{ "created_utc": "2026-10-13T06:10:57.181193+00:00", "freeze_sha256": "b9b35b7741a12fcda6fa5d3733cf91c72e24615bb0cb450e1f56963d3b620e3e", "scope": { "MLB": 1, "NCAAF": 2, "NBA": 5, "NHL": 16, "NFL": 0, "FCS": 0, "NCAAM": 0, "WNBA": 0, "MLS": 0, "FBS": 2, "UFC": 5, "UFC_cards": 1, "all_scope_events": 29, "numeric_events": 24, "partial_numeric_events": 0, "numeric_model_rows": 96, "future_events": 29, "elapsed_events": 0, "summary_text": "29 research events: one MLB postseason game, two FBS football games, five NBA preseason games, sixteen NHL regular-season games and five Contender Series bouts. NFL, FCS, WNBA, NCAA men's basketball and MLS have no current events. Twenty-four team events have all four numeric outputs; UFC has no registered score engine." }, "games": [ { "id": "401892488", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892488", "date": "2026-10-13T22:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "11", "away_name": "New Jersey Devils", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.8004878048780486, 3.0746341463414635 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8004878048780486, 3.0746341463414635 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8004878048780486, 3.0746341463414635 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.8048780487804876, 3.097560975609756 ], "current_rates": [ 2.2, 3.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.9390243902439024, 3.1463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 2.0, 3.0 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.926825, 4.926825 ], "home": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.8223307188555924, 3.017177584460703 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8223307188555924, 3.017177584460703 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.8223307188555924, 3.017177584460703 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.926825, 4.926825 ], "home": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1, "official_team_name": "New Jersey Devils" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.91463, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 17, "official_team_name": "Detroit Red Wings" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.926825, 4.926825 ], "home": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.75609, "pa": 3.08536, "official_team_id": 1, "official_team_name": "New Jersey Devils" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.91463, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 17, "official_team_name": "Detroit Red Wings" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.926825, 4.926825 ], "home": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "NJD: Brown still working back with limited practice, Kovacevic possible return remains conditional; current observed lineup supersedes October12 morning expectation. Evangelista illness not presumed absent after participation. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. DET: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Little Caesars Arena; listed 2026-10-13T22:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892488", "sport": "NHL", "away": "New Jersey Devils", "home": "Detroit Red Wings", "start_et": "2026-10-13T18:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T22:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 6:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 6:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "New Jersey Devils", "previous_game": { "id": "401892486", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "14", "away_name": "Ottawa Senators", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "New Jersey Devils", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20738.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "previous_game": { "id": "401892473", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Montreal Canadiens", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020090, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 200 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 706, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 88 }, { "player_id": 8477015, "player": "Connor Brown", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 571, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 995, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 975, "PP_seconds": 50, "SH_seconds": 305 }, { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 944, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 316 }, { "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 862, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 730, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 869, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 302 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 700, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 736, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 100 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 620, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 212 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1013, "PP_seconds": 124, "SH_seconds": 236 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 602, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 223 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14086, "PP_seconds": 870, "SH_seconds": 2472 }, "calculation": "Transfer identified observed same-position role seconds to returning player; no added team exposure or goal/assist double count. Bedard primary top-line/PP1 role supported; exact displaced center and all other returns analyst sensitivity, not confirmed coach decisions.", "previous_current_role_samples": [] }, { "scenario": "Conditional return role sensitivity", "return_player": { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, "displaced_slot": { "player_id": 8475455, "player": "Brenden Dillon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 861, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 80 }, "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 643, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 861, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 80 }, { "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 200 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 706, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 88 }, { "player_id": 8482146, "player": "Luke Evangelista", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 571, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 995, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 975, "PP_seconds": 50, "SH_seconds": 305 }, { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 944, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 316 }, { "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 862, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 730, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 869, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 302 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 700, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 736, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 100 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 620, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 212 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1013, "PP_seconds": 124, "SH_seconds": 236 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 602, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 223 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14086, "PP_seconds": 870, "SH_seconds": 2472 }, "calculation": "Transfer identified observed same-position role seconds to returning player; no added team exposure or goal/assist double count. Bedard primary top-line/PP1 role supported; exact displaced center and all other returns analyst sensitivity, not confirmed coach decisions.", "previous_current_role_samples": [] } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8479996, "name": { "default": "C. Glass" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:52", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8480002, "name": { "default": "N. Hischier" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:08", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8478542, "name": { "default": "E. Rodrigues" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:40", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8478414, "name": { "default": "T. Meier" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:38", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8477511, "name": { "default": "A. Mantha" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:22", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8479407, "name": { "default": "J. Bratt" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:13", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8480003, "name": { "default": "J. Boqvist" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:43", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8482146, "name": { "default": "L. Evangelista" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:43", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8481721, "name": { "default": "A. Gritsyuk" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:56", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8481559, "name": { "default": "J. Hughes" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:41", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8482110, "name": { "default": "D. Mercer" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:45", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8483695, "name": { "default": "A. Lombardi" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:10", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8475455, "name": { "default": "B. Dillon" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:41", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8476462, "name": { "default": "D. Hamilton" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:10", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8477488, "name": { "default": "B. Pesce" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:00", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8482684, "name": { "default": "L. Hughes" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:53", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8480990, "name": { "default": "D. Chisholm" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:22", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "NJD", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8478399, "name": { "default": "J. Siegenthaler" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:31", "shifts": 23 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.8004878048780486, 3.0746341463414635 ], "Primary": [ 2.8223307188555924, 3.017177584460703 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Brown still working back with limited practice, Kovacevic possible return remains conditional; current observed lineup supersedes October12 morning expectation. Evangelista illness not presumed absent after participation. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-12", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8477015, "player": "Connor Brown", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482146, "player": "Luke Evangelista", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8476474, "player": "Stefan Noesen", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8475455, "player": "Brenden Dillon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8480192, "player": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8474596, "player": "Jake Allen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482076, "player": "Nico Daws", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" }, { "team": "NJD", "player_id": 8482465, "player": "R\u00e9mi Poirier", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NJD/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "New Jersey Devils", "abbreviation": "NJ", "player": "Nick Bjugstad", "player_id": "5828", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T22:49Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/11/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.462946+00:00" }, { "team": "New Jersey Devils", "abbreviation": "NJ", "player": "Connor Brown", "player_id": "3067951", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T14:16Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/11/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.462946+00:00" }, { "team": "New Jersey Devils", "abbreviation": "NJ", "player": "Seamus Casey", "player_id": "5080212", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-02T17:31Z" } ], "source": 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8481721, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 496, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 99.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 153, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 30.6, "shifts": 86, "shiftsPerGame": 17.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 4366, "timeOnIcePerGame": 873.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.76744 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3454, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 690.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Mercer", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482110, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 59, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 11.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 697, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 139.4, "shifts": 85, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Dawson Mercer", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 4210, "timeOnIcePerGame": 842.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.52941 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3853, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 770.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Evangelista", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482146, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1310, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 262.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 88, "shiftsPerGame": 17.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Luke Evangelista", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 5163, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1032.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 58.67045 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5433, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1086.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Hughes", "otTimeOnIce": 106, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 106.0, "playerId": 8482684, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1287, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 257.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 377, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 75.4, "shifts": 125, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Luke Hughes", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 7097, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1419.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.776 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3065, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 613.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Lombardi", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483695, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 99, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 19.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 72, "shiftsPerGame": 14.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Amadeus Lombardi", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 3164, "timeOnIcePerGame": 632.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.94444 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892488", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.8004878048780486, 3.0746341463414635 ], "Primary": [ 2.8223307188555924, 3.017177584460703 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Nick Bjugstad", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T22:49Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8477015, "incumbent": "Connor Brown", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T14:16Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8477015, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477015/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "14:01", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.363636, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 13, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 30, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.105691, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 123, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "15:41", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.533333, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 20, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.185185, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 27, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 25, "avgToi": "17:33", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.307692, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 75, "goals": 18, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 43, "powerPlayGoals": 4, "powerPlayPoints": 8, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.155172, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 116, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480003, "player": "Jesper Boqvist", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 643, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478542, "player": "Evan Rodrigues", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 200 }, { "player_id": 8481721, "player": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 706, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 88 }, { "player_id": 8482146, "player": "Luke Evangelista", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 571, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481559, "player": "Jack Hughes", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 995, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8480002, "player": "Nico Hischier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 775, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 181 }, { "player_id": 8483695, "player": "Amadeus Lombardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 730, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477511, "player": "Anthony Mantha", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 700, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479407, "player": "Jesper Bratt", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8478414, "player": "Timo Meier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 736, "PP_seconds": 42, "SH_seconds": 100 }, { "player_id": 8479996, "player": "Cody Glass", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 620, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 212 }, { "player_id": 8482110, "player": "Dawson Mercer", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 602, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 223 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Seamus Casey", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-02T17:31Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8478399, "incumbent": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T17:29Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": 8478399, "player": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 869, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 302 }, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478399, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478399/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "19:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 55, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 44, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.038462, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 52, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 9, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Switzerland" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "26:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "19:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 48, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 16, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 60, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "19:54", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Switzerland", "cs": "\u0160v\u00fdcarsko", "de": "Schweiz", "es": "Suiza", "fi": "Sveitsi", "fr": "Suisse", "sk": "\u0160vaj\u010diarsko", "sv": "Schweiz" }, "teamName": { "default": "Switzerland", "cs": "\u0160v\u00fdcarsko", "de": "Schweiz", "es": "Suiza", "fi": "Sveitsi", "fr": "Suisse", "sk": "\u0160vaj\u010diarsko", "sv": "Schweiz" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "19:10", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8475455, "player": "Brenden Dillon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 861, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 80 }, { "player_id": 8476462, "player": "Dougie Hamilton", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 975, "PP_seconds": 50, "SH_seconds": 305 }, { "player_id": 8477488, "player": "Brett Pesce", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 944, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 316 }, { "player_id": 8480990, "player": "Declan Chisholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 862, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482684, "player": "Luke Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1013, "PP_seconds": 124, "SH_seconds": 236 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020090, "team": "DET", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 933, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 933.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Chiarot", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8475279, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 24, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 24.0, "shTimeOnIce": 294, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 294.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ben Chiarot", "teamAbbrev": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1251, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1251.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.33333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 939, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 939.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Faulk", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 82, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 82.0, "playerId": 8475753, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 113, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 113.0, "shTimeOnIce": 43, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 43.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Justin Faulk", "teamAbbrev": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1095, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1095.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.55555 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 699, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 699.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Englund", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8477971, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 159, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 159.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Andreas Englund", "teamAbbrev": "DET", "timeOnIce": 858, "timeOnIcePerGame": 858.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.47058 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 870, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 870.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Larkin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 107, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 107.0, "playerId": 8477946, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 356, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 356.0, "shTimeOnIce": 134, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 134.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Larkin", "teamAbbrev": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1360, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1360.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.30769 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 772, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 772.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Copp", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 100, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 100.0, "playerId": 8477429, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 119, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 119.0, "shTimeOnIce": 267, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 267.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Andrew Copp", "teamAbbrev": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1158, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1158.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.53846 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1138, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1138.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Seider", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 135, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 135.0, "playerId": 8481542, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 340, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 340.0, "shTimeOnIce": 295, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 295.0, "shifts": 29, "shiftsPerGame": 29.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Moritz Seider", "teamAbbrev": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1773, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1773.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 61.13793 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 811, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 811.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484794, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 96, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 96.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "teamAbbrev": "DET", "timeOnIce": 907, "timeOnIcePerGame": 907.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.38888 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 542, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 542.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Danielson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484160, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 11, "shiftsPerGame": 11.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nate Danielson", "teamAbbrev": "DET", "timeOnIce": 543, "timeOnIcePerGame": 543.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.36363 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 974, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 974.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "DeBrincat", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 113, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 113.0, "playerId": 8479337, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 336, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 336.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Alex DeBrincat", "teamAbbrev": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1310, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1310.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.95652 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 780, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 780.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Kolesar", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MTL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8478434, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, 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"Justin Faulk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 939, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 43 }, { "player_id": 8477971, "player": "Andreas Englund", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 699, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 159 }, { "player_id": 8477946, "player": "Dylan Larkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 870, "PP_seconds": 356, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 772, "PP_seconds": 119, "SH_seconds": 267 }, { "player_id": 8481542, "player": "Moritz Seider", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1138, "PP_seconds": 340, "SH_seconds": 295 }, { "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 811, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484160, "player": "Nate Danielson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 542, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 974, "PP_seconds": 336, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { 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"SH_seconds": 15 }, { "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 333, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14230, "PP_seconds": 2270, "SH_seconds": 1920 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020075, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DET", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020075/boxscore", "playerId": 8480326, "name": { "default": "S. 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Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020075/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8478891, "player": "Mason Appleton", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8477456, "player": "J.T. Compher", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8484160, "player": "Nate Danielson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8480326, "player": "Sheldon Dries", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8484471, "player": "Emmitt Finnie", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8483464, "player": "Marco Kasper", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8478434, "player": "Keegan Kolesar", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8477946, "player": "Dylan Larkin", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8482802, "player": "Carter Mazur", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8479992, "player": "Michael Rasmussen", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8482078, "player": "Lucas Raymond", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8480879, "player": "Jacob Bernard-Docker", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8475279, "player": "Ben Chiarot", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8477971, "player": "Andreas Englund", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8475753, "player": "Justin Faulk", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8481607, "player": "Albert Johansson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8483679, "player": "Anton Johansson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8484223, "player": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8481542, "player": "Moritz Seider", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8482171, "player": "William Wallinder", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8476434, "player": "John Gibson", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" }, { "team": "DET", "player_id": 8480193, "player": "Daniil Tarasov", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DET/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "abbreviation": "DET", "player": "Mason Appleton", "player_id": "3942043", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T21:08Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/5/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.266012+00:00" }, { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "abbreviation": "DET", "player": "Marco Kasper", "player_id": "5080152", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T15:39Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/5/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.266012+00:00" }, { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "abbreviation": "DET", "player": "J.T. Compher", "player_id": "3041995", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-08T18:08Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/5/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.266012+00:00" }, { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "abbreviation": "DET", "player": "Simon Edvinsson", "player_id": "4874720", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-09-30T14:09Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/5/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.266012+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475279, 8475753, 8476434, 8477429, 8477456, 8477946, 8477971, 8478042, 8478434, 8478891, 8479337, 8479992, 8480193, 8480326, 8480879, 8481542, 8481607, 8482078, 8482171, 8482802, 8483464, 8483679, 8484160, 8484223, 8484471, 8484794 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.03669, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8475279, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 13, "assists": 9, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 109, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1273.9382, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "Ben Chiarot", "goals": 4, "evPoints": 12, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.03225, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 78, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8475753, "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "points": 32, "assists": 28, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 124, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1347.0256, "ppGoals": 1, "ppPoints": 12, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 3, "skaterFullName": "Justin Faulk", "goals": 4, "evPoints": 20, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.14705, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 56, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477429, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 23, "assists": 13, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 68, "timeOnIcePerGame": 882.1428, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 9, "skaterFullName": "Andrew Copp", "goals": 10, "evPoints": 21, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.11224, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 76, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477456, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 32, "assists": 21, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 98, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1000.8684, "ppGoals": 5, "ppPoints": 9, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 6, "skaterFullName": "J.T. Compher", "goals": 11, "evPoints": 23, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.1282, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477946, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 70, "assists": 40, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 234, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1204.2439, "ppGoals": 13, "ppPoints": 27, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 17, "skaterFullName": "Dylan Larkin", "goals": 30, "evPoints": 43, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.05882, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 35, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477971, "teamAbbrevs": "LAK,NSH", "points": 3, "assists": 2, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 17, "timeOnIcePerGame": 795.6857, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 1, "skaterFullName": "Andreas Englund", "goals": 1, "evPoints": 3, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.09493, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 67, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478042, "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "points": 27, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 158, "timeOnIcePerGame": 899.791, "ppGoals": 1, "ppPoints": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 14, "skaterFullName": "Viktor Arvidsson", "goals": 15, "evPoints": 24, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.13636, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478434, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "points": 30, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "R", "shots": 88, "timeOnIcePerGame": 791.6341, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 12, "skaterFullName": "Keegan Kolesar", "goals": 12, "evPoints": 29, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.09345, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 71, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478891, "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "points": 22, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 107, "timeOnIcePerGame": 889.8732, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 10, "skaterFullName": "Mason Appleton", "goals": 10, "evPoints": 21, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.15983, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8479337, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 70, "assists": 31, "positionCode": "R", "shots": 244, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1072.2682, "ppGoals": 13, "ppPoints": 29, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 26, "skaterFullName": "Alex DeBrincat", "goals": 39, "evPoints": 41, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.11111, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 77, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8479992, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 21, "assists": 10, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 99, "timeOnIcePerGame": 804.6883, "ppGoals": 2, "ppPoints": 4, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 9, "skaterFullName": "Michael Rasmussen", "goals": 11, "evPoints": 17, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0625, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 40, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8480879, "teamAbbrevs": "OTT,BUF", "points": 8, "assists": 6, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 32, "timeOnIcePerGame": 816.9, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 2, "skaterFullName": "Jacob Bernard-Docker", "goals": 2, "evPoints": 8, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.04938, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8481542, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 46, "assists": 38, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 162, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1504.3292, "ppGoals": 4, "ppPoints": 24, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "Moritz Seider", "goals": 8, "evPoints": 22, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0625, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 61, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8481607, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 9, "assists": 6, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 48, "timeOnIcePerGame": 981.6557, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 3, "skaterFullName": "Albert Johansson", "goals": 3, "evPoints": 9, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.14062, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8482078, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 80, "assists": 53, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 192, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1127.0, "ppGoals": 8, "ppPoints": 37, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 18, "skaterFullName": "Lucas Raymond", "goals": 27, "evPoints": 42, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": null, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8482802, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 0, "assists": 0, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 0, "timeOnIcePerGame": 70.0, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 0, "skaterFullName": "Carter Mazur", 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"gamesPlayed": 68, "lastName": "Sandin-Pellikka", "otTimeOnIce": 453, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 22.65, "playerId": 8484223, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 7100, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 104.41176, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 1172, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 17.23529, "shifts": 1390, "shiftsPerGame": 20.44117, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 66140, "timeOnIcePerGame": 972.64705, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.58273 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 66112, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 806.2439, "gamesPlayed": 82, "lastName": "Finnie", "otTimeOnIce": 488, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 23.23809, "playerId": 8484471, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 6865, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 83.71951, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 3283, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 40.03658, "shifts": 1639, "shiftsPerGame": 19.9878, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Emmitt Finnie", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 76260, "timeOnIcePerGame": 930.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.52837 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 9630, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 687.85714, "gamesPlayed": 14, "lastName": "Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484794, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 884, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 63.14285, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 239, "shiftsPerGame": 17.07142, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 10514, "timeOnIcePerGame": 751.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.99163 } ], "20262027": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 4667, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 933.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Chiarot", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8475279, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 42, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 817, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 163.4, "shifts": 116, "shiftsPerGame": 23.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ben Chiarot", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 5526, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1105.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.63793 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4807, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 961.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Faulk", "otTimeOnIce": 82, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 82.0, "playerId": 8475753, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 591, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 118.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 388, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 77.6, "shifts": 130, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Justin Faulk", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 5786, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1157.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.50769 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4194, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 838.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Copp", "otTimeOnIce": 100, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 100.0, "playerId": 8477429, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 819, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 163.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 931, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 186.2, "shifts": 131, "shiftsPerGame": 26.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Andrew Copp", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 5944, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1188.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.37404 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1452, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 726.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Compher", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477456, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 3, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 304, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 152.0, "shifts": 39, "shiftsPerGame": 19.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "J.T. Compher", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1759, "timeOnIcePerGame": 879.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.10256 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2563, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 854.33333, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Larkin", "otTimeOnIce": 107, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 107.0, "playerId": 8477946, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 834, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 278.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 303, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 101.0, "shifts": 73, "shiftsPerGame": 24.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Larkin", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 3700, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1233.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.68493 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1134, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 567.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Englund", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8477971, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 159, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.5, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 13.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Andreas Englund", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1293, "timeOnIcePerGame": 646.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.88888 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4263, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 852.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Arvidsson", "otTimeOnIce": 82, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 82.0, "playerId": 8478042, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1260, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 252.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 103, "shiftsPerGame": 20.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Viktor Arvidsson", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 5523, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1104.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.62135 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3488, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 697.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Kolesar", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8478434, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 372, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 74.4, "shifts": 97, "shiftsPerGame": 19.4, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Keegan Kolesar", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 3873, "timeOnIcePerGame": 774.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.92783 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 945, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 472.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Appleton", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478891, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 236, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 118.0, "shifts": 33, "shiftsPerGame": 16.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mason Appleton", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1181, "timeOnIcePerGame": 590.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 35.78787 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4641, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 928.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "DeBrincat", "otTimeOnIce": 113, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 113.0, "playerId": 8479337, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1320, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 264.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 15, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.0, "shifts": 111, "shiftsPerGame": 22.2, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Alex DeBrincat", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 5976, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1195.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.83783 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3591, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 718.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Rasmussen", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479992, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 533, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 106.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 949, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 189.8, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Michael Rasmussen", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 5073, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1014.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.11304 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1143, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 571.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Dries", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480326, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 102, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 51.0, "shifts": 32, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Sheldon Dries", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1245, "timeOnIcePerGame": 622.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.90625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5365, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1073.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Seider", "otTimeOnIce": 135, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 135.0, "playerId": 8481542, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1364, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 272.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 885, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 177.0, "shifts": 144, "shiftsPerGame": 28.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Moritz Seider", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 7614, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1522.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.875 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4297, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 859.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Johansson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481607, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 19, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 744, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 148.8, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Albert Johansson", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 5060, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1012.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4607, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 921.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Raymond", "otTimeOnIce": 105, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 105.0, "playerId": 8482078, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1374, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 274.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 159, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 31.8, "shifts": 113, "shiftsPerGame": 22.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Lucas Raymond", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 6140, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1228.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.33628 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1485, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 742.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Wallinder", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482171, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 158, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.0, "shifts": 40, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "William Wallinder", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1643, "timeOnIcePerGame": 821.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.075 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1141, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 570.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Mazur", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482802, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 29, "shiftsPerGame": 14.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Carter Mazur", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 1141, "timeOnIcePerGame": 570.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.34482 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 544, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 544.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Kasper", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483464, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 57, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 57.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 49, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 49.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Marco Kasper", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 650, "timeOnIcePerGame": 650.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4328, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 865.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Johansson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483679, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 11, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 480, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 96.0, "shifts": 102, "shiftsPerGame": 20.4, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Anton Johansson", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 4819, "timeOnIcePerGame": 963.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.24509 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2650, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 530.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Danielson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484160, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 67, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 13.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 28, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.6, "shifts": 68, "shiftsPerGame": 13.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nate Danielson", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 2745, "timeOnIcePerGame": 549.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.36764 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2516, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 629.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Sandin-Pellikka", "otTimeOnIce": 83, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 83.0, "playerId": 8484223, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 375, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 93.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 250, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 62.5, "shifts": 69, "shiftsPerGame": 17.25, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Axel Sandin-Pellikka", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 3141, "timeOnIcePerGame": 785.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.52173 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4065, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 813.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Finnie", "otTimeOnIce": 93, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 93.0, "playerId": 8484471, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 495, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 99.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 399, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.8, "shifts": 106, "shiftsPerGame": 21.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Emmitt Finnie", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 4959, "timeOnIcePerGame": 991.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.78301 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3906, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 781.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484794, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 368, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 73.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 93, "shiftsPerGame": 18.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "timeOnIce": 4274, "timeOnIcePerGame": 854.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.95698 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892488", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.8004878048780486, 3.0746341463414635 ], "Primary": [ 2.8223307188555924, 3.017177584460703 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.926825, 2.999995 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8478891, "incumbent": "Mason Appleton", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T21:08Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478891, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478891/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "14:50", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.454545, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 71, "goals": 10, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 22, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.093458, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 107, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "14:51", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.333333, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 16, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "13:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.272727, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 65, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 44, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.095238, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 63, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:51", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477946, "player": "Dylan Larkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 870, "PP_seconds": 356, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 772, "PP_seconds": 119, "SH_seconds": 267 }, { "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 811, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484160, "player": "Nate Danielson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 542, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 974, "PP_seconds": 336, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478434, "player": "Keegan Kolesar", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 780, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8482078, "player": "Lucas Raymond", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 913, "PP_seconds": 334, "SH_seconds": 24 }, { "player_id": 8480326, "player": "Sheldon Dries", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 506, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 68 }, { "player_id": 8484471, "player": "Emmitt Finnie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 882, "PP_seconds": 97, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8479992, "player": "Michael Rasmussen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 121, "SH_seconds": 287 }, { "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 333, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8483464, "incumbent": "Marco Kasper", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T15:39Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8483464, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483464/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 18, "avgToi": "15:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.448882, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 34, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 37, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.131034, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 145, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 7, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Grand Rapids Griffins" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OGQ", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Austria" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 8, "points": 7, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 13, "teamName": { "default": "Austria" } }, { "assists": 10, "avgToi": "13:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.514541, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 33, "plusMinus": -20, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.068702, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 131, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:50", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.642857, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 5, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477946, "player": "Dylan Larkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 870, "PP_seconds": 356, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 772, "PP_seconds": 119, "SH_seconds": 267 }, { "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 811, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484160, "player": "Nate Danielson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 542, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 974, "PP_seconds": 336, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478434, "player": "Keegan Kolesar", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 780, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8482078, "player": "Lucas Raymond", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 913, "PP_seconds": 334, "SH_seconds": 24 }, { "player_id": 8480326, "player": "Sheldon Dries", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 506, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 68 }, { "player_id": 8484471, "player": "Emmitt Finnie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 882, "PP_seconds": 97, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8479992, "player": "Michael Rasmussen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 121, "SH_seconds": 287 }, { "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 333, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8477456, "incumbent": "J.T. Compher", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-08T18:08Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8477456, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477456/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 21, "avgToi": "16:41", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.451135, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 76, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 32, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 9, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.112245, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 98, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "15:40", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.508806, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 27, "plusMinus": -13, "points": 28, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.115789, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 95, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "14:40", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.423077, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Red Wings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Detroit Red Wings", "fr": "Red Wings de Detroit" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Detroit", "fr": "de Detroit" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477946, "player": "Dylan Larkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 870, "PP_seconds": 356, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8477429, "player": "Andrew Copp", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 772, "PP_seconds": 119, "SH_seconds": 267 }, { "player_id": 8484794, "player": "Michael Brandsegg-Nyg\u00e5rd", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 811, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484160, "player": "Nate Danielson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 542, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479337, "player": "Alex DeBrincat", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 974, "PP_seconds": 336, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478434, "player": "Keegan Kolesar", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 780, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8482078, "player": "Lucas Raymond", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 913, "PP_seconds": 334, "SH_seconds": 24 }, { "player_id": 8480326, "player": "Sheldon Dries", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 506, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 68 }, { "player_id": 8484471, "player": "Emmitt Finnie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 882, "PP_seconds": 97, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8479992, "player": "Michael Rasmussen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 121, "SH_seconds": 287 }, { "player_id": 8478042, "player": "Viktor Arvidsson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 333, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Simon Edvinsson", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-09-30T14:09Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings", "market": { "id": "401892488", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892488", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.156562+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 230.0, "away_line_price": -285.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 110.0, "under_price": -130.0, "home_ml": -115.0, "away_ml": -105.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.2741463414634149, "combined": 5.875121951219512, "spread_buffer": -1.2258536585365851, "total_difference": -0.6248780487804879 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.2741463414634149, "combined": 5.875121951219512, "spread_buffer": -1.2258536585365851, "total_difference": -0.6248780487804879 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.19484686560511078, "combined": 5.839508303316295, "spread_buffer": -1.3051531343948892, "total_difference": -0.6604916966837049 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.19484686560511078, "combined": 5.839508303316295, "spread_buffer": -1.3051531343948892, "total_difference": -0.6604916966837049 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.07317000000000018, "combined": 5.92682, "spread_buffer": -1.4268299999999998, "total_difference": -0.5731799999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.07317000000000018, "combined": 5.92682, "spread_buffer": -1.4268299999999998, "total_difference": -0.5731799999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.07317000000000018, "combined": 5.92682, "spread_buffer": -1.4268299999999998, "total_difference": -0.5731799999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.07317000000000018, "combined": 5.92682, "spread_buffer": -1.4268299999999998, "total_difference": -0.5731799999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892489", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892489", "date": "2026-10-13T22:15Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "26", "away_name": "Florida Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "29", "home_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.885303314571607, 3.277884615384615 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.885303314571607, 3.277884615384615 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.885303314571607, 3.277884615384615 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.3658536585365852 ], "current_rates": [ 2.0, 2.8333333333333335 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.0853658536585367, 3.0853658536585367 ], "current_rates": [ 3.25, 3.5 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.030485, 5.0304850000000005 ], "home": [ 1.1707299999999998, 5.17073 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9631630642318147, 3.201248898812138 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9631630642318147, 3.201248898812138 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9631630642318147, 3.201248898812138 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.030485, 5.0304850000000005 ], "home": [ 1.1707299999999998, 5.17073 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13, "official_team_name": "Florida Panthers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29, "official_team_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.030485, 5.0304850000000005 ], "home": [ 1.1707299999999998, 5.17073 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.34146, "official_team_id": 13, "official_team_name": "Florida Panthers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29, "official_team_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.030485, 5.0304850000000005 ], "home": [ 1.1707299999999998, 5.17073 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "FLA: Current reference already omits Barkov/Marchand/Gadjovich. Brady Tkachuk recent actual participation supersedes stale DTD flag; Markstrom exit and Schmid relief remain separate goalie uncertainty. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. CBJ: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 4 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Nationwide Arena; listed 2026-10-13T22:15Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892489", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Florida Panthers", "home": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "start_et": "2026-10-13T18:15:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T22:15Z", "venue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 6:15 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 6:15 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Florida Panthers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892485", "date": "2026-10-12T17:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "26", "away_name": "Florida Panthers", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "2", "home_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20738.708333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "previous_game": { "id": "401892477", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1839", "fullName": "Enterprise Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Louis", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "29", "away_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "St. Louis Blues", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020091, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=800&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/26/roster", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/29/roster", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "tu": { "id": "401892489", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892489", "date": "2026-10-13T22:15Z", "completed": 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"player": "Niko Mikkola", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 203 }, { "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 811, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475179, "player": "Dmitry Kulikov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 813, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 59 }, { "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 224, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 43, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477495, "player": "Seth Jones", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 979, "PP_seconds": 258, "SH_seconds": 198 }, { "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 843, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 225, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475462, "player": "Radko Gudas", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 705, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8478055, "player": "Gustav Forsling", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1203, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 243 }, { "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 755, "PP_seconds": 67, "SH_seconds": 175 }, { "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 536, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 622, "PP_seconds": 76, "SH_seconds": 193 }, { "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 466, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 139 }, { "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 534, "PP_seconds": 33, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8477932, "player": "Aaron Ekblad", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1046, "PP_seconds": 40, "SH_seconds": 139 }, { "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 32 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14300, "PP_seconds": 1584, "SH_seconds": 1768 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8480801, "name": { "default": "B. 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Hathaway" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:05", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8477409, "name": { "default": "C. Verhaeghe" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:37", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8480185, "name": { "default": "E. 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Gudas" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:27", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8475179, "name": { "default": "D. Kulikov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:32", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8478055, "name": { "default": "G. Forsling" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:10", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "FLA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8478859, "name": { "default": "N. Mikkola" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:48", "shifts": 26 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.885303314571607, 3.277884615384615 ], "Primary": [ 2.9631630642318147, 3.201248898812138 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Current reference already omits Barkov/Marchand/Gadjovich. Brady Tkachuk recent actual participation supersedes stale DTD flag; Markstrom exit and Schmid relief remain separate goalie uncertainty. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-12", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477493, "player": "Aleksander Barkov", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8479981, "player": "Jonah Gadjovich", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8473419, "player": "Brad Marchand", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8484304, "player": "Uvis Balinskis", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477932, "player": "Aaron Ekblad", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478055, "player": "Gustav Forsling", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8475462, "player": "Radko Gudas", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8477495, "player": "Seth Jones", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8475179, "player": "Dmitry Kulikov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8478859, "player": "Niko Mikkola", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8474593, "player": "Jacob Markstrom", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" }, { "team": "FLA", "player_id": 8481033, "player": "Akira Schmid", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/FLA/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Florida Panthers", "abbreviation": "FLA", "player": "Aleksander Barkov", "player_id": "3041970", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T18:38Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/26/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.279399+00:00" }, { "team": "Florida Panthers", "abbreviation": "FLA", "player": "Jonah Gadjovich", "player_id": "4233890", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-17T20:53Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/26/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.279399+00:00" }, { "team": "Florida Panthers", "abbreviation": "FLA", "player": "Brad Marchand", "player_id": "3852", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T21:11Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/26/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.279399+00:00" }, { "team": "Florida Panthers", "abbreviation": "FLA", "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "player_id": "4319858", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-09-28T16:04Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/26/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.279399+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8473419, 8474189, 8474593, 8475179, 8475462, 8477409, 8477493, 8477495, 8477903, 8477932, 8477933, 8477935, 8478043, 8478055, 8478147, 8478859, 8479314, 8479981, 8480185, 8480801, 8481033, 8482113, 8483771, 8484304 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.11855, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 71, "otGoals": 2, "playerId": 8473419, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS,FLA", "points": 51, "assists": 28, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 194, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1099.4507, "ppGoals": 5, "ppPoints": 13, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 18, "skaterFullName": "Brad Marchand", "goals": 23, "evPoints": 37, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.09615, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 80, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8474189, "teamAbbrevs": "PIT,WSH", "points": 22, "assists": 12, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 104, "timeOnIcePerGame": 797.4875, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 10, "skaterFullName": "Lars Eller", "goals": 10, "evPoints": 21, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0625, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 70, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8475179, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "points": 13, "assists": 9, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 64, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1156.1, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "Dmitry Kulikov", "goals": 4, "evPoints": 12, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.01123, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8475462, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "points": 16, "assists": 15, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 89, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1191.9382, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 1, "skaterFullName": "Radko Gudas", "goals": 1, "evPoints": 16, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.08264, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477409, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "points": 53, "assists": 33, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 242, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1072.1481, "ppGoals": 5, "ppPoints": 16, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 15, "skaterFullName": "Carter Verhaeghe", "goals": 20, "evPoints": 37, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.13422, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 67, "otGoals": 2, "playerId": 8477493, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "points": 71, "assists": 51, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 149, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1215.4776, "ppGoals": 9, "ppPoints": 28, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 4, "evGoals": 10, "skaterFullName": "Aleksander Barkov", "goals": 20, "evPoints": 39, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.06976, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 63, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0283, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 56, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477932, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "points": 33, "assists": 30, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 106, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1410.75, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 11, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 2, "evGoals": 3, "skaterFullName": "Aaron Ekblad", "goals": 3, "evPoints": 20, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.18309, "shGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 79, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477933, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "points": 81, "assists": 42, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 213, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1230.1392, "ppGoals": 13, "ppPoints": 30, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 6, "evGoals": 21, "skaterFullName": "Sam Reinhart", "goals": 39, "evPoints": 45, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.10373, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 76, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8477935, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "points": 51, "assists": 26, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 241, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1047.2105, "ppGoals": 7, "ppPoints": 11, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 18, "skaterFullName": "Sam Bennett", "goals": 25, "evPoints": 40, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.08, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 60, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478043, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "points": 7, "assists": 3, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 50, "timeOnIcePerGame": 592.5666, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "Sam Lafferty", "goals": 4, "evPoints": 7, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.05641, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 80, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8478055, "teamAbbrevs": 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"powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.133333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 45, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "14:54", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.538462, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 811, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 224, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 43, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 843, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 225, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 755, "PP_seconds": 67, "SH_seconds": 175 }, { "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 536, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 622, "PP_seconds": 76, "SH_seconds": 193 }, { "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 466, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 139 }, { "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 534, "PP_seconds": 33, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 32 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8479981, "incumbent": "Jonah Gadjovich", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-17T20:53Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8479981, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479981/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "8:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.6, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 42, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 60, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.093023, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 43, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "7:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 16, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 33, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "7:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 7, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 811, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 224, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 43, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 843, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 225, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 755, "PP_seconds": 67, "SH_seconds": 175 }, { "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 536, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 622, "PP_seconds": 76, "SH_seconds": 193 }, { "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 466, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 139 }, { "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 534, "PP_seconds": 33, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 32 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8473419, "incumbent": "Brad Marchand", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T21:11Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8473419, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8473419/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 26, "avgToi": "18:26", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.416667, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 61, "goals": 21, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 2, "pim": 62, "plusMinus": -8, "points": 47, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 13, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.12, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 175, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Bruins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Boston Bruins", "fr": "Bruins de Boston" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Boston", "fr": "de Boston" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "17:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.105263, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 19, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "11:35", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 5, "teamName": { "default": "Canada" } }, { "assists": 10, "avgToi": "16:40", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 23, "goals": 10, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 2, "pim": 48, "plusMinus": 17, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.212766, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 47, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 27, "avgToi": "17:44", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.125, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 52, "goals": 27, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 38, "plusMinus": -16, "points": 54, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 20, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.195652, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 138, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "9:31", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canada", "cs": "Kanada", "de": "Kanada", "es": "Canad\u00e1", "fi": "Kanada", "sk": "Kanada", "sv": "Kanada" }, "teamName": { "default": "Canada", "cs": "Kanada", "de": "Kanada", "es": "Canad\u00e1", "fi": "Kanada", "sk": "Kanada", "sv": "Kanada" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "11:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 811, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 224, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 43, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 843, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 225, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 755, "PP_seconds": 67, "SH_seconds": 175 }, { "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 536, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 622, "PP_seconds": 76, "SH_seconds": 193 }, { "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 466, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 139 }, { "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 534, "PP_seconds": 33, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 32 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8480801, "incumbent": "Brady Tkachuk", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-09-28T16:04Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": 8480801, "player": "Brady Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 225, "SH_seconds": 0 }, "history": [ { "player_id": 8480801, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480801/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 26, "avgToi": "18:14", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.512968, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 72, "goals": 29, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 4, "pim": 123, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 55, "powerPlayGoals": 14, "powerPlayPoints": 23, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.097973, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 296, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "11:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.66, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 5, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 15, "teamName": { "default": "United States" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "18:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.307692, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.181818, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 22, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 37, "avgToi": "16:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.575658, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 60, "goals": 22, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 71, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 59, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 20, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.099548, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 221, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "14:34", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.7, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.19, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 16, "teamCommonName": { "default": "USA", "es": "Estados Unidos", "fi": "Yhdysvaltojen", "fr": "\u00c9tats-Unis" }, "teamName": { "default": "USA" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "21:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.575, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 13, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 11, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "17:15", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.612903, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 9, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 15, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Panthers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Florida Panthers", "fr": "Panthers de la Floride" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Florida", "fr": "de la Floride" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478043, "player": "Sam Lafferty", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8479314, "player": "Matthew Tkachuk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 811, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477409, "player": "Carter Verhaeghe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 224, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477935, "player": "Sam Bennett", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 43, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477933, "player": "Sam Reinhart", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 843, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8480185, "player": "Eetu Luostarinen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 755, "PP_seconds": 67, "SH_seconds": 175 }, { "player_id": 8478147, "player": "Bokondji Imama", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 536, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482113, "player": "Anton Lundell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 622, "PP_seconds": 76, "SH_seconds": 193 }, { "player_id": 8477903, "player": "Garnet Hathaway", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 466, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 139 }, { "player_id": 8474189, "player": "Lars Eller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 534, "PP_seconds": 33, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8483771, "player": "Sandis Vilmanis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 32 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020091, "team": "CBJ", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 768, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 768.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Christiansen", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481161, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jake Christiansen", "teamAbbrev": 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41.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Carson Soucy", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 695, "timeOnIcePerGame": 695.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.57894 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 984, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 984.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Johnson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482660, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 37, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 37.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Kent Johnson", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 1021, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1021.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.54166 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1000, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1000.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Monahan", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, 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"gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Voronkov", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481716, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 85, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 85.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dmitri Voronkov", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 759, "timeOnIcePerGame": 759.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.64705 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1086, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1086.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Gudbranson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475790, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 89, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 89.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Erik Gudbranson", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 1175, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1175.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.95833 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 815, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 815.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Garland", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478856, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 83, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 83.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Conor Garland", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 898, "timeOnIcePerGame": 898.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.26315 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 842, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 842.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Knies", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482720, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 38, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 38.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Knies", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 880, "timeOnIcePerGame": 880.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.90476 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 579, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 579.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Lomberg", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479066, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 13, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ryan Lomberg", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 579, "timeOnIcePerGame": 579.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.53846 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1068, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1068.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Fantilli", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484166, "positionCode": "C", 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"Werenski", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478460, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 38, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 38.0, "shTimeOnIce": 53, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 53.0, "shifts": 35, "shiftsPerGame": 35.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zach Werenski", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 1693, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1693.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.37142 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1132, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1132.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Mateychuk", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483485, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 82, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "shTimeOnIce": 59, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 59.0, "shifts": 30, "shiftsPerGame": 30.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Denton Mateychuk", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 1273, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1273.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.43333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 880, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 880.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Nichushkin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477501, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 82, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "shTimeOnIce": 26, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 26.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Valeri Nichushkin", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 988, "timeOnIcePerGame": 988.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.90909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1482, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1482.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Severson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476923, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 30, "shiftsPerGame": 30.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Damon Severson", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 1482, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1482.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.4 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 877, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 877.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Sillinger", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "STL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482705, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 83, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 83.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Sillinger", "teamAbbrev": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 960, "timeOnIcePerGame": 960.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.63636 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8481161, "player": "Jake Christiansen", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 768, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478046, "player": "Danton Heinen", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 714, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 10 }, { "player_id": 8477369, "player": "Carson Soucy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8482660, "player": "Kent Johnson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 984, "PP_seconds": 37, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477497, "player": "Sean Monahan", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1000, "PP_seconds": 82, "SH_seconds": 35 }, { "player_id": 8475745, "player": "Charlie Coyle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 881, "PP_seconds": 35, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8481716, "player": "Dmitri Voronkov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 674, "PP_seconds": 85, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475790, "player": "Erik Gudbranson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1086, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8478856, "player": "Conor Garland", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 815, "PP_seconds": 83, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482720, "player": "Matthew Knies", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 38, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479066, "player": "Ryan Lomberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 579, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484166, "player": "Adam Fantilli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1068, "PP_seconds": 38, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8479671, "player": "Mathieu Olivier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 716, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478460, "player": "Zach Werenski", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1602, "PP_seconds": 38, "SH_seconds": 53 }, { "player_id": 8483485, "player": "Denton Mateychuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1132, "PP_seconds": 82, "SH_seconds": 59 }, { "player_id": 8477501, "player": "Valeri Nichushkin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 880, "PP_seconds": 82, "SH_seconds": 26 }, { "player_id": 8476923, "player": "Damon Severson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1482, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482705, "player": "Cole Sillinger", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 877, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 83 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 16754, "PP_seconds": 600, "SH_seconds": 480 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CBJ", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8475745, "name": { "default": "C. 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Christiansen" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:48", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CBJ", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8483485, "name": { "default": "D. Mateychuk" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:13", "shifts": 30 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CBJ", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8477369, "name": { "default": "C. Soucy" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:35", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CBJ", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8478460, "name": { "default": "Z. Werenski" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "28:13", "shifts": 35 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CBJ", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8475790, "name": { "default": "E. Gudbranson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:35", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CBJ", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8476923, "name": { "default": "D. Severson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:42", "shifts": 30 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.885303314571607, 3.277884615384615 ], "Primary": [ 2.9631630642318147, 3.201248898812138 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8475745, "player": "Charlie Coyle", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8483432, "player": "Luca Del Bel Belluz", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8484166, "player": "Adam Fantilli", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8478856, "player": "Conor Garland", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8478046, "player": "Danton Heinen", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8482660, "player": "Kent Johnson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8482720, "player": "Matthew Knies", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8479066, "player": "Ryan Lomberg", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8477497, "player": "Sean Monahan", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8477501, "player": "Valeri Nichushkin", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8479671, "player": "Mathieu Olivier", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8482705, "player": "Cole Sillinger", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8481716, "player": "Dmitri Voronkov", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8482126, "player": "Emil Andrae", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8481161, "player": "Jake Christiansen", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8479371, "player": "Dante Fabbro", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8475790, "player": "Erik Gudbranson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8483485, "player": "Denton Mateychuk", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8478500, "player": "Ivan Provorov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8477369, "player": "Carson Soucy", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8478460, "player": "Zach Werenski", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8482982, "player": "Jet Greaves", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" }, { "team": "CBJ", "player_id": 8475660, "player": "Cam Talbot", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CBJ/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "abbreviation": "CBJ", "player": "Ivan Provorov", "player_id": "3899939", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T15:21Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/29/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" }, { "team": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "abbreviation": "CBJ", "player": "Brendan Smith", "player_id": "4973", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-01-08T16:26Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/29/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475660, 8475745, 8475790, 8476923, 8477369, 8477497, 8477501, 8478046, 8478460, 8478500, 8478856, 8479066, 8479371, 8479671, 8481161, 8481716, 8482126, 8482660, 8482705, 8482720, 8482982, 8483432, 8483485, 8484166 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.14782, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 83, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8475745, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS,COL", "points": 35, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 115, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1019.3614, "ppGoals": 3, "ppPoints": 7, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 13, "skaterFullName": "Charlie Coyle", "goals": 17, "evPoints": 27, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 16, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8475790, "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "points": 4, "assists": 4, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 12, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1066.25, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 0, "skaterFullName": "Erik Gudbranson", "goals": 0, "evPoints": 4, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.06593, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 70, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8476923, "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "points": 25, "assists": 19, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 91, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1143.2285, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 6, "skaterFullName": "Damon Severson", "goals": 6, "evPoints": 25, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.04938, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 75, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477369, "teamAbbrevs": "VAN,NYR", "points": 13, "assists": 9, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 81, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1074.9066, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "Carson Soucy", "goals": 4, "evPoints": 13, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.14843, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 54, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477497, "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "points": 57, "assists": 38, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 128, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1140.8888, "ppGoals": 7, "ppPoints": 14, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 3, "evGoals": 12, "skaterFullName": "Sean Monahan", "goals": 19, "evPoints": 40, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.17796, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 43, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477501, "teamAbbrevs": "COL", "points": 34, "assists": 13, "positionCode": "R", "shots": 118, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1184.3953, "ppGoals": 5, "ppPoints": 8, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 16, "skaterFullName": "Valeri Nichushkin", "goals": 21, "evPoints": 26, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.11111, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 79, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478046, "teamAbbrevs": "VAN,PIT", "points": 29, "assists": 20, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 81, "timeOnIcePerGame": 806.5696, "ppGoals": 1, "ppPoints": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 7, "skaterFullName": "Danton Heinen", "goals": 9, "evPoints": 26, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.07718, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 2, "playerId": 8478460, "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "points": 82, "assists": 59, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 298, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1604.716, "ppGoals": 5, "ppPoints": 25, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 3, "evGoals": 17, "skaterFullName": "Zach Werenski", "goals": 23, "evPoints": 54, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.07, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478500, "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "points": 33, "assists": 26, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 100, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1401.2317, "ppGoals": 1, "ppPoints": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 3, "evGoals": 5, "skaterFullName": "Ivan Provorov", "goals": 7, "evPoints": 27, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.11111, "shGoals": 0, 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"game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.10112, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 68, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8479371, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH,CBJ", "points": 26, "assists": 17, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 89, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1253.7352, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 9, "skaterFullName": "Dante Fabbro", "goals": 9, "evPoints": 26, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.16216, "shGoals": 1, 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"timeOnIcePerShift": 43.35483 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3380, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 845.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Nichushkin", "otTimeOnIce": 69, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 69.0, "playerId": 8477501, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 305, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 76.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 216, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 54.0, "shifts": 86, "shiftsPerGame": 21.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Valeri Nichushkin", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 3901, "timeOnIcePerGame": 975.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.36046 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2612, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 653.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Heinen", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8478046, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 249, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 62.25, "shifts": 67, "shiftsPerGame": 16.75, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Danton Heinen", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 2861, "timeOnIcePerGame": 715.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.70149 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5743, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1435.75, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Werenski", "otTimeOnIce": 139, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 139.0, "playerId": 8478460, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 766, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 191.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 589, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 147.25, "shifts": 132, "shiftsPerGame": 33.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zach Werenski", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 7098, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1774.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.77272 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2710, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 677.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Garland", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8478856, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 268, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 67.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 73, "shiftsPerGame": 18.25, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Conor Garland", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 2978, "timeOnIcePerGame": 744.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.79452 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2241, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 560.25, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Lomberg", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479066, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 54, "shiftsPerGame": 13.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ryan Lomberg", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 2241, "timeOnIcePerGame": 560.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3263, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 815.75, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Olivier", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479671, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 243, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 60.75, "shifts": 79, "shiftsPerGame": 19.75, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mathieu Olivier", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 3506, "timeOnIcePerGame": 876.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.37974 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1739, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 579.66666, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Christiansen", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481161, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 41, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 13.66666, "shifts": 39, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jake Christiansen", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 1780, "timeOnIcePerGame": 593.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.64102 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2587, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 646.75, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Voronkov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481716, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 349, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 87.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 64, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dmitri Voronkov", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 2936, "timeOnIcePerGame": 734.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.875 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2220, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 740.0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Andrae", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482126, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 47, "shiftsPerGame": 15.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Emil Andrae", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 2220, "timeOnIcePerGame": 740.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.23404 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3342, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 835.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Johnson", "otTimeOnIce": 74, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 74.0, "playerId": 8482660, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 696, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 174.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 86, "shiftsPerGame": 21.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Kent Johnson", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 4038, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1009.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.95348 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3446, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 861.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Sillinger", "otTimeOnIce": 63, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 63.0, "playerId": 8482705, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 237, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 59.25, "shifts": 86, "shiftsPerGame": 21.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Sillinger", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 3683, "timeOnIcePerGame": 920.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.82558 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3409, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 852.25, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Knies", "otTimeOnIce": 89, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 89.0, "playerId": 8482720, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 737, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 184.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 2, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.5, "shifts": 86, "shiftsPerGame": 21.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Knies", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 4148, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1037.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.23255 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5510, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1377.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Mateychuk", "otTimeOnIce": 119, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 119.0, "playerId": 8483485, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 269, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 67.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 238, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 59.5, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 28.75, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Denton Mateychuk", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 6017, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1504.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.32173 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3920, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 980.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Fantilli", "otTimeOnIce": 170, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 170.0, "playerId": 8484166, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 719, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 179.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 65, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 16.25, "shifts": 96, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Fantilli", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 4704, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1176.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.0 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892489", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.885303314571607, 3.277884615384615 ], "Primary": [ 2.9631630642318147, 3.201248898812138 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.030485, 3.17073 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8478500, "incumbent": "Ivan Provorov", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T15:21Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478500, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478500/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 26, "avgToi": "23:21", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 31, "plusMinus": 11, "points": 33, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.07, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 3, "shots": 100, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blue Jackets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "fr": "Blue Jackets de Columbus" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Columbus", "fr": "de Columbus" } }, { "assists": 22, "avgToi": "24:49", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 32, "plusMinus": 14, "points": 31, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 5, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.056962, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 158, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blue Jackets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "fr": "Blue Jackets de Columbus" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Columbus", "fr": "de Columbus" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481161, "player": "Jake Christiansen", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 768, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477369, "player": "Carson Soucy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 41 }, { "player_id": 8475790, "player": "Erik Gudbranson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1086, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8478460, "player": "Zach Werenski", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1602, "PP_seconds": 38, "SH_seconds": 53 }, { "player_id": 8483485, "player": "Denton Mateychuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1132, "PP_seconds": 82, "SH_seconds": 59 }, { "player_id": 8476923, "player": "Damon Severson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1482, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Brendan Smith", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-01-08T16:26Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets", "market": { "id": "401892489", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892489", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.099710+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 200.0, "away_line_price": -245.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 114.0, "under_price": -135.0, "home_ml": -125.0, "away_ml": 105.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.3925813008130081, "combined": 6.163187929956222, "spread_buffer": -1.1074186991869919, "total_difference": -0.336812070043778 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.3925813008130081, "combined": 6.163187929956222, "spread_buffer": -1.1074186991869919, "total_difference": -0.336812070043778 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.2380858345803234, "combined": 6.164411963043953, "spread_buffer": -1.2619141654196766, "total_difference": -0.33558803695604666 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.2380858345803234, "combined": 6.164411963043953, "spread_buffer": -1.2619141654196766, "total_difference": -0.33558803695604666 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.14024499999999973, "combined": 6.2012149999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.3597550000000003, "total_difference": -0.2987850000000005 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.14024499999999973, "combined": 6.2012149999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.3597550000000003, "total_difference": -0.2987850000000005 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.14024499999999973, "combined": 6.2012149999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.3597550000000003, "total_difference": -0.2987850000000005 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.14024499999999973, "combined": 6.2012149999999995, "spread_buffer": -1.3597550000000003, "total_difference": -0.2987850000000005 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892490", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892490", "date": "2026-10-13T22:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "2", "away_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Montreal Canadiens", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1873170731707314, 3.3339587242026267 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1873170731707314, 3.3339587242026267 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1873170731707314, 3.3339587242026267 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.5121951219512195, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 2.6666666666666665, 3.6666666666666665 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.451219512195122, 3.1219512195121952 ], "current_rates": [ 3.0, 3.8 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2560900000000004, 5.25609 ], "home": [ 1.164625, 5.164625 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.252691743102873, 3.3210150578950386 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.252691743102873, 3.3210150578950386 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.252691743102873, 3.3210150578950386 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2560900000000004, 5.25609 ], "home": [ 1.164625, 5.164625 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7, "official_team_name": "Buffalo Sabres" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.40243, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 8, "official_team_name": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2560900000000004, 5.25609 ], "home": [ 1.164625, 5.164625 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.45121, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 7, "official_team_name": "Buffalo Sabres" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.40243, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 8, "official_team_name": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2560900000000004, 5.25609 ], "home": [ 1.164625, 5.164625 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "BUF: Dahlin left October12 early and did not travel; do not repeat his partial-game PP role as healthy. Exclusion and acquisition-depth branches retained; Jones/Laatsch/Johnson trade source primary and both sides reviewed. Recent-reference new availability branches: Rasmus Dahlin. MTL: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Bell Centre; listed 2026-10-13T22:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892490", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Buffalo Sabres", "home": "Montreal Canadiens", "start_et": "2026-10-13T18:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T22:30Z", "venue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 6:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 6:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "previous_game": { "id": "401892485", "date": "2026-10-12T17:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "26", "away_name": "Florida Panthers", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "2", "home_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20738.708333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Montreal Canadiens", "previous_game": { "id": "401892473", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1831", "fullName": "Bell Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Montreal", "state": "QC", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Montreal Canadiens", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020092, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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}, "away": "2", "away_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "10", "home_name": "Montreal Canadiens", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "formula": "2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus", "away_score": 3.2560900000000004, "home_score": 3.164625, "unrounded_score": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 3.26, 3.16 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. 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"lastName": "Doan", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "FLA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482659, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 155, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 155.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Josh Doan", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 975, "timeOnIcePerGame": 975.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.31818 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1186, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1186.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020087, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Power", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "FLA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482671, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 298, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 298.0, "shTimeOnIce": 107, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 107.0, "shifts": 29, "shiftsPerGame": 29.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Owen Power", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 1591, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1591.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.86206 }, { 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"evTimeOnIcePerGame": 776.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020087, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Quinn", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "FLA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482097, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 279, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 279.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jack Quinn", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 1055, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1055.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 62.05882 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 521, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 521.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020087, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Malenstyn", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "FLA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479359, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 75, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 75.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Beck 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"shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Olen Zellweger", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 1203, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1203.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.30434 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 435, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 435.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020087, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Dahlin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "FLA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480839, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 111, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 111.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 13, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Rasmus Dahlin", "teamAbbrev": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 546, "timeOnIcePerGame": 546.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.0 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 747, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 191 }, { "player_id": 8479420, "player": "Tage 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Benson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 715, "PP_seconds": 289, "SH_seconds": 176 }, { "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 33, "SH_seconds": 207 }, { "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 102 }, { "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 521, "PP_seconds": 163, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482097, "player": "Jack Quinn", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 279, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 521, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah Ostlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 758, "PP_seconds": 278, "SH_seconds": 38 }, { "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 37, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480839, "player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 435, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14282, "PP_seconds": 2210, "SH_seconds": 1192 }, "conditional_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional absence and redistribution", "status_source": { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "abbreviation": "BUF", "player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "player_id": "4294163", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T20:05Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/2/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" }, "incumbent": { "player_id": 8480839, "player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 435, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 0 }, "replacement_ids": [ 8484305, 8482671, 8480807, 8481806, 8482803 ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 808.4727582292849, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 191.0 }, { "player_id": 8479420, "player": "Tage Thompson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 802, "PP_seconds": 268, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8482896, "player": "Tyson Kozak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 570, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 76 }, { "player_id": 8483468, "player": "Jiri Kulich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 126, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8482659, "player": "Josh Doan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 820, "PP_seconds": 155, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1283.599318955732, "PP_seconds": 387.1590296495957, "SH_seconds": 107.0 }, { "player_id": 8481522, "player": "Peyton Krebs", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 901, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1500.0578887627696, "PP_seconds": 46.77088948787062, "SH_seconds": 197.0 }, { "player_id": 8484797, "player": "Konsta Helenius", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 755, "PP_seconds": 137, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484145, "player": "Zach Benson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 715, "PP_seconds": 289, "SH_seconds": 176 }, { "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 33, "SH_seconds": 207 }, { "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 866.916572077185, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 102.0 }, { "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 521, "PP_seconds": 163, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482097, "player": "Jack Quinn", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 279, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 521, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah Ostlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 758, "PP_seconds": 278, "SH_seconds": 38 }, { "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1261.9534619750284, "PP_seconds": 48.07008086253369, "SH_seconds": 0.0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14282.0, "PP_seconds": 2210.0, "SH_seconds": 1192.0 }, "calculation": "Reallocate missing observed EV/PP/SH seconds among demonstrated same-position-group reference skaters in proportion to each strength exposure. Explicit shortened-bench sensitivity; final dressing replacement and PP-unit labels not invented.", "unassigned_dressing_slot": "Current reserve choice unconfirmed; no independent scoring contribution assumed." } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8484145, "name": { "default": "Z. 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Krebs" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:08", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8483468, "name": { "default": "J.Kulich" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:52", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8482097, "name": { "default": "J. 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Kozak" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:46", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8480802, "name": { "default": "R. McLeod" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:04", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8479420, "name": { "default": "T. Thompson" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:58", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8483500, "name": { "default": "N. Ostlund" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "17:54", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8482659, "name": { "default": "J. Doan" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:15", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8484797, "name": { "default": "K. Helenius" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:52", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8482803, "name": { "default": "O. Zellweger" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:03", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8480807, "name": { "default": "M. Samuelsson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "26:59", "shifts": 30 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8482671, "name": { "default": "O. Power" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "26:31", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8480839, "name": { "default": "R. Dahlin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "09:06", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8481806, "name": { "default": "L. Crevier" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:03", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020087, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "BUF", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "playerId": 8484305, "name": { "default": "Z. Metsa" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:38", "shifts": 21 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.1873170731707314, 3.3339587242026267 ], "Primary": [ 3.252691743102873, 3.3210150578950386 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020087/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Dahlin left October12 early and did not travel; do not repeat his partial-game PP role as healthy. Exclusion and acquisition-depth branches retained; Jones/Laatsch/Johnson trade source primary and both sides reviewed. Recent-reference new availability branches: Rasmus Dahlin.", "reference_date": "2026-10-12", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8484145, "player": "Zach Benson", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8475842, "player": "Sam Carrick", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479941, "player": "Justin Danforth", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8482659, "player": "Josh Doan", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8484797, "player": "Konsta Helenius", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8482896, "player": "Tyson Kozak", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8481522, "player": "Peyton Krebs", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8483468, "player": "Jiri Kulich", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479359, "player": "Beck Malenstyn", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480802, "player": "Ryan McLeod", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480064, "player": "Josh Norris", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8483500, "player": "Noah Ostlund", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8482097, "player": "Jack Quinn", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479420, "player": "Tage Thompson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480839, "player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8476891, "player": "Matt Grzelcyk", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479982, "player": "Conor Timmins", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8481551, "player": "Colten Ellis", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8480045, "player": "Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" }, { "team": "BUF", "player_id": 8479312, "player": "Alex Lyon", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BUF/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "abbreviation": "BUF", "player": "Jason Zucker", "player_id": "2593315", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T15:10Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/2/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" }, { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "abbreviation": "BUF", "player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "player_id": "4294163", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T20:05Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/2/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" }, { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "abbreviation": "BUF", "player": "Conor Timmins", "player_id": "4233868", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:28Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/2/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" }, { "team": "Buffalo Sabres", "abbreviation": "BUF", "player": "Alex Lyon", "player_id": "3654006", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T15:07Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/2/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475842, 8476891, 8479312, 8479359, 8479420, 8479941, 8479982, 8480045, 8480064, 8480802, 8480807, 8480839, 8481522, 8481551, 8481806, 8482097, 8482659, 8482671, 8482803, 8482896, 8483468, 8483500, 8484145, 8484305, 8484797 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.07142, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 80, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8475842, "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "points": 20, "assists": 14, "positionCode": 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0597, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 76, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8479359, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "points": 10, "assists": 6, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 67, "timeOnIcePerGame": 631.8552, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "Beck Malenstyn", "goals": 4, "evPoints": 10, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.18181, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 76, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8479420, 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272, "shiftsPerGame": 22.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jiri Kulich", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 11782, "timeOnIcePerGame": 981.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.31617 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 45328, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 755.46666, "gamesPlayed": 60, "lastName": "Ostlund", "otTimeOnIce": 153, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 12.75, "playerId": 8483500, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 4792, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.86666, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 170, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.83333, "shifts": 1123, "shiftsPerGame": 18.71666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Noah Ostlund", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 50290, "timeOnIcePerGame": 838.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.78183 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 51552, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 793.10769, "gamesPlayed": 65, "lastName": "Benson", "otTimeOnIce": 134, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 10.30769, "playerId": 8484145, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 6749, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 103.83076, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 3663, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 56.35384, "shifts": 1343, "shiftsPerGame": 20.66153, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zach Benson", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 61964, "timeOnIcePerGame": 953.2923, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.13849 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 27406, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 637.34883, "gamesPlayed": 43, "lastName": "Metsa", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484305, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 94, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.18604, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 797, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 18.53488, "shifts": 589, "shiftsPerGame": 13.69767, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Zach Metsa", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 28297, "timeOnIcePerGame": 658.06976, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.04244 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6431, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 714.55555, "gamesPlayed": 9, "lastName": "Helenius", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484797, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 134, "shiftsPerGame": 14.88888, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Konsta Helenius", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 6431, "timeOnIcePerGame": 714.55555, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.99253 } ], "20262027": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 1396, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 465.33333, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Carrick", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475842, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 8, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 22, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.33333, "shifts": 41, "shiftsPerGame": 13.66666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sam Carrick", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 1426, "timeOnIcePerGame": 475.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 34.78048 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 801, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 801.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Grzelcyk", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476891, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 66, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 66.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Grzelcyk", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 867, "timeOnIcePerGame": 867.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.40909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2863, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 477.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Malenstyn", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479359, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 15, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 554, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 92.33333, "shifts": 99, "shiftsPerGame": 16.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Beck Malenstyn", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 3432, "timeOnIcePerGame": 572.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 34.66666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5775, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 962.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Thompson", "otTimeOnIce": 68, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 68.0, "playerId": 8479420, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1226, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 204.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 11, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.83333, "shifts": 149, "shiftsPerGame": 24.83333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tage Thompson", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 7012, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1168.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.0604 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1537, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 512.33333, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Danforth", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479941, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 279, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 93.0, "shifts": 54, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Justin Danforth", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 1816, "timeOnIcePerGame": 605.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 33.62962 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4290, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 715.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Norris", "otTimeOnIce": 53, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 53.0, "playerId": 8480064, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 713, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 118.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 508, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.66666, "shifts": 133, "shiftsPerGame": 22.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Josh Norris", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5511, "timeOnIcePerGame": 918.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.43609 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4097, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 682.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "McLeod", "otTimeOnIce": 59, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 59.0, "playerId": 8480802, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 594, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 99.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 795, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 132.5, "shifts": 128, "shiftsPerGame": 21.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ryan McLeod", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5486, "timeOnIcePerGame": 914.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.85937 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6834, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1139.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Samuelsson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480807, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 37, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 809, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 134.83333, "shifts": 153, "shiftsPerGame": 25.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mattias Samuelsson", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 7680, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1280.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.19607 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7312, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1218.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Dahlin", "otTimeOnIce": 141, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 141.0, "playerId": 8480839, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1183, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 197.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 13, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.16666, "shifts": 150, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Rasmus Dahlin", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 8508, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1418.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.72 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5226, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 871.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Krebs", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481522, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 61, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 10.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 7, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.16666, "shifts": 118, "shiftsPerGame": 19.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Peyton Krebs", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5294, "timeOnIcePerGame": 882.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.8644 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4718, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 786.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Crevier", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481806, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 755, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 125.83333, "shifts": 122, "shiftsPerGame": 20.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Louis Crevier", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5473, "timeOnIcePerGame": 912.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.86065 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5572, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 928.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Quinn", "otTimeOnIce": 137, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 137.0, "playerId": 8482097, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1319, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 219.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 163, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 27.16666, "shifts": 136, "shiftsPerGame": 22.66666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jack Quinn", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 7054, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1175.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.86764 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4949, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 824.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Doan", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482659, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 825, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 137.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 128, "shiftsPerGame": 21.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Josh Doan", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5774, "timeOnIcePerGame": 962.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.10937 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7889, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1314.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Power", "otTimeOnIce": 121, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 121.0, "playerId": 8482671, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 782, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 130.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 730, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 121.66666, "shifts": 175, "shiftsPerGame": 29.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Owen Power", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 9401, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1566.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.72 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5096, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1019.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Zellweger", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482803, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 96, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 19.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 7, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.4, "shifts": 108, "shiftsPerGame": 21.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Olen Zellweger", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 5199, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1039.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.13888 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1021, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 510.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Kozak", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482896, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 76, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 38.0, "shifts": 30, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tyson Kozak", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 1098, "timeOnIcePerGame": 549.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.6 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3563, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 712.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Kulich", "otTimeOnIce": 89, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 89.0, "playerId": 8483468, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 131, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 26.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 12, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.4, "shifts": 90, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jiri Kulich", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 3706, "timeOnIcePerGame": 741.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.17777 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5278, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 879.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Ostlund", "otTimeOnIce": 61, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 61.0, "playerId": 8483500, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1081, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 180.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 172, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 28.66666, "shifts": 132, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Noah Ostlund", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 6531, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1088.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.47727 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5127, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 854.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Benson", "otTimeOnIce": 57, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 57.0, "playerId": 8484145, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1268, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 211.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 605, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 100.83333, "shifts": 139, "shiftsPerGame": 23.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zach Benson", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 7000, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1166.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.35971 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3603, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 600.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Metsa", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484305, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 832, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 138.66666, "shifts": 99, "shiftsPerGame": 16.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Zach Metsa", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 4435, "timeOnIcePerGame": 739.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.79797 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3649, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 729.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Helenius", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484797, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 630, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 126.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 91, "shiftsPerGame": 18.2, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Konsta Helenius", "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "timeOnIce": 4279, "timeOnIcePerGame": 855.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.02197 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892490", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.1873170731707314, 3.3339587242026267 ], "Primary": [ 3.252691743102873, 3.3210150578950386 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Jason Zucker", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T15:10Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8480839, "incumbent": "Rasmus Dahlin", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T20:05Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": 8480839, "player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 435, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 0 }, "history": [ { "player_id": 8480839, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480839/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 51, "avgToi": "24:14", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 73, "goals": 17, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 54, "plusMinus": 11, "points": 68, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 21, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.085, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 200, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "17:45", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.33, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 3, "teamName": { "default": "Sweden" } }, { "assists": 55, "avgToi": "24:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 76, "plusMinus": 18, "points": 74, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 22, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.097938, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 194, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "21:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.05, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 20, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sweden", "cs": "\u0160v\u00e9dsko", "de": "Schweden", "es": "Suecia", "fi": "Ruotsi", "fr": "Su\u00e8de", "sk": "\u0160v\u00e9dsko", "sv": "Sverige" }, "teamName": { "default": "Sweden", "cs": "\u0160v\u00e9dsko", "de": "Schweden", "es": "Suecia", "fi": "Ruotsi", "fr": "Su\u00e8de", "sk": "\u0160v\u00e9dsko", "sv": "Sverige" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 10, "avgToi": "23:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 6, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.086957, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 46, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "23:38", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.105263, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 19, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 747, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 191 }, { "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1186, "PP_seconds": 298, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1386, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 197 }, { "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 102 }, { "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 37, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8479982, "incumbent": "Conor Timmins", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:28Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8479982, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479982/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "16:19", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 51, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.039216, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 51, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "18:43", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 17, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.055556, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 18, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "18:46", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 39, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 18, "plusMinus": -8, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 44, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "16:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sabres" }, "teamName": { "default": "Buffalo Sabres", "fr": "Sabres de Buffalo" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Buffalo", "fr": "de Buffalo" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484305, "player": "Zach Metsa", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 747, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 191 }, { "player_id": 8482671, "player": "Owen Power", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1186, "PP_seconds": 298, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8480807, "player": "Mattias Samuelsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1386, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 197 }, { "player_id": 8481806, "player": "Louis Crevier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 801, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 102 }, { "player_id": 8482803, "player": "Olen Zellweger", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1166, "PP_seconds": 37, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480839, "player": "Rasmus Dahlin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 435, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020092, "team": "MTL", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 835, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 835.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Danault", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 31, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 31.0, "playerId": 8476479, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 208, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 208.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Phillip Danault", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1043, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1043.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.34782 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 414, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 414.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Engstrom", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483686, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 10, "shiftsPerGame": 10.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Engstrom", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 414, "timeOnIcePerGame": 414.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.4 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 485, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 485.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Evans", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8478133, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 228, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 228.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jake Evans", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 713, "timeOnIcePerGame": 713.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.5625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1149, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1149.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Suzuki", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 211, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 211.0, "playerId": 8480018, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 364, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 364.0, "shTimeOnIce": 53, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 53.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nick Suzuki", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1566, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1566.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 58.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 654, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 654.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Kreider", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8475184, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 387, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 387.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Chris Kreider", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1041, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1041.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.78947 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1200, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1200.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Hutson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 133, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 133.0, "playerId": 8483457, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 383, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 383.0, "shTimeOnIce": 7, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Lane Hutson", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1590, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1590.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 63.6 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 444, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 444.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Xhekaj", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482964, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 8, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.0, "shifts": 9, "shiftsPerGame": 9.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Arber Xhekaj", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 452, "timeOnIcePerGame": 452.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.22222 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 326, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 326.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Dach", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481523, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 83, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 83.0, "shTimeOnIce": 46, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 46.0, "shifts": 12, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kirby Dach", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 455, "timeOnIcePerGame": 455.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.91666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 841, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 841.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Carrier", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8478851, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 262, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 262.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Alexandre Carrier", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1103, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1103.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.13636 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 963, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 963.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Slafkovsk\u00fd", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 113, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 113.0, "playerId": 8483515, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 367, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 367.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Juraj Slafkovsk\u00fd", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1330, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1330.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 60.45454 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 912, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 912.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Caufield", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 116, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 116.0, "playerId": 8481540, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 365, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 365.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Cole Caufield", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1277, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1277.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.52173 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 853, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 853.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Bolduc", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 38, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 38.0, "playerId": 8482737, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 95, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 95.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zachary Bolduc", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 948, "timeOnIcePerGame": 948.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.14285 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 754, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 754.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Guhle", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482087, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 15, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 15.0, "shTimeOnIce": 164, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 164.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Kaiden Guhle", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 933, "timeOnIcePerGame": 933.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.10526 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 967, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 967.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Texier", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 65, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 65.0, "playerId": 8480074, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 113, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 113.0, "shTimeOnIce": 4, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alexandre Texier", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1084, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1084.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.36 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 749, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 749.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Anderson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476981, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "shTimeOnIce": 144, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 144.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Josh Anderson", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 894, "timeOnIcePerGame": 894.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.05263 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 924, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 924.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Dobson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480865, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 97, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 97.0, "shTimeOnIce": 173, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 173.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Noah Dobson", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1194, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1194.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.75 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1065, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1065.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Matheson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 167, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 167.0, "playerId": 8476875, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 19, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 19.0, "shTimeOnIce": 297, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 297.