October 12 • Four-model Sports comparison

Website release: PASS

Website research, source integrity, assets and functional QA passed. Archive verification must also pass before delivery.

Ten events have all four numeric forecasts (40 rows). London–Portland lacks a comparable London baseline: Classic and Tighten Up outputs are unavailable; Primary retains its flagged zero-team-effect fallback for audit only. Full coverage has 11 events and 44 configuration records. ON/OFF intentionally share score arithmetic. Probabilities are not calibrated, and agreement is not a betting edge. No wager is published by this research report.

Scope and audit

Current personnel, defense and protection risks are retained before the score freeze. Football availability assumptions include the Palmer material-role and Moore participation branches; a confirmed OUT designation does not settle materiality. Only the separately named website publication board can designate a wager. London’s unsupported outputs and incomplete historical statistics remain explicit. It has no verified complete paired market and is excluded from website cards, forecast stories and tracker under the standing ordinary-event removal policy; all11 events remain in this research comparison. Classic/Primary retain their registered tied-final exclusion: NYG–Washington27–27 is omitted from training, not silently changed.

MLB: 2 · NFL: 1 · NBA: 5 · NHL: 3 · FBS: 0 · FCS: 0 · NCAAM: 0 · WNBA: 0 · MLS: 0 · UFC: 0 · all scope events: 11 · numeric events: 10 · partial numeric events: 1 · numeric model rows: 41 · future events: 11 · elapsed events: 0

Frozen 2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00 (1:49 AM ET). Fresh prices requested 2026-10-12T05:49:19.181251+00:00 and completed 2026-10-12T05:49:19.820551+00:00. Research cutoff 2026-10-12T05:32:16.316246+00:00. Prior market exposure is disclosed; this is not a blind trial.

SHA256 30597b66954197d2ae516c9b80f866c4bdd5f30cc48c52f24ed8151166749a2e — unchanged. Three independent agents plus parent reconciled seven named desks; desk roles share reviewers. Independent arithmetic reconstruction passed for 10 fully supported events.

Historical accuracy uses the October 11 prospective cohort with independently verified official finals, separated by sport/stage and base/adjusted branch. This one-day descriptive sample does not calibrate today’s probabilities or activate a sport.

Downloads and full evidence

All four forecasts

Each cell shows away / home, rounded to 0.5 only for display. “Adj” applies the authorized qualifying replacement scenario. Calculations use unrounded means.

Find a team Sport

11 matchups

Sport	Matchup / Eastern start	Classic	Primary	Tighten Up Conservative ON	Tighten Up Conservative OFF	Adjusted winner agreement	Home spread	Total
NHL	Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres 1:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	Buffalo Sabres	-1.5	6.50
NBA	London Lions at Portland Trail Blazers 4:00 PM ET	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	112.5 / 114.0 Adj 112.5 / 114.0	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	Engine unavailable Adj Engine unavailable	No agreement	OFF / unavailable	Unavailable
MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers 5:00 PM ET	4.5 / 4.5 Adj 4.5 / 4.5	3.5 / 3.5 Adj 3.5 / 3.5	4.5 / 4.5 Adj 4.5 / 4.5	4.5 / 4.5 Adj 4.5 / 4.5	Milwaukee Brewers	+1.5	7.00
NHL	Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils 7:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators	-1.5	5.50
NBA	Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks 7:00 PM ET	116.0 / 114.5 Adj 116.0 / 114.5	118.0 / 113.0 Adj 118.0 / 113.0	117.5 / 113.0 Adj 117.5 / 113.0	117.5 / 113.0 Adj 117.5 / 113.0	Oklahoma City Thunder	-7.5	222.50
NBA	Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards 7:00 PM ET	114.0 / 116.0 Adj 114.0 / 116.0	112.5 / 113.0 Adj 112.5 / 113.0	115.5 / 114.5 Adj 115.5 / 114.5	115.5 / 114.5 Adj 115.5 / 114.5	No agreement	-2.5	222.50
NBA	Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks 7:30 PM ET	112.5 / 117.0 Adj 112.5 / 117.0	110.0 / 115.5 Adj 110.0 / 115.5	114.0 / 115.5 Adj 114.0 / 115.5	114.0 / 115.5 Adj 114.0 / 115.5	New York Knicks	-2.5	227.50
NHL	Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild 8:00 PM ET	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	3.0 / 3.0 Adj 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild	-1.5	5.50
MLB	Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays 8:00 PM ET	4.0 / 4.5 Adj 4.0 / 4.5	3.0 / 3.5 Adj 3.0 / 3.5	4.0 / 4.5 Adj 4.0 / 4.5	4.0 / 4.5 Adj 4.0 / 4.5	Tampa Bay Rays	-1.5	6.50
NFL	Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams 8:15 PM ET	24.5 / 26.0 Adj 21.5 / 23.0	25.0 / 27.0 Adj 22.0 / 24.0	25.0 / 26.5 Adj 22.0 / 23.5	25.0 / 26.5 Adj 22.0 / 23.5	Los Angeles Rams	-3	54.50
NBA	San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz 9:00 PM ET	121.5 / 116.0 Adj 121.5 / 116.0	122.5 / 113.5 Adj 122.5 / 113.5	123.0 / 114.5 Adj 123.0 / 114.5	123.0 / 114.5 Adj 123.0 / 114.5	San Antonio Spurs	+2.5	227.50

All-four agreement

Base → adjusted counts. Four configurations share three engines; combinations are within-game directional agreement, not a parlay recommendation. Spread/total numbers are single-provider quotes where labeled, not a broad market consensus.

winner: 9 → 9spread: 9 → 9total: 9 → 9winner + spread: 8 → 8winner + total: 8 → 8spread + total: 9 → 9winner + spread + total: 8 → 8

Winner — 9 adjusted agreements

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres: winner Buffalo Sabres
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: winner Milwaukee Brewers
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils: winner Ottawa Senators
Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks: winner Oklahoma City Thunder
Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks: winner New York Knicks
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild: winner Minnesota Wild
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays: winner Tampa Bay Rays
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: winner Los Angeles Rams
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz: winner San Antonio Spurs

Spread — 9 adjusted agreements

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres: spread Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: spread Milwaukee Brewers
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils: spread Ottawa Senators
Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks: spread Oklahoma City Thunder
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards: spread Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild: spread Vegas Golden Knights
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays: spread Cleveland Guardians
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: spread Buffalo Bills
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz: spread San Antonio Spurs

Total — 9 adjusted agreements

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres: total Under
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: total Over
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils: total Over
Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks: total Over
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards: total Over
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild: total Over
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays: total Over
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: total Under
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz: total Over

