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Qualitative stress, no probability claim.", "favorite_still_wins": true }, "conditional_availability_pairs": [ { "id": "FSU_SINGLETON_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ] }, { "id": "FSU_CARTER_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ] }, { "id": "FSU_JOINT", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ] }, { "id": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 26.5325, 26.180000000000003 ] }, { "id": "LOU_JOINT", "pair": [ 26.5325, 26.180000000000003 ] } ] }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864570", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858212", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856685", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858237", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858253", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856661", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858215", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858230", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858243", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858248" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\slate-NCAAF.json", "sha256": "9e563aefe92a21a65a5fd376bb08b596df3ee183a9a06efd47f50f3639ecc1fb" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\history-NCAAF.json", "sha256": "b59a2346f4647f475e53c99b3da9c7a0c79904a5eca589364b71d652068bf9d2" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Research\\retry-2026-10-09T11-12-08-881Z\\football-independent-review.json", "sha256": "2b65b56b6353767fe3d868dd6ac4b1232cd875d9d1278f21f41c32f7d4b5fdcb" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Louisville Keyjuan Brown questionable; -3 inactive branch retained. Kienholz probable expected active; unexpected absence requires new QB review. FSU material Singleton absence uses required -3 human scenario; statistical impact unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true, "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 4, "minimum_total_buffer": 5, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 4, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. Football side/total point-buffer gates evaluated separately." }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Louisville Keyjuan Brown questionable; -3 inactive branch retained. Kienholz probable expected active; unexpected absence requires new QB review. FSU material Singleton absence uses required -3 human scenario; statistical impact unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true, "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [ { "team": "Florida State Seminoles", "roles": { "QB": [ "Ashton Daniels" ], "RB": [ "Ousmane Kromah", "Quintrevion Wisner", "Samuel Singleton Jr. OUT" ], "WR": [ "Duce Robinson", "Jayvan Boggs", "Micahi Danzy", "Devin Carter OUT: no receiving production in complete current table" ], "TE": [ "Landen Thomas 2rec/13yd/1TD", "Desirrio Riles 2rec/9yd", "Chase Loftin 1rec/8yd" ] }, "review": "Official complete Oct5 cumulative establishes three main WRs and small TE receiving roles. Singleton is a material receiving/change-of-pace back; Kromah and Wisner are the expanded committee candidates. Carter freshman has no current receiving production in the complete table: main-WR trigger not established. Keep isolated Carter hypothetical separate from applicable Singleton scenario.", "sources": [ "ACC report", "louisville_preview", "fsu_singleton", "fsu_carter", "FSU current cumulative", "fsu_wisner" ] }, { "team": "Louisville Cardinals", "roles": { "QB": [ "Lincoln Kienholz probable" ], "RB": [ "Isaac Brown", "Keyjuan Brown questionable" ], "WR": [ "Tre Richardson", "Lawayne McCoy", "Montavin Quisenberry OUT; main role not verified" ], "TE": [ "Jaleel Skinner", "Travis Egan OUT", "Hamilton Atkins OUT", "Brody Foley" ] }, "review": "Keyjuan Brown is a material committee back; questionability stays conditional. Kienholz probable remains expected starter unless evidence changes. Skinner is primary receiving TE by 14 catches/260 yards/3 TD; Richardson 28/445. Egan/Atkins OUT do not establish equivalent receiving losses.", "sources": [ "ACC report", "louisville_preview" ] } ], "availability": { "confidence": "High for published statuses; moderate for Keyjuan workload; probable QB is not final active", "productionDelta": [ -3, 0 ], "availabilityBranches": [ { "name": "Singleton OUT, Keyjuan active, Kienholz expected starter", "delta": [ -3, 0 ] }, { "name": "Singleton OUT, Keyjuan unavailable/materially limited", "delta": [ -3, -3 ] }, { "name": "Unexpected Kienholz absence", "delta": null, "activated": false, "requires": "Identify actual backup and complete player comparison before promotion" } ], "side": "Both Keyjuan branches must preserve same selection after generic margin stress. Kienholz unexpected absence invalidates present backup assumptions. FSU pass rush against Louisville protection losses can alter turnover and drive finishing.", "total": "Apply FSU -3; compare total with Louisville healthy and -3 RB branches, then independent total stress. Defensive absences and Louisville explosive plays form upward-scoring adverse path for an under.", "risks": [ { "risk": "Keyjuan Brown questionable material committee back", "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_BOTH_BRANCHES_SURVIVE", "resolution": "Evaluate healthy and -3 Louisville branches against same future offered line." }, { "risk": "Kienholz probable; Cason Henry questionable, Close/Secrest OUT; current Henry criticality not established", "severity": "UNRESOLVED_ROLE_IMPORTANCE", "resolution": "Do not translate probable to OUT. If a critical OL or starting QB becomes unavailable, rerun availability tree; probable expectation alone is not final confirmation." } ] }, "tracking": null }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap_by_team": { "away": 0.5, "home": 0.5 }, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "drive_early_down_red_zone_turnover_explosive_pressure_extra_mean_influence": 0, "cap_compliant": true }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 8.532499999999999, 44.5325 ], "home": [ 11.180000000000003, 47.18000000000001 ], "base_away": [ 11.532499999999999, 47.5325 ], "base_home": [ 11.180000000000003, 47.18000000000001 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Louisville Cardinals, Primary: Louisville Cardinals, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Florida State Seminoles, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Florida State Seminoles. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "stress": { "home_side_adverse_pair": [ 29.5325, 29.180000000000003 ], "away_side_adverse_pair": [ 26.5325, 32.18000000000001 ], "over_adverse_total": 52.712500000000006, "under_adverse_total": 58.712500000000006, "adverse_margin_points": 3, "adverse_total_points": 3, "minimum_stressed_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_required": true, "price_evaluation": "PENDING_PARENT_POST_FREEZE", "conservative_opponent_offense": { "favorite_side": "home", "score_pair": [ 28.611666666666668, 29.180000000000003 ], "method": "Raise opponent only to max(registered adjusted mean, prior-matchup branch plus existing mismatch/venue/overlay, current-matchup branch plus same terms). Original coefficients unchanged. Qualitative stress, no probability claim.", "favorite_still_wins": true }, "conditional_availability_pairs": [ { "id": "FSU_SINGLETON_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ] }, { "id": "FSU_CARTER_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ] }, { "id": "FSU_JOINT", "pair": [ 26.5325, 29.180000000000003 ] }, { "id": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 26.5325, 26.180000000000003 ] }, { "id": "LOU_JOINT", "pair": [ 26.5325, 26.180000000000003 ] } ] } }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Regular season", "venue": "L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium", "startUtc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "louisville_preview.json", "url": "https://gocards.com/news/2026/10/8/football-cardinals-square-off-with-florida-state-on-friday-night", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:33:44.769Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": "FSU played Virginia Oct3; prior rest gap resolved", "restTravel": { "verified": "Both teams played Oct3: Louisville at NC State and FSU home against Virginia. Five intervening off days.", "unresolved": "Actual itinerary unverified.", "source": "https://gocards.com/news/2026/10/8/football-cardinals-square-off-with-florida-state-on-friday-night" }, "sourceGates": [] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LMK/50,76/forecast/hourly", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:33:37.584Z", "status": "VERIFIED_NWS_GAME_WINDOW", "periods": [ { "start": "2026-10-09T19:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 80, "wind": "6 mph", "precip": 0, "forecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T20:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 76, "wind": "6 mph", "precip": 0, "forecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T21:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 72, "wind": "6 mph", "precip": 0, "forecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T22:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 70, "wind": "6 mph", "precip": 0, "forecast": "Mostly Cloudy" } ], "numericAdjustment": "None; official observations inform uncertainty only" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Louisville Cardinals, Primary: Louisville Cardinals, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Florida State Seminoles, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Florida State Seminoles. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Louisville Keyjuan Brown questionable; -3 inactive branch retained. Kienholz probable expected active; unexpected absence requires new QB review. FSU material Singleton absence uses required -3 human scenario; statistical impact unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "LOU_KEYJUAN_ISOLATED", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true, "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Louisville Cardinals, Primary: Louisville Cardinals, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Florida State Seminoles, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Florida State Seminoles. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LMK/50,76/forecast/hourly", "https://gocards.com/news/2026/10/8/football-cardinals-square-off-with-florida-state-on-friday-night", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856661", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856685", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858212", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858215", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858230", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858237", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858243", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858248", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858253", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864570" ] }, { "id": "401858487", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401858487", "date": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3765", "fullName": "Husky Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Seattle", "state": "WA", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "2294", "away_name": "Iowa Hawkeyes", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "264", "home_name": "Washington Huskies", "home_score": 0.0 }, "date": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "official_date": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "matchup": "Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies", "elapsed": false, "models": { "Classic": { "id": "classic-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 23.204545454545453, 23 ], "adjusted_score": [ 23.204545454545453, 23 ], "display_score": [ 23.0, 23.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 23.0, 23.0 ], "inputs": { "season": 2026, "prior_season": 2025, "k": 6, "league_regular_games": 1344, "league_points_per_team": 26.592261904761905, "latest_eligible_regular_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "venue_per_team": 0.75, "away": { "team": "2294", "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 28.916666666666668, 15.166666666666666 ], "current_rates": [ 29, 12.6 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 28.954545454545453, 13.999999999999998 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401752799", "401752822", "401752830", "401752844", "401752853", "401752869", "401752875", "401752882", "401752898", "401752907", "401752913", "401752916" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401858426", "401856788", "401858471", "401858463", "401858473" ] }, "home": { "team": "264", "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 33.75, 19.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 26.6, 18.4 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 30.5, 18.954545454545453 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401752805", "401752821", "401752842", "401752852", "401752857", "401752862", "401752873", "401752880", "401752899", "401752902", "401752910", "401752917" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401858437", "401858446", "401858459", "401858470", "401858478" ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "hits": 2, "n": 4, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.767Z", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "replacement_scenarios": [ { "id": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "trigger": "Brown unavailable or materially limited and Hecklinski replaces", "status": "CONDITIONAL", "engineId": "classic-2.0.0", "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "baseForecast": 23.204545454545453, "baseAttachment": "classic-candidates.json", "statisticalReplacementDelta": null, "statisticalReplacementEffect": "UNESTIMATED; no validated player-stat-to-points conversion supplied", "statisticalReplacementForecast": null, "retainedBaselineSensitivity": true, "humanDeduction": -3, "additionalAdjustments": 0, "additionalAdjustmentsMeaning": "None estimated; does not assert that true effects are zero", "adjustedFormula": "P - 3", "formulaScope": "P is the parent registered team forecast retained for a labeled human-only sensitivity; do not label this a calibrated replacement forecast", "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; no automatic opponent boost", "reason": "Established QB role plus official limitation; preserve fully available branch at baseline. No opponent boost or calibrated QB point conversion.", "decision": "Only conditional adverse branch; parent must test normal gates against this score.", "baseScorePair": [ 23.204545454545453, 23 ], "assumption": "Retain registered baseline as a sensitivity anchor; statistical replacement effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 4, "minimum_total_buffer": 5, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 4, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. 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Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [ { "team": "Iowa Hawkeyes", "roles": { "QB": [ "Hank Brown questionable/limited", "Jeremy Hecklinski conditional replacement" ], "RB": [ "Kamari Moulton", "LJ Phillips", "Braeden Jackson", "Xavier Williams", "Nathan McNeil" ], "WR": [ "Tony Diaz", "Reece Vander Zee" ], "TE": [ "DJ Vonnahme:4GP,16rec/175yd (primary receiving TE)", "Addison Ostrenga:5GP,7rec/70yd/1TD", "Zach Ortwerth:5GP,3rec/26yd", "Thomas Meyer:5GP,2rec/10yd" ] }, "review": "Oct6 official coach transcript explicitly says Brown limited and team preparing Hecklinski. Coach praises replacement practice readiness; not evidence of no system familiarity. This material scenario was absent from initial saved review. 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No verified new qualifying covered-role absence in captured sources.", "sources": [ "washington_preview", "iowa_press", "washington_stats" ] } ], "availability": { "confidence": "High that coach called Brown questionable; final QB identity conditional", "productionDelta": [ 0, 0 ], "availabilityBranches": [ { "name": "Brown fully available", "delta": [ 0, 0 ] }, { "name": "Brown unavailable/limited, Hecklinski replacement", "delta": [ -3, 0 ] } ], "side": "Selection must survive Brown active and Iowa -3 replacement branches, then adverse margin swing. Washington offense against Iowa safety uncertainty is separate conservative opponent-offense path.", "total": "Under must survive Brown active and stronger Washington offense; over must survive Iowa -3 and independent three-point adverse total swing. Light rain alone has no supported fixed deduction.", "risks": [ { "risk": "Starting QB Brown limited/questionable", "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_BOTH_BRANCHES_SURVIVE", "resolution": "Official Oct6 transcript confirms preparation for Hecklinski; no new final active status located." }, { "risk": "Iowa Tyler Brown OUT and Ty Hudkins questionable; secondary communication and Washington dynamic QB", "severity": "CANDIDATE_DEPENDENT", "resolution": "Represent opposing-offense stress; do not assume fixed points from secondary status." } ] }, "tracking": null }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap_by_team": { "away": 0.5, "home": 0.5 }, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "drive_early_down_red_zone_turnover_explosive_pressure_extra_mean_influence": 0, "cap_compliant": true }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 6.695, 42.695 ], "home": [ 4.767500000000002, 40.7675 ], "base_away": [ 6.695, 42.695 ], "base_home": [ 4.767500000000002, 40.7675 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Iowa Hawkeyes, Primary: Washington Huskies, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Iowa Hawkeyes, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Iowa Hawkeyes. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "stress": { "home_side_adverse_pair": [ 27.695, 22.767500000000002 ], "away_side_adverse_pair": [ 24.695, 25.767500000000002 ], "over_adverse_total": 44.462500000000006, "under_adverse_total": 50.462500000000006, "adverse_margin_points": 3, "adverse_total_points": 3, "minimum_stressed_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_required": true, "price_evaluation": "PENDING_PARENT_POST_FREEZE", "conservative_opponent_offense": { "favorite_side": "away", "score_pair": [ 24.695, 25.196666666666665 ], "method": "Raise opponent only to max(registered adjusted mean, prior-matchup branch plus existing mismatch/venue/overlay, current-matchup branch plus same terms). Original coefficients unchanged. Qualitative stress, no probability claim.", "favorite_still_wins": false }, "conditional_availability_pairs": [ { "id": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 21.695, 22.767500000000002 ] } ] } }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Regular season", "venue": "Husky Stadium", "startUtc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "washington_preview.json", "url": "https://gohuskies.com/news/2026/10/5/football-hawkeyes-headed-to-montlake-for-first-time-in-63-years", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:37:54.164Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": "Official Iowa kickoff 9:05 PM ET; earlier 9 PM feed lock retained", "restTravel": { "verified": "Both teams played Oct 3: Washington at USC, Iowa versus Ohio State. Five intervening off days. Iowa travels from Central to Pacific time; Washington returns home.", "unresolved": "Actual flight/arrival itinerary unverified.", "source": { "file": "washington_preview.json", "url": "https://gohuskies.com/news/2026/10/5/football-hawkeyes-headed-to-montlake-for-first-time-in-63-years", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:37:54.164Z" } }, "sourceGates": [ "Light rain chance 27-33%; account for field conditions without treating as a high-wind game." ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/SEW/126,70/forecast/hourly", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:33:37.402Z", "status": "VERIFIED_NWS_GAME_WINDOW", "periods": [ { "start": "2026-10-09T18:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 56, "wind": "3 mph", "precip": 33, "forecast": "Chance Light Rain" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T19:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 55, "wind": "3 mph", "precip": 27, "forecast": "Chance Light Rain" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T20:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 54, "wind": "3 mph", "precip": 30, "forecast": "Chance Light Rain" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T21:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 53, "wind": "3 mph", "precip": 30, "forecast": "Chance Light Rain" } ], "numericAdjustment": "None; official observations inform uncertainty only" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Iowa Hawkeyes, Primary: Washington Huskies, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Iowa Hawkeyes, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Iowa Hawkeyes. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Iowa Hank Brown limited; Hecklinski prepared. Starting-QB availability unresolved. Active and -3 human-only branches retained, but statistical QB effect remains unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "IOWA_BROWN_ISOLATED", "can_reassess_if_selection_survives_both_branches": true, "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Iowa Hawkeyes, Primary: Washington Huskies, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Iowa Hawkeyes, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Iowa Hawkeyes. