margin": -88, "event_ids": [ "401869150" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.25, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 1.0833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401767369", "401767309", "401752701", "401767370", "401767371", "401767372", "401767373", "401767374", "401767375", "401767376", "401767377", "401767378" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39, "pa": 41.333333333333336, "margin": -2.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401896385", "401868356", "401868355", "401868151", "401868358", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -10, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 3, 67.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 67.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "conditional_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 2, "pf": 10, "pa": 44, "margin": -34, "event_ids": [ "401767468", "401777301" ] }, "2026": { "games": 1, "pf": 0, "pa": 88, "margin": -88, "event_ids": [ "401869150" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.25, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 1.0833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401767369", "401767309", "401752701", "401767370", "401767371", "401767372", "401767373", "401767374", "401767375", "401767376", "401767377", "401767378" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39, "pa": 41.333333333333336, "margin": -2.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401896385", "401868356", "401868355", "401868151", "401868358", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -10, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 3, 67.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 67.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868360", "away": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes", "home": "Alcorn State Braves", "startTime": "3:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Arkansas Baptist Buffaloes 7, Alcorn State Braves 63", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Unavailable (Unavailable) / Unavailable (Unavailable)", "ml": "Unavailable / Unavailable", "total": "Unavailable; O Unavailable / U Unavailable", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 67.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/arkansas-baptist-buffaloes-alcorn-state-braves-401868360-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": null, "marketRetrieved": null, "marketConf": { "provider": "Unavailable" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.660714285714285, 41.70535714285714 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 2, "current_games": 1, "current_weight": 0.14285714285714285, "prior_rates": [ 10, 44 ], "current_rates": [ 0, 88 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.25, 23.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 39, 41.333333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 41.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 41.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.532102671551254, 38.8478786750167 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 39 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 39 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "conditional_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 2, "pf": 10, "pa": 44, "margin": -34, "event_ids": [ "401767468", "401777301" ] }, "2026": { "games": 1, "pf": 0, "pa": 88, "margin": -88, "event_ids": [ "401869150" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.25, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 1.0833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401767369", "401767309", "401752701", "401767370", "401767371", "401767372", "401767373", "401767374", "401767375", "401767376", "401767377", "401767378" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39, "pa": 41.333333333333336, "margin": -2.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401896385", "401868356", "401868355", "401868151", "401868358", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -10, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 3, 67.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 67.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "conditional_score": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 2, "pf": 10, "pa": 44, "margin": -34, "event_ids": [ "401767468", "401777301" ] }, "2026": { "games": 1, "pf": 0, "pa": 88, "margin": -88, "event_ids": [ "401869150" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.25, "pa": 23.166666666666668, "margin": 1.0833333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401767369", "401767309", "401752701", "401767370", "401767371", "401767372", "401767373", "401767374", "401767375", "401767376", "401767377", "401767378" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 39, "pa": 41.333333333333336, "margin": -2.3333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401896385", "401868356", "401868355", "401868151", "401868358", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.583333333333336, 34.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.666666666666668, 63.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -10, "class_adjustment": [ -7, 7 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 1, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": false, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": true } }, "display_base": [ 3, 67.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 67.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3, 67.3125 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 7.0, 63.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604875", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.692004+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604875", "official_event_id": 6604875, "scores": [ 7, 63 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.692004+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604875", "official_event_id": 6604875, "scores": [ 7, 63 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.692004+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868382", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868382", "away": "Western Carolina Catamounts", "home": "Mercer Bears", "startTime": "3:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+6 (-110) / -6 (-112)", "ml": "+183 / -233", "total": "57.5; O -119 / U -104", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 27.0 / 37.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/western-carolina-catamounts-mercer-bears-401868382-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868382", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.394891+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 38.583333333333336, 33.5 ], "current_rates": [ 34.5, 33.833333333333336 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.166666666666664, 25.5 ], "current_rates": [ 32.833333333333336, 17 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28, 35 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 35 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26, 39 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 39 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.583333333333336, "pa": 33.5, "margin": 5.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754620", "401767150", "401767580", "401767142", "401767592", "401767567", "401767584", "401767534", "401767578", "401767563", "401767591" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.5, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": 0.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401917058", "401856786", "401868275", "401868346", "401868391" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.166666666666664, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767573", "401767574", "401767558", "401767575", "401767576", "401767577", "401767570", "401767578", "401767556", "401752774", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 17, "margin": 15.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401874042", "401868274", "401868374", "401858228", "401868052", "401868381" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.075, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.583333333333336, "pa": 33.5, "margin": 5.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754620", "401767150", "401767580", "401767142", "401767592", "401767567", "401767584", "401767534", "401767578", "401767563", "401767591" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.5, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": 0.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401917058", "401856786", "401868275", "401868346", "401868391" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.166666666666664, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767573", "401767574", "401767558", "401767575", "401767576", "401767577", "401767570", "401767578", "401767556", "401752774", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 17, "margin": 15.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401874042", "401868274", "401868374", "401858228", "401868052", "401868381" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.075, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868382", "away": "Western Carolina Catamounts", "home": "Mercer Bears", "startTime": "3:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Western Carolina Catamounts 14, Mercer Bears 17", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+6 (-110) / -6 (-112)", "ml": "+183 / -233", "total": "57.5; O -119 / U -104", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 27.0 / 37.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/western-carolina-catamounts-mercer-bears-401868382-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868382", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.394891+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.145833333333336, 34.833333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 38.583333333333336, 33.5 ], "current_rates": [ 34.5, 33.833333333333336 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.166666666666664, 25.5 ], "current_rates": [ 32.833333333333336, 17 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28, 35 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 35 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.066899806947404, 39.08951665724522 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26, 39 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 39 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.583333333333336, "pa": 33.5, "margin": 5.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754620", "401767150", "401767580", "401767142", "401767592", "401767567", "401767584", "401767534", "401767578", "401767563", "401767591" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.5, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": 0.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401917058", "401856786", "401868275", "401868346", "401868391" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.166666666666664, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767573", "401767574", "401767558", "401767575", "401767576", "401767577", "401767570", "401767578", "401767556", "401752774", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 17, "margin": 15.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401874042", "401868274", "401868374", "401858228", "401868052", "401868381" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.075, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.583333333333336, "pa": 33.5, "margin": 5.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754620", "401767150", "401767580", "401767142", "401767592", "401767567", "401767584", "401767534", "401767578", "401767563", "401767591" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 34.5, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": 0.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401917058", "401856786", "401868275", "401868346", "401868391" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.166666666666664, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401767572", "401767573", "401767574", "401767558", "401767575", "401767576", "401767577", "401767570", "401767578", "401767556", "401752774", "401836218" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 17, "margin": 15.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401874042", "401868274", "401868374", "401858228", "401868052", "401868381" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 32.04166666666667, 34.83333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.75, 33.333333333333336 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.075, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 26.820833333333336, 37.65833333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 18.333333333333332, 38.666666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 15, 34.166666666666664 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.818181818181817, 23.363636363636363 ], "current_rates": [ 23.2, 48.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.333333333333332, "pa": 38.666666666666664, "margin": -20.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767425", "401767304", "401767426", "401767427", "401767313", "401767429", "401767374", "401767391", "401767424", "401767366", "401767430", "401767428" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 15, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -19.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868962", "401866411", "401868963", "401868964", "401868327", "401868965" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.818181818181817, "pa": 23.363636363636363, "margin": 2.4545454545454533, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401754530", "401767458", "401767427", "401767381", "401767418", "401767459", "401767375", "401767365", "401767457", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 48.4, "margin": -25.2, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401868967", "401864505", "401868358", "401862790" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.848484848484848, 32.24242424242424 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.7, 28.68333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6754545454545455, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.333333333333332, "pa": 38.666666666666664, "margin": -20.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767425", "401767304", "401767426", "401767427", "401767313", "401767429", "401767374", "401767391", "401767424", "401767366", "401767430", "401767428" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 15, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -19.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868962", "401866411", "401868963", "401868964", "401868327", "401868965" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.818181818181817, "pa": 23.363636363636363, "margin": 2.4545454545454533, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401754530", "401767458", "401767427", "401767381", "401767418", "401767459", "401767375", "401767365", "401767457", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 48.4, "margin": -25.2, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401868967", "401864505", "401868358", "401862790" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.848484848484848, 32.24242424242424 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.7, 28.68333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6754545454545455, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 24.598787878787878, 33.63833333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 18.333333333333332, 38.666666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 15, 34.166666666666664 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.818181818181817, 23.363636363636363 ], "current_rates": [ 23.2, 48.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.333333333333332, "pa": 38.666666666666664, "margin": -20.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767425", "401767304", "401767426", "401767427", "401767313", "401767429", "401767374", "401767391", "401767424", "401767366", "401767430", "401767428" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 15, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -19.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868962", "401866411", "401868963", "401868964", "401868327", "401868965" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.818181818181817, "pa": 23.363636363636363, "margin": 2.4545454545454533, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401754530", "401767458", "401767427", "401767381", "401767418", "401767459", "401767375", "401767365", "401767457", "401767358" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 48.4, "margin": -25.2, "event_ids": [ "401867977", "401868967", "401864505", "401868358", "401862790" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.848484848484848, 32.24242424242424 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.7, 28.68333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.6754545454545455, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 33.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "145", "side": "away", "player": "Kewan Lacy", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "adjustedScore": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "145", "side": "away", "player": "Kewan Lacy", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 26.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 23.17047060082963, 32.49012825103803 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "145", "side": "away", "player": "Kewan Lacy", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 37.25, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 17.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752672", "401752686", "401752700", "401752711", "401752719", "401752733", "401752742", "401752750", "401752756", "401752761", "401752769", "401752788" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 35.5, "pa": 30.75, "margin": 4.75, "event_ids": [ "401856661", "401856676", "401856688", "401856699" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 39.416666666666664, "pa": 21.916666666666668, "margin": 17.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401752695", "401752704", "401752716", "401752725", "401752726", "401752745", "401752752", "401752758", "401752764", "401752782", "401752791" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 25, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401856669", "401856684", "401856695", "401856698", "401856705" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4016666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "145", "side": "away", "player": "Kewan Lacy", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 37.25, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 17.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752672", "401752686", "401752700", "401752711", "401752719", "401752733", "401752742", "401752750", "401752756", "401752761", "401752769", "401752788" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 35.5, "pa": 30.75, "margin": 4.75, "event_ids": [ "401856661", "401856676", "401856688", "401856699" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 39.416666666666664, "pa": 21.916666666666668, "margin": 17.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752679", "401752695", "401752704", "401752716", "401752725", "401752726", "401752745", "401752752", "401752758", "401752764", "401752782", "401752791" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.4, "pa": 25, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401856669", "401856684", "401856695", "401856698", "401856705" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.583333333333336, 29.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.25, 28.075 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4016666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "adjustedScore": [ 30.318333333333335, 30.010833333333334 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 52.0, 17.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640769", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.701837+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640769", "official_event_id": 6640769, "scores": [ 52, 17 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.701837+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640769", "official_event_id": 6640769, "scores": [ 52, 17 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.701837+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401856825", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401856825", "away": "Houston Cougars", "home": "Kansas State Wildcats", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+2.5 (-110) / -2.5 (-110)", "ml": "+114 / -135", "total": "54.5; O -118 / U -102", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.0 / 29.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/houston-cougars-kansas-state-wildcats-401856825-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856825", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.571507+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.333333333333332, 21.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 41, 19.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 29.416666666666668, 26.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 40.5, 15.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 21.833333333333332, "margin": 6.5, "event_ids": [ "401756852", "401756884", "401756893", "401752939", "401756913", "401756920", "401756925", "401756929", "401756938", "401756946", "401756957", "401756962" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.2, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856787", "401856811", "401856806", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.416666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 2.75, "event_ids": [ "401756846", "401756855", "401756882", "401756888", "401756906", "401756911", "401756919", "401756932", "401756941", "401756952", "401756960", "401756965" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 40.5, "pa": 15.25, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401856771", "401856781", "401856792", "401856814" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 25.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.125, 30.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.030000000000000072, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 21.833333333333332, "margin": 6.5, "event_ids": [ "401756852", "401756884", "401756893", "401752939", "401756913", "401756920", "401756925", "401756929", "401756938", "401756946", "401756957", "401756962" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.2, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856787", "401856811", "401856806", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.416666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 2.75, "event_ids": [ "401756846", "401756855", "401756882", "401756888", "401756906", "401756911", "401756919", "401756932", "401756941", "401756952", "401756960", "401756965" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 40.5, "pa": 15.25, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401856771", "401856781", "401856792", "401856814" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 25.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.125, 30.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.030000000000000072, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401856825", "away": "Houston Cougars", "home": "Kansas State Wildcats", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Houston Cougars 35, Kansas State Wildcats 16", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+2.5 (-110) / -2.5 (-110)", "ml": "+114 / -135", "total": "54.5; O -118 / U -102", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.0 / 29.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/houston-cougars-kansas-state-wildcats-401856825-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856825", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.571507+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.345454545454547, 28.12954545454545 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.333333333333332, 21.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 41, 19.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 29.416666666666668, 26.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 40.5, 15.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.83359118045827, 32.002946950189724 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 21.833333333333332, "margin": 6.5, "event_ids": [ "401756852", "401756884", "401756893", "401752939", "401756913", "401756920", "401756925", "401756929", "401756938", "401756946", "401756957", "401756962" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.2, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856787", "401856811", "401856806", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.416666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 2.75, "event_ids": [ "401756846", "401756855", "401756882", "401756888", "401756906", "401756911", "401756919", "401756932", "401756941", "401756952", "401756960", "401756965" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 40.5, "pa": 15.25, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401856771", "401856781", "401856792", "401856814" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 25.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.125, 30.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.030000000000000072, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.333333333333332, "pa": 21.833333333333332, "margin": 6.5, "event_ids": [ "401756852", "401756884", "401756893", "401752939", "401756913", "401756920", "401756925", "401756929", "401756938", "401756946", "401756957", "401756962" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.2, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856787", "401856811", "401856806", "401856819" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.416666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": 2.75, "event_ids": [ "401756846", "401756855", "401756882", "401756888", "401756906", "401756911", "401756919", "401756932", "401756941", "401756952", "401756960", "401756965" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 40.5, "pa": 15.25, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401856771", "401856781", "401856792", "401856814" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 25.625 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.125, 30.15 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.030000000000000072, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.7825, 29.4175 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 35.0, 16.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604068", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.704010+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604068", "official_event_id": 6604068, "scores": [ 35, 16 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.704010+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604068", "official_event_id": 6604068, "scores": [ 35, 16 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.704010+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401858255", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858255", "away": "Duke Blue Devils", "home": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-6.5 (-115) / +6.5 (-105)", "ml": "-245 / +200", "total": "44.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 32.5 / 24.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/duke-blue-devils-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets-401858255-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858255", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.607839+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 34, 28.692307692307693 ], "current_rates": [ 36.25, 11 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 33.083333333333336, 25 ], "current_rates": [ 27, 26 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34, "pa": 28.692307692307693, "margin": 5.307692307692307, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401752825", "401754534", "401754538", "401754545", "401754551", "401754566", "401754577", "401754590", "401754593", "401754600", "401754610", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.25, "pa": 11, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401858217", "401858231", "401858244" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.083333333333336, "pa": 25, "margin": 8.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754375", "401754622", "401754623", "401754542", "401754546", "401754560", "401754566", "401754571", "401754579", "401754592", "401754601", "401752786" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27, "pa": 26, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401856776", "401856681", "401858228", "401858240" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.125, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.1474358974358974, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34, "pa": 28.692307692307693, "margin": 5.307692307692307, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401752825", "401754534", "401754538", "401754545", "401754551", "401754566", "401754577", "401754590", "401754593", "401754600", "401754610", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.25, "pa": 11, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401858217", "401858231", "401858244" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.083333333333336, "pa": 25, "margin": 8.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754375", "401754622", "401754623", "401754542", "401754546", "401754560", "401754566", "401754571", "401754579", "401754592", "401754601", "401752786" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27, "pa": 26, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401856776", "401856681", "401858228", "401858240" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.125, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.1474358974358974, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "adjustedScore": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858255", "away": "Duke Blue Devils", "home": "Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Duke Blue Devils 25, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 28", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-6.5 (-115) / +6.5 (-105)", "ml": "-245 / +200", "total": "44.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 32.5 / 24.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/duke-blue-devils-georgia-tech-yellow-jackets-401858255-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858255", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.607839+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.4, 26.88269230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 34, 28.692307692307693 ], "current_rates": [ 36.25, 11 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 33.083333333333336, 25 ], "current_rates": [ 27, 26 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.222363923104066, 31.56861852148741 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34, "pa": 28.692307692307693, "margin": 5.307692307692307, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401752825", "401754534", "401754538", "401754545", "401754551", "401754566", "401754577", "401754590", "401754593", "401754600", "401754610", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.25, "pa": 11, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401858217", "401858231", "401858244" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.083333333333336, "pa": 25, "margin": 8.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754375", "401754622", "401754623", "401754542", "401754546", "401754560", "401754566", "401754571", "401754579", "401754592", "401754601", "401752786" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27, "pa": 26, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401856776", "401856681", "401858228", "401858240" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.125, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.1474358974358974, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34, "pa": 28.692307692307693, "margin": 5.307692307692307, "event_ids": [ "401754517", "401752825", "401754534", "401754538", "401754545", "401754551", "401754566", "401754577", "401754590", "401754593", "401754600", "401754610", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36.25, "pa": 11, "margin": 25.25, "event_ids": [ "401858209", "401858217", "401858231", "401858244" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33.083333333333336, "pa": 25, "margin": 8.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754375", "401754622", "401754623", "401754542", "401754546", "401754560", "401754566", "401754571", "401754579", "401754592", "401754601", "401752786" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27, "pa": 26, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401856776", "401856681", "401858228", "401858240" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.5, 30.887820512820515 ], "current_matchup": [ 31.125, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.1474358974358974, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "adjustedScore": [ 32.4599358974359, 24.296474358974358 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.833333333333332, 29.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 17.4, 38.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 42, 17.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 41.2, 11.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 16, 38 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 38 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "adjusted_score": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "conditional_score": [ 11.707627783238692, 43.6603153339866 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401754526", "401754533", "401754539", "401754549", "401754561", "401754567", "401754572", "401754582", "401754588", "401754599", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.4, "pa": 38.2, "margin": -20.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401858206", "401858231", "401858240", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 42, "pa": 17.583333333333332, "margin": 24.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754522", "401752707", "401752848", "401752717", "401757165", "401754562", "401752871", "401754583", "401757166", "401754597", "401754604", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 11.8, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858438", "401859184", "401858453", "401858467", "401858250" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -8.495000000000003, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 8, 47.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8, 47.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401754526", "401754533", "401754539", "401754549", "401754561", "401754567", "401754572", "401754582", "401754588", "401754599", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.4, "pa": 38.2, "margin": -20.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401858206", "401858231", "401858240", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 42, "pa": 17.583333333333332, "margin": 24.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754522", "401752707", "401752848", "401752717", "401757165", "401754562", "401752871", "401754583", "401757166", "401754597", "401754604", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 11.8, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858438", "401859184", "401858453", "401858467", "401858250" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -8.495000000000003, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 8, 47.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8, 47.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.833333333333332, 29.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 17.4, 38.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 42, 17.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 41.2, 11.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 16, 38 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 38 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 11.5, 43.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 11.5, 43.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401754526", "401754533", "401754539", "401754549", "401754561", "401754567", "401754572", "401754582", "401754588", "401754599", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.4, "pa": 38.2, "margin": -20.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401858206", "401858231", "401858240", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 42, "pa": 17.583333333333332, "margin": 24.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754522", "401752707", "401752848", "401752717", "401757165", "401754562", "401752871", "401754583", "401757166", "401754597", "401754604", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 11.8, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858438", "401859184", "401858453", "401858467", "401858250" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -8.495000000000003, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 8, 47.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8, 47.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.833333333333332, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401754526", "401754533", "401754539", "401754549", "401754561", "401754567", "401754572", "401754582", "401754588", "401754599", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.4, "pa": 38.2, "margin": -20.800000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401858206", "401858231", "401858240", "401858251" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 42, "pa": 17.583333333333332, "margin": 24.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401754522", "401752707", "401752848", "401752717", "401757165", "401754562", "401752871", "401754583", "401757166", "401754597", "401754604", "401754614" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 11.8, "margin": 29.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858438", "401859184", "401858453", "401858467", "401858250" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.208333333333332, 35.583333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 14.6, 39.7 ], "bounded_mismatch": -8.495000000000003, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 8, 47.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8, 47.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 7.909166666666662, 47.63666666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 7.0, 58.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604110", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.708066+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604110", "official_event_id": 6604110, "scores": [ 7, 58 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.708066+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604110", "official_event_id": 6604110, "scores": [ 7, 58 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.708066+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401858259", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858259", "away": "Virginia Tech Hokies", "home": "California Golden Bears", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-10 (-110) / +10 (-110)", "ml": "-375 / +295", "total": "53.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 30.5 / 25.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/virginia-tech-hokies-california-golden-bears-401858259-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858259", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.647682+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 20.386363636363633 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.416666666666668, 30.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 41.2, 19.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.833333333333332, 26.5 ], "current_rates": [ 27, 26.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 23.873504124147136 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -8.75, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752695", "401754536", "401754617", "401754548", "401754556", "401754560", "401754372", "401754580", "401754594", "401754603", "401754613" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.833333333333332, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401754530", "401752840", "401754540", "401754544", "401754551", "401754371", "401754372", "401754576", "401754585", "401754599", "401754609" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27, "pa": 26.6, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.3916666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -8.75, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752695", "401754536", "401754617", "401754548", "401754556", "401754560", "401754372", "401754580", "401754594", "401754603", "401754613" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.833333333333332, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401754530", "401752840", "401754540", "401754544", "401754551", "401754371", "401754372", "401754576", "401754585", "401754599", "401754609" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27, "pa": 26.6, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.3916666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "adjustedScore": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858259", "away": "Virginia Tech Hokies", "home": "California Golden Bears", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Virginia Tech Hokies 20, California Golden Bears 25", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-10 (-110) / +10 (-110)", "ml": "-375 / +295", "total": "53.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 30.5 / 25.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/virginia-tech-hokies-california-golden-bears-401858259-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858259", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.647682+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 20.386363636363633 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 26.386363636363633 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.727272727272727, 23.386363636363633 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.416666666666668, 30.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 41.2, 19.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.833333333333332, 26.5 ], "current_rates": [ 27, 26.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 23.873504124147136 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 29.873504124147136 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.129854652453645, 26.873504124147136 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -8.75, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752695", "401754536", "401754617", "401754548", "401754556", "401754560", "401754372", "401754580", "401754594", "401754603", "401754613" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.833333333333332, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401754530", "401752840", "401754540", "401754544", "401754551", "401754371", "401754372", "401754576", "401754585", "401754599", "401754609" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27, "pa": 26.6, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.3916666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 19.558333333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] }, { "teamId": "25", "side": "home", "player": "Adam Mohammed", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.320833333333336, 22.558333333333334 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -8.75, "event_ids": [ "401752680", "401752695", "401754536", "401754617", "401754548", "401754556", "401754560", "401754372", "401754580", "401754594", "401754603", "401754613" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 41.2, "pa": 19.8, "margin": 21.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858211", "401858221", "401858232", "401858242", "401858245" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.833333333333332, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401754530", "401752840", "401754540", "401754544", "401754551", "401754371", "401754372", "401754576", "401754585", "401754599", "401754609" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27, "pa": 26.6, "margin": 0.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858216", "401858233", "401858234", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.958333333333336, 27.5 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.900000000000006, 23.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.3916666666666673, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "adjustedScore": [ 30.320833333333336, 25.558333333333334 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 20.0, 25.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603804", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.711734+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603804", "official_event_id": 6603804, "scores": [ 20, 25 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.711734+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603804", "official_event_id": 6603804, "scores": [ 20, 25 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.711734+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401858480", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858480", "away": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "home": "Michigan State Spartans", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-2.5 (-120) / +2.5 (+100)", "ml": "-135 / +114", "total": "48.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 27.5 / 19.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/illinois-fighting-illini-michigan-state-spartans-401858480-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858480", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.663427+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.333333333333332, 23.25 ], "current_rates": [ 30.6, 26 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.583333333333332, 29.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 18.2, 23.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 27.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 6.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752795", "401752825", "401752829", "401752843", "401752850", "401752861", "401752865", "401752880", "401752891", "401752906", "401752915", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.6, "pa": 26, "margin": 4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401858217", "401858448", "401858465", "401858472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.583333333333332, "pa": 29.916666666666668, "margin": -5.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401752816", "401752834", "401752847", "401752860", "401752863", "401752878", "401752881", "401752888", "401752903", "401752913", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 23.2, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401858440", "401858453", "401858464", "401858479" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.625, 23.916666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.9, 22.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.101666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 19.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 6.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752795", "401752825", "401752829", "401752843", "401752850", "401752861", "401752865", "401752880", "401752891", "401752906", "401752915", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.6, "pa": 26, "margin": 4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401858217", "401858448", "401858465", "401858472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.583333333333332, "pa": 29.916666666666668, "margin": -5.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401752816", "401752834", "401752847", "401752860", "401752863", "401752878", "401752881", "401752888", "401752903", "401752913", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 23.2, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401858440", "401858453", "401858464", "401858479" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.625, 23.916666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.9, 22.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.101666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 19.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858480", "away": "Illinois Fighting Illini", "home": "Michigan State Spartans", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Illinois Fighting Illini 38, Michigan State Spartans 37", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-2.5 (-120) / +2.5 (+100)", "ml": "-135 / +114", "total": "48.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 27.5 / 19.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/illinois-fighting-illini-michigan-state-spartans-401858480-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858480", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.663427+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 23.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.636363636363633, 20.84090909090909 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.333333333333332, 23.25 ], "current_rates": [ 30.6, 26 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.583333333333332, 29.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 18.2, 23.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 27.47272106003637 ], "isolated_score": [ 23.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.932139724902285, 24.47272106003637 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 27.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 6.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752795", "401752825", "401752829", "401752843", "401752850", "401752861", "401752865", "401752880", "401752891", "401752906", "401752915", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.6, "pa": 26, "margin": 4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401858217", "401858448", "401858465", "401858472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.583333333333332, "pa": 29.916666666666668, "margin": -5.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401752816", "401752834", "401752847", "401752860", "401752863", "401752878", "401752881", "401752888", "401752903", "401752913", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 23.2, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401858440", "401858453", "401858464", "401858479" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.625, 23.916666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.9, 22.