October 13 • Four-model Sports comparison

Sport	Matchup / Eastern start	Classic	Primary	Tighten Up Conservative ON	Tighten Up Conservative OFF	Adjusted winner agreement	Home spread	Total
NHL	New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings 6:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Detroit Red Wings	-1.5	6.50
NHL	Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets 6:15 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Columbus Blue Jackets	-1.5	6.50
NHL	Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens 6:30 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.5 / 3.5 Adj 3.5 / 3.5	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	No agreement	-1.5	6.50
NHL	Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes 6:45 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Carolina Hurricanes	-1.5	6.50
NCAAF	Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 7:00 PM ET	27.0 / 26.5 Adj 24.0 / 26.5	24.0 / 29.5 Adj 21.0 / 29.5	28.5 / 26.0 Adj 25.5 / 26.0	28.5 / 26.0 Adj 25.5 / 26.0	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	+1.5	47.50
UFC	Ilias Bulaid at Erick Visconde 7:00 PM ET · card segment	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	No agreement	OFF / unavailable	2.50
NHL	Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers 7:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	No agreement	-1.5	5.50
NBA	Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic 7:00 PM ET	116.0 / 117.0 Adj 116.0 / 117.0	114.0 / 113.5 Adj 114.0 / 113.5	117.5 / 115.5 Adj 117.5 / 115.5	117.5 / 115.5 Adj 117.5 / 115.5	No agreement	+1.5	229.50
NBA	New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors 7:00 PM ET	112.5 / 114.0 Adj 112.5 / 114.0	112.5 / 110.0 Adj 112.5 / 110.0	114.0 / 112.5 Adj 114.0 / 112.5	114.0 / 112.5 Adj 114.0 / 112.5	No agreement	-10.5	218.50
UFC	Aline Pereira at Smilla Sundell 7:00 PM ET · card segment	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	No agreement	OFF / unavailable	2.50
UFC	Will Rentz at Luis Francischinelli 7:00 PM ET · card segment	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	No agreement	OFF / unavailable	1.50
UFC	Davi Cabral at Douglas da Lapa 7:00 PM ET · card segment	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	No agreement	OFF / unavailable	1.50
UFC	Jason Asher at Greg Foster 7:00 PM ET · card segment	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	No agreement	OFF / unavailable	1.50
NHL	Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers 7:15 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	Tampa Bay Lightning	+1.5	5.50
NHL	St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators 7:30 PM ET	2.5 / 3.5 Adj 2.5 / 3.5	2.5 / 3.0 Adj 2.5 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators	-1.5	5.50
NHL	Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders 7:45 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	2.5 / 3.5 Adj 2.5 / 3.5	2.5 / 3.5 Adj 2.5 / 3.5	2.5 / 3.5 Adj 2.5 / 3.5	New York Islanders	-1.5	6.50
NCAAF	Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks 8:00 PM ET	23.5 / 25.0 Adj 23.5 / 25.0	19.5 / 30.0 Adj 19.5 / 30.0	24.0 / 25.5 Adj 24.0 / 25.5	24.0 / 25.5 Adj 24.0 / 25.5	Jacksonville State Gamecocks	-3	43.50
NHL	Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks 8:00 PM ET	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	Pittsburgh Penguins	+1.5	6.50
MLB	Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays 8:00 PM ET	4.0 / 4.5 Adj 4.0 / 4.5	3.5 / 3.5 Adj 3.5 / 3.5	4.0 / 4.5 Adj 4.0 / 4.5	4.0 / 4.5 Adj 4.0 / 4.5	Tampa Bay Rays	-1.5	7.00
NBA	Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder 8:00 PM ET	108.5 / 121.0 Adj 108.5 / 121.0	108.5 / 120.5 Adj 108.5 / 120.5	110.0 / 119.5 Adj 110.0 / 119.5	110.0 / 119.5 Adj 110.0 / 119.5	Oklahoma City Thunder	-6.5	228.50
NHL	Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets 8:15 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild	-1.5	6.50
NHL	Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars 8:30 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Colorado Avalanche	+1.5	5.50
NHL	Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators 8:45 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Vegas Golden Knights	+1.5	6.50
NHL	Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth 9:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	Utah Mammoth	-1.5	6.50
NHL	Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks 9:45 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Anaheim Ducks	-1.5	6.50
NBA	Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers 10:00 PM ET	114.5 / 116.0 Adj 114.5 / 116.0	112.5 / 113.0 Adj 112.5 / 113.0	114.5 / 116.0 Adj 114.5 / 116.0	114.5 / 116.0 Adj 114.5 / 116.0	Los Angeles Lakers	-2.5	227.50
NBA	Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings 10:00 PM ET	116.5 / 115.0 Adj 116.5 / 115.0	115.5 / 112.0 Adj 115.5 / 112.0	118.0 / 113.5 Adj 118.0 / 113.5	118.0 / 113.5 Adj 118.0 / 113.5	Portland Trail Blazers	+3.5	227.50
NHL	Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings 10:30 PM ET	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Edmonton Oilers	+1.5	6.50
NHL	Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks 11:00 PM ET	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	3.5 / 3.0 Adj 3.5 / 3.0	Boston Bruins	-1.5	6.50

Event	Home line	Total	winner	spread	total	winner + spread	winner + total	spread + total	winner + spread + total
New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens	-1.5	6.50	—	Yes	—	—	—	—	—
Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	+1.5	47.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Ilias Bulaid at Erick Visconde	OFF / unavailable	2.50	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers	-1.5	5.50	—	Yes	Yes	—	—	Yes	—
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic	+1.5	229.50	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors	-10.5	218.50	—	Yes	Yes	—	—	Yes	—
Aline Pereira at Smilla Sundell	OFF / unavailable	2.50	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Will Rentz at Luis Francischinelli	OFF / unavailable	1.50	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Davi Cabral at Douglas da Lapa	OFF / unavailable	1.50	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Jason Asher at Greg Foster	OFF / unavailable	1.50	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers	+1.5	5.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators	-1.5	5.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks	-3	43.50	Yes	—	Yes	—	Yes	—	—
Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks	+1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	—	Yes	—	—	—
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays	-1.5	7.00	Yes	Yes	—	Yes	—	—	—
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder	-6.5	228.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars	+1.5	5.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators	+1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	—	Yes	—	—	—
Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers	-2.5	227.50	Yes	Yes	—	Yes	—	—	—
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings	+3.5	227.50	Yes	—	Yes	—	Yes	—	—
Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings	+1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