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mike Matheson", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1381, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1381.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 60.04347 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 709, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 709.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020075, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Newhook", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "DET", "otTimeOnIce": 26, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 26.0, "playerId": 8481618, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 111, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 111.0, "shTimeOnIce": 196, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 196.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alex Newhook", "teamAbbrev": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1016, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1016.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.17391 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8476479, "player": "Phillip Danault", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 208 }, { "player_id": 8483686, "player": "Adam Engstrom", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 414, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478133, "player": "Jake Evans", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 485, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 228 }, { "player_id": 8480018, "player": "Nick Suzuki", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1149, "PP_seconds": 364, "SH_seconds": 53 }, { "player_id": 8475184, "player": "Chris Kreider", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 387, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483457, "player": "Lane Hutson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1200, "PP_seconds": 383, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8482964, "player": "Arber Xhekaj", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 444, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8481523, "player": "Kirby Dach", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 326, "PP_seconds": 83, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8478851, "player": "Alexandre Carrier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 841, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 262 }, { "player_id": 8483515, "player": "Juraj Slafkovsk\u00fd", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 367, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481540, "player": "Cole Caufield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 912, 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Dobson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:54", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020075, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "MTL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020075/boxscore", "playerId": 8482964, "name": { "default": "A. 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Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020075/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. 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"player_id": 8484984, "player": "Ivan Demidov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8478133, "player": "Jake Evans", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8482775, "player": "Oliver Kapanen", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8475184, "player": "Chris Kreider", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8481618, "player": "Alex Newhook", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8483515, "player": "Juraj Slafkovsk\u00fd", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", 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"player_id": 8482087, "player": "Kaiden Guhle", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8483457, "player": "Lane Hutson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8476875, "player": "Mike Matheson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8482964, "player": "Arber Xhekaj", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8482487, "player": "Jakub Dobes", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8484170, "player": "Jacob Fowler", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" }, { "team": "MTL", "player_id": 8478470, "player": "Samuel Montembeault", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MTL/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Montreal Canadiens", "abbreviation": "MTL", "player": "Oliver Kapanen", "player_id": "4874943", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T21:18Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/10/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.301218+00:00" }, { "team": "Montreal Canadiens", "abbreviation": "MTL", "player": "Florian Xhekaj", "player_id": "5188457", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T12:50Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/10/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.301218+00:00" }, { "team": "Montreal Canadiens", "abbreviation": "MTL", "player": "Ivan Demidov", "player_id": "5216860", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T21:16Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/10/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.301218+00:00" }, { "team": "Montreal Canadiens", "abbreviation": "MTL", "player": "Sam Montembeault", "player_id": "3942714", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T21:20Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/10/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.301218+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475184, 8476479, 8476875, 8476981, 8478133, 8478470, 8478851, 8480018, 8480074, 8480865, 8481523, 8481540, 8481618, 8482087, 8482487, 8482737, 8482775, 8482964, 8483457, 8483515, 8483686, 8484170, 8484403, 8484984 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.14473, "shGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 68, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8475184, "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "points": 30, "assists": 8, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 152, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1005.25, "ppGoals": 6, "ppPoints": 7, 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436, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 87.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 4, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.8, "shifts": 81, "shiftsPerGame": 16.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alexandre Texier", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 3904, "timeOnIcePerGame": 780.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.19753 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5388, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1077.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Dobson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480865, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 404, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 80.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 803, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 160.6, "shifts": 134, "shiftsPerGame": 26.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Noah Dobson", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 6595, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1319.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.21641 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2554, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 510.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Dach", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481523, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 220, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 44.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 88, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 17.6, "shifts": 65, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kirby Dach", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 2862, "timeOnIcePerGame": 572.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.03076 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4781, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 956.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Caufield", "otTimeOnIce": 161, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 80.5, "playerId": 8481540, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1206, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 241.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 110, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Cole Caufield", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 5987, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1197.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.42727 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3758, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 751.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Newhook", "otTimeOnIce": 39, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 19.5, "playerId": 8481618, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 419, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 83.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 773, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 154.6, "shifts": 111, "shiftsPerGame": 22.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alex Newhook", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 4950, "timeOnIcePerGame": 990.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.59459 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 754, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 754.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Guhle", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482087, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 15, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 15.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 164, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 164.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Kaiden Guhle", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 933, "timeOnIcePerGame": 933.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.10526 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3691, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 738.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Bolduc", "otTimeOnIce": 38, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 19.0, "playerId": 8482737, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 410, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 80, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zachary Bolduc", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 4101, "timeOnIcePerGame": 820.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.2625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2877, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 575.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Xhekaj", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482964, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 8, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 401, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 80.2, "shifts": 72, "shiftsPerGame": 14.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Arber Xhekaj", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 3286, "timeOnIcePerGame": 657.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.63888 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6740, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1348.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Hutson", "otTimeOnIce": 178, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 89.0, "playerId": 8483457, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1263, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 252.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 24, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.8, "shifts": 129, "shiftsPerGame": 25.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Lane Hutson", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 8027, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1605.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 62.2248 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4525, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 905.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Slafkovsk\u00fd", "otTimeOnIce": 142, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 71.0, "playerId": 8483515, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1196, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 239.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.2, "shifts": 104, "shiftsPerGame": 20.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Juraj Slafkovsk\u00fd", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 5722, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1144.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.01923 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1080, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 540.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Engstrom", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483686, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 43, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 21.5, "shifts": 29, "shiftsPerGame": 14.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Engstrom", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1123, "timeOnIcePerGame": 561.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.72413 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 912, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 456.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Xhekaj", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484403, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 10.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Florian Xhekaj", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 912, "timeOnIcePerGame": 456.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.6 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1553, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 776.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Demidov", "otTimeOnIce": 40, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 40.0, "playerId": 8484984, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 321, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 160.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 39, "shiftsPerGame": 19.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ivan Demidov", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL", "timeOnIce": 1874, "timeOnIcePerGame": 937.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.05128 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892490", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.1873170731707314, 3.3339587242026267 ], "Primary": [ 3.252691743102873, 3.3210150578950386 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.2560900000000004, 3.164625 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8482775, "incumbent": "Oliver Kapanen", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T21:18Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482775, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482775/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "10:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.428571, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 18, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 16, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 20, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 36, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "SHL", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 35, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Timr\u00e5 IK" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "EHT", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Finland" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "6:56", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.444444, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "SHL", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Timr\u00e5 IK" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 6, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "14:28", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.455357, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 22, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 37, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.167939, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 3, "shots": 131, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "8:12", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.43, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Finland", "cs": "Finsko", "de": "Finnland", "es": "Finlandia", "fi": "Suomi", "fr": "Finlande", "sk": "F\u00ednsko" }, "teamName": { "default": "Finland", "cs": "Finsko", "de": "Finnland", "es": "Finlandia", "fi": "Suomi", "fr": "Finlande", "sk": "F\u00ednsko" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "8:20", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.619048, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476479, "player": "Phillip Danault", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 208 }, { "player_id": 8478133, "player": "Jake Evans", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 485, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 228 }, { "player_id": 8480018, "player": "Nick Suzuki", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1149, "PP_seconds": 364, "SH_seconds": 53 }, { "player_id": 8475184, "player": "Chris Kreider", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 387, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481523, "player": "Kirby Dach", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 326, "PP_seconds": 83, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8483515, "player": "Juraj Slafkovsk\u00fd", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 367, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481540, "player": "Cole Caufield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 912, "PP_seconds": 365, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482737, "player": "Zachary Bolduc", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 853, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480074, "player": "Alexandre Texier", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 967, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 4 }, { "player_id": 8476981, "player": "Josh Anderson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 749, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 144 }, { "player_id": 8481618, "player": "Alex Newhook", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 709, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 196 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8484403, "incumbent": "Florian Xhekaj", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T12:50Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8484403, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484403/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 11, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 69, "goals": 24, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 175, "plusMinus": 10, "points": 35, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 59, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "9:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 7, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 12, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 64, "goals": 17, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 182, "plusMinus": 8, "points": 29, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 34, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "7:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476479, "player": "Phillip Danault", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 208 }, { "player_id": 8478133, "player": "Jake Evans", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 485, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 228 }, { "player_id": 8480018, "player": "Nick Suzuki", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1149, "PP_seconds": 364, "SH_seconds": 53 }, { "player_id": 8475184, "player": "Chris Kreider", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 387, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481523, "player": "Kirby Dach", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 326, "PP_seconds": 83, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8483515, "player": "Juraj Slafkovsk\u00fd", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 367, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481540, "player": "Cole Caufield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 912, "PP_seconds": 365, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482737, "player": "Zachary Bolduc", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 853, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480074, "player": "Alexandre Texier", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 967, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 4 }, { "player_id": 8476981, "player": "Josh Anderson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 749, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 144 }, { "player_id": 8481618, "player": "Alex Newhook", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 709, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 196 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8484984, "incumbent": "Ivan Demidov", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-06T21:16Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8484984, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484984/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "13:43", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 30, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 65, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "KHL", "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 14, "points": 49, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "SKA St. Petersburg" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "14:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "KHL", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 5, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "SKA St. Petersburg" } }, { "assists": 43, "avgToi": "15:30", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 34, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 62, "powerPlayGoals": 7, "powerPlayPoints": 20, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.149606, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 127, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "17:03", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 19, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 5, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.085714, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 35, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "15:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.25, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476479, "player": "Phillip Danault", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 835, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 208 }, { "player_id": 8478133, "player": "Jake Evans", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 485, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 228 }, { "player_id": 8480018, "player": "Nick Suzuki", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1149, "PP_seconds": 364, "SH_seconds": 53 }, { "player_id": 8475184, "player": "Chris Kreider", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 654, "PP_seconds": 387, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481523, "player": "Kirby Dach", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 326, "PP_seconds": 83, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8483515, "player": "Juraj Slafkovsk\u00fd", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 367, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481540, "player": "Cole Caufield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 912, "PP_seconds": 365, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482737, "player": "Zachary Bolduc", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 853, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480074, "player": "Alexandre Texier", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 967, "PP_seconds": 113, "SH_seconds": 4 }, { "player_id": 8476981, "player": "Josh Anderson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 749, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 144 }, { "player_id": 8481618, "player": "Alex Newhook", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 709, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 196 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Sam Montembeault", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T21:20Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens", "market": { "id": "401892490", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892490", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.161869+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 160.0, "away_line_price": -192.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": -155.0, "away_ml": 130.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.1466416510318953, "combined": 6.521275797373358, "spread_buffer": -1.3533583489681047, "total_difference": 0.02127579737335772 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.1466416510318953, "combined": 6.521275797373358, "spread_buffer": -1.3533583489681047, "total_difference": 0.02127579737335772 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.06832331479216558, "combined": 6.573706800997911, "spread_buffer": -1.4316766852078344, "total_difference": 0.07370680099791116 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.06832331479216558, "combined": 6.573706800997911, "spread_buffer": -1.4316766852078344, "total_difference": 0.07370680099791116 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.09146500000000035, "combined": 6.420715, "spread_buffer": -1.5914650000000004, "total_difference": -0.0792849999999996 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.09146500000000035, "combined": 6.420715, "spread_buffer": -1.5914650000000004, "total_difference": -0.0792849999999996 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.09146500000000035, "combined": 6.420715, "spread_buffer": -1.5914650000000004, "total_difference": -0.0792849999999996 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.09146500000000035, "combined": 6.420715, "spread_buffer": -1.5914650000000004, "total_difference": -0.0792849999999996 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892491", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892491", "date": "2026-10-13T22:45Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "999", "fullName": "Lenovo Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Raleigh", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "23", "away_name": "Washington Capitals", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "7", "home_name": "Carolina Hurricanes", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9217524841915083, 3.4071906052393857 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9217524841915083, 3.4071906052393857 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9217524841915083, 3.4071906052393857 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.207317073170732, 2.975609756097561 ], "current_rates": [ 3.4, 2.8 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 3.6097560975609757, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.857142857142857, 2.4285714285714284 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.18292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 15, "official_team_name": "Washington Capitals" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12, "official_team_name": "Carolina Hurricanes" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.18292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 15, "official_team_name": "Washington Capitals" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12, "official_team_name": "Carolina Hurricanes" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "WSH: Dubois will not travel with illness, Roy IR and Sandin LTIR; Holl recalled. Current reference already excludes those players; Tuch maintenance not assumed absent. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. CAR: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Lenovo Center; listed 2026-10-13T22:45Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892491", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Washington Capitals", "home": "Carolina Hurricanes", "start_et": "2026-10-13T18:45:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T22:45Z", "venue": { "id": "999", "fullName": "Lenovo Center", "address": { "city": "Raleigh", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 6:45 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 6:45 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Washington Capitals", "previous_game": { "id": "401892482", "date": "2026-10-11T21:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1823", "fullName": "Capital One Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124292", "away_name": "Seattle Kraken", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "23", "home_name": "Washington Capitals", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20737.875 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Carolina Hurricanes", "previous_game": { "id": "401892484", "date": "2026-10-11T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1845", "fullName": "Xfinity Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "7", "away_name": "Carolina Hurricanes", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "15", "home_name": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20737.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020093, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "tu": { "id": "401892491", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892491", "date": "2026-10-13T22:45Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "999", "fullName": "Lenovo Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Raleigh", "state": "NC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "23", "away_name": "Washington Capitals", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "7", "home_name": "Carolina Hurricanes", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "formula": "2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus", "away_score": 3.03048, "home_score": 3.225605, "unrounded_score": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 3.03, 3.23 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.18292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 15, "official_team_name": "Washington Capitals" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.54878, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 12, "official_team_name": "Carolina Hurricanes" } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\scoring\\slate-NHL.json", "sha256": "33eafda3515f36bcc42de3a35ce8089b82c84b630ad604df844ae9b8e929e0cd" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\NHL.json", "sha256": "328e317c45660222a5a093b521ab735af9e48c112148505576ad2984fabf0be8" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Tracking-only policy; explicit sport activation and calibrated buffers/distribution absent.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": 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"opponentTeamAbbrev": "SEA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478463, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 8, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 13, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Anthony Beauvillier", "teamAbbrev": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 533, "timeOnIcePerGame": 533.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 864, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 864.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020084, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Ovechkin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "SEA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8471214, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 152, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 152.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Alex Ovechkin", "teamAbbrev": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 1016, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1016.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.44444 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1044, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1044.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020084, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Wilson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "SEA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476880, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 114, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 114.0, "shTimeOnIce": 91, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 91.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tom Wilson", "teamAbbrev": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 1249, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1249.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.03846 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 855, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 855.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020084, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Protas", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "SEA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481656, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "shTimeOnIce": 33, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 33.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Aliaksei Protas", "teamAbbrev": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 889, "timeOnIcePerGame": 889.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.78947 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1234, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1234.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020084, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Fehervary", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "SEA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480796, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 13.0, "shTimeOnIce": 165, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 165.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Martin Fehervary", "teamAbbrev": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 1412, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1412.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.30769 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 782, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 782.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020084, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Jenner", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "SEA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476432, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 9, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.0, "shTimeOnIce": 140, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 140.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Boone Jenner", "teamAbbrev": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 931, "timeOnIcePerGame": 931.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.33333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1007, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1007.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020084, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Tuch", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "SEA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477949, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 101, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 101.0, "shTimeOnIce": 144, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 144.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Alex Tuch", "teamAbbrev": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 1252, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1252.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.08 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8482088, "player": "Justin Sourdif", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 629, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 67 }, { "player_id": 8479385, "player": "Jordan Kyrou", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 855, "PP_seconds": 94, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483573, "player": "Ethen Frank", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 487, "PP_seconds": 64, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484999, "player": "Ilya Protas", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 682, "PP_seconds": 89, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480043, "player": "Timothy Liljegren", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1202, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8479345, "player": "Jakob Chychrun", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1424, "PP_seconds": 138, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8484873, "player": "Cole Hutson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1113, "PP_seconds": 89, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475795, "player": "Dylan McIlrath", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 305, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479576, "player": "Vincent Desharnais", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 964, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 161 }, { "player_id": 8478440, "player": "Dylan Strome", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1042, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484186, "player": "Ryan Leonard", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8478463, "player": "Anthony Beauvillier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 525, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8471214, "player": "Alex Ovechkin", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 864, "PP_seconds": 152, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476880, "player": "Tom Wilson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1044, "PP_seconds": 114, "SH_seconds": 91 }, { "player_id": 8481656, "player": "Aliaksei Protas", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 855, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 33 }, { "player_id": 8480796, "player": "Martin Fehervary", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1234, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 165 }, { "player_id": 8476432, "player": "Boone Jenner", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8477949, "player": "Alex Tuch", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1007, "PP_seconds": 101, "SH_seconds": 144 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15798, "PP_seconds": 1140, "SH_seconds": 960 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8471214, "name": { "default": "A. Ovechkin", "cs": "A. Ove\u010dkin", "fi": "A. Ovetshkin", "sk": "A. Ove\u010dkin" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:56", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8484186, "name": { "default": "R. Leonard" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:21", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8478440, "name": { "default": "D. Strome" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:34", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8481656, "name": { "default": "A. Protas" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:49", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8476432, "name": { "default": "B. Jenner" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:31", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8479385, "name": { "default": "J. Kyrou" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:49", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8482088, "name": { "default": "J. Sourdif" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:36", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8476880, "name": { "default": "T. Wilson" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:49", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8483573, "name": { "default": "E. Frank" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:11", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8484999, "name": { "default": "I. Protas" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:51", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8478463, "name": { "default": "A. Beauvillier" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:53", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8477949, "name": { "default": "A. Tuch" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:52", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8479345, "name": { "default": "J. Chychrun" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "27:23", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8480043, "name": { "default": "T. Liljegren" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:17", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8480796, "name": { "default": "M. Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1ry" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:32", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8484873, "name": { "default": "C. Hutson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:02", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8475795, "name": { "default": "D. McIlrath" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "05:05", "shifts": 9 }, { "event_id": 2026020084, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "WSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "playerId": 8479576, "name": { "default": "V. Desharnais" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:47", "shifts": 24 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.9217524841915083, 3.4071906052393857 ], "Primary": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020084/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Dubois will not travel with illness, Roy IR and Sandin LTIR; Holl recalled. Current reference already excludes those players; Tuch maintenance not assumed absent. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-11", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8478463, "player": "Anthony Beauvillier", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8479400, "player": "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8483573, "player": "Ethen Frank", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8476432, "player": "Boone Jenner", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8479385, "player": "Jordan Kyrou", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8484186, "player": "Ryan Leonard", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8483491, "player": "Ivan Miroshnichenko", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8471214, "player": "Alex Ovechkin", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8481656, "player": "Aliaksei Protas", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8484999, "player": "Ilya Protas", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8482088, "player": "Justin Sourdif", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8478440, "player": "Dylan Strome", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8477949, "player": "Alex Tuch", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8476880, "player": "Tom Wilson", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8479345, "player": "Jakob Chychrun", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8479576, "player": "Vincent Desharnais", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": "WSH", "player_id": 8480796, "player": "Martin Feh\u00e9rv\u00e1ry", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WSH/current" }, { "team": 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"ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1126, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 225.2, "shifts": 118, "shiftsPerGame": 23.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Vincent Desharnais", "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 5865, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1173.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.70338 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4958, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 991.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Liljegren", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480043, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 2, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 653, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 130.6, "shifts": 111, "shiftsPerGame": 22.2, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Timothy Liljegren", "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 5613, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1122.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.56756 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5454, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1090.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Fehervary", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480796, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 41, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1050, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 210.0, "shifts": 125, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Martin Fehervary", "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 6545, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1309.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.36 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4035, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 807.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Protas", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481656, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 729, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 145.8, "shifts": 96, "shiftsPerGame": 19.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Aliaksei Protas", "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 4765, "timeOnIcePerGame": 953.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.63541 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3687, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 737.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Sourdif", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482088, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 7, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 281, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 56.2, "shifts": 92, "shiftsPerGame": 18.4, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Justin Sourdif", "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 3975, "timeOnIcePerGame": 795.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.20652 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 487, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 487.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Frank", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483573, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 64, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 64.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 14, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Ethen Frank", "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 551, "timeOnIcePerGame": 551.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.35714 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3549, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 709.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Leonard", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484186, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 586, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 117.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 3, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.6, "shifts": 86, "shiftsPerGame": 17.2, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Ryan Leonard", "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 4138, "timeOnIcePerGame": 827.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.11627 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5017, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1003.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Hutson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484873, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 529, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 105.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 34, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.8, "shifts": 114, "shiftsPerGame": 22.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Hutson", "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 5580, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1116.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.94736 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2983, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 596.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Protas", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484999, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 436, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 87.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 71, "shiftsPerGame": 14.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ilya Protas", "teamAbbrevs": "WSH", "timeOnIce": 3419, "timeOnIcePerGame": 683.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.15492 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892491", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.9217524841915083, 3.4071906052393857 ], "Primary": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8479400, "incumbent": "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T16:02Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8479400, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479400/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 46, "avgToi": "17:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.496985, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 76, "plusMinus": 27, "points": 66, "powerPlayGoals": 4, "powerPlayPoints": 14, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.140845, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 142, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "17:03", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.544828, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "16:49", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.472585, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 29, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 19, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 6, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.119048, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 42, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "17:06", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.465517, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.166667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482088, "player": "Justin Sourdif", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 629, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 67 }, { "player_id": 8479385, "player": "Jordan Kyrou", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 855, "PP_seconds": 94, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483573, "player": "Ethen Frank", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 487, "PP_seconds": 64, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484999, "player": "Ilya Protas", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 682, "PP_seconds": 89, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478440, "player": "Dylan Strome", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1042, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484186, "player": "Ryan Leonard", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8478463, "player": "Anthony Beauvillier", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 525, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8471214, "player": "Alex Ovechkin", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 864, "PP_seconds": 152, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476880, "player": "Tom Wilson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1044, "PP_seconds": 114, "SH_seconds": 91 }, { "player_id": 8481656, "player": "Aliaksei Protas", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 855, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 33 }, { "player_id": 8476432, "player": "Boone Jenner", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 782, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8477949, "player": "Alex Tuch", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1007, "PP_seconds": 101, "SH_seconds": 144 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8478911, "incumbent": "Matt Roy", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T14:25Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478911, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478911/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 21, "avgToi": "19:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 69, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 25, "plusMinus": 18, "points": 24, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.035714, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 84, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "23:52", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "20:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 79, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 18, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.021277, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 94, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:26", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480043, "player": "Timothy Liljegren", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1202, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8479345, "player": "Jakob Chychrun", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1424, "PP_seconds": 138, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8484873, "player": "Cole Hutson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1113, "PP_seconds": 89, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475795, "player": "Dylan McIlrath", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 305, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479576, "player": "Vincent Desharnais", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 964, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 161 }, { "player_id": 8480796, "player": "Martin Fehervary", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1234, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 165 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Rasmus Sandin", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T14:27Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020093, "team": "CAR", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 846, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 846.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Blake", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482809, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 372, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 372.0, "shTimeOnIce": 7, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jackson Blake", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 1225, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1225.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 76.5625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 938, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 938.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Slavin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476958, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 213, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 213.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jaccob Slavin", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 1151, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1151.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.31818 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 644, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 644.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Reilly", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476422, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 22, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 22.0, "shTimeOnIce": 8, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mike Reilly", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 674, "timeOnIcePerGame": 674.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 35.47368 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 582, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 582.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Robinson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480762, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 22, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 22.0, "shTimeOnIce": 147, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 147.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Eric Robinson", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 751, "timeOnIcePerGame": 751.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.06666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 737, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 737.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Martinook", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476921, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 120, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 120.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jordan Martinook", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 857, "timeOnIcePerGame": 857.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.10526 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1080, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1080.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Miller", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480817, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 105, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 105.0, "shTimeOnIce": 141, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 141.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "K'Andre Miller", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 1326, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1326.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.65217 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 681, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 681.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Gostisbehere", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476906, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 353, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 353.0, "shTimeOnIce": 8, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Shayne Gostisbehere", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 1042, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1042.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.61904 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 503, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 503.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Deslauriers", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475235, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 22, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 22.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 12, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nicolas Deslauriers", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 525, "timeOnIcePerGame": 525.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.75 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 639, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 639.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": 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"opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477478, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "William Carrier", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 732, "timeOnIcePerGame": 732.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.6 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1025, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1025.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Chatfield", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478970, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 22, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 22.0, "shTimeOnIce": 214, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 214.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jalen Chatfield", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 1261, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1261.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.44 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1139, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1139.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Walker", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PHI", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480336, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 86, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 86.0, "shTimeOnIce": 139, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 139.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sean Walker", "teamAbbrev": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 1364, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1364.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.56 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8482809, "player": "Jackson Blake", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 846, "PP_seconds": 372, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8476958, "player": "Jaccob Slavin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 938, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 213 }, { "player_id": 8476422, "player": "Mike Reilly", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 644, "PP_seconds": 22, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8480762, "player": "Eric Robinson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 22, "SH_seconds": 147 }, { "player_id": 8476921, "player": "Jordan Martinook", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 737, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8480817, "player": "K'Andre Miller", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1080, "PP_seconds": 105, "SH_seconds": 141 }, { "player_id": 8476906, "player": "Shayne Gostisbehere", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 353, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8475235, "player": "Nicolas Deslauriers", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 503, "PP_seconds": 22, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480830, "player": "Andrei Svechnikov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 639, "PP_seconds": 347, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478427, "player": "Sebastian Aho", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 642, "PP_seconds": 326, "SH_seconds": 136 }, { "player_id": 8482702, "player": "Logan Stankoven", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 794, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8476873, "player": "Mark Jankowski", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 83, "SH_seconds": 169 }, { "player_id": 8475791, "player": "Taylor Hall", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 815, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477940, "player": "Nikolaj Ehlers", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 686, "PP_seconds": 375, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480829, "player": "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 621, "PP_seconds": 22, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477478, "player": "William Carrier", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 732, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478970, "player": "Jalen Chatfield", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1025, "PP_seconds": 22, "SH_seconds": 214 }, { "player_id": 8480336, "player": "Sean Walker", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1139, "PP_seconds": 86, "SH_seconds": 139 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13800, "PP_seconds": 2400, "SH_seconds": 1440 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8478427, "name": { "default": "S. 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Sve\u010dnikov" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:26", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8475235, "name": { "default": "N. Deslauriers" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:45", "shifts": 12 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8476921, "name": { "default": "J. Martinook" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:17", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8480762, "name": { "default": "E. Robinson" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:31", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8482809, "name": { "default": "J. Blake" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:25", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8475791, "name": { "default": "T. Hall" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:26", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8476873, "name": { "default": "M. Jankowski" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:48", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8480829, "name": { "default": "J. Kotkaniemi" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:43", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8476906, "name": { "default": "S. Gostisbehere" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:22", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8478970, "name": { "default": "J. Chatfield" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:01", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8476422, "name": { "default": "M. Reilly" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:14", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8480817, "name": { "default": "K. Miller" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:06", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8480336, "name": { "default": "S. Walker" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:44", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "CAR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8476958, "name": { "default": "J. Slavin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:11", "shifts": 22 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.9217524841915083, 3.4071906052393857 ], "Primary": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-11", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8478427, "player": "Sebastian Aho", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8482809, "player": "Jackson Blake", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8477478, "player": "William Carrier", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8475235, "player": "Nicolas Deslauriers", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8477940, "player": "Nikolaj Ehlers", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8475791, "player": "Taylor Hall", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8476873, "player": "Mark Jankowski", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8480829, "player": "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8476921, "player": "Jordan Martinook", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8480762, "player": "Eric Robinson", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8473533, "player": "Jordan Staal", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8482702, "player": "Logan Stankoven", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8480830, "player": "Andrei Svechnikov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8478970, "player": "Jalen Chatfield", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8476906, "player": "Shayne Gostisbehere", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8480817, "player": "K'Andre Miller", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8476422, "player": "Mike Reilly", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8476958, "player": "Jaccob Slavin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8479976, "player": "Juuso V\u00e4lim\u00e4ki", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8480336, "player": "Sean Walker", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8483548, "player": "Brandon Bussi", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" }, { "team": "CAR", "player_id": 8481611, "player": "Pyotr Kochetkov", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CAR/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Carolina Hurricanes", "abbreviation": "CAR", "player": "Seth Jarvis", "player_id": "4697396", "injuries": [ { "status": 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"ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 83.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1040, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 173.33333, "shifts": 143, "shiftsPerGame": 23.83333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jordan Staal", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 5602, "timeOnIcePerGame": 933.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.17482 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1369, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 456.33333, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Deslauriers", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8475235, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 22, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 33, "shiftsPerGame": 11.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nicolas Deslauriers", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 1391, "timeOnIcePerGame": 463.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.15151 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5226, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 746.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Hall", "otTimeOnIce": 66, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 33.0, "playerId": 8475791, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 753, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 107.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 12, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.71428, "shifts": 122, "shiftsPerGame": 17.42857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Taylor Hall", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 5991, "timeOnIcePerGame": 855.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.10655 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3755, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 751.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Reilly", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476422, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 22, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 135, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 27.0, "shifts": 93, "shiftsPerGame": 18.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mike Reilly", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 3912, "timeOnIcePerGame": 782.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.06451 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4394, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 627.71428, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Jankowski", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476873, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 337, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 48.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 967, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 138.14285, "shifts": 131, "shiftsPerGame": 18.71428, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mark Jankowski", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 5698, "timeOnIcePerGame": 814.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.49618 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5742, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 820.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Gostisbehere", "otTimeOnIce": 199, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 99.5, "playerId": 8476906, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 2000, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 285.71428, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 13, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.85714, "shifts": 143, "shiftsPerGame": 20.42857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Shayne Gostisbehere", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 7755, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1107.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.23076 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5036, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 719.42857, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Martinook", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476921, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 27, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1041, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 148.71428, "shifts": 144, "shiftsPerGame": 20.57142, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jordan Martinook", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 6104, "timeOnIcePerGame": 872.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.38888 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7209, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1029.85714, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Slavin", "otTimeOnIce": 130, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 65.0, "playerId": 8476958, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 18, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1550, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 221.42857, "shifts": 168, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jaccob Slavin", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 8777, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1253.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.24404 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4926, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 703.71428, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Carrier", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8477478, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 16.42857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "William Carrier", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 4926, "timeOnIcePerGame": 703.71428, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.83478 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4781, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 683.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Ehlers", "otTimeOnIce": 101, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 50.5, "playerId": 8477940, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1809, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 258.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 128, "shiftsPerGame": 18.28571, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nikolaj Ehlers", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 6590, "timeOnIcePerGame": 941.42857, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.48437 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5360, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 765.71428, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Aho", "otTimeOnIce": 248, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 124.0, "playerId": 8478427, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 2030, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 290.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 753, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 107.57142, "shifts": 161, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Sebastian Aho", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 8143, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1163.28571, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.57763 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7148, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1021.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Chatfield", "otTimeOnIce": 51, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 25.5, "playerId": 8478970, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 40, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.71428, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1391, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 198.71428, "shifts": 171, "shiftsPerGame": 24.42857, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jalen Chatfield", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 8579, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1225.57142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.16959 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7284, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1040.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Walker", "otTimeOnIce": 69, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 34.5, "playerId": 8480336, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 430, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 61.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1254, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 179.14285, "shifts": 181, "shiftsPerGame": 25.85714, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sean Walker", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 8968, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1281.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.54696 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4505, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 643.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Robinson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480762, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 22, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 691, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 98.71428, "shifts": 111, "shiftsPerGame": 15.85714, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Eric Robinson", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 5218, "timeOnIcePerGame": 745.42857, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.009 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7464, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1066.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Miller", "otTimeOnIce": 151, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 75.5, "playerId": 8480817, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 783, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 111.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1176, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 168.0, "shifts": 180, "shiftsPerGame": 25.71428, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "K'Andre Miller", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 9423, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1346.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.35 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3317, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 663.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Kotkaniemi", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480829, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 67, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 13.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 12, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.4, "shifts": 70, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 3396, "timeOnIcePerGame": 679.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.51428 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5070, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 724.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Svechnikov", "otTimeOnIce": 190, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 95.0, "playerId": 8480830, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 2035, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 290.71428, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 17, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.42857, "shifts": 140, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Andrei Svechnikov", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 7122, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1017.42857, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.87142 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5824, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 832.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Stankoven", "otTimeOnIce": 65, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 32.5, "playerId": 8482702, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 838, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 119.71428, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 783, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 111.85714, "shifts": 149, "shiftsPerGame": 21.28571, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Logan Stankoven", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 7445, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1063.57142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.96644 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5324, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 760.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Blake", "otTimeOnIce": 195, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 97.5, "playerId": 8482809, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 2288, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 326.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 31, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.42857, "shifts": 127, "shiftsPerGame": 18.14285, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jackson Blake", "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "timeOnIce": 7643, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1091.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 60.1811 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892491", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.9217524841915083, 3.4071906052393857 ], "Primary": [ 2.87858577237004, 3.4479745813214766 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.03048, 3.225605 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Seth Jarvis", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-27T18:00Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8473533, "incumbent": "Jordan Staal", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T12:56Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8473533, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8473533/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 23, "avgToi": "15:26", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.544771, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 75, "goals": 13, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 15, "points": 36, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.121495, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 107, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Hurricanes" }, "teamName": { "default": "Carolina Hurricanes", "fr": "Hurricanes de la Caroline" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Carolina", "fr": "de la Caroline" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "16:55", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.538721, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.111111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 18, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Hurricanes" }, "teamName": { "default": "Carolina Hurricanes", "fr": "Hurricanes de la Caroline" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Carolina", "fr": "de la Caroline" } }, { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "16:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.554894, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 75, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 29, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 36, "powerPlayGoals": 4, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.186916, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 107, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Hurricanes" }, "teamName": { "default": "Carolina Hurricanes", "fr": "Hurricanes de la Caroline" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Carolina", "fr": "de la Caroline" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "18:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.567633, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 19, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 13, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 12, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.222222, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 36, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Hurricanes" }, "teamName": { "default": "Carolina Hurricanes", "fr": "Hurricanes de la Caroline" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Carolina", "fr": "de la Caroline" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "15:34", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.556452, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Hurricanes" }, "teamName": { "default": "Carolina Hurricanes", "fr": "Hurricanes de la Caroline" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Carolina", "fr": "de la Caroline" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482809, "player": "Jackson Blake", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 846, "PP_seconds": 372, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8480762, "player": "Eric Robinson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 582, "PP_seconds": 22, "SH_seconds": 147 }, { "player_id": 8476921, "player": "Jordan Martinook", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 737, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 120 }, { "player_id": 8475235, "player": "Nicolas Deslauriers", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 503, "PP_seconds": 22, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480830, "player": "Andrei Svechnikov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 639, "PP_seconds": 347, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478427, "player": "Sebastian Aho", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 642, "PP_seconds": 326, "SH_seconds": 136 }, { "player_id": 8482702, "player": "Logan Stankoven", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 794, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8476873, "player": "Mark Jankowski", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 83, "SH_seconds": 169 }, { "player_id": 8475791, "player": "Taylor Hall", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 815, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477940, "player": "Nikolaj Ehlers", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 686, "PP_seconds": 375, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480829, "player": "Jesperi Kotkaniemi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 621, "PP_seconds": 22, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477478, "player": "William Carrier", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 732, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes", "market": { "id": "401892491", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892491", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.115373+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 160.0, "away_line_price": -192.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 105.0, "under_price": -125.0, "home_ml": -162.0, "away_ml": 136.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.4854381210478773, "combined": 6.328943089430894, "spread_buffer": -1.0145618789521227, "total_difference": -0.17105691056910644 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.4854381210478773, "combined": 6.328943089430894, "spread_buffer": -1.0145618789521227, "total_difference": -0.17105691056910644 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5693888089514365, "combined": 6.326560353691517, "spread_buffer": -0.9306111910485635, "total_difference": -0.1734396463084833 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5693888089514365, "combined": 6.326560353691517, "spread_buffer": -0.9306111910485635, "total_difference": -0.1734396463084833 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.195125, "combined": 6.256085, "spread_buffer": -1.304875, "total_difference": -0.24391500000000033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.195125, "combined": 6.256085, "spread_buffer": -1.304875, "total_difference": -0.24391500000000033 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.195125, "combined": 6.256085, "spread_buffer": -1.304875, "total_difference": -0.24391500000000033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.195125, "combined": 6.256085, "spread_buffer": -1.304875, "total_difference": -0.24391500000000033 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401871067", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401871067", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3725", "fullName": "Johnny \"Red\" Floyd Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Murfreesboro", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "48", "away_name": "Delaware Blue Hens", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2393", "home_name": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Nick Minicucci", "team": "Delaware Blue Hens", "side": "away", "condition": "UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.", "replacement": "EJ Archield Jr., Braden Streeter, Tyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.75, 32.5 ], "current_rates": [ 21.4, 25.6 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 22.416666666666668, 30.916666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 20.8, 28.0 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified October12 prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.391666666666666, 46.391666666666666 ], "home": [ 7.954166666666669, 43.954166666666666 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "conditional_score": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Nick Minicucci", "team": "Delaware Blue Hens", "side": "away", "condition": "UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.", "replacement": "EJ Archield Jr., Braden Streeter, Tyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2813, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "76d364e5ad2c8e45a8ee7cc9df271eb65eafc9de48dc32d4401120a2aa2fea51" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified October12 prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.391666666666666, 46.391666666666666 ], "home": [ 7.954166666666669, 43.954166666666666 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Nick Minicucci", "team": "Delaware Blue Hens", "side": "away", "condition": "UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.", "replacement": "EJ Archield Jr., Braden Streeter, Tyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.75, "pa": 32.5, "margin": -2.75, "event_ids": [ "401757219", "401756881", "401757168", "401757259", "401757276", "401757283", "401757287", "401757293", "401757295", "401757300", "401754606", "401757310" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.4, "pa": 25.6, "margin": -4.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401864424", "401856684", "401869940", "401858239", "401871050" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.416666666666668, "pa": 30.916666666666668, "margin": -8.5, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752820", "401757258", "401757264", "401757270", "401757278", "401757287", "401757292", "401757296", "401757303", "401757308", "401757315" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 20.8, "pa": 28.0, "margin": -7.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401867866", "401871045", "401864443", "401871048", "401856807" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.333333333333336, 27.458333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.7, 23.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.8749999999999997, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified October12 prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.391666666666666, 46.391666666666666 ], "home": [ 7.954166666666669, 43.954166666666666 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "conditional_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "applied_delta": [ -3.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [ { "player": "Nick Minicucci", "team": "Delaware Blue Hens", "side": "away", "condition": "UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.", "replacement": "EJ Archield Jr., Braden Streeter, Tyler Bell", "isolated_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "with_other_team_production": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "true_statistical_effect": null, "kind": "authorized availability sensitivity" } ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.75, "pa": 32.5, "margin": -2.75, "event_ids": [ "401757219", "401756881", "401757168", "401757259", "401757276", "401757283", "401757287", "401757293", "401757295", "401757300", "401754606", "401757310" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.4, "pa": 25.6, "margin": -4.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401864424", "401856684", "401869940", "401858239", "401871050" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.416666666666668, "pa": 30.916666666666668, "margin": -8.5, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752820", "401757258", "401757264", "401757270", "401757278", "401757287", "401757292", "401757296", "401757303", "401757308", "401757315" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 20.8, "pa": 28.0, "margin": -7.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401867866", "401871045", "401864443", "401871048", "401856807" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.333333333333336, 27.458333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.7, 23.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.8749999999999997, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified October12 prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.391666666666666, 46.391666666666666 ], "home": [ 7.954166666666669, 43.954166666666666 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved", "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Delaware Blue Hens: Nick Minicucci UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.; If Minicucci remains unavailable, incumbent starter snaps/passing/rushing redistribute to Archield and possibly Streeter/Bell; exact Oct13share not confirmed. Latest Liberty debut does not guarantee sole starter workload. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2813 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2813 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "All four base scores loaded unchanged from latest shared cutoff; unrounded conditional -3affects only Delaware. ON/OFF same arithmetic; effect on winner disagreement retained.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Johnny \"Red\" Floyd Stadium; listed 2026-10-13T23:00Z. Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro. Official host actual kickoff6:02PM CT/7:02PM ET; feed rounds7PM ET. Delaware last played Oct2 at home; Middle Tennessee Oct3 at Kansas.11/10calendar-day intervals. Delaware crosses one time zone west; host returns from Kansas. Delaware Minicucci prior-game injury: current QB return unresolved; conditional football replacement overlay retained.", "details": { "event_id": "401871067", "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "Delaware Blue Hens", "home": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "start_et": "2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3725", "fullName": "Johnny \"Red\" Floyd Stadium", "address": { "city": "Murfreesboro", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000&groups=80", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.385814+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://goblueraiders.com/news/2026/10/12/mtsu-faces-delaware-tuesday-night-in-floyd", "https://bluehens.com/news/2026/10/10/football-heads-to-middle-tennessee-for-weekday-cusa-matchup-on-tuesday" ], "context": [ "Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro. Official host actual kickoff6:02PM CT/7:02PM ET; feed rounds7PM ET.", "Delaware last played Oct2 at home; Middle Tennessee Oct3 at Kansas.11/10calendar-day intervals. Delaware crosses one time zone west; host returns from Kansas.", "Delaware Minicucci prior-game injury: current QB return unresolved; conditional football replacement overlay retained." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Delaware Blue Hens", "previous_game": { "id": "401871050", "date": "2026-10-02T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "2335", "away_name": "Liberty Flames", "away_score": 30.0, "home": "48", "home_name": "Delaware Blue Hens", "home_score": 14.0, "day": 20728.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 11, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "previous_game": { "id": "401856807", "date": "2026-10-03T16:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "2393", "away_name": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2305", "home_name": "Kansas Jayhawks", "home_score": 55.0, "day": 20729.666666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 10, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OHX/66,44/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:38:19.844660+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-13T03:36:08+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 19, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T18:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 84, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 52 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "SSW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 80, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 1 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 57 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "SSW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 75, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 1 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 69 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "S", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 73, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 1 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 71 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "S", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS outdoor hourly conditions; no unregistered numerical weather adjustment." }, "stage_label": "FBS / CUSA regular season" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-13T05:38:19.844660+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-13T03:36:08+00:00; periods: number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T18:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 84; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 52; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 80; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 1; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 57; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 75; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 1; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 69; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: S; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 73; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 1; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 71; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: S; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS outdoor hourly conditions; no unregistered numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OHX/66,44/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:38:19.844660+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-13T03:36:08+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 19, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T18:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 84, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 52 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "SSW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 20, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 80, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 1 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 57 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "SSW", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 75, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 1 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 69 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "S", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 73, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 1 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 71 }, "windSpeed": "10 mph", "windDirection": "S", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS outdoor hourly conditions; no unregistered numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved", "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/OHX/66,44/forecast/hourly", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "https://bluehens.com/news/2026/10/10/football-heads-to-middle-tennessee-for-weekday-cusa-matchup-on-tuesday", "https://goblueraiders.com/news/2026/10/12/mtsu-faces-delaware-tuesday-night-in-floyd", "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/12/MT_vs_Delaware.pdf?timestamp=20261012081922", "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/9/2026_Delaware_Football_Notes_-_Middle_Tennessee.pdf?timestamp=20261009073210", "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2229/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2229/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2393/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2393/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/48/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/48/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/55/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/55/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2" ], "tu": { "id": "401871067", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401871067", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3725", "fullName": "Johnny \"Red\" Floyd Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Murfreesboro", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "48", "away_name": "Delaware Blue Hens", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2393", "home_name": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-ncaaf-mismatch-v1", "formula": "Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370", "away_score": 28.391666666666666, "home_score": 25.95416666666667, "unrounded_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 28.4, 26.0 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.75, "pa": 32.5, "margin": -2.75, "event_ids": [ "401757219", "401756881", "401757168", "401757259", "401757276", "401757283", "401757287", "401757293", "401757295", "401757300", "401754606", "401757310" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 21.4, "pa": 25.6, "margin": -4.200000000000003, "event_ids": [ "401864424", "401856684", "401869940", "401858239", "401871050" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 22.416666666666668, "pa": 30.916666666666668, "margin": -8.5, "event_ids": [ "401757222", "401752820", "401757258", "401757264", "401757270", "401757278", "401757287", "401757292", "401757296", "401757303", "401757308", "401757315" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 20.8, "pa": 28.0, "margin": -7.199999999999999, "event_ids": [ "401867866", "401871045", "401864443", "401871048", "401856807" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 30.333333333333336, 27.458333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 24.7, 23.200000000000003 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.8749999999999997, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 1.5 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 }, "ranges": { "away": [ 10.391666666666666, 46.391666666666666 ], "home": [ 7.954166666666669, 43.954166666666666 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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point model probabilities uncalibrated.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 4, "minimum_total_buffer": 5, "maximum_tiers": 2, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 4, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated joint score distribution; probabilities withheld" }, "football_review": { "event_id": "401871067", "identity": { "id": "401871067", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3725", "fullName": "Johnny \"Red\" Floyd Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Murfreesboro", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "48", "away_name": "Delaware Blue Hens", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2393", "home_name": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] }, "teams": [ { "team_id": "48", "team": "Delaware Blue Hens", "side": "away", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Nick Minicucci", "EJ Archield Jr.", "Braden Streeter", "Tyler Bell", "Riley Trujillo" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Nick Minicucci", "status": "CURRENT STATUS UNRESOLVED: missed Oct2with injury" }, { "player": "EJ Archield Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Braden Streeter", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Tyler Bell", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Riley Trujillo", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "players": { "Nick Minicucci": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 9, "starts": 5, "pass_cmp": 79, "pass_att": 124, "pass_yds": 825, "pass_td": 10, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 45, "rush_yds": 109, "rush_td": 3, "yards_per_attempt": 6.653225806451613, "completion_rate": 0.6370967741935484, "interception_rate": 0.024193548387096774 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 12, "pass_cmp": 322, "pass_att": 512, "pass_yds": 3683, "pass_td": 23, "pass_int": 7, "rush_att": 112, "rush_yds": 235, "rush_td": 10, "yards_per_attempt": 7.193359375, "completion_rate": 0.62890625, "interception_rate": 0.013671875 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "pass_cmp": 59, "pass_att": 103, "pass_yds": 838, "pass_td": 5, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 20, "rush_yds": 26, "rush_td": 1, "yards_per_attempt": 8.135922330097088, "completion_rate": 0.5728155339805825, "interception_rate": 0.02912621359223301 } ], "EJ Archield Jr.": [ { "year": 2024, "team": null, "college_games": 0, "college_opportunities": 0, "status": "No collegiate competition; official Oct2 2026 collegiate debut. High school not converted to college." }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "pass_att": 0, "rush_att": 0, "status": "No collegiate appearance before Oct2 2026 debut." }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "pass_cmp": 10, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 137, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 18, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 7.2105263157894735, "completion_rate": 0.5263157894736842, "interception_rate": 0.0 } ], "Braden Streeter": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 2, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 6, "pass_att": 7, "pass_yds": 56, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 5, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 8.0, "completion_rate": 0.8571428571428571, "interception_rate": 0.0 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 3, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 98, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 1, "rush_att": 1, "rush_yds": 1, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.157894736842105, "completion_rate": 0.631578947368421, "interception_rate": 0.05263157894736842 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 35, "pass_yds": 175, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 7, "rush_yds": -12, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.0, "completion_rate": 0.34285714285714286, "interception_rate": 0.08571428571428572 } ] }, "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/9/2026_Delaware_Football_Notes_-_Middle_Tennessee.pdf?timestamp=20261009073210", "pages": [ 32, 33 ], "method": "Separate season/competition rows and exact opportunity arithmetic; FCS2024 vs FBS2025/current never pooled into replacement conversion.", "familiarity": "Official p14states Archield returning sophomore with Minicucci and Streeter, shared current Delaware offense; Ryan Carty and OC Terence Archer fifth season; Garrett Smith fifth at Delaware but first in QB role. Shared program is evidence of familiarity, not measured protection-call proficiency.", "opportunity_change": "If Minicucci remains unavailable, incumbent starter snaps/passing/rushing redistribute to Archield and possibly Streeter/Bell; exact Oct13share not confirmed. Latest Liberty debut does not guarantee sole starter workload.", "missing_metrics": [ "Pressure-adjusted efficiency", "individual protection-call experience", "individual sacks by QB", "drive scoring independent of game rates", "verified drops/routes/targets" ], "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated: one Archield appearance and mixed-level historical comparison do not justify a player-specific point conversion. Team scoring inputs already include prior Liberty14-point result; no double-counted extra team-rate penalty." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jo Silver", "Viron Ellison Jr.", "Kaderris Roberts" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jo Silver", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Viron Ellison Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kaderris Roberts", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Sean Wilson", "Da\u2019Wain Lofton", "Bryson Graves", "Donovan Lewis" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Sean Wilson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Da\u2019Wain Lofton", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Bryson Graves", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Donovan Lewis", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Elijah Sessoms", "Scott Moore" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Elijah Sessoms", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Scott Moore", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Nick Minicucci", "EJ Archield Jr.", "Braden Streeter", "Tyler Bell", "Riley Trujillo" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Nick Minicucci", "status": "CURRENT STATUS UNRESOLVED: missed Oct2with injury" }, { "player": "EJ Archield Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Braden Streeter", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Tyler Bell", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Riley Trujillo", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "players": { "Nick Minicucci": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 9, "starts": 5, "pass_cmp": 79, "pass_att": 124, "pass_yds": 825, "pass_td": 10, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 45, "rush_yds": 109, "rush_td": 3, "yards_per_attempt": 6.653225806451613, "completion_rate": 0.6370967741935484, "interception_rate": 0.024193548387096774 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 12, "pass_cmp": 322, "pass_att": 512, "pass_yds": 3683, "pass_td": 23, "pass_int": 7, "rush_att": 112, "rush_yds": 235, "rush_td": 10, "yards_per_attempt": 7.193359375, "completion_rate": 0.62890625, "interception_rate": 0.013671875 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "pass_cmp": 59, "pass_att": 103, "pass_yds": 838, "pass_td": 5, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 20, "rush_yds": 26, "rush_td": 1, "yards_per_attempt": 8.135922330097088, "completion_rate": 0.5728155339805825, "interception_rate": 0.02912621359223301 } ], "EJ Archield Jr.": [ { "year": 2024, "team": null, "college_games": 0, "college_opportunities": 0, "status": "No collegiate competition; official Oct2 2026 collegiate debut. High school not converted to college." }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "pass_att": 0, "rush_att": 0, "status": "No collegiate appearance before Oct2 2026 debut." }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "pass_cmp": 10, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 137, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 18, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 7.2105263157894735, "completion_rate": 0.5263157894736842, "interception_rate": 0.0 } ], "Braden Streeter": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 2, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 6, "pass_att": 7, "pass_yds": 56, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 5, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 8.0, "completion_rate": 0.8571428571428571, "interception_rate": 0.0 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 3, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 98, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 1, "rush_att": 1, "rush_yds": 1, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.157894736842105, "completion_rate": 0.631578947368421, "interception_rate": 0.05263157894736842 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 35, "pass_yds": 175, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 7, "rush_yds": -12, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.0, "completion_rate": 0.34285714285714286, "interception_rate": 0.08571428571428572 } ] }, "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/9/2026_Delaware_Football_Notes_-_Middle_Tennessee.pdf?timestamp=20261009073210", "pages": [ 32, 33 ], "method": "Separate season/competition rows and exact opportunity arithmetic; FCS2024 vs FBS2025/current never pooled into replacement conversion.", "familiarity": "Official p14states Archield returning sophomore with Minicucci and Streeter, shared current Delaware offense; Ryan Carty and OC Terence Archer fifth season; Garrett Smith fifth at Delaware but first in QB role. Shared program is evidence of familiarity, not measured protection-call proficiency.", "opportunity_change": "If Minicucci remains unavailable, incumbent starter snaps/passing/rushing redistribute to Archield and possibly Streeter/Bell; exact Oct13share not confirmed. Latest Liberty debut does not guarantee sole starter workload.", "missing_metrics": [ "Pressure-adjusted efficiency", "individual protection-call experience", "individual sacks by QB", "drive scoring independent of game rates", "verified drops/routes/targets" ], "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated: one Archield appearance and mixed-level historical comparison do not justify a player-specific point conversion. Team scoring inputs already include prior Liberty14-point result; no double-counted extra team-rate penalty." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jo Silver", "Viron Ellison Jr.", "Kaderris Roberts" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jo Silver", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Viron Ellison Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kaderris Roberts", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Sean Wilson", "Da\u2019Wain Lofton", "Bryson Graves", "Donovan Lewis" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Sean Wilson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Da\u2019Wain Lofton", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Bryson Graves", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Donovan Lewis", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Elijah Sessoms", "Scott Moore" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Elijah Sessoms", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Scott Moore", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Wilson21catches304yards; Lofton13/258; Graves12/147; Lewis9/124. Silver52carries211yards; Ellison19/71; Roberts21/86. Sessoms5/71 as primary receivingTE. Routes/snaps/targets unavailable; no invented share.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [ { "scenario_id": "delaware-minicucci-unavailable", "trigger": "Conditional only: Minicucci remains absent or materially limited and replacement workload required.", "incumbent": "Nick Minicucci", "replacement": [ "EJ Archield Jr.", "Braden Streeter", "Tyler Bell" ], "availability": "UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.", "comparison": { "players": { "Nick Minicucci": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 9, "starts": 5, "pass_cmp": 79, "pass_att": 124, "pass_yds": 825, "pass_td": 10, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 45, "rush_yds": 109, "rush_td": 3, "yards_per_attempt": 6.653225806451613, "completion_rate": 0.6370967741935484, "interception_rate": 0.024193548387096774 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 13, "starts": 12, "pass_cmp": 322, "pass_att": 512, "pass_yds": 3683, "pass_td": 23, "pass_int": 7, "rush_att": 112, "rush_yds": 235, "rush_td": 10, "yards_per_attempt": 7.193359375, "completion_rate": 0.62890625, "interception_rate": 0.013671875 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 4, "pass_cmp": 59, "pass_att": 103, "pass_yds": 838, "pass_td": 5, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 20, "rush_yds": 26, "rush_td": 1, "yards_per_attempt": 8.135922330097088, "completion_rate": 0.5728155339805825, "interception_rate": 0.02912621359223301 } ], "EJ Archield Jr.": [ { "year": 2024, "team": null, "college_games": 0, "college_opportunities": 0, "status": "No collegiate competition; official Oct2 2026 collegiate debut. High school not converted to college." }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "games": 0, "starts": 0, "pass_att": 0, "rush_att": 0, "status": "No collegiate appearance before Oct2 2026 debut." }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 1, "starts": 1, "pass_cmp": 10, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 137, "pass_td": 0, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 18, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 7.2105263157894735, "completion_rate": 0.5263157894736842, "interception_rate": 0.0 } ], "Braden Streeter": [ { "year": 2024, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FCS", "games": 2, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 6, "pass_att": 7, "pass_yds": 56, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 0, "rush_att": 4, "rush_yds": 5, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 8.0, "completion_rate": 0.8571428571428571, "interception_rate": 0.0 }, { "year": 2025, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 3, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 19, "pass_yds": 98, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 1, "rush_att": 1, "rush_yds": 1, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.157894736842105, "completion_rate": 0.631578947368421, "interception_rate": 0.05263157894736842 }, { "year": 2026, "team": "Delaware", "competition": "FBS", "games": 4, "starts": 0, "pass_cmp": 12, "pass_att": 35, "pass_yds": 175, "pass_td": 1, "pass_int": 3, "rush_att": 7, "rush_yds": -12, "rush_td": 0, "yards_per_attempt": 5.0, "completion_rate": 0.34285714285714286, "interception_rate": 0.08571428571428572 } ] }, "source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/9/2026_Delaware_Football_Notes_-_Middle_Tennessee.pdf?timestamp=20261009073210", "pages": [ 32, 33 ], "method": "Separate season/competition rows and exact opportunity arithmetic; FCS2024 vs FBS2025/current never pooled into replacement conversion.", "familiarity": "Official p14states Archield returning sophomore with Minicucci and Streeter, shared current Delaware offense; Ryan Carty and OC Terence Archer fifth season; Garrett Smith fifth at Delaware but first in QB role. Shared program is evidence of familiarity, not measured protection-call proficiency.", "opportunity_change": "If Minicucci remains unavailable, incumbent starter snaps/passing/rushing redistribute to Archield and possibly Streeter/Bell; exact Oct13share not confirmed. Latest Liberty debut does not guarantee sole starter workload.", "missing_metrics": [ "Pressure-adjusted efficiency", "individual protection-call experience", "individual sacks by QB", "drive scoring independent of game rates", "verified drops/routes/targets" ], "statistical_effect": null, "statistical_conclusion": "Unestimated: one Archield appearance and mixed-level historical comparison do not justify a player-specific point conversion. Team scoring inputs already include prior Liberty14-point result; no double-counted extra team-rate penalty." }, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "gate": "PASS pending QB status and all scenario/stress/market gates" }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "gate": "PASS pending QB status and all scenario/stress/market gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "gate": "PASS pending QB status and all scenario/stress/market gates" }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_deduction": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "gate": "PASS pending QB status and all scenario/stress/market gates" } }, "player": "Nick Minicucci", "state": "UNRESOLVED for Oct13; official Oct10preview reports missed prior game, not current OUT.", "replacement_or_pool_lead": "EJ Archield Jr., Braden Streeter, Tyler Bell", "reference_role_and_opportunity_change": "If Minicucci remains unavailable, incumbent starter snaps/passing/rushing redistribute to Archield and possibly Streeter/Bell; exact Oct13share not confirmed. Latest Liberty debut does not guarantee sole starter workload.", "calculation": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_adjusted_scenario_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "human_deduction": -3, "other_adjustments": [] } } } ], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [ { "name": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] } }, { "name": "Minicucci unavailable or materially limited, replacement workload", "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "models": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] } } ], "overlap": "Single covered QB trigger; no RB/WR/TE penalty identified or stacked. QB passing loss not deducted again from receivers.", "status": "Conditional unresolved" }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Current role holders and material committee/receivingTE contributors reviewed. Routine rotations and offseason transfers are not availability deductions. No evidence supports other current covered-role absence.", "official_depth_source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/9/2026_Delaware_Football_Notes_-_Middle_Tennessee.pdf?timestamp=20261009073210", "reference_lineup": "Official Oct13 game notes pp17,32-39,68; latest five-game starting-lineup log; Minicucci started first4 then Archield LibertyOct2.", "offensive_line": [ "Anthony Caccese", "Mustafa Kanneh", "Steven Demboski", "Chandler Telfaire", "Noah Rosahac" ], "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / QB STATUS CONDITIONAL" }, { "team_id": "2393", "team": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Roman Gagliano" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Roman Gagliano", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Antonio Martin Jr.", "Terrence Brown Jr." ], "availability": [ { "player": "Antonio Martin Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Terrence Brown Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Cam\u2019ron Lacy", "Neo Clifton", "Markus Allen", "AJ Jones" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Cam\u2019ron Lacy", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Neo Clifton", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Markus Allen", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "AJ Jones", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Hogan Wasson", "Tayvion Galloway" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Hogan Wasson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Tayvion Galloway", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Roman Gagliano" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Roman Gagliano", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Antonio Martin Jr.", "Terrence Brown Jr." ], "availability": [ { "player": "Antonio Martin Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Terrence Brown Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Cam\u2019ron Lacy", "Neo Clifton", "Markus Allen", "AJ Jones" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Cam\u2019ron Lacy", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Neo Clifton", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Markus Allen", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "AJ Jones", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Hogan Wasson", "Tayvion Galloway" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Hogan Wasson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Tayvion Galloway", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Gagliano88/156913yards8TD1INT; Martin72carries385yards; Brown18/114 plus12receiving57yards. Lacy31catches335yards; Clifton9/102; Allen8/140; Jones8/88. Wasson5/43 and Galloway3/16 receivingTE role. No official absence identified.", "reference": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [], "overlap": "Single covered QB trigger; no RB/WR/TE penalty identified or stacked. QB passing loss not deducted again from receivers.", "status": "No trigger identified" }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Current role holders and material committee/receivingTE contributors reviewed. Routine rotations and offseason transfers are not availability deductions. No evidence supports other current covered-role absence.", "official_depth_source": "https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sidearm.nextgen.sites/bluehens.com/documents/2026/10/12/MT_vs_Delaware.pdf?timestamp=20261012081922", "reference_lineup": "Official Oct13 game notes current individual statistics p31, career starts p7, position roster p12. Formal current depth chart unavailable; roles crosschecked current five-game starts and preview.", "offensive_line": [ "Brennan Smith", "Chris Moreno", "Trevaris Edwards", "Quentin Butler", "Reese Tripp" ], "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / NO TRIGGER IDENTIFIED" } ], "release_gate": "Pending robust survival of both QB endpoints and normal gates; no predetermined outcome", "decision": "No live promotion before prices and all gates", "defense_protection_inventory": "Official game notes defensive depth and current statistics retained; no independent justified turnover/field-position/tempo conversion. Do not automatically raise opponent points.", "offensive_line_review": [ { "team": "Delaware Blue Hens", "line": [ "Anthony Caccese", "Mustafa Kanneh", "Steven Demboski", "Chandler Telfaire", "Noah Rosahac" ], "assessment": "Official current personnel/starts reviewed; game-day limitations not individually certified. No invented incremental adjustment." }, { "team": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "line": [ "Brennan Smith", "Chris Moreno", "Trevaris Edwards", "Quentin Butler", "Reese Tripp" ], "assessment": "Official current personnel/starts reviewed; game-day limitations not individually certified. No invented incremental adjustment." } ], "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved", "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ] }, "football_supplement": { "event_id": "401871067", "identity": { "id": "401871067", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3725", "fullName": "Johnny \"Red\" Floyd Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Murfreesboro", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "48", "away_name": "Delaware Blue Hens", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2393", "home_name": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "home_margin": 2.25, "total": 50.29545454545455, "gate": "PENDING PRICE/STRESS GATES: evaluate both healthy-return base and conditional -3 endpoint; PASS if any required gate fails", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Conditional Minicucci-unavailable sensitivity, NOT confirmed OUT. Healthy-return case retains baseline.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 24.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ], "home_selection": [ 27.022727272727273, 26.272727272727273 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 50.29545454545455, "under_selection_total": 53.29545454545455 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "Own-side downside uses Delaware-3branch; when selecting Middle Tennessee, opponent Delaware upper endpoint is unchanged base. No independently justified additional opponent scoring increase; normal engine stress allowance still required." }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "home_margin": 8.425485603195554, "total": 50.31504943105839, "gate": "PENDING PRICE/STRESS GATES: evaluate both healthy-return base and conditional -3 endpoint; PASS if any required gate fails", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Conditional Minicucci-unavailable sensitivity, NOT confirmed OUT. Healthy-return case retains baseline.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 20.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ], "home_selection": [ 23.94478191393142, 29.370267517126972 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 50.31504943105839, "under_selection_total": 53.31504943105839 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "Own-side downside uses Delaware-3branch; when selecting Middle Tennessee, opponent Delaware upper endpoint is unchanged base. No independently justified additional opponent scoring increase; normal engine stress allowance still required." }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_margin": 0.5625000000000036, "total": 51.34583333333333, "gate": "PENDING PRICE/STRESS GATES: evaluate both healthy-return base and conditional -3 endpoint; PASS if any required gate fails", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Conditional Minicucci-unavailable sensitivity, NOT confirmed OUT. Healthy-return case retains baseline.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333, "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "Own-side downside uses Delaware-3branch; when selecting Middle Tennessee, opponent Delaware upper endpoint is unchanged base. No independently justified additional opponent scoring increase; normal engine stress allowance still required." }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "human_deductions": [ -3, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_margin": 0.5625000000000036, "total": 51.34583333333333, "gate": "PENDING PRICE/STRESS GATES: evaluate both healthy-return base and conditional -3 endpoint; PASS if any required gate fails", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "Conditional Minicucci-unavailable sensitivity, NOT confirmed OUT. Healthy-return case retains baseline.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333, "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333 }, "endpoint_bound_basis": "Own-side downside uses Delaware-3branch; when selecting Middle Tennessee, opponent Delaware upper endpoint is unchanged base. No independently justified additional opponent scoring increase; normal engine stress allowance still required." } }, "production_scenario": "CONDITIONAL AVAILABILITY SENSITIVITY / NOT CONFIRMED OUT", "scenario_choice_by_team": { "away": "Minicucci-unavailable conditional -3; healthy-return base retained", "home": "No trigger" }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH_IF_NOT_ROBUST", "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved", "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "Delaware current QB unresolved: official prior injury, first-career Archield start. Human -3conditional only; two completed-season and current comparisons retained. Remaining covered roles reviewed without supported triggers.", "Gideon Marsh": "All four base scores loaded unchanged from latest shared cutoff; unrounded conditional -3affects only Delaware. ON/OFF same arithmetic; effect on winner disagreement retained." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json" }, "offensive_review": [], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "market": { "id": "401871067", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871067", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.124006+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -108.0, "away_line_price": -112.0, "total": 47.5, "under_line": 47.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": 102.0, "away_ml": -122.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 47.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.75, "combined": 53.29545454545455, "spread_buffer": 0.75, "total_difference": 5.795454545454547 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 2.25, "combined": 50.29545454545455, "spread_buffer": 3.75, "total_difference": 2.7954545454545467 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 5.425485603195554, "combined": 53.31504943105839, "spread_buffer": 6.925485603195554, "total_difference": 5.815049431058391 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 8.425485603195554, "combined": 50.31504943105839, "spread_buffer": 9.925485603195554, "total_difference": 2.815049431058391 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.4374999999999964, "combined": 54.34583333333333, "spread_buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "total_difference": 6.845833333333331 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5625000000000036, "combined": 51.34583333333333, "spread_buffer": 2.0625000000000036, "total_difference": 3.8458333333333314 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401871067", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871067", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.124006+00:00", "selection_side": "home", "line": 1.5, "home_line": 1.5, "pick": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +1.5", "price": -108.0, "canonical_buffer": 2.0625000000000036, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "worst_stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964, "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 2.0625000000000036, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0625000000000036, "adverse_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9374999999999964 }, { "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964, "adverse_score": [ 31.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved", "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; actual QB availability remains unresolved." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -3.9374999999999964, "worst_case": { "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964, "adverse_score": [ 31.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 2.0625000000000036, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0625000000000036, "adverse_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9374999999999964 }, { "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964, "adverse_score": [ 31.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333, "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, "total": { "event_id": "401871067", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871067", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.124006+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 47.5, "home_line": 1.5, "pick": "Over 47.5", "price": -115.0, "canonical_buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "worst_stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314, "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314, "adverse_score": [ 22.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314 }, { "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 6.845833333333331, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.845833333333331, "adverse_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333314 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved", "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; actual QB availability remains unresolved." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": 0.8458333333333314, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314, "adverse_score": [ 22.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314, "adverse_score": [ 22.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314 }, { "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 6.845833333333331, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.845833333333331, "adverse_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333314 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333, "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.4374999999999964, "combined": 54.34583333333333, "spread_buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "total_difference": 6.845833333333331 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5625000000000036, "combined": 51.34583333333333, "spread_buffer": 2.0625000000000036, "total_difference": 3.8458333333333314 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401871067", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871067", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.124006+00:00", "selection_side": "home", "line": 1.5, "home_line": 1.5, "pick": "Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +1.5", "price": -108.0, "canonical_buffer": 2.0625000000000036, "required_buffer": 3, "minimum_branch_buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "worst_applicable_buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "worst_stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964, "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 2.0625000000000036, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0625000000000036, "adverse_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9374999999999964 }, { "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964, "adverse_score": [ 31.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved", "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; actual QB availability remains unresolved." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -3.9374999999999964, "worst_case": { "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964, "adverse_score": [ 31.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 2.0625000000000036, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 2.0625000000000036, "adverse_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -0.9374999999999964 }, { "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": -0.9374999999999964, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -0.9374999999999964, "adverse_score": [ 31.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": -3.9374999999999964 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333, "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, "total": { "event_id": "401871067", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871067", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:30.808459+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.124006+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 47.5, "home_line": 1.5, "pick": "Over 47.5", "price": -115.0, "canonical_buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "worst_applicable_buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "worst_stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314, "base_score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "adjusted_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314, "adverse_score": [ 22.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314 }, { "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 6.845833333333331, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.845833333333331, "adverse_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333314 } ], "unresolved_high": 1, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Delaware quarterback availability unresolved", "detail": "Minicucci missed prior game; replacement Archield has19career college attempts. Preserve healthy-return and unavailable -3branches; no current OUT claim. No unconditional failure preselected: all availability endpoints, adverse opponent-offense bound and existing stress/gates must survive. No endpoint survival certifies actual QB status.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false, "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen active/inactive endpoint fails required stress", "assessment_scope": "Selection-specific numerical robustness only; actual QB availability remains unresolved." } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch", "1 unresolved high-severity risk(s)" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": 0.8458333333333314, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314, "adverse_score": [ 22.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314 }, "scenario_count": 2, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 3.8458333333333314, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 3.8458333333333314, "adverse_score": [ 22.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 0.8458333333333314 }, { "branch": "Minicucci available without material limitation", "score": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "buffer": 6.845833333333331, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.845833333333331, "adverse_score": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.8458333333333314 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 25.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ], "home_selection": [ 28.391666666666666, 25.95416666666667 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 51.34583333333333, "under_selection_total": 54.34583333333333 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401891665", "sport": "UFC", "identity": { "id": "401891665", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": true, "sport": "UFC", "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "None", "home": "None", "away_name": "Ilias Bulaid", "home_name": "Erick Visconde", "card_id": "600060741", "start_scope": "Card segment start; exact bout time varies" }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "model", "risk": "No registered validated MMA score engine." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official current card and Week10 weigh-in verify all ten fighters at permitted weights. No new cancellation found at capture. Current rescheduled Bulaid\u2013Visconde bout distinguished from Week8 postponement. No athlete point-score projection.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered validated UFC performance-to-score engine. Team-sport inputs do not apply to bout outcomes.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "All four configuration outputs explicitly unavailable; no numerical arithmetic or agreement claimed.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas; card starts 2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00. Bout order/times may change.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor venue; no exterior weather scoring adjustment.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "No fresh prices requested before this freeze. Prior exposure disclosed. Complete bout-level paired market must be checked separately.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / no registered scoring engine. Include in coverage ledger; apply ordinary incomplete-market removal only after fresh verification.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" } }, "sources": [ "https://www.ufc.com/news/official-weigh-in-results-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10", "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" ], "tu": null, "football_review": null, "football_supplement": null, "offensive_review": [], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Ilias Bulaid at Erick Visconde", "market": { "id": "401891665", "quotes": [ { "provider": "BetUS", "provider_id": "betus", "url": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:54:12Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "method": "Official bookmaker page read with web tool, current October13 card and paired markets visible; direct shell HTTP403. Bookmaker last-update time unspecified. Source snapshot is not a live quote.", "id": "401891665", "away": "Ilias Bulaid", "home": "Erick Visconde", "away_ml": -150, "home_ml": 120, "total": 2.5, "over_price": 110, "under_price": -140, "away_line": null, "home_line": null, "away_line_price": null, "home_line_price": null, "under_line": 2.5, "spread_complete": false, "spread_applicability": "N/A for bout", "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true, "total_units": "rounds" } ], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": 2.5, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; round total, spread not applicable", "primary_feed_error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401892492", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892492", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1845", "fullName": "Xfinity Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124292", "away_name": "Seattle Kraken", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "15", "home_name": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0761170175804318, 2.937832673198527 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0761170175804318, 2.937832673198527 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0761170175804318, 2.937832673198527 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 2.7560975609756095, 3.207317073170732 ], "current_rates": [ 4.333333333333333, 2.8333333333333335 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 3.048780487804878, 2.9634146341463414 ], "current_rates": [ 1.1428571428571428, 4.0 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8231649999999999, 4.8231649999999995 ], "home": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.912195746817774, 2.9952153662991385 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.912195746817774, 2.9952153662991385 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.912195746817774, 2.9952153662991385 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8231649999999999, 4.8231649999999995 ], "home": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55, "official_team_name": "Seattle Kraken" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4, "official_team_name": "Philadelphia Flyers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8231649999999999, 4.8231649999999995 ], "home": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55, "official_team_name": "Seattle Kraken" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.92682, "pa": 2.91463, "official_team_id": 4, "official_team_name": "Philadelphia Flyers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8231649999999999, 4.8231649999999995 ], "home": [ 1.0304799999999998, 5.03048 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "SEA: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. PHI: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Xfinity Mobile Arena; listed 2026-10-13T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892492", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Seattle Kraken", "home": "Philadelphia Flyers", "start_et": "2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1845", "fullName": "Xfinity Mobile Arena", "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Seattle Kraken", "previous_game": { "id": "401892482", "date": "2026-10-11T21:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1823", "fullName": "Capital One Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124292", "away_name": "Seattle Kraken", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "23", "home_name": "Washington Capitals", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20737.875 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Philadelphia Flyers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892484", "date": "2026-10-11T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1845", "fullName": "Xfinity Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Philadelphia", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "7", "away_name": "Carolina Hurricanes", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "15", "home_name": "Philadelphia Flyers", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20737.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020094, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"player_id": 8478916, "player": "Joey Daccord", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" }, { "team": "SEA", "player_id": 8475831, "player": "Philipp Grubauer", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SEA/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Seattle Kraken", "abbreviation": "SEA", "player": "Jacob Melanson", "player_id": "4894747", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T19:49Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/124292/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.510598+00:00" }, { "team": "Seattle Kraken", "abbreviation": "SEA", "player": "Ryan Lindgren", "player_id": "4271998", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-08T16:38Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/124292/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.510598+00:00" } ], 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"playerId": 8483570, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 11, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 435, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 108.75, "shifts": 78, "shiftsPerGame": 19.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ben Meyers", "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "timeOnIce": 2910, "timeOnIcePerGame": 727.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.30769 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4578, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 763.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Catton", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484800, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 831, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 138.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 9, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.5, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 19.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Berkly Catton", "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "timeOnIce": 5418, "timeOnIcePerGame": 903.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.11304 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892492", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.0761170175804318, 2.937832673198527 ], "Primary": [ 2.912195746817774, 2.9952153662991385 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8482874, "incumbent": "Jacob Melanson", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T19:49Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482874, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482874/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } }, { "assists": 5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 42, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 48, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 13, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Coachella Valley Firebirds" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 10, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Coachella Valley Firebirds" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "9:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 36, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 32, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.060606, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 33, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } }, { "assists": 10, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 28, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 28, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 19, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Coachella Valley Firebirds" } }, { "assists": 4, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 5, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Coachella Valley Firebirds" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482713, "player": "Mackie Samoskevich", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 61, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483524, "player": "Shane Wright", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 682, "PP_seconds": 63, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481554, "player": "Kaapo Kakko", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 634, "PP_seconds": 101, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476905, "player": "Chandler Stephenson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 954, "PP_seconds": 130, "SH_seconds": 12 }, { "player_id": 8482259, "player": "Bobby McMann", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1018, "PP_seconds": 120, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474586, "player": "Jordan Eberle", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 987, "PP_seconds": 106, "SH_seconds": 11 }, { "player_id": 8477919, "player": "Freddy Gaudreau", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 154 }, { "player_id": 8482751, "player": "Ryan Winterton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 566, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8483570, "player": "Ben Meyers", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 691, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8482665, "player": "Matty Beniers", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 806, "PP_seconds": 123, "SH_seconds": 51 }, { "player_id": 8484800, "player": "Berkly Catton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 86, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477955, "player": "Jared McCann", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 767, "PP_seconds": 121, "SH_seconds": 48 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8479324, "incumbent": "Ryan Lindgren", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-08T16:38Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8479324, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479324/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "19:56", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 54, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 36, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.047619, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 42, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Rangers" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Rangers", "fr": "Rangers de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "19:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 18, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.095238, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 21, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "18:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "18:20", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 76, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 60, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.041667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 48, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "12:45", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 7, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477986, "player": "Brandon Montour", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1267, "PP_seconds": 105, "SH_seconds": 106 }, { "player_id": 8479372, "player": "Josh Mahura", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 723, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 57 }, { "player_id": 8482858, "player": "Ryker Evans", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1142, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 55 }, { "player_id": 8478407, "player": "Vince Dunn", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1209, "PP_seconds": 154, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8476457, "player": "Adam Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1335, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 143 }, { "player_id": 8482866, "player": "Ville Ottavainen", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 608, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 11 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020094, "team": "PHI", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 673, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 673.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Cates", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480220, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 134, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 134.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Noah Cates", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 807, "timeOnIcePerGame": 807.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.47058 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 683, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 683.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Acciari", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478569, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 223, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 223.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Noel Acciari", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 906, "timeOnIcePerGame": 906.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.18181 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 681, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 681.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Benoit", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481122, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 277, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 277.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Simon Benoit", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 958, "timeOnIcePerGame": 958.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.42105 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 776, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 776.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Zegras", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481533, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 186, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 186.0, "shTimeOnIce": 3, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Trevor Zegras", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 965, "timeOnIcePerGame": 965.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.78947 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 477, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 477.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Bunting", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478047, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 146, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 146.0, "shTimeOnIce": 2, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "shifts": 14, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Michael Bunting", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 625, "timeOnIcePerGame": 625.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.64285 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 722, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 722.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Barkey", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484142, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 197, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 197.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Denver Barkey", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 919, "timeOnIcePerGame": 919.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.95 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 731, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 731.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Grundstrom", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479336, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Carl Grundstrom", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 731, "timeOnIcePerGame": 731.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.73333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 975, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 975.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Bonk", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484148, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 13.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Oliver Bonk", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 988, "timeOnIcePerGame": 988.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.90909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 698, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 698.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Jiricek", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483460, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 156, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 156.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "David Jiricek", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 854, "timeOnIcePerGame": 854.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.44444 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1075, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1075.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Drysdale", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482142, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 192, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 192.0, "shTimeOnIce": 194, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 194.0, "shifts": 29, "shiftsPerGame": 29.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jamie Drysdale", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 1461, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1461.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.37931 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 761, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 761.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Foerster", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482159, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 199, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 199.0, "shTimeOnIce": 96, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 96.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tyson Foerster", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 1056, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1056.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.28571 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 603, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 603.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Michkov", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484387, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 171, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 171.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matvei Michkov", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 774, "timeOnIcePerGame": 774.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.375 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 711, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 711.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Martone", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485406, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 201, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 201.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Porter Martone", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 912, "timeOnIcePerGame": 912.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.64705 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 744, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 744.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Tippett", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480015, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 161, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 161.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Owen Tippett", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 905, "timeOnIcePerGame": 905.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.63157 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 717, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 717.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Couturier", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476461, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 27, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 27.0, "shTimeOnIce": 253, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 253.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Sean Couturier", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 997, "timeOnIcePerGame": 997.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.34782 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1020, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1020.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Seeler", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476372, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 306, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 306.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nick Seeler", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 1326, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1326.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 665, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 665.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Dvorak", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477989, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 130, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 130.0, "shTimeOnIce": 248, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 248.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Christian Dvorak", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 1043, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1043.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.34782 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1098, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1098.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020086, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Sanheim", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477948, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 21, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 21.0, "shTimeOnIce": 184, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 184.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Travis Sanheim", "teamAbbrev": "PHI", "timeOnIce": 1303, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1303.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.12 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8480220, "player": "Noah Cates", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 673, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8478569, "player": "Noel Acciari", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 223 }, { "player_id": 8481122, "player": "Simon Benoit", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 277 }, { "player_id": 8481533, "player": "Trevor Zegras", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8478047, "player": "Michael Bunting", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 477, "PP_seconds": 146, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8484142, "player": "Denver Barkey", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 722, "PP_seconds": 197, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479336, "player": "Carl Grundstrom", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 731, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484148, "player": "Oliver Bonk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 975, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483460, "player": "David Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 156, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482142, "player": "Jamie Drysdale", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1075, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 194 }, { "player_id": 8482159, "player": "Tyson Foerster", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 199, "SH_seconds": 96 }, { "player_id": 8484387, "player": "Matvei Michkov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 603, "PP_seconds": 171, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485406, "player": "Porter Martone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 711, "PP_seconds": 201, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480015, "player": "Owen Tippett", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 744, "PP_seconds": 161, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476461, "player": "Sean Couturier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 717, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 253 }, { "player_id": 8476372, "player": "Nick Seeler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1020, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 306 }, { "player_id": 8477989, "player": "Christian Dvorak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 665, "PP_seconds": 130, "SH_seconds": 248 }, { "player_id": 8477948, "player": "Travis Sanheim", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1098, "PP_seconds": 21, "SH_seconds": 184 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13810, "PP_seconds": 1800, "SH_seconds": 1920 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8476461, "name": { "default": "S. 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Tippett" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:05", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8484142, "name": { "default": "D. Barkey" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:19", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8479336, "name": { "default": "C. Grundstrom", "cs": "C. Grundstr\u00f6m", "fi": "C. Grundstr\u00f6m", "sk": "C. Grundstr\u00f6m", "sv": "C. Grundstr\u00f6m" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:11", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8485406, "name": { "default": "P. Martone" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:12", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8483460, "name": { "default": "D.Jiricek", "cs": "D.Ji\u0159\u00ed\u010dek", "sk": "D.Ji\u0159\u00ed\u010dek" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:14", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8477948, "name": { "default": "T. Sanheim" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:43", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8482142, "name": { "default": "J. Drysdale" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:21", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8476372, "name": { "default": "N. Seeler" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:06", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8481122, "name": { "default": "S. Benoit" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:58", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020086, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "PHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "playerId": 8484148, "name": { "default": "O. Bonk" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:28", "shifts": 22 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.0761170175804318, 2.937832673198527 ], "Primary": [ 2.912195746817774, 2.9952153662991385 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.823165, 3.03048 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020086/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-11", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8478569, "player": "Noel Acciari", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8484142, "player": "Denver Barkey", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8478047, "player": "Michael Bunting", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8480220, "player": "Noah Cates", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8476461, "player": "Sean Couturier", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8477989, "player": "Christian Dvorak", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8482159, "player": "Tyson Foerster", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8483733, "player": "Nikita Grebenkin", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8478439, "player": "Travis Konecny", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8485406, "player": "Porter Martone", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 8484387, "player": "Matvei Michkov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PHI/current" }, { "team": "PHI", "player_id": 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"points": 20, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "London Knights" } }, { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "13:24", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.388889, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 43, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 17, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.116279, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 43, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 9, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 26, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 20, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 16, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Lehigh Valley Phantoms" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "13:01", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.354839, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.111111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "13:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.333333, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480220, "player": "Noah Cates", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 673, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8478569, "player": "Noel Acciari", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 223 }, { "player_id": 8481533, "player": "Trevor Zegras", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8478047, "player": "Michael Bunting", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 477, "PP_seconds": 146, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8479336, "player": "Carl Grundstrom", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 731, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482159, "player": "Tyson Foerster", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 199, "SH_seconds": 96 }, { "player_id": 8484387, "player": "Matvei Michkov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 603, "PP_seconds": 171, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485406, "player": "Porter Martone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 711, "PP_seconds": 201, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480015, "player": "Owen Tippett", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 744, "PP_seconds": 161, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476461, "player": "Sean Couturier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 717, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 253 }, { "player_id": 8477989, "player": "Christian Dvorak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 665, "PP_seconds": 130, "SH_seconds": 248 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8478439, "incumbent": "Travis Konecny", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T18:01Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478439, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478439/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 52, "avgToi": "20:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.39, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 24, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 53, "plusMinus": -17, "points": 76, "powerPlayGoals": 8, "powerPlayPoints": 17, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.12766, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 3, "shots": 188, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 10, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 13, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Canada" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "International", "pim": 0, "points": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 13, "teamName": { "default": "Team Canada" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "11:15", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 2, "teamName": { "default": "Canada" } }, { "assists": 41, "avgToi": "19:05", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.377358, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 27, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 59, "plusMinus": 14, "points": 68, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 14, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.160714, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 168, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "18:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 26, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.076923, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "16:49", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.75, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480220, "player": "Noah Cates", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 673, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8478569, "player": "Noel Acciari", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 683, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 223 }, { "player_id": 8481533, "player": "Trevor Zegras", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8478047, "player": "Michael Bunting", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 477, "PP_seconds": 146, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8484142, "player": "Denver Barkey", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 722, "PP_seconds": 197, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479336, "player": "Carl Grundstrom", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 731, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482159, "player": "Tyson Foerster", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 199, "SH_seconds": 96 }, { "player_id": 8484387, "player": "Matvei Michkov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 603, "PP_seconds": 171, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485406, "player": "Porter Martone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 711, "PP_seconds": 201, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480015, "player": "Owen Tippett", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 744, "PP_seconds": 161, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476461, "player": "Sean Couturier", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 717, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 253 }, { "player_id": 8477989, "player": "Christian Dvorak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 665, "PP_seconds": 130, "SH_seconds": 248 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8477499, "incumbent": "Rasmus Ristolainen", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T16:51Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8477499, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477499/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "20:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 63, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.04, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 100, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 13, "avgToi": "21:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 44, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 10, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.017241, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 58, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "19:45", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Finland", "cs": "Finsko", "de": "Finnland", "es": "Finlandia", "fi": "Suomi", "fr": "Finlande", "sk": "F\u00ednsko" }, "teamName": { "default": "Finland", "cs": "Finsko", "de": "Finnland", "es": "Finlandia", "fi": "Suomi", "fr": "Finlande", "sk": "F\u00ednsko" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "25:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.055556, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 18, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.25, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481122, "player": "Simon Benoit", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 277 }, { "player_id": 8484148, "player": "Oliver Bonk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 975, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483460, "player": "David Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 156, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482142, "player": "Jamie Drysdale", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1075, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 194 }, { "player_id": 8476372, "player": "Nick Seeler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1020, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 306 }, { "player_id": 8477948, "player": "Travis Sanheim", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1098, "PP_seconds": 21, "SH_seconds": 184 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8481546, "incumbent": "Cam York", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T12:56Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8481546, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481546/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 13, "avgToi": "20:47", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 66, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 26, "plusMinus": -8, "points": 17, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.061538, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 65, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 22, "avgToi": "22:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 74, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 28, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 26, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 7, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.044944, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 89, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "23:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.055556, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 18, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "21:49", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481122, "player": "Simon Benoit", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 681, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 277 }, { "player_id": 8484148, "player": "Oliver Bonk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 975, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483460, "player": "David Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 698, "PP_seconds": 156, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482142, "player": "Jamie Drysdale", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1075, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 194 }, { "player_id": 8476372, "player": "Nick Seeler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1020, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 306 }, { "player_id": 8477948, "player": "Travis Sanheim", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1098, "PP_seconds": 21, "SH_seconds": 184 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers", "market": { "id": "401892492", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892492", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.075767+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.338828+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 200.0, "away_line_price": -245.