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/SEW/126,70/forecast/hourly", "https://gohuskies.com/news/2026/10/5/football-hawkeyes-headed-to-montlake-for-first-time-in-63-years", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856788", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858426", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858437", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858446", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858459", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858463", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858470", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858471", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858473", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858478" ] }, { "id": "401860922", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401860922", "date": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3905", "fullName": "Maverik Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Logan", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "265", "away_name": "Washington State Cougars", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "328", "home_name": "Utah State Aggies", "home_score": 0.0 }, "date": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "official_date": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "matchup": "Washington State Cougars at Utah State Aggies", "elapsed": false, "models": { "Classic": { "id": "classic-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 22.84090909090909, 23.772727272727273 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.84090909090909, 23.772727272727273 ], "display_score": [ 23.0, 24.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 23.0, 24.0 ], "inputs": { "season": 2026, "prior_season": 2025, "k": 6, "league_regular_games": 1344, "league_points_per_team": 26.592261904761905, "latest_eligible_regular_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "venue_per_team": 0.75, "away": { "team": "265", "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 21.583333333333332, 20.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 19, 25 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 20.409090909090907, 22.363636363636363 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401752947", "401752948", "401752949", "401752842", "401752950", "401752733", "401752951", "401752952", "401752943", "401752953", "401752954", "401752946" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401858437", "401856781", "401860890", "401856804", "401860921" ] }, "home": { "team": "328", "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 31.75, 28.25 ], "current_rates": [ 14, 25 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 23.68181818181818, 26.772727272727273 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401757225", "401752694", "401760368", "401760377", "401752725", "401760389", "401760396", "401760400", "401760409", "401760414", "401760417", "401760422" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401860880", "401858446", "401856801", "401860894", "401860898" ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "hits": 2, "n": 4, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; 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do not label this a calibrated replacement forecast", "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; no automatic opponent boost", "reason": "Depth chart change alone is not an availability trigger; healthy competition/rotation gets no automatic injury overlay.", "decision": "Only conditional adverse branch; parent must test normal gates against this score.", "baseScorePair": [ 22.84090909090909, 23.772727272727273 ], "assumption": "Retain registered baseline as a sensitivity anchor; statistical replacement effect remains unestimated, not zero. User human adjustment is separately identified.", "baseDecision": "PASS / uncalibrated probability", "humanOnlyAdjusted": 20.772727272727273, "adjustedScorePair": [ 22.84090909090909, 20.772727272727273 ], "adjustedTotal": 43.61363636363636, "adjustedOwnMargin": -2.0681818181818166, "totalChange": -3, "ownMarginChange": -3, "adjustedDecision": "PASS / unchanged; no opposite-side promotion", "displayAdjustedScore": [ 23, 21 ] } ], "projected_winner": "Utah State Aggies" }, "Primary": { "id": "primary-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 20.694605126616768, 29.209228794314242 ], "adjusted_score": [ 20.694605126616768, 29.209228794314242 ], "display_score": [ 20.5, 29.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 20.5, 29.0 ], "inputs": { "training_games": 1926, "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "unknown_teams": [], "coefficient_sha256": "bcab395d0fd1a8fbf5e6d1019df9545508857d7da1015523523bbee2bd4cacb5" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "hits": 3, "n": 4, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.30064184258240184, 0.9544127391902995 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "Retained original Primary freeze", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "replacement_scenarios": [ { "id": "USU_QB_CHANGE_CONDITIONAL", "trigger": "Confirmed established-QB unavailability/material limitation only; current depth change alone does not activate", "status": "CONDITIONAL_AVAILABILITY_ONLY_NOT_DEPTH_DISPLACEMENT", "humanDeduction": -3, "reason": "Depth chart change alone is not an availability trigger; healthy competition/rotation gets no automatic injury overlay.", "statisticalReplacementEffect": "UNESTIMATED; no validated player-stat-to-points conversion supplied", "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; no automatic opponent boost", "assumption": "Retain registered baseline as a sensitivity anchor; statistical replacement effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Third-down, turnover, possession-time facts retained from team box statistics; no repeated fixed turnover advantage.", "Current drive samples do not alter registered score means; separate drive component influence zero." ] } } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 24.916666666666664, 25.958333333333336 ], "current_matchup": [ 22.0, 19.5 ], "bounded_mismatch": 0.29166666666666646, "class_adjustments": [ 0, 0 ], "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 1.5 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap_by_team": { "away": 0.5, "home": 0.5 }, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "drive_early_down_red_zone_turnover_explosive_pressure_extra_mean_influence": 0, "cap_compliant": true }, "ranges": { "away": [ 5.75, 41.75 ], "home": [ 5.9375, 41.9375 ], "base_away": [ 5.75, 41.75 ], "base_home": [ 5.9375, 41.9375 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. 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Healthy rotation is not injury trigger; mixed-QB opportunity uncertainty remains.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "USU_QB_CHANGE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": false, "branch_gate_note": "Hypothetical future injury branch is not activated by healthy depth displacement; preserve medium mixed-role risk." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 0, "medium_risks": 1, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PENDING_FRESH_PRICE_STRESS_AND_FINAL_DESKS", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 4, "minimum_total_buffer": 5, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PENDING PRICE AND FINAL REVIEW", "minimum_side_buffer": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 4, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. Football side/total point-buffer gates evaluated separately." }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Utah State Hillstead first on depth chart, Brosterhous started last four and both played latest game. Healthy rotation is not injury trigger; mixed-QB opportunity uncertainty remains.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "USU_QB_CHANGE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": false, "branch_gate_note": "Hypothetical future injury branch is not activated by healthy depth displacement; preserve medium mixed-role risk." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [ { "team": "Utah State Aggies", "roles": { "QB": [ "McCae Hillstead first on Oct8 depth", "Grady Brosterhous current statistical leader/recent starter" ], "RB": [ "Javen Jacobs", "Noah White", "Nehemiah Washington" ], "WR": [ "Eli Wood", "Javon Robinson", "Anthony Garcia", "Demick Starling" ], "TE": [ "Collin Remenowsky", "Kauasi Hansen", "Kache Kaio" ] }, "review": "Official Oct8 depth lists Hillstead first while narrative says Brosterhous started last four; both played Boise State. This establishes mixed opportunity and possible depth displacement, not a verified injury. Default retains mixed Primary baseline; isolated availability sensitivity activates only if established QB is unavailable/materially limited.", "sources": [ "usu_notes", "usu_preview", "usu_hillstead", "usu_brosterhous", "usu_stats" ] }, { "team": "Washington State Cougars", "roles": { "QB": [ "Caden Pinnick" ], "RB": [ "Maxwell Woods", "Kirby Vorhees" ], "WR": [ "Tony Freeman", "Daniel Blood/Darrius Clemons roster candidates; targets incomplete" ], "TE": [ "Jack Pedersen" ] }, "review": "Official preview names Pinnick starter since Aug24; Woods/Vorhees each exceeded 100 yards versus Duquesne. Returning Freeman, Vorhees and tackles Ashton Tripp/Jonny Lester provide continuity; new coach Kirby Moore and 29 transfers are offseason changes, not in-season trades.", "sources": [ "wsu_preview" ] } ], "availability": { "confidence": "Moderate; Hillstead first on official depth with Brosterhous recent starts and both used last game", "productionDelta": [ 0, 0 ], "availabilityBranches": [ { "name": "Healthy QB competition/mixed roles", "delta": [ 0, 0 ] }, { "name": "Only if established QB unavailable or materially limited", "delta": [ 0, -3 ], "activated": false } ], "side": "Mixed Utah State QB usage creates allocation uncertainty; healthy depth movement is not an automatic -3. Re-score plausible opponent-offense case and generic margin stress, and require same selection across supported role branches.", "total": "Volatile passing efficiency and turnovers may move combined score independently of side; require three-point total stress with at least one remaining point. Do not repeat prior interception return as fixed scoring.", "risks": [ { "risk": "USU starting-QB role not uniquely established", "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_BOTH_ROLE_BRANCHES_SURVIVE", "resolution": "Selection must be robust to both known QBs; no unsupported numeric distinction or injury claim." } ] }, "tracking": null }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap_by_team": { "away": 0.5, "home": 0.5 }, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "drive_early_down_red_zone_turnover_explosive_pressure_extra_mean_influence": 0, "cap_compliant": true }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 5.75, 41.75 ], "home": [ 5.9375, 41.9375 ], "base_away": [ 5.75, 41.75 ], "base_home": [ 5.9375, 41.9375 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Utah State Aggies, Primary: Utah State Aggies, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Utah State Aggies, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Utah State Aggies. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "stress": { "home_side_adverse_pair": [ 26.75, 23.9375 ], "away_side_adverse_pair": [ 23.75, 26.9375 ], "over_adverse_total": 44.6875, "under_adverse_total": 50.6875, "adverse_margin_points": 3, "adverse_total_points": 3, "minimum_stressed_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_required": true, "price_evaluation": "PENDING_PARENT_POST_FREEZE", "conservative_opponent_offense": { "favorite_side": "home", "score_pair": [ 25.208333333333332, 23.9375 ], "method": "Raise opponent only to max(registered adjusted mean, prior-matchup branch plus existing mismatch/venue/overlay, current-matchup branch plus same terms). Original coefficients unchanged. 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Five intervening off days; WSU travels to Logan, Utah State returns home.", "unresolved": "Actual itinerary unverified.", "source": "https://utahstateaggies.com/news/2026/10/3/utah-state-football-drops-pac-12-opener-at-boise-state-37-18.aspx" }, "sourceGates": [] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/SLC/109,220/forecast/hourly", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:33:37.400Z", "status": "VERIFIED_NWS_GAME_WINDOW", "periods": [ { "start": "2026-10-09T19:00:00-06:00", "temperature": 75, "wind": "8 mph", "precip": 8, "forecast": "Partly Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T20:00:00-06:00", "temperature": 72, "wind": "8 mph", "precip": 8, "forecast": "Partly Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T21:00:00-06:00", "temperature": 68, "wind": "9 mph", "precip": 12, "forecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T22:00:00-06:00", "temperature": 67, "wind": "9 mph", "precip": 12, "forecast": "Mostly Cloudy" } ], "numericAdjustment": "None; official observations inform uncertainty only" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Utah State Aggies, Primary: Utah State Aggies, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Utah State Aggies, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Utah State Aggies. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Utah State Hillstead first on depth chart, Brosterhous started last four and both played latest game. Healthy rotation is not injury trigger; mixed-QB opportunity uncertainty remains.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "USU_QB_CHANGE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": true, "branch_currently_activated": false, "branch_gate_note": "Hypothetical future injury branch is not activated by healthy depth displacement; preserve medium mixed-role risk." }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 0, "medium_risks": 1, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PENDING_FRESH_PRICE_STRESS_AND_FINAL_DESKS", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Utah State Aggies, Primary: Utah State Aggies, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Utah State Aggies, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Utah State Aggies. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/SLC/109,220/forecast/hourly", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856781", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856801", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856804", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858437", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858446", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860880", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860890", 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No verified covered-role absence in reviewed preview, but preview is not a final availability report. Official Oct5 depth/complete cumulative resolves TE role; five observed targets over two games is limited receiving use, not a new primary receiver absence.", "sources": [ "sjsu_preview" ] }, { "team": "Wyoming Cowboys", "roles": { "QB": [ "Tyler Hughes", "Mason Drube OR Landon Sims" ], "RB": [ "Samuel Harris", "Markell Holman" ], "WR": [ "Charlie Coenen", "Jackson Holman", "Eric Richardson" ], "TE": [ "Jake Wilson", "Kyle Frendt" ] }, "review": "Official SJSU-week depth and current statistics resolve core roles. Jake Wilson is leading receiving TE (12/158); explicitly included. No qualifying absence identified in these current notes.", "sources": [ "wyoming_notes", "wyoming_preview" ] } ], "availability": { "confidence": "Moderate-high for current official depth roles; final availability not yet released", "productionDelta": [ 0, 0 ], "availabilityBranches": [ { "name": "Current official core: Hughes/Weaver with Harris/Holman and Bates", "delta": [ 0, 0 ] } ], "side": "Wyoming ground-game success against SJSU and SJSU Bates workload/finishing are opposite-side invalidation paths. No verified covered-role absence; require ordinary three-point margin and stronger opponent-offense tests.", "total": "Bates-heavy rushing can reduce possessions while explosive gains or turnovers can lift total. Grade separately with three-point adverse total swing and one-point remainder.", "risks": [ { "risk": "Current previews and depth charts are not final inactive lists", "severity": "LOW_IN_ABSENCE_OF_SPECIFIC_MATERIAL_NEWS", "resolution": "No identified current material status uncertainty; do not automatically fail both markets merely because final list has not posted." } ] }, "tracking": null }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap_by_team": { "away": 0.5, "home": 0.5 }, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "drive_early_down_red_zone_turnover_explosive_pressure_extra_mean_influence": 0, "cap_compliant": true }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 4.043333333333333, 40.04333333333334 ], "home": [ 5.010833333333338, 41.01083333333334 ], "base_away": [ 4.043333333333333, 40.04333333333334 ], "base_home": [ 5.010833333333338, 41.01083333333334 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans, Primary: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans, Tighten Up Conservative ON: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "stress": { "home_side_adverse_pair": [ 25.043333333333333, 23.010833333333338 ], "away_side_adverse_pair": [ 22.043333333333333, 26.010833333333338 ], "over_adverse_total": 42.054166666666674, "under_adverse_total": 48.054166666666674, "adverse_margin_points": 3, "adverse_total_points": 3, "minimum_stressed_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_required": true, "price_evaluation": "PENDING_PARENT_POST_FREEZE", "conservative_opponent_offense": { "favorite_side": "home", "score_pair": [ 24.368333333333332, 23.010833333333338 ], "method": "Raise opponent only to max(registered adjusted mean, prior-matchup branch plus existing mismatch/venue/overlay, current-matchup branch plus same terms). Original coefficients unchanged. Qualitative stress, no probability claim.", "favorite_still_wins": false }, "conditional_availability_pairs": [] } }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Regular season", "venue": "CEFCU Stadium", "startUtc": "2026-10-10T01:00Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "sjsu_preview.json", "url": "https://sjsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/5/spartans-host-wyoming-on-homecoming-presented-by-rotten-robbie", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:33:45.086Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": null, "restTravel": "See official schedule and prior notes; actual itinerary unknown", "sourceGates": [] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/MTR/100,81/forecast/hourly", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:33:37.809Z", "status": "VERIFIED_NWS_GAME_WINDOW", "periods": [ { "start": "2026-10-09T18:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 78, "wind": "6 mph", "precip": 1, "forecast": "Clear" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T19:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 72, "wind": "5 mph", "precip": 1, "forecast": "Clear" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T20:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 69, "wind": "5 mph", "precip": 1, "forecast": "Clear" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T21:00:00-07:00", "temperature": 66, "wind": "7 mph", "precip": 1, "forecast": "Clear" } ], "numericAdjustment": "None; official observations inform uncertainty only" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans, Primary: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans, Tighten Up Conservative ON: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 0, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PENDING_FRESH_PRICE_STRESS_AND_FINAL_DESKS", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans, Primary: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans, Tighten Up Conservative ON: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: San Jos\u00e9 State Spartans. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/MTR/100,81/forecast/hourly", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860878", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401860888", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864494", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864495", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864504", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864506", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864508", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864510", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864513", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401864515", "https://sjsuspartans.com/news/2026/10/5/spartans-host-wyoming-on-homecoming-presented-by-rotten-robbie" ] }, { "id": "401856826", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401856826", "date": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "3801", "fullName": "LaVell Edwards Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Provo", "state": "UT", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "66", "away_name": "Iowa State Cyclones", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "252", "home_name": "BYU Cougars", "home_score": 0.0 }, "date": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "official_date": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "matchup": "Iowa State Cyclones at BYU Cougars", "elapsed": false, "models": { "Classic": { "id": "classic-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 22.913636363636364, 28.095104895104893 ], "adjusted_score": [ 22.913636363636364, 25.095104895104893 ], "display_score": [ 23.0, 28.