NHL · New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings · 6:00 PM ET

Away: New Jersey Devils · Home: Detroit Red Wings · Little Caesars Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Detroit Red Wings Home margin 0.27 Total 5.88	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.23 Total: LEAN Difference -0.62	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Detroit Red Wings Home margin 0.19 Total 5.84	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.31 Total: LEAN Difference -0.66	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Detroit Red Wings Home margin 0.07 Total 5.93	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.43 Total: LEAN Difference -0.57	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Detroit Red Wings Home margin 0.07 Total 5.93	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.43 Total: LEAN Difference -0.57	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-105 / -115	+1.5 (-285) / -1.5 (+230)	6.50 — O +110 / U -130	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.156562+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

NJD: Brown still working back with limited practice, Kovacevic possible return remains conditional; current observed lineup supersedes October12 morning expectation. Evangelista illness not presumed absent after participation. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. DET: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Little Caesars Arena; listed 2026-10-13T22:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets · 6:15 PM ET

Away: Florida Panthers · Home: Columbus Blue Jackets · Nationwide Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Columbus Blue Jackets Home margin 0.39 Total 6.16	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.11 Total: LEAN Difference -0.34	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Columbus Blue Jackets Home margin 0.24 Total 6.16	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.26 Total: LEAN Difference -0.34	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Columbus Blue Jackets Home margin 0.14 Total 6.20	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.36 Total: LEAN Difference -0.30	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Columbus Blue Jackets Home margin 0.14 Total 6.20	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.36 Total: LEAN Difference -0.30	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+105 / -125	+1.5 (-245) / -1.5 (+200)	6.50 — O +114 / U -135	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.099710+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

FLA: Current reference already omits Barkov/Marchand/Gadjovich. Brady Tkachuk recent actual participation supersedes stale DTD flag; Markstrom exit and Schmid relief remain separate goalie uncertainty. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. CBJ: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 4 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Nationwide Arena; listed 2026-10-13T22:15Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens · 6:30 PM ET

Away: Buffalo Sabres · Home: Montreal Canadiens · Bell Centre. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Montreal Canadiens Home margin 0.15 Total 6.52	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.35 Total: LEAN Difference 0.02	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.5	Montreal Canadiens Home margin 0.07 Total 6.57	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.43 Total: LEAN Difference 0.07	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Buffalo Sabres Home margin -0.09 Total 6.42	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.59 Total: LEAN Difference -0.08	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Buffalo Sabres Home margin -0.09 Total 6.42	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.59 Total: LEAN Difference -0.08	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+130 / -155	+1.5 (-192) / -1.5 (+160)	6.50 — O -105 / U -115	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.161869+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

BUF: Dahlin left October12 early and did not travel; do not repeat his partial-game PP role as healthy. Exclusion and acquisition-depth branches retained; Jones/Laatsch/Johnson trade source primary and both sides reviewed. Recent-reference new availability branches: Rasmus Dahlin. MTL: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Bell Centre; listed 2026-10-13T22:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes · 6:45 PM ET

Away: Washington Capitals · Home: Carolina Hurricanes · Lenovo Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Carolina Hurricanes Home margin 0.49 Total 6.33	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.01 Total: LEAN Difference -0.17	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Carolina Hurricanes Home margin 0.57 Total 6.33	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.93 Total: LEAN Difference -0.17	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Carolina Hurricanes Home margin 0.20 Total 6.26	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.30 Total: LEAN Difference -0.24	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Carolina Hurricanes Home margin 0.20 Total 6.26	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.30 Total: LEAN Difference -0.24	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+136 / -162	+1.5 (-192) / -1.5 (+160)	6.50 — O +105 / U -125	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.115373+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

WSH: Dubois will not travel with illness, Roy IR and Sandin LTIR; Holl recalled. Current reference already excludes those players; Tuch maintenance not assumed absent. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. CAR: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Lenovo Center; listed 2026-10-13T22:45Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NCAAF · Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Delaware Blue Hens · Home: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	27.0 / 26.5 Adjusted 24.0 / 26.5	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Home margin 2.25 Total 50.30	Spread: LEAN Buffer 3.75 Total: LEAN Difference 2.80	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Primary	24.0 / 29.5 Adjusted 21.0 / 29.5	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Home margin 8.43 Total 50.32	Spread: LEAN Buffer 9.93 Total: LEAN Difference 2.82	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ON	28.5 / 26.0 Adjusted 25.5 / 26.0	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Home margin 0.56 Total 51.35	Spread: LEAN Buffer 2.06 Total: LEAN Difference 3.85	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	28.5 / 26.0 Adjusted 25.5 / 26.0	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Home margin 0.56 Total 51.35	Spread: LEAN Buffer 2.06 Total: LEAN Difference 3.85	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-122 / +102	-1.5 (-112) / +1.5 (-108)	47.50 — O -115 / U -105	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.124006+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Delaware Blue Hens: Nick Minicucci UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.; If Minicucci remains unavailable, incumbent starter snaps/passing/rushing redistribute to Archield and possibly Streeter/Bell; exact Oct13share not confirmed. Latest Liberty debut does not guarantee sole starter workload. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2813 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2813 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.

Gideon Marsh

All four base scores loaded unchanged from latest shared cutoff; unrounded conditional -3affects only Delaware. ON/OFF same arithmetic; effect on winner disagreement retained.