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -130.0, "under_price": 110.0, "home_ml": -122.0, "away_ml": 102.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.13828434438190484, "combined": 6.013949690778959, "spread_buffer": -1.6382843443819048, "total_difference": 0.5139496907789587 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.13828434438190484, "combined": 6.013949690778959, "spread_buffer": -1.6382843443819048, "total_difference": 0.5139496907789587 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.0830196194813646, "combined": 5.907411113116913, "spread_buffer": -1.4169803805186354, "total_difference": 0.4074111131169129 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.0830196194813646, "combined": 5.907411113116913, "spread_buffer": -1.4169803805186354, 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true, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401898403", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898403", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "3432", "fullName": "Kia Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Orlando", "state": "FL" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "Orlando Magic", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.8170731707317, 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Orlando Magic: Richardson starts with Suggs illness and Black ankle absence; Bane and Isaac also absent in latest reference. All observed October11 shots and creation belong to Richardson/Carter/Davison and current teammates. Return branches use earlier actual preseason rotations; no DTD converted to OUT. Cleveland Cavaliers: Allen/Mobley/Harden/Mitchell/Watson October11 first unit intact in observed reference. Diop and Tomlin dated DTD flags distinct from zero-minute coach decisions. Diop/Yaacov unreturned NBA history has no assumed zero ability or invented return workload.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2792 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Kia Center; listed 2026-10-13T23:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs CLE 7:00 pm ET Kia Center Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only.", "details": { "event_id": "401898403", "sport": "NBA", "away": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "home": "Orlando Magic", "start_et": "2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3432", "fullName": "Kia Center", "address": { "city": "Orlando", "state": "FL" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.365786+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612753/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs CLE 7:00 pm ET Kia Center Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "previous_game": { "id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "3417", "fullName": "Rocket Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "OH" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "Orlando Magic", "away_score": 105.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "home_score": 119.0, "day": 20737.9375 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Orlando Magic", "previous_game": { "id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "3417", "fullName": "Rocket Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Cleveland", "state": "OH" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "Orlando Magic", "away_score": 105.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "home_score": 119.0, "day": 20737.9375 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"player_id": "4576085", "player": "JD Davison", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4593034", "player": "Alex Morales", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.867768595041323, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. 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"creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "3133635", "player": "Jevon Carter", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.07949790794979, "creation_assist_share": 0.17142857142857143, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6443298969072165, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4576085", "player": "JD Davison", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0418410041841, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.10245901639344263, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4593034", "player": "Alex Morales", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 24.10041841004184, "creation_assist_share": 0.05714285714285714, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 5.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.3401360544217687, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. 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"https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "1-1", "FG": "4-7", "TO": "4", "3PT": "1-2", "AST": "3", "PTS": "10", "MIN": "15", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4702382", "player": "Tristan da Silva", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "1-2", "FG": "6-14", "TO": "1", "3PT": "4-11", "AST": "2", "PTS": "17", "MIN": "24", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4277847", "player": "Wendell Carter Jr.", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-4", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "2", "PTS": "4", 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"Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4397204", "player": "Colin Castleton", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "6", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "3133635", "player": "Jevon Carter", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-5", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "4", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "19", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4576085", "player": "JD Davison", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": 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"preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "5107251", "player": "Izaiyah Nelson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4066320", "player": "Desmond Bane", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4432165", "player": "Jalen Suggs", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4712849", "player": "Anthony Black", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh rendered October Trade filter empty; September both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 115.8170731707317, 117.07926829268294 ], "Primary": [ 114.20365246437761, 113.5884636448988 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612753/magic", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions" ], "findings": "Richardson starts with Suggs illness and Black ankle absence; Bane and Isaac also absent in latest reference. All observed October11 shots and creation belong to Richardson/Carter/Davison and current teammates. 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"conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4565201", "player": "Malaki Branham", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.909090909090908, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.7172131147540983, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5214637", "player": "Noah Penda", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.17857142857142858, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3133635", "player": "Jevon Carter", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.84297520661157, 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"19", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Orlando Magic", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4065654/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "134-324", "fieldGoalPct": "41.4", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "39-151", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "25.8", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "73-107", "freeThrowPct": "68.2", "offensiveRebounds": "120", "assists": "40", "turnovers": "33", "points": "380" }, { "player_id": "4065654", "player": "Jonathan Isaac", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "19", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Orlando Magic", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4065654/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "46-109", "fieldGoalPct": "42.2", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "7-38", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "18.4", 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"current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4065654", "player": "Jonathan Isaac", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898391", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4065654", "player": "Jonathan Isaac", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "PERSONAL", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898391" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4432573", "player": "Paolo Banchero", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 17.85123966942149, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.15, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 10.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "4566434", "player": "Franz Wagner", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.87603305785124, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6428571428571429, "reference_TS": 0.6720430107526881, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4702382", "player": "Tristan da Silva", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 23.801652892561982, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5714285714285714, "reference_TS": 0.5712365591397849, "conditional_FGA": 14.0, "conditional_3PA": 11.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5239561", "player": "Jase Richardson", "reference_minutes": 26.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 25.785123966942148, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5555555555555556, "reference_TS": 0.5813953488372093, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "4278075", "player": "Kevin Knox II", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4781420765027322, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4278572", "player": "Jamal Cain", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.84297520661157, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6428571428571429, "reference_TS": 0.6979695431472082, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4565201", "player": "Malaki Branham", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.909090909090908, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.7172131147540983, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5214637", "player": "Noah Penda", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.17857142857142858, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3133635", "player": "Jevon Carter", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.84297520661157, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2, "reference_TS": 0.2, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4576085", "player": "JD Davison", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4593034", "player": "Alex Morales", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.867768595041323, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "5107251", "incumbent": "Izaiyah Nelson", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-09-28T21:33Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "5107251", "player": "Izaiyah Nelson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898391", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "5107251", "player": "Izaiyah Nelson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898391" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4432573", "player": "Paolo Banchero", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 17.85123966942149, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.15, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 10.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "4566434", "player": "Franz Wagner", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.87603305785124, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6428571428571429, "reference_TS": 0.6720430107526881, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4702382", "player": "Tristan da Silva", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 23.801652892561982, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5714285714285714, "reference_TS": 0.5712365591397849, "conditional_FGA": 14.0, "conditional_3PA": 11.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5239561", "player": "Jase Richardson", "reference_minutes": 26.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 25.785123966942148, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5555555555555556, "reference_TS": 0.5813953488372093, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "4278075", "player": "Kevin Knox II", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 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0.625, "reference_TS": 0.7172131147540983, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5214637", "player": "Noah Penda", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.17857142857142858, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3133635", "player": "Jevon Carter", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.84297520661157, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2, "reference_TS": 0.2, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4576085", "player": "JD Davison", 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Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4432165", "incumbent": "Jalen Suggs", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T21:26Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4432165", "player": "Jalen Suggs", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "19", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Orlando Magic", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432165/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "35", "gamesStarted": "35", "avgMinutes": "28.6", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "5.6-13.7", "fieldGoalPct": "41.0", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.2-6.9", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "31.4", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "2.8-3.1", "freeThrowPct": "88.2", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.7", "avgAssists": "3.7", "avgTurnovers": "2.9", "avgPoints": "16.2" }, { "player_id": "4432165", "player": "Jalen Suggs", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "19", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Orlando Magic", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432165/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "57", "gamesStarted": "56", "avgMinutes": "27.6", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "4.9-11.4", "fieldGoalPct": "43.5", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.1-6.3", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "33.9", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "1.8-2.1", "freeThrowPct": "85.5", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.6", "avgAssists": "5.5", "avgTurnovers": "2.7", "avgPoints": "13.8" }, { "player_id": "4432165", "player": "Jalen Suggs", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "19", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Orlando Magic", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432165/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "197-481", "fieldGoalPct": "41.0", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "76-242", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "31.4", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "97-110", "freeThrowPct": "88.2", "offensiveRebounds": "23", "assists": "129", "turnovers": "102", "points": "567" }, { "player_id": "4432165", "player": "Jalen Suggs", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "19", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Orlando Magic", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432165/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "282-649", "fieldGoalPct": "43.5", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "122-360", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "33.9", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "100-117", "freeThrowPct": "85.5", "offensiveRebounds": "36", "assists": "312", "turnovers": "152", "points": "786" }, { "player_id": "4432165", "player": "Jalen Suggs", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "19", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Orlando Magic", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432165/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.3", "scoringEfficiency": "1.179", "shootingEfficiency": "0.49" }, { "player_id": "4432165", "player": "Jalen Suggs", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "19", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Orlando Magic", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432165/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.1", "scoringEfficiency": "1.211", "shootingEfficiency": "0.53" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4432165", "player": "Jalen Suggs", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898391", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Orlando Magic", "player_id": "4432165", "player": "Jalen Suggs", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "DID NOT DRESS - INJURY/ILLNESS", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898391" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4432573", "player": "Paolo Banchero", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 17.85123966942149, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.15, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 10.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "4566434", "player": "Franz Wagner", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.87603305785124, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6428571428571429, "reference_TS": 0.6720430107526881, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4702382", "player": "Tristan da Silva", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 23.801652892561982, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5714285714285714, "reference_TS": 0.5712365591397849, "conditional_FGA": 14.0, "conditional_3PA": 11.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5239561", "player": "Jase Richardson", "reference_minutes": 26.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 25.785123966942148, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5555555555555556, "reference_TS": 0.5813953488372093, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "4278075", "player": "Kevin Knox II", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4781420765027322, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4278572", "player": "Jamal Cain", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.84297520661157, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6428571428571429, "reference_TS": 0.6979695431472082, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4565201", "player": "Malaki Branham", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.909090909090908, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.7172131147540983, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5214637", "player": "Noah Penda", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.17857142857142858, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3133635", "player": "Jevon Carter", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.84297520661157, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2, "reference_TS": 0.2, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4576085", "player": "JD Davison", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4593034", "player": "Alex Morales", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.867768595041323, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." } ] }, { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401898403", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "rotation": [ { "player_id": "4066328", "player": "Jarrett Allen", "reference_minutes": 25.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 24.896265560165975, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.4375, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4432158", "player": "Evan Mobley", "reference_minutes": 27.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 26.887966804979254, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS": 0.501432664756447, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 9.0, "conditional_2PA": 9.0 }, { "player_id": "3992", "player": "James Harden", "reference_minutes": 26.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 25.892116182572614, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.85, "reference_TS": 0.8595988538681948, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 9.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3908809", "player": "Donovan Mitchell", "reference_minutes": 26.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 25.892116182572614, "creation_assist_share": 0.25, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3888888888888889, "reference_TS": 0.4910714285714286, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4576087", "player": "Peyton Watson", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.90871369294606, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS": 0.3, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "2995706", "player": "Mario Hezonja", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6885593220338984, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4431734", "player": "Tristan Enaruna", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 7.966804979253112, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.5, "reference_TS": 1.3297872340425532, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "3934723", "player": "Thomas Bryant", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.970954356846473, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5106261", "player": "Ernest Udeh Jr.", "reference_minutes": 5.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 4.979253112033195, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4066757", "player": "Sam Merrill", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.925311203319502, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.8680555555555556, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4683747", "player": "Jaylon Tyson", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6875, "reference_TS": 0.7319819819819819, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4701233", "player": "Craig Porter Jr.", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.946058091286307, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5023693", "player": "Tyrese Proctor", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 7.966804979253112, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5041951", "player": "Meleek Thomas", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.925311203319502, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.2857142857142857, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction.", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [ { "reference_date": "2026-10-08T23:00Z", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "4066328", "player": "Jarrett Allen", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.6, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4432158", "player": "Evan Mobley", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.6329113924050632, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3908809", "player": "Donovan Mitchell", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5901287553648068, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "4576087", "player": "Peyton Watson", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5952380952380952, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4683747", "player": "Jaylon Tyson", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8125, "reference_TS": 0.8293838862559242, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "2995706", "player": "Mario Hezonja", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.35714285714285715, "reference_TS": 0.35714285714285715, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4431734", "player": "Tristan Enaruna", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8571428571428571, "reference_TS": 0.8736559139784946, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4593815", "player": "Rashaun Agee", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.95435684647303, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6302521008403361, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4702099", "player": "Zack Austin", "reference_minutes": 1.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 0.995850622406639, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5177362", "player": "Riley Minix", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2, "reference_TS": 0.2, "conditional_FGA": 10.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3934723", "player": "Thomas Bryant", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.962655601659751, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.875, "reference_TS": 0.819672131147541, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5106261", "player": "Ernest Udeh Jr.", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4066757", "player": "Sam Merrill", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.95850622406639, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4701233", "player": "Craig Porter Jr.", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.933609958506224, "creation_assist_share": 0.3125, "reference_AST": 10.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4898369", "player": "Curtis Jones", "reference_minutes": 1.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 0.995850622406639, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5023693", "player": "Tyrese Proctor", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5041951", "player": "Meleek Thomas", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 22.904564315352697, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4230769230769231, "reference_TS": 0.4230769230769231, "conditional_FGA": 13.0, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [ "Khalifa Diop", "Nae'Qwan Tomlin" ], "return_rule": "No current role sample => return opportunity unestimated; do not invent minutes." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4066328", "player": "Jarrett Allen", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "3-8", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-2", "AST": "1", "PTS": "7", "MIN": "25", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4432158", "player": "Evan Mobley", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "8-9", "FG": "3-10", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "2", "PTS": "14", "MIN": "27", "OREB": "3" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "3992", "player": "James Harden", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "7-9", "FG": "7-10", "TO": "2", "3PT": "3-5", "AST": "2", "PTS": "24", "MIN": "26", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "3908809", "player": "Donovan Mitchell", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "4-5", "FG": "3-9", "TO": "3", "3PT": "1-5", "AST": "6", "PTS": "11", "MIN": "26", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4576087", "player": "Peyton Watson", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "3-10", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "1", "PTS": "6", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "2995706", "player": "Mario Hezonja", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "1-1", "FG": "5-9", "TO": "3", "3PT": "2-4", "AST": "2", "PTS": "13", "MIN": "17", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4431734", "player": "Tristan Enaruna", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "1-1", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "5", "MIN": "8", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "3934723", "player": "Thomas Bryant", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "5-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "2-3", "AST": "0", "PTS": "12", "MIN": "7", "OREB": "3" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "5106261", "player": "Ernest Udeh Jr.", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-1", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "5", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4066757", "player": "Sam Merrill", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "2", "3PT": "1-2", "AST": "3", "PTS": "5", "MIN": "18", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4683747", "player": "Jaylon Tyson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "4-8", "TO": "1", "3PT": "3-5", "AST": "1", "PTS": "13", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4701233", "player": "Craig Porter Jr.", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "0-2", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "4", "PTS": "0", "MIN": "13", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "5023693", "player": "Tyrese Proctor", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-3", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-3", "AST": "0", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "8", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "5041951", "player": "Meleek Thomas", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-7", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "2", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "18", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4593815", "player": "Rashaun Agee", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4702099", "player": "Zack Austin", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4702528", "player": "Jaxson Robinson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "5106268", "player": "Nae'Qwan Tomlin", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "5177362", "player": "Riley Minix", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4997530", "player": "Khalifa Diop", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" }, { "event_id": "401898401", "date": "2026-10-11T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "5457832", "player": "Noam Yaacov", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh rendered October Trade filter empty; September both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 115.8170731707317, 117.07926829268294 ], "Primary": [ 114.20365246437761, 113.5884636448988 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 117.310975, 115.57926950000001 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612739/cavaliers", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898401", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions" ], "findings": "Allen/Mobley/Harden/Mitchell/Watson October11 first unit intact in observed reference. Diop and Tomlin dated DTD flags distinct from zero-minute coach decisions. Diop/Yaacov unreturned NBA history has no assumed zero ability or invented return workload.", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4593815", "player": "Rashaun Agee", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4066328", "player": "Jarrett Allen", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4702099", "player": "Zack Austin", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "3934723", "player": "Thomas Bryant", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4997530", "player": "Khalifa Diop", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T21:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4431734", "player": "Tristan Enaruna", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "3992", "player": "James Harden", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "2995706", "player": "Mario Hezonja", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4898369", "player": "Curtis Jones", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4066757", "player": "Sam Merrill", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "5177362", "player": "Riley Minix", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "3908809", "player": "Donovan Mitchell", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4432158", "player": "Evan Mobley", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "player_id": "4701233", "player": "Craig Porter Jr.", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/5/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "5", "team": "Cleveland Cavaliers", 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17.925311203319502, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.8680555555555556, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4683747", "player": "Jaylon Tyson", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6875, "reference_TS": 0.7319819819819819, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4701233", "player": "Craig Porter Jr.", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.946058091286307, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5023693", "player": "Tyrese Proctor", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 7.966804979253112, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5041951", "player": "Meleek Thomas", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.925311203319502, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.2857142857142857, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic", "market": { "id": "401898403", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898403", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.120540+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.428691+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 229.5, "under_line": 229.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 102.0, "away_ml": -122.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 229.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.2621951219512368, "combined": 232.89634146341464, "spread_buffer": 2.762195121951237, "total_difference": 3.396341463414643 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.2621951219512368, "combined": 232.89634146341464, "spread_buffer": 2.762195121951237, "total_difference": 3.396341463414643 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.6151888194788171, "combined": 227.7921161092764, "spread_buffer": 0.8848111805211829, "total_difference": -1.7078838907235934 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.6151888194788171, "combined": 227.7921161092764, "spread_buffer": 0.8848111805211829, "total_difference": -1.7078838907235934 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.7317054999999897, "combined": 232.8902445, "spread_buffer": -0.23170549999998968, "total_difference": 3.3902444999999943 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.7317054999999897, "combined": 232.8902445, "spread_buffer": -0.23170549999998968, "total_difference": 3.3902444999999943 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.7317054999999897, "combined": 232.8902445, "spread_buffer": -0.23170549999998968, "total_difference": 3.3902444999999943 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.7317054999999897, "combined": 232.8902445, "spread_buffer": -0.23170549999998968, "total_difference": 3.3902444999999943 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401908944", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401908944", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1838", "fullName": "Scotiabank Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Toronto", "state": "ON" } }, "away": "18", "away_name": "New York Knicks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Toronto Raptors", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 116.45121951219512, 110.1219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 114.63414634146342, 111.8048780487805 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2792, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "908b352170b64d5da6773996ab99d15522ad83b83d62bcef1698642fdf619d5b" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.695368619799016, "mean_margin_error": 14.866714897441717, "mean_total_error": 10.858078193211853, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.45122, "pa": 110.12195 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.45122, "pa": 110.12195 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.63415, "pa": 111.80488 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.12805, 134.12805 ], "home": [ 92.37805, 132.37805 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Toronto Raptors: September Leonard acquisition and outgoing Dick/Ingram reviewed on both sides. Current actual reference has Walter/Barrett/Barnes/Poeltl/Quickley; Leonard has no current role sample and a return is unestimated rather than invented. Hepburn waived October12 and removed; Jackson-Davis/Graves return not confirmed. New York Knicks: Latest October12 Anunoby/Towns/Hart/Bridges/Brunson reference retained. All five new DTD flags may reflect back-to-back management; full first-unit-rest and previous-rotation branches are sensitivities, not five confirmed injuries.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2792 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. Projected winners disagree; preserve each engine direction. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Scotiabank Arena; listed 2026-10-13T23:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs NYK 7:00 pm ET Scotiabank Arena Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only.", "details": { "event_id": "401908944", "sport": "NBA", "away": "New York Knicks", "home": "Toronto Raptors", "start_et": "2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1838", "fullName": "Scotiabank Arena", "address": { "city": "Toronto", "state": "ON" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 7:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 7:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.365786+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612761/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs NYK 7:00 pm ET Scotiabank Arena Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "New York Knicks", "previous_game": { "id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Minnesota Timberwolves", "away_score": 122.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "New York Knicks", "home_score": 104.0, "day": 20738.979166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "previous_game": { "id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1833", "fullName": "Rogers Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Vancouver", "state": "BC" } }, "away": "12", "away_name": "LA Clippers", "away_score": 106.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Toronto Raptors", "home_score": 114.0, "day": 20736.9375 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [ "Nate Bittle", "Allen Graves", "Trayce Jackson-Davis", "Alijah Martin" ], "return_rule": "No current role sample => return opportunity unestimated; do not invent minutes." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4395625", "player": "RJ Barrett", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "3-5", "FG": "7-11", "TO": "1", "3PT": "3-5", "AST": "5", "PTS": "20", "MIN": "23", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4433134", "player": "Scottie Barnes", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "3-4", "FG": "4-10", "TO": "2", "3PT": "1-3", "AST": "3", "PTS": "12", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "6" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "3134908", "player": "Jakob Poeltl", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "3-6", "FG": "3-4", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "1", "PTS": "9", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4395724", "player": "Immanuel Quickley", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "1-2", "FG": "6-8", "TO": "0", "3PT": "5-6", "AST": "4", "PTS": "18", "MIN": "19", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4684272", "player": "Ja'Kobe Walter", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-4", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "1", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "19", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "2993874", "player": "Kyle Anderson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "0-2", "FG": "0-4", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "1", "PTS": "0", "MIN": "16", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4898260", "player": "Tyson Degenhart", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "0-2", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-2", "AST": "0", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "12", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "5093267", "player": "Collin Murray-Boyles", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "5-7", "FG": "4-9", "TO": "4", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "3", "PTS": "13", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4395623", "player": "Trey Jemison III", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "0-2", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "1", "PTS": "0", "MIN": "8", "OREB": "4" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4279143", "player": "Tyreke Key", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-1", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "7", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4397784", "player": "Malachi Smith", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-5", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-2", "AST": "4", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "13", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4432241", "player": "Jamal Shead", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "3-3", "FG": "5-9", "TO": "4", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "2", "PTS": "13", "MIN": "19", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4432737", "player": "Jaden Bradley", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "3-4", "TO": "4", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "8", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4433138", "player": "Nimari Burnett", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "4-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "2-3", "AST": "0", "PTS": "10", "MIN": "16", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4590360", "player": "Chucky Hepburn", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "0-0", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "0", "MIN": "1", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401902645", "date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4431893", "player": "Jamison Battle", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh rendered October Trade filter empty; September both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "Primary": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612761/raptors", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401902645", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions" ], "findings": "September Leonard acquisition and outgoing Dick/Ingram reviewed on both sides. Current actual reference has Walter/Barrett/Barnes/Poeltl/Quickley; Leonard has no current role sample and a return is unestimated rather than invented. Hepburn waived October12 and removed; Jackson-Davis/Graves return not confirmed.", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "2993874", "player": "Kyle Anderson", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4433134", "player": "Scottie Barnes", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4395625", "player": "RJ Barrett", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4431893", "player": "Jamison Battle", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4432586", "player": "Nate Bittle", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T20:58Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4432737", "player": "Jaden Bradley", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4433138", "player": "Nimari Burnett", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4898260", "player": "Tyson Degenhart", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "5149115", "player": "Allen Graves", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T20:37Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4432190", "player": "Andre Jackson Jr.", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4431684", "player": "Trayce Jackson-Davis", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T20:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4395623", "player": "Trey Jemison III", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4279143", "player": "Tyreke Key", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "6450", "player": "Kawhi Leonard", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4702656", "player": "Alijah Martin", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T21:01Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "5093267", "player": "Collin Murray-Boyles", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "3134908", "player": "Jakob Poeltl", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4395724", "player": "Immanuel Quickley", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4432241", "player": "Jamal Shead", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4397784", "player": "Malachi Smith", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "28", "team": "Toronto Raptors", "player_id": "4684272", "player": "Ja'Kobe Walter", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/28/roster?season=2027" } ], "reference_date": "2026-10-10T22:30Z", "comparison_player_ids": [ "2993874", "3134908", "4279143", "4395623", "4395625", "4395724", "4397784", "4431684", "4431893", "4432190", "4432241", "4432586", "4432737", "4433134", "4433138", "4590360", "4684272", "4702656", "4898260", "5093267", "5149115", "6450" ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "player_id": "2993874", "player": "Kyle Anderson", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "9", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Toronto Raptors", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/2993874/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "36", "gamesStarted": "3", "avgMinutes": "15.0", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.1-4.7", "fieldGoalPct": "45.0", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.5-1.4", "threePointFieldGoalPct": 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"2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": null, "category": "averages", "current_team": "Toronto Raptors", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/2993874/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "61", "gamesStarted": "4", "avgMinutes": "16.4", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.3-5.0", "fieldGoalPct": "46.9", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.4-1.1", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "35.7", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "0.8-1.1", "freeThrowPct": "73.8", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.9", "avgAssists": "2.4", "avgTurnovers": "0.6", "avgPoints": "5.9" }, { "player_id": "2993874", "player": "Kyle Anderson", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "26", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Toronto Raptors", "source": 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12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.87603305785124, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.917355371900827, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.2577319587628866, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.9421487603305785, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.892561983471074, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS": 0.3, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.3676470588235294, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction.", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [ { "reference_date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "3934719", "player": "OG Anunoby", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.117647058823529, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.42857142857142855, "reference_TS": 0.6224066390041494, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 15.126050420168067, "creation_assist_share": 0.08695652173913043, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.625, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 13.109243697478991, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 15.126050420168067, "creation_assist_share": 0.13043478260869565, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2, "reference_TS": 0.25510204081632654, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3934672", "player": "Jalen Brunson", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 15.126050420168067, "creation_assist_share": 0.13043478260869565, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.6756756756756757, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.050420168067227, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS": 0.5681818181818182, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.067226890756302, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.15126050420168, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.142857142857142, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "6585", "player": "Andre Drummond", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.100840336134453, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.41666666666666663, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.050420168067227, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4432808", "player": "James Wiseman", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.07563025210084, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.6024096385542168, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "2528426", "player": "Jordan Clarkson", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.117647058823529, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.3073770491803279, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "3914044", "player": "Landry Shamet", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.092436974789916, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.625, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4065670", "player": "Bruce Brown", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.084033613445378, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.067226890756302, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.1288659793814433, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.084033613445378, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.5102040816326531, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.100840336134453, "creation_assist_share": 0.13043478260869565, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.142857142857142, "creation_assist_share": 0.21739130434782608, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.45955882352941174, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.067226890756302, "creation_assist_share": 0.13043478260869565, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.75, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." }, { "reference_date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "3934719", "player": "OG Anunoby", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6097560975609757, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.35714285714285715, "reference_TS": 0.4566210045662101, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6875, "reference_TS": 0.7319819819819819, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.16666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3934672", "player": "Jalen Brunson", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5416666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.522508038585209, "conditional_FGA": 12.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.75, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3125, "reference_TS": 0.3125, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "6585", "player": "Andre Drummond", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 5.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.4629629629629629, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4432808", "player": "James Wiseman", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "2528426", "player": "Jordan Clarkson", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7, "reference_TS": 0.7, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3914044", "player": "Landry Shamet", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.8248730964467005, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4065670", "player": "Bruce Brown", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.3807106598984772, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.35714285714285715, "reference_TS": 0.4032258064516129, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." }, { "scenario": "All-five starter rest hypothetical after new DTD flags; not confirmed OUT", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.727272727272727, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 5.625, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.625 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 25.454545454545453, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.9020618556701031, "conditional_FGA": 5.333333333333333, "conditional_3PA": 5.333333333333333, "conditional_FTA": 6.444444444444445, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.636363636363637, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.7777777777777777, "conditional_3PA": 1.7777777777777777, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "6585", "player": "Andre Drummond", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 3.75, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.444444444444445, "conditional_2PA": 3.75 }, { "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.727272727272727, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 9.375, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 9.375 }, { "player_id": "2528426", "player": "Jordan Clarkson", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.181818181818183, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 5.527777777777778, "conditional_3PA": 1.7777777777777777, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.75 }, { "player_id": "3914044", "player": "Landry Shamet", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 3.5555555555555554, "conditional_3PA": 3.5555555555555554, "conditional_FTA": 6.444444444444445, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 27.272727272727273, "creation_assist_share": 0.18181818181818182, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 14.805555555555555, "conditional_3PA": 3.5555555555555554, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 11.25 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.181818181818183, "creation_assist_share": 0.09090909090909091, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.2577319587628866, "conditional_FGA": 5.333333333333333, "conditional_3PA": 5.333333333333333, "conditional_FTA": 6.444444444444445, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.727272727272727, "creation_assist_share": 0.18181818181818182, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 3.6527777777777777, "conditional_3PA": 1.7777777777777777, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.875 }, { "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.636363636363637, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS": 0.3, "conditional_FGA": 8.98611111111111, "conditional_3PA": 7.111111111111111, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.875 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.36363636363636365, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.3676470588235294, "conditional_FGA": 9.277777777777779, "conditional_3PA": 1.7777777777777777, "conditional_FTA": 3.2222222222222223, "conditional_2PA": 7.5 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jalen Brunson", "Jaylen Martin", "Josh Hart", "Karl-Anthony Towns", "Mikal Bridges", "Miles Kelly", "OG Anunoby", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [], "return_rule": "No current role sample => return opportunity unestimated; do not invent minutes." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3934719", "player": "OG Anunoby", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "6-6", "FG": "4-8", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-3", "AST": "1", "PTS": "15", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "4-4", "FG": "3-6", "TO": "3", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "4", "PTS": "11", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "3", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "3-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-2", "AST": "2", "PTS": "9", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3934672", "player": "Jalen Brunson", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "7-8", "FG": "6-13", "TO": "2", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "3", "PTS": "20", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-3", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "7", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "1-2", "FG": "2-3", "TO": "0", "3PT": "2-3", "AST": "1", "PTS": "7", "MIN": "14", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "0-1", "TO": "3", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "0", "MIN": "13", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "6585", "player": "Andre Drummond", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "12", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "5-5", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "10", "MIN": "7", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "2528426", "player": "Jordan Clarkson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-3", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "5", "MIN": "10", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3914044", "player": "Landry Shamet", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "0-2", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-2", "AST": "1", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "12", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-8", "TO": "3", "3PT": "0-2", "AST": "2", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "15", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "0-3", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "1", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "10", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "2", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "7", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-5", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "0", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "13", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "0-1", "FG": "2-5", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "4", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "12", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4838721", "player": "Tyler Nickel", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4432808", "player": "James Wiseman", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4065670", "player": "Bruce Brown", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124" }, { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh rendered October Trade filter empty; September both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 112.6280487804878, 113.8780487804878 ], "Primary": [ 112.46230812370625, 110.00336083412412 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 114.12805, 112.37805 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612752/knicks", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions" ], "findings": "Latest October12 Anunoby/Towns/Hart/Bridges/Brunson reference retained. All five new DTD flags may reflect back-to-back management; full first-unit-rest and previous-rotation branches are sensitivities, not five confirmed injuries.", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4683730", "player": "Jaden Akins", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3934719", "player": "OG Anunoby", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T02:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T02:47Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/18/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "18", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "4065670", "player": "Bruce Brown", "position": "G", 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"season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3147657/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "472-963", "fieldGoalPct": "49.0", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "156-420", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "37.1", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "81-98", "freeThrowPct": "82.7", "offensiveRebounds": "79", "assists": "304", "turnovers": "83", "points": "1181" }, { "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3147657/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.3", "scoringEfficiency": "1.221", "shootingEfficiency": "0.57" }, { "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3147657/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "3.7", "scoringEfficiency": "1.226", "shootingEfficiency": "0.57" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3147657", "player": "Mikal Bridges", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "3-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-2", "AST": "2", "PTS": "9", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401906508", "date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", 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{ "player_id": "3914285", "player": "Drew Eubanks", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.9421487603305785, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.884297520661157, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.9020618556701031, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.892561983471074, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "2528426", "player": "Jordan Clarkson", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.917355371900827, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "3914044", "player": "Landry Shamet", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.87603305785124, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.917355371900827, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.2577319587628866, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.9421487603305785, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4431823", "player": "Miles McBride", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.892561983471074, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS": 0.3, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4433225", "player": "Tyler Kolek", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.3676470588235294, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Participated in reference; DTD/reported status conditional, not OUT. Alternate observed or explicit rest branches retained.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "3062679", "incumbent": "Josh Hart", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T02:40Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0 }, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "averages", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3062679/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "77", "gamesStarted": "77", "avgMinutes": "37.6", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "5.2-10.0", "fieldGoalPct": "52.5", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.1-3.3", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "33.3", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "2.1-2.7", "freeThrowPct": "77.6", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "2.1", "avgAssists": "5.9", "avgTurnovers": "2.1", "avgPoints": "13.6" }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "averages", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3062679/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "66", "gamesStarted": "52", "avgMinutes": "30.2", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "4.6-9.0", "fieldGoalPct": "50.8", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.5-3.7", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "41.3", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "1.4-1.9", "freeThrowPct": "72.0", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "1.4", "avgAssists": "4.8", "avgTurnovers": "1.9", "avgPoints": "12.0" }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3062679/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "404-770", "fieldGoalPct": "52.5", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "84-252", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "33.3", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "159-205", "freeThrowPct": "77.6", "offensiveRebounds": "161", "assists": "453", "turnovers": "158", "points": "1051" }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3062679/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "301-592", "fieldGoalPct": "50.8", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "100-242", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "41.3", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "90-125", "freeThrowPct": "72.0", "offensiveRebounds": "93", "assists": "317", "turnovers": "128", "points": "792" }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3062679/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.9", "scoringEfficiency": "1.365", "shootingEfficiency": "0.58" }, { "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3062679/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.5", "scoringEfficiency": "1.338", "shootingEfficiency": "0.59" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh Hart", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "3", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401906508", "date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3062679", "player": "Josh 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"player": "Drew Eubanks", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.9421487603305785, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5211983", "player": "Pacome Dadiet", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.884297520661157, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.9020618556701031, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5289900", "player": "Mohamed Diawara", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.892561983471074, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, 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"conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4277869", "player": "Jose Alvarado", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.87603305785124, "creation_assist_share": 0.08333333333333333, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4397018", "player": "Ochai Agbaji", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.917355371900827, "creation_assist_share": 0.041666666666666664, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.2577319587628866, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4411057", "player": "Kevin McCullar Jr.", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, 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Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Participated in reference; DTD/reported status conditional, not OUT. Alternate observed or explicit rest branches retained.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "3136195", "incumbent": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-13T02:47Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.16666666666666666, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5833333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.7087628865979382, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0 }, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "averages", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "72", "gamesStarted": "72", "avgMinutes": "35.0", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "8.9-16.9", "fieldGoalPct": "52.6", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.0-4.7", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "42.0", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "4.7-5.7", "freeThrowPct": "82.9", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "2.9", "avgAssists": "3.1", "avgTurnovers": "2.7", "avgPoints": "24.4" }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "averages", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "75", "gamesStarted": "75", "avgMinutes": "31.0", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "6.9-13.8", "fieldGoalPct": "50.1", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.5-4.1", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "36.8", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "4.8-5.5", "freeThrowPct": "85.8", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "3.1", "avgAssists": "3.0", "avgTurnovers": "2.5", "avgPoints": "20.1" }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "639-1215", "fieldGoalPct": "52.6", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "142-338", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "42.0", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "339-409", "freeThrowPct": "82.9", "offensiveRebounds": "212", "assists": "222", "turnovers": "192", "points": "1759" }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "totals", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "517-1032", "fieldGoalPct": "50.1", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "113-307", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "36.8", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "357-416", "freeThrowPct": "85.8", "offensiveRebounds": "233", "assists": "226", "turnovers": "187", "points": "1504" }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.2", "scoringEfficiency": "1.448", "shootingEfficiency": "0.58" }, { "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "18", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "New York Knicks", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3136195/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.2", "scoringEfficiency": "1.457", "shootingEfficiency": "0.56" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401914124", "date": "2026-10-12T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914124", "FT": "4-4", "FG": "3-6", "TO": "3", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "4", "PTS": "11", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401906508", "date": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401906508", "FT": "3-4", "FG": "2-7", "TO": "3", "3PT": "1-3", "AST": "3", "PTS": "8", "MIN": "19", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401914101", "date": "2026-10-05T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "New York Knicks", "player_id": "3136195", "player": "Karl-Anthony Towns", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914101", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-4", "TO": "2", "3PT": "1-3", "AST": "2", "PTS": "5", "MIN": "15", "OREB": "0" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "6585", "player": "Andre Drummond", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.900826446280991, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4065673", "player": "Tony Bradley", "reference_minutes": 7.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.9421487603305785, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Participated in reference; DTD/reported status conditional, not OUT. Alternate observed or explicit rest branches retained.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors", "market": { "id": "401908944", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908944", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.120540+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.338828+00:00", "home_line": -10.5, "away_line": 10.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 218.5, "under_line": 218.5, "over_price": -115.0, "under_price": -105.0, "home_ml": -440.0, "away_ml": 340.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -10.5, "average_total": 218.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.25, "combined": 226.5060975609756, "spread_buffer": -9.25, "total_difference": 8.006097560975604 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.25, "combined": 226.5060975609756, "spread_buffer": -9.25, "total_difference": 8.006097560975604 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -2.4589472895821274, "combined": 222.46566895783036, "spread_buffer": -12.958947289582127, "total_difference": 3.96566895783036 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -2.4589472895821274, "combined": 222.46566895783036, "spread_buffer": -12.958947289582127, "total_difference": 3.96566895783036 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.75, "combined": 226.5061, "spread_buffer": -12.25, "total_difference": 8.006100000000004 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.75, "combined": 226.5061, "spread_buffer": -12.25, "total_difference": 8.006100000000004 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.75, "combined": 226.5061, "spread_buffer": -12.25, "total_difference": 8.006100000000004 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.75, "combined": 226.5061, "spread_buffer": -12.25, "total_difference": 8.006100000000004 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401928737", "sport": "UFC", "identity": { "id": "401928737", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": true, "sport": "UFC", "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "None", "home": "None", "away_name": "Aline Pereira", "home_name": "Smilla Sundell", "card_id": "600060741", "start_scope": "Card segment start; exact bout time varies" }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "model", "risk": "No registered validated MMA score engine." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official current card and Week10 weigh-in verify all ten fighters at permitted weights. No new cancellation found at capture. Current rescheduled Bulaid\u2013Visconde bout distinguished from Week8 postponement. No athlete point-score projection.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "No registered validated UFC performance-to-score engine. Team-sport inputs do not apply to bout outcomes.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "All four configuration outputs explicitly unavailable; no numerical arithmetic or agreement claimed.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas; card starts 2026-10-13T19:00:00-04:00. Bout order/times may change.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor venue; no exterior weather scoring adjustment.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "No fresh prices requested before this freeze. Prior exposure disclosed. Complete bout-level paired market must be checked separately.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / no registered scoring engine. Include in coverage ledger; apply ordinary incomplete-market removal only after fresh verification.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" } }, "sources": [ "https://www.ufc.com/news/official-weigh-in-results-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10", "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" ], "tu": null, "football_review": null, "football_supplement": null, "offensive_review": [], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Aline Pereira at Smilla Sundell", "market": { "id": "401928737", "quotes": [ { "provider": "BetUS", "provider_id": "betus", "url": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:54:12Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "method": "Official bookmaker page read with web tool, current October13 card and paired markets visible; direct shell HTTP403. Bookmaker last-update time unspecified. Source snapshot is not a live quote.", "id": "401928737", "away": "Aline Pereira", "home": "Smilla Sundell", "away_ml": 475, "home_ml": -725, "total": 2.5, "over_price": -110, "under_price": -120, "away_line": null, "home_line": null, "away_line_price": null, "home_line_price": null, "under_line": 2.5, "spread_complete": false, "spread_applicability": "N/A for bout", "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true, "total_units": "rounds" } ], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": 2.5, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; round total, spread not applicable", "primary_feed_error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401928738", "sport": "UFC", "identity": { "id": "401928738", "date": "2026-10-13T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": true, "sport": "UFC", "venue": { "id": "6176", "fullName": "Meta APEX", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "away": "None", "home": "None", "away_name": "Will Rentz", "home_name": "Luis Francischinelli", "card_id": "600060741", "start_scope": "Card segment start; 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no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": null, "adjusted_score": null, "conditional_score": null, "applied_delta": null, "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "No registered MMA score engine; no team-score substitution.", "overlay": null, "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "source": "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null }, "ranges": null, "reason": "No registered validated MMA score engine" } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "model", "risk": "No registered validated MMA score engine." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Official current card and Week10 weigh-in verify all ten fighters at permitted weights. 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Bout order/times may change.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "Indoor venue; no exterior weather scoring adjustment.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "No fresh prices requested before this freeze. Prior exposure disclosed. Complete bout-level paired market must be checked separately.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "PASS / no registered scoring engine. Include in coverage ledger; apply ordinary incomplete-market removal only after fresh verification.", "reviewer": "Independent official schedule evidence with parent synthesis; no independent MMA score engine" } }, "sources": [ "https://www.ufc.com/news/official-weigh-in-results-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10", "https://www.ufc.com/news/week-10-preview-dana-whites-contender-series-season-10" ], "tu": null, "football_review": null, "football_supplement": null, "offensive_review": [], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Jason Asher at Greg Foster", "market": { "id": "401928740", "quotes": [ { "provider": "BetUS", "provider_id": "betus", "url": "https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/whites-contender-series/", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:54:12Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:54:13Z", "method": "Official bookmaker page read with web tool, current October13 card and paired markets visible; direct shell HTTP403. Bookmaker last-update time unspecified. Source snapshot is not a live quote.", "id": "401928740", "away": "Jason Asher", "home": "Greg Foster", "away_ml": -195, "home_ml": 165, "total": 1.5, "over_price": -110, "under_price": -120, "away_line": null, "home_line": null, "away_line_price": null, "home_line_price": null, "under_line": 1.5, "spread_complete": false, "spread_applicability": "N/A for bout", "total_complete": true, "moneyline_complete": true, "total_units": "rounds" } ], "average_home_line": null, "average_total": 1.5, "spread_quote_count": 0, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; round total, spread not applicable", "primary_feed_error": "HTTP Error 404: Not Found" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null }, "adjusted": { "margin": null, "combined": null, "spread_buffer": null, "total_difference": null } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] }, "total": { "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable", "reasons": [ "PASS / engine unavailable" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": false, "spread": false, "total": false, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "spread": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ], "total": [ 0, 0, 0, 0 ] } } }, { "id": "401892493", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892493", "date": "2026-10-13T23:15Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "13", "home_name": "New York Rangers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.5365853658536586, 2.817073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 3.2, 2.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 2.902439024390244, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.2857142857142856, 1.8571428571428572 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14, "official_team_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3, "official_team_name": "New York Rangers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.4878, "pa": 2.79268, "official_team_id": 14, "official_team_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3, "official_team_name": "New York Rangers" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.26219, 5.26219 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "TBL: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. NYR: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Madison Square Garden; listed 2026-10-13T23:15Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892493", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "home": "New York Rangers", "start_et": "2026-10-13T19:15:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T23:15Z", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 7:15 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 7:15 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "previous_game": { "id": "401892479", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "12", "home_name": "New York Islanders", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20736.979166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "New York Rangers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892483", "date": "2026-10-11T22:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "13", "home_name": "New York Rangers", "home_score": 6.0, "day": 20737.916666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020095, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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Cernak", "cs": "E. \u010cern\u00e1k", "sk": "E. \u010cern\u00e1k" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:01", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020081, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TBL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020081/boxscore", "playerId": 8482655, "name": { "default": "J. Moser" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:01", "shifts": 22 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "Primary": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020081/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. 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Moser", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8483710, "player": "Dennis Hildeby", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" }, { "team": "TBL", "player_id": 8476883, "player": "Andrei Vasilevskiy", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TBL/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "abbreviation": "TB", "player": "Yanni Gourde", "player_id": "3094261", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T19:18Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/20/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.657038+00:00" }, { "team": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "abbreviation": "TB", "player": "Emil Lilleberg", "player_id": "5146599", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T12:50Z" } ], "source": 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Moser", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 102250, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1294.30379, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.00915 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 46997, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 939.94, "gamesPlayed": 50, "lastName": "Lilleberg", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482929, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 82, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.64, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 4845, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 96.9, "shifts": 1124, "shiftsPerGame": 22.48, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Emil Lilleberg", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 51924, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1038.48, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.19572 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 8061, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 575.78571, "gamesPlayed": 14, "lastName": "Geekie", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483447, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 249, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 17.78571, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 195, "shiftsPerGame": 13.92857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Conor Geekie", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 8310, "timeOnIcePerGame": 593.57142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.61538 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 29615, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 688.72093, "gamesPlayed": 43, "lastName": "James", "otTimeOnIce": 43, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 4.3, "playerId": 8483752, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1787, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 41.55813, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 169, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.93023, "shifts": 654, "shiftsPerGame": 15.2093, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dominic James", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 31571, "timeOnIcePerGame": 734.2093, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.2737 } ], "20262027": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 4105, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 821.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "McDonagh", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8474151, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 12, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 694, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 138.8, "shifts": 101, "shiftsPerGame": 20.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ryan McDonagh", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 4811, "timeOnIcePerGame": 962.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.63366 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4293, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 858.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Carlson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8474590, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1683, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 336.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 2, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.4, "shifts": 101, "shiftsPerGame": 20.2, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "John Carlson", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 5978, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1195.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 59.18811 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3587, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 717.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Hedman", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475167, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 145, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 29.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 466, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 93.2, "shifts": 89, "shiftsPerGame": 17.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Victor Hedman", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 4198, "timeOnIcePerGame": 839.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.16853 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4647, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 929.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Kucherov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476453, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1800, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 360.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 6, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.2, "shifts": 101, "shiftsPerGame": 20.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nikita Kucherov", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 6453, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1290.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 63.89108 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3525, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 705.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Girgensons", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476878, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 20, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 423, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.6, "shifts": 96, "shiftsPerGame": 19.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zemgus Girgensons", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 3968, "timeOnIcePerGame": 793.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.33333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 549, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 549.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Sabourin", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477149, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 20, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 20.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 14, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Scott Sabourin", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 569, "timeOnIcePerGame": 569.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.64285 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4216, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 843.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Guentzel", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477404, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1758, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 351.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 287, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 57.4, "shifts": 113, "shiftsPerGame": 22.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jake Guentzel", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 6261, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1252.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.40707 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4187, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 837.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Point", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478010, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1674, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 334.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 9, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.8, "shifts": 98, "shiftsPerGame": 19.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Brayden Point", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 5870, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1174.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 59.89795 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5093, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1018.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Cernak", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478416, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 12, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 737, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 147.4, "shifts": 128, "shiftsPerGame": 25.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Erik Cernak", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 5842, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1168.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.64062 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4389, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 877.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Cirelli", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478519, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 567, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 113.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 542, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 108.4, "shifts": 122, "shiftsPerGame": 24.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Anthony Cirelli", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 5498, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1099.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.06557 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4445, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 889.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Hagel", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479542, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1621, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 324.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 559, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 111.8, "shifts": 120, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brandon Hagel", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 6625, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1325.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.20833 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2009, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 502.25, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Viel", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479705, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 6, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 46, "shiftsPerGame": 11.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jeff Viel", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 2015, "timeOnIcePerGame": 503.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.80434 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3828, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 765.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "D'Astous", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480426, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 538, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 107.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 38, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.6, "shifts": 86, "shiftsPerGame": 17.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 4404, "timeOnIcePerGame": 880.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.2093 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4109, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 821.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Holmberg", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480995, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 397, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 2, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.4, "shifts": 104, "shiftsPerGame": 20.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Pontus Holmberg", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 4508, "timeOnIcePerGame": 901.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.34615 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3852, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 770.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Mikheyev", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481624, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 454, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 90.8, "shifts": 97, "shiftsPerGame": 19.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ilya Mikheyev", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 4320, "timeOnIcePerGame": 864.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.53608 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3144, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1048.0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Crozier", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481719, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 32, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 10.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 64, "shiftsPerGame": 21.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Max Crozier", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 3176, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1058.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4256, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 851.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Goncalves", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482201, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 424, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 33, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.6, "shifts": 97, "shiftsPerGame": 19.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Gage Goncalves", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 4713, "timeOnIcePerGame": 942.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.58762 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4479, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 895.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Moser", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482655, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 409, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 81.8, "shifts": 99, "shiftsPerGame": 19.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "J.J. Moser", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 4902, "timeOnIcePerGame": 980.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.51515 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 591, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 591.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Lilleberg", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482929, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 39, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 39.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Emil Lilleberg", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 630, "timeOnIcePerGame": 630.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2872, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 574.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Geekie", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483447, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 455, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 91.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 72, "shiftsPerGame": 14.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Conor Geekie", "teamAbbrevs": "TBL", "timeOnIce": 3327, "timeOnIcePerGame": 665.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.20833 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892493", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "Primary": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8476826, "incumbent": "Yanni Gourde", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T19:18Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8476826, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476826/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 11, "avgToi": "15:30", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.507979, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 36, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 36, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 17, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.15, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 40, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kraken" }, "teamName": { "default": "Seattle Kraken", "fr": "Kraken de Seattle" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Seattle", "fr": "de Seattle" } }, { "assists": 13, "avgToi": "17:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.469136, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 21, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.028571, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 35, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "14:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.416667, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } }, { "assists": 19, "avgToi": "16:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.449489, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 66, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 28, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.078947, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 114, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "15:38", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.307692, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476453, "player": "Nikita Kucherov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 323, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477149, "player": "Scott Sabourin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 549, "PP_seconds": 20, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477404, "player": "Jake Guentzel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 336, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480995, "player": "Pontus Holmberg", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 983, "PP_seconds": 74, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481624, "player": "Ilya Mikheyev", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 848, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 68 }, { "player_id": 8478010, "player": "Brayden Point", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 305, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478519, "player": "Anthony Cirelli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 147, "SH_seconds": 153 }, { "player_id": 8483447, "player": "Conor Geekie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 586, "PP_seconds": 102, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479542, "player": "Brandon Hagel", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 884, "PP_seconds": 274, "SH_seconds": 134 }, { "player_id": 8482201, "player": "Gage Goncalves", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 984, "PP_seconds": 109, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476878, "player": "Zemgus Girgensons", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 826, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 87 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8482929, "incumbent": "Emil Lilleberg", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T12:50Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482929, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482929/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 18, "avgToi": "15:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 76, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 105, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.021739, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 46, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OGQ", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Norway" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Norway" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "17:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 50, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 61, "plusMinus": 15, "points": 12, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.093023, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 43, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "16:43", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:30", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 5, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Lightning" }, "teamName": { "default": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "fr": "Lightning de Tampa Bay" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Tampa Bay", "fr": "de Tampa Bay" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480426, "player": "Charle-Edouard D'Astous", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 696, "PP_seconds": 114, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475167, "player": "Victor Hedman", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 569, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8474151, "player": "Ryan McDonagh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 156 }, { "player_id": 8482655, "player": "J.J. Moser", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 949, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 68 }, { "player_id": 8481719, "player": "Max Crozier", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 973, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478416, "player": "Erik Cernak", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 988, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 153 }, { "player_id": 8474590, "player": "John Carlson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 923, "PP_seconds": 320, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020095, "team": "NYR", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 967, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 967.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Zibanejad", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476459, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 200, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 200.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mika Zibanejad", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1167, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1167.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.73913 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 953, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 953.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Dorofeyev", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481604, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 136, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 136.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1089, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1089.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.45 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 568, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 568.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Chmelar", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482877, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 12, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jaroslav Chmelar", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 568, "timeOnIcePerGame": 568.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.33333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 959, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 959.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Lafreni\u00e8re", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482109, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 200, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 200.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alexis Lafreni\u00e8re", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1159, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1159.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.68181 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1052, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1052.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Smits", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485957, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alberts Smits", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1052, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1052.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.6 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 894, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 894.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Kartye", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481789, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 45, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 45.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tye Kartye", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 939, "timeOnIcePerGame": 939.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.71428 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1144, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1144.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Gavrikov", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478882, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "shTimeOnIce": 75, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 75.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Vladislav Gavrikov", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1220, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1220.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.45454 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 682, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 682.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Tolvanen", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480009, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 27, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 27.0, "shTimeOnIce": 18, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 18.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Eeli Tolvanen", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 727, "timeOnIcePerGame": 727.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.38888 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 715, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 715.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Laba", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483690, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 75, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 75.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Noah Laba", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 790, "timeOnIcePerGame": 790.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.61904 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1241, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1241.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Pettersson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477969, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 57, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 57.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Marcus Pettersson", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1298, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1298.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 59.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 592, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 592.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Bjorkstrand", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477416, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 26, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 26.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 13, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Oliver Bjorkstrand", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 618, "timeOnIcePerGame": 618.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.53846 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 957, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 957.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Schneider", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482073, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 50, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 50.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Braden Schneider", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1007, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1007.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.77272 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 891, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 891.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Miller", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476468, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 198, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 198.0, "shTimeOnIce": 20, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 20.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "J.T. Miller", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1109, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1109.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.20833 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1060, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1060.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Fox", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479323, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 200, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 200.0, "shTimeOnIce": 13, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 13.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Adam Fox", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1273, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1273.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.04166 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1076, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1076.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Durzi", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480434, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 27, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 27.0, "shTimeOnIce": 45, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 45.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sean Durzi", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1148, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1148.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.18181 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 644, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 644.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Beaudoin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484786, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 12, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Beaudoin", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 644, "timeOnIcePerGame": 644.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.66666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 828, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 828.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Cuylle", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482157, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 29, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 29.0, "shTimeOnIce": 82, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Will Cuylle", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 939, "timeOnIcePerGame": 939.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.42105 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1042, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1042.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-11", "gameId": 2026020085, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Perreault", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VAN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484210, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 91, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 91.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Gabe Perreault", "teamAbbrev": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1133, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1133.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.5 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8476459, "player": "Mika Zibanejad", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 967, "PP_seconds": 200, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481604, "player": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 136, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482877, "player": "Jaroslav Chmelar", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 568, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482109, "player": "Alexis Lafreni\u00e8re", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 200, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8485957, "player": "Alberts Smits", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1052, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481789, "player": "Tye Kartye", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 894, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8478882, "player": "Vladislav Gavrikov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1144, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8480009, "player": "Eeli Tolvanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 682, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 18 }, { "player_id": 8483690, "player": "Noah Laba", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 715, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8477969, "player": "Marcus Pettersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1241, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 57 }, { "player_id": 8477416, "player": "Oliver Bjorkstrand", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 592, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482073, "player": "Braden Schneider", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 957, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 50 }, { "player_id": 8476468, "player": "J.T. Miller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 198, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8479323, "player": "Adam Fox", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1060, "PP_seconds": 200, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8480434, "player": "Sean Durzi", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1076, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8484786, "player": "Cole Beaudoin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 644, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482157, "player": "Will Cuylle", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 29, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8484210, "player": "Gabe Perreault", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1042, "PP_seconds": 91, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 16265, "PP_seconds": 1135, "SH_seconds": 480 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8476468, "name": { "default": "J. Miller" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:29", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8482109, "name": { "default": "A. Lafreni\u00e8re" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "19:19", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8481604, "name": { "default": "P. Dorofeyev", "cs": "P. Dorofejev", "fi": "P. Dorofejev", "sk": "P. Dorofejev" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:09", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8480009, "name": { "default": "E. Tolvanen" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:07", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8481789, "name": { "default": "T. 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Cuylle" }, "position": "L", "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "points": 2, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:39", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8484786, "name": { "default": "C. Beaudoin" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:44", "shifts": 12 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8476459, "name": { "default": "M. 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Pettersson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:38", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8478882, "name": { "default": "V. Gavrikov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:20", "shifts": 22 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "Primary": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. 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"position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8482073, "player": "Braden Schneider", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8485957, "player": "Alberts Smits", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8482193, "player": "Dylan Garand", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8476914, "player": "Joonas Korpisalo", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" }, { "team": "NYR", "player_id": 8478048, "player": "Igor Shesterkin", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYR/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "New York Rangers", "abbreviation": "NYR", "player": "Joe Veleno", "player_id": "4352804", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T17:18Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/13/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.473336+00:00" }, { "team": "New York Rangers", "abbreviation": "NYR", "player": "Adam Sykora", "player_id": "5080232", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T01:35Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/13/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.473336+00:00" }, { "team": "New York Rangers", "abbreviation": "NYR", "player": "Joonas Korpisalo", "player_id": "3069266", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T17:11Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/13/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.473336+00:00" }, { "team": "New York Rangers", "abbreviation": "NYR", "player": "Igor 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"otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 53.11111, "playerId": 8482073, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1810, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 22.07317, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 11909, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 145.2317, "shifts": 2058, "shiftsPerGame": 25.09756, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Braden Schneider", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 100576, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1226.53658, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.87074 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 74585, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 909.57317, "gamesPlayed": 82, "lastName": "Lafreni\u00e8re", "otTimeOnIce": 781, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 43.38888, "playerId": 8482109, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 11909, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 145.2317, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 90, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.09756, "shifts": 1783, "shiftsPerGame": 21.7439, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alexis Lafreni\u00e8re", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 86584, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1055.90243, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.56085 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 68026, 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43.31612 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 24735, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 852.93103, "gamesPlayed": 29, "lastName": "Morrow", "otTimeOnIce": 61, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 7.625, "playerId": 8482666, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 2494, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 86.0, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 35, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.20689, "shifts": 577, "shiftsPerGame": 19.89655, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Scott Morrow", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 27264, "timeOnIcePerGame": 940.13793, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.25129 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 23379, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 865.88888, "gamesPlayed": 27, "lastName": "Iorio", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482861, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 84, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.11111, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 2031, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 75.22222, "shifts": 515, "shiftsPerGame": 19.07407, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Vincent Iorio", "teamAbbrevs": "SJS,NYR", "timeOnIce": 25494, "timeOnIcePerGame": 944.22222, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.50291 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 15250, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 544.64285, "gamesPlayed": 28, "lastName": "Chmelar", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482877, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 121, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.32142, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 3, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.10714, "shifts": 354, "shiftsPerGame": 12.64285, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jaroslav Chmelar", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 15374, "timeOnIcePerGame": 549.07142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.42937 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7273, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 661.18181, "gamesPlayed": 11, "lastName": "Sykora", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483669, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 72, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.54545, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 30, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.72727, "shifts": 166, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0909, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Sykora", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 7375, "timeOnIcePerGame": 670.45454, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.42771 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 52129, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 704.44594, "gamesPlayed": 74, "lastName": "Laba", "otTimeOnIce": 176, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 11.0, "playerId": 8483690, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 2438, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 32.94594, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 5244, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 70.86486, "shifts": 1405, "shiftsPerGame": 18.98648, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Noah Laba", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 59811, "timeOnIcePerGame": 808.25675, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.5701 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 43133, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 880.2653, "gamesPlayed": 49, "lastName": "Perreault", "otTimeOnIce": 197, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 19.7, "playerId": 8484210, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 3867, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 78.91836, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 990, "shiftsPerGame": 20.20408, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Gabe Perreault", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 47000, "timeOnIcePerGame": 959.18367, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.47474 } ], "20262027": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 6631, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 947.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Zibanejad", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476459, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1374, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 196.28571, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 506, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 72.28571, "shifts": 171, "shiftsPerGame": 24.42857, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mika Zibanejad", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 8511, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1215.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.77192 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6051, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 864.42857, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Miller", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476468, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1161, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 165.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 321, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 45.85714, "shifts": 166, "shiftsPerGame": 23.71428, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "J.T. Miller", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 7533, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1076.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.37951 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4215, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 602.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Bjorkstrand", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477416, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 388, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 55.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 109, "shiftsPerGame": 15.57142, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Oliver Bjorkstrand", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 4603, "timeOnIcePerGame": 657.57142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.22935 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7512, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1073.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Pettersson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477969, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 50, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1014, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 144.85714, "shifts": 165, "shiftsPerGame": 23.57142, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Marcus Pettersson", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 8576, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1225.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.97575 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7767, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1109.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Gavrikov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478882, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 17, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1129, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 161.28571, "shifts": 176, "shiftsPerGame": 25.14285, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Vladislav Gavrikov", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 8913, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1273.28571, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.64204 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7379, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1054.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Fox", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479323, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1373, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 196.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 255, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 36.42857, "shifts": 176, "shiftsPerGame": 25.14285, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Adam Fox", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 9007, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1286.71428, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.17613 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4554, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 650.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Tolvanen", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480009, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 454, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 64.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 500, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 71.42857, "shifts": 144, "shiftsPerGame": 20.57142, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Eeli Tolvanen", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 5508, "timeOnIcePerGame": 786.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.25 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7082, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1011.71428, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Durzi", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480434, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 482, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 68.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 955, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 136.42857, "shifts": 168, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sean Durzi", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 8519, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1217.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.70833 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2147, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 536.75, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Veleno", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480813, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 642, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 160.5, "shifts": 66, "shiftsPerGame": 16.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Joseph Veleno", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 2789, "timeOnIcePerGame": 697.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.25757 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5842, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 834.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Dorofeyev", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481604, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1305, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 186.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 143, "shiftsPerGame": 20.42857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 7147, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1021.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.97902 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5420, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 774.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Kartye", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481789, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 8, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 865, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 123.57142, "shifts": 148, "shiftsPerGame": 21.14285, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tye Kartye", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 6293, "timeOnIcePerGame": 899.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.52027 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6242, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 891.71428, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Schneider", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482073, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 40, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.71428, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1001, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 143.0, "shifts": 156, "shiftsPerGame": 22.28571, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Braden Schneider", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 7283, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1040.42857, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.68589 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6661, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 951.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Lafreni\u00e8re", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482109, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1364, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 194.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 154, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alexis Lafreni\u00e8re", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 8025, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1146.42857, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.11038 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5221, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 745.85714, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Cuylle", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482157, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 546, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 78.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 718, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 102.57142, "shifts": 152, "shiftsPerGame": 21.71428, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Will Cuylle", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 6485, "timeOnIcePerGame": 926.42857, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.66447 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 589, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 589.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Rempe", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482460, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 12, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Matt Rempe", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 589, "timeOnIcePerGame": 589.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.08333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2907, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 484.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Chmelar", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482877, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 41, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 72, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jaroslav Chmelar", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 2948, "timeOnIcePerGame": 491.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.94444 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5258, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 751.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Laba", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483690, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 49, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 724, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 103.42857, "shifts": 153, "shiftsPerGame": 21.85714, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Noah Laba", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 6031, "timeOnIcePerGame": 861.57142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.4183 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6069, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 867.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Perreault", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484210, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 525, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 75.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 146, "shiftsPerGame": 20.85714, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Gabe Perreault", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 6594, "timeOnIcePerGame": 942.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.16438 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1813, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 604.33333, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Beaudoin", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484786, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 71, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 23.66666, "shifts": 44, "shiftsPerGame": 14.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Beaudoin", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 1897, "timeOnIcePerGame": 632.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.11363 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6339, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 905.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Smits", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485957, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 25, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 135, "shiftsPerGame": 19.28571, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alberts Smits", "teamAbbrevs": "NYR", "timeOnIce": 6364, "timeOnIcePerGame": 909.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.14074 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892493", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.004552845528455, 2.9677326106594397 ], "Primary": [ 3.0895152010923312, 2.911526852193559 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.26219, 2.829265 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Joe Veleno", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T17:18Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8483669, "incumbent": "Adam Sykora", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T01:35Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8483669, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483669/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 21, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 71, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -23, "points": 30, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Hartford Wolf Pack" } }, { "assists": 2, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OGQ", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Slovakia" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 13, "teamName": { "default": "Slovakia" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:10", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 5, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 15, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Rangers" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Rangers", "fr": "Rangers de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 17, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 62, "goals": 12, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 28, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 29, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Hartford Wolf Pack" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476459, "player": "Mika Zibanejad", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 967, "PP_seconds": 200, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481604, "player": "Pavel Dorofeyev", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 953, "PP_seconds": 136, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482877, "player": "Jaroslav Chmelar", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 568, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482109, "player": "Alexis Lafreni\u00e8re", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 959, "PP_seconds": 200, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481789, "player": "Tye Kartye", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 894, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8480009, "player": "Eeli Tolvanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 682, "PP_seconds": 27, "SH_seconds": 18 }, { "player_id": 8483690, "player": "Noah Laba", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 715, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8477416, "player": "Oliver Bjorkstrand", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 592, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476468, "player": "J.T. Miller", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 198, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8484786, "player": "Cole Beaudoin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 644, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482157, "player": "Will Cuylle", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 29, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8484210, "player": "Gabe Perreault", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1042, "PP_seconds": 91, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers", "market": { "id": "401892493", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892493", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.352164+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.566070+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -185.0, "away_line_price": 154.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -135.0, "under_price": 114.0, "home_ml": 136.0, "away_ml": -162.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.03682023486901542, "combined": 5.972285456187895, "spread_buffer": 1.4631797651309846, "total_difference": 0.47228545618789486 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.03682023486901542, "combined": 5.972285456187895, "spread_buffer": 1.4631797651309846, "total_difference": 0.47228545618789486 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.17798834889877213, "combined": 6.00104205328589, "spread_buffer": 1.3220116511012279, "total_difference": 0.5010420532858904 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.17798834889877213, "combined": 6.00104205328589, "spread_buffer": 1.3220116511012279, "total_difference": 0.5010420532858904 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.432925, "combined": 6.091455, "spread_buffer": 1.067075, "total_difference": 0.5914549999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.432925, "combined": 6.091455, "spread_buffer": 1.067075, "total_difference": 0.5914549999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.432925, "combined": 6.091455, "spread_buffer": 1.067075, "total_difference": 0.5914549999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.432925, "combined": 6.091455, "spread_buffer": 1.067075, "total_difference": 0.5914549999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892494", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892494", "date": "2026-10-13T23:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "19", "away_name": "St. Louis Blues", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6914446529080673, 3.347861163227017 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6914446529080673, 3.347861163227017 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6914446529080673, 3.347861163227017 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.817073170731707, 3.1463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 2.8, 3.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.3902439024390243, 3.0 ], "current_rates": [ 3.1666666666666665, 2.0 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8963350000000001, 4.8963350000000005 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8963350000000001, 4.8963350000000005 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19, "official_team_name": "St. Louis Blues" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8963350000000001, 4.8963350000000005 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.80487, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 19, "official_team_name": "St. Louis Blues" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.35365, "pa": 2.9878, "official_team_id": 9, "official_team_name": "Ottawa Senators" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8963350000000001, 4.8963350000000005 ], "home": [ 1.2256049999999998, 5.225605 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "STL: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. OTT: Sanderson/Zub/Crotty out; Matinpalo new October12 issue after short appearance requires conditional depth transfer. Chabot/Spence/Kleven/Yakemchuk/Stanley previous usage preserved. Recent-reference new availability branches: Nikolas Matinpalo.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Canadian Tire Centre; listed 2026-10-13T23:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892494", "sport": "NHL", "away": "St. Louis Blues", "home": "Ottawa Senators", "start_et": "2026-10-13T19:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T23:30Z", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 7:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 7:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "St. Louis Blues", "previous_game": { "id": "401892477", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1839", "fullName": "Enterprise Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Louis", "state": "MO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "29", "away_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "19", "home_name": "St. Louis Blues", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Ottawa Senators", "previous_game": { "id": "401892486", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1826", "fullName": "Prudential Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Newark", "state": "NJ", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "14", "away_name": "Ottawa Senators", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "New Jersey Devils", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20738.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020096, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 13, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ross Johnston", "teamAbbrev": "STL", "timeOnIce": 546, "timeOnIcePerGame": 546.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 957, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 957.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020079, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "McMichael", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CBJ", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481580, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 79, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.0, "shTimeOnIce": 51, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 51.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Connor McMichael", "teamAbbrev": "STL", "timeOnIce": 1087, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1087.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.48 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8484790, "player": "Adam Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480459, "player": "Pius Suter", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8477402, "player": "Pavel Buchnevich", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 861, "PP_seconds": 79, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8482784, "player": "Zach Dean", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 591, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481598, "player": "Philip Broberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1319, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 80 }, { "player_id": 8482077, "player": "Dylan Holloway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 944, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8481013, "player": "Jonatan Berggren", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 991, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 31 }, { "player_id": 8476892, "player": "Colton Parayko", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1301, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 83 }, { "player_id": 8482089, "player": "Jake Neighbours", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 765, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475764, "player": "Cam 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McMichael", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 957, "PP_seconds": 79, "SH_seconds": 51 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 16684, "PP_seconds": 600, "SH_seconds": 480 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "STL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8484164, "name": { "default": "D. 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McTavish" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:08", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "STL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8477402, "name": { "default": "P. Buchnevich", "cs": "P. Bu\u010dn\u011bvi\u010d", "fi": "P. Butshnevitsh", "sk": "P. Bu\u010dn\u011bvi\u010d" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:02", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "STL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8481598, "name": { "default": "P. Broberg" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:19", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "STL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8475764, "name": { "default": "C. Fowler" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:46", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "STL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8478443, "name": { "default": "B. Carlo" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:05", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "STL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8484790, "name": { "default": "A. Jiricek" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:50", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "STL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8476892, "name": { "default": "C. Parayko" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:04", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020079, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "STL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "playerId": 8482111, "name": { "default": "J. Barron" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:14", "shifts": 23 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.6914446529080673, 3.347861163227017 ], "Primary": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020079/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8481013, "player": "Jonatan Berggren", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8477402, "player": "Pavel Buchnevich", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482784, "player": "Zach Dean", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8479346, "player": "Dillon Dube", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8484164, "player": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482077, "player": "Dylan Holloway", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8477527, "player": "Ross Johnston", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8481580, "player": "Connor McMichael", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482745, "player": "Mason McTavish", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482089, "player": "Jake Neighbours", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482121, "player": "Dylan Peterson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", 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"player_id": 8478443, "player": "Brandon Carlo", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8475764, "player": "Cam Fowler", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8484790, "player": "Adam Jiricek", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8484188, "player": "Theo Lindstein", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8482733, "player": "Logan Mailloux", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8476892, "player": "Colton Parayko", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8481006, "player": "Tyler Tucker", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8476412, "player": "Jordan Binnington", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" }, { "team": "STL", "player_id": 8480981, "player": "Joel Hofer", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/STL/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "St. Louis Blues", "abbreviation": "STL", "player": "Dillon Dube", "player_id": "4063268", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T21:13Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/19/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.639410+00:00" }, { "team": "St. Louis Blues", "abbreviation": "STL", "player": "Brandon Carlo", "player_id": "3904175", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-06-27T16:05Z" } ], "source": 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"skaterFullName": "Justin Barron", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 44461, "timeOnIcePerGame": 855.01923, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.50767 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 62089, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 926.70149, "gamesPlayed": 67, "lastName": "Mailloux", "otTimeOnIce": 298, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 27.0909, "playerId": 8482733, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 2585, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 38.58208, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 2739, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 40.88059, "shifts": 1413, "shiftsPerGame": 21.08955, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Logan Mailloux", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 67413, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1006.16417, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.70912 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 59348, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 791.30666, "gamesPlayed": 75, "lastName": "McTavish", "otTimeOnIce": 495, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 24.75, "playerId": 8482745, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 9163, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 122.17333, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 428, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.70666, "shifts": 1431, "shiftsPerGame": 19.08, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mason McTavish", "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 68939, "timeOnIcePerGame": 919.18666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.1754 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 60610, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 865.85714, "gamesPlayed": 70, "lastName": "Snuggerud", "otTimeOnIce": 770, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 51.33333, "playerId": 8483516, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 9497, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 135.67142, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 15, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.21428, "shifts": 1466, "shiftsPerGame": 20.94285, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 70122, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1001.74285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.83219 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 52696, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 742.19718, "gamesPlayed": 71, "lastName": "Dvorsky", "otTimeOnIce": 460, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 32.85714, "playerId": 8484164, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 8347, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 117.56338, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 41, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.57746, "shifts": 1333, "shiftsPerGame": 18.77464, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 61084, "timeOnIcePerGame": 860.33802, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.82445 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 15579, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 916.41176, "gamesPlayed": 17, "lastName": "Lindstein", "otTimeOnIce": 37, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 7.4, "playerId": 8484188, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 95, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.58823, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 402, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 23.64705, "shifts": 364, "shiftsPerGame": 21.41176, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Theo Lindstein", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 16076, "timeOnIcePerGame": 945.64705, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.16483 } ], "20262027": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 5399, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1079.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Fowler", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8475764, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 651, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 130.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 766, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 153.2, "shifts": 133, "shiftsPerGame": 26.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cam Fowler", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 6816, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1363.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.24812 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5471, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1094.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Parayko", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476892, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 23, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 976, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 195.2, "shifts": 133, "shiftsPerGame": 26.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Colton Parayko", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 6470, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1294.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.64661 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3901, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 780.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Buchnevich", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8477402, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 503, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 100.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 830, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 166.0, "shifts": 114, "shiftsPerGame": 22.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Pavel Buchnevich", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 5234, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1046.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.91228 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2052, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 513.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Johnston", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8477527, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 10, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 50, "shiftsPerGame": 12.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ross Johnston", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 2062, "timeOnIcePerGame": 515.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.24 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4545, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 909.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Carlo", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8478443, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 719, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 143.8, "shifts": 118, "shiftsPerGame": 23.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Brandon Carlo", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 5264, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1052.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.61016 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1692, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 564.0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Dube", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479346, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 5, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 378, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 126.0, "shifts": 51, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dillon Dube", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 2075, "timeOnIcePerGame": 691.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.68627 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4508, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 901.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Thomas", "otTimeOnIce": 63, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 63.0, "playerId": 8480023, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 740, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 148.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 684, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 136.8, "shifts": 125, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Robert Thomas", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 5932, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1186.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.456 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 287, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 287.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Toropchenko", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480281, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 21, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 21.0, "shifts": 8, "shiftsPerGame": 8.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alexey Toropchenko", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 308, "timeOnIcePerGame": 308.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3218, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 643.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Suter", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480459, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 6, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 862, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 172.4, "shifts": 94, "shiftsPerGame": 18.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Pius Suter", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 4086, "timeOnIcePerGame": 817.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.46808 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4273, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 854.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Berggren", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481013, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 84, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 16.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 63, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 12.6, "shifts": 99, "shiftsPerGame": 19.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jonatan Berggren", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 4420, "timeOnIcePerGame": 884.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.64646 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3719, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 743.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "McMichael", "otTimeOnIce": 7, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 7.0, "playerId": 8481580, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 570, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 114.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 541, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 108.2, "shifts": 121, "shiftsPerGame": 24.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Connor McMichael", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 4830, "timeOnIcePerGame": 966.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.91735 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5680, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1136.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Broberg", "otTimeOnIce": 63, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 63.0, "playerId": 8481598, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 100, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 20.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1033, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 206.6, "shifts": 130, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Philip Broberg", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 6813, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1362.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.40769 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4247, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 849.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Holloway", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482077, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 752, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 150.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 101, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 20.2, "shifts": 113, "shiftsPerGame": 22.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Holloway", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 5100, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1020.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.13274 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3545, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 709.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Neighbours", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482089, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 500, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 100.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 174, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 34.8, "shifts": 94, "shiftsPerGame": 18.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jake Neighbours", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 4219, "timeOnIcePerGame": 843.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.88297 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1705, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 852.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Barron", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482111, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 2, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 113, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 56.5, "shifts": 40, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Justin Barron", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 1820, "timeOnIcePerGame": 910.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4071, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 814.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "McTavish", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482745, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 699, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 139.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 106, "shiftsPerGame": 21.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mason McTavish", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 4770, "timeOnIcePerGame": 954.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1343, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 671.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Dean", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482784, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 5, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 36, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zach Dean", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 1348, "timeOnIcePerGame": 674.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.44444 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4362, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 872.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Snuggerud", "otTimeOnIce": 56, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 56.0, "playerId": 8483516, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 747, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 149.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 4, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.8, "shifts": 110, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 5113, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1022.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.48181 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3304, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 660.