{
  "created_utc": "2026-10-12T05:50:16.465934+00:00",
  "freeze_sha256": "30597b66954197d2ae516c9b80f866c4bdd5f30cc48c52f24ed8151166749a2e",
  "freeze_unchanged": true,
  "quote_path": "C:\\Users\\Owner\\Documents\\EmilyCarter\\output\\FrontPageCrew-Sports-2026-10-12-Research\\market-snapshot.json",
  "price_requested_by_agent": false,
  "reviewer": "Independent football desk",
  "decisions_detail": [
    {
      "event_id": "401872994",
      "configuration": "OFF",
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "quote_index": 0,
      "market": "spread",
      "selection_side": "away",
      "line": 3.0,
      "price": 100.0,
      "canonical_buffer": 1.7606358534105127,
      "required_buffer": 3,
      "minimum_branch_buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
      "worst_stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": 1.7606358534105127,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.2393641465894873
        },
        {
          "score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": 4.760635853410513,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.7606358534105127
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 3,
      "decision": "PASS",
      "reasons": [
        "Canonical buffer below required floor",
        "At least one role/availability branch below required floor",
        "Required adverse test fails in at least one branch",
        "2 unresolved high risk(s)",
        "3 unresolved medium risks"
      ],
      "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
      "pick": "Buffalo Bills +3",
      "matchup": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams",
      "state": "LEAN",
      "base_score": [
        25.10583479394665,
        26.345198940536136
      ],
      "adjusted_score": [
        22.10583479394665,
        23.345198940536136
      ],
      "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
      "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994",
      "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00",
      "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00",
      "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
      "second_review_completed": true,
      "calibration": "No selected-market or exact-score probability inferred from point cushions.",
      "stress": {
        "adverse_points": 3,
        "minimum_total_buffer": null,
        "same_side_every_case": false,
        "worst_buffer": -4.239364146589487,
        "worst_case": {
          "score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.2393641465894873,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            26.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
        },
        "scenario_count": 3,
        "all_cases": [
          {
            "score": [
              19.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.2393641465894873,
            "adverse_score": [
              19.10583479394665,
              26.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
          },
          {
            "score": [
              22.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.7606358534105127,
            "adverse_score": [
              22.10583479394665,
              26.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": -1.2393641465894873
          },
          {
            "score": [
              25.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.760635853410513,
            "adverse_score": [
              25.10583479394665,
              26.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": 1.7606358534105127
          }
        ],
        "opponent_offense_check": "Selected opponent +3 for every spread case, same adverse margin swing not counted twice",
        "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selected side evaluated across all Palmer role and Moore availability overlap endpoints; failure does not promote opposite side."
      },
      "risk_register": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability",
          "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation",
          "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Rams pressure unit change",
          "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability",
          "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches",
          "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false,
          "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen case fails registered adverse test"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401872994",
      "configuration": "OFF",
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "quote_index": 0,
      "market": "total",
      "selection_side": "under",
      "line": 54.5,
      "price": -105.0,
      "canonical_buffer": 9.048966265517215,
      "required_buffer": 4,
      "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.048966265517215,
      "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": 12.048966265517215,
          "stressed_buffer": 9.048966265517215
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": 9.048966265517215,
          "stressed_buffer": 6.048966265517215
        },
        {
          "score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": 6.048966265517215,
          "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 3,
      "decision": "PASS",
      "reasons": [
        "1 unresolved high risk(s)",
        "3 unresolved medium risks"
      ],
      "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
      "pick": "Under 54.5",
      "matchup": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams",
      "state": "LEAN",
      "base_score": [
        25.10583479394665,
        26.345198940536136
      ],
      "adjusted_score": [
        22.10583479394665,
        23.345198940536136
      ],
      "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.048966265517215,
      "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994",
      "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00",
      "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00",
      "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
      "second_review_completed": true,
      "calibration": "No selected-market or exact-score probability inferred from point cushions.",
      "stress": {
        "adverse_points": 3,
        "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
        "same_side_every_case": true,
        "worst_buffer": 3.0489662655172154,
        "worst_case": {
          "score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.048966265517215,
          "adverse_score": [
            28.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
        },
        "scenario_count": 3,
        "all_cases": [
          {
            "score": [
              19.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.048966265517215,
            "adverse_score": [
              22.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": 9.048966265517215
          },
          {
            "score": [
              22.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.048966265517215,
            "adverse_score": [
              25.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": 6.048966265517215
          },
          {
            "score": [
              25.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.048966265517215,
            "adverse_score": [
              28.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
          }
        ],
        "opponent_offense_check": "Selected opponent +3 for every spread case, same adverse margin swing not counted twice",
        "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selected side evaluated across all Palmer role and Moore availability overlap endpoints; failure does not promote opposite side."