ConstitutionOwl

Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium; listed 2026-10-13T23:00Z. Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro. Official host actual kickoff6:02PM CT/7:02PM ET; feed rounds7PM ET. Delaware last played Oct2 at home; Middle Tennessee Oct3 at Kansas.11/10calendar-day intervals. Delaware crosses one time zone west; host returns from Kansas. Delaware Minicucci prior-game injury: current QB return unresolved; conditional football replacement overlay retained.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-13T05:38:19.844660+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-13T03:36:08+00:00; periods: number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T18:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 84; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 52; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 80; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 1; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 57; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 75; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 1; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 69; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: S; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 73; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 1; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 71; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: S; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS outdoor hourly conditions; no unregistered numerical weather adjustment.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401871067",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871067",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.124006+00:00",
    "selection_side": "home",
    "line": 1.5,
    "home_line": 1.5,
    "pick": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +1.5",
    "price": -108.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 2.0625000000000036,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -0.9374999999999964,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.9374999999999964,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964,
    "base_score": [
      28.391666666666666,
      25.95416666666667
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      25.391666666666666,
      25.95416666666667
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          25.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 2.0625000000000036,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0625000000000036,
        "adverse_score": [
          28.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.9374999999999964
      },
      {
        "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation",
        "score": [
          28.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.9374999999999964,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964,
        "adverse_score": [
          31.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved",
        "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress",
        "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; actual QB availability remains unresolved."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -3.9374999999999964,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation",
        "score": [
          28.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.9374999999999964,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964,
        "adverse_score": [
          31.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/conditional",
          "score": [
            25.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "buffer": 2.0625000000000036,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0625000000000036,
          "adverse_score": [
            28.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.9374999999999964
        },
        {
          "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation",
          "score": [
            28.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "buffer": -0.9374999999999964,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964,
          "adverse_score": [
            31.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        25.391666666666666,
        25.95416666666667
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        28.391666666666666,
        25.95416666666667
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333,
      "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401871067",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871067",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.124006+00:00",
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 47.5,
    "home_line": 1.5,
    "pick": "Over 47.5",
    "price": -115.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314,
    "base_score": [
      28.391666666666666,
      25.95416666666667
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      25.391666666666666,
      25.95416666666667
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          25.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314,
        "adverse_score": [
          22.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314
      },
      {
        "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation",
        "score": [
          28.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 6.845833333333331,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.845833333333331,
        "adverse_score": [
          25.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333314
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved",
        "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress",
        "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; actual QB availability remains unresolved."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": 0.8458333333333314,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          25.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314,
        "adverse_score": [
          22.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/conditional",
          "score": [
            25.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314
        },
        {
          "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation",
          "score": [
            28.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "buffer": 6.845833333333331,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.845833333333331,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333314
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        25.391666666666666,
        25.95416666666667
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        28.391666666666666,
        25.95416666666667
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333,
      "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401871067",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871067",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.124006+00:00",
    "selection_side": "home",
    "line": 1.5,
    "home_line": 1.5,
    "pick": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +1.5",
    "price": -108.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 2.0625000000000036,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -0.9374999999999964,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.9374999999999964,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964,
    "base_score": [
      28.391666666666666,
      25.95416666666667
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      25.391666666666666,
      25.95416666666667
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          25.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 2.0625000000000036,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0625000000000036,
        "adverse_score": [
          28.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -0.9374999999999964
      },
      {
        "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation",
        "score": [
          28.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.9374999999999964,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964,
        "adverse_score": [
          31.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved",
        "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress",
        "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; actual QB availability remains unresolved."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -3.9374999999999964,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation",
        "score": [
          28.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": -0.9374999999999964,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964,
        "adverse_score": [
          31.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/conditional",
          "score": [
            25.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "buffer": 2.0625000000000036,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0625000000000036,
          "adverse_score": [
            28.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -0.9374999999999964
        },
        {
          "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation",
          "score": [
            28.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "buffer": -0.9374999999999964,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964,
          "adverse_score": [
            31.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        25.391666666666666,
        25.95416666666667
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        28.391666666666666,
        25.95416666666667
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333,
      "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401871067",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871067",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.124006+00:00",
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 47.5,
    "home_line": 1.5,
    "pick": "Over 47.5",
    "price": -115.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314,
    "base_score": [
      28.391666666666666,
      25.95416666666667
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      25.391666666666666,
      25.95416666666667
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          25.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314,
        "adverse_score": [
          22.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314
      },
      {
        "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation",
        "score": [
          28.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 6.845833333333331,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.845833333333331,
        "adverse_score": [
          25.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333314
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved",
        "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress",
        "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; actual QB availability remains unresolved."
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": 0.8458333333333314,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          25.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314,
        "adverse_score": [
          22.391666666666666,
          25.95416666666667
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314
      },
      "scenario_count": 2,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/conditional",
          "score": [
            25.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "buffer": 3.8458333333333314,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314
        },
        {
          "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation",
          "score": [
            28.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "buffer": 6.845833333333331,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.845833333333331,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.391666666666666,
            25.95416666666667
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333314
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        25.391666666666666,
        25.95416666666667
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        28.391666666666666,
        25.95416666666667
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333,
      "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

Classic

Conditional joint 24.0 / 26.5

Nick Minicucci: UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.; isolated 24.0 / 26.5; other team production 24.0 / 26.5

Primary

Conditional joint 21.0 / 29.5

Nick Minicucci: UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.; isolated 21.0 / 29.5; other team production 21.0 / 29.5

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 25.5 / 26.0

Nick Minicucci: UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.; isolated 25.5 / 26.0; other team production 25.5 / 26.0

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 25.5 / 26.0

Nick Minicucci: UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.; isolated 25.5 / 26.0; other team production 25.5 / 26.0

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

UFC · Ilias Bulaid at Erick Visconde · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Ilias Bulaid · Home: Erick Visconde · Meta APEX. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Primary	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ON	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; round total, spread not applicable. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
BetUS	-150 / +120	OFF / unavailable (OFF / unavailable) / OFF / unavailable (OFF / unavailable)	2.50 — O +110 / U -140	Source 2026-10-13T05:54:13Z

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Official current card and Week10 weigh-in verify all ten fighters at permitted weights. No new cancellation found at capture. Current rescheduled Bulaid–Visconde bout distinguished from Week8 postponement. No athlete point-score projection.

Uncle Sibursam

No registered validated UFC performance-to-score engine. Team-sport inputs do not apply to bout outcomes.

Gideon Marsh

All four configuration outputs explicitly unavailable; no numerical arithmetic or agreement claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas; card starts 2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00. Bout order/times may change.

Polly Ticks

Indoor venue; no exterior weather scoring adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before this freeze. Prior exposure disclosed. Complete bout-level paired market must be checked separately.

Warren Bullion

PASS / no registered scoring engine. Include in coverage ledger; apply ordinary incomplete-market removal only after fresh verification.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Seattle Kraken · Home: Philadelphia Flyers · Xfinity Mobile Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Seattle Kraken Home margin -0.14 Total 6.01	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.64 Total: LEAN Difference 0.51	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Philadelphia Flyers Home margin 0.08 Total 5.91	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.42 Total: LEAN Difference 0.41	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Philadelphia Flyers Home margin 0.21 Total 5.85	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.29 Total: LEAN Difference 0.35	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Philadelphia Flyers Home margin 0.21 Total 5.85	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.29 Total: LEAN Difference 0.35	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+102 / -122	+1.5 (-245) / -1.5 (+200)	5.50 — O -130 / U +110	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.338828+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

SEA: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. PHI: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Xfinity Mobile Arena; listed 2026-10-13T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Cleveland Cavaliers · Home: Orlando Magic · Kia Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	116.0 / 117.0 Adjusted 116.0 / 117.0	Orlando Magic Home margin 1.26 Total 232.90	Spread: LEAN Buffer 2.76 Total: LEAN Difference 3.40	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/4; 95% Wilson 0.0–49.0%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	114.0 / 113.5 Adjusted 114.0 / 113.5	Cleveland Cavaliers Home margin -0.62 Total 227.79	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.88 Total: LEAN Difference -1.71	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/4; 95% Wilson 0.0–49.0%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	117.5 / 115.5 Adjusted 117.5 / 115.5	Cleveland Cavaliers Home margin -1.73 Total 232.89	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.23 Total: LEAN Difference 3.39	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/4; 95% Wilson 4.6–69.9%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	117.5 / 115.5 Adjusted 117.5 / 115.5	Cleveland Cavaliers Home margin -1.73 Total 232.89	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.23 Total: LEAN Difference 3.39	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/4; 95% Wilson 4.6–69.9%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-122 / +102	-1.5 (-110) / +1.5 (-110)	229.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.428691+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Orlando Magic: Richardson starts with Suggs illness and Black ankle absence; Bane and Isaac also absent in latest reference. All observed October 12 shots and creation belong to Richardson/Carter/Davison and current teammates. Return branches use earlier actual preseason rotations; no DTD converted to OUT. Cleveland Cavaliers: Allen/Mobley/Harden/Mitchell/Watson October 12 first unit intact in observed reference. Diop and Tomlin dated DTD flags distinct from zero-minute coach decisions. Diop/Yaacov unreturned NBA history has no assumed zero ability or invented return workload.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2792 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Kia Center; listed 2026-10-13T23:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs CLE 7:00 pm ET Kia Center Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors · 7:00 PM ET

