Official final — October 9
Columbia Lions 41, Marist Red Foxes 28 · NO GRADE. Original pregame selection and quoted line are preserved. No stake or cash profit was assigned. Official result.
NCAA-FB · Friday, October 9, 2026 · Oct 9, 7:00 PM ET
Columbia Lions at Marist Red Foxes: Tighten Up OFF forecast
This edition uses the registered Tighten Up score engine and normal OFF selection rules. High-risk exclusions, replacement reviews and tracking-only restrictions still apply. Basketball and hockey remain PASS / NOT LIVE. Scores are projected means; no calibrated wagering-confidence percentage or stake is assigned.
Final Call
Columbia’s three-game current sample conflicts with the fixed 50 percent registered weight; both configurations remain ineligible.
No wager is selected. A numerical lean does not override a failed risk, sample or buffer gate.
Matchup at a Glance
Columbia Lions at Marist Red Foxes · Oct 9, 7:00 PM ET · Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field
Production sensitivity: Columbia Lions 16.0 — Marist Red Foxes 30.5
Base forecast: Columbia Lions 16.0 — Marist Red Foxes 30.5. Descriptive team ranges: 0.0–36.0 away; 10.5–50.5 home. These ranges are not calibrated prediction intervals.
Current Matchup Snapshot
| Market | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -130 | +104 |
| Spread / puck line | -1.5 (-111) | +1.5 (-112) |
| Total 43.5 | Over (-111) | Under (-111) |
DraftKings via ESPN · Oct 9, 8:39 AM ET (2026-10-09T12:39:16.971Z). Source snapshot. Single-provider quote, not a multi-book consensus; prices may change.
Evidence-Based Analysis
PASS: both markets; noncompliant research forecast. Tighten Up Conservative OFF displays Columbia Lions 16.0, Marist Red Foxes 30.5 as projected means. The unrounded baseline is 16.2183–30.4983; the retained production scenario is 16.2183–30.4983. The adjusted combined mean is 46.72, with a signed home margin of +14.28. These are scoring expectations rather than a promised final result, and the market assessment belongs to the timestamped reviewed quote.
The registered engine blends prior and current regular-season matchup rates equally, adds its bounded team-strength correction and the documented home term, and keeps each team score separate. Columbia Lions has 3 current games, scoring 22.33 and allowing 28.67 per game; Marist Red Foxes has 5, scoring 25.40 and allowing 14.80. Recorded drive evidence is preserved separately and does not add an extra scoring coefficient.
Current official role reviews identify Columbia's Goodwin, Johnson, Coleman and Dougherty group and Marist's Mannino, Simmons and Cardillo group, with no newly established covered-role absence. There is therefore no automatic football replacement deduction. The crucial issue is the sample definition: Columbia has only three completed current-season games, whereas Marist has five. The inherited Tighten Up formula gives current scoring and team margin a fixed 50 percent share. The canonical policy allows a maximum 25 percent share at Columbia's sample size, so the unchanged arithmetic cannot qualify for production.
The calculation is still retained for transparent comparison. Its FCS implementation is documented, uses no same-division class adjustment and carries a wider descriptive team allowance than the FBS games. Columbia's offensive drive proxy is about 2.28 points per recorded possession, compared with Marist's 2.12. These small current samples are context rather than a reason to bypass the cap. Columbia hosted Princeton on October 3 and now makes the regional trip to Poughkeepsie. The forecast is cool and calm; that removes an obvious weather complication but does nothing to repair the weighting conflict.
The reviewed Marist +1.5 produces a large apparent discrepancy against the scoring mean. It is nevertheless a PASS because a price cannot cure an invalid input-weight combination. The combined mean also falls short of the OFF total-buffer requirement against 43.5. No ad hoc reweighting is made to manufacture an eligible forecast after prices become visible. A future policy-compliant version would need explicit documentation and a separately preserved run. This game's eventual outcome will still be useful for checking the recorded research score, but PASS is not graded as a wager.
The inherited descriptive allowance is ±20 points per team; it is not a calibrated probability interval. No selected-market win percentage or exact-score probability is available from these means. Final results will be compared with the original baseline and any labeled adjustment, with PASS games graded as forecasts rather than wagers.
Base Forecast and Replacement Scenarios
Registered engine: tighten-up-ncaaf-mismatch-v1. Unrounded base 16.218333333333334 / 30.49833333333333; production sensitivity 16.218333333333334 / 30.49833333333333. Scores are displayed to the nearest half point.