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Dvorsky", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484164, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 480, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 96.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 89, "shiftsPerGame": 17.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 3784, "timeOnIcePerGame": 756.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.51685 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2597, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 865.66666, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Lindstein", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484188, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 4, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 67, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 22.33333, "shifts": 64, "shiftsPerGame": 21.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Theo Lindstein", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 2668, "timeOnIcePerGame": 889.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.6875 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4503, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 900.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Jiricek", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484790, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 575, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 115.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 107, "shiftsPerGame": 21.4, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Adam Jiricek", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 5078, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1015.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.45794 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892494", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.6914446529080673, 3.347861163227017 ], "Primary": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8479346, "incumbent": "Dillon Dube", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T21:13Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8479346, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479346/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 7, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 42, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "KHL", "pim": 25, "plusMinus": -12, "points": 11, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Dinamo Minsk" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "KHL", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Dinamo Minsk" } }, { "assists": 17, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 46, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 10, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 37, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Springfield Thunderbirds" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 12, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 8, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Springfield Thunderbirds" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "11:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 1.0, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480459, "player": "Pius Suter", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 66 }, { "player_id": 8477402, "player": "Pavel Buchnevich", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 861, "PP_seconds": 79, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8482784, "player": "Zach Dean", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 591, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482077, "player": "Dylan Holloway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 944, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8481013, "player": "Jonatan Berggren", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 991, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 31 }, { "player_id": 8482089, "player": "Jake Neighbours", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 765, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482745, "player": "Mason McTavish", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1009, "PP_seconds": 79, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483516, "player": "Jimmy Snuggerud", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 874, "PP_seconds": 39, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480023, "player": "Robert Thomas", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1054, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484164, "player": "Dalibor Dvorsky", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 647, "PP_seconds": 79, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477527, "player": "Ross Johnston", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 546, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481580, "player": "Connor McMichael", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 957, "PP_seconds": 79, "SH_seconds": 51 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8478443, "incumbent": "Brandon Carlo", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-06-27T16:05Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": 8478443, "player": "Brandon Carlo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1045, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 40 }, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478443, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478443/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "18:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 63, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.015625, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 64, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Bruins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Boston Bruins", "fr": "Bruins de Boston" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Boston", "fr": "de Boston" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "19:13", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 20, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 13, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "19:05", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 14, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "19:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 55, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 37, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 66, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "17:33", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 17, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484790, "player": "Adam Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481598, "player": "Philip Broberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1319, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 80 }, { "player_id": 8476892, "player": "Colton Parayko", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1301, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 83 }, { "player_id": 8475764, "player": "Cam Fowler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1189, "PP_seconds": 79, "SH_seconds": 38 }, { "player_id": 8482111, "player": "Justin Barron", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 972, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8482733, "incumbent": "Logan Mailloux", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T15:40Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482733, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482733/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "16:12", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 21, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 63, "goals": 12, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 74, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 33, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 4, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 28, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 6, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "16:46", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 67, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 48, "plusMinus": -10, "points": 13, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.061728, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 81, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Springfield Thunderbirds" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484790, "player": "Adam Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481598, "player": "Philip Broberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1319, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 80 }, { "player_id": 8476892, "player": "Colton Parayko", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1301, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 83 }, { "player_id": 8475764, "player": "Cam Fowler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1189, "PP_seconds": 79, "SH_seconds": 38 }, { "player_id": 8482111, "player": "Justin Barron", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 972, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478443, "player": "Brandon Carlo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1045, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 40 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8481006, "incumbent": "Tyler Tucker", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-30T19:39Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8481006, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481006/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "14:35", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 38, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 55, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.090909, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 33, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } }, { "assists": 6, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 19, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 39, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 10, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Springfield Thunderbirds" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "14:24", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.25, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } }, { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "14:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 69, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 81, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 17, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.044118, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 68, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blues" }, "teamName": { "default": "St. Louis Blues", "fr": "Blues de St. Louis" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "St. Louis", "fr": "de St. Louis" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484790, "player": "Adam Jiricek", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 41, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481598, "player": "Philip Broberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1319, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 80 }, { "player_id": 8476892, "player": "Colton Parayko", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1301, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 83 }, { "player_id": 8475764, "player": "Cam Fowler", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1189, "PP_seconds": 79, "SH_seconds": 38 }, { "player_id": 8482111, "player": "Justin Barron", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 972, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478443, "player": "Brandon Carlo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1045, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 40 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020096, "team": "OTT", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 724, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 724.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Foegele", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477998, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 2, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Warren Foegele", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 726, "timeOnIcePerGame": 726.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.70588 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 657, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 657.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Stanley", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484409, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 92, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 92.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Hoyt Stanley", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 749, "timeOnIcePerGame": 749.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.42105 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 894, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 894.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Greig", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482092, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 28, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 28.0, "shTimeOnIce": 60, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 60.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ridly Greig", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 982, "timeOnIcePerGame": 982.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.7619 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 307, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 307.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Halliday", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483676, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 199, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 199.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 14, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Stephen Halliday", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 506, "timeOnIcePerGame": 506.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.14285 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 527, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 527.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Burakovsky", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477444, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 376, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 376.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Andre Burakovsky", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 903, "timeOnIcePerGame": 903.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.4375 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1230, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1230.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Spence", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481606, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 61, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 61.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jordan Spence", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1291, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1291.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.64 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 666, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 666.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Cozens", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481528, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 394, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 394.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Cozens", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1060, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1060.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.47619 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 738, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 738.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "St\u00fctzle", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482116, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 394, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 394.0, "shTimeOnIce": 114, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 114.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1246, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1246.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.92307 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 828, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 828.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Giroux", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8473512, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 233, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 233.0, "shTimeOnIce": 65, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 65.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Claude Giroux", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1126, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1126.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.91666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1343, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1343.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Kleven", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482095, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 4, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.0, "shTimeOnIce": 70, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 70.0, "shifts": 30, "shiftsPerGame": 30.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tyler Kleven", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1417, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1417.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.23333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 456, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 456.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Zetterlund", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480188, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 230, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 230.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Fabian Zetterlund", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 686, "timeOnIcePerGame": 686.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.875 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1098, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1098.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Yakemchuk", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484759, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 247, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 247.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 28, "shiftsPerGame": 28.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Carter Yakemchuk", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1345, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1345.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.03571 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 540, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 540.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Cousins", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476393, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nick Cousins", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 540, "timeOnIcePerGame": 540.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 999, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 999.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Pinto", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481596, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 220, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 220.0, "shTimeOnIce": 61, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 61.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Shane Pinto", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1280, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1280.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.2 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1171, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1171.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Chabot", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478469, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 378, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 378.0, "shTimeOnIce": 124, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 124.0, "shifts": 31, "shiftsPerGame": 31.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Thomas Chabot", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1673, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1673.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.96774 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 668, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 668.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Batherson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480208, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 385, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 385.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Drake Batherson", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1053, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1053.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.86363 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 139, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 139.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Matinpalo", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484321, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 4, "shiftsPerGame": 4.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 139, "timeOnIcePerGame": 139.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 34.75 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 989, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 989.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020088, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Amadio", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "NJD", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478020, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 49, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 49.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Michael Amadio", "teamAbbrev": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1038, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1038.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.13043 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 657, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 894, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 60 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 307, "PP_seconds": 199, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 376, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1230, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 666, "PP_seconds": 394, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 738, "PP_seconds": 394, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 233, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1343, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 456, "PP_seconds": 230, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1098, "PP_seconds": 247, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 540, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 999, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1171, "PP_seconds": 378, "SH_seconds": 124 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 668, "PP_seconds": 385, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484321, "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 139, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 989, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 49 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13974, "PP_seconds": 3090, "SH_seconds": 696 }, "conditional_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional absence and redistribution", "status_source": { "team": "Ottawa Senators", "abbreviation": "OTT", "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "player_id": "5174232", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-13T00:19Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/14/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.482786+00:00" }, "incumbent": { "player_id": 8484321, "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 139, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, "replacement_ids": [ 8484409, 8481606, 8482095, 8484759, 8478469 ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 673.607201309329, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 92.0 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 894, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 60 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 307, "PP_seconds": 199, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 376, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1261.0911074740861, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 61.0 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 666, "PP_seconds": 394, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 738, "PP_seconds": 394, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 233, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1376.947444989998, "PP_seconds": 4.0, "SH_seconds": 70.0 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 456, "PP_seconds": 230, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1125.7545008183306, "PP_seconds": 247.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 540, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 999, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1200.599745408256, "PP_seconds": 378.0, "SH_seconds": 124.0 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 668, "PP_seconds": 385, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 989, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 49 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13974.0, "PP_seconds": 3090.0, "SH_seconds": 696.0 }, "calculation": "Reallocate missing observed EV/PP/SH seconds among demonstrated same-position-group reference skaters in proportion to each strength exposure. Explicit shortened-bench sensitivity; final dressing replacement and PP-unit labels not invented.", "unassigned_dressing_slot": "Current reserve choice unconfirmed; no independent scoring contribution assumed." } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8481596, "name": { "default": "S. Pinto" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:20", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8482116, "name": { "default": "T. St\u00fctzle" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:46", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8480208, "name": { "default": "D. Batherson" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:33", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8480188, "name": { "default": "F. Zetterlund" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:26", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8476393, "name": { "default": "N. Cousins" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:00", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8478020, "name": { "default": "M. Amadio" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:18", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8481528, "name": { "default": "D. Cozens" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:40", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8473512, "name": { "default": "C. Giroux" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:46", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8483676, "name": { "default": "S. Halliday" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "08:26", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8477998, "name": { "default": "W. Foegele" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:06", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8482092, "name": { "default": "R. Greig" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:22", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8477444, "name": { "default": "A. Burakovsky" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:03", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8481606, "name": { "default": "J. Spence" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:31", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8484759, "name": { "default": "C. Yakemchuk" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:25", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8484321, "name": { "default": "N. Matinpalo" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "02:19", "shifts": 4 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8482095, "name": { "default": "T. Kleven" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:37", "shifts": 30 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8478469, "name": { "default": "T. Chabot" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "27:53", "shifts": 31 }, { "event_id": 2026020088, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "OTT", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "playerId": 8484409, "name": { "default": "H. Stanley" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:29", "shifts": 19 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.6914446529080673, 3.347861163227017 ], "Primary": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020088/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Sanderson/Zub/Crotty out; Matinpalo new October12 issue after short appearance requires conditional depth transfer. Chabot/Spence/Kleven/Yakemchuk/Stanley previous usage preserved. Recent-reference new availability branches: Nikolas Matinpalo.", "reference_date": "2026-10-12", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482667, "player": "William Eklund", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8478173, "player": "Hayden Hodgson", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8480075, "player": "Cameron Crotty", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/OTT/current" }, { "team": "OTT", "player_id": 8484321, 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"shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.5, "shifts": 88, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Carter Yakemchuk", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 3488, "timeOnIcePerGame": 872.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.63636 } ], "20262027": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 4683, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 780.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Giroux", "otTimeOnIce": 82, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 82.0, "playerId": 8473512, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1272, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 212.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 344, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 57.33333, "shifts": 150, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Claude Giroux", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 6299, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1049.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.99333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3191, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 531.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Cousins", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476393, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 11, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 70, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 11.66666, "shifts": 84, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nick Cousins", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 3272, "timeOnIcePerGame": 545.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.95238 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1090, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 545.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Burakovsky", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8477444, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 517, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 258.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 33, "shiftsPerGame": 16.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Andre Burakovsky", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1607, "timeOnIcePerGame": 803.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.69696 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3815, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 635.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Foegele", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8477998, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 216, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 36.0, "shifts": 104, "shiftsPerGame": 17.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Warren Foegele", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 4044, "timeOnIcePerGame": 674.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.88461 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5174, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 862.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Amadio", "otTimeOnIce": 27, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 27.0, "playerId": 8478020, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 10, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 885, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 147.5, "shifts": 146, "shiftsPerGame": 24.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Michael Amadio", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 6069, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1011.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.56849 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 637, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 318.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Hodgson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478173, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 8, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 10.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Hayden Hodgson", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 645, "timeOnIcePerGame": 322.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 30.71428 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7342, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1223.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Chabot", "otTimeOnIce": 131, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 131.0, "playerId": 8478469, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1375, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 229.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1089, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 181.5, "shifts": 186, "shiftsPerGame": 31.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Thomas Chabot", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 9806, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1634.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.72043 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1250, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 625.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Crotty", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480075, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 4, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 53, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 26.5, "shifts": 36, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Cameron Crotty", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1307, "timeOnIcePerGame": 653.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.30555 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3766, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 627.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Zetterlund", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480188, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 851, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 141.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 103, "shiftsPerGame": 17.16666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Fabian Zetterlund", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 4617, "timeOnIcePerGame": 769.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.82524 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4633, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 772.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Batherson", "otTimeOnIce": 149, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 149.0, "playerId": 8480208, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1577, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 262.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 15, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.5, "shifts": 144, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Drake Batherson", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 6225, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1037.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.22916 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5068, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 844.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Cozens", "otTimeOnIce": 168, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 168.0, "playerId": 8481528, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1595, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 265.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 64, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 10.66666, "shifts": 137, "shiftsPerGame": 22.83333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Cozens", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 6727, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1121.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.10218 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5105, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 850.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Pinto", "otTimeOnIce": 108, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 108.0, "playerId": 8481596, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1043, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 173.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1103, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 183.83333, "shifts": 160, "shiftsPerGame": 26.66666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Shane Pinto", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 7251, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1208.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.31875 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7208, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1201.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Spence", "otTimeOnIce": 40, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 40.0, "playerId": 8481606, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 93, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 15.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 892, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 148.66666, "shifts": 167, "shiftsPerGame": 27.83333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jordan Spence", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 8193, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1365.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.05988 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3151, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 787.75, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Greig", "otTimeOnIce": 78, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 78.0, "playerId": 8482092, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 473, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 118.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 491, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 122.75, "shifts": 97, "shiftsPerGame": 24.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ridly Greig", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 4115, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1028.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.42268 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6454, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1075.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Kleven", "otTimeOnIce": 16, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 16.0, "playerId": 8482095, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 26, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1154, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 192.33333, "shifts": 171, "shiftsPerGame": 28.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tyler Kleven", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 7634, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1272.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.64327 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 269, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 269.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Sanderson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482105, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 6, "shiftsPerGame": 6.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jake Sanderson", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 269, "timeOnIcePerGame": 269.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.83333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5002, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 833.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "St\u00fctzle", "otTimeOnIce": 202, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 202.0, "playerId": 8482116, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1666, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 277.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1162, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 193.66666, "shifts": 169, "shiftsPerGame": 28.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 7830, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1305.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.33136 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2735, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 683.75, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Eklund", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482667, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 566, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 141.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 41, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 10.25, "shifts": 70, "shiftsPerGame": 17.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "William Eklund", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 3342, "timeOnIcePerGame": 835.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.74285 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2539, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 423.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Halliday", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483676, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 970, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 161.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 83, "shiftsPerGame": 13.83333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Stephen Halliday", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 3509, "timeOnIcePerGame": 584.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.2771 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4328, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 721.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Matinpalo", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484321, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 4, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1132, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 188.66666, "shifts": 128, "shiftsPerGame": 21.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 5464, "timeOnIcePerGame": 910.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.6875 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1813, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 604.33333, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Stanley", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484409, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 3, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 92, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 30.66666, "shifts": 50, "shiftsPerGame": 16.66666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Hoyt Stanley", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 1908, "timeOnIcePerGame": 636.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.16 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5152, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 858.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Yakemchuk", "otTimeOnIce": 75, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 75.0, "playerId": 8484759, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1253, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 208.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 12, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "shifts": 147, "shiftsPerGame": 24.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Carter Yakemchuk", "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "timeOnIce": 6417, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1069.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.65306 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892494", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.6914446529080673, 3.347861163227017 ], "Primary": [ 2.6990469175387353, 3.2040606308238906 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.896335, 3.225605 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8482667, "incumbent": "William Eklund", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T14:45Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482667, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482667/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 41, "avgToi": "19:33", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.305556, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 17, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 29, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 58, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 16, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.112583, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 3, "shots": 151, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "EHT", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Sweden" } }, { "assists": 38, "avgToi": "18:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.354839, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 78, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 32, "plusMinus": -31, "points": 53, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 16, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.085227, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 176, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "13:56", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.111111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477998, "player": "Warren Foegele", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482092, "player": "Ridly Greig", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 894, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 60 }, { "player_id": 8483676, "player": "Stephen Halliday", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 307, "PP_seconds": 199, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477444, "player": "Andre Burakovsky", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 376, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481528, "player": "Dylan Cozens", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 666, "PP_seconds": 394, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482116, "player": "Tim St\u00fctzle", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 738, "PP_seconds": 394, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8473512, "player": "Claude Giroux", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 828, "PP_seconds": 233, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8480188, "player": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 456, "PP_seconds": 230, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476393, "player": "Nick Cousins", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 540, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481596, "player": "Shane Pinto", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 999, "PP_seconds": 220, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8480208, "player": "Drake Batherson", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 668, "PP_seconds": 385, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478020, "player": "Michael Amadio", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 989, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 49 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Kurtis MacDermid", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:02Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8480075, "incumbent": "Cameron Crotty", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T15:54Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8480075, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480075/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "5:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 10, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 64, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 56, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 10, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Iowa Wild" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "14:55", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 7, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 49, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 29, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 10, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Belleville Senators" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "8:59", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:54", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 657, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1230, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1343, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1098, "PP_seconds": 247, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1171, "PP_seconds": 378, "SH_seconds": 124 }, { "player_id": 8484321, "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 139, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8484321, "incumbent": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-13T00:19Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": 8484321, "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 139, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, "history": [ { "player_id": 8484321, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484321/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "12:37", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 41, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.023256, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 43, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 6, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 24, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 10, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Belleville Senators" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 13, "teamName": { "default": "Finland" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "13:10", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 3, "teamName": { "default": "Finland" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "13:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 5, "avgToi": "15:38", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 50, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 37, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "4:36", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.25, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Finland", "cs": "Finsko", "de": "Finnland", "es": "Finlandia", "fi": "Suomi", "fr": "Finlande", "sk": "F\u00ednsko" }, "teamName": { "default": "Finland", "cs": "Finsko", "de": "Finnland", "es": "Finlandia", "fi": "Suomi", "fr": "Finlande", "sk": "F\u00ednsko" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "20:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "15:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 657, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1230, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1343, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1098, "PP_seconds": 247, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1171, "PP_seconds": 378, "SH_seconds": 124 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8482105, "incumbent": "Jake Sanderson", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-13T02:49Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482105, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482105/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 46, "avgToi": "24:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -14, "points": 57, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 30, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.05641, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 4, "shots": 195, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:26", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 5, "teamName": { "default": "United States" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "26:19", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.111111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 40, "avgToi": "24:50", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 67, "goals": 14, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 16, "points": 54, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 22, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.095238, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 147, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "13:17", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "USA", "es": "Estados Unidos", "fi": "Yhdysvaltojen", "fr": "\u00c9tats-Unis" }, "teamName": { "default": "USA" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "27:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "4:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484409, "player": "Hoyt Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 657, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 92 }, { "player_id": 8481606, "player": "Jordan Spence", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1230, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 61 }, { "player_id": 8482095, "player": "Tyler Kleven", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1343, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 70 }, { "player_id": 8484759, "player": "Carter Yakemchuk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1098, "PP_seconds": 247, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478469, "player": "Thomas Chabot", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1171, "PP_seconds": 378, "SH_seconds": 124 }, { "player_id": 8484321, "player": "Nikolas Matinpalo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 139, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Artem Zub", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-13T02:53Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators", "market": { "id": "401892494", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892494", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.352164+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.525620+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 220.0, "away_line_price": -270.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -122.0, "under_price": 102.0, "home_ml": -120.0, "away_ml": 100.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.6564165103189499, "combined": 6.0393058161350845, "spread_buffer": -0.8435834896810501, "total_difference": 0.5393058161350845 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.6564165103189499, "combined": 6.0393058161350845, "spread_buffer": -0.8435834896810501, "total_difference": 0.5393058161350845 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5050137132851553, "combined": 5.903107548362626, "spread_buffer": -0.9949862867148447, "total_difference": 0.40310754836262586 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5050137132851553, "combined": 5.903107548362626, "spread_buffer": -0.9949862867148447, "total_difference": 0.40310754836262586 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.32926999999999973, "combined": 6.12194, "spread_buffer": -1.1707300000000003, "total_difference": 0.6219400000000004 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.32926999999999973, "combined": 6.12194, "spread_buffer": -1.1707300000000003, "total_difference": 0.6219400000000004 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.32926999999999973, "combined": 6.12194, "spread_buffer": -1.1707300000000003, "total_difference": 0.6219400000000004 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.32926999999999973, "combined": 6.12194, "spread_buffer": -1.1707300000000003, "total_difference": 0.6219400000000004 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892495", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892495", "date": "2026-10-13T23:45Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "12", "home_name": "New York Islanders", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7556639566395664, 3.632014453477868 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7556639566395664, 3.632014453477868 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7556639566395664, 3.632014453477868 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 2.6341463414634148, 3.8536585365853657 ], "current_rates": [ 3.4285714285714284, 5.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.841463414634146, 2.9390243902439024 ], "current_rates": [ 3.2, 2.6 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7195049999999998, 4.719505 ], "home": [ 1.3109700000000002, 5.31097 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7195049999999998, 4.719505 ], "home": [ 1.3109700000000002, 5.31097 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23, "official_team_name": "Vancouver Canucks" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 2, "official_team_name": "New York Islanders" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7195049999999998, 4.719505 ], "home": [ 1.3109700000000002, 5.31097 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.82926, "official_team_id": 23, "official_team_name": "Vancouver Canucks" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 2.87804, "official_team_id": 2, "official_team_name": "New York Islanders" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.7195049999999998, 4.719505 ], "home": [ 1.3109700000000002, 5.31097 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "VAN: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. NYI: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "UBS Arena; listed 2026-10-13T23:45Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892495", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Vancouver Canucks", "home": "New York Islanders", "start_et": "2026-10-13T19:45:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-13T23:45Z", "venue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 7:45 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 7:45 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "previous_game": { "id": "401892483", "date": "2026-10-11T22:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1830", "fullName": "Madison Square Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "New York", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Vancouver Canucks", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "13", "home_name": "New York Rangers", "home_score": 6.0, "day": 20737.916666666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 2, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "New York Islanders", "previous_game": { "id": "401892479", "date": "2026-10-10T23:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "7226", "fullName": "UBS Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Elmont", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "20", "away_name": "Tampa Bay Lightning", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "12", "home_name": "New York Islanders", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20736.979166666668 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020097, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"player": "Tom Willander", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1293, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 29 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 16265, "PP_seconds": 600, "SH_seconds": 908 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "VAN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8478444, "name": { "default": "B. 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DeBrusk" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:25", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "VAN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8483476, "name": { "default": "J. Lekkerim\u00e4ki" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:52", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "VAN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8483499, "name": { "default": "L. Ohgren", "cs": "L. \u00d6hgren", "fi": "L. \u00d6hgren", "sk": "L. \u00d6hgren", "sv": "L. \u00d6hgren" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:23", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "VAN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8481024, "name": { "default": "L. Karlsson" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:55", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "VAN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8474568, "name": { "default": "L. 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Pettersson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:30", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020085, "date": "2026-10-11", "stage": "regular", "team": "VAN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "playerId": 8478465, "name": { "default": "G. Brisebois" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:44", "shifts": 19 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.7556639566395664, 3.632014453477868 ], "Primary": [ 2.7207028107691307, 3.574030202556501 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020085/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-11", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8483395, "player": "Arshdeep Bains", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8478444, "player": "Brock Boeser", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8480078, "player": "Filip Chytil", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8481032, "player": "Paul Cotter", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8478498, "player": "Jake DeBrusk", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8475848, "player": "Brendan Gallagher", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8481024, "player": "Linus Karlsson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8483476, "player": "Jonathan Lekkerim\u00e4ki", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8482055, "player": "Drew O'Connor", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8483499, "player": "Liam Ohgren", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8480012, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8482691, "player": "Aatu R\u00e4ty", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8482079, "player": "Marco Rossi", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8484136, "player": "Max Sasson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8478465, "player": "Guillaume Brisebois", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8484798, "player": "Zeev Buium", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8479425, "player": "Filip Hronek", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8483768, "player": "Victor Mancini", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8476467, "player": "Jamie Oleksiak", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8483678, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8474568, "player": "Luke Schenn", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8484240, "player": "Tom Willander", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8477967, "player": "Thatcher Demko", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8480947, "player": "Kevin Lankinen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" }, { "team": "VAN", "player_id": 8482447, "player": "Leevi Meril\u00e4inen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VAN/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "abbreviation": "VAN", "player": "Filip Chytil", "player_id": "4233643", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-25T21:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/22/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.666568+00:00" }, { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "abbreviation": "VAN", "player": "Akil Thomas", "player_id": "4378682", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:05Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/22/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.666568+00:00" }, { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "abbreviation": "VAN", "player": "Mackenzie MacEachern", "player_id": "3069342", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:03Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/22/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.666568+00:00" }, { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "abbreviation": "VAN", "player": "Jack Thompson", "player_id": "4697776", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:06Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/22/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.666568+00:00" }, { "team": "Vancouver Canucks", "abbreviation": "VAN", "player": "Thatcher Demko", "player_id": "3096217", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T17:58Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/22/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.666568+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8474568, 8475848, 8476467, 8477967, 8478444, 8478465, 8478498, 8479425, 8480012, 8480078, 8480947, 8481024, 8481032, 8482055, 8482079, 8482447, 8482691, 8483395, 8483476, 8483499, 8483678, 8483768, 8484136, 8484240, 8484798 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.01298, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 76, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8474568, "teamAbbrevs": "NSH,WPG", "points": 7, "assists": 6, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 77, "timeOnIcePerGame": 957.1973, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 1, "skaterFullName": "Luke Schenn", "goals": 1, "evPoints": 7, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.14189, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 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"evTimeOnIcePerGame": 879.42857, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Pettersson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483678, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 55, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1116, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 159.42857, "shifts": 159, "shiftsPerGame": 22.71428, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Elias Pettersson", "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "timeOnIce": 7327, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1046.71428, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.08176 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 817, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 817.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Mancini", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483768, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 107, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 107.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Victor Mancini", "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "timeOnIce": 924, "timeOnIcePerGame": 924.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.33333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5053, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 721.85714, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Sasson", "otTimeOnIce": 27, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 27.0, "playerId": 8484136, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 41, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 695, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 99.28571, "shifts": 141, "shiftsPerGame": 20.14285, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Max Sasson", "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "timeOnIce": 5789, "timeOnIcePerGame": 827.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.05673 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7940, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1134.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Willander", "otTimeOnIce": 19, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 19.0, "playerId": 8484240, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 589, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 287, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 41.0, "shifts": 186, "shiftsPerGame": 26.57142, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tom Willander", "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "timeOnIce": 8816, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1259.42857, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.39784 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 8621, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1231.57142, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Buium", "otTimeOnIce": 47, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 47.0, "playerId": 8484798, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 793, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 113.28571, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 9, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.28571, "shifts": 183, "shiftsPerGame": 26.14285, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Zeev Buium", "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "timeOnIce": 9423, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1346.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.4918 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892495", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.7556639566395664, 3.632014453477868 ], "Primary": [ 2.7207028107691307, 3.574030202556501 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8480078, "incumbent": "Filip Chytil", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-25T21:40Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8480078, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480078/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 9, "avgToi": "14:20", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.456576, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 41, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.123596, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 89, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Rangers" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Rangers", "fr": "Rangers de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "16:42", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.496894, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -11, "points": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.045455, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 44, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canucks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vancouver Canucks", "fr": "Canucks de Vancouver" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vancouver", "fr": "de Vancouver" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "15:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.491803, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 12, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.125, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 24, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canucks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vancouver Canucks", "fr": "Canucks de Vancouver" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vancouver", "fr": "de Vancouver" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480012, "player": "Elias Pettersson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 137 }, { "player_id": 8482691, "player": "Aatu R\u00e4ty", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 746, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475848, "player": "Brendan Gallagher", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 761, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8482079, "player": "Marco Rossi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 876, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481024, "player": "Linus Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 662, "PP_seconds": 53, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481032, "player": "Paul Cotter", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 915, "PP_seconds": 54, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478498, "player": "Jake DeBrusk", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 690, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483499, "player": "Liam Ohgren", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 864, "PP_seconds": 59, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484136, "player": "Max Sasson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 715, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 67 }, { "player_id": 8482055, "player": "Drew O'Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 804, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 163 }, { "player_id": 8483476, "player": "Jonathan Lekkerimaki", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 837, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478444, "player": "Brock Boeser", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 991, "PP_seconds": 55, "SH_seconds": 74 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Akil Thomas", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:05Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Mackenzie MacEachern", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:03Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Jack Thompson", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:06Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020097, "team": "NYI", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 967, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 967.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "DeAngelo", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477950, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 26, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 26.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tony DeAngelo", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 993, "timeOnIcePerGame": 993.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.13636 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 546, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 546.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Cizikas", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475231, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 64, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 64.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Casey Cizikas", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 610, "timeOnIcePerGame": 610.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.125 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 686, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 686.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Pageau", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476419, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 195, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 195.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 881, "timeOnIcePerGame": 881.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 35.24 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 676, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 676.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Maccelli", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481711, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 187, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 187.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matias Maccelli", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 863, "timeOnIcePerGame": 863.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.9375 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 721, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 721.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Palmieri", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475151, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 195, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 195.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kyle Palmieri", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 916, "timeOnIcePerGame": 916.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.21052 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 837, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 837.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Schenn", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475170, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 197, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 197.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brayden Schenn", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 1034, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1034.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.44444 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 830, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 830.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Palat", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476292, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 99, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 99.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ondrej Palat", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 929, "timeOnIcePerGame": 929.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.22727 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 711, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 711.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Heineman", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482476, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 110, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 110.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Emil Heineman", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 821, "timeOnIcePerGame": 821.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.05 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 779, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 779.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Eklund", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485388, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 26, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 26.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Victor Eklund", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 805, "timeOnIcePerGame": 805.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.35294 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1012, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1012.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Stanley", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479378, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 166, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 166.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Logan Stanley", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 1178, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1178.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.30769 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 935, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 935.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Pulock", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477506, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 219, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 219.0, "shifts": 31, "shiftsPerGame": 31.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Ryan Pulock", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 1154, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1154.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.2258 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 783, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 783.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Ritchie", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484221, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 34, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 34.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Calum Ritchie", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 817, "timeOnIcePerGame": 817.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.0625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 778, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 778.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Duclair", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477407, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 19, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 19.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Anthony Duclair", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 797, "timeOnIcePerGame": 797.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.94736 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 627, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 627.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Mayfield", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476429, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 258, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 258.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Scott Mayfield", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 885, "timeOnIcePerGame": 885.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.57894 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1012, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1012.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Pelech", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476917, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 259, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 259.0, "shifts": 32, "shiftsPerGame": 32.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Pelech", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 1271, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1271.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.71875 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 568, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 568.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Holmstrom", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481601, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 24, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 24.0, "shTimeOnIce": 206, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 206.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Simon Holmstrom", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 798, "timeOnIcePerGame": 798.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.9 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 867, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 867.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Horvat", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477500, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 202, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 202.0, "shTimeOnIce": 140, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 140.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Bo Horvat", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 1209, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1209.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.375 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1426, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1426.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020081, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Schaefer", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "TBL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485366, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 195, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 195.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 30, "shiftsPerGame": 30.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Schaefer", "teamAbbrev": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 1621, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1621.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.03333 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8477950, "player": "Tony DeAngelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 967, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475231, "player": "Casey Cizikas", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 546, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 64 }, { "player_id": 8476419, "player": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 686, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 195 }, { "player_id": 8481711, "player": "Matias Maccelli", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 676, "PP_seconds": 187, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475151, "player": "Kyle Palmieri", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 721, "PP_seconds": 195, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475170, "player": "Brayden Schenn", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 837, "PP_seconds": 197, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476292, "player": "Ondrej Palat", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 830, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8482476, "player": "Emil Heineman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 711, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 110 }, { "player_id": 8485388, "player": "Victor Eklund", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 779, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479378, "player": "Logan Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1012, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 166 }, { "player_id": 8477506, "player": "Ryan Pulock", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 219 }, { "player_id": 8484221, "player": "Calum Ritchie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 783, "PP_seconds": 34, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477407, "player": "Anthony Duclair", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 778, "PP_seconds": 19, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476429, "player": "Scott Mayfield", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 627, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 258 }, { "player_id": 8476917, "player": "Adam Pelech", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1012, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 259 }, { "player_id": 8481601, "player": "Simon Holmstrom", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 568, "PP_seconds": 24, "SH_seconds": 206 }, { "player_id": 8477500, "player": "Bo Horvat", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 867, "PP_seconds": 202, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8485366, "player": "Matthew Schaefer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1426, "PP_seconds": 195, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14761, "PP_seconds": 1105, "SH_seconds": 1716 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020081, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020081/boxscore", "playerId": 8475170, "name": { "default": "B. 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Pelech" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:11", "shifts": 32 }, { "event_id": 2026020081, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020081/boxscore", "playerId": 8477506, "name": { "default": "R. Pulock" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:14", "shifts": 31 }, { "event_id": 2026020081, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020081/boxscore", "playerId": 8479378, "name": { "default": "L. Stanley" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:38", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020081, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020081/boxscore", "playerId": 8476429, "name": { "default": "S. Mayfield" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:45", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020081, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020081/boxscore", "playerId": 8485366, "name": { "default": "M. Schaefer" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "27:01", "shifts": 30 }, { "event_id": 2026020081, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NYI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020081/boxscore", "playerId": 8477950, "name": { "default": "T. DeAngelo" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:33", "shifts": 22 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.7556639566395664, 3.632014453477868 ], "Primary": [ 2.7207028107691307, 3.574030202556501 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020081/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8475231, "player": "Casey Cizikas", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8477407, "player": "Anthony Duclair", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8485388, "player": "Victor Eklund", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8482476, "player": "Emil Heineman", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8481601, "player": "Simon Holmstrom", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8477500, "player": "Bo Horvat", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8481711, "player": "Matias Maccelli", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8481237, "player": "Kyle MacLean", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8476419, "player": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8476292, "player": "Ondrej Palat", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8475151, "player": "Kyle Palmieri", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8484221, "player": "Calum Ritchie", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8475170, "player": "Brayden Schenn", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8477950, "player": "Tony DeAngelo", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8482516, "player": "Matthew Kessel", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8476429, "player": "Scott Mayfield", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8476917, "player": "Adam Pelech", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8477506, "player": "Ryan Pulock", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8481014, "player": "Alexander Romanov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8485366, "player": "Matthew Schaefer", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8479378, "player": "Logan Stanley", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8478009, "player": "Ilya Sorokin", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" }, { "team": "NYI", "player_id": 8473575, "player": "Semyon Varlamov", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NYI/current" } ], 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"Pulock", "otTimeOnIce": 821, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 43.21052, "playerId": 8477506, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 593, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.80263, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 12386, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 162.97368, "shifts": 2099, "shiftsPerGame": 27.61842, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Ryan Pulock", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 94920, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1248.94736, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.22153 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 79719, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1048.93421, "gamesPlayed": 76, "lastName": "DeAngelo", "otTimeOnIce": 632, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 33.26315, "playerId": 8477950, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 7286, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 95.86842, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 276, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.63157, "shifts": 1778, "shiftsPerGame": 23.39473, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tony DeAngelo", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 87281, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1148.43421, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.08942 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 69741, 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"NYI", "timeOnIce": 79294, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1003.72151, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.07437 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 54646, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 769.66197, "gamesPlayed": 71, "lastName": "Maccelli", "otTimeOnIce": 714, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 35.7, "playerId": 8481711, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 7400, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 104.22535, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 1277, "shiftsPerGame": 17.98591, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matias Maccelli", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 62046, "timeOnIcePerGame": 873.88732, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.58731 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 70433, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 858.93902, "gamesPlayed": 82, "lastName": "Heineman", "otTimeOnIce": 1042, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 54.8421, "playerId": 8482476, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 8516, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 103.85365, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 2802, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 34.17073, "shifts": 1675, "shiftsPerGame": 20.42682, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Emil Heineman", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 81751, "timeOnIcePerGame": 996.96341, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.80656 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 21108, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 727.86206, "gamesPlayed": 29, "lastName": "Kessel", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482516, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 5, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.17241, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 701, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 24.17241, "shifts": 488, "shiftsPerGame": 16.82758, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Kessel", "teamAbbrevs": "STL", "timeOnIce": 21814, "timeOnIcePerGame": 752.20689, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.70081 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 44485, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 684.38461, "gamesPlayed": 65, "lastName": "Ritchie", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484221, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 8033, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 123.58461, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 1093, "shiftsPerGame": 16.81538, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Calum Ritchie", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 52518, "timeOnIcePerGame": 807.96923, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.0494 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 99770, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1216.70731, "gamesPlayed": 82, "lastName": "Schaefer", "otTimeOnIce": 2220, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 116.8421, "playerId": 8485366, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 16294, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 198.70731, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 5375, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 65.54878, "shifts": 2204, "shiftsPerGame": 26.87804, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Schaefer", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 121439, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1480.96341, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.09936 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 781, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 781.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Eklund", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485388, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 149, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 149.0, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Victor Eklund", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 930, "timeOnIcePerGame": 930.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.66666 } ], "20262027": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 3591, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 718.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Palmieri", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475151, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1122, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 224.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 94, "shiftsPerGame": 18.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kyle Palmieri", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 4713, "timeOnIcePerGame": 942.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.13829 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3614, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 722.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Schenn", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475170, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1078, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 215.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 2, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.4, "shifts": 92, "shiftsPerGame": 18.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brayden Schenn", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 4694, "timeOnIcePerGame": 938.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.02173 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3140, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 628.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Cizikas", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475231, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 548, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 109.6, "shifts": 90, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Casey Cizikas", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 3702, "timeOnIcePerGame": 740.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.13333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3378, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 675.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Palat", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476292, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 363, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 72.6, "shifts": 86, "shiftsPerGame": 17.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ondrej Palat", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 3754, "timeOnIcePerGame": 750.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.65116 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3495, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 699.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Pageau", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476419, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 900, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 180.0, "shifts": 112, "shiftsPerGame": 22.4, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jean-Gabriel Pageau", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 4408, "timeOnIcePerGame": 881.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.35714 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1263, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 631.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Mayfield", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476429, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 360, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 180.0, "shifts": 38, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Scott Mayfield", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 1637, "timeOnIcePerGame": 818.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.07894 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4948, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 989.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Pelech", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476917, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 37, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1203, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 240.6, "shifts": 148, "shiftsPerGame": 29.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Pelech", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 6188, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1237.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.81081 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3433, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 686.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Duclair", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477407, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 410, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 92, "shiftsPerGame": 18.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Anthony Duclair", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 3843, "timeOnIcePerGame": 768.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.77173 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4012, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 802.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Horvat", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477500, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1092, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 218.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 709, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 141.8, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Bo Horvat", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 5813, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1162.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.54782 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4178, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 835.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Pulock", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477506, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1217, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 243.4, "shifts": 127, "shiftsPerGame": 25.4, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Ryan Pulock", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 5408, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1081.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.58267 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4594, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 918.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "DeAngelo", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477950, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 408, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 81.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 107, "shiftsPerGame": 21.4, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tony DeAngelo", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 5002, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1000.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.74766 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4988, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 997.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Stanley", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479378, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 838, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 167.6, "shifts": 125, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Logan Stanley", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 5826, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1165.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.608 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2390, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 796.66666, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Romanov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481014, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 579, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 193.0, "shifts": 59, "shiftsPerGame": 19.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alexander Romanov", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 2982, "timeOnIcePerGame": 994.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.54237 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3557, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 711.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Holmstrom", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481601, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 467, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 93.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 844, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 168.8, "shifts": 109, "shiftsPerGame": 21.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Simon Holmstrom", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 4868, "timeOnIcePerGame": 973.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.66055 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3442, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 688.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Maccelli", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481711, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1127, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 225.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 82, "shiftsPerGame": 16.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matias Maccelli", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 4569, "timeOnIcePerGame": 913.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.71951 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3769, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 753.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Heineman", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482476, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 82, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 16.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 768, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 153.6, "shifts": 106, "shiftsPerGame": 21.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Emil Heineman", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 4619, "timeOnIcePerGame": 923.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.57547 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3789, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 757.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Ritchie", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484221, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 508, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 101.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 4, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.8, "shifts": 89, "shiftsPerGame": 17.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Calum Ritchie", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 4301, "timeOnIcePerGame": 860.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.32584 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6382, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1276.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Schaefer", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485366, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1201, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 240.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 45, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.0, "shifts": 134, "shiftsPerGame": 26.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Schaefer", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 7628, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1525.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.92537 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3537, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 707.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Eklund", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485388, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 468, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 93.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 85, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Victor Eklund", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 4005, "timeOnIcePerGame": 801.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.11764 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892495", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.7556639566395664, 3.632014453477868 ], "Primary": [ 2.7207028107691307, 3.574030202556501 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.719505, 3.31097 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Mathew Barzal", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T16:57Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8481014, "incumbent": "Alexander Romanov", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-07T17:37Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8481014, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481014/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "22:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 64, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.04, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 100, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Islanders" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Islanders", "fr": "Islanders de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "19:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 17, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Islanders" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Islanders", "fr": "Islanders de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "16:34", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Islanders" }, "teamName": { "default": "New York Islanders", "fr": "Islanders de New York" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New York", "fr": "de New York" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8477950, "player": "Tony DeAngelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 967, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479378, "player": "Logan Stanley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1012, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 166 }, { "player_id": 8477506, "player": "Ryan Pulock", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 219 }, { "player_id": 8476429, "player": "Scott Mayfield", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 627, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 258 }, { "player_id": 8476917, "player": "Adam Pelech", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1012, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 259 }, { "player_id": 8485366, "player": "Matthew Schaefer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1426, "PP_seconds": 195, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders", "market": { "id": "401892495", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892495", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.375658+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.563935+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 120.0, "away_line_price": -142.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 114.0, "under_price": -135.0, "home_ml": -218.0, "away_ml": 180.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.8763504968383016, "combined": 6.387678410117434, "spread_buffer": -0.6236495031616984, "total_difference": -0.11232158988256558 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.8763504968383016, "combined": 6.387678410117434, "spread_buffer": -0.6236495031616984, "total_difference": -0.11232158988256558 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.8533273917873703, "combined": 6.294733013325631, "spread_buffer": -0.6466726082126297, "total_difference": -0.20526698667436882 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.8533273917873703, "combined": 6.294733013325631, "spread_buffer": -0.6466726082126297, "total_difference": -0.20526698667436882 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5914650000000004, "combined": 6.030475, "spread_buffer": -0.9085349999999996, "total_difference": -0.46952499999999997 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5914650000000004, "combined": 6.030475, "spread_buffer": -0.9085349999999996, "total_difference": -0.46952499999999997 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.5914650000000004, "combined": 6.030475, "spread_buffer": -0.9085349999999996, "total_difference": -0.46952499999999997 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.5914650000000004, "combined": 6.030475, "spread_buffer": -0.9085349999999996, "total_difference": -0.46952499999999997 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401871053", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401871053", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3662", "fullName": "AmFirst Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Jacksonville", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2229", "away_name": "Florida International Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "55", "home_name": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "conditional_score": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 29.25, 27.75 ], "current_rates": [ 18.8, 12.2 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.5, "prior_rates": [ 29.0, 26.153846153846153 ], "current_rates": [ 27.333333333333332, 22.5 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified October12 prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 6.2180128205128185, 42.21801282051282 ], "home": [ 7.52878205128205, 43.52878205128205 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "conditional_score": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2813, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "coefficient_sha256": "76d364e5ad2c8e45a8ee7cc9df271eb65eafc9de48dc32d4401120a2aa2fea51" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified October12 prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 6.2180128205128185, 42.21801282051282 ], "home": [ 7.52878205128205, 43.52878205128205 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 27.75, "margin": 1.5, "event_ids": [ "401766898", "401752811", "401757233", "401757259", "401757171", "401757281", "401757285", "401757291", "401757296", "401757301", "401757305", "401757311" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.8, "pa": 12.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401862699", "401866414", "401862771", "401867909", "401871066" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 29.0, "pa": 26.153846153846153, "margin": 2.8461538461538467, "event_ids": [ "401756848", "401757227", "401757234", "401757260", "401757269", "401757279", "401757283", "401757292", "401757297", "401757302", "401757305", "401757312", "401777325" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.333333333333332, "pa": 22.5, "margin": 4.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401868140", "401866418", "401869948", "401871048", "401871051" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.701923076923077, 28.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.65, 19.766666666666666 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.04205128205128226, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified October12 prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 6.2180128205128185, 42.21801282051282 ], "home": [ 7.52878205128205, 43.52878205128205 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "conditional_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Qualifying availability-only human sensitivity is separate from the registered statistical forecast. Unresolved status is conditional; isolated and overlap branches remain in the football ledger. Trades receive no automatic deduction.", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 27.75, "margin": 1.5, "event_ids": [ "401766898", "401752811", "401757233", "401757259", "401757171", "401757281", "401757285", "401757291", "401757296", "401757301", "401757305", "401757311" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.8, "pa": 12.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401862699", "401866414", "401862771", "401867909", "401871066" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 29.0, "pa": 26.153846153846153, "margin": 2.8461538461538467, "event_ids": [ "401756848", "401757227", "401757234", "401757260", "401757269", "401757279", "401757283", "401757292", "401757297", "401757302", "401757305", "401757312", "401777325" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.333333333333332, "pa": 22.5, "margin": 4.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401868140", "401866418", "401869948", "401871048", "401871051" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.701923076923077, 28.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.65, 19.766666666666666 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.04205128205128226, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "caps": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "reason": "No comparable verified October12 prospective cohort." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 6.2180128205128185, 42.21801282051282 ], "home": [ 7.52878205128205, 43.52878205128205 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty", "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Florida International Panthers: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger. Jacksonville State Gamecocks: Covered QB/RB/WR/TE roles screened; no qualifying trigger.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 13 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2813 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. away: 12 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 13 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2813 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "All four base scores loaded unchanged from latest shared cutoff; unrounded conditional -3affects only Delaware. ON/OFF same arithmetic; effect on winner disagreement retained.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "AmFirst Stadium; listed 2026-10-14T00:00Z. AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville Alabama,8PM ET/7PM CT. Both played Oct7: six-calendar-day turnaround; FIU travels from Miami, Jacksonville State returns from Kennesaw. Official coach explains advance preparation and normal-practice sequence adapted to short week.", "details": { "event_id": "401871053", "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "Florida International Panthers", "home": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "start_et": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3662", "fullName": "AmFirst Stadium", "address": { "city": "Jacksonville", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": false }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000&groups=80", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.385814+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://fiusports.com/news/2026/10/11/football-faces-off-with-jax-state-in-first-road-cusa-game-on-tuesday-night.aspx", "https://jaxstatesports.com/sports/2021/8/25/2016-football-game-notes" ], "context": [ "AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville Alabama,8PM ET/7PM CT. Both played Oct7: six-calendar-day turnaround; FIU travels from Miami, Jacksonville State returns from Kennesaw.", "Official coach explains advance preparation and normal-practice sequence adapted to short week." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Florida International Panthers", "previous_game": { "id": "401871066", "date": "2026-10-08T00:04Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "166", "away_name": "New Mexico State Aggies", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "2229", "home_name": "Florida International Panthers", "home_score": 22.0, "day": 20734.00277777778 }, "days_between_start_dates": 6, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "previous_game": { "id": "401871051", "date": "2026-10-07T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "away": "55", "away_name": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "away_score": 27.0, "home": "338", "home_name": "Kennesaw State Owls", "home_score": 26.0, "day": 20733.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 6, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/97,100/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:38:19.782072+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-12T23:06:36+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 75, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 74 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 69, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 87 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 90 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T23:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 66, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 90 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS outdoor hourly conditions; no unregistered numerical weather adjustment." }, "stage_label": "FBS / CUSA regular season" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "retrieved_utc: 2026-10-13T05:38:19.782072+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-12T23:06:36+00:00; periods: number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 75; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 74; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 69; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 87; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 67; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.77777777777778; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 90; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-13T23:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 66; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 0; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 17.22222222222222; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 90; windSpeed: 0 mph; windDirection: ; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small; shortForecast: Clear; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Official NWS outdoor hourly conditions; no unregistered numerical weather adjustment.", "details": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/97,100/forecast/hourly", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:38:19.782072+00:00", "updateTime": "2026-10-12T23:06:36+00:00", "periods": [ { "number": 21, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T19:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 75, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.88888888888889 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 74 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 22, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 69, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 18.333333333333332 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 87 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 23, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T21:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 67, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.77777777777778 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 90 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" }, { "number": 24, "name": "", "startTime": "2026-10-13T22:00:00-05:00", "endTime": "2026-10-13T23:00:00-05:00", "isDaytime": false, "temperature": 66, "temperatureUnit": "F", "temperatureTrend": null, "probabilityOfPrecipitation": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 0 }, "dewpoint": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:degC", "value": 17.22222222222222 }, "relativeHumidity": { "unitCode": "wmoUnit:percent", "value": 90 }, "windSpeed": "0 mph", "windDirection": "", "icon": "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "shortForecast": "Clear", "detailedForecast": "" } ], "interpretation": "Official NWS outdoor hourly conditions; no unregistered numerical weather adjustment." }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty", "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/97,100/forecast/hourly", "https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/skc?size=small", "https://fiusports.com/news/2026/10/11/football-faces-off-with-jax-state-in-first-road-cusa-game-on-tuesday-night.aspx", "https://jaxstatesports.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/Game7-FIU.pdf", "https://jaxstatesports.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GameNotesFB26GameSixJaxState.pdf", "https://jaxstatesports.com/sports/2021/8/25/2016-football-game-notes", "https://sdataprod.ncaa.com?meta=GetContests_web&extensions=%7B%22persistedQuery%22%3A%7B%22version%22%3A1%2C%22sha256Hash%22%3A%224bcb5e6432fa9da365c0c19af01b1f9015cc7eb5c21e7af2dba308784a166df7%22%7D%7D&queryName=GetContests_web&variables=%7B%22sportCode%22%3A%22MFB%22%2C%22division%22%3A11%2C%22seasonYear%22%3A2026%2C%22contestDate%22%3Anull%2C%22week%22%3A7%7D", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2229/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2229/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2393/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/2393/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/48/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/48/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/55/schedule?season=2025&seasontype=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/teams/55/schedule?season=2026&seasontype=2" ], "tu": { "id": "401871053", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401871053", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3662", "fullName": "AmFirst Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Jacksonville", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2229", "away_name": "Florida International Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "55", "home_name": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-ncaaf-mismatch-v1", "formula": "Documented NCAA mismatch v1: 50/50 prior/current matchup, bounded \u00b110 0.20 strength correction, home +1.5 if nonneutral, scores clipped 3\u201370", "away_score": 24.21801282051282, "home_score": 25.52878205128205, "unrounded_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 24.2, 25.5 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 29.25, "pa": 27.75, "margin": 1.5, "event_ids": [ "401766898", "401752811", "401757233", "401757259", "401757171", "401757281", "401757285", "401757291", "401757296", "401757301", "401757305", "401757311" ] }, "2026": { "games": 5, "pf": 18.8, "pa": 12.2, "margin": 6.600000000000001, "event_ids": [ "401862699", "401866414", "401862771", "401867909", "401871066" ] } }, "home": { "2025": { "games": 13, "pf": 29.0, "pa": 26.153846153846153, "margin": 2.8461538461538467, "event_ids": [ "401756848", "401757227", "401757234", "401757260", "401757269", "401757279", "401757283", "401757292", "401757297", "401757302", "401757305", "401757312", "401777325" ] }, "2026": { "games": 6, "pf": 27.333333333333332, "pa": 22.5, "margin": 4.833333333333332, "event_ids": [ "401864577", "401868140", "401866418", "401869948", "401871048", "401871051" ] } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 27.701923076923077, 28.375 ], "current_matchup": [ 20.65, 19.766666666666666 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.04205128205128226, "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 1.5 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap": 0.5, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 6 }, "other_volatile_component_bonus": 0 }, "ranges": { "away": [ 6.2180128205128185, 42.21801282051282 ], "home": [ 7.52878205128205, 43.52878205128205 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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point model probabilities uncalibrated.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 4, "minimum_total_buffer": 5, "maximum_tiers": 2, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 4, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated joint score distribution; probabilities withheld" }, "football_review": { "event_id": "401871053", "identity": { "id": "401871053", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3662", "fullName": "AmFirst Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Jacksonville", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2229", "away_name": "Florida International Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "55", "home_name": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "base_scores": { "classic-2.0.0": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "primary-2.0.0": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "tighten-up-conservative-on": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "tighten-up-conservative-off": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ] }, "teams": [ { "team_id": "2229", "team": "Florida International Panthers", "side": "away", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "JJ Kohl", "Zach Marker" ], "availability": [ { "player": "JJ Kohl", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Zach Marker", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Anthony Carrie", "Devonte Lyons" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Anthony Carrie", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Devonte Lyons", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Greg Gaines III", "Maguire Anderson", "Kyle McNeal", "Jojo Stone", "Eric Nelson Jr." ], "availability": [ { "player": "Greg Gaines III", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Maguire Anderson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kyle McNeal", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jojo Stone", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Eric Nelson Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Jackson Verdugo", "James Resar" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jackson Verdugo", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "James Resar", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "JJ Kohl", "Zach Marker" ], "availability": [ { "player": "JJ Kohl", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Zach Marker", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Anthony Carrie", "Devonte Lyons" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Anthony Carrie", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Devonte Lyons", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Greg Gaines III", "Maguire Anderson", "Kyle McNeal", "Jojo Stone", "Eric Nelson Jr." ], "availability": [ { "player": "Greg Gaines III", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Maguire Anderson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kyle McNeal", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jojo Stone", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Eric Nelson Jr.", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Jackson Verdugo", "James Resar" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jackson Verdugo", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "James Resar", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Current weekly depth identifies Kohl/Carrie/Gaines/Anderson/McNeal/Verdugo with reserve succession and five-game starts. All reviewed; no current unavailability identified. Routes/targets unavailable.", "reference": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [], "overlap": "Single covered QB trigger; no RB/WR/TE penalty identified or stacked. QB passing loss not deducted again from receivers.", "status": "No trigger identified" }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Current role holders and material committee/receivingTE contributors reviewed. Routine rotations and offseason transfers are not availability deductions. No evidence supports other current covered-role absence.", "official_depth_source": "https://jaxstatesports.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/GameNotesFB26GameSixJaxState.pdf", "reference_lineup": "Official current game notes p13weekly depth chart, current statistics; Oct11official preview.", "offensive_line": [ "Jeremy Smith", "Antonio Tripp Jr.", "Daveion Harley", "Zaire Flournoy", "Nickolas Molina" ], "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / NO TRIGGER IDENTIFIED" }, { "team_id": "55", "team": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "side": "home", "reviewed_positions": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Caden Creel", "Jack Moran", "Kadyn Palmer" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Caden Creel", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jack Moran", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kadyn Palmer", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jalen Likely", "Lucas Farrington", "Khristian Lando", "Cedric Kouemi" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jalen Likely", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Lucas Farrington", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Khristian Lando", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Cedric Kouemi", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Deondre Johnson", "Darius Cannon", "Ronnel Johnson", "Jamill Williams" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Deondre Johnson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Darius Cannon", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Ronnel Johnson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jamill Williams", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Luke Gilbert", "David Alpers III", "Jameson Scissum" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Luke Gilbert", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "David Alpers III", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jameson Scissum", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "availability_inventory": [ { "position": "QB", "depth_order": [ "Caden Creel", "Jack Moran", "Kadyn Palmer" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Caden Creel", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jack Moran", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Kadyn Palmer", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "RB", "depth_order": [ "Jalen Likely", "Lucas Farrington", "Khristian Lando", "Cedric Kouemi" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Jalen Likely", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Lucas Farrington", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Khristian Lando", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Cedric Kouemi", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "WR", "depth_order": [ "Deondre Johnson", "Darius Cannon", "Ronnel Johnson", "Jamill Williams" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Deondre Johnson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Darius Cannon", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Ronnel Johnson", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jamill Williams", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } }, { "position": "TE", "depth_order": [ "Luke Gilbert", "David Alpers III", "Jameson Scissum" ], "availability": [ { "player": "Luke Gilbert", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "David Alpers III", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." }, { "player": "Jameson Scissum", "status": "Reviewed current game notes; no current unavailability established, final lineup not certified." } ], "comparisons": { "current_role_basis": "Creel113/1701423yards10TD5INT; Likely40carries201yards; Farrington28/165; Lando19/62; Kouemi16/57. Williams21catches246yards5TD despite nominal reserve; Cannon20/165; Deondre18/338; Ronnel13/142. Gilbert10/2312TD primary receivingTE; Alpers3/40. No current absence established.", "reference": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "two_season_comparison": "No triggered replacement; full official career/current game notes retained; no fabricated adjustment." } } ], "isolated_scenarios": [], "joint_scenario": { "branches": [], "overlap": "Single covered QB trigger; no RB/WR/TE penalty identified or stacked. QB passing loss not deducted again from receivers.", "status": "No trigger identified" }, "no_trigger_or_remainder_review": "Current role holders and material committee/receivingTE contributors reviewed. Routine rotations and offseason transfers are not availability deductions. No evidence supports other current covered-role absence.", "official_depth_source": "https://jaxstatesports.com/documents/download/2026/10/11/Game7-FIU.pdf", "reference_lineup": "Official team-issued game notes p7depth chart (media relations explicitly labels chart unofficial), p9player notes, p26current stats; Oct9coach transcript.", "offensive_line": [ "Jeremiah Orr", "Amarii Atchison", "Lance Johnson", "Hadine Diaby", "Lucas Mrachkovskiy", "Ryan Walker", "Cam Stancil" ], "status": "REVIEW COMPLETE / NO TRIGGER IDENTIFIED" } ], "release_gate": "Existing gates retained", "decision": "No live promotion before prices and all gates", "defense_protection_inventory": "Official game notes defensive depth and current statistics retained; no independent justified turnover/field-position/tempo conversion. Do not automatically raise opponent points.", "offensive_line_review": [ { "team": "Florida International Panthers", "line": [ "Jeremy Smith", "Antonio Tripp Jr.", "Daveion Harley", "Zaire Flournoy", "Nickolas Molina" ], "assessment": "Official current personnel/starts reviewed; game-day limitations not individually certified. No invented incremental adjustment." }, { "team": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "line": [ "Jeremiah Orr", "Amarii Atchison", "Lance Johnson", "Hadine Diaby", "Lucas Mrachkovskiy", "Ryan Walker", "Cam Stancil" ], "assessment": "Official current personnel/starts reviewed; game-day limitations not individually certified. No invented incremental adjustment." } ], "risks": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty", "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ] }, "football_supplement": { "event_id": "401871053", "identity": { "id": "401871053", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3662", "fullName": "AmFirst Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Jacksonville", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2229", "away_name": "Florida International Panthers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "55", "home_name": "Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "classic-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "home_margin": 1.510780885780882, "total": 48.83770396270396, "gate": "Pending existing model/stress/market gates; no new personnel deduction", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "No supported current qualifying availability trigger.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ], "home_selection": [ 23.66346153846154, 25.174242424242422 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 48.83770396270396, "under_selection_total": 48.83770396270396 } }, "primary-2.0.0": { "base_score": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "home_margin": 10.791832324931342, "total": 49.6556452215006, "gate": "Pending existing model/stress/market gates; no new personnel deduction", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "No supported current qualifying availability trigger.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ], "home_selection": [ 19.43190644828463, 30.22373877321597 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 49.6556452215006, "under_selection_total": 49.6556452215006 } }, "tighten-up-conservative-on": { "base_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_margin": 1.3107692307692318, "total": 49.74679487179487, "gate": "Pending existing model/stress/market gates; no new personnel deduction", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "No supported current qualifying availability trigger.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487, "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487 } }, "tighten-up-conservative-off": { "base_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "statistical_replacement_forecast": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": 0, "human_deductions": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_margin": 1.3107692307692318, "total": 49.74679487179487, "gate": "Pending existing model/stress/market gates; no new personnel deduction", "other_adjustments": [], "production_assumption": "No supported current qualifying availability trigger.", "conditional_base_branch": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "opponent_offense_adverse": { "away_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ] }, "total_adverse": { "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487, "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487 } } }, "production_scenario": "NO TRIGGER", "scenario_choice_by_team": { "away": "No trigger", "home": "No trigger" }, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty", "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "desk_findings": { "Parker Fields": "FIU Kohl/Carrie/main WRs/Verdugo and Jax Creel/Likely+committee/main WRs/Gilbert reviewed. Gilbert is primary receivingTE despite nominal backup depth. No supported availability deductions; final lineup remains unconfirmed.", "Gideon Marsh": "All four base scores loaded unchanged from latest shared cutoff; unrounded conditional -3affects only Delaware. ON/OFF same arithmetic; effect on winner disagreement retained." }, "conditional_and_overlap_source": "football-replacement-ledger.json" }, "offensive_review": [], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "market": { "id": "401871053", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871053", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.375658+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.559680+00:00", "home_line": -3.0, "away_line": 3.0, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 43.5, "under_line": 43.5, "over_price": -112.0, "under_price": -108.0, "home_ml": -142.0, "away_ml": 120.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -3.0, "average_total": 43.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.510780885780882, "combined": 48.83770396270396, "spread_buffer": -1.489219114219118, "total_difference": 5.337703962703962 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.510780885780882, "combined": 48.83770396270396, "spread_buffer": -1.489219114219118, "total_difference": 5.337703962703962 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 10.791832324931342, "combined": 49.6556452215006, "spread_buffer": 7.791832324931342, "total_difference": 6.155645221500599 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 10.791832324931342, "combined": 49.6556452215006, "spread_buffer": 7.791832324931342, "total_difference": 6.155645221500599 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / provisional model", "reasons": [ "PASS / provisional model" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.3107692307692318, "combined": 49.74679487179487, "spread_buffer": -1.6892307692307682, "total_difference": 6.246794871794869 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.3107692307692318, "combined": 49.74679487179487, "spread_buffer": -1.6892307692307682, "total_difference": 6.246794871794869 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401871053", "configuration": "ON", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871053", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.375658+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.559680+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": 3.0, "home_line": -3.0, "pick": "Florida International Panthers +3", "price": -115.0, "canonical_buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "worst_stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318, "base_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682, "adverse_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 28.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318 } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty", "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -1.3107692307692318, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682, "adverse_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 28.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682, "adverse_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 28.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487, "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, "total": { "event_id": "401871053", "configuration": "ON", "market": "total", "matchup": "Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871053", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.375658+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.559680+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 43.5, "home_line": -3.0, "pick": "Over 43.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 6.246794871794869, "required_buffer": 5, "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.246794871794869, "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.246794871794869, "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687, "base_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 6.246794871794869, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869, "adverse_score": [ 21.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687 } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty", "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "ELIGIBLE", "decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 3.2467948717948687, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 6.246794871794869, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869, "adverse_score": [ 21.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 6.246794871794869, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869, "adverse_score": [ 21.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487, "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.3107692307692318, "combined": 49.74679487179487, "spread_buffer": -1.6892307692307682, "total_difference": 6.246794871794869 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.3107692307692318, "combined": 49.74679487179487, "spread_buffer": -1.6892307692307682, "total_difference": 6.246794871794869 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "event_id": "401871053", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "spread", "matchup": "Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871053", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.375658+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.559680+00:00", "selection_side": "away", "line": 3.0, "home_line": -3.0, "pick": "Florida International Panthers +3", "price": -115.0, "canonical_buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "required_buffer": 3, "minimum_branch_buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "worst_applicable_buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "worst_stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318, "base_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682, "adverse_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 28.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318 } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty", "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Canonical mean buffer below required floor", "At least one frozen availability branch below required floor", "Required3point adverse test fails in at least one branch" ], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "same_side_every_case": false, "worst_buffer": -1.3107692307692318, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682, "adverse_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 28.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 1.6892307692307682, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.6892307692307682, "adverse_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 28.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": -1.3107692307692318 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487, "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." }, "total": { "event_id": "401871053", "configuration": "OFF", "market": "total", "matchup": "Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks", "provider": "DraftKings", "quote_index": 0, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401871053", "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.375658+00:00", "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.559680+00:00", "selection_side": "over", "line": 43.5, "home_line": -3.0, "pick": "Over 43.5", "price": -112.0, "canonical_buffer": 6.246794871794869, "required_buffer": 4, "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.246794871794869, "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.246794871794869, "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687, "base_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "adjusted_score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 6.246794871794869, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869, "adverse_score": [ 21.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687 } ], "unresolved_high": 0, "unresolved_medium": 0, "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "College final lineup and short-week uncertainty", "detail": "No identified current unavailable covered starter in official notes. Both six-day turnarounds verified; coach explains planned preparation. Routine future lineup confirmation is not an invented medium player absence.", "markets": [ "winner", "spread", "total" ], "resolved": false } ], "state": "ELIGIBLE", "decision": "CANDIDATE_ELIGIBLE", "reasons": [], "tier_downgrade_required": 0, "second_review_completed": true, "independent_buffer_algebra": true, "stress": { "adverse_points": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_every_case": true, "worst_buffer": 3.2467948717948687, "worst_case": { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 6.246794871794869, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869, "adverse_score": [ 21.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687 }, "scenario_count": 1, "all_cases": [ { "branch": "production/conditional", "score": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "buffer": 6.246794871794869, "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.246794871794869, "adverse_score": [ 21.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "stressed_buffer": 3.2467948717948687 } ], "opponent_offense_check": "Apply frozen opponent upper endpoint, then the registered3point adverse swing once. No invented new opponent coefficient.", "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selection kept for every case. A failed selection never automatically promotes its opposite." }, "preprice_opponent_bounds": { "away_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ], "home_selection": [ 24.21801282051282, 25.52878205128205 ] }, "total_adverse_bounds": { "over_selection_total": 49.74679487179487, "under_selection_total": 49.74679487179487 }, "calibration": "Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities; candidate eligibility does not assign a publication tier." } }, "publication_status": "Over 43.5 (-112) / Pick of the Day", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892496", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892496", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "4", "home_name": "Chicago Blackhawks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.4872420262664163, 2.913789868667917 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4872420262664163, 2.913789868667917 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4872420262664163, 2.913789868667917 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.573170731707317, 3.268292682926829 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6666666666666665, 2.8333333333333335 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 2.597560975609756, 3.3536585365853657 ], "current_rates": [ 2.0, 4.333333333333333 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4146299999999998, 5.41463 ], "home": [ 0.8536549999999998, 4.853655 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.5863663691262904, 2.9308275171975744 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.5863663691262904, 2.9308275171975744 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.5863663691262904, 2.9308275171975744 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4146299999999998, 5.41463 ], "home": [ 0.8536549999999998, 4.853655 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.53658, "pa": 3.14634, "official_team_id": 5, "official_team_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16, "official_team_name": "Chicago Blackhawks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4146299999999998, 5.41463 ], "home": [ 0.8536549999999998, 4.853655 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.53658, "pa": 3.14634, "official_team_id": 5, "official_team_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.56097, "pa": 3.29268, "official_team_id": 16, "official_team_name": "Chicago Blackhawks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4146299999999998, 5.41463 ], "home": [ 0.8536549999999998, 4.853655 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "PIT: Kuzmenko practice return is bereavement-related, not current confirmed medical absence; possible Kindel/Koivunen line. Van Riemsdyk will not travel; acquired Ryan Johnson has no assumed NHL debut. Stastney actual reference already reflects October7 trade. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. CHI: Bedard potential return verified primary; first-line center with Kantserov/Kane and PP with Bertuzzi/Byram identified. Conditional return replaces one center role, not added player points. Nazar suspension kept separate. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "United Center; listed 2026-10-14T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892496", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "home": "Chicago Blackhawks", "start_et": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "previous_game": { "id": "401892475", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1837", "fullName": "PPG Paints Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "9", "away_name": "Dallas Stars", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "16", "home_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "previous_game": { "id": "401892476", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "7", "away_name": "Carolina Hurricanes", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "4", "home_name": "Chicago Blackhawks", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. 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No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\scoring\\slate-NHL.json", "sha256": "33eafda3515f36bcc42de3a35ce8089b82c84b630ad604df844ae9b8e929e0cd" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\NHL.json", "sha256": "328e317c45660222a5a093b521ab735af9e48c112148505576ad2984fabf0be8" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Tracking-only policy; explicit sport activation and calibrated buffers/distribution absent.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": 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"Ben Kindel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 676, "PP_seconds": 352, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8471675, "player": "Sidney Crosby", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1030, "PP_seconds": 363, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482475, "player": "Egor Chinakhov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 798, "PP_seconds": 153, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8481527, "player": "Kaedan Korczak", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 170 }, { "player_id": 8483398, "player": "Declan Carlile", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 912, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 126 }, { "player_id": 8475810, "player": "Bryan Rust", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 971, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8481582, "player": "Nick Robertson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 28 }, { "player_id": 8474578, "player": "Erik Karlsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1191, "PP_seconds": 340, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8471215, "player": "Evgeni Malkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 795, "PP_seconds": 372, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480980, "player": "Connor Dewar", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 603, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 131 }, { "player_id": 8481481, "player": "Blake Lizotte", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 594, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 160 }, { "player_id": 8482148, "player": "Hendrix Lapierre", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 517, "PP_seconds": 168, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479398, "player": "Samuel Girard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1162, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8481725, "player": "Elmer Soderblom", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 502, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8471724, "player": "Kris Letang", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1004, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8478438, "player": "Tommy Novak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 159, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481056, "player": "Spencer Stastney", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 778, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14729, "PP_seconds": 2655, "SH_seconds": 1164 }, "conditional_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional return role sensitivity", "return_player": { "team": "PIT", "player_id": 8483808, "player": "Andrei Kuzmenko", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PIT/current" }, "displaced_slot": { "player_id": 8481725, "player": "Elmer Soderblom", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 502, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8476483, "player": "Rickard Rakell", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 954, "PP_seconds": 372, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8485414, "player": "Ben Kindel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 676, "PP_seconds": 352, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8471675, "player": "Sidney Crosby", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1030, "PP_seconds": 363, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482475, "player": "Egor Chinakhov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 798, "PP_seconds": 153, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8481527, "player": "Kaedan Korczak", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 170 }, { "player_id": 8483398, "player": "Declan Carlile", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 912, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 126 }, { "player_id": 8475810, "player": "Bryan Rust", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 971, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8481582, "player": "Nick Robertson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 28 }, { "player_id": 8474578, "player": "Erik Karlsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1191, "PP_seconds": 340, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8471215, "player": "Evgeni Malkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 795, "PP_seconds": 372, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480980, "player": "Connor Dewar", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 603, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 131 }, { "player_id": 8481481, "player": "Blake Lizotte", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 594, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 160 }, { "player_id": 8482148, "player": "Hendrix Lapierre", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 517, "PP_seconds": 168, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479398, "player": "Samuel Girard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1162, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8483808, "player": "Andrei Kuzmenko", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 502, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8471724, "player": "Kris Letang", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1004, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8478438, "player": "Tommy Novak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 159, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481056, "player": "Spencer Stastney", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 778, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14729, "PP_seconds": 2655, "SH_seconds": 1164 }, "calculation": "Transfer identified observed same-position role seconds to returning player; no added team exposure or goal/assist double count. Bedard primary top-line/PP1 role supported; exact displaced center and all other returns analyst sensitivity, not confirmed coach decisions.", "previous_current_role_samples": [ { "event_id": 2026020026, "date": "2026-10-03", "stage": "regular", "team": "PIT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020026/boxscore", "playerId": 8483808, "name": { "default": "A. Kuzmenko" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:43", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020042, "date": "2026-10-05", "stage": "regular", "team": "PIT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020042/boxscore", "playerId": 8483808, "name": { "default": "A. Kuzmenko" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:17", "shifts": 16 } ] } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "PIT", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8481582, "name": { "default": "N. 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"player_id": 8481668, "player": "Arturs Silovs", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/PIT/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "abbreviation": "PIT", "player": "Andrei Kuzmenko", "player_id": "5077308", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T16:00Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/16/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.486083+00:00" }, { "team": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "abbreviation": "PIT", "player": "Justin Brazeau", "player_id": "4063605", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-27T15:26Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/16/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.486083+00:00" }, { "team": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "abbreviation": "PIT", "player": "Ryan Graves", "player_id": "3042122", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-27T15:21Z" 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"evTimeOnIce": 1151, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 575.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Soderblom", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481725, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 110, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 55.0, "shifts": 28, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Elmer Soderblom", "teamAbbrevs": "PIT", "timeOnIce": 1261, "timeOnIcePerGame": 630.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.03571 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3762, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 627.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Lapierre", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482148, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 550, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 91.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 103, "shiftsPerGame": 17.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Hendrix Lapierre", "teamAbbrevs": "PIT", "timeOnIce": 4312, "timeOnIcePerGame": 718.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.86407 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4768, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 794.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Chinakhov", "otTimeOnIce": 176, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 58.66666, "playerId": 8482475, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 892, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 148.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 36, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.0, "shifts": 125, "shiftsPerGame": 20.83333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Egor Chinakhov", "teamAbbrevs": "PIT", "timeOnIce": 5696, "timeOnIcePerGame": 949.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.568 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2982, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 745.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Koivunen", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482758, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 278, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 69.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 21, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.25, "shifts": 68, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ville Koivunen", "teamAbbrevs": "PIT", "timeOnIce": 3281, "timeOnIcePerGame": 820.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.25 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5693, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 948.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Carlile", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483398, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 4, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 969, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 161.5, "shifts": 132, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Declan Carlile", "teamAbbrevs": "PIT", "timeOnIce": 6666, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1111.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1210, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 605.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Kuzmenko", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483808, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 230, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 115.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 32, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Andrei Kuzmenko", "teamAbbrevs": "PIT", "timeOnIce": 1440, "timeOnIcePerGame": 720.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3776, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 755.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Kindel", "otTimeOnIce": 245, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 81.66666, "playerId": 8485414, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1046, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 209.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 536, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 107.2, "shifts": 104, "shiftsPerGame": 20.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Ben Kindel", "teamAbbrevs": "PIT", "timeOnIce": 5358, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1071.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.51923 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892496", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.4872420262664163, 2.913789868667917 ], "Primary": [ 3.5863663691262904, 2.9308275171975744 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8483808, "incumbent": "Andrei Kuzmenko", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T16:00Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8483808, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483808/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 11, "avgToi": "14:49", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 37, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 15, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 6, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.102564, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 39, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "17:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.153846, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "16:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 22, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 17, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 5, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 3, "shootingPctg": 0.16129, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 31, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "18:15", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.176471, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 17, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "14:55", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 52, "goals": 13, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 25, "powerPlayGoals": 8, "powerPlayPoints": 13, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.188406, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 69, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:30", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "12:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476483, "player": "Rickard Rakell", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 954, "PP_seconds": 372, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8485414, "player": "Ben Kindel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 676, "PP_seconds": 352, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8471675, "player": "Sidney Crosby", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1030, "PP_seconds": 363, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482475, "player": "Egor Chinakhov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 798, "PP_seconds": 153, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8475810, "player": "Bryan Rust", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 971, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8481582, "player": "Nick Robertson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 28 }, { "player_id": 8471215, "player": "Evgeni Malkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 795, "PP_seconds": 372, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480980, "player": "Connor Dewar", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 603, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 131 }, { "player_id": 8481481, "player": "Blake Lizotte", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 594, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 160 }, { "player_id": 8482148, "player": "Hendrix Lapierre", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 517, "PP_seconds": 168, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481725, "player": "Elmer Soderblom", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 502, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478438, "player": "Tommy Novak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 159, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8479638, "incumbent": "Justin Brazeau", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-27T15:26Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8479638, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479638/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 10, "avgToi": "12:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.230769, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 57, "goals": 10, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 4, "powerPlayPoints": 5, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.128205, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 78, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Bruins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Boston Bruins", "fr": "Bruins de Boston" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Boston", "fr": "de Boston" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "8:33", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 19, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.090909, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 11, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "7:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "12:39", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 64, "goals": 17, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 34, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 5, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.163462, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 104, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "8:24", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476483, "player": "Rickard Rakell", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 954, "PP_seconds": 372, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8485414, "player": "Ben Kindel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 676, "PP_seconds": 352, "SH_seconds": 140 }, { "player_id": 8471675, "player": "Sidney Crosby", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1030, "PP_seconds": 363, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482475, "player": "Egor Chinakhov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 798, "PP_seconds": 153, "SH_seconds": 3 }, { "player_id": 8475810, "player": "Bryan Rust", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 971, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8481582, "player": "Nick Robertson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 633, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 28 }, { "player_id": 8471215, "player": "Evgeni Malkin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 795, "PP_seconds": 372, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480980, "player": "Connor Dewar", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 603, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 131 }, { "player_id": 8481481, "player": "Blake Lizotte", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 594, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 160 }, { "player_id": 8482148, "player": "Hendrix Lapierre", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 517, "PP_seconds": 168, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481725, "player": "Elmer Soderblom", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 502, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478438, "player": "Tommy Novak", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 776, "PP_seconds": 159, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Ryan Graves", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-27T15:21Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8477845, "incumbent": "Trevor van Riemsdyk", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T17:51Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8477845, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477845/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 20, "avgToi": "17:40", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 34, "plusMinus": 20, "points": 21, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0125, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 80, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "15:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 11, "avgToi": "16:14", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 68, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 18, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.068182, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 44, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481527, "player": "Kaedan Korczak", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 833, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 170 }, { "player_id": 8483398, "player": "Declan Carlile", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 912, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 126 }, { "player_id": 8474578, "player": "Erik Karlsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1191, "PP_seconds": 340, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8479398, "player": "Samuel Girard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1162, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8471724, "player": "Kris Letang", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1004, "PP_seconds": 186, "SH_seconds": 93 }, { "player_id": 8481056, "player": "Spencer Stastney", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 778, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020098, "team": "CHI", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 1000, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1000.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Greene", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483450, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 104, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 104.0, "shTimeOnIce": 82, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Ryan Greene", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1186, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1186.