Winner + Spread — 8 adjusted agreements

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres: winner Buffalo Sabres; spread Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: winner Milwaukee Brewers; spread Milwaukee Brewers
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils: winner Ottawa Senators; spread Ottawa Senators
Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks: winner Oklahoma City Thunder; spread Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild: winner Minnesota Wild; spread Vegas Golden Knights
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays: winner Tampa Bay Rays; spread Cleveland Guardians
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: winner Los Angeles Rams; spread Buffalo Bills
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz: winner San Antonio Spurs; spread San Antonio Spurs

Winner + Total — 8 adjusted agreements

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres: winner Buffalo Sabres; total Under
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: winner Milwaukee Brewers; total Over
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils: winner Ottawa Senators; total Over
Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks: winner Oklahoma City Thunder; total Over
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild: winner Minnesota Wild; total Over
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays: winner Tampa Bay Rays; total Over
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: winner Los Angeles Rams; total Under
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz: winner San Antonio Spurs; total Over

Spread + Total — 9 adjusted agreements

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres: spread Florida Panthers; total Under
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: spread Milwaukee Brewers; total Over
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils: spread Ottawa Senators; total Over
Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks: spread Oklahoma City Thunder; total Over
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards: spread Brooklyn Nets; total Over
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild: spread Vegas Golden Knights; total Over
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays: spread Cleveland Guardians; total Over
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: spread Buffalo Bills; total Under
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz: spread San Antonio Spurs; total Over

Winner + Spread + Total — 8 adjusted agreements

Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres: winner Buffalo Sabres; spread Florida Panthers; total Under
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: winner Milwaukee Brewers; spread Milwaukee Brewers; total Over
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils: winner Ottawa Senators; spread Ottawa Senators; total Over
Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks: winner Oklahoma City Thunder; spread Oklahoma City Thunder; total Over
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild: winner Minnesota Wild; spread Vegas Golden Knights; total Over
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays: winner Tampa Bay Rays; spread Cleveland Guardians; total Over
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: winner Los Angeles Rams; spread Buffalo Bills; total Under
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz: winner San Antonio Spurs; spread San Antonio Spurs; total Over

Event	Home line	Total	winner	spread	total	winner + spread	winner + total	spread + total	winner + spread + total
Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
London Lions at Portland Trail Blazers	OFF / unavailable	Unavailable	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers	+1.5	7.00	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils	-1.5	5.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks	-7.5	222.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards	-2.5	222.50	—	Yes	Yes	—	—	Yes	—
Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks	-2.5	227.50	Yes	—	—	—	—	—	—
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild	-1.5	5.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays	-1.5	6.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams	-3	54.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz	+2.5	227.50	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Game-by-game evidence

Expand a matchup for all model confidence fields, paired prices, seven desks, availability branches and gate reasoning.

NHL · Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres · 1:00 PM ET

Away: Florida Panthers · Home: Buffalo Sabres · KeyBank Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Buffalo Sabres Home margin 0.45 Total 6.17	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.05 Total: LEAN Difference -0.33	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Buffalo Sabres Home margin 0.40 Total 6.34	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.10 Total: LEAN Difference -0.16	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Buffalo Sabres Home margin 0.43 Total 6.36	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.07 Total: LEAN Difference -0.14	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Buffalo Sabres Home margin 0.43 Total 6.36	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.07 Total: LEAN Difference -0.14	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-112 / -108	+1.5 (-278) / -1.5 (+225)	6.50 — O +110 / U -130	Source 2026-10-12T05:49:19.564047+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

FLA: Official Monday preview changes the top group to Brady Tkachuk/Bennett/Matthew Tkachuk and Verhaeghe/Lafferty/Reinhart; same18 skaters as Oct10. Barkov/Marchand/Gadjovich absent from reference. Keep individual EV/PP/SH exposure but combination change is unestimated; no full healthy-player deduction. BUF: Official Monday projection returns Kulich/Helenius while Danforth/Kozak become scratches. Conditional like-for-like forward role transfer conserves EV/PP/SH skater-seconds; center Norris remains. Zucker/Timmins remain absence references; Lyon is separate goalie review.

Uncle Sibursam

Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

Independent arithmetic reviewed current nonfootball outputs; London remains outside comparable NBA history. Classic/Primary provisional; ON/OFF identical registered means. Opportunity scenarios do not supply a validated scoring conversion.

ConstitutionOwl

KeyBank Center; listed 2026-10-12T17:00Z. Official NHL gameType2 and date/venue/time matched; do not call current games preseason. NHL activation gate remains tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · London Lions at Portland Trail Blazers · 4:00 PM ET

Away: London Lions · Home: Portland Trail Blazers · Moda Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	112.5 / 114.0 Adjusted 112.5 / 114.0	Portland Trail Blazers Home margin 1.42 Total 226.57	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	Engine unavailable Adjusted Engine unavailable	No agreement Home margin Unavailable Total Unavailable	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer Unavailable Total: NO_EDGE Difference Unavailable	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

UNAVAILABLE. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
Complete market unavailable in initial snapshot. See alternate-source audit before release.

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Portland Trail Blazers: Sharpe remains absent; Oct7 rotation already excludes him. Camara and the Lillard/Morant backcourt carry the observed starting wing/creation roles, with Holiday/Henderson reserve creation. Jaylen Martin waived per Oct8 league-hosted update; his zero-minute reference excluded from eligible projection. London is a different competition, so no calibrated NBA opponent conversion is asserted. London Lions: Official current EuroCup minutes provide an auditable conditional240-minute reference. Kennedy leads18.0ppg over2games; Evans13.0 and Jones11.5. Retained London25-26 histories and incoming-player former-team bios are separate. No cross-league scoring coefficient, confirmed absence or in-season trade is invented. Complete2024-25 history and actual exhibition participation remain unavailable. No confirmed current absent/materially limited contributor or in-season trade established in official sources. Hence no identified mandatory replacement branch left unresolved; reference rotations remain tracking-only.