Away: New York Knicks · Home: Toronto Raptors · Scotiabank Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	112.5 / 114.0 Adjusted 112.5 / 114.0	Toronto Raptors Home margin 1.25 Total 226.51	Spread: LEAN Buffer -9.25 Total: LEAN Difference 8.01	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/4; 95% Wilson 0.0–49.0%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	112.5 / 110.0 Adjusted 112.5 / 110.0	New York Knicks Home margin -2.46 Total 222.47	Spread: LEAN Buffer -12.96 Total: LEAN Difference 3.97	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/4; 95% Wilson 0.0–49.0%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	114.0 / 112.5 Adjusted 114.0 / 112.5	New York Knicks Home margin -1.75 Total 226.51	Spread: LEAN Buffer -12.25 Total: LEAN Difference 8.01	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/4; 95% Wilson 4.6–69.9%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	114.0 / 112.5 Adjusted 114.0 / 112.5	New York Knicks Home margin -1.75 Total 226.51	Spread: LEAN Buffer -12.25 Total: LEAN Difference 8.01	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/4; 95% Wilson 4.6–69.9%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+340 / -440	+10.5 (-110) / -10.5 (-110)	218.50 — O -115 / U -105	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.338828+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Toronto Raptors: September Leonard acquisition and outgoing Dick/Ingram reviewed on both sides. Current actual reference has Walter/Barrett/Barnes/Poeltl/Quickley; Leonard has no current role sample and a return is unestimated rather than invented. Hepburn waived October12 and removed; Jackson-Davis/Graves return not confirmed. New York Knicks: Latest October12 Anunoby/Towns/Hart/Bridges/Brunson reference retained. All five new DTD flags may reflect back-to-back management; full first-unit-rest and previous-rotation branches are sensitivities, not five confirmed injuries.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2792 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Scotiabank Arena; listed 2026-10-13T23:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs NYK 7:00 pm ET Scotiabank Arena Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

UFC · Aline Pereira at Smilla Sundell · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Aline Pereira · Home: Smilla Sundell · Meta APEX. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Primary	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ON	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; round total, spread not applicable. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
BetUS	+475 / -725	OFF / unavailable (OFF / unavailable) / OFF / unavailable (OFF / unavailable)	2.50 — O -110 / U -120	Source 2026-10-13T05:54:13Z

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Official current card and Week10 weigh-in verify all ten fighters at permitted weights. No new cancellation found at capture. Current rescheduled Bulaid–Visconde bout distinguished from Week8 postponement. No athlete point-score projection.

Uncle Sibursam

No registered validated UFC performance-to-score engine. Team-sport inputs do not apply to bout outcomes.

Gideon Marsh

All four configuration outputs explicitly unavailable; no numerical arithmetic or agreement claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas; card starts 2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00. Bout order/times may change.

Polly Ticks

Indoor venue; no exterior weather scoring adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before this freeze. Prior exposure disclosed. Complete bout-level paired market must be checked separately.

Warren Bullion

PASS / no registered scoring engine. Include in coverage ledger; apply ordinary incomplete-market removal only after fresh verification.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

UFC · Will Rentz at Luis Francischinelli · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Will Rentz · Home: Luis Francischinelli · Meta APEX. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Primary	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ON	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; round total, spread not applicable. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
BetUS	+205 / -245	OFF / unavailable (OFF / unavailable) / OFF / unavailable (OFF / unavailable)	1.50 — O +230 / U -290	Source 2026-10-13T05:54:13Z

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Official current card and Week10 weigh-in verify all ten fighters at permitted weights. No new cancellation found at capture. Current rescheduled Bulaid–Visconde bout distinguished from Week8 postponement. No athlete point-score projection.

Uncle Sibursam

No registered validated UFC performance-to-score engine. Team-sport inputs do not apply to bout outcomes.

Gideon Marsh

All four configuration outputs explicitly unavailable; no numerical arithmetic or agreement claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas; card starts 2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00. Bout order/times may change.

Polly Ticks

Indoor venue; no exterior weather scoring adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before this freeze. Prior exposure disclosed. Complete bout-level paired market must be checked separately.

Warren Bullion

PASS / no registered scoring engine. Include in coverage ledger; apply ordinary incomplete-market removal only after fresh verification.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

UFC · Davi Cabral at Douglas da Lapa · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Davi Cabral · Home: Douglas da Lapa · Meta APEX. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Primary	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ON	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; round total, spread not applicable. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
BetUS	+140 / -170	OFF / unavailable (OFF / unavailable) / OFF / unavailable (OFF / unavailable)	1.50 — O +105 / U -135	Source 2026-10-13T05:54:13Z

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Official current card and Week10 weigh-in verify all ten fighters at permitted weights. No new cancellation found at capture. Current rescheduled Bulaid–Visconde bout distinguished from Week8 postponement. No athlete point-score projection.

Uncle Sibursam

No registered validated UFC performance-to-score engine. Team-sport inputs do not apply to bout outcomes.

Gideon Marsh

All four configuration outputs explicitly unavailable; no numerical arithmetic or agreement claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas; card starts 2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00. Bout order/times may change.

Polly Ticks

Indoor venue; no exterior weather scoring adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before this freeze. Prior exposure disclosed. Complete bout-level paired market must be checked separately.

Warren Bullion

PASS / no registered scoring engine. Include in coverage ledger; apply ordinary incomplete-market removal only after fresh verification.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

UFC · Jason Asher at Greg Foster · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Jason Asher · Home: Greg Foster · Meta APEX. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Primary	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ON	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; round total, spread not applicable. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
BetUS	-195 / +165	OFF / unavailable (OFF / unavailable) / OFF / unavailable (OFF / unavailable)	1.50 — O -110 / U -120	Source 2026-10-13T05:54:13Z

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Official current card and Week10 weigh-in verify all ten fighters at permitted weights. No new cancellation found at capture. Current rescheduled Bulaid–Visconde bout distinguished from Week8 postponement. No athlete point-score projection.