      },
      "risk_register": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability",
          "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation",
          "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Rams pressure unit change",
          "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability",
          "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "LOW",
          "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches",
          "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": true,
          "gate_evidence": "All frozen cases and registered3point adverse survive"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401872994",
      "configuration": "ON",
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "quote_index": 0,
      "market": "spread",
      "selection_side": "away",
      "line": 3.0,
      "price": 100.0,
      "canonical_buffer": 1.7606358534105127,
      "required_buffer": 4,
      "minimum_branch_buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
      "worst_stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
          "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": 1.7606358534105127,
          "stressed_buffer": -1.2393641465894873
        },
        {
          "score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": 4.760635853410513,
          "stressed_buffer": 1.7606358534105127
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 2,
      "unresolved_medium": 3,
      "decision": "PASS",
      "reasons": [
        "Canonical buffer below required floor",
        "At least one role/availability branch below required floor",
        "Required adverse test fails in at least one branch",
        "2 unresolved high risk(s)",
        "3 unresolved medium risks",
        "ON excludes unresolved medium risks"
      ],
      "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
      "pick": "Buffalo Bills +3",
      "matchup": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams",
      "state": "LEAN",
      "base_score": [
        25.10583479394665,
        26.345198940536136
      ],
      "adjusted_score": [
        22.10583479394665,
        23.345198940536136
      ],
      "worst_applicable_buffer": -1.2393641465894873,
      "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994",
      "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00",
      "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00",
      "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
      "second_review_completed": true,
      "calibration": "No selected-market or exact-score probability inferred from point cushions.",
      "stress": {
        "adverse_points": 3,
        "minimum_total_buffer": null,
        "same_side_every_case": false,
        "worst_buffer": -4.239364146589487,
        "worst_case": {
          "score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.2393641465894873,
          "adverse_score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            26.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
        },
        "scenario_count": 3,
        "all_cases": [
          {
            "score": [
              19.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": -1.2393641465894873,
            "adverse_score": [
              19.10583479394665,
              26.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": -4.239364146589487
          },
          {
            "score": [
              22.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 1.7606358534105127,
            "adverse_score": [
              22.10583479394665,
              26.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": -1.2393641465894873
          },
          {
            "score": [
              25.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 4.760635853410513,
            "adverse_score": [
              25.10583479394665,
              26.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": 1.7606358534105127
          }
        ],
        "opponent_offense_check": "Selected opponent +3 for every spread case, same adverse margin swing not counted twice",
        "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selected side evaluated across all Palmer role and Moore availability overlap endpoints; failure does not promote opposite side."