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 23.0, 25.0 ], "inputs": { "season": 2026, "prior_season": 2025, "k": 6, "league_regular_games": 1344, "league_points_per_team": 26.592261904761905, "latest_eligible_regular_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "venue_per_team": 0.75, "away": { "team": "66", "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 27.416666666666668, 20.166666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 33.6, 21.2 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 30.227272727272727, 20.636363636363633 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401756846", "401756853", "401752822", "401756890", "401756904", "401756912", "401756918", "401756931", "401756939", "401756944", "401756958", "401756966" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401856779", "401856788", "401856798", "401856816", "401856822" ] }, "home": { "team": "252", "prior_games": 13, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.4, "prior_rates": [ 31.923076923076923, 19 ], "current_rates": [ 37.25, 14.25 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 34.05384615384615, 17.1 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401756851", "401754526", "401756898", "401756903", "401756909", "401756916", "401756924", "401756931", "401756945", "401756950", "401756955", "401756963", "401777327" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401856775", "401856810", "401856795", "401856818" ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "hits": 2, "n": 4, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.767Z", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "replacement_scenarios": [ { "id": "BYU_MARTIN_ISOLATED", "trigger": "Martin established starter OUT", "status": "APPLICABLE_HUMAN_ONLY", "engineId": "classic-2.0.0", "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "baseForecast": 28.095104895104893, "baseAttachment": "classic-candidates.json", "statisticalReplacementDelta": null, "statisticalReplacementEffect": "UNESTIMATED; no validated player-stat-to-points conversion supplied", "statisticalReplacementForecast": null, "retainedBaselineSensitivity": true, "humanDeduction": -3, "additionalAdjustments": 0, "additionalAdjustmentsMeaning": "None estimated; does not assert that true effects are zero", "adjustedFormula": "P - 3", "formulaScope": "P is the parent registered team forecast retained for a labeled human-only sensitivity; do not label this a calibrated replacement forecast", "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; no automatic opponent boost", "reason": "User availability overlay applied once for lost lead-back role.", "decision": "Scenario score ready; parent applies normal gates and adverse-case test.", "baseScorePair": [ 22.913636363636364, 28.095104895104893 ], "assumption": "Retain registered baseline as a sensitivity anchor; statistical replacement effect remains unestimated, not zero. User human adjustment is separately identified.", "baseDecision": "PASS / uncalibrated probability", "humanOnlyAdjusted": 25.095104895104893, "adjustedScorePair": [ 22.913636363636364, 25.095104895104893 ], "adjustedTotal": 48.00874125874125, "adjustedOwnMargin": 2.1814685314685285, "totalChange": -3, "ownMarginChange": -3, "adjustedDecision": "PASS / unchanged; no opposite-side promotion", "displayAdjustedScore": [ 23, 25 ] }, { "id": "BYU_MOA_ISOLATED", "trigger": "Moa OUT and hypothetically established material healthy-reference role", "status": "CONDITIONAL_SENSITIVITY_ONLY", "engineId": "classic-2.0.0", "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "baseForecast": 28.095104895104893, "baseAttachment": "classic-candidates.json", "statisticalReplacementDelta": null, "statisticalReplacementEffect": "UNESTIMATED; no validated player-stat-to-points conversion supplied", "statisticalReplacementForecast": null, "retainedBaselineSensitivity": true, "humanDeduction": -3, "additionalAdjustments": 0, "additionalAdjustmentsMeaning": "None estimated; does not assert that true effects are zero", "adjustedFormula": "P - 3", "formulaScope": "P is the parent registered team forecast retained for a labeled human-only sensitivity; do not label this a calibrated replacement forecast", "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; no automatic opponent boost", "reason": "Current evidence does not establish incremental material role: 6 current carries, 18 in 2025, absent three reference games. 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User human adjustment is separately identified.", "baseDecision": "PASS / uncalibrated probability", "humanOnlyAdjusted": 25.095104895104893, "adjustedScorePair": [ 22.913636363636364, 25.095104895104893 ], "adjustedTotal": 48.00874125874125, "adjustedOwnMargin": 2.1814685314685285, "totalChange": -3, "ownMarginChange": -3, "adjustedDecision": "PASS / unchanged; no opposite-side promotion", "displayAdjustedScore": [ 23, 25 ] }, { "id": "BYU_JOINT", "trigger": "Martin and Moa OUT", "status": "REFERENCE_AWARE_PRODUCTION_ASSUMPTION", "engineId": "classic-2.0.0", "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "baseForecast": 28.095104895104893, "baseAttachment": "classic-candidates.json", "statisticalReplacementDelta": null, "statisticalReplacementEffect": "UNESTIMATED; no validated player-stat-to-points conversion supplied", "statisticalReplacementForecast": null, "retainedBaselineSensitivity": true, "humanDeduction": -3, "additionalAdjustments": 0, "additionalAdjustmentsMeaning": "None estimated; does not assert that true effects are zero", "adjustedFormula": "P - 3", "formulaScope": "P is the parent registered team forecast retained for a labeled human-only sensitivity; do not label this a calibrated replacement forecast", "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; no automatic opponent boost", "reason": "One independently established material disruption is Martin. Moa absence and replacement carries already dominate the reference. Joint -3 is a stated exposure/role assumption, not an arbitrary cap. A further deduction requires evidence of a separate material incremental Moa role. Both use same committee touches; blind -6 double-counts overlap.", "decision": "Scenario score ready; parent applies normal gates and adverse-case test.", "baseScorePair": [ 22.913636363636364, 28.095104895104893 ], "assumption": "Retain registered baseline as a sensitivity anchor; statistical replacement effect remains unestimated, not zero. User human adjustment is separately identified.", "baseDecision": "PASS / uncalibrated probability", "humanOnlyAdjusted": 25.095104895104893, "adjustedScorePair": [ 22.913636363636364, 25.095104895104893 ], "adjustedTotal": 48.00874125874125, "adjustedOwnMargin": 2.1814685314685285, "totalChange": -3, "ownMarginChange": -3, "adjustedDecision": "PASS / unchanged; no opposite-side promotion", "displayAdjustedScore": [ 23, 25 ] } ], "projected_winner": "BYU Cougars" }, "Primary": { "id": "primary-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 18.62707194454634, 33.10079185559791 ], "adjusted_score": [ 18.62707194454634, 30.10079185559791 ], "display_score": [ 18.5, 33.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 18.5, 30.0 ], "inputs": { "training_games": 1926, "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "unknown_teams": [], "coefficient_sha256": "bcab395d0fd1a8fbf5e6d1019df9545508857d7da1015523523bbee2bd4cacb5" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "hits": 3, "n": 4, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.30064184258240184, 0.9544127391902995 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "Retained original Primary freeze", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "replacement_scenarios": [ { "id": "BYU_MARTIN_ISOLATED", "trigger": "Martin established starter OUT", "status": "APPLICABLE_HUMAN_ONLY", "humanDeduction": -3, "reason": "User availability overlay applied once for lost lead-back role.", "statisticalReplacementEffect": "UNESTIMATED; no validated player-stat-to-points conversion supplied", "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; no automatic opponent boost", "assumption": "Retain registered baseline as a sensitivity anchor; statistical replacement effect remains unestimated, not zero. User human adjustment is separately identified.", "side": "home", "team": "BYU Cougars", "overlay_id": "football-replacement-human-v1", "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "score_pair": [ 18.62707194454634, 30.10079185559791 ], "production_plus_conditional_pair": [ 18.62707194454634, 30.10079185559791 ], "engine_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.62707194454634, 33.10079185559791 ] }, { "id": "BYU_MOA_ISOLATED", "trigger": "Moa OUT and hypothetically established material healthy-reference role", "status": "CONDITIONAL_SENSITIVITY_ONLY", "humanDeduction": -3, "reason": "Current evidence does not establish incremental material role: 6 current carries, 18 in 2025, absent three reference games. Keep separate healthy-reference sensitivity; do not claim an automatic production trigger.", "statisticalReplacementEffect": "UNESTIMATED; no validated player-stat-to-points conversion supplied", "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; no automatic opponent boost", "assumption": "Retain registered baseline as a sensitivity anchor; statistical replacement effect remains unestimated, not zero. 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Both use same committee touches; blind -6 double-counts overlap.", "statisticalReplacementEffect": "UNESTIMATED; no validated player-stat-to-points conversion supplied", "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; no automatic opponent boost", "assumption": "Retain registered baseline as a sensitivity anchor; statistical replacement effect remains unestimated, not zero. User human adjustment is separately identified.", "side": "home", "team": "BYU Cougars", "overlay_id": "football-replacement-human-v1", "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "score_pair": [ 18.62707194454634, 30.10079185559791 ], "production_plus_conditional_pair": [ 18.62707194454634, 30.10079185559791 ], "engine_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 18.62707194454634, 33.10079185559791 ] } ], "projected_winner": "BYU Cougars" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "id": "tighten-up-ncaaf-mismatch-v1", "unrounded_score": [ 21.939358974358978, 30.76224358974359 ], "adjusted_score": [ 21.939358974358978, 27.76224358974359 ], "display_score": [ 22.0, 31.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 22.0, 28.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 27.416666666666668, "pa": 20.166666666666668, "margin": 7.25, "event_ids": [ "401756846", "401756853", "401752822", "401756890", "401756904", "401756912", "401756918", "401756931", "401756939", "401756944", "401756958", 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Third-down, turnover, possession-time facts retained from team box statistics; no repeated fixed turnover advantage.", "Current drive samples do not alter registered score means; separate drive component influence zero." ] } } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 23.208333333333336, 26.044871794871796 ], "current_matchup": [ 23.925, 29.225 ], "bounded_mismatch": -1.627307692307692, "class_adjustments": [ 0, 0 ], "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 1.5 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap_by_team": { "away": 0.5, "home": 0.5 }, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 4 }, "drive_early_down_red_zone_turnover_explosive_pressure_extra_mean_influence": 0, "cap_compliant": true }, "ranges": { "away": [ 3.939358974358978, 39.93935897435898 ], "home": [ 9.76224358974359, 45.76224358974359 ], "base_away": [ 3.939358974358978, 39.93935897435898 ], "base_home": [ 12.76224358974359, 48.76224358974359 ], "team_allowance": 18, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. 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Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 0, "medium_risks": 1, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PENDING_FRESH_PRICE_STRESS_AND_FINAL_DESKS", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 4, "minimum_total_buffer": 5, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PENDING PRICE AND FINAL REVIEW", "minimum_side_buffer": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 4, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. 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Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [ { "team": "BYU Cougars", "roles": { "QB": [ "Bear Bachmeier" ], "RB": [ "LJ Martin OUT", "Sione Moa OUT", "Preston Rex", "Journee Tonga", "Devaughn Eka" ], "WR": [ "Kyler Kasper", "Legend Glasker", "Jojo Phillips" ], "TE": [ "Walker Lyons OR Roger Saleapaga II", "Keayen Nead", "Noah Moeaki" ] }, "review": "Official depth chart places Rex first, Tonga second and Eka third. Martin is established starter; Moa is a low-volume back with only six current carries. No covered QB/WR/TE absence in captured conference report. Published depth order is not a guaranteed workload allocation.", "sources": [ "BYU official notes", "BYU comparison", "Big12 report", "byu_offense", "byu_preview" ] }, { "team": "Iowa State Cyclones", "roles": { "QB": [ "Jaylen Raynor", "Connor Moberly", "Zane Flores" ], "RB": [ "Aiden Flora", "Cameron Pettaway" ], "WR": [ "Dominic Overby", "Omari Hayes", "Cody Jackson OR Jamal Polite Jr." ], "TE": [ "Vince Benetti: 5GP,6rec/62yd/3TD", "Tyler Fortenberry:5GP,2rec/10yd", "AJ Petersen F/TE; Rylan Barnes reserve OUT" ] }, "review": "Rylan Barnes identity resolved by official 2026 roster: current TE/F, formerly LB in 2024/2025. Current 4GP/0GS and no receptions in complete team receiving table. Prior four starts were 2024 linebacker starts, not receiving TE starts. 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Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: BYU Cougars, Primary: BYU Cougars, Tighten Up Conservative ON: BYU Cougars, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: BYU Cougars. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "stress": { "home_side_adverse_pair": [ 24.939358974358978, 27.76224358974359 ], "away_side_adverse_pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 30.76224358974359 ], "over_adverse_total": 46.70160256410257, "under_adverse_total": 52.70160256410257, "adverse_margin_points": 3, "adverse_total_points": 3, "minimum_stressed_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_required": true, "price_evaluation": "PENDING_PARENT_POST_FREEZE", "conservative_opponent_offense": { "favorite_side": "home", "score_pair": [ 22.29769230769231, 27.76224358974359 ], "method": "Raise opponent only to max(registered adjusted mean, prior-matchup branch plus existing mismatch/venue/overlay, current-matchup branch plus same terms). Original coefficients unchanged. Qualitative stress, no probability claim.", "favorite_still_wins": true }, "conditional_availability_pairs": [ { "id": "BYU_MARTIN_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 27.76224358974359 ] }, { "id": "BYU_MOA_ISOLATED", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 27.76224358974359 ] }, { "id": "BYU_JOINT", "pair": [ 21.939358974358978, 27.76224358974359 ] } ] } }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Regular season", "venue": "LaVell Edwards Stadium", "startUtc": "2026-10-10T02:15Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "byu_preview.json", "url": "https://byucougars.com/news/2026/10/5/byu-football-game-week-2026-iowa-state", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:33:45.07Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": null, "restTravel": "See official schedule and prior notes; actual itinerary unknown", "sourceGates": [] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/SLC/106,152/forecast/hourly", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:33:37.676Z", "status": "VERIFIED_NWS_GAME_WINDOW", "periods": [ { "start": "2026-10-09T20:00:00-06:00", "temperature": 76, "wind": "7 mph", "precip": 7, "forecast": "Partly Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T21:00:00-06:00", "temperature": 72, "wind": "12 mph", "precip": 10, "forecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T22:00:00-06:00", "temperature": 71, "wind": "12 mph", "precip": 10, "forecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T23:00:00-06:00", "temperature": 71, "wind": "12 mph", "precip": 10, "forecast": "Mostly Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-10T00:00:00-06:00", "temperature": 70, "wind": "12 mph", "precip": 12, "forecast": "Mostly Cloudy" } ], "numericAdjustment": "None; official observations inform uncertainty only" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: BYU Cougars, Primary: BYU Cougars, Tighten Up Conservative ON: BYU Cougars, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: BYU Cougars. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "BYU lead back Martin OUT; -3 human-only overlay applied with Moa overlap review. Statistical replacement effect and listed defensive absences unestimated.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "BYU_JOINT", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 0, "medium_risks": 1, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PENDING_FRESH_PRICE_STRESS_AND_FINAL_DESKS", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: BYU Cougars, Primary: BYU Cougars, Tighten Up Conservative ON: BYU Cougars, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: BYU Cougars. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/SLC/106,152/forecast/hourly", "https://byucougars.com/news/2026/10/5/byu-football-game-week-2026-iowa-state", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000&groups=80", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856775", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856779", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856788", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856795", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856798", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856810", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856816", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856818", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401856822" ] }, { "id": "401868329", "sport": "NCAAF", "identity": { "id": "401868329", "date": "2026-10-09T16:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "NCAAF", "venue": { "id": "4582", "fullName": "ASU Football Stadium", "indoor": false, "address": { "city": "Montgomery", "state": "AL", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "50", "away_name": "Florida A&M Rattlers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "2011", "home_name": "Alabama State Hornets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "date": "2026-10-09T16:00Z", "official_date": "2026-10-09T16:05:00Z", "matchup": "Florida A&M Rattlers at Alabama State Hornets", "elapsed": false, "models": { "Classic": { "id": "classic-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 19.386363636363633, 35.90909090909091 ], "adjusted_score": [ 19.386363636363633, 35.90909090909091 ], "display_score": [ 19.5, 36.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 19.5, 36.0 ], "inputs": { "season": 2026, "prior_season": 2025, "k": 6, "league_regular_games": 1344, "league_points_per_team": 26.592261904761905, "latest_eligible_regular_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "venue_per_team": 0.75, "away": { "team": "50", "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 24.25, 33.833333333333336 ], "current_rates": [ 17.4, 36.8 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 21.136363636363633, 35.18181818181818 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401767350", "401762460", "401769832", "401767361", "401767413", "401767373", "401767456", "401767423", "401767386", "401767357", "401767394", "401767428" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401868948", "401867939", "401858213", "401868196", "401868299" ] }, "home": { "team": "2011", "prior_games": 12, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.45454545454545453, "prior_rates": [ 42.416666666666664, 21.416666666666668 ], "current_rates": [ 26.4, 16.4 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 35.13636363636363, 19.136363636363633 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401762430", "401767359", "401767360", "401767361", "401767362", "401767363", "401767314", "401767364", "401767365", "401767366", "401767367", "401767368" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401868324", "401868325", "401868326", "401868327", "401868328" ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "hits": 2, "n": 4, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.15003898915214947, 0.8499610108478506 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.767Z", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "replacement_scenarios": [ { "id": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "trigger": "Body unavailable/materially limited with Frye replacement", "status": "CONDITIONAL_TRIGGER", "engineId": "classic-2.0.0", "overlayVersion": "football-replacement-human-v1", "baseForecast": 35.90909090909091, "baseAttachment": "classic-candidates.json", "statisticalReplacementDelta": null, "statisticalReplacementEffect": "UNESTIMATED; no validated player-stat-to-points conversion supplied", "statisticalReplacementForecast": null, "retainedBaselineSensitivity": true, "humanDeduction": -3, "additionalAdjustments": 0, "additionalAdjustmentsMeaning": "None estimated; does not assert that true effects are zero", "adjustedFormula": "P - 3", "formulaScope": "P is the parent registered team forecast retained for a labeled human-only sensitivity; do not label this a calibrated replacement forecast", "opponentPointAdjustment": 0, "opponentAdjustmentReason": "No independent turnover/field-position/tempo conversion; no automatic opponent boost", "reason": "Real role change verified, availability cause not. Mixed five-game baseline already has two Frye starts. No unsupported player-points coefficient.", "decision": "Only conditional adverse branch; parent must test normal gates against this score.", "baseScorePair": [ 19.386363636363633, 35.90909090909091 ], "assumption": "Retain registered baseline as a sensitivity anchor; statistical replacement effect remains unestimated, not zero. User human adjustment is separately identified.", "baseDecision": "PASS / uncalibrated probability", "humanOnlyAdjusted": 32.90909090909091, "adjustedScorePair": [ 19.386363636363633, 32.90909090909091 ], "adjustedTotal": 52.29545454545454, "adjustedOwnMargin": 13.522727272727273, "totalChange": -3, "ownMarginChange": -3, "adjustedDecision": "PASS / unchanged; no opposite-side promotion", "displayAdjustedScore": [ 19.5, 33 ] } ], "projected_winner": "Alabama State Hornets" }, "Primary": { "id": "primary-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 14.328307722676279, 39.417988798790084 ], "adjusted_score": [ 14.328307722676279, 39.417988798790084 ], "display_score": [ 14.5, 39.5 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 14.5, 39.5 ], "inputs": { "training_games": 1926, "latest_game": "2026-10-08T23:30Z", "unknown_teams": [], "coefficient_sha256": "bcab395d0fd1a8fbf5e6d1019df9545508857d7da1015523523bbee2bd4cacb5" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NCAAF", "season_type": 2, "hits": 3, "n": 4, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.30064184258240184, 0.9544127391902995 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "Retained original Primary freeze", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "football-replacement-human-v1", "replacement_scenarios": [ { "id": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "trigger": "Body unavailable/materially limited with Frye replacement", "status": "CONDITIONAL_TRIGGER", "humanDeduction": -3, "reason": "Real role change verified, availability cause not. 