Uncle Sibursam

Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Moda Center; listed 2026-10-12T20:00Z. Cross-league NBA preseason exhibition, London Lions is not an NBA franchise. Official Rose Quarter confirms Oct12 1PM PDT at Moda Center; team announcement verifies international travel. No comparable incumbent NBA score baseline for London. Classic and TU unavailable; Primary unknown-team fallback must not be counted as supported numeric coverage or actionable. London official current EuroCup two-game table and prior2025-26 statistics verified by personnel desk; actual travel date, acclimatization and exhibition minutes remain unverified. No validated cross-league NBA conversion.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS / engine unavailable",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / engine unavailable"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers · 5:00 PM ET

Away: Los Angeles Dodgers · Home: Milwaukee Brewers · American Family Field. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 3.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	4.5 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.5 / 4.5	Milwaukee Brewers Home margin 0.25 Total 8.85	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.75 Total: LEAN Difference 1.85	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct11, stage 3; skips 0
Primary	3.5 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.5 / 3.5	Milwaukee Brewers Home margin 0.24 Total 7.09	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.74 Total: NO_EDGE Difference 0.09	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct11, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	4.5 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.5 / 4.5	Milwaukee Brewers Home margin 0.04 Total 8.80	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.54 Total: LEAN Difference 1.80	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct11, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	4.5 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.5 / 4.5	Milwaukee Brewers Home margin 0.04 Total 8.80	Spread: LEAN Buffer 1.54 Total: LEAN Difference 1.80	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct11, stage 3; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-136 / +113	-1.5 (+134) / +1.5 (-162)	7.00 — O +103 / U -124	Source 2026-10-12T05:49:19.553836+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Los Angeles Dodgers: October 11 actual Hernández2B reference replaces prior projected Edman; Edman/Rojas alternatives explicitly conditional. Rojas status cannot be inferred from active roster. Ohtani/Freeman remain actual starters. Game2 order unannounced; no new absence deduction supported. Milwaukee Brewers: October 11 actual VaughnDH/LaraRF branch preserved. Against right-handed Yamamoto, Yelich-for-Vaughn and Frelick-for-Lara are plausible roster-supported platoon sensitivities; not a fresh injury deduction and not confirmed order. Baseline includes mixed platoons.

Uncle Sibursam

Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. Current batting-slot opportunity and bench branches are retained in the official reference-box ledger; unannounced lineups remain conditional.

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

American Family Field; listed 2026-10-12T21:00Z. MLB championship series; season/postseason segmented. No doubleheader: N American Family Field retractable roof; current roof decision not confirmed. Dodgers and Brewers played previous evening at same park.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-12T05:35:09.368081+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-12T04:36:10+00:00; periods: number: 18; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T16:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T17:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 84; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 2; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 55; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small; shortForecast: Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 19; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T17:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T18:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 83; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 3; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 57; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/few?size=small; shortForecast: Sunny; detailedForecast: ; number: 20; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T18:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T19:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 81; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 5; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 60; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: SW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/sct?size=small; shortForecast: Partly Cloudy; detailedForecast: ; number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T19:00:00-05:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T20:00:00-05:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 78; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 15; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 18.333333333333332; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 64; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: SW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/tsra_hi,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Exterior forecast conditional on retractable roof; roof status unresolved. No numerical weather adjustment.

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.7483217592592588,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7483217592592588,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -162.0,
    "stressed_home_margin": -0.7516782407407412,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
      "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.",
      "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons.",
      "Game1 on Oct11 ET used MIL Ashby26 pitches/2IP, Uribe15/1IP, Megill19/1IP, Hall4/0.2IP. LAD used Vesia16/1IP, Phillips17/1IP and Scott9/1IP. Ashby repeating a two-inning bridge is unconfirmed; substitute innings could harm MIL run-line protection. None is declared unavailable merely from pitch count."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.846161265432098,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.846161265432098,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.0,
    "price": 103.0,
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.846161265432098,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
      "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.",
      "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons."
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.7374940679037918,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7374940679037918,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -162.0,
    "stressed_home_margin": -0.7625059320962082,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
      "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.",
      "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons.",
      "Game1 on Oct11 ET used MIL Ashby26 pitches/2IP, Uribe15/1IP, Megill19/1IP, Hall4/0.2IP. LAD used Vesia16/1IP, Phillips17/1IP and Scott9/1IP. Ashby repeating a two-inning bridge is unconfirmed; substitute innings could harm MIL run-line protection. None is declared unavailable merely from pitch count."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 0.08596331556975745,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.9140366844302426,
    "same_side_after_one_run": false,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.0,
    "price": 103.0,
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 6.0859633155697574,
    "reason": "Numerical buffer/stress fails.",
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical buffer/stress fails.",
      "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.",
      "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -162.0,
    "stressed_home_margin": -0.9598765432098766,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.",
      "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.",
      "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons.",
      "Game1 on Oct11 ET used MIL Ashby26 pitches/2IP, Uribe15/1IP, Megill19/1IP, Hall4/0.2IP. LAD used Vesia16/1IP, Phillips17/1IP and Scott9/1IP. Ashby repeating a two-inning bridge is unconfirmed; substitute innings could harm MIL run-line protection. None is declared unavailable merely from pitch count."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.799382716049383,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7993827160493829,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.0,
    "price": 103.0,
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.",
      "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.",
      "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.5401234567901234,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.5401234567901234,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Milwaukee Brewers",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -162.0,
    "stressed_home_margin": -0.9598765432098766,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
      "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.",
      "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons.",
      "Game1 on Oct11 ET used MIL Ashby26 pitches/2IP, Uribe15/1IP, Megill19/1IP, Hall4/0.2IP. LAD used Vesia16/1IP, Phillips17/1IP and Scott9/1IP. Ashby repeating a two-inning bridge is unconfirmed; substitute innings could harm MIL run-line protection. None is declared unavailable merely from pitch count."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.799382716049383,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.7993827160493829,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 7.0,
    "price": 103.0,
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.799382716049383,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
      "The frozen Tighten Up full-season team-rate engine has no starter term. Yamamoto (2026 2.53 ERA/185.0 IP; Oct6 7.0 IP/98 pitches) and Henderson (2.47 ERA/98.1 IP; Oct4 5.0 IP/72 pitches) are the official probables. Their game-specific innings mix is not the full-season staff mix. A longer effective Yamamoto outing is adverse to MIL +1.5; effective outings by both starters are adverse to Over7.",
      "MIL last actual lineup used Vaughn DH/Lara RF; Yelich/Frelick alternatives against right-handed Yamamoto remain conditional. LAD second-base reference is Enrique Hernandez with Edman/Rojas alternatives; no actual Game2 order or new injury established. The historical baseline already mixes platoons."
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Ottawa Senators · Home: New Jersey Devils · Prudential Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin -0.24 Total 6.04	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.74 Total: LEAN Difference 0.54	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin -0.30 Total 5.88	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.80 Total: LEAN Difference 0.38	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin -0.35 Total 6.09	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.85 Total: LEAN Difference 0.59	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Ottawa Senators Home margin -0.35 Total 6.09	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.85 Total: LEAN Difference 0.59	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+114 / -135	+1.5 (-225) / -1.5 (+185)	5.50 — O -125 / U +105	Source 2026-10-12T05:49:19.496784+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

OTT: Official October12 Devils preview lists Eklund/Zub/MacDermid on IR and Sanderson/Crotty day-to-day. Latest actual Oct10 role distribution already excludes them. Same-active18 branch plus Sanderson-for-Stanley and Crotty-for-Matinpalo defensive-slot return sensitivities retain offensive and PK exposure without assuming coach choice. NJD: Official October12 preview says Kovacevic removed from IR and may play one of the back-to-back games; Brown DTD, Bjugstad/Casey out. Latest actual reference includes Lombardi and Chisholm. Conditional Kovacevic-for-Chisholm and Brown-for-Lombardi role chain retained with other line labels unknown; goalie choice separately unconfirmed.