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.41666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 941, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 941.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Vlasic", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481568, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 143, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 143.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alex Vlasic", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1084, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1084.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.16666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 578, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 578.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Toninato", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476952, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dominic Toninato", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 578, "timeOnIcePerGame": 578.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.53333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 963, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 963.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Kane", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8474141, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 134, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 134.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Patrick Kane", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1097, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1097.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 60.94444 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 909, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 909.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Cole", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8474013, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 135, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 135.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ian Cole", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1044, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1044.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.45454 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1306, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1306.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Byram", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481524, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 135, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 135.0, "shTimeOnIce": 99, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 99.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Bowen Byram", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1540, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1540.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 64.16666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 815, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 815.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Kantserov", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484390, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 133, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 133.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Roman Kantserov", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 948, "timeOnIcePerGame": 948.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.66666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 678, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 678.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Moore", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484197, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 99, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 99.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Oliver Moore", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 777, "timeOnIcePerGame": 777.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.89473 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 786, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 786.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Smith", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482062, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 115, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 115.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Smith", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 901, "timeOnIcePerGame": 901.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.95454 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 866, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 866.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Frondell", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485391, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 136, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 136.0, "shTimeOnIce": 84, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Anton Frondell", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1086, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1086.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.36363 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1017, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1017.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Rinzel", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483506, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 106, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 106.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sam Rinzel", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1123, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1123.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.15 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 899, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 899.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Bertuzzi", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477479, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 137, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 137.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1036, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1036.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.52631 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 800, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 800.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Greenway", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478413, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 90, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 90.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jordan Greenway", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 890, "timeOnIcePerGame": 890.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 960, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 960.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Kaiser", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482176, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 9, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.0, "shTimeOnIce": 58, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 58.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Wyatt Kaiser", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1027, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1027.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.05263 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1046, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1046.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Levshunov", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484783, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 46, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 46.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Artyom Levshunov", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 1092, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1092.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.47368 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 630, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 630.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Donato", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477987, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 107, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 107.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ryan Donato", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 737, "timeOnIcePerGame": 737.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.0625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 800, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 800.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Lardis", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484185, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 100, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 100.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nick Lardis", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 900, "timeOnIcePerGame": 900.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.25 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 737, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 737.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020078, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Teravainen", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CAR", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476882, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 108, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 108.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Teuvo Teravainen", "teamAbbrev": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 845, "timeOnIcePerGame": 845.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.25 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8483450, "player": "Ryan Greene", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1000, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8481568, "player": "Alex Vlasic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 941, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 143 }, { "player_id": 8476952, "player": "Dominic Toninato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 578, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474141, "player": "Patrick Kane", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474013, "player": "Ian Cole", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 135 }, { "player_id": 8481524, "player": "Bowen Byram", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1306, "PP_seconds": 135, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8484390, "player": "Roman Kantserov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 815, "PP_seconds": 133, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484197, "player": "Oliver Moore", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 99, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482062, "player": "Cole Smith", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8485391, "player": "Anton Frondell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 866, "PP_seconds": 136, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8483506, "player": "Sam Rinzel", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1017, "PP_seconds": 106, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477479, "player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 899, "PP_seconds": 137, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478413, "player": "Jordan Greenway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8482176, "player": "Wyatt Kaiser", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 960, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 58 }, { "player_id": 8484783, "player": "Artyom Levshunov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1046, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8477987, "player": "Ryan Donato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 630, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484185, "player": "Nick Lardis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 100, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476882, "player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 737, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15731, "PP_seconds": 1200, "SH_seconds": 960 }, "conditional_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional return role sensitivity", "return_player": { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8484144, "player": "Connor Bedard", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, "displaced_slot": { "player_id": 8483450, "player": "Ryan Greene", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1000, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 82 }, "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8484144, "player": "Connor Bedard", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1000, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8481568, "player": "Alex Vlasic", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 941, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 143 }, { "player_id": 8476952, "player": "Dominic Toninato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 578, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474141, "player": "Patrick Kane", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474013, "player": "Ian Cole", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 909, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 135 }, { "player_id": 8481524, "player": "Bowen Byram", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1306, "PP_seconds": 135, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8484390, "player": "Roman Kantserov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 815, "PP_seconds": 133, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484197, "player": "Oliver Moore", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 99, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482062, "player": "Cole Smith", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8485391, "player": "Anton Frondell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 866, "PP_seconds": 136, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8483506, "player": "Sam Rinzel", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1017, "PP_seconds": 106, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477479, "player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 899, "PP_seconds": 137, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478413, "player": "Jordan Greenway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8482176, "player": "Wyatt Kaiser", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 960, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 58 }, { "player_id": 8484783, "player": "Artyom Levshunov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1046, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 46 }, { "player_id": 8477987, "player": "Ryan Donato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 630, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484185, "player": "Nick Lardis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 100, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476882, "player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 737, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15731, "PP_seconds": 1200, "SH_seconds": 960 }, "calculation": "Transfer identified observed same-position role seconds to returning player; no added team exposure or goal/assist double count. Bedard primary top-line/PP1 role supported; exact displaced center and all other returns analyst sensitivity, not confirmed coach decisions.", "previous_current_role_samples": [] } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8477987, "name": { "default": "R. Donato" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:17", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8484197, "name": { "default": "O. Moore" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:57", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8478413, "name": { "default": "J. Greenway" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:50", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8485391, "name": { "default": "A. Frondell" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:06", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8483450, "name": { "default": "R. Greene" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:46", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8482062, "name": { "default": "C. Smith" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:01", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8476952, "name": { "default": "D. Toninato" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:38", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8477479, "name": { "default": "T. Bertuzzi" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:16", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8484185, "name": { "default": "N. Lardis" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:00", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8484390, "name": { "default": "R. Kantserov" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:48", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8476882, "name": { "default": "T. Teravainen", "cs": "T. Ter\u00e4v\u00e4inen", "fi": "T. Ter\u00e4v\u00e4inen", "sk": "T. Ter\u00e4v\u00e4inen", "sv": "T. Ter\u00e4v\u00e4inen" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:05", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8474141, "name": { "default": "P. Kane" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:17", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8483506, "name": { "default": "S. Rinzel" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:43", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8481524, "name": { "default": "B. Byram" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:40", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8474013, "name": { "default": "I. Cole" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:24", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8482176, "name": { "default": "W. Kaiser" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:07", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8484783, "name": { "default": "A. Levshunov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:12", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020078, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CHI", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "playerId": 8481568, "name": { "default": "A. Vlasic" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:04", "shifts": 24 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.4872420262664163, 2.913789868667917 ], "Primary": [ 3.5863663691262904, 2.9308275171975744 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020078/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Bedard potential return verified primary; first-line center with Kantserov/Kane and PP with Bertuzzi/Byram identified. Conditional return replaces one center role, not added player points. Nazar suspension kept separate. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8484144, "player": "Connor Bedard", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8477479, "player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8477987, "player": "Ryan Donato", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8485391, "player": "Anton Frondell", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8483450, "player": "Ryan Greene", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8478413, "player": "Jordan Greenway", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8474141, "player": "Patrick Kane", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8484390, "player": "Roman Kantserov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8484185, "player": "Nick Lardis", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8478233, "player": "Andrew Mangiapane", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8484197, "player": "Oliver Moore", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8483493, "player": "Frank Nazar", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8482062, "player": "Cole Smith", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8476882, "player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8481524, "player": "Bowen Byram", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8474013, "player": "Ian Cole", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8482807, "player": "Ethan Del Mastro", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8482176, "player": "Wyatt Kaiser", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8483466, "player": "Kevin Korchinski", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8484783, "player": "Artyom Levshunov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8483506, "player": "Sam Rinzel", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8481568, "player": "Alex Vlasic", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8481519, "player": "Spencer Knight", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" }, { "team": "CHI", "player_id": 8482821, "player": "Arvid Soderblom", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CHI/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "abbreviation": "CHI", "player": "Connor Bedard", "player_id": "5149125", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T17:31Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/4/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" }, { "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "abbreviation": "CHI", "player": "Frank Nazar", "player_id": "5080157", "injuries": [ { "status": "Suspension", "date": "2026-10-10T00:49Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/4/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" }, { "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "abbreviation": "CHI", "player": "Andrew Mangiapane", "player_id": "3149619", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T15:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/4/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" }, { "team": "Chicago Blackhawks", "abbreviation": "CHI", "player": "Ryan Ellis", "player_id": "5169", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-01-08T20:25Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/4/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8474013, 8474141, 8476882, 8476952, 8477479, 8477987, 8478233, 8478413, 8481519, 8481524, 8481568, 8482062, 8482176, 8482807, 8482821, 8483450, 8483466, 8483493, 8483506, 8484144, 8484185, 8484197, 8484390, 8484783, 8485391 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.01515, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8474013, "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "points": 17, "assists": 16, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 66, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1216.9268, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 1, "skaterFullName": "Ian Cole", "goals": 1, "evPoints": 16, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.12, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 72, "otGoals": 2, "playerId": 8474141, "teamAbbrevs": "DET", "points": 59, "assists": 38, "positionCode": "R", "shots": 175, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1078.7638, "ppGoals": 12, "ppPoints": 29, "gameWinningGoals": 6, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 9, "skaterFullName": "Patrick Kane", "goals": 21, "evPoints": 30, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.13513, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8476882, "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "points": 58, "assists": 43, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 111, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1023.939, "ppGoals": 7, "ppPoints": 24, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 2, "evGoals": 8, "skaterFullName": "Teuvo Teravainen", "goals": 15, "evPoints": 32, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8476952, 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"seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 460, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 76.66666, "shifts": 116, "shiftsPerGame": 19.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jordan Greenway", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 5217, "timeOnIcePerGame": 869.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.97413 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6186, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1237.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Byram", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481524, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 994, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 198.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 235, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 47.0, "shifts": 129, "shiftsPerGame": 25.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Bowen Byram", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 7415, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1483.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.48062 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6201, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1033.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Vlasic", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481568, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 818, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 136.33333, "shifts": 147, "shiftsPerGame": 24.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alex Vlasic", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 7032, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1172.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.83673 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4717, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 786.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Smith", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482062, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 12, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 623, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 103.83333, "shifts": 125, "shiftsPerGame": 20.83333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Smith", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 5352, "timeOnIcePerGame": 892.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.816 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6363, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1060.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Kaiser", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482176, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 53, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 493, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.16666, "shifts": 139, "shiftsPerGame": 23.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Wyatt Kaiser", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 6909, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1151.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.70503 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 896, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 896.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Del Mastro", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482807, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 5, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ethan Del Mastro", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 901, "timeOnIcePerGame": 901.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.05555 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5093, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 848.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Greene", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483450, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 147, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 24.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 518, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 86.33333, "shifts": 127, "shiftsPerGame": 21.16666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Ryan Greene", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 5758, "timeOnIcePerGame": 959.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.33858 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 669, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 669.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Korchinski", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483466, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 12, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 12.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Kevin Korchinski", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 681, "timeOnIcePerGame": 681.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.05882 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4746, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 949.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Nazar", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483493, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 516, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 103.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 389, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 77.8, "shifts": 123, "shiftsPerGame": 24.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Frank Nazar", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 5651, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1130.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.94308 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4989, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 997.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Rinzel", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483506, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 422, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 8, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.6, "shifts": 108, "shiftsPerGame": 21.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sam Rinzel", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 5419, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1083.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.17592 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3478, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 579.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Lardis", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484185, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 465, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 77.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 93, "shiftsPerGame": 15.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nick Lardis", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 3943, "timeOnIcePerGame": 657.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.39784 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3876, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 646.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Moore", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484197, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 449, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 74.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 103, "shiftsPerGame": 17.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Oliver Moore", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 4325, "timeOnIcePerGame": 720.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.99029 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5558, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 926.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Kantserov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484390, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1042, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 173.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 4, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.66666, "shifts": 121, "shiftsPerGame": 20.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Roman Kantserov", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 6604, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1100.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.57851 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6568, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1094.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Levshunov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484783, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 108, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 18.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 494, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.33333, "shifts": 133, "shiftsPerGame": 22.16666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Artyom Levshunov", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 7170, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1195.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.90977 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5175, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 862.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Frondell", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485391, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 905, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 150.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 457, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 76.16666, "shifts": 129, "shiftsPerGame": 21.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Anton Frondell", "teamAbbrevs": "CHI", "timeOnIce": 6537, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1089.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.67441 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892496", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.4872420262664163, 2.913789868667917 ], "Primary": [ 3.5863663691262904, 2.9308275171975744 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.41463, 2.853655 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8484144, "incumbent": "Connor Bedard", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T17:31Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8484144, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484144/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 44, "avgToi": "20:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.382622, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 23, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 70, "plusMinus": -36, "points": 67, "powerPlayGoals": 11, "powerPlayPoints": 29, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.117949, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 195, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 45, "avgToi": "20:52", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.470852, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 69, "goals": 30, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 50, "plusMinus": -18, "points": 75, "powerPlayGoals": 7, "powerPlayPoints": 21, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.132743, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 226, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483450, "player": "Ryan Greene", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1000, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8476952, "player": "Dominic Toninato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 578, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474141, "player": "Patrick Kane", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484390, "player": "Roman Kantserov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 815, "PP_seconds": 133, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484197, "player": "Oliver Moore", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 99, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482062, "player": "Cole Smith", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8485391, "player": "Anton Frondell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 866, "PP_seconds": 136, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8477479, "player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 899, "PP_seconds": 137, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478413, "player": "Jordan Greenway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8477987, "player": "Ryan Donato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 630, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484185, "player": "Nick Lardis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 100, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476882, "player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 737, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8483493, "incumbent": "Frank Nazar", "status": [ { "status": "Suspension", "date": "2026-10-10T00:49Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8483493, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483493/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "15:52", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.446194, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 53, "goals": 12, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": -11, "points": 26, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.131868, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 91, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 13, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 21, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 24, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Rockford IceHogs" } }, { "assists": 6, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 12, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "USA" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "International", "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 13, "teamName": { "default": "Team USA" } }, { "assists": 26, "avgToi": "18:19", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.473995, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 66, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 26, "plusMinus": -21, "points": 41, "powerPlayGoals": 4, "powerPlayPoints": 12, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.108696, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 138, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "18:50", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.458333, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 17, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.222222, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483450, "player": "Ryan Greene", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1000, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8476952, "player": "Dominic Toninato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 578, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474141, "player": "Patrick Kane", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484390, "player": "Roman Kantserov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 815, "PP_seconds": 133, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484197, "player": "Oliver Moore", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 99, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482062, "player": "Cole Smith", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8485391, "player": "Anton Frondell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 866, "PP_seconds": 136, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8477479, "player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 899, "PP_seconds": 137, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478413, "player": "Jordan Greenway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8477987, "player": "Ryan Donato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 630, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484185, "player": "Nick Lardis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 100, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476882, "player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 737, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8478233, "incumbent": "Andrew Mangiapane", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T15:40Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478233, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478233/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "13:02", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.416667, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 14, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 28, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.147368, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 95, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:13", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.375, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.083333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 12, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Capitals" }, "teamName": { "default": "Washington Capitals", "fr": "Capitals de Washington" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Washington", "fr": "de Washington" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "12:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.333333, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 52, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 36, "plusMinus": -19, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.137255, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 51, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:54", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.142857, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Bakersfield Condors" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "5:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8483450, "player": "Ryan Greene", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1000, "PP_seconds": 104, "SH_seconds": 82 }, { "player_id": 8476952, "player": "Dominic Toninato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 578, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474141, "player": "Patrick Kane", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 134, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484390, "player": "Roman Kantserov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 815, "PP_seconds": 133, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484197, "player": "Oliver Moore", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 99, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482062, "player": "Cole Smith", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 115 }, { "player_id": 8485391, "player": "Anton Frondell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 866, "PP_seconds": 136, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8477479, "player": "Tyler Bertuzzi", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 899, "PP_seconds": 137, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478413, "player": "Jordan Greenway", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8477987, "player": "Ryan Donato", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 630, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484185, "player": "Nick Lardis", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 100, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476882, "player": "Teuvo Teravainen", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 737, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 108 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Ryan Ellis", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-01-08T20:25Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks", "market": { "id": "401892496", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892496", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.432626+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.645575+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -218.0, "away_line_price": 180.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -105.0, "under_price": -115.0, "home_ml": 120.0, "away_ml": -142.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.5734521575984992, "combined": 6.401031894934333, "spread_buffer": 0.9265478424015008, "total_difference": -0.09896810506566656 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.5734521575984992, "combined": 6.401031894934333, "spread_buffer": 0.9265478424015008, "total_difference": -0.09896810506566656 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.655538851928716, "combined": 6.517193886323865, "spread_buffer": 0.844461148071284, "total_difference": 0.01719388632386476 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.655538851928716, "combined": 6.517193886323865, "spread_buffer": 0.844461148071284, "total_difference": 0.01719388632386476 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.560975, "combined": 6.268285, "spread_buffer": 0.939025, "total_difference": -0.23171500000000034 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.560975, "combined": 6.268285, "spread_buffer": 0.939025, "total_difference": -0.23171500000000034 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.560975, "combined": 6.268285, "spread_buffer": 0.939025, "total_difference": -0.23171500000000034 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.560975, "combined": 6.268285, "spread_buffer": 0.939025, "total_difference": -0.23171500000000034 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401908024", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401908024", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 3.9691358024691357, 4.006172839506172 ], "current_rates": [ 4.185185185185185, 4.117283950617284 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 162, "current_games": 162, "current_weight": 0.84375, "prior_rates": [ 4.407407407407407, 4.216049382716049 ], "current_rates": [ 4.54320987654321, 4.012345679012346 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.791208526234568, "mean_margin_error": 3.582417052469136, "mean_total_error": 1.8725405092592604, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.2789419407735076, 3.6434934765336107 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2789419407735076, 3.6434934765336107 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2789419407735076, 3.6434934765336107 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 4952, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "312bdce7842f44eff1b03313a5dabbae7462b6adf4f0fa31a249ddc18dd24fdf" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 2.086240437705544, "mean_margin_error": 3.596715499244071, "mean_total_error": 3.617779816683591, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.7978395061728394, "mean_margin_error": 3.5956790123456788, "mean_total_error": 1.8858024691358022, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "adjusted_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "conditional_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "MLB", "season_type": 3, "scenario": "base", "n": 2, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.5, "wilson95": [ 0.09453120573423074, 0.9054687942657693 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.7978395061728394, "mean_margin_error": 3.5956790123456788, "mean_total_error": 1.8858024691358022, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "id": "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1.", "resolution": "Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Apply the separately declared1run adverse allowance once; do not additionally subtract1 as a starter/bullpen player effect." }, { "id": "mlb-collision-availability", "severity": "LOW_WITH_CONDITIONAL_ESCALATION", "facts": "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence.", "resolution": "Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "If new credible material limitation emerges, reopen sporting revision; do not silently switch injury assumption after market capture." }, { "id": "mlb-normal-platoon", "severity": "LOW", "facts": "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained.", "resolution": "Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Unannounced order alone does not veto; supported material lineup change requires revised scenario." }, { "id": "mlb-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "A null effect is not0; do not certify calibrated causal robustness. Decision may use documented descriptive buffer gate only with limitation." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Classic/TUtotal near8.4, Primary near6.9; winner margins all underhalf-run.", "resolution": "Frozen four-model arithmetic retained; disagreement itself not forcedPASS for a qualifying market-specific buffer.", "decision_test": "Evaluate winner, spread and total separately; no averaging of models into fifth forecast." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Cleveland Guardians: October12 actual nine retained as conditional Game2 reference against same opposing pitcher hand. No new confirmed hitter absence in current official record. Halpin/Martinez performance-selection branch separate from injury. Tampa Bay Rays: October12 actual nine retained as conditional Game2 reference against left-handed Messick. Primary collision follow-up: Caminero stayed in game, manager says OK; DeLuca reports left shoulder/hand contact but expects no subsequent issue. No confirmed new hitter absence. Retain conditional collision and catcher/outfield platoon branches without automatic deduction.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current; home: 162 prior regular-season games, 162 current. Primary uses 4952 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Tropicana Field; listed 2026-10-14T00:00Z. Official MLB game date/time/venue and postseason series verified. Cleveland and Tampa Bay played here Oct12; same-venue second consecutive day.", "details": { "event_id": "401908024", "sport": "MLB", "away": "Cleveland Guardians", "home": "Tampa Bay Rays", "start_et": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 3, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 1, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Scheduled", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.332921+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-12&endDate=2026-10-13" ], "context": [ "Official MLB game date/time/venue and postseason series verified. Cleveland and Tampa Bay played here Oct12; same-venue second consecutive day." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "previous_game": { "id": "401908023", "date": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "away_score": 7.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20739.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "previous_game": { "id": "401908023", "date": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "away_score": 7.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20739.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Tropicana Field fixed-roof venue; no direct outside-weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 849813, "stage_label": "AL Championship Series Game 2" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Tropicana Field fixed-roof venue; no direct outside-weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Tropicana Field fixed-roof venue; no direct outside-weather adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "id": "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1.", "resolution": "Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Apply the separately declared1run adverse allowance once; do not additionally subtract1 as a starter/bullpen player effect." }, { "id": "mlb-collision-availability", "severity": "LOW_WITH_CONDITIONAL_ESCALATION", "facts": "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence.", "resolution": "Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "If new credible material limitation emerges, reopen sporting revision; do not silently switch injury assumption after market capture." }, { "id": "mlb-normal-platoon", "severity": "LOW", "facts": "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained.", "resolution": "Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "Unannounced order alone does not veto; supported material lineup change requires revised scenario." }, { "id": "mlb-reference-conversion", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable.", "resolution": "Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted.", "effect_estimate": null, "decision_test": "A null effect is not0; do not certify calibrated causal robustness. Decision may use documented descriptive buffer gate only with limitation." }, { "id": "mlb-model-disagreement", "severity": "MEDIUM", "facts": "Classic/TUtotal near8.4, Primary near6.9; winner margins all underhalf-run.", "resolution": "Frozen four-model arithmetic retained; disagreement itself not forcedPASS for a qualifying market-specific buffer.", "decision_test": "Evaluate winner, spread and total separately; no averaging of models into fifth forecast." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849820/boxscore", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/schedule?sportId=1&startDate=2026-10-12&endDate=2026-10-13", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2025&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2026&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://www.mlb.com/news/alcs-game-2-2026-storylines-to-follow", "https://www.mlb.com/news/junior-caminero-ok-after-collision-with-jonny-deluca" ], "tu": { "id": "401908024", "sport": "MLB", "identity": { "id": "401908024", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "MLB", "venue": { "id": "31", "fullName": "Tropicana Field", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "St. Petersburg", "state": "Florida" } }, "away": "5", "away_name": "Cleveland Guardians", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-mlb-v3-full-season", "formula": "Full 2026 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean; no pitcher, park or lineup coefficient", "away_score": 4.098765432098766, "home_score": 4.330246913580247, "unrounded_score": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 4.1, 4.33 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.185185185185185, "pa": 4.117283950617284, "runs_for": 678, "runs_against": 667, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json" }, "home": { "games": 162, "pf": 4.54320987654321, "pa": 4.012345679012346, "runs_for": 736, "runs_against": 650, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "file": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json" } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "Complete 162-game regular season; no postseason result substituted." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.09876543209876587, 8.098765432098766 ], "home": [ 0.3302469135802468, 8.330246913580247 ], "team_allowance": 4, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/stats?stats=season&group=hitting,pitching&season=2026&gameType=R" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\scoring\\slate-MLB.json", "sha256": "3834003badfb65b15dccdc57a46718dfc1315ce6bf7c3577857027162daf63d2" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-114.json", "sha256": "81ee5c22a559703dd5fbccffa85a20321cf0cd9f906c0ce0cfc7cce8dc8a21b1" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\MLB-139.json", "sha256": "6d6d41acc2050091079fb464411f674ca28bf96ed1685ef493bcde20767da6af" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Final decision-useful availability or its supported scoring impact unresolved; point model probabilities uncalibrated.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 1.5, "minimum_total_buffer": 1.5, "maximum_tiers": 2, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 1, "minimum_total_buffer": 1, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated joint score distribution; probabilities withheld" }, "football_review": null, "football_supplement": null, "offensive_review": [ { "sport": "MLB", "event_id": 849813, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 680757, "player": "Steven Kwan", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.6, "observed_range": [ 4, 6 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 608070, "player": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 800050, "player": "Chase DeLauter", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 666176, "player": "Jo Adell", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 663993, "player": "Nathaniel Lowe", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 683953, "player": "Travis Bazzana", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 672275, "player": "Patrick Bailey", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 690984, "player": "Petey Halpin", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.8, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 677587, "player": "Brayan Rocchio", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] } ], "empirical_slot_PA_by_stage": { "D": { "n_games": 5, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 3 ], "6": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 3 ], "7": [ 4, 4, 5, 5, 3 ], "8": [ 3, 4, 5, 4, 3 ], "9": [ 3, 3, 5, 4, 3 ] } }, "L": { "n_games": 1, "slots": { "1": [ 5 ], "2": [ 5 ], "3": [ 5 ], "4": [ 5 ], "5": [ 5 ], "6": [ 4 ], "7": [ 4 ], "8": [ 4 ], "9": [ 4 ] } }, "R": { "n_games": 6, "slots": { "1": [ 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "2": [ 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "4": [ 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "5": [ 5, 4, 4, 6, 5, 4 ], "6": [ 5, 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 ], "7": [ 5, 3, 3, 5, 5, 4 ], "8": [ 5, 3, 3, 5, 5, 4 ], "9": [ 5, 3, 3, 5, 4, 4 ] } } }, "chosen_reference_stage": "D", "conditional_team_PA": 37.800000000000004, "opportunity_branches": [ { "incumbent": "Petey Halpin", "incumbent_id": 690984, "replacement": "Angel Mart\u00ednez", "replacement_id": 682657, "slot": 8, "affected_PA": 3.8, "position_chain": "Conditional platoon/selection branch; substitution transfers same-slot PA, no extra team PA", "status": "ANALYST SENSITIVITY_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE" } ], "opponent_starter": "Freddy Peralta", "opponent_starter_hand": "R", "bullpen_hand_exposure": "Unconfirmed; do not extend starter hand to every PA", "conversion": "Verified league wOBA normalization and player-weighted baseline exposure unavailable; effects unestimated, no OPS/RBI subtraction" }, "reference_lineup": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 680757, "player": "Steven Kwan", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.6, "observed_range": [ 4, 6 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 608070, "player": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 800050, "player": "Chase DeLauter", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 666176, "player": "Jo Adell", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.4, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 663993, "player": "Nathaniel Lowe", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 683953, "player": "Travis Bazzana", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 672275, "player": "Patrick Bailey", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.2, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 690984, "player": "Petey Halpin", "position": { "code": "8", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "CF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.8, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 677587, "player": "Brayan Rocchio", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6, "observed_range": [ 3, 5 ] } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh official March25-October13 inventory; each covered-team trade reviewed both sides", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "runs", "adjustment_units": "runs", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "Primary": [ 3.2789419407735076, 3.6434934765336107 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "CONDITIONAL_REVIEW_NUMERIC_EFFECT_UNESTIMATED", "sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/114/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849820/boxscore", "https://www.mlb.com/news/alcs-game-2-2026-storylines-to-follow" ], "findings": "October12 actual nine retained as conditional Game2 reference against same opposing pitcher hand. No new confirmed hitter absence in current official record. Halpin/Martinez performance-selection branch separate from injury.", "reference_date": "2026-10-13T00:00:00Z", "comparison_player_ids": [ 542888, 595978, 608070, 656492, 663993, 666176, 668909, 670036, 671922, 672275, 676282, 676440, 677587, 677944, 680757, 681807, 681870, 682120, 682657, 682982, 683769, 683953, 690984, 694197, 800048, 800050 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 680757, "player": "Steven Kwan", "team_id": 114, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "rbi": 44, "gamesPlayed": 122, "triples": 3, "slg": ".425", "strikeOuts": 51, "hits": 140, "caughtStealing": 5, "intentionalWalks": 0, "babip": ".304", "doubles": 16, "homeRuns": 14, "sacFlies": 0, "groundIntoDoublePlay": 5, "totalBases": 204, "plateAppearances": 540, "ops": ".793", "avg": ".292", "sacBunts": 2, "stolenBases": 12, "obp": ".368", "atBats": 480, "baseOnBalls": 53, "runs": 83, "hitByPitch": 5, "singles": 107 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 608070, "player": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "team_id": 114, "team": "Cleveland Guardians", "num_teams": 1, "source": "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/stats?stats=season&group=hitting&season=2024&sportIds=1&playerPool=ALL&gameType=R&limit=10000", "rbi": 118, "gamesPlayed": 158, "triples": 2, "slg": ".537", "strikeOuts": 82, "hits": 173, "caughtStealing": 7, "intentionalWalks": 12, "babip": ".265", "doubles": 39, "homeRuns": 39, "sacFlies": 6, "groundIntoDoublePlay": 9, "totalBases": 333, "plateAppearances": 682, "ops": ".872", "avg": ".279", "sacBunts": 0, "stolenBases": 41, "obp": ".335", "atBats": 620, "baseOnBalls": 54, "runs": 114, "hitByPitch": 1, "singles": 93 }, { "season": 2024, "stage": "regular", "player_id": 663993, "player": "Nathaniel Lowe", "team_id": 140, "team": "Texas Rangers", "num_teams": 1, "source": 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"homeRuns": 3, "strikeOuts": 36, "baseOnBalls": 55, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 113, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".306", "atBats": 369, "obp": ".397", "slg": ".390", "ops": ".787", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 3, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 1773, "plateAppearances": 432, "totalBases": 144, "rbi": 23, "leftOnBase": 115, "sacBunts": 3, "sacFlies": 2, "babip": ".331", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.81", "catchersInterference": 1, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "123.00" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 680757, "fullName": "Steven Kwan", "link": "/api/v1/people/680757", "firstName": "Steven", "lastName": "Kwan" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "7", "name": 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"boxscoreName": "Bibee", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2021, "pronunciation": "BUY-bee", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2023-04-26", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tanner Bibee", "nameSlug": "tanner-bibee-676440", "firstLastName": "Tanner Bibee", "lastFirstName": "Bibee, Tanner", "lastInitName": "Bibee, T", "initLastName": "T Bibee", "fullFMLName": "Tanner Hayes Bibee", "fullLFMName": "Bibee, Tanner Hayes", "strikeZoneTop": 3.299, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.665 }, { "id": 682120, "fullName": "Tim Herrin", "link": "/api/v1/people/682120", "firstName": "Tim", "lastName": "Herrin", "primaryNumber": "29", "birthDate": "1996-10-08", "currentAge": 30, "birthCity": "Terre Haute", "birthStateProvince": "IN", "birthCountry": "USA", "height": "6' 6\"", "weight": 230, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "1", "name": "Pitcher", "type": "Pitcher", "abbreviation": "P" }, "useName": "Tim", "useLastName": "Herrin", "middleName": "Edward", "boxscoreName": "Herrin", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": false, "draftYear": 2018, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2023-04-02", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "nameFirstLast": "Tim Herrin", "nameSlug": "tim-herrin-682120", "firstLastName": "Tim Herrin", "lastFirstName": "Herrin, Tim", "lastInitName": "Herrin, T", "initLastName": "T Herrin", "fullFMLName": "Tim Edward Herrin", "fullLFMName": "Herrin, Tim Edward", "strikeZoneTop": 3.478, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.755 }, { "id": 683953, "fullName": "Travis Bazzana", "link": "/api/v1/people/683953", "firstName": "Travis", "lastName": "Bazzana", "primaryNumber": "37", "birthDate": "2002-08-28", "currentAge": 24, "birthCity": "Hornsby", "birthStateProvince": "NSW", "birthCountry": "Australia", "height": "5' 11\"", "weight": 199, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "useName": "Travis", "useLastName": "Bazzana", "middleName": "William", "boxscoreName": "Bazzana", "gender": "M", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "draftYear": 2024, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 86, "groundOuts": 34, "airOuts": 44, "doubles": 3, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 2, "strikeOuts": 41, "baseOnBalls": 17, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 27, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".185", "atBats": 146, "obp": ".279", "slg": ".247", "ops": ".526", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 0, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 691, "plateAppearances": 165, "totalBases": 36, "rbi": 11, "leftOnBase": 77, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 0, "babip": ".243", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.77", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "73.00" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 683953, "fullName": "Travis Bazzana", "link": "/api/v1/people/683953", "firstName": "Travis", "lastName": "Bazzana" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 113, "groundOuts": 72, "airOuts": 87, "doubles": 19, "triples": 3, "homeRuns": 13, "strikeOuts": 66, "baseOnBalls": 39, "intentionalWalks": 1, "hits": 83, "hitByPitch": 5, "avg": ".274", "atBats": 303, "obp": ".361", "slg": ".485", "ops": ".846", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 4, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 1394, "plateAppearances": 352, "totalBases": 147, "rbi": 46, "leftOnBase": 116, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 5, "babip": ".306", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.83", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "23.31" }, "team": { "id": 114, "name": "Cleveland Guardians", "link": "/api/v1/teams/114" }, "player": { "id": 683953, "fullName": "Travis Bazzana", "link": "/api/v1/people/683953", "firstName": "Travis", "lastName": "Bazzana" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2026-04-28", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Travis Bazzana", "nameSlug": "travis-bazzana-683953", "firstLastName": "Travis Bazzana", "lastFirstName": "Bazzana, Travis", "lastInitName": "Bazzana, T", "initLastName": "T Bazzana", "fullFMLName": "Travis Bazzana", "fullLFMName": "Bazzana, Travis ", "strikeZoneTop": 3.179, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.604 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "NINE_IDENTIFIED_SLOTS_CONDITIONAL_PA_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908024", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "Primary": [ 3.2789419407735076, 3.6434934765336107 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ] } }, { "sport": "MLB", "event_id": 849813, "team": "Tampa Bay Rays", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "ordered_starters": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 650490, "player": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 666018, "player": "Jonathan Aranda", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 691406, "player": "Junior Caminero", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 668723, "player": "Ryan Vilade", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 683748, "player": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 676356, "player": "Jonny DeLuca", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 810938, "player": "Ben Williamson", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 670764, "player": "Taylor Walls", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 663743, "player": "Nick Fortes", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "empirical_slot_PA_by_stage": { "D": { "n_games": 3, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 5, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "5": [ 4, 4, 4 ], "6": [ 3, 4, 4 ], "7": [ 3, 4, 3 ], "8": [ 3, 4, 3 ], "9": [ 3, 4, 3 ] } }, "L": { "n_games": 1, "slots": { "1": [ 5 ], "2": [ 4 ], "3": [ 4 ], "4": [ 4 ], "5": [ 4 ], "6": [ 4 ], "7": [ 4 ], "8": [ 4 ], "9": [ 4 ] } }, "R": { "n_games": 8, "slots": { "1": [ 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "2": [ 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "3": [ 4, 3, 5, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "4": [ 4, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 6, 4 ], "5": [ 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4 ], "6": [ 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4 ], "7": [ 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 4, 5, 4 ], "8": [ 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 4 ], "9": [ 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 5, 3 ] } } }, "chosen_reference_stage": "D", "conditional_team_PA": 34.333333333333336, "opportunity_branches": [ { "incumbent": "Ryan Vilade", "incumbent_id": 668723, "replacement": "Chandler Simpson", "replacement_id": 802415, "slot": 4, "affected_PA": 4.0, "position_chain": "Conditional platoon/selection branch; substitution transfers same-slot PA, no extra team PA", "status": "ANALYST SENSITIVITY_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE" }, { "incumbent": "Junior Caminero", "incumbent_id": 691406, "replacement": "Richie Palacios", "replacement_id": 680700, "slot": 3, "affected_PA": 4.0, "position_chain": "Caminero3B out conditional: Williamson2B->3B; Palacios enters2B. Starting-slot PA transfers remain matched; actual order unannounced.", "status": "ANALYST SENSITIVITY_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE" }, { "incumbent": "Nick Fortes", "incumbent_id": 663743, "replacement": "Liam Hicks", "replacement_id": 689414, "slot": 9, "affected_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "position_chain": "Catcher platoon branch versus LHP; same batting-slot opportunity, no fresh injury deduction", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_COACH_CONFIRMED" } ], "opponent_starter": "Parker Messick", "opponent_starter_hand": "L", "bullpen_hand_exposure": "Unconfirmed; do not extend starter hand to every PA", "conversion": "Verified league wOBA normalization and player-weighted baseline exposure unavailable; effects unestimated, no OPS/RBI subtraction" }, "reference_lineup": [ { "slot": 1, "player_id": 650490, "player": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 2, "player_id": 666018, "player": "Jonathan Aranda", "position": { "code": "3", "name": "First Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "1B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.333333333333333, "observed_range": [ 4, 5 ] }, { "slot": 3, "player_id": 691406, "player": "Junior Caminero", "position": { "code": "5", "name": "Third Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "3B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 4, "player_id": 668723, "player": "Ryan Vilade", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 5, "player_id": 683748, "player": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 4.0, "observed_range": [ 4, 4 ] }, { "slot": 6, "player_id": 676356, "player": "Jonny DeLuca", "position": { "code": "7", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "LF" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.6666666666666665, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 7, "player_id": 810938, "player": "Ben Williamson", "position": { "code": "4", "name": "Second Base", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "2B" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 8, "player_id": 670764, "player": "Taylor Walls", "position": { "code": "6", "name": "Shortstop", "type": "Infielder", "abbreviation": "SS" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] }, { "slot": 9, "player_id": 663743, "player": "Nick Fortes", "position": { "code": "2", "name": "Catcher", "type": "Catcher", "abbreviation": "C" }, "conditional_slot_PA": 3.3333333333333335, "observed_range": [ 3, 4 ] } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh official March25-October13 inventory; each covered-team trade reviewed both sides", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "runs", "adjustment_units": "runs", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "Primary": [ 3.2789419407735076, 3.6434934765336107 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "CONDITIONAL_REVIEW_NUMERIC_EFFECT_UNESTIMATED", "sources": [ "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/teams/139/roster/active", "https://statsapi.mlb.com/api/v1/game/849820/boxscore", "https://www.mlb.com/news/alcs-game-2-2026-storylines-to-follow", "https://www.mlb.com/news/junior-caminero-ok-after-collision-with-jonny-deluca" ], "findings": "October12 actual nine retained as conditional Game2 reference against left-handed Messick. Primary collision follow-up: Caminero stayed in game, manager says OK; DeLuca reports left shoulder/hand contact but expects no subsequent issue. No confirmed new hitter absence. 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"isVerified": true, "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 39, "groundOuts": 12, "airOuts": 20, "doubles": 3, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 2, "strikeOuts": 9, "baseOnBalls": 5, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 20, "hitByPitch": 0, "avg": ".333", "atBats": 60, "obp": ".385", "slg": ".483", "ops": ".868", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 1, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 218, "plateAppearances": 66, "totalBases": 29, "rbi": 5, "leftOnBase": 25, "sacBunts": 1, "sacFlies": 0, "babip": ".367", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.60", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "30.00" }, "team": { "id": 139, "name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "link": "/api/v1/teams/139" }, "player": { "id": 683748, "fullName": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "link": "/api/v1/people/683748", "firstName": "Victor", "lastName": "Mesa" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 68, "groundOuts": 29, "airOuts": 63, "doubles": 5, "triples": 3, "homeRuns": 12, "strikeOuts": 44, "baseOnBalls": 18, "intentionalWalks": 0, "hits": 41, "hitByPitch": 1, "avg": ".234", "atBats": 175, "obp": ".308", "slg": ".503", "ops": ".811", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 1, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 723, "plateAppearances": 196, "totalBases": 88, "rbi": 29, "leftOnBase": 72, "sacBunts": 1, "sacFlies": 1, "babip": ".242", "groundOutsToAirouts": "0.46", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "14.58" }, "team": { "id": 139, "name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "link": "/api/v1/teams/139" }, "player": { "id": 683748, "fullName": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "link": "/api/v1/people/683748", "firstName": "Victor", "lastName": "Mesa" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "9", "name": "Outfielder", "type": "Outfielder", "abbreviation": "RF" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2025-05-26", "batSide": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "L", "description": "Left" }, "nameFirstLast": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "nameTitle": "Jr.", "nameSuffix": "Jr.", "nameSlug": "victor-mesa-jr-683748", "firstLastName": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "lastFirstName": "Mesa Jr., Victor", "lastInitName": "Mesa Jr., V", "initLastName": "V Mesa Jr.", "fullFMLName": "Victor Mesa Jr.", "fullLFMName": "Mesa Jr., Victor", "strikeZoneTop": 3.16, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.59 }, { "id": 650490, "fullName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "link": "/api/v1/people/650490", "firstName": "Yandy", "lastName": "D\u00edaz", "primaryNumber": "2", "birthDate": "1991-08-08", "currentAge": 35, "birthCity": "Sagua la Grande", "birthCountry": "Cuba", "height": "6' 0\"", "weight": 235, "active": true, "primaryPosition": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" }, "useName": "Yandy", "useLastName": "D\u00edaz", "boxscoreName": "D\u00edaz, Y", "nickName": "Aranita Diaz", "gender": "M", "nameMatrilineal": "Fernandez", "isPlayer": true, "isVerified": true, "pronunciation": "YAHN-dee", "stats": [ { "type": { "displayName": "statSplits" }, "group": { "displayName": "hitting" }, "exemptions": [], "splits": [ { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 85, "groundOuts": 55, "airOuts": 54, "doubles": 7, "triples": 0, "homeRuns": 8, "strikeOuts": 24, "baseOnBalls": 20, "intentionalWalks": 4, "hits": 47, "hitByPitch": 2, "avg": ".264", "atBats": 178, "obp": ".342", "slg": ".438", "ops": ".780", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 4, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 746, "plateAppearances": 202, "totalBases": 78, "rbi": 27, "leftOnBase": 55, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 2, "babip": ".264", "groundOutsToAirouts": "1.02", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "22.25" }, "team": { "id": 139, "name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "link": "/api/v1/teams/139" }, "player": { "id": 650490, "fullName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "link": "/api/v1/people/650490", "firstName": "Yandy", "lastName": "D\u00edaz" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vl", "description": "vs Left", "sortOrder": 73 }, "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" } }, { "season": "2026", "stat": { "gamesPlayed": 144, "groundOuts": 140, "airOuts": 93, "doubles": 19, "triples": 1, "homeRuns": 14, "strikeOuts": 74, "baseOnBalls": 36, "intentionalWalks": 2, "hits": 133, "hitByPitch": 8, "avg": ".305", "atBats": 436, "obp": ".366", "slg": ".450", "ops": ".816", "groundIntoDoublePlay": 11, "groundIntoTriplePlay": 0, "numberOfPitches": 1800, "plateAppearances": 484, "totalBases": 196, "rbi": 58, "leftOnBase": 140, "sacBunts": 0, "sacFlies": 4, "babip": ".338", "groundOutsToAirouts": "1.51", "catchersInterference": 0, "atBatsPerHomeRun": "31.14" }, "team": { "id": 139, "name": "Tampa Bay Rays", "link": "/api/v1/teams/139" }, "player": { "id": 650490, "fullName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "link": "/api/v1/people/650490", "firstName": "Yandy", "lastName": "D\u00edaz" }, "league": { "id": 103, "name": "American League", "link": "/api/v1/league/103" }, "sport": { "id": 1, "link": "/api/v1/sports/1", "name": "Major League Baseball", "abbreviation": "MLB" }, "gameType": "R", "split": { "code": "vr", "description": "vs Right", "sortOrder": 74 }, "position": { "code": "10", "name": "Designated Hitter", "type": "Hitter", "abbreviation": "DH" } } ] } ], "mlbDebutDate": "2017-04-03", "batSide": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "pitchHand": { "code": "R", "description": "Right" }, "nameFirstLast": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "nameSlug": "yandy-diaz-650490", "firstLastName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "lastFirstName": "D\u00edaz, Yandy", "lastInitName": "D\u00edaz, Y", "initLastName": "Y D\u00edaz", "fullFMLName": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "fullLFMName": "D\u00edaz, Yandy", "strikeZoneTop": 3.228, "strikeZoneBottom": 1.629 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "NINE_IDENTIFIED_SLOTS_CONDITIONAL_PA_REVIEWED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401908024", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.9978009259259255, 4.410956790123456 ], "Primary": [ 3.2789419407735076, 3.6434934765336107 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 4.098765432098766, 4.330246913580247 ] } } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays", "market": { "id": "401908024", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/baseball/mlb/summary?event=401908024", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.450653+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.668361+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 163.0, "away_line_price": -199.0, "total": 7.0, "under_line": 7.0, "over_price": 102.0, "under_price": -122.0, "home_ml": -137.0, "away_ml": 114.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 7.0, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.4131558641975306, "combined": 8.408757716049381, "spread_buffer": -1.0868441358024694, "total_difference": 1.4087577160493812 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.4131558641975306, "combined": 8.408757716049381, "spread_buffer": -1.0868441358024694, "total_difference": 1.4087577160493812 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.0868441358024694, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.08684413580246941, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -199.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_home_margin": 1.4131558641975306, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion" ], "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "maximum_tier": null, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration.", "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.", "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.", "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.", "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.4087577160493812, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.40875771604938116, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 102.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.408757716049381, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 3, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "maximum_tier": null, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.", "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.", "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.", "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.", "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted.", "Classic/TUtotal near8.4, Primary near6.9; winner margins all underhalf-run. Frozen four-model arithmetic retained; disagreement itself not forcedPASS for a qualifying market-specific buffer." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.364551535760103, "combined": 6.922435417307119, "spread_buffer": -1.135448464239897, "total_difference": -0.07756458269288125 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.364551535760103, "combined": 6.922435417307119, "spread_buffer": -1.135448464239897, "total_difference": -0.07756458269288125 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.135448464239897, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.13544846423989698, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -199.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration.", "stressed_home_margin": 1.364551535760103, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion" ], "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "maximum_tier": null, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration.", "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.", "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.", "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.", "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 0.07756458269288125, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.9224354173071188, "same_side_after_one_run": false, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.", "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Under", "line": 7.0, "price": -122.0, "reason": "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.922435417307119, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 3, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "event_specific_workload_test_pass": false, "maximum_tier": null, "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Classic/Primary is a provisional engine and is not an authorized live publication configuration. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.", "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.", "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.", "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.", "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted.", "Classic/TUtotal near8.4, Primary near6.9; winner margins all underhalf-run. Frozen four-model arithmetic retained; disagreement itself not forcedPASS for a qualifying market-specific buffer." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.268518518518519, "total_difference": 1.4290123456790127 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.268518518518519, "total_difference": 1.4290123456790127 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.268518518518519, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.26851851851851904, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.", "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -199.0, "reason": "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Conservative ON also disallows unresolved medium availability risk.", "stressed_home_margin": 1.231481481481481, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion" ], "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "maximum_tier": null, "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Conservative ON also disallows unresolved medium availability risk.", "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.", "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.", "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.", "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5, "base_buffer": 1.4290123456790127, "base_floor_met": false, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.4290123456790127, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": false, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.", "final_state": "NO_EDGE", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 102.0, "reason": "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 3, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "maximum_tier": null, "state": "NO_EDGE", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Base buffer below the frozen configuration floor. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.", "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.", "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.", "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.", "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted.", "Classic/TUtotal near8.4, Primary near6.9; winner margins all underhalf-run. Frozen four-model arithmetic retained; disagreement itself not forcedPASS for a qualifying market-specific buffer." ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.268518518518519, "total_difference": 1.4290123456790127 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.23148148148148096, "combined": 8.429012345679013, "spread_buffer": -1.268518518518519, "total_difference": 1.4290123456790127 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.268518518518519, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.26851851851851904, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.", "final_state": "TIER ELIGIBLE", "production_decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY", "promotion_allowed": true, "selection": "Cleveland Guardians", "line": 1.5, "price": -199.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Two frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload and reference conversion) require downgrade; Pick of the Day and Bonus require at most one medium, so optional Free Pick only. This is descriptive gate eligibility, not demonstrated positive expected value or calibrated probability.", "stressed_home_margin": 1.231481481481481, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 2, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion" ], "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "maximum_tier": "Free Pick", "state": "TIER ELIGIBLE", "decision": "ELIGIBLE / FREE PICK ONLY", "reasons": [ "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Two frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload and reference conversion) require downgrade; Pick of the Day and Bonus require at most one medium, so optional Free Pick only. This is descriptive gate eligibility, not demonstrated positive expected value or calibrated probability.", "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.", "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.", "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.", "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted." ] }, "total": { "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0, "base_buffer": 1.4290123456790127, "base_floor_met": true, "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0, "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.4290123456790127, "same_side_after_one_run": true, "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true, "numeric_only_gate_pass": true, "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null, "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null, "combined_stress_status": "The frozen one-run test represents the reviewed starter/bullpen case and is applied once. More severe joint tail is unestimated and not established; it is disclosed, not an added veto or certified upper bound.", "final_state": "LEAN", "production_decision": "PASS", "promotion_allowed": false, "selection": "Over", "line": 7.0, "price": 102.0, "reason": "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.", "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013, "unresolved_high_risks": 0, "unresolved_medium_risks": 3, "risk_ids": [ "mlb-starter-bullpen-duration", "mlb-reference-conversion", "mlb-model-disagreement" ], "event_specific_workload_test_pass": true, "maximum_tier": null, "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS", "reasons": [ "Frozen minimum buffer, declared one-run workload adverse test and price filter pass. Three frozen unresolved MEDIUM risks (starter/bullpen workload, reference conversion, and total-direction model disagreement) make this total ineligible under standards section5.", "Messick twoALDSstarts total6.2IP; CLE used five relievers for one inning each Oct12, none above17pitches; Smith six appearances in10days. TB Peralta current posttrade record separate from NYM and relievers usedGame1. Actual staff pitch counts and last appearances captured. No primary report establishes essential reliever unavailable. Workload remains genuine context, not automaticallyHIGH or a numerical expected-score correction.", "Caminero remained in game and manager saysOK; DeLuca expects shoulder/hand contact not to cause absence. Primary follow-up supports same-nine branch; alternate third-base/outfield chain retained. Not a confirmed missing-player event.", "CLE right-handed opposing starter, TB left-handed opposing starter; referenceGame1samehand. Halpin/Martinez, Vilade/Simpson, Fortes/Hicks alternatives retained. Reference already includes mix of roster/platoon conditions; no repeated fullhealthyplayer deduction.", "Player-weighted exposure inside fullseason aggregates and validated current run-valued conversion unavailable. Base engine retained, adjusted estimate null. Numeric replacement improvement not asserted.", "Classic/TUtotal near8.4, Primary near6.9; winner margins all underhalf-run. Frozen four-model arithmetic retained; disagreement itself not forcedPASS for a qualifying market-specific buffer." ] } }, "publication_status": "Cleveland +1.5 (-199) / Free Pick", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401908621", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401908621", "date": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "2559", "fullName": "Paycom Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Oklahoma City", "state": "OK" } }, "away": "11", "away_name": "Indiana Pacers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "25", "home_name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 108.65243902439025, 121.21951219512195 ], "adjusted_score": [ 108.65243902439025, 121.21951219512195 ], "conditional_score": [ 108.65243902439025, 121.21951219512195 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 112.42682926829268, 120.41463414634147 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 119.02439024390245, 107.8780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.15244, 130.15244 ], "home": [ 99.71951250000001, 139.7195125 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 108.64022039575111, 120.74902875453085 ], "adjusted_score": [ 108.64022039575111, 120.74902875453085 ], "conditional_score": [ 108.64022039575111, 120.74902875453085 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2792, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "908b352170b64d5da6773996ab99d15522ad83b83d62bcef1698642fdf619d5b" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.695368619799016, "mean_margin_error": 14.866714897441717, "mean_total_error": 10.858078193211853, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.15244, 130.15244 ], "home": [ 99.71951250000001, 139.7195125 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.42683, "pa": 120.414635 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.02439, "pa": 107.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.15244, 130.15244 ], "home": [ 99.71951250000001, 139.7195125 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "adjusted_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "conditional_score": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 112.42683, "pa": 120.414635 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 119.02439, "pa": 107.87805 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 90.15244, 130.15244 ], "home": [ 99.71951250000001, 139.7195125 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Oklahoma City Thunder: October12 bench-only Atlanta trip is a distinct reference; regulars did not travel. October7 regular-led alternate retained for home return. Holmgren quadriceps, Topic back, Sorber knee remain separate unresolved medical issues. Do not forecast October12 40-minute reserve workload as a coach commitment. Indiana Pacers: Haliburton full Monday practice but game-day decision. Latest Nembhard-led reference excludes him and McConnell; preserve prior October7 Haliburton actual branch for minutes/shots/creation redistribution without a PPG deduction.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2792 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Paycom Center; listed 2026-10-14T00:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs IND 8:00 pm ET Paycom Center Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only.", "details": { "event_id": "401908621", "sport": "NBA", "away": "Indiana Pacers", "home": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "start_et": "2026-10-13T20:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T00:00Z", "venue": { "id": "2559", "fullName": "Paycom Center", "address": { "city": "Oklahoma City", "state": "OK" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 8:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 8:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.365786+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612760/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs IND 8:00 pm ET Paycom Center Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "previous_game": { "id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "2183", "fullName": "Gainbridge Fieldhouse", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Indianapolis", "state": "IN" } }, "away": "1", "away_name": "Atlanta Hawks", "away_score": 119.0, "home": "11", "home_name": "Indiana Pacers", "home_score": 117.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "previous_game": { "id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1827", "fullName": "State Farm Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Atlanta", "state": "GA" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "away_score": 110.0, "home": "1", "home_name": "Atlanta Hawks", "home_score": 113.0, "day": 20738.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898389", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914123", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/11/roster?season=2027", 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"5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS": 0.3, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 22.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7272727272727273, "reference_TS": 0.7331378299120235, "conditional_FGA": 11.0, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [ "Isaiah Hartenstein", "Chet Holmgren", "Thomas Sorber", "Nikola Topic", "Jaylin Williams" ], "return_rule": "No current role sample => return opportunity unestimated; do not invent minutes." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "8-23", "TO": "2", "3PT": "2-6", "AST": "2", "PTS": "20", "MIN": "40", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "FT": "9-12", "FG": "4-9", "TO": "5", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "6", "PTS": "17", "MIN": "33", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "6-15", "TO": "1", "3PT": "4-10", "AST": "7", "PTS": "16", "MIN": "37", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "FT": "1-2", "FG": "5-13", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "1", "PTS": "11", "MIN": "35", "OREB": "4" }, { "event_id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "FT": "2-3", "FG": "9-16", "TO": "5", "3PT": "6-9", "AST": "5", "PTS": "26", "MIN": "38", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "17", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-2", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "5", "MIN": "10", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "FT": "1-1", "FG": "2-5", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "5", "MIN": "11", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898402", "date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "2-5", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "5", "PTS": "6", "MIN": "19", "OREB": "2" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh rendered October Trade filter empty; September both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 108.65243902439025, 121.21951219512195 ], "Primary": [ 108.64022039575111, 120.74902875453085 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612760/thunder", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898402", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions" ], "findings": "October12 bench-only Atlanta trip is a distinct reference; regulars did not travel. October7 regular-led alternate retained for home return. Holmgren quadriceps, Topic back, Sorber knee remain separate unresolved medical issues. Do not forecast October12 40-minute reserve workload as a coach commitment.", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex Caruso", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:35Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:17Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:28Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:43Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:32Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4685802", "player": "Robert McCray V", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4900671", "player": "Ajay Mitchell", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:30Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5061603", "player": "Thomas Sorber", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:47Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "5159925", "player": "Nikola Topic", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:45Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:25Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:19Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4432823", "player": "Jaylin Williams", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:40Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "25", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:38Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/25/roster?season=2027" } ], "reference_date": "2026-10-12T23:00Z", "comparison_player_ids": [ "2991350", "3133626", "4222252", "4277923", "4278073", "4432823", "4433255", "4593803", "4683692", "4683778", "4684208", "4685802", "4897155", "4900671", "5061603", "5105800", "5106270", "5109790", "5116468", "5159925", "5174983", "5241364" ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4684208/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "40", "gamesStarted": "0", "avgMinutes": "8.7", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.7-1.8", "fieldGoalPct": "38.0", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.2-0.6", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "29.2", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "0.2-0.3", "freeThrowPct": "70.0", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.5", "avgAssists": "0.6", "avgTurnovers": "0.3", "avgPoints": "1.7" }, { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4684208/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "27-71", "fieldGoalPct": "38.0", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "7-24", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "29.2", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "7-10", "freeThrowPct": "70.0", "offensiveRebounds": "19", "assists": "22", "turnovers": "10", "points": "68" }, { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4684208/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.2", "scoringEfficiency": "0.958", "shootingEfficiency": "0.43" }, { "player_id": "2991350", "player": "Alex 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"threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "115-298", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "38.6", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "540-614", "freeThrowPct": "87.9", "offensiveRebounds": "38", "assists": "448", "turnovers": "151", "points": "2117" }, { "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4278073/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.7", "scoringEfficiency": "1.500", "shootingEfficiency": "0.57" }, { "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4278073/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "3.0", "scoringEfficiency": "1.603", "shootingEfficiency": "0.60" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4278073", "player": "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "FT": "4-4", "FG": "5-5", "TO": "0", "3PT": "3-3", "AST": "5", "PTS": "17", "MIN": "18", "OREB": "0" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 40.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 40.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.07692307692307693, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.391304347826087, "reference_TS": 0.4187604690117253, "conditional_FGA": 23.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 17.0 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 37.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 37.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.2692307692307692, "reference_AST": 7.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 15.0, "conditional_3PA": 10.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "reference_minutes": 35.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 35.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.038461538461538464, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.38461538461538464, "reference_TS": 0.39625360230547546, "conditional_FGA": 13.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 10.0 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 38.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 38.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.19230769230769232, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.7505773672055427, "conditional_FGA": 16.0, "conditional_3PA": 9.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.45955882352941174, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.19230769230769232, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.5102040816326531, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4222252", "incumbent": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:28Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4222252/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "57", "gamesStarted": "53", "avgMinutes": "27.9", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "4.9-8.4", "fieldGoalPct": "58.1", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.0-0.3", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "0.0", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "1.4-2.1", 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"regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4222252/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "279-480", "fieldGoalPct": "58.1", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0-19", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "0.0", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "79-117", "freeThrowPct": "67.5", "offensiveRebounds": "163", "assists": "219", "turnovers": "96", "points": "637" }, { "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4222252/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "184-296", "fieldGoalPct": "62.2", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0-7", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "0.0", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "64-105", "freeThrowPct": "61.0", "offensiveRebounds": "149", "assists": "166", "turnovers": "82", "points": "432" }, { "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4222252/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.3", "scoringEfficiency": "1.327", "shootingEfficiency": "0.58" }, { "player_id": "4222252", "player": "Isaiah Hartenstein", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4222252/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.0", "scoringEfficiency": "1.459", "shootingEfficiency": "0.62" } ], "current_form_separate": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_minutes": 33.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 33.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.23076923076923078, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4444444444444444, "reference_TS": 0.5952380952380952, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 12.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.25, "reference_TS": 1.25, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4433255", "incumbent": "Chet Holmgren", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:43Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433255/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "32", "gamesStarted": "32", "avgMinutes": "27.4", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "5.2-10.7", "fieldGoalPct": "49.0", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.4-3.6", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "37.9", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "3.2-4.2", "freeThrowPct": "75.4", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "1.5", "avgAssists": "2.0", "avgTurnovers": "1.8", "avgPoints": "15.0" }, { "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433255/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "69", "gamesStarted": "69", "avgMinutes": "28.9", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "6.3-11.3", "fieldGoalPct": "55.7", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.3-3.5", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "36.2", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "3.3-4.1", "freeThrowPct": "79.2", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "1.9", "avgAssists": "1.7", "avgTurnovers": "1.6", "avgPoints": "17.1" }, { "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433255/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "167-341", "fieldGoalPct": "49.0", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "44-116", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "37.9", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "101-134", "freeThrowPct": "75.4", "offensiveRebounds": "48", "assists": "63", "turnovers": "56", "points": "479" }, { "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433255/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "434-779", "fieldGoalPct": "55.7", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "88-243", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "36.2", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "225-284", "freeThrowPct": "79.2", "offensiveRebounds": "130", "assists": "115", "turnovers": "107", "points": "1181" }, { "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433255/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.1", "scoringEfficiency": "1.405", "shootingEfficiency": "0.55" }, { "player_id": "4433255", "player": "Chet Holmgren", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433255/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.1", "scoringEfficiency": "1.516", "shootingEfficiency": "0.61" } ], "current_form_separate": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "5174983", "player": "Aday Mara", "reference_minutes": 33.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 33.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.23076923076923078, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4444444444444444, "reference_TS": 0.5952380952380952, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 12.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "5109790", "player": "Christoph Tilly", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.25, "reference_TS": 1.25, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4683778", "incumbent": "Jared McCain", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:32Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "20", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4683778/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "23", "gamesStarted": "8", "avgMinutes": "25.7", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "5.5-11.9", "fieldGoalPct": "46.0", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.2-5.8", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "38.3", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "2.1-2.4", "freeThrowPct": 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"https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "4-11", "TO": "1", "3PT": "3-6", "AST": "2", "PTS": "11", "MIN": "17", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898389", "date": "2026-10-07T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4683778", "player": "Jared McCain", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898389", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "4-10", "TO": "1", "3PT": "4-8", "AST": "5", "PTS": "12", "MIN": "16", "OREB": "0" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 40.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 40.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.07692307692307693, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.391304347826087, "reference_TS": 0.4187604690117253, "conditional_FGA": 23.0, 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No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "5159925", "incumbent": "Nikola Topic", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:45Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "5159925", "player": "Nikola Topic", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5159925/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "10", "gamesStarted": "2", "avgMinutes": "16.0", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.2-5.1", "fieldGoalPct": "43.1", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.6-1.5", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "40.0", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "0.2-0.5", "freeThrowPct": "40.0", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.7", "avgAssists": "4.4", "avgTurnovers": "2.5", "avgPoints": "5.2" }, { "player_id": "5159925", "player": "Nikola Topic", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5159925/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "22-51", "fieldGoalPct": "43.1", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "6-15", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "40.0", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "2-5", "freeThrowPct": "40.0", "offensiveRebounds": "7", "assists": "44", "turnovers": "25", "points": "52" }, { "player_id": "5159925", "player": "Nikola Topic", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/5159925/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.8", "scoringEfficiency": "1.020", "shootingEfficiency": "0.49" } ], "current_form_separate": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 40.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 40.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.07692307692307693, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.391304347826087, "reference_TS": 0.4187604690117253, "conditional_FGA": 23.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 17.0 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 37.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 37.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.2692307692307692, "reference_AST": 7.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 15.0, "conditional_3PA": 10.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "reference_minutes": 35.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 35.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.038461538461538464, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.38461538461538464, "reference_TS": 0.39625360230547546, "conditional_FGA": 13.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 10.0 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 38.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 38.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.19230769230769232, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.7505773672055427, "conditional_FGA": 16.0, "conditional_3PA": 9.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.45955882352941174, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.19230769230769232, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.5102040816326531, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4683692", "incumbent": "Cason Wallace", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:25Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4683692/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "68", "gamesStarted": "43", "avgMinutes": "27.6", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "3.4-7.2", "fieldGoalPct": "47.4", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.1-3.1", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "35.6", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "0.4-0.5", "freeThrowPct": "81.1", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "1.0", "avgAssists": "2.5", "avgTurnovers": "0.9", "avgPoints": "8.4" }, { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4683692/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "77", "gamesStarted": "58", "avgMinutes": "26.6", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "3.3-7.6", "fieldGoalPct": "43.2", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.3-3.7", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "35.1", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "0.7-0.9", "freeThrowPct": "80.9", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.8", "avgAssists": "2.6", "avgTurnovers": "0.9", "avgPoints": "8.6" }, { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4683692/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "232-489", "fieldGoalPct": "47.4", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "74-208", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "35.6", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "30-37", "freeThrowPct": "81.1", "offensiveRebounds": "71", "assists": "173", "turnovers": "59", "points": "568" }, { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4683692/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "252-584", "fieldGoalPct": "43.2", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "101-288", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "35.1", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "55-68", "freeThrowPct": "80.9", "offensiveRebounds": "63", "assists": "200", "turnovers": "73", "points": "660" }, { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4683692/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.9", "scoringEfficiency": "1.162", "shootingEfficiency": "0.55" }, { "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4683692/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.7", "scoringEfficiency": "1.130", "shootingEfficiency": "0.52" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4683692", "player": "Cason Wallace", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "2-8", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "6", "PTS": "7", "MIN": "18", "OREB": "2" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 40.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 40.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.07692307692307693, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.391304347826087, "reference_TS": 0.4187604690117253, "conditional_FGA": 23.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 17.0 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 37.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 37.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.2692307692307692, "reference_AST": 7.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 15.0, "conditional_3PA": 10.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "reference_minutes": 35.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 35.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.038461538461538464, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.38461538461538464, "reference_TS": 0.39625360230547546, "conditional_FGA": 13.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 10.0 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 38.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 38.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.19230769230769232, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.7505773672055427, "conditional_FGA": 16.0, "conditional_3PA": 9.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.45955882352941174, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.19230769230769232, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.5102040816326531, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4593803", "incumbent": "Jalen Williams", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:19Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4593803/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "69", "gamesStarted": "69", "avgMinutes": "32.4", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "8.2-16.9", "fieldGoalPct": "48.4", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.8-4.9", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "36.5", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "3.4-4.3", "freeThrowPct": "78.9", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.9", "avgAssists": "5.1", "avgTurnovers": "2.2", "avgPoints": "21.6" }, { "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4593803/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "33", "gamesStarted": "33", "avgMinutes": "28.4", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "6.5-13.5", "fieldGoalPct": "48.4", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.7-2.3", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "29.9", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "3.3-3.9", "freeThrowPct": "83.7", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.8", "avgAssists": "5.5", "avgTurnovers": "1.9", "avgPoints": "17.1" }, { "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4593803/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "565-1168", "fieldGoalPct": "48.4", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "124-340", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "36.5", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "236-299", "freeThrowPct": "78.9", "offensiveRebounds": "59", "assists": "354", "turnovers": "150", "points": "1490" }, { "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4593803/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "216-446", "fieldGoalPct": "48.4", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "23-77", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "29.9", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "108-129", "freeThrowPct": "83.7", "offensiveRebounds": "27", "assists": "181", "turnovers": "63", "points": "563" }, { "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4593803/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.4", "scoringEfficiency": "1.276", "shootingEfficiency": "0.54" }, { "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4593803/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.9", "scoringEfficiency": "1.262", "shootingEfficiency": "0.51" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "4593803", "player": "Jalen Williams", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "8-11", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "6", "PTS": "16", "MIN": "19", "OREB": "0" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 40.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 40.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.07692307692307693, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.391304347826087, "reference_TS": 0.4187604690117253, "conditional_FGA": 23.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 17.0 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 37.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 37.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.2692307692307692, "reference_AST": 7.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 15.0, "conditional_3PA": 10.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "reference_minutes": 35.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 35.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.038461538461538464, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.38461538461538464, "reference_TS": 0.39625360230547546, "conditional_FGA": 13.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 10.0 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 38.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 38.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.19230769230769232, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.7505773672055427, "conditional_FGA": 16.0, "conditional_3PA": 9.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.45955882352941174, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.19230769230769232, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.5102040816326531, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4432823", "incumbent": "Jaylin Williams", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:40Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4432823", "player": "Jaylin Williams", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432823/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "47", "gamesStarted": "9", "avgMinutes": "16.7", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.1-4.7", "fieldGoalPct": "43.9", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.3-3.3", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "39.9", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "0.5-0.6", 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"historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432823/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "97-221", "fieldGoalPct": "43.9", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "61-153", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "39.9", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "23-30", "freeThrowPct": "76.7", "offensiveRebounds": "48", "assists": "120", "turnovers": "35", "points": "278" }, { "player_id": "4432823", "player": "Jaylin Williams", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432823/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "149-352", "fieldGoalPct": "42.3", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "98-256", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "38.3", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "73-92", "freeThrowPct": "79.3", "offensiveRebounds": "32", "assists": "158", "turnovers": "67", "points": "469" }, { "player_id": "4432823", "player": "Jaylin Williams", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432823/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "3.4", "scoringEfficiency": "1.258", "shootingEfficiency": "0.58" }, { "player_id": "4432823", "player": "Jaylin Williams", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432823/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.4", "scoringEfficiency": "1.332", "shootingEfficiency": "0.56" } ], "current_form_separate": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 40.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 40.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.07692307692307693, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.391304347826087, "reference_TS": 0.4187604690117253, "conditional_FGA": 23.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 17.0 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 37.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 37.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.2692307692307692, "reference_AST": 7.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 15.0, "conditional_3PA": 10.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", "reference_minutes": 35.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 35.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.038461538461538464, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.38461538461538464, "reference_TS": 0.39625360230547546, "conditional_FGA": 13.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 10.0 }, { "player_id": "5241364", "player": "Bennett Stirtz", "reference_minutes": 38.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 38.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.19230769230769232, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.7505773672055427, "conditional_FGA": 16.0, "conditional_3PA": 9.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "5116468", "player": "Andrew Holifield", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4277923", "player": "Zhaire Smith", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.45955882352941174, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4897155", "player": "Anthony Pritchard", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.19230769230769232, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.5102040816326531, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "3133626", "incumbent": "Kenrich Williams", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:38Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3133626/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "69", "gamesStarted": "7", "avgMinutes": "16.4", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.5-5.1", "fieldGoalPct": "48.3", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.0-2.5", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "38.6", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "0.4-0.6", 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"regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3133626/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "171-354", "fieldGoalPct": "48.3", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "66-171", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "38.6", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "28-39", "freeThrowPct": "71.8", "offensiveRebounds": "65", "assists": "97", "turnovers": "39", "points": "436" }, { "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3133626/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "140-296", "fieldGoalPct": "47.3", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "50-129", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "38.8", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "33-52", "freeThrowPct": "63.5", "offensiveRebounds": "59", "assists": "79", "turnovers": "43", "points": "363" }, { "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3133626/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.5", "scoringEfficiency": "1.232", "shootingEfficiency": "0.58" }, { "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "25", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3133626/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.8", "scoringEfficiency": "1.226", "shootingEfficiency": "0.56" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401908620", "date": "2026-10-08T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401908620", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-9", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-6", "AST": "0", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "14", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898389", "date": "2026-10-07T00:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Oklahoma City Thunder", "player_id": "3133626", "player": "Kenrich Williams", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898389", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "3-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "3-4", "AST": "2", "PTS": "9", "MIN": "18", "OREB": "1" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4684208", "player": "Brooks Barnhizer", "reference_minutes": 40.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 40.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.07692307692307693, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.391304347826087, "reference_TS": 0.4187604690117253, "conditional_FGA": 23.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 17.0 }, { "player_id": "5105800", "player": "Josh Dix", "reference_minutes": 37.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 37.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.2692307692307692, "reference_AST": 7.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 15.0, "conditional_3PA": 10.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "5106270", "player": "Otega Oweh", 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No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." } ] }, { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401908621", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "rotation": [ { "player_id": "3149673", "player": "Pascal Siakam", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 22.09205020920502, "creation_assist_share": 0.12903225806451613, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6742738589211618, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4017837", "player": "Ivica Zubac", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.08786610878661, "creation_assist_share": 0.06451612903225806, "reference_AST": 2.0, 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"reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6147540983606558, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5105854", "player": "Braden Smith", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.05857740585774, "creation_assist_share": 0.16129032258064516, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4592677", "player": "Rienk Mast", "reference_minutes": 3.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.01255230125523, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.5, "reference_TS": 1.5, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5105647", "player": "Keba Keita", "reference_minutes": 2.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 2.00836820083682, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS": null, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction.", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [ { "reference_date": "2026-10-07T23:00Z", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "3149673", "player": "Pascal Siakam", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.07949790794979, "creation_assist_share": 0.07692307692307693, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.625, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4017837", "player": "Ivica Zubac", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 18.07531380753138, "creation_assist_share": 0.05128205128205128, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.42857142857142855, "reference_TS": 0.42857142857142855, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, 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16.06694560669456, "creation_assist_share": 0.15384615384615385, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.4375, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4278355", "player": "Obi Toppin", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.04602510460251, "creation_assist_share": 0.02564102564102564, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.9, "reference_TS": 0.9191176470588235, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4398207", "player": "Jalen Slawson", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.07531380753138, "creation_assist_share": 0.02564102564102564, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.4098360655737705, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "5106060", "player": "Jarace Walker", "reference_minutes": 28.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 28.11715481171548, "creation_assist_share": 0.2564102564102564, "reference_AST": 10.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5833333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.5434782608695652, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4065731", "player": "Jay Huff", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.07112970711297, "creation_assist_share": 0.10256410256410256, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6363636363636364, "reference_TS": 0.6734006734006733, "conditional_FGA": 11.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "3133603", "player": "Kelly Oubre Jr.", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0418410041841, "creation_assist_share": 0.05128205128205128, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.5, "reference_TS": 1.3297872340425532, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4431752", "player": "Kobe Brown", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.07112970711297, "creation_assist_share": 0.02564102564102564, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4433076", "player": "Ben Sheppard", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 22.09205020920502, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6111111111111112, "reference_TS": 0.6578947368421052, "conditional_FGA": 9.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4592829", "player": "Quenton Jackson", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.0418410041841, "creation_assist_share": 0.02564102564102564, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.25, "reference_TS": 1.25, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5105854", "player": "Braden Smith", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.05857740585774, "creation_assist_share": 0.1282051282051282, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.375, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4592677", "player": "Rienk Mast", "reference_minutes": 5.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 5.02092050209205, "creation_assist_share": 0.02564102564102564, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.625, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5105647", "player": "Keba Keita", "reference_minutes": 2.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 2.00836820083682, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [ "T.J. McConnell" ], "return_rule": "No current role sample => return opportunity unestimated; do not invent minutes." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "3149673", "player": "Pascal Siakam", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "6-6", "FG": "3-7", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-3", "AST": "4", "PTS": "13", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "4017837", "player": "Ivica Zubac", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "3-6", "FG": "4-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "2", "PTS": "11", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "3133603", "player": "Kelly Oubre Jr.", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "5-8", "TO": "2", "3PT": "3-5", "AST": "0", "PTS": "13", "MIN": "20", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "4395712", "player": "Andrew Nembhard", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "3-5", "TO": "2", "3PT": "2-3", "AST": "3", "PTS": "10", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "4396909", "player": "Aaron Nesmith", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "2-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "5", "PTS": "7", "MIN": "20", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "3999", "player": "James Johnson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "0-1", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "1", "PTS": "0", "MIN": "5", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "2580365", "player": "Larry Nance Jr.", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "1-2", "FG": "2-4", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-2", "AST": "3", "PTS": "6", "MIN": "12", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "4278355", "player": "Obi Toppin", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "5-8", "TO": "2", "3PT": "1-2", "AST": "1", "PTS": "11", "MIN": "15", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "4398207", "player": "Jalen Slawson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "3-6", "FG": "4-5", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "12", "MIN": "13", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "5106060", "player": "Jarace Walker", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "3-7", "TO": "2", "3PT": "2-5", "AST": "3", "PTS": "10", "MIN": "20", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "4065731", "player": "Jay Huff", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-6", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "1", "PTS": "5", "MIN": "10", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "4431752", "player": "Kobe Brown", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "3-4", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "6", "MIN": "12", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "4433076", "player": "Ben Sheppard", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-3", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "1", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "16", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "4592829", "player": "Quenton Jackson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "2-4", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "2", "PTS": "6", "MIN": "12", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "5105854", "player": "Braden Smith", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-3", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "5", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "14", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "4592677", "player": "Rienk Mast", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-1", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "3", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898396", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Indiana Pacers", "player_id": "5105647", "player": "Keba Keita", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "0-0", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "0", "MIN": "2", "OREB": "0" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh rendered October Trade filter empty; September both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 108.65243902439025, 121.21951219512195 ], "Primary": [ 108.64022039575111, 120.74902875453085 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 110.15244, 119.71951250000001 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612754/pacers", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898396", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions" ], "findings": "Haliburton full Monday practice but game-day decision. 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"reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "2580365", "player": "Larry Nance Jr.", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.05020920502092, "creation_assist_share": 0.0967741935483871, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.6147540983606558, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4278355", "player": "Obi Toppin", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.06276150627615, "creation_assist_share": 0.03225806451612903, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6875, "reference_TS": 0.6875, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4398207", "player": "Jalen Slawson", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.05439330543933, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.9, "reference_TS": 0.7853403141361256, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "5106060", "player": "Jarace Walker", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.0836820083682, "creation_assist_share": 0.0967741935483871, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5714285714285714, "reference_TS": 0.6345177664974619, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4431752", "player": "Kobe Brown", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.05020920502092, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.797872340425532, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4433076", "player": "Ben Sheppard", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.06694560669456, "creation_assist_share": 0.03225806451612903, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4592829", "player": "Quenton Jackson", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.05020920502092, "creation_assist_share": 0.06451612903225806, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6147540983606558, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5105854", "player": "Braden Smith", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.05857740585774, "creation_assist_share": 0.16129032258064516, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. 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0.5087209302325582, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "3999", "player": "James Johnson", "reference_minutes": 5.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 5.02092050209205, "creation_assist_share": 0.03225806451612903, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "2580365", "player": "Larry Nance Jr.", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.05020920502092, "creation_assist_share": 0.0967741935483871, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.6147540983606558, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4278355", "player": "Obi Toppin", 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"reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5714285714285714, "reference_TS": 0.6345177664974619, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4431752", "player": "Kobe Brown", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.05020920502092, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.797872340425532, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4433076", "player": "Ben Sheppard", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.06694560669456, "creation_assist_share": 0.03225806451612903, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4592829", "player": "Quenton Jackson", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.05020920502092, "creation_assist_share": 0.06451612903225806, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6147540983606558, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5105854", "player": "Braden Smith", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.05857740585774, "creation_assist_share": 0.16129032258064516, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations 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Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. 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"Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 12.567073170731703, "combined": 229.8719512195122, "spread_buffer": 6.067073170731703, "total_difference": 1.371951219512198 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 12.567073170731703, "combined": 229.8719512195122, "spread_buffer": 6.067073170731703, "total_difference": 1.371951219512198 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 12.10880835877974, "combined": 229.38924915028196, "spread_buffer": 5.60880835877974, "total_difference": 0.8892491502819553 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 12.10880835877974, "combined": 229.38924915028196, "spread_buffer": 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"PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 9.567072500000009, "combined": 229.87195250000002, "spread_buffer": 3.067072500000009, "total_difference": 1.3719525000000203 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 9.567072500000009, "combined": 229.87195250000002, "spread_buffer": 3.067072500000009, "total_difference": 1.3719525000000203 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892497", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892497", "date": "2026-10-14T00:15Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "30", "away_name": "Minnesota Wild", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Winnipeg Jets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { 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Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.1951200000000002, 5.19512 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30, "official_team_name": "Minnesota Wild" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 52, "official_team_name": "Winnipeg Jets" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.1951200000000002, 5.19512 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.86585, "official_team_id": 30, "official_team_name": "Minnesota Wild" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 52, "official_team_name": "Winnipeg Jets" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.1951200000000002, 5.19512 ], "home": [ 0.8292649999999999, 4.8292649999999995 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "MIN: Marcus Foligno IR and Pitlick recall; Nico Sturm newly Out during October12 game, remove partial role conditionally and test recalled depth. Nick Foligno/Faber remain absent. Goaltenders kept separate. Recent-reference new availability branches: Nico Sturm. WPG: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Canada Life Centre; listed 2026-10-14T00:15Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892497", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Minnesota Wild", "home": "Winnipeg Jets", "start_et": "2026-10-13T20:15:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T00:15Z", "venue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 8:15 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 8:15 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Minnesota Wild", "previous_game": { "id": "401892487", "date": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1835", "fullName": "Grand Casino Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Saint Paul", "state": "MN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "37", "away_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Minnesota Wild", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "previous_game": { "id": "401892468", "date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "Anaheim Ducks", "away_score": 5.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Winnipeg Jets", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20736.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 4, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020099, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1188.1387920368913, "PP_seconds": 17.0, "SH_seconds": 1.0 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 660.5315487571702, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 372.0 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 633.9466876616804, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 911.0427398492858, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 163.0 }, { "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 552.1471150601732, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 654.3965808120571, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 114.0 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1062.371949162074, "PP_seconds": 17.0, "SH_seconds": 227.0 }, { "player_id": 8474716, "player": "Jared Spurgeon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1116, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 296 }, { "player_id": 8474567, "player": "Zach Bogosian", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 707, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 234 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 984.6623551906422, "PP_seconds": 17.0, "SH_seconds": 194.0 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 848.6705657406366, "PP_seconds": 17.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 939.6725902598133, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 655.419075469576, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1017, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 245 }, { "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1222, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 294 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15240.0, "PP_seconds": 85.0, "SH_seconds": 2140.0 }, "calculation": "Reallocate missing observed EV/PP/SH seconds among demonstrated same-position-group reference skaters in proportion to each strength exposure. Explicit shortened-bench sensitivity; final dressing replacement and PP-unit labels not invented.", "unassigned_dressing_slot": "Current reserve choice unconfirmed; no independent scoring contribution assumed." } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8481553, "name": { "default": "B. Brink" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:20", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8481557, "name": { "default": "M. Boldy" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:34", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8478508, "name": { "default": "Y. Trenin", "cs": "J. Trenin", "fi": "J. Trenin", "sk": "J. Trenin" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:34", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8478493, "name": { "default": "J. Eriksson Ek" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:23", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8476399, "name": { "default": "B. Coleman" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:34", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8483525, "name": { "default": "D. Yurov" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:41", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8477451, "name": { "default": "R. Hartman" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:19", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8477446, "name": { "default": "M. McCarron" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:58", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8485702, "name": { "default": "M. Shabanov" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "14:07", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8483478, "name": { "default": "R. Lorenz" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:00", "shifts": 12 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8481477, "name": { "default": "N. Sturm" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "03:20", "shifts": 5 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8478864, "name": { "default": "K. Kaprizov" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:40", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8476874, "name": { "default": "O. Maatta", "cs": "O. M\u00e4\u00e4tt\u00e4", "fi": "O. M\u00e4\u00e4tt\u00e4", "sk": "O. M\u00e4\u00e4tt\u00e4", "sv": "O. M\u00e4\u00e4tt\u00e4" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:16", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8474567, "name": { "default": "Z. Bogosian" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:41", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8476463, "name": { "default": "J. Brodin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:02", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8480800, "name": { "default": "Q. Hughes" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:36", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8474716, "name": { "default": "J. Spurgeon" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:32", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "MIN", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8482094, "name": { "default": "D. Hunt" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:28", "shifts": 15 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.1094746716697936, 2.8240712945590993 ], "Primary": [ 3.1365387795086046, 2.844690211864065 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Marcus Foligno IR and Pitlick recall; Nico Sturm newly Out during October12 game, remove partial role conditionally and test recalled depth. Nick Foligno/Faber remain absent. Goaltenders kept separate. Recent-reference new availability branches: Nico Sturm.", "reference_date": "2026-10-12", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8475220, "player": "Marcus Foligno", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8473422, "player": "Nick Foligno", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8475752, "player": "Tyler Pitlick", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8481477, "player": "Nico Sturm", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8474567, "player": "Zach Bogosian", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8482122, "player": "Brock Faber", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8482641, "player": "Matt Kiersted", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8483766, "player": "David Spacek", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8474716, "player": "Jared Spurgeon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8479406, "player": "Filip Gustavsson", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8475717, "player": "Calvin Pickard", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" }, { "team": "MIN", "player_id": 8482661, "player": "Jesper Wallstedt", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/MIN/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Minnesota Wild", "abbreviation": "MIN", "player": "Nico Sturm", "player_id": "4320625", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-13T01:16Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/30/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.294282+00:00" }, { "team": "Minnesota Wild", "abbreviation": "MIN", "player": "Marcus 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"sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.1, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:02", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.882353, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1162, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 1 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 646, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 372 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 620, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 163 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 540, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1039, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 227 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 194 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 830, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 919, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 641, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8475220, "incumbent": "Marcus Foligno", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T22:12Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8475220, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475220/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "14:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.368421, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 14, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 75, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 29, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.153846, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 91, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "16:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.2, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.3, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 5, "avgToi": "12:51", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.45, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 56, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 67, "plusMinus": -12, "points": 13, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.123077, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 65, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.285714, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "12:10", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1162, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 1 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 646, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 372 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 620, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 163 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 540, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1039, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 227 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 194 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 830, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 919, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481477, "player": "Nico Sturm", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 200, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 641, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8473422, "incumbent": "Nick Foligno", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T15:50Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8473422, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8473422/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 20, "avgToi": "15:55", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.484375, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 78, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 48, "plusMinus": -17, "points": 35, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.144231, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 104, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "12:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.493902, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 37, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 27, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 11, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.1, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 30, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "12:19", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.494118, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 17, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 17, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.052632, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 19, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "12:05", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.444444, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:57", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.333333, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.333333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478864, "player": "Kirill Kaprizov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1162, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 1 }, { "player_id": 8477446, "player": "Michael McCarron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 646, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 372 }, { "player_id": 8481553, "player": "Bobby Brink", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 620, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476399, "player": "Blake Coleman", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 891, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 163 }, { "player_id": 8483478, "player": "Rieger Lorenz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 540, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478508, "player": "Yakov Trenin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 640, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8478493, "player": "Joel Eriksson Ek", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1039, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 227 }, { "player_id": 8481557, "player": "Matt Boldy", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 194 }, { "player_id": 8485702, "player": "Maxim Shabanov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 830, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477451, "player": "Ryan Hartman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 919, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481477, "player": "Nico Sturm", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 200, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483525, "player": "Danila Yurov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 641, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8482122, "incumbent": "Brock Faber", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T16:21Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482122, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482122/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 19, "avgToi": "25:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 78, "goals": 10, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 23, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 29, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 10, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.080645, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 124, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "23:20", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 1, "teamName": { "default": "United States" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "27:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 36, "avgToi": "24:41", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 39, "plusMinus": 18, "points": 51, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 11, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.086705, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 173, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "18:01", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.13, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "USA", "es": "Estados Unidos", "fi": "Yhdysvaltojen", "fr": "\u00c9tats-Unis" }, "teamName": { "default": "USA" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "29:44", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": 11, "points": 10, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.137931, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 29, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480800, "player": "Quinn Hughes", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1339, "PP_seconds": 17, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482094, "player": "Daemon Hunt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474716, "player": "Jared Spurgeon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1116, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 296 }, { "player_id": 8474567, "player": "Zach Bogosian", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 707, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 234 }, { "player_id": 8476463, "player": "Jonas Brodin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1017, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 245 }, { "player_id": 8476874, "player": "Olli Maatta", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1222, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 294 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020099, "team": "WPG", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 750, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 750.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Lowry", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476392, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 29, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 29.0, "shTimeOnIce": 29, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 29.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Lowry", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 808, "timeOnIcePerGame": 808.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.88888 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 778, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 778.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Vilardi", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480014, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 338, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 338.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Gabriel Vilardi", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 1116, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1116.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 58.73684 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 755, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 755.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Ros\u00e9n", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482765, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 141, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 141.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Isak Ros\u00e9n", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 896, "timeOnIcePerGame": 896.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.15789 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 929, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 929.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Bj\u00f6rck", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8486025, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 111, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 111.0, "shTimeOnIce": 13, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 13.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 1053, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1053.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.42105 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1001, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1001.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Scheifele", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476460, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 337, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 337.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, 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"otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482149, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 339, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 339.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Perfetti", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 1340, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1340.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 58.26086 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1154, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1154.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Ferraro", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479983, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 44, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 44.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mario Ferraro", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 1198, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1198.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.08695 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 440, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 440.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Koepke", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481043, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 12, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 12.0, "shifts": 13, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cole Koepke", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 452, "timeOnIcePerGame": 452.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 34.76923 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1219, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1219.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Samberg", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480049, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 29, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 29.0, "shTimeOnIce": 78, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 78.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Samberg", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 1326, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1326.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.04 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 810, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 810.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Fleury", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477938, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 116, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 116.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Haydn Fleury", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 926, "timeOnIcePerGame": 926.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.09523 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 486, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 486.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Namestnikov", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476480, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 112, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 112.0, "shTimeOnIce": 77, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 77.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 675, "timeOnIcePerGame": 675.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 665, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 665.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Iafallo", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480113, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 139, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 139.0, "shTimeOnIce": 79, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alex Iafallo", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 883, "timeOnIcePerGame": 883.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.15 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1067, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1067.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Pionk", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480145, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 359, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 359.0, "shTimeOnIce": 76, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 76.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Neal Pionk", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 1502, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1502.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.62962 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 507, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 507.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Lambert", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483471, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 12, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Brad Lambert", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 507, "timeOnIcePerGame": 507.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.25 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 822, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 822.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Barron", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480289, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 30, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 30.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Morgan Barron", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 852, "timeOnIcePerGame": 852.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.8421 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1251, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1251.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "DeMelo", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476331, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 7, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.0, "shTimeOnIce": 42, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 42.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Dylan DeMelo", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 1300, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1300.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1093, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1093.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-09", "gameId": 2026020069, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "H", "lastName": "Connor", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "ANA", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478398, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 343, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 343.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Kyle Connor", "teamAbbrev": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 1436, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1436.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 62.43478 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8476392, "player": "Adam Lowry", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 29, "SH_seconds": 29 }, { "player_id": 8480014, "player": "Gabriel Vilardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 778, "PP_seconds": 338, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482765, "player": "Isak Ros\u00e9n", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 755, "PP_seconds": 141, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486025, "player": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 929, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8476460, "player": "Mark Scheifele", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1001, "PP_seconds": 337, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482459, "player": "Tyrel Bauer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 504, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482149, "player": "Cole Perfetti", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1001, "PP_seconds": 339, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479983, "player": "Mario Ferraro", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1154, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8481043, "player": "Cole Koepke", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 440, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 12 }, { "player_id": 8480049, "player": "Dylan Samberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1219, "PP_seconds": 29, "SH_seconds": 78 }, { "player_id": 8477938, "player": "Haydn Fleury", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 810, "PP_seconds": 116, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476480, "player": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 486, "PP_seconds": 112, "SH_seconds": 77 }, { "player_id": 8480113, "player": "Alex Iafallo", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 665, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8480145, "player": "Neal Pionk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1067, "PP_seconds": 359, "SH_seconds": 76 }, { "player_id": 8483471, "player": "Brad Lambert", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 507, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480289, "player": "Morgan Barron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 822, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 30 }, { "player_id": 8476331, "player": "Dylan DeMelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1251, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8478398, "player": "Kyle Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1093, "PP_seconds": 343, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15232, "PP_seconds": 2400, "SH_seconds": 480 }, "conditional_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional return role sensitivity", "return_player": { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8477504, "player": "Josh Morrissey", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, "displaced_slot": { "player_id": 8482459, "player": "Tyrel Bauer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 504, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8476392, "player": "Adam Lowry", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 29, "SH_seconds": 29 }, { "player_id": 8480014, "player": "Gabriel Vilardi", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 778, "PP_seconds": 338, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482765, "player": "Isak Ros\u00e9n", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 755, "PP_seconds": 141, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486025, "player": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 929, "PP_seconds": 111, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8476460, "player": "Mark Scheifele", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1001, "PP_seconds": 337, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477504, "player": "Josh Morrissey", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 504, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482149, "player": "Cole Perfetti", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1001, "PP_seconds": 339, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479983, "player": "Mario Ferraro", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1154, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8481043, "player": "Cole Koepke", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 440, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 12 }, { "player_id": 8480049, "player": "Dylan Samberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1219, "PP_seconds": 29, "SH_seconds": 78 }, { "player_id": 8477938, "player": "Haydn Fleury", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 810, "PP_seconds": 116, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476480, "player": "Vladislav Namestnikov", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 486, "PP_seconds": 112, "SH_seconds": 77 }, { "player_id": 8480113, "player": "Alex Iafallo", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 665, "PP_seconds": 139, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8480145, "player": "Neal Pionk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1067, "PP_seconds": 359, "SH_seconds": 76 }, { "player_id": 8483471, "player": "Brad Lambert", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 507, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480289, "player": "Morgan Barron", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 822, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 30 }, { "player_id": 8476331, "player": "Dylan DeMelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1251, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8478398, "player": "Kyle Connor", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1093, "PP_seconds": 343, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15232, "PP_seconds": 2400, "SH_seconds": 480 }, "calculation": "Transfer identified observed same-position role seconds to returning player; no added team exposure or goal/assist double count. Bedard primary top-line/PP1 role supported; exact displaced center and all other returns analyst sensitivity, not confirmed coach decisions.", "previous_current_role_samples": [ { "event_id": 2026020019, "date": "2026-10-02", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020019/boxscore", "playerId": 8477504, "name": { "default": "J. Morrissey" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:22", "shifts": 32 }, { "event_id": 2026020054, "date": "2026-10-07", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020054/boxscore", "playerId": 8477504, "name": { "default": "J. Morrissey" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:32", "shifts": 11 }, { "event_id": 2026020035, "date": "2026-10-04", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020035/boxscore", "playerId": 8477504, "name": { "default": "J. Morrissey" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:33", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020042, "date": "2026-10-05", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020042/boxscore", "playerId": 8477504, "name": { "default": "J. Morrissey" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:50", "shifts": 29 } ] } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8476480, "name": { "default": "V. Namestnikov", "cs": "V. Nam\u011bstnikov" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:15", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8480113, "name": { "default": "A. Iafallo" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:43", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8480014, "name": { "default": "G. Vilardi" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:36", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8476392, "name": { "default": "A. Lowry" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:28", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8482765, "name": { "default": "I. Rosen" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:56", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8480289, "name": { "default": "M. Barron" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:12", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8481043, "name": { "default": "C. 