Registered score retained; no numerical overlay applied; does not assert zero true effect. The user-authorized football −3 is a separately labeled human assumption. It is not a validated replacement coefficient. No automatic opponent boost, fixed trade deduction or blind addition of overlapping losses is used.
No football deduction applies. Supported lineup adjustments remain unestimated where workload or a validated scoring conversion is unavailable.
Personnel, workload and in-season trade review
- reviewer
- Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained
- personnel
- team
- Marist Red Foxes
- roles
- QB
- Sonny Mannino
- RB
- Isaiah Simmons
- Lincoln Cardillo
- WR
- Reed Shumpert:11/187
- Jayden Taylor:13/181
- Zach Garmont:13/154/1TD
- TE
- Joey Bemis 0rec/0yd in5GP
- Richie Lang 0rec/0yd in5GP; no material receiving TE in complete table
- review
- Official previews establish Mannino and rushing role; Cardillo is a captain, not proof of lead workload. No verified covered-role absence. Complete receiving table cross-checked against official roster; no material receiving TE. Mannino84/137,972yd,6TD/2INT; Simmons50/203,Cardillo33/125.
- sources
- marist_preview
- columbia_preview
- football-role-supplement-ivy.json
- team
- Columbia Lions
- roles
- QB
- Chase Goodwin
- RB
- Griffin Johnson:64/308/1TD in3GP
- Michael Walters:17/73 in2GP
- Jahmir Pitcher:7/44 in3GP
- WR
- Bryce Coleman:20/270/4TD
- Hutch Crow:16/178
- Beckett Robinson:6/127
- Gavin Barth:8/86
- TE
- Braden Dougherty:10/117/1TD in3GP, material receiving role
- review
- Official preview confirms Goodwin and Coleman. Explicit identity safeguard: Kai Honda 219-yard paragraph describes Princeton production, not Columbia backfield. No verified covered-role absence. Full current cumulative resolves RB, WR and TE hierarchy; no qualifying new absence verified.
- sources
- columbia_preview
- football-role-supplement-ivy.json
- availability
- confidence
- Moderate-high for official current role hierarchy; no known new covered-role absence
- productionDelta
- 0
- 0
- availabilityBranches
- name
- Goodwin/Johnson/Coleman/Dougherty versus Mannino/Simmons/Cardillo
- delta
- 0
- 0
- side
- Columbia has only three current games; opponent-strength and FCS scoring allocation must be shrunk to stable baseline. Marist offensive improvement must appear in conservative opponent-offense case.
- total
- Small current sample and red-zone/turnover variance require independent three-point total stress. Calm forecast supplies no numerical bonus.
- risks
- risk
- Three-game Columbia sample violates documented fixed 50 percent TU current influence versus 25 percent cap
- severity
- HIGH
- hard gate
- true
- resolution
- Retain original engine arithmetic as research-only; both TU configurations PASS. No unrequested weight edit.
- tracking
- Unavailable
Complete official personnel and both-team trade evidence · Offensive tracking source audit and limitations. Prior and current team-split histories remain separate; unestimated effects are not zero effects.
Separate Side and Total Decisions
| Market | State | Selection / lean | Base cushion | Stressed cushion | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| spread | LEAN | Marist Red Foxes +1.5 | 15.780 | 12.780 | PASS Hard sample-cap failure: Columbia 3 current games, fixed50% exceeds25%; no live tier in either configuration. |
| total | LEAN | Over 43.5 | 3.217 | 0.217 | PASS Hard sample-cap failure: Columbia 3 current games, fixed50% exceeds25%; no live tier in either configuration. Base cushion 3.216667 below 4-point OFF floor. An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder. |
Availability branches, adverse-case scores and risk decisions
- event id
- 401868265
- configuration
- OFF
- market
- spread
- selection
- Marist Red Foxes +1.5
- direction
- home
- line
- 1.5
- odds
- -112
- state
- LEAN
- tier
- Unavailable
- eligible
- false
- selected
- false
- reasons
- Hard sample-cap failure: Columbia 3 current games, fixed50% exceeds25%; no live tier in either configuration.