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User human adjustment is separately identified.", "side": "home", "team": "Alabama State Hornets", "overlay_id": "football-replacement-human-v1", "statistical_replacement_effect": null, "score_pair": [ 14.328307722676279, 36.41798879879009 ], "production_plus_conditional_pair": [ 14.328307722676279, 36.41798879879009 ], "engine_id": "primary-2.0.0", "base_score": [ 14.328307722676279, 39.417988798790084 ] } ], "projected_winner": "Alabama State Hornets" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "id": "tighten-up-ncaaf-mismatch-v1", "unrounded_score": [ 13.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ], "adjusted_score": [ 13.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ], "display_score": [ 14.0, 42.5 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 14.0, 42.5 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "2025": { "games": 12, "pf": 24.25, "pa": 33.833333333333336, "margin": -9.583333333333336, "event_ids": [ "401767350", "401762460", "401769832", "401767361", "401767413", "401767373", "401767456", "401767423", "401767386", 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"completionAttempts", "displayValue": "12/18", "value": "-" }, { "name": "yardsPerPass", "displayValue": "7.2", "value": 7.222 }, { "name": "rushingYards", "displayValue": "110", "value": 110.0 }, { "name": "rushingAttempts", "displayValue": "43", "value": 43.0 }, { "name": "yardsPerRushAttempt", "displayValue": "2.6", "value": 2.558 }, { "name": "totalPenaltiesYards", "displayValue": "10-91", "value": "-" }, { "name": "turnovers", "displayValue": "4", "value": "-" }, { "name": "fumblesLost", "displayValue": "4", "value": 4.0 }, { "name": "interceptions", "displayValue": "0", "value": 0.0 }, { "name": "possessionTime", "displayValue": "34:19", "value": 2059 } ] }, { "id": "2011", "statistics": [ { "name": "firstDowns", "displayValue": "11", "value": 11.0 }, { "name": "thirdDownEff", "displayValue": "1-10", "value": 0.1 }, { "name": "fourthDownEff", "displayValue": "0-1", "value": 0 }, { "name": "totalYards", "displayValue": "258", "value": "-" }, { "name": "netPassingYards", "displayValue": "137", "value": 137.0 }, { "name": "completionAttempts", "displayValue": "10/21", "value": "-" }, { "name": "yardsPerPass", "displayValue": "6.5", "value": 6.524 }, { "name": "rushingYards", "displayValue": "121", "value": 121.0 }, { "name": "rushingAttempts", "displayValue": "33", "value": 33.0 }, { "name": "yardsPerRushAttempt", "displayValue": "3.7", "value": 3.667 }, { "name": "totalPenaltiesYards", "displayValue": "6-61", "value": "-" }, { "name": "turnovers", "displayValue": "2", "value": "-" }, { "name": "fumblesLost", "displayValue": "1", "value": 1.0 }, { "name": "interceptions", "displayValue": "1", "value": 1.0 }, { "name": "possessionTime", "displayValue": "25:41", "value": 1541 } ] } ] }, { "event_id": "401868328", "url": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868328", "teams": [ { "id": "2011", "statistics": [ { "name": "firstDowns", "displayValue": "19", "value": 19.0 }, { "name": "thirdDownEff", "displayValue": "3-10", "value": 0.3 }, { "name": "fourthDownEff", "displayValue": "0-1", "value": 0 }, { "name": "totalYards", "displayValue": "255", "value": "-" }, { "name": "netPassingYards", "displayValue": "93", "value": 93.0 }, { "name": "completionAttempts", "displayValue": "12/20", "value": "-" }, { "name": "yardsPerPass", "displayValue": "4.7", "value": 4.65 }, { "name": "rushingYards", "displayValue": "162", "value": 162.0 }, { "name": "rushingAttempts", "displayValue": "34", "value": 34.0 }, { "name": "yardsPerRushAttempt", "displayValue": "4.8", "value": 4.765 }, { "name": "totalPenaltiesYards", "displayValue": "4-35", "value": "-" }, { "name": "turnovers", "displayValue": "1", "value": "-" }, { "name": "fumblesLost", "displayValue": "1", "value": 1.0 }, { "name": "interceptions", "displayValue": "0", "value": 0.0 }, { "name": "possessionTime", "displayValue": "26:22", "value": 1582 } ] }, { "id": "2065", "statistics": [ { "name": "firstDowns", "displayValue": "19", "value": 19.0 }, { "name": "thirdDownEff", "displayValue": "6-14", "value": 0.4285714286 }, { "name": "fourthDownEff", "displayValue": "1-1", "value": 1 }, { "name": "totalYards", "displayValue": "388", "value": "-" }, { "name": "netPassingYards", "displayValue": "51", "value": 51.0 }, { "name": "completionAttempts", "displayValue": "5/12", "value": "-" }, { "name": "yardsPerPass", "displayValue": "4.3", "value": 4.25 }, { "name": "rushingYards", "displayValue": "337", "value": 337.0 }, { "name": "rushingAttempts", "displayValue": "54", "value": 54.0 }, { "name": "yardsPerRushAttempt", "displayValue": "6.2", "value": 6.241 }, { "name": "totalPenaltiesYards", "displayValue": "7-80", "value": "-" }, { "name": "turnovers", "displayValue": "1", "value": "-" }, { "name": "fumblesLost", "displayValue": "0", "value": 0.0 }, { "name": "interceptions", "displayValue": "1", "value": 1.0 }, { "name": "possessionTime", "displayValue": "33:38", "value": 2018 } ] } ] } ], "excluded": [ { "event_id": "401868327", "drive_id": "40186832723", "reason": "unknown team or zero offensive plays" }, { "event_id": "401868328", "drive_id": "40186832814", "reason": "unknown team or zero offensive plays" } ], "coverage_games": 5, "mean_influence": 0, "method": "Original NCAA drive-result proxies: TD=7, FG=3, safety=2; records with offensivePlays>0. Early down/explosive/sack/red-zone counters faithfully port original source. Descriptive evidence only, no added mean coefficient.", "limitations": [ "TD proxy assumes seven points and safety may credit the possessing team; these are inherited evidence conventions, not exact offensive points.", "Inherited early-down/explosive counters use play yardage including qualifying special-team rows; not a filtered scrimmage-only efficiency metric.", "No pressure charting supplied. Third-down, turnover, possession-time facts retained from team box statistics; no repeated fixed turnover advantage.", "Current drive samples do not alter registered score means; separate drive component influence zero." ] } } } }, "terms": { "prior_matchup": [ 22.833333333333336, 38.125 ], "current_matchup": [ 16.9, 31.599999999999998 ], "bounded_mismatch": -5.998333333333334, "class_adjustments": [ 0, 0 ], "score_clip": [ 3, 70 ] }, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 1.5 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap_by_team": { "away": 0.5, "home": 0.5 }, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "drive_early_down_red_zone_turnover_explosive_pressure_extra_mean_influence": 0, "cap_compliant": true }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 33.86833333333333 ], "home": [ 22.360833333333332, 62.36083333333333 ], "base_away": [ 0, 33.86833333333333 ], "base_home": [ 22.360833333333332, 62.36083333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "stress": { "home_side_adverse_pair": [ 16.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ], "away_side_adverse_pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 45.36083333333333 ], "over_adverse_total": 53.229166666666664, "under_adverse_total": 59.229166666666664, "adverse_margin_points": 3, "adverse_total_points": 3, "minimum_stressed_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_required": true, "price_evaluation": "PENDING_PARENT_POST_FREEZE", "conservative_opponent_offense": { "favorite_side": "home", "score_pair": [ 16.835, 42.36083333333333 ], "method": "Raise opponent only to max(registered adjusted mean, prior-matchup branch plus existing mismatch/venue/overlay, current-matchup branch plus same terms). Original coefficients unchanged. Qualitative stress, no probability claim.", "favorite_still_wins": true }, "conditional_availability_pairs": [ { "id": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 39.36083333333333 ] } ] }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000&groups=81", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868948", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867939", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401858213", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868196", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868299", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868324", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868325", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868326", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868327", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868328" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\slate-NCAAF-FCS.json", "sha256": "0922eb2a895fd3988934036c363a5d625e54358e30d1d2eab296719888fd5d52" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\history-NCAAF.json", "sha256": "b59a2346f4647f475e53c99b3da9c7a0c79904a5eca589364b71d652068bf9d2" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Research\\retry-2026-10-09T11-12-08-881Z\\football-independent-review.json", "sha256": "2b65b56b6353767fe3d868dd6ac4b1232cd875d9d1278f21f41c32f7d4b5fdcb" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Alabama State Frye started last two; Body availability/reason not established. No inferred injury deduction; -3 conditional branch retained.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 0, "medium_risks": 1, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PENDING_FRESH_PRICE_STRESS_AND_FINAL_DESKS", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 4, "minimum_total_buffer": 5, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PENDING PRICE AND FINAL REVIEW", "minimum_side_buffer": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 4, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. Football side/total point-buffer gates evaluated separately." }, "risks": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Alabama State Frye started last two; Body availability/reason not established. No inferred injury deduction; -3 conditional branch retained.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Official NWS 15 mph wind with rain chance rising to 42%; unresolved weather sensitivity", "hard_gate": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [ { "team": "Alabama State Hornets", "roles": { "QB": [ "Aaron Frye recent starter", "Andrew Body prior starter" ], "RB": [ "Jamarie Hostzclaw", "Jareese Howard", "TJ Ramsey" ], "WR": [ "Randall King", "Daionte DJ Hicks", "Kareem Keye", "John Austin (official WR, not TE):5/57/1TD" ], "TE": [ "All five official roster TEs have no catches in full 60rec/655yd current table; no primary receiving TE" ] }, "review": "Opponent official Oct8 preview confirms Frye started last two games and Body first three. Change is real, but current Body availability/reason not confirmed by consulted sources. Do not call it an injury by inference.", "sources": [ "famu_preview", "alabama_stats", "alabama_body", "alst_frye", "football-role-supplement-ivy.json" ] }, { "team": "Florida A&M Rattlers", "roles": { "QB": [ "Armond Parker" ], "RB": [ "Chase Gillespie:35/115/1TD in5GP", "Jamal Hailey:44/99 in4GP" ], "WR": [ "Kieren Jackson", "Corey Petty", "Jaquan Lee", "Maliek Denmark is WR, not RB" ], "TE": [ "Xavier Herndon:4/65", "Javon Wright IV:1/1/1TD", "Tamez Young:1/1" ] }, "review": "Official preview names current core. Parker 472 pass yards/5 TD in three appearances; Jackson/Petty each 12 catches; Lee 9/151/2TD. No verified new covered-role absence. Current official cumulative confirms all three QBs contributed to mixed baseline; no verified new availability trigger. Receiving TE room reviewed, no unsupported primary-TE injury scenario.", "sources": [ "famu_preview", "famu_stats" ] } ], "availability": { "confidence": "Moderate; Frye recent role established, cause of Body change unknown", "productionDelta": [ 0, 0 ], "availabilityBranches": [ { "name": "Mixed role baseline with recent Frye starts", "delta": [ 0, 0 ] }, { "name": "If Body absence/limitation is actual cause", "delta": [ 0, -3 ], "activated": false } ], "side": "FAMU pressure/return scores and Alabama State QB branch can alter allocation. Compare baseline and conditional home -3 plus generic margin stress; opposing-offense recovery must be represented.", "total": "Montgomery forecast 15 mph east wind with rain chance rising to 42%; kicking/vertical passing and turnovers are two-sided uncertainty. No invented weather points. Combined QB and weather uncertainty needs a documented adverse case before any tier.", "risks": [ { "risk": "Alabama State QB cause and final assignment not confirmed", "severity": "HIGH_UNLESS_BOTH_BRANCHES_SURVIVE", "resolution": "Frye last two starts and Body first three verified. Do not label Body injured by inference." }, { "risk": "15 mph wind and increasing rain chance", "severity": "MEDIUM", "resolution": "Explicit weather risk remains; under is not automatically safe because turnovers/returns can add points." } ] }, "tracking": null }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap_by_team": { "away": 0.5, "home": 0.5 }, "sample_games": { "away": 5, "home": 5 }, "drive_early_down_red_zone_turnover_explosive_pressure_extra_mean_influence": 0, "cap_compliant": true }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 33.86833333333333 ], "home": [ 22.360833333333332, 62.36083333333333 ], "base_away": [ 0, 33.86833333333333 ], "base_home": [ 22.360833333333332, 62.36083333333333 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Alabama State Hornets, Primary: Alabama State Hornets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Alabama State Hornets, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Alabama State Hornets. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "stress": { "home_side_adverse_pair": [ 16.868333333333332, 42.36083333333333 ], "away_side_adverse_pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 45.36083333333333 ], "over_adverse_total": 53.229166666666664, "under_adverse_total": 59.229166666666664, "adverse_margin_points": 3, "adverse_total_points": 3, "minimum_stressed_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_required": true, "price_evaluation": "PENDING_PARENT_POST_FREEZE", "conservative_opponent_offense": { "favorite_side": "home", "score_pair": [ 16.835, 42.36083333333333 ], "method": "Raise opponent only to max(registered adjusted mean, prior-matchup branch plus existing mismatch/venue/overlay, current-matchup branch plus same terms). Original coefficients unchanged. Qualitative stress, no probability claim.", "favorite_still_wins": true }, "conditional_availability_pairs": [ { "id": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "pair": [ 13.868333333333332, 39.36083333333333 ] } ] } }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Regular season", "venue": "ASU Football Stadium", "startUtc": "2026-10-09T16:05:00Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "alabama_schedule.json", "url": "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026?grid=true", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:33:45.046Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": null, "restTravel": { "verified": "Alabama State played at Bethune-Cookman Oct 3; five intervening off days then returns home.", "unresolved": "FAMU prior date and actual itinerary not independently established.", "source": { "file": "alabama_schedule.json", "url": "https://bamastatesports.com/sports/football/schedule/2026?grid=true", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:33:45.046Z" } }, "sourceGates": [ "Official home schedule 11:05 AM Central / 12:05 PM Eastern differs from ESPN and visiting FAMU preview at 12:00 Eastern. Display discrepancy; use earlier time as lock.", "15 mph easterly wind and rising afternoon rain risk require explicit weather input." ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BMX/81,35/forecast/hourly", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:33:37.873Z", "status": "VERIFIED_NWS_GAME_WINDOW", "periods": [ { "start": "2026-10-09T11:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 75, "wind": "15 mph", "precip": 8, "forecast": "Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T12:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 75, "wind": "15 mph", "precip": 8, "forecast": "Cloudy" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T13:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 75, "wind": "15 mph", "precip": 42, "forecast": "Chance Rain Showers" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T14:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 76, "wind": "15 mph", "precip": 42, "forecast": "Chance Rain Showers" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T15:00:00-05:00", "temperature": 74, "wind": "15 mph", "precip": 42, "forecast": "Chance Rain Showers" } ], "numericAdjustment": "None; official observations inform uncertainty only" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Alabama State Hornets, Primary: Alabama State Hornets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Alabama State Hornets, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Alabama State Hornets. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Alabama State Frye started last two; Body availability/reason not established. No inferred injury deduction; -3 conditional branch retained.", "resolved": false, "conditional_branch": "ASU_BODY_FRYE_CONDITIONAL", "hard_gate": false, "branch_flips_projected_winner": false, "branch_currently_activated": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false }, { "severity": "MEDIUM", "risk": "Official NWS 15 mph wind with rain chance rising to 42%; unresolved weather sensitivity", "hard_gate": false } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [], "high_risks": 0, "medium_risks": 1, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PENDING_FRESH_PRICE_STRESS_AND_FINAL_DESKS", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Alabama State Hornets, Primary: Alabama State Hornets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Alabama State Hornets, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Alabama State Hornets. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. 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Not calibrated coverage." }, "stress": { "home_side_adverse_pair": [ 19.218333333333334, 30.49833333333333 ], "away_side_adverse_pair": [ 16.218333333333334, 33.498333333333335 ], "over_adverse_total": 43.71666666666667, "under_adverse_total": 49.71666666666667, "adverse_margin_points": 3, "adverse_total_points": 3, "minimum_stressed_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_required": true, "price_evaluation": "PENDING_PARENT_POST_FREEZE", "conservative_opponent_offense": { "favorite_side": "home", "score_pair": [ 16.71, 30.49833333333333 ], "method": "Raise opponent only to max(registered adjusted mean, prior-matchup branch plus existing mismatch/venue/overlay, current-matchup branch plus same terms). Original coefficients unchanged. Qualitative stress, no probability claim.", "favorite_still_wins": true }, "conditional_availability_pairs": [] }, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000&groups=81", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867817", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867818", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867819", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868261", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868262", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868028", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868263", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868264" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\slate-NCAAF-FCS.json", "sha256": "0922eb2a895fd3988934036c363a5d625e54358e30d1d2eab296719888fd5d52" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\history-NCAAF.json", "sha256": "b59a2346f4647f475e53c99b3da9c7a0c79904a5eca589364b71d652068bf9d2" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Research\\retry-2026-10-09T11-12-08-881Z\\football-independent-review.json", "sha256": "2b65b56b6353767fe3d868dd6ac4b1232cd875d9d1278f21f41c32f7d4b5fdcb" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Registered fixed 50% current scoring/margin influence exceeds 25% policy cap for Columbia three-game sample. Arithmetic retained as noncompliant research score; no weight change authorized.