Uncle Sibursam

No registered validated UFC performance-to-score engine. Team-sport inputs do not apply to bout outcomes.

Gideon Marsh

All four configuration outputs explicitly unavailable; no numerical arithmetic or agreement claimed.

ConstitutionOwl

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas; card starts 2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00. Bout order/times may change.

Polly Ticks

Indoor venue; no exterior weather scoring adjustment.

Liberty Belle

No fresh prices requested before this freeze. Prior exposure disclosed. Complete bout-level paired market must be checked separately.

Warren Bullion

PASS / no registered scoring engine. Include in coverage ledger; apply ordinary incomplete-market removal only after fresh verification.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers · 7:15 PM ET

Away: Tampa Bay Lightning · Home: New York Rangers · Madison Square Garden. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Tampa Bay Lightning Home margin -0.04 Total 5.97	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.46 Total: LEAN Difference 0.47	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Tampa Bay Lightning Home margin -0.18 Total 6.00	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.32 Total: LEAN Difference 0.50	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Tampa Bay Lightning Home margin -0.43 Total 6.09	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.07 Total: LEAN Difference 0.59	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Tampa Bay Lightning Home margin -0.43 Total 6.09	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.07 Total: LEAN Difference 0.59	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-162 / +136	-1.5 (+154) / +1.5 (-185)	5.50 — O -135 / U +114	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.566070+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

TBL: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. NYR: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Madison Square Garden; listed 2026-10-13T23:15Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators · 7:30 PM ET

Away: St. Louis Blues · Home: Ottawa Senators · Canadian Tire Centre. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	2.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.5	Ottawa Senators Home margin 0.66 Total 6.04	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.84 Total: LEAN Difference 0.54	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	2.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin 0.51 Total 5.90	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.99 Total: LEAN Difference 0.40	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin 0.33 Total 6.12	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.17 Total: LEAN Difference 0.62	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin 0.33 Total 6.12	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.17 Total: LEAN Difference 0.62	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+100 / -120	+1.5 (-270) / -1.5 (+220)	5.50 — O -122 / U +102	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.525620+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

STL: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. OTT: Sanderson/Zub/Crotty out; Matinpalo new October12 issue after short appearance requires conditional depth transfer. Chabot/Spence/Kleven/Yakemchuk/Stanley previous usage preserved. Recent-reference new availability branches: Nikolas Matinpalo.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Canadian Tire Centre; listed 2026-10-13T23:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders · 7:45 PM ET

Away: Vancouver Canucks · Home: New York Islanders · UBS Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	New York Islanders Home margin 0.88 Total 6.39	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.62 Total: LEAN Difference -0.11	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	2.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.5	New York Islanders Home margin 0.85 Total 6.29	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.65 Total: LEAN Difference -0.21	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	2.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.5	New York Islanders Home margin 0.59 Total 6.03	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.91 Total: LEAN Difference -0.47	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	2.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 2.5 / 3.5	New York Islanders Home margin 0.59 Total 6.03	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.91 Total: LEAN Difference -0.47	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+180 / -218	+1.5 (-142) / -1.5 (+120)	6.50 — O +114 / U -135	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.563935+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

VAN: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. NYI: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

UBS Arena; listed 2026-10-13T23:45Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NCAAF · Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Florida International Panthers · Home: Jacksonville State Gamecocks · AmFirst Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	23.5 / 25.0 Adjusted 23.5 / 25.0	Jacksonville State Gamecocks Home margin 1.51 Total 48.84	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.49 Total: LEAN Difference 5.34	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Primary	19.5 / 30.0 Adjusted 19.5 / 30.0	Jacksonville State Gamecocks Home margin 10.79 Total 49.66	Spread: LEAN Buffer 7.79 Total: LEAN Difference 6.16	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative ON	24.0 / 25.5 Adjusted 24.0 / 25.5	Jacksonville State Gamecocks Home margin 1.31 Total 49.75	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.69 Total: ELIGIBLE Difference 6.25	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	24.0 / 25.5 Adjusted 24.0 / 25.5	Jacksonville State Gamecocks Home margin 1.31 Total 49.75	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.69 Total: ELIGIBLE Difference 6.25	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	No matched sport/stage observations (n=0)

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+120 / -142	+3 (-115) / -3 (-105)	43.50 — O -112 / U -108	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.559680+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Florida International Panthers: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger. Jacksonville State Gamecocks: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 13 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2813 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 13 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2813 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded ±10 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3–70. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.

Gideon Marsh

All four base scores loaded unchanged from latest shared cutoff; unrounded conditional -3affects only Delaware. ON/OFF same arithmetic; effect on winner disagreement retained.