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.101666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 19.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "356", "side": "away", "player": "Ca'Lil Valentine", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "127", "side": "home", "player": "Cam Edwards", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.333333333333332, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 6.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752795", "401752825", "401752829", "401752843", "401752850", "401752861", "401752865", "401752880", "401752891", "401752906", "401752915", "401752922" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.6, "pa": 26, "margin": 4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401858217", "401858448", "401858465", "401858472" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.583333333333332, "pa": 29.916666666666668, "margin": -5.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401752816", "401752834", "401752847", "401752860", "401752863", "401752878", "401752881", "401752888", "401752903", "401752913", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.2, "pa": 23.2, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401858440", "401858453", "401858464", "401858479" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.625, 23.916666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.9, 22.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.101666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 19.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 30.364166666666666, 22.406666666666666 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.364166666666666, 19.406666666666666 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 38.0, 37.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604085", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.713916+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604085", "official_event_id": 6604085, "scores": [ 38, 37 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.713916+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604085", "official_event_id": 6604085, "scores": [ 38, 37 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.713916+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401858484", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858484", "away": "UCLA Bruins", "home": "Oregon Ducks", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10.5 (-112) / -10.5 (-108)", "ml": "+320 / -410", "total": "57.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 21.5 / 36.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/ucla-bruins-oregon-ducks-401858484-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858484", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.821102+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 29.474999999999994 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.750000000000004, 29.474999999999994 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 33.416666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 44.75, 18.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 38.166666666666664, 14.833333333333334 ], "current_rates": [ 47.5, 23.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 33.38980096620906 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.705301492326623, 33.38980096620906 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -15.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401752823", "401752837", "401752851", "401752855", "401752863", "401752879", "401752885", "401752895", "401752900", "401752910", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 44.75, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 26, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858443", "401858458", "401858462" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.166666666666664, "pa": 14.833333333333334, "margin": 23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401752804", "401752824", "401752831", "401752841", "401752854", "401752870", "401752876", "401752886", "401752898", "401752904", "401752911", "401752917" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 47.5, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 24.25, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401856782", "401858455", "401858469" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.5, 35.791666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34, 33.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.683333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -15.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401752823", "401752837", "401752851", "401752855", "401752863", "401752879", "401752885", "401752895", "401752900", "401752910", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 44.75, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 26, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858443", "401858458", "401858462" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.166666666666664, "pa": 14.833333333333334, "margin": 23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401752804", "401752824", "401752831", "401752841", "401752854", "401752870", "401752876", "401752886", "401752898", "401752904", "401752911", "401752917" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 47.5, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 24.25, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401856782", "401858455", "401858469" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.5, 35.791666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34, 33.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.683333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "adjustedScore": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858484", "away": "UCLA Bruins", "home": "Oregon Ducks", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "UCLA Bruins 17, Oregon Ducks 15", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+10.5 (-112) / -10.5 (-108)", "ml": "+320 / -410", "total": "57.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 21.5 / 36.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/ucla-bruins-oregon-ducks-401858484-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858484", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.821102+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.750000000000004, 32.474999999999994 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 35.474999999999994 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.750000000000004, 29.474999999999994 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.750000000000004, 29.474999999999994 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 33.416666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 44.75, 18.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 38.166666666666664, 14.833333333333334 ], "current_rates": [ 47.5, 23.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 23, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 23, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.705301492326623, 36.38980096620906 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 39.38980096620906 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.705301492326623, 33.38980096620906 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.705301492326623, 33.38980096620906 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -15.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401752823", "401752837", "401752851", "401752855", "401752863", "401752879", "401752885", "401752895", "401752900", "401752910", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 44.75, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 26, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858443", "401858458", "401858462" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.166666666666664, "pa": 14.833333333333334, "margin": 23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401752804", "401752824", "401752831", "401752841", "401752854", "401752870", "401752876", "401752886", "401752898", "401752904", "401752911", "401752917" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 47.5, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 24.25, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401856782", "401858455", "401858469" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.5, 35.791666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34, 33.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.683333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Dante Moore", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Jeremiah McClellan", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ] }, { "teamId": "2483", "side": "home", "player": "Joint adverseCumulativeSensitivity", "condition": "Moore OUT, Raiola already 19/25 for 289 and 2 TD against USC. McClellan 7/170 is third WR by yards. Isolated scenarios each -3; joint -3 consolidates QB/receiver losses in the same passing drives. Additional independent McClellan score loss is unestimated; joint -6 retained as adverse cumulative sensitivity, not asserted production coefficient. Raiola's 2024/25 Nebraska starts are kept separate from 2026 Oregon work.", "own_delta": -6, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.566666666666666, 33.64166666666666 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 33.416666666666664, "margin": -15.249999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401752823", "401752837", "401752851", "401752855", "401752863", "401752879", "401752885", "401752895", "401752900", "401752910", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 44.75, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 26, "event_ids": [ "401858210", "401858443", "401858458", "401858462" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 38.166666666666664, "pa": 14.833333333333334, "margin": 23.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401752804", "401752824", "401752831", "401752841", "401752854", "401752870", "401752876", "401752886", "401752898", "401752904", "401752911", "401752917" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 47.5, "pa": 23.25, "margin": 24.25, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401856782", "401858455", "401858469" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 16.5, 35.791666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34, 33.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.683333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 21.566666666666666, 39.64166666666666 ], "adjustedScore": [ 21.566666666666666, 36.64166666666666 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 17.0, 15.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604120", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.716203+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604120", "official_event_id": 6604120, "scores": [ 17, 15 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.716203+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604120", "official_event_id": 6604120, "scores": [ 17, 15 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.716203+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401862796", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401862796", "away": "Charlotte 49ers", "home": "North Texas Mean Green", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+28.5 (-108) / -28.5 (-112)", "ml": "+1700 / -4500", "total": "58.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 15.0 / 49.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/charlotte-49ers-north-texas-mean-green-401862796-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862796", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.816559+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 14.333333333333334, 36.333333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 17.2, 40.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 44.76923076923077, 24.923076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 40.6, 33 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 41.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 41.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 47 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 47 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 36.333333333333336, "margin": -22, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401754527", "401762464", "401762468", "401762475", "401762483", "401762489", "401762492", "401762504", "401762507", "401752776", "401762518" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 40.6, "margin": -23.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401862694", "401856676", "401864574", "401862780", "401862787" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.76923076923077, "pa": 24.923076923076923, "margin": 19.846153846153843, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401762461", "401752949", "401762469", "401761617", "401762481", "401762491", "401762492", "401762499", "401762506", "401762514", "401762442", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 40.6, "pa": 33, "margin": 7.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401862705", "401860889", "401862783", "401862786" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.628205128205128, 40.55128205128205 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.1, 40.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.284615384615385, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15, 49.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 49.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 36.333333333333336, "margin": -22, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401754527", "401762464", "401762468", "401762475", "401762483", "401762489", "401762492", "401762504", "401762507", "401752776", "401762518" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 40.6, "margin": -23.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401862694", "401856676", "401864574", "401862780", "401862787" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.76923076923077, "pa": 24.923076923076923, "margin": 19.846153846153843, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401762461", "401752949", "401762469", "401761617", "401762481", "401762491", "401762492", "401762499", "401762506", "401762514", "401762442", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 40.6, "pa": 33, "margin": 7.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401862705", "401860889", "401862783", "401862786" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.628205128205128, 40.55128205128205 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.1, 40.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.284615384615385, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15, 49.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 49.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "adjustedScore": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401862796", "away": "Charlotte 49ers", "home": "North Texas Mean Green", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Charlotte 49ers 10, North Texas Mean Green 50", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+28.5 (-108) / -28.5 (-112)", "ml": "+1700 / -4500", "total": "58.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 15.0 / 49.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/charlotte-49ers-north-texas-mean-green-401862796-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862796", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.816559+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.365384615384613, 41.323426573426566 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 14.333333333333334, 36.333333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 17.2, 40.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 44.76923076923077, 24.923076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 40.6, 33 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 41.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 41.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.692090486203128, 47.209126222392115 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 47 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 47 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 36.333333333333336, "margin": -22, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401754527", "401762464", "401762468", "401762475", "401762483", "401762489", "401762492", "401762504", "401762507", "401752776", "401762518" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 40.6, "margin": -23.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401862694", "401856676", "401864574", "401862780", "401862787" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.76923076923077, "pa": 24.923076923076923, "margin": 19.846153846153843, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401762461", "401752949", "401762469", "401761617", "401762481", "401762491", "401762492", "401762499", "401762506", "401762514", "401762442", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 40.6, "pa": 33, "margin": 7.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401862705", "401860889", "401862783", "401862786" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.628205128205128, 40.55128205128205 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.1, 40.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.284615384615385, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15, 49.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 49.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 14.333333333333334, "pa": 36.333333333333336, "margin": -22, "event_ids": [ "401761589", "401754527", "401762464", "401762468", "401762475", "401762483", "401762489", "401762492", "401762504", "401762507", "401752776", "401762518" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.2, "pa": 40.6, "margin": -23.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401862694", "401856676", "401864574", "401862780", "401862787" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.76923076923077, "pa": 24.923076923076923, "margin": 19.846153846153843, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401762461", "401752949", "401762469", "401761617", "401762481", "401762491", "401762492", "401762499", "401762506", "401762514", "401762442", "401777324" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 40.6, "pa": 33, "margin": 7.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858425", "401862705", "401860889", "401862783", "401862786" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.628205128205128, 40.55128205128205 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.1, 40.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -7.284615384615385, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 15, 49.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 49.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "adjustedScore": [ 15.079487179487181, 49.36025641025641 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 10.0, 50.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604135", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.717708+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604135", "official_event_id": 6604135, "scores": [ 10, 50 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.717708+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604135", "official_event_id": 6604135, "scores": [ 10, 50 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.717708+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401862799", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401862799", "away": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "home": "Navy Midshipmen", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-105) / -1.5 (-115)", "ml": "+102 / -122", "total": "48.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 24.0 / 29.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/tulsa-golden-hurricane-navy-midshipmen-401862799-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862799", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.831174+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.166666666666668, 28.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 27.8, 21.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 31.166666666666668, 26 ], "current_rates": [ 25.25, 22.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 28.916666666666668, "margin": -5.75, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401757229", "401762465", "401756900", "401762474", "401762478", "401762486", "401762495", "401762505", "401752945", "401762512", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401856697", "401862786" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.166666666666668, "pa": 26, "margin": 5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762434", "401762458", "401762465", "401762473", "401760381", "401762484", "401762493", "401762499", "401757166", "401762510", "401762516", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 25.25, "pa": 22.75, "margin": 2.5, "event_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6816666666666666, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 28.916666666666668, "margin": -5.75, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401757229", "401762465", "401756900", "401762474", "401762478", "401762486", "401762495", "401762505", "401752945", "401762512", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401856697", "401862786" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.166666666666668, "pa": 26, "margin": 5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762434", "401762458", "401762465", "401762473", "401760381", "401762484", "401762493", "401762499", "401757166", "401762510", "401762516", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 25.25, "pa": 22.75, "margin": 2.5, "event_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6816666666666666, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "adjustedScore": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401862799", "away": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane", "home": "Navy Midshipmen", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Tulsa Golden Hurricane 26, Navy Midshipmen 34", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-105) / -1.5 (-115)", "ml": "+102 / -122", "total": "48.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 24.0 / 29.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/tulsa-golden-hurricane-navy-midshipmen-401862799-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401862799", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.831174+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.236363636363635, 27.854545454545452 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.166666666666668, 28.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 27.8, 21.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 31.166666666666668, 26 ], "current_rates": [ 25.25, 22.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.374575009383577, 32.91281061445461 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 28.916666666666668, "margin": -5.75, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401757229", "401762465", "401756900", "401762474", "401762478", "401762486", "401762495", "401762505", "401752945", "401762512", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401856697", "401862786" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.166666666666668, "pa": 26, "margin": 5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762434", "401762458", "401762465", "401762473", "401760381", "401762484", "401762493", "401762499", "401757166", "401762510", "401762516", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 25.25, "pa": 22.75, "margin": 2.5, "event_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6816666666666666, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 28.916666666666668, "margin": -5.75, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401757229", "401762465", "401756900", "401762474", "401762478", "401762486", "401762495", "401762505", "401752945", "401762512", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401856772", "401862707", "401862775", "401856697", "401862786" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.166666666666668, "pa": 26, "margin": 5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762434", "401762458", "401762465", "401762473", "401760381", "401762484", "401762493", "401762499", "401757166", "401762510", "401762516", "401762521" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 25.25, "pa": 22.75, "margin": 2.5, "event_ids": [ "401862696", "401862703", "401862778", "401862791" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.583333333333336, 30.041666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.275, 23.225 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6816666666666666, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "adjustedScore": [ 24.247500000000002, 28.814999999999998 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 26.0, 34.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603617", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.719866+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603617", "official_event_id": 6603617, "scores": [ 26, 34 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.719866+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603617", "official_event_id": 6603617, "scores": [ 26, 34 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.719866+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401866435", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866435", "away": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "home": "Akron Zips", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-5.5 (-110) / +5.5 (-110)", "ml": "-218 / +180", "total": "51.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.0 / 24.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/eastern-michigan-eagles-akron-zips-401866435-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866435", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.905828+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.083333333333332, 29.75 ], "current_rates": [ 22.166666666666668, 25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.25, 27.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 19, 33.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761594", "401762795", "401752698", "401761610", "401762826", "401762831", "401762836", "401762841", "401762848", "401762855", "401762861", "401762869" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.166666666666668, "pa": 25, "margin": -2.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401864495", "401858440", "401858460", "401866427", "401866433" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.25, "pa": 27.416666666666668, "margin": -5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762789", "401752810", "401762463", "401762821", "401762824", "401762829", "401762833", "401762838", "401762844", "401762851", "401762856", "401762862" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19, "pa": 33.6, "margin": -14.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858204", "401866412", "401858451", "401864512", "401866430" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 26 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.883333333333333, 22 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.126666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761594", "401762795", "401752698", "401761610", "401762826", "401762831", "401762836", "401762841", "401762848", "401762855", "401762861", "401762869" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.166666666666668, "pa": 25, "margin": -2.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401864495", "401858440", "401858460", "401866427", "401866433" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.25, "pa": 27.416666666666668, "margin": -5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762789", "401752810", "401762463", "401762821", "401762824", "401762829", "401762833", "401762838", "401762844", "401762851", "401762856", "401762862" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19, "pa": 33.6, "margin": -14.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858204", "401866412", "401858451", "401864512", "401866430" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 26 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.883333333333333, 22 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.126666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866435", "away": "Eastern Michigan Eagles", "home": "Akron Zips", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Eastern Michigan Eagles 25, Akron Zips 23", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-5.5 (-110) / +5.5 (-110)", "ml": "-218 / +180", "total": "51.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.0 / 24.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/eastern-michigan-eagles-akron-zips-401866435-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866435", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.905828+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.926136363636363, 24.823863636363637 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.083333333333332, 29.75 ], "current_rates": [ 22.166666666666668, 25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.25, 27.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 19, 33.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.495806158238924, 30.121576343908938 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 30 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 30 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761594", "401762795", "401752698", "401761610", "401762826", "401762831", "401762836", "401762841", "401762848", "401762855", "401762861", "401762869" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.166666666666668, "pa": 25, "margin": -2.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401864495", "401858440", "401858460", "401866427", "401866433" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.25, "pa": 27.416666666666668, "margin": -5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762789", "401752810", "401762463", "401762821", "401762824", "401762829", "401762833", "401762838", "401762844", "401762851", "401762856", "401762862" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19, "pa": 33.6, "margin": -14.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858204", "401866412", "401858451", "401864512", "401866430" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 26 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.883333333333333, 22 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.126666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -5.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401761594", "401762795", "401752698", "401761610", "401762826", "401762831", "401762836", "401762841", "401762848", "401762855", "401762861", "401762869" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.166666666666668, "pa": 25, "margin": -2.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401866408", "401864495", "401858440", "401858460", "401866427", "401866433" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.25, "pa": 27.416666666666668, "margin": -5.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401762789", "401752810", "401762463", "401762821", "401762824", "401762829", "401762833", "401762838", "401762844", "401762851", "401762856", "401762862" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19, "pa": 33.6, "margin": -14.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858204", "401866412", "401858451", "401864512", "401866430" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 26 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.883333333333333, 22 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.126666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.943333333333335, 24.373333333333335 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24, 23.5 ], "current_rates": [ 20.4, 30.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.583333333333332, 12.166666666666666 ], "current_rates": [ 42.4, 25.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 0.5, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401762794", "401762817", "401761613", "401757170", "401762831", "401762840", "401762844", "401762849", "401762858", "401762865", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 20.4, "pa": 30.6, "margin": -10.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401866409", "401866414", "401858456", "401866426", "401866432" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.583333333333332, "pa": 12.166666666666666, "margin": 19.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752670", "401757232", "401762819", "401762820", "401762824", "401762835", "401762842", "401752952", "401762854", "401762860", "401762867", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.4, "pa": 25.6, "margin": 16.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401866419", "401862774", "401860893", "401866431" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 23, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.591666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16, 38 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 38 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 0.5, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401762794", "401762817", "401761613", "401757170", "401762831", "401762840", "401762844", "401762849", "401762858", "401762865", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 20.4, "pa": 30.6, "margin": -10.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401866409", "401866414", "401858456", "401866426", "401866432" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.583333333333332, "pa": 12.166666666666666, "margin": 19.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752670", "401757232", "401762819", "401762820", "401762824", "401762835", "401762842", "401752952", "401762854", "401762860", "401762867", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.4, "pa": 25.6, "margin": 16.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401866419", "401862774", "401860893", "401866431" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 23, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.591666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16, 38 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 38 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "adjustedScore": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866437", "away": "Buffalo Bulls", "home": "Toledo Rockets", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Buffalo Bulls 23, Toledo Rockets 8", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+18.5 (-108) / -18.5 (-112)", "ml": "+700 / -1100", "total": "55.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 16.0 / 38.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/buffalo-bulls-toledo-rockets-401866437-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866437", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.864168+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.568181818181817, 32.36363636363636 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24, 23.5 ], "current_rates": [ 20.4, 30.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.583333333333332, 12.166666666666666 ], "current_rates": [ 42.4, 25.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.83118118759045, 36.825017083974025 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 0.5, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401762794", "401762817", "401761613", "401757170", "401762831", "401762840", "401762844", "401762849", "401762858", "401762865", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 20.4, "pa": 30.6, "margin": -10.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401866409", "401866414", "401858456", "401866426", "401866432" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.583333333333332, "pa": 12.166666666666666, "margin": 19.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752670", "401757232", "401762819", "401762820", "401762824", "401762835", "401762842", "401752952", "401762854", "401762860", "401762867", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.4, "pa": 25.6, "margin": 16.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401866419", "401862774", "401860893", "401866431" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 23, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.591666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16, 38 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 38 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 0.5, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401762794", "401762817", "401761613", "401757170", "401762831", "401762840", "401762844", "401762849", "401762858", "401762865", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 20.4, "pa": 30.6, "margin": -10.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401866409", "401866414", "401858456", "401866426", "401866432" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.583333333333332, "pa": 12.166666666666666, "margin": 19.416666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752670", "401757232", "401762819", "401762820", "401762824", "401762835", "401762842", "401752952", "401762854", "401762860", "401762867", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.4, "pa": 25.6, "margin": 16.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858429", "401866419", "401862774", "401860893", "401866431" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 18.083333333333332, 27.541666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 23, 36.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.591666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 16, 38 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 38 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "adjustedScore": [ 15.949999999999998, 38.1125 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 23.0, 8.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604244", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.724392+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604244", "official_event_id": 6604244, "scores": [ 23, 8 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.724392+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604244", "official_event_id": 6604244, "scores": [ 23, 8 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.724392+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401866438", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866438", "away": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "home": "Ohio Bobcats", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+2.5 (-118) / -2.5 (-102)", "ml": "+110 / -130", "total": "46.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 21.5 / 28.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/central-michigan-chippewas-ohio-bobcats-401866438-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866438", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.910846+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.833333333333332, 22.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 17.6, 25.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.666666666666668, 22.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 26.8, 26.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": 1.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401760358", "401754529", "401752839", "401762822", "401762826", "401762829", "401762839", "401762847", "401762850", "401762858", "401762866", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 25.4, "margin": -7.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401864498", "401866415", "401864508", "401858238", "401866430" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.666666666666668, "pa": 22.916666666666668, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401752794", "401756883", "401752827", "401762823", "401762825", "401762830", "401762843", "401762848", "401762852", "401762857", "401762863", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 0, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401866418", "401866423", "401866428", "401866434" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.2383333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": 1.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401760358", "401754529", "401752839", "401762822", "401762826", "401762829", "401762839", "401762847", "401762850", "401762858", "401762866", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 25.4, "margin": -7.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401864498", "401866415", "401864508", "401858238", "401866430" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.666666666666668, "pa": 22.916666666666668, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401752794", "401756883", "401752827", "401762823", "401762825", "401762830", "401762843", "401762848", "401762852", "401762857", "401762863", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 0, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401866418", "401866423", "401866428", "401866434" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.2383333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "adjustedScore": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866438", "away": "Central Michigan Chippewas", "home": "Ohio Bobcats", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Central Michigan Chippewas 14, Ohio Bobcats 31", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+2.5 (-118) / -2.5 (-102)", "ml": "+110 / -130", "total": "46.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 21.5 / 28.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/central-michigan-chippewas-ohio-bobcats-401866438-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866438", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:38.910846+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.09090909090909, 26.613636363636363 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.833333333333332, 22.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 17.6, 25.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.666666666666668, 22.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 26.8, 26.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.553505506516093, 31.606128002253655 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": 1.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401760358", "401754529", "401752839", "401762822", "401762826", "401762829", "401762839", "401762847", "401762850", "401762858", "401762866", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 25.4, "margin": -7.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401864498", "401866415", "401864508", "401858238", "401866430" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.666666666666668, "pa": 22.916666666666668, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401752794", "401756883", "401752827", "401762823", "401762825", "401762830", "401762843", "401762848", "401762852", "401762857", "401762863", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 0, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401866418", "401866423", "401866428", "401866434" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.2383333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": 1.1666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401760358", "401754529", "401752839", "401762822", "401762826", "401762829", "401762839", "401762847", "401762850", "401762858", "401762866", "401762872" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 25.4, "margin": -7.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401864498", "401866415", "401864508", "401858238", "401866430" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.666666666666668, "pa": 22.916666666666668, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401752794", "401756883", "401752827", "401762823", "401762825", "401762830", "401762843", "401762848", "401762852", "401762857", "401762863", "401762870" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.8, "pa": 26.8, "margin": 0, "event_ids": [ "401858430", "401866418", "401866423", "401866428", "401866434" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 25.666666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.200000000000003, 26.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.2383333333333333, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "adjustedScore": [ 21.549166666666668, 28.621666666666666 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 14.0, 31.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603895", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.726382+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603895", "official_event_id": 6603895, "scores": [ 14, 31 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.726382+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603895", "official_event_id": 6603895, "scores": [ 14, 31 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.726382+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401866439", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866439", "away": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "home": "Western Michigan Broncos", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+14 (-112) / -14 (-108)", "ml": "+440 / -600", "total": "43.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 14.5 / 33.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/kent-state-golden-flashes-western-michigan-broncos-401866439-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866439", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.037698+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.25, 33.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 15, 31.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.615384615384617, 18.23076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 23.2, 19.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 18, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 13.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 13.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.25, "pa": 33.583333333333336, "margin": -12.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762792", "401756885", "401762817", "401754541", "401752729", "401762837", "401762842", "401762846", "401762853", "401762856", "401762866", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 15, "pa": 31.4, "margin": -16.4, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401866416", "401858454", "401866425", "401866434" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 23.615384615384617, "pa": 18.23076923076923, "margin": 5.384615384615387, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401762461", "401752829", "401762820", "401762828", "401762832", "401762834", "401762874", "401762850", "401762857", "401762864", "401762869", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 19.4, "margin": 3.8000000000000007, "event_ids": [ "401858428", "401866421", "401862773", "401860897", "401866432" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.740384615384613, 28.599358974358978 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.2, 27.299999999999997 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.791794871794872, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 14.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.25, "pa": 33.583333333333336, "margin": -12.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762792", "401756885", "401762817", "401754541", "401752729", "401762837", "401762842", "401762846", "401762853", "401762856", "401762866", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 15, "pa": 31.4, "margin": -16.4, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401866416", "401858454", "401866425", "401866434" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 23.615384615384617, "pa": 18.23076923076923, "margin": 5.384615384615387, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401762461", "401752829", "401762820", "401762828", "401762832", "401762834", "401762874", "401762850", "401762857", "401762864", "401762869", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 19.4, "margin": 3.8000000000000007, "event_ids": [ "401858428", "401866421", "401862773", "401860897", "401866432" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.740384615384613, 28.599358974358978 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.2, 27.299999999999997 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.791794871794872, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 14.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "adjustedScore": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866439", "away": "Kent State Golden Flashes", "home": "Western Michigan Broncos", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Kent State Golden Flashes 7, Western Michigan Broncos 38", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+14 (-112) / -14 (-108)", "ml": "+440 / -600", "total": "43.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 14.5 / 33.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/kent-state-golden-flashes-western-michigan-broncos-401866439-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866439", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.037698+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.835664335664333, 28.758741258741257 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.25, 33.583333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 15, 31.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.615384615384617, 18.23076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 23.2, 19.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 18, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.504749733064184, 34.53622478848902 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 13.5, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 13.5, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.25, "pa": 33.583333333333336, "margin": -12.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762792", "401756885", "401762817", "401754541", "401752729", "401762837", "401762842", "401762846", "401762853", "401762856", "401762866", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 15, "pa": 31.4, "margin": -16.4, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401866416", "401858454", "401866425", "401866434" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 23.615384615384617, "pa": 18.23076923076923, "margin": 5.384615384615387, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401762461", "401752829", "401762820", "401762828", "401762832", "401762834", "401762874", "401762850", "401762857", "401762864", "401762869", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 19.4, "margin": 3.8000000000000007, "event_ids": [ "401858428", "401866421", "401862773", "401860897", "401866432" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.740384615384613, 28.599358974358978 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.2, 27.299999999999997 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.791794871794872, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 14.