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [ "NONCOMPLIANT_CURRENT_SAMPLE_CAP" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 4, "minimum_total_buffer": 5, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": 3, "minimum_total_buffer": 4, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. Football side/total point-buffer gates evaluated separately." }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Registered fixed 50% current scoring/margin influence exceeds 25% policy cap for Columbia three-game sample. Arithmetic retained as noncompliant research score; no weight change authorized.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [ { "team": "Marist Red Foxes", "roles": { "QB": [ "Sonny Mannino" ], "RB": [ "Isaiah Simmons", "Lincoln Cardillo" ], "WR": [ "Reed Shumpert:11/187", "Jayden Taylor:13/181", "Zach Garmont:13/154/1TD" ], "TE": [ "Joey Bemis 0rec/0yd in5GP", "Richie Lang 0rec/0yd in5GP; no material receiving TE in complete table" ] }, "review": "Official previews establish Mannino and rushing role; Cardillo is a captain, not proof of lead workload. No verified covered-role absence. Complete receiving table cross-checked against official roster; no material receiving TE. Mannino84/137,972yd,6TD/2INT; Simmons50/203,Cardillo33/125.", "sources": [ "marist_preview", "columbia_preview", "football-role-supplement-ivy.json" ] }, { "team": "Columbia Lions", "roles": { "QB": [ "Chase Goodwin" ], "RB": [ "Griffin Johnson:64/308/1TD in3GP", "Michael Walters:17/73 in2GP", "Jahmir Pitcher:7/44 in3GP" ], "WR": [ "Bryce Coleman:20/270/4TD", "Hutch Crow:16/178", "Beckett Robinson:6/127", "Gavin Barth:8/86" ], "TE": [ "Braden Dougherty:10/117/1TD in3GP, material receiving role" ] }, "review": "Official preview confirms Goodwin and Coleman. Explicit identity safeguard: Kai Honda 219-yard paragraph describes Princeton production, not Columbia backfield. No verified covered-role absence. Full current cumulative resolves RB, WR and TE hierarchy; no qualifying new absence verified.", "sources": [ "columbia_preview", "football-role-supplement-ivy.json" ] } ], "availability": { "confidence": "Moderate-high for official current role hierarchy; no known new covered-role absence", "productionDelta": [ 0, 0 ], "availabilityBranches": [ { "name": "Goodwin/Johnson/Coleman/Dougherty versus Mannino/Simmons/Cardillo", "delta": [ 0, 0 ] } ], "side": "Columbia has only three current games; opponent-strength and FCS scoring allocation must be shrunk to stable baseline. Marist offensive improvement must appear in conservative opponent-offense case.", "total": "Small current sample and red-zone/turnover variance require independent three-point total stress. Calm forecast supplies no numerical bonus.", "risks": [ { "risk": "Three-game Columbia sample violates documented fixed 50 percent TU current influence versus 25 percent cap", "severity": "HIGH", "hard_gate": true, "resolution": "Retain original engine arithmetic as research-only; both TU configurations PASS. No unrequested weight edit." } ] }, "tracking": null }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_scoring_and_margin_component": 0.5, "generic_cap_by_team": { "away": 0.25, "home": 0.5 }, "sample_games": { "away": 3, "home": 5 }, "drive_early_down_red_zone_turnover_explosive_pressure_extra_mean_influence": 0, "cap_compliant": false }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 0, 36.218333333333334 ], "home": [ 10.498333333333331, 50.498333333333335 ], "base_away": [ 0, 36.218333333333334 ], "base_home": [ 10.498333333333331, 50.498333333333335 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [ "NONCOMPLIANT_CURRENT_SAMPLE_CAP" ] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Marist Red Foxes, Primary: Marist Red Foxes, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Marist Red Foxes, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Marist Red Foxes. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "stress": { "home_side_adverse_pair": [ 19.218333333333334, 30.49833333333333 ], "away_side_adverse_pair": [ 16.218333333333334, 33.498333333333335 ], "over_adverse_total": 43.71666666666667, "under_adverse_total": 49.71666666666667, "adverse_margin_points": 3, "adverse_total_points": 3, "minimum_stressed_total_buffer": 1, "same_side_required": true, "price_evaluation": "PENDING_PARENT_POST_FREEZE", "conservative_opponent_offense": { "favorite_side": "home", "score_pair": [ 16.71, 30.49833333333333 ], "method": "Raise opponent only to max(registered adjusted mean, prior-matchup branch plus existing mismatch/venue/overlay, current-matchup branch plus same terms). Original coefficients unchanged. Qualitative stress, no probability claim.", "favorite_still_wins": true }, "conditional_availability_pairs": [] } }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Regular season", "venue": "Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field", "startUtc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "columbia_preview.json", "url": "https://gocolumbialions.com/news/2026/10/7/football-wraps-up-non-conference-play-friday-night-at-marist", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:34:25.93Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": null, "restTravel": { "verified": "Columbia hosted Princeton Oct 3; five intervening off days. Regional road trip to Poughkeepsie.", "unresolved": "Marist prior date and actual itinerary not independently established.", "source": { "file": "columbia_preview.json", "url": "https://gocolumbialions.com/news/2026/10/7/football-wraps-up-non-conference-play-friday-night-at-marist", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:34:25.93Z" } }, "sourceGates": [] }, "Polly Ticks": { "source": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/ALY/73,20/forecast/hourly", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:33:37.538Z", "status": "VERIFIED_NWS_GAME_WINDOW", "periods": [ { "start": "2026-10-09T19:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 59, "wind": "3 mph", "precip": 0, "forecast": "Clear" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T20:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 55, "wind": "2 mph", "precip": 0, "forecast": "Mostly Clear" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T21:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 52, "wind": "1 mph", "precip": 0, "forecast": "Mostly Clear" }, { "start": "2026-10-09T22:00:00-04:00", "temperature": 51, "wind": "1 mph", "precip": 0, "forecast": "Mostly Clear" } ], "numericAdjustment": "None; official observations inform uncertainty only" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Marist Red Foxes, Primary: Marist Red Foxes, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Marist Red Foxes, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Marist Red Foxes. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Registered fixed 50% current scoring/margin influence exceeds 25% policy cap for Columbia three-game sample. Arithmetic retained as noncompliant research score; no weight change authorized.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true }, { "severity": "LOW", "risk": "Final-score model does not control opponent strength beyond inherited bounded team-margin correction; actual drive evidence retained separately. Normal turnover/finishing variability inside descriptive range.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": false } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [ "NONCOMPLIANT_CURRENT_SAMPLE_CAP" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": 4, "on_total_buffer": 5, "off_side_buffer": 3, "off_total_buffer": 4, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Marist Red Foxes, Primary: Marist Red Foxes, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Marist Red Foxes, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Marist Red Foxes. Apply production overlay and all relevant availability branches, then independent three-point stress. Conservative opponent-offense case is an additional check. Market-specific risk resolution must be recorded; no automatic pick from a mean gap.", "sources": [ "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/ALY/73,20/forecast/hourly", "https://gocolumbialions.com/news/2026/10/7/football-wraps-up-non-conference-play-friday-night-at-marist", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000&groups=81", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867817", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867818", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401867819", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868028", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868261", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868262", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868263", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/college-football/summary?event=401868264" ] }, { "id": "401898395", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401898395", "date": "2026-10-09T12:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": true, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "4018", "fullName": "Venetian Arena", "indoor": true, "address": null }, "away": "10", "away_name": "Houston Rockets", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "6", "home_name": "Dallas Mavericks", "home_score": 0.0 }, "date": "2026-10-09T12:00Z", "official_date": "2026-10-09T12:00Z", "matchup": "Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks", "elapsed": true, "models": { "Classic": { "id": "classic-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 117.4329268292683, 112.0670731707317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.4329268292683, 112.0670731707317 ], "display_score": [ 117.5, 112.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 117.5, 112.0 ], "inputs": { "season": 2027, "prior_season": 2026, "k": 20, "league_regular_games": 1235, "league_points_per_team": 115.36315789473684, "latest_eligible_regular_game": "2026-04-13T00:30Z", "venue_per_team": 0, "away": { "team": "10", "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 115.23170731707317, 110.01219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 115.23170731707317, 110.01219512195122 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": true, "prior_event_ids": [ "401809243", "401809947", "401809971", "401809986", "401810001", "401810015", "401810031", "401809774", "401810046", "401810073", "401809784", "401810091", "401810110", "401809796", "401810145", "401809808", "401810156", "401810171", "401810185", "401810201", "401810211", "401836746", "401836806", "401810230", "401810241", "401810256", "401810277", "401809241", "401810293", "401810308", "401810326", "401810346", "401810360", "401810382", "401810395", "401810412", "401810420", "401810436", "401810446", "401810459", "401810470", "401810483", "401810490", "401810517", "401810534", "401810537", "401810556", "401810568", "401810583", "401810592", "401810603", "401810627", "401810637", "401810647", "401810671", "401810685", "401810700", "401810707", "401810719", "401810734", "401810757", "401810765", "401810782", "401810795", "401810805", "401810819", "401810844", "401810862", "401810873", "401810882", "401810897", "401810913", "401810924", "401810943", "401810957", "401810965", "401810979", "401810997", "401811012", "401811024", "401811033", "401811049" ], "current_event_ids": [] }, "home": { "team": "6", "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.1219512195122, 119.63414634146342 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 114.1219512195122, 119.63414634146342 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": true, "prior_event_ids": [ "401809235", "401809950", "401809966", "401809974", "401809988", "401810002", "401810015", "401810032", "401809776", "401810038", "401810058", "401810076", "401809788", "401810093", "401810101", "401810117", "401809794", "401810128", "401810141", "401809820", "401810155", "401810170", "401810187", "401810204", "401810211", "401836795", "401836805", "401810231", "401810242", "401810259", "401810270", "401809240", "401810287", "401810312", "401810328", "401810346", "401810370", "401810386", "401810401", "401810416", "401810430", "401810438", "401810448", "401809249", "401810485", "401810503", "401810532", "401810538", "401810556", "401810576", "401810593", "401810604", "401810628", "401810646", "401810661", "401810676", "401810688", "401810709", "401810716", "401810731", "401810738", "401810754", "401810763", "401810779", "401810794", "401810966", "401810820", "401810832", "401810843", "401810861", "401810884", "401810899", "401810914", "401810929", 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"training_games": 2798, "latest_game": "2026-10-09T02:45Z", "unknown_teams": [], "coefficient_sha256": "0dbb6e4f417bacc067c4de2a46397c65c62ee700857a046ee23870e9193f2e45" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "hits": 3, "n": 6, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.1876163064826506, 0.8123836935173494 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "Retained original Primary freeze", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Houston Rockets" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "id": "tighten-up-nba-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 117.4329275, 112.06707 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.4329275, 112.06707 ], "display_score": [ 117.5, 112.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 117.5, 112.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.231705, "pa": 110.01219 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.12195, "pa": 119.63415 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "NBA prior complete regular season for preseason; WNBA complete current regular season, postseason kept separate." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "hits": 3, "n": 6, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.1876163064826506, 0.8123836935173494 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Houston Rockets" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "id": "tighten-up-nba-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 117.4329275, 112.06707 ], "adjusted_score": [ 117.4329275, 112.06707 ], "display_score": [ 117.5, 112.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 117.5, 112.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.231705, "pa": 110.01219 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.12195, "pa": 119.63415 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "NBA prior complete regular season for preseason; WNBA complete current regular season, postseason kept separate." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "hits": 3, "n": 6, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.1876163064826506, 0.8123836935173494 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day 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Flagg/Sasser handle more creation. Aldama/Lively separate available branches reclaim16minutes each. Rookies/missing NBA history remain missing.", "noChangeFinding": "Conditional branches preserve240minutes and do not silently resolve availability.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Team-confirmed rotation and restrictions", "Shots/ballhandling share conditional on availability", "Validated possession/lineup offensive conversion and original model exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true }, { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-HOU", "eventId": "401898395", "teamName": "Houston Rockets", "stage": "preseason", "notes": "No reported injury in snapshot. No2026-27 preseason box baseline available. Allocation is an explicit analyst sensitivity scenario across16players; starter labels and planned rests remain unverified. Shot creation concentrated in Durant/Sengun/Thompson with VanVleet/Sheppard/Smart ballhandling.", "noChangeFinding": "No reported absence; no supported injury-driven minute transfer identified. Preseason rest remains unverified.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Team-confirmed rotation and restrictions", "Shots/ballhandling share conditional on availability", "Validated possession/lineup offensive conversion and original model exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true } ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 115.231705, "pa": 110.01219 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.12195, "pa": 119.63415 } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "NBA prior complete regular season for preseason; WNBA complete current regular season, postseason kept separate." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 97.4329275, 137.4329275 ], "home": [ 92.06707, 132.06707 ], "base_away": [ 97.4329275, 137.4329275 ], "base_home": [ 92.06707, 132.06707 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "stress": null, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/basketball/nba/standings?season=2026&seasontype=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\slate-NBA.json", "sha256": "a0419b52d776df2c17feacf9b709750c41882d75dad31aa08fa7193b753f1b94" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Four-Models-2026-10-09-Research\\tightenup\\NBA.json", "sha256": "60732af47b07e8b97d6a11d162f6e2d0e6452f3c2faeafeef89524c5f0ef0454" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Research\\retry-2026-10-09T11-12-08-881Z\\offensive-independent-review.json", "sha256": "1b6406190962ecdc96db41689ebf49d332b678c28b4146c5756c3bd49aef786f" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION", "ALREADY_STARTED_NO_NEW_SELECTION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. Football side/total point-buffer gates evaluated separately." }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [], "availability": null, "tracking": { "status": "TRACKING_ONLY", "source": "offensive-independent-review.json", "limitation": "Final rotations/lines unconfirmed; unestimated effects allowed in complete tracking review, no live activation" } }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "NBA prior complete regular season for preseason; WNBA complete current regular season, postseason kept separate." }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 97.4329275, 137.4329275 ], "home": [ 92.06707, 132.06707 ], "base_away": [ 97.4329275, 137.4329275 ], "base_home": [ 92.06707, 132.06707 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION", "ALREADY_STARTED_NO_NEW_SELECTION" ] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Houston Rockets, Primary: Houston Rockets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Houston Rockets, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Houston Rockets. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "stress": null }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Preseason", "venue": "Venetian Arena", "startUtc": "2026-10-09T12:00Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "nba_official.json", "url": "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-09", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:12:10.755Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": null, "restTravel": "NBA Starting 5 confirms both teams traveled more than 8,000 miles to Macao and had three days of activities/practice. Neutral venue removes ordinary Dallas home-court adjustment.", "sourceGates": [ "Preseason rotation and minutes volatility; nominal home designation does not establish normal home advantage.", "08:00 ET scheduled start: any publication or market retrieval at/after 12:00Z must be labeled started/unavailable, never a new pregame recommendation." ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "status": "Indoor venue; player rotation/goalie uncertainty handled in tracking review" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Houston Rockets, Primary: Houston Rockets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Houston Rockets, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Houston Rockets. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION", "ALREADY_STARTED_NO_NEW_SELECTION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Houston Rockets, Primary: Houston Rockets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Houston Rockets, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Houston Rockets. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/basketball/nba/standings?season=2026&seasontype=2", "https://www.nba.com/games?date=2026-10-09" ] }, { "id": "401908940", "sport": "NBA", "identity": { "id": "401908940", "date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL" } }, "away": "29", "away_name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "4", "home_name": "Chicago Bulls", "home_score": 0.0 }, "date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "official_date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "matchup": "Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls", "elapsed": false, "models": { "Classic": { "id": "classic-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 116.59146341463415, 119.9939024390244 ], "adjusted_score": [ 116.59146341463415, 119.9939024390244 ], "display_score": [ 116.5, 120.