Uncle Sibursam

Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Prudential Center; listed 2026-10-12T23:00Z. Official NHL gameType2 and date/venue/time matched; do not call current games preseason. NHL activation gate remains tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Oklahoma City Thunder · Home: Atlanta Hawks · State Farm Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	116.0 / 114.5 Adjusted 116.0 / 114.5	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin -1.37 Total 230.71	Spread: LEAN Buffer -8.87 Total: LEAN Difference 8.21	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	118.0 / 113.0 Adjusted 118.0 / 113.0	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin -4.81 Total 230.75	Spread: LEAN Buffer -12.31 Total: LEAN Difference 8.25	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	117.5 / 113.0 Adjusted 117.5 / 113.0	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin -4.37 Total 230.71	Spread: LEAN Buffer -11.87 Total: LEAN Difference 8.21	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	117.5 / 113.0 Adjusted 117.5 / 113.0	Oklahoma City Thunder Home margin -4.37 Total 230.71	Spread: LEAN Buffer -11.87 Total: LEAN Difference 8.21	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+230 / -285	+7.5 (-110) / -7.5 (-110)	222.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-12T05:49:19.500796+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Atlanta Hawks: Oct10 McCollum/Daniels/Dort/Johnson/Okongwu first unit and Wiggins/Kispert reserve minutes establish observed role redistribution. Alexander-Walker, Finney-Smith, Gilbert, Gueye and Veesaar roster flags remain dated availability evidence; no current clearance inferred. September22 Finney-Smith trade and outgoing Nembhard/Hield reviewed on both sides. Oklahoma City Thunder: League-hosted Oct10 update says regulars will not travel to Atlanta; Sorber knee, Topic back and Holmgren quadriceps remain distinct medical limitations. Remove the listed nontraveling regulars from Oct7 observed rotation and proportionally distribute minutes/shots/creation to demonstrated participating reserves. This is an analyst sensitivity, not a coach plan. First back-to-back game cannot be modeled as a normal starter rotation.

Uncle Sibursam

Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

State Farm Arena; listed 2026-10-12T23:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule confirms Oct12 opponent, venue, tip time and preseason stage. Rotation volatility; NBA remains tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards · 7:00 PM ET

Away: Brooklyn Nets · Home: Washington Wizards · Capital One Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	114.0 / 116.0 Adjusted 114.0 / 116.0	Washington Wizards Home margin 2.01 Total 229.81	Spread: LEAN Buffer -0.49 Total: LEAN Difference 7.31	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	112.5 / 113.0 Adjusted 112.5 / 113.0	Washington Wizards Home margin 0.26 Total 225.64	Spread: LEAN Buffer -2.24 Total: LEAN Difference 3.14	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	115.5 / 114.5 Adjusted 115.5 / 114.5	Brooklyn Nets Home margin -0.99 Total 229.81	Spread: LEAN Buffer -3.49 Total: LEAN Difference 7.31	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	115.5 / 114.5 Adjusted 115.5 / 114.5	Brooklyn Nets Home margin -0.99 Total 229.81	Spread: LEAN Buffer -3.49 Total: LEAN Difference 7.31	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+120 / -142	+2.5 (-105) / -2.5 (-115)	222.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-12T05:49:19.505578+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Washington Wizards: Latest actual starting unit Davis/Dybantsa/George/Sarr/Young; Mann/Middleton/Vukcevic/Watkins did not play. Current roster injury timestamps are retained, separate from box COACH decision labels. Beekman/Carrington and Riley/Johnson carry observed reserve creation and shots. Unannounced returns remain conditional. Brooklyn Nets: League-hosted Oct9 report explicitly identifies Clowney starting for Porter wrist absence and Wagner/Wolf covering center roles around Sharpe. Current health flags for Brown/Jefferson/Porter/Sharpe are dated. Replay retains observed redistribution; return sensitivities use previous actual current-preseason roles where available.

Uncle Sibursam

Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Capital One Arena; listed 2026-10-12T23:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule confirms Oct12 opponent, venue, tip time and preseason stage. Rotation volatility; NBA remains tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks · 7:30 PM ET

Away: Minnesota Timberwolves · Home: New York Knicks · Madison Square Garden. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	112.5 / 117.0 Adjusted 112.5 / 117.0	New York Knicks Home margin 4.52 Total 229.67	Spread: LEAN Buffer 2.02 Total: LEAN Difference 2.17	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	110.0 / 115.5 Adjusted 110.0 / 115.5	New York Knicks Home margin 5.27 Total 225.66	Spread: LEAN Buffer 2.77 Total: LEAN Difference -1.84	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	114.0 / 115.5 Adjusted 114.0 / 115.5	New York Knicks Home margin 1.49 Total 229.61	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.01 Total: LEAN Difference 2.11	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	114.0 / 115.5 Adjusted 114.0 / 115.5	New York Knicks Home margin 1.49 Total 229.61	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.01 Total: LEAN Difference 2.11	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+120 / -142	+2.5 (-105) / -2.5 (-115)	227.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-12T05:49:19.723012+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

New York Knicks: Latest first unit Anunoby/Towns/Hart/Bridges/Brunson remains observed reference; reserve guard minutes belong to McBride/Kolek/Alvarado/Shamet/Clarkson/Brown. Agbaji/Bradley/Eubanks/McCullar zero-minute DNPs stay distinct from confirmed October12 absences. No established fresh starter loss. Minnesota Timberwolves: League-hosted Oct11 report confirms previous game rested starting five and Dosunmu; those DTD labels do not establish injuries. Last observed bench-first rotation is one scenario. Earlier current-preseason full-team rotations are alternative return scenarios. DiVincenzo remains separately listed Out; no automatic deduction or healthy-baseline assumption.