- unresolved high
- 1
- unresolved medium
- 0
- base buffer
- 15.779999999999998
- required buffer
- 3
- stressed buffer
- 12.779999999999998
- stress
- availability pairs
- name
- Production adjusted forecast
- pair
- 16.218333333333334
- 30.49833333333333
- adverse cases
- name
- Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse spread
- pair
- 19.218333333333334
- 30.49833333333333
- remaining buffer
- 12.779999999999998
- unstressed buffer
- 15.779999999999998
- opponent offense
- name
- Conservative offense of actual selected side opponent
- pair
- 16.71
- 30.49833333333333
- remaining buffer
- 15.28833333333333
- method
- Same frozen max(prior/current/mean) procedure and inherited corrections; target actual selected side opponent. Separate from generic swing.
- selected side is projected favorite
- true
- favorite survives
- true
- minimum stressed buffer
- 0
- opponent and generic cases
- Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing.
- sources
- provider
- DraftKings
- quote retrieved utc
- 2026-10-09T12:39:16.971Z
- final check time
- 2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z
- availability check
- Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.
- risk notes
- severity
- HIGH
- risk
- Registered fixed 50% current scoring/margin influence exceeds 25% policy cap for Columbia three-game sample. Arithmetic retained as noncompliant research score; no weight change authorized.
- resolved
- false
- hard gate
- true
- severity
- LOW
- risk
- Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.
- resolved
- false
- hard gate
- false
- probability
- Unavailable
- scope
- USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON
- numerical gate pass
- true
- publication deadline utc
- 2026-10-09T23:00Z
- pregame at review
- true
- prior review utc
- 2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z
- event id
- 401868265
- configuration
- OFF
- market
- total
- selection
- Over 43.5
- direction
- over
- line
- 43.5
- odds
- -111
- state
- LEAN
- tier
- Unavailable
- eligible
- false
- selected
- false
- reasons
- Hard sample-cap failure: Columbia 3 current games, fixed50% exceeds25%; no live tier in either configuration.
- Base cushion 3.216667 below 4-point OFF floor.
- An applicable availability-plus-adverse case fails the one-point stressed total remainder.
- unresolved high
- 1
- unresolved medium
- 0
- base buffer
- 3.2166666666666686
- required buffer
- 4
- stressed buffer
- 0.21666666666666856
- stress
- availability pairs
- name
- Production adjusted forecast
- pair
- 16.218333333333334
- 30.49833333333333
- adverse cases
- name
- Production adjusted forecast plus independent three-point adverse total
- pair
- 14.718333333333334
- 28.99833333333333
- remaining buffer
- 0.21666666666666856
- unstressed buffer
- 3.2166666666666686
- opponent offense
- Unavailable
- minimum stressed buffer
- 1
- opponent and generic cases
- Separate; no unregistered compulsory stack of offensive regime plus generic swing.
- sources
- provider
- DraftKings
- quote retrieved utc
- 2026-10-09T12:39:16.971Z
- final check time
- 2026-10-09T12:43:50.912Z
- availability check
- Publication refresh evidence in publication-recheck/OFFICIAL-AVAILABILITY-RECHECK.json; no material change found for promoted candidates. Current sources are not claimed to be final inactives.
- risk notes
- severity
- HIGH
- risk
- Registered fixed 50% current scoring/margin influence exceeds 25% policy cap for Columbia three-game sample. Arithmetic retained as noncompliant research score; no weight change authorized.
- resolved
- false
- hard gate
- true
- severity
- LOW
- risk
- Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.
- resolved
- false
- hard gate
- false
- probability
- Unavailable
- scope
- USER-AUTHORIZED STANDALONE OFF EDITION; global default remains ON
- numerical gate pass
- false
- publication deadline utc
- 2026-10-09T23:00Z
- pregame at review
- true
- prior review utc
- 2026-10-09T12:26:19.981Z
Seven-Desk Analysis
Parker Fields
Current official role reviews identify Columbia's Goodwin, Johnson, Coleman and Dougherty group and Marist's Mannino, Simmons and Cardillo group, with no newly established covered-role absence. There is therefore no automatic football replacement deduction. The crucial issue is the sample definition: Columbia has only three completed current-season games, whereas Marist has five.
Uncle Sibursam
The registered engine blends prior and current regular-season matchup rates equally, adds its bounded team-strength correction and the documented home term, and keeps each team score separate. Columbia Lions has 3 current games, scoring 22.33 and allowing 28.67 per game; Marist Red Foxes has 5, scoring 25.40 and allowing 14.80. Recorded drive evidence is preserved separately and does not add an extra scoring coefficient.