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 116.5, 120.0 ], "inputs": { "season": 2027, "prior_season": 2026, "k": 20, "league_regular_games": 1235, "league_points_per_team": 115.36315789473684, "latest_eligible_regular_game": "2026-04-13T00:30Z", "venue_per_team": 1.5, "away": { "team": "29", "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 114.67073170731707, 120.6829268292683 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 114.67073170731707, 120.6829268292683 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": true, "prior_event_ids": [ "401809938", "401809948", "401809958", "401809976", "401809992", "401809506", "401810007", "401810016", "401810031", "401809776", "401810049", "401810063", "401810071", "401810083", "401810107", "401810120", "401810128", "401810142", "401809807", "401809821", "401810162", "401810177", "401810202", "401810215", "401836754", "401836807", "401810223", "401810246", "401810261", "401810274", "401810283", "401810298", "401810313", "401810340", "401810356", "401810367", "401810379", "401810391", "401810404", "401810433", "401810457", "401810478", "401810494", "401810517", "401810531", "401810546", "401810555", "401810569", "401810586", "401810600", "401810610", "401810623", "401810642", "401810659", "401810668", "401810684", "401810699", "401810716", "401810727", "401810745", "401810751", "401810773", "401810787", "401810791", "401810966", "401810816", "401810842", "401858693", "401810874", "401810878", "401810892", "401810911", "401810924", "401810934", "401810948", "401810858", "401810980", "401810990", "401811000", "401811017", "401811036", "401811049" ], "current_event_ids": [] }, "home": { "team": "4", "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 0, "current_weight": 0, "prior_rates": [ 116.3048780487805, 121.51219512195122 ], "current_rates": [ 115.36315789473684, 115.36315789473684 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 116.3048780487805, 121.51219512195122 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": true, "prior_event_ids": [ "401809937", "401809955", "401809970", "401809987", "401809505", "401810008", "401810022", "401809777", "401810041", "401810057", "401810069", "401810095", "401810103", "401810118", "401809793", "401810126", "401810144", "401809813", "401810150", "401810169", "401810184", "401810200", "401810216", "401836750", "401836804", "401810222", "401810239", "401810251", "401810266", "401810282", "401810292", "401810307", "401810321", "401810335", "401810344", "401810358", "401810372", "401810401", "401810420", "401810428", "401810442", "401810458", "401810469", "401810486", "401810502", "401810516", "401810527", "401850920", "401810547", "401810560", "401810577", "401810591", "401810607", "401810617", "401810633", "401810652", "401810669", "401810680", "401810691", "401810708", "401810725", "401810744", "401810760", "401810785", "401810798", "401810815", "401810823", "401810842", "401810857", "401810866", "401810897", "401810908", "401810925", "401810934", "401810949", "401810964", "401810978", "401810989", "401811003", "401811021", "401811032", "401811048" ], "current_event_ids": [] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "hits": 2, "n": 6, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.09677141110578041, 0.700006684861608 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; 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one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "Retained original Primary freeze", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Chicago Bulls" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "id": "tighten-up-nba-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 118.09146000000001, 118.493905 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.09146000000001, 118.493905 ], "display_score": [ 118.0, 118.5 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 118.0, 118.5 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.67073, "pa": 120.68293 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.30488, "pa": 121.51219 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "NBA prior complete regular season for preseason; WNBA complete current regular season, postseason kept separate." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "hits": 3, "n": 6, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.1876163064826506, 0.8123836935173494 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Chicago Bulls" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "id": "tighten-up-nba-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 118.09146000000001, 118.493905 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.09146000000001, 118.493905 ], "display_score": [ 118.0, 118.5 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 118.0, 118.5 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.67073, "pa": 120.68293 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.30488, "pa": 121.51219 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "NBA prior complete regular season for preseason; WNBA complete current regular season, postseason kept separate." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NBA", "season_type": 1, "hits": 3, "n": 6, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.1876163064826506, 0.8123836935173494 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Chicago Bulls" } }, "tu": { "id": "401908940", "sport": "NBA", "division": null, "identity": { "id": "401908940", "date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 1, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NBA", "venue": { "id": "1847", "fullName": "United Center", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Chicago", "state": "IL" } }, "away": "29", "away_name": "Memphis Grizzlies", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "4", "home_name": "Chicago Bulls", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nba-existing-oct7", "formula": "Full 2026 season-label regular-season PF/opposing PA mean; WNBA venue -1.5 away/+1.5 home, NBA zero", "away_score": 118.09146000000001, "home_score": 118.493905, "base_score": [ 118.09146000000001, 118.493905 ], "unrounded_score": [ 118.09146000000001, 118.493905 ], "adjusted_score": [ 118.09146000000001, 118.493905 ], "adjustment_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_label": "Registered score retained; no numerical overlay applied; does not assert zero true effect", "sensitivity_scores": [], "offensive_review": [ { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-CHI", "eventId": "401908940", "teamName": "Chicago Bulls", "stage": "preseason", "notes": "Prior game rounded player minutes totaled239; add one balancing minute to Caleb Wilson for a240-minute reference scenario, not an alteration of actual boxscore. Four reported day-to-day players had vendor coach-decision DNP labels; DNP reason conflicts cannot establish medical availability. Claxton feed return estimateOct21 further supports treating current availability uncertain.", "noChangeFinding": "Conditional branches preserve240minutes and do not silently resolve availability.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Team-confirmed rotation and restrictions", "Shots/ballhandling share conditional on availability", "Validated possession/lineup offensive conversion and original model exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true }, { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-MEM", "eventId": "401908940", "teamName": "Memphis Grizzlies", "stage": "preseason", "notes": "Prior game rounded minutes totaled239; add one balancing minute to Coward in scenario only. Stewart/Peavy did not play with vendor coach-decision labels while listed day-to-day; no medical inference from DNP labels. Edey actual10minutes is a role observation, not proof of a restriction.", "noChangeFinding": "Conditional branches preserve240minutes and do not silently resolve availability.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Team-confirmed rotation and restrictions", "Shots/ballhandling share conditional on availability", "Validated possession/lineup offensive conversion and original model exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true } ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 114.67073, "pa": 120.68293 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 116.30488, "pa": 121.51219 } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "NBA prior complete regular season for preseason; WNBA complete current regular season, postseason kept separate." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 98.09146000000001, 138.09146 ], "home": [ 98.493905, 138.49390499999998 ], "base_away": [ 98.09146000000001, 138.09146 ], "base_home": [ 98.493905, 138.49390499999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "stress": null, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/nba/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/basketball/nba/standings?season=2026&seasontype=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\slate-NBA.json", "sha256": "a0419b52d776df2c17feacf9b709750c41882d75dad31aa08fa7193b753f1b94" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Four-Models-2026-10-09-Research\\tightenup\\NBA.json", "sha256": "60732af47b07e8b97d6a11d162f6e2d0e6452f3c2faeafeef89524c5f0ef0454" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Research\\retry-2026-10-09T11-12-08-881Z\\offensive-independent-review.json", "sha256": "1b6406190962ecdc96db41689ebf49d332b678c28b4146c5756c3bd49aef786f" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. Football side/total point-buffer gates evaluated separately." }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [], "availability": null, "tracking": { "status": "TRACKING_ONLY", "source": "offensive-independent-review.json", "limitation": "Final rotations/lines unconfirmed; unestimated effects allowed in complete tracking review, no live activation" } }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "NBA prior complete regular season for preseason; WNBA complete current regular season, postseason kept separate." }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 98.09146000000001, 138.09146 ], "home": [ 98.493905, 138.49390499999998 ], "base_away": [ 98.09146000000001, 138.09146 ], "base_home": [ 98.493905, 138.49390499999998 ], "team_allowance": 20, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. 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Memphis road travel; precise itinerary unverified.", "sourceGates": [ "Preseason rotation and minutes volatility; nominal home designation does not establish normal home advantage." ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "status": "Indoor venue; player rotation/goalie uncertainty handled in tracking review" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Chicago Bulls, Primary: Chicago Bulls, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Chicago Bulls, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Chicago Bulls. 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WNBA complete current regular season, postseason kept separate." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-08" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Las Vegas Aces" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "id": "tighten-up-wnba-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 82.48863700000001, 84.795455 ], "adjusted_score": [ 82.48863700000001, 84.795455 ], "display_score": [ 82.5, 85.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 82.5, 85.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 44, "pf": 82.15909, "pa": 75.11364 }, "home": { "games": 44, "pf": 91.47727, "pa": 85.818184 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 1, "justification": "NBA prior complete regular season for preseason; WNBA complete current regular season, postseason kept separate." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "n": 0, "hits": 0, "wilson95": null, "skips": 0, "window": "2026-10-08" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Las Vegas Aces" } }, "tu": { "id": "401918300", "sport": "WNBA", "division": null, "identity": { "id": "401918300", "date": "2026-10-10T01:30Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 3, "season": 2026, "neutral": false, "sport": "WNBA", "venue": { "id": "4005", "fullName": "Michelob ULTRA Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Las Vegas", "state": "NV" } }, "away": "129689", "away_name": "Golden State Valkyries", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "17", "home_name": "Las Vegas Aces", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-wnba-existing-oct7", "formula": "Full 2026 season-label regular-season PF/opposing PA mean; 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FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "stress": null, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/basketball/wnba/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/v2/sports/basketball/wnba/standings?season=2026&seasontype=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\slate-WNBA.json", "sha256": "675b704276fdc6e2daf39e1107aa0209aec255bd341aff87d5965c21573e111f" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Four-Models-2026-10-09-Research\\tightenup\\WNBA.json", "sha256": "9b79e3070a00df5f148234e85c861a1fed02572695bec92c99b01fec4f4fc65a" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. 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Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Las Vegas Aces, Primary: Las Vegas Aces, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Las Vegas Aces, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Las Vegas Aces. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "stress": null }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "WNBA semifinals, Game 3, best of five", "venue": "Michelob ULTRA Arena", "startUtc": "2026-10-10T01:30Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "wnba_game_lv.json", "url": "https://www.wnba.com/game/1042600213", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:34:15.287Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": null, "restTravel": "Both teams played Game 2 on Oct 7; one intervening off day. Series travels Golden State to Las Vegas for Game 3. Actual flight/arrival itinerary unverified.", "sourceGates": [ "Use playoff series object, not season series object, which ESPN misleadingly labels with semifinal description." ] }, "Polly Ticks": { "status": "Indoor venue; player rotation/goalie uncertainty handled in tracking review" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Las Vegas Aces, Primary: Las Vegas Aces, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Las Vegas Aces, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Las Vegas Aces. 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Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Las Vegas Aces, Primary: Las Vegas Aces, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Las Vegas Aces, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Las Vegas Aces. 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one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.767Z", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Detroit Red Wings" }, "Primary": { "id": "primary-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 2.870901734418349, 3.1369120565768305 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.870901734418349, 3.1369120565768305 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2852, "latest_game": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "unknown_teams": [], "coefficient_sha256": "21a0679ae3f63982e9e2b2ee6e768e896b35c7ab50b192d5aef24ac7a484e1fd" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 6, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.31267376973365824, 0.8318196702937638 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "Retained original Primary freeze", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Detroit Red Wings" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 2.91463, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.91463, 3.0243849999999997 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.91463, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 17 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 7, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.39677814746114537, 0.8922087325936989 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Detroit Red Wings" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 2.91463, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.91463, 3.0243849999999997 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.91463, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 17 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 7, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.39677814746114537, 0.8922087325936989 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Detroit Red Wings" } }, "tu": { "id": "401892465", "sport": "NHL", "division": null, "identity": { "id": "401892465", "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "5404", "fullName": "Little Caesars Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Detroit", "state": "MI", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "124292", "away_name": "Seattle Kraken", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "5", "home_name": "Detroit Red Wings", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "formula": "2025/26 regular-season PF/opposing PA mean; no goalie/venue bonus", "away_score": 2.91463, "home_score": 3.0243849999999997, "base_score": [ 2.91463, 3.0243849999999997 ], "unrounded_score": [ 2.91463, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.91463, 3.0243849999999997 ], "adjustment_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_label": "Registered score retained; no numerical overlay applied; does not assert zero true effect", "sensitivity_scores": [], "offensive_review": [ { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-DET", "eventId": "401892465", "teamName": "Detroit Red Wings", "stage": "regular", "notes": "Last actual allocation used11forwards/7defensemen. Larkin returned Oct6 and logged20:41; his return is already present in that reference. Edvinsson absence is contract-related per official SEA preview, superseding a generic vendor Out label. Compher/Kasper center work sits within Copp/Rasmussen/Finnie/Danielson pool. Exact Oct9 lineup and PP assignments unresolved.", "noChangeFinding": "Prior-reference omissions identified per player; no blanket zero injury effect claimed.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Confirmed Oct9 dressing lineup", "Current ES/PP affected minutes", "Validated lineup offensive goal/xG rate difference and base-lineup exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true }, { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-SEA", "eventId": "401892465", "teamName": "Seattle Kraken", "stage": "regular", "notes": "Official Oct8 preview for Oct9 projects Mahura replacing unavailable Lindgren alongside Fleury; Ottavainen is an alternative. Lindgren last played only3:57 before leaving, so treating3:57 as his normal expected contribution understates the event. Current top-four carried roughly20\u201324minutes in that game; a fresh full-game bottom-pair workload remains uncertain.", "noChangeFinding": "Prior-reference omissions identified per player; no blanket zero injury effect claimed.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Confirmed Oct9 dressing lineup", "Current ES/PP affected minutes", "Validated lineup offensive goal/xG rate difference and base-lineup exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true } ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.7317, "pa": 3.13414, "official_team_id": 55 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.91463, "pa": 3.09756, "official_team_id": 17 } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9146299999999998, 4.91463 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "base_away": [ 0.9146299999999998, 4.91463 ], "base_home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "stress": null, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\slate-NHL.json", "sha256": "5f61391a57bbdc8102695e0050f17b4eb41239f49f3d867c45245e73593684e4" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Four-Models-2026-10-09-Research\\tightenup\\NHL.json", "sha256": "a7b2910ab83025abde4727199ec15c4c08599d97be57ab6477170734640f1624" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Research\\retry-2026-10-09T11-12-08-881Z\\offensive-independent-review.json", "sha256": "1b6406190962ecdc96db41689ebf49d332b678c28b4146c5756c3bd49aef786f" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. Football side/total point-buffer gates evaluated separately." }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [], "availability": null, "tracking": { "status": "TRACKING_ONLY", "source": "offensive-independent-review.json", "limitation": "Final rotations/lines unconfirmed; unestimated effects allowed in complete tracking review, no live activation" } }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 0.9146299999999998, 4.91463 ], "home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "base_away": [ 0.9146299999999998, 4.91463 ], "base_home": [ 1.0243849999999997, 5.024385 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Detroit Red Wings, Primary: Detroit Red Wings, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Detroit Red Wings, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Detroit Red Wings. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "stress": null }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Regular season", "venue": "Little Caesars Arena", "startUtc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "nhl_official.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:12:10.398Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": null, "restTravel": [ { "team": "Detroit Red Wings", "lastGameDate": "2026-10-06", "lastVenue": "Little Caesars Arena", "lastMatch": "OTT at DET", "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Same venue as prior game", "source": { "file": "nhl_club_DET.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/DET/20262027", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:32:50.67Z" } }, { "team": "Seattle Kraken", "lastGameDate": "2026-10-06", "lastVenue": "Climate Pledge Arena", "lastMatch": "VGK at SEA", "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Venue change; actual itinerary unverified", "source": { "file": "nhl_club_SEA.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/SEA/20262027", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:32:50.634Z" } } ], "sourceGates": [] }, "Polly Ticks": { "status": "Indoor venue; player rotation/goalie uncertainty handled in tracking review" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Detroit Red Wings, Primary: Detroit Red Wings, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Detroit Red Wings, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Detroit Red Wings. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Detroit Red Wings, Primary: Detroit Red Wings, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Detroit Red Wings, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Detroit Red Wings. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/DET/20262027", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/SEA/20262027", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000" ] }, { "id": "401892466", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892466", "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1823", "fullName": "Capital One Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "13", "away_name": "New York Rangers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "23", "home_name": "Washington Capitals", "home_score": 0.0 }, "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "official_date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "matchup": "New York Rangers at Washington Capitals", "elapsed": false, "models": { "Classic": { "id": "classic-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 2.848632025450689, 3.1131283138918353 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.848632025450689, 3.1131283138918353 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "season": 2027, "prior_season": 2026, "k": 20, "league_regular_games": 1377, "league_points_per_team": 3.126724763979666, "latest_eligible_regular_game": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "venue_per_team": 0.1, "away": { "team": "13", "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 5, "current_weight": 0.2, "prior_rates": [ 2.902439024390244, 3.048780487804878 ], "current_rates": [ 3.2, 1.6 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 2.961951219512195, 2.759024390243903 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401801799", "401802360", "401802380", "401802389", "401802402", "401802412", "401802431", "401802444", "401802467", "401802497", "401802514", "401802526", "401802544", "401802557", "401802578", "401802588", "401802604", "401802616", "401802641", "401802650", "401802664", "401802677", "401802695", "401802706", "401802719", "401802727", "401802742", "401802766", "401802778", "401802792", "401802809", "401802827", "401802851", "401802866", "401802874", "401802892", "401802900", "401802918", "401802927", "401802939", "401802959", "401802973", "401802992", "401803013", "401803036", "401803048", "401803069", "401803088", "401803106", "401803130", "401803138", "401803159", "401803177", "401803193", "401803200", "401803212", "401803257", "401803275", "401803285", "401803304", "401803326", "401803342", "401803359", "401803368", "401803387", "401803397", "401803416", "401803428", "401803437", "401803461", "401803470", "401803487", "401803502", "401803518", "401803533", "401803546", "401803558", "401803578", "401803595", "401803619", "401803634", "401803653" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401891774", "401891819", "401891803", "401892443", "401892452" ] }, "home": { "team": "23", "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 3.207317073170732, 2.975609756097561 ], "current_rates": [ 3.6666666666666665, 2.6666666666666665 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 3.267232237539767, 2.935312831389183 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401802356", "401802379", "401802389", "401802403", "401802424", "401802440", "401802453", "401802476", "401802486", "401802510", "401802530", "401802537", "401802565", "401802572", "401802587", "401802610", "401802624", "401802639", "401802655", "401802666", "401802671", "401802692", "401802707", "401802718", "401802737", "401802753", "401802771", "401802776", "401802791", "401802810", "401802836", "401802854", "401802877", "401802890", "401802901", "401802913", "401802927", "401802943", "401802958", "401802973", "401802983", "401803003", "401803014", "401803028", "401803045", "401803064", "401803078", "401803093", "401803112", "401803122", "401803143", "401803157", "401803169", "401803190", "401803197", "401803215", "401803229", "401803240", "401803259", "401803262", "401803282", "401803291", "401803313", "401803341", "401803360", "401803377", "401803379", "401803395", "401803430", "401803446", "401803462", "401803479", "401803497", "401803517", "401803535", "401803545", "401803564", "401803578", "401803596", "401803614", "401803627", "401803646" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401892432", "401891826", "401891830" ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 6, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.31267376973365824, 0.8318196702937638 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.767Z", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Washington Capitals" }, "Primary": { "id": "primary-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 2.8600434938977504, 3.1857060537039112 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.8600434938977504, 3.1857060537039112 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2852, "latest_game": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "unknown_teams": [], "coefficient_sha256": "21a0679ae3f63982e9e2b2ee6e768e896b35c7ab50b192d5aef24ac7a484e1fd" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 6, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.31267376973365824, 0.8318196702937638 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "Retained original Primary freeze", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Washington Capitals" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 2.88414, 3.10975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.88414, 3.10975 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.18292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 15 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 7, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.39677814746114537, 0.8922087325936989 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Washington Capitals" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 2.88414, 3.10975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.88414, 3.10975 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.18292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 15 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 7, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.39677814746114537, 0.8922087325936989 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Washington Capitals" } }, "tu": { "id": "401892466", "sport": "NHL", "division": null, "identity": { "id": "401892466", "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1823", "fullName": "Capital One Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Washington", "state": "DC", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "13", "away_name": "New York Rangers", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "23", "home_name": "Washington Capitals", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "formula": "2025/26 regular-season PF/opposing PA mean; no goalie/venue bonus", "away_score": 2.88414, "home_score": 3.10975, "base_score": [ 2.88414, 3.10975 ], "unrounded_score": [ 2.88414, 3.10975 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.88414, 3.10975 ], "adjustment_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_label": "Registered score retained; no numerical overlay applied; does not assert zero true effect", "sensitivity_scores": [], "offensive_review": [ { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-WSH", "eventId": "401892466", "teamName": "Washington Capitals", "stage": "regular", "notes": "Last actual defense already excluded Roy and Sandin. Roy return would reclaim minutes from Desharnais/McIlrath; Sandin absence leaves Hutson/Liljegren opportunity. No further absence penalty should be assumed relative to an already depleted reference.", "noChangeFinding": "Prior-reference omissions identified per player; no blanket zero injury effect claimed.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Confirmed Oct9 dressing lineup", "Current ES/PP affected minutes", "Validated lineup offensive goal/xG rate difference and base-lineup exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true }, { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-NYR", "eventId": "401892466", "teamName": "New York Rangers", "stage": "regular", "notes": "Last actual lineup includes Beaudoin9:57 and Chmelar8:28, while Veleno is absent; their current role is observed, but causal one-for-one substitution and PP usage are not confirmed.", "noChangeFinding": "Prior-reference omissions identified per player; no blanket zero injury effect claimed.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Confirmed Oct9 dressing lineup", "Current ES/PP affected minutes", "Validated lineup offensive goal/xG rate difference and base-lineup exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true } ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.86585, "pa": 3.03658, "official_team_id": 3 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.18292, "pa": 2.90243, "official_team_id": 15 } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8841399999999999, 4.88414 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "base_away": [ 0.8841399999999999, 4.88414 ], "base_home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "stress": null, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\slate-NHL.json", "sha256": "5f61391a57bbdc8102695e0050f17b4eb41239f49f3d867c45245e73593684e4" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Four-Models-2026-10-09-Research\\tightenup\\NHL.json", "sha256": "a7b2910ab83025abde4727199ec15c4c08599d97be57ab6477170734640f1624" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Research\\retry-2026-10-09T11-12-08-881Z\\offensive-independent-review.json", "sha256": "1b6406190962ecdc96db41689ebf49d332b678c28b4146c5756c3bd49aef786f" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. Football side/total point-buffer gates evaluated separately." }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [], "availability": null, "tracking": { "status": "TRACKING_ONLY", "source": "offensive-independent-review.json", "limitation": "Final rotations/lines unconfirmed; unestimated effects allowed in complete tracking review, no live activation" } }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 0.8841399999999999, 4.88414 ], "home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "base_away": [ 0.8841399999999999, 4.88414 ], "base_home": [ 1.10975, 5.10975 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Washington Capitals, Primary: Washington Capitals, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Washington Capitals, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Washington Capitals. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "stress": null }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Regular season", "venue": "Capital One Arena", "startUtc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "nhl_official.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:12:10.398Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": null, "restTravel": [ { "team": "Washington Capitals", "lastGameDate": "2026-10-07", "lastVenue": "Capital One Arena", "lastMatch": "PIT at WSH", "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Same venue as prior game", "source": { "file": "nhl_club_WSH.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/WSH/20262027", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:32:50.702Z" } }, { "team": "New York Rangers", "lastGameDate": "2026-10-06", "lastVenue": "Madison Square Garden", "lastMatch": "NYI at NYR", "offDays": 2, "travelInference": "Venue change; actual itinerary unverified", "source": { "file": "nhl_club_NYR.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/NYR/20262027", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:32:50.676Z" } } ], "sourceGates": [] }, "Polly Ticks": { "status": "Indoor venue; player rotation/goalie uncertainty handled in tracking review" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Washington Capitals, Primary: Washington Capitals, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Washington Capitals, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Washington Capitals. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Washington Capitals, Primary: Washington Capitals, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Washington Capitals, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Washington Capitals. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/NYR/20262027", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/WSH/20262027", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000" ] }, { "id": "401892467", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892467", "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "29", "home_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "official_date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "matchup": "Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets", "elapsed": false, "models": { "Classic": { "id": "classic-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 3.3253510716925354, 3.2941518847006654 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.3253510716925354, 3.2941518847006654 ], "display_score": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "inputs": { "season": 2027, "prior_season": 2026, "k": 20, "league_regular_games": 1377, "league_points_per_team": 3.126724763979666, "latest_eligible_regular_game": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "venue_per_team": 0.1, "away": { "team": "16", "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 3.573170731707317, 3.268292682926829 ], "current_rates": [ 4.5, 3.25 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 3.7276422764227646, 3.2652439024390243 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401801799", "401802364", "401802380", "401802407", "401802422", "401802439", "401802452", "401802465", "401802485", "401802499", "401802501", "401802524", "401802533", "401802550", "401802572", "401802582", "401802596", "401802630", "401802647", "401802683", "401802691", "401802717", "401802739", "401802747", "401802758", "401802779", "401802807", "401802821", "401802835", "401802848", "401802860", "401802875", "401802888", "401802907", "401802917", "401802926", "401802955", "401802970", "401802986", "401802995", "401803009", "401803038", "401803049", "401803063", "401803077", "401803092", "401803111", "401803123", "401803142", "401803151", "401803173", "401803201", "401803212", "401803228", "401803239", "401803254", "401803273", "401803285", "401803298", "401803310", "401803328", "401803344", "401803353", "401803369", "401803390", "401803405", "401803418", "401803429", "401803450", "401803463", "401803477", "401803489", "401803507", "401803524", "401803534", "401803543", "401803562", "401803574", "401803602", "401803614", "401803627", "401803650" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401891821", "401891822", "401892447", "401891830" ] }, "home": { "team": "29", "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 2, "current_weight": 0.09090909090909091, "prior_rates": [ 3.0853658536585367, 3.0853658536585367 ], "current_rates": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 3.123059866962306, 3.123059866962306 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401802367", "401802384", "401802396", "401802418", "401802433", "401802457", "401802476", "401802485", "401802503", "401802517", "401802540", "401802546", "401802566", "401802592", "401802605", "401802615", "401802625", "401802641", "401802656", "401802662", "401802670", "401802686", "401802707", "401802720", "401802739", "401802757", "401802783", "401802793", "401802810", "401802822", "401802837", "401802853", "401802876", "401802891", "401802911", "401802925", "401802954", "401802957", "401802978", "401802997", "401803009", "401803026", "401803043", "401803050", "401803065", "401803079", "401803094", "401803111", "401803133", "401803148", "401803165", "401803191", "401803209", "401803219", "401803238", "401803245", "401803269", "401803288", "401803304", "401803314", "401803329", "401803346", "401857755", "401803366", "401803382", "401803403", "401803421", "401803437", "401803455", "401803465", "401803476", "401803488", "401803509", "401803521", "401803536", "401803548", "401803566", "401803586", "401803598", "401803622", "401803629", "401803646" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401891781", "401892436" ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 6, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.31267376973365824, 0.8318196702937638 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.767Z", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Pittsburgh Penguins" }, "Primary": { "id": "primary-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 3.29776523024931, 3.388260702684709 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.29776523024931, 3.388260702684709 ], "display_score": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.5, 3.5 ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2852, "latest_game": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "unknown_teams": [], "coefficient_sha256": "21a0679ae3f63982e9e2b2ee6e768e896b35c7ab50b192d5aef24ac7a484e1fd" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 6, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.31267376973365824, 0.8318196702937638 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "Retained original Primary freeze", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Columbus Blue Jackets" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 3.298775, 3.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.298775, 3.07317 ], "display_score": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.53658, "pa": 3.14634, "official_team_id": 5 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 7, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.39677814746114537, 0.8922087325936989 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Pittsburgh Penguins" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 3.298775, 3.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.298775, 3.07317 ], "display_score": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.5, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.53658, "pa": 3.14634, "official_team_id": 5 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 7, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.39677814746114537, 0.8922087325936989 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Pittsburgh Penguins" } }, "tu": { "id": "401892467", "sport": "NHL", "division": null, "identity": { "id": "401892467", "date": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1828", "fullName": "Nationwide Arena", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Columbus", "state": "OH", "country": "USA" } }, "away": "16", "away_name": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "29", "home_name": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "formula": "2025/26 regular-season PF/opposing PA mean; no goalie/venue bonus", "away_score": 3.298775, "home_score": 3.07317, "base_score": [ 3.298775, 3.07317 ], "unrounded_score": [ 3.298775, 3.07317 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.298775, 3.07317 ], "adjustment_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_label": "Registered score retained; no numerical overlay applied; does not assert zero true effect", "sensitivity_scores": [], "offensive_review": [ { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-CBJ", "eventId": "401892467", "teamName": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "stage": "regular", "notes": "No reported skater absence in current event feed. Retain actual18-skater reference. September28 trade predates season; Knies/Andrae already occur in current reference, so do not charge the former Marchenko lineup again.", "noChangeFinding": "No reported skater absence and no demonstrated new offensive replacement relative to last actual18skaters; conditionally unchanged lineup, not proof of perfect health.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Confirmed Oct9 dressing lineup", "Current ES/PP affected minutes", "Validated lineup offensive goal/xG rate difference and base-lineup exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true }, { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-PIT", "eventId": "401892467", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "stage": "regular", "notes": "Kuzmenko is on non-roster personal leave and will not play on the Washington/Columbus trip per team report; vendor IR classification is superseded. Last game already used Robertson/Koivunen/Chinakhov. Stastney was scratched after trade; Carlile and Girard remain observed alternatives, not a confirmed new pairing.", "noChangeFinding": "Prior-reference omissions identified per player; no blanket zero injury effect claimed.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Confirmed Oct9 dressing lineup", "Current ES/PP affected minutes", "Validated lineup offensive goal/xG rate difference and base-lineup exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true } ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.53658, "pa": 3.14634, "official_team_id": 5 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.0, "pa": 3.06097, "official_team_id": 29 } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.298775, 5.298775 ], "home": [ 1.0731700000000002, 5.07317 ], "base_away": [ 1.298775, 5.298775 ], "base_home": [ 1.0731700000000002, 5.07317 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "stress": null, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\slate-NHL.json", "sha256": "5f61391a57bbdc8102695e0050f17b4eb41239f49f3d867c45245e73593684e4" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Four-Models-2026-10-09-Research\\tightenup\\NHL.json", "sha256": "a7b2910ab83025abde4727199ec15c4c08599d97be57ab6477170734640f1624" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Research\\retry-2026-10-09T11-12-08-881Z\\offensive-independent-review.json", "sha256": "1b6406190962ecdc96db41689ebf49d332b678c28b4146c5756c3bd49aef786f" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. Football side/total point-buffer gates evaluated separately." }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [], "availability": null, "tracking": { "status": "TRACKING_ONLY", "source": "offensive-independent-review.json", "limitation": "Final rotations/lines unconfirmed; unestimated effects allowed in complete tracking review, no live activation" } }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 1.298775, 5.298775 ], "home": [ 1.0731700000000002, 5.07317 ], "base_away": [ 1.298775, 5.298775 ], "base_home": [ 1.0731700000000002, 5.07317 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Pittsburgh Penguins, Primary: Columbus Blue Jackets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Pittsburgh Penguins, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Pittsburgh Penguins. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "stress": null }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Regular season", "venue": "Nationwide Arena", "startUtc": "2026-10-09T23:00Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "nhl_official.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:12:10.398Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": null, "restTravel": [ { "team": "Columbus Blue Jackets", "lastGameDate": "2026-10-03", "lastVenue": "Nationwide Arena", "lastMatch": "UTA at CBJ", "offDays": 5, "travelInference": "Same venue as prior game", "source": { "file": "nhl_club_CBJ.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/CBJ/20262027", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:32:50.75Z" } }, { "team": "Pittsburgh Penguins", "lastGameDate": "2026-10-07", "lastVenue": "Capital One Arena", "lastMatch": "PIT at WSH", "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Venue change; actual itinerary unverified", "source": { "file": "nhl_club_PIT.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/PIT/20262027", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:32:50.698Z" } } ], "sourceGates": [] }, "Polly Ticks": { "status": "Indoor venue; player rotation/goalie uncertainty handled in tracking review" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Pittsburgh Penguins, Primary: Columbus Blue Jackets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Pittsburgh Penguins, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Pittsburgh Penguins. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Pittsburgh Penguins, Primary: Columbus Blue Jackets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Pittsburgh Penguins, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Pittsburgh Penguins. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/CBJ/20262027", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/PIT/20262027", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000" ] }, { "id": "401892468", "sport": "NHL", "identity": { "id": "401892468", "date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "Anaheim Ducks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Winnipeg Jets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "official_date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "matchup": "Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets", "elapsed": false, "models": { "Classic": { "id": "classic-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 3.0726316719688938, 3.2682131495227997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.0726316719688938, 3.2682131495227997 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "inputs": { "season": 2027, "prior_season": 2026, "k": 20, "league_regular_games": 1377, "league_points_per_team": 3.126724763979666, "latest_eligible_regular_game": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "venue_per_team": 0.1, "away": { "team": "25", "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 3, "current_weight": 0.13043478260869565, "prior_rates": [ 3.3292682926829267, 3.5121951219512195 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 3.3333333333333335 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 3.286320254506893, 3.488865323435843 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401802372", "401802387", "401802407", "401802421", "401802442", "401802456", "401802462", "401802480", "401802504", "401802531", "401802548", "401802562", "401802575", "401802593", "401802602", "401802613", "401802623", "401802635", "401802657", "401802669", "401802680", "401802697", "401802725", "401802735", "401802754", "401802760", "401802775", "401802791", "401802811", "401802821", "401802833", "401802846", "401802866", "401802876", "401802899", "401802911", "401802924", "401802948", "401802966", "401802975", "401802994", "401803014", "401803021", "401803039", "401803052", "401803085", "401803104", "401803117", "401803130", "401803140", "401803160", "401803175", "401803180", "401803206", "401803226", "401803243", "401803268", "401803284", "401803303", "401803319", "401803324", "401803338", "401803357", "401803373", "401803380", "401803394", "401803410", "401803433", "401803449", "401803468", "401803485", "401803498", "401803505", "401803527", "401803541", "401803557", "401803570", "401803594", "401803609", "401803631", "401803647", "401803658" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401892433", "401891778", "401892456" ] }, "home": { "team": "28", "prior_games": 82, "current_games": 4, "current_weight": 0.16666666666666666, "prior_rates": [ 2.817073170731707, 3.1707317073170733 ], "current_rates": [ 3, 2.5 ], "shrunk_rates": [ 2.847560975609756, 3.0589430894308944 ], "prior_fallback": false, "current_fallback": false, "prior_event_ids": [ "401802368", "401802373", "401802393", "401802417", "401802435", "401802447", "401802471", "401802477", "401802494", "401802508", "401802525", "401802533", "401802563", "401802581", "401802602", "401802614", "401802629", "401802645", "401802662", "401802684", "401802699", "401802718", "401802738", "401802748", "401802759", "401802773", "401802788", "401802801", "401802824", "401802840", "401802854", "401802867", "401802882", "401802897", "401802920", "401802945", "401802960", "401802977", "401802985", "401803001", "401803024", "401803041", "401803046", "401803062", "401803083", "401803095", "401803113", "401803127", "401803136", "401803150", "401803166", "401803186", "401803198", "401803213", "401803233", "401803246", "401803266", "401803284", "401803301", "401803315", "401803331", "401803347", "401803373", "401803387", "401803396", "401803408", "401803422", "401803434", "401803450", "401803461", "401803482", "401803496", "401803513", "401803537", "401803549", "401803566", "401803581", "401803604", "401803623", "401803641", "401803648", "401803659" ], "current_event_ids": [ "401891831", "401892442", "401892447", "401892455" ] } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Classic", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 6, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.31267376973365824, 0.8318196702937638 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.767Z", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Winnipeg Jets" }, "Primary": { "id": "primary-2.0.0", "unrounded_score": [ 2.975472518076778, 3.3018280762447207 ], "adjusted_score": [ 2.975472518076778, 3.3018280762447207 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.5 ], "inputs": { "training_games": 2852, "latest_game": "2026-10-09T02:00Z", "unknown_teams": [], "coefficient_sha256": "21a0679ae3f63982e9e2b2ee6e768e896b35c7ab50b192d5aef24ac7a484e1fd" }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Primary", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 6, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.31267376973365824, 0.8318196702937638 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "Retained original Primary freeze", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Winnipeg Jets" }, "Tighten Up Conservative ON": { "id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 3.176825, 3.1524349999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.176825, 3.1524349999999997 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 52 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative ON", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 7, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.39677814746114537, 0.8922087325936989 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Anaheim Ducks" }, "Tighten Up Conservative OFF": { "id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "unrounded_score": [ 3.176825, 3.1524349999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.176825, 3.1524349999999997 ], "display_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "display_adjusted_score": [ 3.0, 3.0 ], "inputs": { "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 52 } }, "terms": {}, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." } }, "selected_market_probability": null, "exact_score_probability": null, "historical_accuracy": { "model": "Tighten Up Conservative OFF", "sport": "NHL", "season_type": 2, "hits": 7, "n": 10, "skips": 0, "wilson95": [ 0.39677814746114537, 0.8922087325936989 ], "window": "2026-10-08", "basis": "Retained pregame base-score winner accuracy; one-day descriptive small sample, not event confidence" }, "base_status": "New follow-up calculation", "cutoff_utc": "2026-10-09T11:34:12.066343+00:00", "overlay": "offensive-replacement-v1; unestimated effects retained, not zero", "replacement_scenarios": [], "projected_winner": "Anaheim Ducks" } }, "tu": { "id": "401892468", "sport": "NHL", "division": null, "identity": { "id": "401892468", "date": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "completed": false, "state": "STATUS_SCHEDULED", "season_type": 2, "season": 2027, "neutral": false, "sport": "NHL", "venue": { "id": "1397", "fullName": "Canada Life Centre", "indoor": true, "address": { "city": "Winnipeg", "state": "MB", "country": "Canada" } }, "away": "25", "away_name": "Anaheim Ducks", "away_score": 0.0, "home": "28", "home_name": "Winnipeg Jets", "home_score": 0.0 }, "engine_id": "tighten-up-nhl-existing-oct7", "formula": "2025/26 regular-season PF/opposing PA mean; no goalie/venue bonus", "away_score": 3.176825, "home_score": 3.1524349999999997, "base_score": [ 3.176825, 3.1524349999999997 ], "unrounded_score": [ 3.176825, 3.1524349999999997 ], "adjusted_score": [ 3.176825, 3.1524349999999997 ], "adjustment_delta": [ 0, 0 ], "adjusted_label": "Registered score retained; no numerical overlay applied; does not assert zero true effect", "sensitivity_scores": [], "offensive_review": [ { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-WPG", "eventId": "401892468", "teamName": "Winnipeg Jets", "stage": "regular", "notes": "Morrissey logged injury-shortened9:32 in last game; Pionk23:10, Ferraro23:36 and Samberg25:25 took large total workloads. Conditional out scenario gives sixth-defense competition to Fleury/Bauer and extra puck movement to Pionk; no named PP1 replacement confirmed.", "noChangeFinding": "Prior-reference omissions identified per player; no blanket zero injury effect claimed.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Confirmed Oct9 dressing lineup", "Current ES/PP affected minutes", "Validated lineup offensive goal/xG rate difference and base-lineup exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true }, { "reviewId": "2026-10-09-ANA", "eventId": "401892468", "teamName": "Anaheim Ducks", "stage": "regular", "notes": "Last game already excluded Terry/Helleson/Moore. Sennecke24:58 and Gauthier24:10 carried large offensive workload; Warren17:17, Mitchell13:12, Hinds11:53 and Luneau21:33 formed the observed defense coverage. Reusing this already depleted reference does not justify another full absence deduction.", "noChangeFinding": "Prior-reference omissions identified per player; no blanket zero injury effect claimed.", "statisticalAdjustment": null, "adjustedScoreStatus": "BASELINE_RETAINED_WITH_UNESTIMATED_OVERLAY_NOT_ZERO_EFFECT", "disclosedLimitations": [ "Confirmed Oct9 dressing lineup", "Current ES/PP affected minutes", "Validated lineup offensive goal/xG rate difference and base-lineup exposure" ], "numericOverlayReady": false, "pendingFinalRoles": true } ], "baseline": { "away": { "games": 82, "pf": 3.2317, "pa": 3.51219, "official_team_id": 24 }, "home": { "games": 82, "pf": 2.79268, "pa": 3.12195, "official_team_id": 52 } }, "terms": {}, "venue": { "away": 0, "home": 0 }, "current_component_policy": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." }, "ranges": { "away": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "home": [ 1.1524349999999997, 5.152435 ], "base_away": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "base_home": [ 1.1524349999999997, 5.152435 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "stress": null, "sources": [ "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2" ], "input_files": [ { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Primary-Research\\slate-NHL.json", "sha256": "5f61391a57bbdc8102695e0050f17b4eb41239f49f3d867c45245e73593684e4" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\Four-Models-2026-10-09-Research\\tightenup\\NHL.json", "sha256": "a7b2910ab83025abde4727199ec15c4c08599d97be57ab6477170734640f1624" }, { "path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-09-Research\\retry-2026-10-09T11-12-08-881Z\\offensive-independent-review.json", "sha256": "1b6406190962ecdc96db41689ebf49d332b678c28b4146c5756c3bd49aef786f" } ], "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "preprice_gate": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "conservative_on": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": false }, "conservative_off": { "status": "PASS / NOT LIVE", "minimum_side_buffer": null, "minimum_total_buffer": null, "free_picks": true }, "probabilities": null, "probability_status": "No validated distribution; no model moneyline edge or exact-score probability. Football side/total point-buffer gates evaluated separately." }, "risks": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "desks": { "Parker Fields": { "reviewer": "Independent personnel/gate agent; prior official role review retained", "personnel": [], "availability": null, "tracking": { "status": "TRACKING_ONLY", "source": "offensive-independent-review.json", "limitation": "Final rotations/lines unconfirmed; unestimated effects allowed in complete tracking review, no live activation" } }, "Uncle Sibursam": { "reviewer": "Independent Classic and Tighten Up scoring agents", "sample": { "current_new_season_scoring_rate": 0, "justification": "Prior full regular season; new-season small sample excluded from means." }, "baseline_and_drives": "tightenup/tightenup-candidates.json", "ranges": { "away": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "home": [ 1.1524349999999997, 5.152435 ], "base_away": [ 1.176825, 5.176825 ], "base_home": [ 1.1524349999999997, 5.152435 ], "team_allowance": 2, "probability_interval": false, "basis": "Inherited descriptive allowance; FBS18/FCS20/NBA20/WNBA12/NHL2. Not calibrated coverage." }, "limitations": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ] }, "Gideon Marsh": { "reviewer": "Independent arithmetic audit plus parent reconciliation", "audit": "desks/independent-tu-arithmetic.json", "disagreement": "Winner directions: Classic: Winnipeg Jets, Primary: Winnipeg Jets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Anaheim Ducks, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Anaheim Ducks. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "stress": null }, "ConstitutionOwl": { "stage": "Regular season", "venue": "Canada Life Centre", "startUtc": "2026-10-10T00:00Z", "scheduleSource": { "file": "nhl_official.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T11:12:10.398Z" }, "scheduleCorrections": null, "restTravel": [ { "team": "Winnipeg Jets", "lastGameDate": "2026-10-07", "lastVenue": "Canada Life Centre", "lastMatch": "COL at WPG", "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Same venue as prior game", "source": { "file": "nhl_club_WPG.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/WPG/20262027", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:32:50.74Z" } }, { "team": "Anaheim Ducks", "lastGameDate": "2026-10-07", "lastVenue": "Honda Center", "lastMatch": "EDM at ANA", "offDays": 1, "travelInference": "Venue change; actual itinerary unverified", "source": { "file": "nhl_club_ANA.json", "url": "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/ANA/20262027", "retrieved": "2026-10-09T05:32:50.679Z" } } ], "sourceGates": [] }, "Polly Ticks": { "status": "Indoor venue; player rotation/goalie uncertainty handled in tracking review" }, "Liberty Belle": { "reviewer": "Parent and independent gate auditor", "prior_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "phase": "Sporting inputs allowlisted; new prices only after checksum freeze" }, "Warren Bullion": { "reviewer": "Parent synthesis", "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Winnipeg Jets, Primary: Winnipeg Jets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Anaheim Ducks, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Anaheim Ducks. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "risk_register": [ { "severity": "HIGH", "risk": "Canonical sport policy tracking-only; no explicit live activation/buffers/adverse rule.", "resolved": false, "hard_gate": true } ], "gate_basis": { "prerequisites": [ "TRACKING_ONLY_NO_EXPLICIT_ACTIVATION" ], "high_risks": 1, "medium_risks": 0, "availability_close_to_publication": "PARENT_FINAL_DESK_CHECK_REQUIRED", "weather_travel_schedule": "PARENT_RECONCILIATION_REQUIRED", "moneyline": "UNAVAILABLE_NO_VALIDATED_MODEL_PROBABILITY", "side_total": "PASS_PENDING_RECONCILIATION", "on_side_buffer": null, "on_total_buffer": null, "off_side_buffer": null, "off_total_buffer": null, "on_unresolved_medium_blocks": true, "off_two_medium_downgrade_three_pass": true, "on_maximum_selections": 2, "on_free_picks": false, "second_review_required": true }, "selection_specific_reassessment": "Known branch risk may be resolved only if same market side survives all supported branches and stresses. Missing unbounded critical-player effect cannot be declared zero. ON excludes unresolved medium; OFF two medium downgrades, three blocks. No moneyline probability available." } }, "synthesis": "Winner directions: Classic: Winnipeg Jets, Primary: Winnipeg Jets, Tighten Up Conservative ON: Anaheim Ducks, Tighten Up Conservative OFF: Anaheim Ducks. Tracking-only activation prevents any live selection.", "sources": [ "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/ANA/20262027", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/club-schedule-season/WPG/20262027", "https://api-web.nhle.com/v1/schedule/2026-10-09", "https://api.nhle.com/stats/rest/en/team/summary?isAggregate=false&isGame=false&start=0&limit=100&cayenneExp=seasonId=20252026%20and%20gameTypeId=2", "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/hockey/nhl/scoreboard?dates=20261009&limit=1000" ] } ], "scope": [ { "league": "MLB", "events": 0, "status": "OK", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.273Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.501Z" }, { "league": "MLS", "events": 0, "status": "OK", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.298Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.500Z" }, { "league": "NBA", "events": 2, "status": "OK", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.298Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.629Z" }, { "league": "NCAAF-FCS", "events": 2, "status": "OK", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.299Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.548Z" }, { "league": "NCAAF", "events": 5, "status": "OK", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.300Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.539Z" }, { "league": "NCAAM", "events": 0, "status": "OK", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.300Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.498Z" }, { "league": "NFL", "events": 0, "status": "OK", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.301Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.522Z" }, { "league": "NHL", "events": 4, "status": "OK", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.302Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.538Z" }, { "league": "UFC", "events": 0, "status": "OK", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.302Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.537Z" }, { "league": "WNBA", "events": 2, "status": "OK", "requested_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.303Z", "retrieved_utc": "2026-10-09T12:16:00.523Z" } ], "prior_market_exposure": true, "blind_trial": false, "fresh_market_inputs_used": false, "original_primary_freeze_utc": "2026-10-09T11:57:13.322Z", "original_primary_freeze_sha256": "0cb32a4e358bd71d69f1d015b72190b35f0371da7499b31b17f76123ef29a80a", "source_manifest_sha256": "33a5bb2919e48322d0df697e94d579d28917626f6ff5482bf90a670b5a5ab93c", "agreement_definitions": { "created_utc": "2026-10-09T12:18:17.956901+00:00", "tolerance": 1e-09, "engines": 3, "configurations": 4, "basis": "Registered unrounded base scores; replacement-adjusted agreement reported separately, never substituted silently", "winner": "All four nonzero home-away margin signs equal", "spread": "All four nonzero (home-away+average_signed_home_line) signs equal", "total": "All four nonzero (home+away-average_total) signs equal", "combinations": "Logical AND of component agreements for same event", "market": "Comparable full-game current main quotes; deduplicate provider; exclude elapsed event and missing/inconsistent quotes. Separate spread/total means. Single provider labeled honestly.", "no_parlay_claim": true }, "desk_completion_utc": { "Parker Fields": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00", "Uncle Sibursam": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00", "Gideon Marsh": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00", "ConstitutionOwl": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00", "Polly Ticks": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00", "Liberty Belle": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00", "Warren Bullion": "2026-10-09T12:20:41.893781+00:00" }, "collaboration": "Independent Classic, Tighten Up, and gate-review agents; parent reconciles seven separately named desks. Desks share reviewers." }