Uncle Sibursam

Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Madison Square Garden; listed 2026-10-12T23:30Z. Official NBA home-team schedule confirms Oct12 opponent, venue, tip time and preseason stage. Rotation volatility; NBA remains tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Vegas Golden Knights · Home: Minnesota Wild · Grand Casino Arena. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild Home margin 0.23 Total 6.10	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.27 Total: LEAN Difference 0.60	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild Home margin 0.11 Total 6.22	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.39 Total: LEAN Difference 0.72	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild Home margin 0.07 Total 6.15	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.43 Total: LEAN Difference 0.65	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	3.0 / 3.0 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.0	Minnesota Wild Home margin 0.07 Total 6.15	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.43 Total: LEAN Difference 0.65	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 2/3; 95% Wilson 20.8–93.9%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-102 / -118	+1.5 (-258) / -1.5 (+210)	5.50 — O -130 / U +110	Source 2026-10-12T05:49:19.727714+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

VGK: Official Oct10 preview has Olofsson injured and Lavoie with Connelly/Hertl. Latest actual18 already reflect that absence. Monday same-active-skater branch retains observed workload; prior Olofsson return scenario is a sensitivity only, not current clearance. No new line or PP-unit labels inferred. MIN: Official Oct10 preview lists Marcus/Nick Foligno and Faber absent, Gustavsson separate goalie issue. Latest actual includes Lorenz and Spacek, superseding projected Bogosian. Same-active18 branch already includes replacements; Marcus Foligno return-for-Lorenz sensitivity and defensive depth branches retained without inventing current availability.

Uncle Sibursam

Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NHL even-strength/power-play/short-handed exposure is retained separately.

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Grand Casino Arena; listed 2026-10-13T00:00Z. Official NHL gameType2 and date/venue/time matched; do not call current games preseason. NHL activation gate remains tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays · 8:00 PM ET

Away: Cleveland Guardians · Home: Tampa Bay Rays · Tropicana Field. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 3.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	4.0 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.0 / 4.5	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin 0.41 Total 8.41	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.09 Total: LEAN Difference 1.91	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct11, stage 3; skips 0
Primary	3.0 / 3.5 Adjusted 3.0 / 3.5	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin 0.43 Total 6.68	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.07 Total: NO_EDGE Difference 0.18	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct11, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	4.0 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.0 / 4.5	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin 0.23 Total 8.43	Spread: NO_EDGE Buffer -1.27 Total: LEAN Difference 1.93	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct11, stage 3; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	4.0 / 4.5 Adjusted 4.0 / 4.5	Tampa Bay Rays Home margin 0.23 Total 8.43	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.27 Total: LEAN Difference 1.93	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 1/1; 95% Wilson 20.7–100.0%; Oct11, stage 3; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+142 / -172	+1.5 (-157) / -1.5 (+130)	6.50 — O -122 / U +101	Source 2026-10-12T05:49:19.803059+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Cleveland Guardians: Official preview projects HalpinCF over Martínez after ALDS performance; quantify eighth-slot PA with separate 2024/2025/2026 histories. No injury of note reported; performance selection differs from absence. Retain Martinez alternative. Tampa Bay Rays: Updated official preview with Griffin confirmed left-hander projects ViladeRF, MesaLF and Simpson bench. Compare this exact chain and Simpson return branch using affected PA. McClanahan season-ending absence belongs pitching, not hitter overlay.

Uncle Sibursam

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Tropicana Field; listed 2026-10-13T00:00Z. MLB championship series; season/postseason segmented. No doubleheader: N

Polly Ticks

assessment: Tropicana Field fixed roof: no direct exterior weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.0868441358024694,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.08684413580246941,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Cleveland Guardians",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -157.0,
    "stressed_home_margin": 1.4131558641975306,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
      "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.",
      "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine.",
      "CLE preview records27 bullpen innings in postseason; Oct10 ET Smith27pitches/1.2IP and Gaddis24/1.1IP followed Oct8 workloads Smith31 and Gaddis16. Oct11 was an off day, so neither is assumed unavailable. TB had no appearances in the captured last3calendar-day window after the sweep; rested relief may sustain a low Cleveland score. CLE needing another long bridge threatens +1.5; weaker CLE relief can raise, not lower, the total."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.9087577160493812,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9087577160493812,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 6.5,
    "price": -122.0,
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.408757716049381,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
      "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.",
      "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine."
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.0690749336080665,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.06907493360806649,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Cleveland Guardians",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -157.0,
    "stressed_home_margin": 1.4309250663919335,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
      "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.",
      "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine.",
      "CLE preview records27 bullpen innings in postseason; Oct10 ET Smith27pitches/1.2IP and Gaddis24/1.1IP followed Oct8 workloads Smith31 and Gaddis16. Oct11 was an off day, so neither is assumed unavailable. TB had no appearances in the captured last3calendar-day window after the sweep; rested relief may sustain a low Cleveland score. CLE needing another long bridge threatens +1.5; weaker CLE relief can raise, not lower, the total."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 0.17847705106306044,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": -0.8215229489369396,
    "same_side_after_one_run": false,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 6.5,
    "price": -122.0,
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 5.67847705106306,
    "reason": "Numerical buffer/stress fails.",
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical buffer/stress fails.",
      "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.",
      "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.268518518518519,
    "base_floor_met": false,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.26851851851851904,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": false,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "NO_EDGE",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Cleveland Guardians",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -157.0,
    "stressed_home_margin": 1.231481481481481,
    "reason": "Numerical buffer/stress fails.",
    "state": "NO_EDGE",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical buffer/stress fails.",
      "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.",
      "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine.",
      "CLE preview records27 bullpen innings in postseason; Oct10 ET Smith27pitches/1.2IP and Gaddis24/1.1IP followed Oct8 workloads Smith31 and Gaddis16. Oct11 was an off day, so neither is assumed unavailable. TB had no appearances in the captured last3calendar-day window after the sweep; rested relief may sustain a low Cleveland score. CLE needing another long bridge threatens +1.5; weaker CLE relief can raise, not lower, the total."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.5,
    "base_buffer": 1.9290123456790127,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9290123456790127,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 6.5,
    "price": -122.0,
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but unresolved medium availability/lineup risk forbids Conservative ON promotion; combined event-specific robustness is also unverified.",
      "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.",
      "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine."
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.268518518518519,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.26851851851851904,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Cleveland Guardians",
    "line": 1.5,
    "price": -157.0,
    "stressed_home_margin": 1.231481481481481,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
      "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.",
      "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine.",
      "CLE preview records27 bullpen innings in postseason; Oct10 ET Smith27pitches/1.2IP and Gaddis24/1.1IP followed Oct8 workloads Smith31 and Gaddis16. Oct11 was an off day, so neither is assumed unavailable. TB had no appearances in the captured last3calendar-day window after the sweep; rested relief may sustain a low Cleveland score. CLE needing another long bridge threatens +1.5; weaker CLE relief can raise, not lower, the total."
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "minimum_base_buffer": 1.0,
    "base_buffer": 1.9290123456790127,
    "base_floor_met": true,
    "mandatory_adverse_runs": 1.0,
    "stressed_buffer_one_run_only": 0.9290123456790127,
    "same_side_after_one_run": true,
    "price_strictly_better_than_minus400": true,
    "numeric_only_gate_pass": true,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_runs": null,
    "combined_event_specific_stress_pass": null,
    "combined_stress_status": "NOT_CERTIFIED; no supported bound on the documented starter/lineup/bullpen branches",
    "final_state": "LEAN",
    "production_decision": "PASS",
    "promotion_allowed": false,
    "selection": "Over",
    "line": 6.5,
    "price": -122.0,
    "stressed_total_one_run_only": 7.429012345679013,
    "reason": "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Numerical gates pass, but required combined starter/lineup/bullpen robustness has not been demonstrated; do not equate generic one-run survival with full eligibility.",
      "Rasmussen (2026 2.67 ERA/172IP) last worked eight shutout innings/101 pitches Oct3; Griffin last worked2.2IP Oct7. Griffin current-year team splits are Washington3.06ERA/129.1IP and Cleveland5.19ERA/43.1IP, combined3.60ERA/172.2IP: splits and total are not added. A longer effective Rasmussen outing suppresses CLE scoring and is adverse to CLE+1.5 and Over6.5. Effective Griffin innings could also suppress the total, while short/ineffective Griffin innings harm CLE side but can help Over.",
      "Official preview projects CLE Halpin over Angel Martinez after ALDS performance, not injury. TB projected ViladeRF/MesaLF and Simpson bench against left-handed Griffin is a handedness/late-game chain; projected order is not a confirmed nine."
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NFL · Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams · 8:15 PM ET