      },
      "risk_register": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability",
          "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation",
          "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Rams pressure unit change",
          "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability",
          "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches",
          "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false,
          "gate_evidence": "At least one frozen case fails registered adverse test"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "event_id": "401872994",
      "configuration": "ON",
      "provider": "DraftKings",
      "quote_index": 0,
      "market": "total",
      "selection_side": "under",
      "line": 54.5,
      "price": -105.0,
      "canonical_buffer": 9.048966265517215,
      "required_buffer": 5,
      "minimum_branch_buffer": 6.048966265517215,
      "worst_stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154,
      "all_cases": [
        {
          "score": [
            19.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": 12.048966265517215,
          "stressed_buffer": 9.048966265517215
        },
        {
          "score": [
            22.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": 9.048966265517215,
          "stressed_buffer": 6.048966265517215
        },
        {
          "score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "buffer": 6.048966265517215,
          "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
        }
      ],
      "unresolved_high": 1,
      "unresolved_medium": 3,
      "decision": "PASS",
      "reasons": [
        "1 unresolved high risk(s)",
        "3 unresolved medium risks",
        "ON excludes unresolved medium risks"
      ],
      "independent_buffer_algebra": true,
      "pick": "Under 54.5",
      "matchup": "Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams",
      "state": "LEAN",
      "base_score": [
        25.10583479394665,
        26.345198940536136
      ],
      "adjusted_score": [
        22.10583479394665,
        23.345198940536136
      ],
      "worst_applicable_buffer": 6.048966265517215,
      "source": "https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/football/nfl/summary?event=401872994",
      "quote_requested_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.510906+00:00",
      "quote_retrieved_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.751143+00:00",
      "tier_downgrade_required": 0,
      "second_review_completed": true,
      "calibration": "No selected-market or exact-score probability inferred from point cushions.",
      "stress": {
        "adverse_points": 3,
        "minimum_total_buffer": 1,
        "same_side_every_case": true,
        "worst_buffer": 3.0489662655172154,
        "worst_case": {
          "score": [
            25.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.048966265517215,
          "adverse_score": [
            28.10583479394665,
            23.345198940536136
          ],
          "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
        },
        "scenario_count": 3,
        "all_cases": [
          {
            "score": [
              19.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 12.048966265517215,
            "adverse_score": [
              22.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": 9.048966265517215
          },
          {
            "score": [
              22.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 9.048966265517215,
            "adverse_score": [
              25.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": 6.048966265517215
          },
          {
            "score": [
              25.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "signed_buffer_for_frozen_selection": 6.048966265517215,
            "adverse_score": [
              28.10583479394665,
              23.345198940536136
            ],
            "stressed_buffer": 3.0489662655172154
          }
        ],
        "opponent_offense_check": "Selected opponent +3 for every spread case, same adverse margin swing not counted twice",
        "favorite_underdog_check": "Frozen selected side evaluated across all Palmer role and Moore availability overlap endpoints; failure does not promote opposite side."
      },
      "risk_register": [
        {
          "severity": "HIGH",
          "risk": "Buffalo nickel coverage availability",
          "detail": "Dee Alford first at nickel QUESTIONABLE, reserve Jordan Hancock on IR; Benford cleared at boundary does not establish nickel replacement. Rams Adams/Nacua and multiple TEs can stress interior coverage. Current nickel allocation unresolved; no invented opponent-point increment.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Buffalo interior defense rotation",
          "detail": "Ed Oliver OUT with Carter next at DL; Landon Jackson Q reduces other front depth. Run-fit/pressure changes can affect Rams drives, but current game rates already contain observed defense.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Rams pressure unit change",
          "detail": "Myles Garrett Sep17IR explicitly covers Bills. Young/Stewart rotation replaces edge work; Donald cleared for return after back issue. Ongoing Garrett loss partly represented in current baseline; Donald workload unknown. Separate from offensive -3.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "MEDIUM",
          "risk": "Rams safety coverage availability",
          "detail": "Quentin Lake Q, Kinchens next in official safety depth; Watson cleared reduces boundary uncertainty but does not resolve Lake duties.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": false
        },
        {
          "severity": "LOW",
          "risk": "Covered receiver role and availability branches",
          "detail": "Palmer material-role/support-only branches, Moore available/absent branches and FergusonIR -3 must all be evaluated; Bell debut has no NFL regular-season evidence.",
          "markets": [
            "spread",
            "total"
          ],
          "resolved": true,
          "gate_evidence": "All frozen cases and registered3point adverse survive"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "count": 4,
  "scope": "Provider-specific paired spread/total quotes. All role/availability/overlap endpoints frozen before prices; no new personnel estimates. Mean cushions are not calibrated probabilities.",
  "forecast_frozen_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:15.734012+00:00",
  "price_capture_utc": "2026-10-12T05:49:19.820551+00:00",
  "rankings": {
    "ON": [],
    "OFF": []
  },
  "independent_reviewer": "Independent football desk",
  "risk_assessment_note": "No personnel/source-manifest/forecast mutation. Unresolved high Buffalo nickel risk and3medium risks exclude both configurations; side also fails branch and stress buffers. Total mean cushion passes numerical tests but cannot override risk exclusions.",
  "board_scope": "NFL only; parent reconciles all-sport board. No quota filled.",
  "validation": {
    "all4_unique": true,
    "all_prices_after_freeze": true,
    "score_checksum_unchanged": true,
    "independent_buffer_algebra": true
  }
}