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.25, "pa": 33.583333333333336, "margin": -12.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762792", "401756885", "401762817", "401754541", "401752729", "401762837", "401762842", "401762846", "401762853", "401762856", "401762866", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 15, "pa": 31.4, "margin": -16.4, "event_ids": [ "401856665", "401866416", "401858454", "401866425", "401866434" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 23.615384615384617, "pa": 18.23076923076923, "margin": 5.384615384615387, "event_ids": [ "401752802", "401762461", "401752829", "401762820", "401762828", "401762832", "401762834", "401762874", "401762850", "401762857", "401762864", "401762869", "401777329" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 23.2, "pa": 19.4, "margin": 3.8000000000000007, "event_ids": [ "401858428", "401866421", "401862773", "401860897", "401866432" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 19.740384615384613, 28.599358974358978 ], "current_matchup": [ 17.2, 27.299999999999997 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.791794871794872, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 14.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "adjustedScore": [ 14.678397435897436, 33.24147435897436 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 7.0, 38.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603828", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.726382+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603828", "official_event_id": 6603828, "scores": [ 7, 38 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.726382+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603828", "official_event_id": 6603828, "scores": [ 7, 38 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.726382+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868011", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868011", "away": "Richmond Spiders", "home": "Fordham Rams", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-8.5 (-112) / +8.5 (-110)", "ml": "-397 / +294", "total": "45.5; O -110 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 31.0 / 19.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/richmond-spiders-fordham-rams-401868011-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868011", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.071097+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.125, 21.145833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.125, 21.145833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.125, 21.145833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 21.916666666666668, 22.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 23.333333333333332, 28.166666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 15.916666666666666, 33.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 14.833333333333334, 33.166666666666664 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.38404951644407, 25.457863921771576 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.38404951644407, 25.457863921771576 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.38404951644407, 25.457863921771576 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.916666666666668, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": -0.75, "event_ids": [ "401767732", "401767593", "401754639", "401767589", "401767352", "401767666", "401767739", "401767728", "401767716", "401767724", "401767740", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 28.166666666666668, "margin": -4.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401869127", "401858222", "401868018", "401868037", "401868029" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.916666666666666, "pa": 33.083333333333336, "margin": -17.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401754518", "401767257", "401767322", "401767672", "401767673", "401767674", "401767700", "401767675", "401767716", "401767669", "401767717", "401767718" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.833333333333334, "pa": 33.166666666666664, "margin": -18.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401868007", "401864499", "401868008", "401868009", "401866648", "401868010" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 19.291666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.25, 21.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.9916666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31, 19 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31, 19 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.916666666666668, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": -0.75, "event_ids": [ "401767732", "401767593", "401754639", "401767589", "401767352", "401767666", "401767739", "401767728", "401767716", "401767724", "401767740", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 28.166666666666668, "margin": -4.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401869127", "401858222", "401868018", "401868037", "401868029" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.916666666666666, "pa": 33.083333333333336, "margin": -17.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401754518", "401767257", "401767322", "401767672", "401767673", "401767674", "401767700", "401767675", "401767716", "401767669", "401767717", "401767718" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.833333333333334, "pa": 33.166666666666664, "margin": -18.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401868007", "401864499", "401868008", "401868009", "401866648", "401868010" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 19.291666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.25, 21.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.9916666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31, 19 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31, 19 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868011", "away": "Richmond Spiders", "home": "Fordham Rams", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Richmond Spiders 14, Fordham Rams 20", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-8.5 (-112) / +8.5 (-110)", "ml": "-397 / +294", "total": "45.5; O -110 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 31.0 / 19.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/richmond-spiders-fordham-rams-401868011-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868011", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.071097+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.125, 21.145833333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.125, 21.145833333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.125, 21.145833333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 21.916666666666668, 22.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 23.333333333333332, 28.166666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 15.916666666666666, 33.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 14.833333333333334, 33.166666666666664 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.38404951644407, 25.457863921771576 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.38404951644407, 25.457863921771576 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.38404951644407, 25.457863921771576 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.916666666666668, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": -0.75, "event_ids": [ "401767732", "401767593", "401754639", "401767589", "401767352", "401767666", "401767739", "401767728", "401767716", "401767724", "401767740", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 28.166666666666668, "margin": -4.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401869127", "401858222", "401868018", "401868037", "401868029" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.916666666666666, "pa": 33.083333333333336, "margin": -17.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401754518", "401767257", "401767322", "401767672", "401767673", "401767674", "401767700", "401767675", "401767716", "401767669", "401767717", "401767718" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.833333333333334, "pa": 33.166666666666664, "margin": -18.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401868007", "401864499", "401868008", "401868009", "401866648", "401868010" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 19.291666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.25, 21.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.9916666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31, 19 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31, 19 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 21.916666666666668, "pa": 22.666666666666668, "margin": -0.75, "event_ids": [ "401767732", "401767593", "401754639", "401767589", "401767352", "401767666", "401767739", "401767728", "401767716", "401767724", "401767740", "401767340" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 28.166666666666668, "margin": -4.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401867988", "401869127", "401858222", "401868018", "401868037", "401868029" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 15.916666666666666, "pa": 33.083333333333336, "margin": -17.16666666666667, "event_ids": [ "401754518", "401767257", "401767322", "401767672", "401767673", "401767674", "401767700", "401767675", "401767716", "401767669", "401767717", "401767718" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 14.833333333333334, "pa": 33.166666666666664, "margin": -18.33333333333333, "event_ids": [ "401868007", "401864499", "401868008", "401868009", "401866648", "401868010" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.5, 19.291666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.25, 21.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.9916666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31, 19 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31, 19 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 30.866666666666667, 18.90416666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 14.0, 20.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604552", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.730062+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604552", "official_event_id": 6604552, "scores": [ 14, 20 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.730062+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604552", "official_event_id": 6604552, "scores": [ 14, 20 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.730062+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868180", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868180", "away": "Eastern Illinois Panthers", "home": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+13.5 (-110) / -13.5 (-113)", "ml": "+420 / -620", "total": "49.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 19.0 / 35.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/eastern-illinois-panthers-gardner-webb-runnin-bulldogs-401868180-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868180", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.033668+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 17.5, 29.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 18, 41.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 27.5, 29.75 ], "current_rates": [ 24, 23.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 31 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 31 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.056851840448825, 35.798154274362616 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.056851840448825, 35.798154274362616 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.056851840448825, 35.798154274362616 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17, 36 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 36 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -11.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767172", "401767173", "401767174", "401767175", "401767196", "401767197", "401767167", "401767198", "401767199", "401767200", "401752773" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18, "pa": 41.2, "margin": -23.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401867865", "401858422", "401867856", "401867846", "401868179" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754622", "401767202", "401762823", "401767164", "401767196", "401767203", "401767204", "401767205", "401767206", "401767207", "401767208" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24, "pa": 23.666666666666668, "margin": 0.33333333333333215, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401868186", "401868187", "401867979", "401868188", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 28.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 32.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.2950000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -11.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767172", "401767173", "401767174", "401767175", "401767196", "401767197", "401767167", "401767198", "401767199", "401767200", "401752773" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18, "pa": 41.2, "margin": -23.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401867865", "401858422", "401867856", "401867846", "401868179" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754622", "401767202", "401762823", "401767164", "401767196", "401767203", "401767204", "401767205", "401767206", "401767207", "401767208" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24, "pa": 23.666666666666668, "margin": 0.33333333333333215, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401868186", "401868187", "401867979", "401868188", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 28.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 32.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.2950000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868180", "away": "Eastern Illinois Panthers", "home": "Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Eastern Illinois Panthers 21, Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 7", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+13.5 (-110) / -13.5 (-113)", "ml": "+420 / -620", "total": "49.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 19.0 / 35.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/eastern-illinois-panthers-gardner-webb-runnin-bulldogs-401868180-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868180", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.033668+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.46780303030303, 30.943181818181817 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 17.5, 29.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 18, 41.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 27.5, 29.75 ], "current_rates": [ 24, 23.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 31 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 31 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.056851840448825, 35.798154274362616 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.056851840448825, 35.798154274362616 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.056851840448825, 35.798154274362616 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 17, 36 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 36 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -11.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767172", "401767173", "401767174", "401767175", "401767196", "401767197", "401767167", "401767198", "401767199", "401767200", "401752773" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18, "pa": 41.2, "margin": -23.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401867865", "401858422", "401867856", "401867846", "401868179" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754622", "401767202", "401762823", "401767164", "401767196", "401767203", "401767204", "401767205", "401767206", "401767207", "401767208" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24, "pa": 23.666666666666668, "margin": 0.33333333333333215, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401868186", "401868187", "401867979", "401868188", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 28.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 32.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.2950000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.5, "pa": 29.166666666666668, "margin": -11.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767171", "401767172", "401767173", "401767174", "401767175", "401767196", "401767197", "401767167", "401767198", "401767199", "401767200", "401752773" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18, "pa": 41.2, "margin": -23.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401867865", "401858422", "401867856", "401867846", "401868179" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 29.75, "margin": -2.25, "event_ids": [ "401767201", "401754622", "401767202", "401762823", "401767164", "401767196", "401767203", "401767204", "401767205", "401767206", "401767207", "401767208" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 24, "pa": 23.666666666666668, "margin": 0.33333333333333215, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401868186", "401868187", "401867979", "401868188", "401868173" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 28.333333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.833333333333336, 32.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.2950000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 18.934166666666666, 35.26166666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.666666666666668, 23.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 21.2, 35 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 12.916666666666666, 26.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 16, 34.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.760796401748166, 24.639962420363418 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.760796401748166, 24.639962420363418 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.760796401748166, 24.639962420363418 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 23.916666666666668, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401757231", "401767235", "401757265", "401767219", "401767211", "401767236", "401767203", "401767198", "401767229", "401767169", "401767234" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 35, "margin": -13.8, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401867684", "401856791", "401862772", "401868063" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 12.916666666666666, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -13.666666666666666, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401767224", "401767225", "401767226", "401767175", "401767220", "401767227", "401767228", "401767213", "401767229", "401767207", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16, "pa": 34.6, "margin": -18.6, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401856658", "401868195", "401868196", "401868197" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 18.416666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.9, 25.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5216666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 23.916666666666668, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401757231", "401767235", "401757265", "401767219", "401767211", "401767236", "401767203", "401767198", "401767229", "401767169", "401767234" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 35, "margin": -13.8, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401867684", "401856791", "401862772", "401868063" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 12.916666666666666, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -13.666666666666666, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401767224", "401767225", "401767226", "401767175", "401767220", "401767227", "401767228", "401767213", "401767229", "401767207", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16, "pa": 34.6, "margin": -18.6, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401856658", "401868195", "401868196", "401868197" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 18.416666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.9, 25.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5216666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868198", "away": "UT Martin Skyhawks", "home": "Tennessee State Tigers", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "UT Martin Skyhawks 42, Tennessee State Tigers 28", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-8.5 (-112) / +8.5 (-110)", "ml": "-352 / +265", "total": "46.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 27.5 / 22.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/ut-martin-skyhawks-tennessee-state-tigers-401868198-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868198", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.114425+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.818181818181817, 22.386363636363633 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.818181818181817, 22.386363636363633 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.818181818181817, 22.386363636363633 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 20.666666666666668, 23.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 21.2, 35 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 12.916666666666666, 26.583333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 16, 34.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 22.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.760796401748166, 24.639962420363418 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.760796401748166, 24.639962420363418 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.760796401748166, 24.639962420363418 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21, 24.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 24.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 23.916666666666668, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401757231", "401767235", "401757265", "401767219", "401767211", "401767236", "401767203", "401767198", "401767229", "401767169", "401767234" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 35, "margin": -13.8, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401867684", "401856791", "401862772", "401868063" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 12.916666666666666, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -13.666666666666666, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401767224", "401767225", "401767226", "401767175", "401767220", "401767227", "401767228", "401767213", "401767229", "401767207", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16, "pa": 34.6, "margin": -18.6, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401856658", "401868195", "401868196", "401868197" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 18.416666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.9, 25.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5216666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 23.916666666666668, "margin": -3.25, "event_ids": [ "401756876", "401757231", "401767235", "401757265", "401767219", "401767211", "401767236", "401767203", "401767198", "401767229", "401767169", "401767234" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.2, "pa": 35, "margin": -13.8, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401867684", "401856791", "401862772", "401868063" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 12.916666666666666, "pa": 26.583333333333332, "margin": -13.666666666666666, "event_ids": [ "401767223", "401767224", "401767225", "401767226", "401767175", "401767220", "401767227", "401767228", "401767213", "401767229", "401767207", "401767170" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16, "pa": 34.6, "margin": -18.6, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401856658", "401868195", "401868196", "401868197" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.625, 18.416666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.9, 25.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5216666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.284166666666664, 21.936666666666667 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 42.0, 28.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604789", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.734888+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604789", "official_event_id": 6604789, "scores": [ 42, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.734888+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604789", "official_event_id": 6604789, "scores": [ 42, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.734888+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868376", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868376", "away": "Furman Paladins", "home": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+13.5 (-110) / -13.5 (-112)", "ml": "+401 / -581", "total": "45.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 17.0 / 37.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/furman-paladins-tennessee-tech-golden-eagles-401868376-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868376", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.110902+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.25509906759907, 32.12791375291375 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.25509906759907, 32.12791375291375 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.25509906759907, 32.12791375291375 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.416666666666668, 31 ], "current_rates": [ 16.666666666666668, 22.833333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 37.53846153846154, 18.692307692307693 ], "current_rates": [ 33.8, 24.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.476113670338002, 35.409537915932425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.476113670338002, 35.409537915932425 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.476113670338002, 35.409537915932425 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.416666666666668, "pa": 31, "margin": -6.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767565", "401767141", "401767566", "401767559", "401767567", "401767568", "401767569", "401767570", "401767535", "401767571", "401754605" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 16.666666666666668, "pa": 22.833333333333332, "margin": -6.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868373", "401856666", "401868374", "401867984", "401868037", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.53846153846154, "pa": 18.692307692307693, "margin": 18.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401767230", "401767231", "401767232", "401767226", "401767233", "401767165", "401767212", "401767221", "401767205", "401767199", "401752767", "401767234", "401836115" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 8.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866621", "401868336", "401868386", "401868390", "401868391" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 21.554487179487182, 34.269230769230774 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.733333333333334, 28.316666666666663 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.059615384615384, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.416666666666668, "pa": 31, "margin": -6.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767565", "401767141", "401767566", "401767559", "401767567", "401767568", "401767569", "401767570", "401767535", "401767571", "401754605" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 16.666666666666668, "pa": 22.833333333333332, "margin": -6.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868373", "401856666", "401868374", "401867984", "401868037", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.53846153846154, "pa": 18.692307692307693, "margin": 18.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401767230", "401767231", "401767232", "401767226", "401767233", "401767165", "401767212", "401767221", "401767205", "401767199", "401752767", "401767234", "401836115" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 8.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866621", "401868336", "401868386", "401868390", "401868391" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 21.554487179487182, 34.269230769230774 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.733333333333334, 28.316666666666663 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.059615384615384, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868376", "away": "Furman Paladins", "home": "Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Furman Paladins 15, Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles 20", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+13.5 (-110) / -13.5 (-112)", "ml": "+401 / -581", "total": "45.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 17.0 / 37.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/furman-paladins-tennessee-tech-golden-eagles-401868376-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868376", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.110902+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.25509906759907, 32.12791375291375 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.25509906759907, 32.12791375291375 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.25509906759907, 32.12791375291375 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 24.416666666666668, 31 ], "current_rates": [ 16.666666666666668, 22.833333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 37.53846153846154, 18.692307692307693 ], "current_rates": [ 33.8, 24.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20.5, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 16.476113670338002, 35.409537915932425 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.476113670338002, 35.409537915932425 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.476113670338002, 35.409537915932425 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 16.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.416666666666668, "pa": 31, "margin": -6.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767565", "401767141", "401767566", "401767559", "401767567", "401767568", "401767569", "401767570", "401767535", "401767571", "401754605" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 16.666666666666668, "pa": 22.833333333333332, "margin": -6.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868373", "401856666", "401868374", "401867984", "401868037", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.53846153846154, "pa": 18.692307692307693, "margin": 18.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401767230", "401767231", "401767232", "401767226", "401767233", "401767165", "401767212", "401767221", "401767205", "401767199", "401752767", "401767234", "401836115" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 8.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866621", "401868336", "401868386", "401868390", "401868391" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 21.554487179487182, 34.269230769230774 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.733333333333334, 28.316666666666663 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.059615384615384, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.416666666666668, "pa": 31, "margin": -6.583333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767339", "401767565", "401767141", "401767566", "401767559", "401767567", "401767568", "401767569", "401767570", "401767535", "401767571", "401754605" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 16.666666666666668, "pa": 22.833333333333332, "margin": -6.166666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401868373", "401856666", "401868374", "401867984", "401868037", "401868375" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.53846153846154, "pa": 18.692307692307693, "margin": 18.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401767230", "401767231", "401767232", "401767226", "401767233", "401767165", "401767212", "401767221", "401767205", "401767199", "401752767", "401767234", "401836115" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 8.999999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866621", "401868336", "401868386", "401868390", "401868391" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 21.554487179487182, 34.269230769230774 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.733333333333334, 28.316666666666663 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.059615384615384, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.084294871794874, 36.8525641025641 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.6341463414634148, 3.8536585365853657 ], "current_rates": [ 4.2, 5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 2.8048780487804876, 3.097560975609756 ], "current_rates": [ 2, 4.333333333333333 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892470", "away": "Vancouver Canucks", "home": "New Jersey Devils", "startTime": "3:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Vancouver Canucks 1, New Jersey Devils 4", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-112) / -1.5 (-108)", "ml": "+230 / -285", "total": "6.5; O -102 / U -118", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/vancouver-canucks-new-jersey-devils-401892470-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892470", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.151151+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.003032873806999, 3.4914103923647932 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.003032873806999, 3.4914103923647932 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.003032873806999, 3.4914103923647932 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.6341463414634148, 3.8536585365853657 ], "current_rates": [ 4.2, 5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 2.8048780487804876, 3.097560975609756 ], "current_rates": [ 2, 4.333333333333333 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8703416844625473, 3.5051330084093433 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8231650000000004, 3.292675 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.916666666666664, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": 11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401754618", "401757168", "401757169", "401757170", "401757171", "401754569", "401757172", "401757173", "401754590", "401757174", "401757175" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36, "pa": 26.2, "margin": 9.8, "event_ids": [ "401861962", "401858444", "401861963", "401861970", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 29.666666666666668, "margin": -1.8333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762462", "401752703", "401754542", "401762479", "401762484", "401762489", "401762495", "401762498", "401762503", "401762515", "401762442" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401862698", "401858442", "401862774", "401862779", "401862792" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.4, 26 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.171666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "adjustedScore": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401861964", "away": "UConn Huskies", "home": "Temple Owls", "startTime": "3:45 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "UConn Huskies 34, Temple Owls 20", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+3.5 (-108) / -3.5 (-112)", "ml": "+150 / -180", "total": "54.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 34.0 / 25.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/uconn-huskies-temple-owls-401861964-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401861964", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.305635+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.227272727272727, 27.204545454545453 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 36.916666666666664, 25.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36, 26.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 27.833333333333332, 29.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 25.8, 24.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.824447909493205, 31.7084903636163 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 27, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.916666666666664, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": 11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401754618", "401757168", "401757169", "401757170", "401757171", "401754569", "401757172", "401757173", "401754590", "401757174", "401757175" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36, "pa": 26.2, "margin": 9.8, "event_ids": [ "401861962", "401858444", "401861963", "401861970", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 29.666666666666668, "margin": -1.8333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762462", "401752703", "401754542", "401762479", "401762484", "401762489", "401762495", "401762498", "401762503", "401762515", "401762442" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401862698", "401858442", "401862774", "401862779", "401862792" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.4, 26 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.171666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.916666666666664, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": 11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401757167", "401754618", "401757168", "401757169", "401757170", "401757171", "401754569", "401757172", "401757173", "401754590", "401757174", "401757175" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36, "pa": 26.2, "margin": 9.8, "event_ids": [ "401861962", "401858444", "401861963", "401861970", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 29.666666666666668, "margin": -1.8333333333333357, "event_ids": [ "401762456", "401762462", "401752703", "401754542", "401762479", "401762484", "401762489", "401762495", "401762498", "401762503", "401762515", "401762442" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25.8, "pa": 24.8, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401862698", "401858442", "401862774", "401862779", "401862792" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 33.291666666666664, 26.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.4, 26 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.171666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 34, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "adjustedScore": [ 34.0175, 25.744999999999997 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 34.0, 20.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604247", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.741062+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604247", "official_event_id": 6604247, "scores": [ 34, 20 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.741062+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604247", "official_event_id": 6604247, "scores": [ 34, 20 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.741062+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401866659", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866659", "away": "Stony Brook Seawolves", "home": "Towson Tigers", "startTime": "4:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-7 (-103) / +7 (-120)", "ml": "-223 / +176", "total": "57.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 33.0 / 26.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/stony-brook-seawolves-towson-tigers-401866659-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866659", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.293856+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28, 25.75 ], "current_rates": [ 34.8, 30.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 26.75, 25.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 22.666666666666668, 37.166666666666664 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28, "pa": 25.75, "margin": 2.25, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401767317", "401767322", "401767210", "401767323", "401767324", "401767261", "401767325", "401767193", "401767316", "401767326", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 3.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401866622", "401866413", "401866634", "401866648" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.75, "pa": 25.083333333333332, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767328", "401752838", "401767329", "401767032", "401767153", "401767260", "401767325", "401767275", "401767330", "401767331", "401767148" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 37.166666666666664, "margin": -14.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866532", "401862696", "401856680", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.9083333333333325, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28, "pa": 25.75, "margin": 2.25, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401767317", "401767322", "401767210", "401767323", "401767324", "401767261", "401767325", "401767193", "401767316", "401767326", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 3.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401866622", "401866413", "401866634", "401866648" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.75, "pa": 25.083333333333332, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767328", "401752838", "401767329", "401767032", "401767153", "401767260", "401767325", "401767275", "401767330", "401767331", "401767148" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 37.166666666666664, "margin": -14.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866532", "401862696", "401856680", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.9083333333333325, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401866659", "away": "Stony Brook Seawolves", "home": "Towson Tigers", "startTime": "4:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Stony Brook Seawolves 31, Towson Tigers 24", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-7 (-103) / +7 (-120)", "ml": "-223 / +176", "total": "57.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 33.0 / 26.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/stony-brook-seawolves-towson-tigers-401866659-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401866659", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.293856+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.357954545454543, 27.12689393939394 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28, 25.75 ], "current_rates": [ 34.8, 30.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 26.75, 25.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 22.666666666666668, 37.166666666666664 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.18722768083512, 31.94020963106951 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.18722768083512, 31.94020963106951 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.18722768083512, 31.94020963106951 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 26, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28, "pa": 25.75, "margin": 2.25, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401767317", "401767322", "401767210", "401767323", "401767324", "401767261", "401767325", "401767193", "401767316", "401767326", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 3.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401866622", "401866413", "401866634", "401866648" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.75, "pa": 25.083333333333332, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767328", "401752838", "401767329", "401767032", "401767153", "401767260", "401767325", "401767275", "401767330", "401767331", "401767148" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 37.166666666666664, "margin": -14.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866532", "401862696", "401856680", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.9083333333333325, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28, "pa": 25.75, "margin": 2.25, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401767317", "401767322", "401767210", "401767323", "401767324", "401767261", "401767325", "401767193", "401767316", "401767326", "401767139" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.8, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 3.9999999999999964, "event_ids": [ "401866615", "401866622", "401866413", "401866634", "401866648" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.75, "pa": 25.083333333333332, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401767327", "401767328", "401752838", "401767329", "401767032", "401767153", "401767260", "401767325", "401767275", "401767330", "401767331", "401767148" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.666666666666668, "pa": 37.166666666666664, "margin": -14.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401866532", "401862696", "401856680", "401866640", "401866649", "401866651" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 26.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 35.983333333333334, 26.733333333333334 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.9083333333333325, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.170833333333334, 26.083333333333336 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 31.0, 24.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604435", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.743552+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604435", "official_event_id": 6604435, "scores": [ 31, 24 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.743552+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604435", "official_event_id": 6604435, "scores": [ 31, 24 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.743552+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868156", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868156", "away": "Utah Tech Trailblazers", "home": "Portland State Vikings", "startTime": "4:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+9.5 (-128) / -9.5 (+103)", "ml": "+232 / -303", "total": "61.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 32.5 / 28.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/utah-tech-trailblazers-portland-state-vikings-401868156-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868156", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.392310+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.272727272727273, 28.787878787878785 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.272727272727273, 28.787878787878785 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.272727272727273, 28.787878787878785 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "3101", "side": "away", "player": "Deacon Hill", "replacement": "Bronson Barben", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx", "base_score": [ 30.272727272727273, 28.787878787878785 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.272727272727273, 28.787878787878785 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.272727272727273, 28.787878787878785 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 16, 29.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 15, 45 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 16.166666666666668, 42.666666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 22.2, 51.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.39477678501516, 32.14102766987766 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.39477678501516, 32.14102766987766 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.39477678501516, 32.14102766987766 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "3101", "side": "away", "player": "Deacon Hill", "replacement": "Bronson Barben", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx", "base_score": [ 25.39477678501516, 32.14102766987766 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.39477678501516, 32.14102766987766 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.39477678501516, 32.14102766987766 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.433333333333337, 28.458333333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.433333333333337, 28.458333333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "3101", "side": "away", "player": "Deacon Hill", "replacement": "Bronson Barben", "condition": "CONDITIONAL: Oct3 injury confirmed; Oct10 availability not conclusively ruled out", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "conditional_qualifying_branch", "true_statistical_effect": null, "source": "https://utahtechtrailblazers.com/news/2026/10/6/football-trailblazers-hit-the-road-for-saturday-big-sky-match-up-at-portland-state.aspx", "base_score": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "isolated_score": [ 29.433333333333337, 28.458333333333332 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 29.433333333333337, 28.458333333333332 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16, "pa": 29.333333333333332, "margin": -13.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401767156", "401767112", "401767090", "401767308", "401767249", "401769869", "401767307", "401767295", "401767288", "401767245", "401767303", "401767284" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 15, "pa": 45, "margin": -30, "event_ids": [ "401868118", "401856775", "401868112", "401868124", "401868131", "401868160" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 16.166666666666668, "pa": 42.666666666666664, "margin": -26.499999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401767126", "401756851", "401767127", "401760370", "401767115", "401767063", "401767128", "401767093", "401767076", "401767129", "401767103", "401767125" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22.2, "pa": 51.2, "margin": -29.000000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401868154", "401860879", "401867876", "401858455", "401868155" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.333333333333332, 22.75 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.1, 33.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.2166666666666672, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "adjustedScore": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "adjustedScore": [ 32.43333333333334, 28.458333333333332 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 14.0, 30.