ConstitutionOwl

AmFirst Stadium; listed 2026-10-14T00:00Z. AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville Alabama,8PM ET/7PM CT. Both played Oct7: six-calendar-day turnaround; FIU travels from Miami, Jacksonville State returns from Kennesaw. Official coach explains advance preparation and normal-practice sequence adapted to short week.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-13T05:38:19.782072+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-12T23:06:36+00:00; periods: number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 75; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 74; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 69; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 87; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 90; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 66; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 90; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS outdoor hourly conditions; no unregistered numerical weather adjustment.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401871053",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871053",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.375658+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.559680+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": 3.0,
    "home_line": -3.0,
    "pick": "Florida International Panthers +3",
    "price": -115.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318,
    "base_score": [
      24.21801282051282,
      25.52878205128205
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      24.21801282051282,
      25.52878205128205
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          28.52878205128205
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty",
        "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -1.3107692307692318,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          28.52878205128205
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/conditional",
          "score": [
            24.21801282051282,
            25.52878205128205
          ],
          "buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.21801282051282,
            28.52878205128205
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        24.21801282051282,
        25.52878205128205
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        24.21801282051282,
        25.52878205128205
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487,
      "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401871053",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871053",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.375658+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.559680+00:00",
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 43.5,
    "home_line": -3.0,
    "pick": "Over 43.5",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 6.246794871794869,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.246794871794869,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.246794871794869,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687,
    "base_score": [
      24.21801282051282,
      25.52878205128205
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      24.21801282051282,
      25.52878205128205
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "buffer": 6.246794871794869,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty",
        "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "ELIGIBLE",
    "decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE",
    "reasons": [],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 3.2467948717948687,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "buffer": 6.246794871794869,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/conditional",
          "score": [
            24.21801282051282,
            25.52878205128205
          ],
          "buffer": 6.246794871794869,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.21801282051282,
            25.52878205128205
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        24.21801282051282,
        25.52878205128205
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        24.21801282051282,
        25.52878205128205
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487,
      "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401871053",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "spread",
    "matchup": "Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871053",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.375658+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.559680+00:00",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": 3.0,
    "home_line": -3.0,
    "pick": "Florida International Panthers +3",
    "price": -115.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318,
    "base_score": [
      24.21801282051282,
      25.52878205128205
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      24.21801282051282,
      25.52878205128205
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          28.52878205128205
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty",
        "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical mean buffer below required floor",
      "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor",
      "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch"
    ],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -1.3107692307692318,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682,
        "adverse_score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          28.52878205128205
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/conditional",
          "score": [
            24.21801282051282,
            25.52878205128205
          ],
          "buffer": 1.6892307692307682,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682,
          "adverse_score": [
            24.21801282051282,
            28.52878205128205
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        24.21801282051282,
        25.52878205128205
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        24.21801282051282,
        25.52878205128205
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487,
      "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401871053",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "market": "total",
    "matchup": "Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871053",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.375658+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.559680+00:00",
    "selection_side": "over",
    "line": 43.5,
    "home_line": -3.0,
    "pick": "Over 43.5",
    "price": -112.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 6.246794871794869,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.246794871794869,
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.246794871794869,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687,
    "base_score": [
      24.21801282051282,
      25.52878205128205
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      24.21801282051282,
      25.52878205128205
    ],
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "buffer": 6.246794871794869,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 0,
    "unresolved_medium": 0,
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty",
        "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.",
        "markets": [
          "winner",
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      }
    ],
    "state": "ELIGIBLE",
    "decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE",
    "reasons": [],
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 3.2467948717948687,
      "worst_case": {
        "branch": "production/conditional",
        "score": [
          24.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "buffer": 6.246794871794869,
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869,
        "adverse_score": [
          21.21801282051282,
          25.52878205128205
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687
      },
      "scenario_count": 1,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "branch": "production/conditional",
          "score": [
            24.21801282051282,
            25.52878205128205
          ],
          "buffer": 6.246794871794869,
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869,
          "adverse_score": [
            21.21801282051282,
            25.52878205128205
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite."
    },
    "preprice_opponent_bounds": {
      "away_selection": [
        24.21801282051282,
        25.52878205128205
      ],
      "home_selection": [
        24.21801282051282,
        25.52878205128205
      ]
    },
    "total_adverse_bounds": {
      "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487,
      "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487
    },
    "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier."
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Pittsburgh Penguins · Home: Chicago Blackhawks · United Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Pittsburgh Penguins Home margin -0.57 Total 6.40	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.93 Total: LEAN Difference -0.10	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Pittsburgh Penguins Home margin -0.66 Total 6.52	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.84 Total: LEAN Difference 0.02	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Pittsburgh Penguins Home margin -0.56 Total 6.27	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.94 Total: LEAN Difference -0.23	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Pittsburgh Penguins Home margin -0.56 Total 6.27	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.94 Total: LEAN Difference -0.23	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-142 / +120	-1.5 (+180) / +1.5 (-218)	6.50 — O -105 / U -115	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.645575+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

PIT: Kuzmenko practice return is bereavement-related, not current confirmed medical absence; possible Kindel/Koivunen line. Van Riemsdyk will not travel; acquired Ryan Johnson has no assumed NHL debut. Stastney actual reference already reflects October7 trade. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. CHI: Bedard potential return verified primary; first-line center with Kantserov/Kane and PP with Bertuzzi/Byram identified. Conditional return replaces one center role, not added player points. Nazar suspension kept separate. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

United Center; listed 2026-10-14T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Cleveland Guardians · Home: Tampa Bay Rays · Tropicana Field. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 3.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	4.0 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.0 / 4.5	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin 0.41 Total 8.41	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.09 Total: LEAN Difference 1.41	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct12, stage 3; skips 0
Primary	3.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.5	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin 0.36 Total 6.92	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.14 Total: NO_EDGE Difference -0.08	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct12, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	4.0 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.0 / 4.5	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin 0.23 Total 8.43	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer -1.27 Total: NO_EDGE Difference 1.43	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct12, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	4.0 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.0 / 4.5	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin 0.23 Total 8.43	Spread: TIER ELIGIBLE Buffer -1.27 Total: LEAN Difference 1.43	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/2; 95% Wilson 9.5–90.5%; Oct12, stage 3; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+114 / -137	+1.5 (-199) / -1.5 (+163)	7.00 — O +102 / U -122	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.668361+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Cleveland Guardians: October12 actual nine retained as conditional Game2 reference against same opposing pitcher hand. No new confirmed hitter absence in current official record. Halpin/Martinez performance-selection branch separate from injury. Tampa Bay Rays: October12 actual nine retained as conditional Game2 reference against left-handed Messick. Primary collision follow-up: Caminero stayed in game, manager says OK; DeLuca reports left shoulder/hand contact but expects no subsequent issue. No confirmed new hitter absence. Retain conditional collision and catcher/outfield platoon branches without automatic deduction.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current; home: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current. Primary uses 4952 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Tropicana Field; listed 2026-10-14T00:00Z. Official MLB game date/time/venue and postseason series verified. Cleveland and Tampa Bay played here Oct12; same-venue second consecutive day.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Tropicana Field fixed-roof venue; no direct outside-weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.0868441358024694,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.08684413580246941,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Cleveland Guardians",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -199.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 1.4131558641975306,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.",
      "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.",
      "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.",
      "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.4087577160493812,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.40875771604938116,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.0,
    "price": 102.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.408757716049381,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 3,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.",
      "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.",
      "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.",
      "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.",
      "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted.",
      "Classic/TUtotal near8.4, Primary near6.9; winner margins all underhalf-run. Frozen four-model arithmetic retained; disagreement itself not forcedPASS for a qualifying market-specific buffer."
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.135448464239897,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.13544846423989698,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Cleveland Guardians",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -199.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 1.364551535760103,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration.",
      "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.",
      "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.",
      "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.",
      "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 0.07756458269288125,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.9224354173071188,
    "same_side_after_one_run": false,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.",
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Under",
    "line": 7.0,
    "price": -122.0,
    "reason": "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.922435417307119,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 3,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": false,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.",
      "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.",
      "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.",
      "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.",
      "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted.",
      "Classic/TUtotal near8.4, Primary near6.9; winner margins all underhalf-run. Frozen four-model arithmetic retained; disagreement itself not forcedPASS for a qualifying market-specific buffer."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.268518518518519,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.26851851851851904,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.",
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Cleveland Guardians",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -199.0,
    "reason": "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Conservative ON also disallows unresolved medium availability risk.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 1.231481481481481,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Conservative ON also disallows unresolved medium availability risk.",
      "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.",
      "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.",
      "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.",
      "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.4290123456790127,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.4290123456790127,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.",
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.0,
    "price": 102.0,
    "reason": "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 3,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.",
      "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.",
      "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.",
      "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.",
      "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted.",
      "Classic/TUtotal near8.4, Primary near6.9; winner margins all underhalf-run. Frozen four-model arithmetic retained; disagreement itself not forcedPASS for a qualifying market-specific buffer."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.268518518518519,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.26851851851851904,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.",
    "final_state": "TIER ELIGIBLE",
    "production_decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY",
    "promotion_allowed": true,
    "selection": "Cleveland Guardians",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -199.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Two frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload and reference conversion) require downgrade; Pick of the Day and Bonus require at most one medium, so optional Free Pick only. This is descriptive gate eligibility, not demonstrated positive expected value or calibrated probability.",
    "stressed_home_margin": 1.231481481481481,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 2,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion"
    ],
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "maximum_tier": "Free Pick",
    "state": "TIER ELIGIBLE",
    "decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Two frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload and reference conversion) require downgrade; Pick of the Day and Bonus require at most one medium, so optional Free Pick only. This is descriptive gate eligibility, not demonstrated positive expected value or calibrated probability.",
      "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.",
      "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.",
      "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.",
      "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.4290123456790127,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.4290123456790127,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.0,
    "price": 102.0,
    "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.",
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013,
    "unresolved_high_risks": 0,
    "unresolved_medium_risks": 3,
    "risk_ids": [
      "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration",
      "mlb-reference-conversion",
      "mlb-model-disagreement"
    ],
    "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true,
    "maximum_tier": null,
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.",
      "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.",
      "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.",
      "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.",
      "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted.",
      "Classic/TUtotal near8.4, Primary near6.9; winner margins all underhalf-run. Frozen four-model arithmetic retained; disagreement itself not forcedPASS for a qualifying market-specific buffer."
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Indiana Pacers · Home: Oklahoma City Thunder · Paycom Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	108.5 / 121.0 Adjusted 108.5 / 121.0	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin 12.57 Total 229.87	Spread: LEAN Buffer 6.07 Total: LEAN Difference 1.37	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/4; 95% Wilson 0.0–49.0%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	108.5 / 120.5 Adjusted 108.5 / 120.5	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin 12.11 Total 229.39	Spread: LEAN Buffer 5.61 Total: LEAN Difference 0.89	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/4; 95% Wilson 0.0–49.0%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	110.0 / 119.5 Adjusted 110.0 / 119.5	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin 9.57 Total 229.87	Spread: LEAN Buffer 3.07 Total: LEAN Difference 1.37	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/4; 95% Wilson 4.6–69.9%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	110.0 / 119.5 Adjusted 110.0 / 119.5	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin 9.57 Total 229.87	Spread: LEAN Buffer 3.07 Total: LEAN Difference 1.37	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/4; 95% Wilson 4.6–69.9%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+225 / -278	+6.5 (-105) / -6.5 (-115)	228.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.699423+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Oklahoma City Thunder: October12 bench-only Atlanta trip is a distinct reference; regulars did not travel. October7 regular-led alternate retained for home return. Holmgren quadriceps, Topic back, Sorber knee remain separate unresolved medical issues. Do not forecast October12 40-minute reserve workload as a coach commitment. Indiana Pacers: Haliburton full Monday practice but game-day decision. Latest Nembhard-led reference excludes him and McConnell; preserve prior October7 Haliburton actual branch for minutes/shots/creation redistribution without a PPG deduction.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2792 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Paycom Center; listed 2026-10-14T00:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs IND 8:00 pm ET Paycom Center Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets · 8:15 PM ET