Away: Buffalo Bills · Home: Los Angeles Rams · SoFi Stadium. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 2.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	24.5 / 26.0 Adjusted 21.5 / 23.0	Los Angeles Rams Home margin 1.59 Total 44.28	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.41 Total: LEAN Difference -10.22	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 9/12; 95% Wilson 46.8–91.1%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 1
Primary	25.0 / 27.0 Adjusted 22.0 / 24.0	Los Angeles Rams Home margin 1.72 Total 45.97	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.28 Total: LEAN Difference -8.53	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 11/12; 95% Wilson 64.6–98.5%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 1
Tighten Up Conservative ON	25.0 / 26.5 Adjusted 22.0 / 23.5	Los Angeles Rams Home margin 1.24 Total 45.45	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.76 Total: LEAN Difference -9.05	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 8/12; 95% Wilson 39.1–86.2%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 1
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	25.0 / 26.5 Adjusted 22.0 / 23.5	Los Angeles Rams Home margin 1.24 Total 45.45	Spread: LEAN Buffer -1.76 Total: LEAN Difference -9.05	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 8/12; 95% Wilson 39.1–86.2%; Oct11, stage 2; skips 1

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	+145 / -175	+3 (+100) / -3 (-120)	54.50 — O -115 / U -105	Source 2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Buffalo Bills: Joshua Palmer confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role; 2024 LAC65targets/15games; 2025 BUF37/12; current9/4 with0starts and2TD. Official coach assigns Palmer plays to Bell. Treat planned receiving package as qualifying material-role sensitivity; because he is fourth WR with2.25targets/game, retain a support-only branch with no automatic -3. Exact routes unverified.; DJ Moore conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT; Current starter with20targets/4games versus Chicago140/17 in2024 and85/17 in2025. Bell practiced Moore plays, but if Moore and Palmer are absent the same Bell/other receiver pool absorbs both. Preserve separate-player endpoint only assuming distinct displaced targets; passing-drive overlap is default. Los Angeles Rams: Terrance Ferguson confirmed unavailable: IR October2; Receiving TE started3/3games,12targets/7catches/63yards/1TD current, versus25targets/14games and3starts2025. Four targets/game exceeds current Parkinson2.0 and Allen1.75; Higbee4.75. Qualifies as primary receiving option in multi-TE attack despite IR moving him down vendor depth. Official current chart has Parkinson and Allen/Higbee; returning Parkinson, Higbee and Allen share lost receiving role. No exact share invented.

Uncle Sibursam

Buffalo Bills: 4 current games, offensive 2.953 points/drive against opponent defensive 1.750; 10.875 expected drives. Los Angeles Rams: 4 current games, offensive 1.809 points/drive against opponent defensive 2.488; 11.250 expected drives. Approved 37.5% prior / 62.5% current override; other volatile rates receive no arbitrary bonus.

Gideon Marsh

Independent baseline arithmetic PASS across all four configurations; explicit isolated/joint -3 scenarios and zero unchanged-opponent deltas. Defense and protection risks retained.

ConstitutionOwl

SoFi Stadium; listed 2026-10-13T00:15Z. Official Rams site confirms Monday Oct12 5:15PM PDT / 8:15PM EDT at SoFi. Bills last played Oct4 at home; Rams last played Oct4 at Philadelphia. Eight calendar days between starts; Bills cross three US time zones westward, Rams return home from Philadelphia. Actual travel itinerary not assumed. SoFi has covered field with open sides; exterior rain is not direct on-field rain.