Gideon Marsh
Arithmetic retains the 16.2183–30.4983 adjusted pair, total 46.7167 and home margin +14.2800. Side and total were assessed independently, including applicable replacement scenarios before the ordinary adverse test. Columbia’s three-game current sample conflicts with the fixed 50 percent registered weight; both configurations remain ineligible.
ConstitutionOwl
Regular season at Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field. Columbia hosted Princeton Oct 3; five intervening off days. Regional road trip to Poughkeepsie. Source schedule and competition stage are retained with the event record.
Polly Ticks
The verified game-window forecast begins at 59°F with 3 mph wind and 0 percent precipitation chance. Conditions inform the stated uncertainty; no unsupported scoring adjustment is added.
Liberty Belle
Scores and sporting evidence were frozen before the comparison prices were requested. The edition is not described as a fully blind trial because earlier exposure is disclosed. Refreshed source/provider and retrieval time belong in the current market panel; a single provider is not a multi-book average. Prices test the unchanged forecast and never generate its scoring mean.
Warren Bullion
PASS: both markets; noncompliant research forecast. Columbia’s three-game current sample conflicts with the fixed 50 percent registered weight; both configurations remain ineligible. This edition applies OFF rules while preserving every sport activation restriction; unsupported moneyline probabilities remain unavailable.
Availability, Schedule and Conditions
- stage
- Regular season
- venue
- Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field
- startUtc
- 2026-10-09T23:00Z
- scheduleSource
- file
- columbia_preview.json
- url
- gocolumbialions.com
- retrieved
- 2026-10-09T05:34:25.93Z
- scheduleCorrections
- Unavailable
- restTravel
- verified
- Columbia hosted Princeton Oct 3; five intervening off days. Regional road trip to Poughkeepsie.
- unresolved
- Marist prior date and actual itinerary not independently established.
- source
- file
- columbia_preview.json
- url
- gocolumbialions.com
- retrieved
- 2026-10-09T05:34:25.93Z
- sourceGates
- source
- api.weather.gov
- retrieved
- 2026-10-09T11:33:37.538Z
- status
- VERIFIED_NWS_GAME_WINDOW
- periods
- start
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00-04:00
- temperature
- 59
- wind
- 3 mph
- precip
- 0
- forecast
- Clear
- start
- 2026-10-09T20:00:00-04:00
- temperature
- 55
- wind
- 2 mph
- precip
- 0
- forecast
- Mostly Clear
- start
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00-04:00
- temperature
- 52
- wind
- 1 mph
- precip
- 0
- forecast
- Mostly Clear
- start
- 2026-10-09T22:00:00-04:00
- temperature
- 51
- wind
- 1 mph
- precip
- 0
- forecast
- Mostly Clear
- numericAdjustment
- None; official observations inform uncertainty only
Official reports and current previews establish reported status; final active lists and lineups are not claimed when unavailable. A material late change requires a new assessment.
Confidence and Accountability
Selected-market win probability: Unavailable / Not calibrated. Exact-score probability: Unavailable / Not calibrated.
Historical winner accuracy: 2/4 (50.0%) base-score winners on October 8, matching sport/stage; Wilson 95% 15.0–85.0%; 0 skips. Tiny descriptive sample, not today's confidence.
The inherited Sports tracker record belongs to its original published selections, not to this OFF model. Today's base and adjusted forecasts have their own pending grade ledger.
Risks and Uncertainty
Columbia’s three-game current sample conflicts with the fixed 50 percent registered weight; both configurations remain ineligible.
Forecasts are informational, not guarantees or wagering advice. Use licensed operators, set limits and never chase losses. No guaranteed return or validated win probability is claimed.
Sources and Method
Original independent freeze Oct 9, 8:20 AM ET. Earlier price exposure is disclosed; no claim of a blind trial. Refreshed prices were requested after this unchanged freeze. SHA256 dfe084cf911d6a9adf92a4db843b559d8e1413dfd7ed52eecaa095380c937e20.
- api.weather.gov — source evidence
- gocolumbialions.com — source evidence
- site.api.espn.com — source evidence
- site.api.espn.com — source evidence
- site.api.espn.com — source evidence
- site.api.espn.com — source evidence
- site.api.espn.com — source evidence
- site.api.espn.com — source evidence
- site.api.espn.com — source evidence
- site.api.espn.com — source evidence
- site.api.espn.com — source evidence
- site.api.espn.com — source evidence
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