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604510", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.746059+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604510", "official_event_id": 6604510, "scores": [ 14, 30 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.746059+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604510", "official_event_id": 6604510, "scores": [ 14, 30 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.746059+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868968", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868968", "away": "Southern Jaguars", "home": "Prairie View A&M Panthers", "startTime": "4:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+15.5 (-110) / -15.5 (-112)", "ml": "+501 / -780", "total": "56.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 17.5 / 38.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/southern-jaguars-prairie-view-a-m-panthers-401868968-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868968", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.380267+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 18.583333333333332, 36.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 22.333333333333332, 38.166666666666664 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 31.076923076923077, 16.153846153846153 ], "current_rates": [ 23.833333333333332, 30 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15, 36.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.583333333333332, "pa": 36.083333333333336, "margin": -17.500000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767425", "401767359", "401760369", "401767422", "401767390", "401767434", "401767456", "401767385", "401767376", "401767457", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.333333333333332, "pa": 38.166666666666664, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868324", "401868970", "401856787", "401868971", "401868960", "401868936" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.076923076923077, "pa": 16.153846153846153, "margin": 14.923076923076923, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401767432", "401762466", "401767433", "401767417", "401767371", "401767434", "401767435", "401767364", "401767356", "401767387", "401767430", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 30, "margin": -6.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401868967", "401856784", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.208974358974359, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 38 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 38 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.583333333333332, "pa": 36.083333333333336, "margin": -17.500000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767425", "401767359", "401760369", "401767422", "401767390", "401767434", "401767456", "401767385", "401767376", "401767457", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.333333333333332, "pa": 38.166666666666664, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868324", "401868970", "401856787", "401868971", "401868960", "401868936" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.076923076923077, "pa": 16.153846153846153, "margin": 14.923076923076923, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401767432", "401762466", "401767433", "401767417", "401767371", "401767434", "401767435", "401767364", "401767356", "401767387", "401767430", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 30, "margin": -6.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401868967", "401856784", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.208974358974359, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 38 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 38 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868968", "away": "Southern Jaguars", "home": "Prairie View A&M Panthers", "startTime": "4:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Southern Jaguars 28, Prairie View A&M Panthers 14", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+15.5 (-110) / -15.5 (-112)", "ml": "+501 / -780", "total": "56.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 17.5 / 38.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/southern-jaguars-prairie-view-a-m-panthers-401868968-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868968", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.380267+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.017628205128204, 33.0400641025641 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 18.583333333333332, 36.083333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 22.333333333333332, 38.166666666666664 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 31.076923076923077, 16.153846153846153 ], "current_rates": [ 23.833333333333332, 30 ] } }, "display_base": [ 21, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.988368633079567, 36.603558288374806 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 15, 36.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 15, 36.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.583333333333332, "pa": 36.083333333333336, "margin": -17.500000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767425", "401767359", "401760369", "401767422", "401767390", "401767434", "401767456", "401767385", "401767376", "401767457", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.333333333333332, "pa": 38.166666666666664, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868324", "401868970", "401856787", "401868971", "401868960", "401868936" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.076923076923077, "pa": 16.153846153846153, "margin": 14.923076923076923, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401767432", "401762466", "401767433", "401767417", "401767371", "401767434", "401767435", "401767364", "401767356", "401767387", "401767430", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 30, "margin": -6.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401868967", "401856784", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.208974358974359, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 38 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 38 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.583333333333332, "pa": 36.083333333333336, "margin": -17.500000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767410", "401767425", "401767359", "401760369", "401767422", "401767390", "401767434", "401767456", "401767385", "401767376", "401767457", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 22.333333333333332, "pa": 38.166666666666664, "margin": -15.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868324", "401868970", "401856787", "401868971", "401868960", "401868936" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.076923076923077, "pa": 16.153846153846153, "margin": 14.923076923076923, "event_ids": [ "401767431", "401767432", "401762466", "401767433", "401767417", "401767371", "401767434", "401767435", "401767364", "401767356", "401767387", "401767430", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.833333333333332, "pa": 30, "margin": -6.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401868967", "401856784", "401868307", "401868954", "401868965" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 17.368589743589745, 33.580128205128204 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.166666666666664, 31 ], "bounded_mismatch": -4.208974358974359, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 38 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 38 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "adjustedScore": [ 17.558653846153845, 37.99903846153846 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 28.0, 14.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640431", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.748576+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640431", "official_event_id": 6640431, "scores": [ 28, 14 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.748576+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640431", "official_event_id": 6640431, "scores": [ 28, 14 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.748576+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401869144", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401869144", "away": "Incarnate Word Cardinals", "home": "Lamar Cardinals", "startTime": "4:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+6.5 (-110) / -6.5 (-113)", "ml": "+187 / -239", "total": "49.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 25.0 / 29.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/incarnate-word-cardinals-lamar-cardinals-401869144-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869144", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.377254+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.84090909090909, 27.83041958041958 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.84090909090909, 27.83041958041958 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.84090909090909, 27.83041958041958 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.666666666666668, 25.5 ], "current_rates": [ 34, 33.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.46153846153846, 23 ], "current_rates": [ 28.4, 20.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.944977016190176, 29.59801383374956 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.944977016190176, 29.59801383374956 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.944977016190176, 29.59801383374956 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.666666666666668, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401767476", "401767059", "401762467", "401767114", "401767240", "401767477", "401767462", "401767478", "401767479", "401767480", "401767481", "401767475" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34, "pa": 33.2, "margin": 0.7999999999999972, "event_ids": [ "401913104", "401868123", "401869147", "401860892", "401868309" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 22.46153846153846, "pa": 23, "margin": -0.5384615384615401, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401767482", "401767458", "401767483", "401767484", "401767461", "401767485", "401767486", "401767479", "401767487", "401767488", "401767489", "401833969" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28.4, "pa": 20.2, "margin": 8.2, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401869142", "401868093", "401869143", "401869131" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.333333333333336, 23.98076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.1, 30.8 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6694871794871795, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.666666666666668, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401767476", "401767059", "401762467", "401767114", "401767240", "401767477", "401767462", "401767478", "401767479", "401767480", "401767481", "401767475" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34, "pa": 33.2, "margin": 0.7999999999999972, "event_ids": [ "401913104", "401868123", "401869147", "401860892", "401868309" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 22.46153846153846, "pa": 23, "margin": -0.5384615384615401, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401767482", "401767458", "401767483", "401767484", "401767461", "401767485", "401767486", "401767479", "401767487", "401767488", "401767489", "401833969" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28.4, "pa": 20.2, "margin": 8.2, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401869142", "401868093", "401869143", "401869131" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.333333333333336, 23.98076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.1, 30.8 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6694871794871795, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "adjustedScore": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401869144", "away": "Incarnate Word Cardinals", "home": "Lamar Cardinals", "startTime": "4:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Incarnate Word Cardinals 35, Lamar Cardinals 38", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+6.5 (-110) / -6.5 (-113)", "ml": "+187 / -239", "total": "49.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 25.0 / 29.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/incarnate-word-cardinals-lamar-cardinals-401869144-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869144", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.377254+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.84090909090909, 27.83041958041958 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.84090909090909, 27.83041958041958 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.84090909090909, 27.83041958041958 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.666666666666668, 25.5 ], "current_rates": [ 34, 33.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.46153846153846, 23 ], "current_rates": [ 28.4, 20.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.944977016190176, 29.59801383374956 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.944977016190176, 29.59801383374956 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.944977016190176, 29.59801383374956 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.666666666666668, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401767476", "401767059", "401762467", "401767114", "401767240", "401767477", "401767462", "401767478", "401767479", "401767480", "401767481", "401767475" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34, "pa": 33.2, "margin": 0.7999999999999972, "event_ids": [ "401913104", "401868123", "401869147", "401860892", "401868309" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 22.46153846153846, "pa": 23, "margin": -0.5384615384615401, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401767482", "401767458", "401767483", "401767484", "401767461", "401767485", "401767486", "401767479", "401767487", "401767488", "401767489", "401833969" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28.4, "pa": 20.2, "margin": 8.2, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401869142", "401868093", "401869143", "401869131" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.333333333333336, 23.98076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.1, 30.8 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6694871794871795, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 25.666666666666668, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401767476", "401767059", "401762467", "401767114", "401767240", "401767477", "401767462", "401767478", "401767479", "401767480", "401767481", "401767475" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34, "pa": 33.2, "margin": 0.7999999999999972, "event_ids": [ "401913104", "401868123", "401869147", "401860892", "401868309" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 22.46153846153846, "pa": 23, "margin": -0.5384615384615401, "event_ids": [ "401762435", "401767482", "401767458", "401767483", "401767484", "401767461", "401767485", "401767486", "401767479", "401767487", "401767488", "401767489", "401833969" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 28.4, "pa": 20.2, "margin": 8.2, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401869142", "401868093", "401869143", "401869131" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.333333333333336, 23.98076923076923 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.1, 30.8 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.6694871794871795, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "adjustedScore": [ 25.047179487179488, 29.559871794871796 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 35.0, 38.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604820", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.750589+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604820", "official_event_id": 6604820, "scores": [ 35, 38 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.750589+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604820", "official_event_id": 6604820, "scores": [ 35, 38 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.750589+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892471", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892471", "away": "Edmonton Oilers", "home": "San Jose Sharks", "startTime": "4:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+160) / +1.5 (-192)", "ml": "-155 / +130", "total": "6.5; O -118 / U -102", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.5 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/edmonton-oilers-san-jose-sharks-401892471-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892471", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.385162+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.4390243902439024, 3.2804878048780486 ], "current_rates": [ 5.5, 4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.5609756097560976 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 3.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892471", "away": "Edmonton Oilers", "home": "San Jose Sharks", "startTime": "4:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+160) / +1.5 (-192)", "ml": "-155 / +130", "total": "6.5; O -118 / U -102", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.5 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/edmonton-oilers-san-jose-sharks-401892471-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892471", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.385162+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.5666666666666664, 3.325609756097561 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.4390243902439024, 3.2804878048780486 ], "current_rates": [ 5.5, 4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.5609756097560976 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 3.5 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.7009864161824293, 3.25891998400651 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.4878, 3.13414 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2633", "side": "away", "player": "Faizon Brandon", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "isolated_score": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 36.2575, 21.354999999999997 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 40.75, "pa": 28.75, "margin": 12, "event_ids": [ "401752676", "401752692", "401752705", "401752715", "401752720", "401752735", "401752738", "401752747", "401752757", "401752771", "401752775", "401752791" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.8, "pa": 15.2, "margin": 21.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856666", "401856681", "401856692", "401856704", "401856710" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.916666666666664, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -0.9166666666666714, "event_ids": [ "401752666", "401752682", "401752700", "401752708", "401752717", "401752735", "401752739", "401752746", "401752753", "401752768", "401752780", "401752783" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 19.8, "pa": 28.4, "margin": -8.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401856635", "401856670", "401856686", "401856697", "401856711" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 37.29166666666667, 30.833333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.599999999999994, 17.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.3116666666666665, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 39.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 39.5, 21.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "adjustedScore": [ 39.2575, 21.354999999999997 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "isolated_score": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 14.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "current_rates": [ 30.4, 30.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 34.92307692307692, 8.153846153846153 ], "current_rates": [ 42.2, 12.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.908145018500839, 36.81699500640866 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "isolated_score": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "isolated_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 36.81699500640866 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 7.908145018500839, 36.81699500640866 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 11, 40 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8, 40 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -3, "event_ids": [ "401752797", "401752826", "401752838", "401752845", "401752857", "401752867", "401752879", "401752887", "401752894", "401752906", "401752914", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 30.2, "margin": 0.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401858427", "401858444", "401858232", "401858462", "401858475" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34.92307692307692, "pa": 8.153846153846153, "margin": 26.769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401752677", "401752815", "401752827", "401752852", "401752859", "401752865", "401752877", "401752889", "401752897", "401752900", "401752912", "401752921", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.2, "pa": 12.6, "margin": 29.6, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401856682", "401858454", "401858465", "401858473" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 15.826923076923077, 30.71153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.5, 36.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.9169230769230765, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 12.5, 41 ], "display_adjusted": [ 9.5, 41 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -3, "event_ids": [ "401752797", "401752826", "401752838", "401752845", "401752857", "401752867", "401752879", "401752887", "401752894", "401752906", "401752914", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 30.2, "margin": 0.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401858427", "401858444", "401858232", "401858462", "401858475" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34.92307692307692, "pa": 8.153846153846153, "margin": 26.769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401752677", "401752815", "401752827", "401752852", "401752859", "401752865", "401752877", "401752889", "401752897", "401752900", "401752912", "401752921", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.2, "pa": 12.6, "margin": 29.6, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401856682", "401858454", "401858465", "401858473" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 15.826923076923077, 30.71153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.5, 36.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.9169230769230765, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 12.5, 41 ], "display_adjusted": [ 9.5, 41 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "adjustedScore": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858483", "away": "Maryland Terrapins", "home": "Ohio State Buckeyes", "startTime": "4:15 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Maryland Terrapins 16, Ohio State Buckeyes 45", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+33.5 (-112) / -33.5 (-108)", "ml": "Unavailable / Unavailable", "total": "56.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 9.5 / 41.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/maryland-terrapins-ohio-state-buckeyes-401858483-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858483", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.584761+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "isolated_score": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 14.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 33.95629370629371 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 14.655594405594403, 30.956293706293707 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.5, 26.5 ], "current_rates": [ 30.4, 30.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 34.92307692307692, 8.153846153846153 ], "current_rates": [ 42.2, 12.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 17.5, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "adjusted_score": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "conditional_score": [ 7.908145018500839, 36.81699500640866 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "isolated_score": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 7.908145018500839, 39.81699500640866 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 39.81699500640866 ], "isolated_score": [ 10.90814501850084, 36.81699500640866 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 7.908145018500839, 36.81699500640866 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 11, 40 ], "display_adjusted": [ 8, 40 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -3, "event_ids": [ "401752797", "401752826", "401752838", "401752845", "401752857", "401752867", "401752879", "401752887", "401752894", "401752906", "401752914", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 30.2, "margin": 0.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401858427", "401858444", "401858232", "401858462", "401858475" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34.92307692307692, "pa": 8.153846153846153, "margin": 26.769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401752677", "401752815", "401752827", "401752852", "401752859", "401752865", "401752877", "401752889", "401752897", "401752900", "401752912", "401752921", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.2, "pa": 12.6, "margin": 29.6, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401856682", "401858454", "401858465", "401858473" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 15.826923076923077, 30.71153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.5, 36.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.9169230769230765, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 12.5, 41 ], "display_adjusted": [ 9.5, 41 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "adjusted_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "conditional_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "120", "side": "away", "player": "Harry Dalton III", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ] }, { "teamId": "194", "side": "home", "player": "Brandon Inniss", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "isolated_score": [ 12.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 9.746538461538464, 37.87269230769231 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.5, "pa": 26.5, "margin": -3, "event_ids": [ "401752797", "401752826", "401752838", "401752845", "401752857", "401752867", "401752879", "401752887", "401752894", "401752906", "401752914", "401752923" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 30.2, "margin": 0.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401858427", "401858444", "401858232", "401858462", "401858475" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 34.92307692307692, "pa": 8.153846153846153, "margin": 26.769230769230766, "event_ids": [ "401752677", "401752815", "401752827", "401752852", "401752859", "401752865", "401752877", "401752889", "401752897", "401752900", "401752912", "401752921", "401777353" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 42.2, "pa": 12.6, "margin": 29.6, "event_ids": [ "401858432", "401856682", "401858454", "401858465", "401858473" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 15.826923076923077, 30.71153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 21.5, 36.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.9169230769230765, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 12.5, 41 ], "display_adjusted": [ 9.5, 41 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 12.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "adjustedScore": [ 9.746538461538464, 40.87269230769231 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 16.0, 45.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604148", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.756183+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604148", "official_event_id": 6604148, "scores": [ 16, 45 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.756183+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604148", "official_event_id": 6604148, "scores": [ 16, 45 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.756183+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401867877", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867877", "away": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "home": "Northern Iowa Panthers", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-14.5 (-113) / +14.5 (-110)", "ml": "-511 / +362", "total": "58.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 37.5 / 20.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/north-dakota-fighting-hawks-northern-iowa-panthers-401867877-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867877", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.616373+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 32.332142857142856, 23.247619047619047 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.332142857142856, 23.247619047619047 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.332142857142856, 23.247619047619047 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 14, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 32.92857142857143, 19.857142857142858 ], "current_rates": [ 42.5, 27.833333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.25, 26.75 ], "current_rates": [ 27, 31 ] } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 32.92857142857143, "pa": 19.857142857142858, "margin": 13.071428571428573, "event_ids": [ "401756855", "401767127", "401767098", "401767502", "401767503", "401767504", "401767505", "401767450", "401767506", "401767507", "401767501", "401767508", "401836115", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 42.5, "pa": 27.833333333333332, "margin": 14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401867875", "401867876", "401858452", "401867858", "401867869" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 26.75, "margin": -9.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401760367", "401767060", "401767308", "401767503", "401767537", "401767538", "401767539", "401767442", "401767500", "401767514", "401767540" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27, "pa": 31, "margin": -4, "event_ids": [ "401868085", "401868255", "401858471", "401867847" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.123809523809524, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 32.92857142857143, "pa": 19.857142857142858, "margin": 13.071428571428573, "event_ids": [ "401756855", "401767127", "401767098", "401767502", "401767503", "401767504", "401767505", "401767450", "401767506", "401767507", "401767501", "401767508", "401836115", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 42.5, "pa": 27.833333333333332, "margin": 14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401867875", "401867876", "401858452", "401867858", "401867869" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 26.75, "margin": -9.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401760367", "401767060", "401767308", "401767503", "401767537", "401767538", "401767539", "401767442", "401767500", "401767514", "401767540" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27, "pa": 31, "margin": -4, "event_ids": [ "401868085", "401868255", "401858471", "401867847" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.123809523809524, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "adjustedScore": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401867877", "away": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks", "home": "Northern Iowa Panthers", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "North Dakota Fighting Hawks 17, Northern Iowa Panthers 24", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-14.5 (-113) / +14.5 (-110)", "ml": "-511 / +362", "total": "58.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 37.5 / 20.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/north-dakota-fighting-hawks-northern-iowa-panthers-401867877-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867877", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.616373+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 32.332142857142856, 23.247619047619047 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.332142857142856, 23.247619047619047 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.332142857142856, 23.247619047619047 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 14, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 32.92857142857143, 19.857142857142858 ], "current_rates": [ 42.5, 27.833333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.25, 26.75 ], "current_rates": [ 27, 31 ] } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.690927438838585, 25.971666538284445 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 32.92857142857143, "pa": 19.857142857142858, "margin": 13.071428571428573, "event_ids": [ "401756855", "401767127", "401767098", "401767502", "401767503", "401767504", "401767505", "401767450", "401767506", "401767507", "401767501", "401767508", "401836115", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 42.5, "pa": 27.833333333333332, "margin": 14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401867875", "401867876", "401858452", "401867858", "401867869" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 26.75, "margin": -9.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401760367", "401767060", "401767308", "401767503", "401767537", "401767538", "401767539", "401767442", "401767500", "401767514", "401767540" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27, "pa": 31, "margin": -4, "event_ids": [ "401868085", "401868255", "401858471", "401867847" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.123809523809524, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 32.92857142857143, "pa": 19.857142857142858, "margin": 13.071428571428573, "event_ids": [ "401756855", "401767127", "401767098", "401767502", "401767503", "401767504", "401767505", "401767450", "401767506", "401767507", "401767501", "401767508", "401836115", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 42.5, "pa": 27.833333333333332, "margin": 14.666666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401867874", "401867875", "401867876", "401858452", "401867858", "401867869" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.25, "pa": 26.75, "margin": -9.5, "event_ids": [ "401767536", "401760367", "401767060", "401767308", "401767503", "401767537", "401767538", "401767539", "401767442", "401767500", "401767514", "401767540" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27, "pa": 31, "margin": -4, "event_ids": [ "401868085", "401868255", "401858471", "401867847" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.839285714285715, 18.55357142857143 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.75, 27.416666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.123809523809524, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37.5, 20.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "adjustedScore": [ 37.41845238095239, 20.361309523809524 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 17.0, 24.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604536", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.757697+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604536", "official_event_id": 6604536, "scores": [ 17, 24 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.757697+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604536", "official_event_id": 6604536, "scores": [ 17, 24 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.757697+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868115", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868115", "away": "Montana Grizzlies", "home": "Northern Arizona Lumberjacks", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-9.5 (-110) / +9.5 (-113)", "ml": "-305 / +233", "total": "64.5; O -110 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 38.0 / 24.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/montana-grizzlies-northern-arizona-lumberjacks-401868115-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868115", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.606307+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 33.905448717948715, 27.105769230769234 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.905448717948715, 27.105769230769234 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.905448717948715, 27.105769230769234 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 41.53846153846154, 23.923076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 37.166666666666664, 22.166666666666668 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 31.666666666666668, 31.25 ], "current_rates": [ 27.666666666666668, 28.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 34, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 34, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.966120382254548, 28.352021068130284 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.966120382254548, 28.352021068130284 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.966120382254548, 28.352021068130284 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 14.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767179", "401761602", "401767421", "401767422", "401767312", "401767363", "401767419", "401767423", "401767424", "401767393", "401767378", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.8, "pa": 18, "margin": 21.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401868958", "401868959", "401868960", "401868295" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 26.083333333333332, "margin": -2, "event_ids": [ "401788977", "401752815", "401767395", "401767416", "401767417", "401767418", "401767383", "401767419", "401767315", "401767392", "401767377", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.2, "pa": 35.2, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401868952", "401868953", "401856789", "401868954", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.458333333333336, 21.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 37.5, 27.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6883333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 14.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767179", "401761602", "401767421", "401767422", "401767312", "401767363", "401767419", "401767423", "401767424", "401767393", "401767378", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.8, "pa": 18, "margin": 21.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401868958", "401868959", "401868960", "401868295" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 26.083333333333332, "margin": -2, "event_ids": [ "401788977", "401752815", "401767395", "401767416", "401767417", "401767418", "401767383", "401767419", "401767315", "401767392", "401767377", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.2, "pa": 35.2, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401868952", "401868953", "401856789", "401868954", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.458333333333336, 21.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 37.5, 27.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6883333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "adjustedScore": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868955", "away": "Jackson State Tigers", "home": "Grambling Tigers", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Jackson State Tigers 38, Grambling Tigers 45", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-8.5 (-113) / +8.5 (-110)", "ml": "-368 / +275", "total": "55.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 37.0 / 22.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/jackson-state-tigers-grambling-tigers-401868955-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868955", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.609823+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 32.36363636363636, 24.75 ], "adjusted_score": [ 32.36363636363636, 24.75 ], "conditional_score": [ 32.36363636363636, 24.75 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.833333333333336, 18.75 ], "current_rates": [ 39.8, 18 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.083333333333332, 26.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36.2, 35.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 32.5, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 32.5, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.966120382254548, 28.352021068130284 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.966120382254548, 28.352021068130284 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.966120382254548, 28.352021068130284 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 14.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767179", "401761602", "401767421", "401767422", "401767312", "401767363", "401767419", "401767423", "401767424", "401767393", "401767378", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.8, "pa": 18, "margin": 21.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401868958", "401868959", "401868960", "401868295" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 26.083333333333332, "margin": -2, "event_ids": [ "401788977", "401752815", "401767395", "401767416", "401767417", "401767418", "401767383", "401767419", "401767315", "401767392", "401767377", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.2, "pa": 35.2, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401868952", "401868953", "401856789", "401868954", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.458333333333336, 21.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 37.5, 27.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6883333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 32.833333333333336, "pa": 18.75, "margin": 14.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767179", "401761602", "401767421", "401767422", "401767312", "401767363", "401767419", "401767423", "401767424", "401767393", "401767378", "401777350" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.8, "pa": 18, "margin": 21.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868194", "401868958", "401868959", "401868960", "401868295" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.083333333333332, "pa": 26.083333333333332, "margin": -2, "event_ids": [ "401788977", "401752815", "401767395", "401767416", "401767417", "401767418", "401767383", "401767419", "401767315", "401767392", "401767377", "401767420" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 36.2, "pa": 35.2, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401868952", "401868953", "401856789", "401868954", "401868359" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 29.458333333333336, 21.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 37.5, 27.1 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.6883333333333335, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 37, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 37, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "adjustedScore": [ 37.167500000000004, 22.07 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 38.0, 45.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604768", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.762772+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604768", "official_event_id": 6604768, "scores": [ 38, 45 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.762772+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604768", "official_event_id": 6604768, "scores": [ 38, 45 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.762772+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401916277", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401916277", "away": "Francisco Prado", "home": "Ismael Bonfim", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-145 / +122", "total": "1.5; O -215 / U +178", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/francisco-prado-ismael-bonfim-401916277-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401916277", "away": "Francisco Prado", "home": "Ismael Bonfim", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Francisco Prado won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-145 / +122", "total": "1.5; O -215 / U +178", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/francisco-prado-ismael-bonfim-401916277-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Francisco Prado", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Francisco Prado", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401924511", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401924511", "away": "Ernesta Kareckaite", "home": "Melissa Gatto", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-105 / -115", "total": "2.5; O -345 / U +276", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/ernesta-kareckaite-melissa-gatto-401924511-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401924511", "away": "Ernesta Kareckaite", "home": "Melissa Gatto", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Majority draw: Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto (29-27, 28-28, 28-28)", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-105 / -115", "total": "2.5; O -345 / U +276", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/ernesta-kareckaite-melissa-gatto-401924511-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": null, "result": "majority draw", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": null, "result": "majority draw", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401924512", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401924512", "away": "Alice Pereira", "home": "Daria Zhelezniakova", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-135 / +114", "total": "2.5; O -200 / U +166", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/alice-pereira-daria-zhelezniakova-401924512-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401924512", "away": "Alice Pereira", "home": "Daria Zhelezniakova", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Alice Pereira won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-135 / +114", "total": "2.5; O -200 / U +166", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/alice-pereira-daria-zhelezniakova-401924512-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Alice Pereira", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Alice Pereira", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401927417", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927417", "away": "Julius Walker", "home": "Gerald Meerschaert", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-315 / +258", "total": "1.5; O +105 / U -125", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/julius-walker-gerald-meerschaert-401927417-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927417", "away": "Julius Walker", "home": "Gerald Meerschaert", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Julius Walker won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-315 / +258", "total": "1.5; O +105 / U -125", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/julius-walker-gerald-meerschaert-401927417-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Julius Walker", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Julius Walker", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401927418", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927418", "away": "Allen Frye Jr.", "home": "RJ Harris", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "+276 / -345", "total": "1.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/allen-frye-jr-rj-harris-401927418-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927418", "away": "Allen Frye Jr.", "home": "RJ Harris", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Allen Frye Jr. won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "+276 / -345", "total": "1.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/allen-frye-jr-rj-harris-401927418-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Allen Frye Jr.", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Allen Frye Jr.", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401927419", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927419", "away": "Niko Price", "home": "Leon Shahbazyan", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "+122 / -145", "total": "1.5; O +182 / U -220", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/niko-price-leon-shahbazyan-401927419-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927419", "away": "Niko Price", "home": "Leon Shahbazyan", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Niko Price won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "+122 / -145", "total": "1.5; O +182 / U -220", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/niko-price-leon-shahbazyan-401927419-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Niko Price", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Niko Price", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401927420", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927420", "away": "Felipe Franco", "home": "Brendson Ribeiro", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-385 / +300", "total": "1.5; O +142 / U -170", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/felipe-franco-brendson-ribeiro-401927420-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927420", "away": "Felipe Franco", "home": "Brendson Ribeiro", "startTime": "5:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Brendson Ribeiro won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-385 / +300", "total": "1.5; O +142 / U -170", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/felipe-franco-brendson-ribeiro-401927420-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Brendson Ribeiro", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-prelim-results", "winner": "Brendson Ribeiro", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:29:12.651107+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401860902", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401860902", "away": "San Diego State Aztecs", "home": "Oregon State Beavers", "startTime": "6:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+16.5 (-112) / -16.5 (-108)", "ml": "+525 / -750", "total": "52.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 26.0 / 25.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/san-diego-state-aztecs-oregon-state-beavers-401860902-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860902", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.961979+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.666666666666668, 12.583333333333334 ], "current_rates": [ 24.6, 28.