Polly Ticks

retrieved_utc: 2026-10-12T05:35:09.395083+00:00; updateTime: 2026-10-11T20:41:44+00:00; periods: number: 21; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T17:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T18:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: True; temperature: 64; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 18; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 12.777777777777779; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 72; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: WSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/day/rain_showers,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; number: 22; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T18:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T19:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 62; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 18; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 12.222222222222221; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 75; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: WSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; number: 23; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T19:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T20:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 62; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 18; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 12.777777777777779; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 78; windSpeed: 10 mph; windDirection: WSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; number: 24; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T20:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T21:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 62; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 18; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 13.333333333333334; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 81; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; number: 25; name: ; startTime: 2026-10-12T21:00:00-07:00; endTime: 2026-10-12T22:00:00-07:00; isDaytime: False; temperature: 62; temperatureUnit: F; temperatureTrend: None; probabilityOfPrecipitation: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 18; dewpoint: unitCode: wmoUnit:degC; value: 13.88888888888889; relativeHumidity: unitCode: wmoUnit:percent; value: 84; windSpeed: 5 mph; windDirection: WSW; icon: https://api.weather.gov/icons/land/night/rain_showers,20?size=small; shortForecast: Slight Chance Rain Showers; detailedForecast: ; interpretation: Exterior hourly NWS forecast including kickoff-overlapping hour. SoFi roof limits direct rain; open sides can admit ambient conditions. No unsupported score coefficient.; stadium_source: https://www.sofistadium.com/plan-your-visit/a-z-guide

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / provisional model",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / provisional model"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872994",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "market": "spread",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": 3.0,
    "price": 100.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 1.7606358534105127,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487,
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "score": [
          19.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
      },
      {
        "score": [
          22.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": 1.7606358534105127,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.2393641465894873
      },
      {
        "score": [
          25.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": 4.760635853410513,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.7606358534105127
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer below required floor",
      "At least one role/availability branch below required floor",
      "Required adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "2 unresolved high risk(s)",
      "3 unresolved medium risks",
      "ON excludes unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "pick": "Buffalo Bills +3",
    "matchup": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "base_score": [
      25.10583479394665,
      26.345198940536136
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      22.10583479394665,
      23.345198940536136
    ],
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00",
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "calibration": "No selected-market or exact-score probability inferred from point cushions.",
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -4.239364146589487,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          19.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.2393641465894873,
        "adverse_score": [
          19.10583479394665,
          26.345198940536136
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.2393641465894873,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            26.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.7606358534105127,
          "adverse_score": [
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            26.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.2393641465894873
        },
        {
          "score": [
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          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.760635853410513,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            26.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.7606358534105127
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Selected opponent +3 for every spread case, same adverse margin swing not counted twice",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selected side evaluated across all Palmer role and Moore availability overlap endpoints; failure does not promote opposite side."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability",
        "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation",
        "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Rams pressure unit change",
        "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability",
        "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches",
        "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen case fails registered adverse test"
      }
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872994",
    "configuration": "ON",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "market": "total",
    "selection_side": "under",
    "line": 54.5,
    "price": -105.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 9.048966265517215,
    "required_buffer": 5,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.048966265517215,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154,
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "score": [
          19.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": 12.048966265517215,
        "stressed_buffer": 9.048966265517215
      },
      {
        "score": [
          22.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": 9.048966265517215,
        "stressed_buffer": 6.048966265517215
      },
      {
        "score": [
          25.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": 6.048966265517215,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "1 unresolved high risk(s)",
      "3 unresolved medium risks",
      "ON excludes unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "pick": "Under 54.5",
    "matchup": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "base_score": [
      25.10583479394665,
      26.345198940536136
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      22.10583479394665,
      23.345198940536136
    ],
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.048966265517215,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00",
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "calibration": "No selected-market or exact-score probability inferred from point cushions.",
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 3.0489662655172154,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          25.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.048966265517215,
        "adverse_score": [
          28.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.048966265517215,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 9.048966265517215
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.048966265517215,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 6.048966265517215
        },
        {
          "score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.048966265517215,
          "adverse_score": [
            28.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Selected opponent +3 for every spread case, same adverse margin swing not counted twice",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selected side evaluated across all Palmer role and Moore availability overlap endpoints; failure does not promote opposite side."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability",
        "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation",
        "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Rams pressure unit change",
        "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability",
        "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches",
        "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All frozen cases and registered3point adverse survive"
      }
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "event_id": "401872994",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "market": "spread",
    "selection_side": "away",
    "line": 3.0,
    "price": 100.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 1.7606358534105127,
    "required_buffer": 3,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487,
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "score": [
          19.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
        "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
      },
      {
        "score": [
          22.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": 1.7606358534105127,
        "stressed_buffer": -1.2393641465894873
      },
      {
        "score": [
          25.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": 4.760635853410513,
        "stressed_buffer": 1.7606358534105127
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 2,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "Canonical buffer below required floor",
      "At least one role/availability branch below required floor",
      "Required adverse test fails in at least one branch",
      "2 unresolved high risk(s)",
      "3 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "pick": "Buffalo Bills +3",
    "matchup": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "base_score": [
      25.10583479394665,
      26.345198940536136
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      22.10583479394665,
      23.345198940536136
    ],
    "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00",
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "calibration": "No selected-market or exact-score probability inferred from point cushions.",
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": null,
      "same_side_every_case": false,
      "worst_buffer": -4.239364146589487,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          19.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.2393641465894873,
        "adverse_score": [
          19.10583479394665,
          26.345198940536136
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.2393641465894873,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            26.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.7606358534105127,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            26.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -1.2393641465894873
        },
        {
          "score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.760635853410513,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            26.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 1.7606358534105127
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Selected opponent +3 for every spread case, same adverse margin swing not counted twice",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selected side evaluated across all Palmer role and Moore availability overlap endpoints; failure does not promote opposite side."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability",
        "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation",
        "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Rams pressure unit change",
        "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability",
        "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches",
        "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false,
        "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen case fails registered adverse test"
      }
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "event_id": "401872994",
    "configuration": "OFF",
    "provider": "DraftKings",
    "quote_index": 0,
    "market": "total",
    "selection_side": "under",
    "line": 54.5,
    "price": -105.0,
    "canonical_buffer": 9.048966265517215,
    "required_buffer": 4,
    "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.048966265517215,
    "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154,
    "all_cases": [
      {
        "score": [
          19.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": 12.048966265517215,
        "stressed_buffer": 9.048966265517215
      },
      {
        "score": [
          22.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": 9.048966265517215,
        "stressed_buffer": 6.048966265517215
      },
      {
        "score": [
          25.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "buffer": 6.048966265517215,
        "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
      }
    ],
    "unresolved_high": 1,
    "unresolved_medium": 3,
    "decision": "PASS",
    "reasons": [
      "1 unresolved high risk(s)",
      "3 unresolved medium risks"
    ],
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
    "pick": "Under 54.5",
    "matchup": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams",
    "state": "LEAN",
    "base_score": [
      25.10583479394665,
      26.345198940536136
    ],
    "adjusted_score": [
      22.10583479394665,
      23.345198940536136
    ],
    "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.048966265517215,
    "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994",
    "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00",
    "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00",
    "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
    "second_review_completed": true,
    "calibration": "No selected-market or exact-score probability inferred from point cushions.",
    "stress": {
      "adverse_points": 3,
      "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
      "same_side_every_case": true,
      "worst_buffer": 3.0489662655172154,
      "worst_case": {
        "score": [
          25.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.048966265517215,
        "adverse_score": [
          28.10583479394665,
          23.345198940536136
        ],
        "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
      },
      "scenario_count": 3,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.048966265517215,
          "adverse_score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 9.048966265517215
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.048966265517215,
          "adverse_score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 6.048966265517215
        },
        {
          "score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.048966265517215,
          "adverse_score": [
            28.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
        }
      ],
      "opponent_offense_check": "Selected opponent +3 for every spread case, same adverse margin swing not counted twice",
      "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selected side evaluated across all Palmer role and Moore availability overlap endpoints; failure does not promote opposite side."
    },
    "risk_register": [
      {
        "severity": "HIGH",
        "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability",
        "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation",
        "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Rams pressure unit change",
        "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "MEDIUM",
        "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability",
        "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": false
      },
      {
        "severity": "LOW",
        "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches",
        "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.",
        "markets": [
          "spread",
          "total"
        ],
        "resolved": true,
        "gate_evidence": "All frozen cases and registered3point adverse survive"
      }
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