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Bj\u00f6rck" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:33", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8478398, "name": { "default": "K. Connor" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:56", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8482149, "name": { "default": "C. Perfetti" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:20", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8483471, "name": { "default": "B. Lambert" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:27", "shifts": 12 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8476331, "name": { "default": "D. DeMelo", "cs": "D. Demelo", "de": "D. Demelo", "fi": "D. Demelo", "sk": "D. Demelo", "sv": "D. 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Fleury" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:26", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8479983, "name": { "default": "M. Ferraro" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:58", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8480049, "name": { "default": "D. Samberg" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:06", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020069, "date": "2026-10-09", "stage": "regular", "team": "WPG", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "playerId": 8482459, "name": { "default": "T. Bauer" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:24", "shifts": 15 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.1094746716697936, 2.8240712945590993 ], "Primary": [ 3.1365387795086046, 2.844690211864065 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020069/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. 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8477504, "player": "Josh Morrissey", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8480145, "player": "Neal Pionk", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8480049, "player": "Dylan Samberg", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8481030, "player": "Jack St. Ivany", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8476945, "player": "Connor Hellebuyck", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8479973, "player": "Stuart Skinner", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" }, { "team": "WPG", "player_id": 8483532, "player": "Clay Stevenson", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/WPG/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "abbreviation": "WPG", "player": "Garrett Brown", "player_id": "5104207", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:55Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/28/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.717243+00:00" }, { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "abbreviation": "WPG", "player": "Walker Duehr", "player_id": "4319940", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:54Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/28/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.717243+00:00" }, { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "abbreviation": "WPG", "player": "Josh Morrissey", "player_id": "3042016", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T13:49Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/28/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.717243+00:00" }, { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "abbreviation": "WPG", "player": "Elias Salomonsson", "player_id": "5080223", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:54Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/28/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.717243+00:00" }, { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "abbreviation": "WPG", "player": "Connor Hellebuyck", "player_id": "3020225", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-02T20:25Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/28/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.717243+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475799, 8476331, 8476392, 8476460, 8476480, 8476945, 8477504, 8477938, 8478398, 8479973, 8479983, 8480014, 8480049, 8480113, 8480145, 8480289, 8481030, 8481043, 8482149, 8482459, 8482765, 8483471, 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"shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 3, "skaterFullName": "Dylan DeMelo", "goals": 3, "evPoints": 19, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.16161, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 73, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8476392, "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "points": 34, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 99, "timeOnIcePerGame": 925.6986, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 2, "evGoals": 16, "skaterFullName": "Adam Lowry", "goals": 16, "evPoints": 32, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.21546, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 3, "playerId": 8476460, "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "points": 87, "assists": 48, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 181, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1226.3902, "ppGoals": 11, "ppPoints": 25, "gameWinningGoals": 11, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 28, "skaterFullName": "Mark Scheifele", "goals": 39, "evPoints": 62, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.11702, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 78, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8476480, 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"source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 39, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477938, "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "points": 7, "assists": 7, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 38, "timeOnIcePerGame": 955.6666, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 0, "skaterFullName": "Haydn Fleury", "goals": 0, "evPoints": 7, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.15355, "shGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 2, "playerId": 8478398, 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"shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 74, "shiftsPerGame": 14.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Brad Lambert", "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 3180, "timeOnIcePerGame": 636.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.97297 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3790, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 758.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Bj\u00f6rck", "otTimeOnIce": 44, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 44.0, "playerId": 8486025, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 390, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 78.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 246, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 49.2, "shifts": 89, "shiftsPerGame": 17.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Viggo Bj\u00f6rck", "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 4426, "timeOnIcePerGame": 885.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.73033 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892497", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.1094746716697936, 2.8240712945590993 ], "Primary": [ 3.1365387795086046, 2.844690211864065 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.19512, 2.829265 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Garrett Brown", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:55Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Walker Duehr", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:54Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8477504, "incumbent": "Josh Morrissey", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T13:49Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8477504, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477504/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 48, "avgToi": "24:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 14, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 17, "points": 62, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 22, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.081395, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 172, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "21:32", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "4 Nations", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 44, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 3, "teamName": { "default": "Canada" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "21:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 12, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 19, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 41, "avgToi": "24:43", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 14, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 30, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 55, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 16, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.09589, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 146, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "7:10", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canada", "cs": "Kanada", "de": "Kanada", "es": "Canad\u00e1", "fi": "Kanada", "sk": "Kanada", "sv": "Kanada" }, "teamName": { "default": "Canada", "cs": "Kanada", "de": "Kanada", "es": "Canad\u00e1", "fi": "Kanada", "sk": "Kanada", "sv": "Kanada" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "20:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 12, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Jets" }, "teamName": { "default": "Winnipeg Jets", "fr": "Jets de Winnipeg" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Winnipeg", "fr": "de Winnipeg" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482459, "player": "Tyrel Bauer", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 504, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479983, "player": "Mario Ferraro", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1154, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8480049, "player": "Dylan Samberg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1219, "PP_seconds": 29, "SH_seconds": 78 }, { "player_id": 8477938, "player": "Haydn Fleury", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 810, "PP_seconds": 116, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480145, "player": "Neal Pionk", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1067, "PP_seconds": 359, "SH_seconds": 76 }, { "player_id": 8476331, "player": "Dylan DeMelo", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1251, "PP_seconds": 7, "SH_seconds": 42 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Elias Salomonsson", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:54Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets", "market": { "id": "401892497", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892497", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.566070+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.799529+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 220.0, "away_line_price": -270.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 105.0, "under_price": -125.0, "home_ml": -115.0, "away_ml": -105.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2854033771106943, "combined": 5.933545966228893, "spread_buffer": -1.7854033771106943, "total_difference": -0.566454033771107 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2854033771106943, "combined": 5.933545966228893, "spread_buffer": -1.7854033771106943, "total_difference": -0.566454033771107 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2918485676445397, "combined": 5.981228991372669, "spread_buffer": -1.7918485676445397, "total_difference": -0.5187710086273309 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2918485676445397, "combined": 5.981228991372669, "spread_buffer": -1.7918485676445397, "total_difference": -0.5187710086273309 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.36585500000000026, "combined": 6.0243850000000005, "spread_buffer": -1.8658550000000003, "total_difference": -0.47561499999999945 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.36585500000000026, "combined": 6.0243850000000005, "spread_buffer": -1.8658550000000003, "total_difference": -0.47561499999999945 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.36585500000000026, "combined": 6.0243850000000005, "spread_buffer": -1.8658550000000003, "total_difference": -0.47561499999999945 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.36585500000000026, "combined": 6.0243850000000005, "spread_buffer": -1.8658550000000003, "total_difference": -0.47561499999999945 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892498", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892498", "date": "2026-10-14T00:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "516", "fullName": "American Airlines Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Dallas", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "17", "away_name": "Colorado Avalanche", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "9", "home_name": "Dallas Stars", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.155609756097561, 3.011219512195122 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.155609756097561, 3.011219512195122 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.155609756097561, 3.011219512195122 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.682926829268293, 2.475609756097561 ], "current_rates": [ 5.2, 3.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.402439024390244, 2.7560975609756095 ], "current_rates": [ 2.2, 1.6 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21, "official_team_name": "Colorado Avalanche" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.32926, "pa": 2.70731, "official_team_id": 25, "official_team_name": "Dallas Stars" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.63414, "pa": 2.40243, "official_team_id": 21, "official_team_name": "Colorado Avalanche" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.32926, "pa": 2.70731, "official_team_id": 25, "official_team_name": "Dallas Stars" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.8658450000000002, 4.865845 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "COL: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. DAL: Duchene surgery and three-month absence confirmed; all five regular games already omit him so no repeat full-player deduction. Faksa/Kiviranta expected available, not fresh losses; stale Lundkvist Out flag superseded by current actual play. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "American Airlines Center; listed 2026-10-14T00:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892498", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Colorado Avalanche", "home": "Dallas Stars", "start_et": "2026-10-13T20:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T00:30Z", "venue": { "id": "516", "fullName": "American Airlines Center", "address": { "city": "Dallas", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 8:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 8:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Colorado Avalanche", "previous_game": { "id": "401892478", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "892", "fullName": "Ball Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Denver", "state": "CO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away_score": 6.0, "home": "17", "home_name": "Colorado Avalanche", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Dallas Stars", "previous_game": { "id": "401892475", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1837", "fullName": "PPG Paints Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Pittsburgh", "state": "PA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "9", "away_name": "Dallas Stars", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "16", "home_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020100, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "tu": { "id": "401892498", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892498", "date": "2026-10-14T00:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "516", "fullName": "American Airlines Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Dallas", "state": "TX", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "17", "away_name": "Colorado Avalanche", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "9", "home_name": "Dallas Stars", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "formula": "2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus", "away_score": 3.170725, "home_score": 2.865845, "unrounded_score": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 3.17, 2.87 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. 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Kulak" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:02", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "COL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8476312, "name": { "default": "J. Manson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:55", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "COL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8484258, "name": { "default": "S. Malinski" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:24", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "COL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8470613, "name": { "default": "B. Burns" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:41", "shifts": 19 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.155609756097561, 3.011219512195122 ], "Primary": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8486171, "player": "T.J. Hughes", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8475172, "player": "Nazem Kadri", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8480448, "player": "Parker Kelly", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8482742, "player": "Zachary L'Heureux", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8476455, "player": "Gabriel Landeskog", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8477476, "player": "Artturi Lehkonen", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8477492, "player": "Nathan MacKinnon", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8480039, "player": "Martin Necas", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8475754, "player": "Brock Nelson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8481186, "player": "Logan O'Connor", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8478462, "player": "Nicolas Roy", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8475768, "player": "Jaden Schwartz", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8482768, "player": "Fedor Svechkov", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8470613, "player": "Brent Burns", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8478454, "player": "Noah Juulsen", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8476967, "player": "Brett Kulak", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8480069, "player": "Cale Makar", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8484258, "player": "Sam Malinski", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8476312, "player": "Josh Manson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8478038, "player": "Devon Toews", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8478406, "player": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" }, { "team": "COL", "player_id": 8475809, "player": "Scott Wedgewood", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/COL/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Colorado Avalanche", "abbreviation": "COL", "player": "Georgii Merkulov", "player_id": "5103687", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:41Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/17/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" }, { "team": "Colorado Avalanche", "abbreviation": "COL", "player": "Logan O'Connor", "player_id": "3988782", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-08T23:39Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/17/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8470613, 8475172, 8475754, 8475768, 8475809, 8476312, 8476455, 8476967, 8477476, 8477492, 8478038, 8478406, 8478454, 8478462, 8480039, 8480069, 8480448, 8481186, 8482742, 8482768, 8484258, 8486171 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.03448, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8470613, "teamAbbrevs": "CAR", "points": 29, "assists": 23, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 174, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1257.3414, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 6, "skaterFullName": "Brent Burns", "goals": 6, "evPoints": 26, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.12544, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 2, "playerId": 8475172, "teamAbbrevs": "CGY", "points": 67, "assists": 32, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 279, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1161.2926, "ppGoals": 9, "ppPoints": 22, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 26, "skaterFullName": "Nazem Kadri", "goals": 35, "evPoints": 45, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.13471, "shGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 80, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8475754, "teamAbbrevs": "NYI,COL", "points": 56, "assists": 30, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 193, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1134.75, "ppGoals": 3, "ppPoints": 7, "gameWinningGoals": 7, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 3, "evGoals": 20, "skaterFullName": "Brock Nelson", "goals": 26, "evPoints": 46, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.13402, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8475768, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA", "points": 49, "assists": 23, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 194, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1072.9629, "ppGoals": 6, "ppPoints": 10, "gameWinningGoals": 6, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 20, "skaterFullName": "Jaden Schwartz", "goals": 26, "evPoints": 39, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.01538, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 48, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8476312, "teamAbbrevs": "COL", "points": 15, "assists": 14, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 65, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1082.4791, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 1, "skaterFullName": "Josh Manson", "goals": 1, "evPoints": 13, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.05185, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8476967, "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "points": 25, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 135, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1232.0975, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 7, "skaterFullName": "Brett Kulak", "goals": 7, "evPoints": 25, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.18243, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 69, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477476, "teamAbbrevs": "COL", "points": 45, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 148, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1222.8985, "ppGoals": 1, "ppPoints": 5, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 25, "skaterFullName": "Artturi Lehkonen", "goals": 27, "evPoints": 39, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.1, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 79, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8477492, "teamAbbrevs": "COL", "points": 116, "assists": 84, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 320, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1366.9493, "ppGoals": 9, "ppPoints": 38, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 23, "skaterFullName": "Nathan MacKinnon", "goals": 32, "evPoints": 78, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.07246, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 76, "otGoals": 2, "playerId": 8478038, "teamAbbrevs": "COL", "points": 44, "assists": 34, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 138, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1475.3684, "ppGoals": 1, "ppPoints": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 9, "skaterFullName": "Devon Toews", "goals": 10, "evPoints": 41, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 35, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478454, "teamAbbrevs": "VAN", "points": 0, "assists": 0, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 26, "timeOnIcePerGame": 977.4285, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 0, "skaterFullName": "Noah Juulsen", "goals": 0, "evPoints": 0, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.14018, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 71, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478462, "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "points": 31, "assists": 16, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 107, "timeOnIcePerGame": 913.0704, "ppGoals": 2, "ppPoints": 4, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 13, "skaterFullName": "Nicolas Roy", "goals": 15, "evPoints": 27, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.13917, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 79, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8480039, "teamAbbrevs": "CAR,COL", "points": 83, "assists": 56, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 194, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1139.9113, "ppGoals": 12, "ppPoints": 37, "gameWinningGoals": 8, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 15, "skaterFullName": "Martin Necas", "goals": 27, "evPoints": 46, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.12195, "shGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 80, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8480069, "teamAbbrevs": "COL", "points": 92, "assists": 62, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 246, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1542.975, "ppGoals": 12, "ppPoints": 35, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 3, "evGoals": 16, "skaterFullName": "Cale Makar", "goals": 30, "evPoints": 54, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": 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208, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 41.6, "shifts": 87, "shiftsPerGame": 17.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Fedor Svechkov", "teamAbbrevs": "COL", "timeOnIce": 4001, "timeOnIcePerGame": 800.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.9885 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3928, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 982.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Malinski", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484258, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 10, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 87, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 21.75, "shifts": 83, "shiftsPerGame": 20.75, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sam Malinski", "teamAbbrevs": "COL", "timeOnIce": 4025, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1006.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.49397 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3382, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 676.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Hughes", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8486171, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1171, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 234.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 81, "shiftsPerGame": 16.2, "shootsCatches": null, "skaterFullName": "T.J. Hughes", "teamAbbrevs": "COL", "timeOnIce": 4553, "timeOnIcePerGame": 910.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.20987 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892498", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.155609756097561, 3.011219512195122 ], "Primary": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Georgii Merkulov", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:41Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8481186, "incumbent": "Logan O'Connor", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-08T23:39Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8481186, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481186/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 11, "avgToi": "14:07", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.385714, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 10, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 26, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 21, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.11236, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 89, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "13:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 7, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.181818, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 11, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "11:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "11:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.066667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 15, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482742, "player": "Zachary L'Heureux", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 457, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 20 }, { "player_id": 8478462, "player": "Nicolas Roy", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 487, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 52 }, { "player_id": 8477492, "player": "Nathan MacKinnon", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 950, "PP_seconds": 477, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8486171, "player": "T.J. Hughes", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 469, "PP_seconds": 371, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475172, "player": "Nazem Kadri", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 772, "PP_seconds": 478, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475768, "player": "Jaden Schwartz", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 525, "PP_seconds": 114, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476455, "player": "Gabriel Landeskog", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 857, "PP_seconds": 215, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482768, "player": "Fedor Svechkov", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 589, "PP_seconds": 37, "SH_seconds": 52 }, { "player_id": 8477476, "player": "Artturi Lehkonen", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 902, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 125 }, { "player_id": 8480039, "player": "Martin Necas", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 964, "PP_seconds": 483, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475754, "player": "Brock Nelson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 762, "PP_seconds": 121, "SH_seconds": 184 }, { "player_id": 8480448, "player": "Parker Kelly", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 538, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 157 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020100, "team": "DAL", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 541, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 541.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "B\u00e4ck", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480840, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 286, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 286.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Oskar B\u00e4ck", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 827, "timeOnIcePerGame": 827.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.64705 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 567, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 567.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Blackwell", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476278, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 63, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 63.0, "shifts": 11, "shiftsPerGame": 11.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Colin Blackwell", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 630, "timeOnIcePerGame": 630.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.27272 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 984, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 984.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Robertson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 96, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 96.0, "playerId": 8480027, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 285, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 285.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jason Robertson", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 1269, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1269.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 66.78947 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 593, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 593.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Myers", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8474574, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 168, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 168.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tyler Myers", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 761, "timeOnIcePerGame": 761.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.27777 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 848, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 848.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Lindell", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476902, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 11, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 11.0, "shTimeOnIce": 360, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 360.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Esa Lindell", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 1219, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1219.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 664, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 664.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Bichsel", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483425, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 6, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.0, "shTimeOnIce": 167, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 167.0, "shifts": 18, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Lian Bichsel", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 837, "timeOnIcePerGame": 837.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 312, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 312.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Faksa", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476889, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 195, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 195.0, "shifts": 11, "shiftsPerGame": 11.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Radek Faksa", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 507, "timeOnIcePerGame": 507.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.0909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 784, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 784.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Seguin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 36, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 36.0, "playerId": 8475794, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 10, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 10.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tyler Seguin", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 794, "timeOnIcePerGame": 794.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1296, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1296.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Heiskanen", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 166, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 166.0, "playerId": 8480036, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 265, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 265.0, "shTimeOnIce": 263, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 263.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Miro Heiskanen", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 1824, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1824.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 67.55555 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1410, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1410.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Harley", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 134, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 134.0, "playerId": 8481581, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 26, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 26.0, "shTimeOnIce": 99, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 99.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Thomas Harley", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 1535, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1535.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 63.95833 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 529, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 529.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Hyry", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484938, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 252, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 252.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Arttu Hyry", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 781, "timeOnIcePerGame": 781.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.8125 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1114, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1114.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Rantanen", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 139, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 139.0, "playerId": 8478420, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 275, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 275.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mikko Rantanen", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 1389, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1389.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 63.13636 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 601, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 601.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Hryckowian", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484829, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 26, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 26.0, "shTimeOnIce": 62, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 62.0, "shifts": 14, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Justin Hryckowian", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 689, "timeOnIcePerGame": 689.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.21428 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 647, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 647.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Benn", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8473994, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 6, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jamie Benn", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 653, "timeOnIcePerGame": 653.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.8125 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 980, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 980.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Lundkvist", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480878, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 7, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nils Lundkvist", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 987, "timeOnIcePerGame": 987.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.35 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1019, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1019.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Johnston", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 135, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 135.0, "playerId": 8482740, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 280, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 280.0, "shTimeOnIce": 8, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Wyatt Johnston", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 1307, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1307.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 65.35 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 925, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 925.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Steel", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 73, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 73.0, "playerId": 8479351, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 2, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "shTimeOnIce": 189, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 189.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Sam Steel", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 1116, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1116.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.8 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 975, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 975.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020077, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Hintz", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "PIT", "otTimeOnIce": 121, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 121.0, "playerId": 8478449, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 263, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 263.0, "shTimeOnIce": 5, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Roope Hintz", "teamAbbrev": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 1243, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1243.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 59.19047 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8480840, "player": "Oskar B\u00e4ck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 541, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 286 }, { "player_id": 8476278, "player": "Colin Blackwell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 567, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 63 }, { "player_id": 8480027, "player": "Jason Robertson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 984, "PP_seconds": 285, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474574, "player": "Tyler Myers", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 168 }, { "player_id": 8476902, "player": "Esa Lindell", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 848, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 360 }, { "player_id": 8483425, "player": "Lian Bichsel", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 664, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 167 }, { "player_id": 8476889, "player": "Radek Faksa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 312, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 195 }, { "player_id": 8475794, "player": "Tyler Seguin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480036, "player": "Miro Heiskanen", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1296, "PP_seconds": 265, "SH_seconds": 263 }, { "player_id": 8481581, "player": "Thomas Harley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1410, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8484938, "player": "Arttu Hyry", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 529, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 252 }, { "player_id": 8478420, "player": "Mikko Rantanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1114, "PP_seconds": 275, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484829, "player": "Justin Hryckowian", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 601, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 62 }, { "player_id": 8473994, "player": "Jamie Benn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 647, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480878, "player": "Nils Lundkvist", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8482740, "player": "Wyatt Johnston", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1019, "PP_seconds": 280, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8479351, "player": "Sam Steel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 925, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8478449, "player": "Roope Hintz", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 975, "PP_seconds": 263, "SH_seconds": 5 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14789, "PP_seconds": 1455, "SH_seconds": 2124 }, "conditional_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional return role sensitivity", "return_player": { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8481641, "player": "Joel Kiviranta", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, "displaced_slot": { "player_id": 8476889, "player": "Radek Faksa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 312, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 195 }, "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8480840, "player": "Oskar B\u00e4ck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 541, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 286 }, { "player_id": 8476278, "player": "Colin Blackwell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 567, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 63 }, { "player_id": 8480027, "player": "Jason Robertson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 984, "PP_seconds": 285, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8474574, "player": "Tyler Myers", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 168 }, { "player_id": 8476902, "player": "Esa Lindell", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 848, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 360 }, { "player_id": 8483425, "player": "Lian Bichsel", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 664, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 167 }, { "player_id": 8481641, "player": "Joel Kiviranta", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 312, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 195 }, { "player_id": 8475794, "player": "Tyler Seguin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480036, "player": "Miro Heiskanen", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1296, "PP_seconds": 265, "SH_seconds": 263 }, { "player_id": 8481581, "player": "Thomas Harley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1410, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 99 }, { "player_id": 8484938, "player": "Arttu Hyry", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 529, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 252 }, { "player_id": 8478420, "player": "Mikko Rantanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1114, "PP_seconds": 275, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484829, "player": "Justin Hryckowian", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 601, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 62 }, { "player_id": 8473994, "player": "Jamie Benn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 647, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480878, "player": "Nils Lundkvist", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 7 }, { "player_id": 8482740, "player": "Wyatt Johnston", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1019, "PP_seconds": 280, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8479351, "player": "Sam Steel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 925, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8478449, "player": "Roope Hintz", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 975, "PP_seconds": 263, "SH_seconds": 5 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14789, "PP_seconds": 1455, "SH_seconds": 2124 }, "calculation": "Transfer identified observed same-position role seconds to returning player; no added team exposure or goal/assist double count. Bedard primary top-line/PP1 role supported; exact displaced center and all other returns analyst sensitivity, not confirmed coach decisions.", "previous_current_role_samples": [ { "event_id": 2026020020, "date": "2026-10-02", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020020/boxscore", "playerId": 8481641, "name": { "default": "J. Kiviranta" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:18", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020043, "date": "2026-10-05", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020043/boxscore", "playerId": 8481641, "name": { "default": "J. Kiviranta" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:37", "shifts": 15 } ] } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8480840, "name": { "default": "O. B\u00e4ck" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:47", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8476889, "name": { "default": "R. Faksa" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:27", "shifts": 11 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8473994, "name": { "default": "J. Benn" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:53", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8476278, "name": { "default": "C. Blackwell" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:30", "shifts": 11 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8479351, "name": { "default": "S. Steel" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:36", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8480027, "name": { "default": "J. Robertson" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:09", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8478449, "name": { "default": "R. Hintz" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:43", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8484938, "name": { "default": "A. Hyry" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:01", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8484829, "name": { "default": "J. Hryckowian" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:29", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8482740, "name": { "default": "W. Johnston" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:47", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8475794, "name": { "default": "T. Seguin" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:14", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8478420, "name": { "default": "M. Rantanen" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:09", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8480036, "name": { "default": "M. Heiskanen" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "30:24", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8480878, "name": { "default": "N. Lundkvist" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:27", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8483425, "name": { "default": "L. Bichsel" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:57", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8476902, "name": { "default": "E. Lindell" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:19", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8481581, "name": { "default": "T. Harley" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:35", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020077, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "DAL", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "playerId": 8474574, "name": { "default": "T. Myers" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:41", "shifts": 18 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.155609756097561, 3.011219512195122 ], "Primary": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020077/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Duchene surgery and three-month absence confirmed; all five regular games already omit him so no repeat full-player deduction. Faksa/Kiviranta expected available, not fresh losses; stale Lundkvist Out flag superseded by current actual play. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8473994, "player": "Jamie Benn", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8476278, "player": "Colin Blackwell", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8480840, "player": "Oskar B\u00e4ck", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8475168, "player": "Matt Duchene", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8476889, "player": "Radek Faksa", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8478449, "player": "Roope Hintz", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8484829, "player": "Justin Hryckowian", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8484938, "player": "Arttu Hyry", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8482740, "player": "Wyatt Johnston", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8481641, "player": "Joel Kiviranta", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8478420, "player": "Mikko Rantanen", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8480027, "player": "Jason Robertson", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8475794, "player": "Tyler Seguin", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8479351, "player": "Sam Steel", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8483425, "player": "Lian Bichsel", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8477335, "player": "Kyle Burroughs", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8478476, "player": "Kyle Capobianco", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8481581, "player": "Thomas Harley", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8480036, "player": "Miro Heiskanen", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8476902, "player": "Esa Lindell", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8480878, "player": "Nils Lundkvist", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8474574, "player": "Tyler Myers", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8479193, "player": "Casey DeSmith", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" }, { "team": "DAL", "player_id": 8479979, "player": "Jake Oettinger", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/DAL/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Dallas Stars", "abbreviation": "DAL", "player": "Matt Duchene", "player_id": "5161", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T16:46Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/9/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.262761+00:00" }, { "team": "Dallas Stars", "abbreviation": "DAL", "player": "Cameron Hughes", "player_id": "3942461", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T16:16Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/9/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.262761+00:00" }, { "team": "Dallas Stars", "abbreviation": "DAL", "player": "Harrison Scott", "player_id": "5206683", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T16:19Z" } ], "source": 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94, "shiftsPerGame": 18.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Sam Steel", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 4579, "timeOnIcePerGame": 915.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.71276 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4364, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 872.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Robertson", "otTimeOnIce": 96, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 96.0, "playerId": 8480027, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1194, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 238.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 96, "shiftsPerGame": 19.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jason Robertson", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 5558, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1111.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.89583 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5245, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1049.0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Heiskanen", "otTimeOnIce": 166, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 166.0, "playerId": 8480036, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1104, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 220.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 972, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 194.4, "shifts": 122, "shiftsPerGame": 24.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Miro Heiskanen", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 7321, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1464.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 60.00819 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2828, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 565.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "B\u00e4ck", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480840, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 869, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 173.8, "shifts": 78, "shiftsPerGame": 15.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Oskar B\u00e4ck", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 3698, "timeOnIcePerGame": 739.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.41025 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5018, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1003.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Lundkvist", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480878, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 6, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 156, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 31.2, "shifts": 112, "shiftsPerGame": 22.4, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nils Lundkvist", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 5180, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1036.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.25 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6054, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1210.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Harley", "otTimeOnIce": 134, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 134.0, "playerId": 8481581, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 381, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 76.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 622, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 124.4, "shifts": 118, "shiftsPerGame": 23.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Thomas Harley", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 7057, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1411.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 59.80508 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1090, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 545.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Kiviranta", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481641, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 8, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 157, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 78.5, "shifts": 29, "shiftsPerGame": 14.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Joel Kiviranta", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 1255, "timeOnIcePerGame": 627.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.27586 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4709, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 941.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Johnston", "otTimeOnIce": 135, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 135.0, "playerId": 8482740, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1132, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 226.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 150, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 30.0, "shifts": 98, "shiftsPerGame": 19.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Wyatt Johnston", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 5991, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1198.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 61.13265 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4503, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 900.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Bichsel", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483425, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 12, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.4, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 413, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.6, "shifts": 93, "shiftsPerGame": 18.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Lian Bichsel", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 4928, "timeOnIcePerGame": 985.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.98924 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3858, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 771.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Hryckowian", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484829, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 361, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 72.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 234, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 46.8, "shifts": 92, "shiftsPerGame": 18.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Justin Hryckowian", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 4453, "timeOnIcePerGame": 890.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.40217 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3569, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 713.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Hyry", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484938, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 666, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 133.2, "shifts": 90, "shiftsPerGame": 18.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Arttu Hyry", "teamAbbrevs": "DAL", "timeOnIce": 4235, "timeOnIcePerGame": 847.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.05555 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892498", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.155609756097561, 3.011219512195122 ], "Primary": [ 3.208566193533121, 2.97206982375596 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.170725, 2.865845 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8475168, "incumbent": "Matt Duchene", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-12T16:46Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8475168, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475168/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 52, "avgToi": "17:09", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.52381, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 6, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 30, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 13, "points": 82, "powerPlayGoals": 8, "powerPlayPoints": 27, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.197368, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 152, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 5, "avgToi": "16:36", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.645669, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 18, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -16, "points": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 6, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.043478, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 23, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 29, "avgToi": "16:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.521569, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 57, "goals": 16, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 45, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 14, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.179775, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 89, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "20:55", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.490566, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 7, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.222222, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480840, "player": "Oskar B\u00e4ck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 541, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 286 }, { "player_id": 8476278, "player": "Colin Blackwell", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 567, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 63 }, { "player_id": 8480027, "player": "Jason Robertson", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 984, "PP_seconds": 285, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476889, "player": "Radek Faksa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 312, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 195 }, { "player_id": 8475794, "player": "Tyler Seguin", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 784, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484938, "player": "Arttu Hyry", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 529, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 252 }, { "player_id": 8478420, "player": "Mikko Rantanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1114, "PP_seconds": 275, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484829, "player": "Justin Hryckowian", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 601, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 62 }, { "player_id": 8473994, "player": "Jamie Benn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 647, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482740, "player": "Wyatt Johnston", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1019, "PP_seconds": 280, "SH_seconds": 8 }, { "player_id": 8479351, "player": "Sam Steel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 925, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 189 }, { "player_id": 8478449, "player": "Roope Hintz", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 975, "PP_seconds": 263, "SH_seconds": 5 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Cameron Hughes", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T16:16Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Harrison Scott", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T16:19Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Luke Krys", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T16:18Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8480878, "incumbent": "Nils Lundkvist", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-04-29T18:37Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": 8480878, "player": "Nils Lundkvist", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 980, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 7 }, "history": [ { "player_id": 8480878, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480878/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 5, "avgToi": "15:01", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 39, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 52, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "16:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 52, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 12, "points": 11, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.065217, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 46, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "16:45", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "17:16", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8474574, "player": "Tyler Myers", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 593, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 168 }, { "player_id": 8476902, "player": "Esa Lindell", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 848, "PP_seconds": 11, "SH_seconds": 360 }, { "player_id": 8483425, "player": "Lian Bichsel", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 664, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 167 }, { "player_id": 8480036, "player": "Miro Heiskanen", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1296, "PP_seconds": 265, "SH_seconds": 263 }, { "player_id": 8481581, "player": "Thomas Harley", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1410, "PP_seconds": 26, "SH_seconds": 99 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars", "market": { "id": "401892498", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892498", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.566070+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.789770+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -270.0, "away_line_price": 220.0, "total": 5.5, "under_line": 5.5, "over_price": -135.0, "under_price": 114.0, "home_ml": -105.0, "away_ml": -115.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 5.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.14439024390243915, "combined": 6.166829268292683, "spread_buffer": 1.3556097560975608, "total_difference": 0.6668292682926831 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.14439024390243915, "combined": 6.166829268292683, "spread_buffer": 1.3556097560975608, "total_difference": 0.6668292682926831 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2364963697771607, "combined": 6.180636017289081, "spread_buffer": 1.2635036302228393, "total_difference": 0.6806360172890811 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2364963697771607, "combined": 6.180636017289081, "spread_buffer": 1.2635036302228393, "total_difference": 0.6806360172890811 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.3048799999999998, "combined": 6.03657, "spread_buffer": 1.1951200000000002, "total_difference": 0.5365700000000002 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.3048799999999998, "combined": 6.03657, "spread_buffer": 1.1951200000000002, "total_difference": 0.5365700000000002 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.3048799999999998, "combined": 6.03657, "spread_buffer": 1.1951200000000002, "total_difference": 0.5365700000000002 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.3048799999999998, "combined": 6.03657, "spread_buffer": 1.1951200000000002, "total_difference": 0.5365700000000002 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892499", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892499", "date": "2026-10-14T00:45Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1834", "fullName": "Bridgestone Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "37", "away_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "27", "home_name": "Nashville Predators", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.1520867208672088, 3.0473893405600725 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.1520867208672088, 3.0473893405600725 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.1520867208672088, 3.0473893405600725 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 7, "current_weight": 0.25925925925925924, "prior_rates": [ 3.231707317073171, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.5714285714285716, 2.5714285714285716 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.0121951219512195, 3.2804878048780486 ], "current_rates": [ 2.8, 2.8 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2378, 5.2378 ], "home": [ 0.9512100000000001, 4.95121 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.2442146305641724, 2.9261379445807747 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2442146305641724, 2.9261379445807747 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2442146305641724, 2.9261379445807747 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2378, 5.2378 ], "home": [ 0.9512100000000001, 4.95121 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54, "official_team_name": "Vegas Golden Knights" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.95121, "pa": 3.25609, "official_team_id": 18, "official_team_name": "Nashville Predators" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2378, 5.2378 ], "home": [ 0.9512100000000001, 4.95121 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.21951, "pa": 2.95121, "official_team_id": 54, "official_team_name": "Vegas Golden Knights" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.95121, "pa": 3.25609, "official_team_id": 18, "official_team_name": "Nashville Predators" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.2378, 5.2378 ], "home": [ 0.9512100000000001, 4.95121 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "VGK: Olofsson remains absent. October12 actual Coghlan replaces Wotherspoon, superseding older projected lines. Heinola alternative retained by observed prior opportunity; no new duplicate loss. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. NSH: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 7 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Bridgestone Arena; listed 2026-10-14T00:45Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892499", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Vegas Golden Knights", "home": "Nashville Predators", "start_et": "2026-10-13T20:45:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T00:45Z", "venue": { "id": "1834", "fullName": "Bridgestone Arena", "address": { "city": "Nashville", "state": "TN", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 8:45 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 8:45 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Vegas Golden Knights", "previous_game": { "id": "401892487", "date": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1835", "fullName": "Grand Casino Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Saint Paul", "state": "MN", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "37", "away_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "30", "home_name": "Minnesota Wild", "home_score": 4.0, "day": 20739.0 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Nashville Predators", "previous_game": { "id": "401892474", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1832", "fullName": "Canadian Tire Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Ottawa", "state": "ON", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "27", "away_name": "Nashville Predators", "away_score": 2.0, "home": "14", "home_name": "Ottawa Senators", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020101, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"evTimeOnIcePerGame": 985.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020089, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Andersson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MIN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478397, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 58, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 58.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Rasmus Andersson", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 1043, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1043.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.45833 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1211, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1211.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020089, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Theodore", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MIN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477447, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 116, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 116.0, "shTimeOnIce": 17, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 17.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Shea Theodore", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 1344, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1344.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.76 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 829, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 829.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020089, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Marner", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MIN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478483, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 461, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 461.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mitch Marner", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 1290, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1290.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 64.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 789, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 789.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020089, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Lauzon", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MIN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478468, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jeremy Lauzon", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 789, "timeOnIcePerGame": 789.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.41176 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 569, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 569.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-12", "gameId": 2026020089, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Gatcomb", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "MIN", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483553, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 14.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Marc Gatcomb", "teamAbbrev": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 583, "timeOnIcePerGame": 583.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.86666 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 918, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 741, "PP_seconds": 462, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 955, "PP_seconds": 59, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 807, "PP_seconds": 477, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1040, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 652, "PP_seconds": 460, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 728, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 981, "PP_seconds": 56, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 653, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 74, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 667, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 668, "PP_seconds": 465, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1310, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1211, "PP_seconds": 116, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 829, "PP_seconds": 461, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 789, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 569, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15289, "PP_seconds": 2730, "SH_seconds": 68 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8478403, "name": { "default": "J. Eichel" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:24", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8483553, "name": { "default": "M. Gatcomb" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:43", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8479353, "name": { "default": "B. Howden" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:18", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8484803, "name": { "default": "T. Connelly" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:32", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8475343, "name": { "default": "N. Dowd" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:38", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8481534, "name": { "default": "R. Lavoie" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:53", "shifts": 12 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8483890, "name": { "default": "B. Bowman" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:20", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8476881, "name": { "default": "T. Hertl" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:53", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8477964, "name": { "default": "I. Barbashev", "cs": "I. Barba\u0161ev", "fi": "I. Barbashov", "sk": "I. Barba\u0161ev" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:17", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8475913, "name": { "default": "M. Stone" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:03", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8476448, "name": { "default": "W. Karlsson" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:11", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8478483, "name": { "default": "M. Marner" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:30", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8475188, "name": { "default": "B. McNabb" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:37", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8478397, "name": { "default": "R. Andersson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:23", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8478468, "name": { "default": "J. Lauzon" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:09", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8478396, "name": { "default": "N. Hanifin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:04", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8477447, "name": { "default": "S. Theodore" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:24", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020089, "date": "2026-10-12", "stage": "regular", "team": "VGK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "playerId": 8479639, "name": { "default": "D. Coghlan" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:08", "shifts": 16 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.1520867208672088, 3.0473893405600725 ], "Primary": [ 3.2442146305641724, 2.9261379445807747 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020089/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Olofsson remains absent. October12 actual Coghlan replaces Wotherspoon, superseding older projected lines. Heinola alternative retained by observed prior opportunity; no new duplicate loss. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-12", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478109, "player": "Victor Olofsson", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8481572, "player": "Ville Heinola", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478450, "player": "Parker Wotherspoon", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8479394, "player": "Carter Hart", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" }, { "team": "VGK", "player_id": 8478499, "player": "Adin Hill", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/VGK/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Vegas 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"skaterFullName": "Raphael Lavoie", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 514, "timeOnIcePerGame": 514.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.83333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3884, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 776.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Heinola", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481572, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 336, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 67.2, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 10, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "shifts": 96, "shiftsPerGame": 19.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ville Heinola", "teamAbbrevs": "WPG", "timeOnIce": 4230, "timeOnIcePerGame": 846.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.0625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 29576, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 603.59183, "gamesPlayed": 49, "lastName": "Gatcomb", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483553, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 80, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.63265, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 683, "shiftsPerGame": 13.93877, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Marc Gatcomb", "teamAbbrevs": "NYI", "timeOnIce": 29656, "timeOnIcePerGame": 605.22448, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.4202 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 41563, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 769.68518, "gamesPlayed": 54, "lastName": "Bowman", "otTimeOnIce": 8, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.5, "playerId": 8483890, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 4201, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 77.79629, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 21, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.38888, "shifts": 973, "shiftsPerGame": 18.01851, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Braeden Bowman", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 45785, "timeOnIcePerGame": 847.87037, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.05549 } ], "20262027": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 7038, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1005.42857, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "McNabb", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8475188, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 818, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 116.85714, "shifts": 167, "shiftsPerGame": 23.85714, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brayden McNabb", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 7856, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1122.28571, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.04191 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4124, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 589.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Dowd", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8475343, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 25, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 612, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 87.42857, "shifts": 115, "shiftsPerGame": 16.42857, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nic Dowd", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 4761, "timeOnIcePerGame": 680.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.4 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5973, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 853.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Stone", "otTimeOnIce": 197, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 98.5, "playerId": 8475913, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1982, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 283.14285, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 222, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 31.71428, "shifts": 148, "shiftsPerGame": 21.14285, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mark Stone", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 8177, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1168.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.25 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6478, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 925.42857, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Karlsson", "otTimeOnIce": 140, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 70.0, "playerId": 8476448, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 591, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 580, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.85714, "shifts": 150, "shiftsPerGame": 21.42857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "William Karlsson", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 7649, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1092.71428, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.99333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4802, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 686.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Hertl", "otTimeOnIce": 36, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 18.0, "playerId": 8476881, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 2078, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 296.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 7, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "shifts": 123, "shiftsPerGame": 17.57142, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tomas Hertl", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 6887, "timeOnIcePerGame": 983.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.99186 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7755, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1107.85714, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Theodore", "otTimeOnIce": 177, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 88.5, "playerId": 8477447, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1098, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 156.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 284, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 40.57142, "shifts": 180, "shiftsPerGame": 25.71428, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Shea Theodore", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 9137, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1305.28571, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.76111 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6494, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 927.71428, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Barbashev", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8477964, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 285, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 40.71428, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 5, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.71428, "shifts": 132, "shiftsPerGame": 18.85714, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ivan Barbashev", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 6784, "timeOnIcePerGame": 969.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.39393 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2659, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 664.75, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Olofsson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478109, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 489, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 122.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 5, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.25, "shifts": 70, "shiftsPerGame": 17.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Victor Olofsson", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 3153, "timeOnIcePerGame": 788.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.04285 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7803, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1114.71428, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Hanifin", "otTimeOnIce": 184, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 92.0, "playerId": 8478396, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 198, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 28.28571, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 590, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.28571, "shifts": 178, "shiftsPerGame": 25.42857, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Noah Hanifin", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 8591, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1227.28571, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.26404 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 7001, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1000.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Andersson", "otTimeOnIce": 93, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 46.5, "playerId": 8478397, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 616, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 88.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 42, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.0, "shifts": 169, "shiftsPerGame": 24.14285, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Rasmus Andersson", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 7659, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1094.14285, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.31952 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6459, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 922.71428, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Eichel", "otTimeOnIce": 237, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 118.5, "playerId": 8478403, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 2152, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 307.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 349, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 49.85714, "shifts": 149, "shiftsPerGame": 21.28571, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jack Eichel", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 8960, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1280.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 60.13422 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5881, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 980.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Wotherspoon", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8478450, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 47, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 7.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 646, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 107.66666, "shifts": 137, "shiftsPerGame": 22.83333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Parker Wotherspoon", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 6574, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1095.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.9854 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6063, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 866.14285, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Lauzon", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8478468, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 607, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 86.71428, "shifts": 152, "shiftsPerGame": 21.71428, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jeremy Lauzon", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 6684, "timeOnIcePerGame": 954.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.97368 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6359, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 908.42857, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Marner", "otTimeOnIce": 174, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 87.0, "playerId": 8478483, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 2048, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 292.57142, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 480, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 68.57142, "shifts": 151, "shiftsPerGame": 21.57142, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mitch Marner", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 8887, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1269.57142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 58.8543 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6183, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 883.28571, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Howden", "otTimeOnIce": 68, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 34.0, "playerId": 8479353, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 17, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 482, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 68.85714, "shifts": 140, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brett Howden", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 6682, "timeOnIcePerGame": 954.57142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.72857 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 728, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 728.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Coghlan", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479639, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Coghlan", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 728, "timeOnIcePerGame": 728.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1709, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 569.66666, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Lavoie", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481534, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 35, "shiftsPerGame": 11.66666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Raphael Lavoie", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 1709, "timeOnIcePerGame": 569.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.82857 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3972, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 567.42857, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Gatcomb", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483553, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 24, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.42857, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 28, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.0, "shifts": 102, "shiftsPerGame": 14.57142, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Marc Gatcomb", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 4024, "timeOnIcePerGame": 574.85714, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.45098 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4662, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 666.0, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Bowman", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483890, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 637, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 91.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 68, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.71428, "shifts": 120, "shiftsPerGame": 17.14285, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Braeden Bowman", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 5367, "timeOnIcePerGame": 766.71428, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.725 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4255, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 607.85714, "gamesPlayed": 7, "lastName": "Connelly", "otTimeOnIce": 80, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 40.0, "playerId": 8484803, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1378, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 196.85714, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 13, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.85714, "shifts": 113, "shiftsPerGame": 16.14285, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Trevor Connelly", "teamAbbrevs": "VGK", "timeOnIce": 5646, "timeOnIcePerGame": 806.57142, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.9646 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892499", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.1520867208672088, 3.0473893405600725 ], "Primary": [ 3.2442146305641724, 2.9261379445807747 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Kai Uchacz", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:44Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8478109, "incumbent": "Victor Olofsson", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T22:04Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478109, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478109/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "14:30", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.142857, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 56, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": 17, "points": 29, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.137615, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 109, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "14:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 9, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.142857, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 14, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } }, { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "13:20", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.375, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 60, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 25, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 7, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.098214, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 112, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "14:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 18, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.057143, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 35, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "13:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.6, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.444444, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8479353, "player": "Brett Howden", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 918, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475913, "player": "Mark Stone", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 741, "PP_seconds": 462, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476448, "player": "William Karlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 955, "PP_seconds": 59, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8478403, "player": "Jack Eichel", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 807, "PP_seconds": 477, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484803, "player": "Trevor Connelly", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 652, "PP_seconds": 460, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477964, "player": "Ivan Barbashev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 981, "PP_seconds": 56, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481534, "player": "Raphael Lavoie", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 653, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483890, "player": "Braeden Bowman", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 786, "PP_seconds": 74, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475343, "player": "Nic Dowd", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 667, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8476881, "player": "Tomas Hertl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 668, "PP_seconds": 465, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478483, "player": "Mitch Marner", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 829, "PP_seconds": 461, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483553, "player": "Marc Gatcomb", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 569, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Lukas Cormier", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T15:35Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Alex Pietrangelo", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2025-07-01T00:43Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8478450, "incumbent": "Parker Wotherspoon", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T23:37Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478450, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478450/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "18:02", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 55, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": -10, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.022727, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 44, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Bruins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Boston Bruins", "fr": "Bruins de Boston" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Boston", "fr": "de Boston" } }, { "assists": 27, "avgToi": "20:10", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 55, "plusMinus": 17, "points": 30, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.042857, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 70, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "22:06", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Penguins" }, "teamName": { "default": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "fr": "Penguins de Pittsburgh" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Pittsburgh", "fr": "de Pittsburgh" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:16", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Golden Knights" }, "teamName": { "default": "Vegas Golden Knights", "fr": "Golden Knights de Vegas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Vegas", "fr": "de Vegas" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8475188, "player": "Brayden McNabb", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1040, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8479639, "player": "Dylan Coghlan", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 728, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478396, "player": "Noah Hanifin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1310, "PP_seconds": 14, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478397, "player": "Rasmus Andersson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 58, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477447, "player": "Shea Theodore", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1211, "PP_seconds": 116, "SH_seconds": 17 }, { "player_id": 8478468, "player": "Jeremy Lauzon", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 789, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020101, "team": "NSH", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 1164, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1164.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Wilsby", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 82, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 82.0, "playerId": 8482482, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 60, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 60.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Wilsby", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1224, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1224.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.07692 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1117, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1117.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Struble", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481593, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 12, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 12.0, "shTimeOnIce": 18, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 18.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jayden Struble", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1147, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1147.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.86956 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 938, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 938.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Drury", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 89, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 89.0, "playerId": 8480835, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "shTimeOnIce": 209, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 209.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jack Drury", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1148, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1148.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.83333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 860, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 860.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Perbix", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 129, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 129.0, "playerId": 8480246, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 6, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.0, "shTimeOnIce": 236, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 236.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nick Perbix", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1102, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1102.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.91666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 787, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 787.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Marchessault", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 39, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 39.0, "playerId": 8476539, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 286, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 286.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jonathan Marchessault", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1073, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1073.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.65 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 730, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 730.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Wood", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 57, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 57.0, "playerId": 8484241, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 132, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 132.0, "shTimeOnIce": 60, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 60.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Wood", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 922, "timeOnIcePerGame": 922.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.90909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 842, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 842.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Stamkos", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 35, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 35.0, "playerId": 8474564, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 294, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 294.0, "shTimeOnIce": 5, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Steven Stamkos", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1141, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1141.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.60869 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 669, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 669.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Hoglander", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481535, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 84, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nils Hoglander", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 753, "timeOnIcePerGame": 753.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.0625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 821, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 821.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Edstrom", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481726, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 10, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 10.0, "shTimeOnIce": 6, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Edstrom", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 837, "timeOnIcePerGame": 837.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.23529 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1070, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1070.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Josi", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 124, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 124.0, "playerId": 8474600, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 295, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 295.0, "shTimeOnIce": 94, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 94.0, "shifts": 31, "shiftsPerGame": 31.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Roman Josi", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1459, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1459.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.06451 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1008, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1008.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Hague", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 47, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 47.0, "playerId": 8479980, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 12, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 12.0, "shTimeOnIce": 114, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 114.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nicolas Hague", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1134, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1134.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 455, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 455.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Colton", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479525, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 47, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 47.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 15, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ross Colton", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 502, "timeOnIcePerGame": 502.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 33.46666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 885, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 885.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Skjei", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 121, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 121.0, "playerId": 8476869, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 146, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 146.0, "shTimeOnIce": 234, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 234.0, "shifts": 28, "shiftsPerGame": 28.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brady Skjei", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1265, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1265.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.17857 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 848, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 848.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "O'Reilly", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 126, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 126.0, "playerId": 8475158, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 303, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 303.0, "shTimeOnIce": 176, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 176.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ryan O'Reilly", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1327, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1327.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.14814 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 623, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 623.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Kerfoot", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 28, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 28.0, "playerId": 8477021, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 137, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 137.0, "shTimeOnIce": 130, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 130.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alexander Kerfoot", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 890, "timeOnIcePerGame": 890.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.45454 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 634, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 634.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Schaefer", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483513, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 9, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 12, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Reid Schaefer", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 643, "timeOnIcePerGame": 643.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.58333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 538, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 538.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Pinchuk", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8486189, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 132, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 132.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Vitali Pinchuk", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 670, "timeOnIcePerGame": 670.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.875 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 947, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 947.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020076, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Forsberg", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "OTT", "otTimeOnIce": 92, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 92.0, "playerId": 8476887, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 284, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 284.0, "shTimeOnIce": 5, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Filip Forsberg", "teamAbbrev": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1236, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1236.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.77777 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8482482, "player": "Adam Wilsby", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1164, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 60 }, { "player_id": 8481593, "player": "Jayden Struble", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1117, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 18 }, { "player_id": 8480835, "player": "Jack Drury", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 938, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 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Josi" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:19", "shifts": 31 }, { "event_id": 2026020076, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "NSH", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "playerId": 8476869, "name": { "default": "B. 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Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020076/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. 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"player_id": 8480246, "player": "Nick Perbix", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8476869, "player": "Brady Skjei", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8481593, "player": "Jayden Struble", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8482806, "player": "William Trudeau", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8482482, "player": "Adam Wilsby", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8481020, "player": "Justus Annunen", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8483575, "player": "Matt Murray", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" }, { "team": "NSH", "player_id": 8477424, "player": "Juuse Saros", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/NSH/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Nashville Predators", "abbreviation": "NSH", "player": "Mavrik Bourque", "player_id": "4697413", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T12:50Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/27/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.306043+00:00" }, { "team": "Nashville Predators", "abbreviation": "NSH", "player": "William Trudeau", "player_id": "5103808", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T18:20Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/27/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.306043+00:00" }, { "team": "Nashville 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"shiftsPerGame": 16.75, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jayden Struble", "teamAbbrevs": "MTL,NSH", "timeOnIce": 3323, "timeOnIcePerGame": 830.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.59701 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3651, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 730.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Edstrom", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481726, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 18, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.6, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 127, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 25.4, "shifts": 84, "shiftsPerGame": 16.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Edstrom", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 3796, "timeOnIcePerGame": 759.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.19047 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 735, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 367.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Ahcan", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482072, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 92, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 46.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 9.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jack Ahcan", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 827, "timeOnIcePerGame": 413.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.52631 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3366, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 841.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Bourque", "otTimeOnIce": 94, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 94.0, "playerId": 8482145, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 318, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 96, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 24.0, "shifts": 77, "shiftsPerGame": 19.25, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Mavrik Bourque", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 3780, "timeOnIcePerGame": 945.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.0909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4724, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 944.8, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Wilsby", "otTimeOnIce": 120, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 60.0, "playerId": 8482482, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 484, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 96.8, "shifts": 104, "shiftsPerGame": 20.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adam Wilsby", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 5208, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1041.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.07692 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1652, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 550.66666, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Trudeau", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482806, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 34, "shiftsPerGame": 11.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "William Trudeau", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1652, "timeOnIcePerGame": 550.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.58823 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1872, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 624.0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Schaefer", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483513, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 9, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 33, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 11.0, "shifts": 39, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Reid Schaefer", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 1914, "timeOnIcePerGame": 638.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.07692 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3416, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 683.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Wood", "otTimeOnIce": 164, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 82.0, "playerId": 8484241, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 859, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 171.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 478, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 95.6, "shifts": 98, "shiftsPerGame": 19.6, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Matthew Wood", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 4753, "timeOnIcePerGame": 950.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 538, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 538.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Pinchuk", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8486189, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 132, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 132.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Vitali Pinchuk", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH", "timeOnIce": 670, "timeOnIcePerGame": 670.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.875 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892499", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.1520867208672088, 3.0473893405600725 ], "Primary": [ 3.2442146305641724, 2.9261379445807747 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.2378, 2.95121 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8482145, "incumbent": "Mavrik Bourque", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T12:50Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482145, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482145/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "12:41", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.462644, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 73, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 25, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.1375, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 80, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 21, "avgToi": "15:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.45339, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 41, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 5, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.136054, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 147, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "16:48", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.416667, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.071429, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 14, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Stars" }, "teamName": { "default": "Dallas Stars", "fr": "Stars de Dallas" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Dallas", "fr": "de Dallas" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "15:45", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.4375, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Predators" }, "teamName": { "default": "Nashville Predators", "fr": "Predators de Nashville" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Nashville", "fr": "de Nashville" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480835, "player": "Jack Drury", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 938, "PP_seconds": 1, "SH_seconds": 209 }, { "player_id": 8476539, "player": "Jonathan Marchessault", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 787, "PP_seconds": 286, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484241, "player": "Matthew Wood", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 730, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 60 }, { "player_id": 8474564, "player": "Steven Stamkos", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 294, "SH_seconds": 5 }, { "player_id": 8481535, "player": "Nils Hoglander", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 669, "PP_seconds": 84, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481726, "player": "Adam Edstrom", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 821, "PP_seconds": 10, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8479525, "player": "Ross Colton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 455, "PP_seconds": 47, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475158, "player": "Ryan O'Reilly", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 848, "PP_seconds": 303, "SH_seconds": 176 }, { "player_id": 8477021, "player": "Alexander Kerfoot", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 623, "PP_seconds": 137, "SH_seconds": 130 }, { "player_id": 8483513, "player": "Reid Schaefer", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 634, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486189, "player": "Vitali Pinchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 538, "PP_seconds": 132, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476887, "player": "Filip Forsberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 947, "PP_seconds": 284, "SH_seconds": 5 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8482806, "incumbent": "William Trudeau", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-09T18:20Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482806, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482806/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 14, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 68, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 54, "plusMinus": 14, "points": 19, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 12, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 62, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 54, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 20, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "9:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 2, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Predators" }, "teamName": { "default": "Nashville Predators", "fr": "Predators de Nashville" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Nashville", "fr": "de Nashville" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482482, "player": "Adam Wilsby", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1164, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 60 }, { "player_id": 8481593, "player": "Jayden Struble", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1117, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 18 }, { "player_id": 8480246, "player": "Nick Perbix", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 860, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 236 }, { "player_id": 8474600, "player": "Roman Josi", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1070, "PP_seconds": 295, "SH_seconds": 94 }, { "player_id": 8479980, "player": "Nicolas Hague", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1008, "PP_seconds": 12, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8476869, "player": "Brady Skjei", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 885, "PP_seconds": 146, "SH_seconds": 234 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators", "market": { "id": "401892499", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892499", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.566070+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.766078+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -230.0, "away_line_price": 190.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 110.0, "under_price": -130.0, "home_ml": 110.0, "away_ml": -130.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.10469738030713627, "combined": 6.199476061427282, "spread_buffer": 1.3953026196928637, "total_difference": -0.3005239385727183 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.10469738030713627, "combined": 6.199476061427282, "spread_buffer": 1.3953026196928637, "total_difference": -0.3005239385727183 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.31807668598339767, "combined": 6.170352575144947, "spread_buffer": 1.1819233140166023, "total_difference": -0.32964742485505294 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.31807668598339767, "combined": 6.170352575144947, "spread_buffer": 1.1819233140166023, "total_difference": -0.32964742485505294 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2865899999999999, "combined": 6.18901, "spread_buffer": 1.21341, "total_difference": -0.3109900000000003 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2865899999999999, "combined": 6.18901, "spread_buffer": 1.21341, "total_difference": -0.3109900000000003 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2865899999999999, "combined": 6.18901, "spread_buffer": 1.21341, "total_difference": -0.3109900000000003 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2865899999999999, "combined": 6.18901, "spread_buffer": 1.21341, "total_difference": -0.3109900000000003 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892500", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892500", "date": "2026-10-14T01:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "3093", "fullName": "Delta Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Salt Lake City", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "129764", "home_name": "Utah Mammoth", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.88545966228893, 3.5287054409005627 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.88545966228893, 3.5287054409005627 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.88545966228893, 3.5287054409005627 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.0853658536585367, 3.6463414634146343 ], "current_rates": [ 3.3333333333333335, 3.0 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.268292682926829, 2.926829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6666666666666665, 2.5 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "home": [ 1.432925, 5.432925 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.9850424607870836, 3.5511455603500046 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.9850424607870836, 3.5511455603500046 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.9850424607870836, 3.5511455603500046 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "home": [ 1.432925, 5.432925 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. 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No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.07317, "pa": 3.59756, "official_team_id": 10, "official_team_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 2.92682, "official_team_id": 68, "official_team_name": "Utah Mammoth" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9999950000000002, 4.999995 ], "home": [ 1.432925, 5.432925 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "TOR: Tanev IR after partial October10 exposure; Rifai recalled. Tavares likely return after family absence; explicit center-slot and defense-slot branches preserve exposure. Recent-reference new availability branches: Chris Tanev. UTA: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Delta Center; listed 2026-10-14T01:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892500", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "home": "Utah Mammoth", "start_et": "2026-10-13T21:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T01:00Z", "venue": { "id": "3093", "fullName": "Delta Center", "address": { "city": "Salt Lake City", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 9:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 9:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "previous_game": { "id": "401892478", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "892", "fullName": "Ball Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Denver", "state": "CO", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "21", "away_name": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "away_score": 6.0, "home": "17", "home_name": "Colorado Avalanche", "home_score": 3.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Utah Mammoth", "previous_game": { "id": "401892472", "date": "2026-10-10T23:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1848", "fullName": "KeyBank Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Buffalo", "state": "NY", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "129764", "away_name": "Utah Mammoth", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "2", "home_name": "Buffalo Sabres", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20736.958333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020102, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"evTimeOnIcePerGame": 136.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020080, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Tanev", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "COL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475690, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 73, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 73.0, "shifts": 5, "shiftsPerGame": 5.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Chris Tanev", "teamAbbrev": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 209, "timeOnIcePerGame": 209.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.8 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 910, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 910.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020080, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Raddysh", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "COL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478178, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 245, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 245.0, "shTimeOnIce": 118, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 118.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Darren Raddysh", "teamAbbrev": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 1273, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1273.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.86363 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 565, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 565.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020080, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Blueger", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "COL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476927, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 8, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.0, "shTimeOnIce": 266, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 266.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Teddy Blueger", "teamAbbrev": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 839, "timeOnIcePerGame": 839.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.95 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 732, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 732.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020080, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Sissons", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "COL", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476925, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 9, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.0, "shTimeOnIce": 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"Troy Stecher", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 768, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 345 }, { "player_id": 8480870, "player": "Bo Groulx", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 503, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8476853, "player": "Morgan Rielly", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1004, "PP_seconds": 60, "SH_seconds": 64 }, { "player_id": 8477426, "player": "Nick Paul", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 49, "SH_seconds": 243 }, { "player_id": 8475171, "player": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 734, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 131 }, { "player_id": 8478458, "player": "Jack Roslovic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 78, "SH_seconds": 1 }, { "player_id": 8476931, "player": "Jake McCabe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 457 }, { "player_id": 8479520, "player": "Brandon Duhaime", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 464, "PP_seconds": 15, "SH_seconds": 179 }, { "player_id": 8480893, "player": "Kirill Marchenko", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 797, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486067, "player": "Gavin McKenna", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 677, "PP_seconds": 244, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477939, "player": "William Nylander", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 940, "PP_seconds": 251, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483565, "player": "Nick Blankenburg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 917, "PP_seconds": 54, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475690, "player": "Chris Tanev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 136, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 73 }, { "player_id": 8478178, "player": "Darren Raddysh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 910, "PP_seconds": 245, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8476927, "player": "Teddy Blueger", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 266 }, { "player_id": 8476925, "player": "Colton Sissons", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 732, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 269 }, { "player_id": 8479318, "player": "Auston Matthews", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 244, "SH_seconds": 147 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13540, "PP_seconds": 1505, "SH_seconds": 2360 }, "conditional_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional absence and redistribution", "status_source": { "team": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "abbreviation": "TOR", "player": "Chris Tanev", "player_id": "5592", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T21:20Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/21/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.666568+00:00" }, "incumbent": { "player_id": 8475690, "player": "Chris Tanev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 136, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 73 }, "replacement_ids": [ 8479442, 8476853, 8475171, 8476931, 8483565, 8478178 ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8484158, "player": "Easton Cowan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 910, "PP_seconds": 32, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8479442, "player": "Troy Stecher", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 787.7220543806646, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 367.58744394618833 }, { "player_id": 8480870, "player": "Bo Groulx", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 503, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8476853, "player": "Morgan Rielly", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1029.7824773413897, "PP_seconds": 60.0, "SH_seconds": 68.19013452914798 }, { "player_id": 8477426, "player": "Nick Paul", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 49, "SH_seconds": 243 }, { "player_id": 8475171, "player": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 752.8489425981874, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 139.57668161434978 }, { "player_id": 8478458, "player": "Jack Roslovic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 78, "SH_seconds": 1 }, { "player_id": 8476931, "player": "Jake McCabe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 987.7296072507553, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 486.9201793721973 }, { "player_id": 8479520, "player": "Brandon Duhaime", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 464, "PP_seconds": 15, "SH_seconds": 179 }, { "player_id": 8480893, "player": "Kirill Marchenko", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 797, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486067, "player": "Gavin McKenna", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 677, "PP_seconds": 244, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477939, "player": "William Nylander", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 940, "PP_seconds": 251, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483565, "player": "Nick Blankenburg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 940.5483383685801, "PP_seconds": 54.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8478178, "player": "Darren Raddysh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 933.3685800604229, "PP_seconds": 245.0, "SH_seconds": 125.7255605381166 }, { "player_id": 8476927, "player": "Teddy Blueger", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 266 }, { "player_id": 8476925, "player": "Colton Sissons", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 732, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 269 }, { "player_id": 8479318, "player": "Auston Matthews", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 244, "SH_seconds": 147 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13540.0, "PP_seconds": 1505.0, "SH_seconds": 2360.0 }, "calculation": "Reallocate missing observed EV/PP/SH seconds among demonstrated same-position-group reference skaters in proportion to each strength exposure. Explicit shortened-bench sensitivity; final dressing replacement and PP-unit labels not invented.", "unassigned_dressing_slot": "Current reserve choice unconfirmed; no independent scoring contribution assumed." }, { "scenario": "Conditional return role sensitivity", "return_player": { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8475166, "player": "John Tavares", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, "displaced_slot": { "player_id": 8479520, "player": "Brandon Duhaime", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 464, "PP_seconds": 15, "SH_seconds": 179 }, "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8484158, "player": "Easton Cowan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 910, "PP_seconds": 32, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8479442, "player": "Troy Stecher", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 768, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 345 }, { "player_id": 8480870, "player": "Bo Groulx", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 503, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8476853, "player": "Morgan Rielly", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1004, "PP_seconds": 60, "SH_seconds": 64 }, { "player_id": 8477426, "player": "Nick Paul", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 49, "SH_seconds": 243 }, { "player_id": 8475171, "player": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 734, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 131 }, { "player_id": 8478458, "player": "Jack Roslovic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 78, "SH_seconds": 1 }, { "player_id": 8476931, "player": "Jake McCabe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 457 }, { "player_id": 8475166, "player": "John Tavares", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 464, "PP_seconds": 15, "SH_seconds": 179 }, { "player_id": 8480893, "player": "Kirill Marchenko", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 797, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486067, "player": "Gavin McKenna", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 677, "PP_seconds": 244, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477939, "player": "William Nylander", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 940, "PP_seconds": 251, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483565, "player": "Nick Blankenburg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 917, "PP_seconds": 54, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475690, "player": "Chris Tanev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 136, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 73 }, { "player_id": 8478178, "player": "Darren Raddysh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 910, "PP_seconds": 245, "SH_seconds": 118 }, { "player_id": 8476927, "player": "Teddy Blueger", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 266 }, { "player_id": 8476925, "player": "Colton Sissons", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 732, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 269 }, { "player_id": 8479318, "player": "Auston Matthews", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 244, "SH_seconds": 147 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 13540, "PP_seconds": 1505, "SH_seconds": 2360 }, "calculation": "Transfer identified observed same-position role seconds to returning player; no added team exposure or goal/assist double count. Bedard primary top-line/PP1 role supported; exact displaced center and all other returns analyst sensitivity, not confirmed coach decisions.", "previous_current_role_samples": [ { "event_id": 2026020002, "date": "2026-09-29", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020002/boxscore", "playerId": 8475166, "name": { "default": "J. Tavares" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:36", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020044, "date": "2026-10-06", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020044/boxscore", "playerId": 8475166, "name": { "default": "J. Tavares" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 6, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:46", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020008, "date": "2026-09-30", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020008/boxscore", "playerId": 8475166, "name": { "default": "J. Tavares" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:58", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020023, "date": "2026-10-03", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020023/boxscore", "playerId": 8475166, "name": { "default": "J. Tavares" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:03", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020065, "date": "2026-10-08", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020065/boxscore", "playerId": 8475166, "name": { "default": "J. Tavares" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:26", "shifts": 20 } ] } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8476925, "name": { "default": "C. Sissons" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:50", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8477426, "name": { "default": "N. Paul" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:15", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8479520, "name": { "default": "B. Duhaime" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:58", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8480870, "name": { "default": "B. Groulx" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:05", "shifts": 11 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8479318, "name": { "default": "A. Matthews" }, "position": "C", "goals": 2, "assists": 2, "points": 4, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "22:06", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8484158, "name": { "default": "E. Cowan" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:07", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8476927, "name": { "default": "T. Blueger", "cs": "T. Blugers", "sk": "T. Blugers" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:59", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8480893, "name": { "default": "K. Marchenko", "cs": "K. Mar\u010denko", "fi": "K. Martshenko", "sk": "K. Mar\u010denko" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:53", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8477939, "name": { "default": "W. Nylander" }, "position": "R", "goals": 2, "assists": 3, "points": 5, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "19:51", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8486067, "name": { "default": "G. McKenna" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:21", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8478458, "name": { "default": "J. Roslovic" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:21", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8483565, "name": { "default": "N. Blankenburg" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:11", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8475690, "name": { "default": "C. Tanev" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "03:29", "shifts": 5 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8476931, "name": { "default": "J. McCabe" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:40", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8479442, "name": { "default": "T. Stecher" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:33", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8478178, "name": { "default": "D. Raddysh" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:13", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8476853, "name": { "default": "M. Rielly" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:48", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020080, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "TOR", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "playerId": 8475171, "name": { "default": "O. Ekman-Larsson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:25", "shifts": 22 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.88545966228893, 3.5287054409005627 ], "Primary": [ 2.9850424607870836, 3.5511455603500046 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020080/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Tanev IR after partial October10 exposure; Rifai recalled. Tavares likely return after family absence; explicit center-slot and defense-slot branches preserve exposure. Recent-reference new availability branches: Chris Tanev.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8476927, "player": "Teddy Blueger", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8484158, "player": "Easton Cowan", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8479520, "player": "Brandon Duhaime", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8480870, "player": "Bo Groulx", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8479772, "player": "Zack MacEwen", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8480893, "player": "Kirill Marchenko", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8479318, "player": "Auston Matthews", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8486067, "player": "Gavin McKenna", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8477939, "player": "William Nylander", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8477426, "player": "Nick Paul", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8478458, "player": "Jack Roslovic", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8476925, "player": "Colton Sissons", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8475166, "player": "John Tavares", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8477425, "player": "Miles Wood", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8483565, "player": "Nick Blankenburg", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8475171, "player": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8476931, "player": "Jake McCabe", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8478178, "player": "Darren Raddysh", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8476853, "player": "Morgan Rielly", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8483546, "player": "Marshall Rifai", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8479442, "player": "Troy Stecher", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8475690, "player": "Chris Tanev", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8475683, "player": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" }, { "team": "TOR", "player_id": 8476932, "player": "Anthony Stolarz", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/TOR/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "abbreviation": "TOR", "player": "Zack MacEwen", "player_id": "4063569", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-07-01T22:34Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/21/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.666568+00:00" }, { "team": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "abbreviation": "TOR", "player": "Chris Tanev", "player_id": "5592", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T21:20Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/21/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.666568+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475166, 8475171, 8475683, 8475690, 8476853, 8476925, 8476927, 8476931, 8476932, 8477425, 8477426, 8477939, 8478178, 8478458, 8479318, 8479442, 8479520, 8479772, 8480870, 8480893, 8483546, 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8.66666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Zack MacEwen", "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "timeOnIce": 1140, "timeOnIcePerGame": 380.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.84615 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 9685, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 745.0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "lastName": "Groulx", "otTimeOnIce": 92, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 23.0, "playerId": 8480870, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 266, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 20.46153, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 2289, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 176.07692, "shifts": 260, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Bo Groulx", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 12240, "timeOnIcePerGame": 941.53846, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.07692 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 72360, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 952.10526, "gamesPlayed": 76, "lastName": "Marchenko", "otTimeOnIce": 2024, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 92.0, "playerId": 8480893, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 13760, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 181.05263, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 257, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.38157, "shifts": 1572, "shiftsPerGame": 20.68421, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kirill Marchenko", "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "timeOnIce": 86377, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1136.53947, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.9472 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 580, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 580.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Rifai", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483546, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 14, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Marshall Rifai", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 580, "timeOnIcePerGame": 580.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.42857 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 51448, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 843.40983, "gamesPlayed": 61, "lastName": "Blankenburg", "otTimeOnIce": 354, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 25.28571, "playerId": 8483565, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 5191, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 85.09836, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 4838, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.31147, "shifts": 1299, "shiftsPerGame": 21.29508, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nick Blankenburg", "teamAbbrevs": "NSH,COL", "timeOnIce": 61477, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1007.81967, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.3264 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 52087, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 789.19696, "gamesPlayed": 66, "lastName": "Cowan", "otTimeOnIce": 475, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 22.61904, "playerId": 8484158, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 6162, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 93.36363, "seasonId": 20252026, "shTimeOnIce": 7, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.10606, "shifts": 1168, "shiftsPerGame": 17.69696, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Easton Cowan", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 58256, "timeOnIcePerGame": 882.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.87671 } ], "20262027": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 4088, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 817.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Tavares", "otTimeOnIce": 162, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 81.0, "playerId": 8475166, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1056, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 211.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 5, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "shifts": 98, "shiftsPerGame": 19.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "John Tavares", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 5149, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1029.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.54081 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5215, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 869.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Ekman-Larsson", "otTimeOnIce": 16, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 8.0, "playerId": 8475171, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 35, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 629, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 104.83333, "shifts": 145, "shiftsPerGame": 24.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 5879, "timeOnIcePerGame": 979.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.54482 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4880, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 813.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Tanev", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8475690, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 18, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1165, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 194.16666, "shifts": 145, "shiftsPerGame": 24.16666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Chris Tanev", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 6063, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1010.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.81379 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6402, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1067.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Rielly", "otTimeOnIce": 168, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 84.0, "playerId": 8476853, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 498, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 83.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 306, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 51.0, "shifts": 154, "shiftsPerGame": 25.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Morgan Rielly", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 7206, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1201.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.7922 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4110, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 685.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Sissons", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476925, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 9, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1101, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 183.5, "shifts": 121, "shiftsPerGame": 20.16666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Colton Sissons", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 5220, "timeOnIcePerGame": 870.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.14049 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2983, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 497.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Blueger", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476927, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 9, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1064, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 177.33333, "shifts": 93, "shiftsPerGame": 15.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Teddy Blueger", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 4056, "timeOnIcePerGame": 676.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.6129 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5479, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 913.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "McCabe", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476931, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 29, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.83333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1505, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 250.83333, "shifts": 155, "shiftsPerGame": 25.83333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jake McCabe", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 7013, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1168.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.24516 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4291, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 715.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Paul", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8477426, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 526, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 87.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 948, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 158.0, "shifts": 123, "shiftsPerGame": 20.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nick Paul", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 5765, "timeOnIcePerGame": 960.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.86991 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5812, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 968.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Nylander", "otTimeOnIce": 272, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 136.0, "playerId": 8477939, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1372, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 228.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 75, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 12.5, "shifts": 129, "shiftsPerGame": 21.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "William Nylander", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 7259, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1209.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 56.27131 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6732, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1122.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Raddysh", "otTimeOnIce": 403, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 201.5, "playerId": 8478178, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1472, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 245.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 134, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 22.33333, "shifts": 155, "shiftsPerGame": 25.83333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Darren Raddysh", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 8338, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1389.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.79354 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5280, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 880.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Roslovic", "otTimeOnIce": 121, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 60.5, "playerId": 8478458, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 634, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 105.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.16666, "shifts": 120, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jack Roslovic", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 5915, "timeOnIcePerGame": 985.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.29166 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6338, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1056.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Matthews", "otTimeOnIce": 346, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 173.0, "playerId": 8479318, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1449, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 241.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 208, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 34.66666, "shifts": 133, "shiftsPerGame": 22.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Auston Matthews", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 7995, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1332.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 60.11278 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5325, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 887.5, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Stecher", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479442, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 3, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1020, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 170.0, "shifts": 141, "shiftsPerGame": 23.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Troy Stecher", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 6348, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1058.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.02127 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2990, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 498.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Duhaime", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479520, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 15, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 1076, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 179.33333, "shifts": 100, "shiftsPerGame": 16.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brandon Duhaime", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 4081, "timeOnIcePerGame": 680.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.81 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 325, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 325.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "MacEwen", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479772, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 9, "shiftsPerGame": 9.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Zack MacEwen", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 325, "timeOnIcePerGame": 325.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.11111 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2268, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 453.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Groulx", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8480870, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 128, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 25.6, "shifts": 52, "shiftsPerGame": 10.4, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Bo Groulx", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 2396, "timeOnIcePerGame": 479.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.07692 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5544, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 924.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Marchenko", "otTimeOnIce": 146, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 73.0, "playerId": 8480893, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1334, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 222.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 124, "shiftsPerGame": 20.66666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kirill Marchenko", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 6878, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1146.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.46774 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 917, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 917.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Blankenburg", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483565, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 54, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 54.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nick Blankenburg", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 971, "timeOnIcePerGame": 971.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.23809 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4649, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 774.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Cowan", "otTimeOnIce": 124, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 62.0, "playerId": 8484158, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 490, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 81.