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 29.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 37, 23.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 12.583333333333334, "margin": 12.083333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401752948", "401754540", "401760380", "401760382", "401760390", "401760399", "401760405", "401760408", "401760410", "401760420", "401760426" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.6, "pa": 28.8, "margin": -4.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401860879", "401858443", "401860887", "401860893", "401860900" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 29.416666666666668, "margin": -11.25, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401752937", "401752938", "401752841", "401752939", "401752940", "401754563", "401752941", "401752943", "401752944", "401752945", "401752946" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 13.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856783", "401860886", "401860895", "401860899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.041666666666668, 15.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 32.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5733333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 12.583333333333334, "margin": 12.083333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401752948", "401754540", "401760380", "401760382", "401760390", "401760399", "401760405", "401760408", "401760410", "401760420", "401760426" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.6, "pa": 28.8, "margin": -4.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401860879", "401858443", "401860887", "401860893", "401860900" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 29.416666666666668, "margin": -11.25, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401752937", "401752938", "401752841", "401752939", "401752940", "401754563", "401752941", "401752943", "401752944", "401752945", "401752946" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 13.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856783", "401860886", "401860895", "401860899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.041666666666668, 15.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 32.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5733333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "adjustedScore": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401860902", "away": "San Diego State Aztecs", "home": "Oregon State Beavers", "startTime": "6:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "San Diego State Aztecs 14, Oregon State Beavers 66", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+16.5 (-112) / -16.5 (-108)", "ml": "+525 / -750", "total": "52.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 26.0 / 25.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/san-diego-state-aztecs-oregon-state-beavers-401860902-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860902", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.961979+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.954545454545453, 24.09090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.666666666666668, 12.583333333333334 ], "current_rates": [ 24.6, 28.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.166666666666668, 29.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 37, 23.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.288879471930844, 28.192634284463697 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 12.583333333333334, "margin": 12.083333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401752948", "401754540", "401760380", "401760382", "401760390", "401760399", "401760405", "401760408", "401760410", "401760420", "401760426" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.6, "pa": 28.8, "margin": -4.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401860879", "401858443", "401860887", "401860893", "401860900" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 29.416666666666668, "margin": -11.25, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401752937", "401752938", "401752841", "401752939", "401752940", "401754563", "401752941", "401752943", "401752944", "401752945", "401752946" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 13.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856783", "401860886", "401860895", "401860899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.041666666666668, 15.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 32.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5733333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 12.583333333333334, "margin": 12.083333333333334, "event_ids": [ "401760357", "401752948", "401754540", "401760380", "401760382", "401760390", "401760399", "401760405", "401760408", "401760410", "401760420", "401760426" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.6, "pa": 28.8, "margin": -4.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401860879", "401858443", "401860887", "401860893", "401860900" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.166666666666668, "pa": 29.416666666666668, "margin": -11.25, "event_ids": [ "401752936", "401752937", "401752938", "401752841", "401752939", "401752940", "401754563", "401752941", "401752943", "401752944", "401752945", "401752946" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 13.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401856778", "401856783", "401860886", "401860895", "401860899" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.041666666666668, 15.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 32.9 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.5733333333333336, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "adjustedScore": [ 26.144166666666667, 25.064166666666665 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 14.0, 66.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604302", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.765812+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604302", "official_event_id": 6604302, "scores": [ 14, 66 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.765812+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604302", "official_event_id": 6604302, "scores": [ 14, 66 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.765812+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868078", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868078", "away": "Cal Poly Mustangs", "home": "Idaho State Bengals", "startTime": "6:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+14.5 (-110) / -14.5 (-113)", "ml": "+489 / -760", "total": "63.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 24.0 / 37.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/cal-poly-mustangs-idaho-state-bengals-401868078-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868078", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.913446+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.958333333333332, 33.867424242424235 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.958333333333332, 33.867424242424235 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.958333333333332, 33.867424242424235 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 27.5, 31.5 ], "current_rates": [ 30.333333333333332, 31.333333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 33, 27.25 ], "current_rates": [ 37, 21.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.021241953245756, 37.074771503141875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.021241953245756, 37.074771503141875 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.021241953245756, 37.074771503141875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 31.5, "margin": -4, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401756887", "401767071", "401767072", "401767073", "401767074", "401767079", "401767075", "401767076", "401767077", "401767078", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.333333333333332, "pa": 31.333333333333332, "margin": -1, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401868074", "401864504", "401868075", "401868076", "401868077" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33, "pa": 27.25, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401767080", "401760366", "401767081", "401767082", "401767083", "401767084", "401767085", "401767086", "401767077", "401767087", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 15.8, "event_ids": [ "401868101", "401860880", "401868102", "401868103", "401868104" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.375, 32.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.766666666666666, 34.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.6550000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 31.5, "margin": -4, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401756887", "401767071", "401767072", "401767073", "401767074", "401767079", "401767075", "401767076", "401767077", "401767078", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.333333333333332, "pa": 31.333333333333332, "margin": -1, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401868074", "401864504", "401868075", "401868076", "401868077" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33, "pa": 27.25, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401767080", "401760366", "401767081", "401767082", "401767083", "401767084", "401767085", "401767086", "401767077", "401767087", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 15.8, "event_ids": [ "401868101", "401860880", "401868102", "401868103", "401868104" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.375, 32.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.766666666666666, 34.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.6550000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868078", "away": "Cal Poly Mustangs", "home": "Idaho State Bengals", "startTime": "6:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Cal Poly Mustangs 25, Idaho State Bengals 24", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+14.5 (-110) / -14.5 (-113)", "ml": "+489 / -760", "total": "63.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 24.0 / 37.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/cal-poly-mustangs-idaho-state-bengals-401868078-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868078", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.913446+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.958333333333332, 33.867424242424235 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.958333333333332, 33.867424242424235 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.958333333333332, 33.867424242424235 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 27.5, 31.5 ], "current_rates": [ 30.333333333333332, 31.333333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 33, 27.25 ], "current_rates": [ 37, 21.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 26, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.021241953245756, 37.074771503141875 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.021241953245756, 37.074771503141875 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.021241953245756, 37.074771503141875 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 31.5, "margin": -4, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401756887", "401767071", "401767072", "401767073", "401767074", "401767079", "401767075", "401767076", "401767077", "401767078", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.333333333333332, "pa": 31.333333333333332, "margin": -1, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401868074", "401864504", "401868075", "401868076", "401868077" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33, "pa": 27.25, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401767080", "401760366", "401767081", "401767082", "401767083", "401767084", "401767085", "401767086", "401767077", "401767087", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 15.8, "event_ids": [ "401868101", "401860880", "401868102", "401868103", "401868104" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.375, 32.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.766666666666666, 34.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.6550000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 31.5, "margin": -4, "event_ids": [ "401767070", "401756887", "401767071", "401767072", "401767073", "401767074", "401767079", "401767075", "401767076", "401767077", "401767078", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 30.333333333333332, "pa": 31.333333333333332, "margin": -1, "event_ids": [ "401868073", "401868074", "401864504", "401868075", "401868076", "401868077" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 33, "pa": 27.25, "margin": 5.75, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401767080", "401760366", "401767081", "401767082", "401767083", "401767084", "401767085", "401767086", "401767077", "401767087", "401767088" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 37, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 15.8, "event_ids": [ "401868101", "401860880", "401868102", "401868103", "401868104" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.375, 32.25 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.766666666666666, 34.166666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": -2.6550000000000002, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24, 37.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 37.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "adjustedScore": [ 23.91583333333333, 37.36333333333333 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.545454545454547, 21.181818181818183 ], "current_rates": [ 18.6, 33 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 19.333333333333332, 24.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 16, 29.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.545454545454547, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 4.363636363636363, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401769868", "401767300", "401767278", "401767293", "401767250", "401767242", "401767301", "401767302", "401767289", "401767303" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 33, "margin": -14.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401864425", "401868241", "401868242", "401868243" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.333333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401754519", "401767277", "401761606", "401767278", "401767279", "401767251", "401767280", "401767281", "401767282", "401767283", "401767246", "401767284" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16, "pa": 29.6, "margin": -13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401868140", "401868141", "401868142", "401868143" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.8563636363636367, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.545454545454547, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 4.363636363636363, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401769868", "401767300", "401767278", "401767293", "401767250", "401767242", "401767301", "401767302", "401767289", "401767303" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 33, "margin": -14.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401864425", "401868241", "401868242", "401868243" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.333333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401754519", "401767277", "401761606", "401767278", "401767279", "401767251", "401767280", "401767281", "401767282", "401767283", "401767246", "401767284" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16, "pa": 29.6, "margin": -13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401868140", "401868141", "401868142", "401868143" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.8563636363636367, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "adjustedScore": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868144", "away": "West Georgia Wolves", "home": "Eastern Kentucky Colonels", "startTime": "6:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "West Georgia Wolves 20, Eastern Kentucky Colonels 30", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+5.5 (-113) / -5.5 (-110)", "ml": "+171 / -217", "total": "45.5; O -107 / U -116", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 25.5 / 23.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/west-georgia-wolves-eastern-kentucky-colonels-401868144-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868144", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.881782+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.80785123966942, 22.93595041322314 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.80785123966942, 22.93595041322314 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.80785123966942, 22.93595041322314 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 11, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 25.545454545454547, 21.181818181818183 ], "current_rates": [ 18.6, 33 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 19.333333333333332, 24.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 16, 29.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.45439328573243, 25.289819845579323 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.45439328573243, 25.289819845579323 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.45439328573243, 25.289819845579323 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.545454545454547, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 4.363636363636363, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401769868", "401767300", "401767278", "401767293", "401767250", "401767242", "401767301", "401767302", "401767289", "401767303" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 33, "margin": -14.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401864425", "401868241", "401868242", "401868243" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.333333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401754519", "401767277", "401761606", "401767278", "401767279", "401767251", "401767280", "401767281", "401767282", "401767283", "401767246", "401767284" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16, "pa": 29.6, "margin": -13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401868140", "401868141", "401868142", "401868143" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.8563636363636367, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 11, "pf": 25.545454545454547, "pa": 21.181818181818183, "margin": 4.363636363636363, "event_ids": [ "401767298", "401769868", "401767300", "401767278", "401767293", "401767250", "401767242", "401767301", "401767302", "401767289", "401767303" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.6, "pa": 33, "margin": -14.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868240", "401864425", "401868241", "401868242", "401868243" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 19.333333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -5, "event_ids": [ "401754519", "401767277", "401761606", "401767278", "401767279", "401767251", "401767280", "401767281", "401767282", "401767283", "401767246", "401767284" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16, "pa": 29.6, "margin": -13.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401868139", "401868140", "401868141", "401868142", "401868143" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.939393939393938, 20.257575757575758 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.1, 24.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.8563636363636367, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 23 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 23 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "adjustedScore": [ 25.376060606060605, 23.022424242424243 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 20.0, 30.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://ekusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.601956+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://ekusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "scores": [ 20, 30 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.601956+00:00", "note": "Official NCAA feed scores null; official school schedule confirms final." } } }, "official": { "url": "https://ekusports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026", "scores": [ 20, 30 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.601956+00:00", "note": "Official NCAA feed scores null; official school schedule confirms final." }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401891805", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401891805", "away": "Minnesota Wild", "home": "Florida Panthers", "startTime": "6:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-230) / -1.5 (+190)", "ml": "+114 / -135", "total": "5.5; O -118 / U -102", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.5 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/minnesota-wild-florida-panthers-401891805-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401891805", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.917763+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 2.75, 2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.3658536585365852 ], "current_rates": [ 2, 2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401891805", "away": "Minnesota Wild", "home": "Florida Panthers", "startTime": "6:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-230) / -1.5 (+190)", "ml": "+114 / -135", "total": "5.5; O -118 / U -102", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.5 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/minnesota-wild-florida-panthers-401891805-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401891805", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.917763+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.080386178861789, 2.928252032520325 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 2.75, 2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.3658536585365852 ], "current_rates": [ 2, 2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1246006311698076, 3.038138671682006 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.304875, 2.932925 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "retrieved": null, "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020073 } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020073 }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401902645", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401902645", "away": "LA Clippers", "home": "Toronto Raptors", "startTime": "6:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+4.5 (-108) / -4.5 (-112)", "ml": "+154 / -185", "total": "216.5; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 113.0 / 113.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/la-clippers-toronto-raptors-401902645-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.945873+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 113.76829268292683, 112.63414634146342 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.63414634146342, 111.8048780487805 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 115 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 115 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 110.5, 112 ], "display_adjusted": [ 110.5, 112 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 113.768295, "pa": 112.63415 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113, 113.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113, 113.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 113.768295, "pa": 112.63415 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113, 113.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113, 113.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "adjustedScore": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401902645", "away": "LA Clippers", "home": "Toronto Raptors", "startTime": "6:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "LA Clippers 106, Toronto Raptors 114", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+4.5 (-108) / -4.5 (-112)", "ml": "+154 / -185", "total": "216.5; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 113.0 / 113.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/la-clippers-toronto-raptors-401902645-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:39.945873+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.28658536585365, 115.13414634146342 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 113.76829268292683, 112.63414634146342 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.63414634146342, 111.8048780487805 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 115 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 115 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.56402571587643, 111.78662743439084 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 110.5, 112 ], "display_adjusted": [ 110.5, 112 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 113.768295, "pa": 112.63415 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113, 113.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113, 113.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 113.768295, "pa": 112.63415 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113, 113.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113, 113.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "adjustedScore": [ 112.7865875, 113.63415 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 106.0, 114.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-raptors-114-clippers-106?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.914069+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-raptors-114-clippers-106?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 106, 114 ], "publication_date": "Oct 10, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 38.25, "margin": -11.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401762430", "401762458", "401762463", "401752715", "401762476", "401762482", "401762487", "401757173", "401762502", "401762506", "401762511", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24, "pa": 23.4, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.583333333333336, "pa": 22.5, "margin": 12.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401761598", "401761608", "401752708", "401762472", "401762478", "401762487", "401762494", "401762497", "401762501", "401762508", "401762516" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.6, "pa": 22.4, "margin": 16.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401862695", "401860881", "401862772", "401862787" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.2, 31 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.9516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20, 39 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 39 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 38.25, "margin": -11.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401762430", "401762458", "401762463", "401752715", "401762476", "401762482", "401762487", "401757173", "401762502", "401762506", "401762511", "401762517" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24, "pa": 23.4, "margin": 0.6000000000000014, "event_ids": [ "401858424", "401862708", "401862776", "401862778", "401862793" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 34.583333333333336, "pa": 22.5, "margin": 12.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401762433", "401761598", "401761608", "401752708", "401762472", "401762478", "401762487", "401762494", "401762497", "401762501", "401762508", "401762516" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 38.6, "pa": 22.4, "margin": 16.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401862695", "401860881", "401862772", "401862787" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.458333333333336, 36.41666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.2, 31 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.9516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20, 39 ], "display_adjusted": [ 20, 39 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "adjustedScore": [ 19.877499999999998, 39.160000000000004 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.583333333333332, 27.5 ], "current_rates": [ 27.25, 24.25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.333333333333332, 30.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 16.4, 41.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 22.436080811904493 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.583333333333332, "pa": 27.5, "margin": -9.916666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401760365", "401757258", "401757268", "401760383", "401760390", "401760395", "401760397", "401760409", "401760413", "401760419", "401760425" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.25, "pa": 24.25, "margin": 3, "event_ids": [ "401864432", "401864500", "401864443", "401864509" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 30.416666666666668, "margin": -7.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401757225", "401757231", "401752706", "401757267", "401757272", "401757277", "401757284", "401757289", "401757297", "401757304", "401757309", "401757310" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -25, "event_ids": [ "401856664", "401864505", "401858450", "401860895", "401864514" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24, 25.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.325, 20.325 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.583333333333332, "pa": 27.5, "margin": -9.916666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401760365", "401757258", "401757268", "401760383", "401760390", "401760395", "401760397", "401760409", "401760413", "401760419", "401760425" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.25, "pa": 24.25, "margin": 3, "event_ids": [ "401864432", "401864500", "401864443", "401864509" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 30.416666666666668, "margin": -7.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401757225", "401757231", "401752706", "401757267", "401757272", "401757277", "401757284", "401757289", "401757297", "401757304", "401757309", "401757310" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -25, "event_ids": [ "401856664", "401864505", "401858450", "401860895", "401864514" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24, 25.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.325, 20.325 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "adjustedScore": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401864517", "away": "Nevada Wolf Pack", "home": "UTEP Miners", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Nevada Wolf Pack 30, UTEP Miners 13", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-9.5 (-115) / +9.5 (-105)", "ml": "-375 / +295", "total": "49.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 31.5 / 22.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/nevada-wolf-pack-utep-miners-401864517-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864517", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.097402+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 17.94090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 23.94090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.679545454545455, 20.94090909090909 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.583333333333332, 27.5 ], "current_rates": [ 27.25, 24.25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.333333333333332, 30.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 16.4, 41.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 24 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 24 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 22.436080811904493 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 28.436080811904493 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.54230327367908, 25.436080811904493 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.583333333333332, "pa": 27.5, "margin": -9.916666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401760365", "401757258", "401757268", "401760383", "401760390", "401760395", "401760397", "401760409", "401760413", "401760419", "401760425" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.25, "pa": 24.25, "margin": 3, "event_ids": [ "401864432", "401864500", "401864443", "401864509" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 30.416666666666668, "margin": -7.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401757225", "401757231", "401752706", "401757267", "401757272", "401757277", "401757284", "401757289", "401757297", "401757304", "401757309", "401757310" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -25, "event_ids": [ "401856664", "401864505", "401858450", "401860895", "401864514" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24, 25.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.325, 20.325 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 15.854166666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "EJ Colson Jr.", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] }, { "teamId": "2638", "side": "home", "player": "Tavorus Jones", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.679166666666667, 18.854166666666664 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.583333333333332, "pa": 27.5, "margin": -9.916666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401760365", "401757258", "401757268", "401760383", "401760390", "401760395", "401760397", "401760409", "401760413", "401760419", "401760425" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 27.25, "pa": 24.25, "margin": 3, "event_ids": [ "401864432", "401864500", "401864443", "401864509" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.333333333333332, "pa": 30.416666666666668, "margin": -7.083333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401757225", "401757231", "401752706", "401757267", "401757272", "401757277", "401757284", "401757289", "401757297", "401757304", "401757309", "401757310" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 16.4, "pa": 41.4, "margin": -25, "event_ids": [ "401856664", "401864505", "401858450", "401860895", "401864514" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24, 25.416666666666664 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.325, 20.325 ], "bounded_mismatch": 2.516666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "adjustedScore": [ 31.679166666666667, 21.854166666666664 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 30.0, 13.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603907", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.776375+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603907", "official_event_id": 6603907, "scores": [ 30, 13 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.776375+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603907", "official_event_id": 6603907, "scores": [ 30, 13 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.776375+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401864518", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401864518", "away": "North Dakota State Bison", "home": "UNLV Rebels", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "North Dakota State Bison -2.5 (-112)", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Pick of the Day", "tier": "Pick of the Day", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-2.5 (-112) / +2.5 (-108)", "ml": "-135 / +114", "total": "47.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 36.0 / 18.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/north-dakota-state-bison-unlv-rebels-401864518-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864518", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.085338+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 41.07692307692308, 13 ], "current_rates": [ 33.6, 9.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 35.92307692307692, 28.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 25, 23.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 27, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.07692307692308, "pa": 13, "margin": 28.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767224", "401767217", "401767510", "401767438", "401767511", "401767449", "401767512", "401767513", "401767507", "401767514", "401767515", "401836198" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.6, "pa": 9.8, "margin": 23.8, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401864499", "401864502", "401864507", "401864515" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 35.92307692307692, "pa": 28.846153846153847, "margin": 7.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401757224", "401752823", "401760376", "401760385", "401760386", "401760393", "401760404", "401760407", "401760414", "401760418", "401760425", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 1.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401864497", "401862705", "401864512", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.340000000000001, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 36, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.07692307692308, "pa": 13, "margin": 28.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767224", "401767217", "401767510", "401767438", "401767511", "401767449", "401767512", "401767513", "401767507", "401767514", "401767515", "401836198" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.6, "pa": 9.8, "margin": 23.8, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401864499", "401864502", "401864507", "401864515" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 35.92307692307692, "pa": 28.846153846153847, "margin": 7.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401757224", "401752823", "401760376", "401760385", "401760386", "401760393", "401760404", "401760407", "401760414", "401760418", "401760425", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 1.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401864497", "401862705", "401864512", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.340000000000001, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 36, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "adjustedScore": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "selectedMarketKind": "spread", "odds": -112, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401864518", "away": "North Dakota State Bison", "home": "UNLV Rebels", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "North Dakota State Bison -2.5 (-112)", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Pick of the Day", "tier": "Pick of the Day", "status": "loss", "final": "North Dakota State Bison 7, UNLV Rebels 13", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-2.5 (-112) / +2.5 (-108)", "ml": "-135 / +114", "total": "47.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 36.0 / 18.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/north-dakota-state-bison-unlv-rebels-401864518-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864518", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.085338+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.319930069930066, 22.00174825174825 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 41.07692307692308, 13 ], "current_rates": [ 33.6, 9.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 35.92307692307692, 28.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 25, 23.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 22 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 22 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.8800139642721, 25.949599301586733 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 27, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.07692307692308, "pa": 13, "margin": 28.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767224", "401767217", "401767510", "401767438", "401767511", "401767449", "401767512", "401767513", "401767507", "401767514", "401767515", "401836198" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.6, "pa": 9.8, "margin": 23.8, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401864499", "401864502", "401864507", "401864515" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 35.92307692307692, "pa": 28.846153846153847, "margin": 7.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401757224", "401752823", "401760376", "401760385", "401760386", "401760393", "401760404", "401760407", "401760414", "401760418", "401760425", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 1.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401864497", "401862705", "401864512", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.340000000000001, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 36, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "adjusted_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "conditional_score": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 41.07692307692308, "pa": 13, "margin": 28.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767509", "401767224", "401767217", "401767510", "401767438", "401767511", "401767449", "401767512", "401767513", "401767507", "401767514", "401767515", "401836198" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.6, "pa": 9.8, "margin": 23.8, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401864499", "401864502", "401864507", "401864515" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 35.92307692307692, "pa": 28.846153846153847, "margin": 7.076923076923073, "event_ids": [ "401760371", "401757224", "401752823", "401760376", "401760385", "401760386", "401760393", "401760404", "401760407", "401760414", "401760418", "401760425", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25, "pa": 23.6, "margin": 1.3999999999999986, "event_ids": [ "401862693", "401864497", "401862705", "401864512", "401858247" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 34.96153846153847, 24.46153846153846 ], "current_matchup": [ 28.6, 17.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": 4.340000000000001, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 36, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 36, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "adjustedScore": [ 36.120769230769234, 18.09076923076923 ], "selectedMarketKind": "spread", "odds": -112, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 44.07692307692308, 18 ], "current_rates": [ 39.4, 21.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 35.083333333333336, 27.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 37, 16.166666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.07692307692308, "pa": 18, "margin": 26.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767126", "401762432", "401767304", "401767305", "401767306", "401767294", "401767307", "401767301", "401767281", "401767244", "401767290", "401767276", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.4, "pa": 21.6, "margin": 17.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401866410", "401868236", "401868237", "401867688" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 7.7500000000000036, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752685", "401767248", "401767239", "401767249", "401767250", "401767251", "401767252", "401767253", "401767254", "401767255", "401767276" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 20.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401856669", "401868061", "401868062", "401868063", "401868064" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5293589743589742, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.07692307692308, "pa": 18, "margin": 26.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767126", "401762432", "401767304", "401767305", "401767306", "401767294", "401767307", "401767301", "401767281", "401767244", "401767290", "401767276", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.4, "pa": 21.6, "margin": 17.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401866410", "401868236", "401868237", "401867688" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 7.7500000000000036, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752685", "401767248", "401767239", "401767249", "401767250", "401767251", "401767252", "401767253", "401767254", "401767255", "401767276" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 20.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401856669", "401868061", "401868062", "401868063", "401868064" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5293589743589742, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868065", "away": "Tarleton State Texans", "home": "Austin Peay Governors", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Tarleton State Texans 40, Austin Peay Governors 32", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-101) / -1.5 (-123)", "ml": "+120 / -150", "total": "62.5; O -113 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 33.5 / 28.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/tarleton-state-texans-austin-peay-governors-401868065-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868065", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.160962+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.100524475524473, 28.589015151515152 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 44.07692307692308, 18 ], "current_rates": [ 39.4, 21.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 35.083333333333336, 27.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 37, 16.166666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 31, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.664470971515406, 32.82624550005951 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.07692307692308, "pa": 18, "margin": 26.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767126", "401762432", "401767304", "401767305", "401767306", "401767294", "401767307", "401767301", "401767281", "401767244", "401767290", "401767276", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.4, "pa": 21.6, "margin": 17.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401866410", "401868236", "401868237", "401867688" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 7.7500000000000036, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752685", "401767248", "401767239", "401767249", "401767250", "401767251", "401767252", "401767253", "401767254", "401767255", "401767276" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 20.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401856669", "401868061", "401868062", "401868063", "401868064" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5293589743589742, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 44.07692307692308, "pa": 18, "margin": 26.07692307692308, "event_ids": [ "401767126", "401762432", "401767304", "401767305", "401767306", "401767294", "401767307", "401767301", "401767281", "401767244", "401767290", "401767276", "401836217" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 39.4, "pa": 21.6, "margin": 17.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401868235", "401866410", "401868236", "401868237", "401867688" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 35.083333333333336, "pa": 27.333333333333332, "margin": 7.7500000000000036, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752685", "401767248", "401767239", "401767249", "401767250", "401767251", "401767252", "401767253", "401767254", "401767255", "401767276" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37, "pa": 16.166666666666668, "margin": 20.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401868060", "401856669", "401868061", "401868062", "401868063", "401868064" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.705128205128204, 26.541666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 27.78333333333333, 29.3 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.5293589743589742, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.27358974358974, 27.89147435897436 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 40.0, 32.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640276", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.781770+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640276", "official_event_id": 6640276, "scores": [ 40, 32 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.781770+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640276", "official_event_id": 6640276, "scores": [ 40, 32 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.781770+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401868087", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868087", "away": "Northern Colorado Bears", "home": "Eastern Washington Eagles", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+6.5 (-105) / -6.5 (-118)", "ml": "+195 / -250", "total": "58.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 27.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/northern-colorado-bears-eastern-washington-eagles-401868087-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868087", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.144548+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.104166666666668, 27.041666666666668 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.104166666666668, 27.041666666666668 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.104166666666668, 27.041666666666668 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 20.25, 28.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 23.166666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 23.416666666666668, 30.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 27.5, 37.833333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.62152430144331, 30.74102745341015 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.62152430144331, 30.74102745341015 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.62152430144331, 30.74102745341015 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.25, "pa": 28.416666666666668, "margin": -8.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767119", "401760364", "401767120", "401767121", "401767082", "401767122", "401767123", "401767124", "401767109", "401767117", "401767067", "401767125" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": -2.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401867883", "401864506", "401868130", "401868131", "401868114" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -6.75, "event_ids": [ "401767059", "401760363", "401767060", "401767061", "401767062", "401767063", "401767092", "401767065", "401767066", "401767069", "401767067", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 37.833333333333336, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401868084", "401868085", "401867884", "401858459", "401868076", "401868086" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.208333333333336, 25.916666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.5, 26.666666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6250000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.25, "pa": 28.416666666666668, "margin": -8.