Classic

Conditional joint 21.5 / 23.0

Joshua Palmer: confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role; isolated 21.5 / 26.0; other team production 21.5 / 23.0
DJ Moore: conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT; isolated 21.5 / 26.0; other team production 21.5 / 23.0
Terrance Ferguson: confirmed unavailable: IR October2; isolated 24.5 / 23.0; other team production 21.5 / 23.0

Primary

Conditional joint 22.0 / 24.0

Joshua Palmer: confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role; isolated 22.0 / 27.0; other team production 22.0 / 24.0
DJ Moore: conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT; isolated 22.0 / 27.0; other team production 22.0 / 24.0
Terrance Ferguson: confirmed unavailable: IR October2; isolated 25.0 / 24.0; other team production 22.0 / 24.0

Tighten Up Conservative ON

Conditional joint 22.0 / 23.5

Joshua Palmer: confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role; isolated 22.0 / 26.5; other team production 22.0 / 23.5
DJ Moore: conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT; isolated 22.0 / 26.5; other team production 22.0 / 23.5
Terrance Ferguson: confirmed unavailable: IR October2; isolated 25.0 / 23.5; other team production 22.0 / 23.5

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

Conditional joint 22.0 / 23.5

Joshua Palmer: confirmed unavailable; deduction conditional on material receiving role; isolated 22.0 / 26.5; other team production 22.0 / 23.5
DJ Moore: conditional unavailable or materially limited; QUESTIONABLE not OUT; isolated 22.0 / 26.5; other team production 22.0 / 23.5
Terrance Ferguson: confirmed unavailable: IR October2; isolated 25.0 / 23.5; other team production 22.0 / 23.5

Sporting sources

Back to comparison

NBA · San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz · 9:00 PM ET

Away: San Antonio Spurs · Home: Utah Jazz · Delta Center. Scores below are projected means, away / home. Stage 1.

Model	Projected score	Adjusted outcome	Side / total	Selected-market probability	Exact-score probability	Historical winner accuracy
Classic	121.5 / 116.0 Adjusted 121.5 / 116.0	San Antonio Spurs Home margin -5.25 Total 237.51	Spread: LEAN Buffer -2.75 Total: LEAN Difference 10.01	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Primary	122.5 / 113.5 Adjusted 122.5 / 113.5	San Antonio Spurs Home margin -9.13 Total 235.99	Spread: LEAN Buffer -6.63 Total: LEAN Difference 8.49	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative ON	123.0 / 114.5 Adjusted 123.0 / 114.5	San Antonio Spurs Home margin -8.37 Total 237.47	Spread: LEAN Buffer -5.87 Total: LEAN Difference 9.97	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0
Tighten Up Conservative OFF	123.0 / 114.5 Adjusted 123.0 / 114.5	San Antonio Spurs Home margin -8.37 Total 237.47	Spread: LEAN Buffer -5.87 Total: LEAN Difference 9.97	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Unavailable / Not calibrated	Winner 3/3; 95% Wilson 43.9–100.0%; Oct11, stage 1; skips 0

Captured market

SINGLE-PROVIDER QUOTE; not a broad market consensus. Moneyline forecasts require a validated model distribution. Prices exactly −400 or worse are excluded from recommendations.

Provider	Moneyline away / home	Spread away / home	Total	Evidence
DraftKings	-135 / +114	-2.5 (-110) / +2.5 (-110)	227.50 — O -110 / U -110	Source 2026-10-12T05:49:19.757313+00:00

Seven-desk findings

Parker Fields

Utah Jazz: Nurkic foot absence and Filipowski back-surgery rehabilitation are supported by league-hosted updates; Jackson center share plus Hayes/Bamba describe replacement chain. Markkanen/Sensabaugh prior inactivity not taken as current confirmed absence. Current observed guard creation goes through George/Peterson/Collier. San Antonio Spurs: Fox/Harris/Quaintance/Malik Williams flags are retained with dates. Latest actual Castle/Harper creation and Wembanyama frontcourt reference plus Kornet/Reed/Brown reserves is conditional; no PPG subtraction for absent players. Last actual full rotations provide return branches where available.

Uncle Sibursam

Prior two seasons, current regular season and preseason are separated in the opportunity ledger. NBA preseason rotations are conditional reference allocations, not confirmed minutes.

Gideon Marsh

ConstitutionOwl

Delta Center; listed 2026-10-13T01:00Z. Official NBA home-team schedule confirms Oct12 opponent, venue, tip time and preseason stage. Rotation volatility; NBA remains tracking-only.

Polly Ticks

assessment: Indoor arena; no direct weather adjustment.; numerical_adjustment: None

Liberty Belle

Sporting allowlist used; no fresh current-day prices requested before freeze. Earlier incidental/historical market exposure disclosed; not a blind trial.

Warren Bullion

Keep model disagreement and all applicable replacement branches. Separate side and total gates follow after freeze. Unresolved high risk forces PASS; no quota filled.

Market gates and stress evidence

Classic

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Primary

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative ON

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Tighten Up Conservative OFF

{
  "spread": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  },
  "total": {
    "state": "LEAN",
    "decision": "PASS / tracking only",
    "reasons": [
      "PASS / tracking only"
    ]
  }
}

Replacement scenarios

No qualifying football human deduction. Other-sport effects are separately reviewed and unestimated; no football −3 is transferred.

Sporting sources

Back to comparison