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 117, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 19.5, "shifts": 112, "shiftsPerGame": 18.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Easton Cowan", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 5256, "timeOnIcePerGame": 876.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.92857 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4428, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 738.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "McKenna", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8486067, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 837, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 139.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 6, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "shifts": 103, "shiftsPerGame": 17.16666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Gavin McKenna", "teamAbbrevs": "TOR", "timeOnIce": 5271, "timeOnIcePerGame": 878.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.17475 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892500", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.88545966228893, 3.5287054409005627 ], "Primary": [ 2.9850424607870836, 3.5511455603500046 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8479772, "incumbent": "Zack MacEwen", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-07-01T22:34Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8479772, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479772/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "7:46", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.428571, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 21, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 21, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.076923, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 26, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 9, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 23, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 29, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 16, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Belleville Senators" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "6:20", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Devils" }, "teamName": { "default": "New Jersey Devils", "fr": "Devils du New Jersey" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "New Jersey", "fr": "du New Jersey" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "5:25", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8484158, "player": "Easton Cowan", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 910, "PP_seconds": 32, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8480870, "player": "Bo Groulx", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 503, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 42 }, { "player_id": 8477426, "player": "Nick Paul", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 49, "SH_seconds": 243 }, { "player_id": 8478458, "player": "Jack Roslovic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 78, "SH_seconds": 1 }, { "player_id": 8479520, "player": "Brandon Duhaime", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 464, "PP_seconds": 15, "SH_seconds": 179 }, { "player_id": 8480893, "player": "Kirill Marchenko", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 797, "PP_seconds": 216, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8486067, "player": "Gavin McKenna", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 677, "PP_seconds": 244, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477939, "player": "William Nylander", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 940, "PP_seconds": 251, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476927, "player": "Teddy Blueger", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 565, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 266 }, { "player_id": 8476925, "player": "Colton Sissons", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 732, "PP_seconds": 9, "SH_seconds": 269 }, { "player_id": 8479318, "player": "Auston Matthews", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 935, "PP_seconds": 244, "SH_seconds": 147 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8475690, "incumbent": "Chris Tanev", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-11T21:20Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": 8475690, "player": "Chris Tanev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 136, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 73 }, "history": [ { "player_id": 8475690, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475690/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "19:45", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 75, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 31, "points": 18, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.069767, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 43, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "19:32", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.333333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "17:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 8, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "16:51", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Maple Leafs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "fr": "Maple Leafs de Toronto" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Toronto", "fr": "de Toronto" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8479442, "player": "Troy Stecher", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 768, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 345 }, { "player_id": 8476853, "player": "Morgan Rielly", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1004, "PP_seconds": 60, "SH_seconds": 64 }, { "player_id": 8475171, "player": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 734, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 131 }, { "player_id": 8476931, "player": "Jake McCabe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 963, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 457 }, { "player_id": 8483565, "player": "Nick Blankenburg", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 917, "PP_seconds": 54, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478178, "player": "Darren Raddysh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 910, "PP_seconds": 245, "SH_seconds": 118 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020102, "team": "UTA", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 974, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 974.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Marino", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478507, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 147, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 147.0, "shTimeOnIce": 25, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 25.0, "shifts": 29, "shiftsPerGame": 29.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "John Marino", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1146, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1146.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.51724 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1095, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1095.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Sergachev", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479410, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 275, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 275.0, "shTimeOnIce": 153, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 153.0, "shifts": 30, "shiftsPerGame": 30.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mikhail Sergachev", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1523, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1523.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.76666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 647, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 647.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Lee", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475314, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 81, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 81.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Anders Lee", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 728, "timeOnIcePerGame": 728.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 781, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 781.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Cooley", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483431, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 336, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 336.0, "shTimeOnIce": 90, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 90.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Logan Cooley", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1207, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1207.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.28 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1070, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1070.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Weegar", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477346, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 153, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 153.0, "shifts": 28, "shiftsPerGame": 28.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "MacKenzie Weegar", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1223, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1223.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.67857 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 805, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 805.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Peeke", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479369, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 5, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.0, "shTimeOnIce": 109, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 109.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Andrew Peeke", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 919, "timeOnIcePerGame": 919.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 34.03703 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 998, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 998.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Schmidt", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477220, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 2, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "shTimeOnIce": 177, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 177.0, "shifts": 29, "shiftsPerGame": 29.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nate Schmidt", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1177, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1177.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.5862 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 764, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 764.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Schmaltz", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477951, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 276, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 276.0, "shTimeOnIce": 112, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 112.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nick Schmaltz", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1152, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1152.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.36363 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 768, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 768.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Crouse", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478474, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 129, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 129.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Lawson Crouse", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 897, "timeOnIcePerGame": 897.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.71428 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 748, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 748.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Stenlund", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478831, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 3, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.0, "shTimeOnIce": 79, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 79.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kevin Stenlund", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 830, "timeOnIcePerGame": 830.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 800, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 800.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Simashev", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484386, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 5, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dmitri Simashev", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 805, "timeOnIcePerGame": 805.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.35294 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 749, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 749.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Keller", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479343, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 337, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 337.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Clayton Keller", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1086, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1086.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.15789 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 693, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 693.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Guenther", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482699, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 339, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 339.0, "shTimeOnIce": 6, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Guenther", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1038, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1038.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.18181 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 643, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 643.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "McBain", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480855, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 86, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 86.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jack McBain", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 729, "timeOnIcePerGame": 729.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.5625 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 844, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 844.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Trocheck", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8476389, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 146, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 146.0, "shTimeOnIce": 45, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 45.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Vincent Trocheck", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 1035, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1035.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.4 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 597, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 597.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Hayton", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480849, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 82, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "shTimeOnIce": 71, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 71.0, "shifts": 20, "shiftsPerGame": 20.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Barrett Hayton", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 750, "timeOnIcePerGame": 750.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.5 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 629, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 629.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "But", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484388, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 14, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Daniil But", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 629, "timeOnIcePerGame": 629.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.92857 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 667, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 667.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020074, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Yamamoto", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "BUF", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479977, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 81, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 81.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kailer Yamamoto", "teamAbbrev": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 748, "timeOnIcePerGame": 748.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.75 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8478507, "player": "John Marino", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 974, "PP_seconds": 147, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8479410, "player": "Mikhail Sergachev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1095, "PP_seconds": 275, "SH_seconds": 153 }, { "player_id": 8475314, "player": "Anders Lee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 647, "PP_seconds": 81, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483431, "player": "Logan Cooley", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 781, "PP_seconds": 336, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8477346, "player": "MacKenzie Weegar", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1070, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 153 }, { "player_id": 8479369, "player": "Andrew Peeke", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 805, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8477220, "player": "Nate Schmidt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 998, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 177 }, { "player_id": 8477951, "player": "Nick Schmaltz", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 764, "PP_seconds": 276, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8478474, "player": "Lawson Crouse", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 768, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 129 }, { "player_id": 8478831, "player": "Kevin Stenlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8484386, "player": "Dmitri Simashev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 5 }, { "player_id": 8479343, "player": "Clayton Keller", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 749, "PP_seconds": 337, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482699, "player": "Dylan Guenther", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 339, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8480855, "player": "Jack McBain", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 643, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 86 }, { "player_id": 8476389, "player": "Vincent Trocheck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 844, "PP_seconds": 146, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8480849, "player": "Barrett Hayton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 597, "PP_seconds": 82, "SH_seconds": 71 }, { "player_id": 8484388, "player": "Daniil But", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 629, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479977, "player": "Kailer Yamamoto", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 667, "PP_seconds": 81, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 14272, "PP_seconds": 2110, "SH_seconds": 1240 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8477951, "name": { "default": "N. Schmaltz" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "19:12", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8479343, "name": { "default": "C. Keller" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:06", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8482699, "name": { "default": "D. Guenther" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:18", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8476389, "name": { "default": "V. Trocheck" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:15", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8480855, "name": { "default": "J. McBain" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:09", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8480849, "name": { "default": "B. Hayton" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:30", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8484388, "name": { "default": "D. But" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:29", "shifts": 14 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8479977, "name": { "default": "K. Yamamoto" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:28", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8478474, "name": { "default": "L. Crouse" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:57", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8475314, "name": { "default": "A. Lee" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:08", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8478831, "name": { "default": "K. Stenlund" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:50", "shifts": 20 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8483431, "name": { "default": "L. Cooley" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:07", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8478507, "name": { "default": "J. Marino" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "19:06", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8479369, "name": { "default": "A. Peeke" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:19", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8484386, "name": { "default": "D. Simashev" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:25", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8477346, "name": { "default": "M. Weegar" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:23", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8477220, "name": { "default": "N. Schmidt" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:37", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020074, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "UTA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "playerId": 8479410, "name": { "default": "M. Sergachev", "cs": "M. Serga\u010dov", "fi": "M. Sergatshov", "sk": "M. Serga\u010dov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "25:23", "shifts": 30 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.88545966228893, 3.5287054409005627 ], "Primary": [ 2.9850424607870836, 3.5511455603500046 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020074/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8484388, "player": "Daniil But", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8479619, "player": "Michael Carcone", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8483431, "player": "Logan Cooley", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8478474, "player": "Lawson Crouse", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8482699, "player": "Dylan Guenther", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8480849, "player": "Barrett Hayton", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8479343, "player": "Clayton Keller", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8475314, "player": "Anders Lee", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8480855, "player": "Jack McBain", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8477070, "player": "Liam O'Brien", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8477951, "player": "Nick Schmaltz", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8478831, "player": "Kevin Stenlund", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8476389, "player": "Vincent Trocheck", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8479977, "player": "Kailer Yamamoto", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8480084, "player": "Nick DeSimone", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8483472, "player": "Maveric Lamoureux", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8478507, "player": "John Marino", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8479369, "player": "Andrew Peeke", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8477220, "player": "Nate Schmidt", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8479410, "player": "Mikhail Sergachev", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8484386, "player": "Dmitri Simashev", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8477346, "player": "MacKenzie Weegar", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8482657, "player": "Sebastian Cossa", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" }, { "team": "UTA", "player_id": 8478872, "player": "Karel Vejmelka", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/UTA/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Utah Mammoth", "abbreviation": "UTAH", "player": "Michael Carcone", "player_id": "4031645", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-10T22:33Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/129764/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.666568+00:00" }, { "team": "Utah Mammoth", "abbreviation": "UTAH", "player": "Maveric Lamoureux", "player_id": "5080177", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T21:02Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/129764/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.666568+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8475314, 8476389, 8477070, 8477220, 8477346, 8477951, 8478474, 8478507, 8478831, 8478872, 8479343, 8479369, 8479410, 8479619, 8479977, 8480084, 8480849, 8480855, 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"gameWinningGoals": 7, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 7, "evGoals": 15, "skaterFullName": "Vincent Trocheck", "goals": 26, "evPoints": 40, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 28, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477070, "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "points": 2, "assists": 2, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 34, "timeOnIcePerGame": 557.8214, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 0, "skaterFullName": "Liam O'Brien", "goals": 0, "evPoints": 2, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.07142, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 80, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477220, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "points": 19, "assists": 14, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 70, "timeOnIcePerGame": 991.775, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 4, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 5, "skaterFullName": "Nate Schmidt", "goals": 5, "evPoints": 15, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.04347, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477346, 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"teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "points": 14, "assists": 13, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 30, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1270.0285, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 1, "skaterFullName": "John Marino", "goals": 1, "evPoints": 14, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.13725, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478831, "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "points": 28, "assists": 14, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 102, "timeOnIcePerGame": 861.0609, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 13, "skaterFullName": "Kevin Stenlund", "goals": 14, "evPoints": 27, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": 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"playerId": 8477346, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 24, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 777, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 129.5, "shifts": 177, "shiftsPerGame": 29.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "MacKenzie Weegar", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 7271, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1211.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.07909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4608, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 768.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Schmaltz", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8477951, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1627, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 271.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 485, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 80.83333, "shifts": 133, "shiftsPerGame": 22.16666, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Nick Schmaltz", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 6720, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1120.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.52631 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4574, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 762.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Crouse", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478474, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 19, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 769, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 128.16666, "shifts": 132, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Lawson Crouse", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 5362, "timeOnIcePerGame": 893.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.62121 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 6349, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1058.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Marino", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478507, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 753, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 125.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 146, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 24.33333, "shifts": 171, "shiftsPerGame": 28.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "John Marino", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 7248, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1208.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.38596 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4010, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 668.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Stenlund", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478831, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 3, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 923, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 153.83333, "shifts": 122, "shiftsPerGame": 20.33333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kevin Stenlund", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 4936, "timeOnIcePerGame": 822.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.45901 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4837, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 806.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Keller", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479343, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1695, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 282.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 3, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.5, "shifts": 122, "shiftsPerGame": 20.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Clayton Keller", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 6535, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1089.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.56557 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4691, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 781.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Peeke", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479369, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 20, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 776, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 129.33333, "shifts": 149, "shiftsPerGame": 24.83333, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Andrew Peeke", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 5487, "timeOnIcePerGame": 914.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.8255 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5690, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 948.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Sergachev", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479410, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 1458, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 243.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 804, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 134.0, "shifts": 168, "shiftsPerGame": 28.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mikhail Sergachev", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 7952, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1325.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.33333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3291, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 658.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Carcone", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479619, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 455, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 91.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 83, "shiftsPerGame": 16.6, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Michael Carcone", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 3746, "timeOnIcePerGame": 749.2, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.13253 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 667, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 667.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Yamamoto", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479977, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 81, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 81.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Kailer Yamamoto", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 748, "timeOnIcePerGame": 748.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.75 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4294, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 715.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Hayton", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480849, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 219, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 36.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 329, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 54.83333, "shifts": 125, "shiftsPerGame": 20.83333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Barrett Hayton", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 4842, "timeOnIcePerGame": 807.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.736 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4340, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 723.33333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "McBain", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480855, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 15, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 350, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 58.33333, "shifts": 117, "shiftsPerGame": 19.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jack McBain", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 4705, "timeOnIcePerGame": 784.16666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.21367 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4309, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 718.16666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Guenther", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482699, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1711, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 285.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 10, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.66666, "shifts": 123, "shiftsPerGame": 20.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Dylan Guenther", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 6030, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1005.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.02439 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4476, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 746.0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Cooley", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483431, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 1719, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 286.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 457, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 76.16666, "shifts": 135, "shiftsPerGame": 22.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Logan Cooley", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 6652, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1108.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.27407 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 5183, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 863.83333, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "Simashev", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484386, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 15, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 344, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 57.33333, "shifts": 136, "shiftsPerGame": 22.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Dmitri Simashev", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 5542, "timeOnIcePerGame": 923.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.75 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3604, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 600.66666, "gamesPlayed": 6, "lastName": "But", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484388, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 307, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 51.16666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 90, "shiftsPerGame": 15.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Daniil But", "teamAbbrevs": "UTA", "timeOnIce": 3911, "timeOnIcePerGame": 651.83333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.45555 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892500", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.88545966228893, 3.5287054409005627 ], "Primary": [ 2.9850424607870836, 3.5511455603500046 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 2.999995, 3.432925 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8479619, "incumbent": "Michael Carcone", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-10T22:33Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8479619, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479619/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "11:26", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 53, "goals": 7, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 36, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 19, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.093333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 75, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Utah Hockey Club", "fr": "Club de hockey de l'Utah" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Hockey Club", "fr": "Club de hockey de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "12:44", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.451613, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 79, "goals": 16, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 31, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.108844, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 147, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Mammoth" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Mammoth", "fr": "Mammoth de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "13:55", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.6, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Mammoth" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Mammoth", "fr": "Mammoth de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "12:29", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.058824, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 17, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Mammoth" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Mammoth", "fr": "Mammoth de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8475314, "player": "Anders Lee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 647, "PP_seconds": 81, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483431, "player": "Logan Cooley", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 781, "PP_seconds": 336, "SH_seconds": 90 }, { "player_id": 8477951, "player": "Nick Schmaltz", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 764, "PP_seconds": 276, "SH_seconds": 112 }, { "player_id": 8478474, "player": "Lawson Crouse", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 768, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 129 }, { "player_id": 8478831, "player": "Kevin Stenlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 748, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 79 }, { "player_id": 8479343, "player": "Clayton Keller", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 749, "PP_seconds": 337, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482699, "player": "Dylan Guenther", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 693, "PP_seconds": 339, "SH_seconds": 6 }, { "player_id": 8480855, "player": "Jack McBain", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 643, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 86 }, { "player_id": 8476389, "player": "Vincent Trocheck", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 844, "PP_seconds": 146, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8480849, "player": "Barrett Hayton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 597, "PP_seconds": 82, "SH_seconds": 71 }, { "player_id": 8484388, "player": "Daniil But", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 629, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479977, "player": "Kailer Yamamoto", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 667, "PP_seconds": 81, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8483472, "incumbent": "Maveric Lamoureux", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T21:02Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8483472, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483472/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "16:07", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 42, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.058824, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 17, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Utah Hockey Club", "fr": "Club de hockey de l'Utah" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Hockey Club", "fr": "Club de hockey de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 11, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 42, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 48, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 13, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Tucson Roadrunners" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Tucson Roadrunners" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "14:39", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Mammoth" }, "teamName": { "default": "Utah Mammoth", "fr": "Mammoth de l'Utah" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Utah", "fr": "de l'Utah" } }, { "assists": 15, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 65, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 75, "plusMinus": 7, "points": 20, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Tucson Roadrunners" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8478507, "player": "John Marino", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 974, "PP_seconds": 147, "SH_seconds": 25 }, { "player_id": 8479410, "player": "Mikhail Sergachev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1095, "PP_seconds": 275, "SH_seconds": 153 }, { "player_id": 8477346, "player": "MacKenzie Weegar", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1070, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 153 }, { "player_id": 8479369, "player": "Andrew Peeke", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 805, "PP_seconds": 5, "SH_seconds": 109 }, { "player_id": 8477220, "player": "Nate Schmidt", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 998, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 177 }, { "player_id": 8484386, "player": "Dmitri Simashev", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 800, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 5 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth", "market": { "id": "401892500", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892500", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.651682+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.832681+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 150.0, "away_line_price": -180.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": -108.0, "under_price": -112.0, "home_ml": -155.0, "away_ml": 130.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.6432457786116328, "combined": 6.414165103189493, "spread_buffer": -0.8567542213883672, "total_difference": -0.08583489681050693 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.6432457786116328, "combined": 6.414165103189493, "spread_buffer": -0.8567542213883672, "total_difference": -0.08583489681050693 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.566103099562921, "combined": 6.536188021137088, "spread_buffer": -0.933896900437079, "total_difference": 0.036188021137087745 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.566103099562921, "combined": 6.536188021137088, "spread_buffer": -0.933896900437079, "total_difference": 0.036188021137087745 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.4329299999999998, "combined": 6.43292, "spread_buffer": -1.0670700000000002, "total_difference": -0.0670799999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.4329299999999998, "combined": 6.43292, "spread_buffer": -1.0670700000000002, "total_difference": -0.0670799999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.4329299999999998, "combined": 6.43292, "spread_buffer": -1.0670700000000002, "total_difference": -0.0670799999999998 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.4329299999999998, "combined": 6.43292, "spread_buffer": -1.0670700000000002, "total_difference": -0.0670799999999998 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, 1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892501", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892501", "date": "2026-10-14T01:45Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1842", "fullName": "Honda Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Anaheim", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "3", "away_name": "Calgary Flames", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "25", "home_name": "Anaheim Ducks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.5853658536585367, 3.158536585365854 ], "current_rates": [ 1.6, 5.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.3292682926829267, 3.5121951219512195 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6, 2.6 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "home": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 2.816700313048467, 3.460209020817146 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.816700313048467, 3.460209020817146 ], "conditional_score": [ 2.816700313048467, 3.460209020817146 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "home": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20, "official_team_name": "Calgary Flames" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24, "official_team_name": "Anaheim Ducks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "home": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.53658, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 20, "official_team_name": "Calgary Flames" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24, "official_team_name": "Anaheim Ducks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "home": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "CGY: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. ANA: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: Ryan Poehling, Cutter Gauthier.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Honda Center; listed 2026-10-14T01:45Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892501", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Calgary Flames", "home": "Anaheim Ducks", "start_et": "2026-10-13T21:45:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T01:45Z", "venue": { "id": "1842", "fullName": "Honda Center", "address": { "city": "Anaheim", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 9:45 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 9:45 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Calgary Flames", "previous_game": { "id": "401892480", "date": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1843", "fullName": "Scotiabank Saddledome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Calgary", "state": "AB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "Anaheim Ducks", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "3", "home_name": "Calgary Flames", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20737.083333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "previous_game": { "id": "401892480", "date": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1843", "fullName": "Scotiabank Saddledome", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Calgary", "state": "AB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "Anaheim Ducks", "away_score": 4.0, "home": "3", "home_name": "Calgary Flames", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20737.083333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020103, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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{ "player_id": 8482165, "player": "Yan Kuznetsov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1054, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8480797, "player": "Joel Farabee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1034, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 47 }, { "player_id": 8484768, "player": "Zayne Parekh", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 885, "PP_seconds": 183, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484234, "player": "Aydar Suniev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 774, "PP_seconds": 175, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481068, "player": "Yegor Sharangovich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 168, "SH_seconds": 85 }, { "player_id": 8483495, "player": "Simon Nemec", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1240, "PP_seconds": 177, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480028, "player": "Morgan Frost", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 824, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8483609, "player": "Adam Klapka", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 695, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484154, "player": "Jonathan Castagna", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 591, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15719, "PP_seconds": 1800, "SH_seconds": 520 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8474150, "name": { "default": "M. Backlund" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:24", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8480028, "name": { "default": "M. Frost" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:58", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8481068, "name": { "default": "Y. Sharangovich", "cs": "J. \u0160arangovi\u010d", "fi": "J. 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Coronato" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:45", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8484154, "name": { "default": "J. Castagna" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:51", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8483609, "name": { "default": "A. Klapka" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:35", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8484234, "name": { "default": "A. Suniev" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:49", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8484958, "name": { "default": "M. Tsyplakov", "cs": "M. Cyplakov", "sk": "M. Cyplakov" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:28", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8481028, "name": { "default": "M. Pospisil", "cs": "M. Posp\u00ed\u0161il", "sk": "M. Posp\u00ed\u0161il" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:02", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8480797, "name": { "default": "J. Farabee" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:12", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8484860, "name": { "default": "M. Gridin" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:54", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8480860, "name": { "default": "K. Bahl" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:26", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8484768, "name": { "default": "Z. Parekh" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:48", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8480727, "name": { "default": "Z. Whitecloud" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:01", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8482165, "name": { "default": "Y. Kuznetsov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:19", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8478136, "name": { "default": "J. Middleton" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:40", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "CGY", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8483495, "name": { "default": "S. Nemec", "cs": "\u0160. Nemec", "sk": "\u0160. Nemec" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:37", "shifts": 24 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "Primary": [ 2.816700313048467, 3.460209020817146 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8474150, "player": "Mikael Backlund", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484154, "player": "Jonathan Castagna", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8482679, "player": "Matt Coronato", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8480797, "player": "Joel Farabee", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8480028, "player": "Morgan Frost", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484860, "player": "Matvei Gridin", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484180, "player": "Samuel Honzek", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8476456, "player": "Jonathan Huberdeau", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8483609, "player": "Adam Klapka", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8482747, "player": "Brennan Othmann", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8481028, "player": "Martin Pospisil", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8481068, "player": "Yegor Sharangovich", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8476458, "player": "Ryan Strome", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484234, "player": "Aydar Suniev", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484958, "player": "Maxim Tsyplakov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8480860, "player": "Kevin Bahl", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8477810, "player": "Joel Hanley", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8482165, "player": "Yan Kuznetsov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8478136, "player": "Jake Middleton", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8483495, "player": "Simon Nemec", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8484768, "player": "Zayne Parekh", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8480727, "player": "Zach Whitecloud", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8482445, "player": "Devin Cooley", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" }, { "team": "CGY", "player_id": 8481692, "player": "Dustin Wolf", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/CGY/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Calgary Flames", "abbreviation": "CGY", "player": "Samuel Honzek", "player_id": "5149191", "injuries": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T16:39Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/3/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" }, { "team": "Calgary Flames", "abbreviation": "CGY", "player": "Jonathan Huberdeau", "player_id": "2562606", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T21:15Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/3/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.079310+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8474150, 8476456, 8476458, 8477810, 8478136, 8480028, 8480727, 8480797, 8480860, 8481028, 8481068, 8481692, 8482165, 8482445, 8482679, 8482747, 8483495, 8483609, 8484154, 8484180, 8484234, 8484768, 8484860, 8484958 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.08571, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 76, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8474150, "teamAbbrevs": "CGY", "points": 32, "assists": 17, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 175, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1124.2105, "ppGoals": 1, "ppPoints": 6, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 13, "skaterFullName": "Mikael Backlund", "goals": 15, "evPoints": 25, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.183, "shGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8476456, "teamAbbrevs": "CGY", "points": 62, "assists": 34, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 153, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1172.5185, "ppGoals": 10, "ppPoints": 23, 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"skaterFullName": "Matvei Gridin", "teamAbbrevs": "CGY", "timeOnIce": 4384, "timeOnIcePerGame": 876.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.66666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2592, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 648.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Tsyplakov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484958, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 272, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 68.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 62, "shiftsPerGame": 15.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Maksim Tsyplakov", "teamAbbrevs": "CGY", "timeOnIce": 2864, "timeOnIcePerGame": 716.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.19354 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892501", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "Primary": [ 2.816700313048467, 3.460209020817146 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8484180, "incumbent": "Samuel Honzek", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-12T16:39Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8484180, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8484180/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "12:24", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } }, { "assists": 13, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 52, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 18, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 21, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Wranglers" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Slovakia" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Wranglers" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "12:21", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.545455, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 18, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.090909, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 22, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "15:39", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8474150, "player": "Mikael Backlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1083, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8482679, "player": "Matt Coronato", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 164, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476458, "player": "Ryan Strome", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 623, "PP_seconds": 196, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484860, "player": "Matvei Gridin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 184, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481028, "player": "Martin Pospisil", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 618, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8484958, "player": "Maksim Tsyplakov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 519, "PP_seconds": 169, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480797, "player": "Joel Farabee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1034, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 47 }, { "player_id": 8484234, "player": "Aydar Suniev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 774, "PP_seconds": 175, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481068, "player": "Yegor Sharangovich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 168, "SH_seconds": 85 }, { "player_id": 8480028, "player": "Morgan Frost", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 824, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8483609, "player": "Adam Klapka", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 695, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484154, "player": "Jonathan Castagna", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 591, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8476456, "incumbent": "Jonathan Huberdeau", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T21:15Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8476456, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476456/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 34, "avgToi": "19:33", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.333333, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 6, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 28, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 34, "plusMinus": -13, "points": 62, "powerPlayGoals": 10, "powerPlayPoints": 23, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.183007, "shorthandedGoals": 3, "shorthandedPoints": 4, "shots": 153, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } }, { "assists": 15, "avgToi": "18:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.444444, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 50, "goals": 10, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 41, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 25, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 7, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.120482, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 83, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flames" }, "teamName": { "default": "Calgary Flames", "fr": "Flames de Calgary" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Calgary", "fr": "de Calgary" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8474150, "player": "Mikael Backlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1083, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 81 }, { "player_id": 8482679, "player": "Matt Coronato", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1021, "PP_seconds": 164, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476458, "player": "Ryan Strome", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 623, "PP_seconds": 196, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484860, "player": "Matvei Gridin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 710, "PP_seconds": 184, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481028, "player": "Martin Pospisil", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 618, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8484958, "player": "Maksim Tsyplakov", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 519, "PP_seconds": 169, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480797, "player": "Joel Farabee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1034, "PP_seconds": 191, "SH_seconds": 47 }, { "player_id": 8484234, "player": "Aydar Suniev", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 774, "PP_seconds": 175, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481068, "player": "Yegor Sharangovich", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1078, "PP_seconds": 168, "SH_seconds": 85 }, { "player_id": 8480028, "player": "Morgan Frost", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 824, "PP_seconds": 192, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8483609, "player": "Adam Klapka", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 695, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484154, "player": "Jonathan Castagna", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 591, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020103, "team": "ANA", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 743, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 743.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Nesterenko", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481754, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 101, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 101.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nikita Nesterenko", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 844, "timeOnIcePerGame": 844.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.69565 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 673, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 673.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Vatrano", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478366, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 35, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 35.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Frank Vatrano", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 708, "timeOnIcePerGame": 708.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.26315 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1161, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1161.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Hinds", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482731, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tyson Hinds", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1161, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1161.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.44 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 887, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 887.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Granlund", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475798, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 96, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 96.0, "shTimeOnIce": 180, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 180.0, "shifts": 29, "shiftsPerGame": 29.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mikael Granlund", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1163, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1163.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.10344 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 138, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 138.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Gauthier", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483445, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 5, "shiftsPerGame": 5.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Cutter Gauthier", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 138, "timeOnIcePerGame": 138.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 27.6 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1067, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1067.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Warren", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483521, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 207, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 207.0, "shifts": 33, "shiftsPerGame": 33.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Noah Warren", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1274, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1274.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.60606 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 824, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 824.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Colangelo", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482118, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 35, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 35.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 21, "shiftsPerGame": 21.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Sam Colangelo", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 859, "timeOnIcePerGame": 859.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.90476 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 736, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 736.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Caulfield", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481538, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 95, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 95.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Judd Caulfield", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 831, "timeOnIcePerGame": 831.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.73684 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1279, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1279.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Luneau", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483482, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 36, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 36.0, "shTimeOnIce": 107, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 107.0, "shifts": 30, "shiftsPerGame": 30.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Tristan Luneau", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1422, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1422.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.4 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1140, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1140.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Sennecke", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484762, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 95, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 95.0, "shTimeOnIce": 2, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Beckett Sennecke", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1237, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1237.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.7826 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 875, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 875.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Killorn", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8473986, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 35, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 35.0, "shTimeOnIce": 207, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 207.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alex Killorn", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1117, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1117.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 41.37037 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 789, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 789.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "LaCombe", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8481605, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 94, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 94.0, "shTimeOnIce": 138, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 138.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jackson LaCombe", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1021, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1021.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.26923 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 951, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 951.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Mitchell", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484262, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 101, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 101.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Travis Mitchell", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1052, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1052.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.73913 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 625, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 625.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Poehling", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8480068, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 84, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ryan Poehling", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 709, "timeOnIcePerGame": 709.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.31578 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 985, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 985.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Mintyukov", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483490, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 34, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 34.0, "shTimeOnIce": 170, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 170.0, "shifts": 28, "shiftsPerGame": 28.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Pavel Mintyukov", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1189, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1189.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.46428 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1094, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1094.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Carlsson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484153, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 95, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 95.0, "shTimeOnIce": 29, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 29.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Leo Carlsson", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1218, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1218.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.72 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 886, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 886.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Washe", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8485512, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 114, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 114.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Tim Washe", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 1000, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1000.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 697, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 697.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020082, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Malott", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "CGY", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8482408, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Jeff Malott", "teamAbbrev": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 697, "timeOnIcePerGame": 697.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.5625 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8481754, "player": "Nikita Nesterenko", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 101 }, { "player_id": 8478366, "player": "Frank Vatrano", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 673, "PP_seconds": 35, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482731, "player": "Tyson Hinds", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1161, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475798, "player": "Mikael Granlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 180 }, { "player_id": 8483445, "player": "Cutter Gauthier", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 138, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483521, "player": "Noah Warren", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1067, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 207 }, { "player_id": 8482118, "player": "Sam Colangelo", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 824, "PP_seconds": 35, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481538, "player": "Judd Caulfield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 736, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483482, "player": "Tristan Luneau", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1279, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8484762, "player": "Beckett Sennecke", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1140, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8473986, "player": "Alex Killorn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 875, "PP_seconds": 35, "SH_seconds": 207 }, { "player_id": 8481605, "player": "Jackson LaCombe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 789, "PP_seconds": 94, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8484262, "player": "Travis Mitchell", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 101 }, { "player_id": 8480068, "player": "Ryan Poehling", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 625, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8483490, "player": "Pavel Mintyukov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 34, "SH_seconds": 170 }, { "player_id": 8484153, "player": "Leo Carlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1094, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 29 }, { "player_id": 8485512, "player": "Tim Washe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 886, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8482408, "player": "Jeff Malott", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 697, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15550, "PP_seconds": 650, "SH_seconds": 1440 }, "conditional_branches": [ { "scenario": "Conditional absence and redistribution", "status_source": { "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "abbreviation": "ANA", "player": "Ryan Poehling", "player_id": "4233668", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T19:02Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/25/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.076158+00:00" }, "incumbent": { "player_id": 8480068, "player": "Ryan Poehling", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 625, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, "replacement_ids": [ 8481754, 8478366, 8475798, 8483445, 8482118, 8481538, 8484762, 8473986, 8484153, 8485512, 8482408 ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8481754, "player": "Nikita Nesterenko", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 796.4194179224663, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 114.40284360189574 }, { "player_id": 8478366, "player": "Frank Vatrano", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 721.3866329230416, "PP_seconds": 35.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8482731, "player": "Tyson Hinds", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1161, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475798, "player": "Mikael Granlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 950.7725756355688, "PP_seconds": 96.0, "SH_seconds": 203.88625592417063 }, { "player_id": 8483445, "player": "Cutter Gauthier", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 147.92177614172323, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8483521, "player": "Noah Warren", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1067, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 207 }, { "player_id": 8482118, "player": "Sam Colangelo", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 883.2430691360865, "PP_seconds": 35.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8481538, "player": "Judd Caulfield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 788.9161394225239, "PP_seconds": 95.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8483482, "player": "Tristan Luneau", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1279, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8484762, "player": "Beckett Sennecke", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1221.9624985620615, "PP_seconds": 95.0, "SH_seconds": 2.265402843601896 }, { "player_id": 8473986, "player": "Alex Killorn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 937.9098124928103, "PP_seconds": 35.0, "SH_seconds": 234.46919431279622 }, { "player_id": 8481605, "player": "Jackson LaCombe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 789, "PP_seconds": 94, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8484262, "player": "Travis Mitchell", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 101 }, { "player_id": 8483490, "player": "Pavel Mintyukov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 34, "SH_seconds": 170 }, { "player_id": 8484153, "player": "Leo Carlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1172.6552398481538, "PP_seconds": 95.0, "SH_seconds": 32.84834123222749 }, { "player_id": 8485512, "player": "Tim Washe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 949.7006787070056, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 129.12796208530807 }, { "player_id": 8482408, "player": "Jeff Malott", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 747.1121592085586, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15550.0, "PP_seconds": 650.0, "SH_seconds": 1440.0 }, "calculation": "Reallocate missing observed EV/PP/SH seconds among demonstrated same-position-group reference skaters in proportion to each strength exposure. Explicit shortened-bench sensitivity; final dressing replacement and PP-unit labels not invented.", "unassigned_dressing_slot": "Current reserve choice unconfirmed; no independent scoring contribution assumed." }, { "scenario": "Conditional absence and redistribution", "status_source": { "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "abbreviation": "ANA", "player": "Cutter Gauthier", "player_id": "5080145", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T19:08Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/25/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.076158+00:00" }, "incumbent": { "player_id": 8483445, "player": "Cutter Gauthier", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 138, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, "replacement_ids": [ 8481754, 8478366, 8475798, 8482118, 8481538, 8484762, 8473986, 8480068, 8484153, 8485512, 8482408 ], "rotation": [ { "player_id": 8481754, "player": "Nikita Nesterenko", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 754.1692810457516, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 101.0 }, { "player_id": 8478366, "player": "Frank Vatrano", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 683.1169934640523, "PP_seconds": 35.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8482731, "player": "Tyson Hinds", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1161, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475798, "player": "Mikael Granlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 900.3339869281045, "PP_seconds": 96.0, "SH_seconds": 180.0 }, { "player_id": 8483521, "player": "Noah Warren", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1067, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 207 }, { "player_id": 8482118, "player": "Sam Colangelo", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 836.3869281045752, "PP_seconds": 35.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8481538, "player": "Judd Caulfield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 747.0640522875817, "PP_seconds": 95.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8483482, "player": "Tristan Luneau", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1279, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8484762, "player": "Beckett Sennecke", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1157.137254901961, "PP_seconds": 95.0, "SH_seconds": 2.0 }, { "player_id": 8473986, "player": "Alex Killorn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 888.1535947712418, "PP_seconds": 35.0, "SH_seconds": 207.0 }, { "player_id": 8481605, "player": "Jackson LaCombe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 789, "PP_seconds": 94, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8484262, "player": "Travis Mitchell", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 101 }, { "player_id": 8480068, "player": "Ryan Poehling", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 634.3954248366013, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 84.0 }, { "player_id": 8483490, "player": "Pavel Mintyukov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 34, "SH_seconds": 170 }, { "player_id": 8484153, "player": "Leo Carlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1110.445751633987, "PP_seconds": 95.0, "SH_seconds": 29.0 }, { "player_id": 8485512, "player": "Tim Washe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 899.318954248366, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 114.0 }, { "player_id": 8482408, "player": "Jeff Malott", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 707.4777777777778, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 15550.0, "PP_seconds": 650.0, "SH_seconds": 1440.0 }, "calculation": "Reallocate missing observed EV/PP/SH seconds among demonstrated same-position-group reference skaters in proportion to each strength exposure. Explicit shortened-bench sensitivity; final dressing replacement and PP-unit labels not invented.", "unassigned_dressing_slot": "Current reserve choice unconfirmed; no independent scoring contribution assumed." } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8482118, "name": { "default": "S. Colangelo" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:19", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8481754, "name": { "default": "N. Nesterenko" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:04", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8473986, "name": { "default": "A. Killorn" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:37", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8480068, "name": { "default": "R. Poehling" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "points": 2, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:49", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8481538, "name": { "default": "J. Caulfield" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:51", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8482408, "name": { "default": "J. Malott" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:37", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8485512, "name": { "default": "T. Washe" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:40", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8484762, "name": { "default": "B. Sennecke" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:37", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8483445, "name": { "default": "C. Gauthier" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "02:18", "shifts": 5 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8475798, "name": { "default": "M. Granlund" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 2, "points": 2, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:23", "shifts": 29 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8478366, "name": { "default": "F. Vatrano" }, "position": "R", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:48", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8484153, "name": { "default": "L. Carlsson" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:18", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8481605, "name": { "default": "J. LaCombe" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "17:01", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8484262, "name": { "default": "T. Mitchell" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:32", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8483521, "name": { "default": "N. Warren" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:14", "shifts": 33 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8482731, "name": { "default": "T. Hinds" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:21", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8483482, "name": { "default": "T. Luneau" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "23:42", "shifts": 30 }, { "event_id": 2026020082, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "ANA", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "playerId": 8483490, "name": { "default": "P. Mintyukov", "cs": "P. Mintjukov", "fi": "P. Mintjukov", "sk": "P. Mintjukov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:49", "shifts": 28 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "Primary": [ 2.816700313048467, 3.460209020817146 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020082/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: Ryan Poehling, Cutter Gauthier.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8484153, "player": "Leo Carlsson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8481538, "player": "Judd Caulfield", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8482118, "player": "Sam Colangelo", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8483445, "player": "Cutter Gauthier", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8475798, "player": "Mikael Granlund", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8478421, "player": "A.J. Greer", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8473986, "player": "Alex Killorn", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8486052, "player": "Nikita Klepov", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8482408, "player": "Jeff Malott", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8481754, "player": "Nikita Nesterenko", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8480068, "player": "Ryan Poehling", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8484762, "player": "Beckett Sennecke", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8478366, "player": "Frank Vatrano", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8485512, "player": "Tim Washe", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8481563, "player": "Drew Helleson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8482731, "player": "Tyson Hinds", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8475324, "player": "Nick Jensen", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8481605, "player": "Jackson LaCombe", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8483482, "player": "Tristan Luneau", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8483490, "player": "Pavel Mintyukov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8484262, "player": "Travis Mitchell", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8482178, "player": "Ian Moore", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8483521, "player": "Noah Warren", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8480843, "player": "Lukas Dostal", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" }, { "team": "ANA", "player_id": 8478024, "player": "Ville Husso", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/ANA/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "abbreviation": "ANA", "player": "Ryan Poehling", "player_id": "4233668", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T19:02Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/25/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.076158+00:00" }, { "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "abbreviation": "ANA", "player": "Cutter Gauthier", "player_id": "5080145", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T19:08Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/25/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.076158+00:00" }, { "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "abbreviation": "ANA", "player": "Troy Terry", "player_id": "3942905", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-30T14:53Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/25/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.076158+00:00" }, { "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "abbreviation": "ANA", "player": "Drew Helleson", "player_id": "4565270", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T18:11Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/25/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.076158+00:00" }, { "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "abbreviation": "ANA", "player": "Ian Moore", "player_id": "5188523", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T00:06Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/25/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.076158+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8473986, 8475324, 8475798, 8478024, 8478366, 8478421, 8480068, 8480843, 8481538, 8481563, 8481605, 8481754, 8482118, 8482178, 8482408, 8482731, 8483445, 8483482, 8483490, 8483521, 8484153, 8484262, 8484762, 8485512, 8486052 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.14179, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8473986, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "points": 37, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 134, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1036.5609, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 2, "evGoals": 18, "skaterFullName": "Alex Killorn", "goals": 19, "evPoints": 32, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.03896, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 71, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8475324, "teamAbbrevs": "OTT", "points": 21, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 77, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1213.2253, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 3, "skaterFullName": "Nick Jensen", "goals": 3, "evPoints": 21, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.13017, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 83, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8475798, "teamAbbrevs": "SJS,DAL", "points": 66, "assists": 44, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 169, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1166.9879, "ppGoals": 5, "ppPoints": 19, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 16, "skaterFullName": "Mikael Granlund", "goals": 22, "evPoints": 46, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.08974, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478366, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "points": 45, "assists": 24, "positionCode": "R", "shots": 234, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1052.716, "ppGoals": 3, "ppPoints": 5, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 17, "skaterFullName": "Frank Vatrano", "goals": 21, "evPoints": 39, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.06976, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478421, "teamAbbrevs": "FLA", "points": 17, "assists": 11, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 86, "timeOnIcePerGame": 575.5925, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 5, "skaterFullName": "Anthony-John (AJ) Greer", "goals": 6, "evPoints": 16, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.16901, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 68, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8480068, "teamAbbrevs": "PHI", "points": 31, "assists": 19, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 71, "timeOnIcePerGame": 832.7941, "ppGoals": 2, "ppPoints": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 10, "skaterFullName": "Ryan Poehling", "goals": 12, "evPoints": 27, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.06349, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 56, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8481563, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "points": 13, "assists": 9, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 63, "timeOnIcePerGame": 981.0714, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "Drew Helleson", "goals": 4, "evPoints": 12, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.10447, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 75, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8481605, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "points": 43, "assists": 29, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 134, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1338.04, "ppGoals": 2, "ppPoints": 9, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 12, "skaterFullName": "Jackson LaCombe", "goals": 14, "evPoints": 33, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.2, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 20, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8481754, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "points": 6, "assists": 2, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 20, "timeOnIcePerGame": 619.0, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "Nikita Nesterenko", "goals": 4, "evPoints": 6, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=600&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.2439, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 32, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8482118, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "points": 12, "assists": 2, "positionCode": "R", "shots": 41, "timeOnIcePerGame": 749.1875, "ppGoals": 2, "ppPoints": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 8, "skaterFullName": "Sam Colangelo", "goals": 10, "evPoints": 10, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=700&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8482178, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "points": 1, "assists": 1, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 4, "timeOnIcePerGame": 818.3333, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 0, "skaterFullName": "Ian Moore", "goals": 0, "evPoints": 1, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=700&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 12, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8482408, "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "points": 1, "assists": 1, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 13, "timeOnIcePerGame": 616.5, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 0, "skaterFullName": "Jeff Malott", "goals": 0, "evPoints": 1, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=700&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.10526, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 2, "playerId": 8483445, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "points": 44, "assists": 24, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 190, "timeOnIcePerGame": 849.3292, "ppGoals": 2, "ppPoints": 6, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 18, "skaterFullName": "Cutter Gauthier", "goals": 20, "evPoints": 38, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=800&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.0, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8483482, 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"timeOnIcePerGame": 980.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 42.24137 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 555, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 555.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Klepov", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8486052, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 48, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 48.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Nikita Klepov", "teamAbbrevs": "ANA", "timeOnIce": 603, "timeOnIcePerGame": 603.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.6875 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892501", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 2.7590243902439027, 3.5951219512195127 ], "Primary": [ 2.816700313048467, 3.460209020817146 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.0243849999999997, 3.176825 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8480068, "incumbent": "Ryan Poehling", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T19:02Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": 8480068, "player": "Ryan Poehling", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 625, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, "history": [ { "player_id": 8480068, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480068/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 19, "avgToi": "13:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.50882, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 68, "goals": 12, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 31, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.169014, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 71, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Flyers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Philadelphia Flyers", "fr": "Flyers de Philadelphie" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Philadelphia", "fr": "de Philadelphie" } }, { "assists": 25, "avgToi": "15:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.484436, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 75, "goals": 11, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 8, "points": 36, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.117021, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 4, "shots": 94, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "12:46", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.416667, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 11, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.235294, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 17, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim 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"SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475798, "player": "Mikael Granlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 180 }, { "player_id": 8483445, "player": "Cutter Gauthier", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 138, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482118, "player": "Sam Colangelo", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 824, "PP_seconds": 35, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481538, "player": "Judd Caulfield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 736, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484762, "player": "Beckett Sennecke", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1140, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8473986, "player": "Alex Killorn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 875, "PP_seconds": 35, "SH_seconds": 207 }, { "player_id": 8484153, "player": "Leo Carlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1094, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 29 }, { "player_id": 8485512, "player": "Tim Washe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 886, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8482408, "player": "Jeff Malott", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 697, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8483445, "incumbent": "Cutter Gauthier", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T19:08Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": 8483445, "player": "Cutter Gauthier", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 138, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, "history": [ { "player_id": 8483445, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483445/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 24, "avgToi": "14:09", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.375, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 2, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": 8, "points": 44, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 6, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.105263, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 190, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } }, { "assists": 4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 9, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "USA" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "International", "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "Team USA" } }, { "assists": 28, "avgToi": "17:15", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.490385, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 7, "gamesPlayed": 76, "goals": 41, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 28, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 69, "powerPlayGoals": 11, "powerPlayPoints": 19, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.14386, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 285, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "16:15", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.588235, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 12, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 12, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 8, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.102564, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 39, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "16:42", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.117647, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 17, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8481754, "player": "Nikita Nesterenko", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 743, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 101 }, { "player_id": 8478366, "player": "Frank Vatrano", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 673, "PP_seconds": 35, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475798, "player": "Mikael Granlund", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 96, "SH_seconds": 180 }, { "player_id": 8482118, "player": "Sam Colangelo", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 824, "PP_seconds": 35, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481538, "player": "Judd Caulfield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 736, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484762, "player": "Beckett Sennecke", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1140, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8473986, "player": "Alex Killorn", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 875, "PP_seconds": 35, "SH_seconds": 207 }, { "player_id": 8480068, "player": "Ryan Poehling", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 625, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8484153, "player": "Leo Carlsson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1094, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 29 }, { "player_id": 8485512, "player": "Tim Washe", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 886, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 114 }, { "player_id": 8482408, "player": "Jeff Malott", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 697, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Troy Terry", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-30T14:53Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8481563, "incumbent": "Drew Helleson", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T18:11Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8481563, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481563/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 9, "avgToi": "16:21", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 56, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 47, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 13, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.063492, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 63, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 12, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 14, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "San Diego Gulls" } }, { "assists": 13, "avgToi": "16:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 60, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 15, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.051282, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 39, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "9:13", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482731, "player": "Tyson Hinds", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1161, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483521, "player": "Noah Warren", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1067, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 207 }, { "player_id": 8483482, "player": "Tristan Luneau", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1279, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8481605, "player": "Jackson LaCombe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 789, "PP_seconds": 94, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8484262, "player": "Travis Mitchell", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 101 }, { "player_id": 8483490, "player": "Pavel Mintyukov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 34, "SH_seconds": 170 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8482178, "incumbent": "Ian Moore", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T00:06Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482178, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482178/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "13:38", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } }, { "assists": 11, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 32, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NCAA", "pim": 14, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 14, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Harvard Univ." } }, { "assists": 4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 9, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 5, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 12, "teamName": { "default": "San Diego Gulls" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "13:40", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 67, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": -14, "points": 12, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.060606, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 66, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "San Diego Gulls" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:06", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 10, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.076923, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Ducks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Anaheim Ducks", "fr": "Ducks d'Anaheim" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Anaheim", "fr": "d'Anaheim" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482731, "player": "Tyson Hinds", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1161, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483521, "player": "Noah Warren", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1067, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 207 }, { "player_id": 8483482, "player": "Tristan Luneau", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1279, "PP_seconds": 36, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8481605, "player": "Jackson LaCombe", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 789, "PP_seconds": 94, "SH_seconds": 138 }, { "player_id": 8484262, "player": "Travis Mitchell", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 951, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 101 }, { "player_id": 8483490, "player": "Pavel Mintyukov", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 985, "PP_seconds": 34, "SH_seconds": 170 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks", "market": { "id": "401892501", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892501", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.675099+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.872315+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 124.0, "away_line_price": -148.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 110.0, "under_price": -130.0, "home_ml": -205.0, "away_ml": 170.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.83609756097561, "combined": 6.354146341463416, "spread_buffer": -0.66390243902439, "total_difference": -0.14585365853658416 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.83609756097561, "combined": 6.354146341463416, "spread_buffer": -0.66390243902439, "total_difference": -0.14585365853658416 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.643508707768679, "combined": 6.276909333865613, "spread_buffer": -0.856491292231321, "total_difference": -0.22309066613438677 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.643508707768679, "combined": 6.276909333865613, "spread_buffer": -0.856491292231321, "total_difference": -0.22309066613438677 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.15244000000000035, "combined": 6.20121, "spread_buffer": -1.3475599999999996, "total_difference": -0.29879000000000033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.15244000000000035, "combined": 6.20121, "spread_buffer": -1.3475599999999996, "total_difference": -0.29879000000000033 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.15244000000000035, "combined": 6.20121, "spread_buffer": -1.3475599999999996, "total_difference": -0.29879000000000033 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.15244000000000035, "combined": 6.20121, "spread_buffer": -1.3475599999999996, "total_difference": -0.29879000000000033 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401898718", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898718", "date": "2026-10-14T02:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": true, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV" } }, "away": "9", "away_name": "Golden State Warriors", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "13", "home_name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 114.59756097560975, 115.7560975609756 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.59756097560975, 115.7560975609756 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.59756097560975, 115.7560975609756 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 114.60975609756098, 115.17073170731707 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 116.34146341463415, 114.58536585365853 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.591465, 134.591465 ], "home": [ 95.756095, 135.75609500000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 112.31358760221711, 113.18782789207457 ], "adjusted_score": [ 112.31358760221711, 113.18782789207457 ], "conditional_score": [ 112.31358760221711, 113.18782789207457 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2792, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "908b352170b64d5da6773996ab99d15522ad83b83d62bcef1698642fdf619d5b" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.695368619799016, "mean_margin_error": 14.866714897441717, "mean_total_error": 10.858078193211853, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.591465, 134.591465 ], "home": [ 95.756095, 135.75609500000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.34146, "pa": 114.57317 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.591465, 134.591465 ], "home": [ 95.756095, 135.75609500000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "adjusted_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "conditional_score": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.60976, "pa": 115.17073 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.34146, "pa": 114.57317 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 94.591465, 134.591465 ], "home": [ 95.756095, 135.75609500000002 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Los Angeles Lakers: Latest Doncic/Reaves/Grimes creation with Looney/Mamukelashvili center minutes. Kessler practice does not establish clearance; conditional return role unestimated without current sample. William Kyle waived October9, removed. Kaluma/Knecht/Sexton/Williams flags retain dates. Golden State Warriors: Santos/Lendeborg first-unit opportunities cover Butler/Moody absences. Horford explicitly will not travel Tuesday; remove his reference minutes and redistribute among current demonstrated participants. Porzingis absent, not automatically cleared. Miles Kelly waived. Neutral Las Vegas exhibition, not Lakers home advantage evidence.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2792 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "T-Mobile Arena; listed 2026-10-14T02:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs GSW 10:00 pm ET T-Mobile Arena Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only. Neutral exhibition at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, not Los Angeles. NeutralSite=true confirmed in score input.", "details": { "event_id": "401898718", "sport": "NBA", "away": "Golden State Warriors", "home": "Los Angeles Lakers", "start_et": "2026-10-13T22:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T02:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": true, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 10:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 10:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.365786+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612747/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs GSW 10:00 pm ET T-Mobile Arena Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only.", "Neutral exhibition at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, not Los Angeles. NeutralSite=true confirmed in score input." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "previous_game": { "id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "6270", "fullName": "Chase Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Francisco", "state": "CA" } }, "away": "23", "away_name": "Sacramento Kings", "away_score": 106.0, "home": "9", "home_name": "Golden State Warriors", "home_score": 111.0, "day": 20737.020833333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "previous_game": { "id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA" } }, "away": "23", "away_name": "Sacramento Kings", "away_score": 110.0, "home": "13", "home_name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "home_score": 114.0, "day": 20735.114583333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 5, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.", "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "reviewer": "Parent synthesis" } }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898390", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898716", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401918010", 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"https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/6430/stats?seasontype=2", "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/6589/stats?seasontype=2", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions", "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612744/warriors", "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612747/lakers", "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612747/schedule" ], "tu": { "id": "401898718", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898718", "date": "2026-10-14T02:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": true, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV" } }, "away": "9", "away_name": "Golden State Warriors", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "13", "home_name": "Los Angeles Lakers", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nba-existing-oct7", "formula": "2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense 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No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/basketball/nba/standings?season=2026&seasontype=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\scoring\\slate-NBA.json", "sha256": "2e9c386a663a350b91308ee15d0cb3d3724436eff9fd51c5900c823529c6b212" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\NBA.json", "sha256": "50094e2a298781008155f704a51fca6b4de4fd7e71d96e51ca47c9409c3e3cb5" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Tracking-only policy; explicit sport activation and calibrated buffers/distribution absent.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "maximum_tiers": 2, "free_picks": false }, 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"reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 25.210084033613445, "creation_assist_share": 0.2962962962962963, "reference_AST": 8.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.4566210045662101, "conditional_FGA": 7.186046511627907, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.186046511627907 }, { "player_id": "4397014", "player": "Quentin Grimes", "reference_minutes": 29.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 29.243697478991596, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 6.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.625, "reference_TS": 0.6756756756756757, "conditional_FGA": 8.186046511627907, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.186046511627907 }, { "player_id": "4278077", "player": "Jarred Vanderbilt", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.07563025210084, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.0930232558139537, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0930232558139537 }, { "player_id": "4278580", "player": "Sandro Mamukelashvili", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.176470588235293, "creation_assist_share": 0.14814814814814814, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.85, "reference_TS": 0.8731617647058822, "conditional_FGA": 10.186046511627907, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.186046511627907 }, { "player_id": "4397134", "player": "Cole Swider", "reference_minutes": 4.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 4.033613445378151, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.20491803278688525, "conditional_FGA": 2.0930232558139537, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0930232558139537 }, { "player_id": "4592691", "player": "Jake LaRavia", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 24.201680672268907, "creation_assist_share": 0.1111111111111111, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.7899628252788105, "conditional_FGA": 9.13953488372093, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.13953488372093 }, { "player_id": "5114350", "player": "AK Okereke", "reference_minutes": 5.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 5.042016806722689, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.797872340425532, "conditional_FGA": 1.0465116279069768, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0465116279069768 }, { "player_id": "3907498", "player": "Matisse Thybulle", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.176470588235293, "creation_assist_share": 0.037037037037037035, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.375, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4683774", "player": "Bronny James", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 22.18487394957983, "creation_assist_share": 0.2222222222222222, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5154639175257733, "conditional_FGA": 3.046511627906977, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0465116279069768 }, { "player_id": "4702972", "player": "Chris Manon", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.050420168067227, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 2.0930232558139537, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0930232558139537 }, { "player_id": "4868423", "player": "Jaden Hardy", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.07563025210084, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5319148936170213, "conditional_FGA": 3.0930232558139537, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0930232558139537 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction.", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [ { "reference_date": "2026-10-06T02:00Z", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "3155535", "player": "Kevon Looney", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 18.227848101265824, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4433137", "player": "Ziaire Williams", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.265822784810126, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.9166666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.9447674418604651, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "3907498", "player": "Matisse Thybulle", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 18.227848101265824, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "3945274", "player": "Luka Doncic", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 16.20253164556962, "creation_assist_share": 0.10714285714285714, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5416666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6578947368421052, "conditional_FGA": 12.0, "conditional_3PA": 9.0, "conditional_FTA": 9.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4397014", "player": "Quentin Grimes", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.240506329113924, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8571428571428571, "reference_TS": 0.9132420091324202, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4278077", "player": "Jarred Vanderbilt", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.139240506329115, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4278580", "player": "Sandro Mamukelashvili", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.240506329113924, "creation_assist_share": 0.17857142857142858, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4592691", "player": "Jake LaRavia", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.265822784810126, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.819672131147541, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4897943", "player": "Dalton Knecht", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.151898734177216, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "5060631", "player": "Adou Thiero", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.21518987341772, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5208333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4683774", "player": "Bronny James", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.20253164556962, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS": 0.3, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4702972", "player": "Chris Manon", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.151898734177216, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.8108108108108107, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 10.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4868423", "player": "Jaden Hardy", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.177215189873417, "creation_assist_share": 0.03571428571428571, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6211180124223602, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5113969", "player": "Cameron Carr", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.29113924050633, "creation_assist_share": 0.07142857142857142, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6538461538461539, "reference_TS": 0.6844380403458213, "conditional_FGA": 13.0, "conditional_3PA": 7.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." }, { "reference_date": "2026-10-07T02:00Z", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "4278580", "player": "Sandro Mamukelashvili", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 18.782608695652176, "creation_assist_share": 0.1, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.75, "conditional_FGA": 10.272727272727273, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.2727272727272725 }, { "player_id": "4592691", "player": "Jake LaRavia", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 22.956521739130434, "creation_assist_share": 0.05, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5408653846153846, "conditional_FGA": 7.2272727272727275, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.2272727272727275 }, { "player_id": "5060631", "player": "Adou Thiero", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 17.73913043478261, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.4781420765027322, "conditional_FGA": 6.181818181818182, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.181818181818182 }, { "player_id": "4397014", "player": "Quentin Grimes", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 24.0, "creation_assist_share": 0.15, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5882352941176471, "conditional_FGA": 8.09090909090909, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.090909090909091 }, { "player_id": "4683774", "player": "Bronny James", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.91304347826087, "creation_assist_share": 0.25, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4, "reference_TS": 0.4, "conditional_FGA": 5.136363636363637, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.1363636363636362 }, { "player_id": "3155535", "player": "Kevon Looney", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.565217391304348, "creation_assist_share": 0.1, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0454545454545454, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0454545454545454 }, { "player_id": "4278077", "player": "Jarred Vanderbilt", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.695652173913043, "creation_assist_share": 0.05, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 2.090909090909091, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.090909090909091 }, { "player_id": "4397134", "player": "Cole Swider", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.521739130434783, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6428571428571429, "reference_TS": 0.6428571428571429, "conditional_FGA": 7.136363636363637, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.1363636363636362 }, { "player_id": "4897943", "player": "Dalton Knecht", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 22.956521739130434, "creation_assist_share": 0.05, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.5635245901639344, "conditional_FGA": 8.181818181818182, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.181818181818182 }, { "player_id": "5114350", "player": "AK Okereke", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.565217391304348, "creation_assist_share": 0.1, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5154639175257733, "conditional_FGA": 3.090909090909091, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.090909090909091 }, { "player_id": "4702972", "player": "Chris Manon", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 22.956521739130434, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.4375, "conditional_FGA": 8.227272727272727, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.2272727272727275 }, { "player_id": "4868423", "player": "Jaden Hardy", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.82608695652174, "creation_assist_share": 0.15, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.47238372093023256, "conditional_FGA": 12.272727272727273, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.2727272727272725 }, { "player_id": "5113969", "player": "Cameron Carr", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.521739130434783, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.5122950819672131, "conditional_FGA": 4.045454545454545, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0454545454545454 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [ "Arthur Kaluma", "Walker Kessler", "Collin Sexton" ], "return_rule": "No current role sample => return opportunity unestimated; do not invent minutes." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "3155535", "player": "Kevon Looney", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "2-4", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "1", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "17", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "5060631", "player": "Adou Thiero", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "3-7", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "1", "PTS": "6", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "3945274", "player": "Luka Doncic", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "9-9", "FG": "6-16", "TO": "5", "3PT": "2-6", "AST": "3", "PTS": "23", "MIN": "25", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4066457", "player": "Austin Reaves", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "4-4", "FG": "2-7", "TO": "3", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "8", "PTS": "8", "MIN": "25", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4397014", "player": "Quentin Grimes", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "4-8", "TO": "6", "3PT": "2-4", "AST": "0", "PTS": "12", "MIN": "29", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4278077", "player": "Jarred Vanderbilt", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-2", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "9", "OREB": "3" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4278580", "player": "Sandro Mamukelashvili", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "7-10", "TO": "2", "3PT": "3-6", "AST": "4", "PTS": "19", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4397134", "player": "Cole Swider", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "1-1", "FG": "0-2", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "1", "MIN": "4", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4592691", "player": "Jake LaRavia", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "2-4", "FG": "6-9", "TO": "1", "3PT": "3-6", "AST": "3", "PTS": "17", "MIN": "24", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "5107258", "player": "William Kyle III", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "3", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "5114350", "player": "AK Okereke", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "1-2", "FG": "1-1", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "5", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "3907498", "player": "Matisse Thybulle", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-4", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "1", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4683774", "player": "Bronny James", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "1-3", "TO": "4", "3PT": "0-2", "AST": "6", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "22", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4702972", "player": "Chris Manon", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "0-2", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "6", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4868423", "player": "Jaden Hardy", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "4-6", "FG": "1-3", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "6", "MIN": "9", "OREB": "0" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh rendered October Trade filter empty; September both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 114.59756097560975, 115.7560975609756 ], "Primary": [ 112.31358760221711, 113.18782789207457 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 114.591465, 115.756095 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612747/lakers", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions" ], "findings": "Latest Doncic/Reaves/Grimes creation with Looney/Mamukelashvili center minutes. Kessler practice does not establish clearance; conditional return role unestimated without current sample. William Kyle waived October9, removed. Kaluma/Knecht/Sexton/Williams flags retain dates.", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "5113969", "player": "Cameron Carr", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-09T00:53Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4684443", "player": "Rafael Castro", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "3945274", "player": "Luka Doncic", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4397014", "player": "Quentin Grimes", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4868423", "player": "Jaden Hardy", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4683774", "player": "Bronny James", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4433599", "player": "Arthur Kaluma", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4433136", "player": "Walker Kessler", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T19:52Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4897943", "player": "Dalton Knecht", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-09T01:04Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4592691", "player": "Jake LaRavia", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "3155535", "player": "Kevon Looney", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4278580", "player": "Sandro Mamukelashvili", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4702972", "player": "Chris Manon", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "5114350", "player": "AK Okereke", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4066457", "player": "Austin Reaves", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:50Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4397134", "player": "Cole Swider", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "5060631", "player": "Adou Thiero", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "3907498", "player": "Matisse Thybulle", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4278077", "player": "Jarred Vanderbilt", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "13", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4433137", "player": "Ziaire Williams", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T20:03Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/13/roster?season=2027" } ], "reference_date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "comparison_player_ids": [ "3155535", "3907498", "3945274", "4066457", "4277811", "4278077", "4278580", "4397014", "4397134", "4433136", "4433137", "4433599", "4592691", "4683774", "4684443", "4702972", "4868423", "4897943", "5060631", "5107258", "5113969", "5114350" ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "player_id": "3945274", "player": "Luka Doncic", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "6", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3945274/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "22", "gamesStarted": "22", "avgMinutes": "35.7", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "9.8-21.2", "fieldGoalPct": "46.4", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "3.4-9.6", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "35.4", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "5.1-6.6", "freeThrowPct": "76.7", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.7", "avgAssists": "7.8", "avgTurnovers": "3.4", "avgPoints": "28.1" }, { "player_id": "3945274", "player": "Luka Doncic", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "13", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3945274/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "28", "gamesStarted": "28", "avgMinutes": "35.1", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "8.8-20.0", "fieldGoalPct": "43.8", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "3.6-9.6", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "37.9", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "7.0-8.9", "freeThrowPct": "79.1", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.9", "avgAssists": "7.5", "avgTurnovers": "3.7", "avgPoints": "28.2" }, { "player_id": "3945274", "player": "Luka Doncic", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": null, "category": "averages", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3945274/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "50", "gamesStarted": "50", "avgMinutes": "35.4", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "9.2-20.5", "fieldGoalPct": "45.0", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "3.5-9.6", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "36.8", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "6.2-7.9", "freeThrowPct": "78.2", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.8", "avgAssists": "7.7", "avgTurnovers": "3.6", "avgPoints": "28.2" }, { "player_id": "3945274", "player": "Luka Doncic", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "13", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3945274/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "64", "gamesStarted": "64", "avgMinutes": "35.8", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "10.8-22.8", "fieldGoalPct": "47.6", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "4.0-10.8", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "36.6", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "7.9-10.1", "freeThrowPct": "78.0", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.6", "avgAssists": "8.3", "avgTurnovers": "4.0", "avgPoints": "33.5" }, { "player_id": "3945274", "player": "Luka Doncic", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "6", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3945274/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "216-466", "fieldGoalPct": 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"reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5154639175257733, "conditional_FGA": 3.046511627906977, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0465116279069768 }, { "player_id": "4702972", "player": "Chris Manon", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.050420168067227, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 2.0930232558139537, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0930232558139537 }, { "player_id": "4868423", "player": "Jaden Hardy", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.07563025210084, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5319148936170213, "conditional_FGA": 3.0930232558139537, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0930232558139537 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4277811", "incumbent": "Collin Sexton", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-10T19:50Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "26", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "63", "gamesStarted": "61", "avgMinutes": "27.9", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "6.6-13.8", "fieldGoalPct": "48.0", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.7-4.3", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "40.6", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "3.4-4.0", "freeThrowPct": 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"historical_team_id": "4", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "26", "gamesStarted": "10", "avgMinutes": "26.0", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "6.1-12.6", "fieldGoalPct": "48.2", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.1-5.2", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "41.0", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "3.2-3.9", "freeThrowPct": "82.2", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.9", "avgAssists": "2.5", "avgTurnovers": "2.0", "avgPoints": "17.5" }, { "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": null, "category": "averages", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "68", "gamesStarted": "22", "avgMinutes": "23.7", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "5.3-10.9", "fieldGoalPct": "48.5", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1.6-4.1", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "40.1", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "3.2-3.8", "freeThrowPct": "85.5", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.6", "avgAssists": "3.3", "avgTurnovers": "2.1", "avgPoints": "15.4" }, { "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "26", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "416-867", "fieldGoalPct": "48.0", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "110-271", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "40.6", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "217-251", "freeThrowPct": "86.5", "offensiveRebounds": "60", "assists": "264", "turnovers": "160", "points": "1159" }, { "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "30", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "202-414", "fieldGoalPct": "48.8", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "57-145", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "39.3", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "135-154", "freeThrowPct": "87.7", "offensiveRebounds": "18", "assists": "157", "turnovers": "89", "points": "596" }, { "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "4", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "158-328", "fieldGoalPct": "48.2", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "55-134", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "41.0", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "83-101", "freeThrowPct": "82.2", "offensiveRebounds": "23", "assists": "66", "turnovers": "52", "points": "454" }, { "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": null, "category": "totals", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "360-742", "fieldGoalPct": "48.5", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "112-279", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "40.1", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "218-255", "freeThrowPct": "85.5", "offensiveRebounds": "41", "assists": "223", "turnovers": "141", "points": "1050" }, { "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "26", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.7", "scoringEfficiency": "1.337", "shootingEfficiency": "0.54" }, { "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "30", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.8", "scoringEfficiency": "1.440", "shootingEfficiency": "0.56" }, { "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "4", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.3", "scoringEfficiency": "1.384", "shootingEfficiency": "0.57" }, { "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": null, "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4277811/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.6", "scoringEfficiency": "1.415", "shootingEfficiency": "0.56" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401898390", "date": "2026-10-07T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Los Angeles Lakers", "player_id": "4277811", "player": "Collin Sexton", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898390" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "3155535", "player": "Kevon Looney", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 17.142857142857142, "creation_assist_share": 0.037037037037037035, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5319148936170213, "conditional_FGA": 2.0930232558139537, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0930232558139537 }, { "player_id": "5060631", "player": "Adou Thiero", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.176470588235293, "creation_assist_share": 0.037037037037037035, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.42857142857142855, "reference_TS": 0.42857142857142855, "conditional_FGA": 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4.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4683774", "player": "Bronny James", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 22.18487394957983, "creation_assist_share": 0.2222222222222222, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.5154639175257733, "conditional_FGA": 3.046511627906977, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0465116279069768 }, { "player_id": "4702972", "player": "Chris Manon", "reference_minutes": 6.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 6.050420168067227, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.3472222222222222, "conditional_FGA": 2.0930232558139537, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0930232558139537 }, { "player_id": "4868423", 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Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. 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{ "player_id": "4897449", "player": "Malevy Leons", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.009174311926605, "creation_assist_share": 0.047619047619047616, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.6329113924050632, "conditional_FGA": 5.425612052730697, "conditional_3PA": 1.2222222222222223, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.203389830508475 }, { "player_id": "4997536", "player": "Gui Santos", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.71559633027523, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5710659898477157, "conditional_FGA": 7.698681732580038, "conditional_3PA": 2.4444444444444446, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.254237288135593 }, { "player_id": "5170949", "player": "Alex Toohey", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.807339449541285, "creation_assist_share": 0.047619047619047616, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 2.1016949152542375, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.1016949152542375 }, { "player_id": "4397886", "player": "Charles Bassey", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.61467889908257, "creation_assist_share": 0.047619047619047616, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 6.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.551470588235294, "conditional_FGA": 10.508474576271187, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 10.508474576271187 }, { "player_id": "3134903", "player": "Gary Payton II", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.211009174311927, "creation_assist_share": 0.047619047619047616, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.5102040816326531, "conditional_FGA": 5.425612052730697, "conditional_3PA": 1.2222222222222223, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.203389830508475 }, { "player_id": "4066436", "player": "De'Anthony Melton", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.61467889908257, "creation_assist_share": 0.09523809523809523, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 4.546139359698682, "conditional_3PA": 2.4444444444444446, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.1016949152542375 }, { "player_id": "4397040", "player": "Brandon Williams", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.61467889908257, "creation_assist_share": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4444444444444444, "reference_TS": 0.5329457364341085, "conditional_FGA": 9.800376647834275, "conditional_3PA": 2.4444444444444446, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.3559322033898304 }, { "player_id": "4433149", "player": "LJ Cryer", "reference_minutes": 3.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.302752293577982, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.1288659793814433, "conditional_FGA": 3.32391713747646, "conditional_3PA": 1.2222222222222223, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.1016949152542375 }, { "player_id": "4433159", "player": "Dalen Terry", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.110091743119266, "creation_assist_share": 0.09523809523809523, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5122950819672131, "conditional_FGA": 4.374764595103578, "conditional_3PA": 1.2222222222222223, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.152542372881356 }, { "player_id": "4897262", "player": "Will Richard", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.71559633027523, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3333333333333333, "conditional_FGA": 3.32391713747646, "conditional_3PA": 1.2222222222222223, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.1016949152542375 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Al Horford", "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." }, { "reference_date": "2026-10-07T02:00Z", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "6589", "player": "Draymond Green", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 15.517241379310345, "creation_assist_share": 0.25, "reference_AST": 8.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.5, "reference_TS": 1.5, "conditional_FGA": 1.0606060606060606, "conditional_3PA": 1.0606060606060606, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4997536", "player": "Gui Santos", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.724137931034484, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.7352941176470589, "conditional_FGA": 3.0606060606060606, "conditional_3PA": 1.0606060606060606, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5175737", "player": "Yaxel Lendeborg", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.724137931034484, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7272727272727273, "reference_TS": 0.7154882154882154, "conditional_FGA": 11.181818181818182, "conditional_3PA": 3.1818181818181817, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "3975", "player": "Stephen Curry", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.482758620689655, "creation_assist_share": 0.15625, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.8298755186721991, "conditional_FGA": 7.363636363636363, "conditional_3PA": 6.363636363636363, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4709138", "player": "Brandin Podziemski", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.655172413793103, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6818181818181818, "reference_TS": 0.6734006734006733, "conditional_FGA": 11.181818181818182, "conditional_3PA": 3.1818181818181817, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 8.0 }, { "player_id": "2990969", "player": "Georges Niang", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.655172413793103, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3125, "reference_TS": 0.3941441441441441, "conditional_FGA": 8.181818181818182, "conditional_3PA": 3.1818181818181817, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4703396", "player": "Graham Ike", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.413793103448276, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.5208333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 4.0606060606060606, "conditional_3PA": 1.0606060606060606, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4897449", "player": "Malevy Leons", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 10.344827586206897, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 3.0606060606060606, "conditional_3PA": 1.0606060606060606, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5170949", "player": "Alex Toohey", "reference_minutes": 3.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.103448275862069, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.5, "reference_TS": 1.5, "conditional_FGA": 1.0606060606060606, "conditional_3PA": 1.0606060606060606, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4397886", "player": "Charles Bassey", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.482758620689655, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "3134903", "player": "Gary Payton II", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.551724137931036, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 2.0606060606060606, "conditional_3PA": 1.0606060606060606, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4066436", "player": "De'Anthony Melton", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.620689655172413, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.35714285714285715, "reference_TS": 0.5136986301369864, "conditional_FGA": 7.242424242424242, "conditional_3PA": 4.242424242424242, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4397040", "player": "Brandon Williams", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.620689655172413, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 5.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6443298969072165, "conditional_FGA": 6.0606060606060606, "conditional_3PA": 1.0606060606060606, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4433149", "player": "LJ Cryer", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.310344827586206, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2, "reference_TS": 0.2, "conditional_FGA": 5.242424242424242, "conditional_3PA": 4.242424242424242, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4433159", "player": "Dalen Terry", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.275862068965518, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6944444444444444, "conditional_FGA": 2.0606060606060606, "conditional_3PA": 1.0606060606060606, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4897262", "player": "Will Richard", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.517241379310345, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 3.121212121212121, "conditional_3PA": 2.121212121212121, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Al Horford", "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." }, { "reference_date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "4897449", "player": "Malevy Leons", "reference_minutes": 33.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 37.35849056603774, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.22727272727272727, "reference_TS": 0.22727272727272727, "conditional_FGA": 13.642210144927535, "conditional_3PA": 5.913043478260869, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.729166666666667 }, { "player_id": "4397886", "player": "Charles Bassey", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 27.169811320754718, "creation_assist_share": 0.05, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8571428571428571, "reference_TS": 0.8248730964467005, "conditional_FGA": 7.729166666666667, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.4, "conditional_2PA": 7.729166666666667 }, { "player_id": "4397040", "player": "Brandon Williams", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.37735849056604, "creation_assist_share": 0.2, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6818181818181818, "reference_TS": 0.6661442006269592, "conditional_FGA": 13.268115942028986, "conditional_3PA": 4.434782608695652, "conditional_FTA": 4.8, "conditional_2PA": 8.833333333333334 }, { "player_id": "4433159", "player": "Dalen Terry", "reference_minutes": 43.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 48.679245283018865, "creation_assist_share": 0.45, "reference_AST": 9.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6111111111111112, "reference_TS": 0.6091101694915254, "conditional_FGA": 21.745471014492754, "conditional_3PA": 7.391304347826087, "conditional_FTA": 2.4, "conditional_2PA": 14.354166666666666 }, { "player_id": "4897262", "player": "Will Richard", "reference_minutes": 33.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 37.35849056603774, "creation_assist_share": 0.05, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6428571428571429, "reference_TS": 0.7780082987551866, "conditional_FGA": 8.85144927536232, "conditional_3PA": 4.434782608695652, "conditional_FTA": 7.2, "conditional_2PA": 4.416666666666667 }, { "player_id": "4703396", "player": "Graham Ike", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 27.169811320754718, "creation_assist_share": 0.1, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5555555555555556, "reference_TS": 0.5060728744939271, "conditional_FGA": 11.059782608695652, "conditional_3PA": 4.434782608695652, "conditional_FTA": 2.4, "conditional_2PA": 6.625 }, { "player_id": "5170949", "player": "Alex Toohey", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.50943396226415, "creation_assist_share": 0.1, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6443298969072165, "conditional_FGA": 3.6865942028985508, "conditional_3PA": 1.4782608695652173, "conditional_FTA": 2.4, "conditional_2PA": 2.2083333333333335 }, { "player_id": "4433149", "player": "LJ Cryer", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.37735849056604, "creation_assist_share": 0.05, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5102040816326531, "conditional_FGA": 7.017210144927536, "conditional_3PA": 5.913043478260869, "conditional_FTA": 2.4, "conditional_2PA": 1.1041666666666667 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Al Horford", "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [ "Jimmy Butler III", "Moses Moody", "Kristaps Porzingis" ], "return_rule": "No current role sample => return opportunity unestimated; do not invent minutes." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "player_id": "6589", "player": "Draymond Green", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "1-3", "FG": "1-1", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "5", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "23", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "player_id": "4997536", "player": "Gui Santos", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "3-4", "FG": "6-9", "TO": "5", "3PT": "0-2", "AST": "1", "PTS": "15", "MIN": "24", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "player_id": "5175737", "player": "Yaxel Lendeborg", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "10-14", "TO": "2", "3PT": "1-3", "AST": "6", "PTS": "23", "MIN": "24", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "player_id": "3975", "player": "Stephen Curry", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "3-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "2-4", "AST": "2", "PTS": 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"https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401918010", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-5", "TO": "2", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "1", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "16", "OREB": "0" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4397886", "player": "Charles Bassey", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.727272727272727, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.9057971014492754, "conditional_FGA": 1.1282051282051282, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.296296296296297, "conditional_2PA": 1.1282051282051282 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. 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"category": "totals", "current_team": "Golden State Warriors", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432171/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "246-568", "fieldGoalPct": "43.3", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "126-337", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "37.4", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "106-133", "freeThrowPct": "79.7", "offensiveRebounds": "52", "assists": "96", "turnovers": "54", "points": "724" }, { "player_id": "4432171", "player": "Moses Moody", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "9", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Golden State Warriors", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4432171/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "245-557", "fieldGoalPct": "44.0", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "151-377", "threePointFieldGoalPct": 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"0.58" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "player_id": "4432171", "player": "Moses Moody", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129" }, { "event_id": "401898390", "date": "2026-10-07T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "player_id": "4432171", "player": "Moses Moody", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898390" }, { "event_id": "401918010", "date": "2026-10-04T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "player_id": "4432171", "player": "Moses Moody", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "LEFT PATELLAR TENDON STRAIN", "source": 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2.2564102564102564 }, { "player_id": "4897449", "player": "Malevy Leons", "reference_minutes": 4.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 4.363636363636363, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.2572373862696447, "conditional_3PA": 1.1290322580645162, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.1282051282051282 }, { "player_id": "3134903", "player": "Gary Payton II", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.727272727272727, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.1290322580645162, "conditional_3PA": 1.1290322580645162, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4066436", "player": "De'Anthony Melton", "reference_minutes": 18.0, "reference_starter": false, 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"https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3102531/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "77-178", "fieldGoalPct": "43.3", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "23-74", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "31.1", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "65-77", "freeThrowPct": "84.4", "offensiveRebounds": "19", "assists": "35", "turnovers": "25", "points": "242" }, { "player_id": "3102531", "player": "Kristaps Porzingis", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": null, "category": "totals", "current_team": "Golden State Warriors", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3102531/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "173-388", "fieldGoalPct": "44.6", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "54-160", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "33.8", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "133-158", "freeThrowPct": "84.2", "offensiveRebounds": "40", "assists": "81", "turnovers": "41", "points": "533" }, { "player_id": "3102531", "player": "Kristaps Porzingis", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "2", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Golden State Warriors", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3102531/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.6", "scoringEfficiency": "1.425", "shootingEfficiency": "0.57" }, { "player_id": "3102531", "player": "Kristaps Porzingis", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "1", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Golden State Warriors", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3102531/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.9", "scoringEfficiency": "1.386", "shootingEfficiency": "0.53" }, { "player_id": "3102531", "player": "Kristaps Porzingis", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "9", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Golden State Warriors", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3102531/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.4", "scoringEfficiency": "1.360", "shootingEfficiency": "0.50" }, { "player_id": "3102531", "player": "Kristaps Porzingis", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": null, "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Golden State Warriors", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3102531/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.0", "scoringEfficiency": "1.374", "shootingEfficiency": "0.52" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401898390", "date": "2026-10-07T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "player_id": "3102531", "player": "Kristaps Porzingis", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898390" }, { "event_id": "401918010", "date": "2026-10-04T23:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Golden State Warriors", "player_id": "3102531", "player": "Kristaps Porzingis", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "NOT WITH TEAM", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401918010" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4397886", "player": "Charles Bassey", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.727272727272727, "creation_assist_share": 0.043478260869565216, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 0.9057971014492754, "conditional_FGA": 1.1282051282051282, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.296296296296297, "conditional_2PA": 1.1282051282051282 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers", "market": { "id": "401898718", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898718", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.702967+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.924221+00:00", "home_line": -2.5, "away_line": 2.5, "home_line_price": -110.0, "away_line_price": -110.0, "total": 227.5, "under_line": 227.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": -135.0, "away_ml": 114.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -2.5, "average_total": 227.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.1585365853658516, "combined": 230.35365853658536, "spread_buffer": -1.3414634146341484, "total_difference": 2.853658536585357 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.1585365853658516, "combined": 230.35365853658536, "spread_buffer": -1.3414634146341484, "total_difference": 2.853658536585357 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 0.874240289857454, "combined": 225.50141549429168, "spread_buffer": -1.625759710142546, "total_difference": -1.9985845057083225 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 0.874240289857454, "combined": 225.50141549429168, "spread_buffer": -1.625759710142546, "total_difference": -1.9985845057083225 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.1646300000000025, "combined": 230.34756, "spread_buffer": -1.3353699999999975, "total_difference": 2.847559999999987 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.1646300000000025, "combined": 230.34756, "spread_buffer": -1.3353699999999975, "total_difference": 2.847559999999987 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": 1.1646300000000025, "combined": 230.34756, "spread_buffer": -1.3353699999999975, "total_difference": 2.847559999999987 }, "adjusted": { "margin": 1.1646300000000025, "combined": 230.34756, "spread_buffer": -1.3353699999999975, "total_difference": 2.847559999999987 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": false, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": false, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, -1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401901826", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401901826", "date": "2026-10-14T02:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "5310", "fullName": "Golden 1 Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Sacramento", "state": "CA" } }, "away": "22", "away_name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "23", "home_name": "Sacramento Kings", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 116.73780487804878, 114.8841463414634 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.73780487804878, 114.8841463414634 ], "conditional_score": [ 116.73780487804878, 114.8841463414634 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 115.47560975609755, 115.76829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0.0, "prior_rates": [ 111.0, 121.0 ], "current_rates": [ 115.60772357723577, 115.60772357723577 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.58273031148986, "mean_margin_error": 13.284363062004108, "mean_total_error": 11.019633411695558, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 98.23780500000001, 138.237805 ], "home": [ 93.3841475, 133.38414749999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 115.37716518423461, 112.18363859787532 ], "adjusted_score": [ 115.37716518423461, 112.18363859787532 ], "conditional_score": [ 115.37716518423461, 112.18363859787532 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2792, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T01:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "908b352170b64d5da6773996ab99d15522ad83b83d62bcef1698642fdf619d5b" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 0, "accuracy": 0.0, "wilson95": [ 0.0, 0.4898908364545973 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 9.695368619799016, "mean_margin_error": 14.866714897441717, "mean_total_error": 10.858078193211853, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 98.23780500000001, 138.237805 ], "home": [ 93.3841475, 133.38414749999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "conditional_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.47561, "pa": 115.768295 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 111.0, "pa": 121.0 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 98.23780500000001, 138.237805 ], "home": [ 93.3841475, 133.38414749999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "conditional_score": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.47561, "pa": 115.768295 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 111.0, "pa": 121.0 } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Previous complete NBA regular season used for preseason; WNBA complete regular season if any game." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "scenario": "base", "n": 4, "hits": 1, "accuracy": 0.25, "wilson95": [ 0.04558726080970055, 0.6993581574175981 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 8.5945125, "mean_margin_error": 13.307924999999997, "mean_total_error": 10.993902500000004, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 98.23780500000001, 138.237805 ], "home": [ 93.3841475, 133.38414749999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "Sacramento Kings: Sabonis and Monk practiced Monday but no Tuesday clearance. Cardwell calf uncertain; Raynaud newly Out after latest game so remove and redistribute big-man opportunities to Achiuwa/Mogbo in the conditional branch. Earlier full rotation remains return sensitivity. Portland Trail Blazers: Latest October12 reference has Holiday starting after Lillard rest, with Henderson reserve creation. Sharpe absence remains; Lillard/Williams/Youngblood Tuesday returns conditional using prior observed rotations. Jaylen Martin waived, removed. London blowout separated from NBA opponent sample.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 0 current. Primary uses 2792 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2026 season-label full regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean with retained venue term. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "Golden 1 Center; listed 2026-10-14T02:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs POR 10:00 pm ET Golden 1 Center Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only.", "details": { "event_id": "401901826", "sport": "NBA", "away": "Portland Trail Blazers", "home": "Sacramento Kings", "start_et": "2026-10-13T22:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T02:00Z", "venue": { "id": "5310", "fullName": "Golden 1 Center", "address": { "city": "Sacramento", "state": "CA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 1, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0.0", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 10:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 10:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.365786+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612758/schedule" ], "context": [ "Official NBA home-team schedule corroborates Oct 13 vs POR 10:00 pm ET Golden 1 Center Preseason. NBA rotation and minutes volatility; tracking-only." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "previous_game": { "id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "3423", "fullName": "Moda Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Portland", "state": "OR" } }, "away": "134478", "away_name": "London Lions", "away_score": 66.0, "home": "22", "home_name": "Portland Trail Blazers", "home_score": 119.0, "day": 20738.833333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 1, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "previous_game": { "id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "6270", "fullName": "Chase Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Francisco", "state": "CA" } }, "away": "23", "away_name": "Sacramento Kings", "away_score": 106.0, "home": "9", "home_name": "Golden State Warriors", "home_score": 111.0, "day": 20737.020833333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "stage_label": "Preseason / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. 