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767119", "401760364", "401767120", "401767121", "401767082", "401767122", "401767123", "401767124", "401767109", "401767117", "401767067", "401767125" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": -2.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401867883", "401864506", "401868130", "401868131", "401868114" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -6.75, "event_ids": [ "401767059", "401760363", "401767060", "401767061", "401767062", "401767063", "401767092", "401767065", "401767066", "401767069", "401767067", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 37.833333333333336, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401868084", "401868085", "401867884", "401858459", "401868076", "401868086" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.208333333333336, 25.916666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.5, 26.666666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6250000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868087", "away": "Northern Colorado Bears", "home": "Eastern Washington Eagles", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Northern Colorado Bears 22, Eastern Washington Eagles 31", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+6.5 (-105) / -6.5 (-118)", "ml": "+195 / -250", "total": "58.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 27.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/northern-colorado-bears-eastern-washington-eagles-401868087-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868087", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.144548+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.104166666666668, 27.041666666666668 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.104166666666668, 27.041666666666668 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.104166666666668, 27.041666666666668 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 20.25, 28.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 23.166666666666668, 25.833333333333332 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 23.416666666666668, 30.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 27.5, 37.833333333333336 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.62152430144331, 30.74102745341015 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.62152430144331, 30.74102745341015 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.62152430144331, 30.74102745341015 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 30.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 30.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.25, "pa": 28.416666666666668, "margin": -8.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767119", "401760364", "401767120", "401767121", "401767082", "401767122", "401767123", "401767124", "401767109", "401767117", "401767067", "401767125" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": -2.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401867883", "401864506", "401868130", "401868131", "401868114" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -6.75, "event_ids": [ "401767059", "401760363", "401767060", "401767061", "401767062", "401767063", "401767092", "401767065", "401767066", "401767069", "401767067", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 37.833333333333336, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401868084", "401868085", "401867884", "401858459", "401868076", "401868086" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.208333333333336, 25.916666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.5, 26.666666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6250000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.25, "pa": 28.416666666666668, "margin": -8.166666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401767119", "401760364", "401767120", "401767121", "401767082", "401767122", "401767123", "401767124", "401767109", "401767117", "401767067", "401767125" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 23.166666666666668, "pa": 25.833333333333332, "margin": -2.6666666666666643, "event_ids": [ "401868129", "401867883", "401864506", "401868130", "401868131", "401868114" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.416666666666668, "pa": 30.166666666666668, "margin": -6.75, "event_ids": [ "401767059", "401760363", "401767060", "401767061", "401767062", "401767063", "401767092", "401767065", "401767066", "401767069", "401767067", "401767068" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.5, "pa": 37.833333333333336, "margin": -10.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401868084", "401868085", "401867884", "401858459", "401868076", "401868086" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.208333333333336, 25.916666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 30.5, 26.666666666666664 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.6250000000000004, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.479166666666668, 27.166666666666664 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 22.0, 31.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604562", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.784289+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604562", "official_event_id": 6604562, "scores": [ 22, 31 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.784289+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604562", "official_event_id": 6604562, "scores": [ 22, 31 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.784289+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401869943", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401869943", "away": "Coastal Carolina Chanticleers", "home": "Marshall Thundering Herd", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+4 (-108) / -4 (-112)", "ml": "+154 / -185", "total": "58.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 29.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/coastal-carolina-chanticleers-marshall-thundering-herd-401869943-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869943", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.133981+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "324", "side": "away", "player": "Colton Hinton", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.318181818181817, 29.11363636363636 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.833333333333332, 33.916666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 24.8, 25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 30.75, 30.25 ], "current_rates": [ 22.2, 35 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27.5, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "conditional_score": [ 18.433465741286124, 34.653003368915186 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "324", "side": "away", "player": "Colton Hinton", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.322499999999998, 29.365 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.833333333333332, "pa": 33.916666666666664, "margin": -11.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401754616", "401761597", "401761604", "401761611", "401761619", "401761623", "401761629", "401761640", "401761645", "401761650", "401752779", "401761662" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 25, "margin": -0.1999999999999993, "event_ids": [ "401856780", "401868008", "401869940", "401869941", "401869942" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 30.75, "pa": 30.25, "margin": 0.5, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401757228", "401761606", "401757264", "401761615", "401761626", "401761632", "401761640", "401761646", "401761651", "401761656", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 22.2, "pa": 35, "margin": -12.8, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401871045", "401871047", "401868188", "401869962" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 26.541666666666664, 32.33333333333333 ], "current_matchup": [ 29.9, 23.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.10166666666666693, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.322499999999998, 29.365 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 27.0, 21.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604279", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.787915+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604279", "official_event_id": 6604279, "scores": [ 27, 21 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.787915+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604279", "official_event_id": 6604279, "scores": [ 27, 21 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.787915+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892472", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892472", "away": "Utah Mammoth", "home": "Buffalo Sabres", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+235) / +1.5 (-290)", "ml": "-108 / -112", "total": "6.5; O +102 / U -122", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/utah-mammoth-buffalo-sabres-401892472-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892472", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.269548+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.268292682926829, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6, 2.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.5121951219512195, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 3.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 68 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 68 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892472", "away": "Utah Mammoth", "home": "Buffalo Sabres", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Utah Mammoth 4, Buffalo Sabres 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+235) / +1.5 (-290)", "ml": "-108 / -112", "total": "6.5; O +102 / U -122", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/utah-mammoth-buffalo-sabres-401892472-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892472", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.269548+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.104410569105691, 3.2224796747967477 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.268292682926829, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6, 2.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.5121951219512195, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 3.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1344478391434594, 3.3964888999403366 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 68 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 68 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.097555, 3.1890150000000004 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "retrieved": null, "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020074 } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020074 }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892473", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892473", "away": "Detroit Red Wings", "home": "Montreal Canadiens", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-135) / -1.5 (+114)", "ml": "+170 / -205", "total": "6.5; O +102 / U -122", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/detroit-red-wings-montreal-canadiens-401892473-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892473", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.250056+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0295731707317075, 3.4323170731707315 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0295731707317075, 3.4323170731707315 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0295731707317075, 3.4323170731707315 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892476", "away": "Carolina Hurricanes", "home": "Chicago Blackhawks", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Carolina Hurricanes 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+105) / +1.5 (-125)", "ml": "-245 / +200", "total": "6.5; O +114 / U -135", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.5 / 2.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/carolina-hurricanes-chicago-blackhawks-401892476-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892476", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.331442+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.465365853658537, 2.7897560975609754 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.465365853658537, 2.7897560975609754 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.465365853658537, 2.7897560975609754 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.6097560975609757, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6, 2.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.597560975609756, 3.3536585365853657 ], "current_rates": [ 2, 4.2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.657456277823465, 2.5719002247149967 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 2.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.42073, 2.719505 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 5.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "retrieved": null, "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020078 } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020078 }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892477", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892477", "away": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "home": "St. Louis Blues", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-238) / -1.5 (+195)", "ml": "+110 / -130", "total": "5.5; O -130 / U +110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/columbus-blue-jackets-st-louis-blues-401892477-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892477", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.360412+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 3.0853658536585367, 3.0853658536585367 ], "current_rates": [ 3.3333333333333335, 3 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.817073170731707, 3.1463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 2.25, 3.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892477", "away": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "home": "St. Louis Blues", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Columbus Blue Jackets 3, St. Louis Blues 5", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-238) / -1.5 (+195)", "ml": "+110 / -130", "total": "5.5; O -130 / U +110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/columbus-blue-jackets-st-louis-blues-401892477-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892477", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.360412+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0406636620714034, 2.998396076352068 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 3.0853658536585367, 3.0853658536585367 ], "current_rates": [ 3.3333333333333335, 3 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.817073170731707, 3.1463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 2.25, 3.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9777440275954126, 3.0246444065471327 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.04878, 2.93292 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 5.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "retrieved": null, "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020079 } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020079 }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892478", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892478", "away": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "home": "Colorado Avalanche", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-142) / -1.5 (+120)", "ml": "+170 / -205", "total": "6.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 2.5 / 3.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/toronto-maple-leafs-colorado-avalanche-401892478-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892478", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.461220+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.674817073170732, 3.872256097560976 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.674817073170732, 3.872256097560976 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.674817073170732, 3.872256097560976 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.07317, "pa": 3.59756, "official_team_id": 10 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.07317, "pa": 3.59756, "official_team_id": 10 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.07317, "pa": 3.59756, "official_team_id": 10 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 2.5, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.7378, 3.61585 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 6.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "retrieved": null, "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020080 } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020080 }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401898396", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898396", "away": "Atlanta Hawks", "home": "Indiana Pacers", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-118) / -1.5 (-102)", "ml": "-108 / -112", "total": "233.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 119.5 / 114.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/atlanta-hawks-indiana-pacers-401898396-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.431514+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 118.46341463414635, 116.04878048780488 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 112.42682926829268, 120.41463414634147 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 118, 115.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 118, 115.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 118, 116 ], "display_adjusted": [ 118, 116 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.42683, "pa": 120.414635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 119.5, 114 ], "display_adjusted": [ 119.5, 114 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.42683, "pa": 120.414635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 119.5, 114 ], "display_adjusted": [ 119.5, 114 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "adjustedScore": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898396", "away": "Atlanta Hawks", "home": "Indiana Pacers", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Atlanta Hawks 119, Indiana Pacers 117", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-118) / -1.5 (-102)", "ml": "-108 / -112", "total": "233.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 119.5 / 114.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/atlanta-hawks-indiana-pacers-401898396-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.431514+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.9390243902439, 115.73780487804878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 118.46341463414635, 116.04878048780488 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 112.42682926829268, 120.41463414634147 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 118, 115.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 118, 115.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.97422345984468, 115.98645878350496 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 118, 116 ], "display_adjusted": [ 118, 116 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.42683, "pa": 120.414635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 119.5, 114 ], "display_adjusted": [ 119.5, 114 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118.46342, "pa": 116.04878 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.42683, "pa": 120.414635 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 119.5, 114 ], "display_adjusted": [ 119.5, 114 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "adjustedScore": [ 119.43902750000001, 114.237805 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 119.0, 117.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-hawks-119-pacers-117-2?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.958286+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-hawks-119-pacers-117-2?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 119, 117 ], "publication_date": "Oct 10, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. Team names and final scores match exact original event.", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.958286+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-hawks-119-pacers-117-2?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 119, 117 ], "publication_date": "Oct 10, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. Team names and final scores match exact original event.", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.958286+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401906510", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401906510", "away": "Detroit Pistons", "home": "Washington Wizards", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-6.5 (-112) / +6.5 (-108)", "ml": "-218 / +180", "total": "223.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 121.5 / 111.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/detroit-pistons-washington-wizards-401906510-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906510", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.405125+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 117.76829268292683, 109.60975609756098 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 112.90243902439025, 124.8780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 120, 113 ], "display_adjusted": [ 120, 113 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 119.5, 109.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 119.5, 109.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "conditional_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 117.768295, "pa": 109.60976 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.902435, "pa": 124.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "conditional_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 117.768295, "pa": 109.60976 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.902435, "pa": 124.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "adjustedScore": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401906510", "away": "Detroit Pistons", "home": "Washington Wizards", "startTime": "7:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Detroit Pistons 108, Washington Wizards 114", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-6.5 (-112) / +6.5 (-108)", "ml": "-218 / +180", "total": "223.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 121.5 / 111.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/detroit-pistons-washington-wizards-401906510-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906510", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.405125+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.82317073170731, 112.7560975609756 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 117.76829268292683, 109.60975609756098 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 112.90243902439025, 124.8780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 120, 113 ], "display_adjusted": [ 120, 113 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "adjusted_score": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "conditional_score": [ 119.66393220407303, 109.40049909122376 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 119.5, 109.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 119.5, 109.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "conditional_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 117.768295, "pa": 109.60976 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.902435, "pa": 124.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "conditional_score": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 117.768295, "pa": 109.60976 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.902435, "pa": 124.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 121.5, 111.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "adjustedScore": [ 121.3231725, 111.2560975 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 108.0, 114.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-wizards-114-pistons-108?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.847094+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-wizards-114-pistons-108?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 108, 114 ], "publication_date": "Oct 10, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. Team names and final scores match exact original event.", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.847094+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-wizards-114-pistons-108?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 108, 114 ], "publication_date": "Oct 10, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. Team names and final scores match exact original event.", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.847094+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401856712", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401856712", "away": "Georgia Bulldogs", "home": "Alabama Crimson Tide", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+2.5 (-115) / -2.5 (-105)", "ml": "+105 / -125", "total": "51.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 28.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/georgia-bulldogs-alabama-crimson-tide-401856712-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856712", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.468764+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.923076923076923, 15.923076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 51.4, 13.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.23076923076923, 17.384615384615383 ], "current_rates": [ 49.6, 20.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.923076923076923, "pa": 15.923076923076923, "margin": 16, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401752685", "401752705", "401752718", "401752728", "401752731", "401752742", "401752755", "401752762", "401752766", "401752776", "401752786", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 51.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 38, "event_ids": [ "401856658", "401856673", "401856686", "401856700", "401856705" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.23076923076923, "pa": 17.384615384615383, "margin": 13.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401752665", "401752681", "401752696", "401752718", "401752726", "401752734", "401752738", "401752751", "401752759", "401752765", "401752773", "401752784", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 49.6, "pa": 20.8, "margin": 28.8, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401856674", "401856685", "401856696", "401856707" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.135384615384615, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.923076923076923, "pa": 15.923076923076923, "margin": 16, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401752685", "401752705", "401752718", "401752728", "401752731", "401752742", "401752755", "401752762", "401752766", "401752776", "401752786", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 51.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 38, "event_ids": [ "401856658", "401856673", "401856686", "401856700", "401856705" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.23076923076923, "pa": 17.384615384615383, "margin": 13.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401752665", "401752681", "401752696", "401752718", "401752726", "401752734", "401752738", "401752751", "401752759", "401752765", "401752773", "401752784", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 49.6, "pa": 20.8, "margin": 28.8, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401856674", "401856685", "401856696", "401856707" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.135384615384615, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401856712", "away": "Georgia Bulldogs", "home": "Alabama Crimson Tide", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Georgia Bulldogs 20, Alabama Crimson Tide 17", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+2.5 (-115) / -2.5 (-105)", "ml": "+105 / -125", "total": "51.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.5 / 28.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/georgia-bulldogs-alabama-crimson-tide-401856712-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856712", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.468764+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 29.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "isolated_score": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 26.106643356643353, 27.92832167832168 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.923076923076923, 15.923076923076923 ], "current_rates": [ 51.4, 13.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.23076923076923, 17.384615384615383 ], "current_rates": [ 49.6, 20.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 24.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "isolated_score": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 21.026001554847447, 31.948914200491558 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 32 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 32 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.923076923076923, "pa": 15.923076923076923, "margin": 16, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401752685", "401752705", "401752718", "401752728", "401752731", "401752742", "401752755", "401752762", "401752766", "401752776", "401752786", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 51.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 38, "event_ids": [ "401856658", "401856673", "401856686", "401856700", "401856705" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.23076923076923, "pa": 17.384615384615383, "margin": 13.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401752665", "401752681", "401752696", "401752718", "401752726", "401752734", "401752738", "401752751", "401752759", "401752765", "401752773", "401752784", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 49.6, "pa": 20.8, "margin": 28.8, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401856674", "401856685", "401856696", "401856707" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.135384615384615, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "adjusted_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "conditional_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "61", "side": "away", "player": "Chauncey Bowens", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "isolated_score": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.923076923076923, "pa": 15.923076923076923, "margin": 16, "event_ids": [ "401752669", "401752685", "401752705", "401752718", "401752728", "401752731", "401752742", "401752755", "401752762", "401752766", "401752776", "401752786", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 51.4, "pa": 13.4, "margin": 38, "event_ids": [ "401856658", "401856673", "401856686", "401856700", "401856705" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.23076923076923, "pa": 17.384615384615383, "margin": 13.846153846153847, "event_ids": [ "401752665", "401752681", "401752696", "401752718", "401752726", "401752734", "401752738", "401752751", "401752759", "401752765", "401752773", "401752784", "401777351" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 49.6, "pa": 20.8, "margin": 28.8, "event_ids": [ "401856634", "401856674", "401856685", "401856696", "401856707" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.653846153846153, 23.576923076923077 ], "current_matchup": [ 36.1, 31.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 1.135384615384615, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 31.5, 28 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28.5, 28 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 31.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "adjustedScore": [ 28.512307692307694, 27.903076923076924 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 20.0, 17.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640743", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.789917+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640743", "official_event_id": 6640743, "scores": [ 20, 17 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.789917+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6640743", "official_event_id": 6640743, "scores": [ 20, 17 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.789917+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401858258", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858258", "away": "Syracuse Orange", "home": "Virginia Cavaliers", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+11.5 (-110) / -11.5 (-110)", "ml": "+340 / -440", "total": "49.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 14.5 / 35.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/syracuse-orange-virginia-cavaliers-401858258-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858258", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.540786+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 21.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "isolated_score": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 18.942307692307693, 32.27604895104895 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 20.166666666666668, 34.916666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 34.75, 23 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 32.15384615384615, 20.53846153846154 ], "current_rates": [ 33.8, 18 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "conditional_score": [ 13.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.410162725607528, 33.778315163792186 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 13.5, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 34.916666666666664, "margin": -14.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752676", "401754618", "401754532", "401754537", "401754545", "401754555", "401754568", "401754571", "401754575", "401754587", "401754604", "401754608" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 23, "margin": 11.75, "event_ids": [ "401858208", "401858216", "401858225", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 32.15384615384615, "pa": 20.53846153846154, "margin": 11.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401754616", "401754524", "401754619", "401754539", "401754543", "401754554", "401752951", "401754573", "401754576", "401754589", "401754593", "401754613", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 18, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858202", "401858220", "401856802", "401858239", "401858253" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.352564102564102, 33.53525641025641 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.375, 28.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.041538461538461, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -6, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Steve Angeli", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Shavane Anderson Jr.", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] }, { "teamId": "183", "side": "away", "player": "Amari Odom", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 20.166666666666668, "pa": 34.916666666666664, "margin": -14.749999999999996, "event_ids": [ "401752676", "401754618", "401754532", "401754537", "401754545", "401754555", "401754568", "401754571", "401754575", "401754587", "401754604", "401754608" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 34.75, "pa": 23, "margin": 11.75, "event_ids": [ "401858208", "401858216", "401858225", "401858252" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 32.15384615384615, "pa": 20.53846153846154, "margin": 11.615384615384613, "event_ids": [ "401754616", "401754524", "401754619", "401754539", "401754543", "401754554", "401752951", "401754573", "401754576", "401754589", "401754593", "401754613", "401777328" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 33.8, "pa": 18, "margin": 15.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858202", "401858220", "401856802", "401858239", "401858253" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 20.352564102564102, 33.53525641025641 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.375, 28.4 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.041538461538461, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 35.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 14.5, 35.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 20.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "adjustedScore": [ 14.32224358974359, 35.509166666666665 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 25.0, 28.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603995", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.791940+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603995", "official_event_id": 6603995, "scores": [ 25, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.791940+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603995", "official_event_id": 6603995, "scores": [ 25, 28 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.791940+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401858485", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858485", "away": "USC Trojans", "home": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-108) / -1.5 (-112)", "ml": "+102 / -122", "total": "54.5; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.0 / 26.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/usc-trojans-penn-state-nittany-lions-401858485-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858485", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.528353+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 36.5, 22.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 37.333333333333336, 25.5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.75, 21.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32, 16 ] } }, "display_base": [ 27, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 31 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.5, "pa": 22.416666666666668, "margin": 14.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752798", "401752814", "401752832", "401752847", "401752850", "401752868", "401752871", "401752892", "401752896", "401752907", "401752911", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.333333333333336, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 11.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401864494", "401858436", "401858445", "401858457", "401858469", "401858478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 21.416666666666668, "margin": 10.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401752811", "401752835", "401752854", "401752855", "401752866", "401752875", "401752889", "401752893", "401752903", "401752908", "401752920" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32, "pa": 16, "margin": 16, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401858442", "401858456", "401858466", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.041666666666666435, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.5, "pa": 22.416666666666668, "margin": 14.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752798", "401752814", "401752832", "401752847", "401752850", "401752868", "401752871", "401752892", "401752896", "401752907", "401752911", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.333333333333336, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 11.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401864494", "401858436", "401858445", "401858457", "401858469", "401858478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 21.416666666666668, "margin": 10.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401752811", "401752835", "401752854", "401752855", "401752866", "401752875", "401752889", "401752893", "401752903", "401752908", "401752920" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32, "pa": 16, "margin": 16, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401858442", "401858456", "401858466", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.041666666666666435, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858485", "away": "USC Trojans", "home": "Penn State Nittany Lions", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "USC Trojans 31, Penn State Nittany Lions 23", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-108) / -1.5 (-112)", "ml": "+102 / -122", "total": "54.5; O -112 / U -108", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 28.0 / 26.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/usc-trojans-penn-state-nittany-lions-401858485-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858485", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.528353+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.185606060606062, 28.660984848484848 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.185606060606062, 25.660984848484848 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.655013802377066, 33.7886949853496 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.655013802377066, 30.7886949853496 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.5, "pa": 22.416666666666668, "margin": 14.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752798", "401752814", "401752832", "401752847", "401752850", "401752868", "401752871", "401752892", "401752896", "401752907", "401752911", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.333333333333336, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 11.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401864494", "401858436", "401858445", "401858457", "401858469", "401858478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 21.416666666666668, "margin": 10.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401752811", "401752835", "401752854", "401752855", "401752866", "401752875", "401752889", "401752893", "401752903", "401752908", "401752920" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32, "pa": 16, "margin": 16, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401858442", "401858456", "401858466", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.041666666666666435, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Trent Mosley", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Mark Bowman", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "30", "side": "away", "player": "Joint overlapSensitivity", "condition": "Mosley 13/255/4 TD and Bowman 21/204/2 TD are material receiver/receiving-TE roles, both QUESTIONABLE. Joint -6 for distinct receiving opportunities is human assumption with -3 common-passing overlap sensitivity retained. Corey Simms OUT 12/178 is significant rotation loss but main role needs current routes/depth confirmation; do not certify no effect or automatically add third penalty. Roster-verified receivers are redistribution candidates; actual replacement TE routes remain unresolved.", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "joint_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 24.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] }, { "teamId": "213", "side": "home", "player": "Koby Howard", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 36.5, "pa": 22.416666666666668, "margin": 14.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752798", "401752814", "401752832", "401752847", "401752850", "401752868", "401752871", "401752892", "401752896", "401752907", "401752911", "401752919" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 37.333333333333336, "pa": 25.5, "margin": 11.833333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401864494", "401858436", "401858445", "401858457", "401858469", "401858478" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 31.75, "pa": 21.416666666666668, "margin": 10.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752807", "401752811", "401752835", "401752854", "401752855", "401752866", "401752875", "401752889", "401752893", "401752903", "401752908", "401752920" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32, "pa": 16, "margin": 16, "event_ids": [ "401858434", "401858442", "401858456", "401858466", "401858476" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 28.958333333333336, 27.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.666666666666668, 28.75 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.041666666666666435, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 6, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 28, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 28, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 27.770833333333332, 29.458333333333336 ], "adjustedScore": [ 27.770833333333332, 26.458333333333336 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 31.0, 23.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603761", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.794061+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603761", "official_event_id": 6603761, "scores": [ 31, 23 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.794061+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603761", "official_event_id": 6603761, "scores": [ 31, 23 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.794061+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401864516", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401864516", "away": "Air Force Falcons", "home": "Northern Illinois Huskies", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-7 (-115) / +7 (-105)", "ml": "-310 / +250", "total": "46.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 30.5 / 18.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/air-force-falcons-northern-illinois-huskies-401864516-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864516", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.596363+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 29.833333333333332, 30.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 29, 20 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.083333333333332, 24.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 13.75, 36.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 21.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.833333333333332, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401760368", "401760372", "401760378", "401760381", "401760386", "401760392", "401760401", "401760406", "401757174", "401760415", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 29, "pa": 20, "margin": 9, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401864502", "401864509", "401862791" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.083333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -7.25, "event_ids": [ "401762793", "401752826", "401752712", "401760380", "401762873", "401762836", "401762843", "401762845", "401762854", "401762859", "401762864", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 13.75, "pa": 36.25, "margin": -22.5, "event_ids": [ "401858426", "401864503", "401856793", "401864511" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.825, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.833333333333332, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401760368", "401760372", "401760378", "401760381", "401760386", "401760392", "401760401", "401760406", "401757174", "401760415", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 29, "pa": 20, "margin": 9, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401864502", "401864509", "401862791" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.083333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -7.25, "event_ids": [ "401762793", "401752826", "401752712", "401760380", "401762873", "401762836", "401762843", "401762845", "401762854", "401762859", "401762864", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 13.75, "pa": 36.25, "margin": -22.5, "event_ids": [ "401858426", "401864503", "401856793", "401864511" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.825, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "adjustedScore": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401864516", "away": "Air Force Falcons", "home": "Northern Illinois Huskies", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Air Force Falcons 28, Northern Illinois Huskies 7", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-7 (-115) / +7 (-105)", "ml": "-310 / +250", "total": "46.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 30.5 / 18.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/air-force-falcons-northern-illinois-huskies-401864516-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864516", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.596363+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 28.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.549999999999997, 21.724999999999998 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 29.833333333333332, 30.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 29, 20 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 17.083333333333332, 24.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 13.75, 36.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 28.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 21.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 23.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.79383469336182, 25.68716935577364 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 24, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.833333333333332, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401760368", "401760372", "401760378", "401760381", "401760386", "401760392", "401760401", "401760406", "401757174", "401760415", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 29, "pa": 20, "margin": 9, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401864502", "401864509", "401862791" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.083333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -7.25, "event_ids": [ "401762793", "401752826", "401752712", "401760380", "401762873", "401762836", "401762843", "401762845", "401762854", "401762859", "401762864", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 13.75, "pa": 36.25, "margin": -22.5, "event_ids": [ "401858426", "401864503", "401856793", "401864511" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.825, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2005", "side": "away", "player": "Liam Szarka", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.833333333333332, "pa": 30.333333333333332, "margin": -0.5, "event_ids": [ "401760359", "401760368", "401760372", "401760378", "401760381", "401760386", "401760392", "401760401", "401760406", "401757174", "401760415", "401760421" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 29, "pa": 20, "margin": 9, "event_ids": [ "401864496", "401864502", "401864509", "401862791" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 17.083333333333332, "pa": 24.333333333333332, "margin": -7.25, "event_ids": [ "401762793", "401752826", "401752712", "401760380", "401762873", "401762836", "401762843", "401762845", "401762854", "401762859", "401762864", "401762871" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 13.75, "pa": 36.25, "margin": -22.5, "event_ids": [ "401858426", "401864503", "401856793", "401864511" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.083333333333332, 23.708333333333332 ], "current_matchup": [ 32.625, 16.875 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.825, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 18 ], "display_adjusted": [ 30.5, 18 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.67916666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "adjustedScore": [ 30.679166666666667, 17.966666666666665 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 28.0, 7.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604050", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.797076+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604050", "official_event_id": 6604050, "scores": [ 28, 7 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.797076+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604050", "official_event_id": 6604050, "scores": [ 28, 7 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.797076+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401869949", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401869949", "away": "James Madison Dukes", "home": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-7.5 (-105) / +7.5 (-115)", "ml": "-310 / +250", "total": "51.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 38.0 / 13.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/james-madison-dukes-georgia-southern-eagles-401869949-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869949", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.627949+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "isolated_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 37.30769230769231, 15.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 44.8, 13.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 27.833333333333332, 34.166666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 24.8, 23.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 34.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 18.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.30769230769231, "pa": 15.846153846153847, "margin": 21.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401754528", "401757262", "401761614", "401761618", "401761625", "401761631", "401761639", "401761646", "401761652", "401752954", "401761662", "401777352" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.8, "pa": 13.2, "margin": 31.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401869960", "401867929", "401860887", "401869961", "401869962" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 23.8, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.3, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 5.839487179487179, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41, 16 ], "display_adjusted": [ 38, 13 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.30769230769231, "pa": 15.846153846153847, "margin": 21.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401754528", "401757262", "401761614", "401761618", "401761625", "401761631", "401761639", "401761646", "401761652", "401752954", "401761662", "401777352" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.8, "pa": 13.2, "margin": 31.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401869960", "401867929", "401860887", "401869961", "401869962" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 23.8, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.3, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 5.839487179487179, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41, 16 ], "display_adjusted": [ 38, 13 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "adjustedScore": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401869949", "away": "James Madison Dukes", "home": "Georgia Southern Eagles", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "James Madison Dukes 27, Georgia Southern Eagles 24", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-7.5 (-105) / +7.5 (-115)", "ml": "-310 / +250", "total": "51.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 38.0 / 13.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/james-madison-dukes-georgia-southern-eagles-401869949-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869949", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.627949+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "adjusted_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "conditional_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "isolated_score": [ 31.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 21.298951048951047 ], "isolated_score": [ 34.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 31.33391608391608, 18.298951048951047 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 37.30769230769231, 15.846153846153847 ], "current_rates": [ 44.8, 13.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 27.833333333333332, 34.166666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 24.8, 23.8 ] } }, "display_base": [ 34.5, 21.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 31.5, 18.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "adjusted_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "conditional_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "isolated_score": [ 27.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 25.459565964611524 ], "isolated_score": [ 30.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 27.416956097191576, 22.459565964611524 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 30.5, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 27.5, 22.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.30769230769231, "pa": 15.846153846153847, "margin": 21.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401754528", "401757262", "401761614", "401761618", "401761625", "401761631", "401761639", "401761646", "401761652", "401752954", "401761662", "401777352" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.8, "pa": 13.2, "margin": 31.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401869960", "401867929", "401860887", "401869961", "401869962" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 23.8, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.3, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 5.839487179487179, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41, 16 ], "display_adjusted": [ 38, 13 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "adjusted_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "conditional_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, -3 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "256", "side": "away", "player": "Corey Scott", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 37.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] }, { "teamId": "290", "side": "home", "player": "Ashton Hollins", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "isolated_score": [ 40.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 37.30769230769231, "pa": 15.846153846153847, "margin": 21.46153846153846, "event_ids": [ "401761590", "401754528", "401757262", "401761614", "401761618", "401761625", "401761631", "401761639", "401761646", "401761652", "401752954", "401761662", "401777352" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 44.8, "pa": 13.2, "margin": 31.599999999999998, "event_ids": [ "401869960", "401867929", "401860887", "401869961", "401869962" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.833333333333332, "pa": 34.166666666666664, "margin": -6.333333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401760361", "401752814", "401757234", "401761609", "401761614", "401761622", "401761630", "401761636", "401761644", "401761650", "401761657", "401761663" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 24.8, "pa": 23.8, "margin": 1, "event_ids": [ "401868170", "401858219", "401869948", "401856806", "401869942" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 35.73717948717949, 21.83974358974359 ], "current_matchup": [ 34.3, 19 ], "bounded_mismatch": 5.839487179487179, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 41, 16 ], "display_adjusted": [ 38, 13 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 40.85807692307692, 16.080384615384617 ], "adjustedScore": [ 37.85807692307692, 13.080384615384617 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 27.0, 24.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603783", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.798092+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603783", "official_event_id": 6603783, "scores": [ 27, 24 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.798092+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6603783", "official_event_id": 6603783, "scores": [ 27, 24 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.798092+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401869965", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401869965", "away": "Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns", "home": "Louisiana Tech Bulldogs", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+3 (-108) / -3 (-112)", "ml": "+130 / -155", "total": "48.5; O -102 / U -118", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 23.0 / 30.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/louisiana-ragin-cajuns-louisiana-tech-bulldogs-401869965-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401869965", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.690250+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "conditional_score": [ 22.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "309", "side": "away", "player": "Darrell Smith", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ] }, { "teamId": "2348", "side": "home", "player": "Trey Kukuk", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 28.84090909090909 ], "isolated_score": [ 25.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 22.47272727272727, 25.84090909090909 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 27.083333333333332, 30 ], "current_rates": [ 29.2, 19.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 27.666666666666668, 21.333333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 36, 29 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 29 ], "display_adjusted": [ 22.5, 29 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "conditional_score": [ 17.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "309", "side": "away", "player": "Darrell Smith", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ] }, { "teamId": "2348", "side": "home", "player": "Trey Kukuk", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 30.411666666666665 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.00916666666667, 27.411666666666665 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "309", "side": "away", "player": "Darrell Smith", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "isolated_score": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ] }, { "teamId": "2348", "side": "home", "player": "Trey Kukuk", "condition": "if unavailable/materially limited; no probability assigned", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 31.446753974691667 ], "isolated_score": [ 20.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 17.337086592900178, 28.446753974691667 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 20.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 17.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.5365853658536586, 2.817073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 2.75, 2.25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.841463414634146, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 3.25, 2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 2 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 2 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.5365853658536586, 2.817073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 2.75, 2.25 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.841463414634146, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 3.25, 2 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0841286348186348, 2.7538001012828808 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0841286348186348, 2.7538001012828808 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0841286348186348, 2.7538001012828808 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 2 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 2 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.18292, 2.79268 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 5.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "retrieved": null, "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020081 } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020081 }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761847", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761847", "away": "D.C. United", "home": "Inter Miami CF", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-130) / -1.5 (-105)", "ml": "+475 / -240 / draw +400", "total": "3.5; O -145 / U +115", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/d-c-united-inter-miami-cf-761847-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761847", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.725617+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761847", "away": "D.C. United", "home": "Inter Miami CF", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "D.C. United 0, Inter Miami CF 4", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-130) / -1.5 (-105)", "ml": "+475 / -240 / draw +400", "total": "3.5; O -145 / U +115", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/d-c-united-inter-miami-cf-761847-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761847", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.725617+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 0.0, 4.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/miavsdc-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.000610+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MK", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/miavsdc-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MK", "scores": [ 0, 4 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.000610+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MK", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/miavsdc-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MK", "scores": [ 0, 4 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.000610+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761848", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761848", "away": "Columbus Crew", "home": "Orlando City SC", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-125) / -0.5 (-110)", "ml": "+220 / -105 / draw +295", "total": "3.5; O +100 / U -125", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/columbus-crew-orlando-city-sc-761848-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761848", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.750529+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761848", "away": "Columbus Crew", "home": "Orlando City SC", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Columbus Crew 2, Orlando City SC 3", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-125) / -0.5 (-110)", "ml": "+220 / -105 / draw +295", "total": "3.5; O +100 / U -125", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/columbus-crew-orlando-city-sc-761848-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761848", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.750529+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 2.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/orlvsclb-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.224366+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MO", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/orlvsclb-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MO", "scores": [ 2, 3 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.224366+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MO", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/orlvsclb-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MO", "scores": [ 2, 3 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.224366+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761849", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761849", "away": "Real Salt Lake", "home": "Philadelphia Union", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-120) / -1.5 (-115)", "ml": "+550 / -285 / draw +425", "total": "3.5; O -105 / U -120", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/real-salt-lake-philadelphia-union-761849-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761849", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.786387+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761849", "away": "Real Salt Lake", "home": "Philadelphia Union", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Real Salt Lake 1, Philadelphia Union 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-120) / -1.5 (-115)", "ml": "+550 / -285 / draw +425", "total": "3.5; O -105 / U -120", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/real-salt-lake-philadelphia-union-761849-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761849", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.786387+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/phivsrsl-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.156398+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MP", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/phivsrsl-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MP", "scores": [ 1, 2 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.156398+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MP", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/phivsrsl-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MP", "scores": [ 1, 2 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.156398+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761850", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761850", "away": "FC Cincinnati", "home": "Atlanta United FC", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-165) / -0.5 (+115)", "ml": "+165 / +125 / draw +290", "total": "3.5; O -105 / U -120", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/fc-cincinnati-atlanta-united-fc-761850-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761850", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.820711+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761850", "away": "FC Cincinnati", "home": "Atlanta United FC", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "FC Cincinnati 3, Atlanta United FC 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-165) / -0.5 (+115)", "ml": "+165 / +125 / draw +290", "total": "3.5; O -105 / U -120", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/fc-cincinnati-atlanta-united-fc-761850-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761850", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.820711+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/atlvscin-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.188708+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MD", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/atlvscin-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MD", "scores": [ 3, 1 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.188708+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MD", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/atlvscin-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MD", "scores": [ 3, 1 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.188708+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761851", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761851", "away": "Seattle Sounders FC", "home": "New England Revolution", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-120) / -0.5 (-115)", "ml": "+245 / -115 / draw +285", "total": "3.5; O +125 / U -160", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/seattle-sounders-fc-new-england-revolution-761851-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761851", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.873153+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761851", "away": "Seattle Sounders FC", "home": "New England Revolution", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Seattle Sounders FC 3, New England Revolution 0", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-120) / -0.5 (-115)", "ml": "+245 / -115 / draw +285", "total": "3.5; O +125 / U -160", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/seattle-sounders-fc-new-england-revolution-761851-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761851", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.873153+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 0.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/nevssea-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.644142+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MM", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/nevssea-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MM", "scores": [ 3, 0 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.644142+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MM", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/nevssea-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MM", "scores": [ 3, 0 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.644142+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761852", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761852", "away": "FC Dallas", "home": "Charlotte FC", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-150) / -0.5 (+110)", "ml": "+185 / +115 / draw +275", "total": "3.5; O +130 / U -165", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/fc-dallas-charlotte-fc-761852-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761852", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.902284+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761852", "away": "FC Dallas", "home": "Charlotte FC", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "FC Dallas 2, Charlotte FC 3", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-150) / -0.5 (+110)", "ml": "+185 / +115 / draw +275", "total": "3.5; O +130 / U -165", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/fc-dallas-charlotte-fc-761852-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761852", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.902284+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 2.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/cltvsdal-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.320267+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MF", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/cltvsdal-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MF", "scores": [ 2, 3 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.320267+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MF", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/cltvsdal-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MF", "scores": [ 2, 3 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.320267+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761853", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761853", "away": "San Diego FC", "home": "Red Bull New York", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-0.5 (+135) / +0.5 (-185)", "ml": "+140 / +150 / draw +275", "total": "3.5; O -120 / U -110", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/san-diego-fc-red-bull-new-york-761853-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761853", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.922192+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761853", "away": "San Diego FC", "home": "Red Bull New York", "startTime": "7:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "San Diego FC 1, Red Bull New York 4", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-0.5 (+135) / +0.5 (-185)", "ml": "+140 / +150 / draw +275", "total": "3.5; O -120 / U -110", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/san-diego-fc-red-bull-new-york-761853-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761853", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.922192+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 4.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/rbnyvssd-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.356659+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MN", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/rbnyvssd-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MN", "scores": [ 1, 4 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.356659+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MN", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/rbnyvssd-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MN", "scores": [ 1, 4 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.356659+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401856827", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401856827", "away": "Kansas Jayhawks", "home": "Utah Utes", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+15.5 (-110) / -15.5 (-110)", "ml": "+500 / -700", "total": "51.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 16.5 / 37.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/kansas-jayhawks-utah-utes-401856827-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856827", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.940619+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2305", "side": "away", "player": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 22.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "isolated_score": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 19.525, 33.150000000000006 ] } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 28.083333333333332, 26.75 ], "current_rates": [ 36, 17 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 41.083333333333336, 18.666666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 43.25, 10.25 ] } }, "display_base": [ 22.5, 33 ], "display_adjusted": [ 19.5, 33 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "adjusted_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "conditional_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2305", "side": "away", "player": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 18.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "isolated_score": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 15.786882756198345, 37.10409241409907 ] } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 19, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -3, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2305", "side": "away", "player": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.083333333333332, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401756854", "401752689", "401756899", "401756905", "401756915", "401756921", "401756932", "401756940", "401756943", "401756958", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36, "pa": 17, "margin": 19, "event_ids": [ "401856769", "401856678", "401856812", "401856807" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 41.083333333333336, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 22.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401756887", "401756895", "401756901", "401756908", "401756922", "401756924", "401756934", "401756942", "401756949", "401756960", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 43.25, "pa": 10.25, "margin": 33, "event_ids": [ "401856768", "401856670", "401856801", "401856816" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5083333333333346, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "teamId": "2305", "side": "away", "player": "Yasin Willis", "condition": "reported OUT", "own_delta": -3, "kind": "isolated_human_sensitivity", "true_statistical_effect": null, "base_score": [ 19.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "isolated_score": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 16.741666666666667, 37.02916666666667 ] } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.083333333333332, "pa": 26.75, "margin": 1.3333333333333321, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401756854", "401752689", "401756899", "401756905", "401756915", "401756921", "401756932", "401756940", "401756943", "401756958", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 36, "pa": 17, "margin": 19, "event_ids": [ "401856769", "401856678", "401856812", "401856807" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 41.083333333333336, "pa": 18.666666666666668, "margin": 22.416666666666668, "event_ids": [ "401752800", "401756887", "401756895", "401756901", "401756908", "401756922", "401756924", "401756934", "401756942", "401756949", "401756960", "401756964" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 43.25, "pa": 10.25, "margin": 33, "event_ids": [ "401856768", "401856670", "401856801", "401856816" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.375, 33.91666666666667 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.125, 30.125 ], "bounded_mismatch": -3.5083333333333346, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 4, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 19.5, 37 ], "display_adjusted": [ 16.5, 37 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.25, 23.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32, 18 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.75, 31.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 30.4, 35 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.25, "pa": 23.416666666666668, "margin": -0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401752813", "401752840", "401752849", "401752859", "401752864", "401752872", "401752882", "401752888", "401752904", "401752909", "401752918" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32, "pa": 18, "margin": 14, "event_ids": [ "401858422", "401856677", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 31.833333333333332, "margin": -13.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752819", "401752832", "401752848", "401752861", "401752864", "401752874", "401752884", "401752890", "401752897", "401752902", "401752924" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 35, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858435", "401858224", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.151666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.25, "pa": 23.416666666666668, "margin": -0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401752813", "401752840", "401752849", "401752859", "401752864", "401752872", "401752882", "401752888", "401752904", "401752909", "401752918" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32, "pa": 18, "margin": 14, "event_ids": [ "401858422", "401856677", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 31.833333333333332, "margin": -13.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752819", "401752832", "401752848", "401752861", "401752864", "401752874", "401752884", "401752890", "401752897", "401752902", "401752924" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 35, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858435", "401858224", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.151666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401858486", "away": "Minnesota Golden Gophers", "home": "Purdue Boilermakers", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Minnesota Golden Gophers 13, Purdue Boilermakers 41", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-2.5 (-115) / +2.5 (-105)", "ml": "-142 / +120", "total": "50.5; O -108 / U -112", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 33.5 / 21.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/minnesota-golden-gophers-purdue-boilermakers-401858486-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858486", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.973029+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "adjusted_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "conditional_score": [ 29.5, 23.25 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 23.25, 23.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 32, 18 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 18.75, 31.833333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 30.4, 35 ] } }, "display_base": [ 29.5, 23.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 29.5, 23.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.673454577129977, 26.024737101693514 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 25.5, 26 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25.5, 26 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "adjusted_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "conditional_score": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.25, "pa": 23.416666666666668, "margin": -0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401752813", "401752840", "401752849", "401752859", "401752864", "401752872", "401752882", "401752888", "401752904", "401752909", "401752918" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32, "pa": 18, "margin": 14, "event_ids": [ "401858422", "401856677", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 31.833333333333332, "margin": -13.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752819", "401752832", "401752848", "401752861", "401752864", "401752874", "401752884", "401752890", "401752897", "401752902", "401752924" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 35, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858435", "401858224", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.151666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 23.25, "pa": 23.416666666666668, "margin": -0.16666666666666785, "event_ids": [ "401752793", "401752813", "401752840", "401752849", "401752859", "401752864", "401752872", "401752882", "401752888", "401752904", "401752909", "401752918" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32, "pa": 18, "margin": 14, "event_ids": [ "401858422", "401856677", "401858451", "401858470", "401858474" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 18.75, "pa": 31.833333333333332, "margin": -13.083333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401752801", "401752819", "401752832", "401752848", "401752861", "401752864", "401752874", "401752884", "401752890", "401752897", "401752902", "401752924" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 30.4, "pa": 35, "margin": -4.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401858435", "401858224", "401858458", "401858467", "401858472" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.541666666666664, 21.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 33.5, 24.2 ], "bounded_mismatch": 3.151666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 33.5, 21 ], "display_adjusted": [ 33.5, 21 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "adjustedScore": [ 33.6725, 20.99 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.5, 35.166666666666664 ], "current_rates": [ 25, 29.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 14, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 29.571428571428573, 26.428571428571427 ], "current_rates": [ 20.666666666666668, 26.666666666666668 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 29.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 29.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.879029240421524, 34.570119010798834 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 35.166666666666664, "margin": -10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752674", "401767379", "401767305", "401767132", "401767483", "401769869", "401767287", "401767302", "401767282", "401767254", "401767296", "401767247" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25, "pa": 29.4, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401868071", "401868072", "401868133", "401858237" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 29.571428571428573, "pa": 26.428571428571427, "margin": 3.142857142857146, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401767238", "401756894", "401767239", "401767240", "401767241", "401767242", "401767243", "401767244", "401767245", "401767246", "401767247", "401833969", "401836216" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -6, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401856770", "401868050", "401868051", "401868052", "401868053" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.464285714285715, 32.36904761904762 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.833333333333336, 25.03333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.220952380952381, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "adjustedScore": [ 24.427857142857146, 31.422142857142855 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401868054", "away": "Central Arkansas Bears", "home": "Abilene Christian Wildcats", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Central Arkansas Bears 14, Abilene Christian Wildcats 20", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+9.5 (-110) / -9.5 (-112)", "ml": "+265 / -352", "total": "51.5; O -112 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 24.5 / 31.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/central-arkansas-bears-abilene-christian-wildcats-401868054-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868054", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:40.981753+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.887445887445885, 29.582251082251084 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21, 34.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 34.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.5, "pa": 35.166666666666664, "margin": -10.666666666666664, "event_ids": [ "401752674", "401767379", "401767305", "401767132", "401767483", "401769869", "401767287", "401767302", "401767282", "401767254", "401767296", "401767247" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 25, "pa": 29.4, "margin": -4.399999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868070", "401868071", "401868072", "401868133", "401858237" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 14, "pf": 29.571428571428573, "pa": 26.428571428571427, "margin": 3.142857142857146, "event_ids": [ "401762457", "401767238", "401756894", "401767239", "401767240", "401767241", "401767242", "401767243", "401767244", "401767245", "401767246", "401767247", "401833969", "401836216" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 20.666666666666668, "pa": 26.666666666666668, "margin": -6, "event_ids": [ "401868049", "401856770", "401868050", "401868051", "401868052", "401868053" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.464285714285715, 32.36904761904762 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.833333333333336, 25.03333333333333 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.220952380952381, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31, "pa": 18, "margin": 13, "event_ids": [ "401757221", "401767455", "401767426", "401752710", "401767523", "401767492", "401767521", "401767472", "401767464", "401767487", "401767481", "401767520", "401836095" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 1.5999999999999979, "event_ids": [ "401868315", "401868316", "401868150", "401868317", "401868318" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 39.583333333333336, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": 20.750000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767526", "401767432", "401767527", "401767528", "401767523", "401767469", "401767485", "401767478", "401767525", "401767518", "401767495", "401767467" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868245", "401862700", "401868246", "401868247", "401868248" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.916666666666664, 28.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.799999999999997, 28.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1350000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21, 32.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21, 32.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31, "pa": 18, "margin": 13, "event_ids": [ "401757221", "401767455", "401767426", "401752710", "401767523", "401767492", "401767521", "401767472", "401767464", "401767487", "401767481", "401767520", "401836095" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 1.5999999999999979, "event_ids": [ "401868315", "401868316", "401868150", "401868317", "401868318" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 39.583333333333336, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": 20.750000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767526", "401767432", "401767527", "401767528", "401767523", "401767469", "401767485", "401767478", "401767525", "401767518", "401767495", "401767467" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868245", "401862700", "401868246", "401868247", "401868248" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.916666666666664, 28.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.799999999999997, 28.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1350000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31, "pa": 18, "margin": 13, "event_ids": [ "401757221", "401767455", "401767426", "401752710", "401767523", "401767492", "401767521", "401767472", "401767464", "401767487", "401767481", "401767520", "401836095" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 32.4, "pa": 30.8, "margin": 1.5999999999999979, "event_ids": [ "401868315", "401868316", "401868150", "401868317", "401868318" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 39.583333333333336, "pa": 18.833333333333332, "margin": 20.750000000000004, "event_ids": [ "401767526", "401767432", "401767527", "401767528", "401767523", "401767469", "401767485", "401767478", "401767525", "401767518", "401767495", "401767467" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 26.4, "pa": 21.2, "margin": 5.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401868245", "401862700", "401868246", "401868247", "401868248" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.916666666666664, 28.791666666666668 ], "current_matchup": [ 26.799999999999997, 28.6 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.1350000000000005, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 31.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "adjustedScore": [ 24.72333333333333, 31.330833333333334 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 13.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604800", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.811970+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604800", "official_event_id": 6604800, "scores": [ 3, 13 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.811970+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A12%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604800", "official_event_id": 6604800, "scores": [ 3, 13 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.811970+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401898397", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898397", "away": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "home": "Miami Heat", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (-108) / +1.5 (-112)", "ml": "-122 / +102", "total": "234.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 118.5 / 118.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/minnesota-timberwolves-miami-heat-401898397-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898397", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.089704+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 116.76829268292683, 119.2560975609756 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.76829268292683, 119.2560975609756 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.76829268292683, 119.2560975609756 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 118, 114.64634146341463 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 120.86585365853658, 118.53658536585365 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 117, 119.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 117, 119.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.79820681340645, 116.60568244110301 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.79820681340645, 116.60568244110301 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.79820681340645, 116.60568244110301 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 116, 116.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 116, 116.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "conditional_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118, "pa": 114.64634 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 120.86585, "pa": 118.53658 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 118.5, 118 ], "display_adjusted": [ 118.5, 118 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "conditional_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118, "pa": 114.64634 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 120.86585, "pa": 118.53658 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 118.5, 118 ], "display_adjusted": [ 118.5, 118 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "adjustedScore": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898397", "away": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "home": "Miami Heat", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Minnesota Timberwolves 125, Miami Heat 124", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (-108) / +1.5 (-112)", "ml": "-122 / +102", "total": "234.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 118.5 / 118.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/minnesota-timberwolves-miami-heat-401898397-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898397", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.089704+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 116.76829268292683, 119.2560975609756 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.76829268292683, 119.2560975609756 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.76829268292683, 119.2560975609756 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 118, 114.64634146341463 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 120.86585365853658, 118.53658536585365 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 117, 119.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 117, 119.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.79820681340645, 116.60568244110301 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.79820681340645, 116.60568244110301 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.79820681340645, 116.60568244110301 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 116, 116.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 116, 116.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "conditional_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118, "pa": 114.64634 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 120.86585, "pa": 118.53658 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 118.5, 118 ], "display_adjusted": [ 118.5, 118 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "conditional_score": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 118, "pa": 114.64634 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 120.86585, "pa": 118.53658 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 118.5, 118 ], "display_adjusted": [ 118.5, 118 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "adjustedScore": [ 118.26829000000001, 117.75609499999999 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 125.0, 124.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-timberwolves-125-heat-124?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.319248+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-timberwolves-125-heat-124?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 125, 124 ], "publication_date": "Oct 11, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. Team names and final scores match exact original event.", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.319248+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-timberwolves-125-heat-124?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 125, 124 ], "publication_date": "Oct 11, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. Team names and final scores match exact original event.", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.319248+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401898398", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898398", "away": "Philadelphia 76ers", "home": "Boston Celtics", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+5.5 (-118) / -5.5 (-102)", "ml": "+164 / -198", "total": "220.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 111.5 / 115.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/philadelphia-76ers-boston-celtics-401898398-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898398", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.073555+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 110.01829268292683, 116.95731707317074 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.01829268292683, 116.95731707317074 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.01829268292683, 116.95731707317074 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 115.8780487804878, 116.0609756097561 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.85365853658537, 107.15853658536585 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 110, 117 ], "display_adjusted": [ 110, 117 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 107.15907118810475, 115.28559278508186 ], "adjusted_score": [ 107.15907118810475, 115.28559278508186 ], "conditional_score": [ 107.15907118810475, 115.28559278508186 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.87805, "pa": 116.060974 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.85366, "pa": 107.15854 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 115.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 115.