Away: Minnesota Wild · Home: Winnipeg Jets · Canada Life Centre. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild Home margin -0.29 Total 5.93	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.79 Total: LEAN Difference -0.57	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild Home margin -0.29 Total 5.98	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.79 Total: LEAN Difference -0.52	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild Home margin -0.37 Total 6.02	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.87 Total: LEAN Difference -0.48	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild Home margin -0.37 Total 6.02	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.87 Total: LEAN Difference -0.48	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-105 / -115	+1.5 (-270) / -1.5 (+220)	6.50 — O +105 / U -125	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.799529+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

MIN: Marcus Foligno IR and Pitlick recall; Nico Sturm newly Out during October12 game, remove partial role conditionally and test recalled depth. Nick Foligno/Faber remain absent. Goaltenders kept separate. Recent-reference new availability branches: Nico Sturm. WPG: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Canada Life Centre; listed 2026-10-14T00:15Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars · 8:30 PM ET

Away: Colorado Avalanche · Home: Dallas Stars · American Airlines Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Colorado Avalanche Home margin -0.14 Total 6.17	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.36 Total: LEAN Difference 0.67	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Colorado Avalanche Home margin -0.24 Total 6.18	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.26 Total: LEAN Difference 0.68	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Colorado Avalanche Home margin -0.30 Total 6.04	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.20 Total: LEAN Difference 0.54	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Colorado Avalanche Home margin -0.30 Total 6.04	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.20 Total: LEAN Difference 0.54	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-115 / -105	-1.5 (+220) / +1.5 (-270)	5.50 — O -135 / U +114	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.789770+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

COL: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. DAL: Duchene surgery and three-month absence confirmed; all five regular games already omit him so no repeat full-player deduction. Faksa/Kiviranta expected available, not fresh losses; stale Lundkvist Out flag superseded by current actual play. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

American Airlines Center; listed 2026-10-14T00:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators · 8:45 PM ET

Away: Vegas Golden Knights · Home: Nashville Predators · Bridgestone Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Vegas Golden Knights Home margin -0.10 Total 6.20	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.40 Total: LEAN Difference -0.30	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Vegas Golden Knights Home margin -0.32 Total 6.17	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.18 Total: LEAN Difference -0.33	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Vegas Golden Knights Home margin -0.29 Total 6.19	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.21 Total: LEAN Difference -0.31	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Vegas Golden Knights Home margin -0.29 Total 6.19	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.21 Total: LEAN Difference -0.31	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-130 / +110	-1.5 (+190) / +1.5 (-230)	6.50 — O +110 / U -130	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.766078+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

VGK: Olofsson remains absent. October12 actual Coghlan replaces Wotherspoon, superseding older projected lines. Heinola alternative retained by observed prior opportunity; no new duplicate loss. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. NSH: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Bridgestone Arena; listed 2026-10-14T00:45Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth · 9:00 PM ET

Away: Toronto Maple Leafs · Home: Utah Mammoth · Delta Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Utah Mammoth Home margin 0.64 Total 6.41	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.86 Total: LEAN Difference -0.09	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Utah Mammoth Home margin 0.57 Total 6.54	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.93 Total: LEAN Difference 0.04	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Utah Mammoth Home margin 0.43 Total 6.43	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.07 Total: LEAN Difference -0.07	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Utah Mammoth Home margin 0.43 Total 6.43	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.07 Total: LEAN Difference -0.07	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+130 / -155	+1.5 (-180) / -1.5 (+150)	6.50 — O -108 / U -112	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.832681+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