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"conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 14.784313725490197 }, { "player_id": "3064440", "player": "Zach LaVine", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 25.674418604651162, "creation_assist_share": 0.14814814814814814, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.5392156862745099, "conditional_FGA": 8.880672268907563, "conditional_3PA": 2.057142857142857, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.823529411764706 }, { "player_id": "5142620", "player": "Darius Acuff Jr.", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 25.674418604651162, "creation_assist_share": 0.037037037037037035, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3333333333333333, "reference_TS": 0.3778337531486146, "conditional_FGA": 16.298039215686273, "conditional_3PA": 7.2, "conditional_FTA": 2.4, "conditional_2PA": 9.098039215686274 }, { "player_id": "4395650", "player": "Leaky Black", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.279069767441861, "creation_assist_share": 0.037037037037037035, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.2745098039215685, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.2745098039215685 }, { "player_id": "4917149", "player": "Alex Karaban", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 22.325581395348838, "creation_assist_share": 0.07407407407407407, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0174418604651163, "conditional_FGA": 3.194397759103641, "conditional_3PA": 2.057142857142857, "conditional_FTA": 1.2, "conditional_2PA": 1.1372549019607843 }, { "player_id": "5107897", "player": "Jonathan Mogbo", "reference_minutes": 22.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 24.558139534883722, "creation_assist_share": 0.1111111111111111, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7142857142857143, "reference_TS": 0.684931506849315, "conditional_FGA": 7.852100840336134, "conditional_3PA": 1.0285714285714285, "conditional_FTA": 4.8, "conditional_2PA": 6.823529411764706 }, { "player_id": "4433174", "player": "Dylan Cardwell", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.395348837209303, "creation_assist_share": 0.07407407407407407, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 6.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.4, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "2583639", "player": "Elfrid Payton", "reference_minutes": 10.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 11.162790697674419, "creation_assist_share": 0.07407407407407407, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 2.2745098039215685, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.2745098039215685 }, { "player_id": "4279318", "player": "Daeqwon Plowden", "reference_minutes": 11.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.279069767441861, "creation_assist_share": 0.037037037037037035, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.75, "conditional_FGA": 10.72044817927171, "conditional_3PA": 6.171428571428572, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.549019607843137 }, { "player_id": "4397654", "player": "Adam Flagler", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 8.930232558139535, "creation_assist_share": 0.037037037037037035, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 4.114285714285714, "conditional_3PA": 4.114285714285714, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4702384", "player": "Nique Clifford", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.395348837209303, "creation_assist_share": 0.2222222222222222, "reference_AST": 6.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.2857142857142857, "reference_TS": 0.2857142857142857, "conditional_FGA": 7.852100840336134, "conditional_3PA": 1.0285714285714285, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.823529411764706 }, { "player_id": "5106058", "player": "Emanuel Sharp", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.441860465116278, "creation_assist_share": 0.037037037037037035, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.4910714285714286, "conditional_FGA": 9.257142857142858, "conditional_3PA": 9.257142857142858, "conditional_FTA": 6.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Maxime Raynaud", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [ "Malik Monk" ], "return_rule": "No current role sample => return opportunity unestimated; do not invent minutes." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4431679", "player": "Precious Achiuwa", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "3-8", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-2", "AST": "1", "PTS": "8", "MIN": "27", "OREB": "3" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4594327", "player": "Keegan Murray", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "1-2", "FG": "2-3", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "5", "MIN": "8", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "3064440", "player": "Zach LaVine", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "5-13", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "2", "PTS": "11", "MIN": "23", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "3907387", "player": "Ben Simmons", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "3-4", "FG": "2-4", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "1", "PTS": "7", "MIN": "9", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "5142620", "player": "Darius Acuff Jr.", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "5-5", "FG": "8-15", "TO": "4", "3PT": "4-6", "AST": "8", "PTS": "25", "MIN": "27", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4065732", "player": "De'Andre Hunter", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-8", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "1", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "19", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4395650", "player": "Leaky Black", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "3-4", "TO": "1", "3PT": "3-3", "AST": "0", "PTS": "9", "MIN": "17", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4917149", "player": "Alex Karaban", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-1", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "1", "PTS": "2", "MIN": "12", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "5107897", "player": "Jonathan Mogbo", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "4-5", "FG": "4-8", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "1", "PTS": "12", "MIN": "24", "OREB": "4" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4898371", "player": "Maxime Raynaud", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "3-4", "FG": "3-3", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "1", "PTS": "10", "MIN": "9", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4279318", "player": "Daeqwon Plowden", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "0-5", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "1", "PTS": "0", "MIN": "16", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4592965", "player": "Tristen Newton", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "1-1", "FG": "1-1", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "0", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "5", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4702384", "player": "Nique Clifford", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "1-2", "FG": "1-10", "TO": "4", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "3", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "23", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "5106058", "player": "Emanuel Sharp", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "3-8", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "0", "PTS": "7", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "2583639", "player": "Elfrid Payton", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399" }, { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4397654", "player": "Adam Flagler", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh rendered October Trade filter empty; September both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 116.73780487804878, 114.8841463414634 ], "Primary": [ 115.37716518423461, 112.18363859787532 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612758/kings", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions" ], "findings": "Sabonis and Monk practiced Monday but no Tuesday clearance. Cardwell calf uncertain; Raynaud newly Out after latest game so remove and redistribute big-man opportunities to Achiuwa/Mogbo in the conditional branch. Earlier full rotation remains return sensitivity.", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4431679", "player": "Precious Achiuwa", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/23/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "5142620", "player": "Darius Acuff Jr.", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/23/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4395650", "player": "Leaky Black", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/23/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4433174", "player": "Dylan Cardwell", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T20:31Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/23/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4702384", "player": "Nique Clifford", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/23/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4397654", "player": "Adam Flagler", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/23/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4065732", "player": "De'Andre Hunter", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/23/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4917149", "player": "Alex Karaban", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/23/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "3064440", "player": "Zach LaVine", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/23/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "5107897", "player": "Jonathan Mogbo", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/23/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "23", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4066262", "player": "Malik Monk", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T20:34Z" } 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"preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4592965", "player": "Tristen Newton", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898716" } ], "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL240_MINUTES_SHOTS_CREATION_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401901826", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 116.73780487804878, 114.8841463414634 ], "Primary": [ 115.37716518423461, 112.18363859787532 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": "4433174", "incumbent": "Dylan Cardwell", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T20:31Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4433174", "player": "Dylan Cardwell", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433174/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "44", "gamesStarted": "1", "avgMinutes": "20.6", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.4-4.1", "fieldGoalPct": "58.7", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.0-0.1", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "50.0", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "0.6-1.2", "freeThrowPct": "51.0", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "3.3", "avgAssists": "1.4", "avgTurnovers": "0.9", "avgPoints": "5.4" }, { "player_id": "4433174", "player": "Dylan Cardwell", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433174/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "105-179", "fieldGoalPct": "58.7", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "2-4", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "50.0", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "26-51", "freeThrowPct": "51.0", "offensiveRebounds": "147", "assists": "62", "turnovers": "39", "points": "238" }, { "player_id": "4433174", "player": "Dylan Cardwell", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4433174/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.6", "scoringEfficiency": "1.330", "shootingEfficiency": "0.59" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4433174", "player": "Dylan Cardwell", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "0-2", "FG": "0-0", "TO": "2", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "2", "PTS": "0", "MIN": "12", "OREB": "6" }, { "event_id": "401898716", "date": "2026-10-06T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4433174", "player": "Dylan Cardwell", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898716", "FT": "1-2", "FG": "4-7", "TO": "3", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "3", "PTS": "9", "MIN": "29", "OREB": "4" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. 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No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4066262", "incumbent": "Malik Monk", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T20:34Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4066262", "player": "Malik Monk", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066262/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "65", "gamesStarted": "45", "avgMinutes": "31.6", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "6.3-14.4", "fieldGoalPct": "43.9", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.1-6.6", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "32.5", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "2.4-2.7", "freeThrowPct": "86.5", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.5", "avgAssists": "5.6", "avgTurnovers": "2.4", "avgPoints": "17.2" }, { "player_id": "4066262", "player": "Malik Monk", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066262/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "62", "gamesStarted": "3", "avgMinutes": "22.0", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "4.5-10.2", "fieldGoalPct": "43.8", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.0-5.1", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "39.5", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "1.5-1.7", "freeThrowPct": "87.8", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "0.2", "avgAssists": "3.0", "avgTurnovers": "1.5", "avgPoints": "12.5" }, { "player_id": "4066262", "player": "Malik Monk", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066262/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "412-939", "fieldGoalPct": "43.9", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "139-428", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "32.5", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "154-178", "freeThrowPct": "86.5", "offensiveRebounds": "30", "assists": "362", "turnovers": "159", "points": "1117" }, { "player_id": "4066262", "player": "Malik Monk", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066262/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "277-632", "fieldGoalPct": "43.8", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "124-314", "threePointFieldGoalPct": 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"reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5882352941176471, "conditional_FGA": 8.271186440677965, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.9523809523809526, "conditional_2PA": 8.271186440677965 }, { "player_id": "4279318", "player": "Daeqwon Plowden", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.623376623376622, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 5.171244886031561, "conditional_3PA": 3.103448275862069, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0677966101694913 }, { "player_id": "4592965", "player": "Tristen Newton", "reference_minutes": 5.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 5.194805194805195, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0416666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 1.0338983050847457, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.1904761904761905, "conditional_2PA": 1.0338983050847457 }, { "player_id": "4702384", "player": "Nique Clifford", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.896103896103895, "creation_assist_share": 0.15789473684210525, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.1, "reference_TS": 0.1378676470588235, "conditional_FGA": 10.340736411455289, "conditional_3PA": 3.103448275862069, "conditional_FTA": 2.380952380952381, "conditional_2PA": 7.237288135593221 }, { "player_id": "5106058", "player": "Emanuel Sharp", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.4375, "conditional_FGA": 8.27352425482174, "conditional_3PA": 4.137931034482759, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, 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Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4898371", "incumbent": "Maxime Raynaud", "status": [ { "status": "Out", "date": "2026-10-11T18:14Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4898371", "player": "Maxime Raynaud", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4898371/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "74", "gamesStarted": "56", "avgMinutes": "26.5", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "5.2-9.1", "fieldGoalPct": "57.1", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.3-1.0", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "32.4", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "1.8-2.3", "freeThrowPct": "78.6", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "1.9", "avgAssists": "1.4", "avgTurnovers": "1.3", "avgPoints": "12.5" }, { "player_id": "4898371", "player": "Maxime Raynaud", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4898371/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "383-671", "fieldGoalPct": "57.1", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "24-74", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "32.4", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "132-168", "freeThrowPct": "78.6", "offensiveRebounds": "142", "assists": "100", "turnovers": "94", "points": "922" }, { "player_id": "4898371", "player": "Maxime Raynaud", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4898371/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.1", "scoringEfficiency": "1.374", "shootingEfficiency": "0.59" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401898399", "date": "2026-10-11T00:30Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4898371", "player": "Maxime Raynaud", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898399", "FT": "3-4", "FG": "3-3", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "1", "PTS": "10", "MIN": "9", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401898717", "date": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4898371", "player": "Maxime Raynaud", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898717", "FT": "3-4", "FG": "5-8", "TO": "4", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "2", "PTS": "13", "MIN": "24", "OREB": "4" }, { "event_id": "401898716", "date": "2026-10-06T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "4898371", "player": "Maxime Raynaud", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898716", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "5-11", "TO": "5", "3PT": "0-2", "AST": "2", "PTS": "12", "MIN": "24", "OREB": "3" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "3155942", "incumbent": "Domantas Sabonis", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T20:32Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "3155942", "player": "Domantas Sabonis", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3155942/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "70", "gamesStarted": "70", "avgMinutes": "34.7", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "7.5-12.8", "fieldGoalPct": "59.0", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.9-2.2", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "41.7", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "3.1-4.1", "freeThrowPct": "75.4", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "3.8", "avgAssists": "6.0", "avgTurnovers": "2.9", "avgPoints": "19.1" }, { "player_id": "3155942", "player": "Domantas Sabonis", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3155942/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "19", "gamesStarted": "15", "avgMinutes": "29.7", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "6.3-11.6", "fieldGoalPct": "54.3", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.3-1.4", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "18.5", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "2.9-4.1", "freeThrowPct": "72.7", "avgOffensiveRebounds": "3.4", "avgAssists": "4.1", "avgTurnovers": "2.7", "avgPoints": "15.8" }, { "player_id": "3155942", "player": "Domantas Sabonis", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3155942/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "527-893", "fieldGoalPct": "59.0", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "65-156", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "41.7", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "218-289", "freeThrowPct": "75.4", "offensiveRebounds": "267", "assists": "423", "turnovers": "202", "points": "1337" }, { "player_id": "3155942", "player": "Domantas Sabonis", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3155942/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "120-221", "fieldGoalPct": "54.3", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "5-27", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "18.5", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "56-77", "freeThrowPct": "72.7", "offensiveRebounds": "64", "assists": "78", "turnovers": "51", "points": "301" }, { "player_id": "3155942", "player": "Domantas Sabonis", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3155942/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "2.1", "scoringEfficiency": "1.497", "shootingEfficiency": "0.63" }, { "player_id": "3155942", "player": "Domantas Sabonis", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "23", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Sacramento Kings", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/3155942/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.5", "scoringEfficiency": "1.362", "shootingEfficiency": "0.55" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401898716", "date": "2026-10-06T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Sacramento Kings", "player_id": "3155942", "player": "Domantas Sabonis", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401898716", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "3", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "3", "PTS": "4", "MIN": "10", "OREB": "1" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4431679", "player": "Precious Achiuwa", "reference_minutes": 27.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 28.051948051948052, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.4504504504504504, "conditional_FGA": 8.272355347749855, "conditional_3PA": 2.0689655172413794, "conditional_FTA": 2.380952380952381, "conditional_2PA": 6.203389830508475 }, { "player_id": "4594327", "player": "Keegan Murray", "reference_minutes": 8.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 8.311688311688311, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6443298969072165, "conditional_FGA": 3.102279368790181, "conditional_3PA": 1.0344827586206897, "conditional_FTA": 2.380952380952381, "conditional_2PA": 2.0677966101694913 }, { "player_id": "3064440", "player": "Zach LaVine", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 23.896103896103895, "creation_assist_share": 0.10526315789473684, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4230769230769231, "reference_TS": 0.4230769230769231, "conditional_FGA": 13.44301578024547, "conditional_3PA": 4.137931034482759, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 9.305084745762711 }, { "player_id": "3907387", "player": "Ben Simmons", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 9.35064935064935, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.607638888888889, "conditional_FGA": 4.135593220338983, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.761904761904762, "conditional_2PA": 4.135593220338983 }, { "player_id": "5142620", "player": "Darius Acuff Jr.", "reference_minutes": 27.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 28.051948051948052, "creation_assist_share": 0.42105263157894735, "reference_AST": 8.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.7267441860465117, "conditional_FGA": 15.511981297486848, "conditional_3PA": 6.206896551724138, "conditional_FTA": 5.9523809523809526, "conditional_2PA": 9.305084745762711 }, { "player_id": "4065732", "player": "De'Andre Hunter", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.74025974025974, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.25, "reference_TS": 0.25, "conditional_FGA": 8.272939801285798, "conditional_3PA": 3.103448275862069, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.169491525423729 }, { "player_id": "4395650", "player": "Leaky Black", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.662337662337663, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.125, "reference_TS": 1.125, "conditional_FGA": 4.137346580946815, "conditional_3PA": 3.103448275862069, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0338983050847457 }, { "player_id": "4917149", "player": "Alex Karaban", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.467532467532468, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0338983050847457, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0338983050847457 }, { "player_id": "5107897", "player": "Jonathan Mogbo", "reference_minutes": 24.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 24.935064935064936, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5882352941176471, "conditional_FGA": 8.271186440677965, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 5.9523809523809526, "conditional_2PA": 8.271186440677965 }, { "player_id": "4279318", "player": "Daeqwon Plowden", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.623376623376622, "creation_assist_share": 0.05263157894736842, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 5.171244886031561, "conditional_3PA": 3.103448275862069, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0677966101694913 }, { "player_id": "4592965", "player": "Tristen Newton", "reference_minutes": 5.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 5.194805194805195, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.0, "reference_TS": 1.0416666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 1.0338983050847457, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.1904761904761905, "conditional_2PA": 1.0338983050847457 }, { "player_id": "4702384", "player": "Nique Clifford", "reference_minutes": 23.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 23.896103896103895, "creation_assist_share": 0.15789473684210525, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.1, "reference_TS": 0.1378676470588235, "conditional_FGA": 10.340736411455289, "conditional_3PA": 3.103448275862069, "conditional_FTA": 2.380952380952381, "conditional_2PA": 7.237288135593221 }, { "player_id": "5106058", "player": "Emanuel Sharp", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 21.818181818181817, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.4375, "conditional_FGA": 8.27352425482174, "conditional_3PA": 4.137931034482759, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.135593220338983 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." } ] }, { "sport": "NBA", "event_id": "401901826", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "rotation": [ { "player_id": "4431736", "player": "Toumani Camara", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7142857142857143, "reference_TS": 0.7990867579908676, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4683021", "player": "Deni Avdija", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.875, "reference_TS": 0.8458646616541353, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5105565", "player": "Donovan Clingan", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7142857142857143, "reference_TS": 0.739247311827957, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "3995", "player": "Jrue Holiday", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.6, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4279888", "player": "Ja Morant", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 13.941908713692946, "creation_assist_share": 0.15625, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4593043", "player": "John Tonje", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.92116182572614, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.1288659793814433, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4610139", "player": "Jeremy Sochan", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4066399", "player": "Micah Potter", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.4146919431279621, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4592435", "player": "Branden Carlson", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.941908713692946, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.75, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "5217746", "player": "Yang Hansen", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8125, "reference_TS": 0.8125, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "4578893", "player": "Vit Krejci", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.7267441860465116, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4683678", "player": "Scoot Henderson", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.933609958506224, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8571428571428571, "reference_TS": 0.8413461538461539, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4703889", "player": "Jayson Kent", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5081727", "player": "Sidy Cissoko", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.3, "reference_TS": 1.3, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction.", "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "alternate_actual_preseason_reference_branches": [ { "reference_date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "rotation": [ { "player_id": "4431736", "player": "Toumani Camara", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.07949790794979, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.6443298969072165, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4683021", "player": "Deni Avdija", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 21.08786610878661, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8076923076923077, "reference_TS": 0.7791327913279132, "conditional_FGA": 13.0, "conditional_3PA": 6.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "5105565", "player": "Donovan Clingan", "reference_minutes": 20.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 20.0836820083682, "creation_assist_share": 0.058823529411764705, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.14285714285714285, "reference_TS": 0.20161290322580644, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "6606", "player": "Damian Lillard", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.07949790794979, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5909090909090909, "reference_TS": 0.6313131313131313, "conditional_FGA": 11.0, "conditional_3PA": 8.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4279888", "player": "Ja Morant", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 19.07949790794979, "creation_assist_share": 0.14705882352941177, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 4.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.375, "reference_TS": 0.4504504504504504, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 7.0 }, { "player_id": "4593043", "player": "John Tonje", "reference_minutes": 3.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.01255230125523, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": null, "reference_TS": null, "conditional_FGA": 0.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4610139", "player": "Jeremy Sochan", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.03765690376569, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8333333333333334, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4066211", "player": "Robert Williams III", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.05857740585774, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 4.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.8, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4066399", "player": "Micah Potter", "reference_minutes": 13.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 13.05439330543933, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8333333333333334, "reference_TS": 0.8879781420765027, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4592435", "player": "Branden Carlson", "reference_minutes": 9.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 9.03765690376569, "creation_assist_share": 0.0, "reference_AST": 0.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.5, "reference_TS": 0.5, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "5217746", "player": "Yang Hansen", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.05020920502092, "creation_assist_share": 0.11764705882352941, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.7731958762886598, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "3995", "player": "Jrue Holiday", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 19.07949790794979, "creation_assist_share": 0.14705882352941177, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3125, "reference_TS": 0.3125, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4578893", "player": "Vit Krejci", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.05857740585774, "creation_assist_share": 0.08823529411764706, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.3, "reference_TS": 0.3, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4683678", "player": "Scoot Henderson", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 17.07112970711297, "creation_assist_share": 0.08823529411764706, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4375, "reference_TS": 0.5067567567567567, "conditional_FGA": 8.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 5.0 }, { "player_id": "4703889", "player": "Jayson Kent", "reference_minutes": 3.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 3.01255230125523, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.75, "reference_TS": 0.75, "conditional_FGA": 2.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 0.0 }, { "player_id": "4706557", "player": "Chris Youngblood", "reference_minutes": 12.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 12.05020920502092, "creation_assist_share": 0.08823529411764706, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 3.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8, "reference_TS": 0.6802721088435374, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5081727", "player": "Sidy Cissoko", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 16.06694560669456, "creation_assist_share": 0.029411764705882353, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.0, "conditional_FGA": 1.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 1.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 } ], "conditional_team_minutes": 240.0, "excluded": [ "Chucky Hepburn", "Jaylen Martin", "Miles Kelly", "William Kyle III" ], "calculation": "Normalize surviving observed minutes to240. Redistribute reference2PA and3PA separately in proportion to surviving same-type attempts, then FGA=2PA+3PA; FTA separately. This preserves team totals and makes individual3PA<=FGA. Creation share is descriptive, never added to scorer points. Analyst sensitivity, not coach commitment or validatedPPP correction." } ], "unknown_return_roles": [ "Shaedon Sharpe" ], "return_rule": "No current role sample => return opportunity unestimated; do not invent minutes." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4431736", "player": "Toumani Camara", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "4-4", "FG": "4-7", "TO": "1", "3PT": "2-5", "AST": "3", "PTS": "14", "MIN": "15", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4683021", "player": "Deni Avdija", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "2-3", "FG": "3-4", "TO": "2", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "4", "PTS": "9", "MIN": "17", "OREB": "2" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "5105565", "player": "Donovan Clingan", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "1-1", "FG": "5-7", "TO": "3", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "1", "PTS": "11", "MIN": "15", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "3995", "player": "Jrue Holiday", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "3-5", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-2", "AST": "3", "PTS": "6", "MIN": "15", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4279888", "player": "Ja Morant", "starter": true, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "1-2", "AST": "5", "PTS": "5", "MIN": "14", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4593043", "player": "John Tonje", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "1-2", "FG": "0-3", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-2", "AST": "1", "PTS": "1", "MIN": "19", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4610139", "player": "Jeremy Sochan", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "4-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-0", "AST": "2", "PTS": "8", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4066399", "player": "Micah Potter", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "1-1", "FG": "3-8", "TO": "0", "3PT": "0-3", "AST": "0", "PTS": "7", "MIN": "17", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4592435", "player": "Branden Carlson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "1-2", "TO": "4", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "0", "PTS": "3", "MIN": "14", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "5217746", "player": "Yang Hansen", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "6-8", "TO": "2", "3PT": "1-1", "AST": "4", "PTS": "13", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "1" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4578893", "player": "Vit Krejci", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "2-2", "FG": "3-6", "TO": "1", "3PT": "2-4", "AST": "2", "PTS": "10", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4683678", "player": "Scoot Henderson", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "2-3", "FG": "4-7", "TO": "1", "3PT": "4-5", "AST": "3", "PTS": "14", "MIN": "16", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4703889", "player": "Jayson Kent", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "2-6", "TO": "0", "3PT": "1-4", "AST": "1", "PTS": "5", "MIN": "21", "OREB": "3" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "5081727", "player": "Sidy Cissoko", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "5-5", "TO": "2", "3PT": "3-3", "AST": "3", "PTS": "13", "MIN": "15", "OREB": "0" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4066211", "player": "Robert Williams III", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "6606", "player": "Damian Lillard", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4684737", "player": "Jaylen Martin", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4706557", "player": "Chris Youngblood", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130" }, { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4914336", "player": "Shaedon Sharpe", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130" } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Fresh rendered October Trade filter empty; September both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "points", "adjustment_units": "points", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 116.73780487804878, 114.8841463414634 ], "Primary": [ 115.37716518423461, 112.18363859787532 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 118.23780500000001, 113.3841475 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://www.nba.com/team/1610612757/blazers", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130", "https://www.nba.com/players/transactions" ], "findings": "Latest October12 reference has Holiday starting after Lillard rest, with Henderson reserve creation. Sharpe absence remains; Lillard/Williams/Youngblood Tuesday returns conditional using prior observed rotations. Jaylen Martin waived, removed. London blowout separated from NBA opponent sample.", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4683021", "player": "Deni Avdija", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4431736", "player": "Toumani Camara", "position": "F", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4592435", "player": "Branden Carlson", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "5081727", "player": "Sidy Cissoko", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "5105565", "player": "Donovan Clingan", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "5217746", "player": "Yang Hansen", "position": "C", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4683678", "player": "Scoot Henderson", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "3995", "player": "Jrue Holiday", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4703889", "player": "Jayson Kent", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4578893", "player": "Vit Krejci", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/teams/22/roster?season=2027" }, { "team_id": "22", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "6606", "player": "Damian Lillard", "position": "G", "reported_status": "Active", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T18:18Z" } 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"https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4914336/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "0.9", "scoringEfficiency": "1.200", "shootingEfficiency": "0.51" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4914336", "player": "Shaedon Sharpe", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4914336", "player": "Shaedon Sharpe", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4431736", "player": "Toumani Camara", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7142857142857143, "reference_TS": 0.7990867579908676, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4683021", "player": "Deni Avdija", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.875, "reference_TS": 0.8458646616541353, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "3995", "player": "Jrue Holiday", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.6, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4279888", "player": "Ja Morant", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 13.941908713692946, "creation_assist_share": 0.15625, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4593043", "player": "John Tonje", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.92116182572614, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.1288659793814433, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4610139", "player": "Jeremy Sochan", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4578893", "player": "Vit Krejci", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.7267441860465116, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4683678", "player": "Scoot Henderson", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.933609958506224, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8571428571428571, "reference_TS": 0.8413461538461539, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4703889", "player": "Jayson Kent", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5081727", "player": "Sidy Cissoko", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.3, "reference_TS": 1.3, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. 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No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." }, { "incumbent_id": "4066211", "incumbent": "Robert Williams III", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T18:21Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "two_prior_season_rows": [ { "player_id": "4066211", "player": "Robert Williams III", "season": "2024-25", "season_end_year": 2025, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "22", "category": "averages", "current_team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066211/stats?seasontype=2", "gamesPlayed": "20", "gamesStarted": "3", "avgMinutes": "17.6", "avgFieldGoalsMade-avgFieldGoalsAttempted": "2.5-3.9", "fieldGoalPct": "64.1", "avgThreePointFieldGoalsMade-avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "0.1-0.2", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "33.3", "avgFreeThrowsMade-avgFreeThrowsAttempted": "0.8-0.9", 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"regular", "historical_team_id": "22", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066211/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "50-78", "fieldGoalPct": "64.1", "threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted": "1-3", "threePointFieldGoalPct": "33.3", "freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted": "15-17", "freeThrowPct": "88.2", "offensiveRebounds": "35", "assists": "21", "turnovers": "17", "points": "116" }, { "player_id": "4066211", "player": "Robert Williams III", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "22", "category": "totals", "current_team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066211/stats?seasontype=2", "fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted": "177-250", "fieldGoalPct": "70.8", 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"https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4066211/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "1.2", "scoringEfficiency": "1.588", "shootingEfficiency": "0.73" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4066211", "player": "Robert Williams III", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4066211", "player": "Robert Williams III", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "FT": "0-0", "FG": "4-5", "TO": "1", "3PT": "0-1", "AST": "1", "PTS": "8", "MIN": "14", "OREB": "4" } ], 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"scoringEfficiency": "1.083", "shootingEfficiency": "0.47" }, { "player_id": "4706557", "player": "Chris Youngblood", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": "22", "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4706557/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "INF", "scoringEfficiency": "2.000", "shootingEfficiency": "1.00" }, { "player_id": "4706557", "player": "Chris Youngblood", "season": "2025-26", "season_end_year": 2026, "stage": "regular", "historical_team_id": null, "category": "miscellaneous", "current_team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "source": "https://site.web.api.espn.com/apis/common/v3/sports/basketball/nba/athletes/4706557/stats?seasontype=2", "assistTurnoverRatio": "6.0", "scoringEfficiency": "1.127", "shootingEfficiency": "0.49" } ], "current_form_separate": [ { "event_id": "401914130", "date": "2026-10-12T20:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4706557", "player": "Chris Youngblood", "starter": false, "did_not_play": true, "reason": "COACH'S DECISION", "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914130" }, { "event_id": "401914129", "date": "2026-10-08T02:00Z", "stage": "preseason", "team": "Portland Trail Blazers", "player_id": "4706557", "player": "Chris Youngblood", "starter": false, "did_not_play": false, "reason": null, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401914129", "FT": "0-2", "FG": "3-5", "TO": "3", "3PT": "2-3", "AST": "3", "PTS": "8", "MIN": "12", "OREB": "0" } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": "4431736", "player": "Toumani Camara", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.7142857142857143, "reference_TS": 0.7990867579908676, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 4.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4683021", "player": "Deni Avdija", "reference_minutes": 17.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 16.929460580912863, "creation_assist_share": 0.125, "reference_AST": 4.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 2.0, "reference_eFG": 0.875, "reference_TS": 0.8458646616541353, "conditional_FGA": 4.0, "conditional_3PA": 1.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "3995", "player": "Jrue Holiday", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6, "reference_TS": 0.6, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 3.0 }, { "player_id": "4279888", "player": "Ja Morant", "reference_minutes": 14.0, "reference_starter": true, "conditional_minutes": 13.941908713692946, "creation_assist_share": 0.15625, "reference_AST": 5.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 4.0 }, { "player_id": "4593043", "player": "John Tonje", "reference_minutes": 19.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 18.92116182572614, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.0, "reference_TS": 0.1288659793814433, "conditional_FGA": 3.0, "conditional_3PA": 2.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 1.0 }, { "player_id": "4610139", "player": "Jeremy Sochan", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 1.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.6666666666666666, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 0.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 6.0 }, { "player_id": "4578893", "player": "Vit Krejci", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.0625, "reference_AST": 2.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.6666666666666666, "reference_TS": 0.7267441860465116, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 2.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4683678", "player": "Scoot Henderson", "reference_minutes": 16.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 15.933609958506224, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 1.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 0.8571428571428571, "reference_TS": 0.8413461538461539, "conditional_FGA": 7.0, "conditional_3PA": 5.0, "conditional_FTA": 3.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "4703889", "player": "Jayson Kent", "reference_minutes": 21.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 20.91286307053942, "creation_assist_share": 0.03125, "reference_AST": 1.0, "reference_TO": 0.0, "reference_OREB": 3.0, "reference_eFG": 0.4166666666666667, "reference_TS": 0.4166666666666667, "conditional_FGA": 6.0, "conditional_3PA": 4.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 }, { "player_id": "5081727", "player": "Sidy Cissoko", "reference_minutes": 15.0, "reference_starter": false, "conditional_minutes": 14.937759336099585, "creation_assist_share": 0.09375, "reference_AST": 3.0, "reference_TO": 2.0, "reference_OREB": 0.0, "reference_eFG": 1.3, "reference_TS": 1.3, "conditional_FGA": 5.0, "conditional_3PA": 3.0, "conditional_FTA": 0.0, "conditional_2PA": 2.0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "Pool rows are a subset of already reconciled240-minute team scenario; NEVER add allocations across absent-player comparisons. Multiple absences overlap.", "conclusion": "Reference already excludes this player; actual teammates received displayed minutes/shots/creation. No fresh healthy-incumbent deduction.", "numerical_effect": null, "missing_history": "No returned history is unknown, never0performance." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings", "market": { "id": "401901826", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/summary?event=401901826", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.775168+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.929050+00:00", "home_line": 3.5, "away_line": -3.5, "home_line_price": -105.0, "away_line_price": -115.0, "total": 227.5, "under_line": 227.5, "over_price": -110.0, "under_price": -110.0, "home_ml": 142.0, "away_ml": -170.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 3.5, "average_total": 227.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -1.853658536585371, "combined": 231.6219512195122, "spread_buffer": 1.646341463414629, "total_difference": 4.121951219512198 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -1.853658536585371, "combined": 231.6219512195122, "spread_buffer": 1.646341463414629, "total_difference": 4.121951219512198 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -3.1935265863592974, "combined": 227.56080378210993, "spread_buffer": 0.3064734136407026, "total_difference": 0.06080378210992876 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -3.1935265863592974, "combined": 227.56080378210993, "spread_buffer": 0.3064734136407026, "total_difference": 0.06080378210992876 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -4.853657500000011, "combined": 231.62195250000002, "spread_buffer": -1.3536575000000113, "total_difference": 4.12195250000002 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -4.853657500000011, "combined": 231.62195250000002, "spread_buffer": -1.3536575000000113, "total_difference": 4.12195250000002 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -4.853657500000011, "combined": 231.62195250000002, "spread_buffer": -1.3536575000000113, "total_difference": 4.12195250000002 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -4.853657500000011, "combined": 231.62195250000002, "spread_buffer": -1.3536575000000113, "total_difference": 4.12195250000002 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": false, "total": true, "winner + spread": false, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": false, "winner + spread + total": false } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892502", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892502", "date": "2026-10-14T02:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "6", "away_name": "Edmonton Oilers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "8", "home_name": "Los Angeles Kings", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.384857723577236, 3.1038211382113823 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.384857723577236, 3.1038211382113823 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.384857723577236, 3.1038211382113823 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.4390243902439024, 3.2804878048780486 ], "current_rates": [ 5.0, 3.4 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.7439024390243905, 3.0121951219512195 ], "current_rates": [ 2.5, 4.25 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.9573100000000001, 4.95731 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.3193067012671253, 3.0857667553470374 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3193067012671253, 3.0857667553470374 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.3193067012671253, 3.0857667553470374 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.9573100000000001, 4.95731 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22, "official_team_name": "Edmonton Oilers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26, "official_team_name": "Los Angeles Kings" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.9573100000000001, 4.95731 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22, "official_team_name": "Edmonton Oilers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26, "official_team_name": "Los Angeles Kings" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.9573100000000001, 4.95731 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "EDM: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. LAK: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 4 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "crypto.com Arena; listed 2026-10-14T02:30Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892502", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Edmonton Oilers", "home": "Los Angeles Kings", "start_et": "2026-10-13T22:30:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T02:30Z", "venue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 10:30 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 10:30 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Edmonton Oilers", "previous_game": { "id": "401892471", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1653", "fullName": "SAP Center at San Jose", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Jose", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "6", "away_name": "Edmonton Oilers", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "San Jose Sharks", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20736.833333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "Los Angeles Kings", "previous_game": { "id": "401892481", "date": "2026-10-11T02:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5060", "fullName": "T-Mobile Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "8", "away_name": "Los Angeles Kings", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "37", "home_name": "Vegas Golden Knights", "home_score": 2.0, "day": 20737.083333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020104, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=800&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=800&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20252026+and+gameTypeId%3D2", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/6/roster", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/8/roster", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "tu": { "id": "401892502", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892502", "date": "2026-10-14T02:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1841", "fullName": "crypto.com Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Los Angeles", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "6", "away_name": "Edmonton Oilers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "8", "home_name": "Los Angeles Kings", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "formula": "2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus", "away_score": 3.170725, "home_score": 2.95731, "unrounded_score": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 3.17, 2.96 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current four-model standard requires. Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.43902, "pa": 3.2317, "official_team_id": 22, "official_team_name": "Edmonton Oilers" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.68292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 26, "official_team_name": "Los Angeles Kings" } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.170725, 5.170725 ], "home": [ 0.9573100000000001, 4.95731 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\scoring\\slate-NHL.json", "sha256": "33eafda3515f36bcc42de3a35ce8089b82c84b630ad604df844ae9b8e929e0cd" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\NHL.json", "sha256": "328e317c45660222a5a093b521ab735af9e48c112148505576ad2984fabf0be8" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Tracking-only policy; explicit sport activation and calibrated buffers/distribution absent.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": 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32.38461 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 473, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 473.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020072, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Howard", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "SJS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8483455, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 66, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 66.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Isaac Howard", "teamAbbrev": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 539, "timeOnIcePerGame": 539.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 33.6875 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1202, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1202.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020072, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Ekholm", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "SJS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8475218, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 89, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 89.0, "shTimeOnIce": 75, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 75.0, "shifts": 28, "shiftsPerGame": 28.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mattias Ekholm", "teamAbbrev": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 1366, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1366.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.78571 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 527, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 527.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020072, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Frederic", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "SJS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8479365, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 66, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 66.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Trent Frederic", "teamAbbrev": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 593, "timeOnIcePerGame": 593.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 34.88235 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 856, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 856.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020072, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Joseph", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "SJS", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8478472, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 2, 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"player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 825, "PP_seconds": 150, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1124, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1226, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 379, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 670, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 823, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1075, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1353, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 473, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1202, "PP_seconds": 89, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 856, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 24 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1327, "PP_seconds": 67, "SH_seconds": 47 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 16200, "PP_seconds": 1200, "SH_seconds": 480 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "EDM", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8479365, "name": { "default": "T. 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Shea" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "24:01", "shifts": 38 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "EDM", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8475218, "name": { "default": "M. Ekholm" }, "position": "D", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:46", "shifts": 28 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "EDM", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8480834, "name": { "default": "T. Emberson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:10", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "EDM", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8482166, "name": { "default": "S. Mukhamadullin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:18", "shifts": 17 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.384857723577236, 3.1038211382113823 ], "Primary": [ 3.3193067012671253, 3.0857667553470374 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8482703, "player": "Colton Dach", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/EDM/current" }, { "team": "EDM", 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8480842, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 63, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 21.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 212, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 70.66666, "shifts": 55, "shiftsPerGame": 18.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Filip Hallander", "teamAbbrevs": "PIT,EDM", "timeOnIce": 2085, "timeOnIcePerGame": 695.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.90909 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4528, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 905.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Podkolzin", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481617, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1219, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 243.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 125, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Vasily Podkolzin", "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 5747, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1149.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.976 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2062, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 687.33333, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Mukhamadullin", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482166, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 52, "shiftsPerGame": 17.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 2062, "timeOnIcePerGame": 687.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.65384 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2085, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 695.0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Dach", "otTimeOnIce": 6, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 6.0, "playerId": 8482703, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 195, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 65.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 128, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 42.66666, "shifts": 69, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Colton Dach", "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 2408, "timeOnIcePerGame": 802.66666, "timeOnIcePerShift": 34.89855 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2422, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 484.4, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Howard", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483455, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 545, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 109.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 3, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.6, "shifts": 80, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Isaac Howard", "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 2970, "timeOnIcePerGame": 594.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 37.125 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1741, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 435.25, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Samanski", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": null, "playerId": 8484509, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 127, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 31.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 56, "shiftsPerGame": 14.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Josh Samanski", "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 1868, "timeOnIcePerGame": 467.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 33.35714 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3458, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 691.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Michaels", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8486161, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 29, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 5.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 332, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 66.4, "shifts": 117, "shiftsPerGame": 23.4, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Owen Michaels", "teamAbbrevs": "EDM", "timeOnIce": 3819, "timeOnIcePerGame": 763.8, "timeOnIcePerShift": 32.64102 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892502", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.384857723577236, 3.1038211382113823 ], "Primary": [ 3.3193067012671253, 3.0857667553470374 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8482703, "incumbent": "Colton Dach", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-07T20:49Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8482703, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8482703/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 5, "avgToi": "12:08", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 25, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 17, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.074074, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 27, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 14, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 33, "goals": 12, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 21, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 26, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Rockford IceHogs" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 12, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Rockford IceHogs" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "11:41", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.366197, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 53, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 47, "plusMinus": -15, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.057692, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 52, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Blackhawks" }, "teamName": { "default": "Chicago Blackhawks", "fr": "Blackhawks de Chicago" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Chicago", "fr": "de Chicago" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "10:09", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 5, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.333333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "8:27", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "13:23", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.548387, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 63, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 825, "PP_seconds": 150, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1124, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1226, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 379, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 823, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1075, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 473, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 856, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 24 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8477406, "incumbent": "Mattias Janmark", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-29T17:52Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8477406, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477406/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "13:18", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.405858, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 80, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 18, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.039216, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 3, "shots": 51, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "12:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.292135, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 22, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 14, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.2, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 15, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "11:51", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.368421, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 43, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": -8, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.041667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 24, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 63, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 825, "PP_seconds": 150, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1124, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1226, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 379, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 823, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1075, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 473, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 856, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 24 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8476454, "incumbent": "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T14:08Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8476454, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476454/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 29, "avgToi": "18:58", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.48474, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 78, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 49, "powerPlayGoals": 7, "powerPlayPoints": 20, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.121951, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 164, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 14, "avgToi": "19:35", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.413793, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 22, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 4, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 4, "powerPlayPoints": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.125, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 48, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 36, "avgToi": "19:04", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.473829, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 72, "goals": 20, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 21, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 56, "powerPlayGoals": 11, "powerPlayPoints": 29, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.150376, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 133, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "17:46", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.518519, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.285714, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 7, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 63, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 825, "PP_seconds": 150, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1124, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1226, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 379, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 823, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1075, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 473, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 856, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 24 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8483512, "incumbent": "Matt Savoie", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T14:05Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8483512, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8483512/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "12:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.666667, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -4, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 35, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 66, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 28, "plusMinus": 21, "points": 54, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Bakersfield Condors" } }, { "assists": 19, "avgToi": "14:47", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 18, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 24, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 37, "powerPlayGoals": 5, "powerPlayPoints": 7, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.130435, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 138, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Bakersfield Condors" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "14:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 10, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 63, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 825, "PP_seconds": 150, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1124, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1226, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 379, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 823, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1075, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 473, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 856, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 24 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8475786, "incumbent": "Zach Hyman", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T12:50Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8475786, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475786/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 17, "avgToi": "18:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 7, "gamesPlayed": 73, "goals": 27, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 32, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 44, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 12, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.128571, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 210, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 6, "avgToi": "17:42", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 10, "points": 11, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.166667, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 30, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 21, "avgToi": "19:59", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 58, "goals": 31, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 28, "plusMinus": 13, "points": 52, "powerPlayGoals": 10, "powerPlayPoints": 15, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.194969, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 159, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "18:49", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": -6, "points": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.153846, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 13, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "20:33", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480842, "player": "Filip Hallander", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 788, "PP_seconds": 63, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477953, "player": "Kasperi Kapanen", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 825, "PP_seconds": 150, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8477934, "player": "Leon Draisaitl", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1124, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8486161, "player": "Owen Michaels", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 842, "PP_seconds": 4, "SH_seconds": 9 }, { "player_id": 8478402, "player": "Connor McDavid", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1226, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 45 }, { "player_id": 8484509, "player": "Josh Samanski", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 379, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477450, "player": "Jason Dickinson", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 823, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8481617, "player": "Vasily Podkolzin", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 1075, "PP_seconds": 173, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480029, "player": "Alex Formenton", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 770, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 72 }, { "player_id": 8483455, "player": "Isaac Howard", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 473, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479365, "player": "Trent Frederic", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 527, "PP_seconds": 66, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478472, "player": "Mathieu Joseph", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 856, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 24 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8480831, "incumbent": "Alec Regula", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-01T14:11Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8480831, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8480831/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "14:28", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 29, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 35, "plusMinus": -16, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 18, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 7, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 20, "goals": 4, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 25, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 11, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Bakersfield Condors" } }, { "assists": 1, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Bakersfield Condors" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 670, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1353, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1202, "PP_seconds": 89, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1327, "PP_seconds": 67, "SH_seconds": 47 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8478013, "incumbent": "Jake Walman", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-11T12:50Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478013, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478013/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 26, "avgToi": "23:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 50, "goals": 6, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 36, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 32, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 7, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.048, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 125, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "21:26", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 15, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 6, "plusMinus": 5, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 2, "shootingPctg": 0.025641, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 39, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "20:10", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 22, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 9, "points": 10, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.052632, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 38, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 12, "avgToi": "18:45", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 53, "goals": 8, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 10, "plusMinus": -17, "points": 20, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 2, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.083333, "shorthandedGoals": 2, "shorthandedPoints": 2, "shots": 96, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "16:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 8, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 9, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "14:47", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 5, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Oilers" }, "teamName": { "default": "Edmonton Oilers", "fr": "Oilers d'Edmonton" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Edmonton", "fr": "d'Edmonton" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8480803, "player": "Evan Bouchard", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1262, "PP_seconds": 172, "SH_seconds": 13 }, { "player_id": 8482166, "player": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 678, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8480834, "player": "Ty Emberson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 670, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476473, "player": "Connor Murphy", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1353, "PP_seconds": 3, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8475218, "player": "Mattias Ekholm", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1202, "PP_seconds": 89, "SH_seconds": 75 }, { "player_id": 8478854, "player": "Ryan Shea", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1327, "PP_seconds": 67, "SH_seconds": 47 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] }, { "sport": "NHL", "event_id": 2026020104, "team": "LAK", "review_status": "CONDITIONAL_OPPORTUNITY_REVIEW_COMPLETE", "incumbent_id": null, "replacement_ids": null, "expected_opportunities": { "status": "ANALYST CONDITIONAL", "reference": [ { "evTimeOnIce": 680, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 680.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Armia", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476469, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 2, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 2.0, "shTimeOnIce": 71, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 71.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Joel Armia", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 753, "timeOnIcePerGame": 753.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.63157 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 750, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 750.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Perry", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8470621, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 82, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 82.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 16, "shiftsPerGame": 16.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Corey Perry", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 832, "timeOnIcePerGame": 832.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 52.0 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 545, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 545.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Helenius", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482726, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 12, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Samuel Helenius", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 545, "timeOnIcePerGame": 545.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.41666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1117, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1117.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Dumoulin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 46, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 46.0, "playerId": 8475208, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 39, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 39.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brian Dumoulin", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1156, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1156.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.16666 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 851, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 851.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Edmundson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476441, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 77, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 77.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Joel Edmundson", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 928, "timeOnIcePerGame": 928.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.8421 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 624, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 624.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Wright", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483756, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jared Wright", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 624, "timeOnIcePerGame": 624.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.70588 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 916, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 916.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Haula", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 29, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 29.0, "playerId": 8475287, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 28, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 28.0, "shTimeOnIce": 84, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 84.0, "shifts": 27, "shiftsPerGame": 27.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Erik Haula", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1028, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1028.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 38.07407 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1396, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1396.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Doughty", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 113, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 113.0, "playerId": 8474563, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 8, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 8.0, "shTimeOnIce": 37, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 37.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Drew Doughty", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1441, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1441.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.42307 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 628, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 628.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Lee", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481732, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 19, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 19.0, "shifts": 13, "shiftsPerGame": 13.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Andre Lee", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 647, "timeOnIcePerGame": 647.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.76923 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 930, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 930.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Moore", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479675, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 6, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.0, "shTimeOnIce": 111, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 111.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Trevor Moore", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1047, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1047.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.52173 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1162, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1162.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Ceci", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 6, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 6.0, "playerId": 8476879, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 133, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 133.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Cody Ceci", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1295, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1295.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.80769 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 924, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 924.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Laferriere", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 67, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 67.0, "playerId": 8482155, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 202, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 202.0, "shTimeOnIce": 19, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 19.0, "shifts": 25, "shiftsPerGame": 25.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Alex Laferriere", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1145, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1145.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.8 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 994, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 994.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Byfield", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 44, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 44.0, "playerId": 8482124, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 208, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 208.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 24.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Quinton Byfield", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1202, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1202.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.08333 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 832, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 832.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Laughton", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 48, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 48.0, "playerId": 8476872, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 107, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 107.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Scott Laughton", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 939, "timeOnIcePerGame": 939.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.82608 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 887, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 887.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Clarke", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 41, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 41.0, "playerId": 8482730, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 128, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 128.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 19, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Brandt Clarke", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1015, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1015.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.42105 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1190, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1190.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Anderson", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 6, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 6.0, "playerId": 8479998, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shTimeOnIce": 129, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 129.0, "shifts": 26, "shiftsPerGame": 26.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mikey Anderson", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1319, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1319.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.73076 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 992, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 992.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Kempe", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 41, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 41.0, "playerId": 8477960, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 182, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 182.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adrian Kempe", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1174, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1174.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 51.04347 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1064, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 1064.0, "gameDate": "2026-10-10", "gameId": 2026020083, "gamesPlayed": 1, "homeRoad": "R", "lastName": "Panarin", "opponentTeamAbbrev": "VGK", "otTimeOnIce": 39, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 39.0, "playerId": 8478550, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 204, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 204.0, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 23, "shiftsPerGame": 23.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Artemi Panarin", "teamAbbrev": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1268, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1268.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 55.13043 } ], "projected_seconds_by_strength": [ { "player_id": 8476469, "player": "Joel Armia", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 680, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 71 }, { "player_id": 8470621, "player": "Corey Perry", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 82, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482726, "player": "Samuel Helenius", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 545, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475208, "player": "Brian Dumoulin", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1117, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 39 }, { "player_id": 8476441, "player": "Joel Edmundson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 851, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 77 }, { "player_id": 8483756, "player": "Jared Wright", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 624, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475287, "player": "Erik Haula", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 916, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8474563, "player": "Drew Doughty", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1396, "PP_seconds": 8, "SH_seconds": 37 }, { "player_id": 8481732, "player": "Andre Lee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8479675, "player": "Trevor Moore", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 930, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8476879, "player": "Cody Ceci", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1162, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 133 }, { "player_id": 8482155, "player": "Alex Laferriere", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 924, "PP_seconds": 202, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8482124, "player": "Quinton Byfield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 994, "PP_seconds": 208, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476872, "player": "Scott Laughton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8482730, "player": "Brandt Clarke", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 887, "PP_seconds": 128, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8479998, "player": "Mikey Anderson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1190, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 129 }, { "player_id": 8477960, "player": "Adrian Kempe", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478550, "player": "Artemi Panarin", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1064, "PP_seconds": 204, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 16482, "PP_seconds": 1050, "SH_seconds": 826 }, "conditional_branches": [], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8477960, "name": { "default": "A. Kempe" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:34", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8478550, "name": { "default": "A. Panarin" }, "position": "L", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "toi": "21:08", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8479675, "name": { "default": "T. 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Laughton" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "15:39", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8483756, "name": { "default": "J. Wright" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:24", "shifts": 17 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8476469, "name": { "default": "J. 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Byfield" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:02", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8475287, "name": { "default": "E. Haula" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:08", "shifts": 27 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8482726, "name": { "default": "S. Helenius" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "09:05", "shifts": 12 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8470621, "name": { "default": "C. Perry" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "13:52", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8475208, "name": { "default": "B. Dumoulin" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:16", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8476879, "name": { "default": "C. Ceci" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:35", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8476441, "name": { "default": "J. 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Anderson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:59", "shifts": 26 }, { "event_id": 2026020083, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "LAK", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "playerId": 8482730, "name": { "default": "B. Clarke" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:55", "shifts": 19 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.384857723577236, 3.1038211382113823 ], "Primary": [ 3.3193067012671253, 3.0857667553470374 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020083/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. 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"player": "Corey Perry", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8481532, "player": "Alex Turcotte", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8475692, "player": "Mats Zuccarello", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8479998, "player": "Mikey Anderson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8476879, "player": "Cody Ceci", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8482730, "player": "Brandt Clarke", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8474563, "player": "Drew Doughty", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8475208, "player": "Brian Dumoulin", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8476441, "player": "Joel Edmundson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8476979, "player": "Erik Gustafsson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8476341, "player": "Anton Forsberg", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" }, { "team": "LAK", "player_id": 8475311, "player": "Darcy Kuemper", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/LAK/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "Los Angeles Kings", "abbreviation": "LA", "player": "Alex Turcotte", "player_id": "4565226", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T18:09Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/8/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.286411+00:00" }, { "team": "Los Angeles Kings", "abbreviation": "LA", "player": "Kevin Fiala", "player_id": "3114743", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-17T19:39Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/8/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.286411+00:00" }, { "team": "Los Angeles Kings", "abbreviation": "LA", "player": "Mats Zuccarello", "player_id": "5560", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T18:03Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/8/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.286411+00:00" } ], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8470621, 8474563, 8475208, 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"points": 17, "assists": 13, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 46, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1448.2, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 6, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 3, "skaterFullName": "Drew Doughty", "goals": 4, "evPoints": 10, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.04347, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 80, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8475208, "teamAbbrevs": "ANA,NJD", "points": 22, "assists": 19, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 69, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1172.625, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 3, "skaterFullName": "Brian Dumoulin", "goals": 3, "evPoints": 22, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.1, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 69, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8475287, "teamAbbrevs": "NJD", "points": 21, "assists": 10, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 110, "timeOnIcePerGame": 882.2463, "ppGoals": 2, "ppPoints": 5, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 9, "skaterFullName": "Erik Haula", "goals": 11, "evPoints": 16, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.12582, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 69, "otGoals": 1, "playerId": 8475692, "teamAbbrevs": 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8475208, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 18, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 406, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 101.5, "shifts": 85, "shiftsPerGame": 21.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Brian Dumoulin", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 3911, "timeOnIcePerGame": 977.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.01176 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2941, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 735.25, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Haula", "otTimeOnIce": 65, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 32.5, "playerId": 8475287, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 261, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 65.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 605, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 151.25, "shifts": 106, "shiftsPerGame": 26.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Erik Haula", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 3807, "timeOnIcePerGame": 951.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 35.91509 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2513, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 837.66666, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Zuccarello", "otTimeOnIce": 86, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 86.0, "playerId": 8475692, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 760, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 253.33333, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 61, "shiftsPerGame": 20.33333, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mats Zuccarello", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 3273, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1091.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.65573 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3017, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 754.25, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Edmundson", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476441, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 440, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 110.0, "shifts": 79, "shiftsPerGame": 19.75, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Joel Edmundson", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 3457, "timeOnIcePerGame": 864.25, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.75949 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2390, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 597.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Armia", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8476469, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 98, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 24.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 596, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 149.0, "shifts": 79, "shiftsPerGame": 19.75, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Joel Armia", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 3084, "timeOnIcePerGame": 771.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 39.03797 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2848, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 712.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Laughton", "otTimeOnIce": 48, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 24.0, "playerId": 8476872, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 14, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 592, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 148.0, "shifts": 85, "shiftsPerGame": 21.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Scott Laughton", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 3454, "timeOnIcePerGame": 863.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.63529 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3708, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 927.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Ceci", "otTimeOnIce": 6, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 3.0, "playerId": 8476879, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 4, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 1.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 776, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 194.0, "shifts": 94, "shiftsPerGame": 23.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Cody Ceci", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 4488, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1122.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.74468 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1771, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 885.5, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Gustafsson", "otTimeOnIce": 42, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 42.0, "playerId": 8476979, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 155, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 77.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 8, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.0, "shifts": 39, "shiftsPerGame": 19.5, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Erik Gustafsson", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1934, "timeOnIcePerGame": 967.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.58974 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3936, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 984.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Kempe", "otTimeOnIce": 106, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 53.0, "playerId": 8477960, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 946, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 236.5, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 77, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 19.25, "shifts": 93, "shiftsPerGame": 23.25, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Adrian Kempe", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 4959, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1239.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 53.32258 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3891, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 972.75, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Panarin", "otTimeOnIce": 112, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 56.0, "playerId": 8478550, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 1159, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 289.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 88, "shiftsPerGame": 22.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Artemi Panarin", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 5050, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1262.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 57.38636 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3282, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 820.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Moore", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8479675, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 13, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.25, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 587, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 146.75, "shifts": 95, "shiftsPerGame": 23.75, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Trevor Moore", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 3882, "timeOnIcePerGame": 970.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 40.86315 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3726, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 931.5, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Anderson", "otTimeOnIce": 6, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 3.0, "playerId": 8479998, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 16, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 4.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 688, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 172.0, "shifts": 91, "shiftsPerGame": 22.75, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Mikey Anderson", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 4430, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1107.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.68131 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 2102, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 700.66666, "gamesPlayed": 3, "lastName": "Turcotte", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481532, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 287, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 95.66666, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 150, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 50.0, "shifts": 57, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Alex Turcotte", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 2539, "timeOnIcePerGame": 846.33333, "timeOnIcePerShift": 44.54385 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 1104, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 552.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Lee", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8481732, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 19, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 9.5, "shifts": 24, "shiftsPerGame": 12.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Andre Lee", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 1123, "timeOnIcePerGame": 561.5, "timeOnIcePerShift": 46.79166 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3884, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 971.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Byfield", "otTimeOnIce": 141, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 70.5, "playerId": 8482124, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 1011, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 252.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 76, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 19.0, "shifts": 91, "shiftsPerGame": 22.75, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Quinton Byfield", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 4971, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1242.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.62637 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3421, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 855.25, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Laferriere", "otTimeOnIce": 99, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 49.5, "playerId": 8482155, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 559, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 139.75, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 131, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 32.75, "shifts": 90, "shiftsPerGame": 22.5, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Alex Laferriere", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 4111, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1027.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 45.67777 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 964, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 482.0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "lastName": "Helenius", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8482726, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 22, "shiftsPerGame": 11.0, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Samuel Helenius", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 964, "timeOnIcePerGame": 482.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 43.81818 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3692, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 923.0, "gamesPlayed": 4, "lastName": "Clarke", "otTimeOnIce": 159, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 79.5, "playerId": 8482730, "positionCode": "D", "ppTimeOnIce": 764, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 191.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 95, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 23.75, "shifts": 83, "shiftsPerGame": 20.75, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Brandt Clarke", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 4551, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1137.75, "timeOnIcePerShift": 54.83132 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 624, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 624.0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "lastName": "Wright", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8483756, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 17, "shiftsPerGame": 17.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Jared Wright", "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "timeOnIce": 624, "timeOnIcePerGame": 624.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 36.70588 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892502", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.384857723577236, 3.1038211382113823 ], "Primary": [ 3.3193067012671253, 3.0857667553470374 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.170725, 2.95731 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8481532, "incumbent": "Alex Turcotte", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T18:09Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8481532, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8481532/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 16, "avgToi": "11:44", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.454545, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 68, "goals": 9, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": 6, "points": 25, "powerPlayGoals": 1, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.113924, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 79, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "5:44", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 11, "avgToi": "10:50", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.541053, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 62, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 21, "plusMinus": -8, "points": 14, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.044776, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 67, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "12:24", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "14:06", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476469, "player": "Joel Armia", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 680, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 71 }, { "player_id": 8470621, "player": "Corey Perry", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 82, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482726, "player": "Samuel Helenius", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 545, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483756, "player": "Jared Wright", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 624, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475287, "player": "Erik Haula", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 916, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8481732, "player": "Andre Lee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8479675, "player": "Trevor Moore", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 930, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8482155, "player": "Alex Laferriere", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 924, "PP_seconds": 202, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8482124, "player": "Quinton Byfield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 994, "PP_seconds": 208, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476872, "player": "Scott Laughton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8477960, "player": "Adrian Kempe", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478550, "player": "Artemi Panarin", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1064, "PP_seconds": 204, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8477942, "incumbent": "Kevin Fiala", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-17T19:39Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8477942, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8477942/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 25, "avgToi": "18:31", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.405405, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 6, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 35, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 38, "plusMinus": -7, "points": 60, "powerPlayGoals": 14, "powerPlayPoints": 25, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.143443, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 244, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 7, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "WC", "pim": 8, "plusMinus": 8, "points": 10, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Switzerland" } }, { "assists": 4, "avgToi": "21:53", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 7, "powerPlayGoals": 2, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.12, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 25, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 22, "avgToi": "19:07", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.28, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 56, "goals": 18, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 34, "plusMinus": -11, "points": 40, "powerPlayGoals": 4, "powerPlayPoints": 17, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.122449, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 147, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "19:40", "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "OG", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shots": 6, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Switzerland", "cs": "\u0160v\u00fdcarsko", "de": "Schweiz", "es": "Suiza", "fi": "Sveitsi", "fr": "Suisse", "sk": "\u0160vaj\u010diarsko", "sv": "Schweiz" }, "teamName": { "default": "Switzerland", "cs": "\u0160v\u00fdcarsko", "de": "Schweiz", "es": "Suiza", "fi": "Sveitsi", "fr": "Suisse", "sk": "\u0160vaj\u010diarsko", "sv": "Schweiz" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476469, "player": "Joel Armia", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 680, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 71 }, { "player_id": 8470621, "player": "Corey Perry", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 82, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482726, "player": "Samuel Helenius", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 545, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483756, "player": "Jared Wright", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 624, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475287, "player": "Erik Haula", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 916, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8481732, "player": "Andre Lee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8479675, "player": "Trevor Moore", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 930, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8482155, "player": "Alex Laferriere", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 924, "PP_seconds": 202, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8482124, "player": "Quinton Byfield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 994, "PP_seconds": 208, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476872, "player": "Scott Laughton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8477960, "player": "Adrian Kempe", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478550, "player": "Artemi Panarin", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1064, "PP_seconds": 204, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8475692, "incumbent": "Mats Zuccarello", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T18:03Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8475692, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8475692/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 35, "avgToi": "19:39", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 6, "gamesPlayed": 69, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 1, "pim": 22, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 54, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 16, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.125828, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 151, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "OGQ", "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 5, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Norway" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "18:40", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": -1, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.125, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 8, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 39, "avgToi": "18:39", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.45, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "gamesPlayed": 59, "goals": 15, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 3, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": -5, "points": 54, "powerPlayGoals": 6, "powerPlayPoints": 21, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.122951, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 122, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "18:22", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.5, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 8, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 9, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 4, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.133333, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 15, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Wild" }, "teamName": { "default": "Minnesota Wild", "fr": "Wild du Minnesota" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Minnesota", "fr": "du Minnesota" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "18:11", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 3, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 1, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 1, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 1, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Kings" }, "teamName": { "default": "Los Angeles Kings", "fr": "Kings de Los Angeles" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Los Angeles", "fr": "de Los Angeles" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8476469, "player": "Joel Armia", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 680, "PP_seconds": 2, "SH_seconds": 71 }, { "player_id": 8470621, "player": "Corey Perry", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 750, "PP_seconds": 82, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8482726, "player": "Samuel Helenius", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 545, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8483756, "player": "Jared Wright", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 624, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475287, "player": "Erik Haula", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 916, "PP_seconds": 28, "SH_seconds": 84 }, { "player_id": 8481732, "player": "Andre Lee", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 628, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8479675, "player": "Trevor Moore", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 930, "PP_seconds": 6, "SH_seconds": 111 }, { "player_id": 8482155, "player": "Alex Laferriere", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 924, "PP_seconds": 202, "SH_seconds": 19 }, { "player_id": 8482124, "player": "Quinton Byfield", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 994, "PP_seconds": 208, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476872, "player": "Scott Laughton", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 832, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 107 }, { "player_id": 8477960, "player": "Adrian Kempe", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 992, "PP_seconds": 182, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8478550, "player": "Artemi Panarin", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 1064, "PP_seconds": 204, "SH_seconds": 0 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings", "market": { "id": "401892502", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892502", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.794408+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:32.004686+00:00", "home_line": 1.5, "away_line": -1.5, "home_line_price": -245.0, "away_line_price": 200.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 114.0, "under_price": -135.0, "home_ml": 105.0, "away_ml": -125.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": 1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.28103658536585385, "combined": 6.488678861788618, "spread_buffer": 1.2189634146341461, "total_difference": -0.011321138211381587 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.28103658536585385, "combined": 6.488678861788618, "spread_buffer": 1.2189634146341461, "total_difference": -0.011321138211381587 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.23353994592008798, "combined": 6.405073456614163, "spread_buffer": 1.266460054079912, "total_difference": -0.09492654338583684 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.23353994592008798, "combined": 6.405073456614163, "spread_buffer": 1.266460054079912, "total_difference": -0.09492654338583684 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2134149999999999, "combined": 6.128035000000001, "spread_buffer": 1.286585, "total_difference": -0.37196499999999943 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2134149999999999, "combined": 6.128035000000001, "spread_buffer": 1.286585, "total_difference": -0.37196499999999943 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.2134149999999999, "combined": 6.128035000000001, "spread_buffer": 1.286585, "total_difference": -0.37196499999999943 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.2134149999999999, "combined": 6.128035000000001, "spread_buffer": 1.286585, "total_difference": -0.37196499999999943 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ 1, 1, 1, 1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } }, { "id": "401892503", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892503", "date": "2026-10-14T03:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1653", "fullName": "SAP Center at San Jose", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Jose", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "1", "away_name": "Boston Bruins", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "San Jose Sharks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "models": { "Classic": { "configuration_id": "classic-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "away": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 6, "current_weight": 0.23076923076923078, "prior_rates": [ 3.317073170731707, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.3333333333333335, 2.1666666666666665 ] }, "home": { "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 3.0609756097560976, 3.5609756097560976 ], "current_rates": [ 2.6, 3.4 ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.059122368146758, "mean_margin_error": 2.0249114029601833, "mean_total_error": 0.9896331040233477, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Primary": { "configuration_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "training_games": 2845, "unknown_teams": [], "latest_game": "2026-10-13T00:00Z", "coefficient_sha256": "40a68f5b7433bb30439e6690f7ac6f16f1ba1325eeb4d6bb45a0b9eeb5e60cb1" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0409200935130711, "mean_margin_error": 2.061082581444996, "mean_total_error": 0.9196375867062138, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-on", "base_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6, "official_team_name": "Boston Bruins" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28, "official_team_name": "San Jose Sharks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "configuration_id": "tighten-up-conservative-off", "base_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "conditional_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "applied_delta": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "statistical_replacement_treatment": "Registered score retained with no numeric overlay applied; true player effect remains unestimated, not zero. Conditional opportunities retained in event-team ledger.", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1", "scenarios": [], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6, "official_team_name": "Boston Bruins" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28, "official_team_name": "San Jose Sharks" } }, "terms": {}, "caps": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "scenario": "base", "n": 3, "hits": 3, "accuracy": 1.0, "wilson95": [ 0.4385029682449546, 1.0 ], "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-12", "mean_team_score_mae": 1.0376041666666667, "mean_margin_error": 2.050815, "mean_total_error": 0.9613783333333332, "limitation": "One-day descriptive prospective cohort, separated by stage; not a calibrated event probability." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." } } }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "kind": "activation", "risk": "No explicit sport activation; tracking-only." } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "finding": "BOS: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group. SJS: Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: Barclay Goodrow.", "reviewer": "Independent football/offensive agent" }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "finding": "away: 82 prior regular-season games, 6 current; home: 82 prior regular-season games, 5 current. Primary uses 2845 strictly earlier completed games within 730 days. Tighten Up baseline: 2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus. Small samples do not establish calibration; NBA/NHL retain tracking-only status. Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.", "reviewer": "Independent model reviewer with parent reconciliation" }, "Gideon Marsh": { "finding": "Independently recomputed Classic scalar shrinkage, Primary weighted matrix fit and Tighten Up registered arithmetic. All four configurations share the same projected winner; ON/OFF are one score engine, not independent votes. Availability/trade overlays require the separate event desk before production decisions. No unsupported coefficient was added.", "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic reviewers" }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "finding": "SAP Center at San Jose; listed 2026-10-14T03:00Z. Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason.", "details": { "event_id": "401892503", "sport": "NHL", "away": "Boston Bruins", "home": "San Jose Sharks", "start_et": "2026-10-13T23:00:00-04:00", "start_utc": "2026-10-14T03:00Z", "venue": { "id": "1653", "fullName": "SAP Center at San Jose", "address": { "city": "San Jose", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" }, "indoor": true }, "neutral": false, "stage": 2, "current_status": { "clock": 0.0, "displayClock": "0:00", "period": 0, "type": { "id": "1", "name": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "state": "pre", "completed": false, "description": "Scheduled", "detail": "Tue, October 13th at 11:00 PM EDT", "shortDetail": "10/13 - 11:00 PM EDT" } }, "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=1000", "source_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:36:41.402291+00:00", "prospective_eligible": true, "official_sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-12" ], "context": [ "Official NHL gameType2, venue/time and identity matched;16games on Frozen Frenzy schedule. NHL remains tracking-only; not preseason." ], "rest_travel": [ { "side": "away", "team": "Boston Bruins", "previous_game": { "id": "401892469", "date": "2026-10-10T17:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1824", "fullName": "TD Garden", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Boston", "state": "MA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "15", "away_name": "Philadelphia Flyers", "away_score": 1.0, "home": "1", "home_name": "Boston Bruins", "home_score": 5.0, "day": 20736.708333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." }, { "side": "home", "team": "San Jose Sharks", "previous_game": { "id": "401892471", "date": "2026-10-10T20:00Z", "completed": true, "state": "STATUS_FINAL", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1653", "fullName": "SAP Center at San Jose", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Jose", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "6", "away_name": "Edmonton Oilers", "away_score": 3.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "San Jose Sharks", "home_score": 1.0, "day": 20736.833333333332 }, "days_between_start_dates": 3, "interpretation": "Calendar interval from retained completed result, not flight or actual rest hours. No unsupported rest coefficient." } ], "weather": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "official_event_id": 2026020105, "stage_label": "Regular season / tracking only" }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Polly Ticks": { "finding": "assessment: Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None", "details": { "assessment": "Indoor arena; no direct exterior-weather score adjustment.", "numerical_adjustment": null }, "reviewer": "Independent schedule agent" }, "Liberty Belle": { "finding": "Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.", "reviewer": "Parent research-isolation audit" }, "Warren Bullion": { "finding": "Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. 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"https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "tu": { "id": "401892503", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892503", "date": "2026-10-14T03:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1653", "fullName": "SAP Center at San Jose", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "San Jose", "state": "CA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "1", "away_name": "Boston Bruins", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "18", "home_name": "San Jose Sharks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "formula": "2025/26 regular-season offense/opposing-defense arithmetic mean, no goalie or venue bonus", "away_score": 3.4024349999999997, "home_score": 3.0243849999999997, "unrounded_score": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "legacy_internal_rounded_score": [ 3.4, 3.02 ], "rounding_note": "Original arithmetic retained without premature storage rounding, as current 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Half-point display only.", "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.26829, "pa": 3.01219, "official_team_id": 6, "official_team_name": "Boston Bruins" }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.03658, "pa": 3.53658, "official_team_id": 28, "official_team_name": "San Jose Sharks" } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season retained; preseason/current small sample gets no weight." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.4024349999999997, 5.402435 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "NFL descriptive retrospective error allowance; other sports inherited descriptive/provisional allowance. No calibrated coverage claim." }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261013&limit=200", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\scoring\\slate-NHL.json", "sha256": "33eafda3515f36bcc42de3a35ce8089b82c84b630ad604df844ae9b8e929e0cd" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-13-Research\\tightenup\\NHL.json", "sha256": "328e317c45660222a5a093b521ab735af9e48c112148505576ad2984fabf0be8" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Tracking-only policy; explicit sport activation and calibrated buffers/distribution absent.", "resolved": false } ], "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": 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Clifton" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:48", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020070, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "BOS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020070/boxscore", "playerId": 8477507, "name": { "default": "N. Zadorov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 4, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "22:37", "shifts": 23 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "Primary": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020070/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: none in latest participating group.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8479987, "player": "Morgan Geekie", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8485395, "player": "James Hagens", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8479661, "player": "Tanner Jeannot", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8480355, "player": "Mark Kastelic", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8482177, "player": "Marat Khusnutdinov", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8476374, "player": "Sean Kuraly", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8477496, "player": "Elias Lindholm", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8483489, "player": "Fraser Minten", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8479999, "player": "Casey Mittelstadt", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8477956, "player": "David Pastrnak", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8482175, "player": "JJ Peterka", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8483505, "player": "Matthew Poitras", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8478401, "player": "Pavel Zacha", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8481219, "player": "Jonathan Aspirot", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8478840, "player": "Will Borgen", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8483017, "player": "Frederic Brunet", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8477365, "player": "Connor Clifton", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8476854, "player": "Hampus Lindholm", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8482511, "player": "Mason Lohrei", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8479325, "player": "Charlie McAvoy", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8477507, "player": "Nikita Zadorov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8480022, "player": "Michael DiPietro", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" }, { "team": "BOS", "player_id": 8480280, "player": "Jeremy Swayman", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/BOS/current" } ], "availability_flags": [], "comparison_player_ids": [ 8476374, 8476854, 8477365, 8477496, 8477507, 8477956, 8478401, 8478840, 8479325, 8479661, 8479987, 8479999, 8480022, 8480280, 8480355, 8481219, 8482175, 8482177, 8482511, 8483017, 8483489, 8483505, 8485395 ], "two_season_comparison_rows": [ { "shootingPct": 0.06818, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8476374, "teamAbbrevs": "CBJ", "points": 17, "assists": 11, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 88, "timeOnIcePerGame": 705.8414, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 6, "skaterFullName": "Sean Kuraly", "goals": 6, "evPoints": 17, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.08571, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 17, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8476854, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS", "points": 7, "assists": 4, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 35, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1251.3529, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 1, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 3, "skaterFullName": "Hampus Lindholm", "goals": 3, "evPoints": 6, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=100&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.01587, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 73, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477365, "teamAbbrevs": "BUF", "points": 16, "assists": 15, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 63, "timeOnIcePerGame": 962.9178, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 3, "evGoals": 1, "skaterFullName": "Connor Clifton", "goals": 1, "evPoints": 13, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.11184, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477496, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS", "points": 47, "assists": 30, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 152, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1084.6707, "ppGoals": 2, "ppPoints": 14, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 3, "evGoals": 14, "skaterFullName": "Elias Lindholm", "goals": 17, "evPoints": 30, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.03809, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8477507, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS", "points": 22, "assists": 18, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 105, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1236.679, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 2, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "Nikita Zadorov", "goals": 4, "evPoints": 20, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.13479, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 3, "playerId": 8477956, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS", "points": 106, "assists": 63, "positionCode": "R", "shots": 319, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1211.1707, "ppGoals": 9, "ppPoints": 23, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 34, "skaterFullName": "David Pastrnak", "goals": 43, "evPoints": 83, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=200&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.10606, "shGoals": 2, "gamesPlayed": 82, "otGoals": 2, "playerId": 8478401, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS", "points": 47, "assists": 33, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 132, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1143.7439, "ppGoals": 2, "ppPoints": 7, "gameWinningGoals": 5, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 3, "evGoals": 10, "skaterFullName": "Pavel Zacha", "goals": 14, "evPoints": 37, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.06172, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 84, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8478840, "teamAbbrevs": "SEA,NYR", "points": 15, "assists": 10, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 81, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1024.8928, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "William Borgen", "goals": 5, "evPoints": 14, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=300&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.07142, "shGoals": 1, "gamesPlayed": 50, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8479325, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS", "points": 23, "assists": 16, "positionCode": "D", "shots": 98, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1420.22, "ppGoals": 2, "ppPoints": 4, "gameWinningGoals": 2, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 1, "evGoals": 4, "skaterFullName": "Charlie McAvoy", "goals": 7, "evPoints": 18, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.125, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 67, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8479661, "teamAbbrevs": "LAK", "points": 13, "assists": 6, "positionCode": "L", "shots": 56, "timeOnIcePerGame": 661.0, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 1, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 7, "skaterFullName": "Tanner Jeannot", "goals": 7, "evPoints": 13, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.22, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 77, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8479987, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS", "points": 57, "assists": 24, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 150, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1015.2207, "ppGoals": 4, "ppPoints": 9, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 29, "skaterFullName": "Morgan Geekie", "goals": 33, "evPoints": 48, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.14285, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 81, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8479999, "teamAbbrevs": "COL,BOS", "points": 40, "assists": 25, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 105, "timeOnIcePerGame": 1023.8271, "ppGoals": 3, "ppPoints": 13, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 12, "skaterFullName": "Casey Mittelstadt", "goals": 15, "evPoints": 27, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=400&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.07462, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 61, "otGoals": 0, "playerId": 8480355, "teamAbbrevs": "BOS", "points": 14, "assists": 9, "positionCode": "C", "shots": 67, "timeOnIcePerGame": 644.1639, "ppGoals": 0, "ppPoints": 0, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "seasonId": 20242025, "shPoints": 0, "evGoals": 5, "skaterFullName": "Mark Kastelic", "goals": 5, "evPoints": 14, "game_type": 2, "stage": "regular", "source": "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/skater/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=500&limit=1000&sort=%5B%7B%22property%22%3A+%22playerId%22%2C+%22direction%22%3A+%22ASC%22%7D%5D&cayenneExp=seasonId%3D20242025+and+gameTypeId%3D2" }, { "shootingPct": 0.15606, "shGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 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"SH_seconds": 5 }, { "player_id": 8476885, "player": "Jacob Trouba", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1059, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 169 }, { "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 706.2493098322361, "PP_seconds": 13.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 760.8995540454449, "PP_seconds": 0.0, "SH_seconds": 179.47826086956522 }, { "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 965.8379698449777, "PP_seconds": 13.0, "SH_seconds": 59.826086956521735 }, { "player_id": 8484806, "player": "Sam Dickinson", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 956, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 44 }, { "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 683.1280526651094, "PP_seconds": 13.0, "SH_seconds": 0.0 }, { "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1088.8010193246973, "PP_seconds": 107.0, "SH_seconds": 123.82608695652173 }, { "player_id": 8477498, "player": "Darnell Nurse", "position": "D", "EV_seconds": 1126, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 190 }, { "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1268.5162454873646, "PP_seconds": 107.0, "SH_seconds": 6.956521739130435 }, { "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 776.6640475684859, "PP_seconds": 13.0, "SH_seconds": 16.695652173913043 } ], "strength_totals": { "EV_seconds": 16304.0, "PP_seconds": 708.0, "SH_seconds": 960.0 }, "calculation": "Reallocate missing observed EV/PP/SH seconds among demonstrated same-position-group reference skaters in proportion to each strength exposure. Explicit shortened-bench sensitivity; final dressing replacement and PP-unit labels not invented.", "unassigned_dressing_slot": "Current reserve choice unconfirmed; no independent scoring contribution assumed." } ], "PP_units": "Unconfirmed unless separately identified in primary update; workload is not an inferred unit label", "line_combinations": "October13 morning projections not yet published; current actual participants and specifically sourced return lines retained", "OT_note": "Actual reference exposures retain any overtime; not a promise of identical penalty or overtime time." }, "reference_lineup": [ { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8484227, "name": { "default": "W. Smith" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:11", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8477505, "name": { "default": "A. Wennberg" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:32", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8476624, "name": { "default": "B. Goodrow" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "10:15", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8478975, "name": { "default": "M. Marchment" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "17:46", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8486103, "name": { "default": "I. Stenberg" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:09", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8480748, "name": { "default": "K. Sherwood" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:15", "shifts": 23 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8484911, "name": { "default": "C. Graf" }, "position": "R", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "14:13", "shifts": 18 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8482859, "name": { "default": "Z. Ostapchuk" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "08:01", "shifts": 13 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8484801, "name": { "default": "M. Celebrini" }, "position": "C", "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "points": 1, "sog": 2, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:59", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8475726, "name": { "default": "T. Toffoli" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:25", "shifts": 15 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8485402, "name": { "default": "M. Misa" }, "position": "C", "goals": 0, "assists": 1, "points": 1, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "12:44", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8484994, "name": { "default": "I. Chernyshov" }, "position": "L", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "11:03", "shifts": 16 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8484806, "name": { "default": "S. Dickinson" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "16:40", "shifts": 19 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8480891, "name": { "default": "M. Kesselring" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "19:03", "shifts": 24 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8475200, "name": { "default": "D. Orlov" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "18:18", "shifts": 21 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8477498, "name": { "default": "D. Nurse" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 5, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "21:56", "shifts": 25 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8484152, "name": { "default": "L. Cagnoni" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:21", "shifts": 22 }, { "event_id": 2026020072, "date": "2026-10-10", "stage": "regular", "team": "SJS", "role": "defense", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "playerId": 8476885, "name": { "default": "J. Trouba" }, "position": "D", "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "points": 0, "sog": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "toi": "20:41", "shifts": 22 } ], "offensive_adjustment": null, "transaction_review_status": "Official October12 trade register refreshed; September onward both-party ledger retained", "transaction_source": null, "transaction_date": null, "former_team": null, "new_team": null, "trade_player_id": null, "trade_player": null, "pre_trade_role": null, "expected_post_trade_role": null, "trade_offensive_adjustment": null, "trade_defensive_adjustment": null, "trade_adjustment_units": "goals", "adjustment_units": "goals", "reason": "Requires event-specific replacement and transaction confirmation; blank adjustments are unestimated, not zero", "overlay_version": "offensive-replacement-v1", "reviewed_utc": "2026-10-13T05:43:43.858712+00:00", "version": "event-review-2026-10-13-v1", "required_comparison_gaps": [], "base_scores_away_home": { "Classic": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "Primary": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ] }, "adjusted_scores_away_home": { "Classic": null, "Primary": null, "Tighten Up ON": null, "Tighten Up OFF": null }, "adjusted_score_status": "UNESTIMATED; preserve original model means separately, never label base as adjusted", "football_minus3": 0, "price_inputs_used": false, "baseline_exposure": "Registered team aggregates include mixed player availability and trades; exact player exposure not identified. Workload branches are sensitivities, not calibrated incremental corrections.", "numerical_conversion_status": "UNESTIMATED: no validated role/opponent controlled run/PPP/goal conversion and exact baseline exposure", "uncertainty": "Unannounced current roles conditional; no unsupported impact coefficient. Missing data not zero ability.", "gate_outcome": "TRACKING_ONLY_CONDITIONAL", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/gamecenter/2026020072/boxscore", "https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-october-12-2026", "https://www.nhl.com/news/topic/trade-coverage/2026-27-nhl-trades" ], "findings": "Latest official actual regular-season skaters and strength-state exposure retained. Dated roster injury flags checked against subsequent participation; old statuses do not override actual play. No newly verified trade/absence is omitted from conditional branches. Recent-reference new availability branches: Barclay Goodrow.", "reference_date": "2026-10-10", "current_roster_availability": [ { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8479718, "player": "Alex Barr\u00e9-Boulet", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8480848, "player": "Ty Dellandrea", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8478874, "player": "Adam Gaudette", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "role": "forwards", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8482700, "player": "Nolan Allan", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484152, "player": "Luca Cagnoni", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8484806, "player": "Sam Dickinson", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8480891, "player": "Michael Kesselring", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8477498, "player": "Darnell Nurse", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8475200, "player": "Dmitry Orlov", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8476885, "player": "Jacob Trouba", "position": "D", "role": "defensemen", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8482137, "player": "Yaroslav Askarov", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" }, { "team": "SJS", "player_id": 8477968, "player": "Alex Nedeljkovic", "position": "G", "role": "goalies", "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/roster/SJS/current" } ], "availability_flags": [ { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Alex Barre-Boulet", "player_id": "4270820", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:21Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.506119+00:00" }, { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "player_id": "3069411", "injuries": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T19:26Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.506119+00:00" }, { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Cam Lund", "player_id": "5080203", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:15Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.506119+00:00" }, { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Quentin Musty", "player_id": "5149209", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:20Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.506119+00:00" }, { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Adam Gaudette", "player_id": "3942868", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T17:55Z" } ], "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/teams/18/roster", "source_utc": "2026-10-13T05:39:31.506119+00:00" }, { "team": "San Jose Sharks", "abbreviation": "SJ", "player": "Kyle Keyser", "player_id": "4329962", "injuries": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:10Z" } ], "source": 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"shTimeOnIcePerGame": 90.66666, "shifts": 59, "shiftsPerGame": 19.66666, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Sam Dickinson", "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 2931, "timeOnIcePerGame": 977.0, "timeOnIcePerShift": 49.67796 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3873, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 774.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Graf", "otTimeOnIce": 0, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 0.0, "playerId": 8484911, "positionCode": "R", "ppTimeOnIce": 0, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 609, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 121.8, "shifts": 95, "shiftsPerGame": 19.0, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Collin Graf", "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 4482, "timeOnIcePerGame": 896.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.17894 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3573, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 714.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Chernyshov", "otTimeOnIce": 82, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 27.33333, "playerId": 8484994, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 649, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 129.8, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 16, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 3.2, "shifts": 89, "shiftsPerGame": 17.8, "shootsCatches": "R", "skaterFullName": "Igor Chernyshov", "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 4238, "timeOnIcePerGame": 847.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 47.61797 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 3738, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 747.6, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Misa", "otTimeOnIce": 40, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 13.33333, "playerId": 8485402, "positionCode": "C", "ppTimeOnIce": 376, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 75.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 34, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 6.8, "shifts": 86, "shiftsPerGame": 17.2, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Michael Misa", "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 4148, "timeOnIcePerGame": 829.6, "timeOnIcePerShift": 48.23255 }, { "evTimeOnIce": 4216, "evTimeOnIcePerGame": 843.2, "gamesPlayed": 5, "lastName": "Stenberg", "otTimeOnIce": 134, "otTimeOnIcePerOtGame": 44.66666, "playerId": 8486103, "positionCode": "L", "ppTimeOnIce": 491, "ppTimeOnIcePerGame": 98.2, "seasonId": 20262027, "shTimeOnIce": 0, "shTimeOnIcePerGame": 0.0, "shifts": 94, "shiftsPerGame": 18.8, "shootsCatches": "L", "skaterFullName": "Ivar Stenberg", "teamAbbrevs": "SJS", "timeOnIce": 4707, "timeOnIcePerGame": 941.4, "timeOnIcePerShift": 50.07446 } ] }, "opportunity_status": "CONDITIONAL_EV_PP_SH_EXPOSURE_AND_BRANCHES_RECONCILED", "canonical_espn_event_id": "401892503", "scores_carried_for_research": { "Classic": [ 3.3248030018761727, 3.0069981238273926 ], "Primary": [ 3.4078897771498022, 2.9482328838004164 ], "Tighten Up ON": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ], "Tighten Up OFF": [ 3.4024349999999997, 3.0243849999999997 ] }, "availability_comparisons": [ { "incumbent_id": 8479718, "incumbent": "Alex Barre-Boulet", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:21Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8479718, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8479718/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "10:10", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 2, "plusMinus": -2, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Canadiens" }, "teamName": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al Canadiens", "fr": "Canadiens de Montr\u00e9al" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Montr\u00e9al", "fr": "de Montr\u00e9al" } }, { "assists": 41, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 64, "goals": 22, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 42, "plusMinus": 18, "points": 63, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 8, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 13, "goals": 3, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 16, "plusMinus": -3, "points": 11, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Laval Rocket" } }, { "assists": 1, "avgToi": "8:24", "faceoffWinningPctg": 1.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 1, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 0, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Avalanche" }, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Avalanche", "fr": "Avalanche du Colorado" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Colorado", "fr": "du Colorado" } }, { "assists": 44, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 70, "goals": 26, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 30, "plusMinus": 15, "points": 70, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Eagles" } }, { "assists": 7, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 17, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "AHL", "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 3, "points": 12, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Colorado Eagles" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 416, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 971, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 480, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 135 }, { "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 982, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 672, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 129 }, { "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 919, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 43 }, { "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 650, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1036, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1207, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 5 }, { "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 12 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": 8476624, "incumbent": "Barclay Goodrow", "status": [ { "status": "Day-To-Day", "date": "2026-10-12T19:26Z" } ], "reference_present": true, "reference_role": { "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 480, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 135 }, "history": [ { "player_id": 8476624, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8476624/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 3, "avgToi": "13:47", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.428571, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 77, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 75, "plusMinus": -37, "points": 8, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.068493, "shorthandedGoals": 1, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 73, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "11:21", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.4, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 82, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 73, "plusMinus": -18, "points": 12, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.075758, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 66, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } }, { "assists": 0, "avgToi": "12:00", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 5, "goals": 0, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 0, "plusMinus": 0, "points": 0, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20262027, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.0, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 3, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 416, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 971, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 982, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 672, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 129 }, { "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 919, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 43 }, { "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 650, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1036, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1207, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 5 }, { "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 12 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Actual participation and dated injury flag reconciled; new conditional exclusion branch when contemporaneous, otherwise old status not treated as new confirmed loss.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Cam Lund", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:15Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Quentin Musty", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:20Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." }, { "incumbent_id": 8478874, "incumbent": "Adam Gaudette", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-10-10T17:55Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [ { "player_id": 8478874, "source": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/player/8478874/landing", "season_totals": [ { "assists": 7, "avgToi": "10:25", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.502857, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 4, "gamesPlayed": 81, "goals": 19, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 12, "plusMinus": 12, "points": 26, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 3, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.211111, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 90, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 0, "gameTypeId": 2, "gamesPlayed": 1, "goals": 2, "leagueAbbrev": "JPL-Pro", "points": 2, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Top Line Hockey" } }, { "assists": 2, "avgToi": "9:17", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.346154, "gameTypeId": 3, "gameWinningGoals": 0, "gamesPlayed": 6, "goals": 1, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 4, "plusMinus": 2, "points": 3, "powerPlayGoals": 0, "powerPlayPoints": 0, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.25, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 1, "shots": 4, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs" }, "teamName": { "default": "Ottawa Senators", "fr": "S\u00e9nateurs d'Ottawa" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "Ottawa", "fr": "d'Ottawa" } }, { "assists": 3, "gameTypeId": 3, "gamesPlayed": 2, "goals": 5, "leagueAbbrev": "JPL-Pro", "points": 8, "season": 20242025, "sequence": 11, "teamName": { "default": "Top Line Hockey" } }, { "assists": 8, "avgToi": "11:28", "faceoffWinningPctg": 0.476703, "gameTypeId": 2, "gameWinningGoals": 3, "gamesPlayed": 66, "goals": 17, "leagueAbbrev": "NHL", "otGoals": 0, "pim": 20, "plusMinus": -9, "points": 25, "powerPlayGoals": 3, "powerPlayPoints": 6, "season": 20252026, "sequence": 1, "shootingPctg": 0.177083, "shorthandedGoals": 0, "shorthandedPoints": 0, "shots": 96, "teamCommonName": { "default": "Sharks" }, "teamName": { "default": "San Jose Sharks", "fr": "Sharks de San Jose" }, "teamPlaceNameWithPreposition": { "default": "San Jose", "fr": "de San Jose" } } ], "missing_history_is_not_zero": true } ], "observed_redistribution_pool": [ { "player_id": 8482859, "player": "Zack Ostapchuk", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 416, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 65 }, { "player_id": 8478975, "player": "Mason Marchment", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 971, "PP_seconds": 95, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8476624, "player": "Barclay Goodrow", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 480, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 135 }, { "player_id": 8484227, "player": "Will Smith", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1102, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 2 }, { "player_id": 8486103, "player": "Ivar Stenberg", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 982, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8475726, "player": "Tyler Toffoli", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 672, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8484911, "player": "Collin Graf", "position": "R", "EV_seconds": 724, "PP_seconds": 0, "SH_seconds": 129 }, { "player_id": 8480748, "player": "Kiefer Sherwood", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 919, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 43 }, { "player_id": 8484994, "player": "Igor Chernyshov", "position": "L", "EV_seconds": 650, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 0 }, { "player_id": 8477505, "player": "Alexander Wennberg", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1036, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 89 }, { "player_id": 8484801, "player": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 1207, "PP_seconds": 107, "SH_seconds": 5 }, { "player_id": 8485402, "player": "Michael Misa", "position": "C", "EV_seconds": 739, "PP_seconds": 13, "SH_seconds": 12 } ], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": null }, { "incumbent_id": null, "incumbent": "Kyle Keyser", "status": [ { "status": "Injured Reserve", "date": "2026-09-28T22:10Z" } ], "reference_present": false, "reference_role": null, "history": [], "observed_redistribution_pool": [], "opportunity_accounting": "EV/PP/SH pool is subset of reconciled team exposure, not extra minutes; do not sum overlapping absence scenarios. No roster-order line/PP assignment.", "conclusion": "Latest actual lineup already excludes player; current skater opportunity pool represents observed post-absence allocation. Exact causal replacement/line pairing not assigned without primary evidence.", "numerical_effect": null, "identity_limit": "Player absent from current official roster; inactive/legacy listing not presumed current material role. No invented NHL ID or statistics." } ] } ], "elapsed": false, "matchup": "Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks", "market": { "id": "401892503", "quotes": [ { "provider": "DraftKings", "provider_id": "100", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/summary?event=401892503", "requested_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:31.804172+00:00", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-13T05:52:32.036004+00:00", "home_line": -1.5, "away_line": 1.5, "home_line_price": 220.0, "away_line_price": -270.0, "total": 6.5, "under_line": 6.5, "over_price": 110.0, "under_price": -130.0, "home_ml": -115.0, "away_ml": -105.0, "moneyline_complete": true, "spread_complete": true, "total_complete": true } ], "average_home_line": -1.5, "average_total": 6.5, "spread_quote_count": 1, "total_quote_count": 1, "average_status": "SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus" }, "comparisons": { "Classic": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.3178048780487801, "combined": 6.331801125703565, "spread_buffer": -1.81780487804878, "total_difference": -0.16819887429643465 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.3178048780487801, "combined": 6.331801125703565, "spread_buffer": -1.81780487804878, "total_difference": -0.16819887429643465 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Primary": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.45965689334938586, "combined": 6.356122660950218, "spread_buffer": -1.9596568933493859, "total_difference": -0.14387733904978184 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.45965689334938586, "combined": 6.356122660950218, "spread_buffer": -1.9596568933493859, "total_difference": -0.14387733904978184 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.37805, "combined": 6.426819999999999, "spread_buffer": -1.87805, "total_difference": -0.07318000000000069 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.37805, "combined": 6.426819999999999, "spread_buffer": -1.87805, "total_difference": -0.07318000000000069 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "values": { "base": { "margin": -0.37805, "combined": 6.426819999999999, "spread_buffer": -1.87805, "total_difference": -0.07318000000000069 }, "adjusted": { "margin": -0.37805, "combined": 6.426819999999999, "spread_buffer": -1.87805, "total_difference": -0.07318000000000069 } }, "gates": { "spread": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] }, "total": { "state": "LEAN", "decision": "PASS / tracking only", "reasons": [ "PASS / tracking only" ] } }, "publication_status": "NO WAGER PUBLISHED", "moneyline": "No validated model probability edge", "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null } }, "agreement": { "base": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true }, "adjusted": { "winner": true, "spread": true, "total": true, "winner + spread": true, "winner + total": true, "spread + total": true, "winner + spread + total": true } }, "directions": { "base": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] }, "adjusted": { "winner": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "spread": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ], "total": [ -1, -1, -1, -1 ] } } } ] }