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.87805, "pa": 116.060974 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.85366, "pa": 107.15854 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 115.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 115.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "adjustedScore": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898398", "away": "Philadelphia 76ers", "home": "Boston Celtics", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Philadelphia 76ers 106, Boston Celtics 144", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+5.5 (-118) / -5.5 (-102)", "ml": "+164 / -198", "total": "220.5; O -105 / U -115", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 111.5 / 115.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/philadelphia-76ers-boston-celtics-401898398-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898398", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.073555+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 110.01829268292683, 116.95731707317074 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.01829268292683, 116.95731707317074 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.01829268292683, 116.95731707317074 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 115.8780487804878, 116.0609756097561 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.85365853658537, 107.15853658536585 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 110, 117 ], "display_adjusted": [ 110, 117 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 107.15907118810475, 115.28559278508186 ], "adjusted_score": [ 107.15907118810475, 115.28559278508186 ], "conditional_score": [ 107.15907118810475, 115.28559278508186 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.87805, "pa": 116.060974 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.85366, "pa": 107.15854 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 115.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 115.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.87805, "pa": 116.060974 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.85366, "pa": 107.15854 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 115.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 115.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "adjustedScore": [ 111.518295, 115.457317 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 106.0, 144.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-celtics-144-76ers-106?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:31:20.734759+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-celtics-144-76ers-106?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 106, 144 ], "publication_date": "Oct 10, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.993827160493827, 4.580246913580247 ], "current_rates": [ 4.790123456790123, 4.444444444444445 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.9691358024691357, 4.006172839506172 ], "current_rates": [ 4.185185185185185, 4.117283950617284 ] } }, "display_base": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4952, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "4f747cf0558c554793e6382cad43b508c0d29e270654ff4d7742cc2d819c8c0d" }, "display_base": [ 4, 4 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4, 4 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.790123456790123, "pa": 4.444444444444445, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/145/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 1, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.790123456790123, "pa": 4.444444444444445, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/145/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 1, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MLB", "competition": "MLB", "eventId": "401907994", "away": "Chicago White Sox", "home": "Cleveland Guardians", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Chicago White Sox 0, Cleveland Guardians 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-193) / -1.5 (+158)", "ml": "+114 / -137", "total": "7; O -120 / U +100", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 4.5 / 4.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/chicago-white-sox-cleveland-guardians-401907994-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401907994", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.157498+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 4.2828125, 4.408545524691357 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.2828125, 4.408545524691357 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.2828125, 4.408545524691357 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.993827160493827, 4.580246913580247 ], "current_rates": [ 4.790123456790123, 4.444444444444445 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.9691358024691357, 4.006172839506172 ], "current_rates": [ 4.185185185185185, 4.117283950617284 ] } }, "display_base": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.8472225084012273, 3.806032909080149 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4952, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-09T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "4f747cf0558c554793e6382cad43b508c0d29e270654ff4d7742cc2d819c8c0d" }, "display_base": [ 4, 4 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4, 4 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.790123456790123, "pa": 4.444444444444445, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/145/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 1, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.790123456790123, "pa": 4.444444444444445, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/145/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 1, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 4.5, 4.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "accuracy": null, "wilson95": null, "window": "2026-10-09", "skips": 0, "reason": "No matched sport/stage observations in retained prospective cohort." } } }, "baseScore": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "adjustedScore": [ 4.453703703703704, 4.314814814814815 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 0.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-10&endDate=2026-10-11", "retrieved": null, "evidence": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-10&endDate=2026-10-11", "official_event_id": 849831 } } }, "official": { "url": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-10&endDate=2026-10-11", "official_event_id": 849831 }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401916276", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401916276", "away": "Brendan Allen", "home": "Christian Leroy Duncan", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-120 / +100", "total": "3.5; O -120 / U +100", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/brendan-allen-christian-leroy-duncan-401916276-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401916276", "away": "Brendan Allen", "home": "Christian Leroy Duncan", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Brendan Allen won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-120 / +100", "total": "3.5; O -120 / U +100", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/brendan-allen-christian-leroy-duncan-401916276-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "winner": "Brendan Allen", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "winner": "Brendan Allen", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401924510", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401924510", "away": "Loopy God\u00ednez", "home": "Ketlen Souza", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-235 / +194", "total": "2.5; O -300 / U +246", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/loopy-godinez-ketlen-souza-401924510-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401924510", "away": "Loopy God\u00ednez", "home": "Ketlen Souza", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Loopy God\u00ednez won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-235 / +194", "total": "2.5; O -300 / U +246", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/loopy-godinez-ketlen-souza-401924510-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "winner": "Loopy God\u00ednez", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "winner": "Loopy God\u00ednez", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401927415", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927415", "away": "Matheus Camilo", "home": "Jai Herbert", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-190 / +158", "total": "1.5; O -170 / U +142", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/matheus-camilo-jai-herbert-401927415-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927415", "away": "Matheus Camilo", "home": "Jai Herbert", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Jai Herbert won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-190 / +158", "total": "1.5; O -170 / U +142", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/matheus-camilo-jai-herbert-401927415-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "winner": "Jai Herbert", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "winner": "Jai Herbert", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401927416", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927416", "away": "Andre Fili", "home": "Kai Kamaka III", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-150 / +126", "total": "2.5; O -180 / U +150", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/andre-fili-kai-kamaka-iii-401927416-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927416", "away": "Andre Fili", "home": "Kai Kamaka III", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Andre Fili won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-150 / +126", "total": "2.5; O -180 / U +150", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/andre-fili-kai-kamaka-iii-401927416-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "winner": "Andre Fili", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "winner": "Andre Fili", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401927421", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927421", "away": "Malcolm Wellmaker", "home": "Otari Tanzilovi", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-205 / +170", "total": "2.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/malcolm-wellmaker-otari-tanzilovi-401927421-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "MMA", "competition": "UFC", "eventId": "401927421", "away": "Malcolm Wellmaker", "home": "Otari Tanzilovi", "startTime": "8:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Otari Tanzilovi won", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "Not applicable", "ml": "-205 / +170", "total": "2.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/malcolm-wellmaker-otari-tanzilovi-401927421-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/ufc/fight-night/", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10 10:53:05 UTC", "marketConf": { "provider": "BetUS" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered UFC engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": null, "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "winner": "Otari Tanzilovi", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://www.ufc.com/news/ufc-fight-night-allen-vs-duncan-results", "winner": "Otari Tanzilovi", "result": "win", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:58.318785+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401898399", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898399", "away": "Sacramento Kings", "home": "Golden State Warriors", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+4.5 (-115) / -4.5 (-105)", "ml": "+170 / -205", "total": "229.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 113.0 / 118.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/sacramento-kings-golden-state-warriors-401898399-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.267711+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 111, 121 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.60975609756098, 115.17073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 119.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 119.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 110.5, 117.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 110.5, 117.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 111, "pa": 121 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113, 118 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113, 118 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 111, "pa": 121 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113, 118 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113, 118 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "adjustedScore": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898399", "away": "Sacramento Kings", "home": "Golden State Warriors", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Sacramento Kings 106, Golden State Warriors 111", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+4.5 (-115) / -4.5 (-105)", "ml": "+170 / -205", "total": "229.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 113.0 / 118.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/sacramento-kings-golden-state-warriors-401898399-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.267711+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "conditional_score": [ 111.58536585365854, 119.3048780487805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 111, 121 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.60975609756098, 115.17073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 111.5, 119.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 111.5, 119.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 110.48723717784918, 117.41503362152974 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.48723717784918, 117.41503362152974 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.48723717784918, 117.41503362152974 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 110.5, 117.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 110.5, 117.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 111, "pa": 121 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113, 118 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113, 118 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 111, "pa": 121 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 113, 118 ], "display_adjusted": [ 113, 118 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "adjustedScore": [ 113.085365, 117.80488 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 106.0, 111.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-warriors-111-kings-106?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.209572+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-warriors-111-kings-106?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 106, 111 ], "publication_date": "Oct 11, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. Team names and final scores match exact original event.", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.209572+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-warriors-111-kings-106?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 106, 111 ], "publication_date": "Oct 11, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. Team names and final scores match exact original event.", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.209572+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761854", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761854", "away": "Houston Dynamo FC", "home": "Minnesota United FC", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-140) / -0.5 (+100)", "ml": "+230 / +105 / draw +250", "total": "2.5; O -140 / U +110", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/houston-dynamo-fc-minnesota-united-fc-761854-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761854", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.290582+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761854", "away": "Houston Dynamo FC", "home": "Minnesota United FC", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Houston Dynamo FC 2, Minnesota United FC 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-140) / -0.5 (+100)", "ml": "+230 / +105 / draw +250", "total": "2.5; O -140 / U +110", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/houston-dynamo-fc-minnesota-united-fc-761854-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761854", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.290582+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 2.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/minvshou-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.415865+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009ML", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/minvshou-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009ML", "scores": [ 2, 2 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.415865+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009ML", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/minvshou-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009ML", "scores": [ 2, 2 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.415865+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761855", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761855", "away": "Portland Timbers", "home": "Sporting Kansas City", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-175) / -0.5 (+125)", "ml": "+150 / +135 / draw +300", "total": "3.5; O -120 / U -110", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/portland-timbers-sporting-kansas-city-761855-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761855", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.337117+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761855", "away": "Portland Timbers", "home": "Sporting Kansas City", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Portland Timbers 3, Sporting Kansas City 3", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-175) / -0.5 (+125)", "ml": "+150 / +135 / draw +300", "total": "3.5; O -120 / U -110", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/portland-timbers-sporting-kansas-city-761855-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761855", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.337117+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/skcvspor-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.500296+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MI", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/skcvspor-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MI", "scores": [ 3, 3 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.500296+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MI", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/skcvspor-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MI", "scores": [ 3, 3 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.500296+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761856", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761856", "away": "Nashville SC", "home": "Austin FC", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-0.5 (-115) / +0.5 (-120)", "ml": "-110 / +260 / draw +260", "total": "2.5; O -140 / U +110", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/nashville-sc-austin-fc-761856-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761856", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.383932+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761856", "away": "Nashville SC", "home": "Austin FC", "startTime": "8:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Nashville SC 4, Austin FC 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-0.5 (-115) / +0.5 (-120)", "ml": "-110 / +260 / draw +260", "total": "2.5; O -140 / U +110", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/nashville-sc-austin-fc-761856-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761856", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.383932+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/atxvsnsh-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.532639+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009ME", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/atxvsnsh-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009ME", "scores": [ 4, 1 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.532639+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009ME", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/atxvsnsh-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009ME", "scores": [ 4, 1 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.532639+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761857", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761857", "away": "San Jose Earthquakes", "home": "Colorado Rapids", "startTime": "9:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-115) / -0.5 (-120)", "ml": "+255 / -115 / draw +270", "total": "2.5; O -170 / U +130", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/san-jose-earthquakes-colorado-rapids-761857-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761857", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.377880+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761857", "away": "San Jose Earthquakes", "home": "Colorado Rapids", "startTime": "9:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "San Jose Earthquakes 1, Colorado Rapids 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-115) / -0.5 (-120)", "ml": "+255 / -115 / draw +270", "total": "2.5; O -170 / U +130", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/san-jose-earthquakes-colorado-rapids-761857-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761857", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.377880+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/colvssj-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.641068+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MH", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/colvssj-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MH", "scores": [ 1, 1 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.641068+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MH", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/colvssj-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MH", "scores": [ 1, 1 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.641068+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892480", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892480", "away": "Anaheim Ducks", "home": "Calgary Flames", "startTime": "10:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+195) / +1.5 (-238)", "ml": "-125 / +105", "total": "6.5; O -102 / U -118", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/anaheim-ducks-calgary-flames-401892480-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892480", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.448440+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.3740853658536585, 2.994817073170732 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3740853658536585, 2.994817073170732 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.3740853658536585, 2.994817073170732 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.3292682926829267, 3.5121951219512195 ], "current_rates": [ 3.5, 2.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.5853658536585367, 3.158536585365854 ], "current_rates": [ 1.5, 5.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.269948448440952, 3.0091924241938193 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.269948448440952, 3.0091924241938193 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.269948448440952, 3.0091924241938193 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892480", "away": "Anaheim Ducks", "home": "Calgary Flames", "startTime": "10:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-1.5 (+195) / +1.5 (-238)", "ml": "-125 / +105", "total": "6.5; O -102 / U -118", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/anaheim-ducks-calgary-flames-401892480-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892480", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.448440+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.3740853658536585, 2.994817073170732 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3740853658536585, 2.994817073170732 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.3740853658536585, 2.994817073170732 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.3292682926829267, 3.5121951219512195 ], "current_rates": [ 3.5, 2.75 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.5853658536585367, 3.158536585365854 ], "current_rates": [ 1.5, 5.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.269948448440952, 3.0091924241938193 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.269948448440952, 3.0091924241938193 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.269948448440952, 3.0091924241938193 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2851, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "aa198c645e4eb30b9acb3a72e166f3c2731a476a9a7f50cb3ecbea68bcfb7a79" }, "display_base": [ 3.5, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3.5, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.4155176701077632, "mean_margin_error": 2.544051962021216, "mean_total_error": 1.7503155709655, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjustedScore": [ 3.176825, 3.0243849999999997 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 4.0, 2.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "retrieved": null, "evidence": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020082 } } }, "official": { "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-10", "official_event_id": 2026020082 }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401892481", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892481", "away": "Los Angeles Kings", "home": "Vegas Golden Knights", "startTime": "10:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-198) / -1.5 (+164)", "ml": "+136 / -162", "total": "6.5; O +114 / U -135", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/los-angeles-kings-vegas-golden-knights-401892481-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892481", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.429517+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 2.7439024390243905, 3.0121951219512195 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.231707317073171, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 4.2, 2.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NHL", "competition": "NHL", "eventId": "401892481", "away": "Los Angeles Kings", "home": "Vegas Golden Knights", "startTime": "10:00 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Los Angeles Kings 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+1.5 (-198) / -1.5 (+164)", "ml": "+136 / -162", "total": "6.5; O +114 / U -135", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 3.0 / 3.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/los-angeles-kings-vegas-golden-knights-401892481-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892481", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.429517+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.768165429480382, 3.448419936373277 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 2.7439024390243905, 3.0121951219512195 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 5 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.231707317073171, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 4.2, 2.6 ] } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3712053227128123, "mean_margin_error": 2.538770546129374, "mean_total_error": 1.7309467889392334, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6614273050964057, 3.3791489611893226 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 3, 3 ], "display_adjusted": [ 3, 3 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 2, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.3064, "mean_margin_error": 2.52134, "mean_total_error": 1.6890200000000002, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "adjustedScore": [ 2.8170650000000004, 3.06097 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "current_rates": [ 17.6, 24.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 24.666666666666668, 23 ], "current_rates": [ 33.25, 31.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 18.5, 34 ], "display_adjusted": [ 18.5, 34 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.5, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 5, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401756849", "401757230", "401760370", "401760374", "401760378", "401760389", "401760394", "401760403", "401760408", "401760418", "401760424" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 24.8, "margin": -7.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401864497", "401864578", "401864510", "401864513" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 23, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401756850", "401752688", "401756889", "401756896", "401756902", "401756922", "401756923", "401756929", "401756939", "401756948", "401756956", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 31.75, "margin": 1.5, "event_ids": [ "401856774", "401856683", "401856812", "401856817" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5366666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.675833333333333, 28.590833333333332 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401856808", "away": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors", "home": "Arizona State Sun Devils", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 12, Arizona State Sun Devils 30", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+21 (-112) / -21 (-108)", "ml": "+900 / -1600", "total": "50.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 24.5 / 28.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/hawai-i-rainbow-warriors-arizona-state-sun-devils-401856808-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856808", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.481002+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.272727272727273, 26.845454545454544 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.5, 23.5 ], "current_rates": [ 17.6, 24.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 24.666666666666668, 23 ], "current_rates": [ 33.25, 31.75 ] } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 27 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 27 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.5, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 5, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401756849", "401757230", "401760370", "401760374", "401760378", "401760389", "401760394", "401760403", "401760408", "401760418", "401760424" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 24.8, "margin": -7.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401864497", "401864578", "401864510", "401864513" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 23, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401756850", "401752688", "401756889", "401756896", "401756902", "401756922", "401756923", "401756929", "401756939", "401756948", "401756956", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 31.75, "margin": 1.5, "event_ids": [ "401856774", "401856683", "401856812", "401856817" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5366666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 28.5, "pa": 23.5, "margin": 5, "event_ids": [ "401754516", "401756849", "401757230", "401760370", "401760374", "401760378", "401760389", "401760394", "401760403", "401760408", "401760418", "401760424" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 17.6, "pa": 24.8, "margin": -7.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401858201", "401864497", "401864578", "401864510", "401864513" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.666666666666668, "pa": 23, "margin": 1.6666666666666679, "event_ids": [ "401756850", "401752688", "401756889", "401756896", "401756902", "401756922", "401756923", "401756929", "401756939", "401756948", "401756956", "401756961" ] }, "2026": { "games": 4, "pf": 33.25, "pa": 31.75, "margin": 1.5, "event_ids": [ "401856774", "401856683", "401856812", "401856817" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.75, 24.083333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.675, 29.025 ], "bounded_mismatch": -0.5366666666666667, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 24.5, 28.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 12.0, 30.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604209", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.813998+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604209", "official_event_id": 6604209, "scores": [ 12, 30 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.813998+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604209", "official_event_id": 6604209, "scores": [ 12, 30 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.813998+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401860901", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401860901", "away": "Boise State Broncos", "home": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-7 (-110) / +7 (-110)", "ml": "-258 / +210", "total": "48.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 26.0 / 25.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/boise-state-broncos-fresno-state-bulldogs-401860901-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860901", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.511438+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.384615384615383, 23 ], "current_rates": [ 34.4, 20.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.416666666666668, 20.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 27.8, 16.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "conditional_score": [ 21.503833420929837, 26.66122997728033 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. 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Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.384615384615383, "pa": 23, "margin": 8.384615384615383, "event_ids": [ "401762522", "401760363", "401760372", "401760379", "401757165", "401760387", "401760393", "401760397", "401760402", "401760410", "401760416", "401760422", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.4, "pa": 20.6, "margin": 13.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", "401860885", "401860897", "401860898" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 6.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401760361", "401752937", "401760369", "401760374", "401760383", "401760388", "401760399", "401760402", "401760412", "401760417", "401760423" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 16.4, "margin": 11.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858436", "401860883", "401860888", "401860891", "401860921" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4451282051282043, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.384615384615383, "pa": 23, "margin": 8.384615384615383, "event_ids": [ "401762522", "401760363", "401760372", "401760379", "401757165", "401760387", "401760393", "401760397", "401760402", "401760410", "401760416", "401760422", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.4, "pa": 20.6, "margin": 13.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", "401860885", "401860897", "401860898" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 6.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401760361", "401752937", "401760369", "401760374", "401760383", "401760388", "401760399", "401760402", "401760412", "401760417", "401760423" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 16.4, "margin": 11.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858436", "401860883", "401860888", "401860891", "401860921" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4451282051282043, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "adjustedScore": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NCAA-FB", "competition": "NCAAF", "eventId": "401860901", "away": "Boise State Broncos", "home": "Fresno State Bulldogs", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Boise State Broncos 38, Fresno State Bulldogs 31", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-7 (-110) / +7 (-110)", "ml": "-258 / +210", "total": "48.5; O -110 / U -110", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 26.0 / 25.5; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/boise-state-broncos-fresno-state-bulldogs-401860901-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860901", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.511438+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.83216783216783, 25.227272727272727 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.384615384615383, 23 ], "current_rates": [ 34.4, 20.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 26.416666666666668, 20.083333333333332 ], "current_rates": [ 27.8, 16.4 ] } }, "display_base": [ 25, 25 ], "display_adjusted": [ 25, 25 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 4, "accuracy": 0.5714285714285714, "wilson95": [ 0.2504583645276572, 0.8417801447485302 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.245754245754245, "mean_margin_error": 13.213830613830615, "mean_total_error": 13.69280719280719, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2866, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3a3eae260d1b219539528b854b614069a8a1f4bfa0a2f6e2963b24f1b14bdd04" }, "display_base": [ 21.5, 26.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 21.5, 26.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.033229834496652, "mean_margin_error": 15.778186630168493, "mean_total_error": 14.684963421718473, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. 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Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.384615384615383, "pa": 23, "margin": 8.384615384615383, "event_ids": [ "401762522", "401760363", "401760372", "401760379", "401757165", "401760387", "401760393", "401760397", "401760402", "401760410", "401760416", "401760422", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.4, "pa": 20.6, "margin": 13.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", "401860885", "401860897", "401860898" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 6.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401760361", "401752937", "401760369", "401760374", "401760383", "401760388", "401760399", "401760402", "401760412", "401760417", "401760423" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 16.4, "margin": 11.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858436", "401860883", "401860888", "401860891", "401860921" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4451282051282043, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "adjusted_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "conditional_score": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 31.384615384615383, "pa": 23, "margin": 8.384615384615383, "event_ids": [ "401762522", "401760363", "401760372", "401760379", "401757165", "401760387", "401760393", "401760397", "401760402", "401760410", "401760416", "401760422", "401777326" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 34.4, "pa": 20.6, "margin": 13.799999999999997, "event_ids": [ "401858433", "401860881", "401860885", "401860897", "401860898" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 26.416666666666668, "pa": 20.083333333333332, "margin": 6.333333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401756847", "401760361", "401752937", "401760369", "401760374", "401760383", "401760388", "401760399", "401760402", "401760412", "401760417", "401760423" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 27.8, "pa": 16.4, "margin": 11.400000000000002, "event_ids": [ "401858436", "401860883", "401860888", "401860891", "401860921" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 25.733974358974358, 24.708333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 25.4, 24.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.4451282051282043, "class_adjustment": [ 0, 0 ], "home_venue": 1.5, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "cap_pass": true, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0, "non_DI_sample_limitation": false } }, "display_base": [ 26, 25.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 26, 25.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 7, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 0.42857142857142855, "wilson95": [ 0.15821985525146975, 0.7495416354723428 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 10.578983516483516, "mean_margin_error": 15.164945054945054, "mean_total_error": 13.682967032967033, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "adjustedScore": [ 26.01211538461538, 25.509038461538466 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 38.0, 31.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604289", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.817569+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604289", "official_event_id": 6604289, "scores": [ 38, 31 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.817569+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A6%7D", "game_url": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6604289", "official_event_id": 6604289, "scores": [ 38, 31 ], "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:28:57.817569+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "401898720", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898720", "away": "San Antonio Spurs", "home": "Phoenix Suns", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-6.5 (-108) / +6.5 (-112)", "ml": "-218 / +180", "total": "219.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 115.5 / 112.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/san-antonio-spurs-phoenix-suns-401898720-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898720", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.544679+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 83, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 119.74698795180723, 111.67469879518072 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 112.58536585365853, 111.1219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 114, 113.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 114, 113.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 114.5, 111 ], "display_adjusted": [ 114.5, 111 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.82927, "pa": 111.52439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.585365, "pa": 111.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 115.5, 112 ], "display_adjusted": [ 115.5, 112 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.82927, "pa": 111.52439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.585365, "pa": 111.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 115.5, 112 ], "display_adjusted": [ 115.5, 112 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "adjustedScore": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "NBA", "competition": "NBA", "eventId": "401898720", "away": "San Antonio Spurs", "home": "Phoenix Suns", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "San Antonio Spurs 98, Phoenix Suns 102", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "-6.5 (-108) / +6.5 (-112)", "ml": "-218 / +180", "total": "219.5; O -115 / U -105", "workingScore": "OFF adjusted 115.5 / 112.0; all four in full report", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/san-antonio-spurs-phoenix-suns-401898720-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898720", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.544679+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "adjusted_score": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "conditional_score": [ 113.93446958565971, 113.63003232441963 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 83, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 119.74698795180723, 111.67469879518072 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 112.58536585365853, 111.1219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ] } }, "display_base": [ 114, 113.5 ], "display_adjusted": [ 114, 113.5 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682926829272, "mean_margin_error": 7.402439024390247, "mean_total_error": 32.585365853658544, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.51582348408283, 110.9463571299281 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2796, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "3f1b565c6ba1530e5aa29a16d96faea0b0c0c032c2ee7aa8dbb934dfff6a59a5" }, "display_base": [ 114.5, 111 ], "display_adjusted": [ 114.5, 111 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.78937323949866, "mean_margin_error": 5.9174676158727095, "mean_total_error": 33.57874647899732, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-on-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.82927, "pa": 111.52439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.585365, "pa": 111.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 115.5, 112 ], "display_adjusted": [ 115.5, 112 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-off-existing-oct7", "base_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "applied_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered baseline retained; no supported empirical player-score adjustment applied. Unknown true effect is not zero.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.82927, "pa": 111.52439 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.585365, "pa": 111.12195 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "new_season_influence": 0, "cap_pass": true, "basis": "Complete regular-season sample; postseason/preseason current outcomes not substituted." } }, "display_base": [ 115.5, 112 ], "display_adjusted": [ 115.5, 112 ], "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 1, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0, "wilson95": [ 0, 0.7934506856227626 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-09", "mean_team_score_mae": 16.292682500000005, "mean_margin_error": 4.402444999999986, "mean_total_error": 32.585365000000024, "limitation": "One-day sample; not event-specific probability or sufficient activation evidence. Three engines/four configurations; ON/OFF duplicate means." } } }, "baseScore": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "adjustedScore": [ 115.47560999999999, 112.0548775 ], "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 98.0, 102.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-suns-102-spurs-98?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.515653+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-suns-102-spurs-98?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 98, 102 ], "publication_date": "Oct 11, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. Team names and final scores match exact original event.", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.515653+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://cdn-uat.nba.com/watch/video/game-recap-suns-102-spurs-98?plsrc=nba&collection=2026-27-game-recaps", "scores": [ 98, 102 ], "publication_date": "Oct 11, 2026", "publication_date_note": "Late Oct10 ET games publish Oct11 UTC. Team names and final scores match exact original event.", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:31:00.515653+00:00" }, "applied": false }, { "eventId": "761858", "before": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761858", "away": "Vancouver Whitecaps", "home": "LAFC", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "pending", "final": "Awaiting official final", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-180) / -0.5 (+130)", "ml": "+165 / +135 / draw +255", "total": "2.5; O -170 / U +135", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/vancouver-whitecaps-lafc-761858-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761858", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.691927+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero." }, "proposed": { "date": "2026-10-10", "sport": "Soccer", "competition": "MLS", "eventId": "761858", "away": "Vancouver Whitecaps", "home": "LAFC", "startTime": "10:30 PM ET", "pick": "PASS / Stay Away", "confidence": null, "confidenceMeaning": "Not calibrated; no stake assigned", "category": "Stay Away", "tier": "Stay Away", "status": "no-grade", "final": "Vancouver Whitecaps 1, LAFC 1", "units": 0, "stake": null, "cashProfit": null, "spread": "+0.5 (-180) / -0.5 (+130)", "ml": "+165 / +135 / draw +255", "total": "2.5; O -170 / U +135", "workingScore": "No registered engine", "story": "/stories/2026/10/10/vancouver-whitecaps-lafc-761858-october-10-2026.html", "marketSource": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/usa.1/summary?event=761858", "marketRetrieved": "2026-10-10T10:52:41.691927+00:00", "marketConf": { "provider": "DraftKings" }, "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "Classic", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "Primary", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "reason": "No registered MLS engine; team-score methods are not transferred to this sport.", "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "scenarios": [] } }, "baseScore": null, "adjustedScore": null, "selectedMarketKind": null, "odds": null, "forecastFrozen": "2026-10-10T10:25:48.672898+00:00", "notes": "All four frozen configurations retained; only named OFF selections are published wagers. Unknown effects are not zero.", "actual": [ 1.0, 1.0 ], "wagerGrade": "NO GRADE", "result": "NO GRADE", "resultSource": { "url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/lafcvsvan-10-10-2026/", "retrieved": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.641068+00:00", "evidence": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MJ", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/lafcvsvan-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MJ", "scores": [ 1, 1 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.641068+00:00" } } }, "official": { "url": "https://stats-api.mlssoccer.com/matches/MLS-MAT-0009MJ", "game_url": "https://www.mlssoccer.com/competitions/mls-regular-season/2026/matches/lafcvsvan-10-10-2026/", "official_event_id": "MLS-MAT-0009MJ", "scores": [ 1, 1 ], "official_status": "finalWhistle", "verified_utc": "2026-10-11T11:34:15.641068+00:00" }, "applied": false } ], "summary": { "events": 142, "wins": 1, "losses": 1, "no_grade": 140 }, "preservation": "Original Oct10 site/ZIP unchanged; original selection, line and freeze preserved." }