TOR: Tanev IR after partial October10 exposure; Rifai recalled. Tavares likely return after family absence; explicit center-slot and defense-slot branches preserve exposure. Recent-reference new availability branches: Chris Tanev. UTA: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Delta Center; listed 2026-10-14T01:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks · 9:45 PM ET

Away: Calgary Flames · Home: Anaheim Ducks · Honda Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Anaheim Ducks Home margin 0.84 Total 6.35	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.66 Total: LEAN Difference -0.15	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Anaheim Ducks Home margin 0.64 Total 6.28	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.86 Total: LEAN Difference -0.22	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Anaheim Ducks Home margin 0.15 Total 6.20	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.35 Total: LEAN Difference -0.30	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Anaheim Ducks Home margin 0.15 Total 6.20	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.35 Total: LEAN Difference -0.30	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+170 / -205	+1.5 (-148) / -1.5 (+124)	6.50 — O +110 / U -130	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.872315+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

CGY: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. ANA: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: Ryan Poehling, Cutter Gauthier.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Honda Center; listed 2026-10-14T01:45Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers · 10:00 PM ET

Away: Golden State Warriors · Home: Los Angeles Lakers · T-Mobile Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	114.5 / 116.0 Adjusted 114.5 / 116.0	Los Angeles Lakers Home margin 1.16 Total 230.35	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.34 Total: LEAN Difference 2.85	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/4; 95% Wilson 0.0–49.0%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	112.5 / 113.0 Adjusted 112.5 / 113.0	Los Angeles Lakers Home margin 0.87 Total 225.50	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.63 Total: LEAN Difference -2.00	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/4; 95% Wilson 0.0–49.0%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	114.5 / 116.0 Adjusted 114.5 / 116.0	Los Angeles Lakers Home margin 1.16 Total 230.35	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.34 Total: LEAN Difference 2.85	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/4; 95% Wilson 4.6–69.9%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	114.5 / 116.0 Adjusted 114.5 / 116.0	Los Angeles Lakers Home margin 1.16 Total 230.35	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.34 Total: LEAN Difference 2.85	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/4; 95% Wilson 4.6–69.9%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+114 / -135	+2.5 (-110) / -2.5 (-110)	227.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.924221+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Los Angeles Lakers: Latest Doncic/Reaves/Grimes creation with Looney/Mamukelashvili center minutes. Kessler practice does not establish clearance; conditional return role unestimated without current sample. William Kyle waived October9, removed. Kaluma/Knecht/Sexton/Williams flags retain dates. Golden State Warriors: Santos/Lendeborg first-unit opportunities cover Butler/Moody absences. Horford explicitly will not travel Tuesday; remove his reference minutes and redistribute among current demonstrated participants. Porzingis absent, not automatically cleared. Miles Kelly waived. Neutral Las Vegas exhibition, not Lakers home advantage evidence.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2792 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

T-Mobile Arena; listed 2026-10-14T02:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs GSW 10:00 pm ET T-Mobile Arena Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only. Neutral exhibition at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, not Los Angeles. NeutralSite=true confirmed in score input.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings · 10:00 PM ET

Away: Portland Trail Blazers · Home: Sacramento Kings · Golden 1 Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	116.5 / 115.0 Adjusted 116.5 / 115.0	Portland Trail Blazers Home margin -1.85 Total 231.62	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.65 Total: LEAN Difference 4.12	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/4; 95% Wilson 0.0–49.0%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	115.5 / 112.0 Adjusted 115.5 / 112.0	Portland Trail Blazers Home margin -3.19 Total 227.56	Spread: LEAN Buffer 0.31 Total: LEAN Difference 0.06	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 0/4; 95% Wilson 0.0–49.0%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	118.0 / 113.5 Adjusted 118.0 / 113.5	Portland Trail Blazers Home margin -4.85 Total 231.62	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.35 Total: LEAN Difference 4.12	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/4; 95% Wilson 4.6–69.9%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	118.0 / 113.5 Adjusted 118.0 / 113.5	Portland Trail Blazers Home margin -4.85 Total 231.62	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.35 Total: LEAN Difference 4.12	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/4; 95% Wilson 4.6–69.9%; Oct12, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-170 / +142	-3.5 (-115) / +3.5 (-105)	227.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:31.929050+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Sacramento Kings: Sabonis and Monk practiced Monday but no Tuesday clearance. Cardwell calf uncertain; Raynaud newly Out after latest game so remove and redistribute big-man opportunities to Achiuwa/Mogbo in the conditional branch. Earlier full rotation remains return sensitivity. Portland Trail Blazers: Latest October12 reference has Holiday starting after Lillard rest, with Henderson reserve creation. Sharpe absence remains; Lillard/Williams/Youngblood Tuesday returns conditional using prior observed rotations. Jaylen Martin waived, removed. London blowout separated from NBA opponent sample.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2792 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

Golden 1 Center; listed 2026-10-14T02:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs POR 10:00 pm ET Golden 1 Center Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings · 10:30 PM ET

Away: Edmonton Oilers · Home: Los Angeles Kings · crypto.com Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Edmonton Oilers Home margin -0.28 Total 6.49	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.22 Total: LEAN Difference -0.01	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Edmonton Oilers Home margin -0.23 Total 6.41	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.27 Total: LEAN Difference -0.09	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Edmonton Oilers Home margin -0.21 Total 6.13	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.29 Total: LEAN Difference -0.37	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Edmonton Oilers Home margin -0.21 Total 6.13	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.29 Total: LEAN Difference -0.37	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-125 / +105	-1.5 (+200) / +1.5 (-245)	6.50 — O +114 / U -135	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:32.004686+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

EDM: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. LAK: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 4 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

crypto.com Arena; listed 2026-10-14T02:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks · 11:00 PM ET

Away: Boston Bruins · Home: San Jose Sharks · SAP Center at San Jose. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Boston Bruins Home margin -0.32 Total 6.33	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.82 Total: LEAN Difference -0.17	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Boston Bruins Home margin -0.46 Total 6.36	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.96 Total: LEAN Difference -0.14	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Boston Bruins Home margin -0.38 Total 6.43	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.88 Total: LEAN Difference -0.07	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.5 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.0	Boston Bruins Home margin -0.38 Total 6.43	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.88 Total: LEAN Difference -0.07	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct12, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-105 / -115	+1.5 (-270) / -1.5 (+220)	6.50 — O +110 / U -130	Source 2026-10-13T05:52:32.036004+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

BOS: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. SJS: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: Barclay Goodrow.

Uncle Sibursam

away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.

ConstitutionOwl

SAP Center at San Jose; listed 2026-10-14T03:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

Published OFF board

Scope and audit

All four forecasts

All-four agreement

Game-by-game evidence

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Polly Ticks

Liberty Belle

Warren Bullion

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Classic

Primary

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Captured market

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl